FOOD SUPPLY PROSPECTS FOR THE YEAR 2016 National Disaster Risk Management Commission (NDRMC) January 2015 Addis Ababa Ethiopia TABLE OF CONTENTS GLOSSARY ..................................................................................................................................................... 1 ACRONYMS ................................................................................................................................................... 2 EXCUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................... 3 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................... 11 REGIONAL SUMMARY OF 2016 FOOD SUPPLY PROSPECT ........................................................................ 12 1. AFAR ................................................................................................................................................ 12 2. OROMIA .......................................................................................................................................... 16 3. AMHARA.......................................................................................................................................... 22 4. SOMALI ............................................................................................................................................ 27 5. TIGRAY ............................................................................................................................................. 32 6. SNNPR ............................................................................................................................................. 36 7. BENSHANGUL GUMUZ .................................................................................................................... 40 8. DIRE DAWA ..................................................................................................................................... 43 9. GAMBELLA ...................................................................................................................................... 46 10. HARARI ........................................................................................................................................ 49 Annex 1: Emergency Beneficiaries & food Requirement by Woreda, Zone Region ................................ 52 2016 - Food Supply Prospect, National Disaster Risk Management Coordination Commission 0 GLOSSARY Azemera Rains from early March to early June (Tigray) Bega Dry period from October to January in meher growing areas Belg Short rainy season from February/March to June/July (National) Birkas Cemented reservoirs for rain water harvesting - (Somali Region) Chat Mildly narcotic shrub grown as cash crop Deyr Short rains from October to November /early December (Somali Region) Decade A period of 10 days Enset False Banana Elas Traditional deep wells Ganna Main rains from February to May ( (Borena and Guji zones) Gu Main rains from March to June ( Somali Region) Hagaya Short rains from October to November in Borena Zone of Oromia Region Hagaa Short dry season from July to September in deyr rain receiving zones of Somali Region HEA Household Economy Approach Karan Rains from mid-July to September in the Northern zones of Somali Region ( Jijiga and Shinile zones) Karma Main rains from July to September (Afar Region) Kebele The lowest administrative unit in the country Meher/ Kiremt Main rains from June to September in crop dependent areas Quintal A type of measurement which is equivalent to 100kgs Sepia Rains from end of October to 2nd week of November; and from 2nd dekad to 3rd dekad of January in SNNPR ( important for sweet potato crop development) Sugum Short rains ( not more than 5 days )between March and April (Afar Region) Reference Year The year in which the baseline data for Household Economy Approach (HEA) analysis is collected Woreda District, consisting of several kebeles, which are the lowest administrative unit of the Government Tsidia Rains from mid-June to end of September (Tigray) Jilal The dry season from Febraury to mid-March in Somali Region Zone Administrative unit (consisting of several weredas) 2016 - Food Supply Prospect, National Disaster Risk Management Coordination Commission 1 ACRONYMS CRS Catholic Relief Service CARE CARE Ethiopia DRMFSS Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector COOPI Italian Cooperation DPFSB Disaster Prevention and Food Security Bureau FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FEWS-Net Famine Early Warning System Network FHI/E Food for the Hunger Ethiopia GOAL Irish NGO IMC International Medical Corps IRC International Rescue Committee MoA Ministry of Agriculture MoH Ministry of Health MoWIE Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Electricity NDRMC National Disaster Risk Management Commission NGOs Non-Governmental Organizations MSF Medecins Sans Frontieres PSNP Productive Safety Net Program RWB Regional Water Breau SC-UK Save the Children United Kingdom SNNPR Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples Region UN United Nations UN/OCHA United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund WFP World Food Program UNFP United Nations Population Fund WHO World Health Organization WV World Vision 2016 - Food Supply Prospect, National Disaster Risk Management Coordination Commission 2 EXCUTIVE SUMMARY AFAR The poor performance of 2015 karma rain and the cumulative effects of rain failure in the previous seasons affected regeneration of pasture, browse and recharging of water sources such as rivers, hand-dug wells, elas and ponds. The pasture and browse condition has been very poor in all zones in the Region. The regeneration capacity of major grazing and browse reserves in the Region icluding Halydege (Amibara), Duba (Chifra), Halayten (Erebti), and Teru rangelands has been highly reduced by the recurrent dry condition, overgrazing due to high livestock influx from neighboring areas (within and out of the Region), prosopis invasion and land degradation. Livestock migration out of the Region was limited owing to the similarity of the pasture and browse condition in the neighboring regions. The livestock body condition specially that of cattle and sheep is severely deteriorating. There is liitle or no milk production in many woredas. Livestock herd size per household is decreasing as a result of shortage of pasture and browse for an extended period of time (four seasons in most of the areas), livestock death, reduced fertility rates and culling infant animals in order to save the life of the mothers as a coping strategy (In Zone 1 and 3). Besides, irrigation based crop cultivation failed due to shortage of rain and reduced volume of rivers and absence of flood water from Tigray highlands. The overall supply of maize to the local markets has been poor in all zones while the supply of livestock increased highly. The demand for livestock has also been poor due to poor livestock body condition. This consequently affected livestock price making the terms of trade unfavorable to pastoral and agro-pastoral communities. Moreover there are limited options as other sources of income for pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in some parts of the region. As a result, 439,218 people will likely require emergency relief food assistance in 2016. OROMIA Significant production reduction is expected in East& West Hararghe, Arsi, West Arsi, Bale, North Shewa, Borena, Guji and East Shewa zones of the region due to failure of 2015 belg 2016 - Food Supply Prospect, National Disaster Risk Management Coordination Commission 3 season and poor meher rains. Income from the major sources: crop, livestock, and labour have declined and is continued declining. Livestock income reduced due to low livestock demand and price and consequently household purchasing power reduced and access to food limited by low terms of trade especially in pastoral and agro- pastoral areas. Crop failure destabilizes food availability and income from sales of crops. Wage income which is most important for poor and very poor households reduced due to low job opportunity and low wage rate and it is not expected to improve before the next planting season. Decline in coffee price and poor production of chat has also affected income from cash crop in areas known to grow coffee and chat as major source of household income. High staple food price due to failure of belg season and anticipated below normal production also affecting purchasing power of market dependent households especially poor and very poor. Overall, a total of 3,755,347 people in 15 zones have food gaps and need emergency assistance for the period of six months starting from January 2016. AMHARA The food security prospect in in the eastern and north part of the region will be poor attributed to the poor performance of the two consecutive rainy seasons, the belg and meher 2015. The poor belg rain affected the cultivation and production of long cycle and high yield crops such as maize and sorgum. Subsequently, the meher rain started 4 weeks late and ceased early leaving very short growing period affecting the flowering and seed setting stage of meher crops. Hence crop production was low as compared to the plan and 2014/15. Livestock production was also affected equally as pasture availability from grazing areas and crop residue was low. The major other sources of income, labor