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Evaluation of Two Routes for Submarine Cables West of the Westman Islands

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Evaluation of Two Routes for Submarine Cables West of the Westman Islands PATH ASSESSMENT GROUP MINISTRY OF TRANSPORT KJARTAN THORS AND PÁLL EINARSSON: EVALUATION OF TWO ROUTES FOR SUBMARINE CABLES WEST OF THE WESTMAN ISLANDS FEBRUARY 2007 KJARTAN THORS JARÐFRÆÐISTOFU KJARTANS THORS EHF 1. Introduction This report is a contribution to planning for the laying of a submarine cable from Iceland to the British Isles. At present (February 2007), the cable is projected to land on the Icelandic mainland in proximity to the Westman Islands area. The Path Assessment Group, commissioned by the Icelandic Ministry of Transport, is responsible for recommending a route for the cable. Further research will result from the recommendation of a route. This overview, created at the request of the Path Assessment Group, is an appraisal of the strengths and weaknesses of two possible routes leading southward from the mainland south coast, west of the Westman Islands. The initial plan called for a cable landing at Landeyjar or possibly Þykkvabær. A later additional assessment was requested projecting a landing near Þorlákshöfn. Threats from both natural and human-induced factors were considered in the recommendation of a route for a submarine cable. These include: a. Glacial lake outburst flooding from Katla (or Eyjafjallajökull) and current turbidity b. Underwater volcanic eruptions c. Commercial fishing using otter-trawl/seine nets d. Contour and composition of seafloor (showing risk of a suspended cable and necessitated ploughing) e. Marine currents The authors of this report are: Dr. Páll Einarsson, Professor Dr. Kjartan Thors Institute of Geological Sciences Jarðfræðistofu Kjartans Thors ehf University of Iceland Borgartúni 18 Sturlugötu 7 105 Reykjavík 101 Reykjavík , 2. Outlining of route The reviewed routes are shown in Chart 1. The commonality shared by the two routes is a path over the continental shelf west of Heimaey. The eastern route lies to the north between Geirfuglasker and Súlnasker towards Þrídrangar. However, this route turns towards the coast after passing east of Þrídrangar. If the landing in Þorlákshöfn is viable, the sea route would turn north of Þrídrangar and follow the coast towards Þorlákshöfn. The western route lies west of Surtsey (and Skötuhryggur) running to the north and turning towards the landing point at Rángársandur. The route potentially could follow the coast towards Þorlákshöfn. The threats posed to a submarine cable along these routes were assessed in determination of a preferable recommendation. The benefits of these two routes over others, such as one transecting Selvogsbanki to Þorlákshöfn, are discussed as well. 3. Threats 3.1. Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) 3.1.1. Frequency of GLOF’s and affected regions Consequences of GLOF’s are clearly evident in their impact on seafloor and submarine cables to the south of Iceland. These effects extend further south than the immediate coastal area. Recent multi-beam sonar surveys show fluvial deposition on the seafloor extending from Iceland (see Anon., 2004). Neritic-zone depositions have origins traceable to floods from Katla and from Skeiðarársandur. Depositional paths from Katla are trifurcated: one flowing from Markarfljót, another from Sólheimasandur, and the last and largest from Mýrdalssandur. Chart 1. Navigational chart for the western Westman Islands area. They combine into one channel offshore. Volcanic eruptions in Katla are clearly the single largest risk factor present in laying submarine cable through this region. A statistical chronology of eruptions in Katla was made by Jónas Elíasson et. al. (2006) based on historical data from the past 1 100 to 1 200 ybp and fluvial deposition from Markarfljot over the last 8000 years. Under a simple model with random distribution of eruptions, a 93% chance results for an eruption occurring in the next 10 years. However, the likelihood of an eruptive event in the next 10 years is reduced to 20% taking into account the proportionality of the interval between eruptions to the size of the previous eruption. This reduced risk stems from the last large eruption in 1918 being unusually significant and, consequently, an extended intermittent period should result. The study by Jonas, et al., may not have considered recent data on the stability of the volcano. Such records elevate the eruptive risks as greater than that indicated by statistical models. Seismic activity has increased in frequency around Katla, measurements indicate a slow expansion of the magma chamber under the caldera, and increased ground temperatures (Sturkell, et.al., 2007) have been recorded. Such Indicators favour an eruptive event with subsequent GLOF within in the submarine cable’s lifetime. 3.1.2. GLOF and turbid currents In the report, Kötluhlaup og sæstrengir, prepared by Jarðfræðistofu Kjartans Thors ehf for Síminn in 2004, turbid currents are described as resultant from unstable masses of moving sediment mixing with overlying water and forming a liquid layer of suspended particles with a high specific-gravity. Turbid currents move down inclines potentially reaching significant velocity (tens of kilometers per hour). Such particle streams present significant erosive capacity and pose a potential risk to submarine cables. The authors submit that turbid currents, flowing from Reynisdjúp or Álinn and Háfadjúp, present an elevated certainty for damage to the CANTAT-3 cable at locations along the slope of the south-coast continental shelf. This would apply to other submarine cables in this area as well. 3.1.3. The effect of GLOF on cable placement A cable between Ireland and Iceland, landing on the southern Icelandic coast between the Westman Islands and Þorlákshöfn, would directly intersect the flow of turbid currents originating in Iceland. Such intersections would likely occur if the cable were located significantly further south from the coast than the present CANTAT-3 route. However, the velocity of turbidity currents will diminish with an increase of distance from the coast. The most southerly route possible should be given to such a cable, ideally buried where turbidity currents flow. 3.2. Volcanic eruptions 3.2.1. Frequency of volcanic eruptions in the Westman Islands A direct volcanic effect on submarine cables is implausible unless located in an active volcanic region. For the routes under consideration, The Westman Islands area is the only region of volcanism. The following threat-factors are important in evaluating the probability of volcanic activity in that region adversely affecting a submarine cable: 1. The Westman Islands constitute a young and underdeveloped volcanic region, practically in its birth. Volcanic activity is relatively dispersed, but does roughly align along an axis of passing through Heimaey in the direction of Surtsey. 2. The volcanic activity in historic times, that is to say in the last 10 000 ybp, has been rare. This low frequency of eruptive activity presents insufficient data for meaningful statistical analysis. All statistical data should be taken with a degree of scepticism. At best, the data only offer the probable magnitude of an eruption. Volcanic eruptions in the Westman Islands and surroundings have been taking place since the last glacial maximum. The area is active, as the recent eruptions in Surtsey and Heimaey attest. In a 1979 publication, Sveinn Jakobsson describes the activity of the Westman Island region in recent times (i.e. in the last ten thousand years). In the essay, he lists volcanic regions that he believes to have been active in this period: Stórhöfði, Sæfell-Helgafell and Eldfell on Heimaey, inclusive of Bjarnarey, Elliðaey, Suðurey, Álsey, Brandur, Hellisey and Súlnasker. He is includes Faxasker, Smáeyjar, Geirfuglasker, Þrídrangar and Einadrangi as formed by recent eruptions along with Surtsey, Syrtlingur, Jólnir and Surtla. A number of the later eruptions, if grouped together, were at least partially terrestrial. An analysis (Sveinn Jakobsson, 1982) of seafloor irregularities proximal to the Westman Islands added other volcanic hot spots to this list. These are Skötuhryggur west of Surtsey, an anonymous peak south-east of Surtsey, Rófuboði to the north-east of Elliðaey, and another anonymous peak in Háfadjúp. Based on the above, eruptions have occurred recently in at least 20 locations in the high- activity region by the Westman Islands. Sveinn Jakobsson was, however, able to show that the insensitivity of volcanic activity in flow-volume was relatively small contrasted to other volcanic regions in Iceland. His interpretation was that volcanism occurred episodically between long intervals; the eruptions of Surtsey and Heimaey occurred after 5 000 to 6 000 years of dormancy. Chart 2 depicts locations where eruptions are believed to have taken place in 10 000 ybp. The chart also shows the two cable paths in question. 3.2.2. Probability of eruptions along cable paths We calculated the probability for a submarine cable damage by multiplying the total probability of volcanic activity in the whole of the Westman Island region (Pv) by the ratio of surface area of the region affecting the cable (Fs) over the surface area of the region of volcanic activity (Fv). PS = PV (FS /FV) The surface area of the cable-affected region was obtained by multiplying the length of the segments crossing active regions by the width of that region assumed to be affected by an eruption. The Surtsey eruptions, as an example, have a width of approximately 4 km (see Norrman and Erlingsson, 1992). This is of course a rough estimate. The surface area of the region of volcanic activity is estimated by drawing a polygon encompassing known eruptions in recent times according to Sveinn Jakobsson (1982). This yields an Fv of 800 km2. The length of the easternmost path through the region is around 25 km. Fs is therefore 100 km2. The probability of an eruption within the affected region of the cable is then one-eighth of the probability of an eruption taking place in the whole region. This is again a rough estimate. For example, the model assumes that the eruptions are evenly distributed throughout the region, which is a considerable statistical compromise.
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