DARBY REPORT #295 VICTORY TO JOHN HOWARD Tue 12 Oct 04

THE DARBY REPORT GUIDE to the 9 October 2004 GENERAL ELECTION

These tables tell part of the story of the political heroes whose efforts as candidates saved from the threat of Latham Labor, and ensured that our Nation will continue to enjoy wise government by the Liberal- Nationals Coalition led by Prime Minister the Hon John Howard MP and Deputy Prime Minister the Hon John Anderson MP. Figures, taken from the AEC Website, are not final, and may be updated from time to time. To view any desired section, click on the page number.

ALL COALITION CANDIDATES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER 2

ALL COALITION CANDIDATES IN ORDER OF STATE AND CANDIDATURE Australian Capital Territory 8 8 Northern Territory 9 Queensland 10 11 Tasmania 12 12 Western Australia 13

COALITION HOUSE OF REPS CANDIDATES IN ORDER OF T-P-P PERCENTAGE Coalition seats won by more than 20% 15 Coalition seats won by 20% or less 15 Coalition seats won by 10% or less 16 Coalition seats won by 6% or less 17 Coalition seats won by 5% or less 18 Coalition seats won by 4% or less 18 Coalition seats won by 3% or less 18 Coalition seats won by 2% or less 18 Coalition seats won by 1% or less 18 Seats lost by 1% or less 18 Seats lost by 2% or less 19 Seats lost by 3% or less 19 Seats lost by 4% or less 19 Seats lost by 5% or less 19 Seats lost by 6% or less 19 Seats lost by 10% or less 19 Seats lost by 20% or less 20 Seats lost by more than 20% 20

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES TOTAL VOTES AND AEC SUMMARY OF SEATS 21

GLENN DRUERY’S PREDICTION OF SENATE NUMBERS 21 “The Coalition will have control of the Senate without the need to seek minor party assistance”.

PLEASE SEND CORRECTIONS TO [email protected]

Darby Report 295 of 12 October 2004 Page 1

ALL COALITION CANDIDATES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER Candidate Candidature Primary Swing Two-party-preferred

Hon BEc LLB MA MP NSW Warringah 54.77 3.32 60.29 Member for Warringah, Minister for Health Senator the Hon Eric Abetz BA LLB Tas +Senate Special Minister of State Senator-elect Judith Adams WA +Senate The Hon John Anderson MA MP (Nats) NSW Gwydir 61.82 9.19 68.08 Deputy Prime Minister, Member for Gwydir The Hon Kevin Andrews BA LLM Vic Menzies 56.52 3.19 60.39 Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations, Member for Menzies The Hon Larry Anthony BComm MP (Nats) NSW Richmond 45.57 .82 49.35 Minister for Children and Youth Affairs, Member for Richmond Mr Costa Asarloglou BA NSW Chifley 29.10 3.58 36.65 Ms Maisie Austin NT Lingiari 37.27 -1.91 40.90 The Hon Fran Bailey DipT MP Vic McEwen 51.42 4.86 55.93 Minister for Employment Services and Minister Assisting the Minister for Defence, Member for McEwen Mrs Robyn Bain (Nats) NSW +Senate Hon BA MBA MP NSW Cook 58.35 2.13 64.05 Member for Cook Mr James Baker (Nats) Qld +Senate Mr Mark Baker BEd BComm DipT Tas Braddon 47.68 8.51 51.37 Member-elect for Braddon Mr Bob Baldwin MP NSW Paterson 51.8 +11.89 56.52 Member for Paterson Ms. Josephine Barfield BBusMan MIntRel NSW Newcastle 35.31 4.94 40.00 Senator Guy Barnett LLB LLM AICD Tas +Senate Mrs Belinda Barnier ACT Canberra 36.81 2.77 40.09 Mr Phillip Barresi BA GradDip MP Vic Deakin 50.45 3.38 55.25 Member for Deakin Mr Kerry Bartlett MEc DipEd MP NSW Macquarie 53.88 +2.88 59.36 Member for Macquarie Mr Bruce Billson BBus MP Vic Dunkley 55.48 5.75 59.12 Member for Dunkley Mr Simon Birmingham SA Hindmarsh 46.02 0.95 49.83 Hon Bronwyn Bishop MP NSW Mackellar 57.39 -0.25 66.07 Member for Mackellar Hon Julie Bishop LLB MP WA Curtin 60.05 4.89 64.93 Minister for Ageing, Member for Curtin Ms Beth Black (Nats) NSW Hunter 26.84 -0.66 36.16 Mr Paul Blanch LLB NSW Calare 15.81 15.81 27.18 Mr Alan Boulton Qld Lilley 40.91 0.85 44.41 Ms Sue Boyce BA(Hons) MBus FAICD Qld +Senate Mr Mike Boyd (Nats) Qld Rankin 968 Sen George Brandis BA (Hons) LLB (Hons) (Qld) BCL Qld +Senate (Oxon) Mr Russell Broadbent Vic McMillan Vic 43.40 14.27 55.46 Member-elect for McMillan The Hon Mal Brough MP Qld Longman 51.81 6.58 57.52 Minister for Revenue and Assistant Treasurer, Member for Longman

Darby Report 295 of 12 October 2004 Page 2 ALL COALITION CANDIDATES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER Candidate Candidature Primary Swing Two-party-preferred Hon Alan Cadman MP NSW Mitchell 64.79 1.53 70.95 Member for Mitchell Hon Ross Cameron BEc LLB MP NSW Parramatta 43.97 -1.97 48.81 Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasurer, Member for Parramatta Senator the Hon Ian Campbell WA +Senate Minister for the Environment and Heritage Manager of Government Business in the Senate The Hon Ian Causley MP (Nats) NSW Page 48.45 6.60 54.14 Deputy Speaker, Member for Page Mr Steven Ciobo BComm LLM MP Qld Moncrieff 64.54 11.05 70.15 Member for Moncrieff Mr John Cobb MP (Nats) NSW Parkes 60.40 9.30 64.11 Member for Parkes The Hon BA LLB (Hons) MP Vic Higgins 54.85 1.66 58.34 , Member for Higgins Mrs Wendy D Creighton BAppSc Qld Rankin 36.75 -4.02 46.83 Mr Peter Curtis DipB&CM Vic Lalor 37.57 4.52 41.46 Mr Dino De Marchi LLB Vic +Senate Mr Jerry Dimitroulis DipM Vic 24.04 -1.00 34.95 Mr Michael Darby NSW +Senate Mr Kurt Darcey NSW Charlton 34.53 1.22 41.26 The Hon Alexander Downer BA(Hons) MP SA Mayo 53.63 0 63.19 Foreign Minister, Member for Mayo Mr James Doyle (Nats) Qld Kennedy 23.71 10.64 Mrs Trish Draper BA MP SA Makin 44.69 -1.03 50.66 Dr Conrad D'Souza MPharm PhD Vic Maribyrnong 37.22 7.23 40.22 Mr Peter Dutton BBus MP Qld Dickson 52.19 6.65 57.82 Member for Dickson Mr Phil Edman WA Brand 40.06 16.09 45.27 Senator the Hon Chris Ellison BJuris, LLB WA +Senate Mrs Kaye Elson MP Qld Forde 55.09 5.88 63.13 Member for Forde Mr Warren Entsch MP Qld Leichhardt 53.42 4.66 60.04 Member for Leichhardt Mr Pat Farmer MP NSW Macarthur 54.59 3.80 59.50 Member for Macarthur Mr David Fawcett BSc MBA SA Wakefield 43.62 4.54 50.37 Member-elect for Wakefield Senator Alan Ferguson SA +Senate Mr Michael Ferguson BAppSc BEd Tas Bass 49.33 7.88 52.67 Member-elect for Bass Senator-elect Concetta Fierravanti-Wells NSW +Senate Mr Henry Finnis GradDipAppSc Tas Franklin 38.99 1.43 42.56 Mr Jim Forbes BEd DipTAS Vic +Senate Mr John Forrest MSc BE DipCivEng MP (Nats) Vic Mallee 68.82 15.62 75.05 Member for Mallee Ms Teresa Gambaro BBus MP Qld Petrie 52.42 4.16 53.48 Member for Petrie Mrs Joanna Gash CBE MP NSW Gilmore 54.19 -1.92 59.75 Member for Gilmore Mr Petro Georgiou BA(Hons) MP Vic Kooyong 54.28 -0.80 58.96 Member for Kooyong Cr Kevin Gibbins Vic Bendigo 45.55 6.03 49.10

Darby Report 295 of 12 October 2004 Page 3 ALL COALITION CANDIDATES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER Candidate Candidature Primary Swing Two-party-preferred Mr Adam Giles MBA ACT Fraser 33.49 2.71 36.59

Mr Geoff Gill (Nats) WA +Senate Dr Stewart Gillies BE(Hons) PhD Qld +Senate Mr Max Gratton BA Vic Batman 25.57 3.84 28.04 Mr Roger Gray BA BEc MBus MBA NSW Banks 42.25 6.46 48.93 Bernadette Gregg (CLP) NT +Senate Mr Robert Griffith (Nats) NSW Calare 13.16 -7.37 n/a Mr Barry Haase MP WA Kalgoorlie 44.89 2.29 55.66 Member for Kalgoorlie Mr Blair Hamilton Vic Wills 28.24 2.77 32.69 The Hon Gary Hardgrave BCom DipMR MP Qld Moreton 48.95 1.74 53.83 Minister for Citizenship & Multicultural Affairs and Minister Assisting the Prime Minister, Member for Moreton Mrs Leigh Hardingham (Nats) WA O'Connor 5,628 2.30 Mr Stephen Hartney DipMEchEng CPE MIEA Vic Chisolm 43.42 -0.20 47.04 Mr Luke Hartsuyker MP (Nats) NSW Cowper 50.47 20.58 56.42 Member for Cowper Mr David Hawker BEng MP Vic Wannon 57.75 5.53 62.17 Member for Wannon Mr Norman Henning (Nats) WA +Senate Mr Stuart Henry WA Hasluck 45.71 6.38 51.78 Member-elect for Hasluck Hon BA LLB MP NSW North 56.25 -0.71 59.75 Minister for Small Business & Tourism, Member for North Sydney Hon The Hon. John Howard LLB MP NSW Bennelong 49.32 -3.75 53.66 Prime Minister of Australia, Member for Bennelong Mrs Kay Hull MP (Nats) NSW Riverina 66.72 5.27 70.40 Member for Riverina Senator Gary Humphries BA LLB ACT +Senate Mr Greg Hunt MA LLB(Hons) MP Vic Flinders 58.18 6.66 60.90 Member for Flinders Mr Terry Inglis BA (Hons) Dip Ed MEnvM MBA SA Port 31.62 4.91 34.00 Mr Woody Inman BIntRel Vic Jagajaga 42.33 1.86 45.59 Mrs Susan Jennison MA GrDipIS Vic Gorton 31.99 7.96 34.45 Dr BAppSc MSc PhD WA Tangney 54.03 4.22 61.79 Member-elect for Tangney Mr Michael Johnson BA LLB MP Qld Ryan 55.01 6.52 60.53 Member for Ryan Mr Barnaby Joyce (Nats) Qld +Senate Senator-elect for Queensland Hon David Jull MP Qld Fadden 59.80 6.42 65.44 Member for Fadden Mr Michael Keenan MPhil BA(Hons) WA Stirling 47.29 7.10 51.71 Member-elect for Stirling Mrs De-Anne Kelly MP (Nats) Qld Dawson 48.36 -1.86 60.66 Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Transport and Regional Services, Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Trade, Member for Dawson Hon Jackie Kelly LLB MP NSW Lindsay 48.15 1.22 54.24 Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister, Member for Lindsay Mr Trevor Khan (Nats) NSW New England 18.98 -19.92 28.71 Mr Bruce King Vic Corio 40.03 3.65 43.92

Darby Report 295 of 12 October 2004 Page 4 ALL COALITION CANDIDATES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER Candidate Candidature Primary Swing Two-party-preferred Ms Stephanie Kokkolis CertFP NSW Grayndler 23.94 1.01 26.88

Mr Lucas Kostadinoski Vic Scullin 30.55 4.85 34.88 Miss Di Kuntschik BA LLB Qld Capricornia 12.62 -1.90 Dr Andrew Laming MPubAdm MB BS DipO&G DipOphthS Qld Bowman 50.78 3.38 58.96 MPhil MPubP RACS Member-elect for Bowman Mr John Larter NSW Cunningham 28.49 Sue Lawrie SA +Senate Mr John Lever (Nats) Qld Capricornia 27.11 2.74 44.48 Mrs Sussan Ley BEcon MP NSW Farrer 63.26 25.60 69.71 Member for Farrer Mr Peter Lindsay MP Qld Herbert 49.68 6.74 56.18 Member for Herbert Mrs Dianne Livett Vic Calwell 37.40 8.83 41.60 The Hon Jim Lloyd MP Qld Robertson 53.57 +2.77 56.74 Minister for Local Government, Territories and Roads, Member for Robertson Mr Scot MacDonald AssocDipFM BFinAdm NSW New England 9.48 Mr Mark Majewski NSW Blaxland 30.51 4.60 36.59 Mrs Louise Markus BA NSW Greenway 44.29 7.35 50.56 Member-elect for Greenway Miss Jennifer Marriner Vic Hotham 38.63 3.53 39.01 Sen Brett Mason BA LLB(Hons) MPhil PhD Qld Senate Miss Elizabeth Matuschka Vic Ballarat 44.95 2.83 48.02 Mrs Margaret May DipBusAdmin MP Qld McPherson 58.97 4.08 63.89 Member for McPherson Mr Stewart McArthur MA MP Vic Corangamite 51.96 4.80 55.13 Member for Corangamite Mr David McConnell BBus Vic Gellibrand 31.13 4.94 34.55 Senator Julian McGauran BEc CPA (Nats) Vic +Senate The Hon Peter McGauran MP (Nats) Vic Gippsland 49.23 19.50 58.02 Minister for Science, Member for Gippsland Ms Bridget McKenzie BEd BAppSc (Nats) Vic McMillan 9.28 -7.31 Ms Sarah McMahon BComm LLB NSW Reid 30.47 7.99 36.88 Mr Michael Medway DipBus NSW Werriwa 23,147 1.57 40.38 Senator the Hon Nick Minchin BEc LLB SA +Senate Minister for Finance and Administration Ian Morison BEc LLB LLM ACT +Senate Mr Bruce Morrow NSW Barton 39.17 1.44 42.10 The Hon Judi Moylan DipREM BEd MP WA Pearce 53.90 9.07 63.02 Member for Pearce Mr Andrew Murfin DipAPH&CA WA Swan 44.40 5.42 49.89 Mr Gary Nairn BSurv MP NSW Eden-Monaro 48.17 7.09 51.66 Member for Eden-Monaro Senator-elect Fiona Nash BA (Nats) NSW +Senate Dr MB BS MP NSW Bradfield 63.39 1.21 68.66 Minister for Education, Science & Training, Member for Bradfield Mr Paul Neville MP (Nats) Qld Hinkler 46.65 6.04 54.21 Member for Hinkler Mr Eugene Notermans AssocDipM&IE Vic +Senate Ms Sophie Panopoulos BCom LLB LLM MP Vic Indi 62.58 21.50 66.39 Member for Indi

Darby Report 295 of 12 October 2004 Page 5 ALL COALITION CANDIDATES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER Candidate Candidature Primary Swing Two-party-preferred Senator-elect Stephen Parry MAIE Tas +Senate

Mr Erick Pastoor Tas Denison 32.77 1.18 37.03 Ms Janelle Payne BA LLB GradDipLP Qld Griffith 37.32 -0.42 41.10 Mr Chris Pearce BBus MP Vic Aston 58.57 7.91 63.02 Member for Aston Mr Nick Prassas BComm DipLaw NSW Kingsford 36.25 1.99 40.92 Smith Hon Geoff Prosser MP WA Forrest 54.05 8.02 60.90 Member for Forrest The Hon Chris Pyne LLB GradDipLP MP SA Sturt 51.65 0.97 56.58 Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Family and Community Services, Member for Sturt Mr Ben Quin BA(Mil) Tas Lyons 42.55 6.74 46.31 Mrs Angela Randall AssocDipMRA BAppSC GradDipEd Vic Bruce 42.78 3.30 45.98 MPubH Mr DipT MP WA Canning 52.97 11.13 59.63 Member for Canning Mr Kym Richardson DipPM DipESM SA Kingston 43.59 3.82 49.81 Mr Andrew Robb BEc(Hons) DipAgrSc Vic Goldstein 55.88 3.15 59.67 Senator-elect the Hon Michael Ronaldson LLB Vic +Senate Mr Joe Ross (Nats) Qld Bowman 3.90 Hon Philip Ruddock BA LLB MP NSW Berowra 55.68 -2.89 61.51 Attorney-General of the Commonwealth of Australia Member for Berowra Mr Alby Schultz MP NSW Hume 57.60 4.61 64.15 Hon Bruce Scott MP (Nats) Qld Maranoa 59.23 6.12 69.37 Member for Maranoa Senator Nigel Scullion (CLP) NT Senate Mr Pat Secker BEc MP SA Barker 53.34 -2.78 70.11 Member for Barker Mr Jeff Shelley DipDM Vic Isaacs 43.18 5.12 48.29 Mr Michael Shevers BA(Hons) NSW Sydney 27.77 2.33 32.65 Mr John Sidoti NSW Lowe 42.74 0.78 46.38 Maj BA BSc LLB BBus MBA JP(Qual) WA Cowan 44.62 8.50 49.21 Julie Sippo (Nats) SA +Senate Mr Peter Slipper BA LLB MP Qld Fisher 55.95 3.93 63.09 Member for Fisher Mr Daniel Smith BSc BBus LLB MBA Qld Oxley 33.28 1.42 39.70 Mr Tony Smith BA (Hons) BCom MP Vic Casey 56.27 4.98 61.30 Member for Casey Mr Daniel Smith BSc LLB BBus MBA JP(Qual) Qld Oxley 33.40 1.54 39.81 The Hon Alex Somlyay BEc MP Qld Fairfax 52.23 4.31 60.58 Member for Fairfax Michelle Steck WA +Senate Dr Andrew Southcott MB BS BEc MBA SA Boothby 50.56 2.42 55.16 Mr David Southwick BBus GradDipM Vic Melbourne Ports 41.88 2.17 44.86 Hon Dr Sharman Stone MA PhD MP Vic Murray 65.83 1.79 74.94 Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for the Environment & Heritage, Member for Murray Dr Ingrid Tall MB BS DipComm Qld Brisbane 39.82 -1.39 45.96 Mr Paul Teiwes Vic Holt 42.59 6.46 47.82 Mr Cameron Thompson MP Qld Blair 52.58 8.67 61.33

Darby Report 295 of 12 October 2004 Page 6 ALL COALITION CANDIDATES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER Candidate Candidature Primary Swing Two-party-preferred Mr Ken Ticehurst DipCoyDir MP NSW Dobell 49.91 5.98 55.75 Member for Dobell Senator (until 30 Jun 04) John Tierney BEc DipEd Med PhD NSW +Senate Mr David Tollner AICM MP NT Solomon 48.76 6.95 52.51 Mr Keith Topolski NSW Watson 30.81 2.69 33.83 Senator the Hon Judith Troeth BA DipEd Vic +Senate Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Senator-elect Dr Russell Trood LLB MSc PhD Qld +Senate The Hon Warren Truss MP (Nats) Qld Wide Bay 47.14 13.57 62.83 Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Member for Wide Bay Mrs Dell Tschanter NSW Shortland 35.89 1.22 40.26 The Hon MP WA O’Connor 53.21 3.73 70.41 Member for O'Connor Mr BA LLB BCivilLaws (Oxon) NSW Wentworth 42.07 55.47 Member-elect for Wentworth The Hon MP (Nats) NSW Lyne 56.31 3.01 62.89 Minister for Trade, Member for Lyne The Hon Danna Vale BA LLB MP NSW Hughes 55.43 1.82 61.02 Minister for Veterans' Affairs, Member for Hughes Senator the Hon Amanda Vanstone BA LLB GradDipLPrac SA +Senate Minister for Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs, Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for Reconciliation Mr Ross Vasta BComm Qld Bonner 43.90 1.51 50.17 Member-elect for Bonner John Venus (Nats) SA +Senate Mr Barry Wakelin MP SA Grey 56.17 1.69 63.40 Member for Grey Dr Mal Washer MB BS MP WA Moore 55.68 6.69 60.82 Member for Moore Ian Willcourt (Nats) SA +Senate Maj Nick Withycombe MDSS, GradDipMgt (Nats) Qld Brisbane 2.95 1.13 Mr Jason Wood MAppSc Vic La Trobe 51.02 4.48 55.14 The Hon Trish Worth RN MP SA Adelaide 45.05 +0.58 48.23 Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Health and Ageing, Member for Adelaide Mr Carmelo Zagsami WA Fremantle 35.82 5.42 42.01

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Darby Report 295 of 12 October 2004 Page 7

ALL COALITION CANDIDATES IN ORDER OF STATE AND CANDIDATURE Candidature Candidate Primary Swing Two-party-preferred

AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY ACT +Senate Senator Gary Humphries BA LLB ACT +Senate Ian Morison BEc LLB LLM ACT Canberra Mrs Belinda Barnier 36.81 2.77 40.09 ACT Fraser Mr Adam Giles MBA 33.49 2.71 36.59 NEW SOUTH WALES NSW +Senate Mrs Robyn Bain (Nats) NSW +Senate Mr Michael Darby NSW +Senate Senator-elect Concetta Fierravanti-Wells NSW +Senate Senator-elect Fiona Nash BA (Nats) NSW +Senate Senator (until 30 June 2004) John Tierney BEc DipEd Med PhD NSW Banks Mr Roger Gray BA BEc MBus MBA 42.25 6.46 48.93 NSW Barton Mr Bruce Morrow 39.17 1.44 42.10 NSW Bennelong Hon The Hon. John Howard LLB MP 49.32 -3.75 53.66 Prime Minister of Australia Member for Bennelong NSW Berowra Hon Philip Ruddock BA LLB MP 55.68 -2.89 61.51 Attorney-General of the Commonwealth of Australia Member for Berowra NSW Blaxland Mr Mark Majewski 30.51 4.60 36.59 NSW Bradfield Dr Brendan Nelson MB BS MP 63.39 1.21 68.66 Minister for Education, Science & Training Member for Bradfield NSW Calare Mr Paul Blanch LLB 15.81 15.81 27.18 NSW Calare Mr Robert Griffith (Nats) 13.16 -7.37 n/a NSW Charlton Mr Kurt Darcey 34.53 1.22 41.26 NSW Chifley Mr Costa Asarloglou BA 29.10 3.58 36.65 NSW Cook Hon Bruce Baird BA MBA MP 58.35 2.13 64.05 Member for Cook NSW Cowper Mr Luke Hartsuyker MP (Nats) 50.47 20.58 56.42 Member for Cowper NSW Mr John Larter 28.49 Cunningham NSW Dobell Mr Ken Ticehurst DipCoyDir MP 49.91 5.98 55.75 Member for Dobell NSW Eden- Mr Gary Nairn BSurv MP 48.17 7.09 51.66 Monaro Member for Eden-Monaro NSW Farrer Mrs Sussan Ley BEcon MP 63.26 25.60 69.71 Member for Farrer NSW Gilmore Mrs Joanna Gash CBE MP 54.19 -1.92 59.75 Member for Gilmore NSW Grayndler Ms Stephanie Kokkolis CertFP 23.94 1.01 26.88 NSW Greenway Mrs Louise Markus BA 44.29 7.35 50.56 Member-elect for Greenway NSW Gwydir The Hon John Anderson MA MP (Nats) 61.82 9.19 68.08 Deputy Prime Minister Member for Gwydir NSW Hughes The Hon Danna Vale BA LLB MP 55.43 1.82 61.02 Minister for Veterans' Affairs Member for Hughes Darby Report 295 of 12 October 2004 Page 8 ALL COALITION CANDIDATES IN ORDER OF STATE AND CANDIDATURE Candidature Candidate Primary Swing Two-party-preferred NSW Hume Mr Alby Schultz MP 57.60 4.61 64.15

NSW Hunter Ms Beth Black (Nats) 26.84 -0.66 36.16 NSW Kingsford Mr Nick Prassas BComm DipLaw 36.25 1.99 40.92 Smith NSW Lindsay Hon Jackie Kelly LLB MP 48.15 1.22 54.24 Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister Member for Lindsay NSW Lowe Mr John Sidoti 42.74 0.78 46.38 NSW Lyne The Hon Mark Vaile MP (Nats) 56.31 3.01 62.89 Minister for Trade Member for Lyne NSW Macarthur Mr Pat Farmer MP 54.59 3.80 59.50 Member for Macarthur NSW Mackellar Hon Bronwyn Bishop MP 57.39 -0.25 66.07 Member for Mackellar NSW Macquarie Mr Kerry Bartlett MEc DipEd MP 53.88 +2.88 59.36 Member for Macquarie NSW Mitchell Hon Alan Cadman MP 64.79 1.53 70.95 Member for Mitchell NSW New Mr Trevor Khan (Nats) 18.98 -19.92 28.71 England NSW New Mr Scot MacDonald AssocDipFM BFinAdm 9.48 England NSW Newcastle Ms. Josephine Barfield BBusMan MIntRel 35.31 4.94 40.00 NSW North Hon Joe Hockey BA LLB MP 56.25 -0.71 59.75 Sydney Minister for Small Business and Tourism Member for North Sydney NSW Page The Hon Ian Causley MP (Nats) 48.45 6.60 54.14 Deputy Speaker Member for Page NSW Parkes Mr John Cobb MP (Nats) 60.40 9.30 64.11 Member for Parkes NSW Hon Ross Cameron BEc LLB MP 43.97 -1.97 48.81 Parramatta Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasurer Member for Parramatta NSW Paterson Mr Bob Baldwin MP 51.8 +11.89 56.52 Member for Paterson NSW Reid Ms Sarah McMahon BComm LLB 30.47 7.99 36.88 NSW Richmond The Hon Larry Anthony BComm MP (Nats) 45.29 .54 49.11 Minister for Children and Youth Affairs Member for Richmond NSW Riverina Mrs Kay Hull MP (Nats) 66.72 5.27 70.40 Member for Riverina NSW Shortland Mrs Dell Tschanter 35.89 1.22 40.26 NSW Sydney Mr Michael Shevers BA(Hons) 27.77 2.33 32.65 NSW Warringah Hon Tony Abbott BEc LLB MA MP 54.77 3.32 60.29 Member for Warringah Minister for Health NSW Watson Mr Keith Topolski 30.81 2.69 33.83 NSW Wentworth Mr Malcolm Turnbull BA LLB BCivilLaws (Oxon) 42.07 55.47 Member-elect for Wentworth NSW Werriwa Mr Michael Medway DipBus 23,147 1.57 40.38

NORTHERN TERRITORY NT +Senate Bernadette Gregg (CLP)

Darby Report 295 of 12 October 2004 Page 9 ALL COALITION CANDIDATES IN ORDER OF STATE AND CANDIDATURE Candidature Candidate Primary Swing Two-party-preferred NT Lingiari Ms Maisie Austin 37.27 -1.91 40.90

NT Senate Senator Nigel Scullion (CLP) NT Solomon Mr David Tollner AICM MP 48.76 6.95 52.51

QUEENSLAND Qld +Senate Mr James Baker (Nats) Qld +Senate Ms Sue Boyce BA(Hons) MBus FAICD Qld +Senate Sen George Brandis BA (Hons) LLB (Hons) (Qld) BCL (Oxon) Qld +Senate Dr Stewart Gillies BE(Hons) PhD Qld +Senate Mr Barnaby Joyce (Nats) Senator-elect for Queensland Qld +Senate Senator-elect Dr Russell Trood LLB MSc PhD Qld Blair Mr Cameron Thompson MP 52.58 8.67 61.33 Qld Bonner Mr Ross Vasta BComm 43.90 1.51 50.17 Member-elect for Bonner Qld Bowman Dr Andrew Laming MPubAdm MB BS DipO&G DipOphthS 50.78 3.38 58.96 MPhil MPubP RACS Member-elect for Bowman Qld Bowman Mr Joe Ross (Nats) 3.90 Qld Brisbane Dr Ingrid Tall MB BS DipComm 39.82 -1.39 45.96 Qld Brisbane Maj Nick Withycombe MDSS, GradDipMgt (Nats) 2.95 1.13 Qld Capricornia Miss Di Kuntschik BA LLB 12.62 -1.90 Qld Capricornia Mr John Lever (Nats) 27.11 2.74 44.48 Qld Dawson Mrs De-Anne Kelly MP (Nats) 48.36 -1.86 60.66 Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Transport and Regional Services, Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Trade, Member for Dawson Qld Dickson Mr Peter Dutton BBus MP 52.19 6.65 57.82 Member for Dickson Qld Fadden Hon David Jull MP 59.80 6.42 65.44 Member for Fadden Qld Fairfax The Hon Alex Somlyay BEc MP 52.23 4.31 60.58 Member for Fairfax Qld Fisher Mr Peter Slipper BA LLB MP 55.95 3.93 63.09 Member for Fisher Qld Forde Mrs Kaye Elson MP 55.09 5.88 63.13 Member for Forde Qld Griffith Ms Janelle Payne BA LLB GradDipLP 37.32 -0.42 41.10 Qld Herbert Mr Peter Lindsay MP 49.68 6.74 56.18 Member for Herbert Qld Hinkler Mr Paul Neville MP (Nats) 46.65 6.04 54.21 Member for Hinkler Qld Kennedy Mr James Doyle (Nats) 23.71 10.64 Qld Leichhardt Mr Warren Entsch MP 53.42 4.66 60.04 Member for Leichhardt Qld Lilley Mr Alan Boulton 40.91 0.85 44.41 Qld Longman The Hon Mal Brough MP 51.81 6.58 57.52 Minister for Revenue and Assistant Treasurer Member for Longman Qld Maranoa Hon Bruce Scott MP (Nats) 59.23 6.12 69.37 Member for Maranoa Qld McPherson Mrs Margaret May DipBusAdmin MP 58.97 4.08 63.89 Member for McPherson Darby Report 295 of 12 October 2004 Page 10 ALL COALITION CANDIDATES IN ORDER OF STATE AND CANDIDATURE Candidature Candidate Primary Swing Two-party-preferred Qld Moncrieff Mr Steven Ciobo BComm LLM MP 64.54 11.05 70.15 Member for Moncrieff Qld Moreton The Hon Gary Hardgrave BCom DipMR MP 48.95 1.74 53.83 Minister for Citizenship & Multicultural Affairs and Minister Assisting the Prime Minister Member for Moreton Qld Oxley Mr Daniel Smith BSc BBus LLB MBA 33.28 1.42 39.70 Qld Oxley Mr Daniel Smith BSc LLB BBus MBA JP(Qual) 33.40 1.54 39.81 Qld Petrie Ms Teresa Gambaro BBus MP 52.42 4.16 53.48 Member for Petrie Qld Rankin Mr Mike Boyd (Nats) 968 Qld Rankin Mrs Wendy D Creighton BAppSc 36.75 -4.02 46.83 Qld Robertson The Hon Jim Lloyd MP 53.57 +2.77 56.74 Minister for Local Government, Territories and Roads Member for Robertson Qld Ryan Mr Michael Johnson BA LLB MP 55.01 6.52 60.53 Member for Ryan Qld Senate Sen Brett Mason BA LLB(Hons) MPhil PhD Qld Wide Bay The Hon Warren Truss MP (Nats) 47.14 13.57 62.83 Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Member for Wide Bay

SOUTH AUSTRALIA SA +Senate Senator the Hon Amanda Vanstone BA LLB GrDipLPrac Minister for Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs, Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for Reconciliation SA +Senate Senator the Hon Chris Ellison BJuris, LLB SA +Senate Senator Alan Baird Ferguson SA +Senate Sue Lawrie SA +Senate Senator the Hon Nick Minchin BEc LLB Minister for Finance and Administration SA +Senate Julie Sippo (Nats) SA +Senate John Venus (Nats) SA +Senate Ian Willcourt (Nats) SA Adelaide The Hon Trish Worth RN MP 45.05 +0.58 48.23 Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Health and Ageing, Member for Adelaide SA Barker Mr Pat Secker BEc MP 53.34 -2.78 70.11 Member for Barker SA Boothby Dr Andrew Southcott MB BS BEc MBA 50.56 2.42 55.16 SA Grey Mr Barry Wakelin MP 56.17 1.69 63.40 Member for Grey SA Hindmarsh Mr Simon Birmingham 46.02 0.95 49.83 SA Kingston Mr Kym Richardson DipPM DipESM 43.59 3.82 49.81 SA Makin Mrs Trish Draper BA MP 44.69 -1.03 50.66 SA Mayo The Hon Alexander Downer BA(Hons) MP 53.63 0 63.19 Foreign Minister Member for Mayo SA Port Mr Terry Inglis BA (Hons) Dip Ed MEnvM MBA 31.62 4.91 34.00 Adelaide SA Sturt The Hon Chris Pyne LLB GradDipLP MP 51.65 0.97 56.58 Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Family and Community Services Member for Sturt Darby Report 295 of 12 October 2004 Page 11 ALL COALITION CANDIDATES IN ORDER OF STATE AND CANDIDATURE Candidature Candidate Primary Swing Two-party-preferred SA Wakefield Mr David Fawcett BSc MBA 43.62 4.54 50.37 Member-elect for Wakefield

TASMANIA Tas +Senate Senator the Hon Eric Abetz BA LLB Special Minister of State Tas +Senate Senator Guy Barnett LLB LLM AICD Tas +Senate Senator-elect Stephen Parry MAIE Tas Bass Mr Michael Ferguson BAppSc BEd 49.33 7.88 52.67 Member-elect for Bass Tas Braddon Mr Mark Baker BEd BComm DipT 47.68 8.51 51.37 Member-elect for Braddon Tas Denison Mr Erick Pastoor 32.77 1.18 37.03 Tas Franklin Mr Henry Finnis GradDipAppSc 38.99 1.43 42.56 Tas Lyons Mr Ben Quin BA(Mil) 42.55 6.74 46.31 VICTORIA Vic +Senate Mr Dino De Marchi LLB Vic +Senate Mr Jim Forbes BEd DipTAS Vic +Senate Senator Julian McGauran BEc CPA (Nats) Vic +Senate Mr Eugene Notermans AssocDipM&IE Vic +Senate Senator-elect the Hon Michael Ronaldson LLB Vic +Senate Senator the Hon Judith Troeth BA DipEd Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Vic Aston Mr Chris Pearce BBus MP 58.57 7.91 63.02 Member for Aston Vic Ballarat Miss Elizabeth Matuschka 44.95 2.83 48.02 Vic Batman Mr Max Gratton BA 25.57 3.84 28.04 Vic Bendigo Cr Kevin Gibbins 45.55 6.03 49.10 Vic Bruce Mrs Angela Randall AssocDipMRA BAppSC GradDipEd 42.78 3.30 45.98 MPubH Vic Calwell Mrs Dianne Livett 37.40 8.83 41.60 Vic Casey Mr Tony Smith BA (Hons) BCom MP 56.27 4.98 61.30 Member for Casey Vic Chisolm Mr Stephen Hartney DipMEchEng CPE MIEA 43.42 -0.20 47.04 Vic Corangamite Mr Stewart McArthur MA MP 51.96 4.80 55.13 Member for Corangamite Vic Corio Mr Bruce King 40.03 3.65 43.92 Vic Deakin Mr Phillip Barresi BA GradDip MP 50.45 3.38 55.25 Member for Deakin Vic Dunkley Mr Bruce Billson BBus MP 55.48 5.75 59.12 Member for Dunkley Vic Flinders Mr Greg Hunt MA LLB(Hons) MP 58.18 6.66 60.90 Member for Flinders Vic Gellibrand Mr David McConnell BBus 31.13 4.94 34.55 Vic Gippsland The Hon Peter McGauran MP (Nats) 49.23 19.50 58.02 Minister for Science Member for Gippsland Vic Goldstein Mr Andrew Robb BEc(Hons) DipAgrSc 55.88 3.15 59.67 Vic Gorton Mrs Susan Jennison MA GrDipIS 31.99 7.96 34.45

Darby Report 295 of 12 October 2004 Page 12 ALL COALITION CANDIDATES IN ORDER OF STATE AND CANDIDATURE Candidature Candidate Primary Swing Two-party-preferred Vic Higgins The Hon Peter Costello BA LLB (Hons) MP 54.85 1.66 58.34 Treasurer of Australia Member for Higgins Vic Holt Mr Paul Teiwes 42.59 6.46 47.82 Vic Hotham Miss Jennifer Marriner 38.63 3.53 39.01 Vic Indi Ms Sophie Panopoulos BCom LLB LLM MP 62.58 21.50 66.39 Member for Indi Vic Isaacs Mr Jeff Shelley DipDM 43.18 5.12 48.29 Vic Jagajaga Mr Woody Inman BIntRel 42.33 1.86 45.59 Vic Kooyong Mr Petro Georgiou BA(Hons) MP 54.28 -0.80 58.96 Member for Kooyong Vic La Trobe Mr Jason Wood MAppSc 51.02 4.48 55.14 Vic Lalor Mr Peter Curtis DipB&CM 37.57 4.52 41.46 Vic Mallee Mr John Forrest MSc BE DipCivEng MP (Nats) 68.82 15.62 75.05 Member for Mallee Vic Maribyrnong Dr Conrad D'Souza MPharm PhD 37.22 7.23 40.22 Vic McEwen The Hon Fran Bailey DipT MP 51.42 4.86 55.93 Minister for Employment Services and Minister Assisting the Minister for Defence Member for McEwen Vic McMillan Ms Bridget McKenzie BEd BAppSc (Nats) 9.28 -7.31 Vic McMillan Vic Mr Russell Broadbent 43.40 14.27 55.46 Member-elect for McMillan Vic Melbourne Mr Jerry Dimitroulis DipM 24.04 -1.00 34.95 Vic Melbourne Mr David Southwick BBus GradDipM 41.88 2.17 44.86 Ports Vic Menzies The Hon Kevin Andrews BA LLM 56.52 3.19 60.39 Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations Member for Menzies Vic Murray Hon Dr Sharman Stone MA PhD MP 65.83 1.79 74.94 Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for the Environment & Heritage Member for Murray Vic Scullin Mr Lucas Kostadinoski 30.55 4.85 34.88 Vic Wannon Mr David Hawker BEng MP 57.75 5.53 62.17 Member for Wannon Vic Wills Mr Blair Hamilton 28.24 2.77 32.69 WESTERN AUSTRALIA WA +Senate Senator-elect Judith Adams WA +Senate Senator the Hon Ian Campbell Minister for the Environment and Heritage Manager of Government Business in the Senate WA +Senate Mr Geoff Gill (Nats) WA +Senate Mr Norman Henning (Nats) WA +Senate Michelle Steck WA Brand Mr Phil Edman 40.06 16.09 45.27 WA Canning Mr Don Randall DipT MP 52.97 11.13 59.63 Member for Canning WA Cowan Maj Luke Simpkins BA BSc LLB BBus MBA JP(Qual) 44.62 8.50 49.21 WA Curtin Hon Julie Bishop LLB MP 60.05 4.89 64.93 Minister for Ageing Member for Curtin

Darby Report 295 of 12 October 2004 Page 13 ALL COALITION CANDIDATES IN ORDER OF STATE AND CANDIDATURE Candidature Candidate Primary Swing Two-party-preferred WA Forrest Hon Geoff Prosser MP 54.05 8.02 60.90 Member for Forrest WA Fremantle Mr Carmelo Zagsami 35.82 5.42 42.01 WA Hasluck Mr Stuart Henry 45.71 6.38 51.78 Member-elect for Hasluck WA Kalgoorlie Mr Barry Haase MP 44.89 2.29 55.66 Member for Kalgoorlie WA Moore Dr Mal Washer MB BS MP 55.68 6.69 60.82 Member for Moore WA O’Connor The Hon Wilson Tuckey MP 53.21 3.73 70.41 Member for O'Connor WA O'Connor Mrs Leigh Hardingham (Nats) 5,628 2.30 WA Pearce The Hon Judi Moylan DipREM BEd MP 53.90 9.07 63.02 Member for Pearce WA Stirling Mr Michael Keenan MPhil BA(Hons) 47.29 7.10 51.71 Member-elect for Stirling WA Swan Mr Andrew Murfin DipAPH&CA 44.40 5.42 49.89 WA Tangney Dr Dennis Jensen BAppSc MSc PhD 54.03 4.22 61.79 Member-elect for Tangney

Michael Darby’s Regular Bush Poetry Gigs Friends, allies and opponents are welcome

Each Monday at 8pm Wood and Stone opposite Manly Wharf. High quality pizzas at modest prices. Good house wine around $17 a bottle. Pay your own bills.

Each Thursday at 7.30pm (since 1998). Join the Poet’s table at Harry’s Fish Café, on the upper floor of the two storey building on the seaward side at the Spit Bridge, Mosman. BYO (wine only) or choose from Harry’s cellar. We share the tab, usually $45 or less.

Each Friday at 8.30pm at Manly, across the Park from the Police Station, next door to the Civic Club. Manly philanthropists Alan and Hui Clarke each week put on a meal and fellowship for the local homeless, and the hosts kindly allow me to supply entertainment.

Darby Report 295 of 12 October 2004 Page 14

COALITION REPS CANDIDATES IN ORDER OF T-P-P PERCENTAGE Two-party-preferred Candidature Candidate Primary Swing

COALITION SEATS HELD BY BETTER THAN TWENTY PERCENT 75.05 Vic Mallee Mr John Forrest MSc BE DipCivEng MP (Nats) 68.82 15.62 Member for Mallee 74.94 Vic Murray Hon Dr Sharman Stone MA PhD MP 65.83 1.79 Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for the Environment & Heritage, Member for Murray 70.95 NSW Mitchell Hon Alan Cadman MP 64.79 1.53 Member for Mitchell 70.41 WA O’Connor The Hon Wilson Tuckey MP 53.21 3.73 Member for O'Connor 70.40 NSW Riverina Mrs Kay Hull MP (Nats) 66.72 5.27 Member for Riverina 70.15 Qld Moncrieff Mr Steven Ciobo BComm LLM MP 64.54 11.05 Member for Moncrieff 70.11 SA Barker Mr Pat Secker BEc MP 53.34 -2.78 Member for Barker

COALITION SEATS HELD BY TWENTY PERCENT OR LESS 69.71 NSW Farrer Mrs Sussan Ley BEcon MP 63.26 25.60 Member for Farrer 69.37 Qld Maranoa Hon Bruce Scott MP (Nats) 59.23 6.12 Member for Maranoa 68.66 NSW Bradfield Dr Brendan Nelson MB BS MP 63.39 1.21 Minister for Education, Science & Training Member for Bradfield 68.08 NSW Gwydir The Hon John Anderson MA MP (Nats) 61.82 9.19 Deputy Prime Minister Member for Gwydir 66.39 Vic Indi Ms Sophie Panopoulos BCom LLB LLM MP 62.58 21.50 Member for Indi 66.07 NSW Mackellar Hon Bronwyn Bishop MP 57.39 -0.25 Member for Mackellar 65.44 Qld Fadden Hon David Jull MP 59.80 6.42 Member for Fadden

COALITION SEATS HELD BY FIFTEEN PERCENT OR LESS 64.93 WA Curtin Hon Julie Bishop LLB MP 60.05 4.89 Minister for Ageing Member for Curtin 64.15 NSW Hume Mr Alby Schultz MP 57.60 4.61 64.11 NSW Parkes Mr John Cobb MP (Nats) 60.40 9.30 Member for Parkes 64.05 NSW Cook Hon Bruce Baird BA MBA MP 58.35 2.13 Member for Cook 63.89 Qld McPherson Mrs Margaret May DipBusAdmin MP 58.97 4.08 Member for McPherson 63.40 SA Grey Mr Barry Wakelin MP 56.17 1.69 Member for Grey 63.19 SA Mayo The Hon Alexander Downer BA(Hons) MP 53.63 0 Foreign Minister Member for Mayo 63.13 Qld Forde Mrs Kaye Elson MP 55.09 5.88 Member for Forde

Darby Report 295 of 12 October 2004 Page 15 COALITION REPS CANDIDATES IN ORDER OF T-P-P PERCENTAGE Two-party-preferred Candidature Candidate Primary Swing 63.09 Qld Fisher Mr Peter Slipper BA LLB MP 55.95 3.93 Member for Fisher 63.02 WA Pearce The Hon Judi Moylan DipREM BEd MP 53.90 9.07 Member for Pearce 63.02 Vic Aston Mr Chris Pearce BBus MP 58.57 7.91 Member for Aston 62.89 NSW Lyne The Hon Mark Vaile MP (Nats) 56.31 3.01 Minister for Trade Member for Lyne 62.83 Qld Wide Bay The Hon Warren Truss MP (Nats) 47.14 13.57 Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Member for Wide Bay 62.17 Vic Wannon Mr David Hawker BEng MP 57.75 5.53 Member for Wannon 61.79 WA Tangney Dr Dennis Jensen BAppSc MSc PhD 54.03 4.22 Member-elect for Tangney 61.51 NSW Berowra Hon Philip Ruddock BA LLB MP 55.68 -2.89 Attorney-General of the Commonwealth of Australia Member for Berowra 61.33 Qld Blair Mr Cameron Thompson MP 52.58 8.67 61.30 Vic Casey Mr Tony Smith BA (Hons) BCom MP 56.27 4.98 Member for Casey 61.02 NSW Hughes The Hon Danna Vale BA LLB MP 55.43 1.82 Minister for Veterans' Affairs Member for Hughes 60.90 Vic Flinders Mr Greg Hunt MA LLB(Hons) MP 58.18 6.66 Member for Flinders 60.90 WA Forrest Hon Geoff Prosser MP 54.05 8.02 Member for Forrest 60.82 WA Moore Dr Mal Washer MB BS MP 55.68 6.69 Member for Moore 60.66 Qld Dawson Mrs De-Anne Kelly MP (Nats) 48.36 -1.86 Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Transport and Regional Services Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Trade Member for Dawson 60.58 Qld Fairfax The Hon Alex Somlyay BEc MP 52.23 4.31 Member for Fairfax 60.53 Qld Ryan Mr Michael Johnson BA LLB MP 55.01 6.52 Member for Ryan 60.39 Vic Menzies The Hon Kevin Andrews BA LLM 56.52 3.19 Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations Member for Menzies 60.29 NSW Warringah Hon Tony Abbott BEc LLB MA MP 54.77 3.32 Member for Warringah Minister for Health 60.04 Qld Leichhardt Mr Warren Entsch MP 53.42 4.66 Member for Leichhardt

COALITION SEATS HELD BY TEN PERCENT OR LESS 59.75 NSW Gilmore Mrs Joanna Gash CBE MP 54.19 -1.92 Member for Gilmore 59.75 NSW North Hon Joe Hockey BA LLB MP 56.25 -0.71 Sydney Minister for Small Business and Tourism Member for North Sydney 59.67 Vic Goldstein Mr Andrew Robb BEc(Hons) DipAgrSc 55.88 3.15

Darby Report 295 of 12 October 2004 Page 16 COALITION REPS CANDIDATES IN ORDER OF T-P-P PERCENTAGE Two-party-preferred Candidature Candidate Primary Swing 59.63 WA Canning Mr Don Randall DipT MP 52.97 11.13 Member for Canning 59.50 NSW Macarthur Mr Pat Farmer MP 54.59 3.80 Member for Macarthur 59.36 NSW Macquarie Mr Kerry Bartlett MEc DipEd MP 53.88 +2.88 Member for Macquarie 59.12 Vic Dunkley Mr Bruce Billson BBus MP 55.48 5.75 Member for Dunkley 58.96 Vic Kooyong Mr Petro Georgiou BA(Hons) MP 54.28 -0.80 Member for Kooyong 58.96 Qld Bowman Dr Andrew Laming MPubAdm MB BS DipO&G DipOphthS 50.78 3.38 MPhil MPubP RACS Member-elect for Bowman +n/a Qld Bowman Mr Joe Ross (Nats) 3.90 58.34 Vic Higgins The Hon Peter Costello BA LLB (Hons) MP 54.85 1.66 Treasurer of Australia Member for Higgins 58.02 Vic Gippsland The Hon Peter McGauran MP (Nats) 49.23 19.50 Minister for Science Member for Gippsland 57.82 Qld Dickson Mr Peter Dutton BBus MP 52.19 6.65 Member for Dickson 57.52 Qld Longman The Hon Mal Brough MP 51.81 6.58 Minister for Revenue and Assistant Treasurer Member for Longman 56.74 Qld Robertson The Hon Jim Lloyd MP 53.57 +2.77 Minister for Local Government, Territories and Roads Member for Robertson 56.58 SA Sturt The Hon Chris Pyne LLB GradDipLP MP 51.65 0.97 Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Family and Community Services Member for Sturt 56.52 NSW Paterson Mr Bob Baldwin MP 51.8 +11.89 Member for Paterson 56.42 NSW Cowper Mr Luke Hartsuyker MP (Nats) 50.47 20.58 Member for Cowper 56.18 Qld Herbert Mr Peter Lindsay MP 49.68 6.74 Member for Herbert

COALITION SEATS HELD BY SIX PERCENT OR LESS 55.93 Vic McEwen The Hon Fran Bailey DipT MP 51.42 4.86 Minister for Employment Services and Minister Assisting the Minister for Defence Member for McEwen 55.75 NSW Dobell Mr Ken Ticehurst DipCoyDir MP 49.91 5.98 Member for Dobell 55.66 WA Kalgoorlie Mr Barry Haase MP 44.89 2.29 Member for Kalgoorlie 55.47 NSW Mr Malcolm Turnbull BA LLB BCivilLaws (Oxon) 42.07 Wentworth Member-elect for Wentworth 55.46 Vic McMillan Vic Mr Russell Broadbent 43.40 14.27 Member-elect for McMillan +n/a Vic McMillan Ms Bridget McKenzie BEd BAppSc (Nats) 9.28 -7.31 55.25 Vic Deakin Mr Phillip Barresi BA GradDip MP 50.45 3.38 Member for Deakin 55.16 SA Boothby Dr Andrew Southcott MB BS BEc MBA 50.56 2.42

Darby Report 295 of 12 October 2004 Page 17 COALITION REPS CANDIDATES IN ORDER OF T-P-P PERCENTAGE Two-party-preferred Candidature Candidate Primary Swing 55.14 Vic La Trobe Mr Jason Wood MAppSc 51.02 4.48

55.13 Vic Mr Stewart McArthur MA MP 51.96 4.80 Corangamite Member for Corangamite

COALITION SEATS HELD BY FIVE PERCENT OR LESS 54.24 NSW Lindsay Hon Jackie Kelly LLB MP 48.15 1.22 Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister Member for Lindsay 54.21 Qld Hinkler Mr Paul Neville MP (Nats) 46.65 6.04 Member for Hinkler 54.14 NSW Page The Hon Ian Causley MP (Nats) 48.45 6.60 Deputy Speaker Member for Page

COALITION SEATS HELD BY FOUR PERCENT OR LESS 53.83 Qld Moreton The Hon Gary Hardgrave BCom DipMR MP 48.95 1.74 Minister for Citizenship & Multicultural Affairs and Minister Assisting the Prime Minister Member for Moreton 53.66 NSW Hon The Hon. John Howard LLB MP 49.32 -3.75 Bennelong Prime Minister of Australia Member for Bennelong 53.48 Qld Petrie Ms Teresa Gambaro BBus MP 52.42 4.16 Member for Petrie

COALITION SEATS HELD BY THREE PERCENT OR LESS 52.67 Tas Bass Mr Michael Ferguson BAppSc BEd 49.33 7.88 Member-elect for Bass 52.51 NT Solomon Mr David Tollner AICM MP 48.76 6.95

COALITION SEATS HELD BY TWO PERCENT OR LESS 51.78 WA Hasluck Mr Stuart Henry 45.71 6.38 Member-elect for Hasluck 51.77 WA Stirling Mr Michael Keenan MPhil BA(Hons) 47.41 7.22 Member-elect for Stirling 51.66 NSW Eden- Mr Gary Nairn BSurv MP 48.17 7.09 Monaro Member for Eden-Monaro 51.37 Tas Braddon Mr Mark Baker BEd BComm DipT 47.68 8.51 Member-elect for Braddon COALITION SEATS HELD BY ONE PERCENT OR LESS 50.66 SA Makin Mrs Trish Draper BA MP 44.69 -1.03 50.56 NSW Greenway Mrs Louise Markus BA 44.29 7.35 Member-elect for Greenway 50.37 SA Wakefield Mr David Fawcett BSc MBA 43.62 4.54 Member-elect for Wakefield 50.17 Qld Bonner Mr Ross Vasta BComm 43.90 1.51 Member-elect for Bonner

SEATS LOST BY ONE PERCENT OR LESS 49.89 WA Swan Mr Andrew Murfin DipAPH&CA 44.40 5.42 49.83 SA Hindmarsh Mr Simon Birmingham 46.02 0.95 49.81 SA Kingston Mr Kym Richardson DipPM DipESM 43.59 3.82 Darby Report 295 of 12 October 2004 Page 18 COALITION REPS CANDIDATES IN ORDER OF T-P-P PERCENTAGE Two-party-preferred Candidature Candidate Primary Swing 49.35 NSW Richmond The Hon Larry Anthony BComm MP (Nats) 45.57 .82 Minister for Children & Youth Affairs, Member for Richmond 49.21 WA Cowan Maj Luke Simpkins BA 44.62 8.50 BSc LLB BBus MBA JP(Qual) 49.10 Vic Bendigo Cr Kevin Gibbins 45.55 6.03

SEATS LOST BY TWO PERCENT OR LESS 48.93 NSW Banks Mr Roger Gray BA BEc MBus MBA 42.25 6.46 48.81 NSW Hon Ross Cameron BEc LLB MP 43.97 -1.97 Parramatta Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasurer Member for Parramatta 48.29 Vic Isaacs Mr Jeff Shelley DipDM 43.18 5.12 48.23 SA Adelaide The Hon Trish Worth RN MP 45.05 +0.58 Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Health and Ageing, Member for Adelaide 48.02 Vic Ballarat Miss Elizabeth Matuschka 44.95 2.83

SEATS LOST BY THREE PERCENT OR LESS 47.82 Vic Holt Mr Paul Teiwes 42.59 6.46 47.04 Vic Chisolm Mr Stephen Hartney DipMEchEng CPE MIEA 43.42 -0.20

SEATS LOST BY FOUR PERCENT OR LESS 46.83 Qld Rankin Mrs Wendy D Creighton BAppSc 36.75 -4.02 +n/a Qld Rankin Mr Mike Boyd (Nats) 968 46.38 NSW Lowe Mr John Sidoti 42.74 0.78 46.31 Tas Lyons Mr Ben Quin BA(Mil) 42.55 6.74

SEATS LOST BY FIVE PERCENT OR LESS 45.98 Vic Bruce Mrs Angela Randall AssocDipMRA BAppSC GradDipEd 42.78 3.30 MPubH 45.96 Qld Brisbane Dr Ingrid Tall MB BS DipComm 39.82 -1.39 +n/a Qld Brisbane Maj Nick Withycombe MDSS, GradDipMgt (Nats) 2.95 1.13 45.59 Vic Jagajaga Mr Woody Inman BIntRel 42.33 1.86 45.27 WA Brand Mr Phil Edman 40.06 16.09

SEATS LOST BY SIX PERCENT OR LESS 44.86 Vic Melbourne Mr David Southwick BBus GradDipM 41.88 2.17 Ports 44.48 Qld Capricornia Mr John Lever (Nats) 27.11 2.74 44.41 Qld Lilley Mr Alan Boulton 40.91 0.85

SEATS LOST BY TEN PERCENT OR LESS 43.92 Vic Corio Mr Bruce King 40.03 3.65 42.56 Tas Franklin Mr Henry Finnis GradDipAppSc 38.99 1.43 42.10 NSW Barton Mr Bruce Morrow 39.17 1.44 42.01 WA Fremantle Mr Carmelo Zagsami 35.82 5.42 41.60 Vic Calwell Mrs Dianne Livett 37.40 8.83 41.46 Vic Lalor Mr Peter Curtis DipB&CM 37.57 4.52 41.26 NSW Charlton Mr Kurt Darcey 34.53 1.22 41.10 Qld Griffith Ms Janelle Payne BA LLB GradDipLP 37.32 -0.42

Darby Report 295 of 12 October 2004 Page 19 COALITION REPS CANDIDATES IN ORDER OF T-P-P PERCENTAGE Two-party-preferred Candidature Candidate Primary Swing 40.92 NSW Kingsford Mr Nick Prassas BComm DipLaw 36.25 1.99 Smith 40.90 NT Lingiari Ms Maisie Austin 37.27 -1.91 40.38 NSW Werriwa Mr Michael Medway DipBus 23,147 1.57 40.26 NSW Shortland Mrs Dell Tschanter 35.89 1.22 40.22 Vic Maribyrnong Dr Conrad D'Souza MPharm PhD 37.22 7.23 40.09 ACT Canberra Mrs Belinda Barnier 36.81 2.77 40.00 NSW Newcastle Ms. Josephine Barfield BBusMan MIntRel 35.31 4.94

SEATS LOST BY TWENTY PERCENT OR LESS 39.81 Qld Oxley Mr Daniel Smith BSc LLB BBus MBA JP(Qual) 33.40 1.54 39.70 Qld Oxley Mr Daniel Smith BSc BBus LLB MBA 33.28 1.42 39.01 Vic Hotham Miss Jennifer Marriner 38.63 3.53 37.03 Tas Denison Mr Erick Pastoor 32.77 1.18 36.88 NSW Reid Ms Sarah McMahon BComm LLB 30.47 7.99 36.65 NSW Chifley Mr Costa Asarloglou BA 29.10 3.58 36.59 ACT Fraser Mr Adam Giles MBA 33.49 2.71 36.59 NSW Blaxland Mr Mark Majewski 30.51 4.60 36.16 NSW Hunter Ms Beth Black (Nats) 26.84 -0.66 34.95 Vic Melbourne Mr Jerry Dimitroulis DipM 24.04 -1.00 34.88 Vic Scullin Mr Lucas Kostadinoski 30.55 4.85 34.55 Vic Gellibrand Mr David McConnell BBus 31.13 4.94 34.45 Vic Gorton Mrs Susan Jennison MA GrDipIS 31.99 7.96 34.00 SA Port Mr Terry Inglis BA (Hons) Dip Ed MEnvM MBA 31.62 4.91 Adelaide 33.83 NSW Watson Mr Keith Topolski 30.81 2.69 32.69 Vic Wills Mr Blair Hamilton 28.24 2.77 32.65 NSW Sydney Mr Michael Shevers BA(Hons) 27.77 2.33

SEATS LOST BY MORE THAN TWENTY PERCENT 28.71 NSW New Mr Trevor Khan (Nats) 18.98 -19.92 England INDEPENDENT +n/a NSW New Mr Scot MacDonald AssocDipFM BFinAdm 9.48 England 28.04 Vic Batman Mr Max Gratton BA 25.57 3.84 27.18 NSW Calare Mr Paul Blanch LLB 15.74 15.74 INDEPENDENT +n/a NSW Calare Mr Robert Griffith (Nats) 13.27 -7.26 +n/a NSW Mr John Larter 28.49 .51 Cunningham (Greens ran second) 26.88 NSW Grayndler Ms Stephanie Kokkolis CertFP 23.94 1.01 +n/a Qld Kennedy Mr James Doyle (Nats) 23.71 10.64 INDEPENDENT (ALP ran second)

Darby Report 295 of 12 October 2004 Page 20 HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES TOTAL VOTES AND AEC SUMMARY OF SEATS

Source: Australian Electoral Commission Updates may be viewed at http://vtr.aec.gov.au HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES NATIONAL TWO PARTY PREFERRED RESULT Coalition Votes Percentage % Swing % Liberal/National Coalition 5,107,969 52.66 +2.05 4,592,339 47.34 -2.05

SUMMARY OF DIVISIONS WON National 2001 2004 Election Party NSW VIC QLD WA SA TAS ACT NT Election Australian Labor Party 21 19 6 4 2 3 2 1 58 65 Liberal 21 16 16 10 6 2 0 0 71 68 The Nationals 6 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 12 13 CLP - Territory Party 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 Independent 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 Doubtful 0 0 1 1 3 0 0 0 5 0 TOTAL 50 37 28 15 11 5 2 2 150 150 COUNTED % 76.21 78.68 78.45 79.76 82.58 89.04 81.49 74.28 74.50

I expect that all five of the seats classed as doubtful by the AEC will be won by the Coalition, bringing a Lower House result of: Government 89 Opposition 58 Independent 3

Glenn Druery’s Prediction of Senate numbers Continuing New Senators Senators after Senators June 2005 Liberal 16 17 33 National 2 3 5 Country Liberal 0 1 1 Total Coalition 18 21 39 Labor 12 16 28 Democrat 4 0 4 Green 2 1 3 Family First 0 2 2 Total Non-Coalition 18 19 37

Glenn Druery’s specific predictions: In NSW, Labor will beat Liberals for Forests for the sixth place, with Greens’ preferences. In Victoria, Family First will defeat the Greens for the sixth place, with ALP preferences. In Queensland, the Liberals and Nationals defeat Greens for places five & six, with One Nation preferences. In South Australia, Labor defeats Family first for the sixth place, on Greens preferences. In Western Australia, ALP preferences allow Greens to beat Liberals and CDP for the sixth place. In Tasmania, Family First beats Greens for the sixth place on ALP preferences. In both ACT and NT, Labor and Liberal/Country Liberal each win one place.

The Darby Report is published by Michael Darby, PO Box 401 Manly 1655 [email protected] phone 9972 9316 or 0413 348 843

Darby Report 295 of 12 October 2004 Page 21