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Perry Warjiyo Governor of Bank Indonesia

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Perry Warjiyo Governor of Bank Indonesia SYNERGY, TRANSFORMATION, AND INNOVATION Toward an Advanced Indonesia 1 BANK INDONESIA’S ANNUAL MEETING 2019 2 3 BANK INDONESIA’S ANNUAL MEETING 2019 TABLE OF CONTENTS Greetings 5 Introduction 6 Global Economy: Diminishing Globalisation, Increasing Digitalisation 7 Three Important Lessons: Synergy, Transformation, and Innovation 10 Solid Economic Performance, Promising Economic Outlook 12 Bank Indonesia Policy Mix: Maintaining Stability, Boosting Growth Momentum 20 Bank Indonesia will Maintain an Accommodative Monetary Policy Stance in 2020 21 Accommodative Macroprudential Policy for Driving Economic Financing 22 Accelerating Financial Market Deepening 24 Payment System Policy for Electronification and Economic Efficiency 24 Payment System Innovation: Integration of Digital Economy and Finance 25 Empowering the Islamic Economy and MSMEs 30 Strengthening International Policy and Institution 30 Strengthening Synergy for Resilience, Economic Transformation, and Digital Innovation 31 4 “SYNERGY, TRANSFORMATION, AND INNOVATION Toward an Advanced Indonesia” Speech of the Governor of Bank Indonesia BANK INDONESIA’S ANNUAL MEETING Jakarta, 28th November 2019 His Excellency: • President of the Republic of Indonesia, Mr. Joko Widodo; Honourable guests: • Leaders and Members of the House of Representatives and House of Regional Representatives of the Republic of Indonesia; • Leaders of State Institutions; • Ministers of Indonesia Maju Cabinet; • Chairman and Members of the Board of the Financial Services Authority (OJK) and Deposit Insurance Corporation (LPS); • Former Governors and Board members of Bank Indonesia; • Provincial Governors from all across Indonesia; • Leaders of the Banking Industry, Corporate Sector and National Media; • Awardees of 2019 Bank Indonesia Award; • Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen. 5 BANK INDONESIA’S ANNUAL MEETING 2019 Assalamu’alaikum Warahmatullahi Wabarakaatuh, Salam Sejahtera for all of us, Om Swastyastu, Namo Buddhaya, Salam Kebajikan, Syalom Let me begin by praising Allah SWT, God Almighty, for it is with His blessings that we can assemble here at the 2019 Bank Indonesia’s Annual Meeting. I also offer my sincerest appreciation to the President of the Republic of Indonesia for his esteemed presence this evening along with all the invited participants. I would like to congratulate 39 awardees of 2019 Bank Indonesia Award. Banks, corporates and individuals in four areas and 14 categories ranging from monetary and financial system stability management, payment system and rupiah currency management, those supporting Bank Indonesia policy as well as individual contributions. The awards are organised annually, as part of the Bank Indonesia’s Annual Meeting, as a form of appreciation and national recognition to our stakeholders who have been continously supporting Bank Indonesia. I would also like to take this opportunity to deliver our assessment on Indonesia’s economic performance in 2019 as well as the economic outlook and Bank Indonesia policy direction in 2020 that we have summarised under the theme “Synergy, Transformation, and Innovation Toward an Advanced Indonesia”. We consider this a pertinent theme as a strategy to overcome global economic headwinds to strengthen external resilience and boost national economic growth momentum toward an advanced nation in 2045. This is also a representation of Bank Indonesia’s accountability and transparency as mandated by the Bank Indonesia Act. 6 SYNERGY, TRANSFORMATION, AND INNOVATION Toward an Advanced Indonesia Global Economy: Diminishing growth toward a high-income advanced Globalisation, Increasing Digitalisation economy by 2045. There are no less than five key characteristics that demand vigilance as The global economy has become more follows: unfavorable in 2019. The ongoing trade war between the United States and China First, global economic growth declined and several other countries has continued to sharply in 2019, and may not be recovered escalate, with anti-globalisation sentiment in 2020. The trade war has had a devastating taking precedence along with inward- impact on the economy, not only in the looking policies. The Brexit issue in the UK has countries involved but also affecting all reached an impasse, while other geopolitical countries around the world. The International risks continue to emerge. At the same time, Monetary Fund (IMF) and several other economic and financial digitalisation is taking international organisations have, from time place rapidly - bringing with it all the benefits to time, revised down growth projections, and risks - penetrating various economic for some countries and also global economy. segments with control increasingly in the The nature of the slowdown also shifts from hands of big tech. The current phenomenon uneven global growth to a synchronised global of diminishing globalisation coupled with slowdown. Bank Indonesia projects a global increasing digitalisation is expected to persist economic slowdown from 3.6% in 2018 to just into 2020 and beyond. Consequently, we 3.0% in 2019 and 3.1% in 2020 in the absence must consider such phenomena in terms of of prolonged trade conflict (Table 1). Economic strengthening resilience and national economic growth in the United States, China as well as Table 1. Global Economy: Economic Growth, Trade Volume, and Commodity Prices (%, yoy) 2018 2019* 2020* World Economic Growth 3.6 3.0 3.1 Advanced Economies 2.2 1.7 1.5 United States 2.9 2.3 2.0 Euro Area 1.8 1.0 1.0 Japan 0.8 0.6 0.5 Emerging Economies 4.5 3.9 4.1 China 6.6 6.2 6.0 India 7.4 5.9 6.6 Latin America 1.0 0.5 1.8 World Trade Volume 3.4 -0.3 0.2 Indonesia Export Commodity Price Index -2.8 -4.1 -0.9 Source: World Economic Outlook (WEO) Database, October 2019, Bank Indonesia Projection Notes: *Projected 7 BANK INDONESIA’S ANNUAL MEETING 2019 many advanced and developing economies persisted with qualitative and quantitative are moderating. In fact, the threat of recession easing since the global financial crisis in 2008. looms large in several countries. In addition, Unfortunately, the range of conventional and global economic moderation has suppressed unconventional policy measures taken has not world trade volume and international succeeded in supporting the global economy. commodity prices (Table 1). This reminds us to Central banks cannot be “the only game in the warning given by President Joko Widodo at town” in dealing with trade war fallout. A the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Bali in synergy in the form of national economic policy October 2018, referring to the impact of the war mix is required, encompassing fiscal stimuli and in the Game of Thrones, has become a reality. economic reforms in the real sector, to underpin The winter indeed has arrived and we must be economic growth. prepared to face the cold. Third, volatility in foreign capital flows and Second, monetary policy by itself may not exchange rates in global financial markets always be effective in addressing the adverse persists. Liquidity injections coupled with impacts of the trade dispute. The US Federal low interest rates in advanced economies Reserve, raised its policy rate in 2018 as part have encouraged global investors to seek of its monetary policy normalisation, and then more attractive yields in emerging markets subsequently backtracked and has reduced (EMs), including Indonesia, in the form of the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) three times since portfolio investments in stocks, bonds, and July 2019 by a total of 75bps in order to ease other securities. The volatility of such capital its monetary policy stance (Graph 1). With zero flows is relatively high, amplified by economic and even negative interest rates, the European dynamics, the direction of monetary policy, Central Bank (ECB) has also continued its and global financial market uncertainty accomodative policy by expanding the balance (Graph 3). Volatile foreign capital flows have sheet through liquidity injections (Graph 2). triggered exchange rate volatility in emerging Furthermore, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has also markets, including rupiah. Furthermore, with Graph 1. Central Bank Policy Rate Cuts Graph 2. Central Bank Liquidity Injection (%) USD Trillion (%, yoy) 6 20 50 5 16 40 4 30 3 12 20 2 8 10 1 4 0 0 - -10 -1 2 6 10 2 6 10 2 6 10 2 6 10 2 6 10 2 6 10 2 6 10 2 6 10 2 6 10 2 6 10 2 6 10 2 6 10 10 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 FFRT - Lower Target ECB Main Refinancing Operation Fed ECB BoJ Asset Growth (rhs) BOJ Rate BOE Rate Source: Bloomberg, calculated Source: FRED, calculated 8 SYNERGY, TRANSFORMATION, AND INNOVATION Toward an Advanced Indonesia Graph 4. Interest Rate Differential and Rupiah Exchange US economy still outperforming others and a Rate Movements recent change in monetary policy direction, (%) (%, yoy) 30 the US dollar remains strong and affects 18 16 20 performance of other currency. Exchange 14 10 rate volatility, including the rupiah, is not only 12 10 0 driven by interest rate parity condition, but also 8 -10 investment risk premium (Graph 4). Maintaining 6 -20 an attractiveness yields is important, yet it is 4 2 -30 also crucial to strengthen positive sentiment 0 -40 on policy credibility and the national economic 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 outlook. Consequently, various economic Interest Rate Differential Rupiah Spot Exchange Rate (rhs) reform policies will be continued to improve Source: CEIC, calculated the ease of doing business, and therefore technological innovation has led to the rapid encourage more foreign capital to Indonesia, in development of fintech in the payment system particular foreign direct investment (FDI). and in various other financial services, such as crowdfunding, peer-to-peer lending, insurance, Fourth, economic and financial digitalisation and wealth management (Graph 5). Such is growing exponentially. The advancement financial services, which used to be conducted of digital technology is extraordinary, from the by banks and other financial institutions, are internet of things to artificial intelligence (AI), further developed and taken over by fintech, block chains, distributed ledger technology prompting a risk from shadow banking.
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