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Readings in European Security Volume 4 READINGS IN EUROPEAN SECURITY VOLUME 4 READINGS IN EUROPEAN SECURITY VOLUME 4 CHAIRMAN: FRANÇOIS HEISBOURG EDITOR: MICHAEL EMERSON CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES BRUSSELS INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY STUDIES LONDON GENEVA CENTRE FOR THE DEMOCRATIC CONTROL OF ARMED FORCES GENEVA This fourth volume of Readings in European Security contains the papers commissioned for presentation and discussion at the meetings of the European Security Forum (ESF) in the period from January 2006 to February 2007. They have been previously published in the European Security Forum Working Paper series, Nos. 21-25. We gratefully acknowledge financial support received for the European Security Forum from the Compagnia di San Paolo, DCAF, NATO, the Open Society Institute and the US Mission to the EU. ISBN-13: 978-92-9079-679-4 © Copyright 2007, Centre for European Policy Studies, International Institute for Security Studies & Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means – electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise – without the prior permission of the Centre for European Policy Studies, the International Institute for Security Studies or the Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces. CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL GENEVA CENTRE EUROPEAN INSTITUTE FOR FOR THE POLICY STRATEGIC DEMOCRATIC STUDIES STUDIES CONTROL OF ARMED FORCES Place du Congrès 1 Arundel House Rue de Chantepoulet 11, B-1000 Brussels, Belgium 13-15 Arundel St, Temple Place PO Box 1360 Tel: +32 (0)2.229.39.11 London, WC2R 3DX, UK 1211 Geneva 1, Switzerland Fax: +32 (0)2.219.41.51 Tel: +44 (0)20.7379.7676 Tel: +41 (22)741.77.00 www.ceps.be Fax: +44 (0)20.7836.3108 Fax: +41 (22)741.77.05 E-mail: [email protected] www.iiss.org www.dcaf.ch E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] CONTRIBUTORS SAMIR AMGHAR PETER BERGEN ALEXANDER BOGOMOLOV TIMOFEI V. BORDACHEV AMEL BOUBEKEUR CHRISTIAN EGENHOFER MICHAEL EMERSON JULIAN LINDLEY-FRENCH JEFFREY GEDMIN CHARLES GRANT LEONID GRIGORIEV FRANÇOIS HEISBOURG HEKMAT KARZAI ISMAIL KHAN F. STEPHEN LARRABEE ALEXEY MALASHENKO ARKADY MOSHES ALAN RILEY JAMES SHERR VLADIMIR SOCOR ROB DE WIJK ANDREI ZAGORSKI ORGANISERS OF THE EUROPEAN SECURITY FORUM The Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) is an independent policy research institute founded in Brussels in 1983, with the aim of producing sound policy research leading to constructive solutions to the challenges facing Europe. Website: http://www.ceps.eu The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), founded in London in 1958, is the leading international and independent organisation for the study of military strategy, arms control, regional security and conflict resolution. Website: http://www. www.iiss.org The Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces (DCAF) promotes good governance and reform of the security sector, conducts research on good practices, encourages the development of appropriate norms at the national and international levels, makes policy recommendations and provides in-country advice and assistance programmes. Website: http://www. www.dcaf.ch CONTENTS Preface ..................................................................................................... i MICHAEL EMERSON Introduction .......................................................................................... 1 FRANÇOIS HEISBOURG Strategic Implications of the EU Crisis Chairman’s Summing-up................................................................................6 FRANÇOIS HEISBOURG American and European malaise? An American Perspective .................10 JEFFREY GEDMIN The Strategic Implications of the EU Malaise: Enlargement, Variable Geometry and a Stronger Neighbourhood Policy: A European Perspective ................................................................................15 CHARLES GRANT The Strategic Implications of the EU’s ‘Crisis’: A Russian Perspective ...................................................................................27 TIMOFEI V. BORDACHEV Between Suicide Bombings and the Burning Banlieues: The Multiple Crises of Europe’s Parallel Societies Chairman’s Summing-up..............................................................................42 FRANÇOIS HEISBOURG The Role of Islam in Europe: Multiple crises?............................................46 AMEL BOUBEKEUR AND SAMIR AMGHAR The Multiple Crises in Dutch Parallel Societies ........................................51 ROB DE WIJK Islam in Russia in 2020 ..................................................................................65 ALEXEY MALASHENKO European Energy Security: What should it mean? What to do? Chairman’s Summing-up ............................................................................. 74 FRANÇOIS HEISBOURG Integrating Security of Supply, Market Liberalisation and Climate Change...................................................................................... 79 CHRISTIAN EGENHOFER Growth with Energy and Energy Security................................................ 97 LEONID GRIGORIEV The Caspian–Black Sea Region: The Key to Diversifying Europe’s Energy Supplies ........................................................................................... 115 VLADIMIR SOCOR Energy Security, Gas Market Liberalisation and Our Energy Relationship with Russia............................................................................ 122 ALAN RILEY Quid Ukraine’s strategic security? Chairman’s Summing-up ........................................................................... 129 FRANÇOIS HEISBOURG Ukraine’s Strategic Security: On a Crossroads between Democracy and Neutrality.............................................................................................. 134 ALEXANDER BOGOMOLOV Ukraine’s Security: The Interplay of Internal and External Factors..... 157 JAMES SHERR Ukraine’s Strategic Security: Crossroads passed, bumpy road ahead or an optimistic view? .............................................. 166 ARKADY MOSHES Ukrainian Foreign and Security Policy after the Collapse of the Orange Coalition .............................................................................. 178 F. STEPHEN LARRABEE Afghanistan: Mission impossible? Chairman’s Summing-up............................................................................190 FRANÇOIS HEISBOURG ‘Afghanistan-lite’: The Crunch ...................................................................196 JULIAN LINDLEY-FRENCH Lessons from Soviet Experiences of Socialist Modernisation in Afghanistan (1978–89).............................................................................211 ANDREI ZAGORSKI Afghanistan 2007: Problems, Opportunities and Possible Solutions....225 PETER BERGEN Strategic and Operational Measures to Curb the Growing Threat of Suicide Terrorism in Afghanistan .........................................................239 HEKMAT KARZAI Afghanistan: Mission impossible? The Pakistani Perspective...............247 ISMAIL KHAN About the Chairman and the Editor............................................. 257 Contributors to the European Security Forum, 2000-2007........ 258 PREFACE With this fourth volume of Readings in European Security, the number of seminars held by the European Security Forum has reached 25, which may be viewed as an anniversary and an occasion for stocktaking. The first meeting was held in April 2001. The project was initiated by CEPS and the IISS in response to an awareness that the European Union’s role in strategic foreign policy and security seemed destined to develop, yet at that time debate and analysis of the potential issues were extremely limited even in Brussels. In the major capital cities of Europe, there were well-established policy research institutes devoted to such questions, but they were invariably looking from national rather than European perspectives. From the start, it was decided to follow a standard format of inviting one scholar each from the EU, Russia and the United States to address the same issue. With few exceptions, different authors were invited for each of the 25 seminars, with the result that there is now a virtual ESF alumni association of almost 75 past contributors. Therefore, for this volume we have listed this impressive collection of individuals at the end. Taken together one can say that the six years and 25 seminars of the European Security Forum have involved a considerable share of the leading scholars of international relations and strategic studies in the EU, Russia and the US. We hope that this effort has resulted in focusing the attention of the European policy-research community on Europe’s actual or desirable role in matters of strategic security, as well as also helping their American and Russian counterparts to think of Europe as an emerging strategic actor. Looking ahead, we hope to broaden the topics and participation with greater weight given to global rather than just European issues. The last meeting covered in this volume, on Afghanistan, with contributors also from that region, was a step in that direction. Finally, we would like to thank those who have supported the European Security Forum, namely NATO, the US Mission to the EU, the Compagnia di San Paolo and the Open Society Institute. We are also very happy that the Geneva Centre for Democratic Control of the Armed Forces has joined CEPS and the IISS as a co-sponsor. Michael Emerson
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