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Market Report Series: Oil 2019

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Market Report Series: Oil 2019 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The IEA examines the IEA member IEA association full spectrum of energy countries: countries: issues including oil, gas and coal supply and Australia Brazil demand, renewable Austria China energy technologies, Belgium India electricity markets, Canada Indonesia energy efficiency, access Czech Republic Morocco to energy, demand side Denmark Singapore management and much Estonia South Africa more. Through its work, Finland Thailand the IEA advocates policies France that will enhance the Germany reliability, affordability and Greece sustainability of energy in Hungary its 30 member countries, Ireland 8 association countries Italy and beyond. Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States The European Commission also participates in the work of the IEA Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t&c/ Source: IEA. All rights reserved. International Energy Agency Website: www.iea.org FOREWORD FOREWORD These are times of extraordinary change for the oil industry. Geopolitics is playing a big role again and the global economy is slowing down. Everywhere we look, new actors are emerging and certainties of past years are fading. A large part of this is due to the United States, the main driver of global oil markets, leading supply growth worldwide over the next five years. Thanks to the remarkable strength of its shale industry, the United States is triggering a rapid transformation of global markets. Before the end of our forecast, it will export more oil than the Russian Federation (“Russia”) and close in on Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest exporter – a pivotal milestone that will bring greater diversity of supply to global markets. Iraq will also reinforce its position as one of the world’s leading producers. It ranks as the world’s third-largest source of new supply to 2024 and drives growth within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). This is a story of tremendous weight which the International Energy Agency (IEA) is examining here, as well as in a forthcoming report dedicated to Iraq’s energy system. This will be released later this year in Baghdad at an event hosted by the government of Iraq. Global oil demand growth is set to slow modestly, but still averages 1.2 mb/d to 2024, meaning there is no peak demand on the horizon. While demand from the People’s Republic of China (“China”) is easing, jetfuel and petrochemicals are driving growth, as the IEA highlighted last year in the Future of Petrochemicals report. In the downstream sector, we are on the verge of one of the biggest shake ups the product markets have ever seen, with the implementation of the International Maritime Organisation’s (IMO) new rules governing bunker fuel quality in 2020. Although the industry has had several years notice, there are fears of shortfalls when the rules come into effect. Our analysis shows that refiners and shippers are relatively well prepared to respond, though the first year may bring some challenges. The IEA’s core mandate has always been energy security. Our mission has expanded over the years and the definition of energy security has also evolved beyond oil to include natural gas and electricity. But oil market analysis remains a central focus of the IEA, which we demonstrate through our vigilent analysis of market developments and their consequences. We hope this report contributes to a better understanding of the sector and helps develop policies supporting the longer- term transition to a more secure but also a more sustainable energy future. Dr. Fatih Birol Executive Director International Energy Agency reserved. rights All OIL MARKET REPORT 2019 3 IEA. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This publication was prepared by the Oil Industry and Markets Division (OIMD) of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Its main authors are Christophe Barret, Toril Bosoni, Anne Kloss, Olivier Lejeune, Peg Mackey, Kristine Petrosyan. Jing Wang, Masataka Yarita, Pierre Monferrand and Luis Fernando Rosa provided essential research and statistical support. Deven Mooneesawmy provided editorial assistance. Neil Atkinson, head of OIMD, edited the report. Keisuke Sadamori, director of the IEA’s Directorate of Energy Markets and Security, provided guidance. Other IEA colleagues provided important contributions including Ali al-Saffar, Alessandro Blasi, Mariano Berkenwald, Pierpaolo Cazzola, Davide D’Ambrosio, Araceli Fernandez Pales, Joerg Husar, Tae-Yoon Kim, Pharoah Le Feuvre, Peter Levi, Christophe McGlade, Yoko Nobuoka, Claudia Pavarini, Apostolos Petropoulos, Magda Sanocka, Sacha Scheffer, Emily Stromquist, Jacob Teter. The IEA Communications and Digital Office provided production assistance and launch support. Particular thanks to Jad Mouawad and his team; Adrien Chorlet, Astrid Dumond, Christopher Gully, Katie Lazaro, Rob Stone and Therese Walsh. For questions and comments, please contact the OIMD. For contact information, please see https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/contacts/ reserved. rights All 4 OIL MARKET REPORT 2019 IEA. TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary .................................................................................................................... 11 1. Demand .............................................................................................................................. 15 Highlights.......................................................................................................................................... 15 Global overview ................................................................................................................................ 16 Macroeconomic environment and prices ...................................................................................... 18 Continuous demand growth for petrochemicals ............................................................................ 19 IMO will temporarily boost fuel oil in the power sector ................................................................. 21 Strong Asian demand for jet fuel makes it a key contributor to growth ......................................... 24 OECD demand .................................................................................................................................. 28 OECD Americas ............................................................................................................................. 29 OECD Europe ................................................................................................................................ 30 OECD Asia Oceania ........................................................................................................................ 32 Non-OECD demand ........................................................................................................................... 33 Africa ............................................................................................................................................ 34 China ............................................................................................................................................ 35 China’s natural gas and electric vehicles ........................................................................................ 36 Other Asia ..................................................................................................................................... 38 Non-OECD Europe ......................................................................................................................... 41 Former Soviet Union ..................................................................................................................... 41 Latin America ................................................................................................................................ 43 Middle East ................................................................................................................................... 44 2. Supply ................................................................................................................................ 47 Highlights.......................................................................................................................................... 47 Global overview ................................................................................................................................ 48 Upstream investment ................................................................................................................... 49 Non-OPEC oil supply ......................................................................................................................... 51 United States sets new records, but needs higher price to maintain pace ..................................... 51 Brazil rebound around the corner ................................................................................................. 57 Tight oil developments boost Argentina ........................................................................................ 58 Mexico shifts focus back to onshore and shallow water ................................................................ 59 Guyana gears up for first oil .........................................................................................................
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