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st edition 1 st edition BRIDGING SCIENCE & DECISION MAKING ASEAN RISK MONITOR AND DISASTER MANAGEMENT REVIEW st edition 2 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The AHA Centre would like to acknowledge the following for their contribution to the first edition of ARMOR: Board of Reviewers: ARMOR is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Professor Juliana Susanto, Lancaster University, UK IGO License. All information and materials contained in the ARMOR are copyright of the Professor Riyanti Djalante, United Nations University, Japan ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on disaster management (AHA Centre), unless mentioned otherwise. Each author retains copyright for materials in their Dr. Alistair D.B. Cook, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore respective chapters. The materials may be viewed, downloaded, and printed for non-commercial use only, without any right to sell, resell, redistribute or create the derivative works therefrom. When representing the content taken from this ARMOR, you must give the appropriate credit by Board of Editors: mentioning the AHA Centre as the source of information. You must also indicate if changes were made to the original version. Adelina Kamal as the Editor-in-Chief Suggested citation of ARMOR: The AHA Centre, 2018, ASEAN Risk Monitor and Disaster Management Review (ARMOR), Dipo Summa Jakarta: ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on disaster management (AHA Centre). Available online: ahacentre.org/armor Janggam Adhityawarma Lawrence Dimailig Suggested citation of a chapter in ARMOR: Author(s) name, 2019, Chapter title, in the AHA Centre, 2019, ASEAN Risk Monitor Mizan Bisri and Disaster Management Review (ARMOR), Jakarta: ASEAN Coordinating Centre Said Faisal for Humanitarian Assistance on disaster management (AHA Centre). Available online: ahacentre.org/armor Yos Malole The AHA Centre is grateful for the funding support of the Government of COpyright by the aha centre MARCH 2019 the United Kingdom through the British Embassy in Jakarta st edition 4 5 INTRODUCTION Bridging Science and Decision Making The ASEAN Risk Monitor and Disaster Management Review (ARMOR) is important for of disaster. Chapter 3 on Why Climate Change Matters for ASEAN explores the potential several reasons. Firstly, until this point there has been no authoritative publication that threats that climate change will bring to the ASEAN region, particularly in terms of water, provides risk profile information specifically regarding the ASEAN region. Secondly, with an food, and health security. Chapter 4 on the State of Early Warning System in ASEAN ever-growing body of accumulated knowledge and information on disaster in the region, provides a snapshot of the current early warning system within ASEAN, and how it was there is an urgent need to provide critical analysis and synthesis that can inform policy tested in recent disasters. Chapter 5 Natech: The Silent and Potentially Deadly Threat in making and disaster management operations, both within the region and outside. Finally, ASEAN discusses the growing potential risk of Natech (technological incidence/disasters ARMOR will importantly become the first regular publication to showcase best practices, triggered by natural hazards) in the ASEAN region, and how ASEAN can work to mitigate trends and innovations in disaster management in ASEAN. such risks. ARMOR aims to fill these gaps. It aims to consolidate knowledge related to risk monitoring Chapter 6 on Application of Breaks for Additive Season and Trend (BFAST) for Drought and disaster management within the ASEAN region, and seeks to provide a space for the Monitoring proposes an innovative way to accurately and immediately identify drought sharing of best practices and latest research and analysis, while showcasing innovations events, that can be utilised by policy makers to engage in early and significant interventions. and inspiring disaster managers and researchers across the region and the world. Chapter 7 on Regional Knowledge Hub for Disaster Management: Strategy, Policy and Practice in ASEAN proposes options and strategies for the AHA Centre to fully realise its To achieve this status, ARMOR will serve several functions. First, the publication will role as a knowledge hub for disaster management. Chapter 8 on Regional Centrality and provide the most up-to-date risk profiles, data and trend analyses pertaining to natural the Shift of Humanitarian Landscape: The Case of ASEAN discusses the evolving roles of disasters and climate risks, based on the latest monitoring and research initiatives, to the AHA Centre by comparing two uniquely different emergency response operations – inform decision making and policy development within ASEAN. Secondly, ARMOR will super typhoon Haiyan and the earthquake and tsunami in Central Sulawesi. facilitate the sharing of best practices and lessons learnt from past operations, while also seeking to bridge the gap between research and operations within the region. Chapter 9 on Achieving the ASEAN 2025 Vision for Disaster Management: Lessons from a Worthy Journey looks back on some of the key lessons learned from ASEAN’s experience Accordingly, ARMOR supports the implementation of the ASEAN Vision 2025 on Disaster in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, and discusses options for ASEAN to Management, by taking ownership of knowledge and ensuring application of relevant explore and move forward. Chapter 10 on Utilisation of Space-based Information for disaster management science for the region. It will also provide a platform for aspiring Supporting Emergency Response and Recovery was written based on actual emergency researchers and practitioners to contribute to this regional vision, and ensure collective response experiences in which space-based information was utilised alongside direct field efforts for ASEAN to become a pioneer in disaster management. These aims are also in observation to inform operational decision making. line with the role of the AHA Centre as the network coordinator in developing disaster management-related standards, providing a platform for exchange of knowledge and best The first step of something new is always special, but is also often the most challenging. practices, and developing the next generation of regional disaster management leaders. The AHA Centre could not manage this first step without the support from numerous individuals who contributed their time and energy to ensure the launch of the first ARMOR This first edition of ARMOR will cover a wide range of topics.Chapter 1 on the Trillion publication. The AHA Centre is grateful for this support and contribution, and looking Dollar Multi-Hazard Risk Landscape in Southeast Asia will describe the risk profiles of each forward to continuing this collaboration into future editions of ARMOR. country in ASEAN. Chapter 2 on Most-at-Risk Cities in ASEAN That Must be Watched will st discuss the findings from research regarding cities in ASEAN that face considerable risks edition 6 7 1 5 9 PAGE 1 PAGE 95 PAGE 173 Trillion Dollar NATECH: The Achieving the Multi-Hazard Risk Silent and ASEAN 2025 Landscape in Potentially Deadly Vision for Disaster Southeast Asia Threat in ASEAN Management: TABLE OF Lessons from a Worthy Journey CONTENTS 2 6 10 PAGE 25 PAGE 111 PAGE 185 Most At-Risk Application Space-based Cities in ASEAN of Breaks For Information That Must be Additive Season Utilisation to Watched and Trend (BFAST) Support Emergency for Drought Response & Monitoring Recovery Bridging Science 3 7 and Decision Making PAGE 45 PAGE 125 Why Climate Regional Knowledge Change Matters Hub for Disaster for ASEAN Management: Strategy, Policy and Practice in ASEAN 4 8 PAGE 67 PAGE 147 State of Early Regional Centrality Warning Systems and the Shift of in ASEAN Humanitarian Landscape: The Case of ASEAN st edition 8 List of Tables List of Figures Page Page Chapter 1 Chapter 1 1.1. Distribution of Disasters in ASEAN 9 1.1. Risk Scores Comparison (INFORM vs RVA) 4 1.2. Overall Risk Scores Comparison 5 Chapter 2 1.3. Multi-Hazard Exposure 6 1.4. Breakdown of Disasters in ASEAN 7 2.1 Profile of Long-listed Cities 33 1.5. Distribution of Disasters in ASEAN 8 2.2. Measurement Indicators and Scoring Grade for Key Infrastructures 37 1.6. Population Exposed to Floods 10 and Agglomerate Study Area 1.7. Population Exposed to Tropical Cyclones 11 2.3. Distribution of ASEAN’s Top 56 Cities Most At-Risk: per AMS and 38 1.8. Landslide Hazard Exposure Zones 12 Hazard type 1.9. Volcanic Hazard Exposure Zones 13 1.10. Earthquake Hazard Exposure Zones 14 Chapter 3 1.11. Vulnerability Index 15 1.12. Lack of Coping Capacity Index 17 3.1. Impact of elements of climate change on aquaculture and potential 54 1.13. World Governance Indicators for ASEAN Countries 18 adaptive measures 1.14. Risk Score Index 19 1.15. Resilience Index 20 Chapter 4 1.16. Multi-hazard Risk Results 21 4.1. Components of Early Warning System 71 Chapter 2 4.2. Type and Cause of Floods 76 4.3. Matrix of Functional Early Warning System in ASEAN 79 2.1. Preliminary Risk Assessment Steps 29 4.4. Classification of Early Warning Components in ASEAN Countries 80 2.2. Distribution of Candidate Cities per-list 31 4.5. Functional Regional Early Warning System 83 2.3. Population Distribution of Long-listed Cities 33 2.4. Locations of Long-listed Cities 34 Chapter 6 2.5. Location of Regional Seaports and Airports 35 2.6. Locations and Numbers of Considered industrial Areas 36 6.1. BFAST Parameters Used 116 2.7. Locations of ASEAN’s Top 56 Cities Most-at-Risk 39 Chapter 8 Chapter 3 8.1. Coordination Characteristics of ASEAN 168 3.1. Global annual mean surface temperature change 46 3.2. GtCO2 emissions between 1850 to 2012 47 Chapter 10 3.3. Examples of climate change impacts with global temperature 49 3.4. Areas of physical and economic water scarcity 51 10.1.Summary of Sentinel Asia Membership in ASEAN Region 188 3.5.