Continuous Registration: Components of Change

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Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary ...... i

Introduction ...... i

Components of Change in the Register ...... i

Expected Transactions 2006-2007 ...... ii

Net Monthly Changes: December 2006 to June 2007 ...... iii

I Background...... 1

Introduction ...... 1

Structure of the Report...... 4

II Components of Change in the Register ...... 5

Introduction ...... 5

Key Points Summary...... 5

The Components of Population Change ...... 6

Registration Effects: Comprehensiveness and Currency...... 8

Change in the Register: Risks and Challenges...... 10

Transactions and Activity Indicators...... 13

III Transactions: Expected Values 2006-07 ...... 17

Introduction ...... 17

Key Points Summary...... 17

The 2006 Canvass...... 18

Reductions ...... 20

Different address...... 21

New from voting age population (VAP) ...... 26

Attainers...... 28

IV Net Monthly Changes: December 2006-June 2007 ...... 29

Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Introduction ...... 29

Key Points Summary...... 29

Northern Ireland ...... 30

Parliamentary Constituencies ...... 33

Wards...... 36

V Concluding Remarks...... 41

Introduction ...... 41

Indicators ...... 41

Expected Values ...... 42

Net Change: The Trend to Date...... 43

References...... 45

Appendix A Additional Material ...... 47

Appendix B Additional Material: Electoral Wards ...... 63

Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Executive Summary

Introduction

This is the ninth report in an ongoing desk research programme to assist the Electoral Commission in meeting its statutory duty to keep under review and, from time to time, submit reports to government on electoral law and practice in Northern Ireland with respect to the Electoral Fraud (Northern Ireland) Act 2002 (‘the 2002 Act’).

Following the enactment of the Miscellaneous Provisions (Northern Ireland) Act 2006 (‘the 2006 Act’), the Government has removed the requirement for an annual canvass in favour of a system of continuous registration.

When the Minister announced, in November 2004, the intention to introduce continuous registration, it was stated that:

Our goal is an electoral register that is both as accurate and as comprehensive as possible.

Within that context, this report focuses on the ongoing monitoring of the risks attached to meeting the accuracy and comprehensiveness objectives. In particular, attention is directed towards what may be called ‘diagnostic indicators’ for monitoring and assessing the risk that the Register is, or is not, keeping pace with population change.

The report also provides an update on changes to date in the Register under continuous registration.

Components of Change in the Register

The components of population change, including migration, attainers and deaths, will vary in their effects on the Register. Internal population movements, resulting from changes of address within Northern Ireland, present a particular challenge to maintaining the currency of the Register.

The change in the Register over a given period of time will be driven by: • Changes notified to the EONI.

• Success in growing the Register by stimulating new registrations from among those who are entitled but are not currently registered.

These changes will in turn generate one or more transactions on the Register. Transactions provide a source of data for indicators for monitoring risks to currency and comprehensiveness, as follows: • Transfers due to changes of address can signal the extent to which the Register is keeping up to date with internal population

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movements. A low volume of transfers relative to what can be expected from past experience would signal a risk that the Register is failing to remain current and up to date.

• Additions due to those newly registering and attainers provide an indicator for success in growing the Register.

• The net change in the Register – the difference between transactions that increase the Register and those that decrease the Register – will help to monitor comprehensiveness, through comparisons with changes in the eligible population.

Expected Transactions 2006-2007

Expected volumes of transactions relating to maintaining currency and growing the Register over the period from December 2006 to December 2007 are identified from an analysis of the components of change in the 2005 and 2006 canvasses. These expected values can serve as a basis for comparison with the actual numbers of transactions.

The following are the key findings.

Currency

• Over the period from 1 December 2006 to 1 December 2007, the expected volume of transfers due to address changes is at least five per cent of the December 2006 Register. This equates to over 54,000 transfers expected to occur in that period.

• If the actual out-turn is less than the minimum expected volume, this would signify an accumulation of incorrect address details and a risk of failure to maintain the currency of the Register.

• The expected volume of address changes will vary from one area to another. Diagnostic monitoring of risks to the currency of the Register will have a geographic focus.

Growing the Register

• The 2006 canvass resulted in the registration of over 53,000 voting- age persons, who had not been on the September 2006 pre- canvass Register. This provides an initial benchmark for the first year of efforts to grow the Register under continuous registration.

• These new registrations amounted to 4.6 per cent of the September 2006 Register. The inflow rate varied by Electoral Ward, from over 12 per cent to 1.6 per cent.

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• The highest inflow rates were observed in urban areas characterised by high population turnover and immigration. While the annual canvass provided a visible mechanism for stimulating new registrations, the challenge for continuous registration will be to introduce new routes to registration to avoid loss of comprehensiveness in such areas.

• Based on the outcome from the 2006 canvass, the expected number of new attainers to be added over the period to 1 December 2007 is 11,000, representing 40 per cent of all aged under-18.

Net Monthly Changes: December 2006 to June 2007

From December 2006 to June 2007, the NI Electoral Register increased from 1,075,116 to 1,122,105, a net gain of almost 47,000, or +4.4 per cent. The net gain was accrued as follows:

• The late returns effect – the 1 January 2007 Register showed a net gain of 15,000 entries (+1.4 per cent).

• The looming election effect – in the lead-up to the March 2007 Assembly Elections, a net additional 31,000 entries were added to the Register, providing a 2.9 per cent boost.

• The zero growth stage - since April 2007, the Register has been flat, showing no net change in both May and June.

The pattern of change in the Electoral Register in the first six months of continuous registration differs little from the trend in previous years under rolling registration.

Extrapolating from these previous trends, the prognosis is that the Register will remain at its present level or on a gently declining gradient through the summer months and into September 2007, if not beyond to December 2007.

The net changes by Parliamentary Constituency have broadly tracked the overall NI trends.

The net change effects have been most pronounced in Belfast West, where the Register has expanded by 12 per cent. Mainly, this has been due to a much larger looming election effect by comparison with other constituencies.

At Electoral Ward level, the most deprived areas have recorded the largest gains since December 2006. As a consequence, there has been a narrowing of the gap in registration rates between the most deprived areas and the rest of Northern Ireland.

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However, this largely reflected the geographical pattern of the looming election effect. Along with the rest of Northern Ireland, the most deprived areas have also entered a zero growth phase since April 2007. This poses the question of how the registration rate gap in the most deprived areas might be further closed.

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I Background

Introduction

1.1 This is the ninth report in an ongoing desk research programme to assist the Electoral Commission in meeting its statutory duty to keep under review and, from time to time, submit reports to government on electoral law and practice in Northern Ireland with respect to the Electoral Fraud (Northern Ireland) Act 2002 (‘the 2002 Act’)1.

1.2 Prior to the 2002 Act, electoral registration was on a household basis. All members of a household were registered on a single form distributed during an annual canvass conducted in the period from September to November.

1.3 Under the 2002 Act, household registration was abolished and replaced by individual registration2. In Northern Ireland, persons who are eligible to vote must now register on a personal basis. Three personal identifiers must be provided to be registered: date of birth, signature and National Insurance number (NINO). This method of registering voters was introduced “to prevent individuals no longer resident at a particular address being incorrectly recorded as resident, and to deal with concerns about false entries” (NIO, 2005).

1.4 The requirement to conduct an annual canvass was retained under the 2002 Act. To help ensure the accuracy of the Register, the practice of carrying forward, for twelve months, the names of those who did not re- register during the annual canvass was discontinued. Consequently, the number of entries on the first Register to be compiled under individual registration (December 2002) was 10 per cent lower than the previous Register under household registration.

1.5 However, there soon emerged a downward trend in the Electoral Register under individual registration3. Primarily, this was because a substantial proportion of electors, typically around nine per cent, did not re-register during the annual canvass. In successive canvasses, from 2002 to 2006, the reduction in the Register due to this canvass non-response effect has not been offset by the registration of new electors, such as persons attaining voting age.

1 See Table A1.1 in Appendix A for a list of previous reports and the topics covered to date.

2 Individual registration only applies to Northern Ireland. Registration in the rest of the UK remains on a household basis.

3 See the first report in this series, dated June 2004.

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1.6 The reinstatement of persons not responding to the canvass, in April 2005 and December 2005, temporarily offset the negative canvass effect. However, this is likely to have led to the introduction of inaccuracies in those Registers, such as incorrect address details.

1.7 In order to counteract the effect of canvass non-response, the Government has now removed the requirement for an annual canvass in favour of a system of continuous registration, through the enactment of the Miscellaneous Provisions (Northern Ireland) Act 2006 (‘the 2006 Act’).

1.8 As set out in the Government’s consulation document issued prior to the new legislation, the ending of the annual canvass is designed to achieve the following aim (NIO, 2005):

Increase the number of citizens registering to vote while maintaining the current high level of accuracy in the register, in particular by lifting the burden on electors and refocusing resources on more effectively targeting those not registered.

1.9 The last annual canvass took place in the period from September to November 2006, culminating in the publication of the December 2006 Register. There will be no annual canvass in 2007. Under the legislation, a canvass must be conducted in 2010, unless the the Secretary of State declares otherwise, and every tenth year thereafter4.

1.10 The legislation makes provision for a canvass to be conducted in an intervening year if:

a) on or before 15th April in that year, the Chief Electoral Officer for Northern Ireland has made a recommendation in favour of a canvass being conducted in that year for the purpose of meeting the relevant registration objectives, and

b) the Secretary of State, having considered the recommendation, has notified the Chief Electoral Officer that he is satisfied that the public interest requires a canvass to be conducted for that purpose.

1.11 The relevant registration objectives are set out in Box 1.A. The legislation does not set out explicit or quantified criteria for determining whether a canvass is required in an intervening year. However, as noted in the 2007- 2010 Corporate Plan of the Electoral Office for Northern Ireland (EONI), “Accurate and comprehensive registers are the foundation of a sound electoral process”. Thus, under the heading of registration, the EONI’s strategic aims for the period 2007-2010 are as follows:

4 Miscellaneous Provisions (Northern Ireland) Act 2006, Section 3. If no canvass is conducted before the end of 2015, a canvass must be conducted in 2016.

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Box 1.A Registration objectives - section 4, Miscellaneous Provisions Act 2006

The relevant registration objectives are to secure, so far as reasonably practicable - a) that every person who is entitled to be registered in a register is registered in it,

b) that no person who is not entitled to be registered in a register is registered in it, and

c) that none of the required information relating to any person registered in a register is false.

"The required information" means the following - a) the person's name;

b) the person's qualifying address;

c) the person's date of birth;

d) subject to subsections (5) and (6), the person's signature;

e) the person's national insurance number or a statement that he does not have one.

• To maintain electoral registers that are at least as accurate and comprehensive as those published following the canvass in 2006.

• To increase registration levels amongst the disadvantaged, the young, the disabled and those from ethnic minorities.

1.12 As documented in the fourth report in this series5, the components of change in the population, due to migration flows and residential moves between locations within Northern Ireland, will pose challenges in maintaining the accuracy of the Register and enhancing comprehensiveness. Within that context, this report focuses on the ongoing monitoring of the risks attached to meeting the accuracy and comprehensiveness objectives.

5 An Assessment of the Impact of the Ending of the Annual Canvass, dated December 2005.

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1.13 In particular, attention is directed towards what may be called ‘diagnostic indicators’ for monitoring and assessing the risk that the Register is, or is not, keeping pace with population change, both local and regional.

1.14 The report also provides an update on changes to date in the Register under continuous registration.

Structure of the Report

1.15 Section 2 sets out a framework of indicators for monitoring risks to currency and comprehensiveness, based on the recording of transactions associated with different types of change on the Register, such as transfers by those moving from one address to another.

1.16 Section 3 examines the components of change in the Register. The key issue is the changes that can be expected over the period from December 2006 to December 2007. These expected volumes of change help to quantify the challenge faced in maintaining an accurate and comprehensive Register in the first year of continuous registration. They also serve as a basis for comparison with the actual or observed volumes of change on the Register, for ongoing monitoring of risks to comprehensivness and currency.

1.17 In order to establish the expected volumes of change, the analysis in this Section draws on the experience of the 2005 and 2006 canvasses. For example, the proportion of those re-registering at a different address gives an indication of the potential scale of address changes due to residential relocation.

1.18 Section 4 assesses the actual change in the Register in the early months of continuous registration, through to June 2007. For reasons of data availability, the focus is on net monthly changes in the Register. The March 2007 Assembly Elections can clearly be seen to have spurred registrations in January and February 2007. This was entirely to be expected from experience in previous years. It is, however, of interest to see how the Register has evolved since the looming election effect.

1.19 Section 5 of the report presents the concluding remarks.

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II Components of Change in the Register

Introduction

When the Minister announced in November 2004 the intention to introduce continuous registration, it was stated that: Our goal is an electoral register that is both as accurate and as comprehensive as possible.

Within that context, this Section examines the risks to the accuracy and comprehensiveness of the Register associated with the components of population change. The objective is to propose a set of ‘diagnostic’ indicators for risk assessment, based on transactions and activity on the Register. Key Points Summary

The change in the Register over a given period of time will be driven by: changes notified to the EONI; and success in growing the Register by stimulating new registrations from among those who are entitled but are not currently registered.

These changes will in turn generate one or more transactions on the Register, providing a source of data for indicators for ongoing monitoring of risks to currency and comprehensiveness, as follows:

• Transfers due to changes of address can signal the extent to which the Register is keeping up to date with internal population movements. A low volume of transfers relative to what can be expected from past experience would signal a risk that the Register is failing to remain current and up to date.

• Additions due to those newly registering and attainers provide an indicator for success in growing the Register.

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The Components of Population Change

2.1 The criteria for inclusion in the Electoral Register are set out in Box 2.A below. Clearly, the total population meeting the eligibility criteria is not static. From one year to the next, the resident population will change as people migrate into or out of Northern Ireland, attain voting age or die. These are the components of population change.

Box 2.A Eligibility for inclusion in the register of electors

Each person must register at the address where he or she is resident if they are: • A British citizen, Irish citizen, Commonwealth citizen or citizen of a Member State of the European Union. • Of voting age (18) or will reach voting age whilst the current Register is in force. • Not subject to any legal incapacity to vote e.g. convicted prisoners. In addition, each person must have one of the following qualifications: • Been resident in Northern Ireland during the whole of the previous three months; (casual absences may be ignored e.g. on holiday or working abroad for a short period); or, • made a service declaration which is still in force; or, made an overseas citizen's declaration which is still in force; or, • be a merchant seaman.

Source: EONI.

2.2 Whether the population grows or declines over the course of a year will reflect the net balance between the various components of change. Regarding the population resident in Northern Ireland as a whole, the components can be distinguished according to whether they increase or decrease the population (see Figure 1.1).

2.3 The components which increase the resident population of Northern Ireland are as follows:

• New attainers. Additions to the voting age population (VAP) due to the ageing of persons aged 17 into the population aged 18+.

• In-migration from locations outside Northern Ireland, including other parts of the UK and from abroad.

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Figure 2.1 The Components of Population Change: Population and registration effects

Component Population effect Registration effect Comprehensiveness Currency % registering Attainers Plus 2.1% pa in year of attainment

% notified to Minus Deaths EONI 1.1% pa

% registering In-migration Plus 1.2% pa

% not notifying % notifying Minus EONI (if EONI (if Out-migration 1.3% pa registered) registered)

Effects at DEA Zero at NI level % notifying Internal and PC levels Circa 8% EONI (if population Zero at NI change pa registered) movements level

2.4 The components which decrease the population resident in Northern Ireland are as follows:

• Out-migration of persons leaving Northern Ireland to live elsewhere, including other parts of the UK as well as abroad.

• Deaths.

2.5 The difference between the components which increase the population and those which decrease the population gives the net change in the population resident in Northern Ireland over the course of, say, one year.

2.6 Internal population movements occur when those already resident in Northern Ireland re-locate due to factors such as education and training, new household formation, a change in jobs or changes in family size which lead to new housing needs. These internal movements do not affect the total number of eligible voters in Northern Ireland as a whole. Clearly, however, they will affect the distribution of the population within Northern Ireland. For example, the Belfast City Council area has historically tended to lose population due to the movement of households to adjacent suburban Districts.

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2.7 Furthermore, the number of internal population movements in any one year is substantial. According to the 2001 Census of Population, about eight per cent of the population lived at a different address in March 2001 (when the Census was taken) compared to their usual residence one year previously. Of those who moved within Northern Ireland, a little under one in four changed address within the same Electoral Ward, with a further 47 per cent of moves being within the same District Council (Figure 1.2). A majority of moves (70 per cent) were within the same Parliamentary Constituency.

Figure 2.2 Population movements - 2001 Per cent of persons changing address compared to where lived 1 year previously

Rest of world 5% Rest of UK Same Ward 8% 21%

Elsewhere NI 25%

Same District Council 41%

Source: NISRA, Census of Population 2001.

2.8 The magnitude of these internal poplation movements varied considerably at Ward level, from 39 per cent in Botanic (South Belfast) to 2.5 per cent in Drum Manor (Mid Ulster). In general, the highest rates of population turnover were recorded in urban locations, typically inner city and/or with high student and young populations (see Table A2.1 for the 20 highest rates at Ward level). By contrast, the lowest rates occurred more in rural than in urban locations (see Table A2.2).

Registration Effects: Comprehensiveness and Currency

2.9 The components of population change will vary in their effects on the Electoral Register. As illustrated in Figure 1.1, two main effects can be distinguished, that is, comprehensiveness and currency6:

• Comprehensiveness can be measured by the eligible voter registration rate; that is, the number of entries on the Electoral Register as a percentage of the eligible voter population.

6 See http://aceproject.org/ace-en/topics/vr/vr20 for a discussion of performance criteria for electoral registration:

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• The currency criterion refers to the extent to which the address and other details of those on the Electoral Register are up to date and correct.

2.10 The comprehensiveness criterion can be related directly to the registration objective of seeking to ensure “that every person who is entitled to be registered in a register is registered in it”.

2.11 The currency criterion can be viewed as one element in the accuracy of the Electoral Register. This is important in the utility and effectiveness of the Register7, particularly in facilitating voting at elections.

2.12 For example, where a person has changed address, and whose documents are in their old address, he or she must vote at the Polling Station to which they are assigned, based on the address shown on the Electoral Register. There is a risk, however, that turnout by registered electors who have moved may be affected by the distance from their assigned Polling Station.

2.13 In addition, when continuous registration was announced, the Minister announced the following intention:

Our goal is an electoral register that is both as accurate and as comprehensive as possible.

2.14 Clearly, the criteria of comprehensiveness and currency are relevant to the performance of the Electoral Register. It is useful, therefore, to examine the risks posed by the components of population change to the effectiveness of the Electoral Register in terms of these criteria.

2.15 The net change components that serve to increase the population have obvious implications for the comprehensiveness of the Register. If new attainers and eligible in-migrants do not seek registration, this would adversely affect the comprehensiveness of the Register. In that scenario, the eligible population would be increasing faster than the number on the Electoral Register, leading to a decline in the eligible voter registration rate

2.16 The components of change which decrease the population have their most direct effects on the currency criterion. If the EONI is not notified of deaths and out-migration, the relevant entries will no longer be current.

7 In its review of the effectiveness of the Australian Electoral Roll, the Australian National Audit Office defined an accurate roll as one that contains correct and up to date information relating to individuals (ANAO, 2002). Similarly, the Australian Electoral Commission’s performance indicator for accuracy is measured by the percentage of persons who are enrolled at the correct address (AEC, 2006). Update Report Number 4 provides further discussion of the dimensions of accuracy of the register.

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2.17 These components also have an indirect effect on the comprehensiveness criterion. For example, if out-migrants from Northern Ireland were to no longer satisfy the qualification criteria, this would inflate the measured registration rate so long as their original entries remained on the Register 8.

2.18 Internal population movements also have direct implications for the currency criterion. If people changing location do not notify the EONI, there will be a build-up of incorrect current address details on the Register.

2.19 In the fourth report in this series, it was estimated that, in the absence of mechanisms for keeping track of such changes, the currency of the Register could potentially decline by as much as one-third over a five-year period. This would correspond to in the region of 350-400,000 incorrect address details.

2.20 Internal population movements do not affect the comprehensiveness of the Register for Northern Ireland as a whole. However, to the extent that they cross Ward and Constituency boundaries, net changes in population due to such movements may vary from one area to another, thereby affecting the comprehensiveness of the Register when measured at Parliamentary Constituency, District Electoral Area (DEA) and Ward levels.

2.21 If the EONI is not made aware of address changes, the registration rate for areas losing population would be over-stated while the rate for areas gaining in population would be under-stated.

Change in the Register: Risks and Challenges

2.22 The components of population change directly affect the components of change in the Register, as shown in Figure 1.2. As discussed above, the risks posed to the comprehensiveness and currency of the Register will vary from one component of change to another. Similarly, the challenges involved in managing these risks will vary from one component of change to another9.

2.23 For example, well-established arrangements are already in place by which the EONI is notified by the General Register Office (GRO) of deaths occurring in Northern Ireland.

8 In such a situation, the eligible population level would decrease but the Register would remain unchanged.

9 See also Section 2, Update Regport Number 4, for a detailed discussion of these challenges.

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Figure 2.3 The components of change in the Register: Risks and challenges

Change in the Risks and challenges Register

Deaths (-) Arrangements already in place

Out-migration (-) Very difficult to track. If EONI not notified, Register may contain non-qualifying entries. If this occurs, Register will appear more comprehensive than is actually the case.

Stayers

If EONI not notified, Register suffers reduction in currency. Implications for utility of Register Movers during Elections – will movers know where Polling Station is located? Will they travel?

VAP new (+) Growing the Register by: •Not previously •Targeting under-registered groups registered •Ensuring qualifying new in-migrants register to •In-migration vote

New attainers (+) Encouraging registration

2.24 By contrast, it will be necessary to establish new arrangements to enable the EONI to keep track of address changes as these occur. The shape of these new arrangements has been outlined by the EONI in a press release dated 1 May 2007 (Box 2.B).

2.25 Continuous registration has only recently been introduced and it will take time for the new arrangements to become fully established. However, the criteria of comprehensiveness and currency pose different challenges under continuous registration than was the case with the previous annual canvass.

2.26 Regarding the currency criterion, the annual canvass afforded registered electors the opportunity to update their address and other relevant details on a regular basis, thereby removing inaccuracies that had accumulated due to changes of address over the lifetime of the previous Register. For example, in the analysis of the components of change in the 2005 canvass, Update Report Number 5 found that five per cent of those who re- registered did so at a different address compared to the previous Register. Except in years where a canvass is undertaken, this mechanism for managing the accuracy of the Register is not available under continuous registration.

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Box 2.B Continuous registration: New arrangements

New regulations will empower the Chief Electoral Officer to obtain certain information from district councils, the Housing Executive, the Registrar General of Births and Deaths in Northern Ireland, the Northern Ireland Central Services Agency and the Department of Work and Pensions.

• District councils and the NIHE will provide names and addresses of the current and former occupants of buildings and of changes of use of buildings.

• The Registrar General will provide name, address and date of birth and death information on those who have died.

• The Department of Work and Pensions, who are responsible for the National Insurance Scheme, will provide information on those attaining registration age and National Insurance numbers of all those in Northern Ireland.

• The Central Services Agency, who keep the central records of all those who use the Health Service in Northern Ireland, will provide information on changes of name or address and of deaths.

Source: EONI, Press Release dated 1 May 2007.

2.27 The annual canvass also provided a means of attracting new registrations, including those attaining the voting age. For example, in the 2005 canvass, new electors – who had not been on the previous Register – accounted for six per cent of the December 2005 Register. In the era of continuous registration, the challenge is to stimulate new registrations on an ongoing basis.

2.28 For these reasons, it is useful to consider the ongoing monitoring of the risks attached to the accuracy and comprehensiveness of the Register, including the following:

• Currency10 - Is the Register keeping up to date with address changes due to internal population movements?

10 As noted in paragraph 2.11 above, currency can be viewed as one dimension of accuracy in a system of continuous registration. For example, the ACE Electoral Knowledge Network states that: “With a continuous voters list, accuracy often depends on the currency of data – that is, whether the information is updated in timely fashion … such as the addresses of voters listed in the register”. See also footnote 7 above regarding the definition of accuracy used by the Australian Electoral Commission.

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• Comprehensiveness - Is the Register keeping pace with the net change in the eligible population?

2.29 Comprehensiveness risks can be monitored by comparing the net change in the Register with estimates for the growth in the eligible population. For example, between mid-2002 and mid-2005, the population aged 18+ expanded at a rate of 1.1 per cent per annum and is expected to continue growing11. Against that backdrop, a static Register would signal a high risk of failure to maintain comprehensiveness.

2.30 Risks to the currency of the Register are more difficult to monitor. However, by focusing on changes within the Register, it is possible to construct what may be called ‘diagnostic’ indicators for assessing the risk that the Register may be losing currency.

Transactions and Activity Indicators

2.31 The introduction of continuous registration means that the change in the Register from, say, December 2006 to December 2007, will be determined by the accumulation of ongoing changes which are notified to the EONI. As illustrated in Figure 2.4, these changes will generate one or more transactions on the Register. These transactions in turn provide a source of data for constructing indicators for monitoring risks to currency and comprehensiveness.

2.32 Thus, if a person changes his or her address and the EONI is notified, this will result in two transactions on the Register (Figure 2.4):

• A deletion from the Register at the person’s previous address. The record to be deleted is flagged as ‘T’, for transfer.

• An addition to the Register at the person’s new address.

11 The published population estimates do not distinguish the eligible population aged 18+. Clearly, if all of the growth was due to immigration by ineligible persons, the comprehensiveness of the Register would be unaffected. However, the available data indicate that the population aged 18+ has been growing both through natural increase and immigration. For example, from mid-2004 to mid-2005, the estimated population aged 18+ grew by almost 17,000 (+1.3 per cent). Based on the available data, the majority of the growth was due to ‘natural increase’ i.e. the number of persons aged 17 in mid-2004 and ageing into the population aged 18+ over the period from mid-2004 to mid- 2005 was in excess of deaths amongst the adult population in the same period. This factor accounted for about 60-70 per cent of the change in the population aged 18+. The remainder of the growth was accounted for by in-migration. About 40 per cent of in- migrants in 2004-05 originated from Great Britain or the Republic of Ireland. The remainder came from the rest of the world. There is some evidence that a large proportion of the rest of the world immigrants came from other EU countries, following the accession of eight Central and East European countries in May 2004 (see the discussion in Section 3, Update Report No 8).

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Figure 2.4 The change in the Register and transaction effects

December December Transactions 2006 2007

Deaths (-) Deletions (D)

Out-migration (-) Deletions (R)

Registered No change Stayers

Change of address Movers •Deletion at old (T) •Addition at new (A) VAP new (+) Entitled Not •Not previously Additions (A) Registered (ENR) registered •In-migration

New attainers (+) Additions (A)

2.33 The fact that changes of address result in a pair of offsetting transactions on the Register means that the total number of such transfers can be monitored e.g. on a monthly basis, and/or reviewed annually. The interpretation of an indicator for transfers would clearly require some basis for comparison, that is:

• What volume of transfers would be expected if the Register was keeping up to date with internal population movements?

2.34 One option for specifiying an expected volume of transfers, against which the actual out-turn could be compared, is to use the findings from the 2001 Census of Population. As noted above, eight per cent of the March 2001 population lived in a different address in Northern Ireland compared to one year previously.

2.35 However, the age profile of movers in the 2001 Census was highly skewed towards the younger age bands (Figure A2.1). As the available data indicate that the younger age bands are under-represented in the Register by comparison with the population, this would in turn suggest that a comparator drawn from the Census of Population may over-state the number of transfers that would be expected on the Register over a given period of time.

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2.36 For that reason, the next Section in this report examines the components of change in the Register at the 2005 and 2006 canvasses to help in identifying an expected volume of transfers on the Register.

2.37 The transactions that occur on the Register could also be used to derive an indicator for growing the Register i.e. additions due to those newly registering and attainers. However, additions are not separately distinguished according to the type of transaction i.e. those that grow the Register and those that ensue from transfers. It is nonetheless useful to consider the volume of new electors that resulted from the 2005 and 2006 canvasses and which might therefore be expected from ongoing efforts to stimulate voter registration. This topic is addressed in the next Section of this report.

2.38 The net change in the Register will result from the difference between transactions that increase the Register and those that decrease the Register, that is:

• Deletions due to e.g. deaths, flagged by ‘D’ on the Register. Out- migration can result in a deletion, flagged as ‘R’.

• Additions due to e.g. attainers and persons newly registering.

2.39 The net change indicator is easily calculated as the monthly change in the total number of entries on the Register. This is the focus of Section 4 in this report.

Page 15 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Page 16 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

III Transactions: Expected Values 2006-07

Introduction

The primary objective of this Section is to specify expected volumes of transactions over the period from December 2006 to December 2007, as these relate to maintaining currency and growing the Register. These expected values can serve as a basis for comparison with the actual out- turns for the transactions indicators specified in Section 2 above. The expected values are derived from an analysis of the 2005 and 2006 canvasses, which provide information on key components of change in the Register.

Key Points Summary

Currency • Over the period from 1 December 2006 to 1 December 2007, the expected volume of transfers due to address changes is at least five per cent of the December 2006 Register. This equates to over 54,000 transfers expected to occur in that period.

• If the actual out-turn is less than the minimum expected volume, this would signify an accumulation of incorrect address details and a risk of failure to maintain the currency of the Register.

• The expected volume of address changes will vary from one area to another. Diagnostic monitoring of risks to the currency of the Register will have a geographic focus.

Growing the Register

• The 2006 canvass resulted in the registration of over 53,000 voting- age persons, who had not been on the September 2006 pre-canvass Register. This provides an initial benchmark for the first year of efforts to grow the Register under continuous registration.

• These new registrations amounted to 4.6 per cent of the September 2006 Register. The inflow rate varied by Electoral Ward, from over 12 per cent to 1.6 per cent. The highest rates were observed in urban areas characterised by high population turnover and immigration. The challenge for continuous registration will be to introduce new routes to registration to avoid loss of comprehensiveness in such areas.

• Based on the outcome from the 2006 canvass, the expected number of new attainers to be added over the period to 1 December 2007 is 11,000, representing 40 per cent of attainers.

Page 17 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

The 2006 Canvass

3.1 The 2006 canvass commenced in September of that year and concluded in mid-November. Seven per cent of the 1.156m entries on the September 2006 Register, which formed the starting point for the canvass, had been reinstated in December 2005 due to not having re-registered during the previous 2005 canvass and were still in that category as of September 200612 (Figure 3.1). The remaining 1.078m entries had registered during the 2005 canvass or through rolling registration from December 2005 to September 2006.

3.2 The changes to the Register that occurred following the 2006 canvass are shown in Figure 3.113. Also shown for comparison purposes are the changes following the 2005 canvass. The following points can be noted.

3.3 Canvass non-response. Almost nine per cent of the September 2006 Register did not re-register in the course of the 2005 canvass. These individuals were not re-instated. However, the move to continuous registration removes canvass non-response as a source of decline in the Register, at least until a canvass is held under the terms of section 3 of the Miscellaneous Provisions (Northern Ireland) Act 2006. This component of change is briefly considered below, as patterns of canvass non-response can serve as a useful indicator for geographic targeting of efforts to grow the Register.

3.4 Different address. As discussed in Update Report Number 2, under the old system, relatively few people made use of rolling registration to update their address details in the period between annual canvasses. Instead, persons moving address would appear to have relied mainly on the annual canvass to notify the EONI of the change in their details.

3.5 Furthermore, the use of the annual canvass for that purpose would appear to have been relatively stable; in the 2006 canvass, slightly over four per cent re-registered at a different address, not much different from the 2005 canvass (4.6 per cent).

3.6 For both of these reasons, the volume of address changes resulting from the annual canvass is likely to represent a good indicator for the volume that would be expected under continuous registration, in the event that all such changes were notified.

12 The geographical pattern in the December 2005 reinstated was examined in detail, as an indicator of canvass non-response, in Update Report Number 7. The response of those who were reinstated in December 2005 and still in that category as of September 2006 has been examined in Update Report Number 8.

13 See also Table A3.1 for the changes by Parliamentary Constituency and Table B3.1 for the changes by Electoral Ward.

Page 18 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Figure 3.1 The components of change in the 2006 Canvass

September December % of Sept Canvass ‘05 2006 2006 ‘06 Base comparison 3.7% 3.0% Reinstated 42,416 Removed Dec 2005 78,904 36,488 Re- 3.2% 3.1% registered

102,539 Did not re- 8.9% 8.4% register

Re- registered at 1,077,585 925,678 80.0% 80.8% canvass – same 975,046 address

Different 49,368 4.3% 4.6% address

Base = 1,156,489 VAP new 53,138 from ‘06 4.6% 4.0% canvass 63,925

Attainers at 0.9% 0.7% 10,787 1 Dec 06

3.7 New from canvass. In both the 2005 and 2006 canvasses, new voting age electors added between 4-5 per cent to the base September Register. One reason for this may be that the annual canvass presented a highly visible opportunity for growing the Register. The volume of new registrations stimulated by the canvass can therefore represent an initial benchmark for efforts to grow the Register under continuous registration.

3.8 Attainers. These are persons who are aged under-18 at the time of the canvass, but who attained voting age over the one-year lifetime of the Register, under the old system. The number of attainers added less than one per cent to the Register in both 2005 and 2006. However, it is clearly important in sustaining the comprehensiveness of the Register to attract young people in that age group; the available survey evidence suggests that registration rates are below average amongst those aged 18-24.

3.9 Canvass 2005 comparison. The pattern of changes to the Register following the 2006 canvass was very similar to 2005. This would suggest a degree of stability in the associated patterns and underlying behaviour.

Page 19 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Reductions

3.10 The Register published on 1 December 2006 contained seven per cent fewer entries by comparison with the September 2006 Register14. About half of the decline was due to the removal of entries that had been reinstated in December 2005. Reinstatement was not used following the 2006 canvass and hence the 8.9 per cent who did not re-register fed directly through to the fall in the Register.

3.11 In combination, removal of the reinstated and those who did not re-register amounted to 12.5 per cent of the entries on the base September 2006 Register. At Parliamentary Constituency level, the reductions ranged from 10.9 per cent in Upper Bann to over 20 per cent in Belfast West. As will be seen in Section 3 below, the large fall in Belfast West was partially reversed in the months leading up to the March 2007 Assembly Elections.

Figure 3.2 Canvass 2006: Reductions in the Register Per cent of September 2006 base

Belfast East Belfast North Belfast South Belfast West East Antrim East Londonderry Fermanagh & South Tyrone Foyle Did not re- Lagan Valley register Mid Ulster New ry & Armagh Reinstated North Antrim Dec 05 & North Dow n South Antrim removed South Down Strangford Upper Bann West Tyrone N. Ireland

0 2 4 6 8 10121416182022 Per cent

Source: EONI.

3.12 Nonetheless, it was interesting that the geographic pattern of non-response in the 2006 canvass was very similar to the 2005 canvass (see Figure A3.1 for a comparison by Electoral Ward). Thus, the socio-demographic patterns of non-response highlighted in Update Report Number 7 would appear to remain valid.

3.13 The stability in the geographic patterns of non-response can be illustrated by comparing the reductions in the 2005 and 2006 canvasses by areas of deprivation. In both canvass periods, the largest reductions were seen in the most deprived Wards (Figure 3.3).

14 See Table A3.2 for net changes by Parliamentary Constituency, as well as additions and reductions.

Page 20 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Figure 3.3 Did not re-register/removed by deciles of deprivation Per cent of base

18 2006 canvass 16 2005 14

Per cent Per Canvass 12

8 1 - Most deprived 3 5 7 9 2 4 6 8 10 - Least deprived Deciles of multiple deprivation

Sources: EONI; NISRA.

3.14 The ending of the annual canvass may serve to protect these more deprived areas from further such falls. But the reductions in registration levels that have already occurred following the 2006 canvass highlights the need for efforts to grow the Register in the areas that suffered the largest falls in the 2006 canvass.

Different address

3.15 As noted above, the number of persons re-registering with a change of address can serve as a measure for the expected volume under continuous registration, against which actual numbers of recorded transfers can be compared (see Section 2 above).

3.16 When used for that purpose, it is more appropriate to calculate the expected value in percentage terms, taking the number who re-registered at a different address (49,368) relative to the 975,046 who re-registered and were not among the December 2005 reinstated15. For the 2006 canvass this gives a value of 5.1 per cent, only slightly different from the 5.4 per cent calculated for the 2005 canvass.

3.17 The conclusions to be drawn are as follows:

15 The rationale for excluding those who did not re-register following the 2006 canvass is that this may have been for a variety of reasons e.g. some may themselves have changed address, or they may have left Northern Ireland, or they may simply have neglected to re-register, or they may have been among the late returns that, as will be seen in Section 4 below, boosted the 1 January 2007 register. Including these persons in the base number for calculating the expected address changes would therefore run the risk of under-stating the true annual rate of address changes.

Page 21 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

• If the Electoral Register is keeping up to date with internal population movements, the expected volume of transfers over the period from 1 December 2006 to 1 December 2007 is at least five per cent of the December 2006 Register.

• In level term, this equates to over 54,000 transfers expected to occur due to address changes in that period.

3.18 The expected number of transfers is a minimum value because some of those re-registering at the 2006 canvass would have already notified the EONI of an address period through the rolling registration process. Unfortunately, the monthly number of transfers is not published by the EONI16.

3.19 It can also be anticipated that the expected volume of address changes will vary from one area to another. At Parliamentary Constituency level, address changes in the 2006 canvass ranged from 4.2 per cent in Newry and Armagh to 6.3 per cent in Belfast South (Figure 3.4. See also Table A3.3).

Figure 3.4 Re-registered at a different address Per cent of all re-registering (excl previously reinstated)

Belfast East Belfast North Belfast South Belfast West East Antrim East Londonderry Fermanagh & South Tyrone Foyle Lagan Valley Canvass Mid Ulster 2005 New ry & Armagh North Antrim Canvass North Dow n 2006 South Antrim South Down Strangford Upper Bann West Tyrone N. Ireland

012345678 Per cent

Source: EONI.

3.20 The geographical variations were considerably wider at Electoral Ward level, ranging from a high of 14.1 per cent (Windsor, Belfast South) to less than two per cent (Rosslea, Fermanagh and South Tyrone). When analysed by type of area, the average address change rates were as follows:

16 Also, some of those who did not re-register may have themselves changed address. If such individuals accounted for more than five per cent of those who did not re-register, the actual percentage of address changes amongst all those on the September 2006 Register (excluding the reinsated) would have been in excess of the five per cent computed from the restricted base discussed in paragraph 3.16 above.

Page 22 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

• Urban areas – 5.6 per cent.

• Mixed urban/rural – 4.9 per cent.

• Rural – 4.5 per cent.

3.21 These are not large differences. More interestingly, there was greater variability in address change rates in urban than in rural areas (Figure 3.5). Reflecting that variability, all but one of the Wards with the highest address change rates, in excess of eight per cent, was located in an urban area (Table 2.1 overleaf). The single rural exception was Moira (Lagan Valley), a growing dormitory community within the greater Belfast Urban Area.

Figure 3.5 Re-registered at a different address by type of area Per cent of all re-registering (excl. reinstated)

10 8

Per cent Per 6

0 Urban123Mixed Rural Area type

Source: EONI.

3.22 Mostly, the address change rates in excess of eight per cent occurred in areas with high population turnover, such as inner-city Wards and university areas with large student populations as well as resort towns. These urban Wards will clearly present the greater difficulties in maintaining the currency of the Register.

3.23 Rural Wards accounted for the majority of areas with the lowest address change rates (Table 2.1). But the picture at the lower end of the scale is more diffuse than at the higher end. As can be seen from Figure 3.5, address change rates in the region of 3.5 per cent or less occurred in each of the three broad area types.

Page 23 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table 2.1 Re-registered at a different address: 2006 canvass

Highest % of base Lowest % of base

Parliamentary Ward Type of Per Parliamentary Ward Type Per Constituency area1 cent Constituency of cent area1

Belfast South Windsor Urban 14.1 Fermanagh & Rosslea Rural 1.9 South Tyrone North Antrim Dunclug Urban 13.9 Newry & Armagh Carrigatuke Rural 2.1

Belfast South Botanic Urban 13.9 Newry & Armagh Creggan Rural 2.2

East Antrim Ballyloran Urban 11.4 Newry & Armagh Derrynoose Rural 2.3

North Down Harbour Urban 9.9 Belfast East Lisnasharragh Urban 2.4

Belfast South Ballynafeigh Urban 9.8 East Antrim Glynn Mixed 2.4

Newry & Armagh Callan Bridge Urban 9.4 East Londonderry Ringsend Rural 2.4

East Portstewart Urban 9.4 Foyle Ballynashallog Urban 2.5 Londonderry Foyle Ebrington Urban 9.3 West Tyrone Owenkillew Rural 2.5

Upper Bann The Cut Urban 9.1 West Tyrone Slievekirk Rural 2.5

East Antrim Antiville Urban 9.0 South Down Lisnacree Rural 2.6

South Down Ballynahinch Urban 8.7 Mid Ulster Swatragh Rural 2.8 East East Royal Urban 8.7 Newry & Armagh Killeen Mixed 2.8 Londonderry Portrush North Antrim Newhill Urban 8.6 Newry & Armagh Fathom Mixed 2.9

North Antrim Bonamargy Urban 8.5 Foyle Shantallow Urban 2.9 and Rathlin East

East Antrim Clipperstown Urban 8.5 South Down Dunmore Mixed 3.0

Foyle Victoria Urban 8.5 Fermanagh & Belcoo and Rural 3.0 South Tyrone Garrison Lagan Valley Moira Rural 8.3 Newry & Armagh Charlemont Rural 3.0

Belfast East The Mount Urban 8.2 South Antrim Toome Rural 3.0

Belfast South Woodstock Urban 8.1 Lagan Valley Ballymac- Rural 3.0 brennan

1 Whether urban, rural or mixed urban/rural. Sources: EONI; NISRA.

Page 24 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

3.24 Three further points can be made regarding address change rates. First, the pattern of change by Electoral Ward in the 2006 canvass was similar to that seen in the 2005 canvass, albeit the patterns were not identical (see Figure A3.2 in Appendix A). This indicates a fairly stable, and hence predictable, geographical pattern of address changes.

3.25 Second, Electoral Wards present a clear spectrum of address change rates (Figure 3.6). In the context of relatively stable geographical patterns, this would suggest that diagnostic monitoring of risks to the currency of the Register will have a geographic focus.

Figure 3.6 Re-registered at a different address Per cent of all re-registering (excl. reinstated)

15 Per cent

0 Less than 3% 3%-4% 4%-5% 5%-6% 6%-8% 8%+

Source: EONI.

3.26 Third, the data supplied by the EONI gives the Electoral Wards into which movers relocated. The data do not say where the movers originated from. As noted in Section 2 above, Census of Population data suggest that about one in four moves are within the same Ward with 46 per cent being across Ward boundaries within the same Parliamentary Constituency and the remaining 30 per cent crossing Parliamentary Constituency boundaries.

3.27 In developing a strategy to maintain the currency of the Register, it may be desirable to prioritise amongst these different types of movers, in order to ensure the most efficient and effective deployment of limited resources. In such a ‘layered’ approach, moves within the same Electoral Ward might have less priority than moves that cross Ward boundaries. For example, in the Representation of the People Act 199017, in Northern Ireland two addresses are defined as being in the same area only if both addresses are in the same Ward.

17 An Act to provide for a person no longer resident at his qualifying address or at any other address in the same area to be eligible for an absent vote for an indefinite period at Parliamentary elections in the United Kingdom and local government elections in Great Britain.

Page 25 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

New from voting age population (VAP)

3.28 In the 2005 and 2006 canvasses, the geographical patterns of new registrations by voting-age persons were broadly similar to those described above in respect of address changes. Thus, at Parliamentary Constituency level, the inflow rates were highest in Belfast and Foyle (see Table A3.1).

3.29 Similarly, the percentage of new voting-age persons varied widely at Electoral Ward level, from 12.3 per cent (Ballysaggart, Fermanagh & South Tyrone) to 1.6 per cent (Altmore, Mid Ulster). The average for urban areas was 5.2 per cent while rural areas averaged 3.6 per cent. Again, it is the variability within each area classification that is more striking (Figure 3.7).

Figure 3.7 New voting-age from canvass 2006 by type of area Per cent of base

6 Per cent Per 4

0 Urban123Mixed Rural Area type

Source: EONI.

3.30 Nonetheless, while the averages by type of area did not differ greatly, there was a pronounced urban-rural divide at the upper and lower end of the spectrum of new voting-age inflows. Thus, urban areas accounted for all of the 20 highest rates, in excess of 7.8 per cent (Table 2.2). By contrast, the 20 lowest rates, below 2.3 per cent, were almost all in rural areas.

3.31 The highest urban rates would appear to reflect a mix of factors. The influence of population turnover is particularly evident in inner-city areas such as Shaftesbury, Botanic, Windsor and The Mount.

Page 26 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table 2.2 New voting-age electors: 2006 canvass

Highest % of base Lowest % of base

Parliamentary Ward Type of Per Parliamentary Ward Type Per Constituency area1 cent Constituency of cent area1

Fermanagh & Ballysaggart Urban 12.3 Mid Ulster Altmore Rural 1.6 South Tyrone North Antrim Castle Urban 10.2 Fermanagh & Donagh Rural 1.6 Demesne South Tyrone Newry & Armagh Callan Bridge Urban 9.9 Fermanagh & Brookeborough Rural 1.7 South Tyrone Upper Bann Drumgor Urban 9.8 West Tyrone Newtownsaville Rural 1.8

Belfast South Shaftesbury Urban 9.6 North Antrim Craigywarren Rural 1.8

South Antrim Springfarm Urban 9.4 North Antrim Dunloy Rural 1.8

Belfast South Windsor Urban 9.3 Fermanagh & Fivemiletown Rural 1.9 South Tyrone Belfast North Water Works Urban 9.3 Fermanagh & Castlecaulfield Mixed 1.9 South Tyrone South Antrim Fountain Hill Urban 8.9 North Antrim Dunminning Rural 1.9

Belfast South Woodstock Urban 8.7 Mid Ulster Lissan Rural 1.9

Upper Bann Drumgask Urban 8.7 Mid Ulster Oaklands Rural 2.0

Belfast South Ballynafeigh Urban 8.3 Mid Ulster Upperlands Rural 2.1

Belfast North New Lodge Urban 8.3 West Tyrone Owenkillew Rural 2.1

Belfast South Botanic Urban 8.2 Mid Ulster Tobermore Rural 2.2

East Ballysally Urban 8.1 Fermanagh & Clogher Rural 2.2 Londonderry South Tyrone Upper Bann Corcrain Urban 8.1 Newry & Armagh Laurelvale Rural 2.2

West Tyrone Lisanelly Urban 7.9 Newry & Armagh Carrigatuke Rural 2.3

Belfast East The Mount Urban 7.9 Fermanagh & Augher Rural 2.3 South Tyrone Belfast South Blackstaff Urban 7.9 West Tyrone Gortin Rural 2.3

South Down Ballymote Urban 7.8 Fermanagh & Rosslea Rural 2.3 South Tyrone

1 Whether urban, rural or mixed urban/rural. Sources: EONI; NISRA.

Page 27 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

3.32 Immigration from Europe would appear to have been another factor. On average, EU citizens accounted for 0.5 per cent of the 1 December 2006 Register18. The EU share was much higher in the top 20 Wards listed in Table 2.2, averaging 2.5 per cent and notably higher in Ballysaggart (7.7 per cent), Castle Demesne (5.4 per cent), Callan Bridge (4.7 per cent), Drumgor (3.2 per cent) and Corcrain (9.3 per cent). In the 20 Wards with the lowest new voting-age rates, EU citizens accounted for just 0.1 per cent of the Register, on average.

3.33 The annual canvass will have provided a clearly-marked vehicle for stimulating new registrations in these areas of high population turnover and immigration. The challenge for continuous registration will be to introduce new routes to registration to avoid loss of comprehensiveness in such areas.

Attainers

3.34 In the 2006 canvass, new registrations from attainers accounted for close to 40 per cent of the population aged 17. This was a substantial improvement on the 2005 out-turn, when attainers comprised 30 per cent of the relevant population (Figure 3.8). In part at least, this would appear to reflect out-reach efforts aimed at, for example, places of education where young people can be encouraged to register.

Figure 3.8 Attainers registering at canvass Per cent of population aged 17

Belfast East Belfast North Belfast South Belfast West East Antrim East Londonderry Fermanagh & S. Tyrone Foyle Lagan Valley 2005 Mid Ulster New ry & Armagh 2006 North Antrim North Dow n South Antrim South Down Strangford Upper Bann West Tyrone N. Ireland 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Per cent

Sources: EONI; Population data derived from NISRA mid-year population estimates and projections.

18 This compares with a 0.2 per cent share in the December 2004 Register (see Update Report No 8).

Page 28 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

IV Net Monthly Changes: December 2006-June 2007

Introduction

This Section assesses the net monthly changes in the Register in the first six months of continuous registration, from December 2006 to June 2007, for Northern Ireland as a whole, by Parliamentary Constituency and at Electoral Ward level. Key Points Summary

From December 2006 to June 2007, the NI Electoral Register increased from 1,075,116 to 1,122,105, a net gain of almost 47,000, or +4.4 per cent. The net gain was accrued as follows: • The late returns effect – the 1 January 2007 Register showed a net gain of 15,000 entries (+1.4 per cent).

• The looming election effect – in the lead-up to the March 2007 Assembly Elections, a net additional 31,000 entries were added to the Register, providing a 2.9 per cent boost.

• The zero growth stage - since April 2007, the Register has been flat, showing no net change in both May and June.

The pattern of change in the Electoral Register in the first six months of continuous registration differs little from the trend in previous years under rolling registration. Extrapolating from these previous trends, the prognosis is that the Register will remain at its present level or on a gently declining gradient through the summer months and into September 2007, if not beyond to December 2007. The changes by Parliamentary Constituency over the period from December 2006 to June 2007 have broadly tracked the overall NI trends. The net change effects have been most pronounced in Belfast West, where the Register has expanded by 12 per cent. Mainly, this has been due to a much larger looming election effect by comparison with other constituencies. At Electoral Ward level, the most deprived areas have recorded the largest gains since December 2006. As a consequence, there has been a narrowing of the gap in registration rates between the most deprived areas and the rest of Northern Ireland. However, this largely reflected the geographical pattern of the looming election effect. Along with the rest of Northern Ireland, the most deprived areas have also entered a zero growth phase since April 2007.

Page 29 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Northern Ireland

4.1 From September to December 2006, the number of entries on the Electoral Register fell by 81,147 (-7 per cent). The reduction was evenly distributed between losses due to:

• The ending of reinstatement (-3.7 per cent).

• A negative net balance (-3.3 per cent) between canvass non- response and new registrations.

4.2 By March 2007, the Register had recouped more than half of these losses (Figure 4.1). As in previous years19, this reflected two factors:

• The late returns effect – the 1 January 2007 Register showed a net gain of 15,000 entries (+1.4 per cent) compared to December 2006 (Figure 4.2).

• The looming election effect – in the lead-up to the March 2007 Assembly Elections, a net additional 26,000 entries were added to the February 2007 Register with a further 5,000 by 1 March 2007. These net gains boosted the Register by +2.9 per cent.

4.3 Thus, by April 2007, the Electoral Register was 4.4 per cent above the December 2006 level. However, since April 2007, the Register has been flat, with zero growth in both May and June 2007 (Figure 4.2).

Figure 4.1 The Electoral Register 1,180

1,160

1,140

1,120 Excl 1,100 reinstated Registered Thousands 1,080

1,060

1,040 Mar-05 Jun-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Mar-03 Jun-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-05 Dec-05 Sep-06 Dec-06 Dec-02 Sep-03 Dec-03 Sep-04 Dec-04

Sources: EONI; Population data derived from NISRA mid-year estimates and projections.

19 See, for example, Update Report Number 1, dated July 2004.

Page 30 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Figure 4.2 Continuous registration: Net monthly change - 2007

'000s 10

(5) January February March April May June

Source: EONI

4.4 As can be seen from Figure 4.1, the pattern of change in the Electoral Register in the first six months of continuous registration therefore shows little change from the trend in previous years under rolling registration. Extrapolating from previous trends, the prognosis is that the Register will remain at its present level or on a gently declining gradient through the summer months and into September 2007, if not beyond to December 2007.

4.5 What does this imply for the registration rate, the top-line indicator of the comprehensiveness of the Register? In previous reports, the registration rate has been measured simply by expressing the number of entries on the Electoral Register as a percentage of the estimated population aged 18 and over. No adjustment was made for attainers on the Register, as these aged into the population aged 18+ over the lifetime of each post-canvass Register. Furthermore, a canvass was held on an annual basis.

4.6 A more refined approach is required in the new era of continuous registration. This is because the decision as to whether a canvass should be held or not will be based on the extent to which the Register is meeting its objectives. Comprehensiveness is one of the registration objectives and the measurement of the registration rate should be as accurate as possible.

4.7 The number of attainers on the December 2006 Register is known, from data supplied by the EONI (see Section 3 above). Unfortunately, the monthly updates published by the EONI do not provide a breakdown into those aged under-18 and those aged 18 and over on the Register.

Page 31 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

4.8 The approach adopted for this report has therefore been to make an adjustment to the monthly figures for the ageing of the December 2006 attainers into the population aged 18+20. The results are shown in Figure 4.3. As can be seen, the adjusted registration rate21 has largely followed the path of the Electoral Register:

• The estimated NI registration rate has risen from 81.3 per cent in December 2006 to 84.8 per cent in June 2007.

• This represents an increase of 3.6 percentage points.

• All of the increase occurred through the late returns and looming election effects.

• The rate has remained flat since April 2007.

Figure 4.3 Registration rate: Dec 2006 to June 2007 Per cent of population aged 18+

85 Adjusted for 84 Dec 06 attainers

Per cent Per 83 Unadjusted

81 Dec 2006 February Apr il June January March May

Sources: EONI; Population aged 18+ derived from N ISRA mid-year estimates and projections.

20 The adjustment assumes that the ageing of the December 2006 attainers into the 18+ population will be evely spread over the 12 months from 1 December 2006 to 1 December 2007.

21 The population figure used in calculating the estimated registration rate is derived from NISRA’s 2005-based mid-year population estimates rolled forward on the basis of the most recent available population projections. The input data can be accessed at http://www.nisra.gov.uk/demography/default.asp. The available population data refer to the population resident in Northern Ireland and do not distinguish between those who are entitled to be on the Register and those who are not.

Page 32 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Parliamentary Constituencies

4.9 The patterns of change by Parliamentary Constituency over the period from December 2006 to June 2007 have broadly tracked the overall NI trends (Figures 4.4 to 4.6). Most strikingly, each Parliamentary Constituency has experienced a spurt of growth in the Register due to the late returns and looming election effects followed by zero growth in the months of May and June. At least to date, the continuous registration trends are not greatly different from what was observed under rolling registration.

4.10 The trends have been most pronounced in Belfast West. There, the Register fell by 15.5 per cent from September to December 2006. However, much of the losses have been clawed back due to the combined late returns and looming election effects.

Figure 4.4 The Electoral Register: Belfast Constituencies 55 54

51 East North 50 South 49 West Thousands 48

45 Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07

Source: EONI

Figure 4.5 The Electoral Register: Antrim & North Down 80

70 East Antrim North Antrim 65 North Down South Antrim Thousands 60

50 Mar-03 Jun-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Dec-02 Sep-03 Dec-03 Sep-04 Dec-04 Sep-05 Dec-05 Sep-06 Dec-06

Source: EONI

Page 33 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Figure 4.6 The Electoral Register: Mid-NI and Rest of East 80

Lagan Valley 70 Mid Ulster South Down Strangford 65

Thousands Upper Bann

55 Mar-03 Jun-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Dec-02 Sep-03 Dec-03 Sep-04 Dec-04 Sep-05 Dec-05 Sep-06 Dec-06

Source: EONI

Figure 4.7 The Electoral Register: Border and West 75

E. Londonderry 65 Ferm & S. Tyrone Foyle Newry & Armagh 60

Thousands W. Tyrone

50 Mar-03 Jun-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Dec-02 Sep-03 Dec-03 Sep-04 Dec-04 Sep-05 Dec-05 Sep-06 Dec-06

Source: EONI

4.11 Over the period from 1 December 2006 to 1 June 2007, the Register in Belfast West has expanded by 12 per cent (Figure 4.8. See also Table A4.1). Mainly, this has been due to a much larger looming election effect by comparison with other constituencies. In Belfast West, the February 2007 Register showed a 7.5 per cent increase, compared to 2.4 per cent for Northern Ireland as a whole.

4.12 Outside Belfast West, changes by Parliamentary Constituency have occupied a relatively narrow range. From December 2006 to March 2007, the spread was from +2.7 per cent in Strangford to +5.7 per cent in West Tyrone.

Page 34 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Figure 4.8 Monthly net change in the Register January 2007 to June 2007

Belfast East Belfast North Belfast South Belfast West East Antrim East Londonderry January Fermanagh & S. Tyrone Foyle Fe br ua r y Lagan Valley March Mid Ulster New ry & Armagh April North Antrim North Dow n May South Antrim June South Down Strangford Upper Bann West Tyrone N. Ireland

-10123456789101112 Per cent of December 2006 Register

Source: EONI.

4.13 As was the case for Northern Ireland as a whole, the accumulated monthly net change effects have been reflected in the registration rates by Parliamentary Constituency. The estimated rate for Belfast West has expanded by 8.5 percentage points, followed by West Tyrone with +5 percentage points (Figure 4.9. See also table A4.2). The ageing of attainers into the population aged 18+ has added 0.2-0.5 percentage points to the change in the registration rate for those aged 18+.

Figure 4.9 Registration rate change: Dec 2006 - June 2007 Per cent of population aged 18+

Belfast East Belfast North Belfast South Belfast West East Antrim East Londonderry Fermanagh & S. Tyrone Foyle Lagan Valley Dec 06 Mid Ulster New ry & Armagh attainers North Antrim effect North Dow n Net change South Antrim South Down effect Strangford Upper Bann West Tyrone N. Ireland

0123456789 Percentage points

Sources: EONI; Population aged 18+ derived from N ISRA mid-year population estimates and projec tions.

4.14 By June 2007, the registration rates estimated at Parliamentary Constituency level ranged from 64 per cent in Belfast South to 93 per cent in Newry and Armagh (Figure 4.10 overleaf). Whereas in December 2006 the registration rate in Belfast West had been seven percentage points below the NI average, the large monthly net changes leading up to the March Assembly Elections meant that the gap had closed to just two percentage points by June 2007.

Page 35 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Figure 4.10 Registration rates: June 2007 Per cent of population aged 18+

Belfast East Belfast North Belfast South Belfast West East Antrim East Londonderry Fermanagh & S. Tyrone Foyle Dec 2006 Lagan Valley Mid Ulster Dec 06 New ry & Armagh attainers North Antrim North Dow n effect South Antrim Net change South Down Strangford effect Upper Bann West Tyrone N. Ireland

0 102030405060708090100 Per cent

Sources: EONI; Population aged 18+ derived from N ISRA mid-year population estimates and projec tions.

Wards

4.15 The net monthly changes by Electoral Ward are shown in Table B4.1 in Appendix B, along with selected profile indicators, including type of area, the Catholic population share and deciles of deprivation. When analysed by deprivation levels, the distribution of net monthly changes since December 2006 has been the reverse of the pattern seen in the 2006 canvass. Whereas the most deprived areas showed large reductions following the canvass (see Figure 3.3), these same areas have recorded the largest gains since December 2006 (Figure 4.11).

Figure 4.11 Net changes by deciles of deprivation Per cent of December 2006 Register

8 7 6 June 5 May 4 April 3 March Per cent Per 2 Fe b Jan 1 0 -1 1 - Most depriv ed 3 5 7 9 2 4 6 8 10 - Least deprived All areas Deciles of deprivation

Source: EONI

4.16 Mainly, this reflects a Belfast West effect. Electoral Wards from that constituency alone provided the nine largest percentage changes in the Electoral Register from December 2006 to June 2007, with a tenth Ward occupying 12th position in the ranking (Table 4.1).

Page 36 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table 4.1 The 20 Wards with the largest net change from continuous registration: December 2006 to June 2007

Parliamentary DEA Ward Change Deprivation Type of Catholic Constituency area share

% Decile1 %

Belfast West Dunmurry Collin Glen 19.5 1 Mixed 96 Cross urban/rural Belfast West Lower Falls Upper 19.1 1 Urban 97 Springfield Belfast West Dunmurry Twinbrook 18.2 1 Urban 97 Cross Belfast West Dunmurry Kilwee 15.7 2 Urban 98 Cross Belfast West Dunmurry Poleglass 15.2 3 Urban 98 Cross Belfast West Lower Falls Falls 15.1 1 Urban 97

Belfast West Lower Falls Whiterock 14.1 1 Urban 99

Belfast West Upper Falls Glencolin 14.1 1 Mixed 98 urban/rural

Belfast West Lower Falls Clonard 13.2 1 Urban 96

Lagan Valley Dunmurry Derryaghy 12.8 5 Urban 61 Cross West Tyrone Mourne East 12.2 1 Urban 97

Belfast West Lower Falls Beechmount 12.0 1 Urban 92

Belfast North Oldpark Ardoyne 11.5 1 Urban 96

Belfast South Laganbank Botanic 11.2 5 Urban 67

West Tyrone Mid Tyrone Killyclogher 11.1 6 Urban 92

North Antrim Bann Valley Dunloy 11.0 6 Rural 85

North Antrim Bushvale Ballyhoe and 11.0 4 Rural 93 Corkey Mid Ulster Drum Manor Lissan 10.8 7 Rural 37

Foyle Cityside Creggan Central 10.7 1 Urban 99

Foyle Northland Crevagh 10.6 1 Mixed 91 urban/rural

1 From 1=10% most deprived to 10=10% least deprived. Sources: EONI; NISRA.

Page 37 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table 4.2 The 20 Wards with the lowest net change due from continuous registration: December 2006 to June 2007

Parliamentary DEA Ward Change Deprivation Type of Catholic Constituency area share

% Decile1 %

North Antrim Braid Craigywarren -0.1 9 Rural 5

South Antrim Antrim South Ballycraigy 0.2 3 Urban 5 East East Antrim Coast Road Glenarm 0.7 5 Rural 43

North Antrim Ballycastle Kinbane 0.7 3 Rural 36

North Antrim Ballymena Castle Demesne 0.9 3 Urban 36 South North Down Bangor West Bryansburn 0.9 10 Urban 28

Upper Bann Central Edenderry 1.0 7 Urban 3 (Craigavon) North Down Ballyholme & Groomsport 1.1 10 Mixed 7 Groomsport urban/rural Upper Bann Lurgan Knocknashane 1.2 9 Urban 3

North Antrim Ballymena Harryville 1.2 4 Urban 4 South

East Coleraine The Cuts 1.2 9 Urban 20 Londonderry Central

Strangford Castlereagh Moneyreagh 1.3 10 Mixed 11 South urban/rural North Antrim Ballymoney Glebe 1.3 9 Urban 15 Town South Down Knockiveagh Katesbridge 1.3 7 Rural 29

North Down Bangor West Princetown 1.3 10 Urban 16

East Antrim Coast Road Carnlough 1.3 3 Rural 78

Foyle Waterside Lisnagelvin 1.4 5 Urban 19

Fermanagh & Enniskillen Tempo 1.4 6 Rural 52 South Tyrone North Antrim Ballymoney Fairhill 1.4 7 Urban 18 Town Fermanagh & Clogher Clogher 1.4 4 Rural 60 South Tyrone Valley

1 From 1=10% most deprived to 10=10% least deprived. Sources: EONI; NISRA.

Page 38 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

4.17 Of the 10 Belfast Wards in the top 20 largest monthly changes, eight are in the 10 per cent most deprived areas in Northern Ireland22. The other two Belfast Wards in the top 20 are in the second and third deciles of deprivation (Kilwee and Poleglass, respectively).

4.18 A second striking feature of the top 20 Wards is that they are predominantly Catholic, with only Lissan in Mid Ulster having a Catholic minority. This suggests that, as in previous years, the looming election effect was most pronounced in largely nationalist areas and testifies to the likely effort made by political parties to encourage voter registration in anticipation of the Assembly Elections.

4.19 By contrast, the 20 Wards with the lowest percentage changes in the Register through to June 2007 were much more varied, encompassing both rural and urban areas as well as a spread of deprivation levels and a mix of Catholic majority and minority areas (Table 4.2).

4.20 One consequence of the geographical pattern in net monthly changes since December 2006 is that there has been a narrowing of the gap in registration rates between the most derpived areas and the rest of Northern Ireland.

4.21 In December 2006, the 10 per cent most deprived areas had a 74 percent registration rate, on average. This was seven percentage points below the NI average (Figure 4.12). By June 2007, the registration rate in the most deprived areas had climbed to 80 per cent, thereby closing the gap to five percentage points.

Figure 4.12 Registration rates by deciles of deprivation Per cent of population aged 18+

90 88 Dec 2006 86 84 June 2007 82 NI average 80 Dec 06 Per cent Per 78 NI average 76 June 07 74 72 1 - Most deprived 3 5 7 9 2 4 6 8 10 - Least deprived Deciles of deprivation

Sources: EONI; Population aged 18+ derived from NISRA mid-year population estimates and projections.

22 Decile 1 in Figure 4.11. Each decile refers to 10 per cent of Northern Ireland’s Electoral Wards.

Page 39 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

4.22 However, as the political push factor that was so evident in early-2007 has now given way to zero growth in registration levels, this does pose the question of how new registrations in the more deprived areas might be stimulated to further close the registration rate gap.

Page 40 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

V Concluding Remarks

Introduction

5.1 This report has considered three main topics, as follows:

• Diagnostic indicators for ongoing monitoring of risks associated with maintaining and enhancing the comprehensiveness and currency of the Register.

• Expected values for such diagnostic indicators, against which actual values can be compared.

• The trend in net monthly changes in the first six months of continuous registration.

5.2 This final Section presents concluding remarks in relation to each of the foregoing topics.

Indicators

5.3 Continuous registration provides an opportunity to remove the downward trend in the Electoral Register that had emerged due to non-response to the annual canvass. However, the ending of the annual canvass presents new challenges, including especially:

• Maintaining currency. Over time, registered electors will change address, for various reasons, within Northern Ireland. The annual canvass provided an opportunity for electors to regularly update the EONI with changes to their address details.

• Enhancing comprehensiveness and growing the register. The annual canvass was a visible mechanism for stimulating new voter registration, including attainers.

5.4 These challenges will require new arrangements for ensuring that electors keep the Register up to date as well as strategies and approaches for growing the Register. In addition, the accuracy and comprehensiveness of the Register needs to be regularly reviewed as a basis for assessing the requirement for a canvass in those years where this is not required by the legislation.

5.5 For both of these reasons, it will be necessary to develop an ‘intelligence- led’ approach to monitoring and reviewing the utility and effectiveness of the Register in meeting its objectives. This report has set out one element in such an approach, which would act to complement other methodologies such as periodic sampling.

Page 41 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

5.6 The basic premise is that the components of change in the Register will generate specific types of transactions, including:

• Transfers as electors notify the EONI of address changes.

• Additions due to new voter registrations.

• Deletions due to deaths and other removals from the Register e.g. where an elector moves abroad.

5.7 These transactions can be related to the objectives of enhancing comprehensiveness and the accuracy-related objective of keeping the Register up to date. Thus, as set out in Box 5.A, it is feasible and possible to develop indicators for assessing the risk that one or more objectives are not being met. The implementation of such a framework would provide a useful tool going forward. This would, however, require the preparation of data from the Register to match the framework set out in this report.

Box 5.A Framework of ‘diagnostic’ indicators for continuous registration

Objective to Growing the Currency and Currency – address details be monitored: Register accurate count of entries

Component New to • Deaths Moved to new Moved from of change: Register • Other exits address old address

Transaction Addition Deletion Addition Deletion / type: Transfer

Expected Values

5.8 The interpretation and use of transactions-based indicators from the Register also requires ‘expected values’ against which the actual numbers can be compared. Two points can be noted in that regard.

5.9 First, the accumulation of evidence from the 2005 and 2006 canvasses provides a basis for identifying the expected minimum number of transfers of electors already registered from one address to another. This expected value can be used for assessing the risk that the Register is not keeping up to date with electors’ current address details.

Page 42 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

5.10 Second, in implementing such an approach, it may be useful to consider prioritising different types of moves in terms of their implications for the utility and effectiveness of the Register. For example, changes of address or transfers within the same Electoral Ward may be considered to have less impact on the effectiveness of the Register than movements across Ward and/or Parliamentary Constituency boundaries.

Net Change: The Trend to Date

5.11 In examining the net monthly changes that have occurred to date, perhaps the most striking finding is that the pattern has been very similar to what was observed under the previous rolling registration process.

5.12 In particular, positive net changes have been driven by the late returns and looming election effects. In the absence of these effects as a stimulus to voter registration, the Register has shown zero growth.

5.13 While it is early days in the new process of continuous registration, the similarity with the rolling registration pattern would suggest that the coming summer and autumn months will see little further change in the total number of entries on the Electoral Register.

5.14 This is important in the context of the quantified registration target set out in the EONI’s Business Plan 2007-08, that is:

By 1 December 2007 to increase the comprehensiveness of the electoral registers by 5% compared with 1 December 2006.

5.15 As the registration rate is estimated to have grown by less than four percentage points through 1 June 2007, the prospect of a flat Register means that this target looks to be challenging at this point in time.

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Page 44 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

References

Australian National Audit Office, 2002. Integrity of the Electoral Roll: Australian Electoral Commission. The Auditor General, Audit Report No. 42 2001-02.

Electoral Office Northern Ireland. Corporate Plan 2007-2010 and Business Plan 2007-2008. Belfast: EONI.

Northern Ireland Office, 2005. Electoral Registration in Northern Ireland: Proposals on the Future of Electoral Registration in Northern Ireland. Consultation Paper issued August 2005.

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Page 46 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Appendix A Additional Material

Page 47 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Page 48 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table A1.1 Desk Research Reports

July 2003 Desk Research Final Report

• The current extent of non-registration in Northern Ireland

• The patterns of non-registration across Northern Ireland

• Any correlation between decreased registration rates and indicators of deprivation.

June 2004 UR No 1 Analysis of the Electoral Register: September 2003 – May 2004

• Analysis of the decline in the number on the Electoral Register, within the framework of the registration cycle, comprised of the annual canvass followed by the rolling registration process for updating the Register in the period between each annual canvass.

Feb 2005 UR No 2 Rolling Registration – Implementation and Impact

• The components of change in the Electoral Register during the rolling registration period.

• The effect of the rolling registration process on the Electoral Register.

June 2005 UR No 3 Trends in the Electoral Register: The Reinstatement Effect

• Update analysis of the trend in the Electoral Register.

• Assess the April 2005 reinstatement and its effect on the Register, at an overall Northern Ireland level and the geographical patterns by Parliamentary Constituency and Electoral Ward.

Dec 2005 UR No 4 An Assessment of the Impact of the Ending of

Page 49 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table A1.1 Desk Research Reports

the Annual Canvass

• Assist the Electoral Commission in framing its response to the Government’s proposals, by examining the implications of the Government’s proposals for change.

• Challenges in terms of comprehensiveness and accuracy that will be posed by moving away from the annual canvass.

• What is required in order to manage the risks identified?

March UR No 5 Impact of Individual Voter Registration on 2006 Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

• Analysis of geographical patterns in turnout at the NI local elections of May 2005 and how these relate to individual registration rates.

• First analysis of its kind at Electoral Ward level.

May 2006 UR No 6 Components of change in the 2005 Canvass

• Analysis of the 2005 canvass, with particular reference to patterns of non-response.

• December 2005 reinstated being tracked and this facilitated calculation on non-response rates and geographical patterns.

Aug 2006 UR No 7 Canvass Non-Response and Non-Registration: Geographical Patterns

• Identifying the characteristics of Electoral Wards that are most vulnerable to higher rates of canvass non-response.

• Factors associated with variations in non- registration by Electoral Ward.

Jan 2007 UR No 8 Continuous Registration: The Baseline Position

Page 50 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table A1.1 Desk Research Reports

• The net change in the number of entries on the Electoral Register following the 2006 canvass.

• The latest position and trend in the number of electors as a percentage of the voting-age population, that is, persons aged 18 and over.

• The baseline position for Northern Ireland as a whole and the geographical patterns at Parliamentary Constituency and Electoral Ward level, including areas of deprivation.

Page 51 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table A1.2 Individual Registration: Chronology

Period Event Electoral Register

Sept 02-Nov 02 First canvass under individual registration

Dec 02 First Electoral Register based on 1,072.346 individual registration

Sept 03-Nov 03 Second canvass – suspended for NI 1,097,558 Assembly Elections (Sept 03)

Nov 03 NI Assembly Elections

Feb 04 Second canvass Electoral Register 1,069,160

May 04 European Parliament Elections 1,076,937

Sept 04-Nov 04 Third canvass 1,075,439 (Sept 04)

Nov 04 Minister announces ending of annual canvass and temporary introduction of reinstatement

Dec 04 Third canvass Electoral Register 1,047,601

April 05 70,000 Electors reinstated 1,148,487

May 05 Westminster and local Council elections 1,148,010

Aug 05 Government consultation paper setting out proposals for change

Dec 05 Fourth canvass Electoral Register 1,157,053

Sept 05-Nov 05 Fifth and final canvass 1,156,263 (Sept 06)

Dec 06 Fifth canvass Electoral Register 1,075,116

March 07 NI Assembly Elections 1,121,098

June 07 Latest position 1,122,105

Page 52 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Figure A2.1 Population movements by age band, 2001 Persons at a different address one year previously.

15 Out to GB In from Rest of World In from GB

Per cent 10 Mover within NI

0 17 18-24 25-29 30-44 45-59 60+ All aged 17+

Source: Census of Population, 2001. Note: It is not possible from the Census to determine flows from NI to destinations outside the UK (rest of world).

Page 53 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table A2.1 Internal population movements 2001-02: The 20 highest rates of population movement, based on address changes compared to where lived one year previously Parliamentary DEA Ward Per cent moving to: Constituency Same Ward Same District Rest of NI All Council % % % % Belfast South Laganbank Botanic 11.0 11.5 16.7 39.2 Belfast South Balmoral Windsor 7.6 14.9 13.0 35.6 Belfast South Laganbank Stranmillis 2.4 7.3 18.4 28.1 Foyle Northland Strand 4.5 10.7 6.7 21.9 East Londonderry The Skerries Strand 4.1 11.2 6.4 21.7 East Antrim University Rostulla 2.5 3.0 14.1 19.5 East Londonderry The Skerries Portstewart 3.7 8.9 5.8 18.4 Belfast South Laganbank Ballynafeigh 4.0 7.3 6.6 17.9 East Antrim Carrick Castle Killycrot 2.5 9.2 5.0 16.7 East Londonderry The Skerries Royal Portrush 4.8 6.9 4.3 16.0 North Down Abbey Harbour 2.7 8.9 4.1 15.7 East Londonderry Coleraine East University 1.6 4.4 9.6 15.6 Strangford Newtownards Scrabo 3.0 6.3 5.8 15.1 Belfast East Pottinger The Mount 4.2 6.9 3.5 14.6 Belfast West Court Shankill 7.6 6.2 0.7 14.4 North Antrim Ballycastle Glentaisie 2.5 6.2 5.6 14.3 Lagan Valley Lisburn Town South Old Warren 5.4 7.0 1.8 14.1 North Antrim Ballycastle Knocklayd 2.6 5.1 6.3 14.0 South Down Downpatrick Ballymote 4.1 7.7 2.1 13.8 East Londonderry Coleraine East Ballysally 5.6 5.5 2.3 13.4 Source: NISRA, Census of Population, 2001.

Page 54 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table A2.2 Internal population movements 2001-02: The 20 lowest rates of population movement, based on address changes compared to where lived one year previously Parliamentary DEA Ward Per cent moving to: Constituency Same Ward Same District Rest of NI All Council % % % % Upper Bann Knockiveagh Lawrencetown 1.5 1.0 1.1 3.5 Mid Ulster Drum Manor Dunnamore 1.4 1.2 0.8 3.5 South Down Downpatrick Strangford 0.9 1.7 0.8 3.4 South Down The Mournes Lisnacree 0.4 2.3 0.7 3.4 Fermanagh & South Tyrone Erne West Derrygonnelly 0.9 1.5 1.0 3.4 Foyle Northland Pennyburn 0.4 2.4 0.5 3.4 Newry & Armagh Slieve Gullion Silver Bridge 0.7 2.1 0.5 3.4 Mid Ulster Ballinderry Ardboe 1.4 1.0 0.9 3.3 West Tyrone Glenelly Dunnamanagh 1.2 0.7 1.5 3.3 Belfast West Upper Falls Ladybrook 0.6 1.6 1.0 3.3 Fermanagh & South Tyrone Erne East Newtownbutler 1.9 1.2 0.2 3.3 Fermanagh & South Tyrone Erne West Belcoo and Garrison 1.9 0.7 0.6 3.2 Belfast East Castlereagh Central Lisnasharragh 0.7 0.9 1.6 3.1 Fermanagh & South Tyrone Erne North Lisnarrick 0.5 1.9 0.8 3.1 West Tyrone Mid Tyrone Termon 0.8 1.2 1.1 3.1 Fermanagh & South Tyrone Erne North Belleek and Boa 1.7 0.8 0.6 3.1 Fermanagh & South Tyrone Erne West Boho Cleenish and Letterbreen 0.8 1.2 1.0 3.0 North Antrim The Glens Glenaan 1.3 0.6 1.1 3.0 Foyle Shantallow Shantallow East 0.4 2.3 0.1 2.8 Mid Ulster Drum Manor Lissan 0.7 1.2 0.6 2.5 Source: NISRA, Census of Population, 2001.

Page 55 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table A3.1 The 2006 canvass: Components of change – Per cent of September 2006 base

Dec 05 reinstated Registered at 05 canvass or via rolling New from canvass registration Removed Re-registered Re-registered at canvass Did not re- Voting age Attainer Same address Diff. address register % % % % % % % Belfast East 4.0 3.3 79.0 4.2 9.6 4.8 0.7 Belfast North 5.0 3.8 75.4 4.0 11.8 6.1 0.7 Belfast South 4.8 3.2 75.6 5.1 11.3 6.2 0.7 Belfast West 6.4 4.6 71.4 3.4 14.1 5.2 0.7 East Antrim 3.1 2.9 81.2 4.6 8.2 4.8 0.8 East Londonderry 3.5 2.8 80.7 4.5 8.4 4.3 0.9 Fermanagh & South Tyrone 2.9 2.3 83.4 4.1 7.3 3.7 1.1 Foyle 6.1 5.2 75.1 4.0 9.7 5.6 0.9 Lagan Valley 3.1 3.0 81.4 4.4 8.1 4.2 1.0 Mid Ulster 2.9 2.7 82.7 4.0 7.8 3.4 1.2 Newry & Armagh 3.2 3.0 82.2 3.6 8.0 4.4 1.1 North Antrim 3.0 2.4 82.0 4.6 8.0 3.8 0.9 North Down 3.2 2.7 80.6 4.6 8.9 4.8 0.7 South Antrim 3.0 3.0 81.0 4.4 8.6 5.0 0.8 South Down 3.4 3.4 81.2 4.0 8.1 4.3 1.0 Strangford 2.9 2.7 81.6 4.5 8.3 4.2 0.9 Upper Bann 3.1 3.2 80.9 5.1 7.8 4.9 1.0 West Tyrone 3.7 3.0 81.3 3.7 8.3 3.9 1.0 N. Ireland 3.7 3.2 80.0 4.3 8.9 4.6 0.9 Source: EONI.

Page 56 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table A3.2 The 2006 canvass: Additions and reductions (per cent of September 2006 base)

Additions Reductions Net change

% % %

Belfast East 5.5 13.5 -8.1

Belfast North 6.7 16.7 -10.0

Belfast South 6.9 16.1 -9.2

Belfast West 5.9 20.5 -14.7

East Antrim 5.6 11.3 -5.6

East Londonderry 5.2 11.9 -6.7

Fermanagh & South Tyrone 4.8 10.1 -5.3

Foyle 6.5 15.8 -9.3

Lagan Valley 5.2 11.2 -6.0

Mid Ulster 4.6 10.7 -6.1

Newry & Armagh 5.5 11.2 -5.7

North Antrim 4.7 11.0 -6.2

North Down 5.5 12.1 -6.6

South Antrim 5.8 11.6 -5.8

South Down 5.4 11.5 -6.1

Strangford 5.0 11.2 -6.1

Upper Bann 5.9 10.9 -5.0

West Tyrone 4.9 12.0 -7.1

N. Ireland 5.5 12.5 -7.0

Source: EONI

Page 57 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Figure A3.1 Did not re-register Per cent of base, excluding reinstated

15 2006 10

0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2005

Source: EONI.

Page 58 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table A3.3 Re-registered at a different address: Per cent of all re-registering (excluding previously reinstated)

Canvass 2005 Canvass 2006

% %

Belfast East 6.0 5.0

Belfast North 6.3 5.1

Belfast South 7.3 6.3

Belfast West 5.4 4.6

East Antrim 5.8 5.4

East Londonderry 6.0 5.3

Fermanagh & South Tyrone 5.0 4.7

Foyle 5.1 5.0

Lagan Valley 5.8 5.1

Mid Ulster 4.1 4.6

Newry & Armagh 4.4 4.2

North Antrim 5.1 5.4

North Down 5.9 5.4

South Antrim 5.6 5.2

South Down 5.1 4.7

Strangford 5.5 5.2

Upper Bann 6.2 5.9

West Tyrone 4.5 4.3

N. Ireland 5.4 5.1

Source: EONI

Page 59 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Figure A3.2 Re-registered at a different address: Electoral Wards Per cent of all re-registering (excl. reinstated)

14 12

10 8 2006 6

4 2 0 024681012141618 2005

Source: EONI.

Figure A3.3 New voting-age from canvass compared with per cent re-registering at different address

8 6

Re-registered at different address (%) address different at Re-registered 02468101214 New voting-age from canvass (%)

Source: EONI.

Page 60 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table A4.1 Continuous Registration: Net monthly changes, 2007 (per cent change on previous month)

January February March April June

% % % % %

Belfast East 1.2 1.8 0.4 0.1 -0.1

Belfast North 1.2 3.5 0.5 0.1 0.0

Belfast South 1.6 2.6 0.7 0.2 0.0

Belfast West 3.4 7.5 0.4 0.1 -0.0

East Antrim 1.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 -0.0

East Londonderry 1.0 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0

Fermanagh & South Tyrone 1.4 2.3 0.4 0.1 -0.0

Foyle 1.5 3.2 0.7 0.2 0.0

Lagan Valley 1.1 2.1 0.5 0.1 -0.0

Mid Ulster 1.7 2.4 0.5 0.1 -0.0

Newry & Armagh 1.2 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0

North Antrim 1.7 1.7 0.3 0.1 -0.0

North Down 1.0 1.7 0.2 0.1 -0.0

South Antrim 1.3 1.9 0.5 0.1 -0.0

South Down 1.2 2.2 0.6 0.1 -0.0

Strangford 0.9 1.6 0.2 0.1 -0.1

Upper Bann 0.9 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0

West Tyrone 1.9 3.3 0.4 0.2 0.0

N. Ireland 1.4 2.4 0.5 0.1 -0.0

Source: EONI

Page 61 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table A4.2 Registration rates – Per cent of population aged 18+ (adjusted for attainers)

Adjusted Change

Dec 06 June 07 Total Attainer Net effect change effect

% % pps pps pps

Belfast East 78.1 80.7 2.6 0.3 2.3

Belfast North 75.5 79.4 3.9 0.3 3.6

Belfast South 61.4 64.4 3.1 0.2 2.8

Belfast West 74.6 83.3 8.7 0.3 8.4

East Antrim 83.5 85.9 2.4 0.4 2.0

East Londonderry 79.2 81.8 2.6 0.4 2.2

Fermanagh & South Tyrone 87.8 91.6 3.8 0.5 3.3

Foyle 79.4 83.9 4.5 0.4 4.1

Lagan Valley 83.6 86.9 3.2 0.5 2.8

Mid Ulster 88.2 92.5 4.3 0.6 3.8

Newry & Armagh 89.1 93.2 4.1 0.5 3.6

North Antrim 86.5 89.8 3.3 0.4 2.9

North Down 79.6 81.9 2.3 0.3 1.9

South Antrim 81.0 84.0 3.1 0.3 2.7

South Down 84.7 88.3 3.7 0.5 3.2

Strangford 83.5 85.7 2.2 0.4 1.8

Upper Bann 84.6 87.2 2.6 0.4 2.2

West Tyrone 83.5 88.5 5.0 0.4 4.6

N. Ireland 81.5 85.0 3.6 0.4 3.2

Source: EONI

Page 62 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Appendix B Additional Material: Electoral Wards

Page 63 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Page 64 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B3.1 The 2006 canvass: Components of change – Per cent of September 2006 base

Dec 05 reinstated Registered at 05 canvass or via rolling New from canvass registration Removed Re-registered Re-registered at canvass Did not re- Voting age Attainer Same address Diff. address register % % % % % % % N. Ireland 3.7 3.2 80.0 4.3 8.9 4.6 0.9 Belfast East 4.0 3.3 79.0 4.2 9.6 4.8 0.7 2506 Tullycarnet 4.8 4.8 75.4 4.1 10.9 0.4 0.7 2507 Gilnahirk 2.1 2.3 85.2 3.5 7.0 0.2 0.8 2508 Upper Braniel 3.5 3.8 80.6 4.1 8.0 0.2 0.5 2511 Lower Braniel 3.2 2.2 83.0 2.8 8.8 0.2 0.4 2512 Hillfoot 2.0 2.0 86.0 2.9 7.0 0.2 1.3 2513 Lisnasharragh 4.2 2.6 82.7 2.0 8.4 0.2 0.5 2514 Downshire 4.3 2.8 80.3 2.6 9.9 0.2 0.5 2515 Cregagh 4.4 3.0 79.2 3.3 10.1 0.3 0.4 2516 Wynchurch 4.0 3.4 82.0 3.7 6.8 0.2 0.2 2601 Sydenham 4.7 4.0 76.3 4.3 10.7 0.2 0.6 2602 Island 6.3 4.1 69.9 5.3 14.3 0.3 0.5 2603 Ballymacarrett 7.4 5.9 69.5 3.5 13.7 0.2 0.7 2604 Bloomfield 4.7 3.5 73.5 5.7 12.5 0.2 0.7 2605 Ballyhackamore 3.6 3.2 79.1 5.1 9.1 0.1 1.1 2606 Belmont 2.9 3.0 82.0 4.0 8.2 0.1 0.5 2607 Stormont 2.6 2.5 82.8 4.1 7.9 0.1 1.0 2608 Cherryvalley 2.3 2.5 83.1 3.8 8.2 0.1 0.5 2609 Knock 3.1 2.9 82.7 3.8 7.5 0.1 0.8 2610 Orangefield 3.5 2.8 81.7 4.8 7.2 0.1 1.0

Page 65 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B3.1 The 2006 canvass: Components of change – Per cent of September 2006 base

Dec 05 reinstated Registered at 05 canvass or via rolling New from canvass registration Removed Re-registered Re-registered at canvass Did not re- Voting age Attainer Same address Diff. address register % % % % % % % 2611 The Mount 6.9 5.0 67.1 6.0 15.1 0.3 0.7 Belfast North 5.0 3.8 75.4 4.0 11.8 6.1 0.7 2121 Coole 4.6 4.0 77.1 3.9 10.4 0.4 0.5 2122 Dunanney 4.3 3.5 72.9 6.2 13.1 0.5 0.6 2123 Abbey 3.7 2.7 79.5 3.8 10.3 0.2 0.2 2124 Whitehouse 3.6 1.8 81.7 3.9 9.1 0.2 0.3 2125 Valley 4.5 3.2 77.0 3.2 12.0 0.2 0.6 2635 Woodvale 5.7 4.0 73.0 5.5 11.8 0.2 0.5 2636 Crumlin 6.0 3.8 75.1 2.9 12.2 0.3 0.4 2640 New Lodge 6.8 6.9 69.4 3.5 13.5 0.3 0.6 2641 Duncairn 6.9 2.8 72.3 5.8 12.1 0.3 0.3 2642 Water Works 7.3 4.7 67.2 4.6 16.3 0.3 0.8 2643 Ardoyne 5.9 5.3 68.5 4.3 16.0 0.2 0.8 2644 Legoniel 3.8 3.5 78.8 3.8 10.2 0.2 0.7 2645 Ballysillan 5.0 3.7 77.8 3.9 9.6 0.1 0.7 2646 Cliftonville 4.4 3.9 75.9 3.8 12.0 0.2 0.7 2647 Chichester Park 5.9 3.8 73.1 4.7 12.5 0.2 0.8 2648 Fortwilliam 3.4 2.7 80.0 4.1 9.7 0.2 0.5 2649 Cavehill 2.6 2.8 82.9 3.0 8.7 0.1 0.8 2650 Castleview 4.6 3.0 77.8 3.6 11.0 0.2 0.7 2651 Bellevue 4.2 4.1 77.4 3.1 11.0 0.2 0.9 Belfast South 4.8 3.2 75.6 5.1 11.3 6.2 0.7

Page 66 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B3.1 The 2006 canvass: Components of change – Per cent of September 2006 base

Dec 05 reinstated Registered at 05 canvass or via rolling New from canvass registration Removed Re-registered Re-registered at canvass Did not re- Voting age Attainer Same address Diff. address register % % % % % % % 2510 Galwally 2.4 1.6 85.2 3.4 7.4 0.2 0.9 2517 Newtownbreda 3.8 2.6 82.4 4.5 6.7 0.3 1.3 2518 Cairnshill 3.4 2.5 82.0 4.6 7.4 0.2 0.8 2519 Knockbracken 2.4 2.5 86.2 3.5 5.4 0.2 1.1 2522 Beechill 3.2 2.5 80.8 4.4 9.2 0.2 1.1 2523 Minnowburn 5.7 3.0 77.8 3.5 10.1 0.3 0.3 2612 Woodstock 6.3 5.2 67.2 5.9 15.5 0.3 0.3 2613 Ravenhill 3.5 3.3 76.1 5.8 11.2 0.2 0.8 2614 Ballynafeigh 6.8 3.1 69.2 7.5 13.4 0.3 0.5 2615 Rosetta 3.4 3.0 79.0 5.2 9.4 0.1 0.7 2616 Upper Malone 3.9 3.1 80.7 3.5 8.9 0.2 0.6 2617 Finaghy 3.6 3.3 82.4 3.0 7.7 0.1 0.6 2618 Musgrave 3.0 2.8 80.1 3.8 10.3 0.1 0.8 2619 Blackstaff 5.0 3.5 71.1 5.5 15.0 0.3 0.5 2620 Malone 4.5 2.6 77.6 4.3 10.9 0.1 0.8 2621 Stranmillis 3.5 2.8 77.5 5.5 10.7 0.2 0.7 2622 Windsor 7.4 3.3 61.4 10.0 17.9 0.4 0.3 2623 Botanic 10.9 3.6 56.5 9.1 19.9 0.4 0.4 2624 Shaftesbury 8.8 5.0 65.3 4.3 16.6 0.3 0.5 Belfast West 6.4 4.6 71.4 3.4 14.1 5.2 0.7 1927 Twinbrook 6.7 5.3 66.2 3.4 18.3 0.3 0.3 1928 Poleglass 6.4 5.2 70.4 4.0 14.0 0.3 1.0

Page 67 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B3.1 The 2006 canvass: Components of change – Per cent of September 2006 base

Dec 05 reinstated Registered at 05 canvass or via rolling New from canvass registration Removed Re-registered Re-registered at canvass Did not re- Voting age Attainer Same address Diff. address register % % % % % % % 1929 Kilwee 6.9 5.6 70.6 3.7 13.3 0.2 0.9 1930 Collin Glen 9.7 7.1 59.8 4.9 18.5 0.2 0.9 2625 Ladybrook 5.1 4.2 76.4 3.5 10.8 0.1 1.0 2626 Glencolin 7.8 5.5 69.7 3.5 13.4 0.1 0.8 2627 Andersonstown 5.5 3.0 77.8 2.9 10.8 0.1 0.5 2628 Glen Road 4.8 4.8 76.0 3.6 10.9 0.1 0.9 2629 Falls Park 5.7 4.0 74.9 2.8 12.6 0.1 0.6 2630 Upper Springfield 7.2 4.1 68.2 2.5 18.0 0.1 0.7 2631 Whiterock 7.4 5.8 68.7 2.3 15.9 0.1 1.0 2632 Beechmount 6.8 4.1 70.5 3.8 14.8 0.1 0.4 2633 Highfield 5.0 3.5 76.7 3.4 11.4 0.1 0.5 2634 Glencairn 4.9 4.2 75.1 3.2 12.5 0.3 0.3 2637 Shankill 7.1 4.4 70.3 4.2 14.1 0.3 0.7 2638 Clonard 5.8 3.5 68.6 4.1 18.0 0.2 0.5 2639 Falls 7.4 4.9 67.8 3.0 16.9 0.1 0.4 East Antrim 3.1 2.9 81.2 4.6 8.2 4.8 0.8 601 Carnlough 2.1 1.6 85.0 4.4 6.9 0.3 1.6 602 Glenarm 1.2 2.0 86.1 5.6 5.2 0.3 2.0 603 Carncastle 2.1 2.2 84.4 4.1 7.2 0.2 0.3 604 Blackcave 2.7 3.0 79.9 6.2 8.1 0.4 0.8 605 Harbour 3.4 2.5 82.7 2.8 8.6 0.5 0.7 606 Central 3.3 2.5 78.3 5.4 10.4 0.5 0.7

Page 68 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B3.1 The 2006 canvass: Components of change – Per cent of September 2006 base

Dec 05 reinstated Registered at 05 canvass or via rolling New from canvass registration Removed Re-registered Re-registered at canvass Did not re- Voting age Attainer Same address Diff. address register % % % % % % % 607 Town Parks 3.7 2.2 81.4 3.7 9.1 0.4 0.6 608 Gardenmore 2.7 2.1 82.2 4.0 9.0 0.2 0.8 609 Craigy Hill 1.8 2.0 85.7 3.3 7.3 0.4 0.5 610 Ballyloran 4.3 2.8 74.2 9.5 9.2 0.5 0.2 611 Antiville 5.2 2.5 75.1 7.4 9.8 0.3 0.4 612 Kilwaughter 2.6 2.3 79.4 5.7 10.0 0.1 0.4 613 Glynn 3.3 1.9 87.0 2.1 5.7 0.3 1.0 614 Ballycarry 1.7 4.0 83.7 5.4 5.2 0.4 0.8 615 Island Magee 3.1 2.8 83.7 3.7 6.7 0.3 0.5 2108 Jordanstown 2.4 2.2 84.6 3.8 7.0 0.1 0.9 2109 Rostulla 3.5 3.2 78.2 5.6 9.3 0.2 0.6 2110 Monkstown 4.6 4.2 74.8 4.9 11.5 0.3 0.3 2115 Cloughfern 2.8 3.6 80.6 4.8 8.1 0.2 0.6 2201 Blackhead 2.2 3.8 82.7 5.9 5.4 0.5 0.7 2202 Whitehead 2.0 3.1 81.9 4.8 8.2 0.3 1.1 2203 Eden 2.5 3.1 83.3 4.0 6.9 0.2 1.2 2204 Boneybefore 1.3 2.1 87.1 4.0 5.5 0.3 0.5 2205 Bluefield 2.7 2.7 82.6 5.0 6.9 0.2 1.3 2206 Victoria 2.8 2.8 82.5 3.1 8.8 0.3 1.3 2207 Milebush 6.6 3.6 78.5 4.0 7.4 0.4 0.9 2208 Love Lane 4.8 5.7 75.6 5.0 8.9 0.6 0.7 2209 Sunnylands 4.9 3.6 76.2 5.1 10.2 0.3 0.7

Page 69 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B3.1 The 2006 canvass: Components of change – Per cent of September 2006 base

Dec 05 reinstated Registered at 05 canvass or via rolling New from canvass registration Removed Re-registered Re-registered at canvass Did not re- Voting age Attainer Same address Diff. address register % % % % % % % 2210 Northland 4.7 3.8 75.3 5.2 11.0 0.8 0.6 2211 Clipperstown 5.4 3.7 71.5 6.6 12.7 0.5 0.7 2212 Killycrot 5.0 3.3 73.6 6.3 11.7 0.4 0.3 2213 Woodburn 2.1 2.6 84.0 3.3 8.0 0.3 1.1 2214 Burleigh Hill 2.8 2.7 83.4 3.5 7.6 0.2 1.5 2215 Greenisland 4.3 4.5 78.4 5.5 7.2 0.3 0.7 2216 Gortalee 5.1 2.3 78.4 3.8 10.4 0.5 1.1 2217 Knockagh 2.2 2.2 85.6 3.7 6.3 0.3 0.9 East Londonderry 3.5 2.8 80.7 4.5 8.4 4.3 0.9 201 Magilligan 2.9 4.3 82.8 4.2 5.9 0.3 0.9 202 Aghanloo 2.6 3.5 81.8 4.9 7.2 0.2 1.3 203 Forest 2.6 2.4 82.3 3.7 9.0 0.2 1.6 204 Upper Glenshane 4.6 2.2 82.4 3.6 7.2 0.2 1.2 205 Feeny 4.0 3.8 79.7 4.2 8.3 0.3 1.9 206 Dungiven 4.0 4.1 79.8 4.0 8.2 0.3 1.3 207 The Highlands 2.6 2.0 83.5 4.0 7.9 0.2 0.8 208 Glack 2.9 3.5 83.0 3.2 7.4 0.2 0.7 209 Gresteel 5.1 4.0 77.3 4.2 9.3 0.3 0.8 210 Ballykelly 5.0 2.8 78.7 4.2 9.3 0.3 0.7 211 Roeside 3.7 3.7 78.8 5.2 8.7 0.4 0.8 212 Rathbrady 2.3 1.4 83.7 4.1 8.5 0.2 0.9 213 Enagh 3.6 2.6 79.8 5.4 8.7 0.2 1.1

Page 70 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B3.1 The 2006 canvass: Components of change – Per cent of September 2006 base

Dec 05 reinstated Registered at 05 canvass or via rolling New from canvass registration Removed Re-registered Re-registered at canvass Did not re- Voting age Attainer Same address Diff. address register % % % % % % % 214 Coolessan 5.7 4.3 74.9 5.2 9.9 0.7 0.3 215 Greystone 3.8 3.2 75.1 6.5 11.4 0.5 0.2 301 Kilrea 2.3 2.5 84.7 4.2 6.3 0.3 0.6 302 Agivey 2.2 2.4 85.7 3.3 6.4 0.2 1.4 303 Dundooan 2.1 1.8 85.3 4.5 6.4 0.2 1.1 304 Knocklynn 2.3 2.8 81.6 4.8 8.5 0.2 0.9 305 Dunluce 4.0 2.1 82.9 3.4 7.5 0.2 0.6 306 Royal Portrush 6.5 4.3 71.6 6.8 10.8 0.3 0.3 307 Hopefield 2.0 2.7 82.4 5.4 7.6 0.2 0.9 308 Atlantic 4.2 1.4 80.1 3.4 10.9 0.3 1.0 309 Portstewart 4.9 2.9 73.1 7.6 11.5 0.6 0.7 310 Strand 3.6 3.0 81.0 4.6 7.8 0.3 0.7 311 University 3.3 2.5 79.9 4.4 9.9 0.3 0.8 312 Ballysally 7.7 5.0 69.7 4.1 13.6 0.5 0.7 313 Central 6.4 1.9 72.1 5.6 13.9 0.3 0.6 314 Cross Glebe 5.1 3.4 74.1 5.0 12.4 0.4 0.6 315 Mount Sandel 5.2 2.7 78.1 4.7 9.3 0.3 1.0 316 The Cuts 3.2 2.7 81.9 4.7 7.5 0.2 0.9 317 Churchland 4.7 2.9 77.3 4.9 10.3 0.4 0.4 318 Waterside 2.3 2.1 85.3 4.5 5.8 0.1 1.6 319 Castlerock 2.8 2.3 82.1 5.2 7.6 0.2 0.8 320 Macosquin 2.0 2.5 86.9 3.1 5.6 0.2 1.3

Page 71 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B3.1 The 2006 canvass: Components of change – Per cent of September 2006 base

Dec 05 reinstated Registered at 05 canvass or via rolling New from canvass registration Removed Re-registered Re-registered at canvass Did not re- Voting age Attainer Same address Diff. address register % % % % % % % 321 Ringsend 1.2 2.0 88.1 2.2 6.4 0.2 1.0 322 Garvagh 1.5 2.3 85.1 5.3 5.8 0.2 0.6 Fermanagh & South Tyrone 2.9 2.3 83.4 4.1 7.3 3.7 1.1 1201 Rosslea 3.4 1.9 86.8 1.7 6.2 0.1 0.7 1202 Newtownbutler 3.2 2.4 83.1 3.2 8.1 0.2 0.9 1203 Donagh 2.5 1.5 84.7 4.1 7.2 0.1 1.5 1204 Lisnaskea 4.3 3.8 77.6 5.5 8.9 0.1 0.9 1205 Brookeborough 1.4 2.0 87.9 3.5 5.3 0.1 1.6 1206 Maguires Bridge 2.0 2.6 86.3 4.7 4.5 0.2 1.9 1207 Tempo 1.3 1.5 89.6 3.8 3.9 0.2 1.3 1208 Lisbellaw 1.8 1.9 85.6 4.9 5.8 0.2 1.1 1209 Ballinamallard 2.0 1.5 86.9 3.8 5.8 0.2 1.3 1210 Irvinestown 3.3 2.4 81.3 4.3 8.7 0.3 0.7 1211 Lisnarrick 1.3 2.2 85.6 3.4 7.6 0.3 1.5 1212 Kesh Ederney and Lack 1.4 1.6 85.7 5.8 5.5 0.1 1.3 1213 Belleek and Boa 2.2 2.5 82.4 3.4 9.5 0.3 0.8 1214 Belcoo and Garrison 4.0 2.6 82.9 2.5 8.0 0.2 1.0 1215 Derrygonnelly 2.7 1.8 84.4 4.4 6.7 0.2 1.4 1216 Boho Cleenish and Letterbre 2.3 2.3 85.9 3.4 6.1 0.1 1.0 1217 Florence Court and Kinawley 1.9 2.0 87.0 3.6 5.6 0.1 1.4 1218 Derrylin 1.8 2.1 87.8 3.8 4.5 0.2 1.5 1219 Rossorry 4.2 2.3 82.1 3.0 8.4 0.2 0.7

Page 72 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B3.1 The 2006 canvass: Components of change – Per cent of September 2006 base

Dec 05 reinstated Registered at 05 canvass or via rolling New from canvass registration Removed Re-registered Re-registered at canvass Did not re- Voting age Attainer Same address Diff. address register % % % % % % % 1220 Portora 4.0 2.7 78.8 4.3 10.2 0.2 0.6 1221 Devenish 5.7 3.7 76.8 3.9 10.0 0.5 0.8 1222 Erne 4.6 2.0 78.5 4.6 10.3 0.3 0.8 1223 Castlecoole 3.4 1.7 80.0 5.3 9.6 0.2 1.4 1301 Fivemiletown 2.1 1.9 83.8 4.6 7.6 0.1 0.7 1302 Clogher 1.8 2.7 87.1 3.6 4.8 0.1 1.9 1303 Augher 2.1 2.5 86.7 3.3 5.3 0.1 1.9 1304 Ballygawley 3.3 2.8 82.9 3.1 7.9 0.2 1.2 1305 Castlecaulfield 2.1 2.4 85.4 2.9 7.2 0.1 1.2 1312 Killyman 1.8 1.9 87.3 3.7 5.3 0.2 1.1 1313 Moy 2.5 3.2 83.4 5.7 5.2 0.3 1.1 1314 Benburb 2.6 1.6 84.1 4.4 7.3 0.2 1.1 1315 Caledon 1.0 2.4 86.7 3.7 6.2 0.2 1.1 1316 Aughnacloy 2.7 1.7 85.5 3.5 6.6 0.2 0.6 1317 Mullaghmore 4.5 3.3 77.4 3.9 11.0 0.4 0.8 1318 Ballysaggart 7.1 4.8 72.4 5.5 10.3 0.9 0.5 1319 Moygashel 2.6 1.9 84.6 4.8 6.1 0.2 1.4 1320 Coolhill 4.7 2.0 78.1 5.9 9.3 0.4 0.8 1321 Killymeal 2.7 2.6 78.7 5.9 10.1 0.3 1.6 1322 Drumglass 8.1 4.5 73.5 3.4 10.4 0.5 0.5 Foyle 6.1 5.2 75.1 4.0 9.7 5.6 0.9 101 Banagher 2.6 3.5 84.3 3.7 5.9 0.2 0.8

Page 73 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B3.1 The 2006 canvass: Components of change – Per cent of September 2006 base

Dec 05 reinstated Registered at 05 canvass or via rolling New from canvass registration Removed Re-registered Re-registered at canvass Did not re- Voting age Attainer Same address Diff. address register % % % % % % % 102 Claudy 3.9 3.8 81.2 4.7 6.4 0.2 0.8 103 Eglinton 3.9 3.2 80.5 4.5 7.9 0.2 1.0 104 Holly Mount 4.8 3.8 77.9 3.1 10.3 0.2 0.7 105 New Buildings 4.2 3.9 78.3 5.2 8.5 0.2 0.9 106 Enagh 5.0 4.7 75.9 3.5 10.9 0.3 1.3 107 Caw 5.3 3.7 77.7 5.2 8.2 0.3 0.8 108 Kilfennan 4.3 2.6 77.0 6.0 10.1 0.2 1.1 109 Altnagelvin 5.7 4.6 75.3 4.9 9.5 0.2 1.2 110 Lisnagelvin 2.9 2.1 84.9 4.1 6.0 0.2 0.5 111 Clondermot 3.8 4.1 79.6 3.8 8.7 0.2 1.1 112 Victoria 5.1 6.7 72.0 6.7 9.5 0.4 1.4 113 Ebrington 6.0 3.7 70.8 7.2 12.3 0.4 0.6 114 Crevagh 11.5 6.6 68.9 2.4 10.6 0.2 1.2 115 Springtown 7.4 7.1 74.5 3.4 7.7 0.3 1.4 116 Creggan South 6.5 7.0 74.2 2.8 9.4 0.3 0.9 117 Brandywell 8.3 8.5 69.0 3.7 10.5 0.3 0.7 118 The Diamond 5.6 3.6 72.9 5.2 12.7 0.4 1.0 119 Westland 6.3 7.0 70.9 3.3 12.4 0.3 0.7 120 Beechwood 5.2 6.2 78.2 2.8 7.6 0.4 0.7 121 Creggan Central 10.2 11.2 66.4 2.2 9.9 0.4 0.7 122 Rosemount 6.5 4.4 71.9 4.8 12.4 0.3 0.5 123 Foyle Springs 6.8 4.6 75.1 3.2 10.2 0.2 1.4

Page 74 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B3.1 The 2006 canvass: Components of change – Per cent of September 2006 base

Dec 05 reinstated Registered at 05 canvass or via rolling New from canvass registration Removed Re-registered Re-registered at canvass Did not re- Voting age Attainer Same address Diff. address register % % % % % % % 124 Strand 9.0 4.8 68.9 5.1 12.3 0.4 0.7 125 Pennyburn 4.8 4.3 78.8 2.8 9.2 0.2 0.5 126 Carn Hill 8.0 7.3 69.9 4.4 10.4 0.4 0.9 127 Shantallow West 8.5 6.9 69.0 3.6 12.0 0.2 1.1 128 Shantallow East 6.7 6.0 74.4 2.2 10.6 0.3 0.6 129 Ballynashallog 3.7 4.1 82.6 2.1 7.4 0.2 1.1 130 Culmore 7.7 6.1 71.2 4.0 11.0 0.1 0.9 Lagan Valley 3.1 3.0 81.4 4.4 8.1 4.2 1.0 1707 Gransha 2.4 3.0 83.6 3.7 7.2 0.2 0.8 1708 Dromore South 3.0 2.7 81.9 4.6 7.9 0.1 1.2 1709 Dromore North 3.9 3.4 80.8 4.3 7.6 0.2 0.5 1710 Quilly 1.7 2.9 86.0 3.2 6.2 0.1 1.1 1901 Glenavy 3.3 3.8 78.6 4.1 10.1 0.1 1.1 1902 Ballinderry 2.8 2.3 83.1 4.6 7.2 0.1 1.5 1903 Moira 2.3 2.6 79.5 7.2 8.4 0.2 1.1 1904 Maghaberry 2.6 3.3 82.5 4.5 7.1 0.1 1.0 1905 Maze 2.6 2.9 83.3 5.3 6.0 0.1 1.0 1906 Hillsborough 1.2 2.3 86.2 4.3 6.0 0.1 0.9 1907 Dromara 1.7 2.1 86.8 4.3 5.1 0.1 1.4 1908 Ballymacbrennan 2.0 1.4 86.7 2.7 7.2 0.1 1.3 1909 Drumbo 2.9 2.9 83.7 3.8 6.7 0.1 1.0 1910 Hillhall 3.7 2.1 83.2 3.4 7.6 0.2 1.1

Page 75 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B3.1 The 2006 canvass: Components of change – Per cent of September 2006 base

Dec 05 reinstated Registered at 05 canvass or via rolling New from canvass registration Removed Re-registered Re-registered at canvass Did not re- Voting age Attainer Same address Diff. address register % % % % % % % 1911 Blaris 2.8 2.0 83.4 4.9 6.8 0.2 1.1 1912 Knockmore 2.9 3.9 80.3 4.6 8.3 0.3 0.7 1913 Old Warren 6.3 4.0 73.1 5.2 11.3 0.4 0.8 1914 Lagan Valley 3.2 2.6 78.4 4.8 11.0 0.3 0.5 1915 Tonagh 3.9 3.8 78.2 5.1 9.1 0.4 0.8 1916 Ballymacoss 3.5 3.7 79.2 5.1 8.5 0.1 0.8 1917 Ballymacash 2.0 2.6 85.2 4.4 5.8 0.1 1.6 1918 Lisnagarvey 2.4 1.9 86.8 3.5 5.5 0.2 1.2 1919 Wallace Park 2.3 1.7 85.7 3.0 7.3 0.2 1.4 1920 Magheralave 2.4 2.3 85.0 3.0 7.3 0.2 0.9 1921 Harmony Hill 3.2 3.3 85.5 2.8 5.2 0.2 0.6 1922 Hilden 4.3 3.2 75.1 6.2 11.3 0.4 0.7 1923 Lambeg 5.2 3.7 78.3 3.9 8.9 0.2 1.1 1924 Derryaghy 5.0 4.5 71.9 5.0 13.6 0.1 0.8 1925 Seymour Hill 5.0 3.4 81.2 3.6 6.9 0.3 0.7 1926 Dunmurry 5.1 4.3 76.2 3.6 10.8 0.2 1.0 Mid Ulster 2.9 2.7 82.7 4.0 7.8 3.4 1.2 801 Swatragh 2.2 1.7 88.3 2.5 5.3 0.1 1.1 802 Upperlands 1.9 2.6 86.2 3.9 5.3 0.1 1.1 803 Valley 2.4 2.1 85.2 3.3 7.0 0.2 1.6 804 Lower Glenshane 1.3 1.6 88.6 3.2 5.4 0.1 1.2 805 Maghera 4.2 3.8 79.0 5.3 7.7 0.2 1.2

Page 76 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B3.1 The 2006 canvass: Components of change – Per cent of September 2006 base

Dec 05 reinstated Registered at 05 canvass or via rolling New from canvass registration Removed Re-registered Re-registered at canvass Did not re- Voting age Attainer Same address Diff. address register % % % % % % % 806 Gulladuff 2.6 2.1 85.6 3.5 6.2 0.2 1.3 807 Tobermore 1.7 1.8 88.4 3.5 4.5 0.1 1.8 808 Knockcloghrim 1.8 1.3 87.8 3.9 5.1 0.1 1.6 809 Bellaghy 4.0 3.7 81.0 3.2 8.0 0.1 1.2 810 Castledawson 2.5 3.1 81.4 6.0 7.0 0.2 1.3 811 Draperstown 2.0 2.8 84.8 4.1 6.3 0.2 0.9 812 Lecumpher 1.8 2.3 86.8 3.3 5.7 0.1 1.9 813 Ballymaguigan 3.9 3.0 84.3 3.1 5.7 0.2 1.2 814 Town Parks West 2.8 4.7 81.8 3.9 6.9 0.3 0.7 815 Glebe 3.5 2.8 77.1 6.1 10.6 0.3 1.0 816 Town Parks East 3.9 1.5 80.9 5.7 8.0 0.2 1.1 901 Dunnamore 2.7 4.0 82.9 3.4 7.0 0.2 1.0 902 Pomeroy 2.1 1.7 84.7 4.6 6.9 0.2 1.7 903 Lissan 1.7 1.7 81.9 3.5 11.2 0.1 1.2 904 Oaklands 1.9 1.2 87.3 3.5 6.1 0.1 2.2 905 Sandholes 2.5 1.5 85.5 3.8 6.7 0.2 1.1 906 Moneymore 2.1 3.1 82.7 5.2 6.9 0.3 0.9 907 Coagh 1.4 1.5 84.4 4.8 8.0 0.2 0.6 908 Stewartstown 3.2 1.2 83.7 3.2 8.7 0.3 1.5 909 The Loop 1.9 3.0 84.0 3.2 7.9 0.1 0.8 910 Ardboe 2.6 2.6 83.7 3.9 7.3 0.2 1.2 911 Killycolpy 2.6 2.8 82.6 3.3 8.7 0.2 1.1

Page 77 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B3.1 The 2006 canvass: Components of change – Per cent of September 2006 base

Dec 05 reinstated Registered at 05 canvass or via rolling New from canvass registration Removed Re-registered Re-registered at canvass Did not re- Voting age Attainer Same address Diff. address register % % % % % % % 912 Oldtown 3.6 2.1 78.2 5.4 10.7 0.3 0.9 913 Newbuildings 5.0 2.1 75.9 5.0 12.0 0.4 1.0 914 Tullagh 4.2 2.6 79.9 3.1 10.1 0.3 0.7 915 Gortalowry 5.5 4.4 72.3 5.1 12.7 0.4 1.1 916 Killymoon 4.8 4.7 78.0 3.5 9.0 0.3 1.3 1306 Altmore 2.1 2.4 84.8 3.7 7.1 0.1 0.9 1307 Donaghmore 3.2 2.8 83.6 3.4 7.0 0.2 1.0 1308 Coalisland West and Newmill 2.7 3.4 82.2 4.0 7.6 0.2 0.9 1309 Coalisland North 4.6 4.6 77.2 3.3 10.3 0.2 1.5 1310 Coalisland South 4.4 4.3 78.7 4.2 8.5 0.4 0.9 1311 Washing Bay 2.8 3.9 78.5 2.7 12.1 0.2 1.5 Newry & Armagh 3.2 3.0 82.2 3.6 8.0 4.4 1.1 1501 Charlemont 2.5 3.3 83.3 2.6 8.3 0.3 0.9 1502 Loughgall 2.1 2.6 88.1 2.8 4.4 0.2 0.8 1503 Hockley 1.3 1.4 87.7 4.9 4.7 0.2 0.8 1504 Ballymartrim 4.0 3.5 83.9 2.8 5.8 0.2 1.6 1505 Killylea 1.2 2.4 88.5 3.4 4.5 0.2 2.1 1506 Milford 2.4 3.1 85.1 3.3 6.2 0.3 0.9 1507 Derrynoose 3.6 2.4 84.6 2.0 7.3 0.2 1.3 1508 Keady 4.9 4.2 75.5 5.1 10.3 0.3 0.7 1509 Carrigatuke 2.6 2.6 83.6 1.8 9.4 0.1 1.6 1510 Killeen 2.0 2.6 87.1 2.5 5.8 0.1 1.8

Page 78 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B3.1 The 2006 canvass: Components of change – Per cent of September 2006 base

Dec 05 reinstated Registered at 05 canvass or via rolling New from canvass registration Removed Re-registered Re-registered at canvass Did not re- Voting age Attainer Same address Diff. address register % % % % % % % 1511 Markethill 1.8 1.7 84.6 4.5 7.4 0.2 1.3 1512 Poyntz Pass 2.5 2.0 85.6 2.8 7.2 0.1 1.4 1513 Tandragee 1.6 2.0 85.5 4.4 6.5 0.2 0.8 1514 Laurelvale 2.0 2.6 84.3 5.1 6.0 0.1 1.0 1515 Rich Hill 2.2 1.8 84.9 4.6 6.5 0.2 0.9 1516 Hamiltonsbawn 1.6 2.6 87.7 4.1 4.0 0.1 1.3 1517 Downs 4.9 4.0 76.3 4.8 10.1 0.4 1.3 1518 Callan Bridge 3.2 4.0 73.9 7.7 11.2 0.6 1.5 1519 Abbey Park 2.9 4.5 77.2 4.5 10.9 0.4 1.0 1520 Observatory 3.4 3.1 82.8 4.1 6.7 0.2 1.5 1521 The Mall 2.1 1.9 83.8 5.0 7.2 0.4 0.9 1522 Demesne 2.7 1.5 82.4 4.1 9.3 0.2 1.1 1614 Windsor Hill 3.3 4.2 80.6 3.6 8.3 0.3 1.2 1615 St Patrick's 3.1 3.6 79.4 4.4 9.6 0.3 1.0 1616 St Mary's 4.4 3.8 78.8 4.3 8.7 0.3 0.5 1617 Drumgullion 4.4 4.7 78.5 3.4 9.0 0.3 1.2 1618 Ballybot 5.7 4.4 75.5 3.3 11.0 0.4 0.4 1619 Daisy hill 6.7 4.1 74.6 3.5 11.1 0.4 0.9 1620 Drumalane 5.5 3.4 75.5 4.3 11.4 0.2 0.9 1621 Derrymore 5.1 3.7 78.3 3.2 9.7 0.3 0.6 1622 Bessbrook 3.8 2.7 83.0 3.0 7.6 0.3 0.8 1623 Tullyhappy 2.3 3.7 83.0 3.1 7.8 0.2 0.8

Page 79 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B3.1 The 2006 canvass: Components of change – Per cent of September 2006 base

Dec 05 reinstated Registered at 05 canvass or via rolling New from canvass registration Removed Re-registered Re-registered at canvass Did not re- Voting age Attainer Same address Diff. address register % % % % % % % 1624 Camlough 3.2 2.7 80.3 3.3 10.5 0.2 0.9 1625 Newtownhamilton 2.7 3.2 85.6 3.2 5.4 0.2 1.6 1626 Creggan 2.7 2.8 85.7 2.0 6.8 0.1 1.5 1627 Crossmaglen 3.7 2.6 81.6 2.7 9.3 0.2 1.0 1628 Silver Bridge 2.8 3.0 83.8 2.6 7.8 0.2 0.8 1629 Forkhill 3.5 2.6 79.6 3.4 10.8 0.1 0.9 1630 Fathom 3.7 3.0 82.0 2.4 8.9 0.2 0.9 North Antrim 3.0 2.4 82.0 4.6 8.0 3.8 0.9 401 Benvardin 2.2 1.6 83.7 4.1 8.3 0.2 0.8 402 Seacon 2.9 2.1 82.7 5.4 6.9 0.3 0.8 403 Dervock 1.5 2.2 87.9 3.1 5.3 0.3 1.4 404 Stranocum 2.1 1.8 85.0 4.5 6.6 0.4 0.6 405 Ballyhoe and Corkey 3.0 3.9 80.8 3.3 9.0 0.2 0.9 406 Knockaholet 1.7 2.2 86.8 4.0 5.4 0.5 1.2 407 Route 3.9 2.6 80.7 4.9 7.9 0.3 0.7 408 Glebe 3.5 2.1 80.5 5.2 8.6 0.2 0.9 409 Newhill 3.7 3.0 76.7 7.2 9.5 0.4 0.9 410 Carnany 3.7 2.4 81.7 4.7 7.5 0.3 1.0 411 Fairhill 1.9 2.0 86.2 4.0 5.8 0.2 0.5 412 The Vow 1.5 0.9 87.2 4.1 6.3 0.3 1.3 413 Killoquin Lower 3.0 2.4 83.3 3.9 7.4 0.2 0.8 414 Dunloy 3.2 0.9 81.8 3.2 11.0 0.1 0.6

Page 80 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B3.1 The 2006 canvass: Components of change – Per cent of September 2006 base

Dec 05 reinstated Registered at 05 canvass or via rolling New from canvass registration Removed Re-registered Re-registered at canvass Did not re- Voting age Attainer Same address Diff. address register % % % % % % % 415 Clogh Mills 3.0 2.9 79.2 5.3 9.6 0.2 0.4 416 Killoquin Upper 1.7 2.1 87.2 3.6 5.3 0.3 1.1 501 Bushmills 4.3 3.0 76.9 5.9 9.9 1.5 0.8 502 Ballylough 2.8 3.5 81.4 5.2 7.0 0.6 1.0 503 Dunseverick 1.3 2.0 86.8 4.5 5.5 0.5 1.1 504 Carnmoon 2.0 2.0 82.5 4.4 9.1 0.4 0.5 505 Kinbane 5.0 3.4 83.2 2.8 5.7 0.9 0.7 506 Moss-side and Moyarget 2.9 2.4 83.1 5.5 6.1 0.5 0.3 507 Armoy 2.8 2.8 80.0 4.9 9.6 0.6 0.1 508 Dalriada 5.8 5.3 73.3 5.0 10.6 0.5 1.1 509 Knocklayd 6.1 3.5 75.2 5.3 9.9 0.5 0.9 510 Glentaisie 4.9 4.3 74.9 5.5 10.3 0.8 0.4 511 Bonamargy and Rathlin 2.3 2.4 78.3 7.3 9.7 0.4 0.4 512 Glenshesk 2.2 2.4 84.4 5.2 5.7 0.7 0.6 513 Glendun 2.2 2.6 84.0 3.6 7.7 0.4 1.8 514 Glenaan 3.2 3.4 82.4 4.1 6.9 0.4 0.6 515 Glenariff 2.8 2.9 80.4 4.3 9.5 0.3 1.8 701 Glenravel 3.4 2.1 80.1 3.4 11.0 0.1 1.0 702 Slemish 1.9 2.1 85.7 3.4 6.8 0.2 1.0 703 Glenwhirry 1.9 2.4 85.0 3.9 6.8 0.2 1.5 704 Kells 2.2 3.0 83.2 4.4 7.2 0.2 1.2 705 Grange 2.9 2.2 85.5 3.0 6.5 0.1 1.1

Page 81 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B3.1 The 2006 canvass: Components of change – Per cent of September 2006 base

Dec 05 reinstated Registered at 05 canvass or via rolling New from canvass registration Removed Re-registered Re-registered at canvass Did not re- Voting age Attainer Same address Diff. address register % % % % % % % 706 Ahoghill 2.8 1.8 81.1 5.7 8.6 0.1 0.7 707 Portglenone 3.8 2.1 83.4 3.0 7.7 0.2 1.4 708 Dunminning 2.6 1.3 86.1 3.1 6.8 0.1 0.9 709 Craigywarren 0.5 0.5 92.2 4.2 2.6 0.1 1.5 710 Cullybackey 2.8 1.6 83.2 4.8 7.5 0.1 0.9 711 Broughshane 2.4 1.8 83.5 4.1 8.2 0.1 1.0 712 Galgorm 1.3 2.2 86.2 5.2 5.1 0.1 1.5 713 Academy 2.2 2.1 86.4 3.9 5.5 0.2 1.0 714 Ballyloughan 1.3 2.2 86.7 4.0 5.8 0.1 1.1 715 Park 3.7 2.2 79.1 6.6 8.4 0.4 0.5 716 Dunclug 6.9 3.2 66.2 10.7 13.0 0.5 1.0 717 Fair Green 4.6 3.6 76.0 5.1 10.7 0.4 0.2 718 Summerfield 3.5 3.1 76.4 5.0 11.9 0.2 1.0 719 Castle Demesne 4.8 2.9 75.9 6.3 10.0 0.7 0.8 720 Ardeevin 2.3 1.9 82.8 5.2 7.9 0.2 0.8 721 Harryville 3.3 1.9 79.4 6.0 9.4 0.3 0.1 722 Ballee 4.9 4.9 76.1 5.0 9.1 0.4 0.8 723 Moat 3.4 3.0 80.5 4.1 8.9 0.4 0.8 724 Ballykeel 7.4 3.6 72.9 4.3 11.8 0.5 1.1 North Down 3.2 2.7 80.6 4.6 8.9 4.8 0.7 2301 Groomsport 2.1 1.5 87.1 3.7 5.7 0.2 0.8 2302 Churchill 1.8 1.8 83.3 3.9 9.2 0.2 0.7

Page 82 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B3.1 The 2006 canvass: Components of change – Per cent of September 2006 base

Dec 05 reinstated Registered at 05 canvass or via rolling New from canvass registration Removed Re-registered Re-registered at canvass Did not re- Voting age Attainer Same address Diff. address register % % % % % % % 2303 Ballyholme 2.8 3.0 82.3 4.8 7.0 0.3 1.2 2304 Broadway 1.9 2.4 84.7 3.5 7.6 0.2 0.4 2305 Ballymaconnell 2.5 2.0 82.8 4.9 7.9 0.2 1.1 2306 Ballymagee 2.4 2.8 82.4 4.1 8.2 0.2 1.2 2307 Ballycrochan 3.3 3.0 79.9 4.9 8.9 0.1 1.1 2308 Harbour 5.9 2.5 68.3 7.5 15.8 0.4 0.4 2309 Bangor Castle 2.8 2.1 82.6 5.6 6.9 0.2 0.4 2310 Bloomfield 5.2 2.7 75.6 6.2 10.4 0.2 0.7 2311 Whitehill 3.8 4.0 78.3 4.8 9.2 0.4 0.6 2312 Conlig 3.6 3.8 77.5 5.3 9.8 0.2 0.6 2313 Princetown 2.0 1.9 85.9 3.7 6.5 0.2 0.7 2314 Bryansburn 1.6 1.5 85.6 4.8 6.4 0.2 0.5 2315 Silverstream 6.0 3.5 75.0 5.7 9.8 0.3 0.4 2316 Rathgael 2.6 1.7 81.2 4.2 10.3 0.3 0.8 2317 Clandeboye 4.4 3.6 74.6 5.8 11.6 0.2 0.9 2318 Dufferin 5.2 3.2 75.6 3.5 12.5 0.3 0.6 2319 Springhill 1.7 2.1 84.3 3.6 8.3 0.1 0.7 2320 Crawfordsburn 2.5 2.5 83.6 4.2 7.2 0.2 0.4 2321 Craigavad 3.3 2.7 82.2 4.0 7.8 0.2 0.8 2322 Cultra 3.6 2.4 81.3 3.2 9.6 0.2 1.0 2323 Holywood Priory 2.4 3.0 82.2 3.6 8.8 0.2 0.9 2324 Holywood Demesne 3.9 3.6 79.4 5.5 7.6 0.4 0.3

Page 83 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B3.1 The 2006 canvass: Components of change – Per cent of September 2006 base

Dec 05 reinstated Registered at 05 canvass or via rolling New from canvass registration Removed Re-registered Re-registered at canvass Did not re- Voting age Attainer Same address Diff. address register % % % % % % % 2325 Loughview 4.5 3.2 75.9 4.3 12.1 0.5 0.4 2416 Donaghadee North 2.3 2.3 83.0 4.6 7.7 0.2 0.6 2417 Donaghadee South 2.7 1.8 83.2 4.0 8.3 0.2 1.2 2418 Millisle 3.5 2.9 79.9 4.6 9.2 0.2 0.8 South Antrim 3.0 3.0 81.0 4.4 8.6 5.0 0.8 2001 Toome 4.0 2.6 82.4 2.6 8.5 0.2 1.2 2002 Drumanaway 2.5 2.2 85.2 3.9 6.2 0.2 0.9 2003 Cranfield 2.9 2.6 84.0 3.6 6.9 0.3 0.9 2004 Randalstown 3.2 3.3 80.9 4.6 8.1 0.2 0.8 2005 Shilvodan 1.7 1.5 86.7 3.8 6.2 0.3 0.9 2006 Templepatrick 1.5 2.3 86.0 4.3 5.9 0.2 0.8 2007 Farranshane 2.6 4.3 75.0 5.2 12.9 0.6 0.7 2008 Springfarm 3.7 5.8 76.9 4.1 9.5 0.6 0.7 2009 Massereene 2.5 3.2 80.5 5.1 8.6 0.2 0.5 2010 Balloo 3.9 3.7 79.9 4.6 7.9 0.3 0.5 2011 Fountain Hill 3.9 4.1 76.3 5.1 10.6 0.7 0.6 2012 Steeple 3.5 1.9 76.9 3.7 14.0 0.4 0.3 2013 Stiles 4.9 2.5 75.4 5.5 11.7 0.5 0.7 2014 Greystone 3.1 3.2 80.0 4.7 8.9 0.5 0.6 2015 Parkgate 2.0 1.2 81.7 3.7 11.4 0.2 0.8 2016 Ballycraigy 3.9 4.5 78.4 5.5 7.7 0.6 0.5 2017 Clady 2.7 2.0 83.1 4.0 8.1 0.2 1.1

Page 84 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B3.1 The 2006 canvass: Components of change – Per cent of September 2006 base

Dec 05 reinstated Registered at 05 canvass or via rolling New from canvass registration Removed Re-registered Re-registered at canvass Did not re- Voting age Attainer Same address Diff. address register % % % % % % % 2018 Aldergrove 2.4 3.3 80.3 4.8 9.2 0.3 0.8 2019 Crumlin 5.0 4.9 72.5 5.5 12.1 0.2 0.7 2101 Mallusk 3.0 4.1 77.3 5.1 10.5 0.1 1.3 2102 Doagh 1.8 1.4 84.0 5.0 7.8 0.2 0.7 2103 Ballyclare North 2.9 3.5 82.3 4.6 6.7 0.2 0.8 2104 Ballyclare South 2.9 2.1 79.9 5.6 9.5 0.2 0.7 2105 Ballynure 1.2 2.5 85.4 4.5 6.3 0.2 0.9 2106 Ballyrobert 2.4 2.9 83.5 5.3 5.9 0.1 0.8 2107 Hawthorne 2.8 3.4 81.1 4.5 8.3 0.2 0.4 2111 Ballyduff 3.3 3.5 79.1 5.2 8.9 0.2 0.9 2112 Carnmoney 3.2 2.4 84.1 2.9 7.5 0.2 0.5 2113 Mossley 5.2 2.4 80.7 3.7 8.1 0.3 0.8 2114 Burnthill 3.1 2.6 83.1 3.7 7.5 0.2 0.9 2116 Ballyhenry 2.8 1.8 82.7 4.3 8.4 0.2 0.7 2117 Glengormley 4.1 3.6 79.6 4.3 8.4 0.3 0.6 2118 Glebe 2.9 3.5 81.5 3.2 8.9 0.2 1.3 2119 Hightown 3.5 2.4 82.9 3.9 7.3 0.2 0.4 2120 Collinbridge 2.4 2.6 83.5 2.9 8.7 0.3 1.0 South Down 3.4 3.4 81.2 4.0 8.1 4.3 1.0 1601 Annalong 2.3 1.7 86.3 2.9 6.8 0.1 1.2 1602 Binnian 2.1 2.6 85.9 3.6 5.8 0.2 1.3 1603 Kilkeel Central 2.8 2.8 83.5 4.2 6.8 0.1 1.4

Page 85 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B3.1 The 2006 canvass: Components of change – Per cent of September 2006 base

Dec 05 reinstated Registered at 05 canvass or via rolling New from canvass registration Removed Re-registered Re-registered at canvass Did not re- Voting age Attainer Same address Diff. address register % % % % % % % 1604 Kilkeel South 2.8 3.2 80.6 5.1 8.2 0.1 1.1 1605 Lisnacree 1.4 3.1 87.4 2.4 5.8 0.3 1.4 1606 Rostrevor 4.4 4.6 79.4 3.5 8.0 0.3 0.6 1607 Seaview 3.9 4.4 77.0 3.2 11.4 0.3 0.9 1608 Clonallan 4.8 3.7 74.5 4.8 12.2 0.2 0.9 1609 Derryleckagh 4.3 4.8 80.7 3.5 6.8 0.2 1.5 1610 Burren and Kilbroney 4.0 5.6 79.0 3.3 8.1 0.3 1.3 1611 Spelga 3.5 3.9 82.1 3.2 7.1 0.2 1.2 1612 Mayobridge 4.9 3.6 79.7 3.0 8.9 0.2 1.2 1613 Donaghmore 1.5 2.9 85.2 3.9 6.4 0.1 1.4 1704 Bannside 1.6 1.7 89.0 3.3 4.3 0.2 1.6 1705 Katesbridge 1.3 2.7 88.8 3.3 3.9 0.1 1.4 1706 Ballyward 2.3 1.8 83.9 3.8 8.1 0.2 0.9 1711 Rathfriland 2.9 2.2 79.4 5.9 9.5 0.2 0.8 1802 Kilmore 2.3 3.2 84.5 3.8 6.2 0.2 1.1 1803 Ballynahinch East 3.6 3.1 77.6 7.4 8.3 0.3 0.5 1804 Ballymaglave 3.6 2.2 80.1 5.0 9.2 0.2 0.8 1805 Drumaness 3.3 3.4 79.8 3.4 10.0 0.2 0.8 1808 Crossgar 2.8 3.7 81.9 3.9 7.7 0.2 1.4 1809 Quoile 3.6 3.5 81.7 3.6 7.7 0.3 1.1 1810 Audley's Acre 4.3 2.9 81.3 3.9 7.6 0.3 1.1 1811 Ballymote 7.3 5.5 69.4 5.3 12.6 0.5 0.3

Page 86 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B3.1 The 2006 canvass: Components of change – Per cent of September 2006 base

Dec 05 reinstated Registered at 05 canvass or via rolling New from canvass registration Removed Re-registered Re-registered at canvass Did not re- Voting age Attainer Same address Diff. address register % % % % % % % 1812 Cathedral 5.4 5.0 75.0 4.4 10.3 0.2 0.5 1813 Strangford 2.5 3.6 81.8 4.6 7.5 0.2 0.8 1814 Ardglass 4.9 2.5 78.8 4.4 9.4 0.3 0.8 1815 Killough 3.6 4.4 78.0 3.5 10.4 0.3 1.1 1816 Seaforde 2.7 2.4 85.7 3.8 5.4 0.2 1.0 1817 Dunmore 2.3 3.5 84.6 2.6 7.0 0.2 1.0 1818 Castlewellan 4.6 4.4 78.5 3.9 8.6 0.2 0.8 1819 Dundrum 2.3 3.0 81.3 4.5 8.9 0.3 1.1 1820 Murlough 3.3 4.1 80.6 3.4 8.7 0.3 0.7 1821 Shimna 3.6 2.0 81.5 3.5 9.3 0.2 1.1 1822 Donard 3.4 3.3 78.5 5.7 9.2 0.2 0.8 1823 Tollymore 3.1 3.0 81.8 4.1 8.1 0.2 0.9 Strangford 2.9 2.7 81.6 4.5 8.3 4.2 0.9 1801 Saintfield 2.4 2.4 85.8 4.0 5.4 0.2 0.8 1806 Derryboy 2.4 2.4 85.1 4.2 5.9 0.2 0.8 1807 Killyleagh 2.7 2.9 80.7 5.7 8.1 0.3 0.8 2401 Killinchy 2.3 2.8 85.4 3.8 5.8 0.2 0.9 2402 Ballygowan 2.1 2.2 84.3 4.0 7.4 0.2 1.0 2403 Lisbane 1.2 1.5 85.8 3.8 7.7 0.1 0.8 2404 Comber West 2.1 2.2 82.7 6.1 6.9 0.1 1.2 2405 Comber East 2.5 2.4 80.9 5.1 9.1 0.3 1.0 2406 Comber North 3.0 2.0 81.5 4.6 8.9 0.2 0.7

Page 87 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B3.1 The 2006 canvass: Components of change – Per cent of September 2006 base

Dec 05 reinstated Registered at 05 canvass or via rolling New from canvass registration Removed Re-registered Re-registered at canvass Did not re- Voting age Attainer Same address Diff. address register % % % % % % % 2407 Scrabo 5.4 4.6 73.2 5.7 11.0 0.4 0.3 2408 Ballyrainey 2.8 2.5 81.8 3.9 9.0 0.2 0.7 2409 Bradshaw's Brae 2.1 2.4 84.5 3.7 7.3 0.2 1.0 2410 Glen 4.7 3.4 78.4 4.1 9.5 0.2 0.9 2411 Whitespots 1.9 2.4 84.3 4.1 7.3 0.2 1.1 2412 Movilla 2.8 3.0 80.0 5.0 9.3 0.1 1.5 2413 Central 3.2 3.0 77.8 6.1 9.8 0.3 0.5 2414 Gregstown 3.4 2.7 80.1 3.7 10.1 0.1 0.6 2415 Loughries 3.5 3.3 78.6 5.2 9.4 0.2 0.8 2419 Carrowdore 2.6 2.8 82.9 4.8 7.0 0.2 0.7 2420 Ballywalter 2.4 3.3 81.2 4.3 8.9 0.2 0.6 2421 Portavogie 3.4 2.5 80.9 5.2 8.0 0.2 0.5 2422 Kircubbin 3.5 2.6 80.7 3.7 9.5 0.2 1.0 2423 Portaferry 2.9 3.5 80.8 4.5 8.3 0.2 0.8 2501 Dundonald 2.8 2.7 82.3 4.2 8.0 0.2 1.0 2502 Carrowreagh 3.9 3.9 79.3 3.8 9.1 0.2 0.7 2503 Enler 5.1 3.0 76.6 3.5 11.8 0.3 0.7 2504 Graham's Bridge 4.7 2.8 77.1 5.6 9.9 0.2 0.7 2505 Ballyhanwood 1.8 1.9 85.0 4.2 7.0 0.1 1.1 2509 Moneyreagh 2.2 2.3 85.7 3.8 6.0 0.1 1.3 2520 Carryduff West 2.8 3.0 81.2 4.6 8.4 0.2 0.9 2521 Carryduff East 2.7 2.8 81.9 4.4 8.1 0.1 1.0

Page 88 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B3.1 The 2006 canvass: Components of change – Per cent of September 2006 base

Dec 05 reinstated Registered at 05 canvass or via rolling New from canvass registration Removed Re-registered Re-registered at canvass Did not re- Voting age Attainer Same address Diff. address register % % % % % % % Upper Bann 3.1 3.2 80.9 5.1 7.8 4.9 1.0 1401 The Birches 2.0 2.5 84.5 4.6 6.4 0.1 1.5 1402 Derrytrasna 2.2 4.0 84.2 3.5 6.1 0.1 1.6 1403 Aghagallon 3.1 3.0 82.4 4.5 6.9 0.2 1.2 1404 Magheralin 2.0 2.4 84.4 5.2 5.9 0.1 1.0 1405 Donaghcloney 2.2 2.9 83.1 5.4 6.5 0.2 1.5 1406 Waringstown 1.9 2.4 84.0 4.7 7.0 0.1 1.2 1407 Bleary 2.1 2.5 84.2 4.1 7.1 0.1 1.1 1408 Ballyoran 2.4 4.4 80.3 4.3 8.6 0.3 1.6 1409 Corcrain 6.8 4.4 69.0 5.6 14.2 0.4 1.1 1410 Ballybay 3.4 4.2 77.9 5.6 8.9 0.4 0.8 1411 Brownstown 1.8 2.7 81.8 6.3 7.4 0.2 0.8 1412 Tavanagh 4.5 2.9 78.5 4.6 9.4 0.2 0.7 1413 Annagh 5.3 3.2 76.7 5.8 9.0 0.4 0.9 1414 Edenderry 2.8 2.0 83.1 5.9 6.2 0.2 1.2 1415 Killycomain 2.2 1.8 83.4 5.7 6.9 0.2 0.8 1416 Kernan 2.7 3.0 82.7 4.9 6.7 0.2 1.3 1417 Drumgor 4.3 3.7 75.6 6.1 10.4 0.7 0.7 1418 Drumgask 7.1 5.0 71.7 5.3 10.9 0.4 0.9 1419 Woodville 4.6 3.4 78.2 5.1 8.7 0.2 0.8 1420 Drumnamoe 3.8 4.7 79.0 4.3 8.2 0.2 0.8 1421 Parklake 3.2 4.2 80.4 4.8 7.4 0.2 0.5

Page 89 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B3.1 The 2006 canvass: Components of change – Per cent of September 2006 base

Dec 05 reinstated Registered at 05 canvass or via rolling New from canvass registration Removed Re-registered Re-registered at canvass Did not re- Voting age Attainer Same address Diff. address register % % % % % % % 1422 Court 4.4 3.5 79.2 4.4 8.6 0.3 0.5 1423 Taghnevan 3.9 4.1 79.0 5.0 7.9 0.4 0.7 1424 Mourneview 3.1 4.3 80.0 4.3 8.3 0.2 0.7 1425 Church 3.1 2.8 82.2 4.5 7.4 0.2 0.8 1426 Knocknashane 1.8 2.9 86.4 4.9 3.9 0.2 0.7 1701 Gilford 3.8 2.7 78.9 4.7 9.9 0.3 0.8 1702 Lawrencetown 2.5 4.2 80.5 5.6 7.1 0.3 0.8 1703 Loughbrickland 1.7 2.5 86.2 4.2 5.4 0.2 1.1 1712 Edenderry 3.9 3.0 77.6 5.9 9.6 0.4 0.3 1713 Banbridge West 2.3 3.1 79.2 6.8 8.5 0.3 0.7 1714 Fort 2.5 2.8 81.6 5.1 8.0 0.2 1.4 1715 Ballydown 2.2 2.1 80.8 6.4 8.6 0.2 0.9 1716 Seapatrick 2.1 2.2 85.0 4.7 6.1 0.2 1.4 1717 The Cut 4.7 3.7 73.5 7.4 10.8 0.4 0.6 West Tyrone 3.7 3.0 81.3 3.7 8.3 3.9 1.0 1001 Glenderg 2.3 1.3 87.4 3.3 5.8 0.2 1.1 1002 Castlederg 3.2 2.8 82.1 4.1 7.8 0.3 0.7 1003 Clare 1.0 1.4 88.8 3.6 5.2 0.2 1.4 1004 Newtownstewart 3.4 3.2 80.8 3.7 9.0 0.2 0.5 1005 Plumbridge 2.1 1.8 87.6 2.9 5.6 0.2 0.6 1006 Victoria Bridge 1.7 2.1 85.9 4.2 6.0 0.2 1.0 1007 Finn 4.7 3.5 80.1 3.4 8.4 0.3 1.1

Page 90 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B3.1 The 2006 canvass: Components of change – Per cent of September 2006 base

Dec 05 reinstated Registered at 05 canvass or via rolling New from canvass registration Removed Re-registered Re-registered at canvass Did not re- Voting age Attainer Same address Diff. address register % % % % % % % 1008 Sion Mills 2.7 3.5 81.8 4.5 7.5 0.3 0.6 1009 Dunnamanagh 1.8 2.4 85.5 3.0 7.3 0.2 1.3 1010 Slievekirk 2.5 3.7 84.8 2.2 6.8 0.2 1.6 1011 Artigarvan 3.2 2.8 85.6 3.2 5.2 0.3 0.9 1012 North 4.2 4.9 75.6 4.4 11.0 0.3 1.1 1013 West 6.4 4.8 73.4 3.9 11.5 0.2 0.8 1014 East 7.6 5.8 69.1 3.2 14.3 0.3 1.0 1015 South 6.2 4.0 74.3 2.8 12.7 0.2 0.9 1016 Ballycolman 8.6 4.9 74.1 2.6 9.9 0.4 0.9 1101 Trillick 2.5 2.0 84.8 4.2 6.4 0.1 0.9 1102 Dromore 2.7 2.7 83.6 3.8 7.2 0.3 0.9 1103 Drumquin 2.4 2.6 82.1 4.5 8.3 0.2 0.9 1104 Fairy Water 2.0 2.0 87.4 3.3 5.3 0.2 1.1 1105 Clanabogan 2.2 3.2 85.6 3.6 5.4 0.2 1.0 1106 Fintona 5.6 2.7 78.5 3.6 9.5 0.2 1.0 1107 Newtownsaville 3.0 1.2 84.9 4.3 6.6 0.1 1.1 1108 Sixmilecross 2.2 1.3 85.2 4.6 6.7 0.2 1.5 1109 Beragh 2.6 2.1 84.3 3.9 7.0 0.3 1.1 1110 Drumnakilly 3.0 3.5 83.9 3.0 6.7 0.2 1.4 1111 Termon 2.8 2.7 84.2 2.8 7.6 0.2 1.3 1112 Owenkillew 2.8 2.1 85.4 2.2 7.5 0.1 1.1 1113 Gortin 2.8 2.5 85.7 3.0 6.0 0.1 1.1

Page 91 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B3.1 The 2006 canvass: Components of change – Per cent of September 2006 base

Dec 05 reinstated Registered at 05 canvass or via rolling New from canvass registration Removed Re-registered Re-registered at canvass Did not re- Voting age Attainer Same address Diff. address register % % % % % % % 1114 Lisanelly 8.3 4.3 70.6 4.5 12.3 0.6 0.6 1115 Killyclogher 5.7 4.0 73.9 4.6 11.8 0.2 0.9 1116 Camowen 3.7 3.1 79.4 4.0 9.9 0.4 0.7 1117 Drumragh 3.5 1.8 82.1 4.3 8.2 0.3 1.2 1118 Dergmoney 3.3 3.2 80.5 4.1 8.8 0.2 0.9 1119 Coolnagard 5.0 2.9 77.4 4.4 10.4 0.3 0.7 1120 Gortrush 5.9 4.3 73.4 4.0 12.3 0.3 0.9 1121 Strule 3.6 2.4 78.8 5.3 9.9 0.6 0.5 Source: EONI.

Page 92 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B4.1 Continuous registration: Net changes by Electoral Ward Register Net change: Deprivation Area Catholic share June ‘07 Dec '06 - Mar Mar '07 - June Dec '06 - June Decile of population '07 '07 '07 % % % % % N. Ireland 1,122,105 4.3 0.1 4.4 Belfast East 50,223 3.5 -0.1 3.4 2506 Tullycarnet 1,411 3.5 -0.4 3.1 2 Urban 2.6 2507 Gilnahirk 1,732 2.8 -0.1 2.7 10 Urban 5.4 2508 Upper Braniel 1,611 2.1 0.0 2.1 8 Urban 2.7 2511 Lower Braniel 1,735 3.3 -0.3 3.0 8 Urban 3.6 2512 Hillfoot 1,858 2.8 -0.2 2.6 10 Urban 20.6 2513 Lisnasharragh 1,475 3.4 -0.3 3.0 5 Urban 2.3 2514 Downshire 1,552 3.7 0.1 3.8 8 Urban 4.9 2515 Cregagh 1,262 2.5 0.2 2.7 3 Urban 5.0 2516 Wynchurch 1,424 2.4 0.0 2.4 10 Urban 41.1 2601 Sydenham 3,043 3.9 -0.4 3.6 3 Urban 3.8 2602 Island 2,277 4.2 0.2 4.4 1 Urban 5.3 2603 Ballymacarrett 2,737 6.9 0.2 7.1 1 Urban 50.7 2604 Bloomfield 3,131 4.3 -0.0 4.3 3 Urban 5.1 2605 Ballyhackamore 3,761 4.2 -0.1 4.1 8 Urban 11.6 2606 Belmont 3,998 3.3 0.1 3.4 7 Urban 3.9 2607 Stormont 3,997 3.7 -0.1 3.6 10 Urban 8.7 2608 Cherryvalley 3,784 2.3 0.1 2.4 9 Urban 8.9 2609 Knock 3,278 3.1 -0.3 2.8 8 Urban 5.1 2610 Orangefield 3,784 2.7 -0.2 2.5 8 Urban 3.3 2611 The Mount 2,373 2.8 0.1 3.0 1 Urban 4.0

Page 93 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B4.1 Continuous registration: Net changes by Electoral Ward Register Net change: Deprivation Area Catholic share June ‘07 Dec '06 - Mar Mar '07 - June Dec '06 - June Decile of population '07 '07 '07 % % % % % Belfast North 49,897 5.3 0.0 5.3 2121 Coole 1,458 3.7 -0.1 3.6 1 Urban 2.4 2122 Dunanney 1,298 3.7 0.0 3.7 1 Urban 1.6 2123 Abbey 1,758 3.1 0.1 3.2 7 Urban 17.3 2124 Whitehouse 1,462 2.4 -0.3 2.1 2 Urban 5.4 2125 Valley 2,025 4.2 0.0 4.2 2 Urban 51.5 2635 Woodvale 2,381 2.9 0.0 2.9 1 Urban 2.6 2636 Crumlin 2,346 3.4 0.2 3.6 1 Urban 3.6 2640 New Lodge 3,111 9.8 -0.3 9.5 1 Urban 97.4 2641 Duncairn 1,978 3.6 -0.2 3.4 1 Urban 5.5 2642 Water Works 3,281 7.3 0.1 7.4 1 Urban 90.7 2643 Ardoyne 3,358 11.4 0.1 11.5 1 Urban 96.4 2644 Legoniel 3,459 4.6 0.2 4.8 1 Urban 37.7 2645 Ballysillan 3,384 3.1 -0.1 3.0 2 Urban 4.4 2646 Cliftonville 3,161 6.9 0.2 7.0 2 Urban 68.3 2647 Chichester Park 3,170 6.0 0.3 6.3 3 Urban 74.9 2648 Fortwilliam 2,883 3.8 0.0 3.9 5 Urban 32.9 2649 Cavehill 3,411 4.7 0.1 4.8 9 Urban 51.3 2650 Castleview 3,080 3.6 -0.2 3.3 4 Urban 31.2 2651 Bellevue 2,893 6.9 0.3 7.2 4 Urban 60.7 Belfast South 49,608 5.0 0.1 5.1 2510 Galwally 1,693 2.7 -0.1 2.6 10 Urban 45.8 2517 Newtownbreda 1,712 2.7 0.1 2.8 10 Urban 30.7

Page 94 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B4.1 Continuous registration: Net changes by Electoral Ward Register Net change: Deprivation Area Catholic share June ‘07 Dec '06 - Mar Mar '07 - June Dec '06 - June Decile of population '07 '07 '07 % % % % % 2518 Cairnshill 2,288 3.8 -0.0 3.7 10 Urban 42.7 2519 Knockbracken 1,999 3.6 -0.1 3.5 10 Urban 39.1 2522 Beechill 2,752 3.4 0.4 3.8 9 Urban 29.7 2523 Minnowburn 1,449 3.5 -0.1 3.4 3 Urban 3.5 2612 Woodstock 2,749 4.1 0.0 4.1 1 Urban 6.2 2613 Ravenhill 3,478 5.1 -0.0 5.1 7 Urban 25.6 2614 Ballynafeigh 2,474 4.8 0.7 5.5 4 Urban 59.0 2615 Rosetta 3,628 4.4 0.3 4.7 8 Urban 57.9 2616 Upper Malone 3,105 4.5 -0.0 4.4 6 Urban 24.7 2617 Finaghy 3,333 4.4 0.2 4.6 9 Urban 44.6 2618 Musgrave 3,217 4.7 0.2 4.9 7 Urban 59.7 2619 Blackstaff 2,072 5.6 0.2 5.8 1 Urban 4.2 2620 Malone 3,481 6.2 0.1 6.3 10 Urban 55.9 2621 Stranmillis 3,193 6.1 -0.2 5.9 10 Urban 48.3 2622 Windsor 2,091 7.3 0.4 7.7 6 Urban 43.4 2623 Botanic 1,746 10.5 0.6 11.2 5 Urban 66.9 2624 Shaftesbury 3,148 6.8 0.3 7.0 1 Urban 36.9 Belfast West 51,290 11.6 0.1 11.7 1927 Twinbrook 1,682 17.8 0.4 18.2 1 Urban 96.9 1928 Poleglass 2,347 15.0 0.1 15.2 3 Urban 97.9 1929 Kilwee 2,173 15.8 -0.0 15.7 2 Urban 97.6 1930 Collin Glen 2,840 19.4 0.1 19.5 1 Mixed 96.1 2625 Ladybrook 4,080 8.0 0.2 8.2 2 Urban 86.5

Page 95 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B4.1 Continuous registration: Net changes by Electoral Ward Register Net change: Deprivation Area Catholic share June ‘07 Dec '06 - Mar Mar '07 - June Dec '06 - June Decile of population '07 '07 '07 % % % % % 2626 Glencolin 4,117 14.0 0.1 14.1 1 Mixed 98.1 2627 Andersonstown 3,690 9.8 -0.1 9.6 2 Urban 98.5 2628 Glen Road 3,782 9.9 -0.0 9.8 1 Urban 97.2 2629 Falls Park 3,637 10.0 0.0 10.0 2 Urban 97.8 2630 Upper Springfield 3,334 19.1 0.0 19.1 1 Urban 96.9 2631 Whiterock 3,321 14.2 -0.1 14.1 1 Urban 99.0 2632 Beechmount 3,171 12.0 0.1 12.0 1 Urban 92.2 2633 Highfield 3,328 3.4 -0.0 3.3 2 Urban 4.2 2634 Glencairn 2,195 3.9 -0.2 3.7 1 Urban 12.3 2637 Shankill 2,060 3.5 0.0 3.6 1 Urban 3.2 2638 Clonard 2,529 12.7 0.4 13.2 1 Urban 96.1 2639 Falls 3,004 14.7 0.3 15.1 1 Urban 96.9 East Antrim 57,250 2.8 0.0 2.9 601 Carnlough 1,365 1.6 -0.2 1.3 3 Rural 78.3 602 Glenarm 1,283 0.7 0.0 0.7 5 Rural 42.9 603 Carncastle 2,027 2.5 0.1 2.6 10 Mixed 27.6 604 Blackcave 1,128 2.5 0.2 2.6 4 Urban 21.7 605 Harbour 1,200 2.4 0.4 2.8 7 Urban 18.1 606 Central 1,330 4.1 0.2 4.2 3 Urban 27.9 607 Town Parks 1,087 2.4 -0.1 2.3 5 Urban 36.7 608 Gardenmore 1,473 2.9 -0.2 2.7 8 Urban 34.1 609 Craigy Hill 1,123 1.4 0.0 1.4 2 Urban 29.2 610 Ballyloran 727 2.1 -0.3 1.8 2 Urban 27.1

Page 96 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B4.1 Continuous registration: Net changes by Electoral Ward Register Net change: Deprivation Area Catholic share June ‘07 Dec '06 - Mar Mar '07 - June Dec '06 - June Decile of population '07 '07 '07 % % % % % 611 Antiville 892 2.4 0.3 2.8 3 Urban 23.1 612 Kilwaughter 3,039 4.6 0.3 4.9 9 Mixed 13.5 613 Glynn 1,372 2.7 -0.1 2.6 8 Mixed 5.7 614 Ballycarry 1,679 1.6 0.2 1.8 8 Rural 4.8 615 Island Magee 1,715 1.7 0.0 1.7 7 Rural 3.5 2108 Jordanstown 4,091 3.4 0.1 3.5 10 Urban 10.4 2109 Rostulla 2,156 2.8 -0.1 2.7 9 Urban 33.0 2110 Monkstown 1,972 3.7 0.4 4.1 2 Urban 6.0 2115 Cloughfern 1,977 2.1 -0.2 2.0 6 Urban 6.1 2201 Blackhead 1,398 1.3 0.4 1.7 8 Rural 13.8 2202 Whitehead 1,445 2.7 -0.3 2.4 9 Rural 16.0 2203 Eden 3,135 2.7 0.0 2.7 9 Mixed 6.4 2204 Boneybefore 1,302 2.2 -0.7 1.5 10 Urban 9.5 2205 Bluefield 1,733 2.2 0.0 2.2 10 Urban 7.0 2206 Victoria 1,661 4.3 0.1 4.5 8 Urban 6.6 2207 Milebush 1,030 2.6 -0.2 2.4 9 Urban 6.2 2208 Love Lane 984 2.5 -0.3 2.2 2 Urban 7.3 2209 Sunnylands 1,025 3.5 -0.1 3.4 3 Urban 7.8 2210 Northland 815 3.6 0.0 3.6 1 Urban 7.0 2211 Clipperstown 1,200 3.6 -0.4 3.2 4 Urban 4.4 2212 Killycrot 1,677 4.0 0.3 4.3 4 Urban 13.8 2213 Woodburn 1,646 3.9 0.2 4.1 9 Mixed 5.2 2214 Burleigh Hill 2,212 2.9 -0.4 2.5 9 Urban 7.8

Page 97 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B4.1 Continuous registration: Net changes by Electoral Ward Register Net change: Deprivation Area Catholic share June ‘07 Dec '06 - Mar Mar '07 - June Dec '06 - June Decile of population '07 '07 '07 % % % % % 2215 Greenisland 1,776 3.7 -0.2 3.5 9 Mixed 11.8 2216 Gortalee 938 4.0 0.6 4.7 3 Urban 7.1 2217 Knockagh 1,637 1.9 0.4 2.2 10 Urban 10.2 East Londonderry 56,832 3.1 0.1 3.2 201 Magilligan 1,287 2.5 0.3 2.8 4 Rural 55.9 202 Aghanloo 2,503 3.4 -0.0 3.4 8 Mixed 40.9 203 Forest 1,487 5.2 0.7 6.0 7 Mixed 50.8 204 Upper Glenshane 1,488 4.1 0.1 4.2 5 Rural 86.8 205 Feeny 1,363 3.3 0.4 3.7 3 Rural 89.7 206 Dungiven 1,275 2.3 0.4 2.7 4 Rural 95.6 207 The Highlands 1,199 2.7 0.5 3.2 2 Rural 44.0 208 Glack 1,385 3.6 0.3 3.9 5 Rural 62.6 209 Gresteel 1,733 5.4 0.1 5.5 5 Rural 59.2 210 Ballykelly 1,183 4.6 0.1 4.7 5 Rural 51.2 211 Roeside 912 3.8 0.0 3.8 4 Urban 32.9 212 Rathbrady 1,202 3.1 0.3 3.4 8 Urban 31.4 213 Enagh 1,850 3.2 0.2 3.5 4 Urban 36.4 214 Coolessan 942 2.3 0.1 2.4 1 Urban 62.3 215 Greystone 936 3.0 0.1 3.1 1 Urban 49.4 301 Kilrea 1,696 3.3 -0.1 3.2 6 Rural 65.3 302 Agivey 1,669 3.4 0.2 3.6 8 Rural 24.0 303 Dundooan 1,765 3.2 -0.2 3.0 9 Mixed 19.0 304 Knocklynn 2,414 3.3 0.2 3.6 10 Urban 16.0

Page 98 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B4.1 Continuous registration: Net changes by Electoral Ward Register Net change: Deprivation Area Catholic share June ‘07 Dec '06 - Mar Mar '07 - June Dec '06 - June Decile of population '07 '07 '07 % % % % % 305 Dunluce 1,373 2.7 -0.3 2.4 8 Rural 4.8 306 Royal Portrush 1,362 3.4 -0.1 3.3 4 Urban 27.9 307 Hopefield 2,313 2.3 0.0 2.3 8 Urban 20.3 308 Atlantic 1,435 3.8 0.3 4.1 6 Urban 30.2 309 Portstewart 1,122 3.5 0.6 4.2 5 Urban 38.3 310 Strand 1,569 4.5 -0.4 4.1 10 Urban 43.8 311 University 1,387 3.5 -0.2 3.3 7 Urban 23.6 312 Ballysally 1,327 3.3 -0.2 3.0 2 Urban 16.6 313 Central 1,086 4.9 -0.1 4.8 2 Urban 22.5 314 Cross Glebe 1,438 3.2 0.1 3.3 2 Urban 24.8 315 Mount Sandel 1,208 2.8 0.1 2.9 9 Urban 26.0 316 The Cuts 2,626 1.3 -0.1 1.2 9 Urban 19.5 317 Churchland 1,303 3.7 0.0 3.7 2 Urban 38.1 318 Waterside 2,001 2.1 0.1 2.2 10 Urban 25.4 319 Castlerock 2,010 1.8 0.2 2.0 7 Rural 18.0 320 Macosquin 1,619 1.8 -0.3 1.5 7 Rural 9.7 321 Ringsend 1,612 2.7 -0.1 2.6 7 Rural 51.7 322 Garvagh 1,752 2.1 0.2 2.3 5 Rural 45.6 Fermanagh & South Tyrone 66,728 4.1 0.1 4.2 1201 Rosslea 1,772 5.6 0.2 5.8 2 Rural 84.5 1202 Newtownbutler 1,836 8.0 0.2 8.1 2 Rural 77.4 1203 Donagh 1,758 7.1 -0.1 7.0 5 Rural 77.1 1204 Lisnaskea 1,874 7.3 0.0 7.3 3 Rural 74.7

Page 99 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B4.1 Continuous registration: Net changes by Electoral Ward Register Net change: Deprivation Area Catholic share June ‘07 Dec '06 - Mar Mar '07 - June Dec '06 - June Decile of population '07 '07 '07 % % % % % 1205 Brookeborough 1,769 3.7 -0.1 3.6 6 Rural 42.2 1206 Maguires Bridge 2,076 3.0 0.5 3.5 7 Rural 38.8 1207 Tempo 1,918 1.3 0.1 1.4 6 Rural 51.5 1208 Lisbellaw 1,908 1.8 0.2 1.9 8 Rural 25.4 1209 Ballinamallard 1,848 3.0 -0.1 2.9 9 Rural 18.4 1210 Irvinestown 1,521 2.3 0.3 2.6 3 Rural 74.3 1211 Lisnarrick 1,396 2.8 0.1 2.9 8 Rural 27.1 1212 Kesh Ederney and Lack 2,489 2.9 0.1 3.0 4 Rural 37.4 1213 Belleek and Boa 1,744 6.3 0.1 6.5 3 Rural 71.8 1214 Belcoo and Garrison 1,878 5.8 0.3 6.1 4 Rural 88.7 1215 Derrygonnelly 1,958 3.7 -0.1 3.6 6 Rural 61.0 1216 Boho Cleenish and Letterbre 2,031 4.0 0.0 4.0 6 Rural 54.7 1217 Florence Court and Kinawley 1,929 3.5 0.1 3.5 6 Rural 66.8 1218 Derrylin 1,851 2.2 0.1 2.2 5 Rural 81.3 1219 Rossorry 1,733 5.5 0.0 5.5 8 Urban 52.9 1220 Portora 1,810 3.7 0.2 3.9 4 Urban 53.9 1221 Devenish 1,205 5.1 -0.5 4.6 1 Urban 87.9 1222 Erne 1,598 4.5 0.3 4.7 5 Urban 73.6 1223 Castlecoole 2,477 3.4 0.3 3.7 8 Urban 48.8 1301 Fivemiletown 1,455 3.9 0.2 4.2 5 Rural 21.4 1302 Clogher 1,484 1.4 0.0 1.4 4 Rural 60.5 1303 Augher 1,565 5.0 0.4 5.4 6 Rural 58.0 1304 Ballygawley 1,671 4.4 0.3 4.7 4 Rural 72.8

Page 100 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B4.1 Continuous registration: Net changes by Electoral Ward Register Net change: Deprivation Area Catholic share June ‘07 Dec '06 - Mar Mar '07 - June Dec '06 - June Decile of population '07 '07 '07 % % % % % 1305 Castlecaulfield 1,751 4.4 0.1 4.5 7 Mixed 55.9 1312 Killyman 1,722 2.8 0.1 2.9 7 Rural 15.2 1313 Moy 1,731 1.7 0.3 2.0 8 Rural 57.4 1314 Benburb 1,662 4.5 0.1 4.6 6 Rural 53.4 1315 Caledon 1,656 3.9 -0.1 3.8 5 Rural 46.0 1316 Aughnacloy 1,612 4.9 0.1 5.0 4 Rural 28.6 1317 Mullaghmore 1,201 5.8 0.5 6.3 3 Urban 88.1 1318 Ballysaggart 1,345 6.8 0.1 7.0 1 Urban 82.8 1319 Moygashel 1,427 2.5 0.1 2.7 8 Urban 17.4 1320 Coolhill 1,297 4.1 -0.2 3.9 9 Urban 21.4 1321 Killymeal 1,597 3.8 -0.1 3.8 8 Mixed 42.0 1322 Drumglass 1,173 6.1 0.1 6.2 3 Mixed 85.0 Foyle 66,032 5.3 0.3 5.6 101 Banagher 2,228 4.4 -0.0 4.3 4 Rural 69.9 102 Claudy 2,292 3.2 0.3 3.4 5 Rural 71.5 103 Eglinton 2,747 3.7 -0.1 3.6 7 Rural 46.8 104 Holly Mount 2,643 5.7 0.2 5.8 4 Mixed 72.9 105 New Buildings 2,387 4.4 0.5 4.9 5 Urban 35.5 106 Enagh 2,769 5.4 0.7 6.2 3 Mixed 62.8 107 Caw 1,583 2.8 0.4 3.2 3 Urban 16.8 108 Kilfennan 2,096 3.2 -0.0 3.2 8 Urban 31.0 109 Altnagelvin 2,826 4.6 -0.0 4.6 4 Urban 38.0 110 Lisnagelvin 2,160 1.3 0.0 1.4 5 Urban 18.5

Page 101 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B4.1 Continuous registration: Net changes by Electoral Ward Register Net change: Deprivation Area Catholic share June ‘07 Dec '06 - Mar Mar '07 - June Dec '06 - June Decile of population '07 '07 '07 % % % % % 111 Clondermot 2,256 4.9 0.4 5.3 2 Urban 68.0 112 Victoria 1,826 4.2 -0.2 4.0 1 Urban 68.2 113 Ebrington 1,590 4.1 -0.1 4.0 2 Urban 32.9 114 Crevagh 3,074 9.7 0.8 10.6 1 Mixed 91.4 115 Springtown 2,187 5.1 0.7 5.9 3 Urban 96.9 116 Creggan South 1,608 4.4 0.0 4.4 1 Urban 98.8 117 Brandywell 1,637 8.0 0.4 8.5 1 Urban 98.9 118 The Diamond 1,477 5.7 0.3 6.0 1 Urban 81.0 119 Westland 1,474 7.7 0.1 7.7 1 Urban 97.8 120 Beechwood 1,641 3.7 0.0 3.7 1 Urban 97.5 121 Creggan Central 1,752 10.9 -0.2 10.7 1 Urban 98.7 122 Rosemount 1,528 7.0 0.0 7.0 1 Urban 92.7 123 Foyle Springs 2,562 7.7 0.2 7.9 4 Urban 94.6 124 Strand 1,671 5.4 1.5 7.0 1 Urban 90.9 125 Pennyburn 1,913 5.2 0.4 5.6 6 Urban 96.0 126 Carn Hill 1,714 7.5 0.1 7.6 1 Urban 98.3 127 Shantallow West 3,513 6.2 0.7 6.9 1 Urban 97.0 128 Shantallow East 1,579 4.2 0.3 4.6 1 Urban 98.3 129 Ballynashallog 2,555 3.8 -0.0 3.7 4 Urban 95.5 130 Culmore 4,744 6.1 0.3 6.3 4 Urban 94.1 Lagan Valley 71,015 3.7 0.0 3.8 1707 Gransha 2,047 3.4 0.0 3.4 8 Rural 13.0 1708 Dromore South 2,456 2.9 0.5 3.5 9 Mixed 11.1

Page 102 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B4.1 Continuous registration: Net changes by Electoral Ward Register Net change: Deprivation Area Catholic share June ‘07 Dec '06 - Mar Mar '07 - June Dec '06 - June Decile of population '07 '07 '07 % % % % % 1709 Dromore North 1,657 2.0 -0.2 1.8 8 Mixed 17.8 1710 Quilly 1,749 2.9 0.0 2.9 9 Rural 12.9 1901 Glenavy 3,329 6.0 0.0 6.0 9 Rural 54.9 1902 Ballinderry 2,999 3.5 0.1 3.6 9 Rural 16.0 1903 Moira 3,177 3.3 0.1 3.4 9 Rural 13.6 1904 Maghaberry 2,945 3.3 0.1 3.4 9 Rural 13.2 1905 Maze 2,533 1.8 -0.2 1.6 9 Rural 6.3 1906 Hillsborough 2,696 2.2 -0.0 2.2 10 Rural 5.0 1907 Dromara 3,089 2.1 -0.2 1.9 9 Rural 9.2 1908 Ballymacbrennan 2,322 3.5 -0.1 3.4 10 Rural 5.6 1909 Drumbo 2,322 2.3 0.0 2.4 10 Rural 10.8 1910 Hillhall 1,807 2.0 -0.3 1.6 5 Mixed 5.0 1911 Blaris 2,216 3.6 0.0 3.6 9 Mixed 9.7 1912 Knockmore 2,339 2.3 0.4 2.8 6 Urban 18.4 1913 Old Warren 1,401 2.8 -0.2 2.6 1 Urban 25.0 1914 Lagan Valley 1,761 2.4 -0.3 2.1 4 Urban 12.9 1915 Tonagh 1,540 3.8 0.3 4.1 3 Urban 35.4 1916 Ballymacoss 3,719 3.9 0.1 4.1 8 Mixed 9.1 1917 Ballymacash 2,725 2.8 0.1 2.9 10 Urban 15.5 1918 Lisnagarvey 1,949 1.7 -0.1 1.6 10 Urban 13.2 1919 Wallace Park 1,965 2.8 0.0 2.8 10 Urban 16.7 1920 Magheralave 1,972 2.8 0.0 2.8 10 Urban 23.1 1921 Harmony Hill 2,077 3.0 0.0 3.0 10 Urban 21.5

Page 103 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B4.1 Continuous registration: Net changes by Electoral Ward Register Net change: Deprivation Area Catholic share June ‘07 Dec '06 - Mar Mar '07 - June Dec '06 - June Decile of population '07 '07 '07 % % % % % 1922 Hilden 1,716 3.6 -0.1 3.5 4 Urban 22.0 1923 Lambeg 1,748 3.3 0.0 3.3 6 Mixed 5.4 1924 Derryaghy 4,551 12.5 0.3 12.8 5 Urban 60.8 1925 Seymour Hill 1,643 1.5 -0.1 1.5 7 Urban 6.2 1926 Dunmurry 2,565 8.1 0.4 8.5 8 Urban 78.3 Mid Ulster 62,165 4.6 0.1 4.7 801 Swatragh 2,087 4.4 -0.1 4.3 7 Rural 88.7 802 Upperlands 1,532 2.1 0.1 2.2 5 Rural 25.5 803 Valley 1,719 3.6 -0.1 3.6 6 Rural 69.6 804 Lower Glenshane 2,077 4.5 0.2 4.7 7 Rural 93.2 805 Maghera 1,700 5.9 0.5 6.4 3 Rural 77.6 806 Gulladuff 1,838 4.5 0.4 4.9 7 Rural 62.9 807 Tobermore 1,694 2.2 0.1 2.3 6 Rural 34.2 808 Knockcloghrim 1,736 1.8 0.0 1.8 9 Mixed 48.6 809 Bellaghy 1,773 7.7 -0.1 7.7 6 Rural 82.0 810 Castledawson 1,925 3.5 -0.1 3.4 7 Rural 48.0 811 Draperstown 1,956 4.0 0.0 4.0 6 Rural 95.3 812 Lecumpher 1,793 2.7 -0.2 2.5 8 Rural 46.6 813 Ballymaguigan 1,729 4.0 0.2 4.2 8 Rural 75.5 814 Town Parks West 1,511 3.4 0.1 3.5 8 Urban 49.0 815 Glebe 1,815 5.8 0.0 5.8 7 Urban 65.3 816 Town Parks East 1,718 4.8 0.0 4.8 7 Urban 50.6 901 Dunnamore 1,446 5.9 -0.1 5.8 2 Rural 94.4

Page 104 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B4.1 Continuous registration: Net changes by Electoral Ward Register Net change: Deprivation Area Catholic share June ‘07 Dec '06 - Mar Mar '07 - June Dec '06 - June Decile of population '07 '07 '07 % % % % % 902 Pomeroy 1,477 2.9 -0.1 2.9 3 Rural 82.2 903 Lissan 1,389 10.8 0.0 10.8 7 Rural 37.4 904 Oaklands 1,409 4.6 0.1 4.8 7 Rural 41.3 905 Sandholes 1,237 4.3 0.1 4.4 8 Rural 13.8 906 Moneymore 1,519 3.6 0.0 3.6 6 Rural 38.1 907 Coagh 1,382 4.0 0.4 4.5 4 Rural 38.4 908 Stewartstown 1,231 5.0 0.2 5.2 3 Rural 40.6 909 The Loop 1,762 5.0 -0.1 4.9 6 Rural 64.6 910 Ardboe 1,715 4.8 0.1 5.0 2 Rural 98.1 911 Killycolpy 1,662 5.5 0.2 5.7 3 Rural 86.2 912 Oldtown 1,476 5.7 -0.1 5.6 4 Urban 21.0 913 Newbuildings 1,298 6.2 0.4 6.7 5 Urban 33.1 914 Tullagh 1,458 3.7 -0.1 3.6 7 Urban 74.8 915 Gortalowry 1,479 6.2 0.0 6.2 6 Urban 77.4 916 Killymoon 1,293 5.2 0.5 5.7 4 Urban 48.8 1306 Altmore 1,720 6.1 0.2 6.2 3 Rural 80.3 1307 Donaghmore 1,543 4.8 0.1 4.8 6 Rural 70.4 1308 Coalisland West and Newmill 1,690 3.8 0.1 3.9 6 Mixed 73.0 1309 Coalisland North 1,973 5.4 0.2 5.6 4 Mixed 97.1 1310 Coalisland South 1,554 3.2 -0.2 3.0 1 Urban 93.6 1311 Washing Bay 1,849 6.7 0.2 6.9 4 Rural 96.3 Newry & Armagh 71,920 4.4 0.1 4.5 1501 Charlemont 1,753 4.3 0.1 4.3 5 Rural 67.5

Page 105 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B4.1 Continuous registration: Net changes by Electoral Ward Register Net change: Deprivation Area Catholic share June ‘07 Dec '06 - Mar Mar '07 - June Dec '06 - June Decile of population '07 '07 '07 % % % % % 1502 Loughgall 1,936 1.5 0.1 1.6 7 Rural 36.8 1503 Hockley 1,812 2.3 0.1 2.4 9 Rural 19.3 1504 Ballymartrim 1,822 3.9 0.0 3.9 6 Rural 67.1 1505 Killylea 1,794 2.9 -0.1 2.8 5 Rural 52.3 1506 Milford 1,817 4.1 0.1 4.2 6 Rural 63.2 1507 Derrynoose 2,154 5.4 0.1 5.5 5 Rural 84.3 1508 Keady 1,338 5.1 0.0 5.1 2 Rural 96.5 1509 Carrigatuke 1,578 7.4 0.0 7.4 4 Rural 72.6 1510 Killeen 1,875 3.6 0.0 3.6 6 Mixed 46.0 1511 Markethill 1,795 3.0 0.1 3.0 5 Rural 16.3 1512 Poyntz Pass 1,719 3.4 0.5 3.9 6 Rural 26.6 1513 Tandragee 1,899 2.0 -0.3 1.8 9 Rural 12.2 1514 Laurelvale 2,065 2.2 0.0 2.2 9 Rural 9.9 1515 Rich Hill 1,911 2.9 0.1 3.0 8 Rural 3.9 1516 Hamiltonsbawn 2,250 2.1 0.2 2.3 8 Rural 6.6 1517 Downs 1,683 7.5 0.5 8.0 3 Urban 95.8 1518 Callan Bridge 1,642 3.1 -0.2 2.9 2 Urban 88.6 1519 Abbey Park 1,539 4.9 0.1 5.1 3 Urban 92.2 1520 Observatory 1,602 2.5 0.3 2.8 6 Urban 54.0 1521 The Mall 1,224 2.0 -0.1 1.9 7 Urban 17.7 1522 Demesne 1,832 3.8 0.1 3.9 8 Urban 51.3 1614 Windsor Hill 1,790 2.6 -0.1 2.5 5 Urban 72.0 1615 St Patrick's 2,072 3.7 -0.3 3.4 3 Mixed 92.7

Page 106 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B4.1 Continuous registration: Net changes by Electoral Ward Register Net change: Deprivation Area Catholic share June ‘07 Dec '06 - Mar Mar '07 - June Dec '06 - June Decile of population '07 '07 '07 % % % % % 1616 St Mary's 1,469 4.8 0.1 4.9 2 Urban 95.4 1617 Drumgullion 1,956 5.4 0.0 5.4 2 Urban 90.3 1618 Ballybot 1,261 4.7 -0.1 4.6 1 Urban 96.7 1619 Daisy hill 1,822 6.3 0.2 6.5 2 Urban 96.7 1620 Drumalane 1,910 7.3 0.2 7.5 4 Urban 96.5 1621 Derrymore 1,819 5.5 0.5 6.1 2 Mixed 90.3 1622 Bessbrook 1,572 2.5 0.1 2.6 2 Mixed 63.9 1623 Tullyhappy 2,034 5.1 -0.0 5.0 5 Rural 52.6 1624 Camlough 2,271 6.9 0.2 7.2 2 Rural 97.6 1625 Newtownhamilton 1,861 3.3 0.2 3.6 2 Rural 65.5 1626 Creggan 2,224 6.5 0.2 6.8 2 Rural 96.0 1627 Crossmaglen 1,945 7.9 -0.1 7.8 1 Rural 98.7 1628 Silver Bridge 2,346 5.3 0.6 5.9 3 Rural 98.3 1629 Forkhill 2,590 8.6 0.1 8.7 3 Rural 98.5 1630 Fathom 1,938 3.9 0.3 4.2 5 Mixed 98.3 North Antrim 73,570 3.8 0.0 3.8 401 Benvardin 1,353 2.6 0.5 3.1 4 Rural 5.4 402 Seacon 1,661 3.1 -0.4 2.7 7 Mixed 11.7 403 Dervock 1,046 1.9 0.1 1.9 7 Rural 7.2 404 Stranocum 1,107 2.1 0.5 2.7 5 Rural 16.9 405 Ballyhoe and Corkey 1,254 10.9 0.1 11.0 4 Rural 92.6 406 Knockaholet 1,087 2.6 0.2 2.8 5 Rural 35.1 407 Route 1,079 2.7 0.0 2.7 4 Urban 24.4

Page 107 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B4.1 Continuous registration: Net changes by Electoral Ward Register Net change: Deprivation Area Catholic share June ‘07 Dec '06 - Mar Mar '07 - June Dec '06 - June Decile of population '07 '07 '07 % % % % % 408 Glebe 1,276 2.1 -0.9 1.3 9 Urban 15.4 409 Newhill 1,465 2.4 -0.1 2.3 3 Urban 11.9 410 Carnany 1,315 1.7 0.1 1.8 5 Urban 17.4 411 Fairhill 1,280 1.8 -0.4 1.4 7 Urban 17.7 412 The Vow 1,285 3.2 0.2 3.4 8 Rural 30.2 413 Killoquin Lower 1,163 3.6 0.1 3.7 6 Rural 38.0 414 Dunloy 1,301 11.1 -0.1 11.0 6 Rural 85.0 415 Clogh Mills 1,311 7.0 0.1 7.1 6 Rural 41.3 416 Killoquin Upper 1,106 3.4 -0.1 3.3 5 Rural 56.2 501 Bushmills 483 4.1 -0.2 3.9 2 Rural 3.4 502 Ballylough 717 4.3 -0.6 3.8 2 Rural 1.6 503 Dunseverick 561 3.3 0.2 3.5 4 Rural 7.2 504 Carnmoon 631 3.1 0.5 3.6 4 Rural 2.5 505 Kinbane 562 1.4 -0.7 0.7 3 Rural 36.3 506 Moss-side and Moyarget 597 2.9 -0.3 2.6 2 Rural 9.7 507 Armoy 654 4.1 -0.2 4.0 2 Rural 44.6 508 Dalriada 980 6.4 -0.7 5.6 5 Urban 82.7 509 Knocklayd 1,030 3.8 0.4 4.3 3 Urban 75.7 510 Glentaisie 804 2.8 0.8 3.6 3 Urban 81.4 511 Bonamargy and Rathlin 643 2.5 -0.2 2.4 6 Urban 66.9 512 Glenshesk 681 4.3 0.4 4.8 6 Rural 92.9 513 Glendun 765 3.2 0.0 3.2 4 Rural 96.5 514 Glenaan 864 4.7 0.0 4.7 4 Rural 97.7

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Table B4.1 Continuous registration: Net changes by Electoral Ward Register Net change: Deprivation Area Catholic share June ‘07 Dec '06 - Mar Mar '07 - June Dec '06 - June Decile of population '07 '07 '07 % % % % % 515 Glenariff 1,089 5.0 -0.3 4.7 4 Rural 95.9 701 Glenravel 2,192 6.5 0.4 6.9 7 Rural 60.5 702 Slemish 1,675 3.4 0.1 3.5 8 Rural 13.7 703 Glenwhirry 1,972 4.5 0.3 4.7 8 Rural 12.0 704 Kells 2,165 2.8 -0.1 2.8 8 Rural 2.7 705 Grange 2,252 4.4 0.1 4.5 8 Rural 42.2 706 Ahoghill 2,570 3.6 0.1 3.8 9 Rural 7.6 707 Portglenone 2,087 5.7 0.1 5.8 7 Rural 35.0 708 Dunminning 1,732 3.4 -0.1 3.3 8 Rural 12.8 709 Craigywarren 1,909 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 9 Rural 4.6 710 Cullybackey 1,994 3.4 -0.1 3.3 6 Rural 1.1 711 Broughshane 2,213 5.7 0.3 6.0 9 Rural 5.2 712 Galgorm 2,338 1.6 0.0 1.6 10 Mixed 6.4 713 Academy 1,644 2.3 0.2 2.6 10 Urban 12.6 714 Ballyloughan 1,858 2.3 -0.2 2.0 10 Urban 14.9 715 Park 1,372 3.6 0.1 3.8 9 Urban 28.4 716 Dunclug 1,193 8.0 0.1 8.1 3 Urban 48.9 717 Fair Green 1,032 6.1 -0.1 6.0 2 Urban 53.1 718 Summerfield 1,831 7.3 -0.2 7.1 9 Urban 61.3 719 Castle Demesne 1,392 1.4 -0.6 0.9 3 Urban 35.9 720 Ardeevin 2,252 3.5 0.2 3.7 10 Urban 14.6 721 Harryville 1,264 1.3 -0.1 1.2 4 Urban 4.3 722 Ballee 1,220 2.5 0.2 2.7 2 Urban 8.4

Page 109 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B4.1 Continuous registration: Net changes by Electoral Ward Register Net change: Deprivation Area Catholic share June ‘07 Dec '06 - Mar Mar '07 - June Dec '06 - June Decile of population '07 '07 '07 % % % % % 723 Moat 1,189 1.9 0.1 2.0 2 Urban 7.8 724 Ballykeel 1,074 6.3 0.3 6.5 2 Urban 6.8 North Down 58,094 2.9 0.0 3.0 2301 Groomsport 2,320 1.4 -0.3 1.1 10 Mixed 7.4 2302 Churchill 1,943 3.7 -0.2 3.5 10 Urban 7.9 2303 Ballyholme 1,751 1.6 0.3 1.9 10 Urban 10.0 2304 Broadway 2,185 2.1 -0.1 2.1 10 Urban 9.0 2305 Ballymaconnell 2,009 3.2 0.1 3.3 10 Urban 10.5 2306 Ballymagee 2,447 3.4 0.0 3.4 10 Urban 9.2 2307 Ballycrochan 3,330 4.0 0.5 4.5 10 Urban 9.0 2308 Harbour 1,621 5.5 0.3 5.8 5 Urban 16.7 2309 Bangor Castle 1,830 2.2 0.0 2.2 6 Urban 9.3 2310 Bloomfield 2,340 3.7 0.3 4.0 6 Urban 7.7 2311 Whitehill 1,541 3.1 -0.7 2.3 5 Urban 12.1 2312 Conlig 3,364 2.1 0.1 2.2 6 Urban 6.9 2313 Princetown 1,988 1.6 -0.3 1.3 10 Urban 15.5 2314 Bryansburn 1,926 0.8 0.1 0.9 10 Urban 27.9 2315 Silverstream 1,806 2.6 -0.1 2.5 8 Urban 12.4 2316 Rathgael 1,589 2.6 0.3 2.9 9 Urban 9.9 2317 Clandeboye 2,594 3.9 0.2 4.1 8 Urban 8.9 2318 Dufferin 1,618 3.7 -0.1 3.6 3 Urban 6.3 2319 Springhill 2,091 3.6 -0.1 3.5 10 Urban 10.9 2320 Crawfordsburn 2,082 3.0 0.0 3.0 10 Urban 9.3

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Table B4.1 Continuous registration: Net changes by Electoral Ward Register Net change: Deprivation Area Catholic share June ‘07 Dec '06 - Mar Mar '07 - June Dec '06 - June Decile of population '07 '07 '07 % % % % % 2321 Craigavad 1,769 2.7 0.1 2.8 10 Mixed 13.1 2322 Cultra 1,731 3.6 -0.1 3.5 10 Mixed 19.0 2323 Holywood Priory 1,842 4.4 0.1 4.5 10 Urban 22.3 2324 Holywood Demesne 1,910 2.0 0.1 2.1 9 Urban 28.3 2325 Loughview 1,547 3.4 0.1 3.5 7 Urban 21.5 2416 Donaghadee North 2,267 2.2 0.1 2.3 9 Mixed 5.6 2417 Donaghadee South 2,024 2.0 -0.4 1.6 6 Urban 4.7 2418 Millisle 2,629 4.0 0.5 4.4 7 Mixed 3.4 South Antrim 66,434 3.7 0.1 3.8 2001 Toome 1,723 8.0 0.3 8.4 4 Rural 93.7 2002 Drumanaway 1,396 2.7 0.2 2.9 6 Mixed 14.0 2003 Cranfield 1,725 4.1 0.1 4.2 7 Mixed 58.4 2004 Randalstown 2,051 3.5 -0.1 3.4 7 Mixed 70.1 2005 Shilvodan 1,508 4.4 -0.3 4.1 9 Rural 36.4 2006 Templepatrick 1,701 2.4 0.4 2.7 10 Rural 12.0 2007 Farranshane 1,051 5.1 0.2 5.3 1 Urban 39.9 2008 Springfarm 1,781 4.3 0.5 4.8 3 Urban 43.7 2009 Massereene 2,907 3.2 0.1 3.3 9 Urban 38.8 2010 Balloo 1,126 4.1 0.1 4.2 4 Urban 33.5 2011 Fountain Hill 1,316 3.5 -0.1 3.5 4 Urban 23.6 2012 Steeple 1,097 4.6 -0.4 4.2 3 Urban 17.2 2013 Stiles 1,251 3.7 0.1 3.8 4 Urban 40.6 2014 Greystone 1,299 3.9 -0.2 3.8 5 Urban 39.5

Page 111 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B4.1 Continuous registration: Net changes by Electoral Ward Register Net change: Deprivation Area Catholic share June ‘07 Dec '06 - Mar Mar '07 - June Dec '06 - June Decile of population '07 '07 '07 % % % % % 2015 Parkgate 1,717 6.6 0.5 7.1 9 Rural 4.1 2016 Ballycraigy 1,209 0.7 -0.4 0.2 3 Urban 5.3 2017 Clady 1,949 4.9 0.3 5.1 9 Rural 24.7 2018 Aldergrove 2,136 4.3 0.2 4.6 7 Mixed 23.1 2019 Crumlin 2,441 6.4 0.5 6.9 7 Rural 76.9 2101 Mallusk 4,527 4.8 0.4 5.3 10 Mixed 33.1 2102 Doagh 2,418 2.8 0.0 2.8 9 Rural 1.5 2103 Ballyclare North 2,418 2.4 -0.4 1.9 7 Urban 4.3 2104 Ballyclare South 2,177 2.9 0.0 2.9 6 Urban 5.5 2105 Ballynure 2,199 2.8 -0.1 2.7 10 Rural 2.9 2106 Ballyrobert 2,918 2.1 -0.0 2.1 10 Mixed 3.8 2107 Hawthorne 1,553 2.3 0.2 2.5 7 Urban 6.7 2111 Ballyduff 1,831 3.2 0.3 3.4 8 Urban 9.2 2112 Carnmoney 1,793 1.9 0.2 2.2 6 Urban 13.0 2113 Mossley 1,790 3.1 -0.2 2.9 4 Urban 7.5 2114 Burnthill 1,821 3.6 0.2 3.8 9 Urban 19.1 2116 Ballyhenry 2,077 2.1 -0.2 1.9 8 Urban 25.1 2117 Glengormley 1,718 3.6 0.6 4.2 7 Urban 40.3 2118 Glebe 2,137 4.7 -0.2 4.5 9 Urban 59.7 2119 Hightown 1,564 2.7 0.3 3.0 7 Urban 26.5 2120 Collinbridge 2,109 5.0 0.1 5.2 9 Urban 73.8 South Down 72,919 4.1 0.1 4.2 1601 Annalong 2,135 2.1 0.0 2.2 4 Rural 42.6

Page 112 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B4.1 Continuous registration: Net changes by Electoral Ward Register Net change: Deprivation Area Catholic share June ‘07 Dec '06 - Mar Mar '07 - June Dec '06 - June Decile of population '07 '07 '07 % % % % % 1602 Binnian 2,028 3.2 0.3 3.5 6 Mixed 48.3 1603 Kilkeel Central 2,287 2.7 -0.1 2.6 5 Urban 24.6 1604 Kilkeel South 1,890 4.4 0.0 4.4 3 Urban 59.0 1605 Lisnacree 1,903 2.6 0.1 2.6 4 Rural 63.5 1606 Rostrevor 1,955 6.2 0.3 6.5 5 Rural 90.1 1607 Seaview 1,866 5.3 0.4 5.8 5 Urban 88.8 1608 Clonallan 2,514 5.4 0.2 5.6 5 Urban 90.2 1609 Derryleckagh 2,733 3.8 0.6 4.4 7 Mixed 88.8 1610 Burren and Kilbroney 2,420 5.7 0.2 6.0 7 Rural 94.6 1611 Spelga 1,994 3.4 0.1 3.5 5 Rural 84.6 1612 Mayobridge 2,220 6.2 0.0 6.2 5 Rural 85.5 1613 Donaghmore 2,142 3.3 0.2 3.5 6 Rural 62.4 1704 Bannside 1,769 1.7 0.0 1.7 9 Rural 37.9 1705 Katesbridge 1,759 1.3 0.1 1.3 7 Rural 29.3 1706 Ballyward 1,694 4.3 0.1 4.4 6 Rural 58.1 1711 Rathfriland 1,741 3.7 -0.2 3.6 4 Rural 32.3 1802 Kilmore 2,215 4.0 0.1 4.1 9 Rural 22.3 1803 Ballynahinch East 1,546 4.1 0.7 4.9 6 Urban 51.2 1804 Ballymaglave 1,882 3.6 0.2 3.9 7 Urban 14.9 1805 Drumaness 2,350 6.3 0.4 6.7 6 Rural 85.3 1808 Crossgar 2,091 3.7 0.2 3.9 9 Rural 51.9 1809 Quoile 1,703 2.9 0.2 3.1 6 Urban 71.7 1810 Audley's Acre 1,648 3.6 -0.2 3.3 8 Urban 92.0

Page 113 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B4.1 Continuous registration: Net changes by Electoral Ward Register Net change: Deprivation Area Catholic share June ‘07 Dec '06 - Mar Mar '07 - June Dec '06 - June Decile of population '07 '07 '07 % % % % % 1811 Ballymote 1,451 5.4 0.3 5.7 1 Urban 87.9 1812 Cathedral 2,007 5.6 0.0 5.6 4 Mixed 93.0 1813 Strangford 1,789 3.8 0.3 4.1 8 Rural 82.9 1814 Ardglass 1,920 5.3 0.3 5.6 4 Rural 84.2 1815 Killough 1,854 4.0 0.1 4.1 6 Rural 64.5 1816 Seaforde 2,038 3.2 0.0 3.3 7 Rural 56.1 1817 Dunmore 2,000 3.6 0.0 3.6 8 Mixed 38.7 1818 Castlewellan 2,161 4.9 0.3 5.2 5 Rural 88.2 1819 Dundrum 1,733 2.4 -0.5 1.9 5 Rural 62.4 1820 Murlough 1,469 4.6 0.1 4.7 3 Mixed 73.4 1821 Shimna 1,885 4.2 0.2 4.4 5 Urban 70.3 1822 Donard 2,071 3.8 0.2 4.0 8 Urban 63.3 1823 Tollymore 2,056 6.2 0.1 6.4 5 Rural 82.1 Strangford 67,255 2.7 -0.0 2.7 1801 Saintfield 2,162 1.6 0.0 1.6 10 Rural 22.0 1806 Derryboy 1,984 1.8 0.2 2.0 8 Rural 30.3 1807 Killyleagh 1,913 2.3 -0.2 2.1 5 Rural 37.3 2401 Killinchy 2,148 1.9 -0.3 1.6 9 Rural 4.4 2402 Ballygowan 2,403 2.8 0.0 2.8 9 Rural 12.3 2403 Lisbane 2,146 3.6 -0.3 3.3 10 Mixed 3.5 2404 Comber West 2,242 3.0 -0.3 2.7 10 Mixed 3.7 2405 Comber East 1,987 2.6 -0.2 2.4 7 Urban 3.7 2406 Comber North 1,795 2.3 0.0 2.3 7 Urban 3.9

Page 114 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B4.1 Continuous registration: Net changes by Electoral Ward Register Net change: Deprivation Area Catholic share June ‘07 Dec '06 - Mar Mar '07 - June Dec '06 - June Decile of population '07 '07 '07 % % % % % 2407 Scrabo 1,645 3.9 0.0 3.9 2 Urban 3.1 2408 Ballyrainey 1,680 1.8 -0.3 1.5 4 Mixed 10.3 2409 Bradshaw's Brae 2,235 2.5 0.1 2.6 10 Mixed 6.5 2410 Glen 1,740 2.9 0.6 3.4 5 Urban 10.4 2411 Whitespots 2,306 2.8 -0.0 2.7 10 Urban 10.6 2412 Movilla 3,076 3.2 0.1 3.3 10 Urban 8.5 2413 Central 1,781 2.6 -0.2 2.4 3 Urban 10.7 2414 Gregstown 2,854 3.0 -0.2 2.7 8 Urban 7.9 2415 Loughries 2,235 2.0 0.5 2.6 8 Mixed 6.9 2419 Carrowdore 2,146 3.1 -0.3 2.8 8 Rural 3.8 2420 Ballywalter 2,506 2.9 0.1 3.0 7 Rural 5.3 2421 Portavogie 3,010 3.7 0.4 4.0 5 Rural 12.4 2422 Kircubbin 2,051 4.0 -0.1 3.9 5 Rural 62.6 2423 Portaferry 2,190 2.0 -0.2 1.8 5 Rural 85.3 2501 Dundonald 2,168 3.2 0.1 3.3 10 Urban 5.2 2502 Carrowreagh 2,471 2.6 0.2 2.8 7 Urban 2.3 2503 Enler 1,493 3.2 0.0 3.2 2 Urban 0.9 2504 Graham's Bridge 1,672 2.1 -0.2 1.8 5 Urban 2.0 2505 Ballyhanwood 2,304 2.2 -0.3 1.9 10 Mixed 3.3 2509 Moneyreagh 2,655 1.3 -0.1 1.3 10 Mixed 11.0 2520 Carryduff West 2,010 2.9 0.2 3.1 10 Mixed 43.1 2521 Carryduff East 2,247 3.3 0.2 3.5 10 Mixed 44.9 Upper Bann 71,684 2.9 0.2 3.0

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Table B4.1 Continuous registration: Net changes by Electoral Ward Register Net change: Deprivation Area Catholic share June ‘07 Dec '06 - Mar Mar '07 - June Dec '06 - June Decile of population '07 '07 '07 % % % % % 1401 The Birches 2,350 3.5 0.2 3.8 6 Rural 40.4 1402 Derrytrasna 3,346 2.5 0.2 2.7 8 Mixed 89.3 1403 Aghagallon 2,816 4.4 0.4 4.8 7 Mixed 85.5 1404 Magheralin 3,319 2.0 0.2 2.2 9 Rural 20.1 1405 Donaghcloney 2,398 3.2 -0.2 3.1 8 Rural 7.0 1406 Waringstown 2,718 3.3 0.1 3.4 9 Rural 6.3 1407 Bleary 2,700 2.4 0.1 2.6 9 Mixed 20.2 1408 Ballyoran 1,858 3.1 -0.1 3.1 3 Mixed 84.5 1409 Corcrain 1,687 6.9 0.2 7.1 1 Urban 86.2 1410 Ballybay 1,444 2.5 0.6 3.1 3 Urban 5.2 1411 Brownstown 2,119 2.0 0.0 2.0 8 Mixed 6.4 1412 Tavanagh 1,366 2.5 0.2 2.7 2 Urban 5.3 1413 Annagh 1,877 2.6 0.0 2.6 4 Mixed 14.5 1414 Edenderry 2,037 0.7 0.2 1.0 7 Urban 2.9 1415 Killycomain 1,703 1.7 0.4 2.0 9 Urban 3.7 1416 Kernan 3,350 2.0 0.3 2.3 7 Urban 18.7 1417 Drumgor 1,446 3.5 -0.3 3.2 2 Urban 59.0 1418 Drumgask 2,100 5.3 0.4 5.7 1 Urban 88.5 1419 Woodville 2,356 2.4 -0.0 2.4 4 Urban 96.2 1420 Drumnamoe 1,805 3.0 -0.2 2.8 2 Urban 99.0 1421 Parklake 2,167 2.5 -0.2 2.3 4 Urban 37.7 1422 Court 1,811 3.1 -0.1 3.1 1 Urban 81.1 1423 Taghnevan 2,082 2.0 0.1 2.2 2 Urban 95.7

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Table B4.1 Continuous registration: Net changes by Electoral Ward Register Net change: Deprivation Area Catholic share June ‘07 Dec '06 - Mar Mar '07 - June Dec '06 - June Decile of population '07 '07 '07 % % % % % 1424 Mourneview 1,535 3.5 0.2 3.7 4 Urban 40.8 1425 Church 1,371 0.9 0.6 1.5 2 Urban 3.0 1426 Knocknashane 2,360 1.3 -0.1 1.2 9 Urban 2.6 1701 Gilford 1,500 4.2 0.8 5.0 5 Rural 41.4 1702 Lawrencetown 1,646 3.7 0.0 3.7 7 Rural 54.0 1703 Loughbrickland 1,870 1.6 0.1 1.7 7 Rural 35.3 1712 Edenderry 1,566 3.7 0.8 4.6 4 Urban 47.8 1713 Banbridge West 1,729 2.6 0.1 2.7 8 Urban 36.2 1714 Fort 1,647 2.4 0.1 2.6 7 Urban 29.6 1715 Ballydown 2,639 4.1 0.2 4.3 10 Urban 27.0 1716 Seapatrick 1,683 2.8 0.2 3.0 9 Urban 22.7 1717 The Cut 1,283 3.4 -0.2 3.2 3 Urban 38.6 West Tyrone 59,189 5.7 0.2 5.9 1001 Glenderg 1,788 3.2 0.2 3.4 1 Rural 67.5 1002 Castlederg 1,503 4.3 0.1 4.4 1 Rural 59.0 1003 Clare 1,786 2.3 -0.3 2.0 2 Rural 28.8 1004 Newtownstewart 1,484 4.7 0.5 5.2 1 Rural 46.8 1005 Plumbridge 1,554 5.4 -0.1 5.3 2 Rural 68.7 1006 Victoria Bridge 1,569 3.7 0.1 3.8 3 Rural 47.5 1007 Finn 1,679 7.6 0.2 7.8 2 Rural 74.2 1008 Sion Mills 1,455 3.7 0.1 3.8 3 Rural 59.7 1009 Dunnamanagh 1,582 5.4 -0.1 5.3 2 Rural 47.0 1010 Slievekirk 1,528 2.8 0.0 2.8 3 Rural 19.9

Page 117 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B4.1 Continuous registration: Net changes by Electoral Ward Register Net change: Deprivation Area Catholic share June ‘07 Dec '06 - Mar Mar '07 - June Dec '06 - June Decile of population '07 '07 '07 % % % % % 1011 Artigarvan 1,840 3.7 0.3 4.0 3 Rural 43.0 1012 North 1,836 6.0 0.2 6.3 3 Urban 85.3 1013 West 2,027 9.2 0.7 10.0 3 Urban 91.3 1014 East 1,311 12.0 0.2 12.2 1 Urban 97.1 1015 South 1,946 8.2 -0.2 8.0 3 Urban 95.4 1016 Ballycolman 1,343 10.2 -0.1 10.1 1 Urban 97.5 1101 Trillick 1,574 5.4 0.3 5.8 6 Rural 69.1 1102 Dromore 1,711 7.4 0.2 7.7 3 Rural 81.8 1103 Drumquin 1,477 6.9 0.3 7.2 2 Rural 69.0 1104 Fairy Water 1,487 3.8 0.1 3.9 7 Rural 44.6 1105 Clanabogan 1,960 4.1 0.4 4.5 6 Rural 62.2 1106 Fintona 1,404 6.2 0.4 6.7 2 Rural 72.9 1107 Newtownsaville 1,629 4.0 0.1 4.2 6 Rural 63.6 1108 Sixmilecross 1,489 4.7 0.4 5.2 3 Rural 75.8 1109 Beragh 1,536 3.9 0.3 4.3 6 Rural 42.5 1110 Drumnakilly 1,860 6.8 0.4 7.2 3 Rural 79.5 1111 Termon 1,735 7.2 0.0 7.2 2 Rural 97.0 1112 Owenkillew 1,642 8.0 -0.1 8.0 3 Rural 93.2 1113 Gortin 1,504 3.9 0.1 4.1 6 Rural 49.0 1114 Lisanelly 1,198 8.3 1.1 9.5 4 Urban 58.6 1115 Killyclogher 1,828 10.6 0.4 11.1 6 Urban 91.5 1116 Camowen 1,470 4.0 0.5 4.5 5 Urban 49.0 1117 Drumragh 1,606 3.3 0.1 3.4 6 Urban 18.7

Page 118 Electoral Commission NI Continuous Registration: Components of Change

Table B4.1 Continuous registration: Net changes by Electoral Ward Register Net change: Deprivation Area Catholic share June ‘07 Dec '06 - Mar Mar '07 - June Dec '06 - June Decile of population '07 '07 '07 % % % % % 1118 Dergmoney 1,206 4.0 0.4 4.4 5 Urban 63.3 1119 Coolnagard 2,201 5.9 0.1 6.0 6 Urban 90.6 1120 Gortrush 1,418 7.5 0.1 7.6 5 Urban 94.7 1121 Strule 1,023 4.1 0.4 4.5 2 Urban 73.5 Sources: EONI; NISRA.

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