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Russian Political Warfare: Origin, Evolution, and Application

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Russian Political Warfare: Origin, Evolution, and Application Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 2015-06 Russian political warfare: origin, evolution, and application Dickey, Jeffrey V. Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/45838 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS RUSSIAN POLITICAL WARFARE: ORIGIN, EVOLUTION, AND APPLICATION by Jeffrey V. Dickey Thomas B. Everett Zane M. Galvach Matthew J. Mesko Anton V. Soltis June 2015 Thesis Advisor: Hy S. Rothstein Second Reader: Stephen J. Blank Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED June 2015 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS RUSSIAN POLITICAL WARFARE: ORIGIN, EVOLUTION, AND APPLICATION 6. AUTHOR(S) Jeffrey V. Dickey, Thomas B. Everett, Zane M. Galvach, Matthew J.Mesko, Anton V.Soltis 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. IRB Protocol number ____N/A____. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited A 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) Russia’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and subsequent activities in Eastern Ukraine are not isolated incidents, but rather a new form of hybrid war, or asymmetric warfare. They are part of a decades-long and continent- spanning Russian political warfare (PW) campaign. Analysis of the origin, history, and evolution of Soviet/Russian PW from 1917 through today reveals that Russia is using PW to assert regional dominance and challenge the unipolarity of the United States and the West. A review of events in Ukraine demonstrates Russia is using its latest evolution of PW doctrine, the Gerasimov Model, to achieve strategic objectives while remaining below the military response threshold of the international community. This paper combines an empirical and case study review of PW, with lessons from the Cold War, to propose a conceptual framework and a supporting model for foreign policy makers, planners, and practitioners to better understand PW. Furthermore, it recommends the United States adopt a proactive PW strategy to support national policy objectives and counter the PW activities of Russia and other rising powers. United States Special Operations Forces are well-suited for PW and will play a pivotal role in a U.S. PW strategy that encompasses all elements of national power and synchronizes the interagency community. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF political warfare, unconventional warfare, asymmetric warfare, hybrid warfare, Russia, Russian PAGES Federation, Cold War, foreign policy, national strategy, Eastern Europe, Ukraine, Donbass, Crimea, 319 special operations, Gerasimov, Bezmenov, new generation warfare 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited RUSSIAN POLITICAL WARFARE: ORIGIN, EVOLUTION, AND APPLICATION Zane M. Galvach Thomas B. Everett Major, United States Army Major, United States Army B.S., United States Military Academy, B.A., North Georgia College and State 2004 University, 2004 Matthew J. Mesko Jeffrey V. Dickey Major, United States Army Lieutenant, United States Navy B.S., Michigan Technological B.S., The Citadel, 2009 University, 2001 Anton V. Soltis Major, United States Army B.S., Clarkson University, 2003 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN DEFENSE ANALYSIS from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL June 2015 Authors: Jeffrey Dickey, Thomas Everett, Zane Galvach, Matthew Mesko, Anton Soltis Approved by: Hy Rothstein Thesis Advisor Stephen Blank Second Reader John Arquilla Chair, Department of Defense Analysis iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii ABSTRACT Russia’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and subsequent activities in Eastern Ukraine are not isolated incidents, but rather a new form of hybrid war, or asymmetric warfare. They are part of a decades-long and continent-spanning Russian political warfare (PW) campaign. Analysis of the origin, history, and evolution of Soviet/ Russian PW from 1917 through today reveals that Russia is using PW to assert regional dominance and challenge the unipolarity of the United States and the West. A review of events in Ukraine demonstrates Russia is using its latest evolution of PW doctrine, the Gerasimov Model, to achieve strategic objectives while remaining below the military response threshold of the international community. This paper combines an empirical and case study review of PW, with lessons from the Cold War, to propose a conceptual framework and a supporting model for foreign policy makers, planners, and practitioners to better understand PW. Furthermore, it recommends the United States adopt a proactive PW strategy to support national policy objectives and counter the PW activities of Russia and other rising powers. United States Special Operations Forces are well-suited for PW and will play a pivotal role in a U.S. PW strategy that encompasses all elements of national power and synchronizes the interagency community. iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION: RUSSIAN POLITICAL WARFARE.......................................1 A. PROBLEM STATEMENT AND BACKGROUND .....................................1 B. PURPOSE .........................................................................................................2 1. Research Question: How can the United States use United States Special Operations Forces (USSOF) to Counter Russian- Sponsored Political Warfare? .............................................................2 2. Primary Hypothesis .............................................................................2 3. Supporting Hypotheses ........................................................................2 4. Methodology .........................................................................................3 a. Supporting Hypothesis 1 ...........................................................3 b. Supporting Hypothesis 2 ...........................................................3 c. Supporting Hypothesis 3 ...........................................................4 d. Supporting Hypothesis 4 ...........................................................4 e. Supporting Hypothesis 5 ...........................................................4 f. Primary Hypothesis ...................................................................5 II. POLITICAL WARFARE: ORIGINS AND IMPLEMENTATION .......................7 A. POLITICAL WARFARE DEFINED ............................................................9 B. POLITICAL WARFARE TODAY ..............................................................16 1. Russia ..................................................................................................16 2. China ...................................................................................................18 3. Iran ......................................................................................................19 4. Terrorist/ Non-State Actors (NSAs) .................................................20 C. CASE STUDY: THE COMMUNIST TAKEOVER OF EASTERN EUROPE .........................................................................................................21 1. Historical Background.......................................................................22 2. Infrastructure Development .............................................................24 3. Destabilization ....................................................................................26 4. Crisis....................................................................................................28 5. Consolidation ......................................................................................28 6. Conclusion ..........................................................................................28 D. CASE STUDY: THE COMMUNIST TAKE OVER OF CZECHOSLOVAKIA 1921-1948 ................................................................29 1. Infrastructure Development:
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