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Carrying Capacity Report for Black River and Its Tributaries

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Carrying Capacity Report for Black River and Its Tributaries CARRYING CAPACITY REPORT FOR BLACK RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES Submitted: March 9, 2016 REVISED DRAFT Carrying Capacity Report for Black River and its tributaries REVISED DRAFT Prepared by Environmental Solutions Limited for the National Environment and Planning Agency 10 and 11 Caledonia Avenue Kingston 5 Jamaica, W.I. Telephone: (876) 754-7540 Fax: (876) 754-7596 Email: [email protected] Website: www.nepa.gov.jm All rights reserved. This publication may be reproduced in whole or part for education or non- profit purposes without the special permission from the copyright holder except for the photograph (s) for which prior permission in writing, must be received from the copyright holder(s). Acknowledgement of the source must be made and the National Environment and Planning Agency would appreciate receiving a copy of any such publication. Copyright ©2015 by the National Environment and Planning Agency Revised Draft Carrying Capacity Report Acknowledgments We would like to thank the entire team and associated consultants who assisted with the preparation of this report. Many thanks to the individuals and organizations within the study area of Black River such as the St. Elizabeth Parish Development Committee Limited, who assisted with the logistics of field trips, gathering of data and in general, their kindness and willingness to work with us, in identifying key stakeholders. Without their invaluable input, compilation of this report would not have been possible. To those key stakeholders who gave us the time and opportunity to engage in numerous discussions and provided us with information pertinent to fulfilling the objectives of this project, thank you. We would also like to thank the National Environment and Planning Agency who provided guidance and assistance wherever possible and for their kind understanding of some of the challenges we encountered along the way. i Revised Draft Carrying Capacity Report Table of Contents Acknowledgments............................................................................................................................ i Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................ ii List of Abbreviations and Acronyms ............................................................................................ vii List of Figures .............................................................................................................................. viii List of Tables ................................................................................................................................ xii List of Appendices ....................................................................................................................... xiii Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................ 1 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 3 1.1 Purpose and Objectives .................................................................................................... 3 1.2 Consultancy Outcome ...................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Defining Carrying Capacity ............................................................................................. 4 1.4 Contextual Background .................................................................................................... 5 1.5 Legislative, Policy and Institutional Responsibilities ...................................................... 6 2 Approach/Methodology ........................................................................................................ 12 2.1 Desk Research and Document Review .......................................................................... 12 2.2 Land Use Mapping and Site Description ....................................................................... 13 2.3 Physical and Ecological Assessment.............................................................................. 13 2.3.1 Ecology ................................................................................................................... 14 2.3.2 Water Quality Assessment and Profiles .................................................................. 14 2.3.3 Hydrogeology ......................................................................................................... 16 2.4 Socioeconomic Assessment ........................................................................................... 17 2.4.1 Boat Counting ......................................................................................................... 18 ii Revised Draft Carrying Capacity Report 2.5 Institutional Authorities and Capacity............................................................................ 19 2.6 Recommendations and Standards of Development ........................................................ 19 2.7 Assessment of the Alternatives ...................................................................................... 19 2.8 Determination of Carrying Capacity .............................................................................. 19 2.9 Statistical approach for Carrying Capacity Assessment ................................................ 23 3 Existing Environment ........................................................................................................... 27 3.1 The Project Area - Black River Catchment .................................................................... 27 3.1.1 Upper Morass .......................................................................................................... 29 3.2 Lower Morass ................................................................................................................. 32 3.3 Ecology........................................................................................................................... 34 3.3.1 YS Falls River ......................................................................................................... 35 3.3.2 Maggotty River ....................................................................................................... 36 3.3.3 Black River ............................................................................................................. 37 3.3.4 Middle Quarters ...................................................................................................... 39 3.3.5 Broad River ............................................................................................................. 40 3.3.6 Other Key Areas: Confluence (merging of Broad and Black Rivers) .................... 40 3.4 Tree Species Observed ................................................................................................... 41 3.5 Faunal Observations ....................................................................................................... 41 3.5.1 Avifauna .................................................................................................................. 41 3.5.2 Crocodiles ............................................................................................................... 41 3.5.3 Indicators................................................................................................................. 42 3.6 Physical Setting .............................................................................................................. 46 3.6.1 Hydrology ............................................................................................................... 46 iii Revised Draft Carrying Capacity Report 3.6.2 Water quality ........................................................................................................... 66 3.6.3 Indicators................................................................................................................. 72 3.7 Socioeconomic ............................................................................................................... 74 3.7.1 Demographics ......................................................................................................... 74 3.7.2 Heritage ................................................................................................................... 79 3.7.3 Road Transportation and Traffic ............................................................................. 80 3.7.4 Economic Drivers ................................................................................................... 81 3.7.5 Stakeholder Engagement ........................................................................................ 87 3.8 Socio-economic Indicators ........................................................................................... 103 4 Potential Impacts ................................................................................................................. 105 4.1 Climate ......................................................................................................................... 105 4.1.1 Rainfall .................................................................................................................. 105 4.2 Natural Hazards ............................................................................................................ 107 4.2.1 Tropical Cyclone and Flooding ...........................................................................
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