BEYOND CONVERGENCE World Without Order
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BEYOND CONVERGENCE World Without Order Edited by Hilary Matfess and Michael Miklaucic BEYOND CONVERGENCE BEYOND CONVERGENCE World Without Order ______________________________________ Edited by Hilary Matfess and Michael Miklaucic Center for Complex Operations Institute for National Strategic Studies National Defense University Washington, D.C. Cover: Yayoi Kusama, Infinity Mirror Room-Filled with the Brilliance of Life (2011) Layout Design: Viviana Edwards Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the contributors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Defense Department or any other agency of the Federal Government. Cleared for public release; distribution unlimited. Portions of this book may be quoted or reprinted without permission, provided that a standard source credit line is included. The Center for Complex Operations at National Defense University would appreciate a courtesy copy of reprints or reviews. First printing, October 2016 For current publications of the Center for Complex Operations, consult the CCO website at http://www.cco.ndu.edu. Contents Acknowledgments ................................................................................................ vii Introduction: World Order or Disorder? ......................................................... ix Hilary Matfess and Michael Miklaucic I. Slouching Toward Dystopia 1 The Global Crisis of Governance ....................................................................... 21 Phil Williams 2 The Twin Insurgencies: Plutocrats and Criminals Challenge the Westphalian State .......................................................... 47 Nils Gilman 3 The Islamic State Revolution .............................................................................. 61 Scott Atran 4 The March Is Not Linear: Big Party Politics and the Decline of Democracy Worldwide ............................................................................................................ 89 Francis Fukuyama and Hilary Matfess 5 Costs of Hedging Bad: The Global Threat Network and Impact on Financial Market Volatility .................................................................................................. 117 Jay Chittooran and Scott Helfstein II. One Network 6 Terrorist and Criminal Dynamics: A Look Beyond the Horizon ...................... 137 Christopher Dishman 7 Hezbollah’s Criminal Networks: Useful Idiots, Henchmen, and Organized Criminal Facilitators ............................................................................................ 155 Matthew Levitt 8 Convergence in Criminalized States: The New Paradigm ................................ 179 Douglas Farah 9 ISIL and the Goal of Organizational Survival .................................................. 195 Jessica Stern v III. Pandora 10 Virtually Illicit: The Use of Social Media in a Hyper-Connected World ....... 215 Tuesday Reitano and Andrew Trabulsi 11 “We Pay, You Pay”: Protection Economies, Financial Flows, and Violence .. 235 Mark Shaw 12 The Neglected Mega-Problem: Illicit Trade in “Normally Licit” Goods ....... 251 Karl Lallerstedt 13 Cybercrime: The Evolution of Traditional Crime .......................................... 275 Raj Samani IV. A Toolbox for the 21st Century 14 Leviathan Redux: Toward a Community of Effective States .......................... 297 Clare Lockhart and Michael Miklaucic 15 Communicate, Cooperate, and Collaborate (C3) Through Public-Private Partnerships (P3) to Counter the Convergence of Illicit Networks ...................... 331 Celina Realuyo 16 Adapting to Today’s Battlefield: The Islamic State and Irregular War as the “New Normal”...................................................................................................... 353 Sebastian Gorka 17 Networks at War: Organizational Innovation and Adaptation in the 21st Century ................................................................................................ 369 Christopher Fussell and D.W. Lee About the Contributors .................................................................................... 391 vi Acknowledgments n 2013, National Defense University Press published Convergence: Illicit Networks and National Security in the Age of Globalization. It was an effort to map the many issues Iarising from the accelerating interactions among international terrorist, transnational criminal, and networked insurgent organizations. To meet demand, over 10,000 copies were printed. It generated much discussion—including much criticism—and led the editors to conclude that the debate over how to understand the emerging threat environment was only beginning. Therefore, we would like to acknowledge and thank the many readers and critics of Convergence, for taking up the challenge and for laying out a gauntlet. Ongoing research on the scope and dynamics of illicit network convergence indicates that this phenomenon is penetrating new domains and markets, taking on new characteristics, and continuing to morph at a velocity very hard to match. It is evident that continuing empirical analysis and thought-provoking discussion of these new dimensions are critical if the United States is to meet this challenge to both national and international security. The Center for Complex Operations (CCO) at NDU and the editors wish to acknowledge and thank the Office of the Secretary of Defense—in particular, the leadership of the Office of Counternarcotics and Global Threats, for recognizing the national security implications of this phenomenon and supporting our effort to take up the gauntlet laid out. Without their sponsorship, this project would not have materialized. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Caryn Hollis is a visionary in the struggle to counter transnational criminal organizations and emerging global threats. We also wish to recognize David Sobyra for his encouragement and early and consistent support for this NDU/CCO effort. CCO benefits enormously from our outstanding team of volunteer interns in all of its work. The editors are especially indebted to Samantha Fletcher, Oliver Vaughn, Shawn McFall, and Chris Johnson for their assistance in proofreading and formatting these chapters. We also thank other members of the CCO staff, who provided unwavering support. In particular, the untiring efforts of Becky Harper, Dale Erickson, and Dr. Joseph Collins have been critical in enabling us to succeed. Additionally, Tamara Tanso has again proven herself a peerless professional and a perfectionist in the final preparation ofBeyond Convergence. We wish also to express our deep gratitude to Vivian Edwards, Michael Mann, and the William J. Perry Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies at NDU for heroic support in the production of the first printing. Many have advised us along the way. If we have left any unacknowledged, it is either by their request, or our oversight, which we regret. There are some who would like to have contributed but were prevented by circumstances. Nevertheless, we thank them all and look forward to engaging with them again in the future. However, our greatest appreciation goes to the authors for their enthusiasm, patience, and commitment to this project. vii Introduction: World Order or Disorder? Hilary Matfess and Michael Miklaucic he world order built upon the Peace of Westphalia is faltering. State fragility or failure are endemic, with no fewer than one-third of the states in the United Nations earning a “high warning”—or worse—in the Fragile States Index, and an equal T 1 number suffering a decline in sustainability over the past decade. State weakness invites a range of illicit actors, including international terrorists, globally networked insurgents, and transnational criminal organizations (TCOs). The presence and operations of these entities keep states weak and incapable of effective governance, and limit the possibility of fruitful partnerships with the United States and its allies. Illicit organizations and their networks fuel corruption, eroding state legitimacy among the governed, and sowing doubt that the state is a genuine guardian of the public interest. These networks can penetrate the state, leading to state capture, and even criminal sovereignty.2 A growing number of weak and corrupt states is creating gaping holes in the global rule-based system of states that we depend on for our security and prosperity. Indeed, the chapters of this book suggest the emergence of a highly adaptive and parasitic alternative ecosystem, based on criminal commerce and extreme violence, with little regard for what we commonly conceive of as the public interest or the public good. The last 10 years have seen unprecedented growth in interactivity between and among a wide range of illicit networks, as well as the emergence of hybrid organizations that use methods characteristic of both terrorist and criminal groups. In a convergence of interests, terrorist organizations collaborate with cartels, and trafficking organizations collude with insurgents. International terrorist organizations, such as al-Qaeda and Hezbollah, engage energetically in transnational crime to raise funds for their operations. Prominent criminal organizations like Los Zetas in Mexico and D-Company in Pakistan have adopted the symbolic violence of terrorists—the propaganda of the deed—to secure their “turf.” And networked insurgents, such as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil