WMO-No. 968.Txt(2Col)

METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Perspectives of Prof. G.O.P. Obasi, Secretary-General Emeritus, World Meteorological Organization

WMO-No. 968

METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

NOTE

The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. CONTENTS

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PREFACE ...... VII

CHAPTER 1—WMO HISTORY AND ACTIVITIES ...... 1 International cooperation in meteorology ...... 1 WMO’s contributions to the development of meteorology ...... 23 Statement on the occasion of the 150th Anniversary of Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics of Austria ...... 29 Inauguration ceremony of the new WMO Headquarters building ...... 31

CHAPTER 2—ADDRESSING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND AGENDA 21 ...... 34 Implementation of Agenda 21 of the 1992 UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) ...... 34 The role of meteorology in support of sustainable development ...... 39 Second conference on women in meteorology and hydrology ...... 46 Sustainability science in Africa ...... 50 Ministerial segment of the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) ...... 61

CHAPTER 3—UNDERSTANDING PLANET EARTH THROUGH GEOSCIENCES AND RESEARCH 65 An overview of research, education and training activities of WMO ...... 65 Synergy in science and society: partnership in the geosciences ...... 70 The development of geosciences in Africa ...... 72 WMO Global Atmosphere Watch station ...... 77 Advances in Meteorology—contribution to modern society ...... 79

CHAPTER 4—THE WORLD WEATHER WATCH AND PUBLIC WEATHER SERVICES . . . . . 92 A new global composite upper air observing system in support of WMO Programmes for the 21st century ...... 92 Fourth EUMETSAT user Forum in Africa (4th Session) ...... 101 Meteorology and the Media in the 21st century ...... 103 Strategy for enhancement and improvement of World Weather Watch (WWW) Basic Systems and New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) ...... 107

CHAPTER 5—THE CLIMATE AGENDA ...... 109 WMO/ICSU/IOC Conference on World Climate Research Programme: achievements, benefits and challenges ...... 109 The role of WMO in addressing the El Niño phenomenon ...... 112 The Greater Horn of Africa—Climate Outlook Forum and implications for regional food security ...... 120 Third CRIA Symposium on climate and applications ...... 122 Page

Second International Symposium related to Physico–mathematical Problems on Climate Modelling and Prediction ...... 126

CHAPTER 6—EVOLUTION OF THE ISSUE OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE ENERGY CONNECTION ...... 129 Climate variability and change: consequences for human activities ...... 129 Climate change: focus on policy decisions in the next several decades ...... 137 Responding to the potential threat of climate change in the pacific region: challenges and opportunities for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) ...... 144 International Symposium on Climate Change (ISCC) ...... 152

CHAPTER 7—WATER RESOURCES ...... 155 Hydrology and water resources: issues and priorities for the 21st century ...... 155 African Ministerial Conference on Water (AMCOW) ...... 163 Challenges for safe drinking water technologies in the 21st century ...... 167 Flood Day at the Third World Water Forum ...... 172 Water, energy and climate at the Water Dome ...... 176

CHAPTER 8—FOOD SECURITY ...... 179 World Food Summit ...... 179 International Workshop on Climate Predictions and Agriculture (CLIMAG) ...... 183 iv World Food Summit: five years later ...... 185

CHAPTER 9—EXTREME EVENTS AND NATURAL DISASTERS ...... 190 International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) Programme Forum ...... 190 Second Joint Session of WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones and ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee ...... 194 Forecasting natural disasters to mitigate their effects ...... 197

CHAPTER 10—EDUCATION AND TRAINING AND RELATIONS WITH PROFESSIONAL SOCIETIES AND ACADEMIC INSTITUTIONS ...... 205 1999 Graduation Ceremony of the College due Léman ...... 205 150th Anniversary of the Royal Meteorological Society ...... 207 Conference of the South African Society for Atmospheric Sciences and the African Meteorological Society ...... 209 Ninth WMO Symposium on Education and Training ...... 212

CHAPTER 11—SPECIAL SUB-REGIONAL ACTIVITIES AND CHALLENGES TO NMHS’s . . . . 215 Africa ...... 215 International Workshop on West African Monsoon Variability and Predictability (WAMAP) 215 First Workshop on the Transformation of the Kenya Meteorological Department into an Autonomous Agency ...... 217 Asia and South Pacific ...... 224 WMO Workshop on Regional Transboundary Smoke and Haze in South-East Asia . . . . 224 Working together towards enhancing NMSs in Asia ...... 227 Americas ...... 230 Forty-Second Meeting of the Caribbean Meteorological Council ...... 230 Table of contents

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Mediterranean and Commonwealth of Independent States ...... 234 Second Euro-Mediterranean Ministerial Conference on Local Water Management . . . . . 234 Fourteenth Session of the Interstate Council on Hydrometeorology of the Countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States ...... 238

CHAPTER 12—CHALLENGES TO WMO BODIES ...... 243 Regional Associations ...... 243 Eleventh Session of Regional Association II (Asia) ...... 243 First Session of the Working Group on Internal Matters of Regional Association III (South America) ...... 247 Thirteenth Session of Regional Association I (Africa) ...... 251 Technical commissions ...... 256 Twelfth Session of the Commission for Marine Meteorology ...... 256 Twelfth Session of the Commission for Instruments and Methods of Observation . . . . 259 Thirteenth Session of the WMO Commission for Atmospheric Sciences ...... 262 Conjoint Session of the Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology/Meteorology Divisional Meeting ...... 263 Extraordinary Session of the Commission for Basic Systems ...... 266

CHAPTER 13—CHALLENGES TO JOINT ORGANIZATIONS AND OTHER BODIES ...... 270 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ...... 270 Twentieth Session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ...... 270 Joint Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM) ...... 274 v First Session of the Joint WMO/IOC Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM)) ...... 274 Conference of parties to un framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC) ...... 278 Seventh Session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ...... 278 Conference of parties to the un convention to combat desertification (UNCCD) ...... 281 Fifth Session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) ...... 281 Convention on ozone layer ...... 285 Ninth Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer ...... 285 Business organizations ...... 287 General assembly meeting of the Association of Hydro-Meteorological Equipment Industry ...... 287

CHAPTER 14—FUTURE OF WMO AND NMHSs ...... 290 Future of WMO within the United Nations System ...... 290 Management of change, National Meteorological and Hydrological Services: a vision for the 21st century ...... 297 International cooperation in meteorology ...... 298

REFERENCES ...... 300

PREFACE

The world community became more sensitized to the linkage between the environment and development following the severe droughts in the Sahel, West Africa in the late sixties and early seventies and the outcome of the 1972 Stockholm Declaration of the United Nations Conference on multilateral cooperation, the developing of Human Environment. During the ensuing institutions and the taking of policy actions to decades, WMO’s unique network of operational tackle the growing problems of environment, and research facilities that includes monitoring, particularly as they impact on human welfare and telecommunications and data processing systems, development. WMO was thus able to bring to built over 100 years since the establishment of the forefront of the global agenda weather- WMO’s predecessor the International climate- and water-related concerns that will Meteorological Organization (IMO) in 1873, has continue to feature prominently among the many placed the Organization in a leading position to challenging issues facing humanity in the 21st address many of the weather-, climate- and water- century. related concerns of humankind. As Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Among the wide-ranging initiatives, the Organization from 1984 to the end of 2003, I had vii Organization issued the first authoritative the privilege to initiate and take an active part in statements on the depletion of the ozone layer many of these developments within WMO, the (1975) and on the threat of climate change UN system and in many other regional and (1976) and carried out the first Global Weather international fora. I accordingly had the Experiment which led to improved monitoring of opportunity to meet with and address Heads of weather and climate and increasingly accurate State and Governments, ministers and other high- forecasts with longer lead time. Along with other level policy makers, meteorologists, hydrologists UN system organizations, especially the United and other scientists, the academic community, Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), WMO school children, the media and the public. In as a UN Specialized Agency for meteorology and particular, over the period from late 1996 to the hydrology organized the historic Villach first half of 2003, I delivered over 250 substantive Conference on the impact of greenhouse gases addresses and lectures in all parts of the world on climate; established the Intergovernmental and to a wide range of audiences. An illustrative Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Global selection of these is included in this volume. Climate Observing System (GCOS); initiated negotiations on the framework convention on The papers therefore reflect WMO’s actions, climate change; organized the Second World initiatives, aspirations and concerns related to Climate Conference and contributed actively to advances in meteorological, hydrological and Agenda 21 of the United Nations Conference on related geophysical sciences and their Environment and Development (UNCED), to the applications to socio-economic development and International Decade for Natural Disaster environment protection at the local, national, Reduction (IDNDR) and its successor the regional and global levels. From my vantage International Strategy for Disaster Reduction point, I could see the growing awareness among (ISDR) and to the outcome of the World Summit the world community of the central role played on Sustainable Development (WSSD). by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in contributing to sustaining productive The response of the international community to life on planet Earth. Some of the major problems all these initiatives has been the strengthening of include natural disasters, water supply, food Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

security, contamination of the global atmosphere, In putting the materials together for this education and training and international publication, I was fortunate to secure the services cooperation. The evolution of some of these of Dr James P. Bruce, who has in no small issues, especially from the mid-1990`s into the measure contributed to international activities in new millennium, and the corresponding practical meteorological and hydrological sciences. He was actions taken or envisaged to address these can Assistant Deputy Minister responsible for the be traced in this volume. National Meteorological Service of Canada and a member of the WMO Executive Council. He Indeed, through the presentations, various worked closely with me as Director of the important messages on weather, climate, water Technical Cooperation Department and later as and sustainable development emanating from Acting Deputy Secretary-General, between 1986 WMO’s activities have been passed on to and 1989. I also appreciate the assistance stakeholders, thus enabling governments, rendered to me by various staff of WMO, researchers, non-governmental organizations, especially Dr R. De Guzman and Mr S. Chacowry, media, the private sector and civil society to have who served successively as my Special Assistant, first-hand knowledge and to be aware of in carrying out research for the materials that authoritative scientific information as well as of make up the bulk of the presentations. WMO’s policies related to these issues as promulgated by the WMO Congress, the Executive Council, technical commissions and regional associations.

Above all, this publication encapsulates an important period in the history of the Organization and challenges professionals, policy makers and partners to do better and support viii developing countries as essential partners (G.O.P. Obasi) through international cooperation. Secretary-General Emeritus CHAPTER 1 WMO HISTORY AND ACTIVITIES1

International cooperation in meteorology

Statement presented at the First Student Conference of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) (Orlando, Florida, USA, 13 January 2002)

Introduction and historical background Photographs of planet Earth viewed from space show a solitary spherical planet rotating about its axis in space (Figure 1.1). This image illustrates that we have a common home, Earth, which we all need to preserve and protect for present and future generations. To achieve this, we need an integrated global effort; thus international cooperation is highly necessary, including in the field of meteorology. 1 This paper addresses the topic of international cooperation in meteorology by demonstrating such cooperation in global operational systems, in the provision of relevant services, in research and in support of policy-making. International cooperation has been promoted and facilitated by the World Meteorological Organization Figure 1.1—First visible imagery of planet Earth (WMO), which in turn has cooperated with other viewed from meteorological satellite United Nations system organizations as well as other institutions and sectors. There are in a natural manner to the realization of the need implications for human resources development for international cooperation in the field of and sustainable development, which are also meteorology. Indeed the Chernobyl nuclear focused upon. accident of 1986 and the rapid transport of the radionuclides across national borders clearly To better appreciate current and future demonstrated the wisdom of international cooperation, let us briefly describe how cooperation in the exchange of data and meteorology, and cooperation therein, evolved. information.

The planet is enveloped by a thin layer of gas, 99 Fortunately, it has long been recognized that per cent of which is less than 30 km above meteorology, as a geophysical science, requires earth’s surface. This gas we call the atmosphere. that frequent and accurate measurements of The recognition of the truly global nature of the various atmospheric elements over large areas of atmosphere with no frontier (Figure 1.2) has led the Earth be undertaken and that the information

1 Editor’s Note: This statement and the other excerpts in this chapter have been selected from among a number of lectures presented by Professor Obasi on the the history of international cooperation in meteorology, including the origins of WMO and its programmes and activities. Chapter 1 begins with a comprehensive historic overview, as presentation Florida, USA, in 2002. This is followed by additional historic insights as contained in excerpts from the Sir Gilbert Walker Memorial Lecture, New Delhi, India, 20 March 2001, from a statement in Vienna in 2001, outlining the key role of Austria in the early development of international meteorology, from a statement marking the opening of WMO’s new headquarters building in Geneva in 1999. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

national storm-warning service in France. In 1863 the Paris Observatory began publishing the first weather maps in modern format.

Even before this disaster, the severity of some extreme weather events experienced at sea by commercial shipping and naval vessels led a US Naval Officer, Lieutenant Matthew Fontaine Maury, to propose the organization of an International Conference in Brussels in 1853 (WMO, 1990). The kernel of Maury’s proposal Night Day was that: “…the navies of all maritime nations should cooperate and make these meteorological observations in such manner t and with such means that the system might be uniform and the observation made on board the public ships be readily referred to and compared with observations made on board all other ships, in whatever part of the world. And moreover, as it is desirable to enlist the voluntary cooperation of the commercial Figure 1.2—A broad band of westerlies in the marine as well as that of the military of all extra tropics of each hemisphere in which there nations in this system of research, it becomes is an embedded jet stream at about 10 km above not only proper, but politic, that the forms of the Earth’s surface the abstract log to be used, with the (Source: Trenberth and Solomon (1994) description of the instruments to be employed, 2 the things to be observed, with the be exchanged, for research and for practical manipulation of the instruments and the applications. methods and modes of operation, should be the joint work of the principal parties The invention of the thermometer, the new rain concerned.” gauge and the anemometer during the 17th century, and in particular the barometry of The Conference was attended by 12 delegates, Evangelista Torricelli in 1643, as well as the mainly naval officers from nine countries. The hygrometer, facilitated the measurements of the proposal of Lt. Maury was adopted and the elements in the atmosphere. The invention of the Conference itself demonstrated very clearly the electric telegraph by Samuel Morse in 1843 set important benefits to be derived from the stage for the transmission of data acquired in meteorology through international cooperation. different locations to any chosen centre. Meanwhile, as the importance of meteorology With the expansion of the telegraphic network, became more recognized, National Meteorological the physicist Joseph Henry arranged for telegraph Services (NMSs) were being set up especially in companies in the USA to have meteorological Europe. In fact as far back as 1780, the Societas instruments in exchange for current data on Meteorologica Palatina in Mannheim had set up a weather, telegraphed to the Smithsonian network of 40 weather observing stations in Institution. Some 500 stations joined this Germany and in other European countries, as well cooperative effort by 1860. Meanwhile, a disaster as a few in the United States — forming the first occurring in Europe had accelerated the need for international network of meteorological stations. data and information exchange among nations. On The data from these stations were used November 14, 1854, an unexpected storm systematically for the first time in 1820 by Brandes wrecked British and French warships off Balaclava, in Leipzig to produce maps showing weather now in the Republic of Ukraine. Had word of the patterns over a large area. approaching storm been telegraphed to this port on the Black Sea, the ships might have been saved. With the promising developments that had taken This mishap led in 1856 to the establishment of a place in the science and application of Chapter 1 — WMO History and Activities meteorology, leading meteorologists in Austria, Regional Associations whereby nations within the Russia and Germany met in 1872 in Leipzig to boundaries of a particular Region became discuss what further steps to take in order to automatically Members of that Regional sustain and improve upon the progress already Association. IMO also fostered cooperation with achieved. The letter of invitation stated clearly other organizations having an interest in the purpose of the meeting in the following meteorology, especially the International terms: Commission for Air Navigation, which was later absorbed by the International Civil Aviation “At the present time, the increasing interest in Organization (ICAO), and with the International meteorological research shown by all civilized Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) of the countries has led to a demand for far-reaching International Council for Science (ICSU). After coordination and standardization of the methods the Second World War and with the creation of and procedures in use in different countries. Such the United Nations, the IMO was replaced by suggestions have been put forward and discussed WMO, established on 23 March 1950, and it so frequently (e.g. by C.H.D. Buys Ballot in his became a specialized agency of the United paper ‘Suggestions on a uniform system of Nations in 1951. meteorological observation’, Utrecht 1872) that the undersigned consider it both feasible and At the closing of the final meeting of IMO, the timely to propose the convening of a President, Sir Nelson Johnson, formally declared meteorological conference.” that IMO had ceased to exist and that WMO had taken its place. His words were: “Thus came to an The meeting reached agreement on standardized end one of the pioneer organizations for methods of observations and analysis, including international cooperation. The torch it has the use of a single set of symbols to represent kindled is not extinguished but is handed on to a weather elements. It also prepared the way for new organization to maintain and foster…we go holding the First International Meteorological forward with confidence in the WMO to apply Congress, in Vienna, in 1873. meteorology more fully to the service of 3 mankind.” The replacement of IMO by WMO That Congress was in fact attended by 32 heralded a new era for international cooperation delegates from 20 countries. It was the first in the field of meteorology, hydrology and related important recognition that progress in geophysical sciences. meteorology could only be achieved if nations of the world worked together in full and in friendly The advent of satellite meteorology and the cooperation. It also signaled the realization that success of the TIROS series of satellites in the progress in the science of meteorology was 1960s opened a new frontier for international essential to progress in the social and economic cooperation on the peaceful uses of outer space. welfare of nations. It further took the important In his address to the United Nations General decision for the establishment of a permanent Assembly in September 1961, U.S. President John international body to foster the continued F. Kennedy stated that “scientists have studied progress of the science of meteorology and also the atmosphere for many decades but its to ensure that all nations could reap the practical problems continue to defy us…Here new benefits that such progress could make possible. scientific tools have become available. With This decision set the stage for the establishment modern computers, rockets and satellites, the of the predecessor of today’s WMO, namely the time is ripe for a concerted attack…the non-governmental International Meteorological atmospheric sciences require world-wide Organization (IMO) in 1873. observation and hence, international cooperation…we shall propose further The IMO continued to strengthen the beneficial cooperative efforts between all nations in policy of international cooperation in weather prediction…and… a global system of meteorology. It set up institutional mechanisms in satellites linking the whole world.” The the form of Technical Commissions whereby subsequent resolutions of the United Nations on qualified scientists in relevant fields covered by the subject led to the establishment of the unique the Commissions were to be nominated by their World Weather Watch (WWW), networking all countries as members of the respective countries under the aegis of WMO for the Commissions. Other mechanisms included monitoring and free exchange of weather and Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

climate data for research, training and of centres charged with the provision of applications to socio-economic activities. meteorological and related services; (b) To promote the establishment and Another outcome was the international endeavour maintenance of systems for the rapid of the Global Atmospheric Research Programme exchange of meteorological and related (GARP) that led to the development of the physical information; and mathematical basis for long-range weather (c) To promote standardization of prediction and to the study of the physical basis of meteorological and related observations climate. These two initiatives, whose success and to ensure the uniform publication of depended considerably on international observations and statistics; cooperation, led to unprecedented advances in the (d) To further the application of meteorology science of meteorology and its service in meeting to aviation, shipping, water problems, the weather-, climate-, water and environment- agriculture and other human activities; related challenges of the 21st century. (e) To promote activities in operational hydrology and to further close cooperation Much of the World Meteorological Organization’s between Meteorological and Hydrological strength derives from the fact that weather and Services; and climate do not recognize political or economic (f) To encourage research and training in boundaries. This has led its Member countries to meteorology and, as appropriate, in related commit themselves to contribute voluntarily to fields and to assist in coordinating the WMO’s scientific and technical programmes and international aspects of such research and activities. WMO is the United Nations system’s training. authoritative voice on the state and behaviour of the Earth’s atmosphere, its interaction with the Over the years, the symbiotic relationship oceans and the Earth’s surface, the resulting between field experiments, research and climate and the consequent distribution of water operational systems has gradually led to an 4 resources. Mr Kofi Annan, United Nations increasingly sophisticated network of Secretary-General and last year’s Nobel Peace observations, telecommunications and data Prize winner, called WMO the “original processing systems that attempt to meet the networker” and expressed his conviction that needs of all nations in weather, climate and water “the role of WMO will be even more important in information and data exchanges. The systems are the future”. This is in recognition of the based on the premise that every nation contributions of meteorology and of WMO to contributes to the overall efforts and in return human welfare and to the efforts aimed at the benefits from it. The systems are operated by the preservation of the planet Earth through countries themselves with WMO playing a international cooperation (WMO, 1999b). coordinating and catalysing role.

Global operational systems for The World Weather Watch science and service (WWW) International cooperation in the field of The WWW is the core WMO Programme and is a meteorology has led to cooperative arrangements unique global system through which the National for the creation of standardized weather Meteorological and Hydrological Services observation and their exchange and application (NMHSs) in virtually every country in the world to socio-economic activities. With this in mind, it (currently 185 Member countries) collects, is understandable that the purposes of WMO, as processes and exchanges observational data and stated in its Convention, are (WMO, 1999a): other meteorological information for day-to-day weather forecasts and warnings. The Global (a) To facilitate worldwide cooperation in the Observing System (GOS) of the WWW comprises establishment of networks of stations for the networks of about 10 000 manned and automatic making of meteorological observations as surface stations (Figure 1.3), about 1 000 upper- well as hydrological and other geophysical air stations on land and ships, about 7 300 observations related to meteorology, and to voluntary ships, some 3 000 commercial aircrafts promote the establishment and maintenance which provide over 100 000 additional Chapter 1 — WMO History and Activities

Figure 1.3—Typical daily coverage of surface observations made at meteorological stations (red) and from ships (blue) observations daily, 100 moored and 600 drifting observational data as well as to use up-to-date buoys, and weather radars operated by the techniques of numerical weather prediction, the NMHSs of the world. These are complemented by WWW developed the Global Data-processing a constellation of 10 polar-orbiting and System (GDPS) linking three World geostationary meteorological satellites (Figure Meteorological Centres (WMCs), 35 Regional 1.4) operated by some NMHSs or space agencies. Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMCs) and An artist’s impression of the First GARP Global 185 National Meteorological Centres (NMCs). The Experiment (1978–1979) with various observing products from the major centres are made systems is shown in Figure 1.5. available to other NMHSs, research institutions 5 and specialized users via the GTS. The GDPS The Global Telecommunication System (GTS) of World Centres are located in Melbourne, WMO is an elaborate combination of land- and Australia; Moscow, Russian Federation; and satellite-based communication facilities for the Washington, D.C., United States. The link exchange of data and products between all the between the operations of an NMS and the WWW NMHSs and related Geophysical Services on a is depicted in Figure 1.7. The WWW system has non-stop year-round basis, as shown in Figure 1.6. contributed in a unique way to the availability of In order to process the ever-increasing volume of quality-controlled meteorological data from all parts of the world for use in weather forecasting, climate prediction, research and training.

FY-1 METEOR (China) (Russian Atmospheric composition — the 850 KM GOES-E Federation) (USA) GOES-W 75°W (USA) Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) ° BIT 135 W OR Y AR N IO The monitoring of concentrations of greenhouse T P

A O T

S L O A E 35 800 Km R and other gases, the ozone layer, radioisotopes

B I SUBSATELLITE T GMS and aerosols are carried out through WMO’s POINT (Japan) 140°E Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) which comprises 22 fully operational global stations and FY-2 METEOSAT (China) ° over 200 regional GAW stations from more than (EUMETSAT) 105 E 0°Longitude METEOSAT (EUMETSAT) 60 countries. The data collected at these stations 63° E GOMS (Russian Federation) are essential in understanding the relationship ° TIROS 76 E (USA) between changing atmospheric composition and human-induced changes in global and regional climate. GAW activities also focus on the Figure 1.4—Global Observing System space- monitoring and research aspects of long-range based subsystem atmospheric transport and deposition of Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

Figure 1.5—First Garp Global experiment (1978–1979)

potentially harmful substances over terrestrial, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are shown in Figures freshwater and marine ecosystems, and the 1.9 and 1.10, respectively. An example of the natural cycling of chemical elements in the global state of the ozone layer over Antarctica during a atmosphere-ocean-biosphere system, and possible maximal phase of the “ozone hole” is shown in anthropogenic influences thereon. The locations Figure 1.11. WMO, in collaboration with the of the GAW stations are shown in Figure 1.8. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), 6 Many are operated by NMHSs and a number are undertakes periodic assessments of the state of operated by, or in cooperation with, other the ozone layer, such as those published in 1985, research and academic institutions. 1988, 1991, 1994 and 1998 (WMO, 1998). The next report will be produced in 2002. The GAW Since the late 1970s, measurements from the data and resulting assessments thus provide GAW surface stations have been augmented by crucial input on the state of atmospheric measurements from meteorological satellites composition and the estimation of the using special equipment, such as the Total Ozone degradation of the Earth’s atmosphere. Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and Upper Air Research Satellite (UARS). Some selected results of long-term measurements of CO2 and

Figure 1.6—Global WMCs Main Telecommunication Network Telecommunication RTHs Main Regional Telecommunication Network RSMCs and NMCs System Chapter 1 — WMO History and Activities

Figure 1.7—The World GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE POLAR Weather Watch and ORBITING AUTOMATIC SATELLITE the operations of an STATION AIRCRAFT NMS WEATHER METEOROLOGICAL RADAR SATELLITE CENTRE

OCEAN WEATHER DATA SHIP BUOY

SATELLITE GROUND SURFACE STATION STATION

UPPER-AIR STATION

AUTOMATED DATA-EDITING AND SWITCHING SYSTEM

NUMERICAL AREA ARCHIVES WEATHER FORECAST METEOROLOGICAL WATCH

0 Aug Sep Oct Nov

CENTRAL NUMERICAL 10 COMPUTING WEATHER 8 INTERPRETATION PREDICTION 6 4

FORMULATION VERY SHORT 2 OF USER RANGE 0 Aug Sep Oct Nov 7 ORIENTED FORECASTS SPECIAL NOWCASTS CLIMATOLOGICAL FORECASTS AND WARNINGS DATA & ADVISORIE

Figure1.8—Global 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20020 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Atmosphere Watch stations 60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0

20 20

40 40

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180 160140 120 100 80 60 40 20020 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Hydrological data data collection world-wide has not been keeping pace with the present development and Most hydrological data are collected at the management needs and the new demands being national level, primarily by NMHSs and National created by pressures for equitable sharing of Hydrological Services (NHSs). However, the surface and underground fresh water and the overall hydrological database, which is required requirement for sustainable development. In to provide an adequate assessment of global some countries, lack of resources has caused water resources and the hydrological cycle, is deterioration in basic hydrological services, considered to be inadequate. Indeed, hydrological including the collection and analysis of Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

380 Barrow Figure 1.9—Monthly 370 Mauna Loa mean carbon dioxide ) Samoa levels at four GAW

ppm South Pole ( 360 baseline stations on ti ra t 350 (Source: NOAA, CMDL)

concen 340 2 CO 330

320 1973 1975 1977 1979 19811983 19851987 1989 1991 19931995 1997 1999 2001 Year

8 Figure 1.10—Measurement of CFC-11 at eight Figure 1.11—Total ozone for 5 October 1999 GAW baseline stations (Source: NASA) (Source: NOAA, CMDL)

hydrological data. This results in inadequacy of addressed effectively through international hydrological data, such as river basin runoff, cooperation. evaporation, evapotranspiration, ground water levels and soil moisture content, that are used as parameters in hydrological and climate models of Global Climate Observing System regional and global interest. and other initiatives In order to enhance hydrological data collection A major initiative which relates primarily to and to contribute to the improvement of national climate monitoring is the development and and regional water resources assessment implementation of the Global Climate Observing capabilities, WMO has developed the World System (GCOS) which is based on the existing Hydrological Cycle Observing System major cooperative observing programmes of (WHYCOS), with the support of the World Bank, WMO, including those within the WWW, the European Union and France. WHYCOS, depicted World Climate Programme (WCP), the Hydrology in 1.12, is being implemented in regional and Water Resources Programme and GAW components through the NMHSs and other (WMO, 1992). WMO is a prominent sponsor of national hydrological agencies. For example, the GCOS, which was established specifically to seek MED-HYCOS has been developed for the to increase the availability of data on various Mediterranean region. WHYCOS offers a channel climate parameters. In particular, the objectives through which an increased exchange of of GCOS are to meet the needs for monitoring hydrological data can take place, thus the climate system, detecting climate change and contributing to improved hydrological forecasting monitoring the impacts of and the response to and climate studies and ensuring that some of the climate change, especially in terrestrial water-related challenges of this century be ecosystems and mean sea-level; to compile Chapter 1 — WMO History and Activities climate data for application to national economic GAW data development; and to conduct research toward Toronto, Canada, for ozone and UV-B radiation improved understanding, modelling and Oslo, Norway, for surface ozone prediction of the climate system. The Ispra, Italy, for aerosols measurement of some of these parameters is not Tokyo, Japan, for greenhouse gases fully within the scope of the NMHSs and requires St. Petersburg, Russian Federation, for radiation joint activities of the NMHSs with other Albany, United States, for precipitation chemistry institutions and research groups. Therefore, WMO, with several other UN system Quality Assurance and Science Activity organizations, co-sponsors GCOS and other Centre climate-related observing systems such as the United States for the Americas Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) and the Japan for Asia and Oceania Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS). Germany for Europe and Africa

Global Runoff Data Centre Data analysis, processing and Koblenz, Germany (Federal Institute of Hydrology) management and data centres In addition, a number of Member countries, The enormous monitoring activities at the namely: Canada, Germany, Japan, Norway, the international level require extensive data analysis Russian Federation, Switzerland and the United and processing capabilities. To accomplish this States, host calibration centres. important task, several global, regional and national meteorological and hydrological data WMO also publishes, inter alia, centres have been established. In order to ensure the availability of quality-controlled global data • The World Climate Data Information Referral sets for research purposes internationally, a Service (INFOCLIMA), an inventory of over number of countries operate these WMO World 1 250 data-sets descriptions, with reference 9 Data Centres: data held by more than 300 centres in over 125 countries; and Climate data • The Hydrological Information Referral Asheville, North Carolina, United States Service (INFOHYDRO) that contains Obninsk, Russian Federation information on the global hydrological networks, such as the location of the 478 000 stations the type of stations and the length of record, from a number of national agencies dealing with water resources.

WHYCOS: Meteorological satellite General scheme of data collection and dissemination network

Regional centre WHYCOS hydrological National Hydrological station Service National National Meteorological network GTS Service End users INTERNET dedicated line Figure 1.12—World National Hydrological Cycle Hydrological Observing System Service Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

In order to draw inferences from the large amount regional and national levels and, as agreed, to of meteorological data available, it is important assist other Member countries in the that they meet a minimum set of standards. One of provision of meteorological services in their the important functions of WMO relates to the countries. At the same time, it is understood calibration and comparison of sensors and that Member countries may be justified in meteorological instruments and equipment, the placing conditions on the re-export of such standardization of observing techniques and the data and products for commercial purposes incorporation of new technological developments. outside the receiving country or group of WMO makes arrangements, under the aegis of its countries forming a single economic group, Commission for Instruments and Methods of for reasons relating to national legislation or Observations (CIMO) which groups experts in the costs of production; and field from most countries, for the calibration and • The research and education communities, inter-comparison of instruments, such as for their non-commercial activities, free and pyrheliometers and radiosondes. A number of unrestricted access to all data and products centres around the world, which are either exchanged under the auspices of WMO, with operated or supported by NMHSs, have been the understanding that their commercial designated by WMO for these purposes. activities are subject to the same conditions as above. As for the quality control of various types of observational data, the NMHSs themselves ensure A similar policy has been promulgated by WMO that all observations that are made available are for hydrological data and products (WMO, subjected to quality control. In addition, the 1999b). designated centres including those mentioned above, further carry out quality control. For example, the World Data Centres in Ashville, International cooperation in North Carolina, and Obninsk, Russian Federation, meteorology for services 10 undertake quality control of climate data, thus ensuring coherent, consistent and reliable world The operational systems, described briefly in the data sets upon which much meteorological previous section and coordinated by WMO, are at research and other activities are based. the core of the service that meteorological knowledge and advances in the science contribute to the safety of life and property and International exchange of to the overall welfare of humanity. This is in line meteorological and hydrological with one of the purposes of WMO, namely to further the application of meteorology to data and products aviation, shipping, water issues, agriculture and All activities related to meteorology rest on the other human activities. time-honoured practice within the meteorological community of ensuring the free Today, there are many areas in which exchange of meteorological data and products meteorological phenomena affect us and for which whilst safeguarding the economic concerns of meteorological information and services benefit us nations. WMO is committed to this practice and (Obasi, 2001a). Everyday fluctuations of weather encourages its Member countries to provide and extreme weather or climate events (WMO, 1995, WMO, 1996): (hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, drought, etc.) increasingly impact on the economy, safety, • On a free and unrestricted basis, essential environment, and national security. Longer-term data and products which are necessary for weather patterns such as El Niño and La Niña may the provision of services in support of the affect several countries for an entire season or protection of life and property and the well- more. The impact of weather on everyday life is being of all nations, particularly those basic being felt in many ways: unprecedented mass data and products required to describe and evacuations in the face of hurricanes, food forecast weather and climate, and to support insecurity, poverty, increased flight delays, WMO programmes; fluctuating energy costs and services, and • The additional data and products required to prolonged air pollution episodes and water sustain WMO programmes at the global, shortages. Chapter 1 — WMO History and Activities

Weather and climate information and the Major hurricanes, such as Hurricanes Georges and associated services can be used more effectively to Mitch in the Caribbean in 1998, can set back ensure public safety, an expanding economy, a national economies for several years. For healthier environment, and a greater measure of example, Hurricane David struck the Caribbean national security. For example, it is estimated that Island of Dominica in 1979, but even by 1983 the for the United States, a 20 per cent improvement GDP per capita had not yet recovered to the 1978 in predictions of hurricane landfall, track, and level. In the United States, the 1993 Mississippi intensity could save US$ 80 million per storm, or River floods caused about US$ 18 billion in roughly US$ 500 million annually (Anthes, et al., damages. Moreover, 104 people died in the 2001). A single local utility company can save country last year due to various natural disasters millions of dollars by optimizing energy (Obasi, 2000). India recently experienced production during a balmy winter day (or lose unusually heavy monsoon rains that caused millions by not doing so). To provide effective, flooding in the state of Orissa. Some six million accurate and timely weather and climate services people in about 200 villages were affected by the require a unique national and international event. Also, 39 deaths occurred, 4 000 houses partnership among nations, public and private were destroyed and 18 000 were damaged. enterprises, academia, and the media. The Elsewhere, the Mozambique floods last year were partnership is essential in producing the fed by tropical cyclone Eline that also affected observations and forecasts, distributing this Botswana, Madagascar, Swaziland, South Africa information in specialized ways, developing new and Zimbabwe. It has been reported that much of capabilities and technologies, and training the next the development that Mozambique had achieved generation of researchers and forecasters. These since the end of the civil war in 1992 was swept are essential in the provision of services relating to away by the worst flooding in south-eastern natural disasters, for instance. Africa in the past century. Almost a fifth of the country’s only highway, as well as large sections of railway linking the country to Zimbabwe, were Preparedness against natural destroyed. 11 disasters Extreme meteorological and hydrological events Floods, drought, storms, earthquakes, landslides will continue to have severe negative impacts on and other natural disasters all contribute to an agriculture and food security, water resources, enormous annual toll in terms of human human health, infrastructure as well as on other suffering, loss of lives and property damage. Most key social and economic sectors. Yet technical losses from all natural disasters are means exist, and others are under further meteorologically and hydrologically related. In development from the application of the the past 20 years, natural disasters worldwide sciences, to reduce losses. For instance, improved have killed over three million people (with 90 per forecasting of tropical cyclones with effective cent of the deaths occurring in the developing dissemination of warnings and wider awareness countries), inflicted injuries, facilitated the spread and preparedness of the vulnerable population in of diseases and displaced over one billion people. Bangladesh led to reduction of loss of life — 200 Annual economic losses related to natural deaths in 1994, compared to 13 000 in 1991 and disasters have been estimated at about 300 000 in 1971, for tropical cyclones of similar US$ 50–100 billion globally. Such losses have intensity. The loss of life due to weather- and been increasing, sometimes reaching US$ 440 climate-related disasters has been significantly billion, annually. Tropical cyclones alone account reduced also in the United States; the casualty toll for an annual average of about 20 000 deaths and due to hurricanes was about 8 000 between 1900 about US$ 6 billion in damages globally. Recent and 1910, but at present the casualty rate statistics have also shown that reinsurance claims (Figure 1.13) is very low, in spite of the four-fold related to natural disasters increased three-fold increase in the affected population. Evidence has between the 1960s and the 1980s. The shown that, for every dollar spent on prevention 1997–1998 El Niño event resulted in global socio- and preparedness, about US$ 100 to US$ 1 000 economic losses of more than US$ 96 billion, are needed for an equivalent effort after a disaster with about 110 million people affected has taken place. worldwide. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

10 000 Figure 1.13—The dramatic decrease in hurricane-related 8100 8 000 deaths throughout the USA since 1900, despite tremendous increases 6 000 in the coastal populations, can be attributed to improved forecast 4 000 and warning dissemination systems, as well as to education 2130 programmes for the 2 000 1050 public, local govern- 1050 750 570 ment officials and the 220 226 160 media concerning 0 hazardous weather. 1910 1920 19301940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 (Graphic adapted from the National Weather Service, USA) A number of regional centres have been political instability in some cases. Fresh water has established in the tropical cyclone basins to already become critically scarce; the global mean provide advisories and warnings (Figure 1.14). per capita runoff has shown a decrease by over These include the Miami and the Honolulu 40 per cent since 1970 to 7600 m3 per capita per Hurricane Centres. Prediction and timely early year, most notably in Africa, Asia and Europe. warning systems are indeed vital in all disaster There are now countries that have renewable 12 preparedness programmes. These can also be freshwater resources under 1000 m3 per capita used to improve the safety and efficiency of air, per year, commonly accepted as a benchmark for land and sea transport systems. They are also vital freshwater scarcity. In these water-scarce in enhancing food and agricultural production as countries, competition for water for agricultural, well as in utilizing and managing fresh water, domestic and industrial purposes is clearly energy and other natural resources that are evident. Some estimates suggest that currently, sensitive to extreme weather and climate events. the amount of fresh water available for each person in Africa is about one-quarter of what it In addition, human-induced and other was in 1950, while in Asia and South America, it environmental emergencies, in particular is about one-third. Globally, some 1.2 billion nuclear and chemical accidents, volcanic ash people lack access to safe drinking water and and smoke and haze from forest fires, have close to 2.5 billion are not provided with implications for neighbouring countries. adequate sanitation. At present, water pollution Addressing such situations requires international kills some 25 million people in developing collaboration. WMO’s specialized centres in countries each year, 60 per cent of them Australia, Canada, China, France, Japan, the children. Half the world’s leading diseases are Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, and transmitted by or through water. The inadequacy the United States enable the tracking and in the water supply is getting worse as a prediction of the transboundary movement of consequence of rapid population growth, the offensive substances. expanding urbanization and increased agricultural and industrial use. In 2000, about 300 million Africans lived in a water-scarce Water resources environment. By 2025, the number of countries in Africa that will experience water stress will Freshwater shortage is expected to be the most rise to 18, thus affecting 600 million people dominant water problem of this century and one (WMO, 1997). In the developing countries, it is that, along with water quality, could well estimated that about 17 per cent more water will jeopardize all other efforts to secure sustainable be needed to grow sufficient food and to reduce development. It could even lead to social and hunger. Chapter 1 — WMO History and Activities

A represents the average number of tropical cyclones per year (B is the % total global average) Major cyclone tracks Areas of tropical cyclone formation

Figure 1.14—Areas of formation, frequent tracks and average annual number of tropical cyclones and Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP) regional bodies 13

As a result of difficult economic conditions, insuffi- The World Food Summit (Rome, 1996) called for cient knowledge of the freshwater resources in halving the number of undernourished by 2015. many countries is often at the heart of many water- To achieve this target, a number of measures are related problems. It is therefore important to required both nationally and internationally. address these issues through cooperative research between experts in developed and developing The WMO, through its Agricultural Meteorology countries. In connection with transboundary Programme, contributes to this global waters, it can be noted that there are 261 water- cooperative effort through exchange of sheds that cross the political boundaries of two or information and expertise and helping nations to more countries. These international basins cover develop sustainable and economically viable 45.3 per cent of the Earth’s land surface, affect agricultural systems. The Programme contributes, about 40 per cent of the world’s population and inter alia, to improving prediction, reducing account for approximately 80 per cent of global losses and risks, increasing efficiency in the use of river flow. It is therefore increasingly clear that, in water (especially in semi-arid and desert-prone the area of water resources, more effective interna- areas) and combating drought and desertification. tional cooperation needs to be fostered. For strategic planning and operational purposes, climate information and short-term weather forecasts, as well as seasonal forecasts and climate Food security projections, are essential for agricultural activities and development. These forecasts are based on The United Nations Food and Agricultural international cooperation. Organization (FAO) estimates that nearly 800 million people in 98 nations are not getting enough food to lead normal, healthy and active Services to some other sectors lives. Even in the industrialized nations and the countries in transition, the number of In the transport sector, WMO’s operational undernourished include some 35 million people. systems ensure the availability of up-to-date Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

meteorological information to aviation industry population. While increased efforts will be for the safety and regularity of air navigation and devoted over the coming decades to enhancing of non-real-time activities of the industry. the efficiency of fossil fuels use, it is expected that there will be increased interest in, and use A major contribution is WMO’s support of the of, meteorological data, and long-term and safety of life and property at sea, the protection seasonal forecasts, in optimizing energy of the marine environment and the efficient production and consumption and in generating management of marine resources. This support is renewable energy resources such as wind, based on internationally coordinated activities hydropower and solar energy. related to the collection and distribution of marine weather forecasts, including warnings (some of which relate to storm surges, tsunamis International cooperation for and coastal flooding) as well as oceanographic research data. The constant need to acquire knowledge of In the area of environmental pollution weather and climate processes, and to apply such monitoring, WMO’s international GAW network knowledge to safeguard and improve the human serves as an early warning system to detect way of life, has placed special demands for changes in atmospheric concentration of ozone fundamental and applied research in the science depleting substances, radionuclides and other of meteorology and the advancement of pollutants, acids and toxic chemicals in rain, technologies to meet these demands. To respond atmospheric burden of aerosols and long-range to this requirement, one of the purposes of WMO transport of pollutants. Urban development is specifically refers to encouraging research as intensifying and, at present, about half of the appropriate, in related fields, and to assisting in world population lies in urban areas. The effects the coordination of the international aspects of of urbanization have serious environmental such research (see also Chapter 3). 14 impacts such as higher emissions of pollutants. It is also the urban areas that are most susceptible In this context, one of WMO’s primary roles to air and water pollution, the impact of natural involves the planning, organization and disasters and that of potential climate change. A coordination of international and regional high share of the population in North America research activities. However, actual research is lives in large urban centres. These large carried out by the National Meteorological and population centres may be areas of high risk Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and associated or because warming could lead to problems such as independent research and academic institutions heat stress, water scarcity and intense rainfall. around the world. The various Programmes of Addressing these issues will require not only local WMO not only support, encourage and facilitate climate information but also weather and climate research, they also enable the benefits of research forecasts that are based on international to be shared by the global community (Obasi, cooperation. 2001b).

Human health depends, to a large degree, on weather and climate. Meteorological conditions Early research initiatives are often responsible for transboundary transport of pollutants. Dry spells further decrease the The early history of internationally coordinated availability of water resources, with a consequent meteorological research and in particular impact on health. Extreme meteorological events, international operational experiments is including heat waves, very cold spells, floods and epitomized by the two International Polar Years storms have a direct impact on human health. carried out under the aegis of IMO, the The forecast of these events, as well as climate predecessor of WMO. The First (1882–1983) was a change prediction and the assessment of possible joint effort of 12 nations with the participation of impacts on health, can contribute to a healthier 40 observatories across the world. In the Second population. (1932–1933), 44 nations were involved. Another major international research effort was the The global demand for energy will continue to International Geophysical Year (IGY) planned and rise to meet the needs of a growing world implemented by WMO, in its early years, with the Chapter 1 — WMO History and Activities

International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU). Some recent research initiatives Over 90 countries participated in this effort. The IGY field observational period was from 1 July Spurred on by United Nations resolutions on the 1957 to 31 December 1958. This resulted in an peaceful use of outer space, WMO and ICSU also unprecedented increase in the amount of scientific embarked on one of the most ambitious data for research purposes by covering as much of international scientific undertakings in the history the Earth’s surface as was possible at the time. The of meteorology, if not in the whole field of WMO Secretariat acted as the International Centre geophysical sciences. Launched in 1967, the for the essential IGY meteorological observational Global Atmospheric Research Programme (GARP) data. It collected, collated and published all lasted 15 years, and its field experiments led to meteorological observations. significant progress in meteorology, particularly in relation to weather forecasting. One of its The meteorological programme for the IGY major field experiments, the GARP Atlantic included the increase in the traditional surface Tropical Experiment (GATE) based in Dakar, and upper air observations, the establishment of Senegal in June–September 1974, was permanent stations in the Antarctic, as well as unprecedented in scale and success with the systematic measurements of solar radiation and participation of some 70 countries using 40 atmospheric ozone and the use of high altitude research vessels provided by 9 countries. The rockets in observations. Some of the major crowning achievement of GARP was the Global advances led to the launching of the first Weather Experiment (1978–1979), in which meteorological satellites in the early sixties. M. virtually all National Meteorological Services from Nicolet, the Secretary-General of the Special the 144 countries that were then Members of Committee for the IGY noted that thanks to WMO, space agencies and research institutes, WMO “… the IGY proved to be a sort of melting including Universities, participated. Other field pot from which emerged clear indices for future experiments included the Monsoon Experiments geophysical research”. The IGY was the (1978–1979), which improved forecasting of forerunner of multidisciplinary research among monsoonal circulations, so critical for human 15 the geophysical sciences. The global data well-being and food security in Asia and West collected during IGY enabled the scientific Africa. The last of these was the Alpine progress that was achieved in the late fifties and Experiment in 1982. early sixties in numerical weather prediction, thus expanding the threshold of daily skillful The GARP heralded the development, with WMO forecasts by a few days. This was possible, as playing the coordinating role, of a global satellite- prediction for a longer time period over a given based observing system, an improved area could benefit from data from a wider zone conventional surface-based network and an surrounding the area. Indeed, for this purpose, increase in the use of ocean buoys. It also led to hemispheric and global maps became possible advances in atmospheric modelling and numerical and available on a routine basis through enhanced weather prediction. Figure 1.15 shows the international cooperation. improvement in forecasts of mean sea-level

1.00 24-hr forecast 0.95 48-hr forecast 72-hr forecast 0.90 96-hr forecast

0.85

0.80 Figure 1.15— 0.75 Tendency correlation coefficient from 1968 0.70 to 1992 for forecasts of mean sea-level 0.65 pressure (mslp). Area: 0.60 North Atlantic and 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 19781980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 Europe Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

pressure (mslp) for North Atlantic and Europe determine to what extent climate—and the extent over the period 1968 to 1992. The skill shown in of human influence on climate—can be predicted. two-day forecasts in 1968 was already shown in The programme promotes and organizes a wide four-day forecasts by 1981. A very crucial range of research activities directed towards development resulting from GARP was the understanding the basic physical processes that strengthening of WMO’s World Weather Watch determine the Earth’s climate. This includes stud- (WWW). During and since GARP, the WWW has ies on the interactions between the different been at the core of all WMO’s programmes in components of the climate system, namely the support of operational meteorology and for atmosphere, the oceans and other water bodies, research activities around the world. the land surface, the cryosphere and the biosphere. The WCRP, along with ICSU’s International In addition, a number of other national, regional Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, therefore and global research experiments have been provides the scientific research base for the inter- carried out. Another well-known international national assessments of global climate change experiment was the Precipitation Enhancement carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Project (PEP), carried out in southern Spain, Climate Change (IPCC), established by WMO and whose findings still form the basis of WMO’s United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) position and of continued research in this field. in 1988. Coherent international research efforts on the El Niño phenomenon led to important development Currently WCRP’s major projects, depicted in in seasonal prediction. The study on El Niño was Figure 1.16, include: initiated in the 1970s, largely as a result of the disruptive effects of climate variations in the (a) The Global Energy and Water Cycle Americas. The 1982–1983 event was an impetus Experiment (GEWEX), for studies of the for the organized international monitoring and global hydrological cycle and energy budget research programme that led to the Tropical and their adjustment to global changes; 16 Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) project carried (b) The World Ocean Circulation Experiment out from 1985–1994 under the WMO/IOC/ICSU- (WOCE), to improve understanding of sponsored World Climate Research Programme ocean circulations and processes and the (WCRP). The TOGA project led to unprecedented ocean-climate relationship; progress and to a breakthrough in 1994 in (c) The Climate Variability and Predictability seasonal forecasting. Unlike the 1982–1983 El (CLIVAR) study, involving the interactions Niño which caught scientists by surprise and was between the atmosphere, land surface, not recognised as an El Niño event until it was half oceans and the cryosphere as they respond over, the 1997–1998 El Niño, perhaps the most to natural processes and human influences. severe of the 20th century, was predicted six (CLIVAR is building on the findings of months ahead of time. TOGA and will continue to include improvements in the predictability of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)); The World Climate Research (d) The study of Stratospheric Processes and Programme (WCRP) their Role in Climate (SPARC), investigating the influence of chemical, dynamic and The WCRP is undertaken jointly by WMO, the radiative processes in the stratosphere on Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission climate; (IOC) of the United Nations Educational, Scientific (e) The Arctic Climate System Study (ACSYS), and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), and ICSU investigating the almost closed Arctic (WCRP, 1995). Its activities involve meteorolo- Ocean circulation and related sea-ice gists, oceanographers, environmental satellite interactions and its influence on other specialists, hydrologists and related physical scien- northern oceans. (A most recent decision tists from a wide range of academic and other has been to extend WCRP’s cryosphere institutions, including the NMHSs worldwide. research through a new Climate and WCRP is the main international mechanism which Cryosphere Programme (CLIC), which fosters and coordinates the essential basic physical seeks to provide a globally integrated research on the climate system. It is the key inter- approach to the study of the role of the national scientific programme which seeks to cryosphere in the climatic system); and Chapter 1 — WMO History and Activities

UNESCO INTER- In the process of implementing these major WORLD GOVERNMENTAL INTERNATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL OCEANOGRAPHIC projects, the WCRP has contributed substantially COUNCIL ORGANIZATION COMMISSION FOR SCIENCE National National to developments in global and regional climate Research Institutions Meteorological Oceanographic and University models which allow for improved climate and Services and the Research Groups Hydrological Services Oceanographic predictions. Observed large-scale temperature Community features and, to a lesser extent, precipitation patterns, are now reasonably well represented in models (Figure 1.17). GLOBAL ENERGY CLIMATE SYSTEM AND MODELLING WATER CYCLE WCRP The success of WCRP depends primarily on the EXPERIMENT ARCTIC CLIMATE (GEWEX) SYSTEM STUDY widest possible participation and contributions (ACSYS) from most nations. First and foremost, the

WORLD OCEAN CLIMATE STRATOSPHERIC operational meteorological and other data CIRCULATION VARIABILITY AND PROCESSES AND routinely collected by NMHSs are the basis for all EXPERIMENT PREDICTABILITY THEIR ROLE IN (WOCE) (CLIVAR) CLIMATE (SPARC) important climatological data sets and climate diagnostics. NMHSs are also well placed to take a Figure 1.16—World Climate Research leading role in organizing intensive field studies in Programme (Source: WCRP, 1996) support of WCRP and other research programmes, in particular continental-scale (f) Climatic system modelling, the essential experiments designed to monitor the energy unifying theme through which the WCRP budget and hydrological cycle and exchanges ensures that the scientific and technical with the land surface over large natural drainage advances in the main WCRP projects are areas such as those being conducted or planned incorporated into improved climate over the Mississippi River basin, the Canadian models. (In addition, WCRP also engages in Arctic, the Baltic Sea, Amazonia, various sites 29 intercomparison of climate model throughout Asia and, most recently, the Sahel results which support the scientific region of west Africa. 17 assessment of climate change undertaken by the IPCC.)

(a) Observed surface temperature (°C) December–February (c) Observed precipitation rate (mm/day) June–August

(b) Model average surface air temperature (d) Model average precipitation rate

Figure 1.17—The geographic distribution of December to February observed surface temperature (a); June to August observed precipitation (c); compared respectively to (b) and (d) which were simulated by comprehensive coupled models of the type used for climate prediction (Source: IPCC, 2001) Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

World Weather Research global average surface temperature increased Programme during the 20th century by 0.6 ±0.2°C. North America has warmed by about 0.7°C during the past century, and precipitation has increased; High impact weather phenomena such as torna- but both trends are heterogeneous. New does are economically disruptive, and accurate analyses of proxy data for the Northern and timely prediction of these phenomena can Hemisphere indicate that the increase in lead to increased safety and security. While these temperature in the 20th century is likely to have events are generally of national interest, they may been the largest of any century during the past also have implications for neighbouring coun- 1000 years. Likewise, the atmospheric tries. For longer term preparedness it is essential concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) has to make use of global forecast models. WMO’s increased by 31 per cent since 1750 (Figure World Weather Research Programme provides, 1.18). Tide-gauge data show that global average inter alia, the integration of weather-prediction- sea-level rose between 0.1 and 0.2 metres. The research advances, achieved through transform- TAR emphasized that “there is new and stronger ing relevant national and international pro- evidence that most of the warming observed grammes into operational forecasts. over the past 50 years is attributable to human activities”. Climate models developed at various centres indicate that global average temperature Climate change and sea-level are projected to rise under all IPCC scenarios. The globally averaged surface During the late 1960s and early 1970s, a number temperature is projected to increase by of unprecedented droughts—especially that of 1.4–5.8°C between 1990 and 2100. It is very the Sahel in West Africa—raised concern about likely that nearly all land areas will warm more global climate change. The work of an rapidly than the global average, particularly international expert team led WMO to issue in those at northern high latitudes in the cold 18 1976 the first ever authoritative statement on season. Most notable of these is the warming in potential climate change. This concern spurred the northern regions of North America, and the development of climate models based on northern and central Asia, which exceeds global progress in numerical weather prediction mean warming by more than 40 per cent. For a (NWP), leading to advances in seasonal range of emission scenarios, model results prediction and in long-term climate projection suggest that North America could warm by used in climate change studies (see also 1–3°C over the next century for a low emission Chapter 6). case. Warming could be as much as 3.5–7.5°C for the higher emission case. Such studies are being carried out through the interdisciplinary science assessment work of the Global mean sea-level is projected to rise by IPCC, based partly on the work of the WCRP. 0.09–0.88 metres between 1990 and 2100. The Following its earlier Assessment Reports in 1992 prospect of rising sea level is one of the most and 1995 (IPCC, 1995a,b), the IPCC recently widely recognized potential impacts of climate issued its Third Assessment Report (TAR) (IPCC change. Sea-level rise as well as climate and 2001a,b,c), based on the work of over 2 500 weather extremes cause problems associated experts from various disciplines and from all with beach erosion, infrastructure, fresh water parts of the world. The IPCC process, which is salinization, siltation of waterways and flood risk rigorous, transparent, multidisciplinary and truly in coastal communities. international, ensures the authoritativeness and general acceptance of its findings. The following In North America, more than 65 per cent of observations and projections made by IPCC people live in coastal communities. A study of the would not have been possible without impact on the United States of the increase of sea international cooperation. levels through 2065 found losses of US$ 370 million for dryland and US$ 893 million for Based on data from WMO, 1990s is reckoned to wetlands. Human society may be adversely be the warmest decade, 1998 the warmest year, affected by reductions in crop yields, decreased and 2001 the second warmest since water availability, greater exposure to vector- and instrumental recording began in 1861. The water-borne diseases, and increased flooding. Chapter 1 — WMO History and Activities

Figure 1.18—Records of changes in Carbon dioxide 1.5 atmospheric 360 concentrations of CO , 2 340 1.0 CH4 and N2O. These gases are well mixed 320 (ppm) throughout the globe 0.5 2 300 and all three records show effects of the CO 280 0.0 increasing growth in 260 anthropogenic emissions during the ) on –2 Industrial Era. The i estimated positive 1750 Methane 0.5 radiative forcing of Wm 0.4 ( the climate system 1500 g from these gases is 0.3 (ppb) indicated on the right- 1250 4

c concentrat 0.2 hand scale. i CH 1000 er

h 0.1 750 0.0 tmosp Radiative forcin A 0.15 310 Nitrous oxide 0.10 19 290 (ppb) 0.05

O 2

N 270 0.0

250 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Year

Further research is also required to Meteorology in support of strengthen future assessments and to reduce international policy-making uncertainties so that sufficient information is available for policy-making at regional and In the United Nations Millennium Declaration local levels (Obasi, 1997). Moreover, there is (New York, 2000), the Heads of State and a need to explore further the potentials of Government, have reaffirmed “…our faith in the both technological and social options by Organization and its Charter as indispensable region, country and sector; to analyse the foundations of a more peaceful, prosperous and economic, social and institutional issues just world…We will spare no effort to make the limiting climate-change mitigation in all United Nations a more effective instrument for countries; to improve means of assessing the pursuing all of these priorities: the fight for potential and cost of mitigation options; and development for all the peoples of the world, the to improve methods of evaluating mitigation fight against poverty, ignorance and disease; the options in the context of development, fight against injustice; the fight against violence, sustainability and equity. This will require terror and crime; and the fight against the further enhanced cooperation among the degradation and destruction of our common scientists and policy makers world-wide. home” (United Nations, 2000). Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

This statement can be taken as a recognition of associating as widely as possible with the UN the role of international cooperation for the system organizations as well as with related welfare of humankind, such as in the protection scientific institutions, universities, non- of the global commons, including air, ocean and governmental organizations, the private sector water. The WMO has been supportive of global and the media. This unique network ensures that efforts in providing data on, and assessments of, most of the individuals and institutions involved the scientific aspects of atmospheric in meteorology or related activities share a environmental issues, culminating in the common sense of belonging and commitment to adoption of conventions of significance to a global meteorological community. In this way, international environmental governance. meteorology is able to respond in a timely and flexible manner to the expectations of all sectors Indeed, the various environmental conventions, of socio-economic activities at national and global namely the Vienna Convention on the Protection levels. of the Ozone Layer, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the In the context of the UN system at the regional Convention on Biological Diversity and the level, a number of mechanisms ensures Convention to Combat Desertification, are the coordination in various areas such as climate, fruits of global efforts supported by water resources, ocean affairs, disaster mitigation meteorological observations. In addition, there and pollution control. For example, WMO are specific contributions from various parts of collaborates with the UN Economic Commission the UN system, such as the Food and Agriculture for Europe (ECE) on the Convention on Long- Organization (FAO) through its programmes on range Air Pollution and with the UN Economic land use and degradation, desertification, Commission for Africa (ECA) in the area of water deforestation, and effects of fertilizers on resources assessment, and in the establishment environment; and the United Nations and operation of the African Centre of Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization Meteorological Applications for Development 20 (UNESCO) (and its Intergovernmental (ACMAD) located in Niamey, Niger. Oceanographic Commission (IOC)) through its Man and the Biosphere Programme, ocean A major thrust of WMO is its cooperation with monitoring and research. Certainly, the United regional economic communities such as the Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has also Economic Community of West African States been playing a significant role. (ECOWAS), the Southern African Development Community (SADC),the South Pacific Regional Some other international policies, decisions, Environment Programme (SPREP) and the recommendations and events have benefited also Caribbean Meteorological Organization (CMO). from meteorological input. These include Agenda Such cooperation has been beneficial to the 21, the action plan of the United Nations communities in ensuring that meteorological Conference on Environment and Development factors are taken into account in their policies (Brazil 1992), which will be reviewed at the and programmes. WMO also assists them in the World Summit on Sustainable Development establishment of relevant regional centres such (Johannesburg, South Africa, August/September as the SADC Drought Monitoring Centre in 2002), the World Food Summit, the Habitat II and Harare, Zimbabwe. One of the mainstays of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. WMO’s Programmes and activities are the technical commissions which groups experts from most countries. A number of these experts Cooperation with other belong to academic and research institutions, organizations and bodies thereby associating these national and international bodies in cooperating with the The previous section highlights a few areas of wider community in the areas dealt with by the international cooperation primarily among the commissions, namely, basic systems, organizations of the UN system, resulting in the instruments and methods of observation, development and implementation of well known hydrology, atmospheric sciences, aeronautical international policy instruments. However, the meteorology, agricultural meteorology, success of the many initiatives in the field of oceanography and marine meteorology, and meteorology is based on WMO’s commitment in climatology. Chapter 1 — WMO History and Activities

In addition, WMO maintains contact with universi- industry and the tourism sector through the ties in the context of its education and training World Tourism Organization. WMO also gives programme (for example, curricula development) priority attention to its cooperation with the as well as its research programmes. For example, media. In this context the Organization maintains the Meteorology Department of the University of close contact with international media groups Nairobi is one of the components of the Regional such as the International Association of Broadcast Meteorological Training Centre (RMTC) located in Meteorologists. Kenya (see Chapter 11.1). Students from various parts of the world are offered fellowships at Florida State University in Tallahassee, USA. The International dimensions of International Research Institute for Climate human resources development Prediction (IRI) of Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of the Columbia Earth Institute of in meteorology Columbia University collaborates closely with WMO’s Education and Training WMO, especially in the implementation of relevant components of WMO’s Climate Information Programme (ETRP) and Prediction Services (CLIPS) project. Among other things, CLIPS aims at developing new meth- As mentioned earlier, among the primary aims of ods, techniques and products in response to the WMO are to encourage training in meteorology needs of users from a variety of socio-economic and operational hydrology, and to assist in coordi- sectors, including agriculture, water resources, nating the international aspects of such training human health and renewable energy, with particu- (see Chapter 10). The tremendous advances in the lar emphasis on seasonal prediction of the El science of meteorology, hydrology and other Niño/La Niña phenomena and their global related geophysical sciences, as well as the associ- impacts. In this regard, a series of climate outlook ated technological developments, require fora has been organized in various parts of the continuous and substantial education and training world and has involved a wide range of users. One efforts. The ETRP is designed to assist in the devel- 21 of the most fruitful collaborations of WMO has opment of the required personnel in the NMHSs of been with the non-governmental International Member countries, as well as to support the scien- Council for Science (ICSU), which brings together tific and technical programmes of WMO. For this natural scientists from national scientific research purpose, it reviews human resources development councils or science academies and universities as globally, advises on all aspects of training in meteo- well as international scientific unions. ICSU rology and operational hydrology, offers provides a wide spectrum of scientific expertise, fellowships, supports training events and main- enabling it to address major international multidis- tains contacts and collaboration with relevant ciplinary issues which none could handle alone. Universities. The Programme also supports a The cooperation between WMO and ICSU has led network of 23 Regional Meteorological Training to the successful International Geophysical Year Centres (RMTCs) around the world, as shown in (IGY), GARP and the World Climate Research Figure 1.19 Programme (WCRP) These countries all agree to take students from WMO has also been co-sponsoring the activities countries within and sometimes outside the of national meteorological societies such as the region to study at their respective institutions. American Meteorological Society and the This again emphasizes the spirit of international Argentinean Meteorological Congress, as well as cooperation being fostered by WMO. regional societies such as the African Meteorological Society and the Latin American As discussed in the previous sections, and Iberian Meteorological Congress. meteorology is essential to a very wide range of human activities. As an indication, the career WMO has also been collaborating with the choices in the US for the period 1997–1999 are industry, especially those involved in the given in the Table below (AMS, 2000). The manufacturing of meteorological and hydrological growing opportunities for meteorologists in the instruments and equipment. Other groups from broader environmental and private sectors are the private sector with whom WMO has been evident. This appears to be the trend cooperating include, among others, the insurance internationally as well. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

Figure 1.19— Regional Meteorological Training Centres

San José

Belem

Buenos Aires

AGRYMET and EAMAC

The international dimension of Service of Canada, has recently been involved in national initiatives activities to enhance meteorological education in universities and Meteorological Services The recognition of the international dimension of throughout the world. national initiatives relating to human resources development can be seen from two meteorology- The UCAR is a non-profit corporation formed in related activities in the USA namely the 1959 by U.S. research institutions with doctoral Cooperative Programme for Meteorological programmes in the atmospheric and related Education and Training (COMET) and the sciences. Its mission is to support, enhance, and University Corporation for Atmospheric Research extend the capabilities of the university 22 (UCAR) (AMS, 2000). community, nationally and internationally; to understand the behaviour of the atmosphere and COMET contributes toward improved service at related systems and the global environment; and the national level and benefits from and to foster the transfer of knowledge and contributes to the international infrastructure. technology for the betterment of life on Earth. During the 1980s, the U.S. National Weather The UCAR supplies real-time weather data to Service (NWS) embarked on a major colleges and universities for use in the classroom, modernization programme. As a key part of this trains weather forecasters in the latest research effort, NWS management emphasized results and technologies, and helps organize strengthening the professional preparation and international experiments in remote areas of the current qualifications of operational world, among other services. UCAR maintains meteorologists to apply mesoscale data resources such as state-of-the-art computer effectively. A second goal was to accelerate the models of weather and climate, radars and aircraft incorporation of research findings into that are used by scientists around the world. operational practices. The COMET Program was originally envisioned as a broad effort to effect meteorological education and training in the United States. However, the programme funded [The latter part of this address appears in by various agencies, including the Meteorological Chapter 14 on the Future of WMO.] Chapter 1 — WMO History and Activities

WMO’s contributions to the development of meteorology

Excerpts from keynote lecture on the occasion of the Sir Gilbert Walker Memorial Lecture and Award Ceremony (New Delhi, India, 20 March 2001)

International Strategy for 1999, an IDNDR Forum, held in Geneva and Disaster Reduction (ISDR) sponsored by WMO, adopted a Strategy for a Safer World for the Twenty-first Century, which At the international level, the World Weather was later adopted by the UN General Assembly in Watch (WWW) provided a useful framework for the form of the International Strategy for Disaster National Meteorological and Hydrological Reduction (ISDR), to succeed the IDNDR as from Services National Meteorological and January 2000 (Obasi, 1999). Hydrological Services (NMHSs) to formulate and implement the programmes and activities of the ISDR builds on the network and the experience International Decade for Natural Disaster accumulated during the IDNDR, but adopts a Reduction (IDNDR) which was launched on different approach. ISDR will focus on assisting 1 January 1990. Besides the IDNDR-related national authorities, local communities and civil activities within several of its programmes, WMO society, on which the successful implementation implemented special projects aimed specifically of the Strategy largely depends. The priority areas at achieving the goals of the IDNDR. WMO took identified for the implementation relevant to an active part in the preparation and WMO include: early warning, El Niño and La Niña deliberations of the World Conference on Natural phenomena, and climate variability and change. 23 Disaster Reduction (Yokohama, May 1994), WMO’s existing programmes enable it to which marked the mid-point of the IDNDR. The continue to support the NMHSs and to contribute Conference adopted the Yokohama Strategy for a concretely by addressing many of these areas Safer World, which was subsequently endorsed which fall within its mandate. In particular, WMO by the UN General Assembly. has been designated as the lead agency in matters related to climate variability and change and to El At its fifty-second session (December 1997), the Niño/La Niña phenomena. UN General Assembly adopted a resolution establishing an Inter-Agency Task Force on El Niño. WMO has the lead role in providing scientific input to the resulting study. In July

Drought 22% Tropical cyclones 30%

Earthquakes 10% Other disasters 6% Floods 32% Famine/ SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE food shortage 4% Tropical cyclones Epidemics Tropical cyclones 20% 17% 19% Drought 33% Landslides 7%

Storms 6% Drought 3% Earthquakes Floods Figure 1.20—Major Other Floods 4% 32% Earthquakes 26% disasters 13% Other disasters disasters of the world 7% 9% (1960–1999) PERSONS AFFECTED NUMBER OF DEATHS Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development Development in seasonal Seasonal prediction of Indian predictions summer monsoon

Since the establishment of the World Climate Seasonal prediction of monsoon, which affects Research Programme (WCRP) in 1979 by WMO, the Indian subcontinent as well as Africa, the programme has been the mainstay for Australia, East and South-East Asia and parts of significant improvement in the understanding of America, is an important scientific problem the global climate system and for a number of which has vital socio-economic ramifications. In initiatives in the climate area. Following its fact amongst the objectives of the National establishment, WMO invited ICSU to co-sponsor Meteorological Services of India, established in the programme. In the early 1990s, the 1875, is the need to undertake a systematic study Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of weather and climate in the sub-continent and (IOC) of the United Nations Educational, apply that knowledge for issuing forecasts and Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) warnings against the tropical cyclones and other also decided to co-sponsor the programme which severe weather events and to provide long-range has consistently benefited from the active forecasts of seasonal rainfall during the summer support of the NMHSs. The WCRP makes it monsoon season. The first operational long-range feasible to implement a wide range of functions, forecast of summer monsoon rainfall was issued from the collection, processing and dissemination in 1886, using the relationship between the of climate and proxy data, to the forecasting of Himalayan snowfall during the winter/spring and seasonal and interannual climate variations, along the rainfall during the following summer with detection of human-induced climate change monsoon season (Blanford, 1884). and projection of future climate and its changes and impacts for several decades ahead (Obasi, Studies by Sir Gilbert Walker led to the 2000b). WMO coordinates, in conjunction with development of statistical techniques for long- 24 other international organizations, the activities of range forecasting of monsoon rainfall over the Member countries in all these domains. WMO Indian sub-continent using global, atmospheric also leads the Climate Agenda, an integrating and oceanic parameters (Walker, 1924 a, b). framework of international climate related Indian summer monsoon shows considerable programmes in which UNEP, IOC, the United interannual and inter-seasonal variability, and Nations Food and Agriculture Organization years of droughts and floods have occurred (FAO), the World Health Organization (WHO) occasionally in successive years (1917 and 1918, and ICSU participate. 1987 and 1988). On the other hand, monsoons are a quasi-global perturbation in the general Over the last decade, a new era has dawned for circulation of the atmosphere, and understanding seasonal and climate prediction, following the of its regional characteristics over Africa, China, success of the WCRP Tropical Ocean and Global India and in other parts of the world affected by Atmosphere (TOGA) project (1985-1994). This the monsoon regime need constant effort. Thus project led to the establishment of the scientific the forecasting of monsoon rains on different basis for skillful predictions of the El Niño sea- space and time scales is a challenging task. In surface temperature anomalies and associated recent years, considerable knowledge has been changes in the atmospheric circulation on multi- acquired and is being used in respect of El seasonal to interannual time-scales (Figure 1.21). Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and their Such information is used in disaster preparedness global influence in modulating the rainfall and in those parts of the world where El Niño signals circulation in the tropics. Since the pioneering are strong, and in developing consensus regional studies by Walker and the discovery of ‘southern climate outlooks. In support of these efforts, the oscillation’, scientists have studied the various objective of the WMO Climate Information and facets of monsoon variability including its Prediction Services (CLIPS) project is to enhance seasonal predictability using statistical, synoptic, the capacity of the NMHSs in making maximum climatological and dynamical techniques (Shukla use of advances in climate science, including the and Mooley, 1987). development of operational climate prediction (Figure 1.22). Chapter 1 — WMO History and Activities

SIGNIFICANT CLIMATE ANOMALIES AND EPISODIC EVENTS IN 2000 Wet and stormy Sep.–Dec. Dry Apr.–Dec. Very dry Feb.–July Wettest autumn on record in Wales, England and south-east Norway; <60% of normal precipitation; U.S.A. winter 1999–2000: 400–1250mm surpluses in Alps, southern Sweden and north-west Spain; and summer heat wave 100–500mm deficits Bitterly cold 200–500mm deficits in much warmest on record (105 years) severe Oct. alpine floods Jan.–Feb. of south-west Japan Late Dec. cold, snow and floods across Europe Numerous wildfires U.S.A. late 2000: Deficits up to 500–700mm Crop and and the Korean Peninsula coldest Nov.-Dec. on record in Romania and Hungary livestock losses Stormy Feb.–Mar. Dry Jan.–Apr. Another wet year Continental U.S.A. wildfires: Persistent snow cover Several sites Dry and warm Jan.–Oct. Induced by La Niña largest area burned since 1988 Long-term 200-500mm Warm Scattered 100–400mm deficits drought persists below normal most Oct. 1998–Dec. 2000 Long-term drought Surpluses include: 500–1675mm of year Jan. 1999–Oct. 2000: Warm Jan.–Oct. below normal for Dry June–July ° ° 500–3875mm, Philippines; Crop stress 2 –4 C <30% of normal in northern Iran 500–2150mm, southern Temperatures May 1998–Dec. 2000 Sunniest year above 1°–3°C above normal on record reported Widespread crop, food, and eastern Indonesia; normal and hydrologic impacts 250–1775mm, northern Australia; (73 years) 200-3950mm, central and south-west Viet Nam; Warm and dry Feb.–July Wet and cool 250-1925mm, western Indonesia Wildfires and crop stress May–Sep. and southern Thailand Extensive Warm Mar.–Aug. airport delays ° ° Record rain and 2 –3 C above normal floods early Nov. Michael (Oct.) Daily totals up Very wet Sep. to 700mm “End of Millennium” Record rainfall Snow (15–65cm) to 500mm above normal Very hot and dry Dec. snow Jan. snowstorm (20–55cm) July–Sep. and ice Severe Oct. flood Saomai (Sep.) Crop stress Drier than Super Typhoon and wildfires Another active normal Prapiroon (Aug.–Sep.) hurricane season Beryl (Aug.) May–Oct. Bilis (Aug.) Super Typhoon (4th in 5 years) Debbie Deadly cold Xangsane (Oct.) Helene & Gordon (Aug.) 13 landfalling tropical (Sep.) Alberto (Aug.) spell 03B Summer 3rd longest-lived Jan.–Feb. (Nov.) Bebinca cyclones on Heavy rain and floods Dry Jan.–May (Oct.) Asian mainland floods storm in Atlantic Wet Oct.–Nov. May–June 100–500mm below normal Basin records 300-525mm surplus (Viet Nam through Keith (Oct.) in Kenya and adjacent areas in eastern sections the Korean Peninsula) Jan. 1998–May 2000 Food shortages reported Leon-Eline severe drought Hudah (Feb.) Wet Aug.–Sep. (Apr.) Steve (Feb.–Mar.) 930–2400mm below Wet Jan.–Aug. 3 to 7 times normal normal rainfall; 300–850mm surpluses at many locations Sam (Dec.) slow improvement in some areas Warm most of year Gloria cat. 5 Nov. flooding June–Oct. ° ° Cold most of year 1 –3 C above normal (Mar.) 1°–2°C below normal Cold June–July Wet Jan.– Apr. Numerous all-time record lows 200–650mm above normal in north and interior sections Wet June–Sep. Dry Jan.–Feb. Dry Jan.–Aug. 150–430mm above normal 100–225mm below normal Long-term drought in western half Crop damage reported Cold most of year since 1996 ° ° Wet Mar.–Dec. 1 –2 C below normal Wet Feb.–early Apr. Most sites 200–500mm above normal; Very dry Apr.–Nov. Widespread surpluses >200mm; 500–1500mm surpluses in Record and near-record 300–725mm above normal (with serious flooding) southern and south-west Uruguay dryness widespread and adjacent Argentina in southern Mozambique, southern Zimbabwe 25 and north-east South Africa Source: Climate Prediction Center, NOAA, USA

Figure 1.21—Significant climatic anomalies and episodic events during 2000

Bridging the gap CLIPS historical past near future INFORMATION PREDICTION centuries decades years months days days months years The climate record0 0 The climate future

Figure 1.22—CLIPS uses advances in climate science for operational climate prediction for long-term planning.

Pollution and the potential impact of climate Addressing global freshwater change on water resources, as well as conflicts needs between countries that share basins and aquifers, will be some of the major water-related issues of Freshwater resources around the world are under the 21st century. It is estimated that, by the year stress due to increasing demands from various 2025, about two-thirds of the world’s population sectors and activities such as municipalities, may well face moderate-to-severe water stress agriculture, industry and hydropower generation. (Figure 1.23). Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

4 500 Figure 1.23—Global

Surplus freshwater 4 000 Marginal vulnerability 3 500 Stressed Scarce 3 000

2 500

2 000

Population (million) 1 500

1 000

500

0 1990 2025 2025–Climate change Year

WMO’s Hydrology and Water Resources Summit later that year. The 1990s saw the Programme (HWRP) has therefore great launching of a new initiative of the World relevance from an economic, social or Hydrological Cycle Observing System (WHYCOS) environmental perspective. WMO’s predecessor, by which WMO supports the collection and the IMO, developed in 1946 the first international dissemination of water-related data and programme in the field of hydrometeorology. It information from an integrated system of regional also played a pioneering role in developing and and global networks of observing stations, using standardizing the observational procedure and modern technology. All such efforts will have to practices in this field. In 1972, WMO established be maintained and reinforced in the future 26 a programme on operational hydrology, and has (Obasi, 1997b). since then continued to play a key role in helping many countries in augmenting and improving WMO has been very active in UN inter-agency their hydrological observing system. including activities in the water sector, emphasizing the stream flow measurements. It also encouraged need to assess and monitor freshwater resources and supported the training of hydrologists, and forecast their future state. WMO and especially in the field of flood forecasting and UNESCO played a major part in preparing a warning systems. comprehensive assessment of the world’s freshwater resources and publishing the final The publication of WMO’s Guide to report that was submitted to the UN General Hydrometeorological Practices in 1965, later Assembly in 1997. The report received wide revised as WMO Guide to Hydrological recognition among both scientists and policy Practices, are used by the NMHSs of different makers. It provided a comprehensive summary of countries to ensure that internationally the status of supply, availability and use of compatible data sets on water resources are freshwater resources, together with an outlook available for exchange and application to socio- for the next 30 years. The report also included economic planning and research, particularly in policy options for different categories of developing countries, in order to achieve a countries. rational management of their resources. WMO has also been instrumental in encouraging the collection of data relevant for water quality Research monitoring. As noted above, many of the improvements in the As an input into the United Nations Conference weather prediction have been associated with on Environment and Development (UNCED) GARP which has made an impressive process, WMO in 1992 convened the contribution to the understanding of atmospheric International Conference on Water and the processes. For example, new insights have been Environment, in Dublin, which acted as the gained with regard to the monsoon and the preparatory meeting on fresh water for the Earth advancement of weather prediction, through a Chapter 1 — WMO History and Activities series of regional and global experiments While improvements in the quality and the including the GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment extension of the range of NWP products were (GATE, 1974), the first GARP Global Experiment achieved by many Regional and World (FGGE, 1978/79), the West African Monsoon Meteorological Centres of the WMO’s WWW, a Experiment (WAMEX 1978) and the Monsoon number of countries, including India, developed Experiment (MONEX, 1979). These experiments their own capability to prepare the required have contributed to the remarkable achievements forecasts. Bearing in mind the progress in that have moved the time-scale of skillful weather weather prediction, a new initiative — the World forecasts, using Numerical Weather Prediction Weather Research Programme (WWRP) — was (NWP) up to over seven days in midlatitudes launched by WMO. The concept of the (Figure 1.24). Also significant advances have been programme is to develop improved and more made in mesoscale and limited-area modelling, cost-effective forecasting techniques, with leading to improved understanding and emphasis on predicting high-impact weather and forecasting of local and regional severe weather to promote the application of the technologies hazards. However, there is scope for improving among Member countries. the performance of NWP techniques in some regions of the world such as the tropics, where the networks of conventional surface and upper- air observations are currently sparse.

500 hPa GEOPOTENTIAL SCORE REACHES 60.00 ANOMALY CORRELATION FORECAST SCORE REACHES 60.00 MA N. HEM LAT 20.000 TO 90.000 LON -180.000 TO 180.000

Forecast day MA = 12 Month Moving Average 10 27

4 1980 1981 1982 19831984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 19911992 1993 1994 1995 Figure 1.24—Forecast Forecast day MA = 12 Month Moving Average range at which the 10 monthly-mean 500 hPa height anomaly 9 correlation reaches the 60 per cent value, 8 plotted for each month

from 1980 to 1995 7 (dashed) and for 12-

month running means 6 (solid). The upper panel

is for the extratropical 5 northern hemisphere and the lower panel is 4 for Europe. 1980 1981 1982 19831984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 19911992 1993 1994 1995 Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

Technical cooperation and institutions in support of the NMHSs. These capacity building efforts will be actively pursued in the new millennium. The distribution of VCP assistance by National Meteorological Services the world over sector is shown in Figure 1.25. have generally grown in response to the demands placed on them by the socio-economic activities of their respective countries. Thus in the second Education and training half of the 20th century a large number of Meteorological Services evolved in the Closely associated with capacity-building efforts developing countries primarily to meet the is WMO’s Education and Training Programme demands of the aviation community. Since its (ETRP), which facilitates the human resource inception, WMO had made a constant endeavour development of NMHSs. During the last decade to bridge the gap between the services of (1990 to 1999) more than 3 000 training developing and developed countries through fellowships, comprising about 22 000 staff- international cooperation, including capacity months, were offered for studies at national building and technology transfer (Obasi, 1998). meteorological educational institutions of Members or at one of WMO’s 23 Regional Meteorological Training Centres (RMTCs), one of Technical cooperation which is hosted by the Indian Meteorological Department in Pune and New Delhi. The RMTCs Over the last 50 years, WMO has seen its have played an active role in generating high- membership grow from 30 to 185, with countries quality trained professionals throughout the in Africa, Eastern and Central Europe and the developing world. Several Southwest Pacific joining the Organization. WMO has provided active support to the development of them have become Directors of their of their NMHSs, both in terms of infrastructure respective NMHSs. The centres have also been 28 and human resources. In the last decade, WMO instrumental in enhancing the capabilities of has implemented programmes worth US$ 200 NMHSs through the expertise and experiences of million in support of technical and regional such trained professionals. Within this development projects which have contributed to Programme, WMO has implemented in the last enhancing the capacities of NMHSs. In this decade about 20 training events per year and has context, WMO has also established the Voluntary co-sponsored a similar number of training events Cooperation Programme (VCP), which has in meteorology and operational hydrology continued to support the various programmes of organized by other institutions or agencies. The WMO. WMO also strengthened its Regional India Meteorological Department has also Programme and established Regional and contributed to this effort through VCPs to several Subregional Offices to bring the Organization countries, by offering fellowships and equipment. closer to its Members, so that they can benefit To meet future challenges, WMO has continually further from WMO programmes and activities reviewed the curricula and classification of (Obasi, 2000a). WMO is in the process of meteorological personnel and provided guidance establishing a Subregional Office for Asia in the and relevant materials for the training of Region. It has also promoted closer collaboration meteorologists and operational hydrologists, to with regional economic groupings and funding further promote the capacity of NMHSs.

Surface observing Meteorological applications stations 6.5% Upper-air observing GAW and environment activities 21.5% stations 19.0% protection activities 0.3%

Hydrological activities 5.0% Satellite receiving stations 8.4%

CLICOM and climatological Figure 1.25— activities 13.0% Distribution of VCP

Research and training Data processing Telecommunication assistance by sector centre activities 0.6% systems 7.1% systems 18.6% 1995–1999 Chapter 1 — WMO History and Activities

Statement on the occasion of the 150th Anniversary of the Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics of Austria

(Vienna, Austria, 4 October 2001)

It is indeed an honour and a privilege for me to (NMHSs) of its Member countries, which have address this ceremony commemorating the 150th increased from 30 at the time of its establishment Anniversary of the Institute for Meteorology and to 185 today. In this spirit, the celebration of the Geodynamics of Austria. I am thankful to 50th Anniversary of WMO was also a tribute to Professor Dr. Peter Steinhauser for his kind the Institute and other similar institutions invitation to participate in this historic event and worldwide that have contributed in various ways for the hospitality accorded to me since my to the successful implementation of WMO’s arrival. On behalf of the World Meteorological programmes and activities. Organization (WMO), the world meteorological community, and on my own, I am pleased to The Institute, founded in 1851 by Emperor Franz congratulate the Government and people of Josef of Austria, following a proposal from the Austria and the Central Institute for Meteorology Imperial Academy of Sciences, is probably the and Geodynamics for reaching this major world’s first autonomous Meteorological Service. milestone in the history of the Institute. The presence of His Excellency the Federal President However, the origin of the Institute can be traced of the Republic of Austria and of His Excellency to the first records of simple visual observations the Minister of Education, Science and Culture are of weather phenomena dating back to the 16th 29 further expressions of the recognition of the role century. Regular observations using instruments and contributions of the Institute to the socio- began as early as 1654 in Innsbruck. The oldest economic development of Austria. It further continuously reporting meteorological station in assures us of the unflinching support and operation today started in 1763 at the Benedictine commitment of the Government to the Monastery of Kremsmünster. One of the pupils of development of the Institute and to its the Monastery was Carl Kreil, who in 1848 commitment to international cooperation in launched the meteorological activities of the meteorology. I therefore wish to take this Imperial Academy of Sciences that led to the opportunity to commend the Government for its creation of the Institute. The Institute’s outstanding contribution over the years, through programme was comprehensive and included the Institute, to the sciences of meteorology, observations in meteorology, biometeorology, hydrology and the environment, and to the phenology, and geophysics including programmes and activities of WMO. In addition, geomagnetism, seismology and chemistry of the the presence of a number of Permanent atmosphere. He was the first director of the Representatives of Member countries of WMO, on Institute (1851–1862) and was at the same time this auspicious occasion, is a further testimony to appointed professor of “Earth physics” at the the recognition of the Institute’s contribution to University of Vienna. This tradition of combining international cooperation in the field of theory with operations has been an essential geosciences. This event is of particular feature of meteorology ever since. We therefore significance to WMO which, last year, celebrated salute the President of the Austrian Academy of the 50th anniversary of the entry into force of its Sciences and the Rector of the University of Convention on 23 March 1950. Over the years, Vienna for this foresightedness and synergy. the Organization has served as a steadfast tower of strength and a source of encouragement and The early years of the Institute were marked by an support for the promotion of meteorology and expansion of the observational network of hydrology in the service of humankind and, in meteorological stations; the conduct of the first particular, for the strengthening of the National geomagnetic survey in Europe with a network of Meteorological and Hydrological Services seismographs installed in 1904; daily issuance of Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

weather reports and maps as from 1865 with gale the first research and development project of warnings for the Adriatic Sea as from 1869; WMO’s new World Weather Research initiation of geophysical glaciology in 1886 with Programme (WWRP). Austria also takes a very the establishment of the Alpine Sonnblick active part in promoting regional cooperation Observatory at 3106 m, which is also part of among European countries through organizations WMO’s Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW); such as the European Centre for Medium-Range issuance of forecasts for civil aviation as from Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and EUMETSAT. The 1918; and important scientific research Institute maintains close contacts with contributions made in the 1920s to 1930s in neighbouring Central and Western European theoretical meteorology, bioclimatology and air countries through cooperation agreements. pollution. A number of world-famous scientists, including Professor C. Jelinek and Professor A. The Central Institute for Meteorology and Defant, have made significant contributions to Geodynamics should rightfully be proud of its the development of the Institute and of achievements over the last 150 years, which can meteorology, hydrology, oceanography and be clearly seen through its demonstrated geodynamics. commitment to excellence in the sciences of meteorology, hydrology and geodynamics, and to Since its establishment, the Institute has enjoyed the ideals of WMO. an international reputation. This was demonstrated when, at Carl Jelinek’s invitation, Today, on the basis of its strong foundation and the First International Meteorological Congress with the unflinching support of the Government, was held in Vienna from 2 to 16 September 1873 the Institute discharges with excellence its with the strong support of the Government. This national and international responsibilities in most Congress created the nongovernmental areas related to weather, climate, environment International Meteorological Organization (IMO) and geophysics. Since 1990, the change in the which was the predecessor of the legal status of the Institute has enabled it to 30 intergovernmental WMO. Vienna is also the extend its services to new fields of activities. birthplace of the IMO Secretariat established in 1926. In September 1973, WMO celebrated the As we look to the future, we recognize that, centenary ceremony of IMO in Vienna and in worldwide, the degradation of the environment, Geneva. The ceremony in Vienna was a historic dwindling freshwater resources, the recent gathering of meteorologists, hydrologists and increase in the number of devastating natural other geoscientists and the occasion was also disasters and issues such as globalization, market graced by the President of the Federal Republic forces, rapid changes in technology, urbanization of Austria. and the increase in poverty will all pose considerable challenges to National Following the establishment of the World Meteorological and Hydrological Services of the Meteorological Organization, Austria joined the world, and indeed to WMO itself. The challenges Organization on 23 February 1955. Since then, ahead of us also offer unprecedented the Institute has continued its active involvement opportunities for the advancement of in WMO’s programmes and activities. In meteorology and hydrology in serving particular, Vienna has continued to host a humankind. Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) and a Regional Telecommunication Hub How we can convert these challenges into (RTH) of the World Weather Watch (WWW). opportunities is a task for us all. WMO is well Professor Dr. P. Steinhauser served as President poised to take up these challenges, as was noted of Regional Association VI (Europe) and as a by the United Nations Secretary-General, Mr Kofi member of the WMO Executive Council from Annan, who recently stated that “the role of 1994 to 1998. WMO will be even more important in the future”.

The Institute has also made valuable The spirit of cooperation, as enshrined in its contributions to WMO research programmes Convention and practiced over the last fifty-one such as the Alpine Experiment (ALPEX) in 1982. years, is a further guarantee of the strength and Currently, the Institute contributes actively to the confidence of the Organization in addressing Mesoscale Alpine Project (MAP) experiment as some of the most daunting environmental and Chapter 1 — WMO History and Activities socio-economic challenges that humanity will every success in achieving the vision of the face in the 21st century and in the new Institute and in ensuring continued contributions millennium. This confidence also rests on the to international cooperation in meteorology, experience of the past and, in particular, on the hydrology and geodynamics. traditional collaborative spirit which is a hallmark of the Organization. In this sense, the I look forward to the continued strengthening of commemoration of this anniversary is a milestone the close cooperation and collaboration between event for the meteorological and hydrological Austria and WMO. communities of the world. I therefore wish you

Statement at the inauguration ceremony of the new WMO Headquarters building1

(Geneva, 4 May 1999)

It gives me great pleasure to welcome you all to staff. When the Second World War broke out, this historic inauguration ceremony of the new weather forecasts were censured because of their Headquarters Building of the World usefulness in military operations. The IMO Meteorological Organization (WMO). Some of you Secretariat then moved to Lausanne, Switzerland, may recall the laying of the foundation stone for in November 1939, occupying rented offices for the building four years ago on this site. We are its 6 officials. At the end of the hostilities, a first 31 therefore pleased that the inauguration ceremony extraordinary conference of Directors of the is being held again in the presence of the National Meteorological Services was held in representatives of most of our Member countries. London in February, 1946. The following year, What is significant is that Her Excellency, Mrs the Conference of Directors of the IMO convened Ruth Dreifuss, laid the foundation stone of the in Washington, and the 45 States and 30 building four years ago. Today she is also Territories or groups of Territories represented honouring us with her presence and is unanimously approved the WMO Convention and inaugurating the completed building in her new agreed that the Secretariat of the Organization capacity as President of the Swiss Confederation. should be set up in Geneva in temporary premises made available by the State of Geneva. This event is significant in the history of WMO as The Secretariat moved from Lausanne to Geneva it further demonstrates the value and importance on 10 December 1951 and was housed in some of international collaboration in meteorology former army barracks located in the same vicinity which has existed for over 125 years and which as this new Building, along Avenue de la Paix. We led the Vienna Congress in 1873 to establish a are again pleased to be back, on Avenue de la permanent international body, namely, the Paix. So history is repeating itself. International Meteorological Organization (IMO). Let me therefore take this opportunity to briefly Since its establishment in 1950, WMO has played recall how the Secretariat has developed. a pioneering role in globally coordinated meteorological, hydrological and other The first IMO Secretariat was set up in 1928 in De geophysical activities. Already, in the late fifties, Bilt, the Netherlands, where it remained for 11 WMO became involved in the planning and years. The Secretariat was composed of 9 full-time implementation of the International Geophysical

1 Among those present were Her Excellency, Mrs Ruth Dreifuss, President of the Swiss Confederation; Mrs Martine Brunschwig Graf, President of the Government of the Republic and Canton of Geneva; Mr J. Spielman, President of the Grand Conseil of Geneva; Mr A. Hediger, Mayor of Geneva; Dr. J. W. Zillman, President of WMO; Members of the Diplomatic Corps; Distinguished Representatives of the Swiss and Geneva Authorities; Executive Heads and Representatives of the Organizations and Agencies of the United Nations system; Executive Heads and Representatives of other international Organizations; and other distinguished delegates. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

Year. At that time the group of huts near the disasters on socio-economic development, ozone Palais des Nations which housed the WMO layer depletion, transboundary transport of Secretariat was found to be inadequate. In fact, airborne pollutants, acid rain, and human-induced from 1958, a part of the Secretariat was housed in global warming—were going to emerge as the International Centre nearby. Consequently, a important issues over the next decades. The need new building was constructed by the Canton of to address these challenges and the overcrowding Geneva for WMO at 41 Avenue Giuseppe-Motta of the Secretariat led to the idea in 1985 of the and was inaugurated in July 1960. construction of a new building. This idea came about after several options were considered, In the early sixties, the development of including the renting of office space and adding meteorological sciences accelerated as a result of two or three more floors to the old building. Both important breakthroughs in satellite and options were discarded in view of the cost computer technologies. This led the Organization involved and of Swiss regulations. Therefore in to establish in 1964 an integrated worldwide 1990, at WMO’s request, the Geneva authorities operational system called the World Weather offered a plot of land. In the same year, the Watch (WWW) for weather monitoring and Executive Council set up a Working Group to prediction and the rapid exchange of such study the various aspects of the construction of a information to all nations of the world. WMO, in new building. Eleventh Congress in 1991 collaboration with the International Council for approved, in principle, the construction of a new Science (ICSU), launched the unique Global building and, at its request, the Executive Council Atmospheric Research Programme (GARP), confirmed the decision of Congress in the which lasted for 15 years, from 1967 to 1982, and following year. which contributed to significant advances in weather prediction and the understanding of the The preparatory work started immediately behaviour of the atmosphere. With the growing thereafter with the launching of an international concern for water availability and the recurrence architects’ competition in the autumn of 1992. 32 of floods and droughts, hydrology gained The winning project, the “Chic Planète” by increasing importance, culminating in the architects Rino Brodbeck and Jacques Roulet of establishment of the Operational Hydrology and Geneva, was approved by the 1993 Executive Water Resources Programme (OHWRP) by Sixth Council. Following WMO’s request, the Swiss Congress, in 1971. Such growth of activities and Confederation granted a construction loan in the increase in the Membership of the March 1995. These timely initiatives led to the Organisation led the Secretariat to rent additional organisation of the foundation stone ceremony office accommodation and to construct an on 30 May 1995, at the opening of Twelfth extension to its building, which was completed Congress. We are therefore very grateful to the in 1970. Swiss authorities for the interest-free loan, to the Geneva authorities for the plot of land and to all In the seventies, climate and climate change those who have in one way or another issues led to the establishment of the World contributed to the construction of the building. Climate Programme (WCP) in 1979 and its research component, the World Climate The vision of 1985 has now been realized. It is Research Programme (WCRP) in 1980. This relevant that a number of major initiatives were resulted in the further reinforcement of WMO’s also taken during the period and, in particular, activities related to the environment and to the during the late eighties and early nineties in the forging of stronger links with other international area of climate, environment protection and organizations, such as the United Nations disaster mitigation. These initiatives benefited Environment Programme (UNEP), the United from WMO's long-standing programmes and Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural activities. These include scientific and technical Organization (UNESCO) and ICSU. support to the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer and its Montreal The rapid growth in environmental concerns in Protocol; the establishment of the WMO/UNEP the eighties led to the vision that the WCP and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change other climate- and environmental-related issues— (IPCC); the International Decade for Natural including water quality and water resources Disaster Reduction (IDNDR); the organization of management and increasing impact of natural a ministerial-level World Climate Conference; the Chapter 1 — WMO History and Activities

Global Climate Observing System (GCOS); the This is a building for the 21st century. It is United Nations Conference on Environment and probably the most cost-effective building when Development (UNCED) and its Agenda 21; the compared to recent constructions with similar United Nations Framework Convention on functionality anywhere in Switzerland. Its elegant Climate Change (UN/FCCC), and the United structure and innovative use of energy Nations Convention to Combat Desertification conservation techniques bear testimony to (UNCCD). These developments occurred at a WMO's commitment to the protection of the time when the WMO Membership increased from environment and the rational use of energy. In 155 in the eighties to the present 185. Our vision addition, WMO is utilizing a modern fire for the future is therefore to build on these extinguishing system for its information developments as well as those arising from technology centre, which is not only safe for relevant major global conferences, such as the humans but does not contain any products which World Food Summit and Habitat-II, and to serve are harmful to the ozone layer. The building humanity through strengthened National provides the necessary functional capacity to the Meteorological and Hydrological Services Organization and places it in an advantageous worldwide. position to carry out its scientific and technical programmes. It also provides opportunities to In view of the interdisciplinary nature of the initiate new high-priority activities which will be sciences of meteorology and hydrology, the entrusted to it well into the next century. But reform process underway within the UN system, above all, as we plan to celebrate our fiftieth and rapid socio-economic development, we anniversary next year, the building stands out as a anticipate a further reinforcement of WMO’s symbol of the growing importance of WMO’s relationship with other organisations. These Programmes and activities and of the sentiments were also echoed at the meeting of commitment, optimism and belief of its Members the United Nations Administrative Committee on in the future of the Organization to serve Coordination (ACC), hosted last month by WMO humanity. in our new building. As you may be aware, the 33 ACC groups the heads of UN system organisations and is chaired by Mr Kofi Annan, Secretary- General of the United Nations. Indeed Mr Kofi Annan had expressed his wish to be personally present with us today, but his commitments did Note: Prof. Obasi also spoke at “Open Days”, at not allow him to do so. Nonetheless, we heartily which the public, including school classes, was welcome his video message which will be shown invited to view the new building and special shortly. displays highlighting WMO’s activities. CHAPTER 2 WMO: ADDRESSING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND AGENDA 211

The implementation of Agenda 21 of the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED)

(Statement presented at the Nineteenth Special Session of the United Nations General Assembly) (New York, 27 June 1997)

It is indeed a great honour to address this Manager for Chapter 9 of Agenda 21 dealing with Nineteenth Special Session of the General the Protection of the Atmosphere. In addition, Assembly, convened to assess progress in the WMO was assigned joint responsibility for water follow-up to the 1992 United Nations Conference resources assessment and plays a major role in on Environment and Development (UNCED). The the Protection of the Oceans and Coastal Areas. 34 Earth Summit was a milestone in the In view of its longstanding experience in achievements of the United Nations. It gave birth addressing a large range of environmental issues, to the Conventions on Climate Change, WMO has been in a unique position to provide Biodiversity and Desertification as well as the vital observational and scientific information providing an authoritative statement on the necessary to bring relevant issues to the forefront management, conservation and sustainable of the world’s scientific and political agenda and development of the forests of our planet. to contribute to global actions in response. Moreover, its Agenda 21 provided all nations with Concerns about changes in the chemical an action plan for sustainable development into composition of the Earth’s atmosphere, and the 21st century. As the Session has already heard changes in its climate, are based upon the data much about UNCED and Agenda 21, I will touch collected and the research efforts by WMO and only on those areas in which the World its predecessor, the International Meteorological Meteorological Organization (WMO) has Organization (IMO), going back into the last contributed to the implementation of the Agenda century. These have shown that human activities and other outcomes of UNCED. have been affecting the global atmosphere in many ways. WMO’s mandate cuts across a significant number of key sectors vital to the sustainable One of the main outcomes of UNCED has been development of all nations. Following the Earth the United Nations Framework Convention on Summit, WMO was assigned as Task Manager Climate Change (UNFCCC). Among the first steps within the UN System on areas relating to the in this regard was the setting up of the World Climate Programme, Drought Monitoring Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for the and Natural Disaster Reduction, and as co-Task FCCC by WMO and UNEP in 1990. The issue of

1 Editors Note: In the series of presentations from 1996 to 2003, Professor Obasi attached great importance to the roles that WMO and the NMHSs play in moving towards “sustainable development” and in fulfilling many provisions of Agenda 21 of the UN Conference on Environment and Development held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. The Addresses included here begin with Prof. Obasi’s 1997 presentation to a Special Session of the UN General Assembly on Agenda 21 and continue with a more comprehensive review, at the popular level, presented in the Maldives in 1999. Special attention is then given to empowerment of women as called for by the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD), and to more specific applications of meteorological and hydrological input to sustainable development in Africa. The Chapter ends with an important address to the Ministerial session at World Summit on Sustainable Development 2002. Chapter 2 — WMO: Addressing Sustainable Development and Agenda 21 global climate change gained prominence after The implementation of climate matters under scientists began observing, a few decades ago, Chapter 9 of Agenda 21 has necessitated much that greenhouse gases, particularly carbon closer relations and working arrangements dioxide (CO2), had been accumulating in the between WMO and other international bodies atmosphere as a result of human activities. It is and organizations. As a result, WMO, together estimated now that CO2 concentrations have with a number of other Organizations with grown by 29 per cent since pre-industrial times. significant climate-related programmes, co- At the same time, it was discovered that the sponsored the development of an integrating global mean temperature had, for some time, framework for international climate-related been steadily increasing and is now higher than it programmes named the “Climate Agenda”. The has been since the latter part of the last century Climate Agenda was supported by the fourth when observations began, with 1995 being the session of the Commission on Sustainable highest on record. The rate of increase is also Development in April 1996. It is the firm belief of higher than any believed to have occurred over the participating Organizations that the Climate the last 10 000 years. Accumulation of these Agenda will contribute to the socio-economic greenhouse gases is the principal factor which development of the nations of the world and to would lead to the warming of the Earth and to the implementation of Agenda 21, particularly the changes in climate. It will be recalled that in 1976 future implementation and development of the WMO issued the first authoritative statement on UNFCCC. As the lead agency in the Climate climate change and in 1979 convened the First Agenda, and to enhance this cooperation further, World Climate Conference. Climate monitoring WMO and the partner Organizations established and scientific research carried out by the World the Inter-Agency Committee on the Climate Climate Programme (WCP) of WMO and partners, Agenda (IACCA) in April of this year. IACCA will including the World Climate Research raise the profile of the Climate Agenda and will Programme (WCRP), led the Intergovernmental provide governments with information on the Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), established in requirements for its implementation. The socio- 1988 by WMO and UNEP, to conclude in its economic benefits that would accrue from the 35 Second Assessment Report that “...there is a implementation of the Agenda are expected to be discernible human influence on climate”. demonstrated, inter alia, through WMO’s Climate Information and Prediction Services As part of its monitoring exercise, WMO issues (CLIPS) project. CLIPS is designed to provide annually a Statement on the Status of the Global comprehensive multidisciplinary applications of Climate, providing governments, policy makers, climate information and prediction services. scientists and the general public with the latest information on this important issue. WMO’s In parallel with and complementary to the activities continue to lead to the growing Climate Agenda, WMO and several of these awareness that the world’s climate, as well as its Organizations are co-sponsoring the Global natural variability and change, impact on the Climate Observing System (GCOS), the Global level of the oceans, the water cycle of the world, Ocean Observing System (GOOS) and the Global agriculture and the biodiversity of natural Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS), which are ecosystems, including forests, deserts and arid being implemented to provide data for, inter lands, and can have both direct and indirect alia, climate system monitoring, climate change impacts on human health. It can, for example, detection and response monitoring, as well as for have negative impacts on various infrastructures, research work in improving climate models. This such as those related to energy, industry and data will therefore support the work of the WCP, transportation. WMO’s scientific and technical the WCRP and the IPCC in providing the support to the IPCC is the basis for its input to scientific information, improved climate the UNFCCC, under which developed countries predictions and assessments for governments to have agreed to take measures aimed at returning further strengthen the commitments on their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 1990 greenhouse gas emission reductions under the levels by the year 2000. Governments are UNFCCC. currently debating measures to further strengthen their commitments on GHG emission As part of its implementation of Chapter 9 of reductions in the first decades of the 21st Agenda 21, WMO, through the National century. Meteorological and Hydrological Services Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

(NMHSs) of the world, monitors the pre-ozone-hole levels some time in the middle of concentrations of greenhouse gases, ozone, the the next century. long-range transport of pollutants, the acidity and toxicity of rain, and atmospheric levels of One of UNCED’s goals is the proper use of the aerosols. As many of these are produced in urban land for sustainable development. Recurrent areas, WMO plays a major role in coordinating droughts and, in many areas, the pressures placed activities related to the monitoring of the urban on the soil and vegetation, such as from the environment and in assisting in the development overgrazing by a large number of livestock and of abatement policies. poor soil management, generally result in the degradation of the land and therefore promote WMO has also played a major role in identifying desertification, particularly in the arid and and communicating the environmental problems semiarid zones of the world. Some estimates of ozone depletion in the upper atmosphere. The suggest that about 1.5 million hectares of human-induced destruction of the protective irrigated lands are lost each year in this way. In ozone layer allows harmful ultra-violet radiation to this regard, WMO’s functions include assessing reach the surface of the Earth, with serious effects the impact of weather and climate fluctuations on on human health, including an increase in eye food production and addressing the cataracts and non-melanoma skin cancers, damage desertification issue. Therefore, in implementing to genetic DNA, and suppression of the efficiency Agenda 21’s Chapter 12 on Combating of the immune system. In 1975, WMO issued the Desertification, WMO cooperates with agencies first scientific statement on ozone entitled such as The Food and Agricultural Organization “Modification of the ozone layer due to human (FAO) in promoting food production through the activities and some possible geophysical application of agrometeorological methods to consequences”. It signaled the first international improve land use, crop selection, and warning of the possible environmental management practices. In Africa, these measures implications of a substantial ozone decrease and are augmented by the programmes and activities 36 recommended international action to provide of Drought Monitoring Centres in Kenya and better understanding of the issue. Two years later, Zimbabwe, as part of WMO’s support for the WMO co-organized an Intergovernmental Meeting United Nations Convention to Combat of Experts which drew up the first international Desertification (CCD) in those countries Plan of Action for the Protection of the Ozone experiencing serious drought and/or Layer. The subsequent scientific assessments by desertification, particularly in Africa. WMO and partners provided the basis for the conclusion of the Convention on the Protection of Within the UN System, implementation of ocean- the Ozone Layer in Vienna in 1985, its Montreal related activities under Chapter 17 of Agenda 21 Protocol in 1987, and later amendments to the is coordinated by the UN Administrative Protocol in London in 1990 and Copenhagen in Committee on Coordination (ACC) Sub- 1992. As part of its continuing support for the Committee on Oceans and Coastal Areas. In Vienna Convention and Montreal Protocol, WMO addition to the monitoring of the oceans, WMO has been issuing regular bulletins on the state of has several initiatives for the protection of the the ozone layer, particularly on the “ozone hole” oceans. Among other things, the WMO Marine in the polar regions. Pollution Emergency Response Support System (MPERSS), currently being implemented globally, The implementation of agreements under the will ensure that appropriate and timely Montreal Protocol and its amendments to combat meteorological and oceanographic advice and the destruction of ozone by the reduction of services are provided by National Meteorological ozone depleting substances released into the Services to those authorities responsible for atmosphere represents a major success for the dealing with marine pollution emergencies. This global community in the implementation of will be supported by regional activities such as Agenda 21. However, governments of the world the South-East Asian Centre for Atmospheric and must recognize that only with the continuing full Marine Prediction (SEACAMP) project, aimed at compliance with these agreements will the rates enhancing marine services and systems in South- of ozone decline in the stratosphere level off and East Asia. A similar project is being implemented start to diminish at the turn of the century before in the Indian Ocean, with others likely in the eventually returning the ozone layer to normal other oceans of the world. Chapter 2 — WMO: Addressing Sustainable Development and Agenda 21

A major concern in the follow-up to UNCED is building, the pooling of human and financial the implementation of Chapter 18 of Agenda 21 resources, and greater resort to regional and on the issue of fresh water, a vital resource in interregional co-operation. In this connection, it sustainable national development. Water is important that there be a greater exchange of consumption has increased by a factor of six relevant hydrological as well as meteorological since the beginning of the 20th century, which is data, on a regional and international basis, but more than double the rate of population growth particularly among countries sharing the same during the same period. The result is evident in freshwater resources. the competition in many parts of the world for water for agricultural, domestic and industrial In this process, there is the urgent need to purposes. Freshwater availability is complicated strengthen local hydrological data collection by increasing levels of pollution. There are now networks and to arrest any deterioration that has 22 countries that have renewable freshwater occurred in some places. This is imperative so resources under 1000 m3 per capita per year, that a long time-series of historic data would be commonly accepted as a benchmark for available to contribute to climate change studies freshwater scarcity. This competition for water is and freshwater management planning strategies. expected to grow since the world’s population is It is therefore very relevant that the recent fifth projected to increase from the current 5.7 billion session of the CSD, when considering the to 8.3 billion in 2025 and to about 10 billion in Comprehensive Assessment, agreed on a specific 2050. Freshwater shortage is expected to be the recommendation given in paragraph (f) of the most dominant water problem in the forthcoming Freshwater section of the draft text for this century, with far-reaching consequences for the Session, to strengthen the data collection environment. capabilities of governments and international institutions, in order to facilitate the assessment It is being increasingly recognized that and management of water resources and to foster sustainable solutions for water-related problems regional and international information exchange. can only be found if we have a comprehensive 37 understanding of the water resources available in In addition, and for the long-term management of the world. Because of its mandate in hydrology freshwater resources and for the implementation and water resources, WMO was assigned joint of Agenda 21, it would be highly beneficial to responsibility with UNESCO in the area of water consolidate the functions of the many agencies resource assessment by the UN Commission for which deal with water issues at the national and Sustainable Development (CSD). As a result, a international levels. This would no doubt Comprehensive Assessment of Freshwater contribute to greater efficiency in dealing with Resources of the World was recently undertaken the enormous challenges of freshwater by WMO, UNESCO and other agencies, in management in the future. response to a request by the CSD. The study, which has been presented to this Session of the UNCED and it’s Agenda 21 provided the nations General Assembly, confirmed that there is of the world with an action plan for sustainable insufficient knowledge of exactly how much development into the next century. In this water is available. This situation poses difficulties regard, WMO has placed strong emphasis on for effective national, regional and global water capacity building and the transfer of appropriate resources management. WMO has intensified its and affordable technology to developing relevant programmes to assist the national countries and countries with economies in Hydrological Services of the world in addressing transition, and in particular, to small island these difficulties. In this regard, WMO initiated developing States, This enables the National the World Hydrological Cycle Observing System Meteorological and Hydrological Services to play (WHYCOS) which is being implemented through a greater role in the sustainable development regional components with the assistance of the process. Sustainable development is impacted in World Bank and regional institutions to a major way by natural disasters. Therefore, in contribute to the improvement of national and considering aspects of human settlements, WMO regional water resources assessment capabilities. expends considerable efforts in natural disaster It is being increasingly realized that, in the case of mitigation. Of relevance to this is WMO’s strong developing countries, greater efforts for water support for the activities related to the assessment should be directed towards capacity International Decade for Natural Disaster Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

Reduction (IDNDR) and the implementation of its countries to the various Conventions aimed at the Yokohama Declaration. Specifically, WMO assists protection of the Earth’s environment. in the upgrade of the National Meteorological and Governments must transform those commitments Hydrological Services to improve early warning from words into real action, particularly in the systems to mitigate against natural disasters such energy and transportation sectors. This can be as tropical cyclones, floods and droughts. In this aided by a greater public awareness of the issues regard, there has been significant and measurable at hand. Greater support for the networks success in many parts of the world. For instance, monitoring the atmosphere and oceans and the while there will always be damage from the effect related research into environmental and climate of tropical cyclones, continually improving timely change is imperative, in order to improve warnings has led to a marked reduction in the scientific understanding and to improve advice to loss of life and damage to property, thereby governments and policy makers for the minimizing the recovery time and impact on enhancement of mitigation efforts. In this regard, national sustainable development. A good continuing strong support for the work of the example is the tropical cyclone which struck Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is Bangladesh in May this year, during which over important, including the preparation for its Third one million people and large numbers of Assessment Report on climate change, due to be livestock were evacuated well in time, due to issued by the year 2000. Governments will need advanced warnings. In this regard, it is very to develop policies and action plans which build important to consider the continuation of IDNDR on the findings of the Comprehensive activities beyond the end of the decade ending in Assessment of the Freshwater Resources of the the year 2000. World, including improvements of hydrological data collection and exchange. Mitigation efforts To assist in the improved implementation of against natural disasters will continue to be a several UNCED issues, there is a need to further priority. Improvements need to be made in the the advancement of the geosciences and their dispersion of funds to support environmental 38 application within and outside the UN System. projects and in the transfer of technology to This will require enhanced coordination and developing countries for capacity building cooperation among various disciplines and a activities. In this case, the involvement of the more even development of related programmes. private sector should be further encouraged.

Indications so far are that significant progress has In conclusion, I have outlined the principal WMO been made in the implementation of the goals of activities directed towards the implementation of UNCED and its Agenda 21 in some areas, but UNCED’s Agenda 21. Let me say that I believe the notably less in others. In terms of the protection implementation of Agenda 21 is moving in the of the atmosphere, there have been tangible right direction, despite the slow progress or the results from the Vienna Convention and the lack of adequate funding in some areas. WMO Montreal Protocol by the reduction of ozone- will continue to give very high priority to depleting substances released into the developing new initiatives to further the atmosphere. So far, however, the commitments implementation and looks forward to increased to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases, cooperation at the national, regional and which cause global warming and climate change, international levels in this regard. have not been transformed into significant actions. In general, efforts to combat land degradation and desertification, or to address the increasingly important task of freshwater availability and management, have not been adequately supported at the local or international levels. The dispersion of funds for environmental projects in developing countries has not been as great as anticipated.

What can we then look forward to in the next five years after the Earth Summit? In general, there is the need for stronger commitments by all Chapter 2 — WMO: Addressing Sustainable Development and Agenda 21

The role of meteorology in support of sustainable development

Lecture to last grade High School students of Malé on the occasion of the Silver Jubilee of the Meteorological Centre (Malé, Maldives, 2 August 1999)

Introduction affect the availability of many basic needs such as food, energy and water. It is therefore not The term “sustainable development” applies to possible to achieve development now and at the progress in which activities are undertaken to same time safeguard the interest of future meet present needs but do not negatively impact generations without making full use of the on the ability of succeeding generations to satisfy knowledge of present and future weather and their own needs. For example, if we were to use climate conditions in the realization of the coastal areas we should not pollute them to the national development plans. Such considerations extent that the next generation will not be able to are particularly important for islands such as the continue to enjoy the beaches as we do today. On Republic of Maldives. the other hand, an example of “unsustainable” activity is the destruction of forests without reforestation. Another example is industrial Some basic facts about weather activity without any effective control on the and climate emission of certain gases, which can cause global warming and sea-level rise. The components of our planet Earth are the air above the surface of the Earth (atmosphere); the 39 Social and economic development of many land mass below; the fresh water such as in lakes countries depends on the local natural resources, and rivers; the oceans and seas; and the biosphere most of which are significantly affected by (plants and animals). The science of meteorology extreme weather and climatic events such as deals with the atmosphere, its interactions with severe storms, floods, droughts and tropical the other components of the Earth, and the cyclones. In addition, weather and climate also weather and climate that result. The term weather is used by meteorologists to refer to the day-to-day conditions of the meteorological parameters, such as the short-term conditions of temperature, pressure, rainfall, humidity, etc., at any location. Climate on the other hand represents mean weather conditions averaged over a long period of time, say 30 years.

The energy for driving most of the natural processes on Earth comes from the Sun. It should be noted that our Earth has two major movements which affect how each location on Earth receives radiation from the Sun. These are (i) the daily rotation around its axis and (ii) the movement of the Earth around the Sun once every year (Figure 2.2). The daily rotation produces the day and night sequence. The annual movement of the Earth around the Sun, together with the tilt of the Earth’s axis, cause the various seasons of the year, such as winter and summer. These are reflected in the Figure 2.1—Map showing geographical position alternating dry northeast and wet southwest of Maldives monsoons that are dominant in the Maldives. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

N N Figure 2.2—As the Earth orbits the Sun, Winter the tilt of its axis gives rise to seasons. At Spring and Autumn equinoxes, the Sun is tice sols inter S overhead at the S Spring equinox W ng ri Equator. At the Sp SUN n Summer solstice, the um N ut Sun is at the most N tice A ols er s northern position mm Su Autumnal equinox (23.4°N) and the Winter solstice at its most southern position Summer (23.4°S). S S

Figure 2.3—The relative amounts of Sun ray Arctic Circle radiation received from the Sun

Tropic of Cancer 40 Sun ray EQUATOR

Tropic of Capricorn

Antarctic Circle

Figure 2.3 shows that the parallel rays from the energy is lost to space and the remaining energy is Sun falling on the Earth are more direct in the transformed into heat which raises the tempera- equatorial region than in the polar regions. Thus ture of the earth-atmosphere system and also the solar energy reaching a given area is higher in drives the atmospheric motions and ocean the equatorial region than in other regions, with currents. On the average, incoming radiation from the least amount received in polar regions. the Sun is balanced by outgoing radiation from the Another factor that determines the amount of radi- Earth, thus maintaining the temperature balance of ation from the Sun reaching the Earth’s surface is the earth-atmosphere system as a whole. The the atmospheric gases. The rays from the Sun pass resulting average structure of the atmosphere is through the atmosphere before reaching the given in Figure 2.5. The earth-atmosphere system Earth’s surface. The atmosphere is composed of transfers the excess heat from the tropical regions natural gases in various concentrations. The to the polar regions. This redistribution of the natural composition of dry atmospheric air energy gives rise to the weather and climate that includes the 78.08 per cent nitrogen by volume, we live in (Figures 2.6 a and b). The winds, includ- 20.95 per cent oxygen, 0.93 per cent argon and ing the monsoons, also play an important role in 0.03 per cent carbon dioxide. These atmospheric transporting water vapour from the oceans, lakes gases subject the radiation from the Sun to various and other water bodies to land areas where it may physical processes (Figure 2.4). Some of the condense and fall as rain. Thus, moisture for the Chapter 2 — WMO: Addressing Sustainable Development and Agenda 21

-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 oCelsius 120

110

100 Thermosphere

80km (50mi)

50 Mesosphere

40km (25mi)

30 Ozone layer

10 Stratosphere Troposphere

Figure 2.4—Distribution of solar radiation with Figure 2.5—The vertical structure of the overcast cloud atmosphere

Figure 2.6a (left)—Formation of cloud and lighting from thunderstorm clouds. Figure 2.6b (right). Meteorological information are crucial for air transportation. Route forecasts often include risk of convective thunder clouds. rain at any location might have been transported data being exchanged are the results of the efforts over thousands of kilometres by the winds. of the individual meteorologists working within Weather and climate at any location are therefore the various Meteorological Services of the individ- influenced by processes that may be taking place ual countries. These data would not be easily outside the region. The energy exchange can lead accessible to all those who may need them, with- to the formation, in certain areas, of extreme out international cooperation. weather and climatic events such as thunderstorms, floods, droughts and tropical cyclones. The role of meteorology is to observe and predict Weather and climate the motions of the atmosphere and oceans, and to information for sustainable provide the information for use in human activities. The prediction of weather and climate development requires, among other things, weather data from a Weather and climate information are needed to good network of weather stations from around the warn at an early stage against natural disasters and world. It should be noted that the meteorological to support activities such as fisheries, tourism and Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

recreation, transport, freshwater management, Tourism agriculture, human health, energy resources, offshore structures and communication Tourism is very important for the economy of (Figure 1.7). Scientists have shown that the many small island countries. Severe weather, average global temperature may rise between 1 enhanced risk of natural disasters, and damage to and 3.5°C, by the end of the next century. A infrastructure and erosion of beaches would corresponding rise in sea level within the range make the islands and coastal zones less attractive of 15 to 95 cm has also been projected. Such a for tourists. There is also the threat of climate sea-level rise will be a serious threat to many of change and sea-level rise. (Figure 2.9 Coastal the low-lying islands and coastal regions erosion). Meteorological information and worldwide. All these are challenges that the prediction services are therefore vital for tourism. younger generation has to think about since it In addition, climate information is required to will be affected more than the older generation. plan future tourism activities.

Fisheries Transport

Timely availability of meteorological information Weather and climate factors also affect air, sea, and warnings enhances the safety of fishermen at rail and road transportation systems. Many sea and improves catches (Figure 2.7). Climatic accidents and much loss of life by the various conditions also influence the erosion of corals transport systems have been directly or indirectly and affect mangroves that are important for the related to weather. Support to air transport has breeding of fish. Oil pollution also affects fish been one of the major services that has been catch, and weather information is useful in clean- provided by the meteorological community for up operations (Figure 2.8). many decades (Figure 2.10). Today, weather services for marine activities include accurate and 42 timely observations and forecasts of wind, weather, ocean waves and air and sea temperatures (Figure 2.11). Some of the activities

Figure 2.7—Small fishing boats are common in all developing countries. ((c) Wolcott Henry 2001) Chapter 2 — WMO: Addressing Sustainable Development and Agenda 21

Figure 2.8—Effects of oil slicks on ecosystems. Wind forecast can help to assist clean-up operation. 43 which are sensitive to weather include offshore marine resource development, coastal engineering, towing operations and pollution clean-up. In planning their routes over the oceans, shipping companies utilize wind and wave forecasts from National Meteorological Services in order to avoid weather-related disasters (Figure 2.11).

Water, food and natural disasters

Weather and hydrologic services are essential to dealing with issues related to fresh water, food security and preparing for natural disasters. (These matters are discussed in detail in Chapters 7, 8 and 9, respectively.)

Human health

Climate conditions have both direct and indirect impacts on health. The direct impacts include death, injury, psychological disorders and exposure caused by extreme climate stress. Indirect impacts include the spread and transmission of certain diseases. Some of the Figure 2.9—Coastal erosion diseases include malaria, dengue, yellow fever (Source: WMO) Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

Figure 2.10—Aircraft safety depends crucially on weather forecasts. With accurate wind forecasts, fuel costs can be kept to the minimum.

Figure 2.11— Meteorological forecasts can help to enhance the safety of marine transport. (Source: Météo- France/Rémy Caspar) 44

and cholera; others may be food and water- meteorological observing stations are vital for related diseases. Still other indirect effects assessing the potential for solar and wind energy include respiratory problems and allergies due to as well as hydropower. The planning, increases in some air pollutants and pollens. management and safe operations of such energy Exposure to air pollution and severe weather systems depend on accessibility to reliable events also increases the likelihood of ill health meteorological and hydrological information. and mortality. Some of the diseases are expected Weather and climate information are useful in to shift with climate change. For health and this operation. comfort, human beings construct various types of houses (Figure 2.12). Conclusions

Energy resources The major challenges to the development of Small Island Developing States (SIDS) like Small island States could benefit from renewable Maldives include natural and environmental energy sources, such as solar, wind, water and disasters, climate change and sea-level rise, wave energy. Data from the network of waste management, overfishing of coastal and Chapter 2 — WMO: Addressing Sustainable Development and Agenda 21

Large, flat roof Thick wall for insulation Well insulated and waterproof roof

Narrow shaded Removable Shuttering street Small shuttered screen or or mesh windows shuttering HOT DRY ZONE HOUSE Grass, mud, branches

Small HOT HUMID ZONE HOUSE opening Cooking and relaxing area

Thick walls Pool or fountain

HOT SAVANNA ZONE HOUSE

Opened to breezes Protection from radiation 45

MEDITERRANEAN ZONE COURTYARD HOUSE

Steep gables HOT DESERT ZONE TENT

Vent Sleeping Lamp platform platform

Windows Entrance set high

Small door

COLD ZONE HOUSE ESKIMO IGLOO Figure 2.12—For health and comfort, types of houses vary from one climate to another. sea resources, freshwater resources management availability of qualified local experts. This is and development, depletion of natural where all of you, the young generation, come in. resources, land use and land degradation, energy You have the responsibility to effectively availability, tourism management and the address the current and future development conservation of biodiversity. Weather and challenges of your country. I would therefore climate observations are required to take up like to take this opportunity to challenge some these issues which are of relevance for present of you to join this exciting profession of development and for that of future generations. meteorology, and the related environmental Addressing the major challenges faced by the fields. SIDS will require, among other things, the Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

Welcome address on the occasion of the opening of the second conference on women in meteorology and hydrology1

(Geneva, Switzerland, 24 March 2003)

It is a great pleasure and honour for me to extend introduced in the aeronautical engineering to all of you a warm welcome to the World departments in the United States at the Meteorological Organization (WMO) Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Headquarters on the occasion of the Second the California Institute of Technology. The first Conference on Women in Meteorology and woman with a degree in meteorology graduated Hydrology. On behalf of the WMO and myself, I from MIT in 1940. In the United Kingdom, wish to express our appreciation to our women science graduates were recruited into the distinguished guests for their presence and for volunteer service midway into World War II, and accepting to share with us their knowledge, of the nearly 2000 forecasters trained in support expertise and professional experiences. I am of overseas aviation activities, almost 50 were confident that the facilities and the congenial Women’s Auxiliary Air Force officers. A number atmosphere in our Headquarters will provide a of women in the former Soviet Union also served comfortable setting for your deliberations. The as forecasters during World War II. After the war, planning and arrangements that have gone into some women remained in the profession, the preparations of this Conference by many of becoming pioneers and opening new frontiers for 46 you present here will no doubt pave the way for other women to follow. In the 1950s, women’s lively discussions and a successful outcome. I interest in meteorology expanded slowly but wish to particularly thank our Local Organizing quickened in the 1960s, especially in the Committee, comprising our top women industrialized countries. The situation in the meteorologists in the Secretariat, Mrs Valery developing countries has been less bright, as Detemmerman, Mrs Haleh Kootval and Mrs Liisa opportunities for women were limited and were Jalkanen. They were assisted by members of the mostly in the operational services. However, a WMO Executive Management, mainly Professor few individual women exceptionally reached Hong Yang and Dr. Eduard Sarukhanian. Their senior positions in the administrative hierarchy work, I am sure, will ensure the success of the and the scientific community. It is recalled that Conference. I am also thankful to Australia, the first detailed survey of women in atmospheric Canada, Finland, France, Japan, the United sciences in the United States was published in the Kingdom, the United States and others for their 1974 Bulletin of the American Meteorological generous contributions towards the organization Society (AMS). The survey found that conditions of this event. and opportunities for women had improved, but that combining family life and career was a In order to better place this Conference in challenge, as was attaining high-level perspective, let me start by outlining very briefly management positions. Even today, however, the historical trend in the involvement of women nearly three decades after the publication of the in meteorology. In the 1920s, women in AMS survey, that conclusion has some validity in industrialized countries were encouraged to many countries, developed or developing. pursue careers in meteorology at geophysical institutes, and a few obtained doctoral degrees by the mid- 1930s. For example, around the same period, meteorology programmes were

1 Among those present were Dr Kema Chikwe, Honourable Minister of Aviation of Nigeria; Ms Joke Waller-Hunter, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC); Ms Rejoice Mabudafhasi, Deputy Minister Ministry of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, South Africa and Prof. Lydia Makhubu, President of the Third World Organization of Women in Science. Chapter 2 — WMO: Addressing Sustainable Development and Agenda 21

In this historical context, how do like to provide a quick preview of some of the we view the contributions of the significant results. First Meeting? The key conclusion of the survey is that, although For some of you who were present at the First there have been some small, incremental Meeting on the Participation of Women in increases in the percentage of women Meteorology and Hydrology, held in Bangkok in participating in certain WMO activities since 1997 at the kind invitation of the Government of 1997, there has been little significant change in Thailand, you may recall that the Meeting was the overall participation. Women remain originally planned for a small group of women drastically under-represented in WMO activities. forecasters. However, in the light of the Beijing Participation in technical commissions, regional Platform for Action of the 1995 Fourth World associations and the Executive Council, as well as Conference on Women, and the commitment of employment in both NMHSs and the WMO WMO to promoting equal opportunities for Secretariat, continue to be overwhelmingly male- women in our profession, the Meeting was dominated. Furthermore, the data indicate that expanded to include meteorologists and women are much more likely to serve in a hydrologists from all WMO Regions. As such, it is support category than in one of policy- or hailed as a landmark event. For the first time, at decision-making responsibility. Some specific an international level, women meteorologists and survey findings that support the key conclusion hydrologists took the lead in planning and are: deliberating on ways and means of encouraging women to choose careers in meteorology, (i) Women comprised 6.4 per cent of principal hydrology and related sciences; of promoting delegates at the 1999 World Meteorological their participation as scientists in the programmes Congress, compared to 3.1 per cent in the and activities of WMO; and of encouraging 1997 survey; national authorities to create equal opportunities (ii) Men are about eight times more likely than for women to attain policy- and decision-making women to serve as members of delegations 47 positions in their chosen atmospheric and other to Congress, compared with 10 times in the geophysical fields. The Meeting adopted a 1997 survey; number of recommendations addressing these (iii) Men are five times more likely than women issues and identified specific actions that could be to serve as delegates to WMO Executive undertaken by national authorities including Council meetings, compared with nearly Directors of National Meteorological and seven times in the 1997 survey; Hydrological Services (NMHSs), WMO and the (iv) women comprise 11 per cent of the professionals themselves. membership of WMO technical commissions, the same as in the 1997 survey; Today, just over five years beyond (v) Whereas data from a few large countries in the Bangkok meeting, the question RA II and RA VI show high rates of NMHS employment of women, globally, over 90 on our minds is how far have we per cent of Members have low rates of been successful in achieving those employment of women in the workforce; and (vi) even though women may comprise goals? a reasonable proportion of the overall The Bangkok Meeting benefited from baseline NMHS workforce, they constitute only data gleaned from a comprehensive WMO global around 10 to 15 per cent of the participants survey in 1997. The survey covered the level and in most WMO activities. nature of the participation of both women and men in WMO’s activities and in the fields of meteorology, operational hydrology and related At first sight, this part of the survey may appear geophysical sciences. In preparation for this disheartening. However, let us have a closer look Conference, and to monitor changes and assess at some other developments since the Bangkok progress, a follow-up survey was carried out in Meeting. 2001. The detailed analysis of this survey will be presented at the Conference. I would, however, Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

As a specialized agency of the United Nations, women have served as Permanent Representative WMO is responsible for coordinating the work in of their countries with WMO, and this accounts meteorology and operational hydrology around for the small number of female Principal the world for the benefit of all humankind, men Delegates at WMO Congresses. For the first four and women alike. As such, it follows a policy that Congresses, there was only one female Principal ensures equal opportunities to women for Delegate, then none for the next three. At education and training, career advancement and Twelfth Congress in 1995, there were five participation in meteorology and operational women from a total of 161 Principal Delegates, hydrology. In this respect, it is encouraging to increasing to 11 of 170 at Thirteenth Congress in note that of the training fellowships awarded in 1999. Fourteenth Congress will take place in May meteorology during 2001 and 2002, 20 per cent this year, and one hopes that the trend will went to women candidates, double the 10 per accelerate. cent awarded five years ago. Over the same period, about one-third of the fellowships in In developing countries, although more women operational hydrology were awarded to women, are pursuing studies in atmospheric and water in contrast to 13 per cent five years ago. sciences and finding employment in Evidently, these increases are important positive Meteorological and Hydrological Services, their developments since they could mean that overall involvement in the professions is still governments are submitting the candidatures of limited. qualified women with prospects of career development in meteorology and operational hydrology. In addition, I am pleased that all WMO What are the major factors that still technical commissions and regional associations hinder the advancement of women have passed resolutions in their recent sessions encouraging more active involvement and into the upper hierarchy of participation by women in their work. meteorology and hydrology? 48 As for the WMO Secretariat itself, the policy of In most countries there are a fair number of equal opportunity in obtaining positions and young women who join their NMHSs at either the promotion is strictly adhered to. It applies to professional level or as technicians and assistants. both male and female candidates who meet the The challenge is how to retain them so that these requirements of knowledge, experience and professionals could occupy more senior demonstrated capability in the job area. At the positions. Although meteorology and hydrology end of 1999, Secretariat staff totalled 267, of provide interesting career prospects and present whom 137 were women and 130 men, with the chance for early recognition, it is men who women comprising 18.9 per cent of the largely stay on as professionals and leaders in Professional Service staff and 78.6 per cent of the these fields, and obviously dominate and prevail. General Service staff. Since then, there has been a small but significant increase in the percentage of Traditionally, women have been more interested professional women, to 23.7 per cent at the end in biological and social sciences, law, arts and of 2002. I am pleased to report that today we business than in the physical sciences such as have three women filling the posts of directors of mathematics, physics, meteorology and departments, as well as a number of women who hydrology. An additional complication is that in are chiefs of divisions. It is hoped that this many countries hydrology is studied as an option number will continue to grow in the coming of engineering, a traditionally male-dominated years. field. Whereas in industrialized countries this inclination has somewhat changed, in developing Today there are only five female Permanent countries parents, teachers, mentors and the Representatives of Members with WMO, when social and educational systems need to be more five years ago we boasted seven, as well as eight supportive and encouraging to women to enter hydrological advisers. However, the Permanent professions in meteorology and hydrology. Representatives are all from developing Today, in practically all countries there is countries, which gives us hope that there are awareness of the relevant issues and actions indeed women at the top management levels of required to actively promote the equality of their respective NMHSs. Historically, very few women in all spheres of national life. However, Chapter 2 — WMO: Addressing Sustainable Development and Agenda 21 most of the practical difficulties still appear to (iv) Increase opportunities for the recruitment arise from cultural and social attitudes which of female staff in all areas of the Service and reinforce women’s traditional roles in the home implement measures to improve their level and family or encourage them to settle for more of competence, confidence and expertise traditional careers. For instance, shift work is a in the profession and provide equal requirement for operational services and women opportunities for career advancement to often find difficulty in coping with its demands. the highest levels; This is due partly to very realistic family reasons, (v) As part of networking among women, use but also because the hours are socio-culturally the NMHS web site to highlight female staff unacceptable in some countries. In these and their contribution to the organization situations, given their interest in the sciences, and promote careers for women in some women choose to pursue academic and meteorology and hydrology; research careers in meteorology and hydrology (vi) Encourage and propose promising female rather than to stay in the operational field. Such a candidates as members, experts and decision will ultimately enrich the pool of talent rapporteurs in WMO constituent bodies in the fields of meteorology and hydrology, but it and ensure the participation of female also means that women may not be given the senior staff at Regional Technical opportunity to reach the highest levels of policy- Conferences on Management of NMHSs; and decision-making in the NMHSs. and (vii) encourage and support the application of women for appropriate positions in the WMO Secretariat and other So what can be done to improve international and regional organizations, in the participation of women in order to increase the representation of professional women. meteorology and hydrology? Much has been said and some improvement has been achieved in enhancing the participation of The World Summit on Sustainable 49 women in meteorology and hydrology, and Development held in South Africa in 2002 particularly in the activities of WMO. The expressed its commitment “to ensure that Conference will therefore have to review women’s empowerment and emancipation, thoroughly the underlying reasons for the and gender equality, are integrated in all achievements and failures, explore and assess activities encompassed within Agenda 21, the various avenues and opportunities provided by Millennium Development Goals and the advances in science and technology, and decide Johannesburg Plan of Implementation”. It thus how to use networking and mentoring to help recognized that women’s status and the health meet the challenges in developing and further of the natural world are all linked. In advancing women’s careers in meteorology and developed countries, women have a role in hydrology. To make further progress, I urge ensuring sustainable consumption, while in Governments and Directors of Meteorological and developing countries, they contribute to Hydrological Services to: conservation and sustainable use of diverse resources. The unique and exciting fields of (i) Promote national education programmes, meteorology and hydrology contribute to including teacher training, that actively global efforts at ensuring sustainable target girls and women in science and development by ensuring, among other things, technology, in preparation for their entry the safety and well-being of nations and the into professions such as meteorology and protection of our planet Earth. In this, both hydrology; women and men have to share the (ii) Invite distinguished women scientists to responsibility. Understandably, there are participate and speak at NMHS activities as behavioural, cultural, environmental and socio- role models and regularly use the services economic factors working against rapid of competent female staff to mentor attainment of change in all human endeavours. students and to encourage women to take However, I am pleased to note that against all up the professions; odds, more so as practitioners of meteorology (iii) Nominate qualified female staff for training and hydrology, which are complex branches and educational opportunities; of natural sciences, we have successfully gone Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

through the inertial phase and can now look addition, the outcome of the Conference will be forward to building on our past achievements. submitted to the forthcoming World Meteorological Congress in May 2003 for its In any case, while remaining consistent with the consideration. goal of maintaining the highest standards of efficiency and competence, we all believe that It has been said that the distance between reality there is continuing need for the implementation and a desirable vision is creative energy. I of gender mainstreaming measures and policies. daresay, your presence and enthusiasm are The ultimate objective is that there should be no evidence of your shared, desirable vision and I such thing as “women’s issues” in our field. In assess this gathering of experts as being rich with this regard, I wish to assure you of WMO’s talent, wisdom, commitment and creative energy. continued commitment to promote the I wish you all a pleasant stay among us and involvement of women in WMO activities. In success in your deliberations.

Sustainability science in Africa

Keynote Address at the African Regional Workshop on Sustainability Science (Abuja, Nigeria, 13 November 2001)

Introduction sustainability. This requires in-depth exploration 50 of goals, trends and transition on the pathway There is growing international concern about towards sustainability, including consideration of seeking new and deeper understanding of the environmental threats and opportunities, and complex interaction between human society and relevant actions. A very crucial element is the the environment. This is relevant to the quest for recognition of the multi-dimensional interactions, sustainable development — a development including the human dimension; hence, the which “meets the needs of the present without necessity for the participation of not only those compromising the ability of the future in the natural sciences, but also of those in the generations to meet their own needs”. Since it is social sciences. A group of scientists that met at generally recognized that the world’s present Friibergh Manor near Stockholm, Sweden, about development path is not sustainable, in spite of a year ago addressed this subject (Kates, 2001). It substantial efforts to achieve this goal in the last was noted that, in order for the work in decade, the world community is now focusing sustainability science to progress, the following attention on what needs to be done in its quest to three priority tasks are needed: achieve sustainable development. In this connection, it has been increasingly recognized (a) Development of a research framework for that to meet the needs of society and its growing the science of sustainable development that population, and to avoid further undermining the integrates global and local perspectives to Earth’s essential life-support systems, a new shape a place-based understanding of the paradigm of scientific inquiry needs to be interactions between environment and invoked. It is a paradigm that addresses the society; complex interaction between the various (b) Initiation of focused research programmes components of the Earth system, the interaction on a small set of understudied questions with society, together with the impact of society that are central to a deeper understanding on the Earth system. of those interactions; and (c) Promotion of a better utilization of existing This paradigm has now been referred to as tools and processes for linking knowledge “sustainability science”, that is, science and to action in pursuit of a sustainable technology in service of a transition towards transition. Chapter 2 — WMO: Addressing Sustainable Development and Agenda 21

Hence, by its very nature, sustainability science accompanying concerns brought about by rapid will differ in fundamental ways from most sciences urbanization and the growth of megacities. In known to us today. There will be an emphasis on sub-Saharan Africa, the current population of 600 action and social learning, in addition to the more million is projected to reach 1.7 billion by 2050, classical scientific approach involving hypotheses displaying the fastest rate of increase of any major formulation, observation, verification, understand- subregion in the world. The rate of population ing and prediction. This African Regional growth is double that of food production, thus Workshop on Sustainability Science seeks to necessitating food importation. For Nigeria, the contribute to the furtherance of sustainability population is projected to more than double and science by addressing the relevant areas of to reach approximately 244 million in 2050; concern, particularly in the context of the trends, Lagos is expected to become one of the world’s developments and needs relating to sustainable megacities with a projected population of development in Africa. It seeks to bring together 24million by 2020. men and women from various disciplines to discuss and meet the challenges of this new, inte- Moreover, 340 million people in Africa, or half its grated and interdisciplinary science. The population, live on less than US$ 1 per day, a Workshop also seeks to initiate the identification measure of poverty level. Only 58 per cent of the of pertinent African regional priorities as a contri- population has access to safe water. The rate of bution to the preparation for the World Summit on illiteracy for people over 15 is 41 per cent. There Sustainable Development (RIO+10 Conference) to are only 18 mainline telephones per 1 000 peo- be held next year in Johannesburg. ple, compared with 146 for the world as a whole and 567 for high-income countries (Organization of African Unity, 2001). Background consideration In addition, Africa has constantly to face a When the International Council for Science number of challenges which have major (ICSU) initiated the Global Change Programme in implications for sustainable development. These 51 the early 1980s, Africa was a part of the world include globalization, unfavourable terms of that was experiencing such a change. Sub- trade, increasing debt burdens, declining Saharan Africa had been experiencing severe agricultural production, political instability and drought that first manifested itself in the mid- civil strife. These are exacerbated by recurrent 1960s. That drought had affected food floods and droughts as well as by other natural production that resulted in famine, water disasters, which set back the economies of a shortages, malnutrition and diseases; overgrazing number of countries and thus sustainable in the Sahel and the over-exploitation of fuel development. Moreover, there is a wide spectrum wood contributed to the promotion of of concerns relating to the health and well-being desertification in the semi-arid areas of western of the people, particularly the pervasive Africa. In short, there was an overall degradation HIV/AIDS crisis and malaria. Furthermore, science of the environment, a situation that was and technology have been poorly funded. unsustainable. The experience in Africa was Laboratory equipment is inadequate in many partly responsible for the setting up of the schools and institutions of higher learning. Brundtland Commission that produced the now Advanced research infrastructure is non-existent often-quoted publication Our Common Future, in in many universities, a factor that has contributed which the concept of sustainable development of to brain drain in Africa. the Earth system emerged. In response, the African countries have adopted a In addressing sustainable development and common approach to address these concerns. sustainability science, it is helpful to consider a The New African Initiative, approved by the number of trends and developments. A major Organization of African Unity Summit in July consideration is the increasing population and the 2001, seeks to eradicate poverty and to place requirement for meeting its needs. The current African countries, individually and collectively, on world population is just over six billion and is a path of sustainable growth and development. projected to reach the 10 billion mark by 2050 (United Nations Population Fund, 1998). About The Programme of Action contained therein iden- half of the people live in cities, with the tifies a number of sectoral priorities and expands Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

on several initiatives to address the pertinent and the future. Sustainability science is areas of concern. These initiatives include those responding to this need for a new vision. A major on human resources development, infrastructure, step for laying down the framework of diversification of production and exports, market sustainability science was in the groundbreaking access, resource mobilization, capital flow and meeting at Friibergh Manor. This framework the environment. Moreover, specific areas of identified an initial set of core questions for action are also developed which include those sustainability science to address. These seek to addressing poverty reduction, health, education, draw research attention to understanding the information and communication technology, basic character of interactions between nature energy, transport, water and sanitation, science and society; such understanding needs to also and technology platform, agriculture, desertifica- address the interactions of global processes with tion, wetland conservation, coastal management the ecological and social characteristics of and global warming. particular places and sectors. In addition, these questions draw attention to society’s capacity to In addition, the African Regional Round-table of guide the relevant interactions towards a more Eminent Persons was organized by the United sustainable pathway. Addressing these core Nations in Cairo (Egypt) in June of this year, in questions as they relate to Africa will be which it was my privilege to participate. It challenging, demanding much creativity and brought together a select group of Africans to resourcefulness. provide a contribution to the development of African perspectives and concerns for The Friibergh meeting also highlighted the consideration at the forthcoming World Summit importance of developing appropriate research on Sustainable Development (RIO+10) in strategies. In moving towards global Johannesburg next year. sustainability, a basic challenge is to undertake wide-ranging but integrated studies of the Earth It is noteworthy that the Summit is being system as a whole, in its full functional and 52 convened to assess progress in sustainable geographical complexity. At the same time, there development and review the progress that the is a need to pursue the more applied scientific world community has made in its path to understanding required to help human societies sustainable development since the United Nations develop in ways that sustain the global life Conference on Environment and Development support systems. Sustainable development (UNCED) was held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in requires an ongoing adaptive, learning process. 1992. Since it is generally accepted that the There is a need to build a strategy for using objectives of Rio have not been fully met, the scientific and technical knowledge as the basis Summit will also consider a more realistic agenda for future actions in a number of areas. whose objectives can be met in the face of current developments such as globalization and Research carried out in recent years demonstrates market liberalization. It will also seek “to clearly that the Earth system behaves as a single, reinvigorate the global commitment to, and self-regulating system comprised of physical, achieve a higher level of international solidarity chemical, biological and human components. The and partnership in, the promotion of sustainable interactions and feedback between the development”. Indeed, this Workshop is one in a component parts are complex and exhibit multi- series of regional workshops on sustainability scale temporal and spatial variability. A science being organized to contribute towards a fundamental aspect is the very significant synthesis that will feed also into the RIO+10 influence of human activities on the Earth’s Conference in 2002. environment. As regards the continued emission of greenhouse gases into the Earth’s atmosphere, the Third Assessment Report of the WMO/UNEP The research challenge Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), has concluded that “there is new and A new vision for international partnership and stronger evidence that most of the warming cooperation as well as a new form of social observed over the last 50 years is attributable to arrangement between science and society will be human activities” (IPCC, 2001a). In addition, necessary for the sciences to address effectively humankind is irrevocably modifying the Earth’s major sustainable development issues of today land surface, cryosphere, oceans and coasts, as Chapter 2 — WMO: Addressing Sustainable Development and Agenda 21 well as the water cycle, ecosystem and many (f) Contributing to the quest for food security biogeochemical processes. and poverty alleviation.

However, the changes occurring cannot be fully understood in terms of simple cause-and-effect Human dimension relationships. Anthropogenic effects have multiple consequences in the highly complex It cannot be overemphasized that in the context non-linear Earth system; these interact with each of sustainability science, addressing the above other and with local and regional changes in a areas must be linked with the human dimensions manner that is difficult to understand and even of global environmental change. These include: more difficult to predict. Moreover, the dynamics of the Earth system appear to be characterized by (a) Understanding the major human causes of critical thresholds and abrupt changes, which changes in the global environment and how could be inadvertently triggered by human they vary over time, across space, and activities, with severe consequences for the between economic sectors and social Earth’s environment and its inhabitants. In terms groups; of several key environmental parameters, the (b) Determining the human consequences of Earth system has already moved outside the range global environmental change on key life- of natural variability exhibited in humankind’s support systems, such as water, air, natural history. The nature of changes, their magnitude ecosystems and agriculture, and and rates of change are unprecedented. These determining the impacts on economic and also suggest that the world’s present social systems; development path is not sustainable; to meet (c) Developing a scientific foundation for human needs while preserving the life support evaluating the potential human responses systems of the planet requires a worldwide to global change, their effectiveness and acceleration in moving the transition forward to cost, and the basis for deciding among the sustainability. range of options; and 53 (d) Understanding the underlying social In this connection, the World Meteorological processes or driving forces behind the Organization (WMO) — the lead United Nations human relationship to the global agency concerned with meteorology, climate, environment, such as human attitudes and hydrology and related environmental science — behaviour, population dynamics, is urgently tackling a number of the scientific institutions, and economic and issues to be faced, including: technological transformations.

(a) Documenting how the global climate and the Earth’s environment have changed in A framework for action: core the past; studies in Africa (b) Understanding changes in the climate system on all time-scales and improving the Progress in sustainability science and meeting the ability to predict climate variability and types of research challenges outlined above will change, including inter-seasonal scales as require unprecedented interdisciplinary well as desertification; cooperation and coordination to bring separate (c) Identifying the factors that influence scientific elements into an integrated framework. natural disasters (such as floods, droughts), There is a need to bring together scientists in all and other extreme weather events, as well fields of environmental research (e.g., physical as how to mitigate their adverse effects; climate scientists, atmospheric chemists, experts (d) Addressing fundamental issues relating to in biogeochemical processes, social scientists and water resources development, particularly economists). Relevant national, regional and assessment of water resources, quantity and global environmental and social programmes quality; should be strengthened and developed, as (e) Contributing to questions on environmental appropriate, by governments, concerned United quality such as pollution levels, transport of Nations agencies, the scientific community, and transboundary pollution and ozone layer private and public funding institutions; indeed, by depletion; and all stakeholders. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

This Workshop also seeks to identify core areas achieved, agricultural growth must take place in a of studies to address priority sustainable way that safeguards the natural environment. This development concerns in Africa. In this context, is underscored by the fact that in addition to the term “Africa” is used as a convenient being a significant source of food, agriculture is geographical expression. The continent is not also the primary way of life in Africa. About 70 really homogenous; there is much variety in per cent of the population live on farming and 40 terms of population distribution, climate, per cent of exports are agricultural products. An landform, biota, culture and socio-economic index of food security has been established, circumstances. This is important to recall as based on trends in food production, available sustainability science requires the development food as a percentage of requirements and arable of place based (i.e., site-specific) strategies and land per capita. Relative to other regions in the approaches. world, African regions (with the exception of North Africa) have the lowest food security With respect to African priority concerns, we can index. At the same time, these regions have the identify eight areas of particular concern that can lowest ability to adapt to further changes, as be included for consideration, namely food indicated by the United Nations Development security, natural resources management and Programme (UNDP) Human Development Index, biodiversity, desertification, water resources, a composite of measures of life expectancy, natural disasters, health and diseases, coastal literacy, education and income. zones and sea-level rise, in addition to African climate projection. While we can certainly “What can be done in the context of address each of these areas separately, there is a sustainability science?” is a question that this need to recognize that they interact with each workshop could address. In responding to this, it other and that there are feedback loops, is useful to recall that Africa has substantial including in terms of the human dimension. For natural and human resources that can be availed instance, these concerns, individually and of, to make regional gains in food security. Ways 54 collectively, could trigger movement of to have such gains are through, for example: populations, with resulting possible alteration in social structure, cultural identity and political (a) Application of biotechnology in developing stability. These, in turn, can exacerbate the new crop varieties (an example is the problems associated with sustainable development of New Rice for Africa development. In this connection, the (NERICA) varieties by the West African comprehensive IPCC Third Assessment Report Rice Development Authority (WARDA) provides very useful material, as it addresses with support of its partners; these rice these concerns in relation to the impact of varieties can provide 50 per cent more climate change (IPCC, 2001b). grain than current varieties when cultivated with traditional rain-fed system without fertilizer); Food security (b) Improving irrigation systems by undertaking research on water availability Of the 49 Least Developed Countries of the in terms of quality and quantity, in its world, Africa hosts 34. In 46 per cent of the distribution and cost-effective utilization; countries in sub-Saharan Africa, the (c) Improved interdisciplinary approach to undernourished have an average deficit of more increasing agricultural yield, through than 300 kilocalories per person per day. Africa is science-based information, assessment and also the only region of the developing world prediction, together with extension work where the regional average of food production and good communications with the farming per person has been declining over the last 40 community; and years. Food production in most of sub-Saharan (d) Science-based climate variability forecasts Africa has not kept abreast with the population and assessments which can help decision increase. In Africa as a whole, food consumption makers to take appropriate measures on exceeded domestic production by 50 per cent food availability. during the mid-1980s (when severe droughts were prevalent) and more than 30 per cent in the 1990s. In order for development goals to be Chapter 2 — WMO: Addressing Sustainable Development and Agenda 21 Natural resources management and Desertification biodiversity The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as The Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) “land degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry subhu- reported that in Africa, forests cover five million mid areas resulting from various factors including square kilometres, that is, a sixth of the continent’s climatic variations and human activities”. In Africa, land area. Forest and woodland species provide such areas cover 13 million square kilometres or firewood, structural timber, traditional medicines, 43 per cent of the continent’s land area, on which staple food and drought emergency food. A large 270 million people, or 40 per cent of the conti- part of the population lives in rural areas and nent’s population, live. Some 250 000 people depends on trees and shrubs for its subsistence perished in the Sahel drought of 1968–1973, and needs. Firewood and charcoal provide approxi- this demonstrated the tragic human dimension of mately 70 per cent of energy used in Africa. desertification.

With this intensive use of forest species, there is Desertification in Africa has reduced by 25 per bound to be an effect on indigenous biodiversity. cent the potential vegetative productivity of more Africa has about a fifth of all known species of than 7 million square kilometres, or one-fourth of plants, mammals and birds as well as one-sixth of Africa’s land areas. A particularly critical area of known amphibian and reptile species. This study that should be undertaken is on the relative biodiversity provides an important resource for importance of anthropogenic and climatic factors the African people. in causing desertification. The major anthropogenic factors are unsustainable agricultural In the medium term, biodiversity of flora and practices, overgrazing and deforestation. fauna is likely to be affected by environmental Population growth is certainly also an element for changes, including climate change. Africa is consideration. On the other hand, precipitation highly characterized by ecosystem control and temperature determine the potential distribu- 55 through disturbance, such as fire and grazing tion of terrestrial vegetation and constitute regimes. Such changing disturbance regimes will principal factors in the genesis and evolution of interact with climate change in a significant way soil. Certainly, there are feedback mechanisms to control biodiversity, for example through rapid among the climate factors as well as between them discontinuous ecosystem “switches”. This subject and the anthropogenic factors. There is also the provides a rich area for further scientific studies, need for further studies to consider and address together with the associated human dimension the vicious cycle linking desertification to environ- analysis. There is much that can still be done mental change. As desertification proceeds, toward developing theory and application to agricultural and livestock yields decline, thus predict the extent and nature of future ecosystem reducing the population’s survival options. switches and species geographical shifts in Africa. Moreover, the people lose vital ecosystem services such as firewood, traditional medicines species Work can also be further enhanced in developing and emergency food species, which render them mitigation and adaptation strategies that can be more vulnerable to future environmental change. strengthened by collaboration among countries and across disciplines. In this connection, the Another area of study that should be further United Nations Convention on Biological looked into in the adaptation to desertification Diversity (CBD) can provide a framework. With involves the diversification of the use of resources. respect to addressing declining tree resources, For instance, in southern Kenya, Masai herders adaptation strategies should be developed which have adopted farming as a supplement to, or include natural regeneration of local species, replacement for, livestock herding. In the future, energy-efficient cooking stoves, sustainable forest seasonal climate forecasting may assist farmers and management and community-based resource herders to know times of higher probability of management. For instance, it has been reported success of resource diversification. In addition to that cooking stoves in Senegal and Kenya have seasonal forecasts in Africa, user communication been produced with energy efficient gains. and interaction also need to be improved. These Similar applications should be explored in the are areas where scientists can cooperate in context of sustainability science. support of sustainability science. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

Water resources addressed, including population pressure, problems associated with land use (such as Better management of fresh water will be a key to erosion/siltation), and possible ecological the improvement of health and sustainable consequences of land-use change on the economic development in many countries in hydrological cycle. Climate change — especially Africa. Water quantity and quality assessments changes in climate variability that could result in should go hand in hand, while the planning and droughts and floods — will make addressing management of water resources must take into these problems more complex. The greatest account the likelihood of floods and droughts. impact will continue to be felt by the poor, who The sustainable management of the available have the most limited access to water resources. fresh water is essential for economic and social The required studies should address the well-being. Fresh water has already become following, among other issues: critically scarce, the global mean per capita runoff has shown a decrease by over 40 per cent (a) Research into affordable water purification since 1970, to 7 600 m3 per capita per year, most systems; notably in Africa, Asia and Europe. There are now (b) Research into desalinization of sea water; eight African countries that have renewable (c) Water-use strategies — especially demand freshwater resources under 1 000 m3 per capita management — in industry, settlements per year, commonly accepted as a benchmark for and agriculture; freshwater scarcity. In these water-scarce (d) Shared basin management, necessitating countries, competition for water for agricultural, international agreements; domestic and industrial purposes is clearly (e) Intensified monitoring to improve data evident. Some estimates suggest that, currently, reliability; the amount of fresh water available for each (f) intensive research into flood control person in Africa is about one-quarter of what it management technology; and was in 1950, while in Asia and South America, it (g) Innovation in building designs (e.g., to 56 is about one-third. The situation is getting worse minimize urban flooding). as a consequence of rapid population growth, expanding urbanization, as well as increased In this connection, there is an urgent need to agricultural and industrial use. In 2000, about 300 intensify the density of monitoring stations to million Africans lived in a water-scarce improve climate change scenarios. The cost of environment. By 2025, the number of countries rehabilitating stations that are in disrepair is not in Africa experiencing water stress will rise to beyond the financial capability of African States. 18—thus affecting 600 million people. The strategic importance of these facilities should be recognized. Whatever strategies are adopted The competition for freshwater resources is for optimizing water availability, the successful expected to grow and the pressure on these development of such strategies is contingent on resources will continue to increase in the reliable meteorological and hydrological foreseeable future, as the population rises. information. Freshwater shortage is expected to be the most dominant water problem in this century and one that, along with water quality, could well Natural disasters jeopardize all other efforts to secure sustainable development, and could even lead to social and Floods, droughts, storms, earthquakes, landslides political instability in some cases. As a result of and other natural disasters all contribute to an difficult economic conditions, insufficient enormous annual toll of human suffering, loss of knowledge of the freshwater resources in Africa lives and property damage in Africa. Over 70 per is often at the heart of many water-related cent of all natural disasters are related to weather problems. It is therefore important to address and climate. The cost of these disasters is enor- these issues, especially in the context of mous. There are social costs in terms of the sustainability science. affected population. In the past 20 years, natural disasters worldwide have killed over three million Research studies are needed to support efforts at people (with 90 per cent of deaths occurring in providing adequate water resources for Africa. In the developing countries), inflicted injuries, facili- these efforts, several challenges have to be tated the spread of diseases and displaced over Chapter 2 — WMO: Addressing Sustainable Development and Agenda 21 one billion people. Annual economic losses related Health and diseases to natural disasters have been estimated at about US$ 50–100 billion globally. Africa has its share of Africa is facing a health crisis of historic losses. For the year 2000 alone, more than a thou- proportion, which contributes to, and is sand lives were lost in connection with natural exacerbated by, poverty (United Nations, 2001). disasters that struck four countries (Egypt, Africa is even more vulnerable to diseases due to Madagascar, Mozambique and Zimbabwe). hunger and malnutrition. The seriousness of this Moreover, associated economic losses for just five health crisis, particularly the devastation due to countries in Africa (Botswana, Morocco, HIV/AIDS, has been recognized by African Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe) were Governments. Twenty-four African countries estimated to total US$ 1.8 billion. For Mozambique figure among those most affected by HIV/AIDS. alone, the damage due to the flooding disaster in The first OAU Summit on HIV/AIDS and other the year 2000 represents 11.6 per cent of its GNP infectious diseases was held in Abuja in April of (Cornford, 2001). this year.

The Mozambique floods were fed by tropical Malaria is also a serious problem in Africa. It has cyclone Eline that also affected Botswana, been estimated that malaria slows economic Madagascar, Swaziland, South Africa and growth in Africa by up to 1.3 per cent each year. Zimbabwe. It has been reported that much of the It has been reported that malaria-free countries development that Mozambique had achieved average three times higher per capita gross since the end of the civil war in 1992 had been domestic product than other countries with swept away by the worst flooding in south- malaria epidemics, even after adjusting for eastern Africa in the past century. Almost a fifth different relevant factors, such as government of the country’s only highway, as well as large policy and geography. The Harare Declaration on sections of railway linking the country to Malaria Control of 1997 underscores the Zimbabwe, were destroyed. importance of addressing the control of malaria. 57 The damage and costs inflicted by natural Moreover, there is increasing evidence that disasters often extend well beyond the affected climate has a significant role in malaria countries or regions, to their immediate epidemics. In a highland area of Rwanda, for neighbours, and sometimes to the wider global example, malaria incidence increased by 337 per community. No nation can afford to ignore the cent in 1987, and 80 per cent of this variation growing impact of natural disasters. Many African could be explained by rainfall and temperature. A countries are highly vulnerable to the ravages of similar association has been reported in natural disasters. Zimbabwe. Other epidemics in East Africa have been associated largely with El Niño. Yet technical means exist, and others are under Understanding how climate affects the further development from the application of the transmission of these diseases will lead to sciences, to reduce losses through improved warn- enhanced preparedness for early and effective ing and preparedness systems, all-hazard risk interventions. assessments for design of safer structures, land-use zoning in areas prone to natural disasters, and Communities that are exposed to water-borne other means. This is one area where greater diseases such as cholera could reduce the risk of emphasis can be given to enhancing the use of infections by using safe drinking water technolo- information, research results and technology gies. Several simple and inexpensive techniques which are already known and available. One iden- have been found to be effective in reducing the tifiable adaptive measure against extreme events risk of infection with cholera from contaminated that should be addressed relates to the state of water. It has been found that a simple filtration preparedness to give adequate warning of immi- procedure involving the use of domestic “sari” nent danger and deliver relief. Facilities to material can reduce the number of cholera vibrio broadcast timely information of developing events, attached to plankton in raw water from ponds and such as storms to rural populations, remain weak rivers commonly used as source for drinking and can be improved. Natural disaster mitigation water. The use of 5 per cent calcium hypochlorite plans should be developed and/or enhanced and to disinfect water and subsequent storage of financial resources should be earmarked. treated water in a narrow-mouthed jar produced Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

drinking water, from non-potable sources, that coastal defence work, planned on a long time- met the standards of the World Health scale, will help to develop such defenses well Organization (WHO) for microbiologic quality. In before the crisis occurs. This also helps to spread many cases, boiling water is not possible because the total capital costs over many years. As the of scarcity of firewood and charcoal, particularly problem of coastal management is basically in flooded conditions. These examples of regional, further studies should include: processes and low-cost technologies should be further studied and be made widely available to (a) Regional integration among coastal-zone populations that are likely to be impacted by cont- States; aminated water supplies, especially following (b) Recognition by all governments in the extreme flooding events. region of regional vulnerability to climate change impacts; and Furthermore, there is a need to strengthen (c) Political and institutional stability that health/medical research, including research into allows inter-generational projects to be traditional medicines, which should be sustained without interruption from considered as a priority. Here, the Convention on political upheavals. Biological Diversity comes into play. African climate projection Coastal zones and sea level rise Observational records show that the African In Africa, as elsewhere, there is heavy continent is warmer than it was 100 years ago. concentration of human settlements within 100 Warming through the 20th century has been at kilometres of coastal zones. More than one- the rate of about 0.05°C per decade, with slightly quarter of the population of Africa resides within greater warming in the June-to-August and 100 kilometres of a sea coast, thus rendering a September-to-November seasons than at other 58 significant number of people vulnerable to rises times. The five warmest years in Africa have all in sea level as a result of climate change. occurred since 1988, with 1988 and 1995 being the two warmest years. This rate of warming is Changes in climatic conditions would have severe not dissimilar to that experienced globally, and impacts not only on the pattern of distribution of the periods of most rapid warming — the 1910s human settlements but also on the quality of life to the 1930s and the post-1970s — occurred in particular areas. modelling the effects of a simultaneously in Africa and the world. projected 38-centimetres mean global sea-level rise in 2080, it was estimated that the average The climate in Africa has experienced wetter and annual number of people in Africa impacted by drier intervals during the past two centuries. The flooding could increase from one million in 1990 most pronounced periods were during the 20th to a worst case of 70 million in 2080. It was also century. A very intense dry period, much like the indicated that the capital of The Gambia, Banjul, current one, also prevailed for two to three could disappear in 50–60 years through coastal decades during the first half of the 19th century. erosion and sea-level rise, putting more than Humid conditions reminiscent of the 1950s 42 000 people at risk. There are also threats to prevailed around the 1870s or 1880s, but another coastal areas of Egypt and East Africa from sea- milder arid interval of roughly 20 years level changes. commenced around 1895.

Studies should be undertaken relating to response Studies have been undertaken to have a strategies to rising sea level and its physical comprehensive characterization of regional impact: retreat, adapt or defend. Strategies should climate change projections for the 21st century. result in an ordered, planned programme that An analysis conducted specifically for Africa has minimizes losses from rising sea level and projected future annual warming across Africa maximizes the cost-effectiveness of the operation. from 0.2 to more than 0.5°C per decade. This This should give due consideration to rendering warming is greatest over the interior of semi-arid the area to be left as aesthetic looking as possible margins of the Sahara and central southern Africa. and to avoid adverse effects on other social and The intermodel range (an indicator of the extent economic activities. Studies on undertaking of agreement between different general Chapter 2 — WMO: Addressing Sustainable Development and Agenda 21 circulation models (GCMs)) is smallest over north direction by many groups of scientists and Africa and the Equator and greatest over the through international programmes. For example, interior of southern Africa. Future changes in the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), mean seasonal rainfall in Africa are less well which WMO jointly sponsors with ICSU and the defined. Under the lowest warming scenario, few Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission areas experience changes in (IOC) of the United Nations Education, Scientific December–January–February (DJF) or June–July– and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), is joining August (JJA) that exceed two standard deviations forces with the International Geosphere- of natural variability by 2050. The exceptions are Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the parts of equatorial east Africa, where rainfall International Human Dimensions Programme of increases by 5–20 per cent in DJF and decreases Global Environmental Change in studies of food by 5–10 per cent in JJA. systems and water resources. In the first, the impact of global environmental change on food Under the two intermediate warming scenarios, production and the availability of food significant decreases (10–20 per cent) in rainfall throughout the world, and vulnerability in during March to November, which include the different regions and among different social critical grain-filling period, are apparent in north groups, are being evaluated. Key supporting Africa in almost all models by 2050, as are 5–15 themes are how different societies and different per cent decreases in rainfall during the categories of producers might adapt their food growing-season (November to May) rainfall in systems to cope with global change and changing southern Africa. Under the most rapid global demands, and what the environmental and socio- warming scenario, increasing areas of Africa economic consequences of adaptation to these experience significant changes in summer or changes are. winter rainfall.

Analyses were undertaken of future rainfall Capacity and institution changes for three African regions — the Sahel, building 59 east Africa and southeast Africa — to illustrate the extent of intermodel differences for these regions The agenda for sustainability science needs to be and to put future modelled changes in the expanded and deepened, and the issue of context of past observed changes. Although capacity and institution building must also be model results vary, there is a general consensus addressed. There is a need to reinforce the for more moisture in east Africa, drying in south- involvement of, and interactions between, east Africa, and a poorly specified outcome for development agencies, scientists and the Sahel. environmental experts. There is also a need to plan and promote a set of specific focused, In addition, there are further needs that should be research, development and application addressed. One need in formulating adaptive programmes, such as in the areas identified strategies is more refined regional climate change earlier. Such specific projects could spring from scenarios — especially a better understanding of regional workshops such as this, and hopefully be extreme events. In southern Africa, for example, the basis for attracting the development resources most of the regional climate change scenarios are and investments that are required. rather ambivalent with regard to precipitation. In the 1998–1999 season, the city of Harare suffered In this regard, it is necessary once again to stress damage to its roads because sewer transport that the existing infrastructure and capacity are could not cope with entrained storm water. If it inadequate in Africa. Virtually no country, region were accepted that the frequency of such seasons or sector is well placed to meet the unique needs would increase, future designs of infrastructure of integrating across many different scientific amenities would take cognizance of that disciplines or of fostering the interaction prediction. necessary for making progress in sustainability science. There is a need to develop an Moreover, it is important to underscore the need appropriate enabling environment. Generating to incorporate the human dimension and cross- adequate scientific capacity and institutional linkages in climate change and its variability. support is particularly urgent. In this respect, the Significant steps are already being taken in this development of centres of excellence in Africa is Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

a sine qua non. There are some centres of Concluding remarks excellence that can be identified already and can be further developed such as the ones for The World Summit on Sustainable Development, mathematics in Abuja, for biotechnology in to be held in South Africa next year, provides an Kampala and Harare, and for solar energy in Dar- opportunity for connecting science to the es-Salaam. political agenda for sustainable development. Most importantly, science must be directed at Such centres can provide the needed foci in their exploring further the character of nature and specialized fields for which other centres in society interactions and how to guide these Africa, as well as elsewhere, could be networked interactions along sustainable pathways. Broad for specialized work. Moreover, networking with discussions in the scientific community in both centres in other relevant disciplines, again within the developing and developed worlds must be and outside Africa, will facilitate the needed encouraged regarding key questions, appropriate interdisciplinary synergy. These networking methodologies and institutional needs. arrangements will help towards bridging the gap in the level of development in relevant fields, In light of the above, it should be clear that there particularly in the so-called digital divide between is a need for a strategic framework for the further North and South. development of sustainability science at the international, regional and national levels. Such a The advances in the field of information and framework should include the strengthening of communication technology, notably the Internet, the needed scientific base and capacity in the offer an excellent infrastructure that can link relevant disciplines, within the overall sustainable interdisciplinary research teams and support the development strategy. essentially distributed activities involved in sustainability science. However, there are still In this connection, I wish to underscore that barriers to this form of communication in Africa, enhanced partnership and cooperation should be 60 and progress in sustainability science will depend fostered among the various stakeholders to on remedying the lack of a networking facilitate the development of appropriate infrastructure fully embracing all countries. In strategies to ensure integrated activities and the this connection, there is a need to attract provision of related services, including the multilateral, government, private-foundation and necessary monitoring of Earth system private-sector sources of funding to redress the components. Such cooperation should lead to the situation. support for sustainable development activities, through, among other things, the provision of Moreover, African national science academies advance warning on the occurrence of natural can play a crucial role in the furtherance of sus- disasters, improved predictions such as those for tainability science in Africa. Their establishment the El Niño phenomenon and climate change, as and/or strengthening should be promoted. The well as those relevant to the management of range of disciplines in such science academies water and other natural resources and for the should be sufficiently broad to allow for the protection of environmental quality. This should required range of disciplines to address African also result in a more effective contribution to the areas of concern within the realm of sustainabili- regional climate change assessments of the ty science. In particular, the interaction among Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the social and natural scientists is an imperative. to the implementation of international In this connection, the Third World Academy of environmental instruments such as the United Sciences and the African Academy of Sciences Nations Framework Convention on Climate should provide the necessary encouragement and Change, its Convention to Combat Desertifi- support in this endeavour. cation, and its Convention on Biological Diversity. The African Academy of Sciences is known to be undertaking the preparation of a directory of Moreover, appropriate information, public affairs African scientists and their specialization. Such a and advocacy activities should also be undertaken directory can help in identifying who is doing to ensure that policy makers and the public what and where; this can help further recognize the contributions of sustainability interdisciplinary programmes. science to sustainable development, and that they Chapter 2 — WMO: Addressing Sustainable Development and Agenda 21 are encouraged to provide the necessary the greatest scientists the world has produced, institutional, policy and resources support. These Albert Einstein, who said, “The significant are also needed to remind us of our stewardship problems we face cannot be solved at the same role vis-à-vis nature. level of thinking we were when we created them”. I hope that this address has helped in identifying certain areas of concern that could contribute to In closing I hope that each one of us in this the discussions during this Workshop and in the Workshop can recommit ourselves to play our formulation of appropriate recommendations respective roles and contribute our share, so that suitable to the African context, as we search for a sustainability science can truly be in the full new perspective in addressing the synergy in service of present and future generations of science and society and develop partnerships in humankind, leading to peace, security and sustainability science, in particular. In this prosperity — our desired common future, our connection, I wish to recall the words of one of common journey.

Statement on the occasion of the ministerial segment of the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD)1

(Johannesburg, South Africa, 29 August 2002)

The Fourth PrepCom in Bali, in June this year, Development (NEPAD), of which President Mbeki is 61 formally closed the preparatory process for the among the Founding Fathers, is indeed a good exam- World Summit on Sustainable Development ple of “Type 2” partnerships and initiatives. Given (WSSD), and crowned the preparations for the wide international support that NEPAD enjoys, Johannesburg with two types of expected we hope that WSSD will give the endorsement and outcomes which are before the Summit for its support necessary for making NEPAD an effective consideration and adoption. The outcomes include regional mechanism for promoting and strengthen- guidance on the implementation of the negotiated ing the efforts of the African countries and peoples document and on “Type 2” partnerships and initia- in their quest for sustainable development. tives. The “Type 2” partnerships will not, of course, replace the obligations and commitments Johannesburg marks a renewed commitment to of governments and stakeholders, but will the process initiated at the 1992 United Nations nonetheless be important tools for complementing Conference on Environment and Development the implementation of Agenda 21 and the (UNCED) but, more importantly, it is the begin- outcomes of WSSD. The World Meteorological ning of a journey into the 21st century. The Organization (WMO) therefore calls upon the Summit must assure the current generation that Summit to give precise guidelines, which will we will leave for future generations a healthier and provide a clear division of labour among the part- more equitable society, a better-protected environ- ners, and calls for the regulation of the ment, and a better and more prosperous world for relationships and coordination between the obliga- all to live in. We are here because we believe in a tory and voluntary processes and procedures for common and thriving destiny; because the world implementation of the outcomes of WSSD. community has placed considerable trust and high hopes in this Summit; and because societies the The concept of partnerships among all stakeholders world over, including children, youth, women and is an innovative idea which, if it functions effectively, the elderly, deserve better protection and will be one of the important outcomes of this improved status in society. They want us here in Summit. The New Partnership for Africa’s Johannesburg to produce tangible results. The

1 Chaired by Mr Kofi Annan, Secretary-General of the United Nations Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

Summit should generate the political will and systematic monitoring, assessment and commitment essential for practical implementa- management; and tion of the outcomes of WSSD. The success of the • The reduction and prevention of the negative Summit should not be measured by the mere impacts of environmental degradation, consensus adoption of the documents that will climate change and other extreme weather- emerge, such as the Johannesburg Declaration and and climate-related natural disasters and Programme for Sustainable Development. Rather, events. it will be the translation into tangible results of the measures and recommendations enshrined in Over the last three decades, and especially since these documents that will make Johannesburg a UNCED, apart from the visible deterioration of the resounding success. environment, a number of disturbing trends in weather, water and climate have been observed. I The world community wants us to succeed in will highlight just a few to demonstrate the range Johannesburg with the determined and committed of issues that require our attention and decisive resolve to find ways and means, among others, to: action, wherever possible:

• Eradicate poverty; (a) The greenhouse gases, and in particular • Assure food security and availability of carbon dioxide (CO2), have continued to adequate clean water; increase unabated: CO2 at the rate of 1.5 • Make globalization fair and equitable to all parts per million by volume (ppm) per year, and grant unconditional access of goods from and which now stands at 370 ppmv, an developing countries to markets of developed increase of 31 per cent since 1750; nitrous countries; oxide (N2O) has increased by 46 ppmv (17 • Assure good governance; per cent) since 1750 and continues to • Contribute towards the reduction of the increase; and methane (CH4) has increased scourges of diseases, including HIV/AIDS, TB by 1060 ppmv (151 per cent) since 1750 62 and malaria; and continues to increase; • Promote the benefits of the global revolution (b) The year 1998 was the warmest, and 2001 in information and communication technol- the second warmest, since records began in ogy (ICT) and of advanced education and 1860. Ten of the warmest years have medical research, through increased applica- occurred since 1990. The 20th century was tions of the advances in science and the warmest over the last 1 000 years; technology to development; (c) The overall global ozone decline during the • Support and enhance national and regional last 25 years, compared to pre-1970s aver- capacities, especially in developing countries, ages, is about 6 per cent, while over the inter alia, through education and training and middle and polar latitudes it is close to 10 other capacity building measures, to enable per cent. Of special concern is that the rate these countries to deal with their own devel- of ozone decline has significantly increased, opment challenges and to attain self-reliance; especially noticeable in the northern hemi- • Forge effective partnerships and initiatives for sphere spring during the 1990s. The the implementation of WSSD initiatives; dividends of measures now being taken will • Provide the means for the implementation of be evident in the next 50 to 70 years; WSSD outcomes, including instituting an effi- (d) The frequency and the impacts of weather-, cient and strengthened institutional water- and climate-related natural disasters framework; securing finance for development have increased from about 360 significant on a predictable, adequate and assured basis. disasters in 1992 to over 700 in 2001. Annually, over 60 000 people are killed and about 200 million are affected by disasters. The world community also expects the outcomes Over 70 per cent of these were people of the Summit to contribute to: affected by hydrometeorological disasters; (e) The 1997–1998 El Niño was the most • The protection and preservation of our global intense ever recorded, with socio-economic commons, including the atmosphere, envi- losses of more than US$ 96 billion and more ronment, water, soil, oceans and their marine than 110 million people affected worldwide; and coastal resources, all of which require Chapter 2 — WMO: Addressing Sustainable Development and Agenda 21

(f) Today, 22 countries have renewable fresh- In this connection, the establishment of a water resources under the scarcity central coordinating advisory mechanism on benchmark of 1 000 m3 per capita per year. science and technology at a senior level The amount of freshwater available to each within the UN system, with an empower- person in Africa is about one-quarter of what ment to forge relevant academic, scientific it was in 1950, while in Asia and South and other interested parties outside of the America it is about one-third of the 1950 UN system, should be called for; amount; (c) Enhance the capacities at all levels and in (g) The levels of atmospheric and water pollu- public and private settings, especially in tion continue to increase, especially in the developing areas, national, subregional, sprawling urban areas; regional, international and global mecha- (h) The projected climate change will have nisms working in science and further impact on the environment. The technology-related fields, and empower WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental. them to make increased contributions to sustainable development; Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has authoritatively (d) Call for the implementation of those activi- stated that “There is new and stronger evidence ties pertaining to the global commons that most of the warming observed over the past articulated in the negotiated implementation 50 years is attributable to human activities.” The document. These include, inter alia: global average temperature is now projected to (i) Promoting the systematic observation increase by 1.4–5.8°C between 1990 and 2100. The of the Earth’s atmosphere by improv- global mean sea level is expected to rise by 9 cm to ing ground-based monitoring stations, 88 cm. This rise will have serious implications for increasing use of satellites, and appro- countries with extensive coastlines and for Small priately integrating these observations Island Developing States (SIDS). In addition, there to produce high-quality data that will be impacts on agriculture, food production, could be disseminated for the use of water resources, health, human settlements and all countries, in particular developing 63 ecosystems, among other things. All of these have a countries; bearing on our efforts aimed at poverty alleviation (ii) Implementing a strategy for integrated and on support for the developing countries and, in global observations to monitor the particular, the Least Developed Countries. Earth’s atmosphere, with the cooperation of relevant international I believe that the global quest for sustainable devel- organizations, especially the United opment is unattainable unless genuine solutions Nations specialized agencies, in coop- are found to these environmental and develop- eration with the secretariat of the ment problems. In this connection, I also believe United Nations Framework that the Summit, as representative of the global Convention on Climate Change; community, should pronounce itself on what it (iii) Developing programmes for mitigat- would like to constitute as the terms and condi- ing the effects of extreme tions for follow-up to Johannesburg, by taking weather-related events; decisions and giving guidelines on whatever it will (iv) Supporting developing countries and take to make WSSD a success. countries with economies in transition in their efforts to monitor, assess To this end, it is desirable that WSSD aim to and manage the quantity and quality accomplish the following, in anticipation of practi- of water resources and improve scien- cal implementation of the Summit outcomes: tific understanding of the water cycle, through cooperation in joint observa- (a) Complete the unfinished business of tion and research, as for example UNCED by implementing fully Agenda 21 through the WMO World Hydrological and the relevant post- UNCED conventions Cycle Observing System (WHYCOS); and related international instruments; promoting effective coordination (b) Recognize, restore and call for reinforcing among the various international and the central role of science and technology in intergovernmental bodies and promoting sustainable development. processes working on water-related Sustainability science should be promoted. issues; Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

(v) Translating available data, particularly bodies, as well as the “Type 2” partnership from WMO’s global meteorological arrangements and initiatives; and observation systems, into timely and • An effective coordination machinery within useful products for socio-economic and outside of the UN system, for effective development activities; implementation and review and appraisal of (vi) Combating desertification and mitigat- WSSD outcomes. ing the effects of droughts and floods through such measures as improved WMO for its part will, through its collaborative use of climate and weather informa- efforts with other relevant organizations, tion and forecasts, early warning contribute, within its mandate, to sustainable systems, land and natural resource development in general, as well as to the follow-up management, agricultural practices to WSSD. In so doing, WMO will pay particular and ecosystems; attention to poverty eradication, and contribute to (vii) Improving the techniques and method- this global effort through, inter alia: ologies for assessing the effects of climate change and encouraging the • Water resources assessment and management; continued assessment of these adverse • Preparedness against natural disasters by effects by the Intergovernmental Panel providing increasingly accurate and longer- on Climate Change. term early warnings; (e) Recognize and enhance the roles of the • Monitoring and assessment of climate change National Meteorological and Hydrological and variability and their impacts; Services (NMHSs) in sustainable develop- • Application of weather, water and climate ment, especially in the protection of life and information to food security, to protection of property, provision of economic and social the environment and of the natural resource benefits to society, and in follow-up to the base, and to the use and management of outcomes of WSSD. In this regard, financial energy, including renewable energy. 64 and other means should be provided to these services to help them develop the WMO will also promote and support the applica- capacities necessary for making commensu- tion of science and technology for development rate contributions to sustainable and will give high priority to capacity building development at local, national, sub-regional efforts of developing countries; partnerships for and regional levels; and sustainable development; and the full implementa- (f) Call for sustained support to self-reliance tion of the relevant parts of Agenda 21 and efforts of developing countries including, in UNCED-related conventions and international particular, support to national and regional instruments. initiatives for sustainable development such as NEPAD, to facilitate and accelerate their In addition, I wish to assure the Summit that WMO implementation. will continue to work with the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services to The Summit should agree and furnish the essential ensure that the unique set of quality- controlled means of implementation of its outcomes such as data and the derived products on weather, water those outlined above. Of the required means, the and climate are made regularly. I also wish to following are fundamental: assure participants that every effort will continue to be made to make these data available, along • Additional and adequate financial resources, with the derived products, free and in an unre- as repeatedly stressed, inter alia, through the stricted manner to all nations of the world, for set Official Development Assistance (ODA) sustainable development activities. targets, the Millennium Development Goals, the Monterrey Consensus on Financing for In conclusion, what has to be done must be done, Development, as well as through national, in a timely and systematic manner. People and bilateral, regional and private arrangements, nations the world over have high hopes for this commitments and agreements; Summit, and expect great results. WSSD offers a • Efficient and effective mechanisms for imple- rare opportunity for genuine success. We cannot, mentation, including relevant organs and therefore, afford to let down the world commu- bodies of the UN system and their governing nity, nor future generations of humankind. CHAPTER 3 UNDERSTANDING PLANET EARTH THROUGH GEOSCIENCES AND RESEARCH1

An overview of research, education and training of the World Meteorological Organization

Lecture at the Faculty of Meteorology, Environment and Arid Lands Studies, King Abdulaziz University (Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, 3 May 1997)

Introduction WMO’s research activities are quite extensive. It is therefore possible to give only a brief overview The advancement of human knowledge has of these activities in this paper. always been an integral part of the objectives of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and its predecessor, the International Support for research activities 65 Meteorological Organization (IMO), throughout their long and productive history. The first The constant need to acquire greater International Meteorological Conference, which knowledge of weather and climate processes, was held in Brussels in 1853, led to the and to apply such knowledge to safeguard and establishment of the non-governmental IMO in improve the human way of life, has placed 1873. IMO was replaced by the special demands for fundamental and applied intergovernmental WMO in 1950 which then research in the science of meteorology and the became a specialized scientific and technical advancement of technologies to meet these agency of the United Nations in 1951. One of the demands. While one of WMO’s primary roles purposes of WMO, as specified in Article 2(f) of involves the planning, organization and its Convention, is to encourage research and coordination of international and regional training in meteorology and, as appropriate, in research activities, actual research is carried related fields and to assist in coordinating the out by the National Meteorological and international aspects of such research and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and associated training. Thus the Organization has continued to or independent research and the academic give great attention to research and training institutions around the world. The various activities and has steadily expanded its efforts in Programmes of WMO not only support the these fields, cooperating fully in research with research efforts of its Members, they also appropriate international scientific bodies, most enable the benefits of internationally notably the International Council of Scientific coordinated research to be shared by the Unions (ICSU) and its constituent unions. Today, global community.

1 Editor’s Note: This Chapter features Prof. Obasi’s strong commitment to science and research, especially in meteorology and hydrology, in order to understand planet Earth. The initial section deals with WMO’s research agenda. This is followed by an address on the broad geosciences, global change studies and their values to society. The special interest in development of geosciences in Africa is presented by one of three major lectures given by Prof. Obasi on this topic. Short statements were given at the launching of several Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) stations for measurement of atmospheric chemical composition, and an example is given. The chapter ends with a thorough review of recent advances in meteorology and their great value to society. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

The Commission for Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme (AREP) Sciences which fosters research in meteorology and related environmental fields and promotes the application of research results and the transfer of WMO’s activities in the various disciplines in technology to developing countries. AREP meteorology and operational hydrology are implements its activities through the four main planned and coordinated by eight Technical components shown in Figure 3.1. One of the Commissions composed of experts in these fields major AREP components is the Global designated by Member countries. Most of the Atmosphere Watch (GAW). GAW ensures the research activities are carried out under the aegis comprehensive monitoring of the concentrations of the WMO Commission for Atmospheric of greenhouse gases, aerosols and stratospheric Sciences (CAS), which cooperates in this regard ozone in the atmosphere, as a direct contribution with other Commissions such as the Commission to research efforts into climate change and the for Climatology (CCl). CAS provides the effects of the changing chemical composition of framework for WMO’s support to global research the atmosphere. Worldwide, 78 countries activities in the atmospheric and related sciences, participate in the GAW measurement with responsibility for research matters in the programme, producing important data as shown following areas: in Figure 3.2. GAW is fundamental to the international efforts under the Vienna Convention • Weather prediction, in time scales from very for the Protection of the Ozone Layer and its short to long range and from the local to the Montreal Protocol, and in support of the UN global scales; Framework Convention on Climate Change. • Atmospheric composition and air pollution; • The physics and chemistry of clouds, in The Weather Prediction Research Programme support of weather prediction and weather assists in the exchange of research results on modification; weather prediction in order to improve Members’ 66 • Tropical meteorology; weather services. Emphasis, on the one hand, is • Climate studies. placed on strengthening research for improving the accuracy of short and medium-range weather forecasting, including local and particularly The Atmospheric Research and severe weather phenomena. On the other hand, Environment Programme the Programme fosters research efforts aimed at improving operational long-range weather- From the days of these earlier research efforts, forecasting systems, particularly for the monthly WMO’s research related activities have evolved and seasonal time frames. significantly. Today, the CAS activities are carried out through the Organization’s Atmospheric Of interest to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is the Tropical Meteorology Research Programme which deals with such important problems as

GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE WEATHER PREDICTION monsoons, tropical cyclones, droughts in the arid WATCH (GAW) RESEARCH PROGRAMME zones of the tropics, rain-producing tropical weather systems, and the interaction between tropical and mid-latitude weather systems. The Programme fosters improvement in the forecasting of these events which all have AREP economic benefit to tropical, sub-tropical and arid countries. Another significant component of AREP is its Weather Modification Research Programme. This programme encourages PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY TROPICAL METEOLOGY OF CLOUDS AND WEATHER scientific research in the physics and chemistry of RESEARCH PROGRAMME MODIFICATION RESEARCH PROGRAMME clouds and the application of this research to all fields where clouds have a major role, such as weather enhancement (rain-making) and hail Figure 3.1—WMO’s Atmospheric Research and suppression. It provides information on Environment Programme worldwide weather modification projects, and Chapter 3 — Understanding planet Eearth through geosciences and research

Figure 3. 2—Locations of active GAW ozone stations with an indication of the average ozone distribution: low in the equatorial belt, high in the middle (and northern polar latitudes)

guidance in the design and evaluation of tional cooperation in scientific research, as it experiments. It also studies the role of clouds in combined the networks of climatological and the transport, transformation and dispersion of hydrological stations operated by the Meteorology pollutants. and Environmental Protection Administration (MEPA) and the Ministry of Agriculture and Water To enable the Organization to give advice to (MAW) with sophisticated instrumentation and 67 several of its Members on weather modification, a measurement techniques on the University of WMO Precipitation Enhancement Project (PEP) Wyoming’s cloud physics aircraft. was adopted in 1975 to conduct an international experiment in weather modification. Field Much has been learned about the seeding measurements were made in 1979, 1980 and potential of clouds during SACPEX-90. More 1981 at sites in the northwestern part of Spain. measurements are needed, but if the observations The experience gained from this project has been continue to show favourable cloud types and of great value for subsequent scientific efforts in conditions, then it would appear that a long-term weather modification, and has formed the basis of project to develop and apply cloud seeding WMO’s position in this area of activity. technology to the region would be a wise water management decision. Future thrusts for SACPEX WMO has cooperated with the Kingdom of Saudi were also considered, in which radar, cloud Arabia in addressing the increasing water needs climatology, numerical modelling studies, cloud of industry, agriculture and population at large, microphysics and test seeding could be through a cloud physics study in 1990 called the incorporated into a new phase of SACPEX. Saudi Arabian Cloud Physics Experiment (SACPEX-90). Among other things, SACPEX-90 basically was to determine whether the clouds in WMO’s cooperation with other the southwestern part of Saudi Arabia could be research-related programmes and seeded or not, in order to obtain a more reliable source of water. activities

SACPEX was conducted through a combination of As we move towards the 21st century, we local technology and weather modification tech- recognize that the major environmental issue nology transferred to the region to enable rain attracting global attention concerns the projected augmentation and hail suppression. It was also changes in the Earth’s climate as a result of the intended to serve as a guide for cloud seeding warming of the planet’s surface (Obasi,1997). It projects. SACPEX was also an example of interna- should be noted that these concerns are based Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

upon the data collected by IMO and WMO going completed, GEWEX will make a major back into the last century. On the basis of such contribution to the overall efforts to improve our data, WMO issued the first authoritative understanding of the climate system and to statement on climate change in 1976. predict the variations and changes of its hydrological component. Among the main supporting programmes of WMO and its international partners for the global Research efforts will get a further boost from the research into climate change is the World Climate Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), Programme (WCP) including its research supported by WMO and other organizations, component, namely the World Climate Research which is designed to provide data for climate Programme (WCRP), as shown in Figure 1.16, in system monitoring, climate change detection, addition to the GAW. One of the major successful response monitoring and for research work in research efforts carried out by international improving climate models. GCOS is based on the scientists under the WCRP was the unique existing major observing programmes of WMO, Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) such as those within the WWW, the Hydrology project which ended in 1994. TOGA brought a and Water Resources Programme and GAW. tremendous breakthrough to climate forecasting Complementing Programmes are the Global through the understanding of the El Ocean Observing System (GOOS) and the Global Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon (Figure Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS), which are 3.3). This research work has produced direct other climate-related observing systems promoted socio-economic benefits to many nations around by our partners and co-sponsored by WMO. the world, such as the predictions, from several Figure 3.4 shows the inter-relation between these months to a year in advance, of patterns of systems and programmes. unusual rainfall or drought in parts of Asia, Australia, the Americas and Africa. All these programmes and activities support the efforts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 68 In this regard, of direct interest to the Change (IPCC) which was established jointly by hydrological and freshwater management WMO and the United Nations Environment community is the Global Energy and Water Cycle Programme (UNEP) in 1988. The IPCC was Experiment (GEWEX), a major sub-programme of charged with the responsibility of assessing the the WCRP. GEWEX undertakes studies on climate climate science, the environmental and socio- processes that control the energy balance of the economic impacts of climate change, and Earth, the global hydrological cycle and water appropriate response strategies. The IPCC has budget, and their adjustment to global changes, since issued two assessment reports, the first in such as the increase of atmospheric 1990 and the second in 1995. Over the years, concentrations of greenhouse gases. When Saudi Arabia has made a significant contribution

Diagram A Diagram B THE USUAL SITUATION EL NIÑO YEARS

Pacific Ocean Pacific Ocean EQ L H EQ H L

Pacific Pacific EQ Ocean EQ Ocean warm warm Figure 3.3—El Niño cooler cooler and the Southern Warmest water H/L = Higher/Lower atmospheric pressure Oscillation Chapter 3 — Understanding planet Eearth through geosciences and research

Figure 3.4— Components and WORLD CLIMATE coordinating/advisory PROGRAMME bodies of the World Climate Programme COORDINATING COMMITTEE FOR WORLD CLIMATE PROGRAMME

WORLD CLIMATE WORLD CLIMATE DATA WORLD CLIMATE WORLD CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH AND MONITORING APPLICATIONS AND ASSESSMENT AND RESPONSE PROGRAMME PROGRAMME SERVICES PROGRAMME STRATEGIES PROGRAMME WMO WMO with WMO with UNEP ICSU the participation the participation IOC of UNEP of UNESCO UNESCO FAO, IOC other agencies ICSU Joint Advisory Committee Scientific Scientific on Climate Advisory Committee Applications and Data Committee

Joint Scientific and Technical Committee for GCOS

Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) WMO, ICSU, UNEP, IOC GCOS is based on WWW and GAW of WMO, GOOS of IOC, GTOS of UNEP and other research and operational observing systems 69 to the work of the IPCC and the intensive and Conclusion extensive debates which surround its conclusions on climate change -- conclusions which have This brief account summarizes WMO’s been arrived at by some of the best researchers programmes and activities in support of global on the topic today, and have been reviewed by research efforts in meteorology, operational about three hundred scientists from all over the hydrology and related fields. Through the world. synergetic relationship between WMO, the National Meteorological and Hydrological One of the conclusions of the IPCC Second Services, and the research and academic Assessment Report (SAR) was that “Climate communities, WMO’s activities in these areas change will lead to an intensification of the global impact positively on the advancement of hydrological cycle...”. New research results knowledge in weather and climate processes reinforce the view that this conclusion would and the improvement of operational translate into prospects for more severe droughts meteorological activities. Direct socio- and/or floods in some places and less severe economic benefits derived for these common droughts and/or floods in others. At the same undertakings are clearly evident in today’s time, concerning arid lands, the research suggests society and will no doubt continue in the that deserts are likely to become subjected to future for the common good. These include, more extreme conditions, that is, hotter but not among other things, improvements in the wetter (IPCC, 1995). weather prediction capabilities of the nations of the world, improvements in mitigation The IPCC work is an example of the direct efforts against weather-related natural hazards impact of scientific research, as it forms the basis and disasters, and advances in the predictions for major international policy decisions (Obasi, of the future climates of the Earth. WMO 1996), as negotiated under the United Nations remains committed to supporting the research Framework Convention on Climate Change activities that advance the benefits to society (UNFCCC) and the United Nations Convention to and meet the major challenges of the next Combat Desertification (CCD). century. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

Synergy in science and society: partnership in the geosciences

Excerpt from keynote address at the First International Conference on the Effects of Global Business on Scientific Research (Geneva, Switzerland, 4 June 1999)

Introduction the World Meteorological Organization and the Third World Academy of Sciences as an At the outset, I would like to express my thanks important area of concern, namely, the for the invitation to address you at this First geosciences. The geosciences encompass the International Conference on the Effects of Global systematized knowledge of the solid Earth and Business on Scientific Research, in my capacity as the fluids within and around it. The geosciences Secretary-General of the World Meteorological deal with the Earth’s basic life support systems – Organization and Vice-President of the Third air, water, sea and land. It can be recalled that all World Academy of Sciences. I also take this life and economic activities on Earth are sustained opportunity to congratulate the “Sciences et by atmospheric, oceanic, hydrologic and Consciences de l’Hommes Fondation” for terrestrial systems. organizing this Conference in collaboration with the International Federation of Science Editors, There are worldwide concerns which the especially in bringing together participants from geosciences continue to address. Knowledge various disciplines and sectors. This is a very from the geosciences is being applied more laudable initiative on the part of the Foundation effectively to meet the need for more precise 70 which seeks to contribute to the synergy projections of climate change due to human between science and society. activities; to reduce human and socio-economic losses from natural disasters; to improve the The theme of the inter-relationship between management of vital freshwater resources; to science and society will recur in the course of determine the extent and rates of environmental this Conference, will also be the case with deterioration and ways of preventing or reducing another conference with which this event is such degradation; as well as to improve longer associated, namely, the World Conference on range weather and climate forecasts. Science for the Twenty-first Century: A New Commitment. The United Nations Educational, A new vision for international partnership and Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) cooperation, as well as a new form of social and the International Council for Science (ICSU) contract between science and society, will be are convening that conference at the end of this necessary for the geosciences to effectively month in Budapest, Hungary. The symbiotic address major socio-economic issues of today and relationship between science and society has the future. Among the more significant of these been demonstrated over a long period of time; it issues are as follows: continues to be demonstrated as we leave this millennium and enter the next. Society has been (a) There increasing economic losses (now assisted in its progress by the contribution of more than fifty billion US$ per year) and science and its applications; in turn, science human suffering (more than two billion needs to be further nurtured by society if it is to people affected since 1965) due to natural continue to play its crucial role in assisting disasters (mainly storms, floods and society and benefiting humankind. earthquakes). It is recognized that most of the loss of life and a significant percentage of economic losses could be averted Synergy in the geosciences through preparatory and preventive measures based on scientific assessments of I would like to draw attention to this close multiple risks. Warning and response relationship in a domain which is considered by systems also contribute to reduction of Chapter 3 — Understanding planet Eearth through geosciences and research

losses. Effective actions to respond to consolidated ocean-atmosphere observing environmental emergencies (e.g., oil spills, systems and their extension to other nuclear disasters) require close regions of the world; collaboration among those in the (e) Better weather forecasts, climate meteorological, hydrological and information and predictions (which are of oceanographic disciplines, particularly in great economic and social importance in determining pathways of contaminants agriculture, water management, aviation, threatening health and the environment; forest management, transport, tourism and (b) Fisheries resources, coral reefs and coastal other sectors) have been achieved with a zones are all seriously threatened by high level of international cooperation contaminants transported through the through WMO. Further improvements are atmosphere, and through rivers, and from increasingly dependent on closer activities within the oceans. In addition, collaboration between meteorology and ocean climate changes are closely oceanography. interlinked with atmospheric climate variations, and such changes have major In this connection, I am pleased to inform you effects on marine systems and on fish that the Thirteenth World Meteorological harvests. Coastal regions are generally Congress which was held here in Geneva last heavily populated and are zones of month took a number of decisions that will assist significant economic activities; in further addressing the above issues, (c) By 2025, a third of the world’s population particularly through enhanced partnership and will live in countries with inadequate cooperation. It was in the same spirit of supplies of fresh water. A number of partnership that the “Meeting of Eminent Persons developing countries have neither adequate on the Geosciences and the UN System” was measurements of their present water convened by WMO in December 1996. The resources nor projections of future supply Meeting considered that the issues involved are and demand. Such projections must take important and urgent. It recommended the 71 into account increasing per capita needs establishment of “a process, involving major and changing climatic conditions. Without stakeholders (including interested governments, adequate assessments, through application relevant intergovernmental agencies and non- of hydrological and meteorological governmental organizations), to determine how sciences, for which partnership and best to ensure increased joint programme cooperation are required, management of activities, consolidation of work in the limited and dwindling resources will be geosciences and related services”. As a result, ineffective and serious conflicts will arise; certain actions have been identified and have (d) In the past three decades, droughts claimed been or continue to be carried out. Such actions the lives of some 1.9 million people contribute to relieving much human suffering, through ensuing famine. Some countries, improving economic conditions, and promoting such as India and Brazil, have shown that health and well-being of people in all parts of the adequate drought warnings based on world. While greater integration of the oceanographic and meteorological geosciences and their related services is an conditions, and emerging understanding of important first step, it must be recognized that the ocean-atmosphere relationships, can further efforts are needed to ensure closer lead to productive agricultural seasons and involvement of social and biological sciences. minimize potential disasters. But these This is necessary to address more fully the major predictions, warnings and action plans socio-economic issues related to the global depend upon further development of environment. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

The development of geosciences in Africa

Keynote address at the Workshop on the Development of Science and Technology in Africa.(Durban, South Africa, 27 July 1998)

It is a great pleasure for me to be here in Durban quately developed to its full potential in Africa is to present a keynote address to the Workshop on the Earth system science or the geosciences the Development of Science and Technology in which includes the fields of meteorology, hydrol- Africa. I would like to express my appreciation to ogy, oceanography, glaciology and geology. Dr James P. Vary, Director of the International These sciences deal, among other things, with Institute of Theoretical and Applied Physics at the monitoring, understanding and prediction of Iowa State University for the invitation extended weather, climate and water distribution. All of to me on behalf of the Institute and the University the sciences need the basic prerequisite subjects of Natal. The Workshop is timely since it such as mathematics, physics and chemistry for addresses the development of science and their further development. technology in Africa at a time when there is increased focus on the socio-economic development of Africa. It is to be recalled that The question one might ask is: science and technology has played a major role in Why have the geosciences not the socio-economic development of industrialized nations and the rapid industrialization of Asian been fully developed in Africa? countries. Such experience shows the benefits At the time of independence of many of the that would accrue from science and technology African countries during the late fifties and early 72 in making more dynamic Africa’s development sixties, only a few of them had fully-fledged process. This aspect has also been stressed by universities or institutions of higher learning. Africa’s foremost political, socio-economic and Such institutions offered limited opportunities for scientific fora such as the Organisation of African advanced training in the basic sciences and far Unity, the Economic Commission for Africa, the less in the geosciences. Many of the higher-level Rand Forum of the Heads of State and scientific personnel in the institutions of higher Government on Science and Technology, and the learning, or those in government services, were African Academy of Sciences. from the metropolitan countries. Many Africans had to acquire their advanced education in the At the outset, it is appropriate to recall that basic sciences outside Africa, especially in the science and technology do not only contribute to early years of the post-independence period. satisfying human needs but are also the chief African policy makers therefore established a agents of economic and social change. This can number of universities as well a large number of be seen through the impacts on society of primary and high schools. A few of these advances in such diverse fields as university departments introduced training and telecommunications (Internet), energy, industry, research in fields such as meteorology, hydrology, medical science, agriculture, earth sciences and geology and marine sciences. the environment. In view of the symbiotic relationship between science and society, there is Unfortunately, the rapid expansion of education a need for society to continue to nurture science at primary, secondary and tertiary levels came and to provide the necessary support to enable about over a period when Africa had to face a science and technology to play their proper role number of setbacks. The setbacks were due to a in contributing to meeting the social and combination of factors such as: economic challenges faced by society. (i) The severe Sahelian droughts in the late A major challenge confronting Africa today is the sixties and early seventies, the droughts of need to ensure sustainable development. In this the early eighties which affected 32 of the regard, an area of science that exerts a highly sig- African countries, and those of the early nificant influence but which has not been ade- nineties in southern Africa; Chapter 3 — Understanding planet Eearth through geosciences and research

(ii) Recurrent floods in many parts of Africa; of education in the basic sciences. This (iii) Recurrent tropical cyclones in the south- situation has implications for the availability west Indian Ocean; of adequate well-trained graduates in basic (iv) The oil crises of 1973/1974 and 1979; sciences, which is a prerequisite for (v) The political instability and civil strife in professionals in the geoscientific fields. many parts of Africa; (vi) The decrease in agricultural production, The geosciences have a number of common the mainstay of Africa’s economy; and features. In this regard, an important aspect is the (vii) Unfavourable terms of trade and an monitoring of geophysical parameters which increasing debt burden. leads to the acquisition of quality data, their management, analysis and application in support All these factors have contributed to the of various social and economic sectors. In spite of degradation of the environment and led to these common characteristics, the components of increased poverty. Indeed, some 34 of the African the geosciences have largely developed in countries are currently among the 47 Least isolation. I will now briefly address each of the Developed Countries in the world. For these fields and their state of development in Africa. reasons, the African governments have not been in a position to adequately fund the various educational institutions at the level where science Meteorology and technology could have achieved the required development. In view of the early recognition of the importance of meteorology to, among other This was also the case for the basic prerequisite things, maritime and air transport, and for the subjects upon which the development of the safety of life and property, each government in geosciences are dependent. As education and Africa has established its own National training in science and technology was Meteorological Service. The World considered an important factor in addressing Meteorological Organization (WMO) ensures the 73 many of the setbacks, an increasing number of coordination of the activities of these Services at schools and universities were established to offer regional and international levels. It has thus been various courses in the basic sciences of possible to focus on the development of the mathematics, physics, chemistry and biological science of meteorology in Africa in support of a sciences. However, such proliferation led to number of socio-economic activities. lesser resources being available for fully equipping science laboratories and electronic In the area of human resources development, workshops, providing adequate library facilities eight WMO Regional Meteorological Training and subscription to scientific journals. Well- Centres have been established in all regions of qualified science teachers were not easily Africa. The Centres provide a number of courses available since: in meteorology, hydrology and related sciences. However, the range and level of specialized (a) The best brains in the African societies subjects offered remain somewhat limited. For were normally attracted to more lucrative advanced training and research work in sectors of the economy or to more meteorology, only a few university departments developed countries (brain-drain); such as those in Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal (b) The lower salaries offered were not and South Africa offer the necessary facilities. attractive enough for the highly qualified WMO provides a number of fellowships and scientific expatriates to fill the vacant posts; actively supports training events. WMO’s (c) Fewer students studied the sciences which Atmospheric Research and Environment were often perceived as being difficult Programme and the WMO-sponsored World subjects; and Climate Research Programme provide (d) Many students preferred to pursue the opportunities for scientists, including those from more remunerative or prestigious courses Africa, to participate in research activities in in agriculture, medicine, engineering or meteorology. However, the opportunity for the management. The lack of facilities and of attendance of scientific, conferences and well-qualified science teachers has also led symposia in meteorology and for interacting with in many cases to a lowering of the standard fellow research colleagues remains inadequate. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

As regards cooperative arrangements in World Hydrological Cycle Observing System addressing issues related to weather, climate and (WHYCOS). The System uses advances in water, a number of regional centres have been modern technology for the acquisition and established. These include the African Centre of transmission of hydrological data to central Meteorological Applications for Development processing centres. Currently, the System is (ACMAD) and the AGRHYMET Centre — both in composed of regional projects called Niamey, Niger — as well as Drought Monitoring Hydrological Cycle Observing System (HYCOS) Centres in Nairobi, Kenya and Harare, Zimbabwe. and two of them, namely, the Mediterranean- However, these Centres have not had the HYCOS and the SADCHYCOS are operational in necessary resources or the opportunity for Africa. Other similar projects are being adequate interaction with research institutions developed for other parts of Africa. The and universities from within and from outside successful implementation of the HYCOS Africa to fully meet their objectives. projects in Africa will aid research and development of the field of hydrology. As the development of the geosciences is dependent on data acquisition from the Some of the WMO Regional Training Centres monitoring of the global climate system, Africa provide training in operational hydrology, and a has lagged behind the rest of the world in the few universities offer courses in hydrology, very field of meteorology. Only 45 per cent of the often within the faculties of engineering and planned surface meteorological observations and environment sciences. WMO also offers 31 per cent of the agreed upper air observations fellowships in the field of hydrology, but the are presently available for exchange and opportunities for hydrologists to interact and applications in Africa. Many of the Services are promote their science are inadequate. Such unable to benefit fully from advances in science interaction has mainly been through the and technology, especially those associated with International Association of Hydrological automation, computer facilities and satellite-based Sciences, WMO’s Commission for Hydrology, 74 remote-sensing and telecommunications and the United Nations Educational, Scientific capabilities, as well as to fully utilize the available and Cultural Organization’s (UNESCO’s) global information. International Hydrological Programme. WMO also collaborates closely with regional water bodies such as the Niger River Basin Authority, Hydrology with other international organizations, and in particular with UNESCO which also has the In the context of its mandate, the WMO has also responsibility for the development of actively pursued the development of hydrological science. operational hydrology as one of its major objectives. In this regard, WMO supports the development of Hydrological Services in Africa. Oceanography However, recent surveys indicate that the network of hydrological observing stations has Oceanography has lagged behind the fields of deteriorated considerably. In addition, the meteorology and hydrology in Africa. Very few analysis of available hydrological data is giving institutions of higher learning offer fully fledged alarming signals regarding freshwater availability courses in oceanography. Many universities do in the Sahel and other parts of Africa having have programmes in marine sciences, but these similar climate conditions. It is estimated that at are devoted mainly to fisheries and other the end of the century, freshwater availability biological aspects of the oceans. Of the per inhabitant in Africa will be 5 100 m3, that is 38 countries with important coastal zones, some about 25 per cent of that in 1950. This situation have institutions specifically devoted to presents a great challenge in spite of the fact oceanographic research. As many of such that Africa has 50 or more major water basins institutions are funded by governments, spanning nearly all countries, large inland water developmental research work is often hampered bodies such as Lake Victoria, Chad and Kariba, by inadequate resources. Some of them also and water stored in aquifers. In view of the collaborate closely with naval units in their inadequacy of hydrological stations in Africa, countries, mainly for the purpose of making WMO has recently developed components of research ships regularly available. Chapter 3 — Understanding planet Eearth through geosciences and research

Within the UN system, the Intergovernmental Geological sciences Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO is a focal point for the development of The development of geological sciences is mainly oceanography. In close collaboration with IOC, pursued in countries having an interest in mining WMO implements a programme in marine and oil exploration, or in those that are meteorology and associated oceanographic vulnerable to earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. activities. Through such programmes, African A few universities and some government scientists are sent abroad for higher education in institutions in Africa are involved in geological oceanographic fields. sciences and provide facilities for training and research in these fields. These universities and As the oceans exert considerable influence on institutions generally collaborate very closely weather and climate, WMO actively promotes with the private sector involved in the fields of research in oceanography. In addition, the recent mining and engineering. In the context of the El Niño phenomenon further demonstrated the United Nations system, UNESCO has a impact of oceans on weather around the globe programme in seismology which supports and in particular over Africa where severe floods scientific capacity development in this field, were observed over parts of eastern Africa as well while WMO’s Global Telecommunications System as droughts in certain regions of Southern Africa. is used for the exchange of seismic information The impact of the Atlantic and Indian oceans on from the worldwide network of seismological the weather in Africa is not well understood. stations. The International Seismological Centre However, the knowledge of the oceans and their in the United Kingdom serves as a focal point for interaction with the atmosphere offer an the collection and archiving of seismological data. opportunity for weather prediction over a season In addition, at the global level, the non- or two ahead. This development will be of governmental International Union of Geodesy and immense benefit to Africa, as well as for longer Geophysics, with which WMO has a working term climate prediction. arrangement, coordinates the development of geophysical sciences. However, no 75 intergovernmental mechanism exists in Africa for Glaciology the coordination of geological sciences as is the case with meteorology and hydrology. In Africa, glaciology is not very well developed because very few countries have glaciers within their national borders. Only South Africa has a Areas of concern where the station in Antarctica. Mount Kilimanjaro in further development of the Tanzania and Mt. Kenya are perhaps the only mountains in Africa that have permanent ice geosciences could make a covers. Except for university research scientists difference who have an interest in the study of the evolution of the earth’s climate and its variations, not much If the geosciences were further developed, some work has been done in the field of glaciology in of the current major concerns of Africa could be Africa. In addition, the subject is not widely better addressed. These concerns include issues known to African students and job opportunities related to climate, natural disasters, water for those specializing in the field are very limited resources and other environmental problems. It in Africa. should be realized that climate variations and change are dictated by the components of the At the global level, however, the cryosphere global climate system whose study falls within the exerts considerable influence on earth climate fields of geosciences. and indeed WMO, the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU), the United Nations In this regard, it is to be emphasized that Africa is Environment Programme (UNEP) and the IOC are particularly sensitive to climate variations which jointly sponsoring the activities of the Global often give rise to natural disasters such as floods Climate Observing System. Through the System, a and droughts. In this connection, we recall the network of observing stations are being severe droughts in the Sahel and the recurrent developed to ensure the availability of a reliable droughts and floods in many parts of Africa in set of cryospheric data for research. the present decade. It is estimated that Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

135 million people are affected annually by strategy for science and technology should natural disasters, and economic losses have therefore ensure the following: increased to US$ 180 billion by 1995 worldwide. A flood event in Egypt in 1994 is estimated to (a) A high standard of education in have caused damage worth US$ 1 billion. In mathematics and basic sciences such as 1994, Mozambique was struck by tropical physics and chemistry should be cyclone Nadya, which resulted in 240 people deliberately promoted. Associated killed, over two million people affected and laboratories and workshops both in high damage to property worth tens of millions of US schools, technical colleges and universities dollars. The 1997–1998 El Niño-related floods in should be properly equipped. Teachers and Kenya, northern Tanzania and Somalia, and instructors should also be well trained and droughts in South Africa, have also resulted in well remunerated. This is vital to the considerable economic losses. development of quality science and technology in support of geosciences and Africa is also vulnerable to the projected climate of sustainable development in Africa; change, especially to sea-level rise. The (b) Policy makers should not only recognize implications of this to tourism and other the contribution of the geosciences to economic activities in the coastal zones are sustainable development but should also enormous. Furthermore, extreme hydrological provide the necessary institutional and events will have implications for agriculture, budgetary support to the relevant energy, ecosystems and health. national institutions to enable them to acquire modern equipment and It is further estimated that, in the coming adequate facilities and participate fully in decades, several tens of billions of US dollars will regional and international research- be spent worldwide on water resources oriented activities; management for domestic use, agriculture and (c) The cooperation between national 76 industry. Better management of fresh water, institutions dealing with the components of especially in Africa where available fresh water the geosciences sectorally should be per inhabitant is expected to reduce considerably strengthened in order to contribute to an over the next decades, will be a key factor to the integrated global environmental monitoring improvement of health and sustainable and service system. Where necessary, the development. relevant components of the geosciences should be developed around existing institutions. Such cooperation would lead Given the current situation, what to support for socio-economic activities is the future strategy for the through, among other things, the provision of advance warnings on occurrence of development of geosciences in natural disasters, improved predictions Africa? such as those for the El Niño phenomenon, and climate change. Africa could thereby The framework for a strategy for the contribute more effectively to the regional development of the geosciences in Africa should climate change assessments of the include strengthening the scientific base and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate building up the scientific capacity in each of the Change and to the implementation of components, as well as envisaging gradual international instruments such as the UN integration. The strategy should take into account Framework Convention on Climate Change existing regional plans for the development of and the Convention to Combat science and technology in Africa as well as Desertification; regional and global plans for the development of (d) The principle of free and unrestricted the components of geosciences. In the case of exchange of basic data and products must meteorology and hydrology, the WMO Long-term be maintained so that scientific and Plan provides an appropriate framework which academic institutions in Africa as well as incorporates the priorities defined by the African worldwide are able to undertake research countries. The strategy for the development of and training activities using all available geosciences within the overall development data. Chapter 3 — Understanding planet Eearth through geosciences and research

(e) The existing institutions involved in be used as a forum for the dissemination of training and research in the geosciences scientific research results in Africa; should be appropriately reinforced and (i) The exchange of research scientists from other institutions encouraged to gradually African institutions and those from introduce the relevant courses, especially in advanced centres and laboratories outside oceanography, hydrology and seismology; Africa should be actively pursued; (f) The existing regional African institutions (j) The concept of twinning African dealing with components of geosciences institutions with similar ones from outside such as ACMAD should be further Africa should be developed and promoted. reinforced and financial resources made available to enable them to cooperate more fully with similar operational and research From the brief presentation that has been made, institutions within and outside Africa; it is clear that much remains to be done in the (g) Appropriate mechanisms should be put in development of the fields of geosciences, if Africa place that would encourage African is to benefit from the full potential contributions scientists to meet more regularly and have of the sciences in its quest for sustainable social an opportunity to publish their research and economic development. I hope therefore papers. Institutions in developed countries that, in formulating a programme for the should expand their cooperation with development of science and technology in Africa, corresponding institutions in Africa priority would be given to the development of especially in the science and technology education in the basic sciences and to the programmes, including the various geosciences. The action plan to be developed for component areas of the geosciences. The the implementation of the programme should developed country institutions should also ensure intra-African partnership as well as increase the proportion of their fund partnership with relevant institutions worldwide. devoted to research and development to I am sure that this Workshop will serve as a problems of interest to countries in Africa; landmark in the development of science and 77 (h) The African Academy of Sciences should technology and in particular of the geosciences, continue to be supported by scientific for the prosperity of Africa. It is a challenge for institutions in Africa. Its journal could also the scientific community for the next millennium.

Address at the opening of the WMO Global Atmosphere Watch station

(Arembepe, Bahia, Brazil, 17 September 1997)

On behalf of the World Meteorological type of monitoring was also recommended by the Organization (WMO) and on my own, I wish to Special Session of the UN General Assembly which express my appreciation to the Government of convened in June 1997 to review and appraise the Brazil for its long-standing commitment to the implementation of UNCED’s Agenda 21. protection of the environment. This commitment was demonstrated in an outstanding manner when I also wish to take this opportunity to thank Mr Brazil hosted the landmark United Nations Athayde for his kind invitation to me to be part of Conference on Environment and Development this auspicious ceremony. Our gratitude is also (UNCED) in Rio in 1992. It has also been demon- extended to the Global Environmental Facility strated, among other ways, by the establishment (GEF) and the United Nations Development and operation in Brazil of some of the earliest Programme (UNDP) for the funding of this impor- Background Air Pollution Network (BAPMoN) tant GAW station, in addition to the other five stations, which date back to the 1970’s, and by the global stations strategically located in Algeria, inauguration of this GAW station here today. This Argentina, China, Indonesia and Kenya. My thanks Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

also go the Universidade Federal da Bahia which, I When fully implemented, the GAW network will understand, will work together with the Instituto include up to 30 global and 300 regional stations. Nacional de Meteorología of Brazil to help operate Global stations are located in unpolluted remote the station. In the first instance, I would like to say areas and measure a large number of parameters, a few words concerning the reasons for establish- including tropospheric ozone, precipitation ing stations such as this. Over the years, chemistry, solar radiation, methane, carbon diox- monitoring has revealed that increasing amounts ide, particulate matter, radionucleides and ultravi- of pollutants are changing the atmosphere’s olet radiation. The station we are inaugurating composition and radiative balance. For example, today is a valuable addition to the network of the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide global GAW stations since it is located in a large since the industrial revolution has risen by about tropical area that is believed to contain major 29 per cent to 362 parts per million by volume global sources and sinks of many aerosols and (ppmv) in 1996. The concentration of other green- greenhouse gases. It is therefore expected to pro- house gases such as methane and nitrous oxide vide measurements that should enable the first has also been increasing steadily over the past long-term accounting of greenhouse gases and decades. It is the availability of such data from aerosols within an important tropical source and monitoring stations similar to the one being inau- sink region. In a regional context, the measure- gurated here today that enabled the ments from this station, together with the region- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to al monitoring stations already established in make projections of future emissions of green- Brazil and in other WMO Member countries in house gases and to conclude in its Second South America, should also help to understand Assessment Report in December 1995, that “...the the complex atmospheric chemical reactions that balance of evidence suggests that there is now a determine the depletion, transformation, life- discernible human influence on the global times, and transport of greenhouse gases and climate”. Furthermore, pollutants such as aerosols, aerosols within and outside the South American tropospheric ozone (i.e. ozone near the ground) maritime tropics. 78 and high levels of acidity in precipitation are affecting the health of human beings and animals; From the national point of view, the measure- adversely affecting the ocean and freshwater ments made at the station, which is away from resources; damaging vegetation, forests and soils; the vicinity of human-made pollution sources, and contributing to the alteration of the ecosystem will form a bench-mark and further contribute to and the overall capacity of planet Earth to sustain the detection and interpretation of future life. changes in the chemical composition of the country’s atmosphere. They will also help in It is such concerns that has led the World determining whether such changes are due to Meteorological Organization since the 1950’s, as emissions from natural ecosystems such as part of its mandate, through its Global Atmosphere forests and wetlands; land-use practices, particu- Watch, to strengthen its role in the promotion and larly biomass burning; and industrialization or coordination of atmospheric monitoring and urbanization. Furthermore, the observations from research activities in a systematic manner. In this the station will help in determining whether the regard, GAW provides a framework for the design, observed variability in climate, such as that seen standardization and inter-calibration of data- collec- in northeast Brazil and other areas of South tion systems, as well as a framework to America, results from or is connected to chemi- scientifically evaluate the measurement of atmos- cal composition changes in the atmosphere. The pheric pollution. GAW therefore serves as an early establishment of the GAW station is therefore a warning system to detect further changes in the tangible contribution of the Government of atmospheric concentration of pollutants, and Brazil, through its Instituto Nacional de contributes to the improvement of our under- Meteorología (INMET), to the implementation of standing and prediction of atmospheric behaviour its national strategy as well as to the United and the latter’s interaction with the oceans and the Nations Framework Convention on Climate biosphere. In order to achieve the objectives of Change (UN/FCCC). GAW, WMO promotes the participation of its 185 Member countries and facilitates the contributions In conclusion, let me congratulate you all on the from scientists of both developed and developing opening of the WMO Global Atmosphere Watch countries. Station here at Arembepe in the State of Bahia. Chapter 3 — Understanding planet Eearth through geosciences and research

Advances in meteorology—contribution to modern society

Lecture presented at the Law Faculty of the University of Ljubljana(Ljubljana, Slovenia, 10 October 2002)

Introduction layer, the increase of pollutants in the atmosphere and their transboundary transport. Developments in the various science and technology fields have transformed society’s ways I would also like to draw special attention to the of life on planet Earth — from the food we eat, close relationship between society and the houses we live in, the clothes we wear, to our geosciences, which is an important area of modes of communication and transportation. For concern to humanity. The geosciences example, biological sciences have given rise to encompass the systematized knowledge of the opportunities in biotechnology applications. solid Earth and the fluids within and around it. Physics and mathematics have brought a Geosciences deal with the Earth’s basic life revolution in a number of areas including support systems – air, water, sea and land. It is telecommunications, computer capabilities and recalled that all life and economic activities on other areas related to science and technology. Earth are sustained by atmospheric, oceanic, Advances in meteorology have benefited from hydrologic and terrestrial systems. Knowledge these developments. In addition, further from the geosciences is being applied, among advances in our knowledge of the natural world other things, to improve the accuracy and range have been made through multidisciplinary of weather and climate forecasts; to mitigate 79 research in the basic sciences such as physics, natural disasters; to improve the management of biology, chemistry and mathematics, and in vital freshwater resources; to support various applied fields such as meteorology and socio-economic sectors; to determine the extent hydrology. and rates of environmental deterioration and identify ways of preventing or reducing such However, some of these scientific developments degradation; and to assess climate change and its have had certain negative impacts on society. impact on human activities. These include the degradation of the environment, mainly through human activities To put these developments in their proper which have led to the pollution of air, water, land perspective, it would be useful to provide a brief and the biosphere. Some of these developments historical overview of meteorology since its early have also raised serious ethical questions such as days. genetic applications like cloning and genetically modified organisms used in food production. Taking stock of the current state of scientific Brief history achievements and their adverse impacts is crucial if humankind is to address effectively the future Humans have always been dependent upon challenges of scientific development, including their natural environment, particularly on problems of an ethical nature. There is therefore weather and climate. Records of the earliest a need to ensure that scientific developments civilizations such as those of Mesopotamia, respond effectively to human expectations and China, India and Egypt make references to meet the challenges of sustainable development. weather and climate. However, the first In this context, advances in the science of systematic study of meteorology was meteorology have made significant contributions undertaken by Aristotle in his treatise to human welfare such as alerting the world “Meteorologica” in the fourth century B.C. community to the increase in greenhouse gases in Substantial progress only came during the 17th the atmosphere with potential impact on climate century following the development of change, the depletion of the protective ozone instruments such as the now familiar Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

thermometer and barometer for observing the weather. As a result, the first International and/or measuring the various meteorological Conference on Meteorology was organized in elements, and after the formulation of the basic Brussels in 1853 and the non-governmental laws and principles relevant to the behaviour of International Meteorological Organization (IMO) the atmosphere. Without these developments in was established in Vienna in 1873. The IMO was instrumentation and also the determination of the predecessor of the intergovernmental World certain physical laws by scientists in the 17th Meteorological Organization which was and 18th centuries, there would have been little established in 1950 and became a specialized further progress in understanding agency of the United Nations in 1951. Hence, meteorological phenomena. Such scientists socio-economic needs dictated the development include Robert Boyle, who enunciated his of meteorology, which in turn, brought its own famous law in 1659 on the relation of volume to intrinsic rewards to society (see also Chapter 1). pressure, the first step in the dynamics of the atmosphere; Halley, in 1735, who gave an This is equally true in our modern time. The explanation of the relationship between the developments which helped to advance the trade winds and the rotation of the Earth; science and practice of meteorology, such as Franklin, in 1752, who worked on atmospheric weather radar, computers and satellites, became electricity; Lavoisier, in 1783, and Dalton, in available because of society’s felt need for them. 1800, who laid the physical base of meteorology In turn, society has benefited much from the as a science with their findings concerning the advancement of meteorology and the utilisation nature, condition and composition of air (WMO, of these developments in meteorological 1990). applications. The Organization I represent, the World Meteorological Organization, with its 185 As time went on, more and more scholars an took Members, is committed to the promotion of an interest in the science of meteorology, with scientific progress in meteorology and related the atmosphere serving as their laboratory. There disciplines, and their applications, for the welfare 80 came the realization that to gain a better of humanity. understanding of weather and climate, data were required from various places at pre-arranged times. This need became more evident in 1820 Recent scientific developments when H.W. Brandes made the first systematic in meteorology attempt at preparing a weather map. His subsequent work led to some knowledge about In the context of this presentation, I will confine the movement of storms, and helped to bring myself to certain key developments in home the fact that weather systems do not meteorology. recognize political boundaries. It thus became clear that active and purposeful cooperation by many countries would be required if there were Weather prediction to be progress in meteorology and in weather forecasting. The invention by Samuel Morse of The term “meteorology” is usually associated the electric telegraph in 1843 revolutionized the with weather forecasting. It is therefore fitting possibilities for weather forecasts, particularly that we first explore the scientific and technical storm warnings. advances which have led to progress in weather prediction, in various space and time scales. The development of meteorology demonstrates cooperative interaction between science, Weather forecasting involves the well-known technology and society. In the 19th century, for laws of fluid dynamics, thermodynamics and instance, there was a rapid and widespread radiative transfer. The equations of motion along development of science and technology in with thermodynamics and conservation laws are Western Europe, partly a cause and partly an the basic tools of forecasting. They serve to effect of the industrial revolution. The resulting define models of atmospheric processes. economic development saw an expansion of Dynamical, thermal and radiative processes, in international trade which, in turn, required safe combination, determine the motion and and efficient transportation by sea. That called for temperature of the atmosphere, and the precise, reliable and regular information about manifestations known as “weather”. The Chapter 3 — Understanding planet Eearth through geosciences and research

Figure 3.5—ECMWF Skill Score MA - 12 Month Moving Average Forecast Verification 00 12UTC 90

(Source: ECMWF) 80

T + 24 MA T + 48 MA 20 T + 72 MA T + 96 MA T + 120 MA T + 144 MA 10 T + 168 MA T + 192 MA

0 19801981 1982 1983 1984 19851986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 atmospheric phenomena range from planetary (a) Improvements in observational data wave lengths down to the scale of an individual coverage; convective cloud and to the minute scale of water (b) Technological advances; condensation process, involving microscopic (c) Progress in data assimilation techniques; condensation nuclei and phenomena akin to and chemical catalysis. For this reason, meteorological (d) The successful formulation of the phenomena are far more complicated and dynamical and physical processes in the “unpredictable” in their fine details than any man- atmosphere through numerical weather made random number generator. Yet the prediction. meteorologists have made significant conceptual advances in delineating those aspects of the Let us proceed to elaborate on these four areas of 81 atmospheric circulation and weather which are development. indeed predictable for a finite time period. And they are striving to improve their routine forecasts and push towards the “limit of Improvements in observational deterministic predictability”. data coverage Over the last thirty years or so, the annual mean Like all geophysical sciences, meteorology is of the useful period of forecasts has been basically an observational science. There is extended from about three to about eight days for therefore a need for frequent and accurate synoptic weather situations in the extra-tropical measurements of various elements over the latitudes of the northern hemisphere. Figure 3.5 Earth’s surface as well as above it, and for the shows the improvement in forecast skill score of rapid transmission of such data to meteorological 500 hPa geopotential for the northern centres world-wide for further processing and hemisphere over the period 1980 to 2001. The use. The progress achieved in observational data skill in three-day forecast in 1980 is shown in the has been largely brought about by new and six-day forecast in 2001. The level of skill of improved platforms. The backbone of WMO’s present seven-day forecast is about the same as observational system is the Global Observation those for one-day forecasts in the mid-1950’s. System (GOS) of its World Weather Watch Certainly, such improvements in weather (WWW). It comprises the surface- and space- forecasts have many useful applications to human based systems (Obasi, 2002a). activities such as agriculture, transport and industry, in addition to the better protection of (Information on WMO’s major global observing life and property. systems, WWW, GCOS, GAW, and WHYCOS can be found in other chapters such as 1, 2, 4, and 7). One might ask, how were these improved predictions accomplished? The achievements are the results of many factors and reflect primarily: Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

Technological advances enhance radar and profiler wind data in the Meteorological instruments future, when produced in conjunction with other sounding techniques that provide temperature Apart from advances in observational sensors profiles, such as radio-acoustic sounding systems. such as those used in radiosondes and in The availability of these forms of technology, as Automatic Weather Stations, meteorological part of a composite observing system, will instruments have largely benefited from modern contribute in large part to satisfying the technology and advances in understanding the requirements of mesoscale and local area forecast physics of the atmosphere. A number of models. sophisticated instruments have been developed. Good examples include Doppler radars and wind- Information and communication technology profilers. These instruments detect the location (ICT) and velocity of hydrometeors or air turbulence by reflecting radio electrical waves, based on The large quantities of observational data will not advanced electronics and complex signal be of much practical use in forecasting if they processing. They have shown the ability to cannot be transmitted and processed in time. It is provide quality wind data of high resolution in primarily for this reason that technological both space and time, especially in the lower advances in high-speed telecommunications and troposphere. The new wind-profiler technology, computer capacity have played important roles in which some ten years ago was hardly affordable, improving the range and accuracy of forecasts. It is now implemented by many nations as an may also be noted that the trend is towards faster operational programme that contributes to the data transmission rates. For instance, at the start composite network (Figure 3.6). A time-series of the implementation of the Global observation from a wind profiler is given in Telecommunications System (GTS) of the World Figure 3.7. There is the potential to further Weather Watch of WMO in the late 1960’s, 82

Figure 3.6—Wind profiler network Chapter 3 — Understanding planet Eearth through geosciences and research

Figure 3.7— Observation from a wind profiler network

transmission speeds were in the order of 50 bits Computer technology per second. Today, the GTS has to keep pace with rapidly growing requirements for faster Early computers were scalar processors, then access to even larger volumes of data and came along vector processors and now we have products required for an increasing diversity of the massively parallel processors (MPP). This is meteorological services (WMO, 2001). The speed reflected in Figure 3.8 which shows the increase of some of the main trunk circuits is 128 megabits in processor power expressed in MIPS (million of per second (Mbs-1). instructions per second) over the last 30 years. Such developments in computer hardware The recent and rapid emergence of the Internet technology, combined with advances in poses challenges as regards its role in relation to numerical methods and an increased the GTS. The Internet has grown rapidly in understanding of atmospheric and oceanic capacity, penetration and diversity of processes over this period, have led to steady applications. Its bandwidth greatly exceeds that improvements in the timeliness and accuracy of of the GTS and it could potentially meet most of weather forecasts as well as in increased communications requirements of National capability to predict the global climate. Meteorological Services (NMSs). The weakness of the Internet remains, however, that its performance from day to day, even hour to hour Data assimilation is unpredictable, due to its variable and rapidly growing traffic load. The GTS with its limited but We mentioned the diverse types of data coming assured and secure capacity continues to be from all areas of the world at various times required for essential exchange between the through the WMO Global Telecommunications NMSs. System. In an ideal physical situation, it may be Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

1.E+08 10000 Figure 3.8—Moore’s law illustrated Intel architecture

1.E+07 500 ) (Source: Intel) MIPS ( 1.E+06 25 ower ower p

g 1.E+05 1.0

number of transistors number 1.E+04 0.1 Processin

1.E+03 0.01 1970 1980 1990 2000

expected that observations would specify In this manner, data assimilation produces a unambiguously one value for each and every state convenient, comprehensive, high-resolution parameter at the selected initial time t = 0. This representation of the atmosphere. Therefore, ideal case does not materialize in actual advances in data assimilation, compared with meteorological forecasting for a number of observational and other technological advances, reasons, among them are: have provided a basis for a significant improvement in weather forecasting. (a) Conventional pressure, temperature and Furthermore, as a by-product of the data wind observations which are taken at the assimilation process, information on availability, 84 so-called synoptic times (0000 GMT and timeliness and quality of various observations is 1200 GMT) are inadequately distributed now being generated at major forecasting around the planet and leave severe centres. Based on this information, the accuracy geographical gaps where no data are of quality-control decisions on observations is available; being improved, which in turn is benefiting (b) conventional observations are point numerical weather prediction. measurements which do not provide a correct sampling of the highly variable meteorological fields; and Numerical weather prediction (c) observations such as those from aircraft and Sun synchronous satellites are mostly Numerical weather prediction (NWP) of asynoptic. atmospheric phenomena may be categorized in terms of various time periods of forecasts. Short- Hence, it can be said that single-time data sets range forecasting is in the range of up to three available to the forecasters for updating their days, medium-range forecasting goes up to ten computations are likely to remain incomplete and days and long-range forecasting extends beyond inaccurate. Any forecasting scheme must ten days. The computer models involved may therefore be initiated or initialized at time t = 0 cover a limited area such as those for predicting by merging the new observations with the mesoscale weather phenomena. There are also currently estimated meteorological fields global models such as those used for medium- computed on the basis of earlier observations. range and long-range forecasting. Numerical This process of merging new observational data models of the atmosphere consist of several with the ongoing computation of a numerical components (Figure 3.9) which must all interact forecasting model is known as “data assimilation” with one another in order to produce an or equivalently “four-dimensional data objective forecast. Whatever their scope is in assimilation” in consideration of the time and space and time, models use essentially the same space distribution of the database. Hence, the fundamental laws which govern fluid dynamics. forecasts are made using a more accurate and The problem of weather forecasting could be comprehensive data set. mathematically stated as an initial value problem Chapter 3 — Understanding planet Eearth through geosciences and research

Development of NWP models

With the current increase in computer power and speed, global models can now run at relatively high resolution, and Ensemble Prediction Systems have seen their resolution increase to enable delivery of more useful products at all forecast ranges (ECMWF, 2000). These enhanced computer resources have also allowed the implementation of partial or complete 3D-VAR and 4D-VAR data assimilation systems. Considering the verification Figure 3.9—Numerical model components scores of global models, we note that the forecast skill for the southern hemisphere has become using the Newtonian dynamical equations for an comparable to that of the northern hemisphere. In ideal compressible gas (Navier-Stokes equations), addition, the five-day forecast skill in the northern the equation for the continuity of mass, the hemisphere in 1980 was about the same as that of equation of state or the ideal gas law, and the first the seven-day forecast in 2001 (Figure 3.10). The law of thermodynamics. The models utilize these improvement has been due to improvement in six equations to forecast the future values of six NWP such as higher resolution, improved vertical variables (the wind field in three dimensions, the resolution, new data assimilation techniques and temperature, pressure and density of the better physical parameterisation. The introduction atmosphere) from the current values of these of direct assimilation of satellite radiances and the variables. In view of the non-linear nature of improvement in analysis of humidity have been these equations, it is not possible to solve them noteworthy. In addition, improvement in boundary by precise analytical methods but resort must be layer physics, better representation of convection, made rather to numerical methods. Further, the especially over the tropical areas, have permitted non-linearity of the equations causes small useful short-range prediction over the tropical 85 differences in the initial data to yield huge areas. Indirectly, the improvements have differences in the results. This sensitive contributed also to improved predictability in the dependence on initial conditions is the hallmark medium-range and some predictability in the long- of a chaotic system. The data assimilation also range. addresses this problem. In effect, it can be said, as did Vilhelm Bjerknes, the renowned Norwegian In the short- and very-short-range, the studies meteorologist, that the central problem of the carried out under the Mesoscale Alpine science of meteorology is the prediction of future Programme of the WMO World Weather Research weather. Programme will permit a better representation of

Figure 3.10—Evolution of forecast skill for northern and southern hemispheres. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

Ensemble Prediction Systems and forecast of severe weather Operational Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) configurations consist of a control plus the number of perturbed forecasts (e.g. 50 members) run twice per day (00 and/or 12 GMT). The control and perturbations are run with the higher resolution model through the short and medium range and then extended to the longer range at lower resolution. Perturbations to initial conditions are derived using the breeding of growing modes (BGM) or breeding vectors or are based on perturbed observations and models. Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) enable estimates in the forecast confidence of specific weather threats, first, in the context of the larger- scale circulation pattern and associated weather at medium range and, then, in the details of the weather system and weather in the short range. Figure 3.11—Swiss alpine model — precipitation forecast Most major centres have, as part of their recent objectives, a focus on NWP research and orographic phenomena. In recent years, a new development for operational provision of good generation of very-high-resolution non-hydrostatic forecasts of severe weather at day 4 or 5. Such NWP models has emerged. These models can be research and development by major centres used for a very large range of scales from a few notably the European Centre for Medium-Range 86 hundreds of meters to a few thousands of km. In Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and others, when the Alpine region, at least five limited area NWP implemented operationally, will enhance the models operationally provide short-range capability of NMHSs to issue severe weather forecasts with a spatial resolution approaching 10 predictions for the protection of life and property. km (Figures 3.11, 3.12). These models have Since severe weather may occur as a result of a demonstrated their capability to reasonably phenomenon such as a heat wave covering a model and predict the meso-alpha (fronts, domain many times larger than the truncation tropical cyclones etc.) and meso-beta (squall scale of a NWP model, there is no reason why the lines, cloud clusters etc.) scale features of the model should not be able to simulate such events. Alpine/Mediterranean Sea meteorology. Upscaling the event definition or downscaling the model data and coupling the NWP model with To further increase the accuracy of forecasts of suitable hydrological models, the NWP model potentially dangerous local meteorological should be able to drive the application models to events, experimental results indicate that a much simulate flooding occurring from widespread rain higher resolution than the current 10-km range is over drainage basins. An example of the EPS of actually needed. The optimal use of these rainfall integrated over the Po River Basin during regional models strongly depends on the the period of the severe flooding is presented in availability and utilization of observations by the Figure 3.12 (Hollingworth and Viterbo, 2001). models of high-resolution that will allow performing data assimilation and model validation Recent studies on events causing great damage at a scale consistent with the model resolution. (December 1999) in Europe indicate that high The availability of Doppler radar measurements resolution global models are capable of and the assimilation of such data in these NWP simulating the broad synoptic scale surface models will improve the usefulness of their pressure fields related to such events in the products. Without such data, dynamical medium range. Whether or not a global model adaptation to higher resolution terrain features and an EPS give quantitative medium-range alone results mostly in the redistribution to forecast of severe weather depends very much on smaller scales of field properties predicted at the phenomenon to be forecast. There are certain synoptic scale. large-scale severe weather events, which can be Chapter 3 — Understanding planet Eearth through geosciences and research

a) Forecast from 20001009 b) Forecast from 20001009 Po River basin Po River basin 200 200 perturbed (nb)t255 perturbed (nb)t255 control (nb)t255 control (nb)t255 t511 t511 24h FC 511 24h FC 511 150 150

100 100 Accumulated precipitation (mm) Accumulated Accumulated precipitation (mm) Accumulated 50 50

0 0 02468100246810 Forecast range (days) Forecast range (days) c) Forecast from 20001011 d) Forecast from 20001013 Po River basin Po River basin 200 200 perturbed (nb)t255 perturbed t255 control (nb)t255 controlt255 t511 t511 24h FC 511 24h FC 511 150 150

100 100 Accumulated precipitation (mm) Accumulated Accumulated precipitation (mm) Accumulated 50 50 87

0 0 02468100246810 Forecast range (days) Forecast range (days)

Figure 3.12—Averaged precipitation over the Po River Basin as a function of forecast time (in days). Blue, black and red curves represent the deterministic forecast at T511, the control forecast at T255 and the 50 perturbed forecasts at T255, respectively; all values curves are accumulated since the beginning of the forecast. Black boxes represent the mean and interquartile values for the ensemble results. The green curve represents the time accumulated succession of 24-hour forecasts for the T511 system and is taken as proxy for truth. forecast quantitatively by a global forecast system. seasonal to interannual prediction” (DEMETER) However, we cannot expect a NWP model to be on the development and application of a able to simulate well scales close to the European multimodel ensemble system for truncation scale. This was shown by several seasonal climate prediction. A major part of the studies on flow over orography. Short-range project is the assembling of retrospective forecast regional model output of EPS is currently being datasets extending over 20-30 years, based on 9- used on a quasi-operational basis, and medium- member ensembles started at 3-month intervals range EPS is being used operationally in national and running to a range of 6 months. The “Early Warning Systems”. contributing prediction systems include 6 coupled GCMs from various European centres. Multi-model ensemble long-range forecast activities Climate prediction Long-range forecasts remain a challenging goal, It is also necessary to point out that numerical and I wish to note the 3- year collaborative weather prediction has led to the development research project entitled “Development of an and use of models for the simulation of the European Multimodel Ensemble system for Earth’s past, present and future climates. Early Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

climate simulations were only partially successful Ocean and corresponding change in atmospheric in depicting the features of the general pressure and circulation is known as the “El circulation. Within the last two decades, Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)” (Obasi, 2000). however, global models have improved and are now sufficiently successful in their simulation of The 1997-1998 El Niño event was an example of future climate. Scientists today are investigating a major disturbance which, as could be expected, the sensitivity of the Earth’s climate to changes in caused a longitudinal shift of the largest the concentration of radiatively active trace gas convective activities of the world from the constituents such as CO2 as well as other western tropical Pacific and Indonesia region greenhouse gases, and changes in the biosphere toward the central and eastern Pacific, and a such as the effects of deforestation. Ice-age major warming of the eastern Pacific during climates have been simulated in an effort to several months. This event was accompanied by understand the mechanisms of these radical drought in southern Africa and northern departures from the present climate. Australia, water deficit in Indonesia, excessive rain and flooding in Ecuador and Peru, as well as To make climate projections for many centuries high water levels and coastal erosion over the into the future, many components of the climate whole eastern Pacific shore. We note the system have to be represented in the climate extensive and diverse effects of this phenomenon models. Some of the most complex models which affected some 110 million people and consist of coupled atmosphere-ocean general caused damage worth US$ 96 billion worldwide. circulation models which have a resolution of a few hundred kilometres. Some recent models However, the Tropical Ocean and Global include the biosphere, carbon cycle and Atmosphere (TOGA) project of the atmospheric chemistry as well. The coupled WMO/ICSU/IOC World Climate Research models can be used for the prediction of future Programme (WCRP) carried over the period climate and its rate of change. As local climate 1985 to 1994, has already provided the means 88 change is influenced greatly by local features to monitor the development of ENSO such as mountains, regional climate models with phenomena in quasi-real time, and to get a a higher resolution (typically 50 km) are useful warning signal. The breakthrough in constructed for limited areas and run for shorter 1995 has given us the ability to predict the periods 20 years or so). (Some results from ENSO events (Figure 3.13) and their potential climate modelling as they relate to possible socio-economic impacts to a year in advance. climate change is presented in Chapter 6). Figure 3.14 shows how El Niño information has been used for sustainable agricultural production in Peru through the alternation of Atmosphere-ocean interaction crops, namely, between rice and cotton during dry years. Enhanced agricultural production is The developments relating to weather forecasting reflected when El Niño information was used in discussed above, such as improved data coverage Brazil for making specific agricultural decisions and the use of models of the atmosphere in in 1992 compared to 1987 (Obasi, 2000). In the numerical weather prediction and climate context of the application of climate modelling, have facilitated advances in another information to socio-economic development, set of geophysical phenomena, of interest to WMO introduced in 1995 — and has continued meteorologists and oceanographers alike. This is to implement — its Climate Information and the area of atmosphere-ocean interaction. Prediction Services (CLIPS) project. Through this project WMO, in collaboration with partner Research has demonstrated that substantial and institutions, has organized Regional Climate extensive sea- surface temperature anomalies Outlook Forums in several parts of the world, cause changes in the atmospheric circulation aimed at projecting the impacts of El Niño regime, on time scales of months to seasons. The events in agricultural planning and production. changes are particularly obvious in the tropical Similarly, research is underway to study the atmosphere when the warm western tropical impacts of changes in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific waters move east under the effect of Indian Oceans. Altogether, the atmospheric anomalous surface winds. This shift in the location science and oceanographic communities are of the warm water pool of the tropical Pacific making progress towards a combined Chapter 3 — Understanding planet Eearth through geosciences and research

operational oceanography and meteorology, to understand and predict significant changes in the coupled behaviour of the two envelopes of the planet.

Climate change

[Editor’s Note: At this point the address reviewed the issue of climate change, making use of IPCC’s Third Assessment Report. Climate change is dealt with in Chapter 6].

Implications for related disciplines, NMHSs and society In the preceding discussion, we have focussed mainly on the scientific and technical aspects of the recent developments in meteorology. However, the impact of these developments is not restricted to meteorology alone, but to other disciplines is, as well as to society in general. I wish now to touch briefly on some of these.

One of the most important benefits that has 89 resulted from advances in meteorology has been the increased reliability and range of weather forecast and climate prediction. Another benefit Figure 3.13—Interannual forecast of Sea Surface has been the accumulation of a large historical Temperature (SST) for the tropical Pacific and data base. Through this we have discovered a lot Indian Oceans Forecast

Rice Cotton Normal good Rice: average Cotton: Normal average Rice: average Cotton: Cold/dry poor Rice: good Cotton: Warm/wet good Rice: poor Cotton: Normal average Rice: average Cotton: Normal Good Rice: average Cotton:

130 100

110 80

90 60 Rice

70 of cotton

40 50 Thousands of hectares Figure 3.14— 30 30 Agricultural area 80/81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 sown in northern Growing Season coastal region in Peru. (Source: NOAA) *Normal climate, but soil remained moisture-saturated from prior year ENSO Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

more on the Earth-atmosphere system, which has interaction among the various components and helped towards a better understanding and the need for interdisciplinary collaboration in the appreciation of the fragility of this system. study of the Earth system (Obasi, 2001).

Furthermore, methods developed in modelling In this connection, it has been increasingly the atmosphere naturally lend themselves to the recognized that to meet the needs of society modelling of the oceans. Oceanographers, who and its growing population, and to avoid further also study a data-sparse fluid system, are also undermining the Earth’s essential life-support applying the methods of atmospheric scientists to systems, a new paradigm of scientific inquiry, learn more of the fundamental dynamics of the namely ‘sustainability science’ needs to be world’s oceans. invoked. It is a paradigm that addresses the complex interaction between the various Computational fluid dynamics has also benefited components of the Earth system and its from the meteorologists’ experience in interaction with society, together with the numerical modelling. For instance, the use of impact of society on the Earth system (Kates, et extended integration in climate simulations led al, 2001). In this overall context, the NMS to the discovery of an unsuspected non-linear should be able to position itself clearly in the computational instability. This problem led to minds of its various constituencies so that its some atmospheric scientists designing suitable contributions to society can be better finite difference methods for the integration of understood and appreciated. It should be able non-linear equations and some others to the to demonstrate that it contributes in development of new spectral methods in which irreplaceable ways to the goals that society the forecast variables are approximated by cherishes. Also, it should be able to assert its continuous, spectral (or wave-like) functions. authoritative scientific voice in relevant issues Moreover, the better understanding of such as climate change, natural disaster atmospheric processes has helped in sensitizing mitigation and international data exchange, as 90 the general public and decision makers on the well as provide information, assessment and importance of maintaining environmental advice pertinent to national policy formulation quality. International conventions and and decision-making. agreements have been adopted in recent years as a result of scientific development. We have, In this connection, it is also important to for instance, the United Nations Framework underscore that any national strategy for the Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto provision of meteorological and related services Protocol, the United Nations Convention on should build upon, not weaken, the framework of Desertification and the Vienna Convention for international cooperation. International the Protection of the Ozone Layer as well as the collaboration is needed because global data and Montreal Protocol and Amendments on information are required to address growing substances that deplete the ozone layer. In turn, environmental issues, and there is greater cost- there is greater scientific and political effectiveness in cooperation than in competing or appreciation of the potential influence of acting independently. human activities on the climate system. Hence, we can see that the advances that we Indeed, climatic change and its impact as well as have referred to are not only of scientific dwindling water resources and environmental importance but are related to national and degradation loom ever larger as among the major international structure and hence to the future problems confronting humanity as we enter the quality of life of the Earth’s population. 21st century. These were reflected in the UN Millennium Declaration and in the more recent World Summit on Sustainable Development Concluding remarks (Johannesburg, South Africa, August-September 2002) (Obasi, 2002b). Advances in meteorology In this presentation, we have dealt with the have led to a better understanding of the Earth development of meteorology and particularly system that ecompasses the atmosphere, recent scientific progress in this discipline. Our hydrosphere, cryosphere and the ecological discussion on scientific advances was made in system. Such knowledge has underlined the relation to three areas — weather prediction, Chapter 3 — Understanding planet Eearth through geosciences and research atmosphere-ocean interaction and climate programmes, WMO has been very much involved change. We have also seen that these scientific in advancing the frontiers of meteorological developments have an impact on other knowledge and their application for the disciplines, as well as on society. betterment of humankind. The topics that we have dealt with in this paper are examples of I should be remiss in my responsibility if I did where WMO’s commitment lies. not call attention to the role that has been played and continues to be played by WMO. As I The scientific advances that we have discussed remarked in the beginning of this paper, weather have also helped many National Meteorological systems do not recognize political boundaries. and Hydrological Services to fulfil their main For more than a century, international functions of safeguarding public safety, cooperation has been fostered through WMO promoting environmental quality and and its predecessor, the International contributing to the socio-economic Meteorological Organization (IMO). The development of nations. I must admit that as a international free exchange of meteorological scientist and an administrator, I am particularly data and information continues to be an proud to be directly involved in meteorology, important reminder of the work being carried where the interplay and mutual benefit between out by WMO. Through its Members, WMO seeks science and society is highly manifested. to achieve its main purpose which is to Certainly much work lies ahead. However, I feel coordinate, standardize and improve confident that the spirit of international meteorological and related activities throughout cooperation which has been passed on through the world, including such aspects as successive generations of meteorologists will observations, applications, research and training. continue to flourish and be even more Through its Members, including the NMHSs, and enhanced, to the great benefit of nations and by way of its scientific and technical peoples across our planet Earth. 91 CHAPTER 4 THE WORLD WEATHER WATCH AND PUBLIC WEATHER SERVICES1

A new global composite upper-air observing system in support of WMO programmes for the 21st century

Lecture at the Second Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems: “Towards an Integrated Upper-air System”, American Meteorological Society (Phoenix, Arizona, USA, 14 January 1998)

Introduction system was initially based on a relatively narrow Routine observations of the Earth’s atmosphere, set of requirements that were established in the particularly of the troposphere and stratosphere, early 1960s, largely in support of mesoscale and have been developing steadily since the latter short-range weather predictions out to 72 hours. part of the last century. The creation of the World Over the past 35 years, however, the WWW and 92 Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1950 its GOS have developed in response to the provided the intergovernmental framework for evolving needs of Member countries, related the establishment of observational networks for primarily to numerical weather predictions in the operational and research purposes, as laid down medium and longer range and subsequently to in Article 2(a) of the WMO Convention (WMO, climate studies and the possibilities offered by 1995a): “To facilitate world-wide co-operation in scientific and technological developments the establishment of networks of stations for the (WMO, 1995b). In the context of climate making of meteorological observations as well as monitoring and research, the observing systems hydrological and other geophysical observations also include a large set of measurements of the related to meteorology, and to promote the chemical constituents of the atmosphere, which establishment and maintenance of centres have been routinely carried out since the charged with the provisions of meteorological International Geophysical Year (IGY) of 1957- and related services.” 1958 and are now consolidated under WMO’s Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW). The overall A major surge forward in the development of networks were further enhanced during the First global observing networks came with the GARP2 Global Experiment (FGGE) in 1978-1979, establishment by WMO of the World Weather after which a host of research programmes such Watch (WWW) in 1963, and the major as the World Climate Research Programme mechanism for providing reliable and (WCRP) were developed to meet specific needs. standardized observational data for the world These have shown the value of additional and meteorological community has been the Global special observations and the need to incorporate Observing System (GOS) of the WWW. The them in the routine exchange of data. For

1 Editor’s Note: In many of Prof. Obasi’s presentations, the World Weather Watch (WWW) was prominently featured, and descriptions of it will be found in several chapters (see especially Chapter 1). In this Chapter, more specialized aspects of WWW are dealt with- the comprehensive upper- air observing system, satellites and weather radar. Included also are some of the uses of the WWW, particularly public weather services through the media. Aviation weather services are discussed in Chapter 12.2. Finally, the advancement of WWW in Africa and its contribution to improving sustainable economies and environment are outlined. The messages here apply to all regions.

2 Global Atmospheric Research Programme Chapter 4 — The World Weather Watch and Public Weather Services instance, the results of the Tropical Ocean and in conventional upper-air observations linked to Global Atmosphere (TOGA) project of the WCRP the austerity measures of many governments, enhanced seasonal predictions based on the and to the termination of the OMEGA Air monitoring of the El Niño phenomenon. Navigational System utilized by a significant number of radiosonde stations. In addition, the The idea for developing a new global composite availability of data has been threatened by the observing system, made up of both surface-based possible allocation of meteorological radio and space-based components, arose as new frequency spectra to other sectors. These technologies, especially in satellite systems, led to factors, and the need for modernizing the the availability of additional data sets and the WWW, have prompted WMO to investigate the continual review of WWW requirements. At the development of a new enhanced global same time, reductions in the availability of composite upper-air observing system, which conventional data have occurred in some parts of would take advantage of recent developments in the world after FGGE. These were brought about science and technology and combine all the as a result of the slow introduction of new available observational methods in an optimum technology in some regions, the cessation of way, to meet the requirements of the WMO operations of weather ships and of some land Programmes for the 21st century. stations for economic reasons, or the unavailability of the data acquired in the WMO Global Telecommunication System due to poor Global upper-air observing communications in some developing countries. In system order to address the issue of reduced data availability, there have been earlier attempts to Factors adversely affecting the develop regional composite observing systems, existing upper-air observing such as the Composite Observing System for the North Atlantic (COSNA) or other efforts under system the Operational WWW Systems Evaluation 93 (OWSE) in Africa and Europe. A number of external factors have affected the status of the present upper-air observing The new emerging technologies, such as systems over the years. First, despite the rapidly satellite systems, profilers and aircraft systems, growing volume of data generated by advanced have had a particularly positive impact on the observing systems in some parts of the world, upper-air component of the GOS by providing there is increasing concern at the slow new types of upper-air data over the world’s deterioration in the traditional upper-air oceans and data-sparse land areas, or by network in some developing countries and enhancing the existing observing systems. In countries with economies in transition, due to recent years, however, decreases in data the high cost of consumables and the availability have been noticed due to a reduction maintenance of their systems. This decline is

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Figure 4.1—Typical 30° 30° daily coverage of wind

data derived from 60° 60° satellite observations (Source: Météo France, 1997) 150° 120° 90° 60° 30° 0° 30° 60° 90° 120° 150° Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

reflected in Figure 4.3. About 200 stations are in the 400 to 406 MHz and the 1675 to 1700 MHz affected in this way, representing about a 21 per frequency ranges, which together are used for cent reduction over the WWW configuration. over 85 per cent of the radiosonde stations around the world. The other 15 per cent, which are Secondly, the OMEGA Radio-Navigation System operating under national arrangements, will terminated its operation in September 1997. This eventually be moved to one of the allocated system was used for wind-finding by over 25 per frequency bands, thus averting any loss of this cent of the operational stations in the global data. However, as the demand for additional network, and its loss could have resulted in a large frequencies due to continuing advances in reduction in upper-air observations. However, due telecommunication technologies continues to to timely action by NMHSs and WMO, the loss of grow, a diligent approach in this matter will be operational data has been much less than originally required in the future. feared. Data available at the major meteorological centres show that 166 of the 192 operational stations had already been converted to other wind- New composite upper-air finding systems by the time the OMEGA System system was terminated. The other 26 stations represent a temporary loss of about 14 per cent of operational Rationale and principles stations as their conversion is expected to be completed by the middle of 1998. Most The establishment of a new composite upper-air conversions are to the Global Positioning System observing system, as part of the overall (GPS), which actually gives a much more accurate modernization of the WWW, is driven largely by derivation of the wind velocity than the OMEGA the need to meet the observational requirements system. Other wind derivation conversions are for WMO’s Programmes in the early part of the mainly to Loran C Navigation System and to the 21st century. The requirements are continually use of the radio-theodolite. Thirdly, another being reviewed within the context of the 94 concern for the GOS has been the continuing Organization’s Long-term Plans. The Fifth WMO threat to meteorological radio frequencies, Long-term Plan, to cover the years 2000 to 2009, particularly with respect to radiosonde will gear its Programmes and activities to address, transmissions, by the growing requirements for among other things, many of the major global commercial communications services. WMO and a issues which currently concern humanity. These number of concerned government authorities include the need for improved weather actively addressed this issue with the International predictions for the mitigation of natural disasters Telecommunications Union (ITU) to safeguard the as a result of severe storms, floods and droughts, interests of the meteorological community. As a particularly in light of increasing related result, the recent ITU World Radio Conference, economic losses; climate variability; and held in Geneva during October and November interannual climate predictions and climate 1997, sustained the use of meteorological systems change projections. Improved prediction

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60° 60° Figure 4.2—Typical daily coverage by aircraft reports 150° 120° 90° 60° 30° 0° 30° 60° 90° 120° 150° (Source: ECMWF, 1997) Chapter 4 — The World Weather Watch and Public Weather Services

Figure 4.3—Percentage 24 300 of globe covered by radiosonde data 22 (Source: Palmer, Hadley 20 Centre, UK, 1996)

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8 100 Number of grid boxes with data 6

4 700 hPa 50 hPa Percentage of globe covered (5 deg. lat x 10 long grid boxes) Percentage 2

0 0 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 capabilities will benefit other programmes technologies are introduced, the new system concerning the escalating world population and should allow for adequate overlaps to enable a related food security, freshwater availability and smooth transition from the old to the new system sustainable development; global energy needs; for all WMO Member countries. and the degradation of environmental quality, 95 including the urban environment. Components of the new system To meet these requirements, a new WWW composite upper-air observing system should: With the advent of various new technologies, and taking into account the decrease in the (a) Be reliable and able to meet long-term conventional upper-air data availability, various needs of relevant WMO Programmes and a Observing System Experiments (OSEs) and wide variety of purposes and uses into the Observing System Simulation Experiments first few decades of the 21st century; (OSSEs), utilizing real and simulated data sets, (b) Cover ocean and data-sparse areas have been performed to improve the adequately; performance of numerical models. It is to be (c) Permit making new technologies available recalled that both OSEs and OSSEs played an at affordable costs, so that all member important role in the design of the Global countries could maintain and satisfactorily Weather Experiment (GWE) in the late 1970s and operate their national components of the eventually helped define the observing system and benefit from them in a requirements of the WWW. A number of recent sustainable and self-reliant manner; OSEs and OSSEs, where data from various (d) Permit the availability and accessibility of observing systems such as satellite radiances, data in the context of Resolution 40 of the aircraft observations and satellite winds were Twelfth World Meteorological Congress, used in comparison to standard NWP controls including data for operational, research and configuration, have provided further insight into educational purposes (WMO, 1995c). what a proposed new composite upper-air observing system should be based upon. The Such a global system should facilitate the initial components of such a system are expected strengthening of cooperation at national, regional to include: and global levels among countries and among relevant United Nations and Non-Governmental (a) A slightly reduced network of radiosonde Organizations (NGOs). Finally, as new stations that will be based on the use of Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

GPS and improved temperature and (a) The determination of the large-scale moisture sensors; atmospheric flow patterns in the northern (b) A significantly improved automated aircraft hemisphere is extremely dependent on reporting scheme that includes rawindsonde data, with aircraft data observations from both cruise level as well providing further improvement; as on ascent and descent; (b) The use of today’s satellite soundings in (c) An increase in high-resolution observations, numerical prediction models, particularly particularly in the lower troposphere, from polar orbiting satellite-retrieved profiles, radars, wind profilers, and other ground- such as TIROS operational vertical sounder based remote sensing systems; (TOVS), contribute more than (d) A new capability that will provide for the rawindsondes to determine the large-scale use of sounding data from the existing atmospheric flow patterns in the southern generation of meteorological satellites, hemisphere; and, particularly over land areas, as well as a (c) Today’s satellite soundings and satellite- new generation of instruments of higher derived winds have an impact of comparable resolution and precision; and, magnitude as rawindsondes in the tropics (e) An enhanced system of surface-based and and have a positive impact on models. satellite measurements of chemical constituents, such as greenhouse gases, aerosols and ozone, as a part of the Global Radiosondes Atmosphere Watch. The balloon-launched radiosonde has been the major element in the present Upper-air observing Potential impact of observing system and, despite the reduction in data systems on NWP models availability, this element will continue to play an important role in the future system. This could be 96 Although a complete summary of the recent OSEs enhanced by an increase in the number of ships and OSSEs is not possible here, some of the participating in the Automated Shipboard preliminary results of an April 1997 Aerological Programme (ASAP). The use of GPS WMO/COSNA Workshop on Impact Studies, and new sensors should reduce the errors in which reviewed recent experiments, are shown these observations so as to be commensurate in Table 4.1 as a rough guide. It is accepted that with the expected accuracy of the numerical the magnitude of the impact depends, for prediction models. Because of the improvements example, upon the model, the assimilation in prediction capability and in data assimilation scheme used, and the impact variable. These techniques, it is expected that a new mode of results (WMO, 1998) suggest that: observing could be used which would suggest that, in some cases, observations could possibly

Neutral up to up to up to up to 1 1 1 FEW HR /4 day /2 day 1 day 1 /2 days TOVS ■ Northern CMW ■ hemisphere Sondes ■ extratropics Aircraft ■ (locally) SCAT ■ TOVS ■ CMW ■ Tropics Sondes ■ Aircraft ■ SCAT ■ TOVS ■ ■ Southern CMW Table 4.1—Impact of hemisphere Sondes ■ extratropics Aircraft ■ observing systems on SCAT ■ NWP models (rough guide). Chapter 4 — The World Weather Watch and Public Weather Services be done on a selective rather than on a pre-selected levels on ascent and descent. In the prescheduled basis. Recent communication lower part of the troposphere, these levels are at improvements using satellites will also reduce the every 10 hectopascals. The potential then exists loss of available data. A subset of the new upper- to have such data on location at nearly every air configuration that is required to support the major airport in the world. WMO recently Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) for use established a panel of some Member countries to in climate change studies, the GCOS Upper-air implement AMDAR on a global basis. The first Network (GUAN), has also been identified. meeting of this panel is expected to be convened in March of this year.

Aircraft systems Satellite systems

For several decades, aircraft have been providing The past 35 years clearly show a continued reports on pressure, temperature and winds at growth in the capability of satellites in support of cruising level, but mostly these observations have many aspects of meteorology. The role of the been based on manual techniques. However, satellite in the composite observing system will about a decade ago, development began to therefore continue to grow in importance by: accelerate on the automation of aircraft reports. Two systems emerged. The first, ASDAR (Aircraft (a) The increasing use of soundings and to Satellite Data Relay), uses a data reporting pseudo-soundings from geostationary mechanism on meteorological geostationary satellites over both ocean and land areas; satellites, while the second, ACARS (Aircraft (b) The increased number of channels and the Communication Addressing and Reporting enhanced precision on sounders from System), uses the aeroplane’s own avionics and polar-orbiting satellites; communication system. (c) The enhanced resolution of derived winds at increased numbers of levels using several 97 Both automated aircraft systems are now referred elements, including clouds and water to as AMDAR (Aircraft Meteorological Data vapour; and Relay). During the past five years of (d) The use of scatterometer information and demonstration of national AMDAR programmes, microwave techniques to improve aircraft observations have jumped from about soundings in areas dominated by cloudiness 3 500 to over 45 000 per day, but most of these and over ocean areas to characterize the were at flight altitude. However, more wind at the surface. An example of such is importantly, in addition to data at flight altitude, shown in Figure 4.4. AMDAR can make high-resolution observations at

Figure 4. 4—Surface winds over the southern Indian Ocean, indicating tropical cyclone Edwige, derived from ERS scatterometer (Source: Météo France, 1996) Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

To try and fulfil all the upper-air requirements of Challenges for the development WMO’s and other related programmes, such as GCOS, measurements of atmospheric of a new system composition in particular greenhouse gases are needed to continue investigations into climate The success of a new composite upper-air observ- change. The satellite measurements of ozone will ing system is fundamental to the science of continue to be the backbone of this type of meteorology and is dictated by the need for a cost- measurements. Satellites are also expected to play effective system that will meet the growing needs a major role in acquiring methane and nitrous of WMO’s programmes and of the world commu- oxide data and providing profiles of carbon nity, including the challenges of sustainable dioxide and water vapour (Obasi, 1997). development in the 21st century. These needs However, it is now important to integrate space- have also been expressed in Agenda 21 of the UN based and surface-based observations to provide Conference on Environment and Development for better and more timely measurements of (UNCED) and various Conventions, namely, the chemical parameters from the lower troposphere. UN Framework Convention on Climate Change The future enhancements of the Global (UNFCCC), the UN Convention to Combat Atmosphere Watch, including improved real-time Desertification (CCD) and the Vienna Convention exchange of data through the Global for the Protection of the Ozone Layer. Telecommunication System, will form the major building block for this aspect of the new The global composite upper-air observing system composite upper-air observing system. is expected to be a major component of an Integrated Global Observing Strategy (IGOS), in which WMO and several other organizations have Other surface-based systems recognized the need to concentrate their efforts to set up truly robust observing systems, Doppler radars and wind profilers have shown integrating both space- and surface-based 98 the ability to provide quality wind data of high components of global observations and covering resolution in both space and time, especially in all relevant environmental parameters. WMO will the lower troposphere. Today this new profiler contribute to the Strategy through the WWW, technology is still largely in a demonstration climate monitoring activities under the World mode, but many nations are considering Climate Programme, its hydrological networks operational programmes that could contribute to and the GAW. The Strategy also includes the the composite network. One of the major Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), the obstacles to the implementation of operational Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) and the profilers has been the availability of radio Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS), frequency spectra. However, the ITU World which are three international observing systems Radio Conference last year agreed to regulatory jointly sponsored by WMO and partner provisions for the operation of wind profilers in organizations. various frequency bands, such as the 449 MHz used in the USA. There is the potential to further If the goals of the new composite upper-air enhance radar and profiler wind data in the observing system are to be reached, there are future, when produced in conjunction with other some associated activities and challenges that will sounding techniques that provide temperature need to be undertaken. profiles, such as with radio-acoustic sounding systems. The availability of these forms of First, there is a need for a coordinated approach technology, as a part of a composite observing among WMO Member countries. This will system, will contribute in large part to satisfying include utilizing, where appropriate, regional the requirements of mesoscale and local area and subregional mechanisms for observing forecast models. systems, such as have been independently initiated within Central and North America and Europe. The existing mechanisms for the coordination and design of composite systems deal with restricted areas, such as the North Atlantic. WMO could evolve a new international mechanism involving representative groups of Chapter 4 — The World Weather Watch and Public Weather Services its Member countries from all regions of the to a real-time observing system. Furthermore, the world, similar, for example, to the possibility of new concepts will be examined, Intergovernmental Panel which was established such as one-instrumented “small satellites” and for FGGE, including its Joint Organizing the possibility of the acquisition of space-based Committee under WMO and the International data sets from commercially operated satellites. Council of Scientific Unions (ISCU). If this is seen within the context of an IGOS, then the Fourthly, it is important that there be a overseeing mechanism should also include the continuation and enhancement of donor country organizations concerned. In this respect, special involvement to ensure the needed participation consideration should be given to the needs of of developing countries and countries with Members from developing countries and economies in transition in fulfilling the countries with economies in transition, which requirements of the composite system within need to be involved in and stand to benefit their national territories. considerably from a composite upper-air observing system. Finally, new and improved data assimilation techniques are needed by the major processing Secondly, there is a need to further develop our centres to provide the key integration of the partnerships with the airline and shipping observing elements for use in numerical models. industries to assure further development of It is envisaged that the performance of the automated meteorological reports from elements of the GOS will be similar to those in commercial aircraft and voluntary ships. In this Table 4.2 (WMO, 1981). respect, an appropriate and affordable mechanism for receiving and processing the new aircraft data on ascent and descent, which would Conclusion not be a burden to the aircraft operators, will need to be sought. In addition, there will be the This paper has considered the rationale of a need to support efforts to develop other remote- proposed new global composite upper-air 99 sensing systems, such as small autonomous observing system, as well as the principles and (drone) reconnaissance aircraft which have the components which it has to satisfy in order to potential to economically provide data over a support WMO’s programmes for the 21st century. wide variety of atmospheric systems and in target The proposed system is based on achievable areas, particularly over the oceans (WMO, 1997). technological possibilities, as can be inferred from present-day realities. It has also benefited Thirdly, the continuation of the constellation of from the results of recent OSEs and OSSEs in polar orbiting and geostationary satellites will terms of the specifications of the individual continue to be vital. Therefore, it will be components. While the full configuration of the important to maintain a close collaboration with new composite system still needs to be the space and satellite operating agencies, such as developed, it is our view that such a task should through the Coordination Group for be undertaken through a suitably constituted Meteorological Satellites (CGMS) and the institutional mechanism. Such an undertaking will Committee on Earth Observation Satellites require the support and collaboration of our (CEOS), to ensure the development of new and partners in the Integrated Global Observing more precise instruments, as well as to address Strategy (IGOS) and those who will benefit from a the vast and ever-changing satellite system providing improved quantity and quality telecommunications capability that is important upper-air meteorological data. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development -1 -1 -1 -1 † possible 24/day 1–4/day 5% † ascent/descent ascent/descent <0.1 km2–8 km0.2-1 km 0.1–35 km*< 0.1 km 0–50 km 0-6 km* 1–4/day Cruise level + Minimum of 4/day 1-24/day 1–24/day 0.3–1°C 1–2°C 0.5-2°C 0.5–1°C Vertical Estimated Frequency of Observational Verticalresolution0.3–1.2 km0.1 km Estimated Frequency vertical range0.1–1.2 km 0.1–35 km*0.5–4 km** Cruise level + observation 0.1–20 km* At available levels 1–4/day 1–24/day When available, maximum 1–24/day error (RMS) < 0.1 km 2–8 m s 1–3 m s 1–3 m s 0–12 km 1–3 m s 100 2–4 km 0–12 km Minimum of 4/day 10% ut performance characteristics not yet available b and sparsely populated areas locationsin cloudy 250 km Best over land, limited over oceans 250 km Best over land, limited over oceans 250 km Able to improve resolution over land 250 km Best over land, limited over oceans 250 km Used to improve resolution over land ≤ ≥ ≥ ≥ ≤ moisture motion largest errors for upper cloud sensing + aircraft AircraftWind profiler radar 100 km Limited to regular flight routes Satellite remote sensingSurface-based remote 50 km Global coverage Operational systems under development, Satellite cloud andSatellite cloud 100 km Most useful at low latitudes, sensing Aircraft 100 km Limited to regular flight routes Satellite remote sensingSurface-based remote 50 km Global coverage, but largest errors Expected performance of elements the GOS achievable by year 2005 — Temperature Rawinsonde wind factor and sparsely populated areas humidity and sparsely populated areas Meteorological Observing systemcoverage Meteorological Observing variableEstimated Horizontal Horizontal Rawinsonde + pilot resolution Relative Rawinsonde * range depends on equipment used Vertical ** type Depends on cloud † resolution degraded at heights above 8 km to between 0.5 and 1 km, Vertical and observation error at 10% Table 4.2 (Source: WMO, 1995) Chapter 4 — The World Weather Watch and Public Weather Services

Welcome address at the opening of the Fourth EUMETSAT user Forum in Africa1

(Kampala, Uganda, 25 September 2000)

It gives me great pleasure to be here today and to community, scientists from Africa and Europe, address the Fourth European Organization for the and the international institutions supporting Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites development projects in Africa. This objective is (EUMETSAT) User Forum in Africa. On behalf of extremely important and of particular interest to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and my own, I wish to take this opportunity to (NMHSs) in Africa and to WMO as a whole. thank you, Mr President, and, through you, the Government and people of Uganda, for hosting As you are aware, Members of WMO have been this important event and for the warm welcome voluntarily participating in a very unique and and generous hospitality accorded to me and to fruitful international cooperation scheme through my delegation since our arrival in Kampala. Your the operations of several global systems. The presence here is a further expression of your WMO’s World Weather Watch (WWW) is one personal commitment to the promotion of such example. Its Global Observing System (GOS) science and technology, and in particular the provides the necessary data required by WMO sciences of meteorology and hydrology, in Members in meeting their national needs. While support of sustainable development. I am also most WMO Members contribute to the surface- thankful to Mr Bwango Apuuli, Commissioner for based GOS, only a few have sufficient resources Meteorology, and to his staff, for the excellent to operate environmental satellites that form the 101 arrangements made in ensuring the success of the nucleus of the space-based GOS. Forum. I wish to extend my sincere appreciation to Dr Mohr, Director of EUMETSAT, for inviting Since the establishment of EUMETSAT, its satel- me to address this Forum. lites have continuously made major contributions to WWW’s space-based GOS. Indeed today in The EUMETSAT Forum, whose objective is to almost all countries in Africa, Europe and the help the current and potential user-community of Middle East, over 40 per cent of the Earth’s sur- meteorological satellites in Africa and the face is covered, on a half-hourly Basis, by Mediterranean Basin to take the best possible EUMETSAT’s operational satellites Meteosat-5 and advantage of the potential of meteorological -7. Additionally, the commitment by the EUMET- satellite systems, has proved extremely useful. SAT Council to continue the coverage over the This fourth User Forum is even more important data-sparse Indian Ocean, now served by and crucial since its main purpose is the Meteosat-5, will ensure adequate detection and exchange of information on the new Meteosat monitoring of tropical cyclones in that area. Second Generation (MSG) systems and the review of the initiatives undertaken in the framework of Within the framework of its development plans, the Preparation for the Use of Meteosat Second EUMETSAT is planning to start, in 2002, operation Generation in Africa (PUMA) to mobilize funds for of its MSG satellites with the launch of MSG-1. the timely replacement of the Meteosat ground- These new satellites will greatly enhance our receiving equipment in the region. Another knowledge of atmospheric parameters by objective of the Forum is to identify ways of providing more frequent data with better developing new self-sustainable operational accuracy. The new EUMETSAT polar satellites, the activities at the local, regional and continental Meteorological Operational Satellite (METOP) levels, based on MSG data, involving the donor series, will follow the MSG. With both

1 Among those present were His Excellency, Mr Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, President of the Republic of Uganda; Honourable Ministers, Mr Bwango Apuuli, Permanent Representative of Uganda with WMO and Commissioner for Meteorology and Dr Tilman Mohr, Director, European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT). Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

geostationary and polar-orbiting series, In this connection, the services provided by EUMETSAT will become a full-service satellite meteorological satellites for the provision of operator. Guided by the needs of WMO observational data and for the exchange of Members, EUMETSAT is one of the cornerstones information have become indispensable. Today, of the WWW. EUMETSAT’s initiative in acting as a Meteorological and Hydrological Services in catalyst to improve the utilization of its data Africa rely heavily on information provided via through the User Forums such as this one is satellites for their routine operations. As a result, strong evidence of its commitment to WMO and 49 countries have acquired and installed facilities to the world meteorological community. to access the services provided by meteorological satellites. It is therefore important for the To support the efforts of Members and Meteorological Services in Africa to replace their organizations such as EUMETSAT, WMO obsolete satellite ground-receiving systems with developed in the early 1990s a new Strategy for facilities compatible with the new generation of Education and Training in Satellite Matters to meteorological satellites expected to be launched ensure the full utilization of available satellite in the year 2002. In fact, WMO has taken timely data, especially in developing countries. Several initiatives to assist these Services in securing new principles to implement this Strategy were funding for this purpose. adopted, one being the co-sponsorship of “centres of excellence” by the satellite operators. In this regard, you may recall that the Task Team EUMETSAT was the first to respond to this on PUMA was established with the objective of challenge and its recent support to the centres in developing a strategy for the transition Meteosat Nairobi, Kenya, and Niamey, Niger, have greatly Transitional Programme (MTP) to MSG for the enhanced forecasting skills in Africa. African user community and of following up on the resources mobilization efforts to fund the A major concern in the African region today is replacement of ground-receiving and processing the poor data availability at several National equipment in Africa. WMO has been actively 102 Meteorological Centres from the national and involved, in collaboration with representatives of regional observational networks for day-to-day EUMETSAT and of subregional intergovernmental operational functions. Successive annual WMO economic groupings in Africa, in the develop- surveys show that availability of data from Africa ment of appropriate project proposals which at WMO regional and world centres have were submitted to the European Commission. I remained low. The main reasons are the difficulty am pleased that these efforts have been success- faced by several countries in maintaining their ful and that financial agreements for the acquisi- observational network and the inadequacy of tion of the satellite receiving systems for some of meteorological telecommunication facilities at the economic subgroupings such as the Indian the national and regional levels. In this regard, Ocean Commission have been concluded. Funds some improvements in the implementation of the have also been secured for NMHSs of Member Regional Meteorological Telecommunication countries of the Economic Community of West Network (RMTN) in Africa are being made African States (ECOWAS), the Intergovernmental through the introduction of satellite circuits. On Authority on Development (IGAD) and the the positive side, most National Meteorological Southern African Development Community Services in Africa have developed, to varying (SADC). Concerning countries which are not degrees, national and regional capacities to presently covered by the European Community’s provide seasonal climate outlooks and advisories funding mechanism, WMO is working closely with a lead-time of up to a season. Such with the National Meteorological Services and information is considered extremely useful by with potential donor Members to establish a governments, development partners and relief Trust Fund that will cover the costs of the oganizations. The Climate Outlook Forums required equipment. I would like to take this organized in the various subregions in Africa opportunity to express my appreciation to the since 1995 by the African Centre of members of the Task Team on PUMA and to Meteorological Applications for Development EUMETSAT for their dedicated work in the mobi- (ACMAD) and the Drought Monitoring Centres in lization of resources for this important cause. collaboration with WMO, other relevant institutions and economic subgroupings, have Finally, I would like to call upon all concerned, contributed to the success achieved. especially development partners, to redouble Chapter 4 — The World Weather Watch and Public Weather Services their efforts to ensure the success of this project part, WMO remains committed to assisting which will, I am convinced, contribute towards NMHSs in Africa and doing whatever is necessary enhancing the capabilities of NMHSs in Africa to to ensure the success of this initiative. participate efficiently in major socio-economic development activities of their countries. For its I wish this Forum a successful outcome.

Meteorology and the media in the 21st century

Address at the 29th Broadcast Meteorology Conference of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) (San Francisco, USA, 22 June 2000)

I wish to extend my congratulations to the weather maps in real-time followed the invention American Meteorological Society (AMS) for of the electric telegraph by Samuel Morse in the focusing attention on the theme of the 1830s. As of 1849, the telegraph was used for Conference and for the excellent organization of regular transmission of weather reports. On 1 this event. I also wish to recognize the presence April 1875, the London Times newspaper began of Dr James Baker, Under Secretary for Oceans publishing regular weather charts — exactly 85 and Atmosphere and Administrator of the years before the USA launched the first weather National Oceanographic and Atmospheric satellite, TIROS-1. Administration (NOAA) and General Jack Kelly, Director of the National Weather Service and In the following years, weather became a regular Permanent Representative of the USA with WMO feature in a large number of print media in 103 who have both continued to enhance excellent Europe, North America and other parts of the and fruitful cooperation between WMO and the world. However, it was not until after the inven- USA. Their presence here is also an indication of tion of radio and television that the popularity of the importance they attach to the theme weather forecasts reached unprecedented levels. “Meteorology and the Media in the 21st Century”. Indeed, the world’s first television weather forecast was transmitted by the BBC on 3 November The relationship between meteorology and the 1936. It lasted six minutes during which isobars media can be traced back to the 17th century, were drawn on a map while a voice read the when in May 1692 a British weekly called A forecast to the accompaniment of a light music. Collection for the Improvement of Husbandry The first onscreen weather forecaster appeared and Trade published one of the world’s earliest in North America, when meteorologists such as weather forecasts based on climate data. It Canada’s Percy Saltzman set a benchmark for published a table for the next seven days, clarity and state-of-the-art graphics. complete with air pressure and wind readings. How accurate this was is not known, but it is By 1945, weather reporting on radio and televi- unlikely to have been too precise as it was based sion became a regular feature in many countries. on observations made during the previous year, Most of the weather presenters were meteorolo- from which the reader was invited to ‘draw gists or were coached by meteorologists from the prognostications’. A multitude of “forecasts” National Meteorological Services (NMSs) of the followed and by 1711, a magazine called Monthly countries concerned. By the late 1960s, the Weather Paper was issued. A significant weather presenters gained a permanent hold on development in the media exposure of weather radio and television schedules. Gradually there- data resulted from the establishment in the year after, the growing confidence of the public aris- 1780, by the Mannheim-based Societas ing from improvements in the accuracy and the Meteorologica Palatina, of 39 weather stations, range of weather forecasts, associated with two of which were in North America. The first increasingly sophisticated graphic presentations, weather maps based on past weather appeared in led the broadcasters to air such forecasts during the 1820s. However, the ability to construct prime-time viewing. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

As we are aware, the interest in weather forecasts Organization to further respond to the arises from the fact that, every day, people take development of NMSs. decisions based on weather information that have either a social or economic impact, or can result As we look to the first few decades of the 21st in saving life and property. National century, there are a number of issues that need to Meteorological Services have a long tradition as be addressed collectively by the NMSs and the providers of comprehensive weather information media in view of the global concern about the on a routine basis, with particular emphasis on continued environmental degradation, ozone layer public safety and welfare and sustainable depletion, and the potential impact of climate development. In this context, the mass media has change and variability on sustainable develop- proved to be an essential ally of the National ment. The synergy between the NMSs and the Meteorological Services, particularly when they media is therefore essential for a better under- have to disseminate warnings of extreme weather standing by the public of the sciences of events to the public. It is recognized that the meteorology and hydrology and their role in mission of the Services related to saving lives and addressing the challenges related to global change. reducing economic damage continues to be best This collaborative effort will contribute to sensitiz- served through the media. Moreover, to a ing the public and decision makers, and to considerable extent, the media contribute to the ensuring a greater state of preparedness on their visibility of NMSs and to the appreciation of their part to address the challenges. Already now, televi- role by the public and decision makers alike. sion weather presenters are increasingly being asked to prepare and present scientific reports on While in the past, WMO’s efforts had appeared to long-term trends in weather and climate. Such be primarily devoted to improving the accuracy requirements will place increasing demands on and range of weather forecasts and climate the print media and broadcast schedules over the projection, the Organization had nevertheless next decades. been giving considerable attention to the 104 strengthening of the natural alliance between the Furthermore, in view of the improvement in fore- media and the National Meteorological Services. casting capabilities extending to several days and In particular, WMO has been contributing to the seasons, it is expected that the demand for climate capacity building of the Services through outlooks will gain greater importance among strengthened media training programmes, which broadcasting networks, and it is up to those best include presentation skills, management of qualified — the weather presenters — to take a advanced animation techniques and improved lead in this field. The communication of the right understanding of forecast models and analysis. information on climate change and variability and their potential impacts, as well as on other issues Furthermore, WMO has been involving several related to weather and climate, such as mitigation broadcasters in its media training seminars for on- of natural disasters, ozone layer depletion and camera meteorologists and weather presenters, pollution transport, is important to every nation. particularly bearing in mind the needs of Therefore, the term “public weather services” may developing countries. These seminars have been soon be supplemented with the term “public useful to the personnel of NMS in learning basic weather- and climate-related services”. In the years communication skills, such as how to deal more ahead, WMO will continue to provide the neces- effectively with the media and how to present sary support to the National Meteorological weather information on television and on radio. Services to improve their communication skills in Such training events also feature lectures and such important areas, and also encourage the discussions on trends and policies in the domain media and the NMSs to work together as allies. of public information and services. Educational tools such as the Weather and the Media: A Information technology has developed Press Relations Guide and the Guide to Public dramatically during the last 30 years. Impressive Weather Services Practices were also developed progress has been made in the graphic as the WMO media training programmes presentations of weather and climate data expanded. The establishment of the WMO Public alongside the growth of satellite-based Weather Services Programme in 1995 and the telecommunications capabilities to monitor and expanding activities under the WMO Information disseminate weather forecasts regionally and and Public Affairs Programme enabled the globally. The continued advances in Chapter 4 — The World Weather Watch and Public Weather Services telecommunications technology and the ensure that improvement in presentation is not expansion of the concept of specialized weather effected at the expense of important information channels will offer new opportunities for the to be conveyed and of the professionalism of the NMSs and the media to collaborate further. WMO meteorological broadcasters. recognizes the need to enhance its activities so that its Members may obtain the relevant A challenge for the Meteorological Services is to information from the global network and interact carry out their national responsibility to warn and with the local media in the provision of high- inform the public-at-large more effectively, while quality weather and climate information to the at the same time providing highly desirable public and decision makers. To be effective, programme content to media outlets. The NMSs continued efforts should be devoted to ensuring should therefore be encouraged to work with that such information is presented in a clear and media representatives during the development concise manner. In the future, continued stages of public weather- and climate-related prod- emphasis should therefore be placed on ucts. This will ensure that product formats adapt identifying the target audience to ensure that the readily to the operational constraints of media weather information is understood and outlets, that broadcast schedules can be agreed appropriately interpreted, so that it forms the upon so that these products can be received basis for necessary timely actions. during optimum viewing or listening periods, and that urgent products such as weather warnings are It should be noted, however, that the advances in broadcast immediately. In this respect, it is essen- communication technology, combined with the tial that, where none exists, coordination growth in the number of meteorologists indepen- mechanisms such as standing committees be estab- dently employed by broadcasters, have to some lished between the National Meteorological extent led to a reduction in the contacts and Services and media organizations. The committee personal relations between on-screen meteorolo- could be entrusted, among other things, with gists and the National Meteorological Services. It making specifications about general practices and may be generally useful for independent weather standards to be observed in communicating rele- 105 presenters to learn more about the programmes vant information to the public. The partnership and activities of their NMS — other than their role between National Meteorological Services and the as generators of weather data — and about WMO’s media requires mutual understanding and respect programmes and activities. Such contacts may lead for each partner’s obligations, responsibilities, to increased knowledge by broadcast meteorolo- capabilities and limitations. In particular, it is gists of important developments in evolving areas, extremely important to avoid the provision of such as climate predictions and pollution control. conflicting weather information in different media The broadcast meteorologists will also become outlets, especially as regards warnings, in order to aware of the role of NMSs in environmental moni- ensure that the safety of the community is not toring and in the formulation and implementation compromised. It should be emphasized that in all of national and regional policies and international future initiatives, the National Meteorological conventions related to the environment. This may Service should remain the authority as regards the eventually lead to an increase in audience interest issuance of weather- and climate-related warnings. and public knowledge of the wider role of meteorology in daily life. Independent weather Another dimension of the partnership with the presenters should therefore collaborate more national and local media concerns proper closely with NMSs to provide more comprehen- acknowledgement of the role of National sive and up-to-date services to the public. Meteorological Services and WMO in providing the core infrastructure, data and products on which Another important issue concerns the profession forecasts and warnings are based. Providing this of meteorological broadcasters. It is natural for the attribution would help enhance the visibility of managing director of a broadcasting network, be it National Meteorological Services and therefore public or private, to be interested in increasing its help them to receive the support necessary to audience. Since the weather segment of the news maintain their infrastructure. Moreover, this would broadcast will continue to receive great attention, contribute in providing governments and managing directors will seek ways of making responsible funding authorities with information of weather forecast presentations even more attrac- the important role of their own Services in tive. However, every effort should be made to generating basic data and products, including Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

timely and reliable predictions and warnings to In addressing the above issues, WMO has initiated satisfy national needs and those of the global contacts with the media organizations that are meteorological community. In this respect, I wish engaged in international broadcasts of to take this opportunity to pay tribute to BBC meteorological information, with a view to Television for the attribution it has been making developing more effective working relationships. since 1 November 1999, on each broadcast Recently, and within the context of the 50th weather bulletin, to the UK Met Office and WMO. Anniversary of WMO, the 10th International In order to build a stronger partnership, I wish to Weather Festival (FIM) was launched at WMO invite you all to consider following the same Headquarters together with a first-time scientific example of giving due credit to both your National media conference on “Climate Change and Meteorological Service and WMO. As you are Variability — Future Scenarios: What should aware, WMO coordinates the global systems Humankind Prepare for”, organized in including the World Weather Watch, under which cooperation with the International Association of the NMSs of the world generate and disseminate Broadcast Meteorology (IABM). These efforts will meteorological data and products. be pursued through an ongoing dialogue and by inviting the media concerned to strengthen their WMO Member countries, especially the develop- participation in the relevant WMO activities ing ones, have voiced their concerns over the including human resources development. impact of the increasing diversity of media through which the public could access weather As we move into the 21st century, WMO is information. These concerns range from the accu- prepared to collaborate with national and racy and completeness of meteorological international media through a number of its information presented by broadcasters which may scientific and technical programmes, especially differ from those of forecasters from National through the Information and Public Affairs Meteorological Services, particularly when interna- Programme and Public Weather Services tional forecasts become more detailed. Equally, Programme. The use of Internet for the 106 concerns were expressed regarding the potentially dissemination of meteorological and related adverse impact of international television weather information is being encouraged and the WMO programmes on the visibility and the recognition Website provides many linkages to the sources of of the National Meteorological Services within such information. It also contains information on their own countries and in the context of interna- WMO programme activities, press releases and tional cooperation. Every effort should therefore publications. The WMO Website will be further be made with the support of the media to ensure developed, and relevant comments and proposals appropriate recognition by governments of the are certainly welcome. role and the contributions of NMSs. The continuing dialogue and cooperation with At the same time, it is recognized that there may the broadcast meteorology community is a be obstacles, both from technological and organi- valuable development that would further help zational points of view, which would make it address the issues and challenges lying ahead. difficult for international broadcasters to have WMO can and will help address these challenges timely access to the official national weather and by providing the broadcast meteorology climate data and information in a particular region community with a greater sense of belonging to a of interest. There may also be concerns about the global system. increasing cost of operations as a result of national and international policies on the exchange of I look forward to the further strengthening of our meteorological data and products. In this regard, I collaboration so as to enable the meteorological would invite the media to adopt, as a blueprint, community and the media to meet the unprece- WMO’s policy on international exchange of data dented challenges of the 21st century. I wish to and products to which all Member countries thank again the AMS for promoting such contacts. adhere. As to the future, WMO will continue to address issues related to the international Aviation Meteorology: For a discussion on this exchange of meteorological data and products and important topic, see the statement in Chapter to put in place appropriate mechanisms to 12.2 to the Conjoint Session of the Commission enhance such cooperation with the international for Aeronautical Meteorology Divisional Meeting media. (ICAO, Montreal, September 2002). Chapter 4 — The World Weather Watch and Public Weather Services

Statement at the meeting on the Regional Association I strategy for enhancement and improvement of the World Weather Watch (WWW) Basic Systems and New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD)

(Johannesburg, South Africa, 28 August 2002)

I wish to express my appreciation to the In this process, a prerequisite is the availability Government of South Africa for hosting this and access to meteorological data and products meeting during the World Summit on Sustainable for operational activities as well as for research, Development (WSSD), thus enabling most of the which is particularly relevant to national sustain- participants to participate also in the proceedings able development. of the Summit. It is expected that the Summit will consider the effects of weather, climate and The World Weather Watch is a unique global sys- water on economic growth, social development tem, formally established by WMO in 1963, and conservation of natural resources and the through which every country in the world col- environment, particularly in Africa. lects, processes and exchanges observational data and products for day-to-day weather forecasts, As we are all aware, African countries continue to warnings and other uses. It also contributes data experience various weather-, climate- and water- for research work in the atmospheric sciences, related extreme events. Drought remains a regu- including the development of climate models and 107 lar threat to most of Africa. The Horn of Africa projects (see Chapter 1). was afflicted by severe droughts in 1998 and 1999 and about 16 million people were affected It is against this background that the twelfth ses- in the subregion. Some southern African coun- sion of the WMO Regional Association I (Africa), tries are presently being affected by drought and held in Arusha, United Republic of Tanzania, in are threatened by famine and hunger. The Sahel 1998, decided to develop and implement a countries also continue to be devastated by Strategy for the Enhancement of the WWW Basic drought from year to year. This month, many Systems in Africa in order to provide sustainable countries suffered from severe flooding in solutions to address the shortcomings in the Senegal, Guinea, Niger and Mali. We all also Global Observing System (GOS), the Global remember that southern Africa was affected by Telecommunication System (GTS), the Global severe floods in 2000 and 2001. Data-processing System (GDPS), data management, and Public Weather Services (PWS). To mitigate the effects of natural disasters such as droughts, floods, severe storms and tropical The Strategic Plan for the implementation and cyclones, WMO and its Members pursue efforts improvement of the World Weather Watch to enhance further response capabilities of (WWW) basic systems in Africa is now being National Meteorological and Hydrological developed. It focuses on the following areas: Services (NMHSs) and regional institutions in Africa. Their efforts aim at improving the accura- (a) Enhancing the availability of weather, cy, timeliness and lead time of meteorological climate and environmental data and forecasts and warnings and the availability of information for sustainable socio-economic water and climate information and services to development in Africa, through the policy and decision makers and other end-users implementation of automatic weather of various socio-economic sectors. Such sectors stations with appropriate communications include food security, agricultural production, to National Meteorological Centres (NMCs) energy, water resources management, health, and the promotion of, for example, marine fisheries, forestry, and air, land and sea transport. observations; Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

(b) Preparation, distribution and application of of the poor to natural hazards and environmental meteorological products required for sus- risks. This will be achieved by enhancing natural tainable socio-economic development of disaster preparedness, prevention and mitigation Africa, through the use of modern commu- programmes for the African countries concerned, nication technologies and satellite-based and by promoting the provision of timely and dissemination systems and strengthening skillfully tailored weather and climate information the capacities of NMHSs and regional insti- and services in support of income-earning tutions to improve weather forecasts and climate-sensitive activities of rural and poor urban seasonal and long-term climate predictions; communities. (c) Use of internet in Africa for improving the exchange of meteorological an In terms of the health initiative of NEPAD, the environmental information through, among Strategic Plan will contribute to strengthening other things, the implementation of Web national and regional capacities for the provision sites at NMHSs; and of climate information and prediction services in (d) Development of procurement, support of health programmes on communicable manufacturing, maintenance, repair and tropical-related diseases, including malaria and calibration facilities within Africa for respiratory problems. meteorological observing systems. In the area of agriculture and food security, the The Strategic Plan for the implementation and Strategic Plan will contribute to support national, improvement of the WWW basic systems in subregional and continental capacity-building Africa is also a WMO direct response to the calls activities for the provision and effective use of by the United Nations Millennium Declaration for better weather, climate and agrometeorological enhanced and innovative support to Africa’s information and services. These will include development efforts. In addition, the Strategic seasonal climate outlooks, agrometeorological Plan, when implemented, will contribute to the warnings and advisory services in response to 108 objectives of the New Partnership for Africa’s farmers’ needs and requirements. Development (NEPAD). As we are all aware, NEPAD is a pledge by all of Africa’s leaders to In addition, other NEPAD initiatives in areas such eradicate poverty and move towards sustainable as energy, transport, water and sanitation, growth and development. The Partnership tourism, combating desertification and coastal focuses on African ownership of the management will also benefit from the development process and seeks to develop all implementation of the Strategic Plan and other areas of human activity on the continent. The WMO Programmes. main strategies proposed include, among others, fostering conditions for long-term peace, security, In view of the above, we appeal primarily to the democracy and good governance and the Governments of Africa to give their full support promoting the provision of regional and to the objectives of the Strategy and to provide subregional public goods such as water, the required final means for its implementation. transportation, energy, environmental In addition, stakeholders of NEPAD should give management and other infrastructure, notably serious consideration to entering into partnership telecommunications. The implementation of most with the NMHSs in Africa, and with WMO, to of these strategies could be significantly affected enable the Strategy to attain its aim of by weather and climate variability and change, contributing to the objectives of NEPAD. including extreme climatic events. Without making full use of the knowledge of present and I wish to reassure you that WMO will continue to future weather, water and climate conditions in develop and support the Strategy for the the realization of the relevant sectoral initiatives, implementation and improvement of the WWW it will not be possible to achieve some or most of basic systems in Africa in order to respond to the expected outcomes of NEPAD. The successful Africa’s sustainable development requirements. implementation of the Strategic Plan in Africa will In this connection, WMO will collaborate with all address NEPAD’s concerns as outlined below. potential partners and interested institutions and organizations. In the poverty alleviation initiative, the Strategic Plan will contribute to reducing the vulnerability I wish the meeting fruitful deliberations. CHAPTER 5 THE CLIMATE AGENDA1

Statement at the opening of the WMO/ICSU/IOC conference on the World Climate Research Programme: achievements, benefits and challenges

(Geneva, Switzerland, 26 August 1997)

In recent years, much concern has arisen over the Science (ICSU) to collaborate with it in the imple- issues of climate variability and anthropogenic mentation of the Research Programme, as was the climate change and their broad implications for case with the United Nations Environment human well-being, ecosystems and sustainable Programme (UNEP) as regards the implementation socio-economic development. This Conference is of the Impact Component. In 1993, the therefore timely, as it will provide an opportunity Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission to research scientists, experts and policy makers (IOC) of the United Nations Educational, Scientific to review the achievements and benefits of the and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) joined the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) effort as a co-sponsor. 109 during its first 17 years, and to help map out a suitable course of direction aimed at meeting the Considering the theme of this Conference, one challenges which the Programme needs to might ask the following question: What have been address during the next 10 to 15 years. the major achievements and benefits of the WCRP?

As many of you present today may be aware, the Firstly, it should be recognized that the majority early knowledge about climate variability and of WCRP’s scientific activity has been conducted possible climate change was based on the data through a number of large-scale projects aimed at collected under the aegis of WMO and its prede- improving the understanding and prediction of cessor, the International Meteorological the behaviour of the complex global climate Organization (IMO). Indeed, by 1929, IMO had system and at the assessment of the extent of already set up a Commission for Climatology to human influence on climate. The projects address the issues related to climate. The concerned address the major science Commission has continued its work right up to the uncertainties with respect to, for example, the present time. Based on the work of this role of the oceans and the hydrological cycle in Commission, it was possible for WMO to issue, in climate variability. One such major successful 1976, the first authoritative statement on climate research effort was the Tropical Ocean and change. This was followed by the First World Global Atmosphere (TOGA) project, the first of Climate Conference which was also organized by these projects to be completed. TOGA brought a WMO in 1979. The World Meteorological tremendous breakthrough to climate forecasting Congress, the same year, took the decisive action through an improved understanding of the El to establish the World Climate Programme (WCP), Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, with the WCRP as its research component. In with a very high potential of producing direct 1980, WMO invited the International Council for socio-economic benefits to many nations around

1 Editor’s Note: Chapter 5 and 6 deal with various aspects of climate. Chapter 5 addresses natural climate variability, climate research, and the WMO programmes concerned with societal uses of climatic information. Special attention is given by Prof. Obasi to the understanding and predictions of ENSO events and their values in South America and Africa. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

the world, especially in tropical and subtropical review and appraise the implementation of regions. The potential includes predictions, from UNCED’s Agenda 21 and related conventions. several months to a year in advance, of patterns The General Assembly further urged governments of unusual rainfall or drought in parts of Africa, to increase their efforts to translate commitments the Americas, Asia and Australia. Seasonal climate under the various UN conventions into concrete predictions arising from this research are being action to ensure that the global climate and increasingly relied upon for early warning atmosphere are not further damaged. Thirdly, we systems and as an aid in improving agricultural can point to the achievements made through the production and water management. ENSO is also ongoing World Ocean Circulation Experiment an important factor in predictions of annual (WOCE). The massive amounts of precision data tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic. collected over all the worlds oceans are already contributing to an improved understanding of Secondly, the WCRP has influenced several major ocean systems and processes, and the ocean- global developments. One of these was the climate relationship. Similarly, the climatological convening by WMO, ICSU and UNEP of the 1985 data sets, collected through the Global Energy Villach Conference on the effects of increasing and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) and the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere on the Arctic Climate System Study (ACSYS), are making Earth’s climate. As a result, and following a call by significant contributions to climate research. It is the United Nations for the protection of the anticipated that the Climate Variability and global climate, WMO and UNEP established in Predictability (CLIVAR) study project, which is 1988 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate building on the findings of TOGA and WOCE, and Change (IPCC), which was charged with the the project on Stratospheric Processes and their responsibility of assessing the science and the Role in Climate (SPARC), will also make similar environmental and socio-economic impacts of major contributions to our understanding and climate change, along with appropriate response prediction of the global climate. strategies. Drawing heavily on the research 110 results of the WCRP, the IPCC has since issued In the process of implementing these major two major assessment reports, the first in 1990 projects, the WCRP has contributed to substantial and the second in 1995. The first report gave developments in global atmospheric models further urgency to the preparatory process, which allow for improved climate predictions. initiated by WMO and UNEP, for an The opportunities offered by these advances have intergovernmental negotiation for a Framework encouraged several WMO Member countries to Convention on Climate Change. This process establish national climate centres and/or national subsequently led to the United Nations climate services. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) which was adopted at the United Fourthly, the Programme has promoted research Nations Conference on the Environment and globally into the entire Earth’s climate system Development (UNCED) in 1992. through studies encompassing the global atmosphere, oceans—both sea and land ice—and Furthermore, it is partly the result of work carried the land surface. In this regard, the Programme has out under the World Climate Research continued to be the main international mechanism Programme on climate modelling that enabled to foster and coordinate the essential basic the IPCC, in its Second Assessment Report, to research in the climate system. It has progressed arrive at the conclusion that “...the balance of through remarkable collaborative efforts between evidence suggests that there is a discernible many scientific disciplines, as well as through human influence on climate”. This conclusion, cooperation between governmental and non- which has far-reaching implications, immediately governmental organizations and the academic attracted the attention of governments, non- community. It is therefore fair to say that such governmental organizations and the public at cross-disciplinary cooperation is unique in any large, and has thus heightened global concern comparable global endeavour. about climate change, resulting in renewed calls for stronger commitments to reduce greenhouse A second question is: What are the major gas emissions. This call was reiterated by the challenges and strategy considerations for the recent Special Session of the UN General WCRP as we move into the early part of the 21st Assembly, which was convened specifically to century? Chapter 5 — The Climate Agenda

Firstly, for the WCRP to benefit from the improved Assessment Report. In this regard, the future symbiosis among the various climate-related work of the WCRP should continue to give programmes, and to optimize available resources priority to reducing the uncertainties arising in the implementation of Agenda 21 and the from: (i) the representation of climate processes related conventions, the sponsors of the WCRP in numerical models, especially radiation balance and other partner Organizations have prepared a and parameterizations of feedbacks associated “Climate Agenda”, which is an integrating with clouds, oceans, sea ice, land surface and framework for the international climate-related vegetation; and, (ii) possible “surprises” involved programmes. An Inter-Agency Committee on the in climate change, due to the non-linearity of the Climate Agenda (IACCA) was established in April climate system and its response to rapid forcing. of this year and will coordinate its implementation. This Conference will need to consider the Advances in these areas are necessary in order to requirements for one of the Agenda’s main thrusts, adequately quantify the magnitude of climate namely, “new frontiers in climate science and variability that is attributable to human activity; to prediction”, to which the WCRP, together with improve global and particularly regional and ICSU’s International Geosphere and Biosphere subregional projections of climate change, the Programme and the International Human magnitude of sea-level rise and the impacts on Dimensions Programme, are the primary ecosystems; and to improve the assessment of the contributors. In this connection, the Conference impact of climate change on the distribution, will also need to consider how the WCRP can best frequency and intensity of extreme weather contribute to the other thrusts of the Agenda, the events, such as tropical cyclones and mid-latitude climate-related conventions such as the UN storms. In this regard, on-going studies have not Convention to Combat Desertification (CCD), and supported significant changes with respect to to WMO’s Climate Information and Prediction tropical cyclones. Yet it is worth noting that over Services (CLIPS) project. CLIPS will promote the recent years, global losses due to climate-related use of climate information and prediction services, disasters have risen at about three times the rate capacity building, research and the development of those due to earthquakes. The extent to which 111 of new applications, and will demonstrate the this could be related to anthropogenically-driven value and potential of climate services to decision climate change, or as a result of natural or other makers and other users. socio-economic factors, remains an important subject for study. Secondly, in the crucial area of climate monitoring, the Conference will need to address Information in this area is of particular issues related to the adequacy and the quality of importance to governments and the insurance the available data for advancing research. This industry. I would urge climate researchers to must take into account the major data collection coordinate their efforts in this regard with those programmes of WMO, namely, the World working on tropical cyclones and other severe Weather Watch (WWW), the Global Atmosphere storms. Watch (GAW) and the hydrological networks, as well as activities of the Global Climate Observing Fourthly, in formulating the WCRP strategy and System (GCOS), the Global Ocean Observing plans for the future, this Conference will need to System (GOOS) and the Global Terrestrial bear in mind the social and economic dimensions Observing System (GTOS) which are meant to of climate change. It is therefore of great provide a wide spectrum of data for climate importance that there be considerable emphasis system monitoring, climate change detection and on the “discernibility” of climate change. In this response monitoring, as well as for research work regard, the collaboration between the Working in improving climate models. Group on Climate Change Detection of WMO’s Commission for Climatology and those Thirdly, as the WCRP provides the major implementing the CLIVAR Project will be scientific input into the work of the IPCC in particularly important. The Conference should support of the UNFCCC, its strategy for the future therefore review the climate policy requirements must take into account the needs of the IPCC for which would assist the IPCC in demonstrating to more precise climate change projections at governments, non-governmental organizations regional and subregional levels, particularly in the and civil society the possible cost of long-term preparation of its Special Reports and its Third damage or benefits in some parts of the world Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

due to climate change and the cost effectiveness years to come. I want to assure you that WMO of investments in climate-related activities for the will continue to strengthen its support to the early decades of the next century. Programme as we now map out our strategies to meet the challenges of the early years of the 21st Fifthly, since the climate issue is a universal one, century. In the process, WMO will continue to the Conference would need to consider an strive for strengthened cooperation among its appropriate mechanism for associating a greater partners in the WCRP and will also continue to number of developing countries with the encourage governments and other funding activities of the WCRP. The present mechanism mechanisms to maintain their support at both the has not proved adequate. In addition to the international and national levels. benefits of wider research experiences, the new mechanism would lead to a more global In conclusion, I look forward to the outcome of contribution to the WCRP. this Conference which, I am convinced, will demonstrate to governments the benefits of the Despite the tremendous advances made in WCRP and, at the same time, set realistic future climate research over a number of years, the goal research directions that are aligned with the of fully understanding and predicting future immediate requirements of nations and the long- climate will still remain a challenge for some term aspirations of humanity.

The role of WMO in addressing the El Niño phenomenon

112 Lecture at the Evaluation Seminar on the Impact of the 1997–1998 El Niño Phenomenon for Directors of NMHSs in WMO Regions III and IV (Lima, Peru, 15 March 1999)

Introduction Niño, its impacts, and the role of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the The El Niño phenomenon has, in recent years, National Meteorological and Hydrological Services become widely known by the public-at-large (NMHSs) of its Member countries in dealing with around the world. “El Niño”, we know, has a long El Niño. historical base in Latin America. For many generations, the occasional extensive warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean was known by the local fish- What are El Niño, ENSO and La ermen to be associated with extreme climate Niña? anomalies and adverse socio-economic impacts in their area. Today we know that El Niño is a “El Niño” is a naturally occurring climate phenom- phenomenon with a global dimension and has enon, lasting from between three and six seasons, probably existed for thousands of years, but it is marked by the extensive warming of the surface only in the last decade that it has been properly waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific understood. Ocean. Under normal conditions, the waters are warmer in the western Pacific, associated with How is this knowledge being disseminated to the relatively lower atmospheric pressure and heavy world to enable appropriate actions to be taken? rainfall, while the pressures are higher with less The severe 1997–1998 El Niño event, for example, rainfall over the cooler waters of the central and mobilized governments, the media, social scien- eastern Pacific. Under this pressure pattern, the tists and international intergovernmental and trade winds blow from the east along the equator, non-governmental organizations to address the keeping the warm waters in the western part of many negative impacts on several countries or the Ocean. Under El Niño conditions, which occur societies around the world. This paper will give an every two to seven years, the pressure pattern overview of the scientific knowledge about El changes so that the higher pressures are over the Chapter 5 — The Climate Agenda west and the lower pressures are over the centre represents the first major breakthrough in the and east. The easterly trade winds weaken and the prediction of the longer-term climate. winds sometimes blow towards the east, so that the warmer waters and the heavy rainfall belt drift eastward. The negative or cooling phase of El Niño El Niño and global and regional is called La Niña, which occurs when the trade impacts winds strengthen and the eastern Pacific waters are cooler than normal. The see-saw in pressure By studying past El Niño (warm) and La Niña between the western and central regions of the (cold) episodes, scientists have determined the Pacific is known as the “Southern Oscillation” precipitation and temperature anomaly patterns (SO). Because El Niño is closely linked with the that are consistent with various El Niño phases. Southern Oscillation, they are collectively known Figure 5.2 depicts known global climate patterns in scientific circles as “El Niño/Southern during El Niño events. During La Niña events, the Oscillation”, or “ENSO”. patterns are generally reversed. The following are a few examples of the extreme climate events Figure 5.1 depicts the normal and El Niño condi- which are generally associated with El Niño and La tions. The warm waters always interact with the Niña in the Americas: atmosphere above, and during El Niño events, the atmospheric circulation is affected in a major way El Niño: so that weather and climate patterns over most of • Northern Brazil: Drier than normal conditions the world are also affected, particularly in the trop- during the northern hemisphere winter ics and sub-tropics. El Niño is generally associated season; with worldwide anomalies in the patterns of • West Coast of tropical South America, south- precipitation and temperature, as well as with ern Brazil to central Argentina: Wetter than patterns of tropical storms and hurricane activity, normal conditions; the behaviour of the subtropical jetstreams, and • The Gulf of Mexico and along the southeast many other general circulation features over vari- coast of the United States: Winter storms tend 113 ous parts of the world. Over the last several to be more vigorous resulting in wetter than decades, major advances have been made in normal conditions; weather forecasting, that is, up to about a week for • Tropical storm and hurricane activity: midlatitudes, but the understanding of El Niño Reduced activity occurs across the tropical

line Thermoc

Figure 5.1—Schematic of normal and El Niño conditions in the

Pacific Ocean Thermocline (Source: Bureau of Meteorology, Australia) Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

North Atlantic Ocean and an expanded area strong La Niña conditions occurred. The cold of favourable conditions occurs over the east- episode conditions have persisted into 1999, as ern North Pacific Ocean. When El Niño indicated by the Southern Oscillation time-series in conditions are strong, even tropical waves Figure 5.3. All the numerical and statistical models and rain-producing clouds are suppressed in are in general agreement that the current La Niña the Atlantic, leading to drought conditions will slowly diminish in magnitude over the next over the eastern Caribbean islands. several months, although there is some disagree- ment concerning the rate of decay of the event. La Niña: • Equatorial Central Pacific: The colder than The strong 1997–1998 El Niño and the 1998–1999 normal ocean temperatures inhibit the forma- La Niña events imposed considerable socio- tion of rain-producing clouds; economic stress and set back development in • Tropical storm and hurricane activity: many parts of the globe. Figures 5.4 and 5.5 show Reduced activity occurs across the eastern global climate anomalies during 1997 and 1998, North Pacific Ocean, but activity is enhanced although not all were related to the El Niño over the tropical North Atlantic Ocean. phenomenon. The notable global impacts include the severe droughts and forest fires of Indonesia and northeast Brazil and the catastrophic floods of The 1997–1998 El Niño episode tropical East Africa. In Latin America and the Caribbean, to varying degrees, loss of life; destruc- The 1997–1998 El Niño episode has been consid- tion of property; damage to food production, food ered as perhaps the strongest climatic event of this reserves and transportation systems; as well as century, comparable to or even surpassing the increased health risks were among the many socio- famous 1982–1983 event. This latest El Niño economic consequences resulting from such began in the first half of 1997 and ended in the events as Hurricane Mitch during La Niña. The middle of 1998. In the second half of 1998, a rapid major burden of the natural disasters was in the 114 transition from the strong El Niño to moderate to developing world. Estimates of global damage

60°N Warm Warm 40°N Warm

Warm Wet & cool 20°N Dry Wet Dry EQ Wet & warm Wet Dry & & DRY warm ° 20 S warm Dry Warm & 40°S warm Wet Warm

60°S 0° 60°E120°E 180° 120°W60°W

60°N W

40°N Wet Dry 20°N Dry & warm Dry Wet

EQ Warm DRY 20°S Warm Dry Dry & cool 40°S Wet Figure 5.2—Typical global impacts during 60°S 0° 60°E120°E 180° 120°W60°W El Niño conditions Chapter 5 — The Climate Agenda The roles of WMO

Socio-economic losses cannot be entirely eliminated, but timely and appropriate mitigation measures can certainly reduce the impact. In fact, early information on El Niño episodes allows for advanced national planning, with considerable advantages in many sectors of the economy such as water resources management, tourism, and fisheries and agricultural production (Obasi, 1996). In the case of the 1997–1998 El Niño event, advances in El Niño-related science and in monitoring the sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, Figure 5.3—Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) enabled scientists in the NMHSs to predict its 1994–1999 formation longer in advance than was the case in all the previous events. With recent developments from the 1997–1998 El Niño range from about in communication technology, including the use US$ 14 billion mainly from property damage, to of the Internet, information on the El Niño was more than US$ 33 billion when other socio- rapid and timely disseminated throughout the economic losses were assessed. This includes at world. These enabled many governments to take least US$ 4.3 billion in Central and South America. appropriate measures and stimulated international The previous major El Niño event in 1982–1983 cooperation and integrated efforts to address the caused global damage estimated at between associated impacts. US$ 8 billion and US$ 13 billion. Monitoring of the 1997–1998 El Niño 115 To monitor the current state of global weather and climate, near instantaneous exchange of weather

MAJOR GLOBAL CLIMATE ANOMALIES AND EPISODIC EVENTS IN 1997

Wet spring & Oct.-Dec. Periodic warmth much of year Cold/snow early (2-5 times normal) record spring snowmelt floods Record July flooding Periodic regional Warm/dry Wet Nov.-Dec. wetness Mar.-Sep. wildfires (July) Apr.-Oct. drought: Cold 55%-70% of normal Very dry August Cool in some precipitation Jan.-Mar. floods areas Feb.; Rain & snowmelt Apr.-May; Sep.-Oct. Numerous floods (Jan.-Feb.) Heavy tropical systems Jan. Heavy Oct.-Dec. snow Near-record mid-Aug. heat Summer summer & autumn; precipitation (Oct.) drought unseasonably wet Wet spring: floods, Oct.-Dec. Spotty floods/hail (July-Aug.) severe weather Remnants of Nora (Sept.) Excessive Danny (July) Oct.-Nov. rains Strong hurricane: Aug.: no named (10-60 times normal) Paka hits Guam (Dec.) area’s strongest on record, tropical storms possible world-record Dry end to Wet May.-Sept. Linda (Sept.) stays over water in Atlantic basin wind gust (380 km/h) wet season & Nov.-Dec.; Pauline (1st time since 1961) Rare snow/sleet (Dec.): devastates cool May-June Dry Oct.-Dec. first snow in 100 years Acapulco, Wet Oct.-Dec. rain in Guadalajara, Mexico surpluses 200-600 mm Mexico (Oct.) Frequent Intense rains Very strong El Niño develops, Severe flooding & several tropical early Oct.-Dec.; near or exceeding 1982-83 record- warmth Wet Jan.-Feb. systems water up to 5°C above normal Excessive 725-1240 mm Jan.-Mar.; Dec. above-normal rainfall Nov.-Dec. Dry Mar.-Apr. rains & all flooding Warm & dry Severe drought & last half of year year wildfires May-Oct.; regional May-Dec. Storms & Heavy rain/tropical systems/ deficits 400-1600 mm; flooding (June) spotty flooding Jan.-Apr.; increased rainfall Nov.-Dec. slow start to 1997-98 wet season Dry Jan.; Apr.-June; Nov.-Dec.; Wet early; wet Feb.-Mar.; dry Mar.-May; warm Oct. & Dec. very wet Oct.-Dec. (200-800 mm surplus)

Source: Climate Prediction Center, NOAA, USA

Figure 5.4—Major global climate anomalies and episodic events in 1997 Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

MAJOR GLOBAL CLIMATE ANOMALIES AND EPISODIC EVENTS IN 1998

May-Aug. floods: Mild Jan.-Mar. May-Jun. up to 2 168mm rain heat wave Wetness/flooding surpluses to 772mm temp. to 48°C Hot & dry Frequent Jun.-Aug. Sep.-Nov. warmth Cold Nov.-Dec. Jun.-Aug. Wet/severe weather throughout heat waves year Severe Jan. Warm & dry/ Apr.-Jun. wildfires Stormy ice storm Jul.-Oct. Wet/cool Nov.-Dec. Very dry Dry Jul.-Oct. up to Jan.-May & Dec. Jun.-Dec. Oct.-Dec. Flooding 2 870mm rain; Periodic warmth Crop losses Dry Bonnie (Aug.) up Apr.-May surpluses to 915mm throughout year Very Jul.-Aug. Jan.-Jun. Jul.-Sep. to 250mm rain Severe flooding Brief but severe drought hot Unseasonably wet Jan.-Mar. Jun. 50% of Aug. flooding Death Valley, CA. Dry July May fires Abundant tropical normal rain Warm & dry Extreme Wet Jan.-Jun. approaches 54°C Warm Oct.-Nov. fires rains Jul.-Nov. Jan.-Mar. Oct.-Dec. Jul.-Aug. warmest in North America Zeb (Oct.) Georges (late Sep.) much flooding for 36 years (Jul.) Mitch Wetness/flooding O3B (Jun.) Babs (Oct.) severe damage to of the Charley (Aug.) (late Oct.) northern Caribbean; Jul.-Sep. Dry Jun.-Jul. wind damage, Wet up to 450mm rain heavy rain, year Wet/numerous ends drought up to 685mm rain central USA Gulf Coast Sep.-Oct. & flooding tropical systems Hot & dry Mar.-Jul. Dry Wet Sep.-Dec. Powerful El Niño Oct.-Dec. (Up to US$ 8 billion gives way to Jan.-Apr. drought damage moderate La Niña in southern USA) Wet Nov.-Dec. Sep. 97-May 98 11 to 49 times normal rainfall Dry Feb.-May Very warm & wet Warm & dry/ Wet Jan.-May wildfires Jun.-Dec. Stormy Severely Dry Jan.-May; Jan.-Apr. Oct.-Dec. Wetness/flooding Indonesian fires Jan.-May Largest Sep.97-May 98 Dry Sep.-Dec. Rainfall deficits: Philippines: 2 472mm Highest global annual average surface Indonesia: 1 613mm temperature on record Malaysia: 1 430mm

Source: Climate Prediction Center, NOAA, USA

Figure 5.5—Major global climate anomalies and episodic events in 1998

information is carried out across the entire globe Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA), by the NMHSs through the World Weather Watch among other programmes, to enhance observation 116 (WWW) of WMO. The WWW combines land- networks over other oceans around the world. based, ocean- and space-based observing systems, Recent studies have confirmed that Atlantic Ocean telecommunication facilities and data-processing sea-surface temperature anomalies are also impor- centres — operated by the NMHSs — to make tant in determining regional climate variability. available meteorological and related geophysical data and information that are needed to support efficient services to all climate-sensitive sectors of El Niño research all countries. The main international scientific programme The strengthening of the monitoring of the atmos- fostering and coordinating the essential basic phere and the oceans have contributed enormously research in the climate system is the World to recent gains in the understanding and prediction Climate Research Programme (WCRP) (see previ- of the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon. This includes ous address). an enhanced network of moored and drifting meteorological and oceanographic data buoys called the Pacific Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean (TAO) array, The WMO CLIPS project tide gauges, ships and improved satellite monitoring systems, as shown in Figure 5.6. The enhanced WMO believes that the progress being made in observational networks allow for the monitoring of climate research, where appropriate, should be the day-to-day evolution of El Niño/La Niña-related translated into forms that will elevate the socio- sea surface anomalies, as was the case during the economic well-being of humanity. To carry out 1997–1998 events, as shown in Figure 5.7; but they this activity, WMO established the Climate also provide an increased set of data which have Information and Predictions Services (CLIPS) been crucial in our understanding and prediction of project. This has come at a time when there is a the El Niño phenomenon. growing public awareness of possible human-influenced changes in climate, and the impact on Efforts are being made through the Global Climate society of variations in climate, such as those Observing System (GCOS), the Global Ocean caused by the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. CLIPS Observing System (GOOS) and the Pilot Research is therefore intended to: Chapter 5 — The Climate Agenda

Figure 5.6—ENSO observing system (Source: NOAA)

• Demonstrate the value and eventual socio- as to the public through the WMO El Niño Web economic benefits of climate information and page. Regular El Niño briefings were also provided prediction services; by WMO to the UN Agencies in Geneva, which • Provide an international framework to have field programmes that are impacted by the enhance and promote climate information effects of natural disasters. 117 and prediction; • Encourage the development of operational climate prediction; and, Climate outlook fora • Facilitate the development and the strengthening of a global network of regional and Many NMHSs and other institutions undertake El national climate centres. Niño-related research, and several of them produce climate predictions. WMO has been coor- One of the immediate tasks of the CLIPS project dinating, or has organized, research liaison has been to assist in developing the capability of between the various groups through the co-spon- NMHSs to receive and utilize the global climate sorship of workshops, seminars and conferences, information and prediction products which are and the organization of special training events on currently being produced by several major climate El Niño. In 1997 and 1998, in collaboration with centres around the world. To this end, WMO has partner institutions, WMO organized several organized regular CLIPS-related regional training Regional Climate Outlook Fora (RCOF) in many courses and workshops and has undertaken parts of the world. missions to several countries, such as Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay and Brazil, to assist in their The fora, which were held in the Americas, have development plans for climate services. This activ- enabled researchers from various advanced ity has been particularly important for the NMHSs climate prediction centres and regional opera- in dealing with information on the 1997–1998 El tional climate centres, as well as experts from Niño event. In order to assist them in this regard, some NMHSs, to develop consensus or consoli- an El Niño Steering Committee was established dated climate outlook guidance products, within the WMO Secretariat in October 1997, with together with guidance on their interpretation, the CLIPS project office coordinating its various for dissemination to users. The output from the activities. A series of information leaflets on El Pacific-South America Climate Outlook Forum, Niño/La Niña have been issued by WMO (eight held in Lima in October 1997, is depicted in updates thus far since 1997) and disseminated to Figure 5.7. The RCOF proved to be a very effec- the NMHSs and international news media as well tive capacity-building mechanism for the NMHSs, Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

produced by various climate centres which use different techniques and spatial and temporal scales that sometimes pose difficulties during intercomparison. WMO and partners have begun to address the verification of the climate prediction products that are currently being generated by these centres. These are being addressed through WMO special working groups and Technical Commissions, as well as during some regional climate outlook fora.

Success in regional use of El Niño information Climate information and prediction services are frequently aimed at alleviating or mitigating negative impacts of extreme climate conditions or anomalies, and also at taking advantage of any positive impacts. For a number of years, El Niño predictions have been used by several countries in the region and elsewhere to provide early warnings and disaster preparedness. The following Figure 5.7—Consensus Climate Guidance cases are just a few examples: (Source: Pacific-South America Climate Outlook Forum, 1997) 118 The case of Peru in terms of the transfer of knowledge of the current state of development and limitations of Figure 3.14 indicates how El Niño information has seasonal climate prediction science. The fora been used for sustainable agricultural production were therefore used to enhance the regional and in Peru through the alternation of crops during dry national climate outlooks and associated impact years; for example, alternation between rice and projections during the 1997–1998 El Niño event. cotton.

Verification of prediction products The case of Brazil

The climate prediction products on El Niño are Figure 5.8 highlights two El Niño cases of 1987 still experimental in many ways. They are and 1992, respectively, where the rainfall deficits

Applications of experimental climate forecasts in NE Brazil

Precipitation Grain production

180

160 1100000 140 120 100

80 550000 Figure 5.8— 60 Applications of Percentage of the mean Percentage 40 experimental climate 20 forecasts in north-east Grain production in (1000's of tons) Grain

0 0 Brazil 1987 No action 1992 Full action 1993 Full action 1994 Full action (Source: NOAA) Chapter 5 — The Climate Agenda were almost the same. Enhanced agricultural production is reflected when El Niño information was used in making specific agriculture decisions in 1992 compared to 1987.

The case of Colombia: El Niño and the malaria epidemic Too much or too little rainfall, which are common in some regions during the warm and cold El Niño phases, have been associated with various vector- borne and food-related diseases. Similar observations have been made in other parts of the region and many parts of the tropics. Figure 5.9 shows the linkages between El Niño and Malaria Figure 5.9—Malaria in Colombia cases in Colombia. (Source: Graham and Poveda)

“International Seminar on the 1997–1998 El Niño International actions Event: Evaluation and Projections,” which was hosted by the Government of Ecuador in In addition to the role played by WMO within the Guayaquil from 9 to13 November 1998. This was meteorological and hydrological communities, the the first international platform for a comprehen- organization has been involved in several other sive scientific and technical retrospective of the El international efforts in connection with the Niño phenomenon, and gave a perspective on the 1997–1998 El Niño event. WMO provided routine broad extent and diversity of impacts of the event. information on El Niño to assist many UN agencies 119 and non-governmental organizations in dealing The “Guayaquil Declaration” calls for urgent with health, food and other humanitarian conse- actions to strengthen many intergovernmental quences in the most affected countries. Because of programmes to achieve the objectives of UNGA the significant international concern about the Resolutions 52/200 and 53/185. The high priority negative impacts of this strong El Niño, the United actions called for in the Declaration are in line Nations General Assembly, in December 1997, with WMO’s own priorities, which include: adopted Resolution 52/200 to address the negative impacts of the El Niño phenomenon. This UN • Capacity-building efforts for the development Resolution was recently extended through a new and implementation of new climate early- Resolution 53/185 to also encompass the impacts warning systems at the regional and national of La Niña. levels, and the strengthening of existing systems; The Resolutions called for UN-wide integrated • The development of regional networks and efforts to respond to the real or perceived threat implementation of proven operational posed by the strong 1997–1998 El Niño and systems to improve monitoring of the climate 1998–1999 La Niña, together with the future system; recurrences of such events. A UN Inter-agency • Expansion of ongoing research related to Task Force on the 1997–1998 El Niño was also climate variability on seasonal to interannual established under the auspices of the Secretariat time scales to improve climate predictability; for the International Decade for Natural Disaster • Ensuring that the information needs of Reduction (INDNR). WMO was designated as the national sectors vulnerable to climate variabil- lead agency on issues dealing with the science and ity are met; and, technology of understanding, observing, and • An inter-disciplinary approach in order to predicting El Niño, as well as its related meteoro- diminish the impact of future extreme climate logical and hydrological impacts. The IDNDR events on societies. Secretariat, the Permanent Commission for the South Pacific (CPPS), WMO and other UN bodies and partners, jointly organized the first Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

Conclusions There is no doubt that the lessons learned from assessments of the impact of this episode, the This paper gives a brief overview of the role of enhanced monitoring and related research, the the World Meteorological Organization in new awareness among decision makers, the meeting the requirements of its Member media, the public and the international countries concerning El Niño in general and the community, all augur well for dealing with future 1997–1998 event in particular. It is clear that, events. while this El Niño was perhaps the strongest in this century, it is the understanding and predictability of El Niño events that was responsible for the much longer lead-time given Note: An El Niño Centre (CIIFEN) was for warnings than was previously possible, thus subsequently established in Guayaquil through leading to improved responses in all sectors. the efforts of Ecuador and the WMO.

Address at the opening of the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum for 1998 and the implications for regional food security

(Nairobi, Kenya, 9 February 1998)

120 In addressing food security issues, it is to be have received rainfall amounts over five to ten realized that any meaningful action plan should times greater than normal. Such excessive rainfall not only focus on the socio-economic factors that and the associated floods, landslides, etc., have contribute to food insecurity, but also on the caused havoc over many parts of this region, important linkage with weather, climate and including major loss of life and property. Mass water, and, in particular, with extreme weather migration of livestock and people, the spread of events such as droughts and floods. The World water-borne diseases such as malaria and cholera, Meteorological Organization (WMO) stressed this and the destruction of crops, bridges, roads and during the 1996 World Food Summit in Rome, many other basic infrastructure have been the which took these factors into account in drawing result. Here in Kenya, for example, torrential rain up its Action Plan aimed at reducing the number over a period of more than three months has seri- of undernourished people in the world to half ously affected major roadways which form crucial their present level by the year 2015. In this links within the country and between neighbour- context, the extreme climate variability of eastern ing countries for the movement of goods and Africa and surrounding areas has to be taken into foodstuff. Much of last year’s main wheat and account in any strategy on food security for this maize harvest has rotted in the fields because of region. The incidents of droughts and floods impassable roads, and a major shortfall is being cause wide fluctuations in the level of food and predicted in crop production in 1998. animal production. Loss of animals and crops can result from, among other things, too much water, The extreme climate events which have been too little water, or related incidents of locust observed over parts of the region during infestations. 1997/1998 have been linked to the El Niño phenomenon, the periodic warming of eastern We recall that there have been several severe and central Pacific Ocean which has been associ- droughts which affected the region this century, ated with adverse climate impacts worldwide. interspersed with years when the rainfall has been Records from the major climate centers around well above normal. Since October 1997, parts of the world show that the current El Niño has been eastern Africa, including Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, the strongest in this century and its predicted Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda, persistence over the next few months could be Chapter 5 — The Climate Agenda expected to have major impacts on the normal information related to climate predictions, dates rainy season in eastern African and surrounding back to the early eighties. At that time, WMO areas and thus on food security for the region. It is assisted the countries in the region in establishing exactly the prospect of this type of prediction of two Drought Monitoring Centres (DMCs) — one climate variations, on time scales of a season up to here in Nairobi and the other in Harare — with a year, that the understanding of El Niño phenome- funds provided by UNDP. These Centres serve as non offers for affected areas in the tropics and the climate diagnostic centres from whence subtropics. The understanding of the El Niño information and advice related to drought and phenomenon is a result of the decade-long other weather patterns are made readily available Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) exper- to the countries they serve in near real-time. The iment undertaken by WMO and partners under the early warnings of the extremes in climate, such as World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) from drought and floods, which the Centres provide, 1985 to 1994. It represents the first major break- contribute to the alleviation of the negative through in climate prediction and is an impact on agricultural production and natural achievement of the greatest importance for the resources through the improved use of climate science research community, with major meteorological and hydrological data and national socio-economic benefits. In order to bring products. For example, the Nairobi DMC provided the application of climate research results and early predictions and warnings of the 1991/1992 related information, such as El Niño, to relevant drought, as well as warnings of this current sectors of national economies, and in particular to episode of above normal rainfall and flooding in food production planning, WMO established the eastern and surrounding areas in Africa due to El Climate Information and Prediction Services Niño. This information helps in the drive for food (CLIPS) project. CLIPS is designed to stimulate the security, adequate water availability and use of climate information and prediction services, combating environmental degradation. promote capacity building, support interdisciplinary and user-oriented research, facilitate the WMO continues to provide support to the DMCs development of new applications, and demon- and is working closely with the Inter- 121 strate the value and potential of climate services to Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) decision makers and other users. This includes and its Committee of Directors of NMHSs in prediction services of the near-future climate and formulating and implementing relevant its implication for food security. meteorological and hydrological projects. This includes pursuing the implementation of the next In this regard, WMO has been providing regular phase of the DMC Nairobi, as well as the updates and future projections of the El Niño development of the Hydrological Cycle Observing phenomenon to the National Meteorological and System (HYCOS) for the IGAD subregion, Hydrological Services (NMHSs), government comprising Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, agencies, United Nations organizations, the Somalia, Sudan and Uganda. The IGAD-HYCOS media, and other users of El Niño information. project is a component of the larger World For example, WMO and the scientific community Hydrological Cycle Observing System (WHYCOS) identified the onset of the current El Niño around which is being developed to improve national the middle of last year and issued appropriate and regional freshwater resources assessment and warnings through the NMHSs and the media. management capabilities—important elements in Such information has been successfully used to the quest for food security. mitigate or alleviate the current El Niño-related disasters in many parts of the world. In particular, It is therefore natural for the DMC in Nairobi to UN bodies such as the World Food Programme play a leading role in organizing this Climate (WFP) use such El Niño predictions in their plans Outlook Forum, in conjunction with WMO to alleviate the food crisis caused by the current through CLIPS and the other sponsors. The floods in this region and droughts in Forum will focus on the use of climate variability neighbouring parts of Africa. predictions to improve decision-making and management in respect of food security in this It is to be recalled that WMO’s concern to address part of Africa, and in particular, will develop a the impact of the recurrent and persistent consensus climate forecast for the March to May droughts in eastern and southern Africa, through 1998 period in this subregion. The Forum will drought monitoring and the use of the latest combine the expertise of the Nairobi DMC and Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

the NMHSs of this subregion with experts from Monitoring Centre here in Nairobi in providing a various climate prediction operational centres, focus for the region to benefit from the advances government institutions and universities, and in climate science. However, we should note that research institutes around the world, in a the activities of the Centre are being undertaken cooperative effort to develop the consensus under difficult financial constraints. It is clear that climate forecast. It will also benefit a similar the Centre and other regional initiatives need to Climate Outlook Forum which was held in be strengthened and supported. This includes the Zimbabwe in September, and a review Forum need for adequate computer facilities, further held in Namibia in December 1997. In addition to specialized training for its staff, and an improved the consensus climate outlook, the Forum will climate observational network, all of which consider, among other things: would enable the Centre and the NMHSs to provide authoritative information to policy • Capacity building in seasonal rainfall makers as a contribution to the IGAD food forecasting; security strategy. I would therefore appeal to the • The potential impact of the consensus donor community to increase their support to the forecast on regional and national food activities of the DMC and other initiatives which security; would contribute to this end. • Food security action plans and detailed monitoring plans for 1998 among Finally, I would like to assure the Forum that governments, donors and non-governmental WMO will continue to give a high priority to organizations; assisting the Centre and the countries of eastern • A strategy for quick dissemination of climate Africa and surrounding areas in their efforts to products and services. further contribute to national and regional efforts for achieving food security. WMO will also The production of a consensus forecast for continue to work with its partners in the eastern Africa and the surrounding area is a international community to assist in this 122 further confirmation of the role of the Drought important endeavour.

Statement on the occasion of the opening of the Third CRIA Symposium on Climate and Applications

(Evora, Portugal, 15 May 2002)

It is indeed a pleasure for me to address this applications. I wish to assure you that WMO will important gathering on the occasion of the continue to cooperate with the Secretariat of opening of the Third Symposium on Climate and CRIA in meeting its objectives and the terms of Applications organized by the Agency for the the Memorandum of Understanding between Portuguese-speaking Countries on the topic of WMO and CRIA. Climate and Related Environmental Issues (CRIA). I also wish to express the gratitude of the World This Symposium is being organized as a follow-up Meteorological Organization (WMO) to Mr to the one held last year in Brazil, which adopted Quintas Ribeiro, the President of the Institute of the “Maceio Declaration”. The theme chosen is Meteorology and to his staff, and to those of the timely and appropriate. The issues related to CRIA Secretariat for the excellent arrangements climate have in the last decade risen high on the made to ensure the success of this Symposium. world political agenda and have attracted the attention of world leaders, principally due to I am pleased that the CRIA countries are emission and accumulation of greenhouse gases concentrating their efforts on the advancement of in the atmosphere and the related global meteorology, and in particular on climate and its warming. Chapter 5 — The Climate Agenda

From the time humans first tilled the Earth, they from the application of climate information. quickly became conscious of the control that Indeed, climate determines the type of cash or weather and climate have on their welfare. We are food crops that can be grown in a particular area. aware today that climate and its variability deter- Forecast of climate variability such as occurrences mine the nature of human clothing, housing, of El Niño or La Niña will determine the type of energy needs, plants and cultivated crops, agricul- crop to be planted. This is the case in northeast tural practices, and the economic exploitation of Brazil, which is subjected to drought in El Niño resources of the natural ecosystems. Climate also years, when action is taken to use drought influences the vectors that carry certain diseases resistant grains. In Peru, El Niño years are and plays a significant role in human health. associated with high rainfall, and rice is planted in those years; otherwise cotton is planted. In The predecessor of WMO, namely the Colombia, greater epidemics of malaria are International Meteorological Organization (IMO), associated with El Niño years. In Viet Nam, it is had established, by 1929, the Commission for estimated that food production can be increased Climatology, to address issues related to climate, by half to one per cent annually by making climate variations and climate change. That proper use of weather and climate information. Commission is still retained today. When WMO established its World Climate Programme in 1979, Where water for irrigation is available, climate it spelt out its component parts comprising determines the quantity of water to be used and Climate Data, Climate Applications, Climate when to irrigate. In Guatemala, abundant bean Impact and Climate Research. WMO decided to crops were harvested using less irrigation water. assume the leadership role for Climate Data and Also, two crops were grown in a year instead of Climate Applications and invited the United the traditional one crop. Furthermore, it has been Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to demonstrated that with the judicious application assume the leadership role for Climate Impact. of climate information, in support of agronomic WMO invited the International Council for practices, it is possible to increase crop yield Science (ICSU) to co-sponsor the Climate productivity. Up to 30 per cent has been the 123 Research component. Today, the case in pilot studies in Mali and Burkina Faso. In Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission order to optimize such benefits, WMO has co- (IOC) of the United Nations Education, Scientific sponsored, with SysTem for Analysis, Research and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) has joined and Training (START) and ICSU, the project on hands with WMO and ICSU to implement the Climate Prediction and Agriculture (CLIMAG). Its Climate Research component. aim is to utilize the ability to predict climate variability on a scale of months to a year, to Climate is a resource that needs to be tapped for improve management and decision-making in social and economic development. The same is crop production. valid for climate variations and climate change. Every nation should have a mastery of its own As of today, nearly two billion people do not have climate. This can only be achieved through the access to electricity; and in the developing world, establishment of an adequate network of only about 30 per cent of the population has grid- meteorological and climate stations. The data based electrical supply. With the fast depletion of acquired through this network over a long period conventional sources of energy (mainly fossil fuel) of time enable the definition, through analyses and the impact of greenhouse gases on climate, and research, of the totality of the climate of that the need for the development of renewable energy particular country. As the National Meteorological systems has become crucial. It is also in this area Services (NMSs) of the CRIA countries vary in that climate information application holds the development, capacities and capabilities, my greatest promise, especially in the developing address will be limited to what NMSs can usefully countries. Though renewable energy resources do with their climate data in support of their such as hydropower, solar and wind energy are respective national socio-economic sectors, distributed all over the globe, the identification of particularly in agriculture, energy, water the location, the design of appropriate systems, resources and mitigation of natural disasters. and the choice of appropriate technologies require the analyses and study of past climatological data Since most of the CRIA countries are developing, in order to optimize the use of the systems and to agriculture should be the first sector to benefit make them cost-effective. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

Hydropower accounts for nearly 24 per cent of The availability of adequate water resources with the world’s electricity and is used by more than increasing demands from agriculture, industry one billion people. Sites for hydropower and domestic use will be a major challenge for generation are generally located after a very the countries of the world in the coming few careful study of historical rainfall data in a decades. There is the need for NMSs to analyse catchment. The development of viable their rainfall climatological data and ascertain the hydropower requires the analysis of the monthly variabilities inherent in the datasets. Where the and seasonal distribution of rainfall in the specific networks are not representative, efforts should be river basin. The study of extreme rainfall made to effect improvements. It is through such distribution is also essential in the design of data that assessments can be made of fresh water reservoirs for the generation of hydropower. For availability in quantity and quality. Such example, regions with high rainfall variabilities or assessments are also vital for long-term projects showing decreasing long-term trends in rainfall such as the viability of dams. Collaboration with may not be suitable for such purposes. the National Hydrological Services (NHSs), where they exist, will be found useful. Such analyses Wind power sites can be set up after a thorough will enable the strategic utilization of available analysis of the wind- energy potential of an area. freshwater resources and permit the The energy derived from wind farms depends on identification of return periods of extreme events the strength and constancy of winds. Locations of such as floods or droughts. wind- energy-providing systems in zones of weak and variable winds is generally not viable. By the The mitigation of weather- and climate-related end of 1998, more than 10 000 MW of electricity- natural disasters such as droughts, floods, forest generating wind turbines were in operation in and bush fires, and landslides are essential for more that 50 countries. The wind energy socio-economic development (see Chapter 9). potential is estimated at 53 000 TW hr/year, that is about four times higher that the world’s entire As we look to the future, the challenges to socio- 124 electricity consumption in 1998. The cost of economic development will be compounded by producing wind energy has been reduced by the potential impact of climate change (see 80 per cent since 1980, and is now about Chapter 6). US$ 4–5 per 100 kilowatts/hour. It is expected to be about US$ 2.5–3 by the year 2010. A number of developments over the last few decades in the field of science and technology Solar energy is available everywhere on the globe provide new opportunities for improved but its viability and economic potential depend knowledge of the climate system and its upon climatological factors such as the duration applications to socio-economic development. of sunshine and its intra-seasonal and interannual These include advances in observing and variability, and the technologies used. Locations monitoring systems, telecommunications and which have frequent overcast or cloudy days as computer hardware and software. The availability revealed by the analysis of climatological data are of increasingly powerful computers enables the generally not suitable. In the use of solar energy, production of sophisticated numerical weather the market for photovoltaics are expanding at a prediction (NWP) outputs for short-range rate of 30 per cent per year. The total world weather forecasts and increased accuracy within market in 1999 was 201.5 MW, the equivalent of the medium range. Enhanced research is required one large gas turbine. The cost is still high, but to enable the NMSs to reap maximum benefits there is a growing interest and use of this from NWP products that still have a limited technology in the developing countries. prediction range of less than five days in tropical regions. In addition, over the last decade a new Another source of energy that is dependent on era has emerged for seasonal and climate climatological data application is bioenergy. prediction. Coupled global climate models can Research in its development holds promise as the now be used to provide climate outlooks at multi- base material, namely biofuel, now includes seasonal to interannual timescales, especially several new products from corn stalks to rice hulls using El Niño-related sea-surface temperature to fast growing grasses. If the yield of these biofu- information and the predicted evolutions. Proper els can be enhanced by using concepts of plant understanding of the processes that control the biotechnology, then the future looks promising. local, regional and global climate systems is Chapter 5 — The Climate Agenda required in order to improve the lead-time for climate database management system, climate seasonal prediction and early detection of computing (CLICOM), and provide support for its extreme climate variability and climate change. users. It will also assist in climate data rescue and archiving. The monitoring and prediction of droughts and floods, and the issuance of warnings, require data Second, there is a need for enhanced capacity and collaboration with adjoining countries. The building of the NMSs in general and, in particular, operational costs of such activities are high. In in the application of climate data to socio- view of these considerations, and in order for economic development. The NMSs of CRIA countries to develop cost-effective approaches, it countries should take advantage of the training is imperative to develop regional capabilities. programmes of the WMO Regional Meteorological Centres (RMCs) as well as For this reason WMO, in collaboration with the cooperative efforts among them and with other National Meteorological and Hydrological partner Services. WMO will continue to give high Services (NMHSs), has continued to promote priority to its Climate Information and Prediction meteorological and/or hydrological programmes Services (CLIPS) project, aimed at promoting the within economic communities such as the development of new methods, techniques and Economic Community of West African States products and in providing training of users. (ECOWAS), the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the European Union (EU) Third, there is a need for increased research to and the Southern Cone Common Market improve the understanding of climate processes (MERCOSUR). In addition WMO, in collaboration in order to develop and improve upon the with regional and subregional institutions and capabilities for seasonal climate prediction, and development partners, is assisting in the climate application and services. operation of a number of regional centres. These include the African Centre of Meteorological Fourth, there is a need to develop a strategy for Applications for Development (ACMAD) and the disaster preparedness through vulnerability 125 Regional Training Centre for Agrometeorology assessment, environmental protection and the and Operational Hydrology and their Applications integrated management of natural resources, (AGRHYMET), both located in Niamey, Niger. especially in arid and semi-arid lands and coastal WMO also collaborates with the European Centre zones. This should contribute, among other for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) things, to the successful implementation of the and the Centre for Weather Prediction and relevant components of the conventions on Climate Studies in INPE, in Brazil. These Centres climate change, desertification and biodiversity. contribute to the promotion of training and research and the transfer of appropriate Finally, the strengthening of the NMHSs in technologies. In addition, WMO has established climate research and applications should be regional and subregional offices which respond to accompanied by closer linkages with universities the specific needs of NMHSs in climate-related and other relevant institutions to optimize activities. available human resources and facilities. This will help to ensure the contributions of climate In developing its cooperative implementation information to such areas as agriculture, water plans, I would like to invite the Symposium to resources management, energy, coastal zone consider the following specific proposals related management, siting of industrial zones, to the advancement of climate studies and their environment protection and pollution control, applications that would contribute to the and thus to sustainable development. sustainable development of the CRIA countries: I look forward to the many important conclusions First, the availability of adequate high-quality and recommendations that will come from this climatological data is required. In many countries Symposium and wish to assure you of WMO’s there is a need to improve the climatological continued cooperation and support in the network and the telecommunication and development of the NMHSs in addressing the computer facilities for accessing relevant data and challenges related to climate and its applications products available from advanced centres. WMO to sustainable development in the new will continue to ensure the development of the millennium. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

Keynote address at the opening of the Second International Symposium on Physico-mathematical Problems Related to Climate Modelling and Prediction

(Shanghai, China, 22 September 2002)

It gives me great pleasure to join you today at the some countries, extreme cold or heat waves opening of the Second International Symposium occasionally account for a greater number of on Physico-Mathematical Problems Related to deaths in a year than other weather phenomena. Climate Modelling and Prediction. On behalf of We expect and depend on factors such as the the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) right seasonal changes in temperature and rainfall and on my own, I would like to congratulate for sustaining the biosphere, including plants and Professor Lu for organizing this Symposium animals. We know that climate in general also which addresses some of the major challenges in plays an important role in our culture, habitat and climate modelling and prediction. Such symposia health. There is no doubt that the ability to are essential for focusing research efforts on the predict climate on lead times of months to outstanding problems in these areas. I believe that seasons and longer will contribute to increased such efforts will make significant contributions to socio-economic well-being of humanity and to the Fourth Assessment Report of the sustainable development. 126 WMO/United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate However, on seasonal timescales, detailed Change (IPCC) and to addressing policy issues forecasts of weather events or sequences of related to climate change, especially in the weather patterns are not possible. The chaotic context of the United Nations Framework nature of the atmosphere sets a fundamental limit Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). I of the order of two weeks for such deterministic would therefore like to extend my appreciation predictions, associated with the rapid growth of to the other sponsors for making this event initial condition errors arising from imperfect and possible. incomplete observations. Predictability of temperature and precipitation anomalies at longer The Earth’s climate is one of humankind’s lead times, out to a few seasons, comes about greatest natural resources. The very existence of because of interactions between the atmosphere, humans on Earth depends fundamentally on a the oceans and the land surface. These become benign climate. We depend on the right climate important at seasonal timescales. to produce the crops that feed us and on the right amount of rainfall at the right times to provide the In recent years, remarkable progress has taken water resources that are fundamental to our very place in climate modelling. This has been brought existence. Too little rainfall — or the failure of about in part by a major increase in computing expected seasonal rains — can lead to devastating power making more elaborate calculations droughts, crop failure and famine. Too much possible, and through improvements in rainfall in too short a time, or even over a season, understanding the key physical processes in the can result in catastrophic flooding causing loss of climate system. The progress is also very much human life, as well as destruction of the due to comprehensive global in situ and space- infrastructure which we take for granted in our based observations which have made it possible daily lives. to systematically monitor the Earth’s atmosphere and its interaction with the land surface and the We are also familiar with the damaging effects of oceans. In this context, China’s space programme tropical cyclones, floods and droughts, and makes a significant contribution to this global extreme cold spells or heat waves. In fact, in effort. By methodically comparing the model Chapter 5 — The Climate Agenda calculations with global observations over many models. Also important is the interaction with the years, increased understanding has been gained stratosphere. of the global climate system and the potential to simulate and predict climate. A particularly Thirdly, there have been significant successful application of climate modelling has improvements in modelling ocean processes and, been the prediction of the El Niño phenomenon in particular, the interaction between the in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean the atmosphere and the upper ocean, leading to a atmospheric response to El Niño and to other reduction in the requirement for flux adjustments persistent temperature anomalies in the ocean. in coupled models. These have contributed to Coupled ocean models developed under the better simulations of climate features such as the auspices of the WMO-sponsored Tropical Ocean El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Global Atmosphere (TOGA) project of the World North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). However, major Climate Research Programme (WCRP) have made deficiencies in ocean models remain. Boundary it possible to take the first steps towards ocean current simulations are poor; the role of operational climate forecasting. subgrid scale processes such as mesoscale eddies is not well understood, and there is still much Despite such progress, many challenges remain. I debate about how to represent important will mention the major ones. processes such as convection and mixing.

Firstly, most coupled models, and to a lesser Fourthly, land-surface processes and the extent uncoupled models, exhibit some serious interaction with the cryosphere are two more systematic errors that inevitably reduce forecast areas where progress is being made, but skill. Data availability is a limitation for both significant problems remain for climate statistical and dynamical models. In the latter modellers. In this regard, the treatments of soil case, very limited information is available for moisture, runoff, land-use change, snow and ice much of the global oceans and for land-surface are topics which are being seriously investigated conditions. Also, current initialization methods do through research. 127 not account properly for systematic model errors, further limiting forecast performance. A final set Fifthly, in addition to the problems faced by of limitations arises for practical reasons. Due to global modellers, the requirement for regional- resource requirements, most seasonal predictions scale climate models and forecasts presents a new cannot be done at resolutions that are set of challenges. Regional climate information is comparable to those for weather prediction. generated in one of three ways: from high- Furthermore, small ensemble sizes, of the order resolution atmosphere general circulation of 10, are used for some models, which are models, from regional or nested limited area certainly less than optimal for generating robust climate models, and from empirical/statistical and probabilistic forecasts. statistical/dynamical methods. Each technique exhibits different strengths and weaknesses. Secondly, although considerable advances have Research is underway to address the best ways to been made in the understanding of processes and generate regional products. feedbacks in the climate system, certain areas still severely hamper our ability to improve climate Finally, improved estimates of the uncertainty modelling and forecasts. Probably the greatest associated with seasonal to interannual climate uncertainty arises from clouds and their forecasts are essential to allowing better use of interactions with radiation. Cloud feedbacks forecast products. Possible use of seasonal depend upon changes in cloud height, amount forecasts is currently being explored in various and radiative properties, which in turn depend on contexts. In each case, effective use will require cloud thickness, particle size, shape and careful attention to the issue of uncertainty distribution, and on aerosol effects. The evolution inherent in seasonal forecasts. of clouds depends on a host of processes, mainly those governing the distribution of water vapour. The enormous potential benefits of being able to Despite improvements of cloud actually predict climate anomalies on various parameterizations, the nature of cloud feedback is timescales in different parts of the world have still little understood. Another key issue is the been stressed on many occasions. Such treatment of water vapour and precipitation in predictions include how hot and dry or how cool Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

and wet the summer may be, and whether the and water resources, and to make use of seasonal next five years will be dry compared to the last forecasts in water management, agriculture and five. There is also considerable value to society of disaster mitigation, WMO implemented the precise information on long-term trends in mean Climate Information and Prediction Services sea level, changes in precipitation and river flow, (CLIPS) project. The dialogue between the or changes in frequency of tropical cyclones or applications community and those producing the other extreme events. In the face of challenges forecasts and between the scientific and the user that relate to climate predictions, the World communities must continue. One cannot Meteorological Organization has naturally been overestimate the importance of properly very active, for instance through its support of communicated climate forecasts to well-educated the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), users. the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) and the WMO/UNEP IPCC. Future progress will depend not only on increased computing time, more and better Presently, through WCRP, a number of activities observations, new technologies, more are underway to better understand environmental sophisticated models, assimilation schemes and processes and increase prediction capability (see parameterizations, but also on fora like this, and the first address in this chapter). the upcoming International Symposium on Climate Change (ISCC) to be held in Beijing from Another area where considerable efforts are 31 March to 3 April 2003. The Symposium will being deployed is in monsoon studies. Monsoon also bring together the best minds to advance our systems are a key component of the Earth’s understanding through the exchange of ideas and climate system affecting the livelihood of more experience. In addition, the establishment of than 60 per cent of the world’s population. Many dedicated climate centres, such as the one at the investigations into monsoons, particularly in the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), will African-Asian and Asian-Australian regions, have also speed advances, as will the creation of 128 been carried out, but major challenges remain in regional climate centres as initiated recently by predicting the onset and intra-seasonal the WMO Executive Council. International oscillations. In this regard, WCRP has recently cooperation is indispensable for improving our launched the Coordinated Enhanced Observing knowledge of and ability to predict climate and Period (CEOP) which will take advantage of the climate variability. new Earth observing satellites, the existing suite of operational satellites, and the progress of the WMO will continue to place a high priority on Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment these activities. It will also continue to strengthen (GEWEX) continental scale experiments and its unique operational networks, which include other WCRP activities to meet key science the World Weather Watch (WWW), the Global objectives in climate prediction and monsoon Atmosphere Watch (GAW) and hydrological system studies. The participation of China in this stations, and to ensure the availability of basic important undertaking is greatly appreciated. data for research purposes in accordance with the relevant decisions of the Organization. I also To assist countries in benefiting from wish to assure you that WMO will lend whatever developments in climate predictions and in the support it can to achieve the goal of better use of past climate data to aid in the development climate predictions for sustainable development of various economic sectors, such as agriculture in the 21st century. CHAPTER 6 EVOLUTION OF THE ISSUE OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE ENERGY CONNECTION1

Note: Chapter 10 also contains Addresses to IPCC and UNFCCC, and Climate Change is discussed as well in Chapters 1, 2 and 3.

Climate variability and change: consequences for human activities

Lecture on the occasion of the 10th Annual Bahrain Science Day (University of Bahrain, Qatar, 21 May 1998)

Introduction In this connection, unfortunately, there is now major concern that our human activities are The Earth’s climate is one of humankind’s bringing about changes to the climate of the 129 greatest natural resources. The very existence of Earth. A few decades ago, scientists began human beings on the planet depends on a noticing that changes were taking place in the favourable climate. We depend on the right Earth’s atmosphere. Certain gases, which can climate for crop production and for maintaining cause the Earth to become warmer, were our vital water resources. Climate plays an increasing because of various human activities. At important role in our culture, how and where we the same time, it was discovered that the Earth’s live, in our health and in sustaining plant and mean temperature had also, for some time, been animal life. In many places, we already have to steadily increasing. The warming of the Earth deal with the periodic failure of expected would result in changes in climate, which in turn seasonal rains, which might lead to droughts, would have major implications for affected areas crop failure and occasional famine. On the other around the world. hand, too much rainfall in a very short time, or even over a season, can result in major floods that This paper will take a brief look at climate, how it cause the loss of human life and the destruction varies, and what we can expect to happen if of property. In general, we have developed the changes take place in the Earth’s climate. In the capability to adjust to these known situations. If process, it will take a look at the role of the we have changes in climate, we could make these National Meteorological Services and the World situations worse or cause them to occur in places Meteorological Organization in addressing this where they do not normally occur. Should we not important issue. try to keep climate the way we know it, rather than see changes which could bring uncertainties to our way of life?

1 Editor’s Note:Professor Obasi delivered many lectures on the issue of anthropogenic climate change and related energy issues in all parts of the world. He situated these climate effects caused by human actions in a long-term perspective on global climate variations. Space did not permit inclusion of a number of addresses directed towards more specific regional issues, delivered in locations such as Rio de Janeiro, Kobé, Abuja, Manila, Beijing, the Balkans. In lectures up until 2000 a strong basis is provided by the understandings incorporated in IPCC’s Second Assessment Report 1995. From 2001 the IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) is referred to. WMO’s pioneering role on this issue and the importance of contributions of NMHS’s are emphasized throughout the chapter Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

What is climate? climate of the Earth is determined by a number of processes resulting from the interaction of The primary driver of climate is the Sun. the Sun, the atmosphere, the land surface, the Essentially, incoming radiation from the Sun is oceans and other large water bodies, the absorbed by the surface of the Earth. The Earth vegetation of the Earth, the polar ice caps and in turn emits infrared radiation back into space. certain human activities. This is depicted in On the average, the incoming radiation from the Figure 6.2. Sun is balanced by the outgoing radiation from the Earth, thus maintaining the long-term The important atmospheric processes take place temperature balance of the Earth-atmosphere within the lower part of the atmosphere, system as a whole. However, for various specifically the troposphere and the lower reasons, such as the shape of the Earth, there is stratosphere, which has a temperature profile as a surplus of energy in the equatorial regions and indicated in Figure 6.3. This is the densest part a deficit at the poles, as indicated in Figures 2.3 of the atmosphere, where the main gases are and 2.4. To achieve a balance so that the lower nitrogen (75 per cent) and oxygen (23 per latitudes do not get too hot nor the higher cent), with the rest composed of Argon (one latitudes too cold, the surplus is redistributed per cent), varying amounts of carbon dioxide towards the poles, creating wind circulations in and water vapour and other gases in trace the atmosphere and currents in the oceans. As amounts. Within this part of the atmosphere, the Earth is rotating, the atmospheric one of the important factors that controls the circulations set up look like those shown in temperature of the Earth is the greenhouse Figure 6.1, generating areas of high atmospheric effect. In this process, a number of gases called pressure and dry areas, such as deserts, and greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, migrating low pressure areas and weather- water vapour, ozone, methane and nitrous producing systems around the world. oxide, absorb some of the outgoing radiation from the Earth and re-radiate a part back to the 130 These areas of high and low pressure are not surface and a part to space (Figure 6.4). The re- stagnant, but fluctuate in position and intensity radiated part is important in keeping the surface year by year, producing variations in weather temperature from falling too much. Because of conditions. In a simple way therefore, we can the greenhouse effect, the mean temperature of define climate as the long-term average weather the Earth’s surface is warmer by about 33°C conditions of an area. More specifically, the than it would be if the natural greenhouse gases were not present (WMO, 1991). Therefore any increase in the concentrations of the North Pole greenhouse gases will strengthen the greenhouse effect and will lead to an increase in the temperature of the Earth’s surface. At the same time, any increase in small particles in the atmosphere, either from the burning of fossil fuels or from forest and bush fires, or as a result of volcanic activity, will tend to cool the atmosphere because these particles, called aerosols, scatter and absorb radiation from the Sun before they reach the surface. Figure 6.5 shows the impact on temperatures of the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines. Any change in the radiation balance of the Earth, including those caused by greenhouse gas increases or aerosols, will alter the temperatures of the surface, the oceans and the lower part of the atmosphere, thereby affecting weather patterns and climate. Equator

Figure 6.1—Hadley cell circulations Chapter 6 — Evolution of the issue of climate change and the energy connection

Net solar Net terrestrial

SPACE SPACE (short–wave) (long–wave) radiation radiation

Absorption Reflection Volcanic gases Emission and particulates

Snow and ice Clouds

Air–land surface Precipitation Wind interactions

ATMOSPHERE ATMOSPHERE Air–ice Air–sea interactions interactions Runoff

Human activities Sea ice Currents Lakes and rivers Ice–ocean interactions Land surface processes

SEA Ground water LAND

Figure 6.2—The climate system. The complex interaction of all of these components contributes to the state of the atmosphere.

40 Figure 6.3—General structure of the lower 30 atmosphere Stratosphere 131

20 Km

Tropopause 10 Figure 6.4—A simplified diagram Troposphere illustrating the 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 -90 -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 greenhouse effect. Solar Temperature (°C) 100 radiation passes through the clear atmosphere. Some of SUN Some solar radiation the infrared radiation is reflected by the Earth is absorbed and re- and the atmosphere. emitted by the greenhouse gases. The effect of this is to warm the surface and the lower atmosphere. Some solar radiation is ATMOSPHERE Some of the infrared reflected by the Earth radiation is absorbed and the atmosphere. and re-emitted by Most radiation is Solar radition passes the greenhouse gases. through the clear The effect of this is to absorbed by the Earth’s atmosphere. warm the surface and surface and warms it. the lower atmsophere. Most radiation is Infrared radiation is EARTH Infrared radiation is emitted from the absorbed by the emitted from the Earth’s surface and Earth’s surface. Earth’s surface. warms it. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

Climate variations and change 0.4 Observed land surface air temperature

C) and night marine air temperature ° Climate variation and climate 0.2 (relative to April–June 1991) change: definitions / Model predictions 0.0 With the definition of climate in the last section, we realize that a number of variations, or fluctuations, in climate take place without affecting the –0.2 overall average. For example, in a place, we may have a wetter than normal year, followed by a –0.4

drier than normal year, but the average stays Anomaly from AMJ 1991 ( nearly the same. So we can say that a “variation in –0.6 climate” refers to a deviation from the long-term AMJ 90 AMJ 91 AMJ 92 AMJ 93 AMJ 94 AMJ 95 AMJ 96 AMJ 97 meteorological average over a certain period of Year time, e.g., a specific month, season or year. A Figure 6.5—Predicted and observed changes in stronger than normal monsoon, a more intense global land and ocean surface air temperature drought period, or a wet spell in a desert area are after the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. Lines examples of climate variations. Some well-known represent changes of three-month running mean examples are the major droughts of the Sahel temperature from April to June 1991 until region of Africa in the seventies and eighties; the March to May 1995. The two model lines record floods on the Mississippi river in the USA in represent predictions starting from different 1993 and on the Rhine river in western Europe in initial atmospheric conditions. 1995, caused by excessive rainfall in their basins; and the anomalies caused by the El Niño phenom- ated in a much smaller range, even during the enon which affects many parts of the world. (A “little ice age” from the 16th to the 19th centuries. description of the impact of El Niño is given in Some of the significant long-term climate changes 132 Chapter 5). have been caused by:

On the other hand, when we talk about “climate (a) Changes in the shape of the Earth’s orbit change”, we refer to a change in the long-term (100 000 years period); meteorological average itself, whatever the cause. (b) Variations in the tilt of the Earth (21.8° to That is, we consider climate change to be the 24.4° over a 41 000 year period); change from one climate mode to another (c) Precession of the Earth’s orbit (23 000 year climate mode, which is outside the range of the period); variations in climate. Each climate mode will have (d) Sun-related changes (e.g., 11-year solar its own variations. cycle); and, (e) Meteor impacts and volcanic eruptions.

How has climate changed over the These result in changes in the amount of radiation centuries? received from the Sun. Meteor impacts and volcanic eruptions have produced shorter-term To a large extent, human societies have become changes by increasing the aerosols in the upper accustomed to their current climatic conditions. atmosphere, thereby blocking some of the Sun’s However, over the much longer period, we see radiation from reaching the surface of the Earth. that there have always been changes in the Earth’s climate, ranging over periods from decades to When we consider the situation in the past 10 000 millions of years. By examining deep ice core in years, we note that some parts of the world were glaciers, scientists have been able to show that the particularly different from today. For example: Earth has been through a number of ice ages and various warm periods. For example, the Earth has (a) wetter conditions occurred in the Sahara been through climate cycles at about 100 000 year from 12 000 to 4 000 years before present; intervals, called the glacial-interglacial cycles, with (b) north-west India was particularly humid by global mean temperatures varying by 4 to 5°C today’s standards with frequent floods in through these cycles, as seen in Figure 6.6. In the the period 8 000 to 2 500 years before last 10 000 years, global temperatures have fluctu- present; Chapter 6 — Evolution of the issue of climate change and the energy connection

C) human element to the factors influencing climate. ° (a) Today, the emissions into the atmosphere of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxides and halo- carbon compounds, as a result of human activities, have now modified the concentrations of these gases quite significantly compared to levels before Previous ice ages Last ice ages the industrial revolution which began in the mid Temperature change ( 800 000 600 000 400 000 200 000 Years before present 18th century. The main human activities include: C) ° (b) Holocene maximum Little ice age • Energy production and transportation; • Industrial production; • tropical deforestation; and, • Agricultural practices.

Temperature change ( 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 For over 160 000 years, up to about 1800 AD, the Years before present atmospheric concentration of CO2 varied C) ° (c) between 0.01 and 0.03 per cent. Since then it has Little ice age increased by 30 per cent, with more than half occurring since 1950, as shown in Figure 6.7.

Medieval warm period We saw in section 2 that the small particles (aerosols) put into the atmosphere by human Temperature change ( 1 000 AD 1 500 AD 1 900 AD activities have a cooling effect on climate, but this cooling only occurs over or close to regions of Figure 6.6—Schematic diagrams of global major industrial activity, such as the eastern temperature variations since the Pleistocene on United States, central Europe and eastern China. three time-scales: (a) the last million years; (b) On the other hand, the heating from greenhouse 133 the last ten thousand years; and (c) the last gases is more or less the same around the world. thousand years. The dotted line nominally The effect of the heating from the greenhouse represents conditions near the beginning of the gases is greater than the cooling from aerosols, 20th century. and the net result is a general pattern of warming, as has actually been observed particularly over (c) the late tenth to early thirteenth centuries the past two or three decades, though to varying (950–1250 AD) appear to have been degrees around the world. The cooling effect of exceptionally warm in western Europe, Iceland and Greenland. 350

What has changed since the 330 industrial revolution? 310 concentration (ppm) The climate variations or changes of the past, as 2 described in the above section, have been essentially natural; that is, without significant human 290 influence. Some periods of warmth in the past were not associated with an increase in green- 270 Atmospheric CO house gases, particularly carbon dioxide, but 1720 1760 1800 1840 1880 1920 1960 2000 natural increases in carbon dioxide were always accompanied by warming. It is particularly inter- Figure 6.7—Record of the atmospheric esting to note, for example, that during the period concentration of carbon dioxide (adapted from of general widespread warmth in western Europe, Siegenthater and Oeschger, 1987). Circles refer to Iceland and Greenland, there was no evidence of the composition of air bubbles trapped in any increase in greenhouse gases. However, the Antarctic ice. Crosses are annual values present day concern is that for the first time in measured at the Mauna Loa Observatory, history, we have added the almost irreversible Hawaii, USA. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

major volcanic eruptions lasts only a few months 0.4 to a few years and is not a constant factor. 0.3 0.2 0.1 Scientists have made much progress in telling the 0.0 difference between the effects on climate -0.1 resulting from human activities and the natural -0.2 -0.3 climate variations or the effects of variations in -0.4 the Sun’s activity or volcanic eruptions. The -0.5 human influence is becoming stronger and -0.6 stronger, and scientists have thus concluded that 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 we are now actually seeing a discernible human Figure 6.8—Land surface temperature and sea influence on climate (IPCC, 1995). We note that surface temperature, 1860–1997 (August) the 20th century global mean surface (Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and temperature of the Earth is at least as warm as Research, UK) any century since 1400 AD, and since the mid to late 19th century, the data show that: natural variations, but are more likely to be the result of the global warming brought about as a • There has been an almost steady rise in the result of human activities. global mean surface temperature, and recent years have been among the warmest recorded. In fact, 1997 was the warmest year Climate change projections on record, with 1995 as the previous warmest, as shown in Figure 6.8. Mean Factors used to determine annual temperatures for three of the past projections eight years, that is, 1990, 1995 and 1997, are warmer than any other year since at least The mathematical equations used to study the 134 1400; world’s general circulation are also used to • Night-time temperatures over land have predict the future state of the world’s climate. generally increased more than daytime These comprise a modified version of Newton’s temperatures; Law of motion, the laws of thermodynamics, the • Regional changes are also evident. For hydrostatic equation and the continuity of fluid example, precipitation has increased over flow. In an ingenious manner, the effects of land in high latitudes of the northern clouds, land surfaces, ice sheets and vegetation hemisphere, especially during the cold are incorporated in these equations, which are season. In several widespread areas, fewer then in totality referred to as “models”. A frosts are occurring, while in others, there powerful computer is needed to solve the has been an increase in the amount of resulting set to predict climate for various time rainfall from extreme weather events, both periods in the future. In recent years, it has been of which are indications of variations in necessary also to incorporate into the models the climate; projection of the future emissions of greenhouse • Since around 1850, most of the world’s gases and aerosols in the atmosphere, as well as glaciers have been retreating rapidly. From changes in radiation from the Sun and outward the 16th to the 19th centuries, glaciers from Earth. These projections are also somewhat advanced significantly and were much more dependent on many social and economic factors, extensive 100–200 years ago than now. The such as: advances and retreats of glaciers in the mountainous regions of the world are • The future population of the world; striking indicators of climate changes; • Gross domestic product (GDP) and • The global sea level has risen by between 10 economic growth; and 25 cm over the past 100 years and much • Production and consumption patterns; of the rise may be related to the increase in • Land use practices; global mean temperature. • Energy supply systems; and, • Likely advances in technology. Recent studies show that it is unlikely that these changes could occur by chance as a result of Chapter 6 — Evolution of the issue of climate change and the energy connection

Resulting temperature projections 5 C) ° Including changes in aerosol beyond 1990 Taking the above factors into account, emissions 4 Constant 1990 aerosol (1) of CO2 and other greenhouse gases are projected to continue to increase beyond the end of the 3 next century, with a possible doubling or more of the CO concentration since pre-industrial times. (2) 2 2 As a result, scientists have projected that over the next century: 1 (3) • Global mean temperatures would rise by

Global temperature change ( 0 between 1 to 3.5°C, although the most likely 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 value is about 2°C (this is shown in Year Figure 6.9); Figure 6.9—Projected global mean surface • The rates of increase of the global mean air temperature change from 1990–2100. The solid temperature would be greater than any curves include the effect of changing aerosol; the believed to have occurred over the last dashed curves assume aerosol emissions remain 10 000 years. constant at their 1990 levels (Source: IPCC Second Assessment Report, 1995)

Some consequences of climate 100 (1) change for human activities 80 There are a number of serious environmental, social and economic consequences that could result from climate change. Because of 60 inadequate resources, some of these could have a (2) 135 greater effect on developing countries. Among 40 other things, climate change would affects the following: 20

Global sea-level rise (cm) (3) • Sea-level rise: This is the most obvious impli- 0 cation. Figure 6.10 shows that we currently 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 estimate a rise in the range of 15 to 95 cm Year over the next century, but the “best estimate” Figure 6.10—Projected global mean sea-level rise is about 50 cm. This would have significant from 1990–2100 social and economic impacts as flat islands, (Source: IPCC Second Assessment Report, 1995) harbours, tourist areas and productive coastal lands would all be threatened. The contamina- • Human health: The effect can be direct tion of underground and surface freshwater and/or indirect. This should be cause for supplies near the coasts and the displacement particular concern since the transmission of of tens of millions of people around the world diseases, such as malaria, dengue and yellow could be the result; fever, could increase; • Natural ecosystems: Ecosystems such as • Natural disasters: Small changes in the mean forests, pastures, deserts, mountain regions, climate can produce relatively large changes lakes, streams and wetlands, coastal systems in the frequency of extreme weather events and oceans would have difficulties in and therefore in the number of certain adapting; natural disasters. However, current research • Regional crop distribution: This could vary does not suggest any significant impact on quite considerably although the overall tropical cyclones; global crop production is unlikely to be • The global hydrological cycle: Higher temper- affected (IPCC, 1995). Some countries would atures would make the hydrological cycle likely experience a decrease in crop yields, more vigorous, with the likely results of more while others could expect an increase; severe droughts in some places and floods in other places. This would also most likely have Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

major impacts on regional freshwater stations around the world, operated by national resources (Obasi, 1997). At the same time, Hydrological Services, provide the freshwater- the risk of desertification will be increased as related data for climate studies. the environment becomes drier and the soil becomes further degraded through erosion, As regards this long history of data collection, compaction and human activities. In the WMO has, for quite some time, organized global desert areas of the Middle East, climate research into climate variability and change (see change is likely to intensify desert conditions Chapter 5). because of the increased temperature and evaporation. Land degradation could also increase. Water shortages are likely to remain What needs to be done? a problem; therefore ground water and improved irrigation and other agricultural Many complex issues have to be dealt with in practices will be vital. addressing the climate change issue, particularly as the state of the global environment continues to deteriorate. However, these can be An example of a “short-term” summarized into three categories: climate variation — El Niño • From the scientific point of view, there is a (see chapter 5) need for a greater effort to improve the observing networks and methods of El Niño and global warming? monitoring climate. Climate research efforts will have to continue so that climate Scientists are seriously debating whether the variations and climate change can be better strength of the 1982–1983 and the 1997–1998 El understood, detected and predicted; Niño events are the result of human-induced • From a political point of view, it is 136 global warming, or whether these El Niño strong imperative that every effort be made to events are instead contributing to global warming. encourage social and economic practices While research and the debate continue, we can which would not harm the environment certainly look at these two events as a hint of what further, and to implement the international some of the impacts of climate change on the agreements designed to minimize or reverse world could be if it turns out that global warming the trends towards climate change; is having an effect on El Niño. • From a public point of view, there is a need for greater awareness and understanding of the processes involved, so that the world The role of WMO and National population could support meaningful efforts Meteorological Services of policy makers; • From an industrial point of view, there have Our knowledge about climate variability and to be greater efforts to develop new possible climate change came from data going technologies which would be more energy- back into the last century. The National efficient and more friendly to the Meteorological Services of the world have been environment and thus to climate. collecting weather and climate data since those days. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) helps the National Meteorological Conclusion Services develop their data collection systems and has developed a series of global networks for Over the last three decades, considerable progress making weather, atmospheric composition and has been made in the understanding of the Earth’s climate observations. Today, weather and climate climate system, as well as in the prediction of data come from 10 satellites, 100 fixed and 600 climate variations and change and their impacts on drifting ocean buoys, 3 000 commercial aircraft, societies. The progress achieved thus far is the 7 300 ships and nearly 10 000 land stations result of many years of painstaking effort in the making observations at the surface and upper collection and analysis of climate and climate- parts of the atmosphere. (Discussed in Chapters related data from developed and developing 1 and 4.) In addition, a network of hydrological countries all over the world. With the advent of Chapter 6 — Evolution of the issue of climate change and the energy connection super computers, scientists have been able to a result, an increasing number of scientists, univer- make mathematical models of the entire climate sities and other research institutions from system, thereby making projections of what developed and developing countries are getting climate could be like over the next 100 years and involved in meaningful climate research activities. beyond. There are many improvements still to be The climate-change issue will truly be a scientific made and many uncertainties still to be addressed and political challenge for the younger generations in our scientific knowledge and in our understand- in the new millennium. ing of the impacts on various parts of the world. As

Climate change: focus on policy decisions in the next several decades

Lecture presented on the occasion of the Forty-first IMO Prize-giving ceremony (Florida State University, Tallahassee, USA, 4 November 1996)

Introduction Changes due to greenhouse gases It is a privilege for me to have the opportunity to present this short lecture to this audience on a The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), topic that is currently rated as the most jointly with the United Nations Environment challenging environmental issue of our time. Programme (UNEP), established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 137 I do not need to mention to you that the climate (IPCC) in 1988, with the following terms of change issue will be the centre of policy debates reference: to assess the science and the for several decades to come. One would therefore environmental and socio-economic impacts of ask the question: what is needed for further and climate change, and to consider the response informed policy-making? In my view, to answer strategies. The Panel has since issued several the question posed, one should address the reports, including its First and Second Assessment following critical scientific and technical Reports in 1990 and 1995 respectively. questions: The IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR), issued • What part of the observed climate change last December, has concluded (IPCC, 1995a) that “ can be attributed, if at all, to the emission of ... the balance of evidence suggests that there is greenhouse gases, and in particular to now a discernible human influence on climate”. individual gases? This is a far-reaching conclusion in the context of • What is the magnitude and rate of future the scientific debate on anthropogenically-induced climate change? climate change. The conclusion has been arrived • What is the regional distribution of such a at very carefully by some of today’s leading change? researchers on the topic, and has been reviewed • How will the change affect extreme weather by about three hundred scientists from all over the events? world. The detection of a human influence • What does it augur for food security, water requires that the magnitude of natural climate vari- supply, health, the ability of natural ability — or background noise — be quantified. To ecosystems to adapt, and, in general, this end, a variety of data such as palaeoclimatic sustainable development in different data and model outputs has been considered in geographical regions? estimating natural climate variability. Surface and • How can humankind meet its future energy vertical patterns of model calculations, made with and food needs? and without aerosols, have been compared against observations before attributing a part of the observed change to human activities. An example Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

of such a model calculation is given in Figure 6.11, considerably more realistic, following which was kindly provided by Dr S. Tett of the incorporation into models of cloud microphysical Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research processes and the effects of sulphate aerosols. in the United Kingdom. It may be seen that the Observed large-scale temperature features and, to variations in the observed annual global mean a lesser extent, precipitation patterns, are now temperature in the recent past are well above the reasonably well-represented. The models capture natural variability derived from models. the large-scale features although regional discrepancies are apparent. The models are also However, as discussed in the IPCC SAR, it is not able to reproduce seasonal cycles in response to yet possible to determine what proportion of the changes in solar forcing. observed change is due to the emission of greenhouse gases. The finding of the SAR can The ability of models to predict the effect of the therefore only enhance the pressure on the Pinatubo eruption and to capture aspects of the climate research community to make progress in large-scale interannual atmosphere fluctuations reducing the uncertainties in the ability to project over the tropical Pacific, relating to El Niño- and in detecting climate change. Thus, in the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, also near future, if not over a longer period of time, add to the confidence in the models. Figure 6.5 climate scientists will be attempting to reconfirm gives the comparison between model calculations — or question seriously — the IPCC conclusion and temperature observations for 1991–1995. It regarding human influence on climate. This can be seen that the effect of the aerosols from debate will go on for some time to come and the Pinatubo eruption (June 1991) had virtually rightly so, for that is the way of science. disappeared by the end of 1994.

Models will continue to improve, especially as a Magnitude and rate of future result of the efforts within the World Climate changes Research Programme (WCRP), and in particular 138 with respect to the treatment of aerosols and Now, what about future changes? external forcings such as the solar output and volcanic eruptions. There are of course a number of feedback processes. The models can handle Models some of them well, but not others, particularly those associated with clouds, ocean-atmosphere In the past few years, simulations of the Earth’s coupling and land-surface processes. The climate and how it may change in response to parameterization of these processes needs much anthropogenic influence have become attention and improvement and requires

Figure 6.11—Annual global mean surface temperature variability. The observed global surface temperature anomaly over the recent past is well above the natural climate variability derived from models where climate forcing is not included. (Source: Private communication from S. Tett of the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK, 1996) Chapter 6 — Evolution of the issue of climate change and the energy connection

Table 6.1—Summary Scenario Population Economic growth Energy supplies

of assumptions in the IS92a,b World Bank 1991 1990–2025: 2.9% 12 000 EJ conventional oil six IPCC 1992 11.3 billion by 2100 1990–2100: 2.3% 13 000 EJ natural gas alternative scenarios Solar costs fall to $0.075/kWh 191 EJ of biofuels available at * Approximate $70/barrel* conversion factor: 1 IS92c UN Medium-low case 1990–2025: 2.0% 8 000 EJ conventional oil barrel = 6 GJ; EJ = 6.4 billion by 2100 1990–2100: 1.2% 7 300 EJ natural gas Nuclear costs decline by 0.4% annually Exojules = 1018 J IS92d UN Medium-low case 1990–2025: 2.7% Oil and gas same as IS92c (Source: IPCC Second 6.4 billion by 2100 1900–2100: 2.0% Solar costs fall to $0.065/kWh Assessment Report, 1995) 272 EJ of biofuels available at $50/barrel IS92e World Bank 1991 1990–2025: 3.5% 18 400 EJ conventional oil 11.3 billion by 2100 1990–2100: 3.0% Gas same as IS92a,b Phase out nuclear by 2075 IS92f UN Medium-high case 1990–2025: 2.9% Oil and gas same as IS92e 17.6 billion by 2100 1990–2100: 2.3% Solar costs fall to $0.083/kWh Nuclear costs increase to $0.09/kWh

continued fundamental scientific study, such as atmospheric CO2 or equivalent CO2 that currently underway in the World Climate concentration over its preindustrial value, Research Programme (WCRP, 1995). would be in the range of 1.5 to 4.5°C. The range arises because of uncertainties in the models and feedback parameterizations, particularly that due to clouds. Factors affecting the magnitude and rate of future changes The IPCC projections of temperature change over the next century for selected emissions scenarios The impact of climate change depends not only are as follows: For the mid-range scenarios on the magnitude of the change but also on the (1S92a) and what is considered the “best 139 rate at which it occurs. While the magnitude of estimate” of climate sensitivity, the temperature a future change can be broadly estimated using increase projected over the next 100 years is 2°C. the so-called equilibrium calculations, For a scenario with a “high” level emission estimations of the rate of change require a (IS92e) and “high” climate sensitivity, the knowledge of the evolution with time of the increase would be 3.5°C. For the “low-end” concentrations of the greenhouse gases — and scenario (IS92c) and the “lowest” climate of aerosols — in the atmosphere. This raises the question of scenarios of future emissions, which 40 are of course very sensitive to the socio- IS92e economic assumptions that are made with regard to future population, production and 30 consumption patterns, energy-supply systems IS92f and likely technological advances. Table 6.1 summarizes the socio-economic assumptions

emissions (GtC/yr) IS92a

2 20 used in the formulation of the six IPCC emission IS92b scenarios (IPCC, 1995b).

The estimated emissions of anthropogenic CO2 10 IS92d over the next century, for each of the six scenarios, are given in Figure 6.12. IS92c

Anthropogenic CO 0 2000 20202040 2060 2080 2100 Future projections Year

All model calculations to date suggest that the Figure 6.12—Projected CO2 emissions for the six “climate sensitivity” or the long-term IPCC 1992 scenarios, assuming the absence of (equilibrium) change in the global mean surface emission abatement policies temperature, following a doubling of (Source: IPCC Second Assessment Report, 1995) Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

sensitivity, it would be 1°C. These projections of places. With increased CO2, there could be the rates of change of the global mean air enhanced precipitation variability associated with temperature are greater than the 0.3 to 0.6°C ENSO events, especially over tropical continents. increase observed since the late 19th century, However, there is as yet no definitive scientific and also greater than any believed to have evidence that there would be changes in the occurred over the last 10 000 years. occurrence of mid-latitude storms or tropical cyclones. Yet it is worth noting that global losses due to climate-related disasters have risen at Regional distribution about three times the rate of that due to Earthquakes over recent years. The extent to While the projection of the mean global which this could be related to anthropogenically- temperature change is helpful in defining the driven climate change or just a result of natural scope of the issue, information is required at variability is another important subject for study. regional and smaller scales for estimating potential impacts of climate change on As meteorological and climate-related natural infrastructure and natural ecosystems. However, disasters account for more than 70 per cent of all there are many difficulties with regional disasters, advances in the prediction of extreme projections, including those arising from: weather events will be of immense value to policy makers, the private sector and the general public. • The coarseness of the grid points of the global climate models currently used for future projections (many geographic features Impacts — e.g. coastlines, lakes, mountains — surface vegetation and interactions between An obvious impact of global warming would be the surface and the atmosphere are the projected global sea-level rise and its socio- inadequately represented); economic implications. The range projected by 140 • The natural variation of the elements of the the IPCC, corresponding to the emission local climate which is much greater than scenarios and climate sensitivities mentioned those averaged over continental or global earlier, is 15 to 95 cm over the next century. This scales (this arises from variations generated is given in Figure 6.10. The lower rise is about locally by storms, interactions between the the same as that seen over the last 100 years and atmosphere and the oceans — such as El humanity could presumably adapt to it. The latter Niño-Southern Oscillation. ENSO — and figure, however, is six times higher and calls into from variations in soil moisture, sea ice and question our ability to adapt and/or absorb the other components of the climate system); associated costs that would be required for its • Uneven spatial distribution of human- mitigation. induced tropospheric aerosols; and • Land-use changes (e.g. deforestation, It can be noted from Figure 6.10 that during the desertification, etc.) which are believed to first half of the next century, the choice of have significant impact on temperature and emission scenarios has a relatively small effect on precipitation changes, especially in the the projected sea-level rise due to the large tropics and subtropics. thermal inertia of the oceans, but has increasingly larger effects in the latter part of the next century. However, for the same reason, the sea Effects of changes on extreme level will continue to rise beyond 2100, even if weather events the concentration of greenhouse gases were to be stabilized by that time. A small change in the mean climate or climate variability could conceivably result in significant Current models show that the impact of climate changes in the intensity and/or frequency of change will not be distributed uniformly around extreme weather events. At the least, a general the globe. For example, the warming of the land warming would result in an increase in extremely surface will be greater than that of the sea in high temperature episodes. The hydrological winter. In addition, the rate of change is unlikely cycle would be enhanced, with prospects for to be uniformly distributed. This information is more severe droughts and/or floods in some therefore vital in the examination of the adaptive Chapter 6 — Evolution of the issue of climate change and the energy connection capacity of natural ecosystems. Model studies indi- areas, existing deserts could become hotter but cate, for example, that a 1°C rise in the global not significantly wetter, further limiting any mean temperature — the lower end of the IPCC productive use. The risk of desertification will be projection — would cause about one-third of the increased as the environment becomes drier and world’s forests to change their vegetation types, the soil becomes further degraded through with the greatest change occurring in the high lati- erosion, compaction and human activities. tudes. For the IPCC projection of the temperature change in the range of 1 to 3.5°C over the next Climate change and associated sea-level rise can century, present isotherms would shift polewards also have negative impacts on human by approximately 150 to 550 km. This compares infrastructure such as those related to energy, with past tree migration rates estimated to be industry, transportation and coastal installations. between 4 and 200 km per century. It is therefore obvious from the foregoing that In addition to the assessment of the impacts of regional climate change projections, including the regional temperature variations on the their impacts, are required by policy- and ecosystems, the IPCC concluded that the global decision makers. In this context, the World crop production is unlikely to be affected by a Climate Research Programme is beginning to give doubling of CO2 concentrations over its high priority to the investigation of improved preindustrial value. But its regional distribution, assessment of regional climate changes (WCRP, as shown in Table 6.2 for selected crops, could 1995). The assessments of the IPCC are clearly vary quite considerably. Productivity is projected pointing to the areas where research ought to be to increase in some areas and decrease in others, directed in the next few years. especially in the tropics and subtropics.

There remain large uncertainties in these Future energy and food estimates. However, no region can draw comfort requirements nor plan its future food strategy without taking 141 into consideration such potential impacts. How should humankind meet its future energy and food requirements without seriously Effects on human health can be direct and/or affecting the climate? indirect, as shown in Table 6.3. The indirect impact should be cause for particular concern The activities that contribute to the satisfaction of since it includes increases in the potential the current energy and food requirements are the transmission of vector-borne diseases such as ones that are responsible for much of the present malaria, dengue and yellow fever. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Therefore technologies and practices that would adequately For the upper part of the IPCC-projected range of reduce the GHG emissions are needed. Even if temperature increase (i.e. 3.5°C by the year these become available relatively fast, the associ- 2100), model projections indicate that the ated costs might be prohibitive. Thus energy geographical zone of potential malaria supply systems will have to be replaced with GHG- transmission could be expected to expand and friendly technologies, including alternative and thus increase from about 45 per cent of the world renewable technologies at the right time of capital population to about 60 per cent in the latter half turnover. The collection, distribution and applica- of the next century. tion of information related to energy resources will need to be promoted. The intensification of the global hydrological cycle would be likely to have major impacts on With regard to future food requirements, we regional water resources. Even relatively small should note that the world population is projected changes in temperature and precipitation, in to increase from the current 5.7 billion to 8.3 conjunction with non-linear effects on billion in 2025 and to about 10 billion in 2050. Yet evapotranspiration and soil moisture, may result the global arable land will remain essentially the in large reductions in run-off, especially in arid same, putting untold pressure on the agricultural and semi-arid regions, aggravating the already community to use various methods, such as the serious problems of quantity and quality of water increased use of fertilizers, to enhance production. supplies in many parts of the world. In other But nitrogen-based fertilizers promote greenhouse Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

Region Crop Yield impact (%) Comments Latin America Maize –61 to increase Data are from Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico; range is across GCM scenarios, with and without CO2 effect. Wheat –50 to –5 Data are from Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil; range is across GCM scenarios, with and without CO2 effect. Soybean –10 to +40 Data are from Brazil; range is across GCM scenarios, with CO2 effect. Former Soviet Wheat –19 to +41 Range is across GCM scenarios and region, Union Grain –14 to +13 with CO2 effect. Europe Maize –30 to increase Data are from France, Spain and northern Europe; with adaptation and CO2 effect; assumes longer season, irrigation efficiency loss and northward shift. Wheat increase or Data are from France, UK and northern decrease Europe; with adaptation and CO2 effect; assumes longer season, northward shift, increased pest damage and lower risk of crop failure. Vegetables increase Data are from UK and northern Europe; assumes increased pest damage and lower risk of crop failure. North America Maize –55 to +62 Data are from USA and Canada; range is Wheat –100 to +234 across GCM scenarios and sites, with/without adaptation and with/without CO2 effect. Soybean –96 to +58 Data are from USA; less severe or increase with CO2 and adaptation. 142 Africa Maize –65 to +6 Data are from Egypt, Kenya, South Africa and Zimbabwe; range is over studies and climate scenarios, with CO2 effect. Millet –79 to –63 Data are from Senegal; carrying capacity fell 11–38 per cent. Biomass Decrease Data are from South Africa; agrozone shifts. South Asia Rice –22 to +28 Data are from Bangladesh, India, Philippines, Maize –65 to –10 Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and Myanmar; Wheat –61 to +67 range is over GCM scenarios, with CO2 effect; some studies also consider adaptation. China Rice –78 to +28 Includes rainfed and irrigated rice; range is across sites and GCM scenarios; genetic variation provides scope for adaptation. Other Asia and Rice –45 to +30 Data are from Japan and South Korea; range Pacific Rim is across GCM scenarios; generally positive in north Japan and negative in south. Pasture –1 to +35 Data are from Australia and New Zealand; regional variation. Wheat –41 to +65 Data are from Australia and Japan; wide variation, depending on cultivar.

× Table 6.2—Selected crop study results for 2 CO2-equivalent equilibrium Global Circulation Model (GCM) scenarios NOTE: For most regions, studies have focused on one or two principal grains. These studies strongly demonstrate the variability in estimated yield impacts among countries, scenarios, methods of analysis and crops, making it difficult to generalize results across areas or for different climate scenarios. (Source: IPCC Second Assessment Report, 1995) Chapter 4 — The World Weather Watch and Public Weather Services

Table 6.3—Ways in Mediating process Health outcomes which climate change DIRECT can affect human health Altered rates of heat- and cold- Exposure to thermal extremes related illness and death (especially heatwaves) (especially cardiovascular and respiratory diseases)

Altered frequency and/or intensity Deaths, injuries and psychologi- CLIMATE of other extreme weather events cal disorders; damage to public CHANGE: (floods, storms, etc.) health infrastructure TEMPERATURE, PRECIPITATION AND WEATHER INDIRECT DISTURBANCES OF ECOLOGICAL SYSTEM Changes in geographic ranges Effects on range and activity of and incidence of vector-borne vectors and infective parasites diseases

Altered local ecology of water- Changed incidence of diarrheal borne and food-borne infective and certain other infectious agents diseases

Altered food (especially crop) Regional malnutrition and productivity due to changes in hunger, and consequent impair- climate, weather events, and ment of child growth and associated pests and diseases development

Sea-level rise with population Injuries, increased risks of vari- displacement and damage to ous infectious diseases (due to infrastructure (e.g., sanitation) migration, crowding, contamination of drinking water), psychological disorders 143 Levels and biological impacts Asthma and allergic disorders; of air pollution, including other acute and chronic respira- pollens and spores tory disorders and deaths

Social, economic and demo- graphic dislocations due to Wide range of public health adverse climate change impacts consequences (e.g., mental on economy, infrastructure health, nutritional impairment, and resource supply infectious diseases, civil strife)

NOTE: Populations with different levels of natural, technical and social resources would differ in their vulnerability to climate-induced health impacts. (Source: IPCC Second Assessment Report, 1995) gases and are known to pollute freshwater tified uncertainties in climate predictions and to resources. Hence appropriate alternatives will promote relevant climate services. For this have to be found. Existing forests will likely face reason, WMO, in collaboration with other organi- increasing pressure due to the search for more zations, will continue to support the Global arable lands and energy needs, but it is important Climate Observing System which is based on the to recognize that forests need to be preserved as existing major observing programmes of WMO, sinks for CO2 and for their many socio-economic including those within the World Weather benefits. These issues will have to be studied in Watch, the Hydrology and Water Resources greater depth and with an increased sense of Programme and the Global Atmosphere Watch. urgency, taking into account the results of biotech- For effective utilization of the data in research nology research. activities, WMO co-sponsors the World Climate Research Programme. Furthermore, while research and monitoring are needed to advance WMO’s support programmes scientific knowledge and to improve climate projections into the 21st century, scientific There is need to improve our monitoring and progress being made should, where appropriate, research efforts geared to narrowing down iden- be translated into forms that will contribute to Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

the well-being of humanity. WMO therefore be more vulnerable to the consequences of a proposes to carry out this activity through its climate change. Such vulnerability can result in Climate Information and Prediction Services a cascading series of events, including migration (CLIPS) project (WMO, 1991, 1995). of peoples and loss of potential markets in the developing world. It is true that political leaders are accustomed to making decisions in the face Concluding remarks of uncertainties. Nonetheless, we as scientists will have to find ways to reduce and/or quantify What all this shows is that climate science has uncertainties and hence provide satisfactory come of age and is no longer a matter of replies to the critical scientific and technical scientific curiosity. Demands for reliable and questions that might be asked to assist the accurate information on future climate will policy makers to formulate realistic sustainable increase many fold world-wide. For policy- development plans and take appropriate policy making, a clearcut answer is obviously vital, decisions for the next several decades. All this particularly to enable proper planning of those will have to be done in a time period that would sectors of the national economy that are be useful to decision makers in the light of the dependent on such information. For socio- activities under the aegis of the UN Framework economic reasons, and for lack of adequate Convention on Climate Change (FCCC, 1996). capacity, the developing countries are likely to This is a new challenge.

Responding to the potential threat of climate change in the Pacific region: challenges and opportunities 144 for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs)

Lecture at the Pacific Islands Conference on Climate Change, Climate Variability and Sea-level Rise (Rarotonga, Cook Islands, 3 April 2000)

Introduction to natural disasters such as tropical cyclones and Many island nations in the Pacific Ocean region storm surges and makes them extremely are comprised of groups of small islands vulnerable to sea-level rise. (Figure 6.13) and form part of the Small Island Developing States (SIDS). Several of them are The population of these island states ranges from Members of the World Meteorological less than 20 000 inhabitants in Niue, the Cook Organization (WMO) and include Cook Islands, Islands and Tuvalu to over 4 million in Papua the Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, French New Guinea. The majority of the population of Polynesia, New Caledonia, Niue, Papua New the South-East islands live in coastal rural areas, Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga and but there are strong trends towards rural-urban Vanuatu. Other island nations of the Pacific are migration. Agriculture, fisheries and tourism form Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau and the foundation of the economies of these small Tuvalu. Some of the islands are volcanic in island states. For example, two-thirds of the nature, with steep slopes and rugged topography, population of Samoa live on subsistence farming and lie in the principal Earthquake zones. Others in rural villages, while the major export earnings are very flat atolls that are often only a few are derived from sugar (Fiji), bananas (Tonga), metres above mean sea level. For example, much copra (Cook Islands, Palau and Vanuatu), and of the land areas of Kiribati, Marshall Islands and forestry (Solomon Islands). Other major socio- Tuvalu rarely exceed 3 to 4 meters above mean economic activities include mining (Nauru) and sea level. Such topography exposes coastal areas international transportation, both by air and sea. Chapter 4 — The World Weather Watch and Public Weather Services

90°E 100°E 110°E 120°E 130°E 140°E 150°E 160°E 170°E 180° 170°W 160°W 150°W 140°W 130°W

Mariana Islands

20°N 20°N Hawaii Guam Philippines Marshall Islands

10°N 10°N Palau Caroline Islands Brunei Darussalam Malaysia Federated States of Micronesia Singapore EQ Nauru EQ Papua New Guinea Solomon Islands Kiribati Indonesia Tuvalu Tokelau 10°S 10°S

Samoa French Polynesia Vanuatu Fiji 20°S Niue Cook Islands 20°S New Caledonia Tonga Australia Pitcairn

30°S 30°S

40°S 40°S New Zealand

50°S 50°S

90°E 100°E 110°E 120°E 130°E 140°E 150°E 160°E 170°E 180° 170°W 160°W 150°W 140°W 130°W Figure 6.13—Map of the South-West Pacific

The climate of the area than 4 000 mm at Teraina some 400 km away. When drought occurs, the rainfall at some A sound understanding of the space-time locations in the Republic can be as low as characteristics of the climate of the area is 200 mm per year. 145 essential before one can adequately address climate change issues in the region. In what In view of the geographic locations of the island follows, the focus will be on the climate of the countries, they are often affected by tropical Pacific Island Countries (PICs). The Pacific Ocean cyclones and storm surges. There is, however, exerts a strong influence and moderates the significant year-to-year variability in the activities climates of the small islands of the region of the tropical cyclones. For example, during the throughout the year. The countries are located two tropical cyclone seasons in 1993/1994 and within the tropical belt of the Pacific Ocean 1995/1996, a total of about 30 tropical cyclones spanning the longitudes of about 130°E to occurred across the region, while in 1996/1997 130°W. As a result, the mean temperatures in the total was 20 tropical cyclones. most of the Pacific Ocean Island countries are usually high throughout the year, resulting in A major climate system that has significant influ- high relative humidity in most coastal locations. ence on the occurrence of tropical cyclones and For example, in Kiribati, surface temperature on the space-time patterns of rainfall in the region varies between 25°C and 33°C. Diurnal and is the El Niño phenomenon (see Chapter 5). seasonal variations in temperature are also generally low, with values up to about 5°C. The spatial and year-to- year variability of rainfall is, Magnitude and rate of climate however, very large. For example, Rarotonga, the change capital of Cook Islands which are mountainous and rise to over 650 m above mean sea level, Models experiences a hot humid summer (October–April) and a warm dry winter Observational evidence shows that the global (May–September), with an average annual mean temperature has been increasing in recent precipitation ranging from about 2 000 mm at the years. At the same time it has been observed that coast to about 4 000 mm over the high grounds. atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases In the Republic of Kiribati, annual average rainfall has also been increasing. In order to study the ranges from about 700 mm at Kiritimati to more influence of increasing greenhouse gases due to Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

human activities, computer models are used. In Future projections the past few years, simulations of the Earth’s climate and how it may change in response to All model calculations to date suggest that the anthropogenic influence have become “climate sensitivity” or the long-term considerably more realistic, following (equilibrium) change in the global mean surface incorporation into models of cloud microphysical temperature, following a doubling of atmospheric processes, parameterization of land surfaces, CO2 or equivalent CO2 concentration over its oceans, snow cover and their effects of sulphate pre-industrial value, would be in the range of 1.5 aerosols. Observed large-scale temperature to 4.5°C. The range arises because of features and, to a lesser extent, precipitation uncertainties in the models and feedback patterns, are now reasonably well-represented. parameterizations, particularly those due to clouds. Models will continue to improve, especially as a result of the efforts within the World Climate The IPCC projections of temperature change over Research Programme (WCRP), and in particular the next century for selected emissions scenarios with respect to the treatment of aerosols and are as follows: For the mid-range scenarios external forcings such as the solar output and (1S92a) and those considered the “best estimate” volcanic eruptions. There are, of course, a of climate sensitivity, the temperature increase number of feedback processes. The models can projected over the next 100 years is 2°C. For a handle some of them well, but not others, scenario with a “high” level emission (IS92e) and particularly those associated with clouds, ocean- “high” climate sensitivity, the increase would be atmosphere coupling and land-surface processes. 3.5°C. For the “low-end” scenario (IS92c) and the The parameterization of these processes needs “lowest” climate sensitivity, it would be 1°C. calls for great care and attention and continuous These projections of the rates of change of the improvement and requires continued global mean air temperature are higher than the fundamental scientific studies such as those 0.3 to 0.6°C increase observed since the late 19th 146 currently underway in the World Climate century. Research Programme (WCRP, 1995). Regional distribution

Factors affecting the magnitude While the projection of the global mean and rate of future changes temperature change is helpful in defining the scope of the issue, information is required at The impact of climate change depends not only regional and smaller scales for estimating on the magnitude of the change but also on the potential impacts of climate change on rate at which it occurs. While the magnitude of a infrastructure and natural ecosystems. However, future change can be broadly estimated using the there are many difficulties with regional so-called equilibrium calculations, estimations of projections, including those arising from: the rate of change require a knowledge of the evolution with time of the concentrations of the • The coarseness of the grid points of the greenhouse gases — and of aerosols — in the global climate models currently used for atmosphere. This raises the question of scenarios future projections (many geographic features of future emissions, which are, of course, very — e.g. coastlines, lakes, mountains — sensitive to the socio-economic assumptions that surface vegetation and interactions between are made with regard to future population, the surface and the atmosphere are production and consumption patterns, energy inadequately represented, and it is unlikely supply systems and likely technological advances. that it will be possible to capture, at the Table 6.1 summarizes the socio-economic present time, the implication of climate assumptions used in the formulation of the six change for the individual islands); IPCC emission scenarios (IPCC, 1995b). • The natural variation of the elements of the local climate, which is much greater than The estimated emissions of anthropogenic CO2 those averaged over continental or global over the next century, for each of the six scales this arises from variations generated scenarios, are given in Figure 6.12. locally by storms, interactions between the Chapter 4 — The World Weather Watch and Public Weather Services

atmosphere and the oceans — such as El storm surges, and many people are displaced Niño/Southern Oscillation: ENSO — and every year. Sea-level rise resulting from climate from variations in soil moisture, sea ice and change would have a severe impact on the other components of the climate system); populations living in low-lying coastal areas and • Uneven spatial distribution of human- small islands as well as on agriculture, wetlands induced tropospheric aerosols; and • and infrastructure, including harbours, and on land-use changes (e.g. deforestation, various other economic activities. Human desertification, etc.) which are believed to activities such as coral mining and coastal have significant impact on temperature and pollution from settlements and other socio- precipitation changes, especially in the economic activities can aggravate the impact of tropics and subtropics. climate change. Offshore coral reefs in some PICs, which form protective barriers, are highly vulnerable to even a small change in sea level. Potential impacts of climate Those places where the conversion of mangroves change in the region swamps to other activities is widespread, the coastal protection against wave erosion and General circulation models indicate that the storms will be seriously reduced. Subsistence and average rate of warming would probably be commercial activities may be affected by the greater than any observed in the last 10 000 years. adverse impact on fish and shellfish resources The predicted rise of sea-level would represent a due to changes in nutrient levels in coastal rate that is 2 to 5 times higher that what has been waters. observed over the last 100 years. Such predicted changes will have far-reaching physical, environmental, biological and socio-economic Freshwater resources implications, including the potential threat of serious socio-economic disruption (Obasi 1992, Warmer temperatures would make the 1996, 1999b). The major potential impacts hydrological cycle more vigorous, with the likely 147 include the following: result that there could be more severe droughts in some places and floods in other places. This would most likely have a major impact on Sea-level rise regional freshwater resources. In addition, inland intrusion of sea water associated with sea-level An obvious impact of global warming would be rise may result in the salinization of coastal fresh the projected global sea-level rise and its socio- water. This has been observed in some islands economic implications. The range projected by such as the Kiribati. Such effects may render the IPCC, corresponding to the emission small atolls and limestone islands uninhabitable scenarios and climate sensitivities mentioned unless cheaper technology is made available for earlier, is 15 to 95 cm over the next century. The the desalination of sea water. lower rise is about the same as that seen over the last 100 years, and humanity could presumably adapt to it. The latter figure, however, is six times Tourism higher and calls into question our ability to adapt and/or absorb the associated costs that would be PICs depend to some extent on tourism and it is required for its mitigation. expected that any rise in sea level will induce coastal erosion which will have a profound effect During the first half of the next century, the on the tourist industry. Such effects may, in turn, choice of emission scenarios will have a relatively put in jeopardy the sustainability of key sectors of small effect on the projected sea-level rise due to the economic activities of the islands. the large thermal inertia of the oceans, but will have increasingly larger effects in the latter part of the next century. However, for the same reason, the sea level will continue to rise beyond Natural disasters 2100, even if the concentration of greenhouse gases were stabilized at that time. Many coastal A small change in the mean climate or climate zones in PICs are already at risk of flooding from variability could conceivably result in significant Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

changes in the intensity and/or frequency of hydrological events have also occurred over the extreme weather events. At the least, a general recent past. For instance, El Niño phenomenon warming would result in an increase in extremely (warm El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) high temperature episodes. Recent data show phase) has been more frequent than la Niña (cold that record warming has been broken many times ENSO phase) since the early 1970s. This may since the early 1990s, with 1998 currently have resulted in changes in the frequency and standing as the warmest year since the 1860s, the intensity of floods, droughts, cyclone activities oldest period with credible instrumental records and other extreme climate events in some regions (Obasi 1999). Even with the cold La Niña such as the PICs where El Niño signals are strong condition that dominated the year 1999, it was (Obasi 1999a). The extreme weather- and still the fifth warmest year in this century. climate-related events have resulted in extensive economic damage and human suffering that have As mentioned earlier, the hydrological cycle led to growing concern in recent years as to would be enhanced, with prospects for more whether the frequency and distribution of severe droughts and/or floods in some places. extreme weather events around the world are With increased CO2, there could be enhanced changing. Table 6.4 provides socio-economic precipitation variability associated with ENSO statistics for some of the PICs. In the region, four events, especially over tropical continents. cyclones affected Fiji between January and March However, there is as yet no definitive scientific 1985, with two, namely Eric and Nigel, striking evidence that there would be changes in the within 48 hours of each other and causing occurrence of mid-latitude storms or tropical damage in excess of US$ 30 million (0.6 per cent cyclones. Yet it is worth noting that global losses of GDP). In 1993, Kina led to the worst flooding due to climate-related disasters have risen at in over 50 years and to the highest damage to about three times the rate of that due to date of over US$ 120 million (2.4 per cent of Earthquakes over recent years. The extent to GDP). Of a struck Samoa after a lapse of some which this could be related to anthropogenically 20 years causing estimated damage of around 148 driven climate change or just a result of natural US$ 120 million (25.5 per cent of GDP). Val came variability is another important subject for study. a year later with attributed damage of nearly However, recent records show that an US$ 200 million (42.5 per cent of GDP). Namu unprecedented number of meteorological and hit the Solomon Islands outside the usual cyclone Table 2: Some Statistics for Pacific Island Countries

Country Total Total area Elevation GDP-per capita population (sq km) extremes (m) (US $) (millions) Lowest Highest point point Cook Islands .020 240 0 652 4 000 (1994 est.)

Fiji .813 18 270 0 1 324 6 700 (1998 est.)

French Polynesia .242 4 167 0 2 241 10 800 (1997 est.)

Kiribati .085 717 0 81 800 (1996 est.)

Micronesia, Federated .131 702 0 791 1 760 (1996 est.) States of

New Caledonia .197 19 060 0 1 628 11 400 (1996 est.)

Nauru .010 21 0 61 10 000 (1993 est.)

Niue .002 260 0 68 1 200 (1993 est.)

Papua New Guinea 4.705 462 840 0 4 509 2 400 (1998 est.)

Samoa .230 2 860 0 1 857 2 100 (1997 est.)

Solomon Islands .455 28 450 0 2 447 2 600 (1998 est.) Tokelau .002 10 0 5 1 000 (1993 est.)

Tonga .109 748 0 1 033 2 100 (97/98 est.) Table 6.4—Some Tuvalu .016 26 0 5 800 (1995 est.) Statistics for Pacific Vanuatu .189 14 760 0 1 877 1 300 (1997 est.) Island Countries Chapter 4 — The World Weather Watch and Public Weather Services season in 1986, resulting in the loss of over 100 establishment of meteorological, hydrological and human lives. other related geophysical observational network, and in the promotion of meteorological and As meteorological and climate-related natural related services. A number of activities are being disasters account for nearly 70 per cent of all undertaken by WMO and NMHSs in support of disasters, advances in the prediction of extreme humankind’s efforts to address climate-change weather events will be of immense value to issues. policymakers, the private sector and the general public. Climate monitoring

Efforts related to climate Monitoring of all components of the global change at the international climate system for assessing climate change forms the core activity of WMO and NMHSs. Systematic level acquisition of quality-controlled data is carried out through the World Weather Watch (WWW), Most of the international efforts regarding climate the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW), the World change are carried out within the framework of Climate Programme (WCP) and the global the United Nations Convention on Climate hydrological networks. This is being enhanced by Change (UNFCCC). The Kyoto Protocol to the the development and implementation of the UNFCCC requires the developed countries Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), which (Annex I countries) to reduce their overall includes the climate modules of the Global emissions of the six major GHG’s by at least 5 per Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS) and the cent below 1990 levels by between 2008 and Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS). In this 2012. It is therefore important that SIDS, respect, there is a need to enhance the sea-level including the PICs, should continue to effectively gauge network for monitoring and detection of participate in all the Conferences that address the sea-level rise. A major challenge is therefore to 149 climate-change issue. ensure improvements in data availability, particularly over the data-sparse regions (Figure WMO provides technical and scientific support to 6.14) including the provision of solutions to the many international efforts to address climate- declining in upper-air and hydrological change issues, including the WMO/UNEP observations. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the World Climate Research Programme Enhanced observation can improve the (WCRP), UNFCCC and its SBSTA, and other applications of meteorological and hydrological regional initiatives mentioned. It is essential that data to socio-economic activities. For example, the world community continue to maintain its data from the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) efforts so as to slow down the current trend Array led to enhanced understanding of large- related to climate change. scale ocean-atmosphere interactions on seasonal-to-interannual time scales and to a breakthrough in El Niño prediction as well as WMO and NMHS support to improved seasonal prediction in some parts of climate change activities the world with strong ENSO signals such as the PICs. The Array was developed in the context of Meteorological and hydrological observations are the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere required in order to improve the understanding (TOGA) project over the Pacific Ocean region of weather and climate systems; provide a between 1985 and 1994, under the auspices of description of the present state of the climate; the WMO’s World Climate Research Programme monitor weather and climate variability/change (WCRP) which is jointly sponsored by the and the associated impacts; and also serve as a International Council for Science (ICSU) and the basis for climate predictions, early warning and Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission disaster preparedness. For over 125 years the (IOC) of UNESCO. The TAO Array should WMO and its predecessor the International therefore be improved to enhance the capacity Meteorological Organization (IMO) have of El Niño prediction for the benefit of regional facilitated worldwide cooperation in the warning and disaster preparedness. WMO also Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

advocates free and unrestricted exchange of environmentally friendly technology. WMO’s meteorological and hydrological data and Education and Training Programme and its products worldwide. A challenge is therefore to Technical Cooperation Programme address the maintain the WMO arrangement regarding needs of the Member countries regarding exchange of such data for climate-change capacity building and technology transfer to the studies. NMHSs. Continued attention is being paid to capacity-building activities, including optimum use of 23 WMO Regional Meteorological Training Data exchange Centres, networked closely with major research centres worldwide to assist in human resources The extensive monitoring activities of the development. As regards climate change, NMHSs National Meteorological and Hydrological should enhance their capacity in climate Services that contribute to climate studies and modelling and the interpretation of the products. application require enhanced capacity for the Such information could be used in the processing and exchange of the relevant data and development of regional and local-scale scenarios products. To accomplish this important task, that are required for policy-making. several global and regional centres have been established. The NMHSs of the region require enhanced capacity, using up-to-date Support for research telecommunication facilities to obtain relevant data and products from Regional Specialized Many uncertainties still exist regarding some Meteorological Centres such as in Nadi, Fiji. aspects of climate change and the associated impacts. Most climate change policy research requires accurate local and regional climate Capacity building and transfer of change scenarios that are not yet available. WMO environmentally friendly and the NMHSs provide the international 150 framework required for data exchange and technology in the vulnerable climate-related research that are required in regions order to reduce the various climate-change uncertainties. WMO’s climate research activities The challenges of climate change require skilled are implemented under many of its programmes multi-disciplinary human resources and enhanced and activities including Atmospheric Research institutional capacity. They also require the and Environment Programme (AREP) and WCRP. transfer of appropriate modern and The latter programme has initiated several

GSN CLIMAT received (93) GSN SYNOP received (50 Figure 6.14—Status of GSN silent (12) Other CLIMAT received (45) the GCOS surface Other SYNOP received (69) network in Region V Other silent (18) in 1999 Chapter 4 — The World Weather Watch and Public Weather Services research activities related to climate change. This related to climate change. It is located in the includes the Climate Variability and Predictability Headquarters of SPREP and has been operational (CLIVAR) programme that is addressing since 12 April 1999. The Office keeps in touch prediction and climate change challenges of this with Members, the relevant regional century, and also takes advantage of TOGA organizations, including SPREP, SOPAC, ASEAN achievements. The NMHSs of the Region should and ESCAP as well as the offices of Organizations collectively address regional research priorities, within the UN system and other development especially those related to ENSO and climate partners. change impacts. In particular, there is a need to improve the assessment of the impact on sectors such as agriculture, freshwater resources, What the Pacific islands should tourism and coastal ozone management, as well do? as on natural ecosystems and various infrastructures. In order to enable the Island countries to respond effectively to the potential threat of climate change, it is essential that the NMHSs be International and regional strengthened. In particular there is need to: cooperation • Improve the meteorological and hydrological WMO and its Member countries will continue to observational network and contribute to the provide an international technical and scientific strengthening of the TAO array; in particular, framework for addressing climate-change issues sea-level gauges should be installed, where at national, regional and international levels. none exist; They will also provide relevant data for • Strengthen or upgrade data processing and assessments by IPCC and for policy formulation telecommunications facilities so that the and implementation of the convention and NMHSs can exchange data and, in particular, protocols at the national, regional and global receive and process relevant products from 151 levels. Their support is also essential for the Regional Specialized Meteorological Activities Implemented Jointly (AIT) and the Centre for Tropical Cyclones in Nadi and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) which is global centres such as those located in a mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol that may Melbourne; assist the PICs. The NMHSs should continue to • Enhance human resources capacity so that provide vital scientific support to the the available data and products related to negotiations and implementation of the various climate change could be appropriately conventions and protocols and, in particular, the analysed and interpreted and made available United Nations Framework Convention on to the public and policy makers, enabling Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto them to contribute effectively to specific Protocol. At the regional level, WMO is projects and technical cooperation cooperating with several organizations such as programmes designed to assist PICs in the the South Pacific Regional Environment area of climate change; Programme (SPREP), the South Pacific Applied • Enhance their capacity to contribute to Geoscience Commission (SOPAC) and the education and awareness of the public; Economic and Social Commission for Asia and • Improve the capacity to take initiatives and the Pacific (ESCAP) on issues related to climate to show leadership at the national level in change and the reduction of vulnerability of the matters related to climate change, to ensure society to negative impacts of weather- and that appropriate scientific information is climate-related disasters. WMO and the NMHSs made available to policy and decision makers have collaborated with SPREP and other partners (this is essential if the PICs are to develop in the development of meteorology in the Pacific appropriate policies and participate region for the period 2000–2009 (BOM 1999). appropriately in negotiations on climate change issues); WMO’s Subregional Office for the South-West • Collaborate with NMHSs of other SIDS Pacific in Apia, Samoa, is responsible for ensuring countries so that they can share experience that WMO and the NMHSs provide the necessary and expertise in addressing the climate support to regional initiatives, including those change issues. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

Conclusion has taken in the context of the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol in order to stabilize the In the context of the proposed Framework for greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere Regional Action on Climate Change, the NMHSs at a level that would prevent dangerous have a crucial role to play. WMO remains anthropogenic interferences with the climate committed to assist the PICs in this important system. But above all, the Pacific Island countries undertaking so that the threat of climate change should take the necessary initiatives within their and its impact is adequately addressed. The means — individually and collectively — and international community should assist the PICs enhance their capacity to respond effectively to and continue to implement the commitments it the threat of climate change.

Statement at the International Symposium on Climate Change (ISCC)1

(Beijing, China, 31 March 2003)

It gives me great pleasure to join you today at the Observing System (GOS), has been rising. The opening of this International Symposium on warmest year in the 1860-to-present instrumental Climate Change. On behalf of the World record occurred in 1998, with 2002 being the Meteorological Organization (WMO) and myself, I second highest. Eleven of the 13 warmest years 152 congratulate the China National Climate have occurred since 1990. These conditions are Committee (CNCC), the China Meteorological part of a continuing trend to warmer global Administration (CMA), and in particular Dr Qin temperatures that have resulted in a rise of more Dahe, the Permanent Representative of the than 0.6°C during the past 100 years. Since 1976, People’s Republic of China with WMO, for taking the global average temperature has risen at a rate the initiative to organize this important approximately three times faster than the Symposium. I wish to express my appreciation to century-scale trend. the People’s Republic of China for hosting this timely event and for its unflinching support to the We are also certain that the atmospheric programmes and activities of WMO. Indeed, the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) has presence of His Excellency Mr Hui Lianqyu, Vice- increased from 280 ppm in 1750 to 370 ppm by Premier, is further testimony to China’s leadership the end of 2001, an increase of over 32 per cent. role and commitment to promoting worldwide Today’s CO2 concentration has not been cooperation in addressing environmental issues, exceeded in the past 420 000 years and not likely especially those related to climate change. during the past 20 million years. Moreover, the rate of increase over the past century is This Symposium is timely in view of global unprecedented, at least over the past 20 000 concern about a number of trends in the state of years. Furthermore, in recent decades, a growing the global climate, as well as changes observed in number of unprecedented extreme weather natural ecosystem and animal life patterns. These events, such as tropical cyclones, severe floods are seen as possible manifestations of a warmer and droughts, continue to cause considerable loss climate. of life and inflict damage to property. In recent months, major storm events and floods affected Indeed, we observe that the global mean surface many countries around the world. China has not temperature, obtained from WMO’s Global been spared. In addition, record-breaking

1 Among those present were His Excellency Mr Hui Lianqyu, Vice-Premier of the People’s Republic of China and Dr Qin Dahe, Permanent Representative of China with WMO. Chapter 6 — Evolution of the issue of climate change and the energy connection droughts have had adverse consequences in a of the climate system, the models are growing in number of Middle Eastern countries, Brazil, the sophistication as they incorporate more Horn of Africa, South Africa and the area from processes. The scientific community will central Asia to northern China. In the context of certainly continue developing increasingly these developments, the Symposium provides an reliable predictions, thanks, inter alia, to more opportunity to consider a number of issues complete and precise meteorological, related to climate change. I will mention a few. hydrological and climatological data and to a better knowledge of the physical processes. First, the Symposium may review the adequacy of climate observing systems. In this regard, it is As uncertainties spur further research efforts, recalled that in its Third Assessment Report WMO will continue, through its co-sponsorship (TAR), issued in 2001, the WMO/United Nations of the World Climate Research Programme, Environment Programme (UNEP) (WCRP) to promote and coordinate research Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change actively to understand better the processes that (IPCC) called for additional systematic and are important in climate change, and to assist in sustained climate observations. The improvement the incorporation of this understanding into of the global observing system for climate change models that can help us anticipate future changes assessment therefore remains crucial for the to the Earth-atmosphere-ocean system. As the future. This is coupled with the serious concern time available to complete some of the research over the decline of some existing global for the next Report of the IPCC, scheduled for observing networks. In this context, WMO will 2007, is relatively short, the scientific community continue to mobilize all possible efforts, through should direct its efforts to key areas. In this its Members and their National Meteorological regard, WMO is working to assist in focusing and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), to strengthen research efforts on the most significant issues. its networks. These include its World Weather These include, among other things, improved Watch (WWW) for both weather and climate projection of climate change and its impact on data, its Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) for the extreme weather events such as flash floods, 153 monitoring of the chemical composition of the drought and tropical cyclones on vulnerable atmosphere, especially greenhouse gases, and its communities. We also need to better focus hydrological observing network. In partnership research on the impact of climate change on key with other organizations, WMO will continue to ecosystems, such as forests, water supplies, the support other observing systems, including the tundra and coral reefs. The deliberations of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), the Symposium will no doubt also contribute to Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) and the focusing on these issues. Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS), as well as to search for paleo-climatic and proxy Third, there are uncertainties associated with data. Furthermore, within the framework of its climate change and its impacts, in terms of policy, WMO will also continue to facilitate the assisting communities to adapt and respond to free and unrestricted exchange of meteorological climate change and to mitigate its impact. For this and hydrological data and products. purpose, the Symposium should advise on appropriate courses of action, including the need Second, as regards gaps in climate science, it is to to strive to build, inter alia, greater awareness, be recalled that the TAR highlighted uncertainties capacity, skills and infrastructure in the associated with the physics of atmospheric developing countries. These are things we need processes, the chemistry of gases, liquids and to do anyway. Climate change gives us just one solids in the Earth-ocean-atmosphere system, and more reason to act now, and with urgency. the biology of the Earth’s ecosystems. What we do understand of these processes — and we do Fourth, in the light of the outcome of the World understand a great deal — was incorporated into Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) held the physico-mathematical models of the Earth- last year in South Africa, there is the need for a ocean-atmosphere system. These models trace more integrated approach to the study of the their heritage to the early versions of numerical global system. This is especially true with respect weather prediction (NWP) systems developed in to cross-cutting problems of major societal the 1970s. With the availability of increasingly concerns and in the context of global powerful computers and improved understanding sustainability. In this regard, the decision makers Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

and the public will have greater confidence in environment monitoring with forecasting climate predictions if we can show the benefits services. I am therefore delighted to have this of developments in climate science, especially in opportunity to wish CMA every success in its the application of seasonal forecasts in areas such effort to provide excellent meteorological as water-resource management, agriculture, and services for the 2008 Olympic Games. disaster mitigation. Therefore, a key challenge that the Symposium has to consider is how to In conclusion, I recognize that this Symposium make climate services more relevant to activities stands out as a remarkable international effort in in both the public and private sectors, addressing some of the challenges posed by particularly as they relate to environmental climate change, at the global and national levels. protection and sustainable development. The outcome will benefit the nations in formulating national strategies and in implementing In this context, I am pleased to note that China is international strategies related to climate-change one of the countries that has been involved in the issues, such as the United Nations Framework WMO GAW Urban Research Meteorological Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), with Environment (GURME) project, which is greater awareness and commitment. The IPCC will designed to assist the NMHSs to deal effectively also take advantage of the deliberations when with the growing problem of urban pollution. It finalizing its work programme for the Fourth is also significant that CMA has developed a Assessment Report. For its part, WMO will World Weather Research Programme Forecast continue to support efforts made at understanding Demonstration Project in association with the global climate and its potential effects on human Olympic Games, which will be held in Beijing in well-being and sustainable development for 2008. This project aims to integrate urban present and future generations.

154 Chapter 7 WATER RESOURCES1

Hydrology and water resources: issues and priorities for the 21st century

Lecture at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting (San Francisco, USA, 14 December 1999)

Introduction integrated assessment; technological limitations and lack of resources for capacity building in Over the last few decades, increasing evidence many developing countries; and mitigation of the shows that human activity may alter the climate impacts of any climate change and other climate of the Earth in the next century. One of the main hazards such as floods and droughts. problems expected as a result of climate change is the alteration of the hydrological cycle with There is therefore increasing concern as to how droughts in some regions and floods in others. best to manage fresh water, this renewable but There is also the risk of salinization of coastal limited resource, especially in the face of the fresh water due to sea-level rise. This is a continuous growth in population and its water particularly serious consideration, as already requirements for agriculture and food 155 today we are in a situation where people around production, industrial development and other the world, especially in the developing countries, uses. At the same time, other environmental are facing critical water stress due to either not problems related to land degradation, and the enough or too much water, or deteriorating water rapid transformation of the biosphere, add further quality. An assessment of the world’s water dimensions of complexity to this problem. Calls resources by the World Meteorological are often made for integrated management, but Organization (WMO), the United Nations we all know how difficult such management is in Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization reality, especially for shared water resources. The (UNESCO), the United Nations, the Stockholm shared river basins or aquifers will be potential Environment Institute and others in 1997 sources of conflict between countries or sectoral indicated that water has become scarce in many water-use communities in the next century. In regions of the world. It is therefore becoming response, the scientific community has initiated a quite clear that the key hydrological and water series of integrated research efforts, many of resources issues and priorities in the 21st century which will most likely play a crucial role in the will include sustainable availability of adequate near future in enhancing our understanding of freshwater resources to meet increasing demands the interaction between the various components for various water use activities; increasing water of the Earth’s hydrological system. pollution problems; integrated management of shared river basins and aquifers to minimize For more than 125 years, the WMO and its conflicts; availability of adequate hydrological predecessor, the International Meteorological databases and optimum systems for hydrological Organization (IMO), have provided the basis for observations, monitoring, prediction and international cooperation and coordination in

1 Editor’s Note: Over the 1997-2003 period, Professor Obasi gave 17 presentations specifically on the subject of water resources, in addition to referring to water issues in many general presentations (see Chapters 1, 2 and 3). Those presented here indicate the wide range of WMO’s interests. Discussions begin with a comprehensive overview, from WMO’s perspective, at the 1999 Annual Meeting of the American Geographical Union. Several presentations follow which emphasize regional aspects in Africa and the Middle East, and specific technical issues related to safe drinking water and floods. The chapter ends with an address given at WSSD Johannesburg in 2002 which brings together the linked themes of water, energy and climate. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

meteorology, operational hydrology and other the year 2050 (Figure 7.1). Pressure on the global related sciences. WMO has also been increasingly freshwater resources will also be linked to active in the process of developing viable and technological development, resulting in changing scientifically-based solutions to current and consumption and production patterns, trade potential future problems, including initiation of policies and socio-economic development in some relevant research with other partners, general. In addition, pollution alters the chemical especially through the World Climate Research and biological properties of water; and landscape Programme (WCRP) which is jointly sponsored changes modify its natural flows, which in most by WMO, the International Council for Science cases add to the already existing stress. Figure 7.2 (ICSU) and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic highlights significant competition that already Commission (IOC) of the United Nations exists between agriculture, domestic and Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization industrial purposes. The global mean runoff has (UNESCO). The links between so many of the decreased to about 7 600 m3 per capita per year, water-related issues are strong, and they should especially in Africa, Asia and Europe (Figure 7.3). therefore be dealt with in an integrated manner. Some estimates suggest that the amount of fresh water available for each person in Africa is about Organizations such as the American Geophysical one-quarter of that in 1950, and about one-third Union (AGU) play a key, integrating role in this of the 1950 figure in Asia and South America. regard through their broad interest in the geosciences. This Conference is dealing with a High-level political interest has been shown for large variety of subjects, many of which are both the climate- change issue and problems linked to the mandate and ideals of WMO. It related to freshwater resources management and therefore serves as an important mechanism for its links to land management, as is reflected in promoting the exchange of ideas and experience many recent initiatives. among experts belonging to various disciplines. The hydrological and meteorological 156 communities are also actively involved in many of Water resources issues in the these new initiatives. However, their efforts have 21st century been hampered by lack of financial and human resources. In addition, the private sector, The pressure on the world’s water resources will insurance companies and water utilities are continue to increase in the foreseeable future. increasingly interested in water problems, due to This is an undisputed fact and is due to driving a growing sense of responsibility for the forces linked to population growth and environment and the communities that they distribution. The United Nations put the world serve. This offers additional opportunities and population at the six billion mark on 12 October challenges for the hydrological and 1999, and modest projections estimate that the meteorological communities, to provide relevant, world population will reach about 10 billion by targeted and comprehensive information and to

10 Global

Sub-Saharan Africa 8

4 Population in billions 2

0 Figure 7.1—Projected 2000 2025 2050 population growth Chapter 7 — Water resources

Figure 7.2—Continuing 4 sectoral increase in global freshwater withdrawals 3

1 cubic km/year (thousands)

0 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Agriculture Industry Municipal Total find innovative ways of strengthening The global freshwater availability in 1995 and cooperation with those who have been only 2025 are given in Figures 7.5 and 7.6 and the cor- recently considered as natural partners. responding vulnerability is given in Figure 7.7. Even modest projections for the next 30 years, One of the major vital components of water based on present population growth rates, cur- resources planning and management is the ability rent observations of pollution, salinization, water- to accurately assess water availability and logging and falling groundwater tables, indicate a demands. This is one of the major challenges that large increase in the number of countries that have been undertaken by WMO and other United will experience water stress and scarcity. Most Nations agencies with interests in freshwater countries that are faced with increasing water issues. In 1992 WMO, in collaboration with all demand due to population pressure and urban- 157 relevant UN agencies and many non- ization are likely to face chronic freshwater governmental agencies, convened the shortages. At the same time, the assessment International Conference on Water Resources and made it clear that water need not be a limiting Environment, in Dublin. The Dublin Conference resource for sustainable development. provided the major input on water resources to the United Nations Conference on Environment The intergovernmental process has continued to and Development (UNCED), held in Rio de gain momentum following the 1997 Special Janeiro in the same year. Session of the United Nations General Assembly,

150 15

100 10

50 5 1 000 cubic m/person/year cubic km/year (thousands)

0 0 Europe N. America Africa Asia S. America Australia/ Oceania

Figure 7.3—Average Potential water availability per capita in 1 000 cubic m/person/year annual runoff Water resources in cubic km/year (thousands) Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

14000 and quality of water resources. In addition, based 12000 on evidence from climate models, observations 10000 from instrumental and other available proxy 8000 records, the Second Assessment Report (1995) of 6000 the WMO/ United Nations Environment 4000

Number of stations 2000 Programme (UNEP) Intergovernmental Panel on 0 Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that “the Asia Africa balance of evidence suggests a discernible human Europe influence on global climate”. Computer climate North America South America Hydrometric stations models have shown that the mean global WRA stations Australia and Oceania temperature would rise between 1°C to 3.5°C, although the most likely value is about 2°C by the Figure 7.4—Hydrometric and Water Resources end of the next century. A corresponding rise in Assessment stations worldwide sea level within the range of 15 to 95 cm has also been projected by these models, associated with and a number of important international fora have the projected mean global temperature rise, with taken place calling for political support for firm a “best estimate” of 50 cm. action on water issues. Plans are also being made to convene a follow-up conference ten years after One of the climatic events that has been the 1992 Dublin Conference. It is essential, associated with worldwide occurrences of however, that the scientific community play a extreme floods and droughts is the El crucial role in providing the relevant scientific Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. background information and management guid- A number of unprecedented ENSO events have ance for all these ongoing processes. The World been observed over the recent past. For instance, Meteorological Organization will continue to it has been noted that since the early 1970s, the provide, in collaboration with relevant partners, El Niño phenomenon (warm phase) has been 158 the international forum that is required for such more frequent than the La Niña (cold phase) initiatives. phenomenon. This may have resulted in changes in the frequency and intensity of floods, droughts, cyclone activities, and other extreme Potential impacts of climate climate events in some regions where El Niño variability and change on water signals are strong. Associating some of these observed changes to climate change is still a resources in the 21st century question for scientific debate, due to the limitations of data and the scientific knowledge Many meteorological factors, especially extreme for the detection and attribution of observed climate variability such as floods and droughts, climate variability and change signals. However, can have a significant influence on the availability IPCC has concluded that, mainly due to the

Over 40% 20–40% Figure 7.5—Water 10–20% withdrawal as Under 10% The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. percentage of total Dotted lines represents approximately the Line of Control in Jammu and water resources in Kasmir agreed upon by India and Pakistan. The final status of Jammu and Department of Public Information Kasmir has not yet been agreed upon by the parties. Cartographic Section Map No. 3973.5 (E) UNITED NATIONS January 1997 1995 Chapter 7 — Water resources

Figure 7.6—Expected water withdrawal as a percentage of mean annual runoff in 2025

Over 40% 20–40% 10–20% Under 10% inadequacy of data, it is still difficult to determine hydrologists to take a climate-change scenario whether consistent global changes in climate and feed it into a basin or aquifer model and then variability or weather extremes have occurred in present the result as a prediction of future the 20th century. The IPCC Third Assessment conditions. As yet, the climate modellers are not Report, expected to be issued in the year 2001, able to provide scenarios at the space- and time- will provide further insights into the subject (see scales needed by the hydrologist and, above all, Chapter 6). the uncertainty in climate prediction is still too large for the water resource community to The IPCC Second Assessment Report of 1995 has interpret directly the data for any practical 159 shown that climate change leading to a warmer purpose. The climate modellers are now working world and intensification of the global in close harmony with hydrologists to address hydrological cycle would be expected to possibly these research challenges. WMO, as the host to increase the occurrences of floods in some places the IPCC Secretariat and co-sponsor of the and droughts in others. Such occurrences could activities of the World Climate Research have major impacts on regional water resources. Programme, will continue to provide the Increased evapotranspiration is likely to decrease international forum required for providing soil moisture. Climate change would also affect consensus scientific assessments on issues related the quality and quantity of water supply and to hydrology and climate change. These hence its availability for domestic and industrial assessments will be reflected in the IPCC Third uses, irrigation, hydropower generation, Assessment Report. navigation and water-based recreation. If such a situation were to become a reality, we need to be The impacts of the recent ENSO-related extreme well-prepared to meet the challenges that it floods and droughts on national, regional and would impose. The extensive work that has been global water resources may give some indications invested in the climate-change studies, not least regarding what may be expected to happen when in the work of developing future climate climate change occurs, leading to a higher or scenarios, should also be more actively used in lower frequency of droughts or floods. Regardless the field of water resources management. of the duration and scale of water stress, the However, science can probably not provide us climate factor needs to be taken into with all the solutions to the climate-change consideration in water resources management problems, without the political process taking and planning. The knowledge of the climate appropriate policy decisions. system has indeed improved, thanks to the enhanced research that is being undertaken by From a hydrological point of view, however, it is scientists around the world. However, it is quite also important to add one cautionary note relating obvious that much still remains to be done to to the science of climate-change prediction and obtain an improved understanding of the linkages impact assessment. It may be all too easy for between the climate system and water resources. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

If we could better monitor and predict extreme floods that often have serious impacts on water climate events, we could more appropriately resources (see Chapter 9). formulate the required response strategies. Activities should include new investments for In order to assist in these efforts, WMO further capacity building, operation and maintenance of advocates the free and unrestricted exchange of already-existing systems, and investment in new meteorological and hydrological data, including systems in regions primarily affected by extreme early warnings and prediction products. I believe climatic events such as ENSO. The rehabilitation that WMO has been remarkably effective in and upgrading of hydrological and implementing this initiative. At the same time, it meteorological observing networks in such is important to emphasize that there are still gaps areas must also be regarded as a priority. The and remaining problems that need to be direct benefits could be derived with lead times overcome. What is also important to remember is of several months to a year, allowing for the that information flow need not take place only adoption of appropriate strategies and long-term within and between countries, but can also occur contingency plans in vital sectors such as between different scientific disciplines. This is freshwater resources management and not always the case, and I believe WMO and agriculture. Events such as the 1997–1998 ENSO scientific bodies such as AGU will have to play an are also expected to recur in the 21st century, increasingly active role in information exchange as are, unfortunately, natural hazards such as between various scientific disciplines. Hurricane Mitch. It may not be possible to control the natural phenomena, but it is Whether water is regarded as a major component certainly possible to lower vulnerability to of the environment or as a natural resource to be these, thereby reducing the extent to which managed, it is essential not only to acquire basic they become disasters. The lessons from the information, but also to conduct advanced past extreme events should ensure that society research into all phases and uses of water. Such is better prepared in the 21st century to meet research must include interactions with the 160 the challenges posed by such catastrophic environment and the importance of water for events, and minimize the vulnerability of socio-economic development. This is the main national populations and their economies. reason why WMO and other partners initiated the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) in 1987 under the aegis of the World WMO’s priorities and strategies Climate Research Programme. Its main concern is for addressing the challenges to observe and improve the understanding and modelling of the hydrological cycle and energy Accurate and long historical databases are fluxes in the atmosphere, at the land surface and essential in planning the development of any in the upper parts of the oceans. In a broader freshwater resource. The resulting decisions are sense, it also has a goal to develop a capability to strongly dependent on the reliability and reproduce and predict the variations of the global accuracy of the available climate data. For hydrological regime and its impact on example, climate data, in particular information atmospheric and surface dynamics. The focus is on spatial and temporal distribution of on variations in regional hydrological processes precipitation and evaporation, play a significant and water resources and their response to role in both water reservoir design and operation, changes in the environment following, inter alia, and are of utmost importance for irrigation an increase of greenhouse gases. GEWEX is thus schemes and flood- protection structures. Timely an integrated programme of observation and and adequate climate information is therefore scientific research. essential for wise and sustainable management of water resources. Meteorological and hydrological WMO will use its long-standing experience to information, including those relating to extreme continue to provide the vital international weather and climate events, are exchanged support that is required for enhancing the regularly under the World Weather Watch collection, storage, processing, exchange and Programme of WMO (see Figure 1.7). WMO has analysis of hydrological and meteorological data also established several centres worldwide for and information. This is necessary in order to regional warning of extreme weather and climate support efforts aimed at improving the events such as tropical cyclones, droughts and understanding of the large-scale processes that Chapter 7 — Water resources influence freshwater availability and the relevant data and products and for services. The occurrence of floods and droughts. It is also introduction of such technologies, especially in important as a basis for international agreements developing countries, will require financial and on water resources development and disaster human resources. Many international reduction, including transboundary issues. In organizations, and particularly the World order to address hydrological data limitations and Meteorological Organization, will continue to other hydrological challenges, WMO and other play vital roles in promoting the use of such partners initiated the World Hydrological Cycle technologies, and support the necessary Observing System (WHYCOS) to strengthen the technological exchange and associated training. technical and institutional capacities of Strong partnerships between academic Hydrological Services to obtain hydrological data institutions throughout the world are also an through satellites and process these to meet the important aspect, and should be promoted by information needs of end users on the status and governments and international organizations. trend of water resources (Figure 7.7). WHYCOS is expected to take advantage of all technological With respect to technology transfer, WMO has, for advances (see Figure 1.12). example, established a Hydrological Operational Multipurpose System (HOMS) for the transfer of One of the encouraging trends in recent years technology in operational hydrology. WMO has that could have important implications for also established 23 Regional Meteorological hydrological activities in the 21st century is the Training Centres (RMTCs) that are networked rapid development of new technologies such as closely with major research centres worldwide. remote sensing, Geographical Information Furthermore, WMO has established some Regional Systems (GIS), more advanced computer Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMCs) for hardware and software and telecommunications tropical cyclones and extreme climate anomalies technology. Space-based technologies, especially such as droughts. A new project, known as the new-generation environmental satellites, will have Climate Information and Prediction Services vital roles to play in the next century, but they (CLIPS), has also been initiated by WMO to help 161 are unlikely to totally replace the traditional the National Meteorological and Hydrological hydrometeorological observations, especially for Services take advantage of all new developments local-scale water resources applications. They in climate prediction and information services, and offer the potential of increasing the capacity for also to improve interactions with the sectoral monitoring, processing, prediction, exchange of users of hydrological and meteorological products.

BALTIC-HYCOS BLACK SEA-HYCOS MED-HYCOS

ARAL-HYCOS

NILE-HYCOS OAC- HYCOS

CARIB-HYCOS CONGO-HYCOS IGAD-HYCOS

Being implemented SADC-HYCOS Project document prepared Being Considered

Figure 7.7—Regional components of WHYCOS Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

Recommendations and Thirdly, efforts should continue to be made regarding enhancement of human resources conclusions development and technology transfer to ensure that the climate-water-land linkage issues are Conferences such as this have the potential of adequately addressed by all nations. The addressing scientific complexities related to international organizations must, within their water in efficient and innovative ways, as a large mandates, continue to be well-focused and number of experts from varying disciplines are action-oriented and, in particular, enhance their participating. In addition to the exchange of efforts to strengthen the capacity of developing scientific ideas, I would like to encourage this countries to assess and manage their own conference to address how its recommendations freshwater resources. on water-related issues can be brought forward for action at the policy level. In particular, it is Fourthly, strategies should be developed on how essential that the knowledge gathered by the research results in fields related to hydrology can various scientific and technical disciplines over be translated into action-oriented many decades is properly used by decision- recommendations and effectively used in national makers at all levels of society. It is also part of the and international policy formulation, planning responsibility of such a gathering to provide and evaluation. Strategies should be formulated as appropriate advice. In conclusion, I would like to clear, specific and measurable goals. This is present some issues that are also highlighted in crucial if the scientific community is to WMO’s Long-term Plan and which could be strengthen its credibility and further enhance the addressed in your deliberations. possibility of receiving financial support for what are sometimes costly long-term projects. Firstly, the required measures should be taken, by governments and all concerned, to strengthen Fifthly, the scientific community must find national, regional and international hydrological innovative ways of improving collaboration 162 and meteorological observational networks and among scientific disciplines, and with important early warning systems for disaster preparedness, actors such as the private sector. These could using modern technologies. This would further include joint scientific research involving enhance the provision of data for applications institutions from both developed and developing and for developing strategies for the sustainable countries. use of the freshwater resources, pollution control and the reduction of potential conflicts within a Lastly, WMO and other international, regional and nation and between nations sharing a river basin. national organizations must continue to encourage efforts among countries to ensure the Secondly, increased efforts should be made mutually beneficial sharing of available water regarding the implementation of WMO Congress resources, in particular through bilateral or other Resolution 25 of 1999 on the free and intergovernmental mechanisms. This includes the unrestricted international exchange of development of agreements to share data and hydrological and related data and products. This other information, and joint scientific studies is critical for global hydrological studies, with shared resources. including studies of freshwater resources and climate change and variability for the benefit of The future will present the scientific community humankind. Climate impact research should be with many challenges, and it must accept the carried out not only at global level, but also responsibility. An integrated approach to within a region and at the spatial level of a river freshwater management is the way forward since basin. Such knowledge will be useful for it offers the means of reconciling competing ascertaining the effectiveness of policy decisions demands with dwindling supplies and provides a geared to the mitigation of extreme climate framework in which hard choices and priorities variability and change, as well as technical can be made and effective action taken. planning and operational purposes for the sustainable use and development of water resources. Chapter 7 — Water resources

Statement on the occasion of the launching of the African Ministerial Conference on Water (AMCOW)

(Abuja, Nigeria, 30 April 2002)

On behalf of the World Meteorological held in Johannesburg later this year, and to the Organization (WMO) and on my own, I would Third World Water Forum planned for Kyoto, like to express my appreciation to the Japan, in 2003. This Conference will no doubt Government of the Federal Republic of Nigeria draw on the recommendations of the Accra for the kind invitation and for its foresight in Conference on Water and Sustainable organizing this important Conference at the Development held earlier this month. I welcome ministerial level at this opportune time. Today’s the terms of reference of the proposed AMCOW, event is significant for WMO as it comes in the which draw from regional water and related wake of WMO’s Commission on Hydrology which programmes, including several in which WMO is was hosted by the Government of Nigeria in actively involved. Abuja in November 2000. As a starting point, one might ask: What is the We are particularly honoured by the presence of current situation and projected state of His Excellency Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, freshwater availability in Africa, given that President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. It adequate and clean fresh water is one of the reassures us that the issue of water is given prerequisites for alleviating poverty and ensuring highest priority at the top-most level of decision- sustainable development in Africa? Today, 300 making. I would therefore like to pay tribute to million people in Africa live in a water-scarce 163 him as one of the foremost African leaders who environment. It is estimated that eight African has also inspired and is heading the Steering countries have renewable freshwater resources Committee of the New Partnership for Africa’s under 1 000 m3 per capita per year, commonly Development (NEPAD). NEPAD is no doubt a accepted as a benchmark for freshwater scarcity. beginning but it gives confidence to the people The amount of fresh water available for each that African leaders have collectively committed person in Africa is about one-quarter of what it themselves to take up the challenge of tackling was in 1950. These shortages mean that in some the root causes of Africa’s difficulties. What is countries, requirements for domestic use, fundamentally new is Africa’s total commitment sanitation, industrial and agricultural use could and ownership of its development. This has not be met. The sharp decline is visible, for special relevance for water resources example, in the River Congo basin, which carries management. one-third of the total freshwater supply of the continent. The situation is getting worse as a This Conference is timely as it demonstrates consequence of rapid population growth, Africa’s earnestness in the implementation of the expanding urbanization, salinization, Millennium Declaration of the Heads of State and waterlogging, falling groundwater tables as well Government, which gave high priority to African as increased agricultural and industrial use. By development and resolved “to halve, by the year 2025, the number of countries in Africa 2015 ….. the proportion of people who are experiencing water stress is expected to rise to unable to reach or afford safe drinking water”. 18. Water problems could well jeopardize all They also resolved “to stop the unsustainable other efforts to secure sustainable development exploitation of water resources by developing and alleviate poverty, and could even lead to water management strategies, at the regional, social and political instability in some cases. national and local levels, which promote both equitable access and adequate supplies”. The To overcome these bleak prospects, I would like outcome of this Conference will also serve as to highlight a few major issues that the input to the forthcoming World Summit on Conference may wish to consider in the Sustainable Development (WSSD) that will be establishment of an intergovernmental Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

mechanism for policy dialogue at the political design and construction of the dam and its level and in its declarations for the Johannesburg hydroelectric power facilities. This implies that Summit and for the Third World Water Forum, as regional cooperation in water issues needs to be well as in addressing water-related constraints for an integral part of national water policies and the attainment of NEPAD goals. related technical programmes and projects. It is therefore essential for Africa to commit itself to First, due to insufficient observations there is the exchange of hydrological data and expertise no reliable assessment of freshwater availability in order to ensure improved forecasts and both in quality and quantity in Africa. This has warnings of flood and drought events, and to implications for sustainable agriculture, assist in strategic planning and in promoting hydropower generation, health, sanitation, peace and security between riparian countries. industry, pollution control, flood mitigation, and peace among neighbouring countries shar- In order to complement basic data for managing ing river basins. While there are some 40 000 water resources, WMO launched, in 1993, a water resource monitoring stations in Africa, global programme for monitoring the water many of them are in a poor state, mostly due to cycle, namely the World Hydrological Cycle lack of funding. Reliable observations are Observing System (WHYCOS). At present, six of increasingly scarce in many countries in Africa. the 18 regional WHYCOS projects are in Africa. The number of these stations in Africa today Those for the Southern African Development falls far short of the minimum requirements. Community (SADC) countries (SADC-HYCOS), Also, the National Hydrological Services (NHSs) those for the Economic Community of West responsible for their operation are ill- equipped African States (ECOWAS) countries (AOC- and lack qualified personnel, and only a few HYCOS), and those for the Mediterranean coastal can be compared favourably with the state they states (MED-HYCOS) are under implementation. were some 30 years ago. Even in areas with Others for east Africa and the Nile and Congo large concentrated water source, as is the case Basins are in the planning stage. 164 with the River Nile or the River Niger in the Sahel, the lack of adequate infrastructure cre- Second, there is almost no place in Africa where ates a fundamental problem for freshwater avail- groundwater does not exist at one depth or ability. The starting point of the success of any another. It constitutes about 20 per cent of the water-related strategy is the availability of water total water resources in Africa. It is estimated that data and a strengthened system of NHSs. The the regions with the greatest potential for Conference should recognize their strategic val- exploiting groundwater are in the coastal areas of ues. In addition, the hydrological observations west, central and eastern Africa where it provides and measurements are often not standardized limited supplies for drinking and for very small- since, in general, they are frequently made by scale irrigation. In some north African countries, several agencies within the same country. groundwater constitutes the main resource; Unless these efforts are well coordinated, the hydrological maps have been prepared and assessment of water resources will frequently considerable data and information are available. be inaccurate for development planning and Unfortunately, in other parts of Africa, present policy formulation. Furthermore, in some knowledge of the availability of groundwater is African countries, valuable historical hydrologi- not adequate to permit a quantitative appraisal of cal data that help in long-term development this invisible resource. In general, programmes plans are at risk of being lost. At the national and networks for groundwater monitoring are far level, WMO has initiated a hydrological data res- less adequate than hydrometeorological and cue project that will guarantee the security of hydrological networks. Therefore, it is essential hydrological data and establish national data to monitor as well as protect and properly banks. Such projects should be supported manage this valuable resource to ensure nationally and internationally. sustainable use of the groundwater in the continent. It is recalled that with respect to the Akosombo Dam on the River Volta in the 1960s, historic Third, floods, droughts and tropical cyclones are climate data and real-time hydrological data, recurrent phenomena that are known to be the collected from all countries which share the major causes of natural disasters in Africa, with catchment basin of the River, were critical in the implications for water resources management. In Chapter 7 — Water resources this context, we recall the excruciating droughts probable effect of climate change on future of the Sahel in late sixties and early seventies, and freshwater resources must also be addressed. In the severe droughts that affected nearly 35 this regard, the Third Assessment Report of the African countries in the mid-eighties. For WMO/United Nations Environment Programme example, hydropower generation from Nigeria’s (UNEP) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Kainji Dam on the River Niger was seriously Change (IPCC) released last year indicates that affected during the 1973–1977 period. This areas under moderate to severe water stress will caused a severe shortfall in power generation for increase by the middle of the current century. In consumers in Nigeria, Niger, Mali, Benin and particular, IPCC projects a reduction in Chad. Similarly, the water level in the Akosombo precipitation for the Sahel and for southern Dam was so seriously affected in 1997–1998, that Africa. Thus a more efficient water resources an electrical power shortfall occurred in Ghana, management strategy, based on scientific analysis Burkina Faso, Togo, Côte d’Ivoire, Benin and Mali. of reliable hydrological data, should be an However, too much water, resulting from floods, overriding priority. also has negative effects. For example, the Mozambique floods in 2000 caused losses of 11.6 Fifth, mismanagement of water has often resulted per cent of the country’s gross national product. in irreversible damage to the environment. There In addition, frequent tropical cyclones that affect is, therefore, a need for integrated planning and the south-west Indian Ocean countries have management of water resources and their use. In implications for water resources management. Africa, projects such as that of Fonta Djallon in west Africa, that involves integrated planning, Advances in science and technology, along with should be supported. a better understanding of weather and climate systems, enable us to provide more accurate Sixth, a pragmatic multidisciplinary approach forecasts with longer lead time for more involving the people concerned at the national effective early warning to mitigate the effects of level should be followed in water resources such water-related disasters. In addition, more monitoring, assessment and use. Support from 165 accurate seasonal forecasts, available on a development partners has been limited while routine basis, allow for improved preparedness those from the United Nations system and long-term planning to thwart the threats of organizations has been largely sectoral. Any natural hazards such as those associated with future strategy should therefore involve, from the west African monsoon and the El Niño initial planning stage, all relevant national phenomena. The Conference should therefore institutions, regional and international give greater emphasis to the need for enhancing organizations and development partners. the use of information, research results and technologies that are already available. In this Seventh, research is needed to support efforts at regard, the Conference should call for the providing adequate water resources for Africa. In strengthening of national institutions such as the this regard, several challenges have to be National Meteorological and Hydrological addressed, including problems associated with Services, and regional institutions such as the land use such as erosion/siltation; possible Drought Monitoring Centres (DMCs) based in ecological consequences of landuse change on Nairobi and Harare, as well as the Regional the hydrological cycle; and climate change and Training Centre for Agrometeorology and variability. In order to sustain research, the Operational Hydrology and their Applications Conference should call, among other things, for (AGRHYMET) and the African Centre of the publication of a scientific journal and the Meteorological Applications for Development organization of regular scientific conferences. (ACMAD) based in Niamey. Eighth, addressing the availability and quality of Fourth, climate data and, in particular, fresh water requires wider regional collaboration information on spatial and temporal distribution because Africa has 54 shared river and lake basins of precipitation, temperature and evaporation, as well as aquifers. In fact, there are 52 major play a significant role in both reservoir design and international rivers worldwide with catchment operation, and are of utmost importance for areas exceeding 100 000 km2, of which 17 are in irrigation schemes and flood protection Sub-Saharan Africa. Seventy-five per cent of the structures. For such long-term projects, the total water resources are concentrated in eight Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

major basins, namely, the Congo, Niger, Ogooue of sustainable water resources assessment in (Gabon), Zambezi, Nile, Sanga, Chari-longone and Africa and calls for African countries to identify Volta. Fourteen countries have almost their entire and use their indigenous human resource to territories falling within transboundary river develop their water resources. Another initiative systems. However, several rivers and lakes in was the United Nations System Initiative on Africa Africa are undergoing a marked reduction in flow (UNSIA) that produced a document entitled rates, with Lake Chad facing the most serious “Priorities and strategies for water in Africa”. The problem. Since 1964, Lake Chad has been Conference should therefore give clear guidance reduced to only a tenth of its original water on developing a long-term strategy that builds on surface area, while its volume has decreased by such earlier initiatives. For this purpose, the most close to 60 per cent. Although there have been important task should be to update the water several initiatives over the years that relate to situation in Africa with respect to infrastructure regional cooperation and integrated development and availability of reliable data, the state of of the 17 major transboundary river or lake basin existing national and regional centres, and the systems, not all have been very successful. current level of national and external support Several river basin organizations established available. under various agreements are inadequately financed and staffed. I would like to stress that policy formulation and implementation should be based on scientific Since the sixties, WMO has assisted countries of facts and on advances in science and technology. various rivers and lake basins such as those of the It should be recognized that weather and climate Nile and the Niger Basin Authority to set up as well as their variability and change play a vital cooperative ventures for hydrometeorological role in water resources management. In addition, monitoring. Currently, WMO has also expressed weather- and climate-related events such as support for the Niger Basin Initiative (NBI) and severe storms, floods, droughts and tropical the International Consortium for Cooperation on cyclones have both direct and indirect impacts 166 the Nile (ICCON). This Conference offers a very on water resources management. Therefore, it real opportunity for Africa to review and will not be possible to achieve the expected reinforce regional cooperation among the water outcomes of the initiative without making full use basin countries and to develop an integrated of the knowledge of present and future weather, approach for such cooperation. water and climate conditions.

Ninth, capacity building remains the cornerstone To me this ministerial Conference heralds a new of sustainability of water-related initiatives. WMO era in self-sufficiency and sustainable water supports a number of Regional Training Centres resources, if it will but follow the NEPAD spirit of in Africa where training in hydrology are self-help and partnership, both within and dispensed. In a collaborative effort, WMO has outside Africa. Many resources and indigenous also been organizing training in the assessment of talents exist in Africa. The Conference has to the quantity and quality of available water make difficult decisions now and arrange for their resources. It is, however, necessary to follow-up to ensure sustainable development of complement these with centres of excellence by water resources. At the international level, the strengthening existing institutions of higher World Summit on Sustainable Development and learning, by encouraging twinning with similar the Third World Water Forum are but global centres outside the region, and by including frameworks for achieving sustainability in water. related awareness in school curricula. To be successful, Africa has to take the responsibility for developing its own strategies Finally, in developing future policies, it is recalled and implementation plans. I wish to assure you of that in 1995, WMO, jointly with the Economic WMO’s commitment to work closely with Commission for Africa (ECA), organized the AMCOW and support this important ministerial African Conference on Water Resources: Policy initiative as a vital contribution to Africa’s and Assessment. The Conference prepared a development. A long journey starts with a few strategy and action plan for water resources steps. It is for us to start on the right foot. We assessment in Africa, which was endorsed by have the knowledge and the wisdom. We need to WMO and the ECA Conference of Ministers. It draw the right map to chart our way forward. I provides concrete measures for the development have the confidence that we will succeed. Chapter 7 — Water resources

Challenges for safe drinking water technologies in the 21st century

Keynote address at the first-ever G77 South-South High-level Conference on Science and Technology (Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 29 October 2002)

It is an honour and a pleasure for me to address runoff. If current trends were to continue this gathering on an issue that is so important to unabated, the world’s entire stable river flow all of us. Important because water is, arguably, would be needed just for pollutant transport and the most talked about element of the dilution by the middle of this century. Examples environment, yet issues surrounding its abound of practices that exacerbate the problems availability and use remain problematic. Despite of availability of fresh water in developing the fact that there is plenty of water on Earth, countries. It is known that in some developing only a small proportion of it is available for use. countries, the cities dump millions of litres of raw Although over 70 per cent of the surface of the sewage and industrial wastes into the rivers Earth is covered by water, 97.5 per cent is salty flowing through them. Unsustainable planning, and the remaining 2.5 per cent is fresh water variations in precipitation and changes brought available in lakes, rivers, permanent ice sheets about by climate variability and change are and ground water. Unfortunately, only about 0.26 additional factors that deplete accessible per cent of the fresh water in storage is accessible freshwater resources. Examples of these are for human and ecosystem use. This amount is found in Lake Chad, on which more than 11 what is available to humanity irrespective of what million people depend for water. It has shrunk the population will be in the future. That is partly from 25 000 km2 to 1 200 km2 in just three 167 why, today, the amount of fresh water available decades. Within just 20 years, the Aral Sea for each person in Africa is about one-quarter of (Central Asia), the fourth largest inland sea on that in 1950 and in Asia and South America is Earth, has lost 60 per cent of its water and turned about one-third of the corresponding 1950 into a dry, contaminated, toxic salt plain. figures. The result of this is that more than one Examples of other forms of pollution are found in billion people presently have no access to the highly polluted St. Lawrence River, Canada, drinking water and 31 developing countries, which connects the Atlantic Ocean to North representing 2.8 billion people, face chronic America’s Great Lakes. In the United States alone, water problem. more than 700 chemicals have been detected in drinking water, 129 of them considered highly Furthermore, it is being predicted now that over toxic. Another example is the Caspian Sea the next two decades the world will need 17 per (Central Asia) where rigs operate for the cent more water to grow food for increasing exploitation of oil. populations in developing countries, and the total water use will increase by 40 per cent. By 2025, In addition, available information suggests that two-thirds of the world’s population is likely to about 20 per cent of the water supplied in cities live in countries with moderate or severe water for drinking in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the shortages. Caribbean is not disinfected. This contributes to water-related health problems in these countries. Apart from population growth that continues to In this connection, it has been estimated that decrease the per capita availability of fresh water, unsafe water and poor sanitation cause 75 per studies show that each year, roughly 450 cubic cent of all diseases in the developing countries. kilometres of waste water is discharged into The annual death toll exceeds 5 million, 10 times rivers, streams, and lakes. To dilute and transport the number killed in wars, on average, each year. this dirty water before it can be used again, More than half of the victims are children. another 6 000 cubic kilometres of clean water is Tragically, in countries where treated drinking needed – an amount equal to about two-thirds of water is not available, approximately 25 000 the world’s total annual useable freshwater children die every day from illnesses associated Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

with drinking water. It is noteworthy that in With respect to the production of safe drinking many countries, poor management and wasteful water, the analyses of pharmaceutical and practices aggravate the problem. For example, in hormonal substances are mostly carried out for many developing countries 70 per cent of the preventive action. The usually low concentration available fresh water is used for irrigation, and of these substances in river water (often being most of these irrigation systems are working well below the 0.1 µg/l threshold for pesticides), inefficiently, losing about 60 per cent of as well as the fact that most of these substances withdrawals to evaporation, return flow to rivers are withheld in conventional drinking water and ground water aquifers. Moreover about 50 treatment plants, are indicative of the assumption per cent of water distributed for public use is also that these substances do not pose actual health lost due to leakage and vandalism. risk. The occasional occurrence of substances such as Clofibrine acid demonstrates, however, Taking up these issues, the Johannesburg Plan the need for continued monitoring of these of Implementation, approved by the World substances in river waters. Summit on Sustainable Development which was held in South Africa recently, agreed “to halve, The picture is dramatically different for Persistent by the year 2015, the proportion of people who Organic Pollutants (POPs) such as chlordane and are unable to reach or to afford safe drinking dioxin. Some POPs mimic human hormones, water” by means such as the promotion of disrupting the endocrine system. Other health “affordable and socially and culturally problems linked with POPs include cancers and acceptable technologies and practices”. This changes in the immune system. Typically, these poses an important challenge: the resources hazardous chemicals spread through air, water required and the affordability of the appropriate and soil and accumulate in the food chain. In this technologies that would be needed in case, the challenge for developing countries is to developing countries. obtain high-level technologies needed to detect and analyse POPs in water samples and to be able 168 The provision of sufficient and safe drinking to use complex technologies to remove POPs, water requires constant monitoring of the such as by ultrasorption. quantity as well as the quality of water resources. As information obtained from water quality Let me now address here some management monitoring networks in rivers, lakes and aquifers measures and technologies that may be used for is indispensable for water purification plants to the safe supply of drinking water. We will start choose suitable technologies and adapt their with what is familiar to us. One often ignored but operation in the production of safe drinking important measure is to minimize water leakage water, investments in monitoring networks are by ensuring that pipes are laid in adherence to essential. Likewise, the sharing of water-related good building codes and the existing ones are data and information provides the necessary well protected and managed on a regular basis. national, regional and global information base Regarding the issue of water quality, disinfection necessary for the selection of adaptable of raw water is probably one of the most technologies in water treatment. For example, important measures for the supply of safe the unabated pollution of water sources by drinking water. Chlorination is still the most “classical” pollutants calls for routine sampling of prevalent option, mainly because of the generally substances including salts, nutrients such as low technological complexity of many of the nitrogen and phosphorus, heavy metals, some available chlorination techniques, their pesticides, pathogenic bacteria and viruses. For effectiveness against a wide range of pathogens, some years now, it is known that river water may and the residual effect of chlorinated water in the contain residues from pharmaceutical substances drinking water distribution system. In as well as from hormones, especially Xeno- comparison to these advantages, the often-cited Oestrogenes and other hormone-active chlorine disinfection by-products, such as substances. These substances had not been trihalomethanes and halo-acids, should not detected earlier, as, on the one hand, the compromise adequate disinfection of drinking analytical capabilities had not been widespread water. and, on the other hand, the high concentration of “classical” pollutants had demanded full attention While chlorination is the preferred method to of those concerned. provide drinking water in piped water systems in Chapter 7 — Water resources urban areas, other low-technology solutions are Groundwater quality is in many cases affected by available at the community and household levels. high concentrations of nitrate, pesticides and One example of these is slow sand filtration hydrocarbons. Due to the slow response of techniques, which is the oldest type of municipal groundwater systems, the improvement of water filtration. Some experts claim that this groundwater quality may take decades. technology is experiencing a comeback, even in Unfortunately, this situation is further the United States, and especially in smaller complicated in many developing countries where communities, because of its cost effectiveness implementation of various known technological and reliable purification results. measures are either not in the development agenda or are at best done in a rather ad hoc and At the household level, especially in rural areas, uncoordinated manner. This is a reminder to us solar treatment of water provides an affordable that simple technology is not what is lacking low-technology opportunity to obtain drinking worldwide, but it is the will, the resources and water where pathogens are the major source of the capacity to tenaciously apply them that is pollution. This technology simply involves the often absent. removal of solids by settling or simple filtration, the placing of the resulting water of low turbidity In many developing countries, and in Bangladesh in clear plastic bottles, painted black on one side, in particular, the arsenic problem has given rise with a volume of one to two litres. The water is to enormous health problems. It is therefore then aerated by vigorous shaking and the bottles critical to provide the affected communities with are exposed to full sunlight for up to half a day. a variety of technologies and services. While the use of microfiltration and reverse osmosis is The application of ultraviolet light is another costly in relation to the income of rural relatively low-technology option because of its communities, more cost-effective solutions have effectiveness to inactivate pathogens. Other recently emerged for arsenic removal from technologies, with a higher level of complexity, drinking water using Granular Ferric Hydroxide. are the application of ozone, with its ability to This substance can be used at community and 169 oxidize inorganic pollutants such as iron and household levels. Technological challenges for manganese, and organic pollutants such as some the drinking water supply are especially great in pesticides. However, neither of the latter arid and semi-arid regions where there is a lack of technologies provide residual disinfection in the water, both in quantity and quality. Technological distribution system and thus need to be options here are desalination plants using state-of- combined with chlorination. Disinfection is only the-art multi-stage distillation and reverse osmosis one step in the provision of safe drinking water. desalting. Two such plants are at present under Filtration to remove particles and pathogens, construction in Abu Dhabi for the supply of including the increasing importance of membrane drinking water to 700 000 people. It is filtration techniques, is among the standard noteworthy that the shortage of fresh water has technologies to provide safe drinking water. High- indeed created very favourable market conditions technology solutions, such as ultrasorption for for the desalination industry. But generally, we the removal of persistent organic particles and should also remember that desalination is an peroxidation, require high technological expensive option, which can only be viable standards, substantial investments and operational where enough financial resources are generated. costs that in most cases are unaffordable by many developing countries. Another high-technology option is the re-use of wastewater, including mixing high-level treated Let me mention here some challenges in the use wastewater with natural waters. This option is of ground water as a source for drinking water frequently used in coastal areas of the supply. Frequently found substances are iron and Mediterranean. Reverse osmosis has also proved manganese, nutrients such as nitrate, arsenic and to be an essential element in this processing radionuclides, as well as corrosive components, option. It must be recognized that these to mention a few. To view ground water as a technologies are very costly in terms of both preferred source of fresh water has proven to be initial investment and running cost, thus limiting at times illusory. However, it is interesting to their application in most developing countries. note that groundwater supply is about 65 per Since ancient times, low-cost but effective cent of all of Europe’s drinking water. technologies have been used in water-scarce Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

regions, including the collection of dew water in accidental spills of chemicals and other water collection towers in arid regions of Africa. dangerous substances. In recent times, attention has been given to the collection of drinking water from fog-catching From the preceding, it is evident that the nets, a practice that is successfully being applied investment in the state-of-the-art technologies is in Chile. necessary to provide safe drinking water to the majority of the population living in the I would like to emphasize that a major challenge developing world by far exceeds the financial is to develop technologies appropriate for use in capacities of many of those countries. It is developing countries. For example, the therefore essential to promote research and Canadian International Research Development application of low- technology solutions that are Centre has responded by developing low-cost, affordable and adaptable to a developing sensitive methods to test water for country’s individual technological capacities. For microbiological contaminants, such as faecal some years now, the World Meteorological bacteria. Significantly, the Government of Chile Organization (WMO) has been cooperating with is now in the process of adapting its regulations the Third World Academy of Sciences (TWAS), and policies to include the hydrogen sulphide using its network of water centres in developing test as a standard procedure for monitoring countries for case studies on water issues. This drinking water quality in rural areas. In an network has proved to be a good mechanism, as example for Nepal, a small local Non- it will carry out research on affordable Governmental Organization (NGO) distributes technologies, results of which will be to villagers tests that cost about one US dollar to disseminated for the benefit of other developing manufacture. countries.

At this point, let me digress to stress that the Let me move on to another challenge: the provision of safe drinking water also has another conventional paradigm of drinking water supply 170 technology-independent dimension: the is that cities will build water supply facilities and challenge of providing safe drinking water is not provide piped drinking water, if not to every only in providing the supply but also in avoiding home, then at least to centrally located secondary pollution of drinking water in standpipes. Yet the fact is that in most cities of distribution and storage systems. The practice in the world, even in developing countries, and in many urban areas to place drinking water and some of the most rural parts of some developing wastewater pipes in the same roadside ditches countries, people buy bottled water. One must favours seepage of wastewater into the drinking ask the question whether the cost of treating and water system. The storage of clean well water in supplying homes with safe water is really worth drums, which previously were used to store it, when the actual amount of water consumed herbicides, is also not uncommon in rural areas. for drinking is small compared with the total use This highlights the need for technological such as washing, flushing toilets and cooking. Is it progress to go hand in hand with changes in not time for us to re-examine this issue? social practices. It is also important to address the issue of water It also needs to be recognized that water works pollution and governance. Most countries have are vulnerable to sudden changes in river water laws on municipal and industrial waste quality as a result of accidental spills of chemicals discharges. However, many rapidly developing or harmful substances released into rivers countries in Asia and Latin America show a following incidents of floods. Early warning of deteriorating trend in water quality, regardless of such incidents and accurate forecasting of the the good laws that have been passed by their rate of propagation and concentration of governments. This is mainly because of the failure pollutants are therefore necessary to safeguard to enforce the law. Failure to provide safe the drinking water supply from river water and drinking water is quite often also a result of by bank filtration. Successful examples of such institutional deficiencies. early warning services are the water quality alarm models for the Rhine and Danube rivers that have It therefore seems that a paradigm change is been built into an operational service for water required which can be termed: from remedial works and the general public in case of measures to preventive actions. Chapter 7 — Water resources

Let me outline this paradigm change. During the National Hydrological Services of the WMO past years, a new way of thinking emerged whose Members operate over 475 000 hydrological baseline concept is the integration of the value of stations worldwide. freshwater ecosystems and the cost of remedial measures. The core paradigm is that of integrated As a scientist, and more so at this important water resources management based on a gathering, I need to point out that science is the catchment approach. It appears that, for the basis for any effective technology. It is therefore a purpose of safe drinking water supply alone, challenge to ensure that we make ourselves investment in the restoration of healthy relevant and consistently responsive to the real- freshwater ecosystems far outweighs the cost of life needs of our respective communities. In remedial measures by ever-increasing investment carrying out our tasks, we must at all times be in water purification plants for the supply of safe sensitive to the peculiarity of different problems drinking water and water for industrial and and solutions as dictated by available natural agricultural purposes. More efforts need to be resources, economy, fiscal policy, societal targeted at the protection of water resources at challenges and available human resources. the source and within the catchment. These measures do not require new technologies, other I would again like to stress that safe drinking than the development and effective water is central to poverty eradication and the implementation of protective measures. socio-economic development of the nations of the world. Looking at the situation from all In addition to man-made or geologic causes of perspectives, one could easily conclude that water pollution, climate change adds to changes there are two issues that need to be dealt with in in the quality of natural waters. In a warming order to find useful and lasting solutions to the climate, river water warms up, thus promoting an technological concerns for safe drinking water. increase in microbial activities and the spreading One is the need for improvement in policies of water-related diseases. towards ensuring development and maintenance of water facilities. The other concerns fostering 171 I would like to emphasize to you that within its international cooperation that shares resources mandate, the WMO, in close collaboration with and technology. More than 25 years have passed the National Meteorological and Hydrological since the Mar del Plata Conference on Water. At Services, actively supports the establishment and that meeting, the world water community raised monitoring of water resources as well as the issue of meeting “basic needs” for water: “All atmospheric pollutants which are introduced in peoples, whatever their stage of development and the hydrological cycle. Likewise, WMO their social and economic conditions, have the collaborates closely with the United Nations right to have access to drinking water in Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization quantities and of a quality equal to their basic (UNESCO) and jointly address the burning issues needs.” This is not an impossible task, but it of water quantity and quality in a changing needs more innovative thoughts about water environment. WMO is also supporting the quantity, quality, technologies and practices for National Hydrological Services in strengthening safe drinking water supply than we have, and updating their observational networks, in perhaps, given it in the past several years. As we adopting modern data collection and transmission think more about these problems, we can also technologies, and in developing their data bear in mind the following Chinese Proverb: management capabilities. Related to this, the “When you drink water, remember the spring”. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

Keynote statement on the occasion of the opening of Flood Day at the Third World Water Forum

(Kyoto, Japan, 18 March 2003)

On behalf of the World Meteorological related to the understanding, forecasting and Organization (WMO) and on my own, I would like management of floods in efficient and innovative to express my appreciation to Mr Ryosuke ways. In particular, it is essential that the Kikuchi, Director-General of the Secretariat of knowledge gathered by the various scientific and Water in Rivers, for inviting me to address the technical disciplines, as well as the cooperative opening of this Flood Day. I also commend the mechanisms and the relief and rehabilitation organizers of this event which is of importance to structures established by the international socio-economic activities and human well-being in community over many decades, be appropriately both developed and developing countries. The synthesized in decision-making. The considerable recent frequent occurrences of floods in various efforts directed towards mitigating the impact of parts of the world have raised greater concern floods arise from the awareness that floods are among the public and policy makers. With increas- among the greatest natural disasters known to ing socio-economic sophistication nowadays, the humankind. The number of people affected by problems related to floods are not receding, flooding around the world during 1991 to 2000 is despite all efforts being made to manage them. reported to be around 1.5 billion. Economic losses due to floods in the year 2000 in It has to be recognized that natural hazards will Mozambique were estimated at 11.6 per cent of 172 always pose challenges, but it is within the its gross domestic product. In 2002, floods human ingenuity to ensure that, through effective caused hardships to more than 17 million people understanding, forecasting and management, we worldwide, resulting in almost 3 000 casualties do not allow them to turn into disasters. The Plan and damaging property worth more than US$ of Implementation of the World Summit on 30 billion. Disastrous effects of floods have been Sustainable Development (WSSD), held in on the rise in the recent past, mainly as a Johannesburg in August/ September 2002, consequence of the expansion of settlements and highlights the need to “….mitigate the effects of the growth of economic activities in flood plains. drought and floods through such measures as The mitigation of such effects and the assessment improved use of climate and weather information of various development options call for a and forecasts, early warning systems, land and thorough understanding, the best prediction and natural resource management, agricultural the effective management of floods. In this practices and ecosystem conservation in order to context, I would like to share with you some of reverse current trends and minimize degradation my views on interdisciplinary and international of land and water resources…..”. In this regard, approaches to the understanding, forecasting and the WSSD also notes the need to “promote the control of floods. access and transfer of technology related to early warning systems and to mitigation programmes to developing countries affected by natural Perhaps the first question to ask is: disasters”. The international community therefore what is our overall understanding committed itself to an integrated and inclusive approach to addressing vulnerability, and risk of floods? management, that includes prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. Flooding occurs primarily when water due to rain from various types of weather phenomena or Sessions on floods such as this one, with inputs snow-melt accumulates faster than soils can from experts drawn from various disciplines absorb it or rivers can carry it away. The variety responsible for flood management, have the of floods is very diverse as they range from potential of addressing practical complexities localized flash floods to extensive flooding Chapter 7 — Water resources encompassing large areas. Such flooding may be making forecasting of where the worst flood will associated with severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, occur difficult. Also, the ability to forecast floods tropical cyclones, extratropical cyclones, El Niño associated with tropical cyclones and associated phenomena, major extratropical fronts, monsoon storm surges depends on the ability to forecast rainfall, or ice jams in winter and melting snows their land fall and evolution as well as the nature in spring. Flooding, especially in the coastal areas, of the coastal zone. In this respect, the accurate may also result from storm surges, tsunamis or spatial and temporal predictions of floods require river flooding exacerbated by high astronomical detailed knowledge of various parameters. As tides or storm surges. In large lakes, either large most of the floods are caused by intense volumes of inflow or storm surges may cause precipitation associated with meteorological flooding. Flooding sometimes arises from dam events, detailed information on precipitation is breaks. An interdisciplinary approach to the required. This means that flood forecasting would understanding of floods – whether from rely mainly on quantitative precipitation forecasts meteorological, geological or astronomical events based on weather and climate variability or from human activities — is therefore essential. forecasts.

In approaches related to the understanding of It is to be noted that the performance and floods, it is essential to realize that there are both accuracy of quantitative precipitation forecasts positive and negative aspects of floods, which based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) should be factored into land use planning. While models have continuously increased in recent noting that floods result in disasters that affect years, especially for light and moderate human life and property, it should also be precipitation amounts, although high amounts emphasized that flood plains are the areas of the and rare events are still difficult to handle. highest development potential. This is the reason Nevertheless, the advantages associated with why pioneer settlements in many areas arose in even a marginal enhancement is so significant for flood prone areas, as proximity to rivers enhances early flood warnings, that the setting up of maximization of use of water and land for integrated atmospheric-hydrological forecasting 173 domestic and agricultural purposes. In many systems is becoming every day more justified. It is areas, annual floods are welcome as they lead to in support of these efforts that WMO is increased productivity of land and the availability organizing a series of activities aimed at of more water resources. Floods are therefore enhancing an integrated approach to flood counted among mankind’s water resources. forecasting through the coupling of hydrological However, enhanced activities in flood plains models with meteorological models, taking into further increase the risk of flooding, which in account the advances in quantitative precipitation turn makes human beings and their activities forecasting. more vulnerable to hazards. With the growing human population, the construction of more However, given the multiplicity of issues and infrastructure due to economic growth and complexity of other factors causing floods — increasing vulnerability of the poor to floods are including surface topography, geomorphic and attracting increased attention from experts in topographic structures of the area under consider- various disciplines and from policy makers and ation, human artifacts along the river channel and non-governmental organizations. In addition, the economic activities — it is often rather difficult to international community has a stake in flood forecast accurately the magnitude, temporal and events as they are called upon to provide relief area extent of floods. Therefore, engineers, urban and to support the development in the aftermath. planners and geomorphologists have to combine forces with meteorologists and hydrologists in any forecasting exercise. Indeed, models are available The second question concerns to to take all these physical parameters into consider- what extent we can forecast floods ation. However, when it comes to relating floods with societal concerns, there are a number of The ability to forecast floods depends on the type other considerations involved. These include and nature of the phenomena causing the dynamic changes taking place in the fundamental flooding. For example, widespread flash flood geomorphic unit where the river channel is events are characterized by a localized area of located. Such changes are due to human activities heavy rain within a larger area of lighter rain, and local variations in weather and climate. In Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

addition, for the model to provide reliable flood capacity of individuals and society to cope with forecasting, it is important to have up-to-date and them. Usually, the most appropriate management accurate information. For this purpose, there strategy will involve a combination of various should be sufficient financial, human and techno- options, with a view to maximizing the benefits logical resources devoted to this activity. While and minimizing the losses that result from flood- the science and technology to forecast floods have ing. In this regard, there are structural and non- been growing quite rapidly in recent times, with structural measures to the management of floods. the advent of advances in situ, remote sensing and Structural measures include the construction of satellite technology as well as computer power, dams to attenuate the magnitude of floods and the capability to exploit such opportunities is embankments to prevent flooding. In some limited in many developing countries. Capacity cases, these structures are also designed to building should therefore be a priority. enable people living in flood areas to cope to a certain extent with flooding. The impacts of these measures depend on different situations Third, how can we control and prevailing on the ground. Non-structural mea- manage floods? sures include management of the use of water available in the channel. In this case, excess Any approach to water resources management water is utilized or the flow through the channel should be comprehensive in the sense that it is controlled, based on the timing of floods. should seek an appropriate balance between conservation and use of the natural land and The management of floods also depends on the water resources, on the one hand, and socio- nature of the local flood problem, whether there economic aspirations, on the other. Integrated is already an alleviation scheme in place, the and sustainable development of water resources intensity of the use of the flood plain and the should form the basis for socio-economic state of development of that region. However, activities. Flood control and management is a key flooding can be different for the same 174 component of integrated water resources meteorological conditions if the characteristic of management. In planning for sustainable the catchments is altered due to development development, the objectives and strategies of activities and the capacity of the river to convey integrated management of land and water water downstream decreases as a result of natural resources vary according to resources and or non-natural causes. Flood magnitude and development goals of each country. frequency could increase significantly in certain regions as a consequence of increased frequency Nevertheless, ad hoc, non-integrated approaches of intensive precipitation. Any increase in to flood management could hamper economic extreme events can therefore be dealt with more growth in the sense that they may not give room effectively if countries were to adopt integrated for the minimization of impacts of floods and the flood management strategies oriented to their maximization of benefits arising from flooding. In development. The strategies have to be this regard, a good flood management strategy adequately supported within the overall scheme should contribute to the net economic of disaster mitigation and risk management plans. development in a sustainable manner of the basin in its entirety, duly taking into account the land Another aspect that has to be included in flood and water resources. Under some circumstances, management strategy is the potential impact of an approach to the management of floods could climate change on the occurrence of floods. It is include encouraging people to move away from recalled that the WMO/United Nations flood-prone areas, especially where there is a lack Environment Programme (UNEP) of resources to develop infrastructure for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change protection of life and property. However, such an (IPCC) has projected that climate change will approach also means that there is loss of lead to an intensification of the hydrological cycle opportunity for optimizing the use of land and with associated occurrence of floods in some other resources in the flood plain. places and droughts in others. Climate change is expected to cause sea-level rise with increased It is to be expected therefore that flood manage- incidence of coastal flooding. In this context, the ment options that reduce the impacts of flooding impacts of storm surges associated with tropical would be different from those that enhance the cyclones and sea swells would be greater. Chapter 7 — Water resources

In view of the large number of elements involved as flood monitoring, forecasting and in flood management, it has to be integrated into management, education and training, and sharing the overall framework of integrated water of experiences and best practices. resources management and carried out with the aim of protecting the livelihood of the people and WMO is also working with countries to assist in the environment in flood-prone areas. rescuing their hydrological data through pilot Consequently, as with forecasting, integrated projects for hydrological data rescue. A number flood management calls for inputs from the local of developing countries have already succeeded communities and experts such as sociologists, in saving valuable records and in archiving the hydrologists, agronomists, ichthyologists and data through this exercise. To facilitate data ecologists. It should take into consideration processing and exchange, a WMO Global Runoff various forms of information, including scientific Data Centre (GRDC) was established in 1998 in and indigenous, local knowledge as well as Germany. Data obtained through WHYCOS will innovative steps and practices. For international also be archived at this Centre and will basins, integrated management should also take complement data obtained from 3 200 gauging into account regional cooperation arrangements. stations located along 2 900 rivers in 140 countries. The data sets will support the activities of a large number of users, including international Fourth, how is WMO supporting water-related research programmes. activities related to the monitoring, Furthermore, WMO supports individual countries forecasting and management of and groups of countries through its technical floods? cooperation activities to strengthen the NHSs and regional institutions. In the context of capacity WMO is responsible for monitoring and building, WMO also supports regular and ad hoc forecasting the state of the Earth’s atmosphere, courses and seminars, and provides guidance for climate and water resources. The objectives of its the development of education and training 175 Hydrology and Water Resources Programme programmes. WMO promotes training activities (HWRP) are to apply hydrology to meet the needs in hydrology at its Regional Meteorological for sustainable development and use of water and Training Centres (RMTCs). Furthermore, in order related resources; enhance and facilitate the to enhance the management capability of NHSs, mitigation of water-related disasters; and ensure WMO periodically organizes technical effective environmental management at the conferences for senior managers. The national and international levels. Organization’s water activities also include institutional support, such as assistance in the In this context, WMO is working with many development of water laws. Within the countries through their National Hydrological framework of institutional building, WMO and Services (NHSs), as well as with regional and the United Nations Educational, Scientific and international organizations, in ensuring Cultural Organization (UNESCO) have jointly cooperation and enhancing capacity in relation to published a book entitled Water Resources the collection, management and exchange of data Assessment: Handbook for Review of National and information. Globally, the NHSs of WMO Capabilities. It provides guidance on the basic Members operate over 475 000 hydrological resources needed for water resources assessment stations. In particular, WMO promotes activities. WMO plans to prepare a similar manual international cooperation through its World for assisting countries and regions in evaluating Hydrological Cycle Observing System (WYCOS), a their water resources. In order to enhance project which facilitates the collection and capacity in flood forecasting, WMO organized the exchange of hydrological data. The timely International Conference on Quantitative exchange of data enhances efficient forecasting of Precipitation Forecasting (Reading, United floods, especially in transboundary basins. In Kingdom, September 2002). addition, WMO promotes the free and unrestricted exchange of hydrological data and WMO is also encouraging the organized transfer products. A number of other WMO programmes of technologies of proven efficiency to the and activities contribute to the activities of the national hydrological communities, in particular HWRP on various aspects of water resources such those of developing countries. Since 1981, WMO Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

has operated the Hydrological Operational involves experts from a number of different Multipurpose System (HOMS) to achieve disciplines. WMO also collaborates with non- precisely this goal. The Organization also governmental organization such as the provides technical guidance in the fields of International Council for Science (ICSU), hydrology and water resources management. To especially in the context of floods associated with this end, both a Guide to Hydrological Practices tropical cyclones. and a series of Technical Regulations are published. Specific issues are covered through In conclusion, I wish to assure you that WMO will technical publications and reports, which often continue to encourage efforts among countries to constitute the main — and sometimes the only — promote interdisciplinary and international source of technical advice accessible to the NHSs approaches to the understanding, forecasting and of developing countries. In the context of control and management of floods. For this international cooperation, WMO fosters purpose, it will continue to encourage joint efforts collaboration among the experts in hydrology between intergovernmental organizations and and water resources of all countries in the non-governmental organizations and promote an context of its Commission for Hydrology. In integrated approach to flood management 2002, WMO launched a joint cooperation involving various disciplines. In this regard, WMO Programme on Floods with UNESCO’s will continue to provide a framework for effective International Hydrological Programme. Also, contributions to development-oriented actions WMO and the Global Water Partnership are through optimum use of available water working on a joint project on flood management resources, disaster mitigation and environmental in the context of integrated water resources protection. This is essential if we are to ensure the management. The project considers both the welfare of humanity today and for future negative and positive aspects of floods and generations.

176 Water, energy and climate at the Water Dome1

Opening statement on the occasion of the theme day (Johannesburg, South Africa, 1 September 2002)

It is an honour and a great pleasure for me to Minister of Water and Forestry of South Africa, for welcome you all to the Water Dome today — the his unflinching support and commitment, and to day which is dedicated to Water, Energy and Mr Michael Muller, Chairman of the Water Dome Climate. Organizing Committee, as well as his collaborators, for providing the valuable local I welcome you in the name of the World support which has ensured the success of the Meteorological Organization (WMO) which has Dome. been invited to coordinate the activities within the Dome today, and of all the other The organization of the Water Dome in governmental and non-governmental conjunction with the World Summit on organizations that have worked with us in the Sustainable Development is particularly realization of this important project. I would like significant, as the Summit is giving very high to take this opportunity to thank most warmly all priority to water issues. Indeed, the United those who have made it possible to organize Nations Millennium Declaration of the Heads of these events within the Water Dome, in State and Government of the world explicitly particular the Governments of South Africa and recognized water as an essential component of The Netherlands as well as other major partners. sustainable development. However, to meet the My special thanks go to His Excellency Mr Kasrils, water-related target of the United Nations

1 Among those present were His Excellency, Dr Mahmoud Abu Zeid, Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation of Egypt and President of the World Water Council, His Excellency, Mr Ronnies Kasrils, Minister of Water and Forestry of South Africa, His Excellency, Dr Salim Ahmed Salim, African Water Ambassador, Mr Jan Pronk, Member of the Panel of Eminent Persons of the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD), and Mr Bill Cosgrove, Chairman of Dialogue on Water and Climate (DWC). Chapter 7 — Water resources

Millennium Declaration by the year 2015, an intimately linked to the climate system which is additional 1.6 billion people will have to be primarily driven by energy from the Sun. provided with access to affordable safe water, and 2.2 billion people with access to adequate The climate system also largely determines other sanitation facilities. In order to grow sufficient major forms of renewable energy, including food and reduce hunger, it is estimated that by solar and wind energy. Such renewable energy the year 2025, about 17 per cent more water will resources are proving to be of increasing value be needed. as the energy demand rises in the face of mounting concerns over the release of In addition, it is recalled that the UN Millennium greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The Summit had expressed a commitment to meeting climate has a major influence on the demand for the Special Needs of Africa. I am therefore energy — for heating, for cooling and for other pleased that the Water Dome has given high activities. priority to Africa’s water needs as was also highlighted by the African Ministerial Conference Let me now turn briefly to the relationship on Water (AMCOW). The African Village within between climate and water. As you are aware, the Dome provides such a focus. the climate system is largely responsible for water distribution over the globe. However, too In order to address such concerns and propose much or too little water can have a disastrous implementable solutions, attention has been impact on national economies. We can recall focused so far this week on major issues that the picture of people stranded on rooftops as relate to water and sustainable development, floodwaters ravaged Mozambique in the year namely: on regional integration — a subject of 2000. Much of the development that great importance as we seek to manage more Mozambique had achieved since the end of the efficiently our freshwater resources; on food civil war in 1992 was swept away by the worst security — a matter of urgent concern at this flooding in southeastern Africa in the past time in Southern Africa and many other regions century. The damage due to that flooding 177 of the world; and on nature — the challenge of represented 11.6 per cent of Mozambique’s living in harmony with our environment. In the Gross National Product (GNP) (see previous next two days, the emphasis will be on health section on Floods). and poverty and then on globalization — issues that touch us personally and the international As we plan for the future, a major challenge is to community. keep in view the possible impact of climate change on water resources (see first address in It is only right, therefore, that in the middle of this Chapter). this series of topics we turn our attention to the forces that drive the hydrological cycle, namely, For over 70 years, both WMO and its energy and climate. I would therefore like to take predecessor, the International Meteorological this opportunity to express our appreciation to Organization (IMO), have been engaged in water the Organizing Committee for dedicating 1 resource monitoring. The data have been used for September to water, energy and climate. The assessment of water resources, forecasting and links between water, energy and climate are very application to socio-economic activities. The well demonstrated in the many exhibits that have assessment has put WMO in a key position to been arranged within the Dome, especially in the assist the world community to understand the huts devoted to the theme. I will highlight only a extent and variability of freshwater resources. few. This work is, of course, all based on the efforts of the National Meteorological and Hydrological The potential energy released from the water Services which operate some 450 000 surface and cycle in the form of hydropower is the most ground water measuring stations as well as obvious link between energy and water. analysis, forecasting and research centres. In this However, the release of energy trapped in the regard, it is satisfying to see the continued atom or in fossil fuels often calls for large volumes expansion of WMO’s World Hydrological Cycle of cooling water and always requires careful Observing System, an up-to-date data collection control to avoid the pollution of surface and and distribution system in many regions of the ground water. In turn, the water cycle is itself world, including in particular here in southern Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

Africa. However, considerable efforts are still cycle and energy budget. This Experiment required to enhance the monitoring of water provides a solid scientific foundation for the link quality. between water, energy and climate.

In the area of research, considerable efforts are As this day progresses and attention focuses on under way to monitor, understand and predict various aspects of climate and energy, and the the evolution of the water cycle. One example is links with water, I would appeal to you to also the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment, a include other sources of essential energy than the project that is being implemented within the ones I have mentioned earlier, namely, human World Climate Research Programme co- energy. If we are to solve the dilemma of sponsored by WMO, the Intergovernmental sustainable development, we need men and Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of the United women of foresight and determination who will Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural commit their mental and physical energy to Organization (UNESCO) and the International meeting these challenges. I appeal to all those Council for Science (ICSU). Its aim is to present in the Dome today to address themselves investigate the atmospheric and thermodynamic to the challenges, thus ensuring a better world processes that determine the global hydrological for future generations.

178 Chapter 8 FOOD SECURITY1

Address at the opening of the World Food Summit

(Rome, Italy, 13 November 1996)

On behalf of the World Meteorological proclaimed that “every man, woman and child Organization (WMO), and on my own, I would has the inalienable right to be free from hunger or like to express my thanks to the Government of malnutrition ...... ”. The Conference’s Italy for hosting this Summit and for the warm optimistic goal of eradicating hunger, food reception accorded to us all. I would also like to insecurity and malnutrition “within a decade” has express my appreciation to Dr J. Diouf, Director- not been reached. On the contrary, in the General of the Food and Agriculture Organization intervening period, while global food production of the United Nations (FAO) for his invitation and has increased, there has been a deteriorating to congratulate him and his staff on the excellent situation, in many parts of the world, of increased preparations made towards ensuring the success poverty leading to hunger and malnutrition, of the Summit. particularly in Africa. So far, international actions to address this problem have been primarily This very important Summit has as its overall aimed at offering short-term food-aid from the 179 objective the renewal of high-level global commit- more fortunate to the needy every time famine, ments to eradicate hunger and malnutrition and to resulting from a natural or man-made disaster achieve lasting food security for all. Hunger and such as drought or conflict, strikes a population. malnutrition occur to a certain extent in virtually The current global approach to find lasting every country of the world, but the major problem solutions to this most profound and debilitating lies in the developing countries where in excess of human crisis must therefore be seriously 800 million people are chronically undernour- questioned. Clearly, the short-term remedies have ished, a large part being children who are the very failed to offer the affected people the ways and future of the human race. Over 80 countries are means to provide for their families with dignity currently placed into the category of low-income and in a self-sufficient manner. It is to be noted food-deficit countries. At least half of these are in that a solution to this human tragedy is also of Sub-Saharan Africa, with the rest in Asia and the global economic interest since people, whose Pacific, Eastern Europe, Latin America and the basic needs are satisfied, will look for other goods Caribbean and North Africa. Projections show that and services and hence provide opportunities for unless the world community is prepared to under- enhanced world trade. take intensive and sustained remedial actions over the long term, there could still be almost 700 In the light of these considerations, I believe that million chronically undernourished people by the any meaningful Plan of Action which the Summit year 2010, with over 300 million in Sub-Saharan might promulgate to reduce the undernourished Africa alone. people to half their present level by the year 2015 should focus its actions primarily on those Furthermore, it is to be recalled that 22 years ago regions most concerned and on those factors that the 1974 World Food Conference had solemnly most contribute to food insecurity. These factors

1 Editor’s Note: Climate, weather, and water resources have profound impacts on agriculture and food security, as emphasized in a number of addresses by Professor Obasi. This Chapter begins with his presentation on this topic at the UN’s World Food Summit in Rome, Nov. 1996, and ends with his assessment of progress towards the goals of that Summit, 5 years later. Between these influential presentations, is an address dealing more specifically with the values of climate predictions and improved water management in increasing agricultural productivity. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

include poverty, conflicts and refugees, migration In this connection, one may recall the effects of towards cities, trade, water resources, climate many climatic hazards that have affected a variability, and relevant national or regional socio- number of countries during the past two to three economic conditions and development policies. decades. A few examples include droughts in the In this respect, it is to be recalled that food Sahel region of Africa which caused considerable insecurity and water scarcity may also contribute damage to food production systems during the to conflicts and refugee problems. Among other late sixties and early seventies, estimated at things, the Plan of Action should address the several hundred million US dollars; typhoon Irma important linkage between food security on the in the Philippines in November 1981 resulted in one hand, and weather, climate and water on the the displacement of some 600 000 people and other. Failure to utilize scientific knowledge in US$ 60 million worth of damage to crops, leading these areas can negate attempts at achieving to one of the worst refugee and food security adequate food production and ensuring food problems in that country; and, China and security. As a former minister of economic Bangladesh have recently been hit by the worst planning of an African country once expressed it, flooding in many years, due to prolonged rain and “the economic case of many developing countries tropical cyclones. is agriculture. Agricultural production and weather are so highly interrelated that a good In order to mitigate the impacts of weather- and rainy season means a healthy economy, and climate-related natural disasters and to provide failure of the rains ..... means famine and death”. the necessary data and information for policymaking and operational activities in The link between weather, climate, water and agriculture, WMO assists governments through food can be seen in the following examples: various Programmes, such as its Agricultural Meteorology Programme. This assistance is • Viet Nam estimates that it can increase its carried out by strengthening the capabilities of food production by 0.5–1.0 per cent National Meteorological and Hydrological 180 annually by making proper use of Services and includes activities aimed at fostering information provided by its national a better understanding by farmers and other end- Hydrometeorological Service; users in agriculture, forestry and other related • Spring blizzards and sandstorms kill more sectors, of the value and use of that 200 000 head of livestock annually in agrometeorological information in planning and Mongolia, but it is estimated that a one per in operational and research activities. cent improvement in weather forecasting accuracy could halve these losses; Furthermore, severe droughts over the past • In a pilot project in Mali, farmers showed decades have led WMO to assist a number of that crop yields could be increased by 20–30 countries to develop regional specialized centres per cent through operational use of weather which address the climate-related factors which information; affect food production and security. For example, • The use of weather information in in Africa, WMO actively supports the Regional Guatemala, in support of irrigation, showed Training Centre for Agrometeorology and that yield in beans could be increased with Operational Hydrology and their Applications only 50 per cent of the irrigation water that (AGRHYMET), established in Niamey, Niger. The had been traditionally used, and that two objective of the Centre is to enhance agricultural crops rather than one could be grown in a production and food self-sufficiency and to year. improve the management of natural resources and water resources through the use of Major food security problems, however, are often agrometeorological and hydrological data and linked to extreme weather events, in particular information. In southern Africa, which is very droughts, tropical storms, floods and other often affected by severe droughts, the WMO- weather-related natural hazards, such as sponsored Harare Drought Monitoring Centre and windstorms, lightning-induced forest fires and the Southern African Development Community hailstorms. Locust infestations, which are (SADC) Regional Early Warning Unit had jointly dependent on rainfall for incubation and on wind issued, in October 1994, warnings about the for displacement, can devastate entire crop spectre of low and erratic rains during the yields. 1994/1995 season. At the continental level in Chapter 8 — Food security

Africa, the Economic Commission for Africa The estimated sea-level rise of 15 to 95 cm would (ECA), in collaboration with WMO, has flood productive coastal lands, contaminate established the African Centre of Meteorological freshwater and damage coastal ecosystems. The Applications for Development (ACMAD) in global hydrological cycle would intensify, leading Niamey, to serve as a centre of excellence and to to more severe droughts and/or floods in some provide, among other things, timely advisories places, with implications for regional water and warnings on the onset of droughts. However, resources. The risk of desertification will be in spite of various appeals, these Centres in Africa increased. While the projections are that the have not been receiving the necessary support, overall global agricultural production may not be although their contributions to African countries significantly affected, it is estimated that regional to develop the necessary capabilities to achieve yields and productivity would vary considerably, food self-sufficiency in the short- and long-term increasing in some areas and decreasing in have been recognized. The Summit should others. therefore call for adequate support to be provided to such Centres in Africa and The most severe effects, particularly in terms of elsewhere. decline in production, are likely to be felt in the very regions with food security problems today. The long-term weather and climate predictions These regions in subtropical and tropical areas, provided by these regional Centres and some are generally dependent on smaller scale national Centres arise from a major breakthrough agricultural systems and are least able to adjust to in climate prediction, resulting from research the projected changes. Many of these regions-at- carried out through the World Climate Research risk are found in Sub-Saharan Africa; south, east Programme, which led to the understanding and and southeast Asia; tropical areas of Latin predictability of the El-Niño phenomenon. El- America, as well as some Pacific island countries. Niño is the occurrence of warm waters in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean which affect weather In this regard, a number of recent climate-related and climate patterns all over the world. Until global initiatives are particularly relevant to food 181 fairly recently, climate predictions of a few security and to the Summit’s Plan of Action. seasons to a few years were not really feasible. These include UNCED’s Agenda 21, the The understanding of El-Niño enables such International Convention to Combat predictions to be made, such as the patterns of Desertification (ICCD), the Framework unusual rainfall or drought in parts of South and Convention on Climate Change (UN/FCCC) and Central America, Asia, Australia, or Africa, or the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the changes in ocean currents. Immediate benefits of Ozone Layer. WMO provides strong scientific and El-Niño predictions, therefore, go to the technical support to these initiatives. The Summit agricultural sector, allowing officials to plan should stress the need for governments to appropriately with regards to relevant activities vigorously support the relevant global initiatives such as crop planting, irrigation, yield or storage, and Conventions as part of their policies relating as well as to fisheries and water resources to food security, among others. management. Such predictions will also enable decision makers to adopt appropriate strategies In light of the above considerations, WMO would and to make long-term contingency plans to like to support the Summit Declaration, especially ensure food availability and security. with regard to the need to give particular attention to natural disasters and climate-related When considering the longer-term food security ecological changes, as well as the expression for issue, the Summit will have to take into account urgent action to combat pests, drought and the impact of what is the greatest environmental natural resource degradation, including issue of our time — that of climate change. desertification. Scientific assessments made by the WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Furthermore, WMO supports the draft Plan of suggest that human activities, particularly the Action, in particular Commitments Three and increasing emission into the atmosphere of Five, aimed at achieving food security for all. greenhouse gases, are expected to result in a However, I would like to stress a few points general warming of the planet in the range of 1 to which could be emphasized in these 3.5°C by the end of the next century. Commitments. There is the need for: Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

• Stronger support for the National of improved crop varieties and of the Meteorological and Hydrological Services vulnerability of farming systems to climate (NMHSs) to provide relevant short-and long- variability; and, the exchange of such term weather and climate information, knowledge; and including early warnings of major climatic • Strong support for the international events, for the development of contingency Conventions which aim at combating the planning of food reserves and for human influence on climate, which in turn appropriate strategies for agricultural will have a long-term impact on food activities, such as crop-yield forecasting, pest security. control, etc.; the NMHSs should be assisted to establish climate-agriculture data-bases The Summit will examine a number of solutions which could contribute to the reduction of and make proposals to achieve its objective. crop loss, and to the construction of food There is no question that these have to be long- silos or storage structures; term strategies aimed primarily at self-sufficiency. • Enhanced cooperation at the national level The humanitarian efforts of the world will no between NMHSs and agricultural services doubt contribute to ease the plight of nations and organizations, as well as at the facing food shortages due to conflict or drought, international level between but it is clear that those efforts should be kept in intergovernmental and non-governmental place only as stop-gap emergency aid. Long-term organizations, in the area of food security; solutions to the food situation, particularly • Direct long-term regional and global support international assistance aimed at self-sufficiency, for those regional initiatives which are will have to be focused on mechanisms which already in place and specifically geared to have their roots in the affected regions and the quest for food security, such as nations themselves. These solutions, among AGRHYMET and ACMAD in Niger, the others, should be coupled with transfer of Drought Monitoring Centres in Kenya and appropriate technologies for food preservation 182 Zimbabwe, and the Consultative Group of and storage, water resource management, Institutes of Agricultural Research (CGIAR), irrigation and biotechnology. A number of recent located in many parts of the world, to success stories in curbing food insecurity or mention a few. The efforts of these alleviating famine in parts of Africa, Asia and institutions must not be duplicated by new South America show that long-term economic similar initiatives; and agronomic policies, integrated use of • Capacity building and transfer of knowledge agrometeorological information, early warnings and technology through education and of climatic events and adequate international training programmes in agrometeorology, support can and do work. If the international sustainable agriculture and rural assistance is to be meaningful, support for those development, and in the utilization of regional initiatives which have been launched by climatically appropriate agrotechnology; the countries themselves must be an integral part • Stronger support for the WMO/World Bank of the solution. World Hydrological Cycle Observing System (WHYCOS) which will ensure better In conclusion, I wish to assure you that WMO freshwater assessment in all countries and will continue to assist all countries, especially the thus contribute to national water resources developing ones, in their efforts to ensure food management and the determination of the availability and food security in an potential for irrigation in support of food environmentally-friendly and sustainable manner production; in the years to come. We should move steadfastly • Enhancement of research into crop-weather towards the ultimate elimination of hunger while relationships aimed at improving crop preserving our planet. It is a commitment we quality and yield; promoting the evaluation should all renew here. We cannot afford to fail. Chapter 8 — Food security

Statement at the International Workshop on Climate Predictions and Agriculture (CLIMAG)

(Geneva, 27 September 1999)

It is a great pleasure for me to welcome you to demands could result in tensions and conflicts in the new Headquarters of the World some countries. Meteorological Organization (WMO) and to address this important Workshop on Climate In this respect, CLIMAG is expected to contribute Prediction and Agriculture (CLIMAG). The WMO by providing relief from food insecurity and, in so is pleased to co-sponsor this Workshop, orga- doing, reducing conflicts. The CLIMAG Project nized in collaboration with the Global Change was instituted on the awareness that agricultural System for Analysis, Research and Training production is highly dependent on weather, (START) which itself is sponsored by the climate and water availability, and is adversely International Geosphere- Biosphere Programme affected by weather- and climate-related disasters. (IGBP), the International Human Dimensions For instance, in many developing countries Programme of Global Environmental Change where rainfed agriculture is the norm, a good (IHDP) and the World Climate Research rainy season means good crop production, Programme (WCRP). The Workshop’s goal to enhanced food security and a healthy economy. utilise the ability to predict climate variability on Failure of rains and occurrence of natural a scale of months to a year in order to improve disasters such as floods and droughts could lead management and decision-making in crop pro- to crop failures, food insecurity, famine, loss of duction is very timely in view of the recommen- property and life, mass migration, and negative 183 dations of the World Food Summit which, among national economic growth. other things, relate to considerably reduced hunger and malnutrition by the year 2015. A new challenge to sustainable agricultural production and food security will arise from the We are all aware that agriculture and the predicted climate change, associated with the associated industries are the primary sources of impacts of human activities that cause increased food and the major employment sector in most of concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases. the developing countries. It is estimated that The WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental Panel on hunger is currently affecting one out of every Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted a sea-level seven people on planet Earth. In developing rise within the range of 15 to 95 cm by the year countries, over 800 million people, mostly 2100. Many fertile agricultural production areas children, are chronically undernourished. Over are in the low-lying catchments of rivers and in 80 countries are currently placed into the the coastal areas. Sea-level rise and significant category of low-income food-deficit countries. At changes in the space-time patterns of climate least half of these are in Sub-Saharan Africa, with would have a significant impact on agricultural the rest in Asia, the Pacific, Eastern Europe, Latin production and food security in such areas. America, the Caribbean and North Africa. Projections show that unless the world In this regard, the IPCC assessment, based on a community is prepared to undertake intensive doubling of CO2 concentration scenario, has and sustained remedial action over the long term, shown that the overall global annual production there could still be almost 700 million people of cereals and food grains could be maintained, chronically undernourished by the year 2010, without loss, or there may be even a slight gain. with over 300 million in Sub-Saharan Africa alone. However, large differences can be expected on It is also projected that by the year 2025, the local and regional scales. The models have further global population will exceed 8 billion. Then, the shown that the risk of hunger and famine may be demands for food and water for domestic use, increased in some locations, particularly for those industrial development and agricultural living in subtropical and tropical areas, and production will grow substantially, and such especially for those who are dependent on Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

isolated agricultural systems in semi-arid and arid agricultural activities. In this regard, WMO and its regions, where many of the world’s poorest 185 Member countries operate a unique world- people live. Most of the populations that are at wide system for the collection, processing, risk are found in Sub-Saharan Africa; parts of Asia; distribution, and exchange of weather tropical areas of Latin America; as well as some information and warnings. The free and Pacific island nations. Furthermore, many unrestricted world-wide exchange of developing countries do not have the resources meteorological and hydrological data and and capabilities for continuous assessment of the products are provided for under the aegis of the vulnerability of specific agricultural systems to World Weather Watch (WWW) Programme. The any set of climate change scenarios, or the use of Programme enables the NMHSs and various the information for developing strategies for regional and international centres to monitor, mitigation and adaptation. predict and provide early warning of weather and climate hazards in support of agriculture. Multidisciplinary research is required in support of agriculture. I am therefore pleased that the Thirdly, through WMO Programmes, there is International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme availability of skillful weather forecasts of up to (IGBP) and the Global Change System for about 8 to 10 days in advance, especially outside Analysis, Research and Training (START) have the tropics, using Numerical Weather Prediction taken steps to address some of these challenges (NWP) models. Prediction of El Niño and the related to food security. IGBP has, for example, associated impacts are becoming possible, with set up the Global Change and Terrestrial reasonable skill, within time spans ranging from Ecosystems (GCTE) study for crop modelling seasons to over one year, thanks to the WCRP networks for rice, wheat, cassava and potatoes. Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Modellers in these networks use climate Project that was successfully completed in 1994. variability information to calculate potential yield, Such knowledge enabled WMO and NMHSs to but presently neglect the impact of fertilizers, successfully provide early warning about the 184 pests and diseases. START has also undertaken strong 1997/1998 El Niño and the 1998/1999 La several capacity- building activities, including the Niña events and to contribute to the mitigation of organization of training workshops and the their impacts in many parts of the world (see establishment of fellowship programmes, as well Chapter 5). as initiating of some global change research. WMO has collaborated with START in some of Finally, WMO, through its three World these activities such as in the organization of the Meteorological Centres and 23 Regional and workshop on Climate Variability, Water Specialized Meteorological Centres, continues to Resources and Food Security. WMO also provide data and products which could be contributes actively to the Pan African Committee adapted to support agriculture. Furthermore, (PACOM) of START. Such collaboration has WMO has also established specialized activity resulted in the initiation of CLIMAG, which will centres which could contribute to the objectives benefit significantly from the programmes and of CLIMAG. The centres include the African activities of WMO, through the following: Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD), the Drought Monitoring Firstly, climatological data collected by the Centres such as those for eastern central and National Meteorological and Hydrological southern African countries that are located in Services (NMHSs) are found useful for planning Harare and Nairobi, the Association of Southeast and management of agricultural production. In Asian Nations (ASEAN) Specialized this respect, WMO has developed a number of Meteorological Centre in Singapore, the European related activities including the Climate Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Computing (CLICOM) system; the World Climate (ECMWF) and the Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Data Information Referral Services (INFOCLIMA); Espaciais (INPE) in Brazil. and the Data Rescue (DARE) project for developing countries. CLIMAG must build on the advances in climate prediction, relevant WMO programmes and the Secondly, through WMO, there is global experience and infrastructure of the NMHSs. In availability of real- and near-real-time weather and this regard, I would like to mention a few climate information which are essential for sound examples from various parts of the world, which Chapter 8 — Food security demonstrate the benefits of weather and climate (e) Close interaction between local scientists information and prediction services in support of and users in the development and agricultural production (outlined in the previous implementation of CLIMAG. This will section). require enhanced networking and communications amongst the various CLIMAG, as an interdisciplinary programme of groups, and demonstration projects to research, has numerous challenges and raises assess the value of climate information and considerable expectations. In formulating the prediction services; it will also require Strategic Plan for CLIMAG, I would invite the education of the users; Workshop to consider, among other things, the (f) Enhanced institutional capacity including advantages of: human resources, hardware and software for regional climate, and crop-weather (a) The availability of an optimum network of forecast modelling; agrometeorological stations and a good (g) The application of climate prediction to the historical database; rain dependent agricultural production in (b) Maximizing the use of the currently the arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) of the available agrometeorological knowledge tropics, where most poor people live; such and technology, especially with respect to applications should be one of the key currently available weather and climate priority areas for any CLIMAG initiative; information and prediction products, and, including the translation of the probability (h) Ensuring the participation of the NMHSs forecasts into information for agricultural and regional application centres such as the decision-making; ACMAD, ASEAN Regional Specialized (c) The improvement of regional climate Centre and the regional drought monitoring prediction models and the development of centres in order to ensure sustainability of realistic weather-agriculture yield models, meteorological support at the conclusion of with good lead-time agrometeorological CLIMAG. 185 forecasting capability; (d) The promotion of regional I wish to reiterate that WMO will continue to agrometeorological research in order to strengthen its collaboration with START and to provide good knowledge regarding the provide the necessary support to CLIMAG in interactions between climate processes and enhancing climate prediction capabilities on their complex linkages with agricultural various time scales in support of agriculture and production and food security; food security.

Address at the opening of the World Food Summit: five years later

(Rome, Italy, 12 June 2002) Professor Obasi recalled in this address many of the key points he made at the World Food Summit in 1996. In addition, he provided the following up-dated perspectives.

The Rome Declaration on World Food Security the number of undernourished people to half (WFS) and the WFS Plan of Action, which were their number, estimated at 800 million people, no unanimously adopted by the Heads of State and later than 2015. This objective was reaffirmed in Governments of the world in 1996, provided a the United Nations Millennium Declaration of the framework for bringing about important changes Heads of State and Governments. More than five in policies and programmes, at the national and years have passed since the 1996 landmark international levels, needed to achieve Food for agreement, and it is crucial that the policy makers All. The leaders agreed to work towards the of the world take stock of the progress made achievement of the intermediate goal of reducing towards achieving the WFS target, and provide Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

additional impetus, support and follow-up to decades, record-breaking droughts have severely ensure the fulfilment of the undertakings made. affected much of the Middle East, the area through central Asia to northern China, Brazil and This Summit is all the more timely as current the Horn of Africa. For example, the drought in projections indicate that the goal set in 1996 of China last year was the second most widespread halving the number of undernourished people by since 1949, surpassed only by the 1978 dry spell. the year 2015 will not be achieved unless It has affected 73 million hectares of farmland. In approached with renewed determination. In this Africa, over 23 million people are at risk of context, we should take into account the famine as a consequence of the continuing importance of addressing food security within the drought in the Horn of Africa and in some parts wider context of poverty eradication, economic of eastern and southern Africa. Apart from development and environmental sustainability as adversely affecting the quality and quantity of well as improved and wider availability of water resources, the droughts in some instances agricultural technology. Chronic hunger, which is expand and intensify desertification. Worldwide, predominantly a rural problem, is both a cause drought and desertification seriously threaten the and effect of poverty. Extreme poverty is a livelihood of over 1.2 billion people who depend multidimensional phenomenon and hunger is its on the land for most of their needs. most extreme manifestation. Desertification has its greatest impact in Africa where some two-thirds of the continent is As long as people are hungry, their response to covered by desert and drylands. Preserving development opportunities is bound to be dryland ecosystem productivity and ensuring that inhibited. Developing countries, particularly in those who live on it have access to safe drinking Africa, account for the highest prevalence and water are major challenges in the battle against greatest depth of hunger. These countries face hunger and poverty. Increased global efforts are the most difficult problems in feeding their therefore needed in the implementation of people, due to instability and conflicts, poor national action programmes to fight against 186 governance, population pressure especially in desertification and drought and in the promotion urban areas, poverty, erratic weather and climate of sustainable development of drylands. conditions, agricultural failure and fragile ecosystems. In this regard, WMO has continued to support the implementation of the United Nations Indeed the challenges in assuring global food Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), security and sustainable management of natural as many of its articles are of special relevance to resources are many and complex. Among them is the mandate of the Organization. For example, the recognition that agriculture is the sector most Article 10 refers to enhancing national sensitive to variability in weather and climate. climatological, meteorological and hydrological Extreme weather events occur in many parts of capabilities and the means to provide for drought the world with a negative impact on agricultural early warnings. In particular, WMO has been production and on society. For this reason, supporting the establishment and operation of a people throughout the world have become number of regional centres devoted to weather, increasingly alarmed by weather and climate climate, agriculture, drought and desertification. events, which are reckoned to have become These include the Regional Training Centre for more frequent and more destructive. In recent Agrometeorology and Operational Hydrology and years, major storm events and floods in many their Applications (AGRHYMET) in Niamey, countries including Bangladesh, India, Niger; the Drought Monitoring Centres in Nairobi Mozambique, Venezuela and in the Caribbean and Harare; the African Centre of Meteorological have caused mass migration of livestock and Applications for Development (ACMAD); the people, and widespread destruction of crops. The Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) direct and indirect economic cost of the floods in Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre in Mozambique caused by tropical storms Elyne and Singapore; and the European Centre for Medium- Gloria in February and March 2000 is estimated at range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in Bracknell, US$ 1 billion, compared with the country’s United Kingdom. export earnings of only US$ 300 million in 1999. The cost to the economy is estimated at 11.6 per The concern about climate change has now cent of the gross national product. In recent reached communities in all parts of the globe. Chapter 8 — Food security

As communities have adapted to their local agriculture and are sensitive to the extreme climate, they are sensitive to its variations, and events. many might be threatened by climate change. The WMO/United Nations Environment In this connection, recent advances make it now Programme (UNEP) Intergovernmental Panel on possible to predict El Niño-related sea-surface Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment temperature anomalies in a timespan ranging Report (2001) has concluded that: “there is new from seasons to over one year in advance. and stronger evidence that most of the warming Recent research has also shown consistent observed over the last 50 years is attributable to worldwide anomalies in the occurrence of human activities”. Human influences will floods, hurricanes, severe storm activities and continue to change the atmospheric many other extreme climate anomalies composition throughout the 21st century. By associated with El Niño. Therefore, early 2100, the concentration of carbon dioxide is warning of any impending El Niño expected to increase from the present figure of phenomenon, one or several seasons in 370 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to advance, is now being used in disaster 540–970 ppmv. Over the period 1990 to 2100, preparedness in those parts of the world where it is projected that the average global air El Niño signals are strong. Indeed, the temperature will increase by 1.4 to 5.8°C and 1997–1998 El Niño and subsequent La Niña global mean sea-level will rise by somewhere events, considered the strongest for the past between 9 and 88 cm. According to IPCC century, could have resulted in more significant assessments, recent regional climate changes — damage and losses in different parts of the particularly temperature increases — have world, estimated at US$ 96 billion, if early already affected many physical and biological warning had not been provided well in advance. systems. Based on experimental research, crop While socio-economic losses cannot be entirely yield responses to climate change vary widely, eliminated, timely and appropriate mitigation depending upon species and cultivars; soil measures can certainly reduce the impacts. In properties; pests and pathogens; the direct fact, early information on El Niño episodes 187 effects of carbon dioxide on plants; and the allows for advanced national planning, with interactions between carbon dioxide, air considerable advantages to many sectors of the temperature, water stress, mineral nutrition, air economy such as agricultural production, water quality and adaptive responses. It is noted that resources management and fisheries. those countries with the least resources have the least capacity to adapt to climate change and The progress being made in climate research and are at the same time the most vulnerable. In seasonal prediction is indeed a developing order to assist these countries, WMO has been community service, which should be translated, playing a leading role in addressing the issues where appropriate, into information and advice relating to climate variability and change, and that will elevate the socio-economic well-being of possible impacts on food security. In particular, humanity. In this regard, WMO has established WMO has been contributing actively to the the Climate Information Prediction Services IPCC assessments and to the United Nations (CLIPS) project to build on the many successful Framework Convention on Climate Change data collection, data management and research (UNFCCC). It is now increasingly recognized programmes of WMO. One of the immediate that enhanced applications of science and tasks of the CLIPS project has been to assist in technology, including prediction and early developing the capability of National warning with good lead time about impending Meteorological and Hydrological Services weather and climate hazards, provide some of (NMHSs) to receive and utilize the global climate the best solutions to minimizing loss of life, information and prediction products, which are suffering and property damages by weather and currently being produced by several major climate events. Improved lead-time of prediction climate centres around the world. To achieve and early detection of extreme meteorological this, WMO, in collaboration with partner and hydrological events, along with climate institutions, has organized Regional Climate variability and change, are vital in enhancing Outlook Forums in several parts of the world. food and agricultural production as well as in These Forums are being used to enhance the the utilization and management of fresh water, regional climate outlooks and associated impact energy and other natural resources that support projections during El Niño events. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

An example to illustrate this includes the case of and related sciences and services have been Peru, where the El Niño information has been made possible through a unique system of used for sustainable agricultural production international cooperation among nations, through the alternation of crops between rice which dates back to the 19th century. and cotton, during dry years. In north-east Brazil, WMO collaborates with a number of which is subjected to drought in El Niño years, organizations and institutions such as FAO, drought-resistant grains are planted. Additionally, the International Council for Science in the Socialist Republic of Viet Nam, it is (ICSU), UNEP, the Intergovernmental estimated that food production can be increased Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of the by half to one per cent annually by making United Nations Educational, Scientific and proper use of weather and climate information. It Cultural Organization (UNESCO), the has been demonstrated in pilot studies in Mali World Health Organization (WHO), the and Burkina Faso that, with the judicious World Bank, the United Nations application of climate information, in support of Development Programme (UNDP) and the agronomic practices, it is possible to increase Secretariat of the International Strategy for crop yield productivity by up to 30 per cent. In Disaster Reduction (ISDR), in the areas of order to optimize such benefits, WMO has co- climate, food security, water resources and sponsored the project on Climate Prediction for disaster mitigation. Information and Agriculture (CLIMAG). Its aim is to utilize the scientific advice from WMO and its ability to predict climate variability on a scale of Member countries have played a vital role months to a year to improve management and during the negotiations and decision-making in crop production. implementation of the various conventions and protocols that have been initiated to Under WMO’s leadership, and within the protect the environment. framework of its programmes, the NMHSs will continue to play an increasing role in serving In the context of the above considerations, WMO 188 humanity. These Services, charged with will continue to support the Rome Declaration systematic monitoring of atmospheric and related and the decisions to be taken by this Summit that environmental conditions and the provision of are geared towards the timely and effective scientifically-based forecasting and warning implementation of the World Food Security services, have enabled the governments of Action Plan, and in particular Commitments virtually every nation in the world to: Three and Five, aimed at achieving food security for all. (a) Forewarn and protect their national communities from the threat of tropical During the 21st century, one of the greatest cyclones, floods, droughts, forest fires, challenges for humanity is to protect and severe storms and other weather- and sustainably manage the natural resource base on climate-induced natural disasters that which food and fibre production depend, while impact on agriculture; feeding and housing a growing population. This (b) Enhance the reliability and productivity of challenge, together with several others, will be agriculture and the availability of food and addressed by the World Summit on Sustainable fibre through the judicious use of Development to be be held in Johannesburg, agrometeorological information; South Africa, from 26 August to 4 September (c) Manage efficiently their water, energy and 2002. As we live in a world of deep poverty amid other resources that support agriculture; plenty, it is vital to exploit the achievements in (d) Underpin the safety and efficiency of science and technology as well as the world’s transportation by air, land and sea, which excellent means of communication and transport, also benefit agriculture; and and the available institutional and financial (e) Anticipate and move to avert or minimize capacities, to win the battle against hunger. the impacts of desertification, ozone layer depletion, acid rain, and potential climate So far, humankind has not been able to control change, and other threats to the global the forces of nature. It cannot prevent the environment and to agriculture. These and formation of a tropical cyclone; neither can it many other benefits which modern society prevent drought, floods, earthquakes or the derives from meteorological, hydrological eruption of a volcano. However, it is able to Chapter 8 — Food security provide early warning and to contain rivers, to appropriate and timely use of climatic stem tides and to build structures that will give information and, in particular, on considerable, if not total, resistance to the forces agrometeorological factors. In conclusion, I wish of nature. Since natural phenomena will to assure the Summit that WMO will continue to continue to occur, the problems they present, support all countries, especially the developing including food insecurity and famine, must be ones, in their efforts to meet the goals of the faced, giving due priority to policies for disaster World Food Summit. The fight against hunger, planning, preparedness and prevention, based undernourishment and poverty can only be on accurate weather, climate and water data and achieved through concerted efforts, and WMO information. Furthermore, the successful stands ever ready to cooperate with the partners development of the agricultural economy of a in achieving, within the agreed time frame, the country is, to a large extent, dependent on noble goal of food for all; a better world for all.

189 Chapter 9 EXTREME EVENTS AND NATURAL DISASTERS1

Statement at the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) Programme Forum 1999

(Geneva, 5 July 1999)

On behalf of the World Meteorological and social and economic disruption caused by Organization (WMO) and on my own, I wish to natural disasters such as earthquakes, windstorms thank the organizers of this Forum and, particu- (tropical cyclones, tornadoes etc.) tsunamis, larly, Mr Philippe Boullé, the Director of the floods, landslides, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, International Decade for Natural Disaster grasshopper and locust infestations, drought and Reduction (IDNDR) Secretariat, for inviting me to desertification and other calamities of natural address the Forum. It gives me great pleasure to origin. 190 also express my thanks and appreciation to Mr Kofi Annan, the Secretary-General of the United The initiatives of the UN General Assembly were Nations, for gracing this occasion with his pres- timely because, as we now know, all the disaster- ence and for his leadership, commitment and causing events had occurred with higher support to all efforts aimed at reducing the impact frequency and intensity during the Decade in all of natural disasters, for the welfare of humankind. parts of the world.

You will recall that in 1987 the United Nations It has long been known that over 70 per cent of all adopted Resolution 42/169 on IDNDR and natural- disaster-causing phenomena are meteoro- decided to designate the 1990s as the International logical and hydrological in origin. For this reason, Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction. This came the primary responsibilities of all National about as a recognition of the very severe damage Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) resulting from natural disasters that affect the frag- are the provision of information and services for ile economic infrastructure of developing the safety of life and property of the citizens of countries, especially the least developed, land- their respective countries. As WMO works very locked and island developing countries, and thus closely with these Services, the primary objectives hampering their development process. Indeed, in of its Programmes are such that the NMHSs have 1979, hurricane David that struck Dominica had access to global data and information that are set back the Gross Domestic Product of that coun- needed for timely warnings aimed at reducing the try by at least five years. The objective set for the loss of life, property damage and social and Decade was therefore to reduce, through economic disruption caused by natural disasters. It concerted international action, especially in devel- is to be recalled that such activities were in fact oping countries, the loss of life, property damage, initiated by the predecessor of WMO, namely the

1 Editor’s Note: In many general addresses, Professor Obasi stressed the value of weather and hydrologic data and forecasts in reducing losses from natural disasters, storms, floods, and droughts. This chapter contains a few addresses specifically directed to this topic. An overview of the role of WMO and NMHSs in reducing disaster losses, given at the Program Forum for the last year (1999) of the UN International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction, provides the opening for this chapter. A typical address at a meeting of regional tropical cyclone and hurricane committees follows. Ending the chapter, a comprehensive address presented at a meeting of the Inter-American Development Bank emphasizes the value of predictions in reducing disaster losses and the key role of NMHSs in this connection. Chapter 9 — Extreme events and natural disasters

International Meteorological Organization (IMO) satellites, weather radars and automatic whose establishment in 1873 was prompted by weather stations, within the context of the the need for weather forecasts to improve safety at WMO World Weather Watch (WWW) sea. Programme; (b) A global network of hydrological stations, Even in recent years, natural disasters associated being further enhanced through the World with meteorological and hydrological phenomena Hydrological Cycle Observing System are costing the world economy from 50 to 100 (WHYCOS); billion US dollars per annum. These disasters have (c) A network of over 340 stations under the also caused suffering to more than two billion Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) for the people since 1965 and three million lives have monitoring and prediction, among other been lost. We only need to recall a few of the things, of transboundary air pollution, recent disasters caused by Hurricane Mitch (1998) including radioactivity, changes in the in Nicaragua, Honduras and Guatemala; the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse adverse impacts of the 1997/1998 El Niño in gases, and the depletion of the protective Ecuador and Peru; the flooding of the Yangtze ozone layer; River in China (1998) and those of River Oder in (d) A network of World and Poland, the Czech Republic and Germany (1997); Regional/Specialized Centres as well as the tsunami affecting Papua New Guinea (1998); national Centres of Meteorological and the forest fires in Indonesia and the associated Hydrological Services, providing routine and smoke in South East Asia (1997). The list is a very emergency forecasts and warnings of long one. hazardous meteorological and hydrological conditions such as tropical cyclones, severe A key concern of the Decade is the application of storms, droughts and floods; science and technology to mitigate the impact of (e) A series of five Regional Tropical Cyclone natural disasters. As a scientific and technical bodies which coordinate forecasts and Organization, WMO has therefore been in the warnings on tropical cyclones and related 191 forefront of such applications, especially in the phenomena such as floods and storm surges mitigation of weather-, flood- and climate-related in the respective areas. These bodies are of disasters. Furthermore, WMO has been very particular importance to the implementation much involved in the planning of IDNDR and has of relevant components of the Barbados maintained an active role in the implementation Programme of Action in support of the Small of the resolutions and decisions of the United Island Developing States (SIDS); Nations General Assembly as well as the (f) Specialized Centres for issuing warnings of Yokohama Strategy and Plan of Action on natural tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, locust disaster reduction. In particular, the WMO infestations, forest fires and other environ- Congress, the highest policy-making body of the mental hazards; and Organization, adopted in 1991 a Plan of Action (g) A network of 23 Regional Meteorological for the IDNDR. In this connection, WMO Training and Research Centres. For continues to give high priority to the collection, example, during the Decade, WMO processing and exchange of data on natural specifically organized training courses for hazards of meteorological and hydrological over 1 000 meteorologists in tropical origins, for national, regional and global use, cyclone forecasting and offered over 3 000 particularly for the security of property and safety fellowships on subjects related to disaster of life. The infrastructure maintained by WMO mitigation. and the NMHSs for generating data and information in support of natural disaster In order to enhance the capacities of National reduction include the following: Meteorological and Hydrological Services to provide timely warnings and advisories of (a) A global network of about 10 000 surface weather- and climate-related natural disasters stations, 700 ocean buoys, 7 300 ships and such as tropical cyclones and droughts, WMO has 1 000 upper air stations, complemented by provided, during the Decade period, over 45 000 aircraft observations per day approximately US$ 200 million of technical and those from a constellation of ten geosta- assistance in support of national and regional tionary and polar-orbiting meteorological development projects. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

In addition to the long-term activities, WMO has minimizing the negative consequences of natural developed and implemented the following disasters on water resource management, energy projects, specially geared to the goals of the use, transportation, agricultural production and IDNDR: many other socio-economic activities.

• Tropical Cyclone Warning System for the In addition, intensive monitoring and data collec- South-West Indian Ocean region – to tion of the equatorial central and eastern Pacific upgrade substantially the warning system Ocean, carried out during the Tropical Ocean through the application of meteorological and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Project satellite and computer technology, and the (1985–1994), resulted in a breakthrough of transfer of scientific knowledge; knowledge in El Niño prediction. These develop- • Comprehensive Risk Assessment – to ments in El Niño prediction of a few seasons to a promote a comprehensive approach to risk year ahead have been successfully used in many assessment in order to help reduce loss of regions for early warning of El Niño-related life and property caused by flooding and extreme weather and climate events and the other natural disasters; associated socio-economic impacts. Such predic- • System for Technology Exchange for Natural tion capabilities now form crucial components of Disasters (STEND) – to identify and facilitate early warning and disaster preparedness activi- the transfer of technology for use in ties in many regions of the world where strong El reducing the impact of natural disasters. In Niño signals have been detected. In this regard, addition, WMO’s Hydrological Operational the International Seminar on the 1997/1998 El Multipurpose System (HOMS) helps in Niño event: Evaluation and Projections, held in technology transfer related to flood Ecuador in 1998, recognized the importance of forecasting; such capabilities in support of sustainable devel- • The development, jointly with the opment. It is to be recalled that the 1997/1998 El International Council for Science (ICSU), of a Niño caused global damage of at least US$ 34 192 pilotless aircraft to improve the observation billion. That Seminar also agreed on the need for of tropical cyclones. the establishment of an International El Niño Centre which Ecuador is prepared to host (see Furthermore, the WMO World Weather Watch Chapter 5). network also supports other comprehensive early warning programmes dedicated to specific It is to be noted, however, that the performance hazards, such as the communication of informa- of the new generation of climate models used in tion and warnings about volcanic ash clouds in seasonal prediction needs further improvement cooperation with International Civil Aviation in some regions of the world, such as in the Organization (ICAO), dissemination of tsunami tropics, where relatively more research has to be warnings in cooperation with UNESCO’s carried out and where the networks of surface Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission and upper-air observations are often sparse. In (IOC), and the communication of information addition, considerable research is still required to about nuclear accidents, in cooperation with the fully understand the processes involved in the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). WMO space-time evolution of most of the systems has also collaborated with the World Tourism which result in natural disasters, especially those Organization in the preparation and publication of which are local or sub-regional in nature such as a handbook on natural disaster reduction in tourist hailstorms, lightning, thunderstorms and areas. tornadoes.

The advent of increasingly powerful computers, A scientific challenge for the next century is to improved observational capacity using satellite- further explore and enhance those advances in based sensors, telecommunications and enhanced science and technology relevant to the mitigation research efforts have led to improved understand- of natural disasters. To date, the prediction of ing and prediction of weather and climate weather-related disasters with good lead-time and systems. Such advances have enabled the provi- adequate preparedness is still the best disaster sion of skillful weather forecasts and warnings of mitigation option. Indeed, studies of the up to about 10 days in advance in the extra-tropi- economies of disasters showed that for every cal regions. Such information has been useful in dollar spent on prevention and preparedness, Chapter 9 — Extreme events and natural disasters between US$ 100 and 1 000 are required for an Firstly, the need to critically assess the current equivalent effect after a disaster. In addition, it is state of the science and technology used in natural not possible to attach a monetary value on the life disaster reduction and prevention, identifying of a human being. improvements made during the Decade and, most importantly, making suggestions for future opera- In its efforts to continually improve the capability tional and research programmes to ensure of skillful prediction of weather and climate continued progress. Some of the areas of focus including natural disaster-causing events, WMO, should include the enhancement of current scien- in collaboration with the IOC of UNESCO and tific ability to forecast geophysical events that ICSU, has been implementing a Climate cause natural disasters, and the strengthening of Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) project scientific and technological infrastructure, includ- under the World Climate Research Programme. ing observational networks, to support nations in The project is building upon the achievements of natural disaster mitigation. Particular emphasis TOGA. Also, WMO Congress has recently should be placed on existing national, regional and instituted a new research project entitled World international capacities to determine vulnerability, Weather Research Programme mainly to better undertake preparedness actions, provide warnings understand the intensive weather phenomena and promote awareness through public education that are responsible for disasters. programmes.

Intensive weather and climate phenomena that Secondly, the Forum might wish to propose how result in natural disasters constitute a normal best the regional centres, especially those in devel- component of the global climate system. They oping countries, which monitor and provide early have occurred in the past and will continue to warnings should be further supported. As many of occur in the future. What will be required is to the disasters have regional and global dimensions, further understand their nature. For instance, it the resources required are beyond the capacity of has been noted that since the early 1970s, El Niño many countries. A good example of the global phenomena have been more frequent than La dimension of natural disasters is the worldwide 193 Niña. Associating some of these observed occurrence of extreme weather, hydrological and extremes to global warming is still a question of climate events, causing disasters which are scientific debate, due to limitations of data and observed during El Niño/La Niña episodes. In this the scientific knowledge for the detection and connection, an El Niño International Centre could attribution of observed climate variability and be established, to be hosted by Ecuador as earlier climate change signals. indicated.

The Second Assessment Report of the [Note: The El Niño Centre (CIIFEN) was inaugu- WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental Panel on Climate rated in Guayaquil, Ecuador in January 2003] Change (IPCC), issued in 1995, contains an assessment of the impact of climate change on Thirdly, as the major early warning tools in the phenomena that can result in natural disasters. 20th century were products of research, including While more research is required, it is expected the current ability to provide skillful prediction of that a warmer climate will result in a more El Niño, the Forum should propose how best to intense hydrological cycle leading to increased enhance support for continued research at the drought conditions in some areas and floods in national, regional and global levels. WMO will others. The Third IPCC Assessment Report, continue to provide the international coordination which is expected to be issued in the year 2001, of relevant research through its Atmospheric will provide further insights into the subject. Research and Environment and its World Climate Programmes to enable the scientific community This Forum is expected to propose a cost- and all Member countries to maximize the benefits effective strategy as well as guidelines and a from all research results which may be useful for programme of action for a coordinated and early warning and disaster preparedness. comprehensive approach to the reduction of the impact of natural disasters, as a contribution to Fourthly, there is a need to identify an intergovern- sustainable development in the 21st century. In mental mechanism for addressing earthquakes and undertaking these tasks, the Forum should take volcanic eruptions so that the occurrence of these the following into account: phenomena are better addressed. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

The implementation of the action plans for the been made during the Decade, much more Decade has resulted in significant awareness for remains to be done. In some circles, it is still enhanced collaboration between the scientific and believed that the answer to such questions is in technical agencies and the humanitarian and the enhancement of humanitarian assistance. development agencies, particularly within the This belief is based on the philosophy that nat- United Nations System. In our view, the humani- ural disasters are acts of God and not much can tarian and development components have to be be done about them. Our view is that science coordinated by the Office for the Coordinator of and technology can make the required differ- Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and the United ence. This is the case with Bangladesh where in Nations Development Programme (UNDP), while 1970 about 300 000 people lost their lives the scientific and technical aspects is to be coordi- when struck by a tropical cyclone. A similar nated by an Inter-Agency Secretariat supported by intense cyclone that struck in 1994 caused a all relevant UN Specialized Agencies and loss of less than 500 people due to enhance- Programmes. Such an arrangement will ensure the ment of scientific and technological support in enhancement of the scientific and technical mitigation efforts. programmes in support of the mitigation of natural disasters. I hope therefore that this Forum will look back on the significant difference made by science and As we move into the next millennium, there technology over the Decade period and formulate, will be increasing concern as to how to more with conviction, appropriate strategies to address effectively address the wide-ranging effects of the related concerns of humanity in the 21st natural disasters. Although some progress has century.

194 Statement at the opening of the Second Joint Session of the WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones and the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee

(Phuket, Thailand, 20 February 1997)

It is indeed an honour and a privilege for me to WMO, for the excellent arrangements made to address the opening ceremony of the second ensure the success of the session. Joint Session of the Typhoon Committee and the Panel on Tropical Cyclones for the Bay of Bengal I would like to thank the Governments of the and the Arabian Sea. I wish to take this Philippines and Thailand for their support to the opportunity to extend a warm welcome to all Typhoon Committee and the Panel respectively, participants and to express my deep appreciation, by hosting their two Secretariats and providing and that of the World Meteorological the services of coordinators, meteorologists and Organization (WMO), to the Government and experts. Special thanks go to the Government of people of Thailand for hosting, for the second Bangladesh which hosted the Technical Support time, the joint session of these two Unit (TSU) of the Panel from 1985 until its intergovernmental tropical cyclone bodies — first transfer to Bangkok in December 1996, and to the in Pattaya in 1992 and now in the beautiful resort Governments of Japan and the Republic of Korea of Phuket. It is indeed fitting that Thailand is for the secondment of full-time hydrologists to hosting the joint session, as a Member of both the the Typhoon Committee Secretariat (TCS). I Typhoon Committee and the Panel on Tropical would also like to take this opportunity to extend Cyclones. I wish to thank Mr Smith Tumsaroch, the thanks of WMO to the United Nations Director of the Thai Meteorological Department Economic Commission for Asia and the Pacific and Permanent Representative of Thailand with (ESCAP) for its long-standing close cooperation Chapter 9 — Extreme events and natural disasters and support to the activities of both of these WMO has also been intensifying its efforts in the intergovernmental bodies. mitigation of tropical cyclones, as part of its involvement in the International Decade for Tropical cyclones are among the most destructive Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). Global of all natural hazards, causing considerable efforts, especially within the context of the human suffering in about 70 countries around the Tropical Cyclone Programme, have resulted in a globe. During the past 20 years these storms have noticeable improvement in the warning systems in been responsible for the death of over half a many parts of the world, and it is evident that million people and affected about 150 million where adequate warning and preparedness people worldwide. An average of 80 tropical systems are instituted, many lives can be saved and cyclones form annually over tropical oceans, of up to 40 per cent of the property damage can be which 30 occur in the typhoon region of the averted. For example, the decrease in the death western North Pacific, easily the most active toll in Bangladesh, from about 130 000 to 500, ocean basin in the world. While the average for caused by similar tropical cyclones in 1991 and the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea is only five, 1994, respectively, was attributed in large part, by some of the most destructive of these storms government sources, to improvements in the have occurred in that region, such as the severe warning and evacuation systems. tropical cyclone in Bangladesh in 1970 which claimed 300 000 lives. Looking at just a few of the Fundamental to the improvements in the two 1996 examples for the two regions, we recall that regions have been: Typhoon Herb, which struck Fuqing City in China during August, caused 55 deaths and • The application of the knowledge gained approximately 4.6 billion Yuan (about from research and field experiments in the US$ 550 million) in economic losses. Several region (e.g. the Typhoon Committee hundred were killed by a tropical cyclone which Operation Experiment (TOPEX) and the hit Andhra Pradesh in India during November. As Special Experiment Concerning Typhoon an unusual occurrence, Tropical Storm Greg hit Recurvature and Unusual Movement 195 the north-west coast of Sabah State in Malaysia on (SPECTRUM)); 27 December, with news reports of 170 persons • Implementation of components of the dead and over 100 missing. operational and technical plans of the Panel and the Typhoon Committee, including Such unusual tracks and increasing incidence of those pertaining to the WMO World Weather tropical cyclones in some areas often lead to Watch; questions about the possible impact of climate • Improved warning delivery services to the change on tropical cyclones, as this may have public. Deserving special mention in this major human and economic consequences in the regard are the major efforts of the two future. However, while global warming is Regional/Specialized Meteorological Centres expected to have major impacts in terms of sea- (RSMCs) in New Delhi and Tokyo, which level rise, regional water resources and local crop provide monitoring, forecasting, real-time production, among other things, there is as yet no guidance and advisory information services definitive scientific evidence that there would be on the tropical cyclones in their respective changes in the occurrence or intensity of tropical regions. cyclones. This is an important subject for study in the years to come. However, in spite of these improvements, the threat persists. In addition, the tropical cyclone To promote and coordinate efforts to minimize forecasting and warning services of some tropical cyclone damage in the western North Member countries in the region are still Pacific and the northern Indian Ocean regions, inadequate to ensure the safety of their citizens. WMO and ESCAP established the Typhoon This is an area of particular concern to WMO and Committee in 1964 and the Panel on Tropical should be given greater attention by the Panel Cyclones for the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea and the Typhoon Committee. In this regard, this in 1971. WMO has also established similar tropical joint session offers a valuable opportunity for the cyclone bodies for all the other tropical oceanic exchange of views on the successes and areas around the world, as part of its Tropical problems experienced by the two adjacent TCP Cyclone Programme (TCP) (see Figure 1.14). bodies, and to develop appropriate strategies for Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

coordinated actions to upgrade tropical cyclone improving, though not rapidly. There is clearly an forecasts and warning services in both regions, urgent need to speed up the progress and including the RSMC operations. To this end, improve the accuracy and reliability of cyclone WMO has been encouraging close cooperation forecasts, particularly of unusual movement, between the Panel and Typhoon Committee, sudden changes in intensity, and long-range such as joint training ventures, including a position forecasts, with increased lead time to Workshop on the Management Overview of allow for improved response by the public. Flood Forecasting Systems (MOFFS) in Seoul, Additionally, the interaction between the Republic of Korea, from 19 to 21 March 1997, National Meteorological and Hydrological and a Workshop on Doppler Tropical Cyclone Services and the national agencies concerned Radars, tentatively planned for Thailand in April with disaster prevention and preparedness has to 1998. be further strengthened in order to increase the effectiveness of the warning system and national One of the major strengths of the Typhoon disaster mitigation measures. Committee over the years has been the fact that the main funding for its Regional Cooperation In this regard, a number of activities need to be Programme has come from the contributions of promoted in the context of the programmes of the Member countries themselves, through the the Panel and the Typhoon Committee. I wish to operation of a Trust Fund. In the last few years, a refer to a few specific activities, namely: similar fund was established by the Panel Member countries. This effort at self-reliance should be • The improvement of the meteorological encouraged. However, development partners observing networks and systems, such as the should also provide the assistance needed to installation of buoys and tide gauges, effectively implement the programmes which automatic weather stations and satellite data cannot be funded nationally. In this connection, I receiving stations; future efforts should would like to thank the UNDP for its support. It is include the reception of Special Sensor 196 also important that other sources of extra- Microwave imagery (SSM/l); budgetary funding be tapped, such as bilateral • The installation and upgrading of flood arrangements and Technical Cooperation among forecasting systems in river basins, and the Developing Countries (TCDC). WMO will monitoring of these systems using the continue to assist the Directors of National Management Overview of Flood Forecasting Meteorological and Hydrological Services Systems (MOFFS); (NMHSs) in seeking funds for projects in the • The greater use of two-dimensional depth- region from other sources such as regional average numerical storm-surge models with financial institutions. However, it should be high resolution bathymetry and topography; noted that the primary responsibility for initiating • The increased exchange of information and resource mobilization and taking follow-up action knowledge between the operational and rests with the Directors themselves. research communities (an appropriate avenue for such an exchange is the series of In this regard, as you are aware, WMO is assisting International Workshops on Tropical the countries concerned in accessing resources Cyclones (IWTC), organized by WMO and from the Asian Development Bank and major the International Council of Scientific Unions donor countries for a project proposal entitled (ICSU)); “Integrated System for the Mitigation of Typhoon, • The application of meteorological research Flood and Environmental Disasters in the Western results to operational uses (one example is North Pacific Area”. WMO is also actively the use of ensemble forecast techniques to involved in the establishment of a joint storm- tropical cyclone track forecasting); surge project for the Bay of Bengal and the • The continuing emphasis on tropical cyclone Arabian Sea, for which it is collaborating with the and storm surge training through courses, governments concerned and other international seminars, workshops, exchange programmes, organizations in exploring ways of obtaining study tours and on the job training; extra-budgetary funding. • The improvement, with the cooperation of other agencies, of disaster prevention and In general, the accuracy of track forecasts and the preparedness arrangements and measures, timeliness of warnings have been steadily including risk assessment, evacuation, Chapter 9 — Extreme events and natural disasters

dissemination and response to warnings, and In closing, I would like to thank the public education; meteorologists should Government of Thailand once again for hosting promote and assist in the development or this second joint session and for its kind upgrade of building codes to account for invitation to me. I wish you a very successful tropical cyclones. session.

Forecasting natural disasters to mitigate their effects

Lecture at the Inter-American Development Bank Conference on “Confronting Natural Disasters: A Matter of Development” (New Orleans, USA, 25 March 2000)

Introduction Forecasting is an indispensable component of preparedness and response phases of natural As announced, one of the purposes of this disaster reduction. In the preparedness phase conference is “to examine ways to reduce the (pre-disaster activities intended to increase the institutional vulnerability of Member nations” in effectiveness of emergency response during a respect of natural disasters. In this context, it is disaster), forecasts and warnings, if reliable and envisaged that the Conference will consider provided with sufficient advance notice, can possible actions that the Inter-American obviously play a key role in saving human life Development Bank (IADB) had proposed to and/or reducing property damage. In the undertake in Member countries. These actions response phase (activities undertaken include: immediately prior to and during the impact or the acute phase of an event), updated forecasts are (a) Defining an effective strategy to reduce equally — if not more — important. 197 long-term and recurrent risk; (b) Strengthening capacity to implement the In this presentation, the status of the science and strategy; operational systems for hydrometeorological (c) Building national systems for disaster disaster forecasting will be summarized, prevention and mitigation; and, particularly the forecasting of the most frequent (d) Enhancing inter-agency coordination. and devastating forms of disasters to hit Latin American and Caribbean countries, namely: The formulation and implementation of the tropical storms (including hurricanes), tornadoes, proposed actions by the Bank, especially in floods and droughts. In this respect, special respect of (c), require the establishment and oper- emphasis will be placed on the activities of the ation of internationally coordinated national and National Meteorological and Hydrological regional systems for monitoring and forecasting Services (NMHSs), which should constitute a natural disasters. Such systems represent a cost- critically important part of any national disaster effective way to reduce vulnerability. In this prevention and mitigation system as envisaged by respect, whilst dealing mainly with natural disas- the IADB. ters of hydrometeorological origin, WMO is also engaged in promoting: Hydrometeorological disasters: (a) The development of integrated systems of some facts disaster management, which include hydrometeorological aspects of disaster Globally, over 70 per cent of natural disasters are preparedness, warning, relief and related to weather and climate, but in some coun- rehabilitation; and tries or regions, the disasters of (b) Scientific studies including comprehensive hydrometeorological origin account for the totality risk assessment. It is in this spirit that the part- of natural disasters. As can be seen from Figure nership of WMO with the IADB, to support 1.20, during the period 1963-1992 tropical the Member countries in Latin America and cyclones, floods, landslides and droughts account the Caribbean is being developed. for more than 50 per cent of fatalities, 80 per cent Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

of persons affected by natural disasters, and over coasts of Ecuador and northern Peru received 80 per cent of those disasters responsible for 350-775 mm of rain, compared to the normal significant damage. According to the Munich 20-60 mm. Torrential rains were recorded in Reinsurance Company (IDNDR, 1999), in only one southern Brazil, southeastern Paraguay, most of year (1998), over 14 000 deaths in the Americas Uruguay, and parts of northeastern Argentina were caused by 112 storms and 38 floods, and (UNEP, 1999). Devastating floods and mudslides economic losses resulting from these events in the Caracas area in Venezuela caused over exceeded US$ 35 billion. The 1998 Atlantic hurri- 20 000 deaths in December 1999. cane season, more active than normal, brought 14 tropical storms (the average number is 10), of In addition the impacts of droughts, including which 10 became hurricanes (with wind speeds of those in the central United States, northern more than 119 km per hour), including three Mexico, northeast Brazil and Guyana, as well as major hurricanes (with wind speeds of more than large-scale forest fires in Colombia, Brazil, Central 178 km per hour). They inflicted US$ 7.3 billion in America and Mexico should be mentioned. damages and caused 23 fatalities in the United States alone (US Department of Commerce, 1999). Overall, the frequency and impacts of natural Among the most devastating hurricanes of all disasters are estimated to be increasing. Losses times were Hurricanes Georges (September 1998) from natural disasters over the decade 1986–1995 and Mitch (October 1998). Hurricane Mitch alone were eight times higher than in the 1960s; and led to about 9 000 deaths in Nicaragua and unless major efforts are deployed to counteract Honduras and seriously affected their develop- the impact of such disasters, this tendency will ment plans. In Guatemala, El Salvador and Costa most probably continue. Within these efforts, Rica, the impact was less devastating, but never- forecasting of the occurrence, intensity, time and theless very significant. space scales of hydrometeorological disasters should be given priority attention. The last Atlantic hurricane season, which closed 198 on 30 November 1999, was marked by an above average number of tropical storms (12), five of Science and technology of which became major hurricanes. Among these, disaster forecasting hurricanes Floyd (September 1999) and Irene (October 1999) caused widespread and severe The impacts of natural disasters related to meteo- flooding. Large areas of the Americas are prone to rological and hydrological phenomena can be extremely heavy rainfall and associated regional or even global in scope. The spatial and landslides. Table 9.1 highlights the regional and temporal scales of these disasters vary widely from global impacts of the strong 1997–1998 El Niño short-lived, violent phenomena of limited extent, event. For example, in December 1997 and including tornadoes, flash floods and severe thun- January 1998, during the 1997-1998 El Niño, the derstorms, through to large systems, such as

Region Direct loss Mortality Morbidity Affected Displaced US$ (in millions)

AFRICA 118 m 15 246 107 301 10 400 000 2 217 200

ASIA 3 220 m 6 018 124 647 33 719 719 318 700

ASIA 5 331 m 1 317 57 546 66 113 666 90 000 PACIFIC

NORTH 6 462 m 542 Incomplete 41 100 400 000 AMERICA Table 9.1—Global and SOUTH 18 068 m 997 243 743 723 033 363 000 regional impacts of the AMERICA 1997-1998 El Niño event TOTAL 33 199 m 24 120 533 237 110 997 518 3 388900 (Source:NOAA/OGP 1998) Chapter 9 — Extreme events and natural disasters tropical and extratropical cyclones with life cycles satellites, radars, stream gauges, automatic of several days. At the largest scale are widespread weather stations and observers. The greatest droughts, which may affect vast areas for months difficulty in providing effective warnings of these to years. Forecasting of these phenomena there- small-scale events is the usually very short lead- fore requires techniques applicable to very time available to warn the public. The short-term forecasts, for example, for from less establishment of a comprehensive system for the than one hour or even nowcasts for tornadoes to issuance of forecasts and warnings, which those for seasonal and interannual time-scales for comprises observing and data collection systems, droughts and major floods which may be associ- visualization, analysis and modelling tools and ated with the El Niño phenomenon. adequate telecommunication networks, is therefore absolutely essential. The establishment of major weather forecasting centres and the systematic monitoring of the Forecasts of the behaviour of larger, synoptic- atmosphere and, to a certain extent the oceans, scale weather systems such as tropical storms and have enabled NMHSs to provide information extratropical cyclones are now made available related to the threat of weather- and climate- several days in advance. Prediction of these induced disasters such as hurricanes, floods, systems and of the associated phenomena is made droughts, severe storms, forest fires, frosts, heat using numerical computer models. Weather waves and cold spells (Obasi, 2000). In the forecasts of up to eight days in advance can now United States, for example, improved forecasts of be provided for the middle-latitude countries. As hurricanes with effective dissemination and wider regards hurricanes, scientific and technological awareness and preparedness have led to advances (satellites, reconnaissance aircraft, significant reductions of loss of life (see modern computer systems and sophisticated Figure 1.13). numerical models) make it possible to detect most hurricanes at an early stage of formation, to The prediction of small- or meso-scale monitor them throughout their life cycle and to meteorological/hydrological events such as provide forecasts of their tracks and intensity. 199 tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, squalls and The accuracy of forecasts and hence the flash floods requires the early detection of reliability and timeliness of warnings has been precursors. Forecast techniques are based on steadily improving (Figure 9.1). continuously updated observational information on storm movement, rainfall intensity, and/or Flood forecasting models have only recently been river stage from real-time observations from developed and used on a routine basis. Many

Figure 9.1—Forecast Accuracy. The lines give the error in the track forecast of Atlantic hurricanes for various forecast periods over the years from 1965 to 1998 Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

existing hydrological models must be adjusted in Data Processing and Dissemination of Warnings real time as information arrives at the forecasting The data-processing and dissemination of centre. Progress has been made in the forecasting services form part of the WWW development of methodologies for flood and network which includes meteorological centres even flash flood forecasting and nowcasting, at the global, regional and national levels. Some especially using new tools such as the of the regional centres specialize in the Geographic Information System (GIS). monitoring and prediction of natural disasters such as tropical cyclones. Drought prediction requires, among other things, monitoring the patterns of monthly and seasonal The infrastructure that supports the preparation rainfall, reservoir and groundwater levels, soil and dissemination of forecasts to the end-users moisture and snow cover. Progress in developing including the public, national and local predictive skill for large geographical regions on authorities, civil society and the media involves, seasonal time-scales makes it possible to provide among other things, the WWW Global Data- increasingly useful forecasts of the onset, severity processing System (GDPS) and Global and duration of drought. Telecommunication System (GTS), which ensure the processing and operational exchange of data Further progress in the provision of useful natural and products. These systems are vital for the early disaster forecasting services is based on three warning of disasters. The exchange of data is main pillars: based on the adopted and promulgated WMO principle and policy of free and unrestricted • Maintenance and enhancement of exchange of meteorological and hydrological data observational network and data collection and products. systems; • Further technological advances in data processing and dissemination; and Development of methodologies for 200 • Continuing development of methodologies, improved forecasting including advanced weather and climate models. Bearing this in mind, WMO As regards the development of methodologies for promotes and implements a number of major improved forecasting, WMO provides a global international programmes and projects to framework for collaboration in research in the coordinate and stimulate national, regional fields of meteorology, hydrology and other geo- and international actions in these domains. sciences. In particular, WMO’s World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) deals with improving forecasts of high-impact weather. The Observation and data-collection development of methodologies for forecasting networks natural disasters is also within the responsibility of other WMO programmes. In particular, the Observational data requirements for natural Hydrology and Water Resources Programme disaster forecasting are provided by addresses forecasting of floods and flash floods. meteorological and hydrological observing The Tropical Cyclone Programme is implement- systems, primarily in the context of WMO’s ed in close collaboration with the WMO Regional World Weather Watch (WWW) and its Hydrology Tropical Cyclone bodies and Regional Specialized and Water Resources Programmes (HWRP) (see Tropical Cyclone Centres (see Figure 1.14). For Chapter 1). The World Hydrological Cycle seasonal forecasting, the WMO Climate Observing System (WHYCOS) has a regional Information and Prediction Services (CLIPS) pro- component CARIB-HYCOS (see Figure 7.7). It is ject provides the necessary framework. The abili- being developed by WMO in cooperation with ty to forecast on time scales of a season or more countries of the Caribbean Basin. CARIB-HYCOS depends on the fact that sea surface temperature will enhance the ability of these countries to (SST) anomalies may be associated with persis- assess their freshwater resources, and provide tent atmospheric circulation patterns at locations valuable data useful for mitigating flood-related which may be distant from their source. The best disasters and for better understanding of the known of these anomalies is the El Niño, marked impacts of El Niño on the hydrological regime of by a warming of the ocean surface in the eastern the region. parts of the tropical Pacific. A particularly strong Chapter 9 — Extreme events and natural disasters

El Niño event occurred in 1997 and 1998. El (a) Acknowledged ability to predict weather Niño events in the Americas are marked by the phenomena on a routine basis, including following events (although it needs to be stressed extreme events (hurricanes, extratropical that they do not occur during every El Niño storms, tornadoes, etc.) several days in event): excessively heavy rainfall along the west advance; coast of South America and California; heavy rain- (b) The ability to simulate large-scale features fall in southern Brazil and northern Argentina; of the components of the climate system drought in northeast Brazil; and changes of the (for example, Figure 1.17 shows the tracks and frequency of Atlantic hurricanes and observed and model predicted geographic tropical cyclones in the Pacific (see Chapter 5). distribution of December to February Skills of extended-range forecasts for tropical surface temperature and June to August Pacific Ocean SSTs have improved markedly. precipitation, simulated by comprehensive Numerical and statistical models were in general coupled atmosphere-ocean models); agreement on the behaviour of El Niño/La Niña. (c) The use of these coupled models in the Figure 3.13 gives an example of the forecast, a successful prediction of El Niño (1997- year ahead, of sea surface temperature anomalies 1998) and La Niña (1998– ) phenomena, in the tropical areas of the Indian Ocean and the and their possible impacts, several months Pacific. Such forecasts are produced operational- ahead of their occurrences; and (d) the ly by a few centres. At present, the most accurate ability to predict global temperature forecasts are, in general, those for the tropical variations between the time of eruption of Pacific. Mt. Pinatubo (June 1991) and the end of 1994. The result agreed closely with the Current seasonal prediction models range from observations (see Figure 6.5). simple statistical approaches, through intermediate models which combine the statistical and numerical approaches, to complex Success in regional use of El numerical coupled models which use basic Niño forecasts 201 physical laws to predict the future state of both the atmosphere and the oceans. Much of the Climate information and prediction services are success in the development of models to predict frequently aimed at alleviating or mitigating these climate anomalies is based on the results of negative impacts of extreme climate conditions the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere or anomalies, and also at taking advantage of any (TOGA) programme (1985- 1994) and the Climate positive impacts (Obasi, 1999) (see Chapter 5). Variability and Predictability Study (CLIVAR) of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) cosponsored by WMO. TOGA provided The case of Colombia: El Niño and fundamental insight into the mechanisms of the the malaria epidemic El Niño event and also facilitated the development of an observing network of moored Too much or too little rainfall, which are buoys across the tropical Pacific Ocean, which common in some regions during the warm and provide invaluable real-time data for input into cold El Niño phases, have been associated with the prediction models. CLIVAR includes the various vector-borne and food-related diseases. development of seasonal to interannual Similar observations have also been made in other prediction models under its GOALS (Global parts of the region and many parts of the tropics. Ocean Atmosphere Land System) sub-programme. Figure 5.9 shows the linkages between El Niño and malaria cases in Colombia. The basis of confidence in prediction models Disaster mitigation and management policies Weather and climate models incorporate mathematical descriptions of the atmosphere, The provision of timely warnings and forecasts to ocean, land, biosphere and cryosphere in various the public in safety of life and protection of degrees of complexity. Several factors provide property is one of the primary roles of all confidence in these models including: National Meteorological and Hydrological Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

Services (NMHSs). The achievement of optimal of information to be carefully coordinated to results from the forecasts for preparedness and ensure timeliness and accuracy. While response to natural disasters therefore requires dissemination systems are generally well effective coordination and cooperation between developed and fairly resilient in developed NMHSs, the responsible agencies and institutions, countries, this is not always the case in many the media, political leaders and civil society at developing nations. local, national and international levels. Timely and effective forecasts and warnings of natural A high level of coordination must therefore exist disasters, coupled with local capability to take between the organizations responsible for the mitigating actions, are fundamental to effective detection of, and response to, the phenomenon disaster reduction. caused by natural disasters. Of particular importance is the coordination of the issuance of The NMHSs, in coordination with other national forecasts and warnings. In many countries, the and international organizations concerned, have NMHSs have been designated as the authoritative to be involved in virtually all the activities voice for this purpose. WMO fully supports and concerning natural disaster reduction, in promotes such arrangements which have proved particular, risk assessment, detection of disasters to be effective. NMHSs must be actively involved causing events, interaction with decision makers in inter-agency disaster planning at national and and other users, including civil society, as well as regional levels to ensure a regular flow of reliable participation in public awareness campaigns. This information to the public, political leaders, involvement should constitute a framework responsible officials and civil society. within which the forecasting and warning Coordination with the media must be given a capabilities of the NMHSs could be assessed and particularly high priority, as it is a vital element in recommendations made for improvement. the dissemination of forecasts and warnings.

In the area of risk assessment, the NMHSs should To assist NMHSs in improving coordination and 202 provide observational data and statistics required interaction at the national level, WMO has for identifying disaster potential, in particular the developed guidelines on best practices regarding intensity and probability of occurrences, and also the relationships between NMHSs and the contribute to planning measures, including early organizations involved in emergency warning, in order to minimize risk. management. The guidelines recommend, among other things, the organization of seminars for Detection systems, many of which are managed disaster managers and decision makers, the by NMHSs (for example, the detection and participation of NMHSs in emergency-related tracking of tropical storms by the National bodies and in preparedness and prevention Hurricane Center in Miami), are intimately campaigns, joint missions of forecasters and connected with preparedness systems, providing emergency officers, and the publication of continuous updating of forecasts and warnings. educational material on hydrometeorological aspects of natural disaster management. An effective and interactive system to communicate with users is a vital component of In the light of the above considerations, the any forecasting activity. Officials and the public following are essential for forecasting systems to must receive information in a timely manner and be effective: be able to interpret it correctly. If the predictive capabilities are to be used to maximum • Access through reliable communications to advantage, a clearer understanding by all involved the data from local, national, regional and in relevant aspects from prediction to application global observation networks; is needed to enable forecasters and users to work • State-of-the-art predictive capability at the together as a team. An effective forecast system national level and, as necessary, guidance requires that the target population understand and information from specialized regional the content of the message and know how to and global centres; react to it. This implies that well-designed • Effective local and national dissemination forecast and warning systems must include an systems capable of alerting threatened ongoing public awareness component on populations as frequently as may be potential risks. This will call for the dissemination appropriate; Chapter 9 — Extreme events and natural disasters

• Awareness of the population and local and studies of hazards of hydrometeorological national authorities regarding the content origin, making it possible to create early and meaning of forecasts and warning warning systems and disseminate messages and how they should react to information on disasters; them; and (c) The Study on the Prediction and • Coordination among all national and, as Amelioration of Socio-economic Impacts of appropriate, regional agencies involved in El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in disaster reduction, in both the planning and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC): operation phases. This Study was initiated by WMO and IADB in September 1999. It will respond to the Whilst these requirements are generally satisfied request expressed by the LAC countries in developed countries, forecasting services in through the Guayaquil Declaration developing countries often experience a lack of (November 1998) and to the long-term resources for acquiring adequate facilities and for objectives of UN Resolution 52/200 on human resources development. It is therefore of “International Cooperation to Reduce the utmost importance that international agencies, Impact of the El Niño Phenomenon”. In the including WMO, provide the maximum possible context of the ENSO Study, the assistance to those countries concerned to enable development of early warning systems, them to participate in regional and global efforts including forecast components, will be aimed at mitigating natural disasters and analysed in selected countries and sub- contributing to national sustainable development. regions from the technical, economical, social, environmental, legal and institutional points of view. The Study therefore IADB and WMO cooperation includes an evaluation of the existing institutional and technical forecasting In the area of natural disaster reduction, WMO capabilities in Latin American and undertook a number of actions, particularly follow- Caribbean countries, as well as the 203 ing its Action Plan on the IDNDR, to assist its formulation of project proposals and the Members in the Americas to improve their fore- analysis of the economic value of improved casting and warning services. Some of these early warning systems; and actions have been undertaken jointly and with the (d) The project “Support to Natural Disaster support of the IADB, and include the following: Prevention and Water Resources Management”: This project, based on the (a) The Ibero-American Climate Project modernization of the NMHSs affected by Feasibility Study: This Study was funded by Hurricane Mitch, was prepared by WMO in the IADB, Spain, the United States, Canada collaboration with the NMHSs of the four and WMO and was carried out between affected countries, namely, Honduras, 1997 and 1999. It provided feasibility Nicaragua, Guatemala and El Salvador. projects to 13 countries in Latin America. Similar proposals are being formulated for The implementation of the project will the other Central American countries. allow NMHSs of participating countries to provide meteorological and hydrological forecasts to users in order to enable them Other international to prevent and mitigate the impact of collaborative efforts natural disasters as well as make better use of natural resources; In addition to the above, WMO is also involved in (b) The “Conference on Water Resources several other projects in the region. Assessment and Management Strategies in Latin America and the Caribbean”: This The Project entitled “Radar Network Warning Conference was convened by IADB and System for the Protection and Sustainable WMO in 1996. The main outcome was an Development of the Caribbean Countries” is action plan which, among its main funded by the European Union. It will provide an concerns, included the mitigation of natural advanced weather warning system and relevant disasters. The plan called for the data to weather sensitive sectors in the countries implementation of national and regional covered by the radars. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

Other project proposals under consideration Role and place of forecasts in include a Flash Flood Threshold Pilot Project which would cover certain areas in Central and the proposed IADB actions South America and would assess the ability of modern remote-sensing and computer The actions proposed by the IADB in support of technology to provide warnings of flash floods Members relate to hydrometeorological disaster in areas with scarce data. A tropical cyclone monitoring, forecasting and early warning and landfall project and another on urban flooding should involve and be built upon existing and environment in Sao Paulo, Brazil, are cooperation among the NMHSs. planned under WMO’s World Weather Research Programme. It is therefore imperative that when formulating and implementing its action plan, the IADB take A Memorandum of Understanding signed a few the following into consideration: months ago by the World Bank and WMO will further contribute to developing synergies • The definition of an effective strategy to between relevant programmes of the Bank and reduce risk would include the recognition those of WMO in areas of common interest, of, and measures to satisfy, the need for such as natural disaster prevention and adequate support to existing viable national mitigation, climate change and the El Niño institutions such as NMHSs, and the event. In this context, the establishment of the strengthening of regional and international El Niño Centre in Guayaquil, Ecuador, should be centres, projects and programmes on highlighted as a follow-up to UN General scientific and technological aspects of Assembly Resolution 54/220 on International natural disaster reduction; Cooperation to reduce the impact of El Niño • The building of technical, scientific and phenomena. operational capacity including human resources within the NMHSs would be the 204 Furthermore, partnership with the private most cost-effective way to realize their sector and commercial activities are also potential to contribute to the expected to grow in the new millennium, due implementation of the strategy related to to the increase in benefits that can accrue from natural disaster reduction at national, meteorological and hydrological information regional and global levels; and prediction services. In this regard, WMO • National and regional systems for natural will continue to work with Member countries, disaster prevention and mitigation would relevant international organizations and non- embrace components based upon the state entities in natural disaster mitigation facilities and capability of the NMHSs. These activities in the context of the International should be integrated, as appropriate, with Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR). It is other systems related to preparedness, essential that the future Strategy would include, public awareness, decision-making, and as a major thrust, scientific and technical relief and rehabilitation; activities and ensure the continued involvement • National and/or regional coordination of scientific and technical organizations like between the NMHSs and the civil defence WMO. WMO also participated, with other organizations responsible for disaster preven- institutions such as the IADB, in the launching tion and coordination with the media for of the ProVention Consortium — a global dissemination of forecasts are also important; partnership of all stakeholders, including • Inter-agency coordination would take into governments, international organizations, full account the existing and planned academic institutions, private sector and the scientific and technical programmes and media, aimed at reducing the risk of disasters in activities of regional and international developing countries and at making disaster organizations, including WMO, especially in prevention and mitigation an integral part of the context of the International Strategy for development efforts. Disaster Reduction (ISDR). Chapter 10 EDUCATION AND TRAINING AND RELATIONS WITH PROFESSIONAL SOCIETIES AND ACADEMIC INSTITUTIONS1 Address on the occasion of the 1999 graduation ceremony of the Collège du Léman

(Versoix (Geneva), 23 June 1999)

At the outset, I wish to express my thanks to Mr Indeed, challenges confront us all. This is also the Clivaz for the invitation extended to me to be part case for the World Meteorological Organization of this important and auspicious occasion. It gives (WMO), of which I am part and which is an inter- me great pride and pleasure to address you, the governmental organization with a membership of graduating class of 1999, at this commencement 185 States and Territories. It continually faces chal- exercise of the Collège du Léman. You have the lenges pertinent to the promotion of international distinction of being the last batch of graduates of cooperation in meteorology, hydrology and related 205 Collège du Léman this century and this disciplines. These challenges cover a wide range of millennium. issues relating to the protection of life and property, particularly the mitigation of natural disasters, I wish to extend to you my heartfelt safeguarding of the environment, ozone layer congratulations. This graduation represents the depletion, climate change, freshwater resources culmination of your years of dedication and management and sustainable development. In fact, efforts, as well as a period of personal trials and within the United Nations system, WMO is the triumphs. The years you have spent in this authoritative scientific voice on the state and institution have provided you with rich behaviour of the Earth’s atmosphere, its interac- experiences and valuable opportunities that tion with the oceans, the climate it generates and have helped you as you grew in maturity. In the resulting distribution of freshwater resources particular, the Collège du Léman, founded in on the globe. 1960, has provided you with the opportunity to experience the creation of unity out of diversity. In recent years, meteorological and hydrological Each one of you has been exposed to a wide natural disasters have been costing the world econ- range of cultural experiences through your omy about US$ 50 billion per annum. They have interaction with fellow students as well as staff also caused suffering to more than two billion who come from various parts of the world. It people since 1965, and three million lives have has provided an educational environment in been lost. Much of these losses could have been which there has been care, understanding and averted through preparatory and preventive discipline. The influence of this experience will measures based on scientific assessments of multi- be with you as you advance in years and face the ple risks as well as appropriate warning and many challenges before you. response systems.

1 Editor’s Note: The Education and Training Progamme of WMO is especially important to Professor Obasi, who led this programme before being elected Secretary-General. The reader is first directed to the extensive outlines of ETR found in the first 3 chapters. This chapter begins with a inspirational address to graduating students in a Swiss school. Following this are two examples of outreach to learned societies. Lastly, challenges of the new millennium in education and training are addressed in a presentation to a conference in Madrid, April 2003. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

Further challenges relate to the consequences of And you, the youth of today, stand as inheritors of human activities on climate change and variability. the legacy that is being passed on. To more fully We have seen the impacts of climate variations prepare yourselves, seek excellence — aim high such as the El Niño. The 1982/1983 El Niño and hit the mark. Believe in yourselves, in your caused global damage estimated between US$ 8 capacity to do things that are good, worthwhile billion and US$ 9 billion; while for that of and outstanding. It is important for you to remem- 1997/1998, a recent global assessment indicated a ber that each one of you has a unique and personal direct cost of at least US$34 billion. contribution to render. As has been said:

Today, fresh water has already become critically There is a love only your heart can give, A kind scarce in 22 countries. The demand will continue word only your tongue can utter, A smile only to increase in the foreseeable future; and it is esti- your lips could give, And a task only your hands mated that by 2025, a third of the world’s can do. Should you refuse to do any of these, it is population will live in countries with inadequate forever left undone. supplies of fresh water. The challenge here is to ensure adequate assessments of fresh water As you prepare for the further stages of life, I through the application of hydrological and mete- suggest that you continue your progress by contin- orological sciences. uing to know yourself better. Seek your own identity, know who you are, where you come As we enter the third millennium, WMO is from, why you are here and where you are going. I prepared to face the many challenges that will suggest that each of you, young men and young arise within its scope of activities. Indeed, WMO is women, ask yourself: “Do I know where I want to looking forward to turning these challenges into go, what I want to be, what I want to do?” opportunities to better serve humankind In this connection, it may be suggested that in this In a parallel way, I feel that you, the class of 1999, time of transition and in the face of constant flux, 206 should also continue to prepare yourselves to it would be desirable for you to write down your meet the challenges and opportunities that will be goals and what you plan to do to achieve them. before you. As you do so, you need to bear in mind When you set out to travel, you identify your desti- that you will be facing a world full of contrast and nation as well as when and how you expect to get change, as has been the case in this last century of there. As you travel through life, a similar effort is the second millennium which is coming to a close. necessary; you cannot hope to reach a particular In connection with this century, one writer has destination if you wander aimlessly. As Lewis commented that: “In one respect it has been a Carroll tells us in his well-known Alice’s shameful period in the history of the world. It has Adventures in Wonderland, Alice was following a been the worst of all centuries, with more of war, path through a forest in Wonderland when it more of man’s inhumanity to man, more of divided in two directions. Standing irresolute, she conflict and trouble than any other century in the inquired of the Cheshire cat, which had suddenly history of the world. It has been the bloodiest of appeared in a nearby tree, which path she should all seasons. It has been a time of destruction and take. “Where do you want to go?” asked the cat. “I misery and pain to millions upon millions. But in a don’t know,” said Alice. “Then,” said the cat, “it larger sense this has been the best of all centuries. really doesn’t matter, does it?” We need to know In the long history of the earth there has been where we want to go and have the resolution — nothing like it. The life expectancy of man has even the faith — to get there. been extended by more than 25 years. Think of it. It is a miracle. The fruits of science have been Moreover, you have had the privilege of a good manifest everywhere. By and large, we live longer, education and other wonderful opportunities. It we live better. This is an age of greater understand- has been said that to whom much has been given, ing and knowledge. We live in a world of great much is expected. What can you expect to be diversity. As we learn more of one another, our expected of you? Among other things, I would say appreciation grows. This has been an age of that gratitude, appreciation and love should be in enlightenment. The miracles of modern medicine, your hearts — for your parents and family who of travel, of communication are almost beyond nurtured, cared and supported you, as well as the belief. All of this has opened new opportunities teachers and staff who have guided and educated for us which we must grasp and use…” you. It is rather easy to take parents for granted Chapter 10 — Education and training and not realize just how much they mean to you I shall pass through this world but once. Any good and you to them, although recognition of parents thing therefore that I can do, or any kindness that may arise in some odd way, sometimes. An illustra- I can show to any human being, let me do it now. tion of this occurred in a secondary school. After a Let me not defer it or neglect it, for I shall not pass class had studied magnets, one of the test ques- this way again. tions was “What begins with the letter “M” and picks things up?” More than a third of the students Also, each one of you should continue to believe answered “Mother”. in yourself and be proactive. You have a choice. You are and you become the person you wish to To your teachers and the staff here at Collège du be, according to how you choose to create an Léman, I also pay homage by citing the words of image of yourself in your mind. As a poet has writ- Daniel Webster: ten: “If you think you are beaten, you are. If you think you dare not, you don’t. Success begins with “If we work upon marble, it will perish; if we your own will; It’s all in your state of mind. Life’s work upon brass, time will efface it; if we rear battles are not always won By those who are temples, they will crumble into dust; but if we stronger or faster; Sooner or later, the person who work upon immortal minds and instill into them wins Is the person who thinks he can.” just principles, we are then engraving that upon tablets which no time will efface, but will brighten Furthermore, I urge you to be resolute and deter- and brighten to all eternity.” I also wish to remind mined in your undertakings, remembering that the graduating class that graduation is not really “there is no chance, no destiny, no faith, which only an end, but also a new beginning. It is there- can circumvent or hinder or control, the firm fore appropriate that a graduation ceremony is also resolve of a determined soul.” called a commencement exercise. You begin to take a new place, for instance, as you pursue In closing, to you dear graduates, I offer the further studies in an institution of higher learning. following words: “You have walked miles. You In the university, your critical thinking will be have read books. You have solved equations. 207 further sharpened, your horizon will be broadened Now, go forth, reach for the stars and touch your and you will be better equipped to contribute your dreams.” share. And I hope that you will use the opportunities available to you to also serve and be counted Congratulations once again and good luck to you upon. In the words of Etienne de Grellet: all.

Statement on the occasion of the 150th anniversary of the Royal Meteorological Society

International Conference on Meteorology at the Millennium — Meteorology Serving The Community (Cambridge, United Kingdom, 12 July 2000)

It is indeed an honour and a pleasure for me to its members on this auspicious occasion. I would address you on the occasion of the celebration of also like to pay tribute to former Presidents and the 150th anniversary of the Royal Meteorological members of the Society for their dedication and Society (RMS). I wish to thank Professor Hoskins steadfastness in building the Society, and at the and, through him, the Royal Meteorological same time, in advancing the science of Society for the kind invitation to share this meteorology and enhancing the image of the historic moment with you. On behalf of the meteorological profession. World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the world meteorological community and on my The 150th anniversary of the Society, which own, I would like to convey our warmest incidentally coincides with the 50th anniversary congratulations and greetings to the Society and of WMO, is a landmark event and represents an Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

opportunity to look back with pride on the leadership of numerous distinguished meteorolo- achievements of the Society, and into the future gists, past and present, including prestigious IMO of how to further enhance the relevance of the Prize winners, namely, Mr E. Gold, Dr R. C. Society to the needs of the scientific community Sutcliffe, Sir Graham Sutton, Mr J. S. Sawyer, Sir and the wider public. I myself joined the Royal Arthur Davies, a former Secretary-General of Meteorological Society as a Fellow in 1960 and WMO, and Sir John Houghton. In addition, a therefore feel privileged to share this historic number of other Society members acting in vari- moment with you. ous capacities, including senior staff members of WMO, members of the WMO Executive Council, The Royal Meteorological Society has a long and officers of Technical Commissions and very rich history that could be traced as far back Chairpersons of constituent bodies, have con- as 15 October 1823 when a group of tributed to the prestige, stature and achieve- distinguished scientists founded the ments of WMO. Meteorological Society of London. The Society was short-lived, but the original spirit of At the dawn of the 21st century, major issues of communion among meteorologists was rekindled global concern such as climate change and its again with the establishment of the British impacts, mitigation of natural disasters, Meteorological Society on 3 April 1850. The environmental degradation, dwindling water Society was incorporated by Royal Charter in resources and the need to provide for food, 1886, when its name was changed to The water, energy and shelter in some parts of the Meteorological Society. The privilege of adding world have presented continuing challenges to “Royal” to the name was granted by Her Majesty policy makers and have remained a major Queen Victoria in 1883 and, today, Her Majesty preoccupation of the World Meteorological Queen Elizabeth II is the Patron of the Royal Organization. Rapid advances in science and Meteorological Society. technology, including satellites, information technology and telecommunications, offer 208 Over the years, the Royal Meteorological Society unprecedented opportunities to meteorologists has been on the forefront of promoting the to contribute to addressing these challenges. To meteorological profession, through closer links take advantage of these developments, with scientists from other disciplines, and has meteorological societies, National Meteorological thus ensured that the profession of meteorology Services (NMSs) and WMO will have to continue is appropriately recognized and given its rightful to enhance their cooperation and collaboration. place among other prestigious scientific bodies and fields. Such efforts, which include the Although in the past WMO has had few formal designation of Chartered Meteorologists and the contacts with meteorological societies, it never- publication of authoritative journals such as the theless recognizes the synergy that such Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological collaboration can bring to the promotion of the Society, should be generally encouraged. meteorological profession. In this regard, National Meteorological Services are the natural allies of At the global level, the RMS has been instrumen- meteorological societies. In addition, WMO’s tal in promoting international cooperation in scientific and research programmes offer an meteorology. Some major global initiatives opportunity for the members of the societies to involving members of the Society include the participate in various regional and global activities, convening of the First International particularly through the National Meteorological Meteorological Congress in 1853; the establish- Services which are normally WMO’s focal points at ment of the International Meteorological the national level. WMO also encourages NMSs to Organization, the predecessor of WMO, in 1873; increasingly nurture and promote such contacts. the convening of the Extraordinary Conference of Directors of National Meteorological Services We are also aware that, over the years, a number in London in 1946 to prepare the Convention of national meteorological societies have been that established WMO; and the subsequent estab- established in different parts of the world, lishment of the World Meteorological especially in the developing countries. The Organization in 1950. The Society’s achieve- present trend of establishing regional ments therefore extend beyond national borders meteorological societies such as the African and have been largely due to the dedication and Meteorological Society and the European Chapter 10 — Education and training

Meteorological Society must also be encouraged. which are unique events to the meteorological An obvious need will be for a closer interaction community, I wish to assure you that WMO will among existing national and regional societies continue to promote the establishment of and for encouraging the establishment of such meteorological societies where feasible; societies where feasible, especially in developing encourage further cooperation among the countries. Mechanisms such as “twinning”, Societies; and collaborate with them in the launching of joint publications and journals, co- promotion of popular education in meteorology, sponsoring of scientific conferences and for the benefit of school children, teachers, reciprocal membership should be encouraged. amateurs, volunteers and the public-at-large.

As we commemorate the 150th anniversary of We look forward to many more anniversaries in RMS and the 50th anniversary of WMO, both of this new millennium.

Statement on the occasion of the opening of the Conference of the South African Society for Atmospheric Sciences and the African Meteorological Society

(Johannesburg, South Africa, 26 August 2002) 209

It is an honour and indeed a privilege for me to the first Conference organized by SMA in Nairobi, be here today to address the 2002 Conference of Kenya, in 1992. Since then, I am pleased to note the South African Society for Atmospheric the close cooperation that has continued to Sciences (SASAS)/African Meteorological Society develop between the two Societies. (SMA) which marks a new phase in the close collaboration between SASAS and SMA. On behalf Over the years, the SMA has undertaken several of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) initiatives, including the organization of a bian- and on my own, I wish to thank Mr Donovan nual conference and the publication of a Nadison, Permanent Representative of South scientific journal. In parallel, the SASAS has Africa with WMO, for inviting me, on behalf of undertaken a number of important scientific SASAS and SMA, to address the Conference. I endeavours. These include the organization of wish to take this opportunity to congratulate Ms regular annual conferences, the Fifth Estelle Banitz, President of the SASAS, and Dr International Conference on Southern Mhita, the Acting President of SMA, for organizing Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography in this important Conference. Pretoria in 1997, with the co-sponsorship of the American Meteorological Society, and the Since the establishment of the South African Workshop on the Use and Benefit of Seasonal Society for Atmospheric Sciences in 1983 and the Weather Outlooks, held in Pretoria in 1996. I African Meteorological Society in 1988, these two would therefore like to extend my appreciation Societies have undertaken several important to the executive bodies of SASAS and the SMA, as activities aimed at achieving their objectives, well as their members and well-wishers, for the which are similar in many respects. They include, progress achieved thus far. among other things, the development of knowledge and stimulation of interest and The hosting of this Conference in conjunction support for meteorology and all other branches of with the World Summit on Sustainable atmospheric sciences in Africa. In this regard, I Development, on the theme “Bringing the Pieces recall the participation of scientists from SASAS in Together”, is particularly significant, as it Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

demonstrates the commitment of African As you deliberate on these issues, it is important atmospheric scientists and meteorologists to for the Conference to take into consideration contribute to the advancement of atmospheric relevant WMO activities and programmes. They sciences in support of sustainable development in provide considerable opportunities to improve Africa. I believe that this initiative will capacities and capabilities of African complement the efforts of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and Meteorological and Hydrological Services other scientific institutions to access (NMHSs) and of WMO. In particular, it will meteorological data and products for operational ensure that the contributions of meteorology and and research purposes, and to exchange hydrology are taken into consideration in any expertise and experiences that are particularly strategy and plan of action that the Summit will relevant to national sustainable development. develop for the effective implementation of Agenda 21, the cornerstone for achieving For this purpose, the availability of adequate and sustainable development. The Conference will timely meteorological and hydrological data is also contribute to the objectives of the New fundamental to advances in meteorology and Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD). hydrology. In this regard, a Strategic Plan for the implementation and improvement of the World In this context, the Conference should provide Weather Watch (WWW) basic systems in Africa is an opportunity for African meteorologists and being developed in order to rehabilitate and other scientists to review the research results improve meteorological observing, achieved over the past few decades in telecommunications, data processing, data atmospheric sciences and allied disciplines and management and forecasting facilities. This will exchange their findings and their ideas on key no doubt contribute to the improvement of the issues pertinent to sustainable development. In quality and quantity of data and products this way, it is to be hoped that the scientists will available at the National, Regional and Global be able to piece together the scientific results Meteorological Centres and be accessible to user 210 and draw up a strategy on the way forward in communities, including research scientists. The priority areas for sustainable development, availability of such data will contribute to further based on the level of research and available improvement of forecasts of extreme events such expertise and facilities in relevant fields in as droughts, floods and tropical cyclones. various parts of Africa. Other efforts aimed at enhancing the availability I am therefore pleased that the Conference will of atmospheric, oceanic, hydrologic and land consider a number of high priority issues of surface data include WMO’s Global Atmosphere relevance to sustainable development such as Watch (GAW), the World Climate Programme improved weather forecasting, seasonal (WCP), the Hydrology and Water Resources prediction, agricultural meteorology, climate Programme (HWRP) and the Global Climate change and its impacts on African society, climate Observing System (GCOS). These comprehensive modelling, atmospheric chemistry and air quality programmes will further facilitate the monitoring and weather modification. Further development and prediction of meteorological and in all these areas will no doubt lead to poverty hydrological and related climate phenomena. In alleviation through improved early warning, and order to encourage and optimize the use of data the protection and effective management of and information for climate prediction, WMO is natural resources through the applications of implementing the Climate Information and meteorological information to various socio- Prediction Services (CLIPS) project. The aim of economic sectors including agriculture, CLIPS is to enhance the capabilities of National particularly food production, fisheries, forestry, Meteorological Services in providing climate water resources management, health and energy. information and forecast, which would improve The current excruciating drought situation, their services in support of the various social and which is similar to those that occurred in economic sectors for the benefit of local southern Africa in the 1980s and 1990s, places an populations. Useful expertise in seasonal increased onus on atmospheric scientists to forecasts of climatic conditions with lead times of produce improved forecasts of such events so up to one year has been demonstrated, that appropriate actions could be timely taken to particularly with improved prediction of El Niño mitigate their impacts. events. Chapter 10 — Education and training

Furthermore, the Climate Variability and Scientists, the Vilho Vaisala Award and the Predictability project, known as CLIVAR, aims at International Gerbier-Mumm Award. describing, modelling and predicting global climate variations on a wide range of time-scales. In addition, I should also like to suggest a few CLIVAR is building its activities on results ways in which the Societies may further promote achieved by the successfully completed Tropical the science of meteorology. In particular, they Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) project of could: the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). In this respect, the specialized centres in Africa, • Encourage the development of national such as the Regional Training Centre for meteorological societies and develop Agrometeorology and Operational Hydrology and working relations between operational their Applications (AGRHYMET), the African experts and the academic and research Centre of Meteorological Applications for communities such as the African Academy of Development (ACMAD) in Niamey and the Sciences; Drought Monitoring Centres in Nairobi and • Organize joint events at the national and Harare, have an important role to play. regional levels; • Develop links with national and regional Another relevant Programme of WMO is the societies outside the region. In this context, I Atmospheric Research and Environment am pleased to inform you that WMO has very Programme, which includes the Tropical recently conducted a survey of existing Meteorology Research Programme and the World Meteorological, Hydrological and Weather Research Programme. Together with Oceanographic Societies. As a first step other WMO programmes, they address a wide towards promoting cooperation among range of research topics in meteorology and them, the list of these societies will be related environmental fields. In the context of posted on the WMO Web site; these Programmes, WMO collaborates with • Publish journals; international scientific institutions and other • Place greater emphasis upon activities and 211 partners in areas of interest to SASAS and SMA. outreach directed to decision makers, as well These include the improvement in understanding as generating grass roots support through of the weather and climate processes and public education and media interaction; phenomena common to low latitudes, the • Pay special attention to the inclusion of enabling of better weather and climate services, meteorology and atmospheric sciences in and the improvement in understanding of the school curricula; and physics and chemistry of clouds in recognition of • Collaborate with the National Meteorological their role in weather and climate predictions, Services in the development and transport and transformation of pollutants, and implementation of joint activities. for weather modification activities. In conclusion, let me reassure you that WMO is Through its programmes, WMO also encourages conscious of the important role that National and African meteorologists and other scientists to Regional Meteorological Societies can play in work together in various regional and global fostering research in atmospheric sciences. WMO research activities for the advancement of will therefore continue to support the National atmospheric sciences and their applications in Meteorological and Hydrological Services as well support of socio-economic development in as the Meteorological Societies worldwide in their Africa. In this endeavour, SASAS and SMA should efforts to promote human resources also take the necessary initiatives. In this regard, I development, research and applications of would like to invite the Societies to: meteorology in order to respond to Africa’s sustainable development requirements. As a • Encourage their members involved in Fellow of the African Meteorological Society, I research activities to participate actively in would like to reaffirm my availability and personal the work of the WMO scientific and support to bring about this development. I wish technical commissions; and the Conference fruitful deliberations. • Encourage their members to have their work considered for the various WMO awards, such as the WMO Research Award for Young Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

Statement at the opening of the Ninth WMO Symposium on Education and Training1

(Madrid, Spain, 21 April 2003)

It is a great pleasure and a privilege for me to among other activities, quadrennial symposia. address you today on the occasion of the opening Eight such symposia have been organized thus far of the Symposium on “New Perspectives of and the emanating recommendations have Education and Training in Meteorology and provided valuable inputs for WMO’s Education Hydrology” and to extend a warm welcome to all and Training Programme. the participants. I am pleased that so many participants, in particular those from developing This ninth Symposium is particularly significant in countries and countries with economies in that it is the first to be organized in the new transition, are attending this session. I understand millennium, coming after the World Summit on that two other meetings are being held in Sustainable Development held in Johannesburg, conjunction with the Symposium, namely, the South Africa, last year. In this context, the theme, Meeting of Directors/Principals of WMO Regional “New Perspectives of Education and Training in Meteorological Training Centres (RMTCs) and the Meteorology and Hydrology” is particularly Sixth Meeting of the Standing Conference of appropriate and timely, as it will take into Heads of Training Institutions of National consideration new developments that are Meteorological Services (SCHOTI). I also relevant in addressing some of the challenges of 212 welcome the organization of the Sixth the 21st century. These include: International Conference on School and Popular Meteorological and Oceanographic Education (a) The application of meteorology to disaster that will be hosted by Spain from 7 to 11 July mitigation, agriculture, water resources 2003. management, aviation, shipping, and other weather-sensitive socio-economic sectors; Your presence here, Your Excellency, is a further (b) global and interdisciplinary issues related to expression of your commitment and that of your climate change, desertification and Government to the programmes and activities of biodiversity conventions, and plans of WMO and, in particular, to its Education and action and initiatives such as the Training Programme. I am also most thankful to Millennium Development Goals and the Dr Couchoud Gregori, Director General of the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation on Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia and her staff sustainable development; for making the excellent arrangements that will (c) The numerous opportunities offered by no doubt contribute to the success of the rapid technological advances and scientific Symposium and the other events. I also wish to progress in meteorology, hydrology, take this opportunity to thank Dr Carlos Garcia- oceanography and related sciences and Legaz, the local coordinator and his team, as well disciplines; and as the members of the International Planning (d) The impacts of globalization, market-led Committee of this Symposium, for their valuable economies, commercialisation and the contributions to its success. requirements of international cooperation on the NMHSs, as well as enhanced In its continuing quest to address relevant interaction of the Services with relevant education and training aspects of the latest national and regional institutions, academic developments in meteorological and hydrological institutions, the public, NGOs and the sciences and practice, WMO has instituted, media.

1 Among those present were Her Excellency, Maria Elvira Rodriguez Herrer, Minister of Environment of Spain and Dr Milagros Couchoud Gregori, Director-General of the National Meteorological Institute. Chapter 10 — Education and training

In order to respond to these developments, the On the second topic, which relates to training Symposium should develop an appropriate approaches, methods and technologies, the overall education and training Strategy. This Symposium should promote the use of modern Strategy should be tailored, among other things, teaching and learning methods, particularly the to increasing educators’ awareness on the needs, wider application of online learning in challenges and opportunities for high quality meteorology and hydrology. Accordingly, the education and training in meteorology, hydrology Symposium should assess how the new and related geophysical sciences as well as other technologies can be used to effectively enhance relevant issues of concern to the NMHSs and the learning process through rich multi-media policy makers. You should also take into educational content via the Internet, audio, full- consideration the recommendations arising from motion video, animation, still-image and text files WMO’s Second Conference on Women in that can be made available at any time to the Meteorology and Hydrology, held in Geneva in learner’s computer desktop. It will also be March 2003 (see Chapter 2). necessary to examine the NMHSs’ capabilities, including the availability and maintenance of If you will permit, I will briefly comment on the suitable hardware, access to delivery technology, three major topics that will be considered by this bandwidth connections, personnel motivation Symposium. and office culture.

As regards the first topic, concerning The findings on the capabilities of NMHSs should meteorological and hydrological personnel in enable them to productively apply the advanced the new century, the Symposium needs to take technological tools in their daily activities. On the into consideration the tremendous advances in basis of such assessment, appropriate strategies the understanding of meteorological and could be developed to enable the NMHSs to cope hydrological processes, as well as the and to make effective use of these new tools in considerable expansion in application areas and order to upgrade the knowledge and skills of new techniques. This evolution, and the their personnel. This can be best achieved by 213 accelerated development of science and taking an integrated approach that stimulates technology, imply that professional knowledge constant review and adaptation in pedagogical of serving meteorologists have to be updated methods and in the working environment. several times during a working lifetime. In this context, the promotion of synergy As is the case for any other operational-scientific between research scientists, practitioners and institution, human resources development should instructors seems essential. Indeed, the progress remain a prime responsibility of National made in research contributes to a better Meteorological and Hydrological Services understanding of the complex meteorological and (NMHSs). In particular, they should ensure that hydrological processes. As a result, new working new recruits to these institutions receive the methods, conceptual models and approaches are latest training in their specialized fields and are then available for application to operational kept constantly updated throughout their careers activities. Adapting new theories and concepts in in the NMHSs. Their education and training an operational way requires the joint efforts of should make them aware of the international research scientists and practitioners to test the dimension and the multidisciplinary nature of validity and usefulness of the new developments. their profession. Ideally, their training should encompass, among other things, professional Concerning the third topic of the Symposium, specialisation programmes, on-the-job training in namely accreditation and certification in multiple forms, self- and distance-learning, short meteorology and hydrology, WMO is becoming courses and technical visits. Instructors and increasingly aware that the recognition or trainers, as well as training managers present at validation of acquired knowledge and experience the Symposium, are therefore invited to review is an important issue for career development. the competency requirements of NMHSs’ This is particularly relevant when skills are personnel and to recommend strategies for their obtained through informal methods or self- continuing professional growth, in line with the instruction such as distance learning, and latest scientific and technological knowledge and web-based or computer-aided learning. Several developments. National Meteorological Services (NMSs) already Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

possess accreditation rights to authorise training national and transnational schemes for programmes leading to meteorological recognition or accreditation of educational technicians qualification, and to issue appropriate institutions and training programmes, as well as professional certification. Some NMSs also play an schemes for certification of professionals and active role in the design and/or implementation technicians in meteorology and hydrology. It of the educational programmes for graduate should provide recommendations on possible meteorologists. However, only formal institutions adaptation/generalisation of certain schemes, for higher education may issue the relevant with the aim of achieving a certain degree of degrees or diplomas. In this context, it may also international harmonisation. The guidance be noted that the process of WMO recognition of provided should form part of the Strategy that Regional Meteorological Training Centres (RMTCs might emanate from this Symposium. Figure 1.19) relates to the process of institution/programme accreditation undertaken I am pleased to learn that three Working Groups in a number of countries. How that recognition at are planned to be established for the duration of the international level translates into global and the Symposium, to discuss and make specific national acceptance of the certificates issued by recommendations on the three major topics. those institutions is another issue to be Your proposals in the context of the overall addressed. Strategy will be a valuable input to WMO’s Education and Training Programme. In this way, In this respect, the Symposium should consider you will be contributing to a Programme that will how best to bring forth the synergy between be enhancing WMO’s support to the human recognition, accreditation and certification in the resources development of NMHSs, and therefore context of the need for quality education in assist in providing adequate and quality services meteorology and hydrology. The Symposium for the socio-economic benefits of humanity in should therefore review and explore existing the 21st century. 214 Chapter 11 SPECIAL SUB-REGIONAL ACTIVITIES AND CHALLENGES TO NMHSs1 Africa Address at the opening of the International Workshop on West African Monsoon Variability and Predictability (WAMAP)

(Dakar, Senegal, 1 June 1999)2

On behalf of the World Meteorological important contribution made by WMO to tropical Organization (WMO) and my own, I would like to meteorological research up to that time. Following express my appreciation to you, Your this unprecedented event, Senegal hosted the Excellencies, and through you to the Government Tenth Anniversary of GATE in 1984 and again, its of Senegal, for hosting this Workshop here in Twenty-fifth Anniversary which coincides with 215 Dakar. I am thankful to Dr Wassila Thiaw for the this Workshop. These efforts by the Government kind invitation extended to me. I would also like to of Senegal demonstrate its commitment to the thank Mr Alioune N’Diaye and the organizers of improvement of our understanding of weather and the Workshop for the warm welcome and gener- climate processes and the application of meteoro- ous hospitality, and to commend them for the logical information to sustainable development. excellent arrangements made to ensure the success of the Workshop. WMO is pleased to be associated with the other sponsors, in particular the University of Cheikh It is particularly significant that this Workshop is Anta Diop and the African Desk of the Climate being held in Dakar. It was indeed here that the Prediction Centre, in the organization of this historic Global Atmospheric Research Programme Workshop which is designed: Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) was launched in June 1974 under the management • To focus the attention of the research group led by Dr J.P. Kuettner, and with the active community on key scientific issues related to participation of many African experts, and in the West African monsoon system; particular with the support of the National • To strengthen ties among concerned scien- Meteorological Service under the able leadership tists from Africa, the United States of America of Dr Mansour Seck, the former Director of the and other parts of the world; and, Service. The global effort, which drew the partici- • To provide a comprehensive review of our pation of about 70 countries, was by far the most current level of knowledge and

1 Editor’s Note: Throughout the late-1996 to early-2003 period, Professor Obasi addressed many national, subregional and regional meetings and conferences. A select few of them are included in this chapter. On many occasions he challenged the NMHSs to tackle important emerging issues, while committing WMO’s vigorous support. In particular, during this period, at the request of Members, WMO developed guidance material on management of NMHSs, to increase their visibility and effectiveness, and this is reflected in several of the addresses in this chapter.

2 Among those present were His Excellency, Minister of Transportation and Tourism, His Excellency, Minister of Resources and Technology, Ambassador of the United States of America to Senegal, President of the University of Cheikh Anta Diop of Dakar and Mr Alioune N’Diaye, Director of the National Meteorological Service and Permanent Representative of Senegal with WMO. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

understanding of the variations and The current wave of interest came about mainly as predictive skills for West Africa. a useful by-product of global research in seasonal prediction and climate-change prediction. For I welcome the initiative to associate a number of example, while the global scale El Niño/Southern Directors of National Meteorological Services from Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is especially felt the Region in this Workshop. Their presence will in the eastern and southern parts of the continent, no doubt provide the perspective of operational it was found that for western Africa, a smaller sea- meteorologists and assist in identifying some of surface temperature anomaly in the Atlantic Ocean the more pressing problems that need to be could provide the basis for predicting the West addressed. African monsoon rainfall anomalies especially in the western Sahel. Some of the earlier efforts aimed at understanding the climate and weather systems of West Africa In view of the emerging scientific results from date back to the 1920s. During the 1957/1958 global climate prediction models, which have the International Geophysical Year, the countries of potential of providing longer-term prediction for the subregion made a considerable effort to collect West Africa, a number of new initiatives have been meteorological and related geophysical data sets launched. These include, among other initiatives: which are among the most comprehensive available. However, it was the unprecedented droughts (a) The CLIVAR Africa Science Plan, which is in the Sahel in the late sixties and early seventies expected to increase the understanding of that led the governments of the region to establish climate variability and change and, when- the Regional Training Centre for Agrometeorology ever possible, make experimental and Operational Hydrology and their Applications predictions; (AGRHYMET) in Niamey, Niger. In addition, WMO (b) The CLIVAR Decadal Centennial and various scientific bodies and organizations Component project, which is expected to conducted weather experiments in order to improve the understanding of the longer- 216 observe, analyse and improve our understanding term variability in the North Atlantic Ocean of the monsoon regime and the associated meteo- and will undoubtedly assist in understanding rological and climatological systems in West decadal change over West Africa; Africa. Some of the earlier major experiments in (c) The PIRATA moored buoy array, which has the seventies include Operation Niger-ASECNA, already provided valuable information about Operation Pre-GATE ASECNA, the Global the dynamics of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean Atmospheric Research Programme’s Atlantic and which, if converted to an operational Tropical Experiment (GATE) and the West African system, can provide a significant facility for Monsoon Experiment (WAMEX). research and improvement in prediction; (d) A Regional hydrometeorological experiment The AGRHYMET Centre and the experiments planned for West Africa as a component of provided considerable impetus to scientists from the World Climate Research Programme’s the Region and elsewhere to study the monsoon Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment regime of West Africa. However, after the initial (GEWEX); results, the enthusiasm waned due to the absence (e) The West African Monsoon Project, a of adequate facilities in the Region. It was again project of the European Commission, which the severe droughts of the early eighties in most is expected to provide detailed observations parts of Africa that generated a surge of research and state-of- the-art modelling to provide efforts. In order to benefit from available research improved insight into the mechanism of results and spur, among other things, further climate variability over West Africa; research into the climate of Africa, the Economic (f) Training at ACMAD targeted to the develop- Commission for Africa (ECA), in collaboration ment of national seasonal forecast models, with WMO, established the African Centre of which contributes to the improvement of Meteorological Applications for Development knowledge and prediction of West African (ACMAD), based in Niamey. While ACMAD has monsoon such as the PRESAO (Seasonal been making commendable efforts, as seen from Prediction in West Africa) Forum in which the scientific papers to be presented at this WMO’s CLIPS project is involved; and Workshop, the Centre has not been able to fully (g) WMO’s Tropical Meteorology Research meet its objectives, due to limited resources. Programme, which will complement Chapter 11 — Special Sub-regional activities and challenges to NMHSs

WMO’s efforts in other areas such as CLIPS, sustainable development. On the historic and focus further attention on the West occasion of the 25th anniversary of GATE, I hope African monsoon. that the Workshop will formulate a comprehensive plan, taking into consideration The efforts by the countries of the region and the the ongoing and planned research efforts that international community are motivated by the would further contribute to the improvement of enormous potential economic and social benefits the prediction of the West African monsoon. On to be derived from enhanced monsoon the eve of the next millennium, it will be a prediction. If the gross features of rainfall message of hope for the populations of the anomalies were predicted reliably for a period of region. I wish to assure you that WMO will a few months ahead, decision makers, farmers, continue to provide the necessary support, government agencies, and river-basin authorities especially within the context of its Tropical would be able to plan adequately and avert major Meteorology Research Programme, to implement socio-economic difficulties including those linked the recommendations of the Workshop. Once to natural disasters. In this regard, the research again, we applaud the unflinching efforts of the institutions, the National Meteorological and Government of Senegal in actively promoting Hydrological Services, the specialized Centres research in weather and climate. We look such as ACMAD and AGRHYMET, as well as the forward to similar efforts from other governments scientific community from the region and in the Region so as to enhance the contribution elsewhere, have a special responsibility in these of the science of meteorology to sustainable efforts which will contribute to self-help and development.

Keynote address at the First Workshop on the Transformation of the Kenya Meteorological 217 Department into an Autonomous Agency

(Nairobi, Kenya, 6 May 2002)

Introduction meteorological and related services by the Kenya Meteorological Department and in considering, in It is indeed a pleasure and a privilege for me to a strategic way, the future set-up of the address you today on the occasion of the First Department. I understand that much Workshop on the Transformation of the Kenya consideration has already been given to this Meteorological Department into an Autonomous transformation of the Department into an Agency. For me, this opportunity is especially autonomous agency. I laud the efforts of the appreciated in that it enables me to reflect and Kenyan authorities in taking this very progressive reminisce on the years I worked and lived in step. In Africa, seventeen countries are already Kenya as a WMO expert in education and basically operating in an autonomous agency training, with strong links to the University of mode, or are nearly there. Many others are also Nairobi and the Kenya Meteorological exploring this possibility. Department. I am pleased to recognize the contribution of Kenya, the Kenya Meteorological In line with the theme of this workshop, I would Department and the University of Nairobi to the like to take this occasion to share with you some programmes and activities of WMO. Indeed, views which relate to the role and operation of Kenya hosts the WMO Subregional Office for National Meteorological Services (NMSs). These Eastern and Southern Africa, the Drought may be taken into account in the course of the Monitoring Centre, Nairobi, and one of the WMO deliberations in this workshop and other Regional Meteorological Training Centres, among discussions relating to the transformation of the other things. This workshop provides a very good Kenya Meteorological Department. The subject of opportunity to assist in reviewing the provision of the role and operation of National Meteorological Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

Services is considered a major issue facing WMO especially those in developing countries, are and its Members. This is particularly important in finding it difficult to meet even their established light of the various changes taking place which obligations to their national and international affect the National Meteorological Services — communities. their mission, functions, operations and service delivery. Indeed, the WMO Executive Council issued a formal statement on this topic, and the Areas of concern for NMSs WMO Congress, the highest policy body of the Organization, adopted the Geneva Declaration in National Meteorological Services are being called 1999 dealing with the same subject. upon to provide a wider range of products and services in response to the quest for sustainable As in Kenya, governments the world over are development and expanding user requirements in seeking more effective and efficient ways of areas such as natural disasters and seasonal delivering essential services to their national forecasting, as well as in addressing complex communities. In particular, they are seeking to policy issues like water resources management, implement more flexible, affordable and cost- climate change and other environmental effective arrangements, which are also more concerns. user-oriented, responsive and innovative, for delivering public services. They are also under Concerning natural disasters, we can vividly pressure to provide, or ensure the provision of, recall images from different parts of the world these services in the best possible way with depicting the adverse plight of people as they limited, and often declining, resources. face severe weather and climate events. In Africa, we can recall the picture of people stranded on In this overall environment of reassessment and rooftops as floodwaters ravaged Mozambique in redefinition of many of the traditional activities of the year 2000. Much of the development that government, the provision of meteorological and Mozambique had achieved since the end of the 218 related services through partially or entirely civil war in 1992 has been swept away by the government-funded NMSs has also become the worst flooding in southeastern Africa in the past subject of review in many countries. Even the century. The damages due to that flooding basic role and functioning of NMSs are being re- represent 11.6 per cent of Mozambique’s GNP. examined as part of the wide-ranging Moreover, more than one thousand lives were administrative re-definition of the public sector in lost in connection with natural disasters that response, inter alia, to the forces of economic struck four countries (Egypt, Madagascar, globalization. Cost pressures and other factors Mozambique and Zimbabwe) in 2000. For that have continued to lead to the examination of the same year, associated economic losses for just scope for asking less from the taxpayer and more five countries in Africa — Botswana, Morocco, from the user, either in the form of direct cost Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe — recovery or by including part of the infrastructure were estimated to total US$ 1.8 billion. costs in the price of commercialized meteorological products, or even privatization of With respect to Kenya, we can recall the severe NMSs in some exceptional cases. National rains, floods and landslides which transpired in Meteorological Services, in the developing the last days of April this year, an event which countries in particular, are grappling with the disrupted the lives of many in different parts of changes and challenges they face, especially in the country. Previously, there was also the light of greater emphasis on market consideration severe drought which persisted from 1998 to in a liberalized commercial environment. 2000; this resulted in a severe shortage of water for all purposes, leading to the disruption of At the same time, rapid advances in hydroelectric power supply and heavy meteorological science and technology, along industrial losses, as well as food shortages. The with increasing public expectations for improved 1997/1998 El Niño rains and subsequent floods meteorological services, present NMSs resulted in the destruction of roads, railways everywhere with the challenges of continuous and other infrastructure, as well as adverse modernization. The nature and pace of change impacts on agriculture and increased health are placing a greatly increased financial burden hazards from water-borne diseases such as on NMSs at a time when many Services, cholera. Chapter 11 — Special Sub-regional activities and challenges to NMHSs

Another challenge that NMSs are addressing is the currently, the amount of freshwater available for issue of climate change. We have been made each person in Africa is about one-quarter of what aware by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate it was in 1950, while in Asia and South America it Change (IPCC), which is co-sponsored by WMO, is about one-third of the 1950 figure. The of the relevant scientific findings, impacts and situation is deteriorating as a consequence of adaptation strategies. Even now, we are noticing rapid population growth, expanding changes in certain weather and climate patterns urbanization, as well as increased agricultural and in some parts of the world. We have been industrial use. In 2000, about 300 million Africans informed that the global average surface lived in a water-scarce environment. By 2025, the temperature is on the increase. There is new and number of countries in Africa experiencing water stronger evidence that most of the warming stress will rise to 18 — thus affecting 600 million observed over the past 50 years is attributable to people. human activities. It is noteworthy that these areas of concern being Observational records from NMSs show that the addressed by NMSs are among those that will be African continent is warmer than it was 100 years taken up in the course of the World Summit on ago. Warming through the 20th century has been Sustainable Development that will take place in at the rate of about 0.05°C per decade, with Johannesburg, South Africa, later this year. slightly greater warming in the June to August and September to November seasons than at other times. The five warmest years in Africa have The role of NMSs all occurred since 1988, with 1988 and 1995 being the two warmest years. The National Meteorological Service is usually the primary, and in many cases, the only, institution The prospect of rising sea level is one of the most within a country that is responsible for acquiring widely recognized potential impacts of climate and providing data, information, products and change with serious implications for countries services relating to weather and climate and to 219 with extensive coastlines, like Kenya, and for their application to those human activities that Small Island Developing States. In addition, there are influenced by atmospheric and related are also impacts on agriculture, food production, phenomena. It ensures the continuing collection human settlement, health and ecosystems, among and long-term custodianship of reliable national other things; all of these have a bearing on efforts meteorological and related data sets for the use of towards poverty alleviation. NMSs will play a present and future generations. It enables crucial role in assisting governments to address governments to contribute substantially to the these issues. protection of the population and the promotion of the general social and economic welfare of the Furthermore, another challenge that NMSs are community. Its mission may be conveniently helping to address is water resources defined in terms of its functions, activities and the management. The importance of water resources services it is expected to provide. in realizing sustainable development has been recognized by world leaders. To meet the water- The mission of the NMS may be expressed in related target of the United Nations Millennium terms of its contribution to the following areas: Declaration by the year 2015, an additional 1.6 billion people will have to be provided with • Protection of life and property; access to affordable safe water, and 2.2 billion • Safeguarding of the environment; people with access to adequate sanitation • Sustainable development; facilities. Considering the population growth, it is • Continuity in the observations of estimated that by the year 2025, about 17 per meteorological and related data, including cent more water will be needed to grow climatological data; sufficient food and reduce hunger. • Assessments which serve as a basis for policymaking; There are now 22 countries that have renewable • Promotion of endogenous capacity building; freshwater resources under 1 000 m3 per capita • Meeting international commitments; and per year, commonly accepted as a benchmark for • International cooperation. freshwater scarcity. Some estimates suggest that, Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

The specific functioning of an NMS depends on a spirit of mutual assistance and cooperation. the general characteristics of the particular Weather and climate systems do not recognize country in question, including the latter’s political borders and are continuously interacting. economic framework, legal system and relevant Hence, no one country can be fully self-reliant in government policies. meeting all of its requirements for meteorological services. For this reason, the NMS must also participate actively in international cooperation The NMS mission through the programmes and activities of WMO. There exists a very important mutually In view of the increasing importance of NMSs’ reinforcing relationship between the role, operations to most sectors of the national effectiveness and visibility of individual NMSs, on economy, thanks to the constant progress in the one hand, and the integrated operation of the meteorological science and technology, and entire WMO system, on the other. The given the need for effective coordination with a strengthening of NMSs contributes significantly to large number of other activities and agencies, a more effective WMO and, in turn, an enhanced governments increasingly have seen the need for WMO can greatly assist the strengthening of a clear statement of mission (or mandate) for NMSs and the effectiveness of their services to their NMSs. Such a statement usually defines the their national communities. areas in which the NMS operates to help guide decision-making with respect to priority setting and resource allocation. Additionally, State of NMSs globally

• A clear mission will assist the NMS to In this connection, a wide-ranging survey of the establish priorities and performance state of NMSs around the world and of the issues measures, to define and measure levels of confronting them as they enter the early decades service, and to identify funding requirements of the twenty-first century was undertaken by 220 and sources; WMO. This has revealed, in particular, that: • the • A clear mission helps stakeholders most important national goals served by the understand the areas of activities which are operations of NMSs are: safety of life and the responsibility of the NMS and those property, reduction of the impacts of natural which are not; disasters and national sustainable development; • A legislated mission that identifies the NMS as the official voice in issuing weather • Aviation is the most important national warnings for public safety will help minimize economic application sector served by the risks to the health and safety of citizens; NMSs, followed by disaster management, • A clear mission that defines the role for the agriculture, environmental protection and NMS in other areas, such as those outside the mass media; public sector, will help define how the NMS • The main issues currently facing NMSs are: functions in these sectors of complementary the overall level of governmental funding, activities; and modernization, provision of aeronautical • A clear mission that identifies the NMS as the services, capacity building and the role of primary national authority and official source NMSs at the national level; of information and advice on the present and • Most of the costs of providing public future state of the atmosphere and other meteorological services are met by aspects of national weather and climate, in governments; support of policy development, will enable • For the provision of specialized services to the NMS to coordinate more effectively with other sectors such as aviation, a significant the wide range of national institutions with part of the cost is met through cost-recovery responsibilities in related fields. arrangements; • The highest ratings for support received In formulating the NMS mission, it is important to from WMO are given to the areas of recognize that the NMS can only function operations, training and policy. Training, effectively and provide the required services as technical assistance and research are part of a wider global network of NMSs that identified as the three areas where enhanced freely exchange data, information and products in WMO support is most needed; and Chapter 11 — Special Sub-regional activities and challenges to NMHSs

• About 60 per cent of the respondents in which there are no available property rights consider that the level of awareness of the that can be exchanged between buyers and NMS within their countries is high to sellers (as for private goods). These may be excellent. provided by nature, such as the global climate. They can be tangible things such as defence and crime prevention methods, or they can be Contribution to socio-economic internationally accepted rules and guidelines such development as those on multilateral trading. They normally have two characteristics – they cannot be The provision of meteorological services exclusively appropriated to a person or group; contributes to the socio-economic development and once produced, their consumption by a of nations in four ways. Firstly, through their person or group does not reduce their availability substantial contribution to the safety of their to others. At the same time, the creation of this citizens and the protection of their property from “public good” generally entails considerable severe weather systems, they help avert much of financial outlay by the government. The the potential social and economic devastation operation of NMSs was, until the early 1990s, from natural disasters and hasten the mitigation of funded very largely by governments. In some their impacts. Secondly, since sustainable countries, part of the funding has come from development requires that the quality of the major user groups such as civil aviation or nation’s environment be maintained, maritime transport. More recently, there has been meteorological services in support of an increasing call for at least some of the services environmental protection play a vital role in provided by NMSs to be paid for by the users of overall strategy for national development. Thirdly, those services through some form of direct cost in the formulation of many major socio-economic recovery. In some countries, for example in development projects (e.g. agricultural planning, Europe, NMSs have been authorized to charge for water supply systems, transport infrastructure), part of the infrastructure costs in the prices of reliable climate and hydrological data are essential commercialized meteorological products, while 221 prerequisites to project design. Fourthly, the in a few cases, the legal status of the NMS has successful operation of such projects, once been as a privatized entity, even though its completed, will in many cases require funding continues to come mostly from meteorological support for which provision must government sources. be made at the planning stage. In any case, it should be very clear that whatever The timely and proper use of weather and climate form or model the NMS takes, it is imperative that information brings evident social and economic government financial support, directly or through benefits, particularly through the prevention of “government-as-customer” contracts, is provided damage. Conversely, failure to take measures to operate and maintain the required relevant based on the hydrometeorological information basic infrastructure. and services received from the NMS can lead to enormous damage and human loss. The quantifi- It is essential to draw attention to the fact that the cation of these benefits and losses conclusively cost of the data-collection, -transmission and - demonstrates the importance of the appropriate processing systems is such a substantial part of use of such hydrometeorological information and NMSs’ expenses that it would be illusory to think services. that their international commitments, under the WMO Convention and other related environmental treaties and agreements, Funding of NMSs particularly those related to free and unrestricted exchange of data between WMO Members, could To a large extent, the products and services be met without guaranteed public funding of provided by the NMS contribute to the collective these activities. Neither today nor in the well-being of humankind through the many foreseeable future does a commercial market applications related to human safety, research and exist which is capable of meeting the education. The corresponding products involving corresponding infrastructure costs properly. a non-profit-making use may be considered as “public goods”. An economic public good is one Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development Legal instruments governing NMSs’ interaction with the the operations of an NMS private sector

A suitable legal framework is an essential element While current policies and practices vary widely in the consideration of the functioning of an between countries, there is little doubt that the NMS. The Thirteenth World Meteorological working relationships between NMSs and the Congress affirmed in 1999 that “a pertinent meteorological private sector, the media and national legal instrument which defined the academia will become an increasingly important mission and mandate of an NMHS was crucial in influence on the future role and operation of the ensuring that the NMHS’s contribution to society NMSs themselves. There is scope for much more was appropriately recognized and its effective strategic alliances between the NMS responsibilities well-defined to ensure an community and the national and international effective role for, and operation of, the NMHS”. private sector and media, consistent with the The mission statement should be part of a respective capabilities and comparative strengths legislated “Meteorological Act” or other formal of each sector. government policy directive. The range of functions of any NMS should also be clearly The essential policy foundation for an effective defined and agreed in the pertinent legal strategic alliance between the NMS and private instrument. The advantages of such a legal sector service providers is the acknowledgement instrument are: by the private sector of the role of the NMS as the single official voice at the national level for • Formal promulgation of the mission forecasts and warnings bearing on the safety of statement of the NMS; life and property; coupled with commitment by • Clear definition of the duties and areas of the NMS to ensure that any role it assumes in the responsibility of the NMS, which is of great provision of value-added specialized services is 222 benefit to both the NMS and the carried out under conditions of competitive government; neutrality with the private sector. Both parties • Once defined and passed by the appropriate stand to benefit, in terms of their capability to legislative or governmental body, provision perform their complementary roles, from their of a basis for determining the level of shared interest in ensuring stable long-term funding needed to fulfil the agreed role; government funding for the underpinning • Clear designation of the NMS as the “official” infrastructure which is essential to public and weather, climate and flood warning service private service provisions alike. and as the “National Authority” in warning situations, to avoid public confusion; • Provision for legal protection of field The NMS, alternative service equipment and of officers in furtherance of delivery and the future their duties; • Guarantee of direct access to essential In exploring alternative futures for the NMS, as is international communications; now being done for the Kenya Meteorological • Provision of authority to regulate or oversee Department, the primary objective should be to weather and climate activities in the country; achieve the essential NMS mission, in the most and, effective and efficient manner, in support of the • In appropriate circumstances, provision for needs of the society it serves and in light of rele- revenues earned to be retained to improve vant trends and developments. In this connection, the NMS. it is important to underscore that the primary products and services provided by NMSs are The establishment of a legal instrument public goods for the public interest; and public governing the operation of the NMS will be funding (i.e. government support) will be essen- dependent on a range of political, social, legal, tial. This is particularly true with respect to the economic and cultural influences for the basic NMS infrastructure and the basic public community concerned. weather services provided. Chapter 11 — Special Sub-regional activities and challenges to NMHSs

Certainly, there is scope for alternative and addi- exchange, as well as provide information, tional resources for specialized, value-added ser- assessment and advice pertinent to national vices. With respect to these services, cost-recov- policy formulation and decision-making. ery arrangements and/or commercial activities can be explored. Nonetheless, these can only be In this connection, it is also important to truly feasible if the basic infrastructure and basic underscore that any national strategy for the services are in place and functional. In consider- provision of meteorological and related services ing the transformation of an NMS, it would be should build upon, and not weaken, the advantageous for the country if the NMS were framework of international cooperation. able to operate in such a way that it has greater International collaboration is needed because flexibility in entering into strategic partnerships global data and information are required to with other institutions and sectors of importance address growing environmental issues, and there to society. For instance, an NMS, such as the is greater cost-effectiveness in cooperation than Kenya Meteorological Department, which can in competing or acting independently. In light of explore more fully the possibilities of interacting the above, and experience thus far, the WMO closely with the shipping, aviation, trade and Executive Council has suggested that countries commercial sectors, can lead to improved ser- may find it helpful to take into account certain vices provision and enhance its capability, which basic considerations when contemplating options in turn redounds to the benefit of society. for alternative service delivery.

Moreover, a reinforced NMS can contribute more Moreover, any proposed transformation of the effectively to the realization of the objectives NMS should be treated as a process that needs contained in the national development plan, such careful preparation and which will need to take as those that may relate to poverty alleviation, place over an appropriate period of time. The food security, water resources management, strong interaction between NMSs and WMO protection of life and property, safeguarding the should also be borne in mind. environment and sustainable development. The 223 NMS should be able to provide an appropriate range of useful services whose socio-economic Concluding remarks value can be demonstrated in relation to their impact in decision-making at different levels for It is hoped that this presentation will be of help various activities. in the development of a strategic approach for the assessment and management of NMSs, Furthermore, the NMS should be in a position to particularly as steps are taken in the take initiatives to promote and establish strategic transformation of the Kenya Meteorological alliances and cooperation with relevant Department. I am confident that appropriate institutions within their respective countries, actions are being taken to ensure the such as with other government agencies (e.g. enhancement of the Department’s capability to those involved with agriculture, transport, serve the Kenyan people as well as the rest of environment, energy, tourism), academic Africa. institutions and non-governmental organizations, including the private sector. This fosters an As reflection is made about changes and interdisciplinary approach to pertinent areas of transformation, we need to recognize that we are concern, which is of benefit to society. In in a dynamic situation. In this day of high-speed addition, the NMS should be able to position itself communication, the Internet, advanced clearly in the minds of its various constituencies computers and sophisticated satellites, we must so that its contributions to society can be better continually consider and adapt to the changing understood and appreciated. It should be able to situation. It is imperative that we should be demonstrate that it contributes in irreplaceable innovative. We could very well adopt the slogan ways to the goals that society cherishes. Also, it “Innovate or Stagnate”. In this day and age of should be able to assert its authoritative scientific rapid change, to stand still is to be left behind. voice in relevant issues such as climate change, natural disaster mitigation and international data Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development Asia and South Pacific

Keynote address at the opening of the WMO Workshop on Regional Transboundary Smoke and Haze in South-East Asia

(Singapore, 2 June 1998)

I would like to express my appreciation and So extreme was the 1994 haze episode that the gratitude to the Government of Singapore for ASEAN Ministerial-Level Meeting on Management hosting this most important Workshop. I wish to of Transboundary Pollution was convened to thank Mr Woon Shih Lai, Director of the develop a regional cooperation plan on Meteorological Service and Permanent transboundary pollution. WMO was requested to Representative of Singapore with WMO, for his provide assistance in the formulation of a project kind invitation to me, and for the excellent proposal for technical assistance. arrangements made to ensure the success of this workshop. Based on this request, WMO sent a team of experts to the ASEAN countries in 1996 to The hosting of this session is another indication apprise itself of with national and regional 224 of the strong commitment of the Singapore capabilities in the areas of detecting, monitoring Government to meteorology and to the and tracking fire-related smoke and haze. The programmes and activities of the World team reviewed the capabilities of satellite imagery Meteorological Organization (WMO). For to detect aerosols, and also the transport models example, Singapore is host to the ASEAN for the diffusion and dispersion of smoke and Specialized Meteorological Centre (ASMC), which haze and the available meteorological forecast has developed its facilities and capabilities over products. The result of the study was the the years to effectively serve the special needs of development of a Programme to Address ASEAN ASEAN WMO Member countries. It is most Regional Transboundary Smoke (PARTS) by appropriate that the Workshop is being held in WMO in cooperation with the United Nations the same location as the Centre which has Environment Programme (UNEP) and the United continued to play a substantial role in the States of America. A task for this Workshop is to activities related to smoke and haze over the last discuss the implementation of the component several months. WMO is very pleased that the projects of the Programme. Singapore Meteorological Service and the Asian Development Bank have co-sponsored the Forest and bush fires resulting from drought Workshop. conditions caused by El Niño and other climatic variations have not been confined to South-East The problems associated with the forest and bush Asia. We have had repeated bush fires in Australia fires in South-East Asia have long been recognized over the years, in addition to the highly by scientists. Past experience dating back to the publicized forest fires of northeastern Brazil, and 1980s shows that reduced rainfall and drought even more recently, forest fires in Mexico. conditions during strong El Niño permitted Pollution and decreasing air quality caused by the ignited fires in a small area to spread over larger fires contribute to changes in the composition areas. During the 1982/1983 and 1994/1995 El and chemistry of the global atmosphere. The Niño events, the region experienced severe industrial age has also brought about considerable smoke and haze episodes which interfered with increases in the levels of pollution in the civil aviation and maritime shipping. The health atmosphere, on land, rivers and lakes and in the of downwind populations was also compromised. oceans, all resulting in increasing concentrations Chapter 11 — Special Sub-regional activities and challenges to NMHSs of greenhouse gases, acid deposition, depletion of — Bukit Koto Tabang on the Island of Sumatra — the ozone layer, and freshwater stresses. The was officially opened in December 1996 under a resulting environmental changes and the impacts Global Environment Facility project. This GAW on climate are having major consequences for global and regional network of observatories has humanity. These have become urgent contributed to our understanding of the changing environmental issues that face the world today, as chemistry of the atmosphere in the region, and recognized by governments at the 1992 United has been the key to monitoring the Nations Conference on the Environment and environmental pollutants in both the urban and Development (UNCED) in Rio, as well as the rural areas in Indonesia and in the downwind Conference of the Parties to the United Nations countries during smoke and haze episodes. Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Parties to the Montreal Protocol on Another relevant WMO Programme is the World Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. Weather Watch (WWW). Under the Programme, a number of Regional/Specialized Meteorological For many years, WMO and the National Centres have been established around the world Meteorological Services (NMSs) have been to use special transport models for the prediction responding to the environmental aspects of these of the dispersion of air pollutants during and related situations, and WMO has collaborated environmental emergencies. Some of these with many partner organizations in the process, Specialized Centres have had considerable such as UNEP, the organizers of the International experience especially during the Chernobyl Global Atmosphere Chemistry Project (IGAC) and accident and the Kuwait oil fires. On the occasion many others. In this regard, a major WMO of the 1997/1998 forest fires event in South-East Programme called the Global Atmosphere Watch Asia, the Specialized Centres in Australia, France — or GAW — has been developed, in and the United States, as well as the ASEAN collaboration with the NMSs and research Specialized Meteorological Centre, applied their institutions, to integrate atmospheric chemistry transportation models to forecast smoke and haze research and the monitoring of greenhouse gases, dispersion. The output products were made 225 the ozone layer, the long-range transport of available on the respective Internet Web servers pollutants, including the acidity and toxicity of of these Centres for those that needed the rain and the atmospheric aerosols. GAW data over information. The products also included the years have shown that large-scale biosphere processed satellite images to help identify hot burning impacts on the climate and the spots and the smoke/haze distribution. However, environment. The levels of elemental carbon it is to be recognized that the specific forecast particles in the atmosphere are increased as a methodology was not set up for use in the result, and only relatively recently have situation of widespread fires, as the methodology researchers realized the detrimental contributions depended upon a point source rather than multi- that biomass burning makes to the global budget point emission sources. The forecast accuracy of the radiatively and chemically active was therefore difficult to assess since the actual atmospheric gases such as carbon dioxide, fire sources and their emission rates were not methane, nitric oxide and tropospheric ozone. adequately and timely known to the Centres Biomass burning is now well recognized as a involved. significant source of atmospheric pollution. Consequently, efforts are now needed to modify GAW has been strengthened over the years and the atmospheric transport models to overcome today comprises a system of global stations with this deficiency so that the output products will extensive research and monitoring programmes, suit the needs of the users. Also, the mechanisms as well as regional stations to carry out for requesting meteorological support and the monitoring and research to satisfy regional needs means to access the information provided need to (see Figure 1.8). Over the last decade, a number be further improved. This Workshop will be of GAW regional stations have been established in addressing all these issues. South-East Asia, specifically in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and here in In addition to WMO, many other UN agencies have Singapore. One of the longest running regional expressed their concern over the South-East Asian stations is at Tanah Rata in the Cameron forest fires. Because of the linkage between the Highlands of Malaysia. A GAW Global Observatory 1997/1998 El Niño and the fires and other major Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

climatic events around the world, the United to putting out fires when a determination has Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution in been made from meteorological conditions of the December 1997 entitled “International risks of developing into a larger scale fire. Cooperation to Reduce the Impact of the El Niño Phenomenon”. This Resolution, among other In conclusion, I would like to request the things, called on WMO and other UN participants at this Workshop to place emphasis Organizations to contribute further to a compre- on the following important issues: hensive approach and study of El Niño and its socio-economic impacts and to intensify coopera- • An assessment of the current monitoring tion with the affected regions, such as South-East system and improvements which could be Asia. The UN also established an Inter-Agency Task made to enhance this capability in South-East Force on El Niño in which WMO was given the Asia; lead role to address the science and technology • The performance of and improvements to and related meteorological and hydrological the transport models (of special interest will aspects. The Secretary-General of the United be discussions on the development of Nations has also set up a special Task Force on the models which can deal with multi-point South-East Asian Forest Fires, whose activities are emission sources); to be coordinated by UNEP. WMO continues to • The role of satellites in detecting fires and cooperate very closely with this body. the aerosols, and in tracking the movement of the resulting smoke and haze; This workshop therefore provides an excellent • Improvements in the training of scientists in opportunity to foster international and regional the region to deal with these events; and cooperation as we discuss what has been learned • Improvements in the exchange of during the last fire season which created a information and coordination of activities disaster in South-East Asia. Concerns that have among national authorities, Meteorological arisen from the unfortunate experience include: Services and other international and regional 226 agencies concerned. (a) The need of the governments of the region to further strengthen the capacities of their I look forward to receiving your priority action respective National Meteorological Services items and proposals for their implementation. I to better provide the timely warnings want to assure you that WMO will do what it needed to assist decision makers (such can, and where necessary in close cooperation strengthening will include the networks, with partners, in the implementation of proposed equipment and manpower); actions. (b) The need for adequate preparedness.

Governments should also put in place (Note: Concerning climate change and the institutional mechanisms for responding quickly Islands of the South Pacific see Chapter 6.) Chapter 11 — Special Sub-regional activities and challenges to NMHSs

Working together towards enhancing NMSs in Asia1

Statement at the opening of the Third Technical Conference on Management of National Meteorological Services (NMSs) in Region II (Asia) (Muscat, Oman, 14 December 2002)

I wish to take this opportunity to express my regional and global levels.” The theme “Working appreciation and that of the World together towards enhancing NMSs in Asia” is Meteorological Organization (WMO) to you, your therefore most appropriate for this Conference at Excellency, and through you, to the Government a time when the Services are being called upon to of His Majesty Sultan Qaboos Bin Said, the Sultan contribute to national efforts in addressing the of Oman, for hosting this important event and for challenges of socio-economic development and the warm reception and generous hospitality environmental protection. accorded to us since our arrival here. The presence of Your Excellencies is a further For the Conference to make consolidated demonstration of your support and that of the proposals, it will have to take stock of the various Sultanate of Oman to the programmes and factors that influence the operations and activities of WMO. In particular, over the years, development of the NMSs, including the rapid the Sultanate has hosted several important WMO development in science and technology, the events. I am also thankful to Mr Sultan Bin Yaroub prevailing socio-economic conditions, the Al-Saifi, Permanent Representative of Oman with national development goals, and the major WMO, and his staff, for the excellent regional and global policy statements and action arrangements made to ensure the success of the plans emanating from major conferences such as Conference. the WSSD and the Third United Nations Conference on Least Developed Countries 227 This Conference is the third in a series of such (LDCs), held in Belgium in 2001. In this overall conferences organized by WMO for Directors and context, of particular relevance to the senior officials of National Meteorological Conference is the “Strategic Plan for the Services (NMSs) in the Asian Region. Being the Enhancement of National Meteorological Services first in the new century, the Conference provides in Asia (2001-2004)”, approved by the twelfth a unique opportunity for the exchange of views session of RA II held in the Republic of Korea in and experience on current challenges and those September 2000, and the outcome of the that NMSs will face over the next decade or so. Technical Conference on NMSs of LDCs in Asia, These are also highlighted in WMO’s Sixth Long- held in Bangkok in October 2002. As we are half term Plan for the period 2004-2011. We expect way through the implementation period of the the Conference to prioritize the challenges and Strategic Plan, I hope that the Conference will propose appropriate strategies for the review the achievements thus far and provide strengthening of the NMSs, especially through guidance on updates and further actions that cooperative efforts, in support of sustainable would be required to ensure the successful and development of their respective countries. In this timely implementation of the Plan. Among other respect, it is to be recalled that the World Summit things, consideration should be given to key on Sustainable Development (WSSD), held in management issues that have implications for the Johannesburg, South Africa, in August/September role and operations of NMSs and the cooperation of this year, had called upon nations to “assure among them. In this connection, I would like to collective responsibility to advance and offer brief general comments on some of the strengthen the interdependent and mutually related issues. reinforcing pillars of sustainable development — economic development, social development and First, an important factor that impedes the socio- environmental protection at local, national, economic development of the countries in Asia

1 Among those present were His Excellency, Mr Malik Suliman, Minister of Transport and Communications, His Excellency Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdullah Al-Harthi, Under Secretary of Ministry of Transport and Communications, Mr Abdul Majeed Hussain Isa, Acting president of Regional Association II (Asia), and Mr Sultan Bin Yarub Al-Saifi, Permanent Representative of the Sultanate of Oman with WMO. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

and requires close collaboration among the NMSs issues, WMO is collaborating with a number of is the recurrent weather- and climate-related countries in the region, through its Hydrology extremes such as floods, droughts and tropical and Water Resources Programme. Among other cyclones. We recall some of the major extreme things, WMO is actively promoting the events that were experienced this year in some development and implementation of the Aral Sea- countries of the Region. The flood in Hunan HYCOS, Black Sea- HYCOS, Himalaya-HYCOS and Province, China, in summer was the worst since Mekong-HYCOS, designed to improve regional 1998. Similarly, floods in Bangladesh, India and freshwater assessment and management by using Nepal have caused, among other things, modern satellite-based technology (see widespread destruction of livestock, crops and Figure 7.7). In addition, WMO is collaborating infrastructure. Furthermore, record-breaking with regional organizations such as the Mekong droughts have severely affected a number of River Commission, the Economic Cooperation Middle East countries and the area from Central Organization (ECO) and the International Centre Asia to northern China. World-wide drought and for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) desertification seriously threaten the livelihood of in addressing water-related issues and in over 1.2 billion people. In this connection, promoting hydrological forecasting. In this preserving dry land ecosystem productivity is a regard, the Conference may develop the major challenge in combating hunger and poverty framework for consolidated regional strategy and in many parts of Asia. make proposals for its implementation, within a given time frame. Here in the Sultanate of Oman, on 10 May, a cyclonic storm made landfall in the Dhofar Third, developments in science and technology region. The storm flooded the region and provide opportunities for their applications in adversely affected social and economic activities observing and monitoring, in telecommunications and caused damages to infrastructure and the and in computer and satellite technologies in environment. In April and May, Bangladesh was support of meteorological and hydrological 228 hit five times by tropical storms, killing 23 peo- activities. Experience in this region and ple. Typhoon Rusa struck the Republic of Korea elsewhere has shown that these developments in August. It was the most powerful typhoon to contribute to improvements in the quality and hit the country since 1959. While the damage quantity of data and products available to NMSs and even deaths cannot always be avoided, and the user communities. For this purpose, high improved warnings provided by the NMSs have priority should be given to the strengthening of led, in most cases, to drastic reduction in the loss the World Weather Watch basic system in certain of human lives, in this region as in other parts of parts of the region. Some of the ensuing benefits the world. The coordinated actions taken include the production and availability of through the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee sophisticated numerical weather prediction and the WMO/ESCAP Tropical Cyclone Panel (NWP) outputs for short-range weather forecasts have greatly contributed to the improved capabil- and increased accuracy within the medium range. ities of NMSs and the Regional Specialized Other valuable products comprise seasonal Meteorological Centres (RSMCs). The Directors, forecasts and climate prediction including those with the support of their respective govern- related to the summer and winter monsoons in ments, should therefore continue to give high Asia. This is possible today as some of the climate priority to the maintenance of an effective and models can now be used to provide climate efficient early-warning system. This requires outlooks at multi-seasonal to interannual time regional coordination, for the safety of the popu- scales, especially using current prediction lation and the security of the national economy, capability of El Niño and La Niña. In addition, the as a vital part of the management of any NMS. NMSs should develop their emergency response activities so that they can provide specialized Second, a major problem facing this region is the information in case of human-induced and other availability of adequate clean fresh water. This is environmental emergencies. The Conference particularly acute in some countries which are should therefore consider ways in which affected by recurrent droughts and are prone to individual NMSs could be strengthened and desertification. The situation is often aggravated regional capabilities enhanced so that, within a by lack of storage and effective delivery facilities. reasonable time frame, all the Services of the To deal with water assessment and management Region could fully avail themselves of such Chapter 11 — Special Sub-regional activities and challenges to NMHSs opportunities and be adequately prepared to alternative methods of delivering privatization. meet the developmental challenges of their The NMSs of the future may be quite different respective nations. from what they have traditionally been. Today, decision makers, industrialists, and the public at Fourth, a major concern for the world community large are becoming increasingly knowledgeable is the threat of climate change and its impact on about weather- and climate-related occurrences society. The WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental that have significant socio-economic impacts. Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has projected However, there is growing pressure on NMSs to that climate change will most likely lead, among clearly demonstrate the significant socio- other things, to increased occurrences of economic benefits that may be derived from the droughts in some regions and floods in others. applications of meteorology and hydrology, in Sea- level rise will cause coastal erosion, salt-water order to ensure the continuing support of their intrusion and damage to agriculture. In order to respective governments, even during difficult provide relevant scientific information for policy economic periods. While the actual model or formulation, it is essential for the NMSs to form of the NMS will depend, among other continue to participate actively in the work of the things, on the socio-economic conditions in each IPCC. They should also contribute to enhanced country, current experience, drawn from various monitoring of pollutants as well as to national parts of the world, indicates that governments efforts in the implementation of activities related should continue to provide support to NMSs for to the United Nations Convention to Combat their smooth operation in the national and global Desertification (UNCCD), the United Nations interest. Furthermore, the development of Framework Convention on Climate Change alternative methods of delivering services at the (UNFCCC), and the Vienna Convention on the national level should not impair the international Protection of the Ozone Layer and its Montreal system for monitoring, for free and unrestricted Protocol and Amendents, especially in the exchange of data and products, and for the preparation and implementation of national provision of effective services in the national and action plans and national communications on global interest. A stronger NMS will be able to 229 climate change, desertification and ozone. provide cost-effective services and warnings for the safety of life and property, which invariably Fifth, overall management strategy should include remains the responsibility of the government. enhanced cooperation in sustainable human resources development and improvement of Finally, there is a need to codify the core mission corresponding training facilities. In the region, six of NMSs in national legislation or some other WMO Regional Meteorological Training Centres formal instruments, and the recognition that the (RMTCs) complement national efforts in meeting primary role of NMSs is in the domain of the some of the requirements. WMO has been public good. NMSs should therefore have a very assisting these Centres and the NMSs in their dynamic structure so that special attention may human resources development plans through, be given to climate and weather phenomena or among other things, the provision of fellowships, events of concern to their countries. In addition, organization of training events and support to the adequate attention should be given to the regional centres. In the framework of the visibility and status of NMSs. In this regard, there Strategic Plan for the Enhancement of NMSs in is a need to strengthen cooperation with the Asia, I would urge the Conference to review the media, the academic community, non- overall situation related to human resources governmental organizations and the private development and, as necessary, make specific sector, while highlighting the operational and proposals to improve the situation in the scientific nature of NMSs. medium-and long-term. The proposals should take into account the training plans of individual Regional and international cooperation remain services, staff motivation and the requirements the cornerstone for improved and effective for the training of personnel at management and meteorological and hydrological services to the supervisory levels, and in specialized fields such communities. Asia has NMSs which are at various as public information. levels of development and, no doubt, increased mutual support will be beneficial to the region as Sixth, the advent of globalization and market-led a whole. While I am aware that some of the economies have led some Services to look for requirements are satisfied bilaterally, I would Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

nevertheless urge the more developed Services to Enhancement of NMSs in Asia, through the assist the others in the Region for mutual benefit. formulation and implementation of joint In this way, we could all contribute to “bridging programmes and projects. Let me conclude by the gap” between developing and more assuring the Conference of WMO’s commitment developed Services, in the sense that every NMS to assist the NMSs in the accomplishment of their should have the possibility to access all tasks, individually and collectively. I will urge all meteorological data and products required in of you to participate in the Fourteenth World support of national socio-economic development. Meteorological Congress which will be held in I would therefore encourage the Conference to Geneva in May 2003, so that we may together find ways of meeting some of the requirements define the future targets for both the highlighted in the Regional Strategic Plan for Organization and the Services.

Americas1

Statement on the occasion of the Forty-second Meeting of the Caribbean Meteorological Council2

(St. Georges, Grenada, 5 December 2002)

It is opportune for me to say a few words about Directors for their commitment to the spirit of 230 CMO. Since its formal inauguration in 1973, the cooperation that is represented by the CMO. You CMO, whose history can be traced to the may be pleased to know that other regions of the Caribbean Meteorological Service established in world, such as the South Pacific Island States, 1951, has served the region in an exemplary and look to the CMO as a model of regional cost-effective manner. It also represents a shining cooperation in meteorology. model of tangible cooperation and self-help among its Members in addressing weather- and I am pleased to state that over the years the CMO climate-related issues. The English-speaking has developed a most fruitful relationship with Caribbean had realized quite early that weather WMO. As you may be aware, as a follow-up to and climate know no national nor economic your proposal, a formal working arrangement has boundaries. It was therefore considered essential been established between CMO and WMO. In this to cooperate with neighbouring countries to regard, I wish to commend Mr Sutherland, an effectively address the related phenomena. active member of the WMO Executive Council, Today, the CMO represents a strategic instrument for his dedication in ensuring that the long- to the Caribbean Community in its quest for standing cooperation between our two ensuring the safety of life and property, in organizations is set on a firm footing. I also wish sustainable development and in long-term to pay tribute to his predecessor Mr B. Berridge, a planning. I therefore wish to pay tribute to the former Vice-President of WMO, for his valuable Caribbean Community and to the founding contributions to the strengthening of the fathers of the CMO for their foresight, and to the cooperation between WMO and the CMO. I am succeeding generations of the Directors of sure that the formal working arrangement will Meteorological Services and Coordinating further reinforce the mutually beneficial

1 Editor’s Note: Among the addresses given by Professor Obasi in the Americas, one presented on Management of Change in NMHSs is included in Chapter 14. He also presented a set of challenges at a joint technical conference of Regional Association III (South America) and IV (North America) in Panama City, January 2003, which were similar to those included in the previous address delivered in Muscat, Oman.

2 Among these present were Her Excellency Ms Brenda Hood, Minister of Tourism, Civil Aviation, Social Services & Gender and Family Affairs, the Honourable Ministers of Member Countries of the Caribbean Community, a Distinguished Representative of the Secretary-General of the Caribbean Community Mr Tyrone W. Sutherland, Coordinating Director, Caribbean Meteorological Organization and Representatives of International Organizations, Heads of Meteorological Services. Chapter 11 — Special Sub-regional activities and challenges to NMHSs relationship between CMO and WMO that has setting back development by five years. Severe been fostered over the years by the Directors of damage and the destruction caused by hurricanes National Meteorological Services (NMSs) of the Gilbert (1988), Hugo (1989), Georges (1998), region and the Coordinating Directors of CMO. Mitch (1998), Floyd (1999) and more recently Isadore and Lily this year are a constant reminder We are aware of the cooperative spirit espoused that these phenomena have to be taken into by the Caribbean Community and its acute account in national sustainable development concern for the safety, security and well-being of plans. Over the period 1955–2001, it is estimated its population. This was expressed by the 1994 that the average damage caused by hurricanes to Global Conference on Small Island Developing the economy of this region has been about one States (SIDS) which was hosted by the billion US dollars per year, that is a staggering Government of Barbados. I attended and 47 billion US dollars in total. addressed that Conference. The Conference drew global attention to environmental problems of Apart from the deaths, hurricanes cause these States and also set a forward-looking widespread human suffering, in several cases Barbados Programme of Action for dealing with rendering more than 50 per cent of the them. Among other things, the Conference noted population homeless. They often remove the that the economies of the countries were highly means of livelihood from many people by vulnerable to weather and climate as well as to destroying infrastructure, crops and fishing boats. environmental and societal changes. The The proportion of fixed capital formation Programme of Action was reviewed at the World destroyed by a major storm hitting a Caribbean Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) held country can vary from under 1 per cent to about in Johannesburg, South Africa, in 30 per cent. In small developing countries, August/September 2002. The main outcomes of hurricanes have been known to set back national WSSD comprise the Johannesburg Declaration on economies by several years. Other disasters Sustainable Development and the Plan of include major floods and severe droughts, which Implementation. Inter alia, they call for support occur from time to time and affect water 231 to SIDS and appropriate national and regional availability and agricultural production, which is organizations in the area of risk management, a primary economic activity in the region. disaster prevention, mitigation and preparedness, as well as in the mobilization of adequate In dealing with such natural disasters, it is resources and partnerships for their adaptation of noteworthy that CMO works closely with national needs to adverse effects of climate variability, and regional agencies involved in disaster climate change, and sea-level rise. Addressing preparedness, response and relief as well as with these issues is essential for the effective WMO, especially in the context of the WMO implementation of government development Hurricane Committee. The International Strategy plans and efforts by other stakeholders in the for Disaster Reduction provides a focus for alleviation of poverty, hunger, food insecurity and undertaking preventive actions against natural the sustainable management of natural resources disasters. Recently, WMO collaborated with the including fresh water and coastal zones. CMO in the formulation of a European Union (EU)-funded radar project which is expected to I would now like to make some general be operational within the next few months. comments on some of the weather- and climate- WMO will continue to assist the CMO, as the related concerns of the Member countries of the implementing agency, with technical region, and the actions underway to address them backstopping and in parts of the training in collaboration with WMO. component of the project.

First, natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods To derive optimum benefits from such projects, it and droughts represent a recurrent threat to is essential to further strengthen the capabilities vulnerable national economies. In the past 40 of National Meteorological Services (NMSs) in years, thousands of lives have been lost due to operational areas related to the mitigation and major hurricanes. For example, in the Caribbean early response to natural disasters and in the region, hurricane Flora killed about 8 000 people provision of appropriate services. In particular, in 1963 and hurricane Fifi killed 3 000 people in there is a need to enhance their basic 1974. In 1979, a hurricane affected Dominica, infrastructure and capacity through the Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

maintenance of their basic functions related to islands where the limited ground water is World Weather Watch (WWW) and in developing protected by a thin permeable soil. Lack of corresponding strategies. In this regard, WMO storage and effective delivery facilities make this has been assisting the Meteorological Services problem serious across the region. To deal with through several projects, mostly by collaborating aspects of this issue, WMO and CMO are working with the CMO. For example, WMO is assisting in together on the development and the upgrade of the telecommunication systems implementation of the Caribbean Hydrological including those of the non-forecast offices; the Cycle Observing System project (CARIB-HYCOS), provision of several Automatic Weather Stations designed to improve regional freshwater in areas which have never had observing stations; assessment and management by using modern the replacement of old hydrogen generators for satellite-based technology. the CMO upper-air network; and short-term fellowships. Fourth, a major concern for the SIDS today and for years to come is the threat of climate change A second issue that concerns the Region is the and its impacts. In this regard, one of the most recurrent El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) serious environmental challenges facing the phenomena, which often leads to flood or Caribbean region is sea-level rise, with associated drought conditions. These phenomena have been coastal erosion and salt-water intrusion into more frequent, persistent and intense since the estuaries and aquifers, damage to agriculture and mid-1970s, compared with those of the previous mangroves, coral reef bleaching and adverse 100 years. It is needless to emphasize that, impact on tourism. One of the most severe coral- globally, the climatic phenomena associated with bleaching events in the Caribbean was past ENSO events have inflicted untold socio- experienced in 1987, and evidence has shown economic disruption in many countries. For that it was related to high ocean temperatures. example, the 1997/1998 El Niño event alone There will be changes in rainfall patterns with the affected 110 million people and cost 96 billion US occurrence of severe droughts in some areas and 232 dollars in damages. However, during this El Niño floods in others. period, the tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic hurricane basin was below normal. In order to address the climate change issue as envisaged by the World Summit on Sustainable Considerable progress has been made in the Development, I am pleased that the Caribbean prediction of this phenomenon. Therefore, a region has been implementing the project on strengthened NMS will enable it to provide Preparedness to Climate Variability and Global reliable seasonal forecasts for long-term planning. Change to Small Developing States (SIDS)- In this regard, a major project funded by the Caribbean. The Project is expected to provide the Inter-American Development Bank is the Study on necessary tools for better sustainable the Prediction and Amelioration of the Socio- development planning. This will be done through economic Impacts of El Niño in Latin America a strengthening of the National Meteorological and the Caribbean, which will be completed by Services so that they are able to provide the the end of this year. The outcome of the study information needed for planning purposes at includes the preparation of project proposals and national and international levels. In particular, the implementation plans for El Niño Early Warning Project will comprise various components Systems and their subsequent application in relating to the improvement of the interested countries. The project has benefited telecommunication systems, rehabilitation and from inputs provided by WMO, the International upgrading of the observing network, upgrading Research Institute (IRI), the International Food of the database, training and awareness- building. Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the National In addition, the Project will also enable the Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration countries to enhance their expertise in fulfilling (NOAA). I hope that all the Member countries of their international commitments such as those CMO will participate in the El Niño Early Warning related to the United Nations Framework Systems. Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (CCD), A third problem facing this region is the the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and availability and quality of fresh water resources. the Convention on the Protection of the Ozone This is particularly acute for low-lying coral-based Layer. Chapter 11 — Special Sub-regional activities and challenges to NMHSs

Fifth, the advent of globalization and market-led Centre and a WMO Climate, Computing economies have led some Services to look for (CLICOM) Centre for the region. It provides alternative methods of delivering services such as expertise for various development projects and through cost-recovery, commercialization and has initiated various activities that address the even privatization. While the actual model or concerns of the region in areas such as climate form of the NMS will depend, among other change, including the monitoring of sea level. For things, on the socio-economic conditions in each WMO, the Institute stands out as a model of country, the governments should provide cooperation in capacity building. I would financial support to NMSs for their smooth therefore like to urge that further support be operation and for the maintenance of the basic given to the Institute. As with similar Regional infrastructure, monitoring facilities and services Meteorological Training Centres, WMO will in the national and global interest. A stronger continue to work closely with the Institute and NMS will be able to provide cost-effective the NMSs in addressing their human resources services and warnings for the safety of life and development needs. property, which invariably remain the responsibility of the government. Finally, there is growing acceptance among the international community for developing Sixth, in order to enable the NMSs to take full partnerships in addressing the sustainable advantage of the most up-to-date developments development concerns, especially those of in science and technology, WMO has been developing countries. As promoted by the organizing technical conferences on Caribbean Community, the CMO has been management of the Services. In this regard, the collaborating with a number of regional Services should develop appropriate strategies institutions such as the University of West Indies that will enable them to develop specialized and the Caribbean Development Bank. Such ties products that will meet national requirements should be reinforced to ensure cost-effectiveness and priorities in socio-economic development. and synergy among regional bodies. The legal basis of the Services should be 233 strengthened. The potential contributions of The issues I have mentioned are important for NMSs in a growing number of new areas such as the sustainable development of the countries of sustainable tourism development, coastal zone the Caribbean. They also reflect some of the management, pollution control, waste major challenges that these countries will face in management, renewable sources of energy and the years to come. In this regard, it is opportune promotion of public information activities to recall that the 2002 World Summit on should be reviewed and reinforced in Sustainable Development in its Programme of collaboration with relevant national and regional Action called for a full and comprehensive review institutions. In this regard, the contribution of of the implementation of the Barbados CMO would be most valuable. Programme of Action for the sustainable development of SIDS in 2004. In this context, it Seventh, I understand that the meteorological requested the United Nations General Assembly, community in this region is having difficulty in at its 2004 session, to consider convening an coping with many of the challenges due to lack of international meeting for the sustainable resources and, in some countries, due to loss of development of SIDS. The Council could consider competent staff. In this regard, I believe that the setting up an appropriate mechanism to provide region has an appropriate strategy as it hosts one the necessary input to the proposed follow-up of the most resourceful institutions for human processes. resources development, namely the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology located In closing, I wish to assure the Council that WMO in Barbados, which celebrated its 35th will continue to support the NMSs and the CMO anniversary this year. Over the years, the Institute in addressing the many challenges of sustainable has become a cornerstone for capacity building development of the Caribbean. These, along with and effective cooperation in meteorology and other issues related to the further development of hydrology. This activity has been highly meteorology and hydrology in the service of successful, as most of the Directors and staff of humankind, will be the focus of the Fourteenth the NMHSs had received their training at the World Meteorological Congress in May 2003. I Institute. The Institute also serves as a Climate would urge you to participate. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development Mediterranean and Commonwealth of Independent States Statement at the Second Euro-Mediterranean Ministerial Conference on Local Water Management1

(Torino, Palazzo Carignano, 18 October 1999)

It is indeed an honour and a privilege for me to resource management. From a meteorological address this august audience in the historic perspective, the climatic conditions have Palazzo Carignano, and to inform you about a few significant impact on the hydrological cycle. In WMO programmes related to the issue of local order to improve the monitoring of hydrological water management and, in particular, on the parameters and make available high quality data possibility offered by weather modification on the status of water resources and their activities in the Mediterranean. As you will trends, WMO initiated in 1993 a special realise, there are considerable opportunities and I programme — the “World Hydrological Cycle am delighted to present them to you. I feel, Observing System” (WHYCOS). The first however, that I should first provide you with regional component implemented was in the some information concerning the World Mediterranean and Black Seas region (MED- Meteorological Organization (WMO) as HYCOS). With support from the World Bank, 12 234 background to my presentation. data collection platforms have so far been installed in Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, The WMO is a Geneva-based intergovernmental Malta, Slovenia, Turkey and Tunisia. These organization and a specialised agency of the platforms are transmitting hydrological United Nations. Currently there are 185 Member observations every 3 hours via the European countries in the Organization. It was founded in METEOSAT. By the end of 1999, it is expected 1950. Its predecessor, the International that new platforms will be installed in Jordan, Meteorological Organization (IMO), was founded Lebanon, the FYR of Macedonia, Morocco as in 1873. Within the United Nations System, WMO well as in the territories under Palestinian is the authoritative scientific voice on the state Authority. Upon completion, about 30 such and the behaviour of the Earth’s atmosphere, its stations will be operational in the 25 interaction with the oceans, the climate it participating countries. WMO will provide produces and the resulting distribution of water water quality sensors to 20 of these stations. resources. The Regional Centre of the Project is hosted in Montpellier, France. There is a clear synergy Fresh water is essential to human life, and to between the MED-HYCOS and the plans of the economic growth and development. It has been Institute of the Environment of the European estimated that human use of water is increasing Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) at by 4 per cent annually. Modest projections of Ispra, Italy, concerning the monitoring of 25–30 years into the future, indicate a high pollution fluxes from rivers into the increase in the number of countries that will Mediterranean and Black Seas. Therefore, a joint experience water stress and scarcity. This is proposal for the second phase of MED-HYCOS is true for most of the Mediterranean, being developed by WMO and the JRC at Ispra. southeastern Europe and Middle East countries. It is hoped that most of the countries in this The complexity of water supply and demand region would show interest and support this calls for an integrated approach to water proposal within the context of the European

1 Among those present were His Excellency Minister Enrico Micheli and Honourable Ministers of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership Chapter 11 — Special Sub-regional activities and challenges to NMHSs

Commission’s 5th Framework Programme for The status of weather modification is constantly Research and Development. under review. This is accomplished through the preparation of periodic scientific Statements by WMO has also cooperated with the panels of leading scientists in the field. Mediterranean countries within the framework of the Barcelona Convention for the Protection of The present WMO Statement on the Status of the Mediterranean Sea against Pollution, and the Weather Modification was reviewed in 1998. The UNEP’s MEDPOL programme. Since 1985, a Statement indicates that “the ability to influence number of regional and national activities have cloud micro-structures has been demonstrated in been initiated and coordinated by WMO to assess the laboratory, simulated in cloud models, and the amount of various pollutants deposited into verified through physical measurements in some the sea from land-based sources through the natural systems such as fogs, layer clouds and atmosphere. The results of these activities, which cumulus clouds. included both measurements and atmospheric transport modelling, have shown that for many “However, direct physical evidence that pollutants such as nitrogen (which causes precipitation, hail, lightning, or winds can be eutrophication) and heavy metals (such as lead, significantly modified by artificial means is cadmium, mercury), as well as for persistent limited. The complexity and variability of clouds organic pollutants, the atmospheric input is equal result in great difficulties in understanding and to or even exceeds their inputs through the detecting the effects of attempts to modify them rivers. These results are important not only from artificially.” the scientific point of view but also for the development of strategies, policies and legal The Statement also indicates that “as knowledge instruments to protect the marine environment. of cloud physics and statistics and their applications to weather modification has Looking at the issues from a broader increased, new assessment criteria have evolved perspective, I should like to highlight the for evaluating cloud seeding experiments. The 235 possibility offered by cloud seeding for development of new equipment — such as augmenting precipitation. In this respect, WMO aircraft platforms with microphysical and air has long encouraged its Members to study all motion measurement systems, radar (including scientific aspects of proposals for precipitation Doppler and polarisation capability), satellites, enhancement. In 1975, the Seventh World microwave radiometers, wind profilers, Meteorological Congress, the supreme body of automated raingage networks, mesoscale the Organization, established a formal weather meteorological network stations — has modification programme. At that time, Congress introduced a new dimension. Equally important asserted that WMO was the appropriate are the advances in computer systems that permit international body with the necessary scientific large quantities of data to be processed. New data and technical expertise to become more active sets, used in conjunction with increasingly in this field, in order to respond competently to sophisticated numerical cloud models, help in requests for advice from Members, the United testing various weather modification hypotheses. Nations system and other international Chemical and chaff tracer studies help to identify organizations concerning weather modification. airflow in and out of clouds and the source of ice It was considered that precipitation nucleation as the seeding agent. With these new enhancement, hail suppression and fog technologies, a better climatology of clouds and dissipation were the most significant of these precipitation can be prepared when activities. Subsequent sessions of the World contemplating a weather modification project”. Meteorological Congress, in considering weather modification activities, have addressed The Statement further indicates that “the science the issue favourably. In particular, the and technology of weather modification have Thirteenth World Meteorological Congress advanced at an uneven but significant pace in (Geneva, May, 1999) noted that an emerging the past 10 to 15 years. Large numbers of new aspect of weather modification activities operational programmes (some transformed was its possible application to water resources from research programmes) in fog dispersion, management. I will elaborate on these specific rain enhancement and hail suppression continue issues later in my presentation. around the world. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

“New technologies and methods are being projects are of long duration; some longer than applied in weather modification research and four or five years, and several have been operations and in basic cloud physics and cloud continued for more than 20 years (e.g., in chemistry studies that increase the potential for Bulgaria, Israel, the Russian Federation and South the further development of weather modification. Africa). In the broad region of the Mediterranean, Certainly the need for more water and less hail is southeastern Europe and the Middle East, more becoming of increased importance in many than 15 projects have been reported. I should like regions of the world”. to mention the positive results reported on precipitation enhancement activities, particularly The physical basis for precipitation enhancement by Israel and Morocco. is focused on supercooled clouds, that is, those clouds that contain liquid droplets at Considering the foregoing, WMO has, through its temperatures colder than 0° Celsius. The on-going weather modification programme, presence of supercooled water is evident from contributed to the advancement of scientific aircraft icing as well as research aircraft knowledge on the subject. Not the least of these measurements. It has been observed that large contributions was the WMO Precipitation amounts of supercooled water in such clouds are Enhancement Project or PEP, as it was commonly not converted to precipitation. This unconverted called. The Project was carried out between 1976 supercooled water can be thought of as an and 1983 as approved by Seventh Congress of untapped reservoir of water in the natural cloud WMO in 1975. system. PEP was a WMO-coordinated scientific field In addition to the WMO Statement on the Status experiment where WMO took the lead in the of Weather Modification, WMO issues Guidelines planning, execution and evaluation of the for Advice and Assistance Related to the Planning experiment to provide Member countries with of Weather Modification Activities. These too are hard facts about the probabilities of successful 236 kept under continuous review and revised when artificial intervention in meteorological necessary. The present Guidelines were revised processes. The role of WMO was also to in June 1995. encourage efforts by Member countries and to act as an international body to safeguard the Another activity which relates to the WMO scientific integrity of the Project. PEP was Programme on the Physics and Chemistry of intended to demonstrate a scientific approach to Clouds and Weather Modification Research is the carrying out a weather modification project for WMO Scientific Conferences on Weather the purpose of a beneficial increase in Modification which are held at approximately precipitation. four-year intervals, beginning in 1972. These provide a forum which allows scientists from PEP was conducted in the northwestern part of around the world to describe their scientific Spain in the Duero River basin. The Spanish site results and discuss progress in the field. Seven was selected from 16 proposed sites, based on such conferences have been organised, the latest logistics, potential contributions from WMO in Thailand in February of this year. Members and the climatology and physics of the precipitation bearing systems in the area. Field Many WMO Member countries are involved in measurements were carried out over a two- to weather modification activities. As part of the four-month period in 1979, 1980 and 1981. No WMO Programme, an annual Register of National cloud seeding activity took place. Synoptic Weather Modification Projects is maintained through cloud microscale data were collected which keeps a record of their activities. This and analysed. This work led to the development Register is unique as it is the only of a number of new techniques to estimate the intergovernmental publication of its kind in potential for precipitation, but ultimately, the existence. In the last ten years or so, more than lack of financial resources precluded the 50 countries have expressed their interest in necessary research-orientated field work, and PEP weather modification activities and on the was concluded in 1983. Nevertheless, PEP average, each year, in various parts of the world, provided a path toward scientifically planned and there are between 40 and 70 active weather executed weather modification projects. PEP was modification projects reported. Many of these well-documented with 34 separate published Chapter 11 — Special Sub-regional activities and challenges to NMHSs reports, concerning various aspects of its supported by the WMO Panel of eminent development. Since then, PEP has been used as a scientists in the field of cloud physics and model for other projects. weather modification. WMO would be pleased to assist in the coordination and further I am pleased to say that Italy has extensive development of the aspects of such a Programme experience in meteorology and operational to include the Mediterranean, southeastern hydrology and is in the forefront of weather European and Middle East countries, and to modification activities. Among these activities, submit relevant proposals for joint action with “Progetto Pioggia” is the Italian Rain the countries of the Euro-Mediterranean Enhancement Project which was developed in Partnership, and of the Alliance for Peace in response to the continuous drought experienced southeastern Europe, and in cooperation with the in the Mediterranean area and in southern Italy, in European Commission. particular. The project was initiated in 1985 to verify the possibility of using the Israeli In response to the great interest and identified techniques from the 1960s in other geographical potential benefits shown by the Mediterranean, areas. It was implemented by TECNAGRO with southeastern European and Middle East countries international scientific advice. In the first phase, for establishing the basis for a scientific from 1986 to 1987, a feasibility study was Precipitation Enhancement Project (MEDSEME- completed to verify the possibility of adapting the PEP), WMO, at the kind invitation of Italy, will Israeli method to the particular conditions of the hold a cloud physics specialists’ Workshop in experimental area. In the second phase, the Monselice, at the International Hydrology Centre actual experiment began. The project was of the University of Padua, from 8 to 11 interrupted for financial reasons in 1995, but December, 1999. The Workshop will prepare the radar analyses and images of cloud modification outline of an umbrella project to incorporate, (cloud tops and rain totals) that took place inter alia, assessments of regional potential for downwind in the target areas afforded evidence precipitation enhancement, training, sharing of at times of increased precipitation. cloud seeding technology, data base and 237 research. The core activities of such a project I am glad to inform you that the recent Thirteenth should be carried out by a few specialised centres World Meteorological Congress (Geneva, May, of competence in the particular aspects of 1999) noted that the experience gained with the precipitation enhancement, utilising existing and above-mentioned experiments is of considerable future national and multinational experiments. support to the WMO Weather Modification WMO will assure the scientific coordination of Programme and should be shared with other such a project and its proper evaluation. I would interested Members. like to take this opportunity to extend an invitation to the countries of the Euro- While looking into the future, I should mention Mediterranean Partnership to send experts to the that the first steps for cooperation with the Euro- Monselice Workshop and actively participate in Mediterranean countries interested in the development of this essential project for the “non-conventional water resources” was initiated region. To be effective, such activities should be with the planning of the scientific base for supported by the interested national and precipitation enhancement. This was started with international bodies. an International Workshop on Theoretical and Practical Aspects of a Regional Precipitation In particular, I look forward to the collaboration Enhancement Programme for the Middle East and and support of the European Union. To this Mediterranean that was hosted by Italy in effect, following the Monselice meeting, a November 1996. The Workshop was held in Bari concrete proposal will be prepared for and was sponsored by the European Union and submission to the European Commission. WMO. The purpose of the Workshop was to elaborate the basis for a Middle East and All these activities indicate the depth of WMO’s Mediterranean Rain Enhancement Programme involvement in operational hydrology and weath- (MEDREP). Almost all the countries in the area, er modification and also the extent to which and several beyond, participated and many have many Member countries of WMO represented offered essential facilities and resources for the here are involved. It is extensive. I therefore avail Programme. The principles agreed in Bari were myself of this opportunity to convey through Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

you, to the governments you represent here, the more fully understood and developed in order to appreciation of the World Meteorological establish how they can contribute to the Organization for the continued support to this management of the world’s water resources. and all other programmes of the Organization. The meteorological community must be prepared It is fitting to conclude this presentation by to offer advice on the efficiency of cloud seeding. referring to the comments made at the Thirteenth I am convinced that with the support of WMO World Meteorological Congress (Geneva, May Member countries from the Alliance for Peace in 1999) concerning weather modification. In southeastern Europe and that of those particular, the Congress noted the emerging new represented here by the Euro-Mediterranean aspects of weather modification activities and Partnership, and in collaboration with the that of their possible application to water European Commission, such advice would be resources management. It is projected that by the forthcoming. year 2025, water stresses will impact about two- thirds of the world’s population. Congress noted Your Excellencies, Distinguished participants, I that weather modification techniques need to be thank you for your attention.

Statement at the opening of the fourteenth session of the Interstate Council on Hydrometeorology of the Countries of the Commonwealth of Independent 238 States

(Almaty, Kazakhstan, 5 September 2002)

I would like to take this opportunity to express goals of the Interstate Council on my sincere appreciation, and that of the World Hydrometeorology (ICH). Meteorological Organization (WMO), to Mr T. Kudekov for his kind invitation, as well as Your session is of particular importance since it is the warm welcome and generous hospitality the last session of the ICH before the Fourteenth accorded to me since my arrival in Almaty. The World Meteorological Congress, which will be presence of His Excellency assures us of his held in May 2003. In light of this, I am pleased to commitment and that of the Government of have the opportunity to brief you on the latest Kazakhstan to the advancement of developments in WMO programmes and on hydrometeorology in support of socio-economic future perspectives on WMO activities. development and to the ideals and programmes of WMO. As you are aware, the Thirteenth World Meteorological Congress in 1999 — and most It gives me great pleasure to extend my greetings recently the fifty-fourth session of the WMO to all the participants, and in particular to the Executive Council — agreed that the World Permanent Representatives of the Member Weather Watch (WWW) should continue to be the countries with WMO who are present at this most important Programme of WMO, providing session. Their presence here is another the basic infrastructure and services in support of indication of the continuing commitments of all other WMO Programmes. While the overall their respective governments to foster implementation of surface and upper-air stations international cooperation in the fields of has shown increasing stability during the past two meteorology, hydrology and related sciences, years, there are many areas, including in the coun- and to their strong support for the ideals and tries of the Commonwealth of Independent States Chapter 11 — Special Sub-regional activities and challenges to NMHSs

(CIS), where deficiencies persist, especially in the receiving equipment, are also promoted for the upper-air networks. These are mostly due to obso- distribution of the full range of meteorological lete equipment and lack of consumables, and in data and products. The WMO Technical some areas to telecommunication problems. Cooperation Programme supports the implementation of receiving stations at National In view of the extremely large geographic area Meteorological Centres (NMCs), including several covered by CIS countries, the contribution CIS countries. The Internet is also an attractive provided by your observing networks is of major communication means, and the Commission for importance for the global meteorological Basic Systems (CBS) is developing further community. WMO continues to give high priority procedures for ensuring its effective and safe use to the needs of the CIS countries to counter the for meteorological exchange. reduction in upper-air data through the provision, among other things, of radiosondes, balloons, In cases of major nuclear emergencies, arrange- spare parts and telecommunication equipment ments are in place to assist the NMHSs. In such within the framework of its Voluntary situations, designated Regional Specialized Cooperation Programme (VCP). During the Meteorological Centres (RSMCs) provide special- period from 1997 to 2002, 11 CIS countries ized high-quality forecast products to the NMCs, received support for 34 VCP projects related to which enable the national Services to advise their the implementation of the WWW, including the governments of the location and predicted drift of provision of equipment and upper-air a radioactive cloud. Obninsk in the Russian consumables. The Council may explore other Federation is the main Centre responsible for the innovative ways of addressing this issue. CIS countries, and other Centres, such as Toulouse and Tokyo, provide back-up services. In the context of the Integrated Global Observing Strategy (IGOS), I would like to mention one of During the recent past, some of the CIS countries the important areas of WMO activity, namely, the have been affected by various natural disasters — implementation of the Aircraft Meteorological floods, droughts and landslides. A recent example 239 Data Reporting System (AMDAR). At present, this is the dramatic flood in the Russian Federation. system provides over 130 000 aircraft Since the protection of life and property is one of observations per day, representing an essential the major objectives of WMO, the Organization contribution to the global set of upper-air data. continues to strengthen its relevant programmes There are several AMDAR routes over the to assist Members to mitigate the impact of natural territories of CIS countries, and it would be disasters. In this regard, WMO collaborates with highly desirable if they would join the WMO the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction AMDAR Panel in the near future. (ISDR) Secretariat and proposes the establishment of a WMO Programme on Natural Disaster In the area of telecommunications, WMO’s effort Prevention and Mitigation in the next financial is geared to improving the capacity and cost-effec- period. Currently, to improve flood prediction and tiveness of the Global Telecommunication System mitigate flood impact, WMO has started to imple- (GTS) by benefiting from the evolving information ment an Associated Programme on Flood and communication technology. The Regional Management in collaboration with the Global Meteorological Data Communication Network Water Partnership (GWP). The goal of this (RMDCN) of Region VI (Europe) started operation Programme is to provide national governments, in March 2000 and has been a successful achieve- agencies and bilateral and multilateral donors with ment for the 33 WWW Centres that are connected, a sound system of methods, tools and policy including the World Meteorological Centre (WMC) options within which to respond to problems in Moscow. The RMDCN, which is now being the management of floods, in an integrated extended beyond Regional Association VI, will be manner. Some of the approaches followed in the of particular interest to all CIS countries, and Programme are to assist in the preparation of rele- WMO is making every effort to facilitate the partic- vant projects at the regional and national levels, ipation of all National Meteorological and and to build a mechanism for coordinating Hydrological Services (NMHSs) concerned. regional activities on flood management.

In the context of the GTS, highly cost-effective Drought is a recurring phenomenon in central satellite-based telecommunications, with low-cost and western Asia and neighbouring countries. In Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

the last three years, some of these countries have responsibility for this field at the national level. experienced widespread and severe droughts, the The ICH may wish to give due consideration to worst in 30 years. In order to assist countries in this issue. the region to become familiar with each others’ experiences in preparing for drought, assessing Natural disaster reduction activities are very close the damage caused by drought and mitigating its to climate variability and climate change issues, in consequences, WMO is working with the United particular regarding studies and prediction of Nations Development Programme (UNDP) on the climatic extremes. As you are aware, WMO development of medium- and long-term strategies continues to implement the World Climate for drought preparedness and mitigation, and on Programme, as well as to provide active support establishing working-level links for subregional to the WMO/United Nations Environment planning and cooperation. It was proposed to Programme (UNEP) Intergovernmental Panel on establish a Regional Initiative on Drought Climate Change (IPCC), the Global Climate Mitigation that would include proactive Observing System (GCOS), the Global Ocean approaches to drought preparedness and Observing System (GOOS) and the Global mitigation and pay more attention to risk Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS). management, including effective early warning systems. WMO has recommended the The importance of high-quality, homogeneous organization of a Workshop on data sets for climate research is well known. They Hydrometeorological Aspects of Drought in the are the foundation for the analysis, monitoring, region, which would bring together prediction and application of climate information meteorologists and hydrologists for a detailed relating to sustainable development and natural analysis of droughts. In this context, the decision disaster reduction in any region. As a follow-up to of your Thirteenth Session to establish an ICH the recommendation of the Commission for Drought Monitoring Centre was very appropriate, Climatology, it is proposed that a Seminar on and we are now working with your experts to Climate Database Management System and Data 240 provide a legal basis relating to the international Rescue be organized for CIS countries in Bishkek status of this Centre. in November 2002, at the kind invitation of the Kyrgyz Republic. The climate services are As regards the activities in the field of landslide critically important to supporting the research, risk mitigation and protection, WMO contributions that NMHSs can make in disaster has established close contacts with the prevention and overcoming the impacts of International Consortium on Landslides (ICL). climatic extremes in the CIS region. Another The last Executive Council session supported major challenge for the CIS countries relates to WMO’s involvement in these activities, calling for water resources management, in view of their the recognition of WMO’s role in major aspects wide variations in the seasonal availability of fresh of landslide prevention and mitigation. The water and their transboundary problems in Council also requested that appropriate advice be coping with floods. In the context of Integrated provided to NMHSs, in order to enable them to Water Resources Management, sound decisions respond adequately and in a timely manner to on the use of water must be based on reliable national demands for services related to landslide hydrological data and information on the quantity prevention and mitigation. and the quality of the resource. This requires increasingly complex information systems and Another type of natural disaster to which the CIS high-quality hydrological and meteorological data countries are not immune is earthquakes. At the in real time in the region. To contribute to the global level, it is generally recognized that there is establishment of data and information systems a need to improve international cooperation in tailored to the needs of regions, plans have been the field of seismology, especially in the areas of developed for the establishment of Hydrological monitoring, exchange of operational data and Cycle Observing Systems in the Aral and Baltic products, and development and transfer of Sea regions. If implemented, these will contribute methodology. In this regard, proposals will be significantly to the improvement of the water made to Fourteenth Congress on the possible role resource information systems in the region. of WMO in international coordination in seismology, as more than 40 National The importance of education and training activi- Meteorological Services (NMSs) have ties as a major factor for capacity building for Chapter 11 — Special Sub-regional activities and challenges to NMHSs

NMHSs cannot be overemphasized. There is undertake these jointly. Your Scientific growing concern over the lack of adequate quali- Conference dedicated to the tenth fied professionals in many countries, in particular anniversary of the establishment of the ICH, in developing countries. In this respect, I would where WMO representatives participated, like to note with appreciation the activities of the is a very good example of joint research WMO Regional Meteorological Training Centre in activities. Finally, I would like to inform the Russian Federation. It has been providing, to you that the Executive Council has the satisfaction of all concerned, training in mete- considered a draft of the WMO policy orology and hydrology of highly qualified special- statement on the role and operations of ists from WMO Member countries from all six NMSs, which will be submitted to WMO Regions. Regarding the technical coopera- Fourteenth Congress. tion activities, I am pleased to note that the Russian Federation and the Ukraine were poten- As I have already mentioned, your Session is just a tial donors who provided substantial contribu- few months away from Fourteenth WMO tions to VCP through the provision of fellow- Congress. Intensive preparations for this event ships. With respect to other projects, I should are under way and I would like to use this like to inform you that WMO continues to sup- opportunity to brief you regarding the issues to port the Integrated Project for Monitoring and be considered by Congress. Information System (IPM&IS) for the assessment and forecasting of the state of the environment One major issue relates to the Programme and and pollution in the Caspian Sea region. This pro- Budget 2004–2007 that will provide the financial ject was developed under the umbrella of the basis for WMO’s activities in the fourteenth Coordinating Committee on Hydrometeorology financial period. As you may be aware, there and Pollution Monitoring of the Caspian Sea were active debates on this issue during the last (CASPCOM). You may be aware that the seventh Executive Council session, particularly regarding session of CASPCOM that was held two days the budget level. However, I anticipate that, if prior to this meeting considered the status of the Congress does not accept a budget close to zero 241 project and recommended actions for its promo- real growth, WMO’s activities will be severely tion to potential donors. reduced. Such a reduction would have severe implications to those activities that may be of As the Session will be considering several issues high priority to Members, including those of ICH relating to the role and operation of NMHSs, countries. I would therefore like to urge you to which are an integral part of the national maintain close contacts with the appropriate infrastructure of every country, I wish to make a government authorities of your country to ensure few suggestions to stimulate its deliberations. In that WMO receives the necessary resources for particular, I believe the ICH should: the next financial period.

(a) Constantly review its strategy for the Another important item is the consideration and development of the NMHSs, the adoption of the Sixth WMO Long-term Plan (6LTP) enhancement of their status and image and (2004–2011). Since the WMO LTP has to provide their participation in the Programmes and NMHSs with a strategy for development in the activities of WMO; near future, national delegations should give atten- (b) Review its policy relating to the tion to this subject, in particular to key elements of reinforcement of the role of the NMHSs at 6LTP such as the WMO vision and strategic goals. the national, regional and global levels in operational areas such as those related to Finally, Congress will have to elect a new the mitigation of natural disasters, President and Vice- President of the Organization, environmental monitoring, protection of members of the Executive Council, and appoint a the environment and sustainable Secretary-General. This item is crucial for the development; future of the Organization. For more than 50 (c) Continue to address the commercialization years we have been building our Organization on issue in the face of the drive towards the principles of mutual understanding, close market economies; collaboration and friendship. Our achievements (d) Continue to give serious attention to are well known, as are the challenges that research activities and, where possible, confront us. Our future activities depend to a Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

great extent on those who will lead the among ICH Members leaves me with no doubt Organization. I will therefore invite you to give that your deliberations will lead to progress due consideration to this overriding issue for our towards strengthening the Hydrometeorological Organization. Services of your countries. I wish to assure you again of WMO’s continued cooperation and It is clear that the path to reaching your goal assistance in every way possible for the benefit of requires concerted efforts, both individual and your individual countries, the Commonwealth of collective. But the spirit of collaboration and Independent States and indeed all the Members collective wisdom which I have always witnessed of WMO.

242 Chapter 12 CHALLENGES TO WMO BODIES1 Regional associations2

Statement at the opening ceremony of the eleventh session of Regional Association II (Asia)

(Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, 24 September 1996)

I wish to extend a warm welcome to all the profound commitment on the part of yourself and participants and in particular to the your Government to the ideals of WMO. representatives of the new Members: Kazakstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Macao, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan You may recall that the United Nations and Uzbekistan. I am sure that the new Members Conference on Environment and Development will make valuable contributions to the work of (UNCED) took place shortly before the last the Association, and that they will also benefit session of the Association in Tehran in 1992. substantially from their participation. WMO and a number of National Meteorological 243 and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of our I wish to take this opportunity to express the Member countries have taken a very active part in deep appreciation of the World Meteorological the follow-up to the Conference and in the Organization (WMO) and my own to the implementation of its Agenda 21, which will be Government and people of Mongolia for hosting reviewed by United Nations Special General this session in the beautiful and historic city of Assembly in June 1997. Among many other areas Ulaanbaatar. This is my second visit to Mongolia of particular relevance to our programmes are: and I am grateful for the generous hospitality human settlements, including the International extended to me. As we meet here today, we are Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR); keenly aware of the difficult times that the people protection of the atmosphere; combating of this country had as a result of the large-scale desertification and drought; water resources, and steppe and forest fires which swept across the protection of the oceans and coastal areas. WMO northern part of the country in April and May of cooperated with many other UN agencies, in this year. The fires caused unfortunate loss of life particular with the UN Commission on and severe damage to the nation’s economy, in Sustainable Development (CSD) which was terms of property and livestock losses. I therefore established to oversee the implementation of wish to convey the heartfelt sympathy of WMO to Agenda 21. In the process, WMO has placed the Government and people of Mongolia and special emphasis on the sustainable development wish them every success in overcoming the of small island developing states. Within the UN effects of the disaster. We also recognize that System, the Inter- Agency Committee on your invitation to host the session, in spite of this Sustainable Development (IACSD) entrusted unexpected natural disaster, is a mark of WMO with the responsibility of Task Manager on

1 see also Chapter 11 – Sub-Regional Bodies

2 Editor’s Note: Two or more meetings of each of WMO’s six Regional Associations (RAs) were held during the period from late 1996 to early 2003. Professor Obasi spoke at all of these, in many different countries. Included in this chapter are three examples to illustrate the kind of challenges to RAs made by the Secretary-General. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

programme areas relating to the World Climate detection of climate change and for agreement on Programme and Drought Monitoring, and commitments to reduce the emission of assigned to WMO and UNESCO the responsibility greenhouse gases. In this respect, the NMHSs for water resources assessment. In addition to have the responsibility to provide the relevant these, which I will refer to in greater detail data and information to meet the needs of the shortly, WMO has made contributions in other Convention. For its part, WMO will continue to UNCED issues such as combating deforestation, support the Convention and provide the sustainable mountain development, agriculture necessary assistance to its subsidiary bodies and rural development, and biodiversity, along through its Programmes such as the World with related resource mobilization activities. Climate Programme, and through the IPCC and the Global Climate Observing System, and to Throughout the inter-sessional period, WMO has publish the annual report on the “Status of the kept its Members informed on UNCED Global Climate”. developments and has provided advice to the NMHSs on access to resources set up for UNCED The other outcome of UNCED of particular purposes and their possible contributions to significance to Asia is the International national sustainable development plans and Convention to Combat Desertification (ICCD). It strategies. In so doing, WMO has produced is to be noted that as of September 1996 only five several publications on those topics of special States from this Region have either ratified or relevance to its Members, including “Guidelines acceded to this Convention. I am sure that this is on the Role of the National Meteorological and not meant to signal to the world community that Hydrological Services in the Implementation of desertification is not a matter of concern in RA II. Agenda 21 and the Framework Convention on As in the case of the UN/FCCC, WMO has also Climate Change”. An updated version of this provided technical support to the negotiating particular publication is under preparation. WMO process for the ICCD, along with direct support has involved all its Regional Associations and to its interim Secretariat through the secondment 244 Technical Commissions in UNCED follow-up and of staff members. in building the relevant portions of Agenda 21 into the Organization’s Long-term Plans. It has As regards the monitoring of the chemical also contributed to regional initiatives on the composition of the atmosphere, WMO will follow-up to UNCED, including those of the UN continue to reinforce its Global Atmosphere Regional Commissions (such as the Economic and Watch (GAW) which contributes, inter alia, to Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific the continuous monitoring of greenhouse gases (ESCAP)), and the Asian-Pacific Leaders Summit and climate change studies, and the monitoring on Climate Change in Manila in 1995. of the ozone layer and background air pollution. One of the six GAW global stations was As you are aware, a major outcome of UNCED established in China with the support of the was the Framework Convention on Climate Global Environment Facility (GEF). A WMO Change (UN/FCCC). It will be recalled that WMO Quality Assurance/ Science Activity Centre was was instrumental in initiating the negotiating also established in Tokyo, Japan, to provide process and has contributed significantly to the guidance for environmental measurements in the development of the Convention. It has also Region. We should strengthen our efforts to provided direct support to the Secretariat of the ensure that the uncertainties to climate change FCCC through the secondment of staff members. prediction are narrowed down and that adequate I am pleased to note that most of the Members of data becomes available to support further Region II have ratified the Convention and research in the climate-change area. continue to play a major role in the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the Convention. Last July, Another major UNCED-related development since the Conference of the Parties noted with concern the last session of the Association is the prepara- the statement in the Second Assessment Report tion of a “Climate Agenda” following the (SAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate recommendation of the Intergovernmental Change (IPCC) that “the balance of evidence Meeting on World Climate Programme (WCP), an suggests that there is a discernible human integrating framework for international climate- influence on climate”. This statement adds related programmes of relevant UN Specialized further urgency to the need for additional Agencies and the International Council of Chapter 12 — Challenges to WMO bodies

Scientific Unions (ICSU). As a lead agency, WMO Fund in support of the Programme in general, and presented the Agenda to the CSD for the consider- of specific projects in hydrology and water ation of the UN General Assembly. Furthermore, in resources. I look forward to the active participa- order to secure the support of governments to tion of Member countries from the Region. fund the Agenda, it is necessary to demonstrate the socio-economic benefits that would accrue An issue of major concern to this Region is that of from its implementation. In this regard, the natural disasters. We have once again witnessed Twelfth World Meteorological Congress endorsed earthquakes, tropical cyclones and associated the establishment of the Climate Information and storm surges and floods in the last few years, Prediction Services (CLIPS) project. This project including the major earthquake in Japan, severe provides an international framework for compre- floods in parts of China, the Democratic People’s hensive multi-disciplinary applications of climate Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea, information and prediction services in environ- Bangladesh, Nepal and India, to name a few. In mental management and sustainable development. this regard, the WMO Plan of Action for the WMO gives high priority to the implementation of International Decade for Natural Disaster this project and has already fielded several sectoral Reduction (IDNDR) and the Tropical Cyclone support missions to a number of countries in the Programme will continue to provide an effective Region. framework to support Members’ activities aimed at reducing and mitigating the effects of natural In addition to these developments, Members disasters. Tangible results achieved are already were kept informed about a number of relevant evident. For example, in Bangladesh, 300 000 lost international conferences held since 1992. In their lives in severe tropical cyclones in 1970 and particular, I wish to refer to the Second UN 134 000 in 1991. In contrast, floods and a tidal Conference on Human Settlements (HABITAT II) surge in 1995 killed only 15 persons, though they held in Istanbul, Turkey, in June 1996. WMO affected about 1.8 million people. As part of its made a substantial contribution to this activities for the IDNDR, WMO played a major Conference on the basis of its long-standing role in the World Conference on Natural Disaster 245 experience in urban and building climatology, Reduction, held in Yokohama, Japan, in May water resources management and natural disaster 1994, including the organization of the mitigation. I would urge the Directors of the Conference’s Technical Committee on Warning NMHSs to collaborate with the relevant national Systems. I would therefore urge Members to institutions involved in the follow-up to this strive to achieve the aims of the Decade and to important Conference. play an active role at the national and regional levels in preparing for the period beyond the end In the field of water resources, WMO is expanding of this decade. and strengthening its relevant activities. In the context of Agenda 21, and at the request of the UN We have also launched a number of regional Commission on Sustainable Development, WMO, initiatives aimed at supporting the efforts of in collaboration with UNESCO, has carried out a National Meteorological and Hydrological “Global Water Resources Assessment” for the 1997 Services. In particular, I am pleased to inform you UN Special General Assembly session. that WMO has established working arrangements Furthermore, in collaboration with the World with the Interstate Council on Hydrometeorology Bank, WMO has initiated the World Hydrological of the Countries of the Commonwealth of Cycle Observing System (WHYCOS) which aims at Independent States. WMO has also assisted in the improving the collection, dissemination and use of establishment of a Coordination Committee on high quality, standardized and consistent hydrolog- Hydrometeorological and Environment ical and related information at all levels. In view of Monitoring of the Caspian Sea which suffers from the growing importance of water-related issues, it various environmental problems. As the problem is essential that NMHSs further strengthen their of the Aral Sea is of concern to the NMHSs of relevant activities to respond to future challenges countries sharing the basin, WMO is cooperating in this field. WMO will continue to strengthen its with development partners in seeking a Hydrology and Water Resources Programme and sustainable solution to the problem. enhance cooperation with relevant regional and international organizations and institutions. In this As regards the implementation of WMO regard, WMO has very recently launched a Trust programmes in the Region, I am pleased to note Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

that the NMHSs have steadily enhanced their reviewed with a view to harmonizing their capabilities and services. For instance, the level of activities with those of the Technical implementation of the surface observing Cooperation Department, within available programmes in the Region has been about 96 per resources, in order to bring WMO’s activities cent through the intersessional period, which is closer to the Member countries. In this regard, 10 per cent higher than the global average. I consideration is being given to the establishment congratulate the Members on these of a Sub-regional Office in the South-West Pacific achievements. In contrast, however, I would like Region. This arrangement, we believe, will offer to mention that some Members in the Region, an appropriate mechanism to bring our especially the Newly Independent States, require Organization closer to the Member countries and our continued support to overcome the thus focus greater attention to their concerns. difficulties they face during this transition period of their history, in operating and maintaining As we are all aware, a major concern to all our their basic systems. WMO is currently giving Members is the exchange of meteorological and considerable support to these Members in this related data and products. Twelfth Congress regard. I wish to use this opportunity to urge adopted Resolution 40 on the policy and strategy those donor Members to offer a helping hand at that will govern our future approach to this this crucial stage of development of the countries issue. The Secretariat has prepared guidance concerned. Furthermore, the NMHSs could material and is carefully monitoring the imple- benefit further if they could participate in the mentation of this Resolution. I would urge work of the Technical Commissions. In order to Member countries to keep to the letter and spirit bring about effective regional representation, of the Resolution and to provide relevant nation- WMO will provide for the participation of one al information to the Secretariat on the impacts expert representing each Regional Association, in of commercialization and implementation of the the sessions of the WMO Commission for Basic Resolution. Systems (CBS), on a trial basis during this 246 financial period, starting with the eleventh As we look to the future, I feel that the Regional session of CBS in Cairo in November this year. Association can successfully build on the important and valuable contributions it has been making The advancement of any NMHS depends on the to the socio-economic development efforts of its availability of suitably trained and well-motivated Members and to the programmes and activities of staff and adequate institutional capability. In this WMO. I would urge the Directors to continue to regard, I hope that the designation of three new promote the image and assert the role of NMHSs. WMO Regional Meteorological Training Centres In this regard, WMO will continue in its efforts to (RMTCs) in China, the Islamic Republic of Iran and keep the Directors fully involved in its initiatives Uzbekistan will contribute to this end. I would geared to enhancing the effectiveness of NMHSs, further encourage Members to make every effort and to provide them with all possible assistance to develop national plans for manpower develop- within available resources. In particular, WMO ment in order to become self-reliant in the basic will continue to give high priority to: training of meteorological and hydrological personnel. The RMTCs should broaden their train- (a) Organizing regional events, at both ing programme to meet the needs of Members in technical and policy levels, such as the non-traditional areas, such as public information, Technical Conferences on the Management cost recovery and the geosciences related to mete- of NMHSs; such a Conference will be held orology. I would like to take this opportunity to in this Region in 1997; express WMO’s appreciation to all countries host- (b) Developing cooperation programmes in ing RMTCs in the Region in support of the WMO meteorology, operational hydrology and Education and Training Programme. related geophysical sciences within regional economic communities, and As many of you will recall from discussions from involving the NMHSs in joint activities with the last Congress, the Regional Office for Asia and relevant regional organizations such as the South-West Pacific will continue to serve as a Economic and Social Commission for Asia focal point for regional activities and to assist the and the Pacific (ESCAP) and the Economic NMHSs in the Region. However, the and the Social Commission for Western responsibilities of Regional Offices are being Asia (ESCWA); Chapter 12 — Challenges to WMO bodies

(c) Assisting the Directors to assert the role of as telecommunication and data-processing the NMHSs at the national level through facilities; actions such as promoting the development (b) Formulation of appropriate strategies to of national strategies to meet the enhance manpower development; sustainable development needs in areas (c) Ensuring the active participation of such as climate change, water resources developing countries in the scientific and management and mitigation of natural technical programmes of our Organization, disasters; assessing the economic and social particularly through the Technical benefits of NMHSs; the provision of public Commissions; information materials; and keeping (d) Ensuring that members of the regional Directors fully briefed on relevant global working groups and rapporteurs are and regional events where WMO is selected on the basis of their expertise and involved; and that they are provided with the necessary (d) Assisting the Directors in resource mobiliza- support to accomplish their tasks tion from sources such as the UNDP, the successfully; World Bank, the Global Environment (e) Keeping to the spirit and letter of Facility, the regional development banks and Resolution 40 of Twelfth Congress related other donor organizations. to the future exchange of data and products, and keeping the Secretariat informed of developments; Role of NMHS Directors (f) Identifying the regional priorities for inclusion in the WMO Fifth Long-term Plan WMO’s efforts will be most effective and which will contain a section on the beneficial to Member countries if the Directors of Regional Programme. the NMHSs actively support them and also take the necessary initiatives. In this regard, I invite This session of the Association is the last one the Association to consider the following issues, before the year 2000. I am confident that the 247 which are not exhaustive, when formulating its Association will address the concerns of its strategy and future work plan: Members with foresight and determination in the traditional spirit of cooperation, self-help and (a) Maintenance and further development of mutual understanding and enter the new the existing observational systems, as well millennium with hope, optimism and assurance.

Statement at the opening of the first session of the Working Group on Internal Matters of Regional Association III (South America)

(Santiago, Chile, 2 November 2000)

The hosting of this session is a clear expression of I would also like to express my thanks to Colonel the Government of Chile’s support and Jorge Cárdenas and to the organizing committee commitment to the enhancement of regional for their efforts and dedication in the preparation cooperation and to the promotion of WMO’s of this event, which will undoubtedly ensure its programmes and activities. In particular, Chile success. My appreciation also goes to the has been hosting a number of training workshops president of RA III, Ing. Nelson Salazar, for his and working group meetings and providing guidance and contribution to the preparation of facilities at the Regional and National Radiation this session, which is the first of its kind. Centres in Santiago for intercomparison of Incidentally, the session coincides with the new instruments. millennium and with the 50th anniversary of Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

WMO that is being celebrated worldwide alists, and the public at large are becoming increas- throughout this year. ingly knowledgeable about weather and climate and their relevance to socio-economic develop- The Working Group was established in accor- ment. It is also increasingly important for NMHSs dance with Resolution 14 of the twelfth session of to increase their collaboration with regional Regional Association III, held in Salvador, Bahia, in economic groupings and agencies, such as the September 1997. The decision to establish such a Permanent South Pacific Commission, the working group on internal matters was motivated, Economic Commission for Latin America and the among other things, by the increasing challenges Caribbean (ECLAC), and the Southern Common faced by the National Meteorological and Market (MERCOSUR), both to provide scientific Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of the Region, the guidance and to mobilize resources for related need for greater coordination of WMO activities in development programmes. The Group may there- the Region, and the requirement to ensure effec- fore provide relevant advice on the role and tive high-level follow-up of the activities of the operations of the NMHSs to enable them to rapporteurs and other working groups established address issues in an effective manner. by the Association. The Group is unique among those of the six WMO Regional Associations, as it For this purpose, it is to be emphasized that the is composed of Permanent Representatives of Services should be first and foremost endowed Member countries of RA III, most of whom also with an effective and up-to-date World Weather serve as rapporteurs on subjects of importance to Watch (WWW) system. The terms of reference of the Association. The experience of this high-level the Working Group on WWW call for the monitor- Group will no doubt be useful to other regional ing of the implementation and operation of the associations. WWW, and advice on possible improvements, priorities and appropriate action in view of evolv- As the next session of the Regional Association is ing requirements and technological changes. expected to be held in September 2001, the Although the Region has achieved some improve- 248 Group will be able to review the progress ment in the level of implementation of the surface achieved in the implementation of the decisions of observation programme over the last few years, the the Association and provide the necessary guid- implementation of the upper-air observation ance to the subsidiary bodies on what remains to programme had been stable for some years, follow- be addressed. In this regard, it is essential for the ing the closure of the OMEGA radio-navigational Group to take into account, especially in the system. Some Member countries continue to expe- context of the work of the Rapporteur on Long- rience difficulties in maintaining their networks term Planning, the overall socio-economic due to high costs of consumables. I would there- environment and the challenges that influence the fore urge the Working Group to evolve ways and operations and development of the NMHSs. These means to consolidate and enhance the observa- include, among other things, the process of global- tional network to meet national, regional and ization, the introduction of market-led economies, global requirements. In addition, continued efforts the rapid advances in science and technology and are being made to upgrade the Regional the weather and climate anomalies including those Meteorological Telecommunication Network related to the El Niño phenomenon. A major devel- (RMTN) through automation and the increased use opment relates to increased competition from the of satellite-based systems. Although deficiencies in private sector and the advent of commercialization terms of computer capabilities and low-speed which may necessitate a review of the core func- circuits still remain, I am pleased that this matter is tions and the role and operations of the NMHSs. being addressed appropriately through the project The Services therefore have to be more proactive entitled “Development of the regional meteorologi- and innovative in identifying alternative ways of cal data-communication network in RA III”. The service delivery. new network, based on the concept of a value- added network (network managed services), is In this respect, it is important for the Group to expected to achieve a more efficient system at a review the progress made in the development of better cost-benefit ratio. It is hoped that the strategic plans of NMHSs which should clearly network will start operating by early 2002. WMO demonstrate the benefits that may be derived from has already been providing support in the form of the applications of meteorology and hydrology. guidance material to all concerned Member coun- This is also a time when decision makers, industri- tries on technical, economic and regulatory aspects Chapter 12 — Challenges to WMO bodies of the proposed network and has spared no effort Spain, the United States, the IDB and WMO, and in ensuring that the project is implemented as carried out between 1997 and 1999. This Study scheduled. It is therefore imperative upon the resulted in feasibility projects for 13 countries in Group to review the progress achieved thus far and Latin America. The implementation of the recom- to put in place the accompanying measures that mendations of the Study should allow NMHSs of will ensure the operation of an effective telecom- participating countries to contribute to climate- munication system. related activities at the national, regional and global levels. The Group should therefore make Another major concern for the Region is the miti- proposals related to the exchange of climate data gation of natural disasters such as droughts, floods, and products, and the development, expansion or hurricanes and occasional tornadoes. In this improvement of effective climate services includ- regard, one recalls the abnormal warmth and ing data, applications, impact studies and research. dryness in most of Chile — from October 1993 through most of 1994, during which over a million Some of the major challenges to sustainable devel- heads of cattle were lost. This drought also opment arise from the need to provide adequate affected southern Brazil, Paraguay and parts of freshwater resources. The rapid rise in water Argentina during the second half of 1995. Then demand from various users is compounded by the there was the flood along the coast of Santarina increase in water pollution, the threat of water- State in southern Brazil which claimed some 60 related natural disasters, the potential conflicts lives and left tens of thousands of people home- between countries that share river basins or less. It is well known that many of these disasters aquifers and the potential impact of climate in the Region, especially the floods in Peru and change. It is estimated that the amount of fresh Ecuador, are often associated with the El water presently available for each person in South Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena as America is about one-third of the corresponding was the case with the 1997–1998 El Niño. During value in 1950 and that the water stress is expected this event, a series of regional climate outlook fora to increase considerably in the future. In order to were convened within the context of the WMO contribute to effective water resources manage- 249 Climate Information Prediction Services (CLIPS) ment, the Association had called for the project. The fora provide an opportunity for development of regional components of the reviewing the status of the El Niño and, with the World Hydrological Cycle Observing System user community, for reaching consensus on (WHYCOS) such as the PLATA-HYCOS, the expected outcomes. ANDES-HYCOS and the AMAZON-HYCOS (see Figure 7.7). In view of the decisions of the Furthermore, the Study on the prediction and Association regarding these issues, it is essential amelioration of socio-economic impacts of the El for this Working Group to give the necessary guid- Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in Latin ance to the Working Group on Hydrology in the America and the Caribbean (LAC) was initiated by development and implementation of an integrated WMO and the Inter-American Development Bank plan of action. (IDB) in September 1999. The Study resulted in the Guayaquil Declaration in November 1998, Another major concern to the Region is the contin- which, among other things, called for the estab- ued depletion of the ozone layer and its lishment of the El Niño Centre in Guayaquil, implication for health. WMO has regularly alerted Ecuador. This proposal was supported by the the world community about the destruction of the United Nations General Assembly in 1998. The ozone which occurs in the layer between 15 and evaluation of the climate fora, and the outcomes of 20 km in the stratosphere. This year the ozone the Study on the El Niño including the proposed “hole” over the Antarctic has been observed since establishment of the El Niño Centre, should assist the middle of September. That is earlier than in the Group in enhancing activities related to Public previous years. In addition, the hole during the last Weather Services and in capacity building, taking ten days of September was the greatest on record. into consideration the users’ perspective. Although the effect of this serious development may be felt in the entire Region, the southern-most In proposing strategies for the future in the area of area of South America is most exposed to the climate, the Group should take into account the danger of the ultraviolet radiation. I am therefore results of the Ibero-American Climate Project pleased to learn that the Chilean and Argentinean Feasibility Study which was funded by Canada, authorities have spared no efforts to warn the Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

people living in this area against the danger and to (d) The development of a plan of action related assist them in taking the necessary protective to education and training for specialized measures. WMO will continue to assist its Member and long-term human resources countries in the monitoring of ozone and the development as well as enhanced research issuance of advisories related to ultraviolet radia- capabilities; tion and its environmental impacts. I would (e) The formulation of a regional strategy therefore urge the Working Group to review the related to the applications of meteorology strategies and actions relating to this issue so as to to agriculture and food security, ocean enable the NMHSs to more effectively contribute affairs and other areas of interest to socio- to the monitoring and timely dissemination of economic development; information and advisories on ozone. (f) The enhancement of cooperation through, where relevant, the development of Furthermore, WMO will continue to assist in programmes in meteorology with regional other matters related to the contributions which organizations such as ECLAC, MERCOSUR, meteorology and hydrology can make in and the Permanent South Pacific addressing issues relevant to agriculture, food Commission; security, drought and desertification and to the (g) The mobilization of resources from sources development of the capabilities of the National such as the United Nations Development Meteorological Services in the fields of marine Programme (UNDP), the World Bank, meteorological services and oceanography. The regional development banks and other Working Group should therefore give serious donor organizations and, where necessary, consideration to these issues and provide through the appropriate national appropriate recommendations to the relevant authorities; rapporteurs. (h) The continued involvement of experts at the national level from NMHSs and other These efforts are all geared towards the improved relevant national institutions in the 250 and effective contributions of NMHSs to socio- accomplishment of the specific tasks economic development in the respective nations. assigned to the rapporteurs and the In this regard, I would like to make the following members of the working groups; and proposals, which are non-exhaustive, for the (i) Proposing ways of involving experts from consideration of the Group and which include: the Region in the subsidiary bodies of both regional associations and technical (a) The formulation of an appropriate strategy commissions. for the maintenance and further development of the existing observational In conclusion, the outcome of this session is of systems, as well as telecommunication and key importance to the development of the data-processing facilities, while ensuring NMHSs and to the success of the next RA III closer cooperation among Members and session. I am therefore confident that the with relevant national and regional documents prepared will enable the Group to institutions; address the concerns of the Association with (b) The designation of a rapporteur or working foresight and determination in the traditional group on matters related to El Niño and the spirit of cooperation and mutual understanding. I related natural disasters in the light of the wish to assure you of WMO’s continued significant impact of the phenomenon on commitment in assisting you in the the economies of the countries of the accomplishment of your tasks. I also wish to take Region; this opportunity to introduce Comodoro Ramon (c) The development of a strategic plan within Sonzini as the new Regional Director for the the context of the long-term plan and Americas. You all know him very well and he has regional priorities that will include the shown his devotion and commitment over the codification of the core mission of NMHSs years in serving the Region and the Organization. in national legislation or some formal I invite you to give him your full support in the environmental instruments and the discharge of his responsibilities, which include recognition that the primary role of NMHSs the follow-up of many of the decisions you will is the domain of the public good; be taking over the next few days. Chapter 12 — Challenges to WMO bodies

Statement at the opening of the thirteenth session of Regional Association I (Africa)1

(Mbabane, Swaziland, 20 November 2002)

It is a great pleasure and a privilege for me to of WMO which, for over half a century, has been address you today on the occasion of the opening serving humanity as the United Nations system’s of the thirteenth session of Regional Association I authoritative voice on the state and behaviour of (Africa) of the World Meteorological Organization the Earth’s atmosphere, its interaction with the (WMO) and to extend a warm welcome to all the land surface and the oceans, the climate it participants. On behalf of WMO and my own, I produces and the resulting distribution of fresh wish to express my appreciation to you, your water. Excellency, and through you to the Government and people of Swaziland for hosting this This session is special and significant in that it is important session and for the warm reception the the first one in the new millennium, which comes delegates and myself have received since our with many challenges and opportunities. The arrival in Mbabane. My special thanks go to Mr session is expected to come up with a strategy for Emmanuel D. Dlamini, Director of the the next four years, as well as beyond, for the Meteorological Service and Permanent development of meteorology and hydrology in Representative of Swaziland with WMO and his Africa. In this regard, I would like to offer brief staff for the excellent arrangements made to general comments on some of the factors and ensure the success of the session. major issues that will influence the management 251 and development of National Meteorological and I also wish to take this opportunity to thank Dr M. Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in Africa at the S. Mhita, president of the Association, and Mr I. beginning of this new millennium. Also, former vice-president of the Association, for their leadership and contributions towards the One factor that will influence, for years to come, successful implementation of the Association’s the management and development of NMHSs in programmes and activities during the Africa is globalization. As meteorology and intersessional period. My appreciation also goes hydrology continue to play increasingly important to the chairpersons, rapporteurs and members of roles in socio-economic development, it is the working groups for their valuable service to conceivable that the commercialization of the the Association during the same period. services will be a continuous concern to the NMHSs in the context of a changing world. This session of the WMO Regional Association for Concerns of the NMHSs will be focused on how Africa gives us an opportunity to take stock of the best to compete with external service providers global and regional events that had occurred and other stakeholders alike, while responding to during the intersessional period, and to discuss the safety and security and socio-economic their implications for the development of development challenges of the nations. This is a meteorology and hydrology as we face the monumental challenge to all and we need to challenges of the new millennium. The session increase our innovative strategies in order to will also allow us to review what has been enable us to respond to these concerns. achieved since the last session of the Association, held in Arusha, Tanzania, in October 1998, and Another issue of concern to the NMHSs in Africa what needs to be addressed in the future. The is how to take advantage of developments in success of the Association is closely linked to that science and technology over the last decades to

1 Among those present were His Excellency, Dr S.B Dlamini, Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Swaziland, Dr M. S. Mhita, President of WMO’s Regional Association I (Africa); Representatives of International Organizations; and Mr E.D. Dlamini, Permanent Representative of Swaziland with WMO. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

improve their contributions to sustainable with significant impact is capacity building in the development. Furthermore, developments in use of Internet to deliver services that will science and technology have resulted in the contribute to bringing timely and sophisticated availability of increasingly powerful computers weather and climate products to the rural which enable the production of sophisticated communities. On the basis of the project areas numerical weather prediction (NWP) outputs for identified in the Strategic Plan for short-range weather forecasts and increased Implementation and Improvement of the Basic accuracy within the medium range. Over the last Systems in the Region, an integrated project decade, a new era has also emerged for seasonal proposal has been developed with a view to and climate prediction. To keep pace with these seeking resources from development partners. and many other rapid advances in science and This will be done in collaboration with, and with technology, NMHSs have to undertake the support of, relevant subregional economic modernization on a continuous basis, which groupings in Africa. In addition, WMO in requires additional financial and human conjunction with the WMO-sponsored Global resources. Over the last four years, WMO has Climate Observing System (GCOS) Secretariat has collaborated with Members of the Association, organized regional workshops in Africa on the development partners and stakeholders in the improvement of the observing systems. This is a implementation of relevant programmes and major achievement and you will have an activities, in particular those approved by the opportunity to deliberate on this as well in the Thirteenth World Meteorological Congress in context of the Strategic Plan. 1999, also expressed in the Geneva Declaration. We recognize the fact that in order to implement Recent weather- and climate-related events successfully many of WMO’s programmes and impacting on the lives and property of people are activities, it is essential that the World Weather grave enough to focus the attention of this Watch (WWW) operate at an optimum level. The session. The frequent occurrence of natural WWW remains a unique global operating system disasters such as droughts, floods and tropical 252 for collecting, exchanging and assessing cyclones continue to impact negatively on the information on weather, climate and the socio-economic development of Members. environment and makes an invaluable Globally, over the last decade, there has been a contribution to international cooperation. two-fold increase in the number of hydrometeorological disasters. Over the same However, the low level of operation of the WWW period, about 200 million people were affected in Africa continues to be of concern. In this annually, which is seven times the number of regard, the last session of the Regional persons affected by armed conflicts. A few Association, which was held in 1998 in Arusha, examples of such natural disasters include the decided to develop a strategy for the devastating floods in Mozambique in 2000, which enhancement of the WWW Basic Systems in reduced its gross domestic product by 11.6 per Africa. I would like to assure you that the WMO cent. Secretariat has adopted the best possible approach to this very important issue. In addition In the West African subregion, the general trend, to the field survey missions, conducted by expert, largely dictated by the precipitation regime, is an in several selected countries across the various alternating cycle of floods and droughts. In the subregions of Africa, three subsidiary bodies, past three years, flood events have affected the including the Advisory Group of the Association, entire subregion from Senegal to Cameroon. participated in the development of the strategy. Devastating floods causing some loss of lives and The identified project areas include measures that significant damage to the economy have been will enhance availability of weather, climate and reported in major cities such as Abidjan, Accra, environmental data, as well as the preparation, Bamako, Dakar and Lagos. Accra, in particular, distribution and application of products and has repeatedly experienced flooding during the services necessary for sustainable socio-economic wet season resulting in loss of lives, displacement development in Africa. Related measures cover of people from their homes, disruption to implementation of a network of weather radars economic activities, and washing away of culverts for cyclone warning and tracking and the equally and small bridges. Southern Africa is in the throes important areas of procurement, manufacture, of a severe drought that is affecting the livelihood maintenance and repair and calibration. One area of about 13 million people. Drought and food Chapter 12 — Challenges to WMO bodies shortage in the Greater Horn of Africa in 2001 supporting NMHSs in Africa and regional resulted in a humanitarian crisis. Severe tropical institutions, including the Drought Monitoring cyclones are a constant threat to Madagascar and Centres (DMCs) in Nairobi and Harare, the the other Indian Ocean Island countries. Regional Training Centre for Agrometeorology and Operational Hydrology and their Applications Across Africa, NMHSs are faced with the (AGRHYMET) and the African Centre of monumental challenge of providing accurate, Meteorological Applications for Development useful and timely forecasts on floods and other (ACMAD) in Niamey. This support is meant to disasters. In this regard, I need to underscore the contribute to all phases of disaster management at fact that we also need to improve how we the national and regional levels, including channel our services in support of effective early preparedness measures, forecasting and early warning and long-term socio-economic planning. warning, recovery and rehabilitation. In this Any tangible achievement we are able to attain on regard, WMO’s vision is to promote the adoption this front would indeed go a long way in of a “culture of prevention” of natural disasters of supporting a solid framework for warning the meteorological and hydrological origin, population ahead of looming predicated on the need to strengthen the unique hydrometeorological disasters. Of course, such global observing networks, coordinated by WMO, information will also be of great value to for monitoring the atmosphere, the oceans, rivers integrated development programmes. and lakes and on the need to move, in transition to sustainability, to a new paradigm of Among the most pressing challenges facing Africa sustainability science. In addressing these issues is the alleviation of poverty, hunger and food at the global level, WMO is an active member of insecurity and the sustainable management of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction agriculture and natural resources. Indeed (ISDR). agriculture is the sector most sensitive to variability in the weather and climate. It is Another reason why this session of RA I is recalled that over 23 million people in the Horn significant is that it is taking place about two 253 of Africa and some parts of eastern and southern months after the World Summit on Sustainable Africa face famine as a consequence of the Development (WSSD) held in South Africa in continuing droughts. Apart from adversely August/September 2002. I am pleased to inform affecting the quality and quantity of water you that WMO was actively involved in the resources, the droughts also aggravate preparatory process of WSSD and participated desertification, a pressing long-term problem fully in all the proceedings at the Summit. There affecting food security in Africa. Desertification was a strong presence of Directors of National has its greatest impact in Africa, where desert and Meteorological and Hydrological Services from drylands cover some two-thirds of the continent. Africa. I would like to take this opportunity to give special thanks to Mr Donald Nadison, the Preserving dryland ecosystem productivity and Chief Executive Officer and Permanent ensuring that those who live on it have access to Representative of South Africa with WMO, for the safe drinking water are major challenges in the excellent arrangements made for the battle against hunger and poverty and in meteorological and hydrological communities sustainable agricultural development in Africa. In during the Summit. the context of food security, WMO gives priority to the implementation of projects in areas such as The main outcomes of the Summit comprise the early warning and agricultural yield forecast and Johannesburg Declaration on Sustainable to strengthening the application of Development and the Plan of Implementation. agrometeorological practices. Furthermore, WMO These will require the increased contributions of continues to respond to Members’ requests for WMO and NMHSs for the protection of the global assistance during and after the occurrence of commons, including the Earth’s atmosphere, disasters. For instance, through the initiative of oceans, fresh water and ecosystems and for the WMO, development partners have responded to promotion of advances in science and technology the rehabilitation of the Mozambique and their applications to sustainable development Meteorological Services. WMO was a member of activities in Africa. Overall, awareness has been the UN Inter-Agency Team that addressed the raised on major issues such as availability of fresh drought situation in the Horn of Africa. It is also water, weather- and climate-related disasters and Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

the impacts of climate change. Special attention As a follow-up to a resolution of the last session was given to the New Partnership for Africa’s of the Association, WMO continued to support, in Development (NEPAD). cooperation with the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellite I am pleased to inform you that WMO is closely (EUMETSAT), the activities of the Preparation for following the NEPAD initiative. During my visit to the Use of Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) South Africa, I had the opportunity to hold consul- Satellites in Africa (PUMA) Task Team. The PUMA tations with Prof. Wiseman Nkuhlu, the Task Team has successfully developed the well- Chairperson of the NEPAD Steering Committee, known PUMA Project and had raised funding for on ways of integrating meteorology and hydrology its implementation. I take this opportunity to in the NEPAD Programme. I would urge the thank the European Commission for funding, Directors of Meteorological and Hydrological through the economic groupings in Africa, this Services in Africa to make contributions in support project, which will allow the provision of MSG of NEPAD objectives, as a significant number of ground satellite receiving systems and related them are weather-, climate- and water-sensitive. I training to African NMHSs and relevant centres am convinced that your session will dwell on this (see also second address in Chapter 4). As you important matter. In the context of NEPAD, one of may be aware, the MSG-1 satellite was the major challenges during the coming few successfully launched on 29 August 2002 and is decades of the twenty-first century that have to be expected to become operational in March 2003. I addressed is the dwindling water resources. In wish to express my appreciation to the particular, there is an urgent requirement to chairperson and members of the PUMA Task strengthen hydrological infrastructures in the Team for their devotion and for the satisfactory Region. The implementation of the regional results achieved for Africa. I understand that the component of the World Hydrological Cycle session will have deliberations on the future role Observing System (WHYCOS), aimed at monitor- of the PUMA Task Team. Based on the success of ing and exchanging hydrological data, using the PUMA approach, WMO and its partners have 254 up-to-date technologies, and at developing quality- developed the new African Monitoring of the assured hydrological databases, is of crucial Environment for Sustainable Development importance to RA I Member countries. In this (AMESD) initiative. Its objective is to reinforce regard, I am pleased to note that the first phase of the African network using the Earth observation the South African Development Community technologies to improve the management of the (SADC)-HYCOS in southern Africa has been environment through a more timely and efficient successfully completed and donors have use of relevant data, information and dedicated expressed interest in funding the second Phase of applications directly accessible to end-users. I the Project. The European Commission agreed to wish to extend my appreciation to the fund the preparation of the detailed project docu- Secretariats of the African subregional economic ment for IGAD-HYCOS (eastern Africa) (see groupings that decided, through the Dakar Figure 7.7). After completing the Pilot Phase of Declaration on 29 September 2002, to support AOC-HYCOS (western and central Africa), project the AMESD initiative. Consultations with profiles for selected river basin components such potential partners have commenced. as Niger, Volta, Lake Chad, Senegal are being developed. In response to water-related chal- Furthermore, WMO has established close lenges, I wish to assure you that WMO will partnership with the various economic groupings continue to strengthen its Hydrology and Water in Africa. Memoranda of Understanding and Resources Programme and enhance cooperation Working Arrangements have been or are being with relevant organizations and institutions. I signed between WMO and most of them for the would urge Members to continue to support implementation of meteorological and Resolution 25 of the Thirteenth World hydrological programmes in the Region. Meteorological Congress on the free and unrestricted exchange of hydrological data and As you are aware, the development efforts of products and the April 2002 Abuja Ministerial NMHSs depend, to a large measure, on the Declaration on Water — A Key to Sustainable availability of well-trained personnel with Development in Africa, issued at the official specialized training in various fields. In this launch of the African Ministerial Conference on regard, Africa has a number of Regional Water (AMCOW) (see Chapter 7). Meteorological Training Centres (RMTCs) as well Chapter 12 — Challenges to WMO bodies as national training facilities, which have to identify the priority areas for its next interses- continued to broaden their training programmes sional work programme, including those that to meet the needs of Members in basic and relate to the contributions of the Services to specialized fields. As recommended by Congress, national and regional development plans. In this the Secretariat initiated a survey of human regard, the NMHSs should contribute effectively resources development and Members’ training to the preparation of the Sixth WMO Long-term needs. As a result, increased effort will be Plan that will have to be approved by Fourteenth devoted to the strengthening of training facilities Congress next year. The implementation of the of the RMTCs. I would therefore like to take this Plan would further help the Directors of NMHSs opportunity to express WMO’s appreciation to to promote the image and role of their respective the various Governments for hosting RMTCs in Services and of WMO at the national and interna- support of the WMO Education and Training tional levels. For this purpose, I will also invite Programme (ETRP). I would further urge Member the Association to formulate a regional communi- countries to give high priority to human cation strategy based on national strategies that resources development, with the aim of ensuring would enhance the image and visibility of the an adequate level of expertise in basic and Services in relation to national authorities, rele- specialized fields as well as in areas such as vant national and regional institutions, the educa- management. In addition, during the last tional and academic institutions, national meteo- intersessional period, 41 training events were rological and hydrological societies where they organized and more than 700 fellowships were exist, the media and the private sector. awarded to the staff of the NMHSs in this region. WMO will continue to approach potential donors I believe that it is through a strong synergy for support. It is gratifying that responses thus far between WMO’s efforts and those of Directors of have been encouraging. NMHSs that we can collectively meet the growing national, regional and global challenges. In this Over the years, WMO has also increased its efforts regard, I invite the Association to give priority, to strengthen the capacities of NMHSs through its among other things, to the following: 255 Technical Cooperation Programme. Under the WMO Voluntary Cooperation Programme (VCP), (a) Enhancing the basic meteorological and 49 Members received support for a total of 116 hydrological observing networks, projects for equipment and services. WMO has telecommunication systems and data- also facilitated development and implementation processing facilities, in the light of of Global Environment Facility GEF)-financed scientific and technical advances; projects on greenhouse gases and capacity (b) Implementing the Strategy for the building on climate observing system. WMO will implementation and improving the WWW continue to support the efforts of Members in components in Africa; obtaining funds from regional development banks (c) Strengthening the capacity for natural such as the African Development Bank, and other disaster prevention and mitigation through funding institutions. the improvement of forecasting and warning systems of severe weather events, In order to enhance its services to the Members, including access to data and products from WMO has undergone a major restructuring during Regional Specialized Meteorological the inter-sessional period. In this regard, there has Centres (RSMCs) and World Meteorological been considerable harmonization of the functions Centres (WMCs); and responsibilities of the Regional Office and the (d) Developing reliable seasonal and Technical Cooperation Department. I wish to interannual forecasting capability and assure you of the continued support to the improving and understanding the nature Regional Office and the two subregional offices in and extent of potential threat from climate the Region. I would also urge the Members of the change in the Region; Region to continue to use the facilities provided (e) Increasing the range of services available to by the regional and subregional offices and to users by optimizing the use of facilities, support them in meeting their responsibilities. staff and other resources to meet the growing demands for services, including As we look to the future, I feel that the agrometeorological services from national Association should carefully review its activities authorities and the public; Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

(f) Strengthening regional cooperation I would like to take this opportunity to thank all through the establishment of joint of you and, through you, your Governments for programmes and projects in meteorology the support given to me as Secretary- General of and hydrology within the context of an Organization we all cherish and which I had regional economic groupings; and the privilege to serve. I would like to assure you (g) Taking advantage of opportunities offered of my continued commitment to the promotion by global and regional initiatives such as of meteorology and hydrology in this Region and the WSSD, NEPAD and AMESD. elsewhere, and to ensure that WMO continues to assume a leading role in the global initiatives and I am confident that the Association will address activities to address the concerns of humanity in the concerns of its Members with foresight and the context of its mandate, as a prestigious, determination in the traditional spirit of respected and exemplary Organization. cooperation and mutual understanding, and start the new millennium with increased commitment, I am thankful to you Honourable Prime Minister, hope and optimism. As the sessions of Regional for honouring us with your presence. Associations are convened every four years, I would like to mention that this is the last Regional Association for Africa that I am attending as Secretary-General.

Technical commissions1

256 Address at the opening ceremony of the twelfth session of the Commission for Marine Meteorology

(Havana, Cuba, 10 March 1997)

I wish to take this opportunity to express my I wish to pay a special tribute to the president of sincere appreciation, and that of the World the Commission, Mr Robert Shearman and to the Meteorological Organization (WMO), to the vice-president, Dr Lim Joo Tick, for their Government of Cuba for hosting this session in distinguished service to the Commission over the the historic city of Havana. The hosting of this past eight years, and for the outstanding work session is yet another demonstration of your which has been accomplished during the past Government’s strong support and commitment to intersessional period. My thanks are also the programmes and activities of WMO. We all addressed to the chairpersons and members of recall that in 1993 you also hosted the last session the working groups, sub-groups and rapporteurs of the WMO Commission for Climatology and, in for their valuable contribution to the work of the 1995, that of the Commission for Agricultural Commission. Meteorology. I would like to thank Dr Fabio Fajardo Moros and his successor Dr Tomás The WMO Commission for Marine Meteorology is Gutiérrez Pérez, Director of the Cuban the successor of a similar Commission established Meteorological Institute, and his staff for the in 1907 by the International Meteorological excellent arrangements made for this very Organization (IMO), the predecessor of WMO. important session. The early recognition of the role of the oceans in

2 Editor’s Note: During the period covered by this volume, 18 meetings of the 8 Technical Commissions of WMO were addressed by Professor Obasi. Since the subject matter is diverse, examples are given for five Technical Commissions, ranging from the Commission on Maritime Meteorology (Havana, 1997) to the Commission for Basic Systems (Cairns, December 2002). Addresses and challenges at the opening of several sessions of the Technical Commissions for Agricultural Meteorology, for Climatology, and for Hydrology were undertaken in the 1996-2003 period, but are not included here. The topics addressed by these Technical Commissions are dealt with in Chapters 8, 5, and 7 respectively. Chapter 12 — Challenges to WMO bodies modifying weather systems and climate has among other things, the improvement of the ensured that meteorologists focus considerable quality, quantity and range of data in the marine attention on the promotion of marine data base, including sea-ice data. I would meteorology and associated oceanographic therefore urge all our Member countries to activities. A very close and symbiotic relationship continue to adhere strictly to the letter and spirit between meteorology and oceanography has of Resolution 40 of the Twelfth Congress, which therefore developed over the years, as the range outlines the WMO policy and practices for the of marine activities contributing to socio- exchange of meteorological and related data and economic development widened. In 1995, the products. I would also urge the Commission to Twelfth World Meteorological Congress gave give considerable attention to this issue of continuing high priority to the Commission and strengthening the capacities in marine to the WMO Marine Meteorology and Associated meteorology of the National Meteorological Oceanographic Activities Programme. Services, especially those of the developing countries, to enable them to meet their The priority accorded to this Programme is also a responsibilities in providing, satisfactorily, marine recognition of the considerable economic value services in support of their national, social and and benefit arising from the operations of an economic development. increasing number of diverse maritime users. Consequently, the requirements for specialized A number of regional and international initiatives marine meteorological and oceanographic have been launched that are aimed at providing services have increased substantially over the past improved services in support of the safety of life few decades. Examples of such specialized and property at sea and in dealing with marine requirements would be those in support of safety pollution through enhanced data acquisition and of life and property at sea, fisheries, offshore oil research. and gas production, coastal zone management and operations in polar waters. Moreover, there An example of such an initiative is the South-East has been an increasing understanding of the Asian Centre for Atmospheric and Marine 257 contribution of the marine environment to the Prediction (SEACAMP) project, which is aimed at global life-support system, to issues related to enhancing marine observing systems, data extreme weather events and to global climate exchange, ocean and climate modelling and change and its variation. service provision in South-East Asia, and which was developed jointly by WMO and the One of the continuing major problems facing Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission meteorology and oceanography is the lack of high- (IOC). In view of the importance of this initiative, quality and timely data from vast areas of the the WMO Commission should therefore consider world’s oceans, in support of short-term and ways in which similar projects for other parts of extended-range weather forecasting, climate analy- the globe requiring support in marine service sis and research, and climate change prediction. It activities could be developed, using as a basis the is clear that the traditional marine meteorological experience acquired from the South-East Asian observations from the Voluntary Observing Ships Centre. (VOS) and the Ships of Opportunity (SOO) will continue to serve as a significant component of As regards safety of life and property, progress marine observing systems for the foreseeable has been made for the incorporation of the future. At the same time, major developments in Global Maritime Distress and Safety System marine observing and communication systems, in (GMDSS) of the International Maritime particular those which make use of modern ocean Organization (IMO) into the International buoys, upper-air soundings from ships, oceano- Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS). graphic satellites and other remote sensing The new WMO Marine Broadcast System for the platforms, will go a long way towards ensuring GMDSS provides safety-related meteorological data availability on a regular basis, particularly in information for shipping for all ocean areas. the southern hemisphere. National Meteorological Services now have the responsibility to ensure that the Marine Broadcast In this regard, the Commission must continue its System continues to function effectively in the work for the realization of the full potential of future and that it remains responsive to the present and planned observing systems, through, requirements of all marine users. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

Another global initiative, still undergoing trials, is System. The review was carried out in December the new WMO Marine Pollution Emergency 1996 through a Meeting of Eminent Persons on the Response Support System (MPERSS), which will Geosciences and the UN System. The objective ensure that appropriate and timely was to consider ways of advancing the meteorological and oceanographic advice and geosciences and applying these advances to some services are provided by National Meteorological of the major challenges facing the peoples of the Services to those authorities responsible for world, in a most cost-effective manner. The meet- dealing with marine pollution emergencies. It is ing discussed options to improve the effectiveness important that the System be strengthened and of the UN agencies in dealing with issues within implemented worldwide. the geosciences and agreed that a business-as- usual approach within the UN System was entirely The very nature of the work of the Commission inadequate to address them. I have conveyed the requires considerable international cooperation outcome of the meeting to Member countries and and coordination between WMO and other Executive Heads of relevant UN organizations, as organizations and agencies with interest in well as to the Inter-Agency Committee on oceanography and in the marine environment. Sustainable Development (IACSD), which coordi- Much of this coordination is carried out through nates UN agencies’ input into the UN Commission inter-agency mechanisms, such as the Inter- on Sustainable Development (UNCSD). WMO will Secretariat Committee on Scientific Programmes continue to follow up on the issue of enhanced Relating to Oceanography (ICSPRO) and the UN coordination with the other relevant organiza- Administrative Committee on Coordination (ACC) tions, especially in those fields that are crucial to Sub-Committee on Oceans and Coastal Areas. progress in meteorology and climate prediction.

This latter Committee was specifically established This brings me to an important and related topic to implement the ocean-related activities of for your deliberations. During 1996, the Agenda 21 of the United Nations Conference on Executive Councils of both WMO and IOC 258 Environment and Development (UNCED). In this considered the possibility of the co-sponsorship regard, the Global Ocean Observing System of the Commission for Marine Meteorology (GOOS), being developed by IOC in cooperation (CMM) by IOC. The aim of such a move would be with WMO and other partners, is very much to bring about a more effective and efficient related to other WMO programmes and activities, collaboration in, and coordination of, marine, such as the World Weather Watch (WWW) and meteorological and physical oceanographic the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). activities, and the implementation of the many The implementation of GOOS and GCOS will joint activities already in existence, such as enhance our understanding and prediction of SEACAMP, WCRP, GOOS and GCOS. Despite phenomena such as the El Niño and contribute to many constitutional, financial and technical the improvement of climate models, as part of questions, both governing bodies agreed that the the activities of the World Climate Research subject should be studied in greater detail, taking Programme (WCRP), and also enhance the into account the broader examination of the benefits of the Climate Information and whole structure of the WMO Technical Production Services (CLIPS). Major steps in the Commissions. Preliminary studies by experts implementation of these programmes can and representing both organizations are before you must now be taken. for your consideration and advice. I recommend that this question be treated thoroughly, and I The inter-agency mechanisms for the coordination look forward to your concrete proposals (see of ocean-related activities have proven quite Chapter 13.2). useful, but are increasingly found to be inadequate to meet the growing challenges with the ever- Another issue requiring the urgent attention of dwindling resources. Therefore, and in the Commission is the need for the involvement recognition of the increasing interdependence of as many Member countries as possible in the that exists among many WMO and other interna- scientific and technical work of the Commission. tional programmes, an initiative was taken to have You may be pleased to note that the Eleventh a broader review of the geosciences, especially Session of the Commission for Basic Systems meteorology, hydrology, oceanography and seis- (CBS) (Cairo, 28 October to 7 November 1996) mology, in the context of the activities of the UN was the first Technical Commission in which all Chapter 12 — Challenges to WMO bodies six WMO Regions were appropriately represent- charged with the responsibility of guiding its ed, with support from WMO. The fruitful experi- affairs during the next intersessional period, to ence gained at CBS will guide us as to whether ensure a true global partnership. this arrangement could be extended to other Commissions during the next financial period. I I wish to take this opportunity to inform you that, note with pleasure the CMM arrangements for in recognition of the importance of the marine ensuring appropriate interaction with the WMO environment, the WMO Executive Council Regions in marine matters, through its Working decided that the theme for the World Group on Education, Training and Meteorological Day (WMD) in 1998 would be Implementation Support, and that the member- “Weather, oceans and human activity”. The ship of the Group includes the six regional chair- theme would contribute to the 1998 International men or rapporteurs on marine meteorological Year of the Ocean. I hope that you will exchange services. At the same time, however, we should views on how to celebrate the event so that continue to strive towards universal participation decision makers, the public and the media would of Member countries in CMM, since the work of appreciate the contribution of the marine this Commission affects nearly all countries of meteorological services to national sustainable the world. In this context, the Commission development. I would urge you to associate with should also keep in mind the need to effect “bal- this event all national institutions involved with ancing” with regard to the officers who will be oceanographic activities.

Address at the opening of the twelfth session of the Commission for Instruments and Methods of Observation 259

(Casablanca, Morocco, 4 May 1998)

I wish to extend a warm welcome to all Data Processing System Centre here in participants, and in particular to those delegates Casablanca, for which your Government installed of Member countries who are participating in a a new high- performance computer system in session of the Commission for the first time. I am 1995. This and other new facilities will, no doubt, sure that they will make valuable contributions to enable the Directorate of Meteorology to the work of the Commission, and that they will contribute further to the socio-economic also benefit substantially from their participation. development of the Kingdom and also to the advancement and promotion of meteorological I wish to take this opportunity to express my and hydrological activities in Africa. I would like sincere appreciation, and that of the World to thank Mr Azzedine Diouri, Director of the Meteorological Organization (WMO), to the National Directorate of Meteorology, and his staff, Government of the Kingdom of Morocco for for the excellent arrangements made to ensure hosting this session in the city of Casablanca. The the success of this very important session. hosting of this session, as was the case with a number of other major WMO meetings in the I wish to pay a special tribute to the president of past, is an expression of your Government’s the Commission, Dr J. Kruus, and the vice- strong support and commitment to the president, Dr A. Van Gysegem, for their able programmes and activities of WMO. leadership in guiding the Commission over the past eight years and for the outstanding work This is also demonstrated by the support given to which has been accomplished during the inter- maintaining a high-quality national observing sessional period. My thanks are also addressed to network in the context of WMO’s World Weather the chairpersons and members of the various Watch Programme, and to a modern WMO Global working groups, and to the rapporteurs, for their Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

contribution to the work of the Commission ened over the years. For example, experts from during the same period. manufacturing companies have provided support to the work of CIMO, particularly for tasks deal- Your Commission has a significant responsibility ing with pressing instrumentation problems. I of ensuring the worldwide standardization of urge the continuation of this collaboration, meteorological instruments and methods of which will be beneficial to the future work of observation, as enshrined in the WMO the Commission. In this connection, I am pleased Convention. During the inter-sessional period, the that, once more, the exhibition METEOREX-98 work of the Commission has focused on the will be held together with the technical confer- implementation of the relevant parts of the WMO ence TECO-98 immediately after the session of Fourth Long-term Plan, particularly on: CIMO next week. I invite you all to participate and meet with the manufacturers of meteorologi- (a) The development of regulatory and cal instruments and to discuss your instrument guidance material for different types of requirements with them. meteorological and other geophysical measurements; In addition to these developments since your last (b) The development and standardization of session in Geneva in February 1994, several other measurement methodologies; and major events with far-reaching implications for (c) Performance characteristics of sensors and your work have taken place. In June 1997, the instruments. United Nations General Assembly Special Session (UNGASS) reviewed the implementation of In this regard, an important accomplishment over Agenda 21 of the United Nations Conference on this period has been the updated sixth edition of Environment and Development (UNCED). the Guide to Meteorological Instruments and UNGASS adopted a Programme for the further Methods of Observation. I am very pleased to implementation of Agenda 21, which gives high note that the Guide is being distributed in various priority to climate- and water-related issues, 260 WMO languages. In addition, through the including the strengthening of systematic Commission, several WMO Member countries observational networks. UNGASS also reaffirmed have collaborated with the International calls on national governments and local Organization for Standardization (ISO) to develop communities to develop the skills and expertise standards for meteorological instruments. This needed to properly manage their environment partnership has avoided duplication of effort, and natural resources, in order to enhance supported the standardization of meteorological capacity building and sustainable development. observations, and has given a greater visibility to This clearly includes the deployment of WMO’s activities. Also, successful WMO appropriate instrumentation for environmental instrument intercomparisons were carried out observation and measurement. The challenge for and the results have substantially contributed to CIMO is therefore to ensure standardization improving the homogeneity of measurements and between current and new instrumentation, and the quality of observational data. I would like to the training of staff for instrument servicing and thank all the countries and their respective maintenance, in order that the necessary basic National Meteorological Services (NMSs) that observational data can continue to lead to have hosted intercomparisons and to express our progress on delicate questions, such as those appreciation to the instrument manufacturers related to climate change and the environment. who participated through their respective National Meteorological Services. Another event relates to the phasing out of the Omega Radio-navigation System in September In this regard, instrument manufacturers and 1997. The increasingly fruitful collaboration providers of meteorological equipment have between CIMO and the Commission for Basic played an important role in the activities of the Systems (CBS) was most useful in developing Commision for Instruments and Methods of guidance for alternative solutions to replace the Observation (CIMO) by guaranteeing high-quality Omega-based upperwind equipment in many measurements through the continuous improve- parts of the world. As a result, a significant loss of ments of their sensors and instruments. The part- upper-wind data was averted, as most of the nership between WMO and the community of affected stations have now been converted to instrument manufacturers has therefore strength- other — mostly GPS- or LORAN-based — systems. Chapter 12 — Challenges to WMO bodies

Yet another significant event was the threat in four of the six Regional Associations thus far, posed by the re-allocation of radio frequencies who will work as focal points for CIMO activities used for radiosondes and other meteorological within the regions. I hope that it will be possible systems. The support given by CIMO to CBS was to include these Rapporteurs in future sessions of important in dealing with this issue and as a result the Commission. of WMO’s involvement, the 1997 International Telecommunications Union (ITU) World Radio Thirdly, you will be considering the preparation Conference maintained the use of the frequency of your programme of activities as part of the ranges allocated for radiosonde stations around Fifth Long-term Plan (5LTP). An important aspect the world. However, as the demand for additional in that process is a review of the WMO structure, frequencies continues to grow due to continuing which is being undertaken to improve the advances in telecommunication technologies, we efficiency and cost-effectiveness of the all need to be aware that competition for “our” Organization and its constituent bodies, frequencies will persist. I therefore urge the particularly the technical commissions. It was felt Commission to maintain a diligent approach to that there was a need for the technical this important matter in the future. commissions to review their role, set new priorities and seize the opportunities offered by Among the important items on your agenda, four the increasing concern expressed for the of them need particular mention: First, in the area preservation of our environment. This would of training activities and capacity- building, probably involve a thorough revision of the notwithstanding the financial constraints, Terms of Reference of each Commission. In this imaginative ways should be developed to regard, one of the proposals being considered is continue the training programmes for instrument the merging of CBS and CIMO into a new specialists in the coming years. In this regard, I Commission. The presidents of both am particularly pleased that a total of eleven Commissions were requested to study this Regional Instrument Centres (RICs), six of them proposal in detail, and their findings were since the last CIMO session, have been considered by the April 1998 session of the EC 261 established within five Regional Associations. Working Group on Long-term Planning. Taking These RICs will contribute to the development of into account previous proposals submitted to the the capabilities of NMSs by assisting in the Executive Council, and various analyses on the calibration of their instruments and through the implications of these proposals, the group organization of workshops. The first meeting of recommended that serious consideration be given Heads of RICs, which will be held during this by the Executive Council and Congress to the week here in Casablanca, is therefore important possible merger of the two Commissions. An for the exchange of experiences and the important element will be whether or not there coordination of future activities. I would like to will be the continuing availability of experienced encourage Member countries that have suitable instrument experts from the NMSs to effectively expertise and laboratories for maintaining and carry out the work related to the Instruments and calibrating meteorological instruments, to offer Methods of Observation Programme. I would the use of these facilities to other Members. propose that the Commission give priority attention to this issue from its own perspective, Secondly, the tasks for CIMO and the related in order to provide further ideas for consideration Instruments and Methods of Observation by EC and eventually by Congress. Programme (IMOP) continue to become increasingly complex due to new technological Fourthly, I am pleased to note that over the 45- developments in instrumentation and equipment. year history of CIMO, there has been a steady To cope with these challenges, it is necessary for increase in the number of Member countries the Commission to consider new developments participating in the work of the Commission, as at a very early stage and, if possible, before new well as an increase in the participation at CIMO equipment is used operationally. This is sessions. This includes a number of developing important because CIMO’s decisions and countries and countries with economies in recommendations affect the future course of transition that have experts in instruments and in scientific and technical activities of all Member methods of observation. To maintain its universal countries. In this regard, I am particularly pleased characteristics, I urge the Commission to keep in that the Commission has identified Rapporteurs view the need for an appropriate balance with Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

regard to the officers of the Commission and There is much to be accomplished in this last members of the working groups and rapporteurs, session of the Commission for the millennium. I who will be charged with the responsibilities of would like to assure you of WMO’s as well as my guiding the Commission’s work during the inter- own personal support for your Commission’s sessional period. work.

Address at the opening of the thirteenth session of the WMO Commission for Atmospheric Sciences

(Oslo, Norway, 12 February 2002)

It is indeed a pleasure for me to be with you disasters of meteorological and hydrological today at the opening of the thirteenth session of origin and human-induced chemical incidents. the Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS) of the World Meteorological Organization Prof. Obasi challenges CAS to take steps to (WMO). I wish to extend a warm welcome to the improve scientific understanding of climate delegates of all Member countries and to the change and variability, contamination of the representatives of partner organizations attending atmosphere, numerical weather prediction, the session. I would also like to take this precipitation enhancement, tropical cyclones opportunity to express my sincere appreciation and other extreme events. and that of WMO to Professor Anton Eliassen, and 262 through him to the Government of Norway, for Another issue requiring the urgent attention of hosting this session. This is a clear demonstration the Commission, as with the other technical of the Government’s strong support and commissions, is the continuing need for the commitment to the ideals and to the programmes greater involvement of developing countries and and activities of WMO. I would also like to thank countries with economies in transition in the Professor Eliassen and his staff for the excellent scientific and technical work of the Organization. arrangements made to ensure the success of this In particular, it is essential that as many Member important event. countries as possible participate in the work of technical commissions, since commissions take I would further like to take this opportunity to decisions and make far-reaching thank the president of the Commission, Prof. recommendations that affect virtually all Eliassen, and the former vice-president, Prof. countries of the world. In this context, the Hong Yan, for their able leadership in guiding the Commission should continue to keep in mind the Commission during the intersessional period. My need for an appropriate balance with regard to thanks are also addressed to the chairpersons and the officers of the Commission and members of members of the working groups and to the the working groups and rapporteurs, who will be rapporteurs for their contribution to the work of charged with the responsibilities of guiding the the Commission since its twelfth session. Commission’s work during the intersessional period. Since the last session of the Commission held in Skopje, the Former Yugoslav Republic of As some of you may be aware, I have had a long Macedonia in February 1998, there have been involvement with CAS, beginning in 1965 when I developments on issues relevant to areas of was designated the Chairman of the Working interest to the Commission, and which require Group in Tropical Meteorology. CAS was then the attention of the Commission. These issues known as the Commission for Aerology. In 1978, include: climate change, transboundary transport at its seventh session in Manila, Philippines, I had of pollutants, frequent occurrences of smoke and the honour to be elected Vice-President of the haze from forest and bush fires, ozone layer Commission. You can now appreciate the long depletion, increased occurrences of natural association I have had with the Commission. As Chapter 12 — Challenges to WMO bodies the sessions of technical commissions are all cherish and which I have had the privilege to convened once every four years, I would like to serve for a number of years. I would like to assure mention that this will be the last session of the you of my continued commitment to the Commission that I will be addressing as Secretary- promotion of research in atmospheric sciences General of WMO. I would therefore like to take and to ensuring that WMO continues to assume a this opportunity to thank all of you and, through leadership role in all relevant global initiatives and you, your Governments for the support I have activities aimed at addressing the concerns of received over the years before and during my humanity as a prestigious, respected and tenure as Secretary-General of an Organization we exemplary Organization.

Statement at the conjoint session of the Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology/Meteorology Divisional Meeting

(Montreal, Canada, 9 September 2002)

I should like, first of all, to express my sincere and necessary coordination with regard to interna- appreciation to Mr Assad Kotaite, President of the tional aeronautical meteorology. This was soon Council of the International Civil Aviation after the first commercial air transportation Organization (ICAO) and to Mr R. C. Costa Pereira, became operational. Over the years, fruitful collab- 263 Secretary-General of ICAO, for the kind offer oration has developed between the International extended to WMO to hold this important event in Meteorological Organization and its successor the ICAO Headquarters building and for the excel- WMO, and the International Commission for lent support services and facilities provided for the Aeronautical Navigation (ICAN) and its successor event. I welcome all delegates from WMO ICAO. The origin of such cooperation can be seen Members and ICAO Contracting States as well as in the effects of weather on aviation that gained representatives from other international organiza- wide coverage from that day of 17 December 1903 tions and the aviation industry. when the first successful flights of an engine- powered aircraft were terminated because a gust This conjoint session, which is the seventh since of wind overturned and damaged the aircraft. Just the first one in 1954, is further testimony to the a week before these events, an editorial page of a excellent relationship that has always existed very influential New York newspaper, dated 10 between WMO and ICAO. The cooperation December 1903, carried the following remark: between ICAO and WMO is embodied in the formal Working Arrangements which came into “…We hope that Professor Langley will not put his effect in 1954. In essence, the Arrangements substantial greatness as a scientist in further peril provide for ICAO to take the lead in setting the by continuing to waste his time and money requirements for meteorological service for inter- involved in further airship experiments. Life is national air navigation and for WMO to take the short, and he is capable of services to humanity lead for specifying the methods and practices to be incomparably greater than can be expected to used to meet these requirements. In this respect, it result from trying to fly. … For students and inves- is to be recalled that the International tigators of the Langley type, there are more useful Meteorological Organization (IMO), the predeces- employments”. sor of WMO, had established as far back as 1919 the Commission for the Application of Today, no one can dispute the place of the aviation Meteorology to Aerial Navigation, which later industry in the economies of nations and its contri- became the International Commission for bution to the well-being of society. The Aeronautical Meteorology, to provide guidance tremendous growth in civil aviation activities is Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

highlighted in the annual Review of Civil Aviation in the three components of the WWW. The Global for 2000, published in the ICAO Journal of Observing System (GOS) component comprises July/August 2001 that indicates that over 1.6 surface-based and space-based observing subsys- billion passengers have been transported in 2000, tems, the Global Dataprocessing System (GDPS) is and that over 400 billion tonne-kilometres have composed of an integrated network of data been flown. This growth is in no small measure processing centres equipped with modern facili- due to the safety and efficiency of aviation opera- ties, including powerful computers, and the tions. In this regard, weather remains an important Global Telecommunication System (GTS) is a parameter in the aviation equation and indeed worldwide system for the rapid exchange of data many National Meteorological Services (NMSs) and information. were initially established to provide primarily weather information to aviation. Today, the In order to enhance the GOS, the WMO Aircraft Services, under the aegis of WMO’s Aeronautical Meteorological Data Relay (AMDAR) Programme Meteorology Programme and with up-to-date was established in 1998, in close cooperation scientific and technical advice from the with various airlines and National Meteorological Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology, Services. Currently, over 130 000 AMDAR provide cost- effective meteorological services in observations per day are being exchanged support of safe, regular and efficient aviation oper- through the GTS. In addition, six operational ations worldwide. near-polar orbiting meteorological satellites and eight operational geostationary environmental One of the most prominent outcomes of interna- observation satellites complete the global data tional cooperation in serving the aviation industry coverage. Such data have resulted in a remarkable has been the development and implementation of improvement in the quality of weather forecasts the World Area Forecast System (WAFS) which in support of aviation operations. This ensemble started over 20 years ago. The system is primarily of data provided to various weather forecasting dependent on the provision of basic meteorologi- centres, including the World Area Forecast 264 cal data to run numerical weather prediction Centres (WAFCs), constitutes the basic ingredient models that generate aviation information. At the for the generation of meteorological information. outset, it was obvious to both the aviation and the The uniqueness of the overall WMO system is meteorological communities that without the that the data and the products are provided in a timely availability of basic meteorological data free and unrestricted manner to all National there would be no aviation meteorological infor- Meteorological Services and to WAFS Centres. mation. This was indeed well recognized in Recommendation 3.2/1, of the conjoint session of Among the broad range of external and internal CAeM and the ICAO Communication/Meteorology factors that have implications for the NMSs is the Divisional Meeting held here in Montreal in 1982. increasing tendency toward the commercialization By this Recommendation, the conjoint session or privatization of the Services. This tendency may invited WMO to, “arrange for the necessary World adversely affect the current funding level of NMSs Weather Watch support to the world area forecast despite users’ increasing demand for improved centres and regional area forecast centres and, in services and new delivery systems. In view of all particular, for the availability of the required basic these new elements, I should call upon this data on a global scale in the case of world area conjoint session to give due recognition to the forecast centres and, for the areas of responsibil- important contribution of NMSs and the WWW in ity, in the case of the regional area forecast the provision of meteorological service for interna- centres”. tional air navigation, so that national authorities and the international community give higher prior- As you are aware, WMO’s World Weather Watch ity to the strengthening of the infrastructure and (WWW) Programme, comprising an integrated human resources of the NMSs. system composed of National Services and facilities owned and operated by WMO Members, has Today, the advent of the final phase of WAFS as responded effectively to this request, enabling the envisaged in 1982 is imminent, with the full trans- WAFS to achieve its ambitious goals. Over the past fer this year of all Regional Area Forecast Centres’ two decades, the unflinching commitment of responsibilities to the London and Washington WMO Members and advances in science and tech- WAFCs. The ability of the two WAFCs to produce nology have resulted in considerable development semi-automated significant weather forecasts and Chapter 12 — Challenges to WMO bodies to transmit these by satellite broadcasts in digital Finally, I have also noted that this conjoint session, codes, to be received by over 200 satellite terminal under the item dealing with “Institutional changes equipment in more than 150 countries, has come and trends in the provision of meteorological about through the visionary work that service to international air navigation” will commenced more than 20 years ago. In this consider two other issues of major importance to regard, I would like to thank all WMO Members WMO, namely the use of the Internet to access for their commitment to WAFS and, in particular, aeronautical meteorological information and the to thank Finland, France, United Kingdom, the commercialization and privatization of aeronauti- United States and others for providing a number of cal meteorological services. As regards the use of WAFS satellite terminal equipment and worksta- the Internet, the WMO Executive Council tions, mostly within the framework of the WMO requested that due consideration should be given Voluntary Cooperation Programme. to adequate security measures to ensure the efficient and safe operations of WWW centres and the I would like to mention a few other issues that Global Telecommunication Systems and to the the conjoint session could consider: First, we implications related to data exchange policy. As should take cognizance that the advent of more regards the access to aeronautical meteorological advanced commercial aircraft, the advances in information, it is to be recalled that in accordance telecommunications and computers, and the with Annex 4 to Resolution 40 of the WMO improvement in weather observing system and Twelfth World Meteorological Congress adopted numerical weather prediction for more accurate in 1995, “Aeronautical information generated and longer range forecasts, would no doubt result specifically to serve the needs of aviation and in changes in the requirements and the provision controlled under the Convention of International of aeronautical services. Efforts should therefore Civil Aviation (Chicago, 1944) is not included in concentrate on effective planning to ensure that the application of the practice”. This practice WAFS continues to meet fully the evolving relates to specifications for the classification and aeronautical requirements. conditions attached to the use of data and products exchanged among WMO Members. 265 Secondly, as you are aware, quality management based on ISO 9000 that has been introduced in The issue of recovery of meteorological costs for ICAO Annex 3 and WMO Technical Regulation aeronautical services and the growing trend [C.3.1] became applicable on 1 November 2001. towards alternative service delivery including the However, WMO is currently reviewing the imple- commercialization and privatization of these mentation of quality management based on ISO services are of concern to WMO and NMSs. I will 9000. The WMO Executive Council felt that any urge the conjoint session to give due consideration mandatory implementation of ISO 9000 would to these issues which have long-term implications lead to considerable expenses to NMSs and to for the NMSs. widening the gap between developed and developing countries. I would therefore urge this In view of these considerations, WMO is particu- conjoint session to take into account the views larly looking forward to the results of your expressed by the Executive Council by maintain- discussions on these issues, which will form the ing the optional nature of the implementation of basis for further consultations between our two ISO 9000. Organizations.

Thirdly, in order to support and facilitate the tran- As in the past, I wish to assure you that WMO will sition from the current conventional provision of spare no efforts in reaching the goals that ICAO international air navigation to the ICAO and WMO have set for the provision of meteoro- Communication Navigation Surveillance/Air logical service for international air navigation for Traffic Management (CNS/ATM) system, aeronauti- the present and the future. I therefore look cal meteorological services must meet global as forward to your recommendations on many of the well as regional and national requirements and important issues to be discussed under the various contribute to improving aviation safety and to agenda items of this conjoint session. I am confi- providing an identifiable cost benefit to the avia- dent that your deliberations will be conducted in tion industry. In this regard, consideration should the traditional spirit of cooperation and mutual be given to support the aeronautical meteorologi- understanding, which has been the hallmark of cal services of developing countries. ICAO and WMO meetings. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development Statement at the opening of the extraordinary session of the Commission for Basic Systems

(Cairns, Australia, 4 December 2002)

I wish to extend a warm welcome to all partici- responsibilities for WMO’s World Meteorological pants, and in particular to those delegates of Centre in Melbourne, two Regional Specialized Members who are participating in a session of the Meteorological Centres (RSMCs) with geographi- Commission for the first time. I am sure that they cal specialization, in Melbourne and in Darwin, will make valuable contributions to the work of and for an RSMC in Melbourne with activity the Commission, and that they will also benefit specialization in the provision of transport model substantially from their participation. On behalf of products for environmental emergency response. the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) WMO is pleased and grateful for the support and and on my own, I wish to express my appreciation contributions of Australia to the World Weather to the Government of Australia for hosting this Watch Programme. session. As was the case with a number of other major WMO meetings in the past, the hosting of Since the last extraordinary session the CBS held the Commission session, as well as the Technical in Karlsruhe, Germany, in 1998, major events and Conference on Data-processing and Forecasting developments of importance to the Commission Systems (TECO-DPFS-2002) held prior to this have taken place. These include the 1999 Geneva session, are further expressions of your Declaration at the Thirteenth World Government’s strong support and commitment to Meteorological Congress; the setting up of the the Programmes and activities of WMO. I would International Strategy for Disaster Reduction 266 like to thank Dr Zillman and his staff for the excel- (ISDR) by the United Nations at the end of the lent arrangements made to ensure the success of International Decade for Natural Disaster this very important session of Commission for Reduction (IDNDR) in 1999; the United Nations Basic Systems (CBS). Millennium Summit Declaration and the ensuing Millennium Development Goals (MDGs); the I wish to pay tribute to the acting president, and continuing implementation of Agenda 21 of the former vice-president of the Commission, Dr 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment Gusev, for his able leadership in guiding the and Development (UNCED) and its related Commission. My thanks are also addressed to the conventions on climate change, desertification chairpersons and members of the Open and biodiversity; and most recently the World Programme Area Groups and their various expert Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD), teams and to the rapporteurs for the outstanding held in Johannesburg, South Africa, earlier this work which has been accomplished since the year, committing the world community to twelfth session of CBS held in Geneva two years combating poverty, ensuring socio-economic ago. I also wish to take this opportunity to express development and reversing the degradation of the my thanks to Dr G. Love, from Australia, for his environment. contributions over many years to the work of the Commission as a member, as chairman of a work- At all these events, high priority was given to ing group, as vice-president and later as president weather, climate and water-related issues, and in of the Commission until 10th May 2002, when he particular to the need to strengthen observational took up his appointment as Secretary of the networks and to ensure the provision of related WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental Panel on Climate information in support of sustainable develop- Change. ment, especially of developing countries. The challenge for WMO is therefore to ensure, through It is a pleasure to have this session hosted by the work of CBS, the subsequent development of Australia, which has a long tradition of actively the basic systems infrastructure that supports all supporting the WMO’s World Weather Watch other programmes. In this way, WMO can Programme (WWW). This is especially demon- contribute to meeting the objectives of national strated by Australia’s global and regional development plans and major international strate- Chapter 12 — Challenges to WMO bodies gies while contributing to progress in the study of A related challenge in the context of these GOS complex meteorological questions, such as those developments and in meeting data exchange related to weather prediction, climate change and requirements is to seize the opportunity of the the environment. I should like to highlight a few rapidly evolving information and communication topics which I believe deserve the particular atten- technologies (ICT) and services for the improve- tion of the Commission. One of these is the ment of the WWW Information Systems and fundamental redesign of the Global Observing Services (ISS), and in particular its Global System (GOS) as stressed by Thirteenth World Telecommunication System (GTS). I am pleased to Meteorological Congress in 1999. I am pleased that note the progress made in the improved Main CBS has made substantial progress in this direction Telecommunication Network (MTN) and in intro- and that the redesign activities benefit from a wide ducing advanced data communication techniques range of expertise in observing technology, and services that bring early benefits to the whole network design and numerical weather prediction, GTS. The Commission should therefore continue with active collaboration from users of such infor- its successful efforts in establishing the most mation including other programmes of WMO. The appropriate technology standards and in guiding related studies address innovative ways for the use of new competitive telecommunication network operations and the introduction and services, that will all offer, rather quickly, techni- deployment of new observational technologies, cal advantages and improved cost-effectiveness to especially in remote and/or extraterritorial areas, Members. In this regard, I should like to draw whilst giving special attention to the involvement attention to the related development in Region VI and participation of developing countries. (Europe) where the transition from point-to- point circuits to a managed data-communication I believe that the future integrated Global network has resulted now in a reduction of more Observing System, driven by Members’ require- than 25 per cent in operational costs for participat- ments, should build upon existing components, ing countries. This experience may be useful in both surface- and space-based, and capitalize on strengthening the GTS and information systems of existing observing technologies, not presently the developing countries and those with 267 incorporated or fully exploited, resulting in better economies in transition. data, products and services from NMHSs. This approach could globally evolve into a surface- The success of the improved GTS, and more gener- based component of the GOS that would be more ally of projects related to information systems in complete and ensure timely data distribution from meeting the needs of Member countries, depends optimized radiosonde launches, targeted observa- on their concerted efforts and on expert guidance tions, automated stations, radars and wind from the Commission. An important development profilers, enhanced AMDAR data, increased in the ICT context is the Internet, which is playing oceanic coverage through expanded ASAP obser- an increasingly important role in NMHSs’ activities vations, drifting buoys, the Array of Real-time in all regions. For several small NMHSs, the Geostrophic Oceanography, in short ARGO, and Internet is the only affordable telecommunication possible use of Unmanned Aeronautical Vehicles. means for transmitting meteorological information, despite its possible shortcomings with As for the space-based component of the current respect to sustained availability and operational and future GOS, environmental satellite systems risks. Here also, the Commission’s guidance is stand out as essential elements. The inclusion of required in advising on the most appropriate and appropriate Research and Development satellites cost-effective procedures and implementation into the sub-system will complement the existing options that would minimize the operational and operational environmental satellites and should security risks. provide large sets of global observations to assist WMO Members in meeting their ever-increasing Standardisation in the representation of observa- challenges. In this regard, I am pleased to note that tional data for ensuring an efficient real-time Consultative Meetings on High-Level Policy on exchange and operational use has always been a Satellite Matters have consolidated further the fundamental requirement for WMO. Despite their coordinated planning and implementation of long history, traditional code forms are no longer geostationary and polar-orbiting space-based adequate for meeting the demands for new data components, including, in particular, contingency types with higher resolution and accuracy as well plans in response to WMO’s requirements. as for metadata. The self-description, flexibility and Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

expandability of Table Driven Code Forms, in Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) products, short TDCF, is expected to meet all present and including the means of their dissemination and future needs. In this regard, the Commission has procedures for their verification. An important embarked on an ambitious migration strategy to activity in this regard relates to improvements of TDCF that would meet the challenging demands severe weather forecasts through the use of and unify the present diverse data formats into a Ensemble Prediction Systems output combined universal system. However, the impact of migra- with deterministic forecast products and tion on staff and financial resources is a legitimate Nowcasting tools. These activities critically concern of WMO Members. While the cost of the depend on availability of sufficient and high-qual- migration is expected, in the long run, to be ity observations. For this reason, I would outweighed by the advantages of migration, I encourage the Commission to pursue its efforts in would urge the Commission to give due considera- addressing issues related to enhanced data quality tion to these concerns in its challenging task by control procedures and the exchange of related allowing, for example, adequate flexibility and monitoring results. sufficient time for the change-over. As regards the provision of long-range and Another strategic goal set for the Commission is seasonal to interannual forecasts and related prod- the development of the Future WMO Information uct verification standards, cooperative efforts System (FWIS) concept, as an overarching through the Inter-Commission Task Team on approach to meeting the data-collection and infor- Regional Climate Centres, which the Executive mation-sharing requirements for all WMO Council had set up, involving the Commissions for programmes. There is now a challenging window Atmospheric Sciences, Basic Systems and of opportunity to arrive at an agreed standard for Climatology and relevant Commission Teams, the Future WMO Information System. In this have led to progress in defining the modalities for context, it is recalled that the Executive Council implementation of the corresponding infrastruc- was pleased with the progress made by CBS but ture. The sharing of responsibilities among 268 identified several related policy issues that had to Commissions for the coordination of this cross- be considered. The Commission was therefore cutting activity will, no doubt, facilitate early requested to further refine the FWIS concept and operational implementation. A subject of impor- to develop more detailed technical information, in tance to Members is the international arrangement particular with respect to ensuring a smooth tran- for emergency response related to nuclear acci- sition from existing systems. dents. These arrangements have been reviewed and developed further, in close cooperation with Another important subject is the issue related to the International Atomic Energy Agency and other radio frequencies for meteorological activities. I relevant organizations such as the Comprehensive am very pleased that the radio frequency Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBTO) with which allocations to meteorological systems have been WMO has formal working arrangements. WMO adequately safeguarded or even consolidated. plays an important role in this connection through There is, however, no doubt that the pressure on its unique and critical numerical weather predic- radio-frequency bands will continue as a result of tion (NWP) capability of predicting the the increasing expansion of new atmospheric transport of hazardous material. It is radiocommunication systems. In this regard, the now important for the Commission to give further World Radiocommunication Conference 2003 attention to the development of this modelling will again address these issues of importance to capability and the appropriate emergency WMO. The Commission should therefore pursue response procedures for other types of atmos- its contributions to the activities of the pheric pollution events, such as volcanic Radiocommunication Sector of the International eruptions, chemical accidents, wild-land fires and Telecommunications Union (ITU), as well as airborne diseases. provide advice to NMHSs to assist them in coordinating their positions with the national The Public Weather Services (PWS) Programme radiocommunication authorities. continues to assist Members in providing comprehensive weather and related services to ensure Turning now to the Global Data-Processing community safety and welfare and contribute to Systems (GDPS) Programme, efforts have contin- sustainable socio-economic development. In order ued in responding to the growing interest in to satisfy the growing user demands for more Chapter 12 — Challenges to WMO bodies accurate and useful meteorological information, the developing countries. I would therefore priority should continue to be given to building encourage the Commission and Members to the capacity of NMSs in service delivery and devel- improve upon the traditional approaches in oping partnerships with the user community, capacity building and to pursue the development especially the media. Indeed, the PWS Programme of innovative approaches, including sponsoring has been actively promoting the use, by the media, training events related to basic systems, of official NMS forecasts, warnings and informa- supporting relevant expert missions and tion, with appropriately acknowledged sources to promoting technology transfer from advanced preserve the unique authority of NMSs. In this WWW centres to developing NMSs. In the long regard, I wish to express our appreciation to the term, the preparation of the activities of the Meteorological Service of Hong Kong, China, for WWW as part of the WMO Sixth Long-term Plan developing and operating the Severe Weather (6LTP) is a task of paramount importance for CBS. Information Centre (SWIC) and the World The Plan covers consecutive and overlapping 10- Weather Information Service (WWIS) which year periods and provides a consolidated set of would provide authoritative weather warnings and policies, objectives, strategies, priorities and forecasts to the media and the public. I would urge principal expected outcomes for each of the Members to increase their support to the WMO programmes. It is therefore one of the Programme, in particular through their active most important instrument that the Commission participation in the Web projects, and invite the may use in shaping the WWW Programme for the Commission to pursue its efforts in the further years to come. This session of the Commission development of the PWS Programme, in collabora- should therefore give its full attention to the tion with relevant WMO programmes. WWW section of the draft 6LTP as regards the programme priority activities and expected It is to be recalled that in view of its growing outcomes. responsibilities, the Commission had agreed to implement a new working structure, for increased Another issue requiring the urgent attention of the efficiency and effectiveness. The merits of the new Commission, as with the other technical commis- 269 structure have been confirmed and, with the sions, is the continuing need for greater encouragement from the Executive Council, other involvement of developing countries and coun- technical commissions are using it as a model. I am tries with economies in transition in the scientific pleased to note that CBS has put much emphasis and technical work of the Organization. In particu- on regional involvement and capacity building, lar, it is essential that as many Member countries as and has taken steps to encourage the participation possible participate in the work of technical and contributions of other technical commissions commissions, since commissions such as CBS take and relevant international organizations, several of decisions and make far-reaching recommendations which are represented here. The above considera- that affect all countries of the world. In this tions show that the success of the WWW lies in its context, the Commission should continue to keep ability to develop and function as a coherent in mind the need for an appropriate balance with worldwide system for the benefit of all WMO regard to the officers of the Commission and Members. I am also pleased that a concerted effort members of the working groups and rapporteurs, is being made to keep Members fully informed of who will be charged with the responsibilities of developments through innovative procedures guiding the Commission’s work during the inters- such as the establishment of Web pages and the essional period. dissemination of a quarterly CBS Newsletter. Furthermore, I would encourage the emphasis that I am confident that the Session will address the has been placed on strengthening the mutually concerns of its Members with foresight and deter- beneficial links with WMO regional associations so mination in the traditional spirit of cooperation, as to ensure the greater involvement of their repre- mutual understanding, commitment and optimism. sentatives, including the chairpersons of the I would like to assure you of my continued regional WWW working groups. commitment to the promotion of the World Weather Watch, and to ensuring that WMO contin- Concerning capacity building and training in ues to assume a leadership role in the global fields related to the various components of the initiatives and activities to address the concerns of WWW, it is to be noted that the Commission humanity as a prestigious, respected and exem- needs to do more in enhancing the capacities of plary Organization. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

Chapter 13 CHALLENGES TO JOINT ORGANIZATIONS AND OTHER BODIES1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)2

Statement at the twentieth session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)3

(Paris, France, 19 February 2003)

On behalf of the World Meteorological worked in a most cost-effective manner and have Organization (WMO) and on my own, I wish to been a major driving force behind the Panel’s express my thanks to Your Excellency, Mr Prime achievements. Indeed, the world community has 270 Minister, and through you to your Government, come to expect reports of the highest standard for hosting this important session of the Panel. reached in a most objective manner. Your presence demonstrates your Government’s as well as your own personal commitment to the The success of the Panel has also been due to its global efforts undertaken by the IPCC and the strict adherence to the ideals of impartiality, world community to address the challenge of transparency and scientific authority and climate change and its impacts. integrity. In this way, most of the world’s best scientists and experts working in the field of As this is the first session of the Panel following climate change have been able to assess the state the completion of its Third Assessment Report of the climate-change science and the and the election of its Chairperson, Dr Pachauri, technologies involved to meet the needs of policy and the Bureau and other members, let me makers. They have done so in such a way as to be congratulate them on their election and assure independent of policy objectives and thus avoid them of WMO’s unflinching support in the being policy prescriptive. Furthermore, the arduous tasks that lie ahead. Over the years the ownership of IPCC findings by developing and Secretariat, hosted by WMO, and the Technical developed countries has been due, to a large Support Units, hosted by the Netherlands, Japan, extent, to the deliberate efforts of the Panel to the United Kingdom, and the United States, have foster the full engagement of their scientists and

1 Editor’s Note: WMO is involved in many joint activities with other organizations, both inter-governmental and non-governmental. In a few cases this involves provision of all or part of the Secretariat, e.g. IPCC, WCRP, including meteorological-oceanographic cooperation. Over the period covered by this volume, a number of addresses were given by Professor Obasi to meetings of the these bodies, as well as several addresses to the Conference of parties to the UNFCCC, the UNCCD and the Convention on the Ozone Layer. Examples of these addresses are included in this chapter, which ends with a presentation to the world’s business community.

2 Professor Obasi addressed all Plenary Sessions of the IPCC during the period 1997 to 2003, including those chaired by Professor Bert Bolin and D. Robert Watson. In this section only the last of these addresses is included.

3 Among those present were His Excellency Mr Jean-Pierre Raffarin, Prime Minister of France; Her Excellency Ms Roselyne Bachelot-Narquin, Minister of Ecology and Sustainable Development; Dr Klaus Toepfer, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP); Dr Rajendra Pachauri, Chairperson of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); and Dr Halldor Thorgeirssen, Chairperson of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Subsidiary Body for Scentific and Technological Advice (SBSTA). Chapter 13 — Challenges to joint organizations and other bodies experts in the process. The influence of the Panel global environmental change. The challenge for since its inception 15 years ago can be gauged the Panel is therefore to build on the momentum from the impact of its first three reports. generated thus far and to ensure the continued involvement of scientists and experts from The First Assessment Report published in 1990, developed and developing countries and from only two years after its establishment by WMO different disciplines, while ensuring their and the United Nations Environmental Panel commitment and those of governments and (UNEP), had a substantial impact on stakeholders relevant organizations to work in harmony, and caught the imagination of the public, the synergistically and in a cost-effective manner to media and the non-governmental organizations. achieve the objective that has been laid down for As a result of the scientific confirmation that the Fourth Assessment Report, to be published in there was a scientific basis for climate change, 2007. In this context, I would urge the Panel to Governments building on the initiative of WMO continue to keep in view its basic working and UNEP established the Intergovernmental methods that have enabled it to remain a Negotiating Committee (INC) which led to the foremost reference on all matters related to adoption of the United Nations Framework climate change. Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992. As the Panel embarks on its next Report, it is opportune to recall that we continue to observe a The Second Assessment Report (SAR), published number of trends in the state of the global in 1996, was made available to the second session climate. WMO continues to publish these in its of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the annual statement on the State of the Global UNFCCC. It contributed to the negotiations that Climate. led to the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol one year later at COP-3. It must be stressed that the First, we observe that the global mean surface SAR was not a policy document advocating the temperature, obtained from WMO’s Global Kyoto Protocol. It was rather an assessment of Observing System, has been rising. The warmest 271 the climate change science that policy makers year in the 1860-to-present instrumental record used in their policy formulation process. occurred in 1998 with the year 2002 being the second highest. Eleven of the 13 warmest years The Third Assessment Report (TAR), published in have occurred since 1990. These conditions are 2001, comprehensively updated the assessment part of a continuing trend to warmer global of policy-relevant scientific, technical and socio- temperatures that have resulted in a rise of more economic aspects of climate change. A major than 0.6°C during the past 100 years. However, conclusion of the Report was that “most of the the rise in temperature has not been continuous. warming observed over the last 50 years is Since 1976, the global average has risen at a rate attributable to human activities”. It is possibly too approximately three times faster than the early to evaluate the full extent of the impact in century-scale trend. terms of influencing decision makers, but there can be no doubt that the major findings of the Second, we are also certain that the atmospheric TAR are already being taken into consideration by concentration of the greenhouse gas carbon policy makers and has thoroughly influenced the dioxide (CO2) has increased from 280 ppm in public and the media. 1750 to 370 ppm by the end of 2001, an increase of over 32 per cent. Today’s CO2 concentration In addition to these three reports, a number of has not been exceeded in the past 420 000 years special reports and technical papers have and not likely during the past 20 million years. supported the negotiation and assessment needs Furthermore, the rate of increase over the past of major multilateral environment agreements, century is unprecedented, at least over the past especially UNFCCC, the United Nations 20 000 years. Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), the Convention on Biological Diversity (UNCBD) Third, in recent decades, a growing number of and the Vienna Convention on the Protection of unprecedented extreme weather events such as the Ozone Layer, its Montreal Protocol and the tropical cyclones, severe floods and droughts Amendments. The flexibility shown by the Panel continue to cause considerable loss of life and should enable it to address other issues related to inflict damage to property. In recent months, Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

major storm events and floods affected many System, to ensure that a globally consistent countries across Europe including Austria, the environmental database is available to monitor Czech Republic, France and Germany; Asia climate change in all its dimensions. This also including Bangladesh, China, India and Nepal; includes taking action now to stop the ongoing, Africa including Niger, Mali and parts of Guinea; slow deterioration of the in situ meteorological and South America including southern Argentina, and hydrological networks and the wider use of Ecuador, Chile and Peru. In addition, record- meteorological, environmental and research and breaking droughts have had adverse development satellites. consequences in a number of Middle East countries, Brazil, the Horn of Africa and the area In addition, WMO is pursuing its efforts to ensure from central Asia to northern China. Southern that climate and related data are available freely Africa and the Horn of Africa are currently in the and in an unrestricted manner for research and throes of a severe drought affecting the livelihood educational purposes. It is also continuing its of about 23 million people. While these support for Global Data Centres so that historical occurrences as well as other changes observed in data are readily available to climate scientists. the ecosystem and animal life patterns are possibly manifestations of a warmer climate, the In connection with gaps in climate science, it is IPCC can only assess the available scientific to be recalled that the TAR highlighted results. In its projections of future climate, uncertainties associated with: however, there are uncertainties relating primarily to lack of data, to scientific gaps, and to (a) The physics of atmospheric process; choices to be made between strategies and (b) The chemistry of gases, liquids and solids in technologies for adaptation to climate change and the Earth-ocean-atmosphere system; and, mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. (c) The biology of the Earth’s ecosystems.

Concerning the availability of climate data, What we do understand of these processes, and 272 WMO, working through National Meteorological we do understand a great deal, was incorporated and Hydrological Services, has developed a glob- into the physico-mathematical models of the ally consistent database of meteorological and Earth-ocean-atmosphere system. These models hydrological parameters. The dataset also trace their heritage to the first numerical weather includes information on the chemical composi- prediction (NWP) systems of the 1970s. With the tion of the atmosphere, especially greenhouse availability of increasingly powerful computers gases. However, this database of observations is and improved understanding of the climate sys- patchy, with key gaps in space and time. For tem, the models are growing in sophistication as example, except for Europe and North America, they incorporate more processes. The scientific the data collected are not adequate for monitor- community will certainly continue developing ing regional climate change. Over Africa and over increasingly reliable predictions, thanks, in part, the oceans, there are large data voids. to more complete and precise meteorological, hydrological and climatological data and to a bet- At the request of the UNFCCC Subsidiary Body ter knowledge of the physical processes. As for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA), uncertainties spur further research efforts, WMO the Global Climate Observing System Secretariat will continue, through its co-sponsorship of the hosted by WMO in Geneva is preparing a Second World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), to Report on the Adequacy of Global Climate promote and coordinate research actively to Observing Systems for its consideration by the understand better the processes that are impor- next SBSTA session in June 2003. In addition, tant in climate change, and to assist in the incor- WMO is redesigning its Global Observing System. poration of this understanding into models that In partnership with various United Nations can help us anticipate future changes to the system organizations and Member Governments, Earth-atmosphere-ocean system. As the time avail- it is involved in developing ways of strengthening able to complete some of the research for the the observational networks for climate next Report is relatively short, the scientific com- monitoring. In particular, there is the need to munity should focus its efforts in key areas. In cover the oceans and terrestrial systems, this regard, WMO is working to assist in focusing especially through the Global Ocean Observing research efforts on the most significant issues. System and the Global Terrestrial Observing These include better information to mitigate the Chapter 13 — Challenges to joint organizations and other bodies impacts of severe weather events such as flash infrastructure in the developing countries. These floods, drought and tropical cyclones on vulnera- are things we need to do anyway. Climate change ble communities. We also need to better focus gives us just one more reason to act now, and research on the impact that climate change has with urgency. on key ecosystems such as forests, water supplies, the tundra and the coral reefs. In this context, it is also recalled that the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD), As we look to the future, I would like to make a held in Johannesburg, South Africa in few comments about IPCC’s work programme. August/September 2002, in its Implementation First, I am pleased to see that the Panel is giving Plan, called for action at all levels to “build and due consideration, from the very beginning, to enhance scientific and technological capabilities, the structure of the Fourth Assessment Report. I inter alia through continuing support to the IPCC am particularly heartened that it proposes to for the exchange of scientific data and make climate projection at the regional scale a information especially in developing countries”. I cross-cutting theme of this next Assessment hope that your next report will give due Report. This is essential if policy makers and the consideration to this report of WSSD. private sector, including the insurance industry, are to take appropriate decisions in long-term Finally, I note that you will consider, at this socio-economic planning and investments. It will meeting, proposals for a range of Special Reports also contribute towards convincing the national and Technical Papers. As always, IPCC is faced authorities to take the necessary measures to with many demands for assessments. I am sure contribute to the sustainable development of that at the end of your deliberations you will have their countries. In this regard, I particularly established a work programme that will draw the expect the Fourth Assessment Report to provide necessary resources from the world community a clearer picture of the impacts of climate change to enable the Panel to meet the needs of policy on the most vulnerable communities, and thus makers for relevant scientific, technical and contribute to poverty alleviation. It is to be socio-economic assessments. 273 recalled that the IPCC Third Assessment Report concluded that the least developed countries are I wish you well as you work to deal with these and generally weakest in terms of the factors other complex matters, in the overall context of necessary to adapt to climate change and are future climate change. I hope that you are able to therefore the most vulnerable. deal fully with these as well as the more traditional science, adaptation and mitigation aspects of your Second, along with climate projections at the assessments. In this regard, I would like to urge regional level, I am pleased to note that other the Panel to ensure the participation of representa- cross-cutting themes under consideration, tives of developing countries in its include: decision-making meetings as well as their involvement in its work. In addition, I would like to take (a) Different aspects related to water; this opportunity to appeal to the continued (b) Uncertainty, risk and decision-making; generosity of all governments and other sponsors (c) Key vulnerabilities and stabilisation in terms of financial and human resources. options; and (d) Integration of adaptation and mitigation. As I had mentioned at the last Panel session, the When deciding on the cross-cutting Fourteenth World Meteorological Congress, the themes, it is important to recall that the supreme body of WMO, will be invited to consider issue of water and climate is seen as a major the proposal that WMO’s contribution to the IPCC area of concern for human well-being, Trust Fund be increased during the financial peace and sustainable development. period 2004–2007. Fourteenth Congress will meet in Geneva in May 2003. I believe that Congress Third, there are uncertainties associated with will give its full support to the work of the Panel, climate change and its impacts, in terms of thus enabling us to assess and be fully aware of the assisting communities to adapt and respond to impact of our lifestyle and consumption patterns climate change. For this purpose, the appropriate on our climate. In this way, we are encouraged to course of action is to strive to build, inter alia, act responsibly to preserve the climate of the Earth greater awareness, capacity, skills and for future generations of humankind. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development Joint WMO/IOC Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM)1

Statement at the first session of the Joint WMO/IOC Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM)

(Akureyri, Iceland, 19 June 2001)

On behalf of the World Meteorological proud of and I hope that you will continue to Organization (WMO) and on my own, I should support the Commission in addressing the even like, first of all, to express my sincere appreciation greater challenges facing it in the years to come. to the Government and people of Iceland for your kind invitation to hold this historic session in As I indicated at the very beginning, this is indeed Akureyri, as well as for the excellent support and an historic occasion. Following the parallel deci- facilities that have been provided for the session. sions of the WMO Congress and IOC Assembly in The support provided by the Icelandic 1999 to establish the new Joint WMO/IOC 274 Meteorological Office under the able leadership of Technical Commission for Oceanography and its Director, Mr Magnus Jonsson, and his staff will Marine Meteorology, we are now entering a new contribute substantially to what I believe will be a era of greatly enhanced cooperation and joint most successful session. programme activities. As you may be aware, the partnership between WMO and IOC can be traced I also wish to pay tribute to the interim co-presi- to the mid-fifties when UNESCO and WMO collab- dents of the Commission, Mr Johannes Guddal, orated in the field of oceanography at the request president of the former WMO Commission for of the United Nations. The partnership took on a Marine Meteorology (CMM) and Professor Dieter new dimension with the establishment of IOC in Kohnke, chairman of the former Joint IOC/WMO 1960. Indeed, over more than fifteen years now, Committee for the Integrated Global Ocean the recognition of the inextricable linkage Services System (IGOSS) for their wise guidance, between the atmosphere and the ocean as compo- enthusiasm and valuable contributions. I under- nents of the global climate system has led to a stand that Professor Kohnke is retiring from the whole new range of joint programmes, projects Commission at the end of the session after ten and coordination mechanisms. This is promoted years of distinguished service to IGOSS and subse- through the periodic joint meetings between IOC quently to JCOMM. We wish him well in his future Officers and WMO Bureau members, as well as the endeavours. close collaboration between IOC and WMO within the context of the UN system and at regional I am also pleased to place on record WMO’s appre- levels. At the same time, enhanced mutual under- ciation to the Chairs and members of the standing, not just between our Organizations but subsidiary and reporting bodies of JCOMM, and to between meteorologists and oceanographers in all members of the Commission, for the outstand- general, has greatly facilitated the successful devel- ing work which has been accomplished during the opment and implementation of a number of joint period leading to the complex transition to the activities. In this context, it is particularly gratify- new Commission. It is something you can be ing to note that most national delegations to this

1 Concerning WCRP, see also first address in Chapter 5. Chapter 13 — Challenges to joint organizations and other bodies session comprise equal numbers of scientists from technology, ocean buoys and profiling floats. both disciplines. Potentially, these will go a long way to solving many of the problems of data availability from JCOMM represents a truly significant step forward remote ocean areas, but much work remains to in cooperation and collaboration between WMO be done if this potential is to be fully realized, for and IOC. For WMO, it is the first time that a the benefit of the whole maritime community. In constituent body has been co-sponsored by this context, then, it is clear that WMO and IOC, another Organization. Despite the small but poten- working in particular through JCOMM, have a tially tricky procedural and regulatory questions continuing and major role to play in assisting that such a co-sponsorship have posed for us, national meteorological and oceanographic agen- WMO Members nevertheless accepted JCOMM cies, especially those of the developing countries, with great enthusiasm, thereby demonstrating a in the strengthening of marine observing, com- strong belief in the necessity and value of working munications and services systems, in support of a in close partnership with IOC in dealing with very wide variety of applications. important programmes of mutual concern. As mandated by our governing bodies, the two At the same time, it is also clear that marine meteo- Secretariats are now addressing the various organi- rological observations as well as both sub-surface zational issues in running JCOMM, and I have no and upper-air soundings from Voluntary Observing doubt that our common desire to see it succeed Ships (VOS) will continue to provide a significant will lead to rapid and satisfactory solutions. component of marine observing systems for the foreseeable future. We wish to convey our appre- The primary ocean interest of WMO is, of course, ciation to the captains and crews of the VOS for in marine meteorology, physical oceanography their voluntary efforts, often in very difficult and air-sea interactions, particularly in support of circumstances, as well as to the Port marine services, operational oceanography and Meteorological Officers, who provide the vital link global climate studies. We look now to JCOMM to between meteorological and oceanographic agen- continue to expand and integrate these activities. cies and the ships’ crews. Recent scientific work 275 At the same time, the new Commission should has continued to demonstrate the enormous take into account the interdisciplinary areas potential value of VOS observations to global connecting the composition of the atmosphere climate studies. The VOS Climate Project repre- and its dynamics, ocean chemistry and biology. An sents a very significant development for the obvious example is the substantive atmospheric Commission, in providing a high-quality reference transport of pollutants into the ocean. In addition, set of VOS data and metadata, for the calibration studies related to the coastal areas, where the and validation of satellite observations, for direct ocean, atmosphere, land and human beings inter- computation of air-sea fluxes and eventually for act, clearly demand a fully integrated approach. calibration of observations from other voluntary Thus it may be that, at some time in the future, ships. As such, the project is likely to make a signif- JCOMM could also be called upon to assist in the icant contribution to both Global Climate implementation of non-physical aspects of opera- Observing System (GCOS) and the World Climate tional oceanography. If such is agreed, then WMO Research Programme (WCRP), and I therefore will, of course, do everything within its compe- urge the Commission to continue and consolidate tence to assist the Commission in this work. this activity as an operational programme.

One of the continuing major problems facing Overall, what is required is a fully integrated and meteorology and oceanography is the lack of mutually supportive approach to ocean high-quality and timely data from vast areas of the observations and ocean data management, world ocean in support of basic and extended involving both in situ and remote sensing weather forecasting, climate analysis and platforms. Indeed, one of the major driving forces research, in addition to the continuing applica- behind the creation of JCOMM was the tion to provide services in support of maritime recognition of the urgent need for such safety. At the same time, major developments — integration, in particular to support global climate in some ways almost revolutionary — have studies, which could only be achieved through a occurred in marine observing and communica- coordinated intergovernmental mechanism tion systems, in particular those which make use involving both meteorologists and of various aspects of satellite and remote sensing oceanographers. In this context, I am pleased to Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

note the proposals before the present session for ing importance of meteorological and oceano- integrating all ship-based observing systems, as graphic data and services for operations under- well as for establishing a JCOMM in situ taken to deal with such incidents. The Marine Observing Platform Support Centre. I also recall Pollution Emergency Response Support System the long-standing and highly successful work in (MPERSS), which has been undergoing trials for marine data management undertaken within the some time now, provides an excellent basis for marine climatological summaries scheme, the ensuring that appropriate meteorological and global digital sea-ice data bank and the global oceanographic advice and services are provided, temperature and salinity profile programme in on a timely basis, to those authorities responsible particular. I would therefore urge that this work for dealing directly with marine pollution emer- be fully exploited and integrated into the new gencies. It is essential that the system be JCOMM ocean data management system. strengthened worldwide and rapidly implemented operationally, so that National Meteorological Turning now to services to support marine users, and Oceanographic Services can play a full and it is clear that the requirements of the maritime essential role in managing and protecting the community for basic meteorological services in marine environment. support of the safety of life and property at sea remain as important as they ever were. At the The potential economic benefits of a wide range same time, the increasing diversity of maritime of other specialized marine meteorological and users, the complexity of their operations and the oceanographic services should be realized in considerable economic value of these operations response to increasing demand for such services have resulted in substantially increased from specific user groups, and to assist countries requirements for specialized marine in their quest for sustainable development. The meteorological and oceanographic services. As Commission must continue its work to ensure examples of such specialized requirements, those that appropriate technical and organizational of fisheries, offshore oil and gas production, as guidance, material assistance and trained person- 276 well as operations in polar waters come readily to nel are made available to Member countries, to mind. assist especially developing countries in their capacity building efforts. The extensive and suc- The International Convention for the Safety of cessful work already undertaken to provide infor- Life at Sea, the SOLAS Convention, has provided mation, guidance and support for ocean-wave the formal framework under which various analysis and forecasting is a good example of the National Meteorological Services have accepted value of such activities. I note with pleasure that responsibilities for the provision of marine the Commission already plans that the existing meteorological services in support of the safety of wave programme be extended further to include life and property on the high seas. The revision to storm- surge analysis and forecasting. SOLAS to incorporate the Global Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS), of the In addition, the type of cooperative regional pro- International Maritime Organization necessitated jects now close to implementation, jointly by a major restructuring of the way in which basic WMO and IOC, in Southeast Asia and eastern marine meteorological services in support of the Africa respectively, represent a very useful safety of life at sea are delivered. The WMO approach to national and regional development. Marine Broadcast System for the GMDSS provides The Commission should therefore consider ways at least a minimum of safety-related in which the concept might be extended to meteorological information for shipping for all other areas of the globe requiring support in ocean areas of the globe. The fact that this system expanding marine service activities. More gener- was fully implemented by the end of 1998 ally, I have noted with interest that JCOMM has represents a significant achievement, and it is already developed an overall Capacity Building now the responsibility of JCOMM to ensure that Strategy to provide a coherent framework in the system continues to function effectively in which to undertake a range of activities to the future and that it remains responsive to the ensure that all Member countries can participate requirements of all marine users. in and benefit from the work of the Commission. This is a very commendable approach, and I now The major marine pollution incidents that occur look forward to the full implementation of this almost every year serve to illustrate the continu- Strategy. Chapter 13 — Challenges to joint organizations and other bodies

You will recall, I am sure, that the United Nations cooperative projects in enhancing the capacity of Conference on Environment and Development all maritime countries to participate in the work (UNCED), which took place in Rio de Janeiro in of JCOMM. 1992, provided, through Agenda 21, a blueprint for action for the protection and proper With this in mind, I would like to raise here management of global oceans. A major follow-up another issue which requires the urgent attention conference to UNCED, the World Conference on of constituent bodies within the UN system. This Sustainable Development, will take place in concerns the need for a greater involvement of Johannesburg, South Africa, from 2 to 11 developing countries in the scientific and September 2002, to assess progress and technical work of organizations. In particular, it is achievements in implementing the decisions essential that as many Member countries as made at UNCED. There is no doubt that JCOMM possible participate in the work of JCOMM, since will have a major role to play in this work in the this Commission takes decisions and makes far- future and also in the provision of new and reaching recommendations on the future of expanded marine products and services to marine observing systems and marine services, support the protection and sustainable which affect virtually all countries in the world. I development of the marine environment. note with pleasure the arrangements you have in place to ensure appropriate interaction with the I am pleased to inform you that last week the regions in marine matters. At the same time, WMO Executive Council considered an in-depth however, we should continue to strive towards report of your co-presidents on the major universal participation in JCOMM, so that marine achievements and future work priorities of the observing systems and services continue to Commission, some of which are highlighted function in a truly global and coherent manner, above. The Council expressed its considerable for the benefit of all Member countries. In this appreciation for this report and made a point of context, the Commission should also keep in wishing the Commission a very successful first mind the need to effect balancing with regard to session and a productive intersessional period. In the officers who will be charged with the 277 doing so, it encouraged the Commission to responsibilities of guiding its affairs during the ensure that its work programme and membership intersessional period, to ensure true global represented an equitable balance between marine partnership. meteorology and oceanography and also between operations and research. The Council once more I am sure that your deliberations will be made emphasised the importance of cooperation at the and your decisions will be taken in the national level between meteorologists and cooperative spirit that has been a hallmark of oceanographers, both as individuals and through WMO and of IOC. Even as we are gathered now, their respective institutions, which was essential we bear witness to such cooperation by the very to the success of JCOMM and for which JCOMM presence here today of experts from many could also act as a catalyst. In this context, it countries, ready to discuss the various requested the Commission, if possible, to develop possibilities to arrive at a consensus on how best some guidelines to assist Member countries in to develop a more substantive contribution of developing national coordination. Finally, the marine meteorology and oceanography to socio- Council emphasised the importance of a number economic development. of specific issues, including, in particular, the phased implementation of an operational, I wish to assure you of my unqualified support to integrated ocean observing and data management JCOMM and to thank you, Your Excellency and, system for climate, in support of GOOS and through you, the Government and people of GCOS; the development of new, integrated, Iceland, for the warm welcome to all of us and marine products and services in accordance with for the provision of excellent meeting facilities expressed user requirements, as well as the and support that will ensure the success of this monitoring of user response to these products Session. I wish all delegates an enjoyable and and services; and the implementation of the fruitful stay in this beautiful and fascinating JCOMM Capacity Building Strategy, including country. new and innovative approaches to funding, as a way of successfully implementing the Strategy. It further recognized the high value of regional Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)1

Statement at the seventh session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

(Marrakesh, Morocco, 7 November 2001)

In the past, regular sessions of the Conference of (ppmv) over a period of one year, bringing the Parties were held annually, but in July of this the total amount to over 32 per cent since year, a resumed sixth session was convened in the industrialization period; Bonn to address outstanding issues related to the (b) The annual mean surface temperature has implementation of the Buenos Aires Plan of continued to remain above the 1960–1990 Action. The sense of urgency displayed by the average. The 1990s was the warmest Conference reflects the concern of the world decade and 1998 the warmest year. Most of 278 community, as the trend in greenhouse gas the warming occurred during the 20th (GHG) emissions has continued to increase century, especially over the periods 1920 unabated. We also continue to witness a growing to 1945 and 1976 to 2000. Other changes number of extreme weather and climate events, include a reduction in snow and ice cover, some of which are of unprecedented intensity. especially in non-polar mountain glaciers and a rise in the global average sea level. However, by October, only 40 countries had Coupled to these observed global-scale ratified the Kyoto Protocol, all but one coming changes are regional changes in from the developing countries. While it is hoped precipitation and the frequency of episodic that the compromise reached at the Bonn extreme weather events; Conference on various issues will most likely (c) A number of unprecedented weather facilitate the early entry into force of the extremes — such as tropical cyclones, Protocol, I would again urge the Conference of severe floods and droughts — continue to the Parties to work urgently towards reversing cause considerable loss of life and inflict the trend in the increasing greenhouse gas damage to property in many Member emissions. countries around the world; (d) Warm episodes of the El Niño/Southern The need to give urgent high-priority attention to Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon — which this issue arises from, among other things, the consistently affect regional variations of following considerations: precipitation and temperature over much of the tropics, sub-tropics and some mid- (a) The atmospheric concentration of latitude areas — have been more frequent, greenhouse gases continues to increase. persistent and intense since the mid-1970s, For example, the atmospheric carbon compared with those of the previous 100 dioxide (CO2) level had increased by years. The next El Niño phenomenon is another 1.5 parts per million by volume predicted to be weak.

1 Statements were made by Professor Obasi at the High Level segments of meetings of the Conference of Parties throughout the period covered by this volume, including the Session in Kyoto, Japan, December 1997, which produced the Kyoto Protocol. Included here is his statement to the landmark Marrakesh session in 2001. Chapter 13 — Challenges to joint organizations and other bodies

(e) It is to be recalled that in its Second As you are aware, WMO continues to provide Assessment Report in 1995, the tangible support for the implementation of the WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental Panel on Convention mainly through its own programmes Climate Change (IPCC) concluded, in what such as the World Climate Programme (WCP), has become an historic statement, that “the the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW), the World balance of evidence suggests a discernible Weather Watch (WWW) and the WMO-sponsored human influence on global climate.” In its Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). Some Third Assessment Report, issued in of the activities relate to dedicated observations September of this year, the Panel added of the climate system, advances in climate science weight to that finding in stronger terms and prediction, improvements in climate services with the statement that “there is new and for sustainable development, and studies of stronger evidence that most of the warming climate impact assessments and response observed over the last 50 years is strategies to reduce vulnerability. attributable to human activities.” On the issue of systematic observation, all Parties In the light of the above observed changes, have been requested to provide detailed reports assessments and projections, it is highly likely in accordance with the Convention reporting that short-term climatic and weather guidelines. Annex I countries report in phenomena such as those highlighted by the conjunction with their national communications, IPCC will continue to characterize the world as while non- Annex I countries report on a a result of the effects of anthropogenically- voluntary basis. On the basis of communications induced climate change. It is now clear that the submitted by the Parties and of information on current trend in the mean state of the climate operational and research observing systems from can lead to increases in the frequency of all available sources, a second Report on the extreme weather and climate events, such as Adequacy of the Global Climate Observing droughts and floods. Improving a country’s Systems will update the first report prepared in capability to observe, monitor and predict 1998. The new report will document the 279 weather and short-term climatic events, such as progress made in defining and implementing the El Niño phenomenon and year-to-year climate observing networks and systems, variations in seasonal monsoon activity, will determine the degree to which the networks help the country to cope with climate change meet with scientific requirements and conform impacts. The important task is to build with stated observing principles, and assess how resilience to natural hazards in social and well current systems and planned improvements economic structures that are sensitive to climate are meeting the needs of the Convention. In a variability and change. This is the key to further response to the decisions of the reducing vulnerability, and hence one of the Conference of the Parties, a training programme critical ways that the least developed countries to examine specific observational need in various of the world can overcome the spiral of poverty parts of the world has been undertaken. that affects so many of their citizens. As regards climate science and prediction, the Accordingly, we welcome the progress on World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), adaptation strategies at the resumed sixth session jointly sponsored by WMO, the International of the Conference of the Parties, despite the Council for Science (ICSU) and the difficulties encountered in reaching a broad- base Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of agreement with respect to mitigation of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and greenhouse gases. It is especially gratifying to Cultural Organization (UNESCO), continues to be note the actions taken by the Parties on the in the forefront of international efforts to improve implementation of the Buenos Aires Plan of our understanding of the climate system and to Action, which will facilitate concrete support to develop predictive capabilities. In particular, for many countries that may be less prepared to the Third IPCC Assessment Report, the WCRP cope with, and adapt to, the projected impacts of addressed overarching research priorities of climate change. Fundamental to this task is the interest to the Parties, namely, the assessment of need for each country to understand the nature, the nature and predictability of seasonal the current state and the future evolution of its variations of the climate system on the global and own climate. regional scales; and the detection of climate Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

change, the attribution of its causes, the to provide strong support for climate research in projection of the magnitude, and the rate of the context of the World Climate Research human-induced climate change, its regional Programme and related global change research variations and sea-level rise. The WCRP and other efforts, so as to ensure continuing significant WMO programmes provide sound scientific input progress in our understanding, simulation and for the IPCC assessments in support of the prediction of the climate system. UNFCCC, with particular emphasis on refining the expected regional effects of global climate Thirdly, developing countries and, in particular, change. the Small Island Developing States, are likely to be the most adversely affected by climate change, The improved understanding of climate issues at while also be the least able to respond and adapt. a scientific level, by and of itself, is not sufficient. Therefore, the progress made at the sixth session User communities need the scientific findings of the Conference of the Parties in establishing about the climate system, including routine funding mechanisms for capacity building predictions on a range of time- and space-scales, activities must not falter through a lack of to be presented in reliable, trusted and practical commitment from those countries that are able to ways that will allow them to apply such contribute. Furthermore, the conditions under information effectively in a wide range of social which these funds are to be made available and economic sectors. It is important, therefore, should not be so constraining as to inhibit that nations develop the capacity to produce a development of adaptation strategies and range of climate services that will complement activities that will be needed to grapple with the daily weather information and services, which are complex impacts of climate change. now taken for granted. WMO is addressing this challenge within the overall context of Fourthly, I am pleased to say that the World sustainable development. In particular, WMO’s Meteorological Organization has reiterated its Climate Information and Prediction Services strong support to the WMO/UNEP 280 (CLIPS) Project contributes to the application of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. climate knowledge and information for the While the Panel is to be congratulated in, once benefit of society in a number of areas. again, producing a comprehensive and authorita- Ultimately, the important issues relate to how tive assessment of the science, implications and climate, climate variability and change impinge mitigation of climate change, its work is far from upon the human condition in such areas as complete. Hence, I urge all Parties to continue to health, water availability, food security, energy provide the endorsement and support required generation, habitat and the environment. for the Panel to maintain its work in underpinning the implementation of the Convention. In the context of the above considerations, I wish to emphasize the following important issues: Finally, it has become clear over the past 10 years Firstly, the proposals for the implementation of that the commitments requested of countries to the decisions of the Conference of the Parties implement Agenda 21 of the United Nations relating to observing the state of the climate Conference on Environment and Development system remain critical to the success of the (UNCED) and the related environmental Convention. I would therefore urge the conventions have, in many cases, placed an Conference of the Parties to continue to support increasingly complex burden on many countries. the strengthening of all climate-related observing In order to review past successes — and programmes and systems. disappointments — and to map a way forward that will revitalize the spirit of Rio, taking into Secondly, the continuation of a strong account the United Nations Millennium Summit programme in climate research is essential for the Declaration, a World Summit on Sustainable implementation of the UNFCCC. While the Third Development is planned to be held in IPCC Assessment Report has provided a clearer Johannesburg in September 2002. I therefore and more definitive set of observed changes urge the Parties and Governments in general to within the climate system, many uncertainties consider carefully how the existing remain about the rate and geographical environmental agreements could be strengthened distribution of expected future changes. It is to improve the overall effectiveness of the United essential, therefore, that the Conference continue Nations system and its partners in tackling the Chapter 13 — Challenges to joint organizations and other bodies many complex environmental challenges facing of the Parties and the implementation of their the world and humankind. decisions relevant to the Organization.

I wish to assure you that WMO will maintain its I hope that this seventh session of the Conference commitment to improving our understanding of of the Parties will stand as a further landmark the climate system and the prediction of its future event in the preservation of the Earth’s climate state. WMO will also continue to support the and environment for the generations that will work of the Subsidiary Bodies of the Conference follow us.

Conference of the Parties to the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD)

Statement at the fifth session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD)

(Geneva, Switzerland, 8 October 2001) 281

I would like to express my sincere thanks, and parts of the world. Preserving dryland ecosystem those of the World Meteorological Organization productivity and ensuring that those who live on it (WMO) to Mr Arba Diallo, Executive Secretary of have access to safe drinking water are major chal- the Convention, for his kind invitation and for the lenges which call for increased global efforts in the opportunity to address this august gathering. Let implementation of national action programmes to me also convey my warmest regards to Dr Z. combat desertification and drought, and in the Batjargal, the immediate past President of the promotion of sustainable development of drylands. Conference of the Parties, who is also the Permanent Representative of Mongolia with This fifth session will review the implementation WMO, for his outstanding leadership during the of the Convention and its institutional intersessional period. arrangements, including the progress made by the affected country Parties in the implementation of To date, the number of country Parties to the the Convention. In particular, the session will Convention has increased from 112 at the time of review information regarding the financing of the the first session to 174, reflecting the growing implementation of the Convention, examine importance assigned by governments to combat- activities for the promotion and strengthening of ing the global phenomena of desertification and the relationship with other relevant conventions drought, and to supporting the Convention as the and look into ways of improving the efficiency most appropriate international mechanism to and the effectiveness of the Committee on address these phenomena. Indeed, desertification Science and Technology (CST). In considering and drought seriously threaten the livelihoods of these issues, the Conference will have to take over 1.2 billion people worldwide, who depend into account the weather and climate of the on the land for most of their needs. Desertification regions concerned, the related extreme events as has its greatest impact in Africa, where some two- well as the recent findings of the WMO/UNEP thirds of the continent is covered by desert and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change drylands and where there are frequent and severe (IPCC) which have special significance for the droughts. Similar effects are observed in other Convention. These include: Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

• The continued increase in global mean participation in the collection and use of annual surface temperature. Indeed, the year these observations to meet their 2000 was the twenty-second consecutive commitments to the Convention. In this year with a global mean surface temperature regard, I would like to draw your attention above the 1961–1991 normal and was the to the Decisions of the Conference of the seventh warmest year in the past 140 years, Parties of the United Nations Framework despite the persistent cooling influence of Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) the La Niña event; which address the issue of climate • The devastation and potential for observing systems, and the regional desertification resulting from drought in workshop programme that has been many parts of the world. Major areas affected developed and is being implemented in include much of the Middle East, the area different parts of the world by the Global through Central Asia to northern China, Climate Observing System (GCOS) Brazil and the Horn of Africa. For example, Secretariat co-sponsored by WMO; the drought in China this year is the second (b) Promoting the mitigation of the effects of most widespread since 1949, surpassed only drought and desertification through by the 1978 dry spell. It has affected 73 effective early warning systems, which also million hectares of farmland. In Africa, over serve as an essential and important alert 23 million people are at risk of famine as a mechanism for international relief consequence of the continuing drought in measures. WMO continues to play an active the Horn of Africa, and in some parts of role in the activities of the ad hoc Panel on eastern and southern Africa; and early warning systems established by the • The extensive damage arising from wildfires CST. High on the agenda of the Panel is the due to warm and dry conditions in various need to undertake a critical analysis of the parts of the globe. Recently, wildfires caused performance of early warning, monitoring serious losses in Bulgaria, Greece and the and assessment systems; the improvement 282 United States. of methods for and approaches to the prediction of drought and monitoring of As you are aware, a number of measures are desertification; and the development of being taken by WMO to address these weather- mechanisms to facilitate an exchange of and climate-related issues and to meet the information focusing in particular on requirements of the Convention. Some of these national and subregional networks. In the relate to the dedicated observations of the context of early warning, I would urge the climate system, improvements in the application CST to establish the necessary and effective of agrometeorological methods and the proper coordination mechanism with the assessment and management of water resources, International Strategy for Disaster advances in climate science and prediction, and Reduction (ISDR) which also has a Working promotion of capacity building in the application Group on Early Warning; of meteorological and hydrological data and (c) Further enhancing climate prediction information in drought preparedness and capability through the Climate Variability management. In this context, WMO will continue (CLIVAR) project of the World Climate to address the issues of drought and Research Programme (WCRP). The desertification through its Agricultural prediction of El Niño and its associated Meteorology Programme, Hydrology and Water impacts are becoming possible, with Resources Programme, and other scientific and reasonable skill, up to a few seasons in technical programmes by: advance. Related to this, WMO is broadening the implementation of the (a) Advocating enhanced observing systems at WMO Climate Information and Prediction national, regional and international levels. Services (CLIPS) project, which is designed WMO is committed to working with the to promote the use of climate information Parties to the Convention to improve the and prediction services, capacity building, observing systems for weather, climate and multi-disciplinary research and the water resources in order to meet the needs development of new applications. of the Convention, and to assisting Consensus long-range forecasts on developing countries to strengthen their droughts, which were issued at several Chapter 13 — Challenges to joint organizations and other bodies

Regional Climate Outlook Fora organized in Action Programmes (NAPs) to combat different parts of the world with active desertification and mitigate the effects of drought support from WMO, provide good early into national development strategies and other warning information to national relevant policy frameworks. By March of this authorities.; year, over 30 National Action Programmes had (d) Contributing actively to the been elaborated and adopted. Furthermore, implementation of the UN system’s during the Ad Hoc Working Group (AHWG) International Strategy for Disaster meeting held in Bonn in April 2001, 114 national Reduction (ISDR). It is to be noted that and subregional reports elaborated by society’s ability to cope with and adapt to governments, subregional and regional climate change will depend heavily on its organizations since 1999 were reviewed. While ability to assess how and where weather appreciating this progress, it is noted that most of and climate patterns are likely to change, to these national reports did not make adequate predict the continuous fluctuations in risk reference to the scientific and technical work of and vulnerability to communities, and to the Committee on Science and Technology and, develop adaptive strategies that will in particular, to issues relating to traditional increase the community’s resilience when knowledge and early warning systems. the next potential disaster strikes. WMO leads the ISDR Working Group on Climate Monitoring and assessment for desertification and and Disasters; early warning for drought prediction and assess- (e) Supporting the strengthening of the ment are fundamentally interrelated. Over the past capabilities of the Parties and regional years, the CST has identified some of the key issues institutions with drought-related to be addressed to enhance our understanding of programmes and promote collaboration the complexity of issues relating to drought and with other institutions in drought- and desertification. These include the launch of a desertification-prone regions, with an common plan of action that could help all coun- emphasis on Africa, Asia, Latin America and tries facing drought and desertification, especially 283 the Caribbean, and the northern those that are already being affected. I note with Mediterranean region, which are all appreciation that the CST, at its fifth session, referred to in the Regional Annexes to the intends to make a proposal on how to revise the Convention. Examples of such institutions UNCCD National Reports Help Guide and under- in Africa are the AGRHYMET Centre and take an in-depth review of the strategies for the African Centre of Meteorological communication and information to generate best Applications for Development (ACMAD), practices for combating desertification and mitigat- both located in Niamey, Niger, and the ing the effects of drought. I am sure that this will WMO Drought Monitoring Centres (DMCs) further contribute to the implementation of the for eastern and southern Africa located in Convention. Kenya and Zimbabwe, respectively. In order to enhance capacity- building in the An important issue is the increasing concern development of National Action Plans regarding the lack of adequate financial support to within the framework of the Convention, ensure that developing countries meet their WMO, in collaboration with FAO, commitments in a timely and effective manner. I organized a Roving Seminar on the am therefore pleased to note that this matter will Application of Climatic Data for be considered in depth by this Conference, taking Desertification Control, Drought into account the possibility of the Global Preparedness and Management of Environment Facility as one of the funding mecha- Sustainable Agriculture in Beijing, China, in nisms in addition to bilateral and other sources. May 2001. The Convention is now moving forward and the In addition to efforts of organizations such as momentum should be maintained. The time has WMO, it is indeed pleasing to note the growing arrived for tangible actions to be taken to assist awareness and contribution of the Parties toward the most affected countries to cope with the achieving the goals of the Convention. In problems of drought and desertification. In this particular, there is now growing recognition of regard, it is recalled that the UN Millennium the need to fully integrate the countries’ National Summit held last year had called for full Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

implementation of the CCD and had reaffirmed considerations, but also on sound scientific and its support to the principles of sustainable technical knowledge. In this regard, I would urge development including those set out in Agenda the Parties to exploit fully the considerable 21 of the United Nations Conference on expertise of WMO, particularly in early warnings Environment and Development (UNCED). In in agricultural meteorology, in climate research particular, the Agenda 21 Chapter on combating and in climate aspects of drought mitigation and desertification and drought will be reviewed at desertification control, as well as the advice and the forthcoming World Summit on Sustainable guidance being provided by the Committee on Development to be held in South Africa in Science and Technology. September 2002. Fourthly, there is a need to strengthen In the light of the above, as you deliberate on the mechanisms for cooperation between the CCD many challenges facing the Convention, I would and the Conventions on Climate Change invite you to give special attention to the (UNFCCC) and Biodiversity (UNCBD), as well as following: First, the improvement of systematic with the WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental Panel observations, as described under Article 16, on Climate Change (IPCC). This will enable the should be a cornerstone of the CCD CCD to benefit from the experience and synergy implementation strategy. A concerted effort of the related Conventions. In particular, I would should be made to implement fully the Decisions encourage the Parties to the CCD to make the of the Conference of the Parties to the United best use of the relevant information available in Nations Framework Convention on Climate the IPCC reports, especially the latest Third Change regarding the strengthening of systematic Assessment Report that was issued very recently. meteorological — including climatological and hydrological — data collection and exchange, as Finally, adequate financial resources is a key well as other relevant decisions, for the benefit of prerequisite for the timely and successful all Parties to the related Conventions. This will implementation of the Convention. Mobilizing 284 also foster closer and mutually beneficial the required resources to combat drought and cooperation among the Conventions. I believe desertification remains a significant hurdle for the that this issue would continue to be one of the developing countries. As drought and first priority matters for the Parties to this desertification have implications for the Convention to address. sustainable development of all nations, I would particularly urge those with greater technical and Secondly, the enhancement of national financial resources to assist in providing the capabilities for the development of effective early necessary resources. I therefore support the warning systems in their National Action efforts being made to establish a reliable financial Programmes (NAPs) and the application of mechanism to help these countries implement relevant scientific and technical know-how, along the Convention in a comprehensive and efficient with traditional knowledge, are essential to the manner and to enable them to attend the Convention. In addition to an improved meetings of the Conference of the Parties. systematic observing system, further strengthening of the system for the collection, In conclusion, I wish to assure you of WMO’s exchange and analysis of meteorological — continuing commitment to support the work of including climatological and hydrological — data the Secretariat of the CCD and to the implementa- and information, as also enshrined in article 16 of tion of the Convention. I wish this Session every the Convention, would be required. success in ensuring global commitment to the implementation of the Convention as an invest- Thirdly, the successful implementation of the ment in sustainable development and in the future UNCCD must be based not only on political well-being of humanity. Chapter 13 — Challenges to joint organizations and other bodies Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer

Statement at the opening plenary of the Ninth Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer

(Montreal, Canada, 15 September 1997)

It is a pleasure for me to address you at the The immediate question that comes to mind is opening of the Ninth Meeting of the Parties to the “What is the current state of the ozone layer as Montreal Protocol. I would like to express my we celebrate this 10th anniversary of the appreciation and that of the World Montreal Protocol?” Meteorological Organization (WMO) to the Government and people of Canada for hosting The unhappy news is that we have further disqui- this important session. It is most fitting that the eting reports that during this year the overall tenth anniversary of the Montreal Protocol is global ozone content has continued to decline as a being held in the very city which gave it its name. result of the chemical reactions triggered by the This is a further tribute to the leading role that by-products of human-produced chlorofluorocar- 285 Canada has played over the years in the bons (CFCs) and halon gases. We recall that over monitoring of the protective ozone layer and in the last 25 years, the total ozone global decline has the development and implementation of the been about 6 to 7 per cent compared to the 1950s’ Vienna Convention and the Montreal Protocol. and 1960s’ values, with far higher declines over The hosting of the session here is a clear the middle and polar latitudes. Antarctic Ozone demonstration of your Government’s continuing Bulletins issued by WMO usually every 10 days strong commitment to the protection of Planet show that during the past 30 days at the beginning Earth for the benefit of humanity. I also wish to of this year’s Antarctic ozone decline, more than express my appreciation to Ms E. Dowdeswell, 30 per cent of the stratospheric ozone over the the Executive Director of UNEP, for her kind southern polar region has been destroyed. In fact, invitation to address the meeting. It is an added near complete annihilation of the stratospheric pleasure for me to have the opportunity to make ozone between 15 and 21 km has occurred during this address in this most beautiful city of Montreal a few consecutive weeks in September and where, at the prestigious McGill University, I October in each of the past five Antarctic-spring received my first university degree. seasons. Furthermore, in the northern hemisphere mid- and higher latitude, the total stratospheric As we celebrate the 10th anniversary of the first ozone has also shown an unprecedented strong global risk-management treaty concluded under decline of 15 to 30 per cent during the past six the United Nations umbrella, we are aware that spring seasons over large regions in Europe, North the nations of the world have collectively agreed America and Siberia. to stop the production and/or to curb emissions of ozone-depleting substances based on scientific At the same time, tropospheric ozone information about the status of the protective concentrations — that is, from the surface to ozone layer. This occasion should therefore be about 12 km — in large regions of the northern used to assess the effectiveness of the actions hemisphere middle latitudes, have increased by taken so far and what further measures need to more than 1 per cent per year, partly due to be taken in order to satisfactorily progress increases of exhaust gases in the combustion towards the set objectives of the Parties. process, while the concentrations in the southern Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

tropics have increased due to seasonal our understanding of ozone-depletion processes, occurrences of forest and bush fires. In addition uncertainties remain over ozone loss at middle to the negative effects on health, the increases in and high latitudes as well as the sources and sinks lower tropospheric ozone contribute of some ozone-depleting substances, notably substantially to the greenhouse gas warming of methyl bromide. the global atmosphere. The world-wide concern about the depletion of Although not unexpected but of major concern is the stratospheric ozone layer continues in spite that the rate of global ozone decline has of the success under the Montreal Protocol. What significantly increased in the period 1981–1991 should therefore be done collectively to improve compared to the period 1970–1980. our understanding and further arrest the depletion of the Ozone Layer? You may therefore ask, how are the ozone data acquired? The World Meteorological First of all, there is the continuing need to Organization’s Global Atmosphere Watch, with strengthen the Montreal Protocol and its more than 160 land-based stations and a number Amendments. This need was recently stressed by of satellites, continues to provide the only data the Special Session of the United Nations General sets for the determination of the long-term ozone Assembly, which was convened in June this year trends. Based on these data, WMO has been to review and appraise the implementation of the providing the corresponding authoritative scien- United Nations Conference on Environment and tific information, advice and assessments on the Development (UNCED), its Agenda 21 and related past, present and future state and behaviour of the conventions. The General Assembly also called ozone layer. The information has served as back- for the ratification of the Copenhagen ground material for measures taken in the context Amendment to the Protocol. of the Montreal Protocol and its Amendments adopted in London in 1990 and in Copenhagen in Secondly, I consider it essential that, in order to 286 1992. It is to be recalled that WMO issued the first further address the ozone-related issues, we authoritative scientific statement in 1975 entitled should, among other things: “Modification of the ozone layer due to human activities and some probable geophysical conse- • Continue to improve our capabilities in quences”. That statement signalled the first monitoring ozone concentration and international warning of the danger for a substan- distribution, and that of the ozone-depleting tial ozone decrease due to CFCs and the need for gases in the atmosphere; international action to address the issue. • Intensify the investigation and quantification of stratospheric and tropospheric processes, What are the current scientific results from through routine monitoring and modelling stratospheric ozone layer experimental work; behaviour? • Give high-priority attention to research related to the interaction between ozone and There has been considerable progress in our climate and the impact of aircraft emissions; understanding of stratospheric processes in the • Ensure progress for coordinated and last four to five years, and our ability to simulate compatible UV-B radiation measurements and predict ozone changes has improved with and their analysis and archiving; and, the introduction of interactive dynamic chemistry • Keep the decision makers and the general computer models. In this regard, the high level of public informed. chlorine loading of the stratosphere, which is expected to reach a maximum at the turn of the Thirdly, it should be recognized that only through century, could lead to more serious ozone increased information, especially in the data-sparse depletion over the next decade. Thereafter, the tropical belt, can we truly evaluate the ozone situa- rate of ozone decline may stabilize and slowly tion with precision and proceed to assess the diminish as a result of actions taken under the effectiveness of the Montreal Protocol and its Montreal Protocol and its Amendments. The requested actions, as well as provide appropriate models project that the ozone hole phenomenon advice to governments. Unfortunately, the neces- will probably disappear only in the second half of sary financial support needed to improve our next century. However, in spite of advances in capability in ozone monitoring, especially in many Chapter 13 — Challenges to joint organizations and other bodies developing countries and countries with measures which you may agree to, in order to economies in transition, has not been adequate. I reduce uncertainties, improve prediction, and would therefore appeal to you to facilitate your monitor the results of the implementation of a Governments’ contributions in this area, particu- strengthened Montreal Protocol. For our part, I larly to the WMO Special Fund for Climate and wish to assure you that WMO will continue to Atmospheric Environment Studies, part of which work, in close cooperation with UNEP, to give is used for improving ozone data gathering, cali- the necessary scientific support to the bration of ozone equipment in the network, requirements of the Vienna Convention, the re-evaluation of available records, initiation of Montreal Protocol and its amendments. global ultraviolet (UV-B) radiation monitoring and expanding tropospheric ozone measurements. Finally, I wish your Meeting the success it deserves in the very important tasks of finding I would like to point out that ozone monitoring ways and means to save the protective ozone and research must go hand in hand with the wise layer of our planet.

Business organizations1

Statement on the occasion of the General Assembly Meeting of the Association of Hydrometeorological Equipment Industry 287

(Long Beach, California, USA, 11 February 2003)

I am very pleased to be here today to address the cooperation with instrument manufacturers and first meeting of the General Assembly of the those engaged in meteorological equipment and Association of Hydro- Meteorological Equipment services on several occasions such as the Industry (HMEI) after its formal establishment in American Meteorological Society (AMS) September 2001. The legal instruments were Conferences, sessions of the Commission for deposited in accordance with the Swiss Civil Instruments and Methods of Observation (CIMO) Code at the beginning of 2002. I wish to recall and at related technical conferences. The briefly some of the milestones of the recent Thirteenth World Meteorological Congress, in history of a long-standing aspiration for enhanced 1999, appreciated our mutual collaboration and collaboration between the World Meteorological concluded that much of our objectives would be Organization (WMO) and the instrument and achieved through the work of the Commission equipment manufacturers. for Instruments and Methods of Observation.

It has always been part of my vision as Secretary- I am now pleased that following the positive General of WMO to have improved collaboration outcome of the informal meetings during with instrument and equipment manufacturers, TECO/METEOREX-2000, in Beijing in October since we both have a common interest, namely 2000, and the 81st Conference of the AMS in the enhancement of global monitoring capacities, Albuquerque, in January 2001, it became possible which will result in the development of — and to establish the Hydro-Meteorological Equipment progress in — meteorology. Since as far back as Industry Association during the Conference of the the late 1980s, I have had discussions about such European Meteorological Society on

1 See also second address in Chapter 3 Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

26 September 2001, in Budapest, Hungary. The I would also like to bring to your attention some establishment of the Association and deposition important outcomes of the thirteenth session of of the legal instruments was a culmination of our CIMO and outline some concrete areas for further efforts. collaboration between WMO and the Association of HMEI. Subsequently, the Association of HMEI requested the fifty-fourth session of the Executive Council CIMO-XIII discussed options for working more (2002) to grant it consultative status with WMO. effectively in the future and concluded that the The Council recognized the mutual benefit and most effective, flexible and responsive means of authorized the Secretary-General to inform the carrying out CIMO tasks would be to have a Association accordingly. This consultative status system of Expert Teams, complemented by accords the Association of HMEI the following: suitable ways of informing and involving all CIMO members and representatives of your Association. (a) Entitlement to representation by an The Commission agreed that its activities and observer without voting rights at sessions teams should be grouped together and handled of the World Meteorological Organization by three Open Programme Area Groups (OPAGs), Congress; namely: (b) The possibility of being invited by the Secretary-General, after consultation with (a) OPAG on Surface Observation Technology; the president of the constituent body (b) OPAG on Upper-air Observation concerned, to sessions of regional Technology; associations or the technical commissions (c) OPAG on Capacity Building. in which it has an interest; (c) Entitlement to present, at these meetings, The OPAGs on Surface and Upper-air Observation documents on the meeting’s agenda items Technology, based on user requirements, which are of particular interest to it; evaluate appropriate instrumentation in varying 288 (d) Entitlement to propose agenda items for environments, recommend observing methods the meeting to which it has been invited; and provide information on new technologies and and systems for measurement of surface and (e) Entitlement for its observer to speak on the upper-air meteorological variables. The OPAG on items concerning it, at the sessions of the Capacity Building addresses aspects of capacity associations or commissions, with the prior building activities and coordinates the consent of the presidents of those bodies, development and update of guidelines and and at Congress with the prior consent of publications. There is no doubt that the the Bureau of Congress. involvement of the private instrument sector in the work of the OPAGs is desirable and could I am pleased that the Association of HMEI was facilitate the development of observing already represented by an observer at the equipment, systems and methods that best suit thirteenth session of the Commission for the needs of the user community. Instruments and Methods of Observation in Bratislava, in 2002. As you may already know, The CIMO has also defined concrete tasks and the Fourteenth World Meteorological Congress deliverables for each of the three OPAGs. I wish will be held in May this year and I wish to to recall that I have already written to the encourage the Association to send its Association of HMEI to consider nominations of representative to participate in the Congress its experts who would be interested in working session. actively within the new working structure of CIMO and its expert teams. I wish to express my profound satisfaction that the joint coordination efforts have come to a very Meteorological and hydrological instruments are positive conclusion, which opens a new very important elements within several dimension for collaboration between the private programmes of WMO. In addition to the well- instrument sector and WMO. As I mentioned known Global Observing System of the World earlier, WMO would be happy to make office Weather Watch, and the Global Climate space available for the Association at WMO Observing System, many new fields and Headquarters in Geneva. applications for instruments have emerged in Chapter 13 — Challenges to joint organizations and other bodies recent years. I would just like to mention a few (i) Coordination and protection of radio examples: urban meteorology, air chemistry frequencies for ground-based observing studies, air quality monitoring, oceanographic systems; monitoring programmes, long-term measurement (j) Organization of technical conferences, campaigns in the polar regions, and monitoring training seminars and similar events; and environmental parameters in connection with the (k) Development of specific proposals to assist storage of goods and industrial production developing countries to reduce the cost of processes. The long-term accuracy and stability of instrument operation. measurements for climatological studies is another important aspect. I wish to stress the role of the Association of HMEI in facilitating the close collaboration of I wish to invite the Association of HMEI and its individual companies and their experts with members to consider working closely with WMO, WMO in the joint work alongside the above areas especially in the following areas: to the benefit of all parties involved and, more importantly, to the benefit of the user (a) Guidance on the implementation of community. instruments and systems in varying environmental conditions; WMO is at the forefront in developing and setting (b) Improvement of the quality and reliability standards and defining methods of observations of modern instruments and monitoring in all these application areas. I truly believe that systems; close cooperation between WMO and the (c) Development of low-cost, good-quality Association of HMEI will be beneficial for both meteorological and hydrological observing communities. Not only will you learn early of systems that are robust enough to operate WMO plans and intentions, but WMO will also in harsh environments in developing benefit from the views and advice the industry countries and in the polar regions; has to offer. It is very important, for instance, that (d) Establishment of fabrication facilities for WMO experts be made aware of potential 289 conventional instruments in developing engineering or cost implications that a newly countries; conceived observing method might have on (e) Development of and recommendations on instrumentation. methods for automated visual and subjective observations; As you may already know, WMO will also (f) Technical recommendations for standards organize an exhibition related to meteorological and practices for urban and road and hydrological instruments and equipment meteorological measurements as well as METEOHYDEX-2003 conjointly with the quality assurance and quality management; Fourteenth World Meteorological Congress. This (g) Development of data processing algorithms will, again, be an ideal opportunity for many for radiosondes, automatic weather stations instrument manufacturers and for the members of and long-wave radiation measurements; the Association of HMEI to present their latest (h) Organization and evaluation of various products and I would like to take this opportunity instrument intercomparisons; to invite you all to participate in the event. Chapter 14 FUTURE OF WMO AND NMHSs1

Future of WMO within the United Nations system

(Casablanca, Morocco, 21 November 1996)

Future issues — global context where in excess of 800 million people are chronically undernourished, a large part being children In light of its past experience, WMO should be who are the very future of the human race. Over prepared to take advantage of opportunities that 80 countries are currently placed in the category might arise not only from scientific and of low-income food-deficit countries. At least half technological developments but also from of these are in Sub-Saharan Africa, with the rest in relevant social, economic and political ones. It is, Asia and the Pacific, eastern Europe, Latin America therefore, important to consider some of the key and the Caribbean and North Africa. Projections factors, in the global context, that will influence show that unless intensive and sustained remedial the effective functioning of WMO and National actions are undertaken over the long term, there Meteorological and Hydrological Service (NMHS) could still be almost 700 million chronically under- in the next few decades. nourished by the year 2010, with over 300 million in Sub-Saharan Africa alone. 290 World population Global changes The world’s population is expected to increase from the current 5.7 billion to 8.4 billion by the Human activities are continuing to release year 2030 and to about 10 billion in 2050. About greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. According 90 per cent of the global increase will be in cities to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate in developing countries. In developed countries, Change (IPCC), if the current trend continues, a there will be a larger aged population because of global mean temperature rise of about 1 to 3°C better leisure and health facilities. The increase in and sea-level rise of 15 to 95 cm are predicted by energy demand and use would, in the absence of the year 2100. The depletion of stratospheric appropriate action to prevent it, lead to major ozone is expected to continue into the middle of problems of urban, regional and global air the next century. The awareness of the pollution and increased demands for natural relationships that exist between human activities resources. There will be increasing demand for and the environment, including the ecosystems, water for drinking and sanitation, for industry, are giving rise to new demands that could only be agriculture and many other purposes. Enormous met through study of close interaction between pressures will be placed on available cropland. the components of the global climate system.

Food security Natural disasters

Hunger and malnutrition occur to a certain extent Natural hazards such as recurrent droughts, floods in virtually every country of the world, but the and tropical cyclones are meteorological and major problem lies in the developing countries hydrological in character and account for more

1 Editor’s Note: Professor Obasi addressed the future of WMO on a number of occasions and there are discussions on this in many of the proceeding chapters. In this chapter a few excerpts are included from addresses which give a broad perspective on the bright and important future of WMO and NMHSs. It is interesting to compare the perspective from 1996 in the first address in this chapter to the view from 2002, in the last. Chapter 14 — Future of WMO and NMHSs than 70 per cent of all events. Other disasters arise such as the Global Climate Observing System from volcanoes and earthquakes. While major (GCOS), the Global Ocean Observing System strides have been made in the warning capabilities (GOOS), the Global Terrestrial Observing System on these hazards, the economic losses continue to (GTOS) and the International Council for Science escalate. There would, therefore, be the need to (ICSU) Geosphere Biosphere Programme. These consolidate the achievements of the International initiatives illustrate the interdisciplinary nature of Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction beyond the earth system sciences and should be further devel- 1990-1999 decade. oped in support of climate and global change.

The last decade has also witnessed a dramatic increase in the number of accidents or pollution Technological advances episodes, involving toxic chemicals and radioactive substances with adverse national and The advances in technology, including the transboundary effects, which may continue to computer, communications capability and space- occur in the future. Monitoring and assessment based remote sensing, will not only increase the capabilities are still inadequate. amount of information that can be exchanged but also induce the further reshaping of both national and international organizations. In particular, there Regional, political and economic will be increased pressure on the UN system to communities focus on specific areas where global cooperation is mandatory. The world economic situation will Regional groupings in Africa, such as the further force the UN system to avoid duplication. Organization of African Unity (OAU), the WMO, which has a comparative advantage in oper- Permanent Inter-State Committee on Drought ating a rather efficient system of monitoring, Control in the Sahel (CILSS), the Economic processing and exchange of products through the Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the NMHSs, could benefit by taking timely initiatives Intergovernmental Authority on Development in shorter and longer terms, to address some of 291 (IGAD) and the Maghreb Union and the Southern these concerns. African Development Community (SADC), will continue to assume a more important role at regional and subregional levels, as will the multi- Short-term actions national private sector, especially in developing countries. Secretariat-level actions

The enhancement of the programmes of the Future exchange of meteorological Organization requires continued improvement in data and products the efficiency and effectiveness of the Secretariat, while operating strictly within limited resources The commitment of Members to the decisions of and staff ceiling. Having this in mind, Coopers and Twelfth Congress of WMO (Resolution 40 Lybrand (C&L), a management consulting firm, (Cg-XII), adopted in 1995) on the future exchange was appointed to prepare a management and orga- of meteorological data and products will serve as a nization study of the WMO Secretariat in February blueprint for international collaboration in meteo- 1993. The study came out with useful recommen- rology in the years to come. At this initial stage, dations which began to be implemented in 1994. Members should abide by the spirit and the letter of the Resolution. Furthermore, the increasing Monitoring the operational performance of the demand for specialized meteorological and hydro- World Weather Watch (WWW) and the Global logical products will encourage the growth of Atmosphere Watch (GAW) systems is an existing private sector interest in these fields. responsibility of the WMO Secretariat, which leads to periodic assessment of the level of performance. Additionally, the Secretariat will Continue, Interdisciplinary earth sciences among other things, to:

The concern for climate and global change • Support NMHSs in the development of their resulted in the development of new initiatives services and implementation of WMO Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

programmes and activities and in taking new optimum cost effectiveness. A Task Team has initiatives (supportive actions on relevant been established to carry out this study. Its report initiatives at regional and global levels either will be submitted to Thirteenth Congress in 1999. by the UN system or those initiated by other In the short term, WMO constituent bodies may: intergovernmental and non-governmental organizations would be pursued); (a) Review the operations of WMO Centres • Contribute, as Task Manager to the (World Meteorological Centre (WMCs), Commission on Sustainable Development to Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre the promotion of sectoral issues such as the (RSMCs), Regional Meteorological Training “Atmosphere”, “Freshwater” and “Oceans Centres (RMTCs), etc.) in the light of the and Seas” and assist Members in preparing expansion of programmes and activities,as and implementing projects in these areas; well as in the light of the increase in • Undertake a review of WMO’s action on the membership to the Organization; and UN Conference on Environment and (b) Propose ways and means of ensuring the Development (UNCED) follow-up in adequate and active involvement of preparation for the 1997 UN Special General experts, especially those from developing Assembly session, which will consider the countries, in the work of Technical report on the global assessment of Commissions and other WMO constituent freshwater resources; bodies. • Follow up relevant actions on recent UN Conferences such as the IDNDR Yokohama Conference, Habitat-II, and on regional Long-term actions conferences such as the African as well as the Latin American and Caribbean Technological advances Conferences on Water Resources; • Enhance resource mobilization to support Computer and telecommunications 292 the activities of NMHSs following the harmonization of the activities of the Technological advances, especially the new Technical Cooperation Department and computer and telecommunication revolution, can Regional Offices (additional means for new be used to further develop the World Weather resources will be explored to support the Watch and related meteorological and broadened role of WMO; already certain hydrological systems. The advances will result in initiatives such as the establishment of a increasing competition from the private sector. resource mobilization unit within the WMO The challenge may even be greater in the light of Secretariat and the launching of the New Sun the new development related to INTERNET. One Foundation have been realized and benefits may thus enquire, how well are WMO and are beginning to accrue); NMHSs preparing themselves for this challenge? • Carry out further assessment of the Another question which comes to mind is economic benefits of meteorological and whether and how the meteorological and hydrological services and create better hydrological professions, as well as organizations appreciation of the services rendered; related to these fields, will acquire the required • Undertake measures to improve the image of flexibility for adapting to changing circumstances Meteorological and Hydrological Services as and to unpredictable situations. well as that of WMO, among the public and decision makers. The WMO power base: the World Weather Watch System

Actions by WMO constituent One unchallenged strength of the international bodies meteorological system and WMO is its ability to achieve, through cooperation of its Members, a Twelfth Congress considered the overall daily worldwide exchange of data and products structure of WMO, including its constituent in real time. It would appear logical that WMO bodies, and requested that a study be undertaken should continue to strive to make use of this tool with a view to streamlining and rationalizing the to further develop and strengthen this structure of the Organization so as to achieve cooperation. Chapter 14 — Future of WMO and NMHSs

WMO should continue to offer access to its expenditures of resources and will be driven by WWW system whenever the opportunity arises industrial policy factors beyond the scope of and, if the situation permits, to serve the needs of meteorology and hydrology. The Organization other disciplines or activities (e.g. seismic or should therefore effectively formulate future tsunami warnings, global oceanic tide and surge requirements for meteorological, hydrological warnings, global sea-state predictions, landslide and environmental observations to influence long- warnings and monitoring, atmosphere and ocean term development of these programmes. pollution mapping and transport prediction, etc.). Such a policy is a strong argument in favour of strengthening global WMO programmes in the Widening the scientific scope of WMO future. Support for sustainable development requires Another aspect is that WMO has been enhanced contact with an increasing range of increasingly seen as a suitable executing agency scientific or engineering disciplines, for coordination or even “management” of encompassing oceanography, chemistry, biology, special bodies for specific observing systems geology, agriculture and forestry, space research which contribute to WWW, i.e. the Aircraft to and aerospace techniques, even astrophysics. Satellite Data Relay Package (ASDAR), the These are fields of endeavour which generally Automated Shipboard Aerological Programme extend beyond the traditional scope of WMO and (ASAP), the North Atlantic Ocean Stations the National Meteorological and Hydrological (NAOS), Drifting Buoys, etc. This leads the Services. WMO Secretariat into a more active and functional role than that of serving as only a The problem is how to arrange liaisons with the “Secretariat”. The Organization should develop scientific communities involved in these fields appropriate guidelines and policies that may and achieve a truly effective cooperation with so strengthen its capability to support such many agencies and institutions outside the direct activities. It is essential to integrate the widely influence of WMO’s Permanent Representatives 293 disparate technological levels of Members into or their Hydrological Advisors. The practical an effective global and regional WWW system as question is: what can the Organization offer to outlined in WMO Long-term Plans. This should encourage these institutions to cooperate more permit delivery of at least a minimum level of with WMO in these fields? One answer lies in meteorological and hydrological services in all further exploiting the real-time operational countries. The recent advances in computer- capability of the WWW system and permitting telecommunication technology can permit such other data users to take advantage of the system. an integration.

Satellites The environment dilemma

The long-term future of meteorology will Among the foremost global environmental issues certainly be determined by the initiatives of of the next few decades will be those of the weather services in making use of relevant earth’s atmosphere: greenhouse gases and climate scientific and technological advances; but it will change, the ozone layer, transboundary air also be influenced, to a considerable extent, by pollution and environmental accidents, both far-reaching space-policy decisions, to be taken chemical and nuclear. The most important of by satellite operating nations such as China, India, those that are not atmospheric in nature concern Japan, the Russian Federation, the United States the quality of water and especially transboundary of America, and western Europe. Considering the water pollution in international water basins. long lead-time for the development and testing of WMO and its Members must determine the role new space systems, planning is well underway for they will play to address these issues. For the the preparation of the next generation of atmosphere, WMO may be satellites which will provide global meteorological and environmental observations in (a) The protector of the global atmosphere; the first decades of the 21st century. The (b) The authoritative scientific voice on the development of the new generation of “space earth’s atmosphere and its state of health; platforms” will call for very substantial or Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

(c) A provider of weather and climate services ers and training of NMHSs staff on the delivery and only, leaving the above issues to others. interpretation of regionally and globally produced products, can make it possible to “bridge the gap” The first alternative would require assuming in services provided to citizens and economic certain roles from the United Nations Environment sectors in all countries. WMO should encourage Programme (UNEP) and others who are responsi- these initiatives and continue to promote its ble for negotiating international agreements on air resource- mobilization efforts from non-traditional pollution control. With a few exceptions it would sources such as the Global Environment Facility also require Permanent Representatives to deal (GEF), the World Bank, Regional Development with matters well beyond their normal national Banks and the New Sun Foundation, as well as to scope, and would necessitate development of new set as a goal of technical cooperation the attain- structures to include atmospheric chemistry as ment of at least a minimum level of meteorological well as expanding WMO’s presently limited activi- and hydrological services in every country. ties in atmospheric chemistry and pollution transport and diffusion. To take the third position will leave WMO and its Members with a narrowly Water limited mandate, with headlines and resources going to other agencies, as has happened in part, Water will be one of the foremost issues of the on the ozone issue. 21st century. Since WMO is responsible for operational hydrology and, jointly with the United The second alternative is probably the most Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural appropriate for WMO, but it should, where Organization (UNESCO), for water resources appropriate, strengthen its capability with assessment, closer ties with relevant bodies will respect to the protection of the atmosphere. It lead to more efficient and effective effort in the has been suggested that a “Law of the scientific and operational activities in this sector. Atmosphere” be developed for consideration by Strong links should be forged and maintained with 294 the United Nations General Assembly, which national and international agencies concerned would deal with transboundary air pollution, with issues such as water pollution and its trans- global- scale air pollution, greenhouse gases, port across national boundaries. However, if a ozone layer, and the free exchange of data wider range of activities is to be undertaken by required to deal with these issues. Should WMO WMO in the field of water, can the label “meteoro- promote or sponsor such an initiative? logical” in the present name of the Organization be still appropriate and would WMO’s mandate, as specified in its Convention, be sufficient to sustain Bridging the gap a broad water programme?

It could be argued that in recent years the gap between meteorological and hydrological services Natural disasters provided in developed countries and those provided in developing countries have been The natural disasters which are both most widening. Scientific advances and new technolo- devastating and most predictable are hydrological gies have permitted development and delivery of and meteorological in nature. National new and improved products, such as medium- Meteorological and Hydrological Services and range weather forecasts, seasonal forecasts, WMO should therefore continue to play an active quantitative precipitation forecasts, tropical role in the activities of the Decade. WMO should cyclone and hurricane forecasts, river flow predic- also ensure that it takes a lead role in any tions and flood forecasts as well as specially arrangement that is made for follow-up activities tailored agrometeorological forecasts. The beyond the International Decade for Natural resource availability will not allow the production Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). of this full range of valuable products in each country. However, a combination of powerful Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres Commercialization (RSMCs) linked to the World Meteorological Centres (WMCs), new satellite observations and The trend in a number of countries to leave more communication capabilities, advances in comput- activities to the private sector will probably Chapter 14 — Future of WMO and NMHSs continue to spread. Necessary arrangements precarious for several years now because of a should also be made to advise Members on cost stagnant budget and certain Member States’ recovery schemes. Resolution 40 (Cg-XII) of failure to pay their contributions. The UN budget Twelfth Congress enshrines the vital WMO for 1994 was only US$ 1 billion excluding principle of free exchange of meteorological data peacekeeping and US$ 1.7 billion for the UN and products. While there would be the need to specialized agencies. review the guidelines on the future exchange of meteorological data and products, every effort In view of the financial and other difficulties should be made to avoid threatening the basic encountered by the UN, several studies were foundation of WMO and to adhere to the spirit carried out on the future of the Organization. and the letter of the Resolution. These include studies by the “South Centre,” the “Commission on Global Governance” and the “Ford Foundation/Yale University Working Group Longer-term action on the Future of the UN”. The studies cited above made several recommendations and proposals to The basis for WMO’s longer-term action rests on the UN to improve its efficiency and cost the future vision of the United Nations and the effectiveness and to avoid duplication within the strength of WMO. system. However, consensus is still needed to implement some of the major proposals, which include the review of Security Council UN future vision Membership; the strengthening of the UN General Assembly (UNGA) and the Economic and On 24 October 1995, at the occasion of the the Social Council (ECOSOC); the review of the fiftieth anniversary of the United Nations, the usefulness of Regional Commissions. The UN following declaration was made: itself has an open-ended High-level Working Group on the Strengthening of the UN System. It “We, the Member States and observers of the UN, has yet to complete its work. 295 representing the people of the world, are determined that the UN of the future will work with renewed vigour and effectiveness in promoting Strength of WMO peace, development, equality and justice and understanding among the peoples of the world.” Since its establishment, WMO has played a unique and powerful role in contributing to the welfare of One of the central issues in this declaration is the humanity. One of the purposes of WMO, from the determination to promote development for the outset, has been to facilitate “worldwide coopera- well-being of humankind and for peace, security tion in the establishment of networks of stations and stability. As the development gap between for the making of meteorological observations as industrialized and developing nations widened, well as hydrological and other geophysical obser- the number of people living in extreme poverty vations related to meteorology”. This purpose was has reached one fifth of the world’s 5.7 billion translated to reality by the establishment of the people over the last decades. It has therefore World Weather Watch (WWW) which is the basic become a major challenge to the world programme of WMO. The WWW system ensures community to strive to achieve sustainability for the world-wide collection, analysis, and distribu- people all over the world and for future tion of not only meteorological and hydrological generations. information but also vital oceanographic, seismic information as well as those from other relevant communities such as the Inter-Agency Committee Streamlining the UN on Response to Nuclear Accidents of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and Over the years the United Nations has grown the UN Disarmament Commission. both in size and activities in response to many global issues such as conflicts and the need to The WMO Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) is establish peace and equality and provide another initiative which has given the sustainable development for all. However, the Organization a leverage in the area of monitoring overall financial situation of the UN has been and research activities involving atmospheric Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

composition. The GAW contributes to the detec- • The launching of the Tropical Ocean Global tion of changes in atmospheric concentrations of Atmosphere programme (TOGA) in 1985 by greenhouse gases, changes in the ozone layer, WMO, ICSU and the International Olympic pollutants, toxic chemicals, etc. WMO will Committee (IOC) which provided better continue to play a leading role in monitoring and understanding of the tropical alerting the world on ozone layer depletion. ocean/atmosphere system and its effect on climate. (The results of TOGA are With the further reinforcement of the WMO contributing to seasonal and longer-range programmes, particularly the WWW, the World climate prediction.) Climate Programme (WCP) and the Hydrology and Water Resources Programme (HWRP), the Finally, the new WMO Headquarters Building strength of WMO in disaster mitigation will which is planned for completion in 1998 will continue to increase. The systems and provide an added advantage to the Organization information available to WMO are powerful and because it will create the possibility of co-locating indispensable tools for the monitoring and or housing related geophysical activities under mitigation of disasters. The information and one roof. knowledge being gained about the climate and climate change, and the predicted global warming and their possible consequences, Future evolution contribute significantly to the protection of the atmosphere and the global biosphere. It will be Experience is increasingly showing that the hard to realize sustainable development without primary responsibilities of WMO, especially in the taking these factors into consideration. light of the new challenges, cannot be effectively met without giving due attention to other Another great strength that WMO has is its geophysical sciences, notably hydrology, unique capability and experience to organize oceanography and seismology. 296 global research programmes in geophysical sciences. This is confirmed by WMO’s active In considering the future evolution of the participation in the following events: Organization, it is important to note that:

• The First International Polar Year in (a) About 40 WMO Members have combined 1882–1883 when observations were made Meteorological and Hydrological Services; on meteorology, geomagnetism, ocean (b) About 40 WMO Members have currents and tides, ice structure and motion, responsibility for seismology in their atmospheric electricity and air sample national Services; analysis; (c) Similar standards and methods of • The Second International Polar Year in observation, data analysis and exchange 1932–1933 which produced new insights apply to meteorology, hydrology and on impact of observations on the accuracy of oceanography and some facilities and weather forecasts; infrastructure could be economically and • The International Geophysical Year (IGY) in efficiently shared and utilized; and that 1957–1958 which was predominantly (d) The interdisciplinary nature of centred around meteorological, solar meteorology, hydrology and oceanography, radiation and atmospheric ozone especially in the context of climate observations, as well as rocket observations variability, climate change and the IDNDR. and the first satellite launching (the scientific programme of the IGY led to the Antarctic Currently, not all of these sciences mentioned Treaty); above are adequately covered in the existing • The launching of the First Global system of UN intergovernmental organizations. In Atmospheric Research Programme (GARP) fact, there is presently no intergovernmental Experiment by WMO and the International mechanism for seismology. Council for Science (ICSU) in 1978, which also gave impetus to WMO’s research With the increasing realization of the importance capabilities and to improved prediction of water, WMO’s activities and those of other capabilities; organizations in this field could be further Chapter 14 — Future of WMO and NMHSs examined for more cost-effective and efficient activities can be developed and strengthened to support to sustainable development. meet the goals of Agenda 21.

The ad hoc means by which oceanographic A recent initiative has been taken to re-examine activities are implemented and coordinated at the all these fields to determine how best they could international level is of concern and deserves be further strengthened within the UN System. serious consideration if this important science is The results of such examination will provide an to be put on a proper international footing. Given important input into the on-going work of the the similarities in many respects with High-level Working Group on the Strengthening meteorology and hydrology, oceanographic of the UN System.

Management of change, National Meteorological and Hydrological Services: a vision for the 21st century

Excerpt from a lecture at the Technical Conference on Enhancement of Management Skills for Directors of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of Regions III and IV (Managua, Nicaragua, 5 November 1998)

Framework for a vision for Natural Disaster Reduction and its follow-up activities will be fully realized and The WMO vision for the 21st century is for a implemented early in the 21st century; 297 world which will benefit ever more greatly from • Collaboration among the geosciences, the unique framework of cooperation that has particularly between the atmospheric and been laid down during the 20th century and from ocean science communities and institu- the remarkable scientific and technological tions, will lead to the development of advances that have been the product of that skillful systems for seasonal forecasts and cooperation. The WMO is committed to exerting climate predictions such as on El Niño and its utmost in building a world in which: global warming; operational systems will be put in place to foster effective use of • Nations will continue to recognize the existing and forecast information for the inherently cooperative nature of social and economic benefit of all nations; international meteorology and will continue • Increasing cooperation between the to work closely together within the meteorological, oceanographic and framework of cooperation which underpins hydrological communities and institutions the WMO Convention; will lead the way towards an integrated • The principle of free and unrestricted global environmental monitoring and international exchange of basic service system built on the foundation of meteorological data and products will be the WMO World Weather Watch and maintained and strengthened; serving the needs of the full range of • Nations and scientific institutions and national and international users of communities maintain and strengthen their meteorological and related environmental commitment to collaborative study of the services; natural systems of the planet and the related • The WMO will work closely with the many global concerns; other agencies in the international system to • The potential of meteorological and provide an increasingly effective forum and hydrological early warning systems to reduce voice for the application of meteorological, the loss of life and property in severe hydrological and related sciences and weather, flood and drought situations knowledge to serve the needs of the citizens developed through the International Decade of all countries. Meteorological and Hydrological Sciences for Sustainable Development

In moving towards the 21st century, WMO also well as advances in science and technology will faces challenges which come with the changes affect WMO as it approaches and traverses the surrounding it and within it – its overall next century. WMO intends to proactively turn environment, resources and aspirations. A broad these challenges into opportunities to be able to range of external and internal factors, including better serve its Members. political and socio-economic developments as

International cooperation in meteorology

Statement presented at the First Student Conference of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) (Orlando, Florida, USA, 13 January 2002) Meteorological Organization

Sustainable development and This paradigm has now been referred to as vision for the 21 century sustainability science, that is, science and technology in the service of a transition towards Note: The initial portion of this address, which sustainability. In moving towards global deals with international cooperation in the sustainability, a basic challenge is to undertake past, appears in Chapter 1. wide-ranging but integrated, studies of the Earth system as a whole, in its full functional and geographical complexity (Obasi, 2001c). A new Sustainability science vision for international partnership and cooperation as well as a new form of social 298 The quest for sustainable development to ensure arrangement between science and society will be the viability of our planet Earth is one for which necessary for the sciences to address effectively international cooperation is essential. Research major sustainable development issues of today carried out in recent years demonstrates clearly and the future (Obasi 1999c, see Chapter 3). that the Earth system behaves as a single, self-regulating system comprised of physical, chemical, biological and human components. The interac- The vision for the 21st century tion and feedback between the component parts are complex and exhibit multi-scale temporal and In the light of the above, it is clear that global spatial variability. A fundamental aspect is the very partnerships and international cooperation will significant influence of human activities on the continue to be crucial to the success of the global Earth’s environment. monitoring of the Earth’s systems components, the advancement of the science of meteorology, In terms of several key environmental the provision of related services, the support for parameters, the Earth system has already moved policy formulation and implementation at outside the range of natural variability exhibited national, regional and international levels, and in humankind’s history. The nature of changes, international environmental governance. The their magnitudes and rates of change are existence and concept of WMO emanates from unprecedented (see Chapter 6). These also the global nature of weather and climate suggest that the world’s present development processes and the long-standing recognition that path is not sustainable. In this connection, it has nations working together can provide the been increasingly recognized that to meet the foundation for essential meteorological services needs of society and its growing population, and in all countries more effectively and at far lower to avoid further undermining the Earth’s essential costs than would be possible with individual life-support systems, a new paradigm of scientific nations working alone. It is recognized that the inquiry needs to be invoked. It is a paradigm that new world order is dominated by the process of addresses the complex interaction with society globalization, market-led economies and market together with the impact of society on the Earth liberalization, information and communication system (Kates, 2001). technology. There are continued advances in Chapter 14 — Future of WMO and NMHSs science and technology (UNESCO/ICSU 1999) the world community of nations as a model of that can be harnessed for meteorological international cooperation, especially within the observations such as those possible through wind United Nations system. The WMO vision for the profilers and the Global Positioning System (GPS) 21st century is for a world which will benefit systems. increasingly from the unique framework of international cooperation that has been The question may be raised as to whether there established and the remarkable scientific and would be a need to continue to foster technological advances that have been the international cooperation in meteorology that has product of that cooperation for sustainable served the world in a remarkably effective way development of all nations and for the for more than a century. The answer is that, given preservation of the global environment. the inherent nature of the Earth and the nature of the components of the global climate system, Therefore the challenge to all of us as humanity is by necessity bound to continue to meteorologists is to appreciate and take cooperate. The nature of that international cognizance of the important contribution which cooperation may have to change, but the international cooperation has made. Such principle would remain. This is partly because cooperation has laid the foundation for the meteorology is one of the most inherently development and advancement of the science international of all forms of human endeavour, and practice of meteorology for more than 125 and secondly, all nations share one “home”, the years. We should therefore resolve to continue planet Earth. Processes taking place in any part of nurturing such cooperation to ensure that planet will have implications for the other enhancement of our understanding of the parts. evolution of the components of the global climate system. Such knowledge and Given the historical heritage of WMO and the understanding will help guarantee the success it has achieved in fostering international sustainability of the life-supporting systems of cooperation in more than fifty years of its planet Earth for the benefit of future generations 299 existence, WMO has been widely recognized in that will inhabit our planet. References

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