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Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate Change Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River, Tanzania Using the SWAT Model

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Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate Change Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River, Tanzania Using the SWAT Model ARTICLE International Journal of Water Sciences Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate Change Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River, Tanzania Using the SWAT Model Research Article Alain Lubini1 and Jan Adamowski2,* 1 Department of Civil Engineering, Ecole Polytechnique de Montréal, Canada 2 Department of Bioresource Engineering, McGill University, Ste. Anne de Bellevue, Quebec, Canada * Corresponding author E-mail: [email protected] ȱ Received 13 Feb 2013; Accepted 26 Mar 2013 DOI: 10.5772/56453 © 2013 Lubini and Adamowski; licensee InTech. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. AbstractȱTheȱSoilȱandȱWaterȱAssessmentȱToolȱ(SWAT)ȱ dailyȱbaselineȱtemperatureȱandȱprecipitation.ȱUnderȱallȱ wasȱ usedȱ toȱ exploreȱ theȱ potentialȱ impactȱ ofȱ fourȱ scenarios,ȱ Simiyuȱ Riverȱ dischargeȱ increasedȱ (24Ȭ45%),ȱ climateȱchangeȱscenariosȱonȱdischargeȱfromȱtheȱSimiyuȱ showingȱ theȱ highestȱ increaseȱ inȱ theȱ rainyȱ seasonȱ Riverȱ inȱ Tanzania,ȱ locatedȱ inȱ theȱ Lakeȱ Victoriaȱ (Marchȱ toȱ May),ȱ withȱ theȱ greatestȱ increaseȱ occurringȱ watershedȱ inȱ Africa.ȱ Theȱ SWATȱ modelȱ usedȱ inȱ thisȱ duringȱ theȱ rainyȱ seasonȱ (Marchȱ toȱ May).ȱ Dischargeȱ studyȱwasȱcalibratedȱandȱverifiedȱbyȱcomparingȱmodelȱ wasȱ influencedȱ toȱ aȱ muchȱ greaterȱ degreeȱ byȱ increasesȱ outputȱwithȱhistoricȱstreamȱflowȱdataȱforȱ1973Ȭ1976ȱasȱ inȱ precipitationȱ ratherȱ thanȱ byȱ temperature.ȱ Theȱ wellȱ asȱ 1970Ȭ1971.ȱ SWATȱ wasȱ operatedȱ atȱ dailyȱ andȱ increaseȱinȱriverȱflowȱpredictedȱbyȱtheȱmodelȱsuggestsȱ monthlyȱ timeȱ stepsȱ duringȱ bothȱ calibrationȱ andȱ thatȱ theȱ potentialȱ increaseȱ inȱ heavyȱ floodȱ damageȱ verification.ȱ Forȱ theȱ dailyȬtimeȱ stepȱ verification,ȱ theȱ duringȱtheȱ rainyȱ seasonȱ willȱ increase,ȱ whichȱ could,ȱ inȱ modelȱ hadȱ aȱ Nashȱ Sutcliffeȱ coefficientȱ ofȱ efficiencyȱ turn,ȱhaveȱsignificantȱadverseȱeffectsȱonȱinfrastructure,ȱ (NSE)ȱofȱ0.52ȱandȱaȱcorrelationȱcoefficientȱ(R2)ȱofȱ0.72.ȱ humanȱ health,ȱandȱtheȱenvironmentȱinȱtheȱwatershed.ȱ Forȱ theȱ monthlyȱ timeȬstepȱ verification,ȱ theȱ recordedȱ Theȱ SWATȱ predictionsȱ provideȱ anȱ importantȱ insightȱ NSEȱ andȱ R2ȱ valuesȱ wereȱ 0.66ȱ andȱ 0.70.ȱ Inȱ developingȱ intoȱtheȱmagnitudeȱofȱstreamȱflowȱchangesȱthatȱmightȱ climateȱ changeȱ scenariosȱ withinȱ theȱ generalȱ patternsȱ occurȱ inȱ theȱ Simiyuȱ Riverȱ inȱ Tanzaniaȱ asȱ aȱ resultȱ ofȱ definedȱ byȱ theȱ Intergovernmentalȱ Panelȱ onȱ Climateȱ futureȱclimaticȱchange.ȱ Change,ȱ predictedȱ increasesȱ inȱ CO2ȱ concentrationsȱ ȱ wereȱ implementedȱ withinȱ theȱ constraintsȱ ofȱ theȱ Keywordsȱ Climateȱ Change,ȱ Modelling,ȱ Riverȱ Flow,ȱ modelsȱ parameterisationȱ byȱ raising,ȱ inȱ aȱ seasonallyȬ SWAT,ȱSimiyuȱRiver,ȱAfricaȱ specificȱ manner,ȱ theȱ valuesȱ ofȱ twoȱ proxyȱ parameters:ȱ ȱ www.intechopen.com Alain Lubini and Jan Adamowski: Assessing the PotentialInt. j. Impactswater sci., of Four2013, Climate Vol. 2, Change 1:2013 1 Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River, Tanzania Using the SWAT Model 1.ȱIntroductionȱ creatingȱ regionalȱ climateȱ changeȱ scenariosȱ combiningȱ GCMȱ resultsȱ withȱ theȱ newlyȱ publishedȱ IPCCȱ IS92ȱ Fromȱ politicalȱ andȱ socialȱ scientistsȱ toȱ engineersȱ andȱ emissionȱ scenariosȱ andȱ demonstratedȱ theȱ applicationȱ ofȱ hydrologists,ȱ theȱ impactȱ ofȱ globalȱ warmingȱ hasȱ theȱmethodȱinȱAfrica.ȱInȱHulmesȱstudy,ȱchangesȱinȱmeanȱ demandedȱtheȱattentionȱofȱresearchȱcommunitiesȱaroundȱ annualȱ temperatureȱ andȱ precipitationȱ underȱ anȱ IS92aȱ theȱworldȱasȱwellȱasȱofȱtheȱgeneralȱpublic.ȱClimateȱchangeȱ emissionȱscenarioȱwereȱpredictedȱforȱtheȱperiodȱofȱ1990ȱtoȱ isȱcharacterizedȱnotȱonlyȱbyȱrisesȱinȱsurfaceȱtemperaturesȱ 2050.ȱ andȱ seaȬlevels,ȱ butȱ alsoȱ changesȱ inȱ precipitationȱ andȱ ȱ decreasesȱinȱsnowȱcoverȱ(IPCC,ȱ2007).ȱMoreover,ȱclimaticȱ Hulmeȱetȱal.ȱ(1996)ȱtookȱaȱmoreȱselectiveȱapproachȱtoȱtheȱ shifts,ȱasȱaȱresultȱofȱglobalȱwarming,ȱhaveȱbeenȱlinkedȱtoȱ useȱ ofȱ GCMȱ experimentsȱ inȱ describingȱ theȱ 2050ȱ humanȱ healthȱ problems,ȱ waterȱ supplyȱ shortages,ȱ andȱ consequencesȱofȱthreeȱfutureȱclimateȱchangeȱscenariosȱforȱ biodiversityȱandȱecosystemȱdamage.ȱTheseȱclimaticȱshiftsȱ theȱ Southernȱ Africanȱ Developmentȱ Communityȱ (SADC)ȱ haveȱ alreadyȱ createdȱ problemsȱ relatedȱ toȱ humanȱ health,ȱ regionȱ ofȱ southernȱ Africa.ȱ Threeȱ differentȱ GCMȱ waterȱ supplyȱ shortages,ȱ andȱ lossȱ ofȱ biodiversityȱ andȱ experiments,ȱ selectedȱ toȱ spanȱ theȱ rangeȱ ofȱ precipitationȱ ecosystemȱintegrity.ȱManyȱstudiesȱconcludeȱthatȱAfricaȱisȱ changesȱ predictedȱ byȱ theȱ GCMȱ forȱ theȱ SADCȱ region,ȱ notȱonlyȱtheȱcontinentȱthatȱisȱtheȱmostȱvulnerableȱtoȱtheȱ allowedȱforȱanȱassessmentȱofȱsomeȱpotentialȱimpactsȱandȱ impactsȱ ofȱ globalȱ warming,ȱ butȱ alsoȱ theȱ oneȱ thatȱ isȱ theȱ implicationsȱofȱclimateȱchangeȱonȱagriculture,ȱhydrology,ȱ leastȱ equippedȱ (financiallyȱ andȱ managerially)ȱ toȱ handleȱ health,ȱ biodiversity,ȱ wildlifeȱ andȱ rangelands.ȱ However,ȱ themȱ (Perlis,ȱ 2009).ȱ Theȱ majorityȱ ofȱ Africasȱ populationȱ considerableȱ uncertaintyȱ remainsȱ regardingȱ theȱ largeȬ reliesȱ toȱ aȱ largeȱ extentȱ onȱ naturalȱ resources.ȱ Thisȱ scaleȱ precipitationȱ changesȱ simulatedȱ byȱ GCMsȱ forȱ dependency,ȱcoupledȱwithȱfragileȱgovernanceȱcapacities,ȱ Africa.ȱ Basedȱ onȱ suchȱ models,ȱ Joubertȱ andȱ Hewitsonȱ couldȱ resultȱ inȱ severeȱ problemsȱ inȱ addressingȱ theȱ (1997)ȱ neverthelessȱ concludedȱ that,ȱ inȱ general,ȱ challengesȱ ofȱ climateȱ changeȱ (IISD,ȱ 2009).ȱ Thisȱ willȱ precipitationȱ wouldȱ increaseȱ overȱ muchȱ ofȱ theȱ Africanȱ necessitateȱ effectiveȱ andȱ sustainableȱ waterȱ resourcesȱ continentȱ byȱ theȱ yearȱ 2050.ȱ Asȱ aȱ specificȱ example,ȱ theirȱ managementȱ andȱ adaptationȱ strategiesȱ inȱ theȱ short,ȱ modelȱ predictedȱ thatȱ byȱ 2050ȱ partsȱ ofȱ theȱ Sahelȱ mightȱ medium,ȱandȱlongȬterm.ȱȱȱ expectȱ precipitationȱ ratesȱ asȱ muchȱ asȱ 15%ȱ overȱ 1961Ȭ90ȱ ȱ means.ȱ Inȱ lightȱ ofȱ watersȱ importanceȱ inȱ agriculture,ȱ fisheries,ȱ ȱ andȱmanufacturing,ȱitȱisȱimportantȱtoȱassessȱtheȱpotentialȱ Moreȱ recently,ȱ Jungȱ etȱ al.ȱ (2007)ȱ usedȱ theȱ mesoȬscaleȱ impactsȱofȱclimateȱchangeȱonȱtheȱhydrologicalȱprocessesȱ meteorologicalȱ modelȱ MM5ȱ andȱ theȱ hydrologicalȱ modelȱ inȱaȱwatershed.ȱTherefore,ȱtheȱgoalȱofȱthisȱresearchȱwasȱtoȱ WaSimȱ toȱ performȱ aȱ jointȱ regionalȱ climateȬhydrologyȱ useȱ theȱ Soilȱ andȱ Waterȱ Assessmentȱ Toolȱ (SWAT)ȱ toȱ simulationȱ toȱ estimateȱ theȱ effectsȱ ofȱ anthropogenicȱ measureȱ theȱ likelyȱ impactsȱ ofȱ fourȱ climateȱ changeȱ influencesȱonȱtheȱwaterȱbalanceȱinȱtheȱVoltaȱBasin,ȱlocatedȱ scenariosȱ onȱ theȱ dischargeȱ inȱ Tanzaniasȱ Simiyuȱ River,ȱ inȱ Westȱ Africa.ȱ Theirȱ resultsȱ indicatedȱ aȱ decreaseȱ inȱ locatedȱ inȱ theȱ Lakeȱ Victoriaȱ watershedȱ inȱ Africa.ȱ Lakeȱ rainfallȱatȱtheȱbeginningȱofȱtheȱrainyȱseason,ȱanȱincreaseȱ Victoriaȱ isȱ notȱ onlyȱ theȱ largestȱ freshwaterȱ lakeȱ onȱ theȱ inȱ rainfallȱ atȱ theȱ heightȱ ofȱ theȱ rainyȱ season,ȱ andȱ aȱ clearȱ continent,ȱbutȱalsoȱoneȱofȱtheȱmajorȱsubȬbasinsȱwithinȱtheȱ increaseȱinȱtemperature.ȱ Nileȱbasin.ȱTheȱSimiyuȱRiverȱwasȱselectedȱbecauseȱofȱitsȱ ȱ economic,ȱsocial,ȱenvironmental,ȱandȱpoliticalȱimportanceȱ Lumsdenȱetȱal.ȱ(2009)ȱassessedȱpresent,ȱintermediate,ȱandȱ inȱ easternȱ Africaȱ andȱ becauseȱ fewȱ studiesȱ haveȱ beenȱ futureȱ climateȱ scenariosȱ forȱ Southernȱ Africaȱ toȱ evaluateȱ conductedȱ inȱ thisȱ areaȱ onȱ thisȱ topic.ȱȱInȱ thisȱ study,ȱ theȱ potentialȱ changesȱ inȱ hydrologicallyȱ relevantȱ statisticsȱ ofȱ SWATȱ modelȱ wasȱ usedȱ toȱ evaluateȱ fluctuationsȱ inȱ rainfallȱthatȱcouldȱbeȱobservedȱthisȱcenturyȱasȱaȱresultȱofȱ seasonalȱandȱannualȱdischargesȱinȱresponseȱtoȱfourȱfutureȱ climateȱ change.ȱ Theȱ scenariosȱ thatȱ wereȱ accountedȱ forȱ wereȱ developedȱ byȱ aȱ downscalingȱ techniqueȱ simulatedȱ climateȱ scenariosȱ inȱ theȱ Simiyuȱ River.ȱ Theȱ modelȱ wasȱ byȱ GCMs.ȱ Accordingȱ toȱ theirȱ study,ȱ moreȱ rainfallȱ isȱ calibratedȱ andȱ verifiedȱ usingȱ historicalȱ climateȱ andȱ projectedȱ inȱ theȱ eastȱ ofȱ theȱ region,ȱ inȱ theȱ formȱ ofȱ moreȱ streamȱflowȱdataȱinȱtheȱSimiyuȱRiver.ȱ rainȱdaysȱandȱmoreȱdaysȱwithȱgreaterȱintensityȱrainfalls.ȱ 1.1ȱPreviousȱstudiesȱofȱclimateȱchangeȱimpactsȱinȱAfricanȱ Atȱ theȱ sameȱ time,ȱ theȱ resultsȱ indicateȱ lessȱ projectedȱ watershedsȱ rainfallȱ alongȱ theȱ westȱ coastȱ andȱ theȱ adjacentȱ interior,ȱ withȱ theȱ possibilityȱ ofȱ aȱ slightȱ increaseȱ inȱ interȬannualȱ ApartȱfromȱTysonsȱ(1991)ȱearlyȱresearch,ȱrelativelyȱlittleȱ variability.ȱ workȱ hasȱ emergedȱ onȱ futureȱ climateȱ changeȱ scenariosȱ ȱ focusedȱ onȱ Africa.ȱ Tysonsȱ climateȱ changeȱ scenariosȱ forȱ UsingȱtheȱoutputȱdataȱofȱGCMsȱinȱorderȱtoȱaddressȱtheȱ southernȱ Africaȱ wereȱ constructedȱ usingȱ resultsȱ fromȱ theȱ impactsȱofȱclimateȱchangeȱinȱWestȱAfricaȱwasȱstudiedȱbyȱ firstȱ generationȱ ofȱ GCMȱ (Generalȱ Circulationȱ Model)ȱ ArdoinȬBardinȱetȱal.ȱ(2009).ȱUsingȱfourȱdifferentȱmodels,ȱ equilibriumȱ 2uCO2ȱ experiments.ȱ Inȱ aȱ furtherȱ theyȱ wereȱ unableȱ toȱ reproduceȱ rainfallȱ volumesȱ inȱ theȱ development,ȱ Hulmeȱ (1994)ȱ presentedȱ aȱ methodȱ forȱ Sahelianȱzone,ȱandȱtheyȱhadȱdifficultyȱinȱsimulatingȱtheȱ 2 Int. j. water sci., 2013, Vol. 2, 1:2013 www.intechopen.com seasonalȱ dynamicsȱ ofȱ rainfallȱ inȱ theȱ Guineanȱ zone.ȱ InȱotherȱwatershedsȱinȱAfrica,ȱGithuiȱetȱal.ȱ(2007)ȱusedȱtheȱ Runningȱ theȱ HadCM3ȱ(Hadleyȱ Centreȱ CoupledȱModel,ȱ SWATȱmodelȱtoȱinvestigateȱtheȱimpactȱofȱclimateȱchangeȱ versionȱ3)ȱmodelȱwithȱnewȱscenariosȱforȱfutureȱclimateȱ
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