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A SPECIAL REPORT ON THE SYMPOSIUM FOR TRAFFIC SAFETY RESEARCH

Alan S. Boyd, Secretary of Transportation SPRING, 1968 JUDSON B. BRANCH Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Allstate Insurance Companies at the Auto Insurance Industry Second Annua] Traffic Safety Research Symposium Allstate Plaza, Northhrook, 111. March 19 through 21, 1968

On behalf of the 1,400 Allstaters in our Home Office, may I welcome you to your Automobile Insurance Safety Research Symposium here at Allstate Plaza. I trust each of you will feel for the next three days and thereafter that our home is yours. Our greetings also go to our co-host, the Travelers Insurance Com• panies; to our Symposium sponsor, the Insurance Institute for High• way Safety; and to the University of Michigan Highway Safety Re• search Institute, which produced the basic body of research. We hope you are inspired by the Symposium Symbol and its mes• sage of Research, Reaction, and Results. Of course, the first letter of each of these words is "R" and so it follows the symbol of the Sym• posium deals with the three R's. Our three R's are more sophisticated, however, than those that have come to be associated with the little one-room schoolhouse. Today we are confronted with problems and challenges of a complexity undreamed of even a few years ago. One of these problems stems from the fact that it is popular in some quarters today to talk of the automobile insurance crisis. It seems to me that this view suffers from a lack of analysis. It confuses one of the identifiable symptoms with an underlying cause. It is true we are confronted with a crisis. It is, however, as much or more a crisis of transportation as it is of insurance—really a crisis concerning the role of the automobile in America. A crisis in the re- 1 engineering of our roads and our cars and drivers. Secretary of Transportation Alan Boyd will address you on the role of the automobile in the future national transportation system. I will not trespass on his area other than to suggest that as we re-engineer our roads and as we re-engineer our cars, we must also undertake to re-engineer those who operate them. This can only be done through a breakthrough in our knowledge of driver behavior. We believe that the catalytic effect of associating for three days in a highly or• ganized atmosphere of accomplishment will bring out of each of you major contri• butions in the field of driver behavior. These contributions, when organized and TRAFFIC presented can, in turn, offer us a blueprint for our future actions. Research must be our foundation. We must know more about driver behavior and we intend at this meeting to find out. All of our research must be dedicated vigor• SAFETY'S ously to support of the Highway Safety Act. This new era in traffic management for the nation must be our end objective—research is a vital means toward that end. The enormity of the traffic catastrophe demands swift and efficient installation of the THREE R'S highway safety standards in every state and community. But research is not enough. Reaction must occur if research is to be meaningful. The dedication of people to RESEARCH accomplishing goals upon which they have agreed is the reaction we seek. REACTION Results are what we all seek. Results are demanded of us because the real crisis we are facing is the 10,000-plus injuries every day. To the extent that a dollar sign AND can replace human misery, all of this adds to an unbelievable 900 million dollars a RESULTS month in economic loss, and each year it increases. To reverse this tide would in• deed be an accomplishment. I am confident that driver behavior research can help us to do this. And in turn as we begin to solve the problem of putting only qualified people on the highways —and allowing only qualified drivers to remain on the roads—then we begin to attack the root causes of these soaring increases in the number of accidents, the toll of lives, and the cost of insurance. Where does this lead us? The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety is taking the leadership in identifying, outlining, encouraging and supporting meaningful driver behavior research that must implement the Highway Safety Act. In addition to evaluating what has gone before, our seven research reports will break new ground in their assigned fields. In addition, they will disclose vast gaps in our present knowledge, and this will be helpful for future guidance. Our challenge, then, as this Auto Insurance Industry Second Annual Research Symposium opens, lies in two fields—competent research and vigorous action, together and immediately. NEW APPROACHES ANALOGY TO LEARNING

JAMES D/DAY, M.S., has an extensive background in automobile safety re• search. He is Research WHY DRIVERS Engineer of the Highway 11 Safety Research Institute BEHAVE AS THEY DO of the University of Michigan.

DONALD C. PELZ, Ph.D., is a professor of psychology and Project Director of WHO ARE THE the Survey Research Cen• 13 ter, Institute for Social DANGEROUS DRIVERS? Research, University of Michigan.

GEORGE E.BRIGGS, Ph.D., is a professor of psychology and director of the Hu• man Performance Center at Ohio State University, THE DRIVER IN DANGER 16 specializing in experi• mental and engineering psychology.

SELDEND.BACON,Ph.D., is Director of the Center for Alcohol Studies at Rut• gers University and has served on numerous na• THE DRINKING DRIVER 18 tional committees study• ing the effects of alcohol and drugs.

WARD EDWARDS, Ph.D., is a professor of psychology and head of the Industrial Psychology Laboratory, WE DRIVE AS WE LIVE 20 Institute of Science and ANALOGY Technology, University SPRING, 1968 of Michigan.

Analogy is published by the Allstate Insur• ROGER C.CRAMTON.J.D., is a ance Company, Allstate Plaza, Northbrook, professor of law at the Illinois 60062, on behalf of the company's University of Michigan Law School especially in• LEGAL CURBS Driver Education Section, Ralph J. Jackson, terested in effectiveness 23 Manager. Analogy is printed in the United of legal sanctions in ON DRIVERS States and entered as third class matter at controlling highway the Chicago, Illinois, post office. It is mail• accidents. ed free to a selected list of educators and others working actively in the field of traffic RONALDG.HAVELOCK, Ph.D., safety and driver education. Apply to editors is Project Director of the for permission to reprint text or photo• Center for Research on THE METAMORPHOSIS: graphs. Copyright 1968 m&M\ the Utilization of Scienti• TURNING FACTS 26 by the Allstate Insurance (yJ^^jS) fic Knowledge, Institute INTO FACTORS for Social Research, Uni• Company. versity of Michigan.

STAFF:

David U Watt Editor SECOND SYMPOSIUM ON A SUPERPROBLEM 4 Walter Oleksy Associate Editor Robert McCuUough Graphics Editor BRIEFL Y ST A TED 8 Sona Gordon Designer SUMMING UP THE SYMPOSIUM 30 Roger Burgis Production SECOND SYMPOSIUM ON A SUPERPROBLEM

More than 300 sociologists, educators, engineers, insurance executives, and others gather for a three-day look at driver behavior in an effort to make driving safer

By Sheldon Mix They came. They heard. They pondered. unappreciated rate of a year ago: deaths that research was needed, and this was And they contributed their knowledge of over 1,000 a week, and total casualties accomplished,'* said Don Costa, director and experience to the Auto Insurance running at over 10,000 injured each day.** of safely of the Allstate Insurance Com• Industry Second Annual Traffic Safety The symposium's attendees totaled 325. panies. "The second one put people on Research Symposium in its pursuit of a They traveled to Allstate's year-old Home the podium who could tell us how little mysterious theme: Driver Behavior— Office from as far away as California and we know about this driver who has grown Cause and Effect Massachusetts, and offered experience up among us. They also told us a lot Hie effort to understand why drivers from a wide range of backgrounds: that they do know, and what we can act as they do was conducted with an government, safety, sociology, psychol• reasonably expect to learn." all-day-and-evening seriousness that be• ogy, driver education, law enforcement, Over three heavily-scheduled, tightly- lled those modern tales of what happens engineering, and insurance—there were organized days,—from 1:30 pan. on Tues• when a large number of unleashed adult at least 160 insurance executives, includ• day to 3:30 p.m. on Thursday—the sym• males convene in a city far from home. ing 42 whose titles ranked from executive posium was preoccupied with some tough The three-day symposium last March 19- vice-president to chairman of the board. questions: Why does the man behind the 21 at Allstate Plaza In Northbrook, 111., This diversity was linked to the aims of wheel drive the way he does? Why does included neither singers, dancers, nor the symposium. he take risks, have accidents, disobey comedians in any part of its program— "There aren't any true generalists laws, ignore consequences? although several of the speeches were around here—the subject is too complex "Here we were getting into the driver's briskly seasoned with humor. for that," an insurance associate repre• mind, a subject that is largely unex• And when sessions were over for the sentative told this observer. plored," said Costa. day in Northbrook, a northwest suburb "Everybody has a piece of it It's like Faced with many unanswered questions, of Chicago, attendees were transported three blind men trying to describe an the symposium was an ideal place for on a 25-minute bus ride to their head• elephant; one's got the tall, another the its sponsor, the Insurance Institute for quarters for evening events, the Marriott trunk, and the third is probing the mid• Highway Safety, to publicly launch its Motor Hotel, which is about 12 miles— riff. But we can bring the people together permanent research program. The chief through heavy traffic—from the night• —for cross-pollenization. Coordinating all executives of the symposium's co-hosts, life of Chicago's Loop. the data is the first step. That's why the Allstate and The Traveler's Insurance As one of the symposium's planners insurance people are holding this sym• Companies, keynoted the gravity of the commented, "Yes, it was all business. posium; they're looking into new ways meeting's mission and called for hard- We were there to work, and that's Just of solving traffic safety problems." tackling of the problems faced. what we did." The symposium was given a big Job Stressing the three R's of the sympo• The seriousness of the symposium was to do In a short time: document and sium's symbol, "Research, Reaction, Re• underscored early on opening day by one catalog all past research on driver be• sults," Allstate's Chairman Judson B. of the first speakers, Dr. William Haddon, havior; begin cataloging knowledge gaps Branch told attendees that "as we re- Jr., Director of the National Highway on the subjects that need to be research• engineer our roads ... re-engineer our Safety Bureau, who told why he came to ed; convey to the nation's traffic manage• cars, we must also... re-engineer those the second annual symposium with ment structure such knowledge of driver who operate them. This can only be done "mixed feelings": behavior as can be transformed mto regu• through a breakthough In our knowledge "On the one hand, a great deal has lative and legislative action; and'Com• of driver behavior... We believe that the been accomplished in the year past — municate to the public all driver-behavior• catalytic effect of associating for three On the other, Americans are still killing al knowledge that can lead to the improve• days in a highly-organized atmosphere and maiming themselves on our high• ment of their performance as motorists. for accomplishment will bring out... ways at about the same bloody and largely "The first symposium set out to prove major contributions in the field of driver

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i Merrill Mueller, NBC News commentator, moderates between safety experts on the left (Franklin M. KremI, vice president. Northwestern University; John /. Conger, University of Colorado; Judge Betsy F. Hahn; Dr. William Haddon, director of the National Highway Safety Bureau; Anthony Grant, member of Parlia• ment, London; and Congressman John A. B/atnik) and the press (HarJand S. Byrne, News Editor, Wall Street Journal; John Cosgrove, editor. National Under• writer; Don Holt, Newsweek; Floyd Kalber, NBC newscaster; John McDonnell, Chicago Tribune auto editor; and Art Snider, Chicago Daily News science editor).

Alan S. Boyd, Secretary of Transportation and Anthony Grant, member of Parliament, discuss Sympo• behavior. These contributions . . . can. . . sium with AJIstate insurance executives Boyd Christensen, Archie R. Boe, and Chairman Judson B.Branch. offer us a blueprint for our future actions." Sterling T. Tooker, The Travelers' pres• ident, urged the establishment of a series of priorities in highway safety and rated the automobile-accident situation as ap• proaching "the proportions of a national disgrace": "We have growing public discontent —if not with the abuse of automobiles, at least with the costs of that abuse, whether measured in social or economic terms . . . We have the conditions in which the . . . public may be willing to set new goals for highway safety . . . But these goals must be set by the public. They must have roots in all the states and all communities ... We have before us a job of education and investigation ..." Tooker's address was followed immedi• ately by the first of seven research re• ports developed under the direction of the University of Michigan's Highway Safety Research Institute. (See pages fol• lowing this article for condensed texts of each report.) The reports represented areas in the driver's full 360-degree spec• trum as devised by Institute Director Robert L. Hess, Ph.D., and his staff. The first report, describing the systems-analy• sis of drivers, led to six related presenta• tions on attitudes and motivation, risk- taking and decision-making, alcohol's role, skills development, legal sanctions, and use of scientific knowledge. After the reports were presented, sym• posium attendees divided into panels and gathered in conference rooms to discuss applications of the reports' research to such areas as education, licensing, en• forcement, and legislation. There were 12 panels—two on each area. All panels were guided by authoritative co-chairmen —say, of 150 days' duration—by proving men why auto-accident news didn't make and composed of a mixture of specialists they can drive in rain, snow, fog, dark• the front page more often. —a move taken to assure maximum Inter• ness, and on expressways. Don Holt, Chicago Bureau Chief of play of ideas. "An airplane pilot has to log a certain Newsweek, said readers had built a toler• Panels kept to the sharp pace set for number of hours before he gets his li• ance to accident stories over the years the symposium and had no time for chit• cense. A doctor doesn't begin practicing and no longer paid much attention to chat. Here's how the 12 panels operated: when he gets his license; he serves three them. In Panel A-l, for example, which was or four years as an intern. I think we Television Newscaster Floyd Kalber, of concerned with education, the co-chair• should provide a built-in mechanism for NBC in Chicago added that his experience men divided their 30 men Into five "buzz" helping a man up the ladder to the time Is that the public has a "can't-happen- groups, each of which discussed one of when he is 25 years old and becomes a to-me" attitude. "People have told me, the five research reports that had been member of adult society." 'You're wasting your time giving TV presented up to that point in the sym• And another shift. time to accident statistics and stories.' " posium (panels convened again following "I think the possibility of having some• Judge Rahn countered that the killings the final two reports). body besides the public schools teach in Vietnam had been making the front Meeting in separate areas of the room, driver education should be explored. page every day for a long time. the groups were given an hour to consider A different structure ought to be Merrill Mueller stepped In, saying, the question: "What information given considered." "There Is no relation between a man in the report assigned to your group is "Gentlemen, if we take driver-educa• ordered to die and a man kilted in an relevant to the area of education?" tion out of the schools, we're in trouble. auto, who Is on the road voluntarily." Each group picked a reporter* and when I agree that we ought to improve it. For "There is a corollary," the Judge re• the hour's buzzing was halted, one of the instance, some students don't need as plied. "As a mother, with a son eligible chairmen called for findings and entered much time behind the wheel as others. for Army duty, I'm concerned whether them In five separate columns under the Some need six hours, some need 106; and my son is killed in Vietnam, or whether general heading "Education—Prepara• no provision is made for this. But let's he is killed in a car because a drunk tion of Drivers." not take driver education out of the driver crosses over the line. Multiply this Each buzz group was a five-comer ex• schools." by wives, husbands and children killed change of ideas expressed in such sophis• The discussion was ended promptly at hi accidents, and it's significant. We're ticated language as "subjective attention 5:15 pjn., when buses appeared at Allstate all concerned." span," "level of awareness," "hierarchy Plaza to transport attendees to the hotel Later, Mueller asked Dr. Haddon If he of importance," "the obvious primacy and the evening's program. thought the existing highways safety scale." On Tuesday night, the feature was an structure could cut the accident rate. One man was saying, "Many people address by Alan S. Boyd, U.S. Secretary The- Director of the National Highway don't see the driving task as a perceptive of Transportation, on the automobile's Safety Bureau, asserting that "holding act," and another asked, "What kind of role in the future transportation system. the line is not good enough," said "The visual cues does the safe driver use that "The auto," he said, "will continue to Job can be done, but we'll need a much the unsafe driver does not?" dominate American transportation as long tougher, hard-hitting approach. We've On another subject, "The 30 hours in as people can afford it... It may be pow• got to stop talking about generalities, the classroom and six hours behind the ered by steam and run on a cushion of and tell people about drinking; tell them wheel has been an historical formula, but air. It may be equipped to turn itself to wear seat belts or their head will be what the mix of knowledge and experience over to remote-control operation once it smashed against a frame. We need more should be Is open to question," reaches a freeway. It may one day took effort, more specific effort—not some• Twenty-five minutes passed and Dr. like nothing whatever on the streets to• thing vague like 'Drive Safely.' " Hartman called for another reporting ses• day. But If it has the advantage of con• Sitting alongside Dr. Haddon on the , sion, followed by a 45-minute discussion venience and dependability that motorists safety side of the panel was a member slanted toward the framing of Panel A-l's get from their cars today, they will use it." of the British Parliament's House of Com•

conclusions and recommendations, which F.*pinining that 40 percent of all Ameri• mons, Anthony Grant Esq., who had would be cataloged with those of the 11 cans now live in the 30 largest metropoli• been flown over from England to explain other panels at the end of the symposium. tan areas, Boyd said the Department of his country's new law that automatically The discussion held a pretty steady Transportation looks to mass transit as imposes a one-year license suspension on course and was often spirited: the best means immediately at hand for drivers who fail a breathalyzer test. Grant "In our society, with more cars and solving problems of peak-hour commut• said he was encouraged by preliminary drivers every year, driver education ing and downtown congestion. results of the law, passed last October: should move to a full semester—the 30- Next evening, the Marriott's Grand Ball• "In November there was a 13 percent &-6 formula has been unrealistic." room was the scene of a program called drop in road casualties, but 44 percent "It's not the amount of time; it's how "Safety Meets the Media," hi which six reduction in accidents during the drink• it's used." newsmen and six prominent persons vari• ing hours.—10 pan. to 4 a.m. In Decem• "We might feed Into driver-training the ously connected with the safety field ber a 21 percent drop, with a 47 percent strategy of driving, rather than the mec• asked one another questions. Their mod• reduction during the drinking hours." hanics of it." erator was Merrill Mueller of NBC News. Grant said the law Is rhfltrgfng the way "We should stress the whole task— The questions covered a variety of sub• of life in England. even map-reading." jects—feasibility of seat belt laws, prac• "I drink. I drive," he said. "Before "Young people need surveillance; they ticality of speed governors on cars, driv• last Oct. 9, I managed to do both rather need to know that somebody cares what ing after three drinks, the small rate of successfully. But since that date, when they're doing. You learn by doing. For progress In establishing state and federal the government passed the Road Safety example, you learn how to deal with laws in driving. Act of 1967, I have formed a partnership alcohol—you learn the risks. Young Municipal Court Judge Betsy Fitzgerald with my wife: I do the drinking; she drivers should prove themselves by steps Rahn, of Walnut Creek, Calif., asked news• does the driving."

6 Not long after the symposium closed, everyone who had attended received an interim report of the three-day meeting including panel reports, with conclusions and recommendations. The complete pro• ceedings will be published by the Uni• versity of Michigan in about five months. On the final day of the symposium, at• tendees were asked to rate it in a ques• tionnaire. (See the last article in this issue for a summation of the symposium by Dr. Hugh Miser, Vice President of The Travelers Research Center and Chair• man of the Research Advisory Committee of the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety.) Asked whether they thought the symposium had realized its goals fully, partially, or not at all, and given numbers from one to 10 as a rating scale, the 180 attendees who responded awarded the meeting a grade of 6.5—well on the high side of "partial realization." The questionnaire also asked which part of the program was most significant. "No one part," wrote one man, "rather the total atmosphere, which clearly point• ed to a real desire on the part of the two communities to work together." Another said the research reports were the high point: "Having spent 35 years in highway accident prevention, I was made to realize how few of our efforts were based on scientifically-proved facts." To one other attendee, "most signifi• cant" was the "Communication gap that exists between the researchers and me. We certainly don't speak the same lang• uage, and I'm not sure that we live in the same world." Also invited were suggestions for next year's symposium. Among the comments were: "Give the so-called safety profes• sionals an opportunity to inquire of mem• bers of the research community how they would apply the techniques which have been proved to be beneficial by scientific investigation," and: "Have less 'sitdown' time. I used my brain too little and my backside too much." Those close to the planning of the Second Annual Traffic Safety Research Symposium expect next year's meeting to concentrate on perhaps just one subject —with alcohol a possibility. Regardless of what course it takes, the third sympo• sium stands to match the eager dedica• tion that characterized the second—right down to the streams of shoptalk at its seven o'clock continental breakfasts and on the bus trips between Allstate Plaza and the Marriott. As a psychologist from California put it: "I'm particularly impressed by the seriousness of the insurance people. They realize there's a problem. And with the kind of enthusiasm we're seeing here, practical action will be sure to follow." BRIEFLY STATED

"We are all aware of the public's dis• "I must confess that before the Road state governments done more? Because satisfaction with the social and economic Safety Act of 1967 (of Britain) was passed, the power structure is not sufficiently costs associated with today's highway I was profoundly skeptical of this proposed concerned. Where it decides to make transportation system. But let me suggest new law—as to its substance and effect— streets safe, they are safe. It was done that what we are seeing now is only the and so were many of my colleagues. It is in Milwaukee." early stages of frustration... a frustra• therefore, as a politician, that I hate to tion that will increase and become self- say that I was wrong. But on the present FRANKLIN M. KREML fueling if we do not act with a sense of evidence, I certainly was. I am now en• Vice President urgency. The price the public is willing tirely persuaded that this act is going to Northwestern University to pay to ameliorate the impact of acci• prove beneficial to the road users and to dents is now higher than at any time in the public generally in the United King• the past. The degree of control over the dom. As a member of the Conservative "Studies indicate that man can process transportation system they are willing to party, it is particularly galling to have to information a lot faster when the results accept will increase and accelerate. We admit that the Labor government has of a wrong decision are not as final as have within our grasp the public per• actually done something worthwhile." they are in traffic. As a pianist, for ex• mission needed to reduce the human and ample, man can process information five economic waste taking place on our high• ANTHONY GRANT times as fast as when driving. A typist ways." Member of Parliament processes information almost four times The United Kingdom as fast as a driver." STERLING T. TOOKER President GEORGE BRIGGS, Ph.D. The Travelers Insurance "It's up to the press to get across the The Human Performance Center Companies message about seatbelts. Only 35 percent Ohio State University of drivers use seatbelts. But of those with only a grammar school education, the "The growing fatality rate for young male figure is 20 percent." "We find, using the seatbelt as a case in drivers compels us to search for motiva• point, that even when individuals believe tional factors that may help to account for WILLIAM HADDON, M.D. that belts add to safety, they still may not dangerous driving. The years from 16 to Director, National Highway go to that all-important act of buckling 24, and especially the years from about Safety Bureau them when they get in the car. A person 18 to 22, appear to be ones of turmoil, may have understanding and acceptance, during which the young man is striving but his acceptance has not been translated for the status of an adult without being "We need vehicle inspection but we must into behavior. Without this we do not have granted that privilege by society." keep in perspective that the driver is utilization." our main problem. We must make license DONALD C. PELZ, Ph.D. revocations stick, control the drunk RONALD G. HAVELOCK, Ph.D. Institute of Social Research driver, and encourage greater use of the Institute for Social Research University of Michigan seatbelts. Why haven't municipal and University of Michigan

Sterling T. Tooker Anthony Grant Franklin M. Kreml

II "People pass on blind curves at 75 mph "The future role of the automobile looks probabilities associated with unfavorable because they decide to. They run lights something like this: It will continue to consequences. . . and there is some exper• and stop signs because they decide to. dominate American transportation as long imental evidence in favor of this view. They fail to believe the abundant evidence as people can afford it. It may well change Whatever your judgments of the probabil• that shows they endanger themselves and substantially. It may be powered by steam ity that you could drive a certain distance others when they drive after ten drinks. and run on a cushion of air. It may be in half an hour without getting a ticket or They fail to process that information equipped to turn itself over to remote- having an accident, you might judge that properly." control operation once it reaches a free• probability as greater if you knew that way. It may one day look like nothing someone was going to hand you $500 for WARD EDWARDS, Ph.D. whatever on the streets in 1968. But if it making it unscathed within the time limit." Department of Psychology has the advantages of convenience and University of Michigan dependability that motorists get from WARD EDWARDS, Ph.D. their cars today, they will use it." Department of Psychology University of Michigan "The role of legal deterrence is to instill HONORABLE ALAN S. BOYD habitual modes of performance in com• Secretary of Transportation pliance with minimal standards. Presum• "License suspension in the United King• ably if a driver has fallen into bad habits dom is an effective deterrent. The major• (or failed to develop good ones) a viola• "Consider whether a business man would ity of people are more Likely to have ac• tion will make him aware of his defi• ship his product through the mail the way cidents if they drink. Alcoholics are only ciency." he ships himself and his family in their a small and narrow problem. We are con• automobile, loose at high speed in an cerned with the normal person whose ROGER C. CRAMTON, J.D. empty barrel, a barrel with a hostile in• ability is hampered somewhat by a few Law School terior . . . with sides that can spring open. social drinks." University of Michigan The same principles apply in shipping people as apply in shipping property. It ANTHONY GRANT would help if people understood this and Member of Parliament "The time is ripe to give more attention used safety belts when they shipped them• The United Kingdom to the problem of giving more emergency selves on the road." service to those injured on the highway. The fatalities in Vietnam are only 40 per• WILLIAM HADDON, M.D. "As a mother, I'm concerned if my son cent of those on our highways, but the Director, National Highway dies. If he dies because of a drunken medical services are vastly different." Safety Bureau driver or he's shot down in Vietnam, I'm going to be just as concerned." FREDERICK SEITZ, Ph.D. President, National Academy "A theory exists that people will overesti• Honorable BETSY FITZGERALD RAHN of Science and the mate probabilities associated with favor• Presiding Judge, Municipal Court National Research Council able consequences and underestimate Walnut Creek, California

Frederick Seitz William Hadd on Betsy Fitzgerald Rahn —©

"Now if some of this seems far fetched, "The automobile dominates every balance to the men responsible for design of the consider the successful advertising cam• sheet of American transportation. Nearly car-highway system." paigns that are used to merchandise auto• half of the total expenditure for transpor• mobiles, fuel, tires and the like. The same tation goes to buy and operate automo• GEORGE BRIGGS, Ph.D. consumer who wants safer highways and biles. When you add private trucks, you The Human Performance Center lower cost automobile insurance drives a account for three-quarters of all the money Ohio State University Cougar, puts a tiger in his tank, and pays Americans spend for transportation of any a premium for a tire that promises it will kind. Representing as it does about ten let him corner at high speed in the rain. percent of the Gross National Product, the "Results are what we all seek, results are Now all of these are fine products, and automobile is not only the backbone of demanded because of the 100-plus lives may indeed contribute to safety on the American transportation, it is in some lost every day, and the 10,000 plus injuries highway, but the way they are merchan• ways the backbone of the American every day. To the extent that a dollar sign dised, and the effectiveness of such ad• economy." can replace human misery, all of this adds vertising appeals, raises the question as up to an unbelievable 900 million dollars a to how clinical we can be in proposing to HONORABLE ALAN S. BOYD month in economic loss. To reverse this reduce highway accidents by limiting Secretary of Transportation tide would indeed be an accomplishment. horsepower, restricting licensing or apply• I am confident that driver behavior re• ing a number of other apparently logical search can help to do this." approaches." "The highway traffic system, of which safety is an important measure of effec• JUDSON B. BRANCH STERLING T. TOOKER tiveness, is a large-scale system which is Chairman President amenable to treatment by the methods of Allstate Insurance Companies The Traverlers systems analysis." Insurance Companies JAMES O'DAY, M.S. "There is a need for some sort of national Highway Safety Research highway safety organization which would "An insurance system which places the Institute, include all interest groups. Such an or• costs of hazardous driving . . . would tend University of Michigan ganization would do several things. It to reward good drivers and punish bad would provide an alternative to complete ones. If groups of bad drivers were re• government regulation . . . would system• quired to pay the full costs of their activi• "Some driving conditions are more de• atically plan the total problem and sponsor ties, some of them might be removed manding than others. What are these con• research . . . could provide a permanent from the road for inability to obtain in• ditions? In what way do people differ in forum for discussion of highway surance they could afford." their ability to absorb information on these problems ..." conditions? How greatly do they vary? The ROGER C. CRAMTON, J.D. answers are yet to be discovered through RONALD G. HAVELOCK, Ph.D. Law School laboratory and field research. . . The an• Institute for Social Research University of Michigan swers will be of immediate functional use University of Michigan Alan S. Boyd Judson B. Branch "There is little or nothing of a disciplined nature in the alcohol-highway damage field ... It is quite clear that studies are needed about attitudes and behaviors in relation to programs dealing with devia• tions from norms of driving, especially those associated with use of alcohol."

SELDON D. BACON, Ph.D. Director, Center for Alcohol Studies, Rutgers University A Can the driver be fitted into a systems analysis program that will bring him into safer harmony with the machine and the road?

Presented by James O'Day, M.S., Research Engineer, Highway Safety Research Institute, The University of Michigan, Mr. O'Day's research team included two to his colleagues at the Institute, Philip S. Carroll, M.S.E., and Lyle D. Filkins, M.S.E., both associate research engineers; Gerald J. Driessen, Ph.D., assistand director of research for the National Safety Council in Chicago; and Prof. Robert E. Machol, Ph.D., of the School of Business, Northwestern University.

The traffic safety problem, according to Dr. David Boo dm an of Arthur D. Little, Inc., can—hopefully—be treated in a systematic fashion. Dr. Boodman's positive statement was based on the thesis that "Traffic safety can best be improved by the application of scientific and quan• titative methods both to the study of the accident problem and to the selection of remedies for it." This thesis came about with the realization that the highway traffic system is (like the classically defined systems problem) large, complex, expensive, has many inputs which can only be described in a statistical fashion, is organized for a definable purpose, has man-machine inter• faces in real time, and can—in theory—be modeled mathematically. No one can doubt that the highway traffic system is large. In the United States there are 100 million drivers, 100 million cars, and 3.7 million miles of road; 13 million people are employed in the manufacture, maintenance, and commercial use of motor vehicles; 75 billion gallons of f fuel are consumed, and 1 trillion vehicle miles are driven each year. Complexity, in the systems sense, means that there are interactions among the parts of the system. For example, if many cars use studded tires, the road surface at intersections may become scarred. Road main• tenance procedures may change; perhaps a new surface treatment must be developed to cope with this problem. Transportation costs in the United States are enormously expensive, and modifying the system to increase efficiency or decrease the number of accidents can be a very costly process. The "inputs" to the traffic system include the people and all of their characteristics (both physical and mental), all of the kinds of vehicles (bicycles, motorcycles, many varieties of cars and trucks), animals on the roads, etc., all mixed in a manner that can only be predicted statistically. The traffic system is organized for a definable purpose—to permit the movement of people and goods for the satisfaction of a variety of in• dividual needs. And we assume, other things being equal, that more transportation is a good thing. People, who operate virtually every ve• hicle, are a most important part of the highway transportation system. An "interface with people in real time" means that people do not just stand outside the system and control it by setting dials—but by being part of an operating man-machine system. Finally, we have said that a characteristic of most large-scale systems is that they can be modeled mathematically. If this is true of all or any part of the highway traffic system, then we can apply the methods of systems analysis. If it is not true, we face the necessity of introducing changes in the system in the hope that they will be useful, then making judgments about their utility, making more changes, all without much understanding of the overall problem. This is not very different from "tinkering," except that it is on a very large scale affecting millions of people. These, then, are the attributes of large scale systems in general, and it is suggested that systems modeling may be of value in trying to solve the problems of traffic safety. Good system design requires that we (1) try to consider the problem in WHY DRIVERS an abstract sense, analytically wherever possible, (2) that we do not suboptimize (make something better than it really needs to be), (3) that the model chosen should be intuitively understandable (we can reason BEHAVE our way through it and believe the results of the analysis) and, (4) that the model is testable (it provides a place to put real data in the evalu• AS THEY DO ation process). 11 These same postulates apply to sub• is concerned with how well the human stand what each element of a driver ed• systems of the highway traffic system as operator accomplishes specific driving ucation program (or perhaps the entire well as to the entire system. The vehicle tasks. For example, how well does he education program) has to do with chang• Itself may be considered a subsystem, as stay in the center of a lane, or how well ing the driver's performance character• is the emergency care system, the thru- does he maintain his following distance istics, attitudes, decision-making pro• way interchange, etc. The whole highway behind a lead vehicle, or just how does cesses, and habit... that correlation traffic system—indeed the nation's trans• he pass another car. I hope you can see studies or comparison of accident rates portation system as well as most of its that a knowledge of bis physical charac• between groups can at best give us only parts—have been treated in this fashion teristics alone would not permit me to a little insight into the problem ... and by many people. Particularly successful predict that. I must also consider his at• that we had best take a hard look at ways has been work in traffic flow, road de• titudes about safe driving, his desires to to get the most out of research in the sign, and guard rail design. In a broader get somewhere, and the effects of legal understanding of human behavior. system, there has been the work of the and social pressures on his actions. In this conference, we hope to bring AFT (Advanced Forms of Transportation) Given a full understanding of his per• out for observation and discussion the program conducted by Booz-Allen for the formance characteristics, and knowing Just current state of research in the broad Bureau of Public Roads which, hopefully, what the traffic situation is (how many area of human behavior. Restricting our will provide a basis for general transpor• cars are on the road, where they are go• considerations to behavior permits us to tation planning. ing, how their drivers think and react), eliminate physiology and anthropology— At the same time, however, we are all I could perhaps predict the frequency of not because they are unimportant, but just too frequently bombarded by "expert" occurence of accidents as a function of that there is not room in a couple of days solutions—unevahiated, unmodeled, but one of the input variables. to consider everything. often persuasively presented. Equipment Now, I don't intend to claim that we Six technical presentations of the driver developers have seriously promoted elec• can make all of the necessary compu• and driving will be considered during the tronic anti-fatigue devices (so that one tations at this time. A great deal must symposium: (1) Attitudes and Motivation, could drive straight through from Chicago first be done, in the theoretical modeling (2) Risk Taking and Decision Making, to New York without resting), an anti• of the traffic problem. However, I do (3) The Role of Alcohol, (4) Skills De• skid device (essentially a 1200, 50 lb. claim that, without such efforts, we will velopment, (5) Legal Sanctions, and (6) spring—suspended weight in the rear be hardpressed to predict or understand Utilization of Scientific Knowledge. of the car's trunk), and a water-filled the effects of changes in our education Conference attendees also will be divided Dumper which is supposed to completely system, our laws, or our alcohol control into panels to discuss the application of protect the car's occupants in an other• programs. the research activities to six arenas of wise death-dealing crash. In the hard• Perhaps the picture is not as bleak as application: Education; Licensing: Man, ware or equipment-oriented suggested so• I have painted it One of our purposes in Machine, and the Road; Enforcement and lutions, the analytical tools we have at gathering here this week is to hear about the Courts; Legislation; and Public hand are adequate to protect us from many and to discuss the research on the driver Information. really bad and expensive ventures. which has been and is being conducted. What I have tried to put forth in this When human beings—the drivers—are Much of this past work has been done report is that the highway traffic system, concerned, the situation is not nearly so with due consideration to sound theoret• of which safety is an important measure clear. There is reluctance to apply the con• ical models, because the people who did of effectiveness, is indeed a large-scale cept of. analytical modeling to humans it were concerned with the ultimate utility system which is amenable to treatment in the highway traffic system, and the of their research. Other work was done by the methods of systems analysis. emotional element tea considerable factor. primarily in response to particular pro• In fact, these methods have been notably The interface with humans in the high• blems—and more often than not, it is successful in the past in the areas of way traffic system is complex and ob• hard to generalize these results to new highway and vehicle design, and there is viously requires more than hard physi• problems. hope for greater accomplishments there. cal engineering solutions can offer. It is Let me try to chase another example In the area of human factors, the sit• also, unfortunately, both an area of great through this chain. Driver education af• uation is perhaps less obvious, but, as need and one that is less fully developed fects driver performance—which in turn I hope will be made clear by my col• than the other areas. affects traffic, and so on. I have already leagues during the Symposium, the po• For instance, after a good many years mentioned that high school driver ed• tential payoff in this field is so great of experience, the value of driver education ucation programs are of arguable value— that we must emphasize a systematic, in terms of. accident reduction is still some people think they are good, some rather than a haphazard, attack on the questioned by many people. We must con• that they do no harm, and some think problems of the drivers. sider the driver's physical characteristics, that they not only cost more than they Systems analysis (or systems design, his performance characteristics, and the are worth, but they are in fact harmful. or systems engineering—terms with only effects of bis operating in traffic with Most of the evaluations which have slightly different meanings—) is not much other cars and drivers in studying the been conducted to date suffer from either more than common sense backed up by problems of traffic safety. too uncontrolled a population (in which analytical tools to consider difficult prob• Remember that what I am trying to the students in the educated and un• lems. I have heard it said that everyone achieve is a predictive model—that is, educated groups varied in many other has a little psychologist in him, and I I should like to be able to predict the ways), or with too little data (because will contend that each of us has a little effect of any changes I make which af• attempts to get well-matched groups to systems engineer in him too. fect the driver all the way through to avoid the former problem result in a the probability of an accident—and pre• very small remaining sample from which dict them in such a manner that they are no conclusions can be drawn.) intuitively acceptable and testable. I submit that we are not going to get The performance characteristic, then, to the bottom of this until we under• • 12 The accent is on youth in the number and severity of auto accidents. What can INSTITUTE FOR SOCIAL RESEARCH LIBRAR' be done to make the driving years from 16 to 25 safer for everyone ?

WHO ARE THE DANGEROUS DRIVERS?

Presented by Donald C. Pelz, Ph.D., pro• If we can understand why fatalities fessor of psychology and a director for the peak under 25 and thereafter decline, it is Institute of Social Research at the Univer• conceivable that we could speed up the sity of Michigan. His research team con• processes responsible for the decline, and sisted of John Conger, dean of the School thereby reduce the accident rates. of Medicine, University of Colorado; Fred• Motor vehicle death rates are not only erick L. McGuire, professor of psychiatry highest among 16 to 24-year-old drivers, and human behavior at U.C.L.A.; Ronald but have climbed faster since 1900 for this S. Coppin, head of the research and sta• category than for any other bracket. tistics section of the Department of Motor Undoubtedly young people have increas• Vehicles for the State of California; Noel F. ing access to cars. It is also possible that Kaestner, professor of psychology at Will• changing motivations about driving have amette University and staff psychologist contributed to the climb. Early accidents for the Oregon Department of Motor Ve• around age 16 are numerous but mild. After hicles; P. Robert Knaff, task force leader a couple of years of driving, accidents of the National Traffic Safety Institute become fewer, but more injurious when for the Federal Highway Administration in they do happen. The really dangerous Washington; Dr. Stanley H. Schuman, as• years for drivers are from age 18 to 22. sociate professor of epidemiology at the In two studies that Professor Schuman University of Michigan; and Donald H. and I have conducted in our home county Schuster, professor of psychology at Iowa of Washtenaw, Michigan, accidents by be• State University. ginning drivers involved injury in only one out of 10 cases, whereas between ages This presentation will be concerned with 19 and 22, injuries occurred in one-third one main question: Why are some drivers of the accidents. more dangerous than others? Why does the danger level rise after a We will concentrate on emotions, inter• couple of years of driving? Is the young personal realtionships, and needs of indi• man now skilled enough that he becomes viduals, along with life situations which over-confident and takes more chances may affect such factors, and will consider than his experience justifies? Is he driv• what such motivations imply for programs ing faster, so that when a collision hap• to induce safer driving. pens, the likelihood of injury is greater? Motivations in youthful drivers under 25, Is he experiencing more frustrations especially young males, are of particular which make him drive aggressively? interest. A colleague of mine at the Univer• How motivations and social roles are sity of Michigan, Dr. Stanley H. Schuman, connected with driving records are to be has studied fatality rates from motor ve• seen in data from a massive study of hicles by five-year age brackets, males ver• California drivers, using the 1962 driving sus females. He found that fatality rates records of 97,000 males and 68,000 females. were twice as high for young males as for Married males under the age of 25 men in their 40s. were found to have had more accidents

13 than those who were single, although programs he most needed, but thus far comparing drivers with and without driv• after age 25, married persons both male no such proposal has been offered. er education, and concluded that in most and female were safer than single per• An examination of the type of accident studies, drivers who graduated from driv• sons. A similar trend appeared for vio• may suggest motivational factors. These, er education had fewer accidents and lations: married males under 20 had more however, would have to be confirmed by violations than drivers with no formal violations than single males under 20. more direct measurement. A California driving course. Perhaps it is not the fact of being analysis of single car accidents in Feb• Recently doubt has been cast on these married, but rather of having recently ruary, 1963 indicated that such accidents findings. It is likely that most of the become married, that is responsible. are mcreasing in proportion of all injurious trained drivers in early studies took driver What about other events, such as be• accidents. Data from Michigan police files education voluntarily, and it is known that coming engaged, or breaking an engage• indicate that single ear-off-the road acci• those who volunteer are not likely to rep• ment? Getting a job, or changing one's dents are typical of young persons; older resent the total population. Even in studies job? Starting college, etc. persons are more likely to have two-car where trained and untrained drivers were Professor Schuman and I have found collisions. Why? "matched" on available measures of age, that dangerous drivers, compared with A factor analysis of six major accident educational achievement, urban-rural resi• safe drivers, were more likely to: feel causes demonstrated two general factors dence, etc., one cannot assume that the pressure from adults, respond to peer —rashness and inattention. In all likeli• "volunteer factor" has been ruled out. As pressure about driving, have fist fights, hood, the motivations underlying rash or driver education is made mandatory, can be aware of possible injury while driving reckless driving accidents will be found to we be sure it is still effective? The only and earn lower grades. include aggressive or rebellious motiva• foolproof design would be randomly to as• sign youngsters to driver education versus It is also fruitful to look into the mean• tions. Conditions underlying accidents due some other learning method (such as being ing of cars for young people at this age. to inattention or carelessness may come taught by parents). In our findings, youngsters who were more from rather different sources—pressures, involved in cars, in several ways, were anxieties, depression, or simply the dis• For the student who already posseses more likely to have accidents and viola• traction of a change in job, school, marital some skill, perhaps the main target is to tions. These were youths who spent time or social relationships, etc. Violations like• reduce over-confidence, to provide diffi• in cars for fun, work on their car, race in wise might be subdivided into those indi• cult road exercises in which the student cars, own their own car, etc. cating recklessness (principally speeding), can appreciate his own weaknesses. With Despite considerable literature on and those indicating inattention (such as beginning drivers, the aim is to build up school-age adolescents and on college turning from the wrong lane). Different confidence, along with basic training. students, relatively little is known from motivations may accompany each type. 2. Warning letters. Next we consider a solid research about what is happening What implications for remedial action number of techniques for the experienced to young Americans in the five years be• may be found from such research studies, driver whose accidents or violations have fore and after official adulthood. Avail• or from general psychological and socio• brought him to the attention of some au• able statistics suggest that upheavals are logical knowledge? Before we consider thority. Typically they receive a warning occurring at this stage of life which may specific remedial programs, some general letter, and if their infractions continue they spill over into driving. The young person observations may be stated. may lose their license. is struggling to become an adult, but is Most remedial programs come in stand• Dr. Noel F. Eaestner conducted a fruit• not granted that privilege by society. Feel• ardized packages, like all-purpose tonics ful experiment in Oregon last year in which ings of rebellion and resentment are to cure all ills. Little effort is made to de• problem drivers were randomly assigned to likely to be high. sign the remedy in terms of an under• one of several treatments. When a form I shall not attempt to review numerous standing of causes. letter was personalized by individual typ• studies in which accident-prone and acci• We know that drivers and potential driv• ing and signature, with the same wording, dent-free drivers have been compared in ers differ widely in aptitude and orienta• traffic involvements were reduced signifi• terms of deep-seated personality charac• tion. Should the same driver education cantly over six months. And when a per• teristics and other enduring traits. One of program, for example, be administered to sonalized "soft sell" letter was used, there the best-known of these, by Tillman and those who want adult guidance and those was further improvement, which lasted Hobbs (1949) demonstrated in one such who resent it? Should the same Driving through a full year. The study also showed comparison that accident-repeating adults Improvement session be given the young more improvement for drivers under 25. were consistently unsuccessful In other first offender, the hardened offender, and It may be desirable to consider different areas of their lives compared with an the elderly offender? segments of the driving population sepa• accident-free group, and popularized the Our consultants mentioned a program rately. Techniques which work for youth• phrase "a man drives as he lives." in Wisconsin which tried to distinguish ful or first offenders may differ from those for older or hardened offenders. Psychological inventories have been between those drivers needing mainly made to predict good from poor insurance skill training and those drivers with an Why should one type of warning letter risks among youthful drivers. The Grin- improper attitude, for whom group dis• work better than another—or why should nell Mutual Reinsurance Company in Des cussion was felt appropriate (Note the a warning letter work at all? A common Moines, for example, was able to reduce parallel with the two accident factors of in- complaint of our age is the sense of insurance premiums on good risks and attentiveness and rashness respectively). anonymity—the feeling in a mass society still profit financially. Now that we have explored a few of the that "nobody cares." Simply to know that Aside from their possible use in setting many problems involving driver motiva• one's driving is being watched by someone insurance premiums, attitude inventories tions, I would like to discuss a few find• who encourages rather than threatens— do not appear useful hi improvement of ings on existing programs, and more im• may help the young driver to settle down driving. It is dubious that a driving license portantly, would like to describe creative in his driving behavior. could be withheld on the basis of psycho• searches for new solutions. 3. Driver improvement interviews. In logical tests alone. Conceivably an indivi• 1. Basic driver education. In 1957, the numerous programs, negligent drivers are dual's score on an attitude inventory National Education Association summa• required to attend a session either indi• might indicate which of several training rized 26 studies in a number of states vidually or in a group where techniques

14 ranging from safety lectures to tests, coun• of suspended negligent drivers and two- specified number of credits for various ex• selling, and group discussion may be ap• thirds of drivers whose licenses had been periences , he moves to the next higher skill plied. Not surprisingly, results from such revoked in fact drove during the suspen• level, at which point his insurance pre• programs are ambiguous. Many violate sion or revocation. There appeared to be mium is lowered. After additional specified principles of learning—by having listen• little relation between the frequency of experience, another skill level is earned ers passively sit through a lecture. driving under suspension or revocation with corresponding insurance reduction. It is essential to use the technique of and the severity of penalties assessed by After attaining the fourth level, his in• randomly assigning drivers to treatment the court. It also appeared that drivers surance premium is equivalent to that and control groups. Any group of drivers receiving more severe punishment proved of a driver at age 25. singled out because of their poor record to have a greater number of subsequent In this way the young person could in a given time are certain to show a involvements than did drivers receiving earn, through demonstrated experience subsequent improvement simply because less severe action. in safe driving under a variety of condi• of the statistical process of "regression Does severe punishment induce a neg• tions, the right to be considered an adult toward the mean." The question is wheth• ligent driver to drive in a more negligent driver. Over-confidence would be reduced. er the treated group improves any more fashion? Such a strange result, if true, Such a program would utilize strong mo• than an equivalent but untreated group. would be consistent with the "dissonance tivations to help the young driver through An unusual experiment is how being theory" developed by Leon Festmger and the difficult and dangerous first six-years conducted in the Washington State De• others. In Iowa, Professor Donald Schuster of driving. partment of Motor Vehicles. Negligent is testing the results of differential severi• To summarize, the excessive and grow• drivers in danger of losing their licenses ty of action. ing fatality rate for young male drivers report for a dozen periodic conferences, 6. Other remedial ideas. In my own compels us to search for motivational each time signing an affidavit about then- view, creative efforts are urgently needed factors (emotions, interpersonal relations, driving behavior during the previous to devise imaginative alternatives to the changes in the life situation) that may help period. The theory appears to be—and it present standardized approaches. One ex• to account for dangerous driving. The makes good sense to me— that the offen• ample: at the American Institutes for Re• years from 16 to 24, and especially the der is given a chance to work his way out search, Clifford Hahn and Dorothy Ed• dangerous years from about 18 to 22, ap• of the mess he is in, by demonstrating to wards have filmed on-the-road driving, pear to be ones of turmoil, during which himself (and to the examiner) that he can unknown to the driver, who was then the young person is striving for the status adhere to self-directed standards. The aim invited to a session to see his own and of an adult without being granted that is to build control from within, rather others' Alms and evaluate them. Their privilege by society. than to impose threats from without. study is still under way. The standard remedial procedures (such 4. Driver improvement—group discus• 7. Follow-up of safe as weU as negligent as high school driver education, warning sion. Again the evidence is ambiguous, drivers. Let me conclude with a plan that letters, driver improvement interviews, although some investigators offer encour• might be applied broadly, wherever there license suspension or revocation) seem agement. It should also be obvious that exists a computerized system for up-to-date largely to ignore motivational factors. no potency lies in group methods as such. driving records, and active support by the Where modifications of the standard prac• Twenty persons watching a film or hearing insurance industry. At present the young tices have been applied—such as building a lecture do hot constitute a "group" in man or woman gets his license at 16 and on the individual's own interest, or using the true sense of the word. assumes he is now "a driver" with the encouragement more than threat—prom• This spring, Professor Schuman and I same skills as anyone else on the road. As ising improvement has been noted in sub• will try out some ideas of our own for soon as he starts to drive, Ins parents in• sequent violations and accidents. Several stimulating self-awareness of motivational surance premiums automatically go up, creative experiments now going on were factors in driving. The objective will be and they come down only when he reaches described, but more work along these two-fold: First, to bring to the surface a a specified age. Nothing in this system is conscious and shared awareness of the designed to motivate the young driver to place that emotions and motivations play scrutinize his own behavior, to realize that in driving; second, to explore how the he has yet much to learn about driving, young driver can compensate for the ef• or to work toward self-improvement. fects of such factors on his driving. It is theoretically possible to replace The California Department of Motor this system with one having built-in mo• Vehicles is undertaking a study with 15,000 tivations toward responsible driving. negligent drivers, which will compare the (Whether the system I shall describe is effects on driving performances with sev• legally or fiscally feasible remains to be eral types of initial contact, beginning with determined.) Let the insurance industry a standard warning letter, meetings, and (with the blessing of the Insurance Com• two types of individual hearings. One of mission, of course,) inform the newly- the experimental treatments involved a licensed young driver that although he "stress interview" for which analysts re• is now legally entitled to drive, he is by ceived special training by a psychiatrist. no means an experienced driver. Field activities were completed in 1968. Let there be established about four Driving experiences during 1967have been "skill levels," each defined by specified obtained, and are now being analysed. numbers of driving experiences under a 5. The repeated offender. What should variety of conditions such as expressways, be done with the repeated traffic offender? night-time, long-distance, rain, fog, snow, Enforcement through license suspension etc. One "unit" of experience might be or revocation is by no means an effective defined as a half-hour or more of driving answer. A California study last year indi• on one day, under one of these conditions. cated that over a six-year period one-third After the individual has accumulated a

IS 1

Researchers can help educate drivers to see a potentially-dangerous situation and react in all of his information processing ability Field testing of the tri-light system show• Presented by George Briggs, Ph.D., pro• on the area of most immediate danger. ed that following vehicles braked earlier fessor of psychology, the Human Per• Studies indicate that man can process to maintain an interval when the yellow formance Center, Ohio State Univerity. information a lot faster when the results light indicated mild deceleration. While the Research team members: Harry W. Case, of a wrong decision are not as final as advantage was not as great with sudden, Ph.D., director of the Institute of Trans• they are in traffic. As a pianist, for ex• sharp braking actions, the following driv• portation and Traffic Engineering, UCLA; ample, man can process information five ers still braked two-to-three-tenths of a Marvin J. Herbert, Ph.D., chief of the times as fast as when driving. A typist second sooner than with the conventional Skills Analysis Branch of the U.S. Army processes information almost four times rear end coding. At 70 miles an hour this Medical Research Laboratory, Fort Knox, as fast as a driver. amounts to 20 to 30 feet. This could make Ky.; Thomas H. Rockwell, Ph.D., profes• the difference between safety and disaster. sor of industrial engineering, Ohio State Rockwell's studies disclosed that a driv• University; and Thomas B. Sheridan, er's eyes skip around to pick up important Just as the conventional rear end coding Sc.D., professor of industrial engineering traffic cues. How many places he looks and system gives too little information, some and operations research, the University how long his eyes spend on each element of the rear-end coding devices checked by of California, Berkeley. depends on how complex the driving en• Rockwell gave too much information. One vironment is at that exact moment. The system with 12 lights gave following driv• more traffic cues there are, the more infor• ers such an information overload that it You have to see it if you are going to mation the driver takes from the scene. actually slowed down drivers' reactions. miss it or get out of its way. Since traffic Also the length of time spent on each Several systems are presently under is getting more complex every day, re• piece of traffic information decreases consideration which by-pass the driver. searchers are working to discover the slightly as available information increases. Examples are speed regulators and anti• answers to three important questions: The problem comes when the amount of skid braking systems. For the foreseeable 1) What are man's limitations as a detector available information exceeds the ability future, however, the great majority of of traffic cues; 2) What can be done to of the driver to notice it, analyze it, make driver safety functions will continue to make it easier to pick out important infor• a valid decision, and perform the necessary pass through the driver. mation; 3) What sort of training can help physical maneuver to effectively carry out Research by Case and his UCLA associ• man be a more efficient processor of the decision. Since a person can only make ates indicates that man is a rather sensi• traffic information? effective use of a limited amount of infor• tive detector of acceleration and decelera• Because most traffic information comes mation at one time, one priority area for tion. He is also very quick to realize when to us through our eyes, Thomas Rockwell improvement is in the way information is his vehicle is starting to skid. On the other and his associates at Ohio State University presented to the driver. An example is the hand, work by Rockwell discloses that devised a system that linked the driver's coding of information. In the coding pres• man is a poor detector of relative veloci• eyes with a beam of light and a motion ently used on the rear end of all cars, an ties. This would help explain why the picture camera. When the camera photo• increase in the intensity of the taillights nation's records contain so many rear-end graphed the scene in front of the driver, signals deceleration by that car. Only after collisions and passing crashes. More in• the light beam made a white spot on the the following driver recognizes this change formation of this sort is needed to help film to indicate where the driver's eyes in taillight intensity does he start to decel• develop programs for the training of driv• were concentrating. They found that at erate or make an evasive maneuver. ers. Basic laboratory research on man's 50 miles an hour a driver's eye focuses Rockwell's team examined a number of sensory capacities, backed by matching 200 feet ahead of the car and in his own rear end coding devices including one they field studies, will give trainers the leads lane. refer to as tri-light. With this device, green they need to develop meaningful pro• Work done by Sheridan and associates lights were displayed to following drivers grams. Training activities started without at MIT indicates that when the driving any time the tri-light car was traveling at a proper research foundation are in danger task was routine and relatively simple, a constant speed or accelerating. When of failure because their task exceeds the drivers tend to look far ahead and move the green lights went out and yellow lights driver's capabilities while he is under their eyes in a relatively leisurely manner. came on it indicated that the test car was actual driving conditions. For critical maneuvers such as passing, decelerating mildly such as it would if the Training and experience are of great drivers shorten their view and spend less driver took his foot off the accelerator. importance in driving. Traffic decisions time looking at each cue. The shorter pre• The yellow lights would be replaced by red based on ignorance are risky at best. view distance permits the driver to devote lights to indicate a definite braking action. Everyone is familiar with the "crazy" U with safety, to avoid disaster driver who weaves in and out of tight er's knowledge that he can't be hurt will road is a monument to the thousands of freeway traffic. Briggs described a theory lead him to have a different reaction pat• drivers who daily maneuver past it at 50 about reckless driving, especially as it tern in the simulator than on the road. to 60 miles an hour—probably without giv• applied to young drivers. He feels that These tests should also yield valuable in• ing it a conscious thought. Hundreds of man will always try to find out the limits formation on the role that simulation can times each mile rush hour drivers make of any man-machine system. play as a training tool in driver education. and implement decisions that keep them For instance, when man takes flight While vision is undoubtedly the richest from being involved in crashes. instructions, he is taught.the limits of the source of driver information, it is not the As well as they drive, our citizens are aircraft. Under the guidance of the instruc• only one. Herbert and his associates at the involved in crashes that kill over a thou• tor he experiences and feels the limits of Fort Knox Medical Research Laboratory sand people a week—crashes that develop the machine. Briggs stated that while this have run a series of 12 tests searching for an economic loss that runs into the billions experience may be a little terrifying at information on man's ability to pick up each year. Road design teams need to get times, it is crucial for the pilot to know driving cues from senses other than vision. rid of obviously bad features like the the sensory cues which indicate that a Using military trucks with and without trees and abutments. Better ways will be dangerous flight condition is imminent. trailers, the Herbert team tested drivers found to package people within their Just as importantly, the pilot can then be for their ability to drive up an incline, vehicles. But most importantly, we must trained in what to do if the aircraft enters stop, hold without slipping and then pro• help drivers to deal more effectively with that unsafe state. Since this sort of train• ceed up the incline. The test was contin• the traffic environment. ing is not a part of present driver educa• ued to check their ability to drive down Some driving conditions are more de• tion courses, young drivers experiment the incline using the same procedures. manding than others. What are these con• on their own. The "reckless" 19-year-old, The significance of auditory cues and ditions? In what way do people differ in Briggs feels, is testing the limits of his sense of feel were tested by having the their ability to absorb information on these skills and of the system (auto-road) he is drivers "feel" their way along a crushed conditions? How greatly do they vary? The operating. If he survives, he will be a rock path 12 inches wide for a distance of answers are yet to be discovered through better driver for the experience. Briggs 167 feet. Since the drivers wore blackout laboratory and field research. New driver's hastened to point out, though, that the goggles, their steering movements were licensing procedures, improved insurance risk involved in do-it-yourself testing is directed by their sense other than vision. rating systems and more effective techni• high for the young driver and everyone A contour test required the driver to go ques for training new and experienced around him on the road. through interlocking circles without driver will surely result from the answers The answer, he feels, is to have this touching lines with either front wheel. to these questions. The answers will also need taken care of as part of driver edu• Among the results of the Herbert tests be of immediate use to the men responsi• cation rather than at the great risk to was information on reaction time, sensi• ble for design of the car-highway system. "the rest of us." One method of research tivity to motion cues and man's ability to A lot more needs to be known about that could yield useful information on make rapid and accurate movements in man's ability to detect and evaluate traffic how to do this is driving simulation. The the correct direction. They also produced information. When this information is simulators can provide life-like experience data on a driver's ability to coordinate available, field testing will follow to without the risk that is present in road movements of arms and legs and know• double-check man's sensory capabilities testing. As a research tool, simulation has ledge on how well man can evaluate his under actual driving conditions. other advantages besides safety. It gives position both with and without visual cues. Whether laboratory and field studies the scientist control over the environment Such information is not only valuable will lead to training programs for drivers and the ability to produce exactly the ex• in furthering the development of theories or changes in vehicle and road design is perience he needs—as many times as he but in designing driver training courses not yet known. It is certain, however, that needs it. It also yields data at a relatively and setting up testing procedures as well. changes not backed by adequate research low cost per unit. Actually drivers in this country do rather would most likely waste time and lives The field testing that will necessarily well when you consider their environment. on false starts. follow simulation experiments will help This country not only has the world's answer whether we can simulate driving highest concentration of vehicles, but the emergencies as faithfully as they have lowest fatality rate for any major country. been simulated for flight training. Just as Every unscarred tree and abutment that importantly, we need to know if the driv• stands within a few feet of an arterial

17 THE DRINKING DRIVER

in terms of all the automobile highway Presented by Seldon D. Bacon, Ph.D., problems other than the alcohol-affected director of the Center for Alcohol Studies, part and all the consequent response Rutgers University. His research team systems, it is quite clear that many sorts members included John A. Carpenter, of innovation were attempted and, of Ph.D., associate professor of psychology these many were attended by relatively at Rutgers and an associate of Mr. Bacon's successful outcomes. Some of them in• at the Center for Alcohol Studies; Ronald volved controls over individual behavior L. Cosper, M.A., instructor of sociology which were thought so radical that cer• at Rutgers; Ira H. Cisin, Ph.D., professor tain failure was predicted. Controls on of sociology at George Washington Uni• speed, parking, equipment inspection, ex• versity, Washington, D.C.; Wolfgang amination of drivers, compulsory insur• Schmidt, M.S.W., associate research di• ance, enormous automatic girds of stop rector of the Alcoholism and Drug Addic• and go signs, and on and on. tion Research Foundation, Toronto, Canada; and Richard Zylman, field re• All sorts of technical gadgets requiring search supervisor of the Department of sensitivity, discrimination and action by Police Administration at Indiana Univer• individual drivers, such as different sorts sity, Bloomington, Indiana. of lights, direction arrows, window cleaners, seat belts, wheel-locking devices, etc., have been added to the vehicles to Since the first automobile took the road provide for safety. at the turn of the century, many people But when we turn to programs dealing have expressed concern about death, in• with alcohol-affected highway problems, jury, and property damage involving the it takes very little sophistication to realize use of motor vehicles by a driver under that we are viewing an entirely different the influence of alcohol. It is difficult, phenomenon. The similarity of these re• however, to show that social scientists sponses to the responses to chronic have been concerned, even as recently as drunkenness, to the responses to alcohol five years ago. By social scientists I mean and youth problems, to the responses anthropologists, sociologists, political to problems of distribution of alcohol scientists, economists, some types of beverages, to the alcoholisms, and so on social psychologists. are so great that they seem all of a piece. These social scientists of necessity must And they seem quite remote from the rely upon the research of psychologists, responses to the other traffic problems. physiologists, and biochemists who study From a social science viewpoint, there the individual animal called man. has been little if any development in the Social science is concerned particularly substantive field of driving. with the structure, functioning, internal To the sociologist the idea that all and external relationships, and develop• driving is one and the same thing is ment through time of two categories of similar to stating that all worship or all phenomena. One is called "culture," employment is one and the same thing. which includes things used by humans In order to provide meaningful descrip• and their techniques and patterns of ac• tions and comparison and generalization, tion and ideas as these persist or operate he requires classification. In this field up beyond the individual level. The other is to this time, if there have been classifica• called "group," the patterned and per• tions at all, they have been in terms of sisting networks of interpersonal relation• single car occupant versus occupancy by ships which can be seen in such groupings one or more beyond the driver. as the family or in such categories as the Objective knowledge about the laws job or in the roles which individuals acti• dealing with alcohol and its use is not vate as members of such groupings or as only close to nonexistent, but even those utilizers of parts of the culture. few in the field of law who are concerned Whereas other researchers may start are sharply split in interest according to with reaction time or vision or metabolism particular alcohol problems. Those con• of alcohol or accident or disease or prima cerned with the alcoholisms form one facie or implied consent or immaturity or group; those concerned with public drunk• fatigue, the social scientist starts off with enness another; those concerned with the the word "custom." And with that start control of sale and distribution yet an• he changes the usual bases of analysis. other; those concerned with alcohol and As one considers the 1900-1960 period road traffic yet another. These small groups do not even know The psychologic knowledge seems to be psychologic effect of small amounts of each other and have an almost total pretty good in one sphere, namely—ef• alcohol is felt to be presently inadequate. disregard for the relevance orworthwhile- fects of larger amounts of alcohol upon It may be concluded that the need for ness of the practical or theoretical ques• behavior. However, the social phenomeon especially discriminating analysis and es• tions raised by the other groups. The happens to include all sorts of amounts. pecially selective policies for action field of law is Just one among many; the Above all, for the greatest part of driv• brought about by the comparatively low same characteristics have been the rule ing following drinking, it includes smaller ratio of driving - damages in our society in public health, education, religion, medi• amounts—those resulting in b.a.cs of enhances the need to bring social science cal treatment, welfare, etc., only in the last less than 0.08 percent, concentrations re• data and analysis from their unbalanced two or three years can a change be seen. sulting from one to four drinks. The and often backward position, at least What knowledge, what experience, what social response network to drinking-driv- up to a par with the pharmacologic and models for asking questions and for form• ing problems is in many ways reaching engineering disciplines. ing policy are available? In relation to down from 0.15 percent to 0.06 percent The need for data, analysis, and im• alcoholism, to drunkenness, and, to a b.a.cs and in its preventive programs it aginative theory about the social response lesser extent, to the problems of formal continues on down to anything over zero. network is perhaps the most compelling. education about alcohol for youth, there The social scientists on their own, and Without informed and insightful prepara• are studies about existing networks of now from experimental psychologists as tion on this level, any advances in any relevant attitudes, procedures, and or• well, are learning that the conclusions discipline are of dubious value. Objective ganizations and about the introduction given them over the past 20 years or evaluation of any effort at control Is the of programs. There is little or nothing more about the effects of smaller concen• hall-mark of rational applications. In the of a disciplined nature in the alcohol- trations of alcohol are very suspect in• field of attacks on drinking-driving-dam- highway damage field for this country. deed. Carpenter has outlined this problem age, it has been conspicuously absent. It is quite clear that studies are needed in some detail. This area of Individual Finally, what is the rationale for select• about the attitudes and relevant behaviors psychology is of such significance to the ing the alcohol-affected part of the whole of many categories of people in relation social scientist that the need for work on driving-damage phenomenon for special to all sorts of programs dealing with dev• mis matter receives high priority. Of simi• consideration? Four different sorts of rea• iations from norms of driving, especially lar importance is the need for research on son will be stated: (1) it is one of the those associated with use of alcohol. First the effects of combinations of alcohol most backward of all the programs to and foremost this will deal with what and other drugs on drivers. attack traffic damage and offers potential• may be called the power structures and In summation, it can be stated that ly a greater increment of success for opinion leadership categories to be found social science has done very little of direct amount of energy expended in attack; in communities. relationship to the problem popularly (2) it is very obviously of greatest signi• Certainly the two groups chiefly con• called traffic accidents and alcohol. What ficance In the most dramatic category of cerned—the drinkers and the drivers— has been done is largely limited to social driving-damage fatalities; (3) it is a highly should be studied as to their levels of pathology. On the other hand, social distinctive, concretely measurable factor tolerance of driving deviation and then- science has so developed over the past —In this fashion far superior for purposes levels of positive approval of preventing, 50 years mat it possesses orientation, of both analysis and control to such intan• ameliorating, and controlling action. theory, and methodology which are clear• gibles as fatigue or immaturity; and (4) ly pertinent. In one of the two major the climate of attitude in American society Perhaps more immediately obvious are both for analysis and also for social con• the attitudes of defense lawyers and pro• areas of custom involved, use of alcohol beverages, there is a formidable body of trol has changed in the past two to four secutors, of judges and police officers, years for alcohol problems of all sorts. of automobile clubs and temperance knowledge and theory. In the other area societies, of alcohol beverage retailers of custom, however, there is very little. The stigma covering all study and all and those certain tourist and commercial On the pathologic side, there is a good rational plans for control has begun to recreational groups, of teachers of driv• deal of information about accidents, but it erode, and the avoidance of the subject ing, of all of those directly concerned. is only partially in the social science orien• so characteristic for all groups in the Change in modes of control, let alone tation. Social science studies of the com• society is being replaced by serious moti• changes in the initiating problem be• bination or overlap custom— that of drink• vation to bring these no longer tolerable havior, will only occur as mere are mea• ing and driving—have just started to problems under control. The alcohol surable changes in the activities and atti• appear. Studies of the pathologic aspect traffic accident problem is one of these. tudes of these crucial categories. of this double phenomenon, the drinktng- The social sciences have avoided this One final topic should be discussed. It driving-damage case, especially by non- subject matter for a long time. They have was noted that social science, dealing as social scientists, have become increasing• a very real potential for contributing to it does with supra-individual phenomena, ly sophisticated. The network of social more effective resolutions. They are on necessarily relies upon the product of responses to the drinking-driving-daniage the verge of being able to realize this sciences dealing with the individual. In phenomenon has not been studied by contribution. Their first step will comprise this particular subject matter of driving social scientists; however, models and the selective, disciplined, and intensive as it converges with drinking, the social methodology for just such study are accumulation of basic social science data scientists need to have knowledge of the available. Finally, the essential pre-social about the damaging behavior and about effects of alcohol upon behavior. science field of disciplined study of the the relevant social response systems. W\

19 WE DRIVE AS WE LIVE

pay me $1.50. How many of you would Presented by Ward Edwards, Ph.D., Pro• be willing to accept that bet? How many fessor, Department of Psychology, Head, would be willing to offer that bet to Industrial Psychology Laboratory, Insti• someone else? Well, the probability of tute of Science and Technology, The Uni• three heads is 1 in 8, and so the pro• versity of Michigan. His research team bability of not getting three heads is 7 consisted of Vivian Lipman, Ph.D., Asso• in 8. Now, how do we use these numbers ciate Professor, Department of Psy• to make a decision? In this case the chology, University of Illinois; Gustav J. expected value, or average value, of the Rath, Ph.D., Professor, Department of act is what counts. What is the expected Industrial Engineering, Northwestern value of rejecting the bet? Obviously, it University; J. Robert Newman, Ph.D., is 0. So, if we adopt a policy of always Associate Professor, Department of Psy• taking the act with the largest expected chology, Long Beach State College; David value from among those available, we Schum, Ph.D., Associate Professor, De• should reject this bet. partment of Psychology, Rice University. In the 18th century, a Russian math• ematician named Daniel Bernoulli argued I must begin by telling you that I am a that it must be wrong to say that a fraud. You are probably reading this to rational man will maximize expected learn about research on decision-making value. He then went on to point out as it relates to highway safety. that the millionth dollar you obtain adds People pass on blind curves at 75 mph a much smaller increment to your happi• because they decide to. They run red ness than the hundredth, and he urged lights and stop signs because they decide that what you really want to maximize to. They fail to believe the abundant is this subjective desirability of money, evidence that shows they endanger them• not the money itself. selves and others when they drive after Borrowing a word and an idea from ten drinks. They fail to process that in• philosophers like Jeremy Bentham and formation properly. John Stuart Mill, Bernoulli proposed that But I don't plan to talk about studies men should maximize expected utility, of drivers processing information and where utility is subjective value. And making decisions about driving. My rea• that idea has remained the key idea on son for not doing so is simple and com• the value side of decision theory. pelling: I know of only two or three such Every decision depends on a man's studies, and not one fits into an intellec• judgments about what's at stake; in an• tual pattern that might point toward im• alyzing the decision, we should start with proved highway safety. a payoff matrix. But the entries in the Having admitted that no worthwhile payoff matrix should be subjective, not literature exists on my topic, perhaps I objective quantities. ought to stop. And if the sole purpose of Now, what about odds? Just how at• this were to report on the results and tractive is it to pass that slow truck that implications of past research, perhaps I is keeping you down to 40 mph on a would stop, even though shutting up is winding two-lane mountain road, when rare behavior for college professors. you'd much rather be doing 70? And how But as I understand it, I am supposed unattractive are the consequences that to point toward future research needs will ensue if you do try to pass and and to sketch possible directions relevant there's a car coming the other way hidden research might go, as well as to report around a curve? on past research. For a very long time, scientists didn't If driver information processing and think very clearly about this topic. We decision-making are important to highway all know about probabilities, and recog• safety, but unstudied, how can we study nize that any man who sets prices and them, what questions should we study, terms for insurance, or even participates what kinds of answers might we hope to in a poker game without a good basic find out, and what ideas should we use in understanding of probabilities, will in all trying to understand our findings? probability lose his shirt. Yet for many First, instead of talking about driving, years scientists tended to think that many I am going to talk about gambling. Con• questions about which we are uncertain sider the following bet. I will toss a coin are nevertheless not subject to analysis three times. If it comes up heads all three in terms of probabilities. times, I will pay you $10. If not, you will Now if probabilities happen to be opin-

20 Some drivers make decisions that further their safety. Some drivers decide to take risks that endanger themselves and others. What is the difference? Future research may find answers to this question

ions, then a hitherto obscure idea taken And it is the odds or probabilities as a receive the resulting pot. If I were or• from the inner recesses of probability person estimates them, not as a statisti• ganizing such a lottery right now, I won• theory comes to have a new importance. cian might calculate them, that the person der how many would be willing to par• The idea is named Bayes' theorem, after combines with the stakes in order to come ticipate. Now, consider a slightly different a British clergyman named Bayes, who up with the subjective expected utilites. lottery. All participants will give me their dabbled in probability theory and con• And those subjective expected utilites names, and again I will choose one name vinced the great 18th century mathema• are what he maximizes in making his at random. That unlucky fellow will pay tician LaPlace that he understood the decisions. a dollar to each of the other participants. theorem, even though he never explicitly That is a very broad and sketchy outline Now I wonder how appealing that lottery stated it. of the modem psychological theory of sounds. What you have illustrated here The reason it is important is that it decision-making, a theory that fits very is that people tend to seek large gains specifies how these opinions, called prob• well the actual behavior of decision and avoid large losses more or less re• abilities, should be revised in the light of makers. The remainder of this article will gardless of the numerical details. new evidence. Any revision of opinion be devoted to speculation about some The fact that a good many of you would in the light of new evidence is a funda• possible applications inferred from the be willing to pay a small fee for a chance mental human activity. Sometimes we foregoing theory. to win a large prize is consistent with call it learning, sometimes we call it First, what are the characteristics of a the argument that it is the size of the thinking, sometimes we call it attitude potentially dangerous driving decision, prize, not its probability, that is important formation or attitude change. Whatever from a decision-theoretical point of view? to you. Hie general reluctance to accept we call it, we do it all the time, and so Almost without exception, such decisons the near-certainty of receiving a dollar, knowledge of how it should be done is involve a very small probability of a very if along with it comes a non-zero chance important. great penalty, and a near-certainty of a of paying out some much larger sum, fits But I have discovered something in small gain. By pmyfltg and enforcing well with the conclusion that people pre• tests I have made with more than 1,000 traffic laws, we attempt to turn this situa• fer to avoid, if possible, any chance of subjects—tests made in a very large tion into one in which three possibilities. significant loss. Yet it is this second form variety of situations. People are conser• exist: a very small probability of disaster, of lottery, the form you avoided, that vative information processors. By that a somewhat higher but still quite small most nearly resembles the lottery accept• I mean that their prior opinions, what• probability of a much less severe legal ed by the risk-taking driver. ever these may be, are not as easily penalty, and a high probability of a very Is there an inconsistency between your changed by new data as they should be. small gain. But to keep what follows behavior and his? I think not. I see Further and much more complicated simple, I shall talk as though a risky several differences between this unpopu• research—which I don't want to describe driving decision either succeeds complete• lar lottery and the far more popular lot• —shows that the reason people are con• ly or else leads to a severe accident.. teries that so many of us, including me, servative informatioc processors is not No one has studied exactly such situa• participate in on the highways. The most that they fail to evaluate the meaning tions in the laboratory, for the obvious important difference, I believe, is simply of each separate Item of information reason that no responsible scientist could that the expected values of the lotteries properly. It is rather that they fail to afford to conduct an experiment in which you just finished considering are both combine the separate data properly. They there is any possibility of disastrous con• zero, objectively speaking. I doubt if thelr aggregate evidence conservatively. This sequences for his subjects. But MrfaHng subjectively expected utilities are greatly suggests, as is indeed the case, that the data suggest a speculative conclusion different from zero. more evidence they have, the more con• about such situations. Let me start by On the highway, however, I believe servative they will be. stating the conclusion itself. After that that the bets accepted by drivers are And this, in turn, suggests a hypothesis I will present information and arguments typically, subjectively, quite favorable. about why it is so difficult to change to justify it That is, the sum of the products of the people's opinions by piling up item after The conclusion has to do with now to utilities and subjective probabilities of item of evidence contradictory to those educate or re-educate drivers to make the favorable possible outcomes substan• opinions. As advertisers long ago learned, safe decisions; The most effective way tially exceeds the sum of the products simply to recite the facts, no matter how to educate is to attempt to reduce the of the utilities and subjective probabilities relevant and conclusive they may be, value the drive attaches to the highly of the unfavorable possible outcomes. is a poor way to get people to change probable favorable outcomes of risky The reason, I believe, is simply that their opinions. They just can't put these drivers. The next most effective way to people fail to assess the negative value facts together properly. educate is to attempt to increase the of disaster to be as highly negative, as Now, how does this finding about in• driver's judged probability of a disastrous It really is. ference from evidence relate to what I outcome. And the least effective way to The conclusion would suggest that try• - have already said about decision making? educate is to attempt to make the driver's ing to educate people about the high It does so in a very simple way. Human assessment of the negative value of an subjective cost of accidents would be a assessment of what's at stake is often accident still more negative. good thing to do. But I doubt it. The quite good. Human assessment of odds, Let's try an experiment here. Consider reason, I believe, that people fail to as• or probabilities, on the other hand, is a lottery. All those who wish to parti• sess the costs properly is simply that insufficiently influenced by the evidence cipate will contribute SI apiece, and I people cannot understand, ahead of time, that should control those judgments. will choose one participant at random to the subjective cost of an accident. If this

21 is so, then it is probably not worthwhile maneuvers in traffic are satisfying if suc• favorable consequences, and there is some to try to change their behavior by mani• cessful in the same sense that winning a experimental evidence in favor of this pulating that particular value. competitive game is satisfying. All these view. Consider next the phenomenon of hu• values, and many more, may be at least Whatever your judgments of the prob• man conservatism in information process• as important as i saving time. ability that you could drive a certain ing. People fail to extract from available Of course the rewards for driving after distance in half an hour without getting information bearing on probabilities near• drinking or driving without a license a ticket or having an accident, you might ly as much certainty as the information when the alternatives are a taxi or a long judge that probability as greater if you justifies. How does this fact relate to walk, are self-evident and large. knew that someone was going to hand highway safety? How can we go about decreasing the you $500 for making it unscathed within Any advertising executive would laugh values associated with these rewards? the time, limit. This, if so, would be of at attempts to reduce smoking, or bad There are many ways, from controlling the greatest importance in explaining un- driving, by presenting factual information the timing on traffic lights to controlling realistic judgments of driving about the probability of unpleasant con• the riding characteristics of cars. Educa• probabilities. sequences. A typical advertiser's slogan tional and information-giving procedures Now I have been speculating about is "Don't sell the steak, sell the sizzle." are also relevant. What to do in detail the influenece of driver judgments of As I see' it, this slogan suggests not one along those lines, I don't know. The value and probability on driver decision• but two ideas about how to change atti• purpose of my argument is to focus at• making. Obviously the reason I speculate tudes. For one thing, you should concen• tention on the positive values gained from is because I have nothing better to do. trate on experience directly meaningful successful risky driving as especially im• There are no data. But there should be. to the target person, preferably sensory portant, and also perhaps, to look into Such studies should not at least to start experiments, and not on abstractions like the especially manipulable aspects of the with, be directed toward changing driver probability. For another thing, you driver decision process. behavior. They should be directed to• shouldn't try to change opinions. Instead, But if human beings are conservative ward establishing the effectiveness of the try to change value judgments. information processors, isn't information theory that explains other decisions in The last conclusion sounds contradic• that's designed to change values likely to explaining driver decisions. tory to what I have just said. I argue be as Ineffective as information designed The next step after that is to study, now that one should try to change value to change probabilities? I don't know. both very abstractly and in more driving• judgments. A moment ago I was saying The research, needed to answer the ques• like situations, the kinds of values, prob• that it is probably not worthwhile to try tion hasn't been done, and is in fact very abilities, and value-probability combina• to change judgments of the value of an difficult to do. But the experience of tions that seem most important in con• accident. But there is no real contradic• advertisers suggests that values may be trolling driver decisions, I am thinking tion. The negative value of an accident much easier to change than probabilities. here especially of the combination of low is so far outside normal experience that We ought to find out. probability and very high negative value, only its large negative size matters. There is still another decision-theoreti• of course. Changes in it of size sufficient to change cal reason, more abstract than the ones I The next step is to assess methods of behavior are likely to be extraordinarily have already given, for regarding the changing driver value and probability difficult to produce. reward for successful risky driving as judgments, without special concern for But decision making depends on all the most important quantity to try to whether these methods are practical for the entries in the payoff matrix, not just i change. So far, I have argued that that widespread use. Only after all that more on one. And the entry in the payoff reward may be easiest to change, while or less basic research has been done will matrix that has the most important in• the subjective cost of a bad accident may we be in a good position to apply the fluence on driver decisions simply be• be hardest to change. But even if all ideas and facts so obtained to the actual cause it is most probable, is the favorable three relevant quantities were equally design of practical procedures for mani• one, not the unfavorable one. A 20 per• easy to change, it would still be best to pulating driver decision-making. cent decrease in the value of the reward change the reward for successful risky Let me conclude, then, by underlying for a successful risky driving decision driving, and least effective to change the the premises that I started with. Driver would, I believe do more toward deterring subjective cost of an accident. decision-making is not special or unique. the risk-taking behavior undertaken in Now I would like to turn briefly to a Men make decisions when driving in the seeking it than any possible increase in different decision-theoretical issue. The same way that they make any other de• the subjective cost of the disaster. probabilities underlying driving decisions cisions. A good, though severely incom• What is the reward for dangerous driv• are frequently under the partial control plete, general theory of human decision• ing? We tend, somewhat casually, to as• of the driver himself. Research indicates making exists. sume that it is the time saved. If so, that in such situations probability judg• The first research task in using this evidence of how little time is actually ments may behave quite differently from theory should be to exhibit its relevance saved by such driving would be very ef• such judgments in less controllable situa• to driving decisions and to elaborate fective in changing behavior. But other tions. Psychologists have theorized about those aspects of it that are underresearch- values may be important too. such situations fairly extensively, but I ed and especially relevant to driving. I know that I will often try to pass a don't find anything in these theories that Only by fitting the findings into such car that is actually driving about the seems directly relevant to this discussion a larger body of theory can research on speed I want to drive, simply because I of driver decision making. But the re• specific driver decisons be made mean• prefer a clear road ahead of me to a search inspired by these theories is not ingful, and it is from such a body of constant vista of a car's backside. And generally focused on probability judg• theory that effective applications can be we all know that there is much sensory ment as such. most successfully derived. pleasure in driving, pleasure that in• A theory exists that argues that people creases continuously with increasing will overestimate probabilities associated speed till 70 mph or so is reached, for with favorable consequences and under• typical Detroit cars. Finally, aggresive estimate probabilities associated with un•

22 LEGAL CURBS ON DRIVERS LEGAL CURBS ON DRIVERS

A third and final effect, particularly failure. We don't know how successful we Presented by Roger C. Cramton, J.D., important in the field of highway safety, are in deterring unsafe (accident-produc• professor of law, University of Michigan rests upon the notion that fear and moral ing) driving by penalizing traffic offenders. Law School Research team members: influence, especially if instilled at an Much more precise knowledge is needed Guido Calbresi, M.A., professor of law, early age, may create unconscious inhi• before we can conclude how effective our Yale University; Robert E. Keeton, S.J.D., bitions which make lawful and desired present system of control is on moving professor of law, Harvard University; behavior habitual behavior. violations and how it could be improved. Richard O. Lempert, M.A., research asso• ciate, the University of Michigan Law Thus the deterrent effect of legal sanc• It Is sometimes argued that deterrence School; Albert J. Reiss, Ph.D., professor tions Is not entirely dependent upon a is likely to be ineffective in controlling and chairman of the department of sociol• Benthamite model of rational human be• negligent as distinct from intentional be• ogy and director of the Center for Re• havior—the avoidance of pain and the havior; and that the complexity of the search on Social Organization at the Uni• maximization of pleasure. Legal provi• driving task gives rise to a further limita• versity of Michigan; Stanton Wheeler, sions and their applications may have an tion on deterrent possibilities. Ph.D., sociologist, Russell Sage Founda• effect even on those unaware of them. While it is obvious that the legal com• tion, New York; Hans Zeisel, J.D., pro• These general influences, of course, are mand in traffic regulation, sometimes fessor of Law, University of Chicago; highly variable depending upon such fac• hardly less general than "drive safely", Frank E. Zimring, JJ>., assistant prof es- tors as the nature of the offense (e.g., it is very different from the simple injunc• sor of taw, University of Chicago; and is more difficult to deter highly-motivated tion not to do a prohibited act that re• Allan M. Dershowitz, L.L.B., professor behavior than less highly-motivated be• quires conscious effort, this difference of law, Harvard University. havior); the personality and characteris• does not justify a conclusion that deter• tics of individuals in the community; and rence will not work. Standards of care are the reinforcement of counterpressures effectively enforced in industry, transpor• Human behavior, including mat related stemming from the general environment tation, and many other contests by intense to the motorist, can be influenced by legal and the subgroups to which an individual policing and meaningful penalties. sanctions oh the driver. owes his immediate loyalty and affection. The role of legal deterrence is to instill The crucial questions that need more Apart from these general variables, ef• habitual modes of performance in compli• specific and detailed answers are: (1) Who fectiveness of a legal sanction is thought ance with nuhimal standards. Presumably can be influenced, under what circum• to depend upon two fundamental factors: if a driver has fallen into bad habits (or stances or conditions, and to what degree? (1) the perceived risk of detection, appre• failed to develop good ones) a violation (2) What costs and side effects do the ap• hension, and conviction; and (2) the se• will make him aware of his deficiency. A plication of legal sanctions entail? (3) verity of the penalty. more frequent and relatively benign oc• What other modes of compliance are avail• There is widespread agreement that the currence (the violation) is substituted for able, and what results would they pro• first factor (the apprehension rate) Is a the undesired but unlikely hazard (the ac• duce, and at what cost? more significant one than the second, al• cident) that becomes more likely if bad Legal scholars have summarized the though here again differences among per• driving habits are not corrected. Once the reasons why the imposition of a legal sons and social classes may vary this gen• driver is aware of his deficiency, a process sanction may effect the behavior of the eral conclusion. Overly severe penalties of self-correction presumably takes place; population to whom it is addressed. also encounter a rebound effect which habitually correct performance gradually First the existence of a legal command affects deterrence by reducing the con- replaces the conscious awareness and cor• has a moral and educative influence. Many viction rate; enforcement officials, judges, rection of deficiency. persons want to do what is right, and and juries will be reluctant to prosecute The identification of alcohol as a leading they are obedient of the law even when or convict if the punishment is regarded factor associated with automobile acci• they disagree with its provisions. as too severe for the offense involved. dents (especially serious ones) warrants Second, other persons who are less The enforcement of parking regulations vigorous methods of regulatory control. responsive to moral persuasion may be is a situation in which deterrence is at its In theory, at least, American states have deterred because of fear of the conse• best In the absence of legal sanctions, a adopted methods of strict control: criminal quence. They make a rational choice not large portion of the community will vio• prohibitions of drunk driving carry rela• to engage in contemplated conduct be• late parking regulations at least occasion• tively severe penalties; presumptions of cause the risks of apprehension are too ally. Illegal parking is met by little moral intoxication based on chemical tests facil• great or the punishment is too severe or reprobation, and legal sanctions are nec• itate proof; and a growing number of both. This effect will be operative—in essary to regulate parking behavior. A states have adopted implied consent stat• fact it may be enhanced—by imperfect system of fines and costs is employed. utes that require the driver, on pain of knowledge of the objective apprehension A number of studies indicate the dra• losing his license, to submit to a chemical rate or the severity of the punishment matic effectiveness of legal sanctions in test of intoxication. actually meted out to offenders. controlling illegal parking. Increments of Nevertheless, the feeling persists that It is the individual's perception of these either the apprehension rate or the level enforcement is lax and that the potential factors, rather than the objective circum• of fines or costs will produce measurable effectiveness of legal control on motor stance itself, mat deters, presenting the reductions in illegal parking. violations has not been achieved. possibility, mat educational campaigns Unlike enforcement of parking regula• Enforcement officials tend toward the may lead members of the community to tions, it cannot be confidently asserted view that what is needed is more and bet• believe that legal sanctions are more either that the present system of traffic ter enforcement: more traffic police; bet• threatening than they really are- enforcement is a success or that it is a ter detection techniques such as roaming

24 What has and has not worked—on whom, where, and why check lanes and wholesale breath-testing, tion of the populace will be kept off the available. This also is an appropriate sub• and stricter penalties. roads on this basis. ject for further study. While I believe that better detection Merit rating plans and safe driver re• The ultimate sanction of the licensing techniques should be explored (including bates, in effect in Great Britain for many authorities is to withdraw the driver's widespread breath-testing) I do not think years and increasingly popular in this license. The sanction is somewhat perverse increased severity will accomplish any• country, offer deterrent possibilities that in that a driver can hardly improve his thing barring a monumental—and unlike• need study in this country. skills while legally unable to drive. ly—change in public attitudes. The regu• Thus far for the most part I have dealt The unstated premise of the licensing latory control of drinking and driving in with the general deterrent effects of traf• authorities is that problem drivers have the United States is rather lax precisely fic laws. I now turn to a brief considera• bad. attitudes rather than bad skills; and because the social climate does not favor tion of the effects on the offender of being that a more serious punishment will en• more stringent controls. It is suspected processed by the system, often referred to courage them to approach driving in a that stiffer penalties will merely lead to as special prevention or special deterrence. more responsible manner. Whether or not more difficulty in enforcement. Except for a small number of serious traf• this premise is correct, it is fairly clear To what extent is the drinking-driving fic offenders (drunk driving, negligent that many individuals whose, attitude to• problem one of problem drinking? Can homicide, driving after license suspension ward driving was unresponsive to earlier the involved groups of alcoholics be iden• or revocation, etc.), punishment consists and lighter treatment are also unwilling tified in advance of fatal or other acci• of a system of fines and costs phis the to sit out a period of license suspension. dents? Can adequate treatment facilities triggering of actions by licensing officials More accurate data is needed, but there be established and staffed? These ques• when violations or accident records attain are indications that a large majority of per• tions desperately need attention; and at• certain high levels. sons whose licenses are suspended or re• tempted solutions will need public support. The Traffic Court Program of the Amer• voked continue to drive. Even if that is It seems more likely to me that the ican Bar Association has sought, in con• the case, of course, suspension may have deterrent effects of civil liability whatever junction with state and federal authorities, demonstrable effects: individual driving their magnitude, are much more likely to to upgrade the quality of traffic-court under suspension may limit their driving be found in the operation of the automo• justice. One of the objectives of the pro• In amount and they may drive more care• bile insurance system. The violation or gram is that a traffic offense of any fully during such periods because of the accident that triggers a dramatic increase seriousness should lead to a court appear• likelihood of harsh treatment if caught. in a driver's insurance rate may lead him ance in which a traffic court judge, prose• In many ways, highway safety is an ideal to seek to improve his record in order to cuting attorney, police witness, and the area for controlled experiments in the ap• regain a lower rate. suspect will consider with dignity and plication of legal sanctions. The moral As it becomes known that bad driving fairness the accusation. The underlying content of traffic violations is very low; records result in higher insurance costs, a premise is that an adjudication of guilt and public and administrative attitudes general deterrent effect may result. Up• under such circumstances will have an ed• toward the problem are regulatory and ra• ward or downward variation of insurance ucative influence on the offender and, in tional in character. The penalties tend to rates predicated on driver behavior may any event, will increase his respect for the be mild and non-punitive; and experimen• also release family pressures that other• law in general. tation with intensity of enforcement, levels wise might not be operative: a teenager's I think it doubtful that traffic courts of penalization, and types of rehabilitive fender-denting, if substantially higher in• adjudications will have the effects indi• treatment is as rationally related to safety surance costs are now imposed on the cated. The required court appearance in• objectives as in health research. family unit, may lead to forms of parental creases the severity of the consequence Moreover, officials exercise at present a supervisions that may affect the amount to the driver, whether or not he is guilty, large degree of discretion on these matters and manner of the teenager's driving. and causes irritation; unless the driver is (enforcement, sentencing, and treatment) The insurance system also offers one provided with free counsel and given a and the degree of variation in treatment of the only mechanisms for utilizing re• fair opportunity to defend, an outcome at present is so large that the temporary wards in addition to penalties. Learning to that we hardly want to stimulate artificially inequalities caused by, experiments are conform to particular standards of behav• given the high cost of such proceedings almost too insignificant for notice, espe• ior, the psychologists tell us, is enhanced and their small stakes, the proceeding will cially when their purpose is the elimina• if, in addition to penalizing improper res• appear to the driver as one in which the tion of the ad hoc discretion that is now ponses, proper responses are rewarded. traffic policeman's word is always accepted so prevalent on such matters as enforce• An insurance system which places the in preference to his. Placing the driver in ment, sentencing and treatment costs of hazardous driving behavior on the framework of defending his conduct Whether or not the safegurads of "test• those who engage in it would tend to re• is likely to lead him to rationalize it rather ing down" and of random selection will ward good drivers and punish bad ones. If than to consider objectively his defects as prove adequate in other areas, they would groups of bad drivers were required to pay a driver; nor is the traffic court equipped seem sufficient in highway safety. the full costs of their activities, some of to offer him specific assistance that may them might be removed from the road for improve his driving skill for the future. inability to obtain insurance that they These doubts, however, are not sup• could afford; the pressures of insurance ported by empirical data. To my know• regulation, however, are egalitarian in ledge the effectiveness of traffic court tendency, and it would be unrealistic, even programs in rehabilitating drivers has if wise, to think that any substantial por• never been studied and no Information is

25 THE METAMORPHOSIS TURNING FACTS INTO FACTORS

Research is the one sure road to change. But even when the directions are clear, the way is slow and tortuous We want to ask who constitutes the Presented by Ronald G. Havelock, Ph.D., audience for highway safety knowledge. Project Director, Center for Research on If we start with the driver we see im• the Utilization of Scientific Knowledge, mediately a large number of different Institute for Social Research, University audiences even within this driver group. of Michigan. His staff was composed of But let us list some of the potential Thomas Hartford, Ph.D., Research Social drivers who could be targets and I think Psychologist, Veterans Administration, you will see the problem of changing the Boston, Mass.; Marjorie J. Hill, Ph.D., behavior of these populations will be Research Fellow, Harvard Medical School, quite different. We have the general driver Harvard University; Charles W. King, and perhaps with him we should include D.B.A., Associate Professor, Department the pedestrian and the passenger as people of Industrial Administration, Purdue Uni• who are immediately affected by accidents. versity, Lafayette, Ind.; Haldon L. Smith, Then within the driver group we know M.S., Research Engineer, Industrial De• there are classes of drivers who cause velopment Division, Institute of Science a disproportionately large "number" of ac• and Technology, University of Michigan. cidents. The question is whether or not a major utilization effort should be fo- cussed on these groups. No doubt, you have been impressed as I have with available research in the area With this focusing on specific groups of highway safety. Perhaps you are be• of drivers, we accomplish more than ident• ginning to wonder why, if we know so ification of our audience. We begin to es• much, we don't have safer highways. tablish priorities in terms of 1) What There is no simple answer to this question. groups are most important to be influened; Utilization is difficult and slow and it is 2) What groups are most subject to in• a persistently under-rated problem. All fluence; and 3) What groups are most too often we assume relevant information influential. These questions all relate to will be adopted, but this is not the case. where should we put our effort? We need Studies of the spread of new ideas indi• to establish a priority of goals. We need cate periods anywhere from years to cen• to develop some measure of cost effec• turies are likely to elapse before innova• tiveness, that is, the reduction of accidents tions come into use. per unit of cost. Even as our process of knowledge build• To give a better idea of how we might ing has become efficient, we have allowed start to compute such cost effectiveness the process of diffusing knowledge to measures, let's consider three questions. remain a primitive art. But now there "Who is most important to influence?" are some signs that some scientists are There are some classes of drivers, who researchers, applying the principles of have a high degree of accident proneness. scientific method to the study of utili• It would appear that if we could influence zation. I will give a brief overview of the these groups, we would be getting a lot process which I believe represents a con• of safety for the money. sensus of opinion among researchers as "Who is the most subject to influence:" to what the problem areas are. Who is most ready to listen? Here we The first component I will mention have an ironic situation. Those who tend only briefly. I have left it to other speak• to be most subject to influence need the ers to present what might be solutions information least. The people who are to highway safety problems. We will as• ready to listen to safety messages are like• sume there are solutions and that our ly to be safer drivers to start with. Never• problems will be changed depending on theless, these people are a good target the nature of the solution. group for any communication because, for the amount of our effort, we get Some of these groups are more able to about the processes of communication. a may!"'""! utilization by the audience. be influenced and are more influential Let's turn, then, to another aspect of There is a subsidiary question here than the classes of drivers listed earlier. that problem which we could call the which concerns the accessibility of the Moreover, certain types of information social process of utilization—the move• audience. An intensive training program simply aren't relevant to the driver. ment of knowledge from one person to requires a captive audience, an audience Often, even when a communication has another. Earlier we identified communi• which can be held in one place for an relevance to the general public, it needs cation targets and considered which were extended period of time. There are some to be understood first by practitioners. optimum for a particular kind of Infor• groups in our society who are particularly Sometimes several approaches should be mation. We also viewed this question of accessible from this point of view. employed in concert: one. directed to the opinion leadership. Now the third question is: "who are mass of people, let us say on the safety I think it can be stated now more the most influential? Who are the people value of seat belts; another directed to emphatically that the primary way in who have the power to influence the mechanics, telling how to install these which new ideas get diffused to any behavior of other people?" belts in cars; and a third to government group or any individual is tkrpvgh social We have considerable data from other regulators so that they can create new influence. This does not mean that elec• fields which may be relevant to highway standards for their insertion In vehicles. tronic media or other mechanisms are safety. The clearest finding we have in• Let us look at the details of the change not ingredients to be considered. But dicates mass media communications are process. First of all there is a transmission primarily we live in a culture controlled Influential primarily with people who process, almost a technical process of by interpersonal processes. could be called "opinion leaders." Opinion getting information across. This could be I mentioned earlier the two step flow leaders are influential as they communi• through radio, television, books, maga• of communication whereby the opinion cate with others through informal chan• zines, or through conferences or training leader is first influenced by medial and nels. Leaders determining the opinions of courses or training packages, or bill• then he, in turn, is able to personally the majority. Many researchers have rec• boards, and so forth. influence others. Almost automatically ommended that change strategies be di• The second process that I have listed we ask ourselves, "Well, what are the other rected at those individuals who are known here is the developing of an understanding people doing?" to be most influential. of what is being said. After a message Those who plan strategies for knowledge In the United States the father controls reaches the eyes and ears of the receiver, utilization cannot change the individual access to new information on financial he must still develop a reasonable ac• without phfl"g*"g the systems in which matters and on planning and buying a curate image of what the sender is trying he is embedded. Practically any kind of home, or car financing. The wife controls to transmit. communication involves not only the in• such matters as buying clothes, food, We find, again using the seat belt as dividual but the entire social system of eating habits, and the maintenance of the a case in point, that even when individuals which he is a part household, including safety. Research has believe that belts add to safety, they still A review of improvements in highway shown that influencing one leader may may not go to that all-important act of safety from 1920 to 1965 may give some be a key to influencing the entire group. buckling up when they get in the car. idea of the rate at which change came This idea may apply to driving. A person may have understanding and about through the process I have de• I have given you some idea of potential acceptance, but his acceptance has, not scribed. Although our instinct may be audiences: the general driver, specific been translated into behavior. Without to say there has been no great improve• classes of drivers, and others who are this we do not have utilization. ment, a few moments thought will make us influential with drivers. But there are a We have research on attitude change, realize that, at least on a per mile basis, large number of potential audiences who relevant to the problem of acceptance. there has been tremendous Improvement. have not been mentioned at all. These We have research on the transmission Not only have the roads radically im• are professionals in the transportation of information and we have evidence proved but so has the automobile and the field, those who are directly concerned in educational psychology on understand• driver. Now these changes came about with safety as a part of their occupational ing. We have data in psychology on the through a natural and complex process roles. This includes legislators, automo• relationship between understanding, ac• which involved a number of groups: it bile manufacturers, insurance executives, ceptance, and behavior. Our knowledge involved people who designed cars; it safety experts, lawyers, road builders, about these last three processes badly involved feedback from people who bought communications people, and others. needs to be coordinated with what we know cars; it involved pressures on local and

27 cnangeia oiuwem irum wotmuavcuuicu is uiC' uiumniiftww/u ui uie gexiciiu puum. the "natural process," and It is different to highway safely information. this arrangement. because it ignores the fact that there are Let us turn now to a fourth example I think, then, that this is perhaps the stages, that there are different audiences, of the crisis approach to auto safety, core of so many of our errors in the and that there is a complex social system. a quite different approach and in some knowledge utilization process. There is Let us look at four examples of the sense a successful approach. In 1965, '66, a lack of realization that we are trying to crisis approach. First we have ale case and '67, major automobile makers were cross the barriers between two systems. of the Connecticut death toll of 1966. confronted by a Congressional investi• Now when we have two groups, and Connecticut is a state which has a rela• gating committee and by a couple of are trying to bridge between them, we tively small death toll per mile on the resourceful attorneys. As a result, we have many potential differences. That is, highways. Nevertheless, in 1956 there had our first significant federal legislation group A has the need, let us say, to be seemed to be a tremendous surge in controlling auto design. safe, and B fulfills that need, gives the death rates and the governor reacted by It appears to me that 1968 vehicles information, provides the service. I think saying that there must be a crackdown. are somewhat safer because of what hap• it is clear that for B to operate, B must He focused on the question of speed, pened in 1966. I want to propose that have some understanding of the need of noting the relatively high proportion of this was a crisis approach, and it fell A. And this is really where we come to fatal accidents which involve speed. victim to the same pitfalls that we find our realization of how essential the re• The solution was to create a penalty in other crisis approaches. ciprocal process is. for speeding by suspension of driving In particular there was a polarization of It is the differences between groups privilege for 30 days. The following year opinion. As a result, people who should which I really call the major roadblocks, there was a great reduction of fatal ac• be talking to each other and learning the social roadblocks of knowledge utili• cidents in Connecticut and the governor from each other are living in separate zation. If we were eager to give and to felt gratified at his solution. worlds. receive information across group bound• It was some years later that some re• From these examples of the crisis ap• aries, then we would certainly be utilizing searchers with scientific measurement proach we should learn some lessons. knowledge at a much more rapid rate. skills began to look at this data the First, we should realize that crisis does So I want to talk about how we can governor had looked at, and they came seem to spur action. Secondly, a crisis overcome these roadblocks. to the conclusion that the governor had does motivate people. We should not dis• Wherever we have overcome these social drawn conclusions which were dubious miss the importance of the "campaign" barriers we have done so in at least two when subjected to comparative analysis. spirit that keeps people going, that keeps kinds of ways. First we have done so In fact, 1955 for a variety of reasons safety workers encouraged and motivated. through key members who are in a po• was an exceptionally high year. The fol• On the other hand, these examples sition to pass new ideas and information lowing year, as one would usually expect point to four clearly negative conse• from one to the other. after a high year, was much lower and quences. First we have seen that some• Another procedure we have followed would have been much lower undoubtedly times a crisis approach can lead to er• for improving linkage between groups whatever the governor had done. roneous or wasteful action. Secondly, the is through special organizations, let's say I gather the British have done the same effects may be only temporary. Third, we the Insurance Institute for Highway Safe• thing now on alcoholism. They have had need to be wary of the immunization phe• ty, or they could be ad hoc meetings or a severe crackdown recently and managed nomenon. If we cry "wolf" every year, special projects or conferences like the to reduce drinking and the traffic death people may become immune to these pleas. one we are attending today. rate this year. As in Connecticut, they The fourth problem is that it creates I want to go on now to put these have picked an unusually high year as bitterness—particularly with people who elements together, but before I do, I a time to react and it is unclear whether are bypassed by those who want the want to review the points r have made or not it will have a lasting effect. quick solution. so far. I began by saying that utilization It is less clear what the real social That brings me back to the point I required a clear definition and under• effects on English life have been. Pub have been trying to stress, that knowledge standing of the audience. I then noted owners suffered greatly from it, but per• utilization really is a social system that utilization requires not just one but haps that is not a bad thing. Presumably problem. several kinds of processes which had to drinking habits have changed also, and Let me explain what we mean when be performed in sequence. perhaps that is a good thing. The data we say "social system." There is one I later noted another finding related to really isn't in yet on this social expert- characteristic of social systems that is this, that several kinds of inputs from dif-

28 ferent sources were not only desirable groups. Such an organization could do nation and utilization. It was a slow and but probably necessary. I also said that several things. It would provide an al• complicated process. Then I contrasted among these influences, social influence ternative to complete government regu• this natural process with the crisis ap• from within one's own group was most lation and control, and more positively proach and said that although there were powerful. This, you recall, led to the it could provide guidance to the govern• pitfalls, crises did sometimes succeed in concept of ,opinion leadership. ment. This group would do systematic speeding up the process. I then digressed to a discussion of planning of the total problem and could Well, now through research on utili• crisis as an attempt to speed up the sponsor research fitted into planning in zation I think we have a third alternative, process, noting the destructive conse• a meaningful way. It could provide a a way to speed up utilization while still quences on systematic relationships. This permanent forum for discussion of high• recognizing and accounting for natural led me to emphasize the interdependence way problems. Perhaps it could work processes. This third alternative I and shared ness of values, attitudes, and toward a reduction of the polarization we would like to call "the process of needs which is the essence of the term find between auto manufacturing and the planned change." "group." Interdependence between spokesmen for consumers. groups or between people can be achieved Let me close by making a special plea in numerous ways inchiding co-member• for yet a third strategy to utilize research ship and new organizations and temp• of the kind I am engaged in now, re• orary structures which bring together re• search on the process of knowledge dis• search, practitioners, and consumer semination and utilization. There is noth• representatives. ing mysterious about scientific research Now what is wrong with the highway or the way it is done. Research is sim• safety system? Well, first we might note ply the way of getting the most valid that university-based research is miniscule information. It allows policy makers to In contrast to the extent of the problem. make decisions based on fact and to e- There is very little university research, valuate the correctness of those decisions period, and the research that is done is, accurately. In short, research is the sure on the whole, poorly coordinated. Perhaps road to positive change. this is changing with (he formation of such One of the biggest problems in highway groups as Michigan's Highway Safety Re• safety is utilization. Once we have a search Institute. solution, we still have a long way to But a second problem with the system go before we can get people to adopt it. is that the major automobile manufac• But we can research this problem of tures, in order to keep costs down, have utilization Uke any other. If Mr. Average not gone as far as they could in the Citizen doesn't listen to the safety mes• application of new safety devices. It is a sage, we can find out why he doesn't, rule of all corporations that economic and we can change the message until self-interest must come first and that we find one he does listen to. interest in helping others must be seen The social system factors can also be in the light of self-interest. I might note studied. Is there a single study which on Quit point that the Insurance companies analyzes the relations between even any represent a strictly positive force here. two of the groups in the highway safety A third difference is the lack of co• picture? We need studies which analyze ordination among insurance, manufactur• the relationships among the several in• ing, legal and safety groups. volved groups, studies which can point What can we do to remedy the situation? to the gaps in the system, the areas In the first place I think we need a great where improvement could be accom• deal more of what I call temporary sys• plished easily, quickly, or cheaply. tems. By this I mean gatherings at which Experimental utilization studies could engineers, law enforcers, and researchers be very useful in telling us what kind and government people can get to know of new communication and cooperation each other and come to realize what strategies would help improve the system. they all have in common. It is important for us to know which ones Increased numbers of such gatherings work and which ones don't; which ones would be beneficial to all concerned: first we should have more of and which ones die government would know what was less. Very little of tins evaluation re• realistic in the way of regulation. In• search has been done, but there are peo• dustry and local government would know ple who can do it, and there is a great what was coming along in university need to have it done. research. They would get reasonable lead Scientific method and scientific princi• time on what government will later re• ples should be applied to all the important quire. University people would learn what decisions we make as a society. If we the needs are, as seen by people in in• define our goals and measure our pro• surance, industry, law enforcement, and gress toward those goals, there is vir• consumer protection. tually nothing we cannot accomplish as Secondly, there is a need for some human beings. sort of national highway safety organi• I have discussed what I called the zation which would include all interest "natural" process of knowledge dissemi•

29 SUMMING UP THE SYMPOSIUM

We have learned more about driver behavior—cause and effect. We have seen pieces of a pattern between the theoretical world of traffic safety and the real world of man-road-and-machine

By Hugh Miser, Vice-president, Travelers Let me remind you that the goals of That is to say, if you run an experiment Research Center and Chairman of the Re• this second Symposium have been very in New England and reproduce it in search Advisory Committee of the Insur• clear. One, we wanted to somewhat com• California, you should get similar results. ance Institute for Highway Safety. pile the principle body of behavior over Finally and — most important of all— research as related to motor vehicle use, the speakers showed in their papers that In Hartford a year ago, we discussed to determine what other research should to make progress at all, you've got to what we know and don't know about be applied to driver behavior, and to re• divide problems into manageable parts. highway safety and where responsibility port these findings in some way or other I'm sure all of us began to despair as lay for gaining the knowledge that is that could be mutually understood. the problem got divided into more and needed to solve some of the problems. Furthermore, we hope that through more parts. We began to lose track of the We explored how to organize to get our mutual efforts we can create public parts we had before. But nonetheless, this knowledge, and got some views of awareness of these findings and encour• we recognize that this is a vital charac• insurance leaders about these things. age some sort of acceptance in vari• teristic of the scientific process. At the conclusion of this year's Sym• ous communities. Since Jim O'Day started the Symposium posium I think we should not forget the Most of the spokesmen at this Sympo• with a beautiful slide, I would like to end context that we developed at the first sium were scientists, and have given with his slide, because it illustrates again one. You recall the classic three-phase what most of us consider to be an ab• how these papers tie together. part of the highway safety problem as solutely bewildering array of facts, con• You remember this slide. I'm sure we discussed by various speakers: the initia• jectures, opinions, and ideas. all thought it was complicated in the be• tion phase as part of the activity that Some of these have one logical status ginning, but each of the succeeding speak• occurs before you hit anything, the crash or another, but it seems to me that before ers began to take a piece of this slide phase, and the clean-up phase. we depart today, we should return to and show us how each little piece is Each of the parts has important and some idea of what the basic concept of really a lot more complicated than even vital aspects. Each one has important science is and somehow grade this context we had thought in the beginning. diagnoses and problems that we must of ideas so that we can get some sort of Professor Pelz took just the young cope with. And even though we turn judgment about how these can be placed driver and gave a lot of attention to him. here to driver behavior, I think we should in our own thinking. Professor Briggs took the driving pro• keep the points in mind. A scientist first observes a situation or cess, the performance block there, a little The focus of the second Symposium was problem, then analyzes it, and finally pre• piece of that, as you remember his terribly narrowed to the subject of the driver's dicts future behavior. Then, if he is an complicated chart which he read to us, involvement in the highway safety prob• honest man, he goes back and takes these and blew up a little piece of that. lem. Driver behavior—cause and effects predictions into the real world and sees Professor Edwards dealt with a very —was chosen because vehicle and road• if they've come true. We saw pieces of small piece of the performance and op• way factors seemed to be receiving major this pattern here at this conference. eration area by suggesting that the deci• attention by the programming of the new Our speakers illustrated three things sion-making process was something im• national highway safety system efforts. that are basic to the scientific process : portant. And, finally, Professor Cramton Almost eveybody felt last year that the and Mr. Havelock showed that this dia• driver behavior part was the hard part. (1) That you must look for stabilities gram is really a piece of a larger diagram. And we were perfectly willing to tackle that occur from one time to the next; The first of those factors that we've it even though the pay-offs were going (2) That you can count on these stabili• talked about here is alcohol. It doesn't to be longer and more difficult in coming. ties from one place to the next; and (3) seem to matter too much about all of the On the other hand, it was clear that it That you can apply them from one con• other complications that I've mentioned. has to be tackled, and we shouldn't wait text to the next. Alcohol seems to drive itself right through for 20 years, so let's get going on it now. You must look for reproductability. the woods and come out the other end

30 as an important factor. When it comes to "Reaction," I'm sure A second one which we are familiar those of you who have worked on the with is seat-belt use. It seems a good panels on the problem of reaction would thing to do, regardless how the other be willing to agree with me that, design• factors might come out. ing a carefully thought-out, effective re• On the other hand, most of the other action to knowledge is not as easy a job things that we've talked about wind up as might appear at first. In fact, this and get intertwined in the middle of that needs a lot of thought—more thought diagram somewhere: youth, skill, infor• than we could possibly give it here. mation-processing, decision-making, and Walter Chrysler was quoted in regard so on. So, in effect, where you put your to traffic safety as saying, "Don't do money on research and action depends anything suddenly." on how the factor you are thinking about I hope I'm interpreting that correctly entertwines in some model. when I say we should not go slowly but, However, don't forget that the goals of rather, take time to think about things this system are somehow or other to carefully before we do them. reduce human suffering, which includes In this connection, I think one needs reducing cost, not just preventing acci• to take the same attitude that Fowler's dents. After all, if we do have an accident, Modern Usage takes toward the split in• we like to survive it at minimum cost. finitive. The people in the world with And certainly we should want to re• respect to the split infinitive are divided member William Haddon's points, that into a number of classes: those who don't highway safety is embedded in the middle know about it and don't care; those who of a lot of other social problems we don't know and care very much; those must consider. who do know but don't give a damn; In summation then, in this conference, and finally those who know and we've learned some things that are so, distinguish. and our interests have been piqued by With respect to programs and highway many hypotheses and conjectures and safety, I think we want to be in that possibilities for learning things. latter category. We want to know as We've become aware that the scientists much as there is to be known and to have far less to tell us at this point than distinguish carefully. we might have hoped, although most of I don't know how many miles one us knew that they weren't going to solve drives today between disabling accidents, the highway safety problem for us here but it certainly must be between 75,000 and now. However, I would like to have and 100,000 miles, and there certainly are you look again at the conference motto. several million miles driven for every The first word is "Research." I think, fatal accident. under the title "research," that we do not The question is, isn't that pretty good? want to build our programs on highway I mean, drive a mile down the highway safety solely on opinion or solely on and think of all the hazards you've suc• speculation. We do want to be somewhere cessfully avoided, and then multiply that in this cycle with as many pieces filled by these really big numbers. in as are feasible for it. Aren't we doing pretty well? ' L-1 ( RESEARCH o Q s 5

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