DEC 2012 OE Threat Assessment: Iraq TRADOC G-2 Intelligence Support Activity (TRISA) Complex Operational Environment and Threat Integration Directorate (CTID) [Type the author name] United States Army 6/1/2012 OE Threat Assessment: Iraq Introduction Iraq was created after World War I from the three Ottoman Empire provinces Mosul, Baghdad, and Basra. Iraq has a history of political repression and instability, aggravated by ethnic and religious divisions and regional rivalries involving non-Arab Kurds in the north, a minority Sunni Arab ruling elite, and a majority Shia Arab population concentrated in the south. The Sunni minority maintained power, dating from the Ottoman Empire, until Saddam Hussein was ousted from power in 2003. Saddam Hussein took power in 1979 as the head of the Baath party and survived rebellions, coup plots, and international sanctions until 2003 by a complicated configuring and re-configuring of tribal alliances, often incorporating Shia into his confederations. In 2003 a coalition of countries led by the U.S. invaded Iraq and assumed responsibility for administering the country until sovereignty was transferred to an Iraqi Interim Government on 28 June 2004. In 2009 coalition forces withdrew from Iraqi cities, and their numbers were reduced to below 50,000 in August 2010. In December 2011, the U.S. withdrew the last of its troops after failing to negotiate a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA). Iraqis elected their first post-Saddam government on 15 December 2005 and a cabinet was formed in May 2006. The second parliamentary elections took place on 7 March 2010, and the current government was formed in December 2010. Political On 15 October 2005, the people of Iraq voted via a referendum to approve the current constitution, which proclaims Iraq to be republican, representative, parliamentary, and democratic. The government is composed of executive, legislative, and judicial branches, with numerous independent commissions. The legislative branch is composed of the 325 person elected Council of Representatives and a Federation Commission representing those from the areas and the governorates that are not organized in a region. The executive branch consists of the president, the prime minister, and the Council of Ministers. The federal judiciary has the Higher Judicial Council, the Supreme Court, the Court of Cassation, the Public Prosecution Department, the Judiciary Oversight Commission, and other federal courts that are regulated by law, such as the Central Criminal Court. The Constitution allows for the creation of other instruments of government. Some of the commissions under the monitoring authority of the Council of Representatives include the Independent High Commission for Human Rights, the Independent High Electoral Commission, and the Commission on Integrity. The Central Bank, the Board of Supreme Audit, the Communications and Media Commission, and the Endowment Commission are financially and administratively independent. Iraqi politics is driven by the interests of three distinct political/religious groups: a Shia majority, a Sunni minority, and the non-Arab Sunni Kurds. In addition to ideological differences, history has placed majorities of Kurds in the north, Shia in the south, and Sunni, who have since the 2 UNCLASSIFIED OE Threat Assessment: Iraq Ottoman Empire held the leadership of Iraq, in the center. After the Gulf War, the northern Kurdish region of Iraq, often referred to as Kurdistan, thrived economically due to a no-fly zone enforced by the U.S. and allied countries. Disputes over property and oil rights in the oil-rich Kurdish city of Kirkuk have caused significant tension between leaders in Kurdistan and the national government. Kurdish movements to secede from Iraq simmer and boil, leading to fears from Iraq’s neighbors who also have Kurdish minorities in their countries. The Shia majority, after decades of repression from Sunni minority governments, feel it is their time to be in charge. This has led to score-settling among some. The current political environment is strained and tenuous, at best. A power-sharing agreement was agreed upon in late 2010 after nine months of political wrangling. The agreement stated that Nouri al-Maliki, a Shia, remain the prime minister, Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, would assume the post of the mostly ceremonial president, and a Sunni would hold the position of Speaker of the Parliament. Fears among opposition parties are that Maliki is consolidating and concentrating power in his Shia party. Adding to the tension endemic in Iraqi politics is the conviction in absentia of the Sunni vice president, Tariq al-Hashimi, of ordering assassinations of political enemies. He is currently on the run with rumors that he may have found refuge among the Kurds in the north. Military The Iraqi military has been focused primarily on internal security and countering insurgencies. The Iraqi armed forces are made up mainly of the land army, with a small air force and a small navy. The army is largely composed of light infantry, with mechanized and armor elements. The air force has been moving to develop a strike capability and the potential to guard Iraq’s large borders. The navy, while small, is seen as having a crucial role in defense strategy as its mission involves the defense of Iraq’s only deep sea port at Umm Qasr and the country’s offshore oil platforms. Iraq has a significant special operations element. In 2007, several regional operational commands were activated by Prime Minister Maliki to enhance coordination between the Iraqi Army and National Police. Army The Iraqi ground forces command is overseen by the Joint Forces Command, under the control of the Iraqi National Command at the National Operations Center in Baghdad. This center is under the control of the Prime Minister, who is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces. Special Operations forces are under a separate command, the Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Service, which also reports to the Iraqi National Command. The Iraqi army consists of the following force configuration: 3 UNCLASSIFIED OE Threat Assessment: Iraq • 200,000 Regular army forces • 4,200 Counter-terrorism forces • 68,000 Training and support forces • 2,400 Army aviation forces Army Bases: • Al Kisik • Mosul • Rustamiyah • Numaniyah • Basrah • Ramadi • Diyala • Samarra • Habbaniyah • Taji • Kirkuk • Tallil • Kirkush • Tikrit Regular Army: • 9th Armoured Division (Taji) • 4th Division (Tikrit) o 34th Mechanised Brigade o 14th Brigade o 35th Armoured Brigade o 16th Brigade o 36th Armoured Brigade o 17th Brigade o 37th Cavalry Brigade o 48th Brigade • 1st Division (Habbaniyah) • 7th Division (Ramadi area) (Rapid response counter-insurgency o 26th Brigade force, trained for urban ops) o 27th Brigade o 1st Brigade o 28th Brigade o 2nd Brigade o 29th Brigade 3rd Brigade o o 4th Brigade Central Sector • 5th Division (Diyala Governate) o 21st Brigade o 18th Brigade o 105th Field Artillery o 19th Brigade Regiment o 20th Brigade 4 UNCLASSIFIED OE Threat Assessment: Iraq • 6th Division (Baghdad) • 17th Division (Mahmudiyah) o 22nd Brigade o 23rd Brigade o 24th Brigade o 25th Brigade o 54th Brigade o 55th Brigade 56th Brigade o • 11th Division (East Baghdad) o 42nd Brigade o 43rd Brigade Northern Sector • 2nd Division (Mosul) • 12th Infantry Division (Kirkuk) o 5th Brigade o 46th Brigade o 6th Brigade o 47th Brigade o 7th Brigade o 48th Brigade o 8th Brigade o 49th Brigade • 3rd Division (al Kisik) o 9th Brigade o 10th Brigade o 11th Brigade o 12th Brigade Southern Sector • 8th Division (Diwaniyah) • 14th Division (Basrah) o 30th Brigade o 50th Brigade o 31st Brigade o 51st Brigade o 32nd Brigade o 52nd Brigade o 33rd Brigade • 10th Division (An Nasiriyah) o 38th Brigade o 39th Brigade o 40th Brigade o 41st Brigade 5 UNCLASSIFIED OE Threat Assessment: Iraq Presidential Brigade • Iraqi Army Presidential Brigade (Baghdad) o Presidential Brigade Special Troops Battalion st o 1 Presidential Security Battalion nd o 2 Presidential Security Battalion rd o 3 Presidential Security Battalion th o 4 Presidential Security Battalion th o 5 Presidential Security Battalion o Presidential Brigade Support Battalion National Counter-Terrorism Force (INCTF) The Iraqi Special Operations Forces (ISOF) operate outside the MOD chain of command. The INCTF comes under the Counter-Terrorism Command, an operational-level command that reports to the Counter-Terrorism Service, a ministerial-level, policy-setting body under the control of the Prime Minister. • Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Service (Baghdad) (Reports to the Prime Minister; separate from the Minister of Defense) • Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Command (Baghdad) st 1 ISOF Brigade (Baghdad) o st . 1 ISOF Commando Battalion (Baghdad) nd . 2 Iraqi National Counter-Terrorism Force (INCTF) Battalion (Baghdad) rd . 3 ISOF Support Battalion (Baghdad) th . 4 ISOF Training Battalion (Baghdad) th . 5 ISOF Reconnaissance Battalion (Baghdad) nd o 2 ISOF Brigade (Baghdad) . 6th Regional Commando Battalion (Basrah) . 7th Regional Commando Battalion (Mosul) . 8th Regional Commando Battalion (Diyala) . 9th Regional Commando Battalion (al Asad) Iraqi Army Aviation Command In mid-2010 the rotary wing elements of the Iraqi Air Force were re-constituted as the Iraqi Army Aviation Command (IAAC), also referred to as the Iraqi Army Air Corps. The IAAC has a broad battlefield mobility mission that includes transport, observation, attack and training. IAAC headquarters is located at al Taji, which is also a major base for the IAAC. IAAC units are: