DEC

2012

OE Threat Assessment: Iraq

TRADOC G-2 Intelligence Support Activity (TRISA)

Complex Operational Environment and Threat Integration Directorate (CTID)

[Type the author name] United States Army 6/1/2012 OE Threat Assessment: Iraq

Introduction Iraq was created after World War I from the three Ottoman Empire provinces Mosul, Baghdad, and Basra. Iraq has a history of political repression and instability, aggravated by ethnic and religious divisions and regional rivalries involving non-Arab Kurds in the north, a minority Sunni Arab ruling elite, and a majority Shia Arab population concentrated in the south. The Sunni minority maintained power, dating from the Ottoman Empire, until Saddam Hussein was ousted from power in 2003. Saddam Hussein took power in 1979 as the head of the Baath party and survived rebellions, coup plots, and international sanctions until 2003 by a complicated configuring and re-configuring of tribal alliances, often incorporating Shia into his confederations. In 2003 a coalition of countries led by the U.S. invaded Iraq and assumed responsibility for administering the country until sovereignty was transferred to an Iraqi Interim Government on 28 June 2004. In 2009 coalition forces withdrew from Iraqi cities, and their numbers were reduced to below 50,000 in August 2010. In December 2011, the U.S. withdrew the last of its troops after failing to negotiate a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA). Iraqis elected their first post-Saddam government on 15 December 2005 and a cabinet was formed in May 2006. The second parliamentary elections took place on 7 March 2010, and the current government was formed in December 2010. Political On 15 October 2005, the people of Iraq voted via a referendum to approve the current constitution, which proclaims Iraq to be republican, representative, parliamentary, and democratic. The government is composed of executive, legislative, and judicial branches, with numerous independent commissions. The legislative branch is composed of the 325 person elected Council of Representatives and a Federation Commission representing those from the areas and the governorates that are not organized in a region. The executive branch consists of the president, the prime minister, and the Council of Ministers. The federal judiciary has the Higher Judicial Council, the Supreme Court, the Court of Cassation, the Public Prosecution Department, the Judiciary Oversight Commission, and other federal courts that are regulated by law, such as the Central Criminal Court. The Constitution allows for the creation of other instruments of government. Some of the commissions under the monitoring authority of the Council of Representatives include the Independent High Commission for Human Rights, the Independent High Electoral Commission, and the Commission on Integrity. The Central Bank, the Board of Supreme Audit, the Communications and Media Commission, and the Endowment Commission are financially and administratively independent.

Iraqi politics is driven by the interests of three distinct political/religious groups: a Shia majority, a Sunni minority, and the non-Arab Sunni Kurds. In addition to ideological differences, history has placed majorities of Kurds in the north, Shia in the south, and Sunni, who have since the 2 UNCLASSIFIED

OE Threat Assessment: Iraq

Ottoman Empire held the leadership of Iraq, in the center. After the Gulf War, the northern Kurdish region of Iraq, often referred to as Kurdistan, thrived economically due to a no-fly zone enforced by the U.S. and allied countries. Disputes over property and oil rights in the oil-rich Kurdish city of Kirkuk have caused significant tension between leaders in Kurdistan and the national government. Kurdish movements to secede from Iraq simmer and boil, leading to fears from Iraq’s neighbors who also have Kurdish minorities in their countries. The Shia majority, after decades of repression from Sunni minority governments, feel it is their time to be in charge. This has led to score-settling among some.

The current political environment is strained and tenuous, at best. A power-sharing agreement was agreed upon in late 2010 after nine months of political wrangling. The agreement stated that Nouri al-Maliki, a Shia, remain the prime minister, Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, would assume the post of the mostly ceremonial president, and a Sunni would hold the position of Speaker of the Parliament. Fears among opposition parties are that Maliki is consolidating and concentrating power in his Shia party. Adding to the tension endemic in Iraqi politics is the conviction in absentia of the Sunni vice president, Tariq al-Hashimi, of ordering assassinations of political enemies. He is currently on the run with rumors that he may have found refuge among the Kurds in the north. Military The Iraqi military has been focused primarily on internal security and countering insurgencies. The Iraqi armed forces are made up mainly of the land army, with a small air force and a small navy. The army is largely composed of light infantry, with mechanized and armor elements. The air force has been moving to develop a strike capability and the potential to guard Iraq’s large borders. The navy, while small, is seen as having a crucial role in defense strategy as its mission involves the defense of Iraq’s only deep sea port at Umm Qasr and the country’s offshore oil platforms. Iraq has a significant special operations element. In 2007, several regional operational commands were activated by Prime Minister Maliki to enhance coordination between the Iraqi Army and National Police.

Army The Iraqi ground forces command is overseen by the Joint Forces Command, under the control of the Iraqi National Command at the National Operations Center in Baghdad. This center is under the control of the Prime Minister, who is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces. Special Operations forces are under a separate command, the Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Service, which also reports to the Iraqi National Command.

The Iraqi army consists of the following force configuration:

3 UNCLASSIFIED

OE Threat Assessment: Iraq

• 200,000 Regular army forces • 4,200 Counter-terrorism forces • 68,000 Training and support forces • 2,400 Army aviation forces

Army Bases:

• Al Kisik • Mosul • Rustamiyah • Numaniyah • Basrah • Ramadi • Diyala • Samarra • Habbaniyah • Taji • Kirkuk • Tallil • Kirkush • Tikrit

Regular Army:

• 9th Armoured Division (Taji) • 4th Division (Tikrit) o 34th Mechanised Brigade o 14th Brigade o 35th Armoured Brigade o 16th Brigade o 36th Armoured Brigade o 17th Brigade o 37th Cavalry Brigade o 48th Brigade • 1st Division (Habbaniyah) • 7th Division (Ramadi area) (Rapid response counter-insurgency o 26th Brigade force, trained for urban ops) o 27th Brigade o 1st Brigade o 28th Brigade o 2nd Brigade o 29th Brigade 3rd Brigade o o 4th Brigade Central Sector

• 5th Division (Diyala Governate) o 21st Brigade o 18th Brigade o 105th Field Artillery o 19th Brigade Regiment o 20th Brigade

4 UNCLASSIFIED

OE Threat Assessment: Iraq

• 6th Division (Baghdad) • 17th Division (Mahmudiyah) o 22nd Brigade o 23rd Brigade o 24th Brigade o 25th Brigade o 54th Brigade o 55th Brigade 56th Brigade o • 11th Division (East Baghdad) o 42nd Brigade o 43rd Brigade Northern Sector

• 2nd Division (Mosul) • 12th Infantry Division (Kirkuk) o 5th Brigade o 46th Brigade o 6th Brigade o 47th Brigade o 7th Brigade o 48th Brigade o 8th Brigade o 49th Brigade • 3rd Division (al Kisik) o 9th Brigade o 10th Brigade o 11th Brigade o 12th Brigade Southern Sector

• 8th Division (Diwaniyah) • 14th Division (Basrah) o 30th Brigade o 50th Brigade o 31st Brigade o 51st Brigade o 32nd Brigade o 52nd Brigade o 33rd Brigade • 10th Division (An Nasiriyah) o 38th Brigade o 39th Brigade o 40th Brigade o 41st Brigade

5 UNCLASSIFIED

OE Threat Assessment: Iraq

Presidential Brigade

• Iraqi Army Presidential Brigade (Baghdad) o Presidential Brigade Special Troops Battalion st o 1 Presidential Security Battalion nd o 2 Presidential Security Battalion rd o 3 Presidential Security Battalion th o 4 Presidential Security Battalion th o 5 Presidential Security Battalion o Presidential Brigade Support Battalion

National Counter-Terrorism Force (INCTF) The Iraqi Special Operations Forces (ISOF) operate outside the MOD chain of command. The INCTF comes under the Counter-Terrorism Command, an operational-level command that reports to the Counter-Terrorism Service, a ministerial-level, policy-setting body under the control of the Prime Minister.

• Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Service (Baghdad) (Reports to the Prime Minister; separate from the Minister of Defense) • Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Command (Baghdad) st o 1 ISOF Brigade (Baghdad) . 1st ISOF Commando Battalion (Baghdad) . 2nd Iraqi National Counter-Terrorism Force (INCTF) Battalion (Baghdad) . 3rd ISOF Support Battalion (Baghdad) . 4th ISOF Training Battalion (Baghdad) . 5th ISOF Reconnaissance Battalion (Baghdad) nd o 2 ISOF Brigade (Baghdad) . 6th Regional Commando Battalion (Basrah) . 7th Regional Commando Battalion (Mosul) . 8th Regional Commando Battalion (Diyala) . 9th Regional Commando Battalion (al Asad)

Iraqi Army Aviation Command In mid-2010 the rotary wing elements of the Iraqi Air Force were re-constituted as the Iraqi Army Aviation Command (IAAC), also referred to as the Iraqi Army Air Corps. The IAAC has a broad battlefield mobility mission that includes transport, observation, attack and training. IAAC headquarters is located at al Taji, which is also a major base for the IAAC. IAAC units are:

6 UNCLASSIFIED

• 2nd Squadron (Taji) • 15th Squadron (Taji) • 4th Squadron (Basrah) • 21th Squadron (Taji) • 12 Squadron (Habbaniyah) • 88th Squadron (Taji)

Air Force The Air Force Headquarters reports to the Iraqi Joint Forces Command (JFC) at the Joint Operations Center in Baghdad. The JFC reports to the Iraqi National Command at the National Operations Center in Baghdad. The Iraqi Air Force is assigned missions to support Iraqi security forces on the ground, infrastructure surveillance, border security, and air transport. Units include:

• Reconnaissance Wing (Kirkuk) rd o 3 Reconnaissance Squadron (Kirkuk) • Transport Wing (Baghdad International Airport (BIAP)) rd o 23 Transport Squadron (BIAP) o 87 Composite Squadron (BIAP) o Transport Squadron (BIAP) • Reconnaissance Wing (Tallil) 70th Reconnaissance Squadron (Tallil) o th o 70 Reconnaissance Squadron Detachment (BIAP) • Flying Training Wing (Al Sahra) st o 201 Training Squadron (Al Sahra) 202nd Training Squadron (Al Sahra) o rd o 203 Training Squadron (Al Sahra) Air Force Bases

• Al Sahra • Kirkuk • BIAP • Tallil

Navy The Iraqi Navy (IN) is organized with a Naval Headquarters (NHQ) with a small staff, headed by a rear admiral, and located at the Ministry of Defence (MOD) in Baghdad.

The Operations Headquarters is at Umm Qasr Naval Base that also houses a training school, support services, a diving squadron and two Battalions of Iraqi Marines. Recently, a large number of NHQ staff was relocated to Umm Qasr to facilitate closer interaction with operational elements. There is also a Tactical Operations Center (TOC) on each oil terminal.

The Ministry of the Interior (MOI) controls a small coast guard contingency of 500, separate from the Navy. The Coast Guard patrols the Shatt al Arab waterway and the network of waterways running from it into Basra. One of its roles is to combat smuggling. Units reporting to the NHQ are: OE Threat Assessment: Iraq

• Operational Headquarters (Umm Qasr Naval Base) o Patrol Ship/ Patrol Boat Squadron o Small Boat Squadron o Auxiliary Squadron o Naval Training Center • Iraqi Marine Brigade 1st Battalion o nd o 2 Battalion

ARMY Armored Equipment in Service Artillery Systems in Service AT/SAM Weapons in Service M1A1SA 140 155 mm M198 UNK 9k111 Fagot (AT-4 ‘Spigot’) T-72 77 155 mm M109 26 9k14/9k11 Malyutka (AT-3 UNK ‘Sagger’) T-55 50 81 mm M-37 UNK UNK BMP-1 100 82 mm Al-Jaleel UNK Armored Patrol Vehicle 600 120 mm M-43 UNK BRDM-2 18 10 mm Al-Jaleel UNK BTR-4 26 160 mm M-43 UNK EE-9 Cascavel 34 60 mm Al-Jaleel UNK MT-LB 61 M113A1 300 BTR-94 50 Talha 44 Spartan 100 BTR-80 115 M3 44 Transportpanzer 1 (Fuchs) 20 Mohafiz 60 Barracuda 12 Dzik 3 600 ASV 150 (M1117) (Guardian) 43 Cobra 10 ILAV (Cougar Type) 607 HUMMWV 3,800 Army Aviation Fixed Wing Aircraft in Service Rotary Wing Aircraft in Service Missiles in Service EC-635 4 Mi-17 16 Mi-171E 22 SA 342 Gazelle 6 AIR FORCE Fixed Wing Aircraft in Service Rotary Wing Aircraft in Service Missiles in Service SB7L-360 Seeker 2 AGM-114 Hellfire UNK SAMA CH2000 MTSA 8 8 UNCLASSIFIED

OE Threat Assessment: Iraq

King Air 350ER 7 C-130E Hercules 3 C-130J-30 Super Hercules 1 An-32B ‘Cline’ 6 208B Grand Caravan 11 T-6A Texan II (Trainer) 15 Lasta 95 (Trainer) 20 172S Skyhawk (Trainer) 18

NAVY Vessels Modified Saettia (Fateh) 4 Swiftships 35 m 6 Al-Uboor 3 Predator 5 Type 2010 4 Type 200 2 Defender 26 Seaspray 24 Al-Shams 1

American Forces in Iraq Failing to get a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), the U.S. pulled all but a few of the remaining military personnel from Iraq in December 2011. To date, U.S. military is limited to a few hundred personnel involved in training Iraqis and embassy security.

Government Paramilitary Forces In January 2005, the Iraqi National Guard was merged into the Iraqi Army and ceased to exist as a separate military force.

The MOI controls Iraq's paramilitary forces. The various police militia units were combined in 2007 to form the Iraqi National Police, which stands at 530,000 personnel and includes a highway patrol, oil police, a facilities protection service, and the Iraqi Police Service. The Iraqi National Police is organized into a public order division HQ (based in Baghdad), four public order brigades, one special police mechanized brigade, and four special police commando brigades.

The Iraqi Directorate of Border Enforcement (DBE) polices ports of entry and spearheads the effort to interdict smuggling and terrorist movement through Iraq's borders. The DBE has five regional commands, each responsible for port control, border surveillance, and patrols in its area. The border police force structure consists of 12 brigades and 44 battalions spread across the five DBE regions. DBOE personnel number 60,000.

9 UNCLASSIFIED

OE Threat Assessment: Iraq

Iraqi Military Functions

Mission Command Iraq has focused primarily on building its capacity to combat insurgencies and internal threats rather than external threats. Since the removal of U.S. forces from Iraq, the Iraqi national government has consistently moved toward consolidation of centralized power culminating with the Prime Minister as commander in chief of security forces. Operational control of the military is the Joint Forces Command, under the control of the Iraqi National Command at the National Operations Center in Baghdad.

Maneuver The Iraqi military has focused on internal threats, which has left it vulnerable to external threats. Experience and training from coalition forces in Iraq have developed significant capacity and expertise in Iraqi security forces to maneuver in urban environments. Iraq is less able to control its vast desert borders and defend against external threats. Developing a more robust air force with the ability to actively patrol its borders and fewer internal threats will allow Iraq to focus on developing its ability to defend against external threats.

Information Warfare Iraq has a robust and open media environment with free access to a wide variety of news sources. The Internet has played a significant role in information dispersal since 2003. Additionally, citizen journalism, particularly blogging, has become an important part of sharing ideas among Iraqis. While the Iraqi government has a limited ability to shape opinion through official networks, Iraqis have access to other sources of information that may counter officially disseminated information.

Open source information does not mention official Iraqi information operations units or efforts. The emphasis placed on information operations by the U.S. during its decades-long training of Iraqi government and military leaders, however, makes it highly probable that information operations is a significant consideration in mission planning.

RISTA The Iraqi army is primarily light infantry with the ability to operate effectively within urban areas. Iraqi security forces have developed significant capabilities in intelligence, surveillance, and target acquisition as it relates to counterinsurgency. The Iraqi air force is developing capabilities to conduct reconnaissance along Iraq’s borders.

10 UNCLASSIFIED

OE Threat Assessment: Iraq

Fire Support The Iraqi army has limited fire support capabilities. As Iraq is able to focus more attention on external threats, this is an area of vulnerability that will need attention.

Protection As the Iraqi military is primarily a light infantry army using soft-skinned vehicles, its military is vulnerable to chemical attacks. The most critical and pressing threat against which there is little protection for Iraqi security forces is improvised explosive devices (IED) and other insurgent- type weapons.

Logistics The Iraqi military has built logistics units into its military brigades to ensure effective support for combat units and operations. Threat Actors in the OE

Non-State Paramilitary Forces

Insurgent Forces

The Islamic Army in Iraq (IAI) -Al-Jaish al-Islami fil-Iraq AIA emerged in mid-2003 as a domestic Sunni Islamic resistance movement. It is a militant group formed by former Baathist and Iraqi military members who were disenfranchised when the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) dismantled the Iraqi military and government. While formed to oust coalition forces from Iraq, it has a Sunni Islamist element in its ideology. IAI was notorious for kidnapping and executing foreign contractors in Iraq. The group continues to claim responsibility for attacks, albeit fewer than at its peak in 2005-2006, and represents a large and sophisticated insurgent group posing a significant risk.

Al-Qaeda in the Land of the Two Rivers or Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI)-Tanzim al- Qaeda al-Jihad fi Balad al-Rafidain AQI is a Sunni Islamist group formed in 2004 when the leader of Jamaat al-Tawhid wal-Jihad, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, pledged his loyalty to al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and changed the name of his organization to al-Qaeda in Iraq. AQI operations were set back in late 2006 when AQI’s indiscriminate killing of Iraqis led Sunni tribes to throw their support behind coalition forces and the Iraqi government. More recently, AQI has attempted to delegitimize the Iraqi government through attacking government targets and Shia communities in an effort

11 UNCLASSIFIED

OE Threat Assessment: Iraq

to create sectarian reprisal violence. AQI represents the most effective threat facing Iraq, due in part to international support for its operations.

Imam Al-Mahdi Army (JAM)-Jaish al-Mahdi JAM is the armed wing of the Organization of the Martyr Sadr (OMS), commonly known as the Sadrist Movement, which represents Shia followers of the assassinated Ayatollah Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr. Sadr’s only son, Muqtada al-Sadr created a power base through the OMS and formed JAM in July 2003. JAM militants fought coalition and Iraqi forces and conducted attacks on Sunnis during the peak of the sectarian violence in 2006. Counter-terrorism operations against JAM led to an indefinite ceasefire in 2008. Since that time, JAM has focused on political and social activities. In March 2010 elections, the Sadrist Movement won 40 seats in Parliament. JAM has remained faithful to the ceasefire despite AQI attempts to provoke a return to sectarian violence by attacking Shia communities. JAM and the Sadrist Movement investment in the political process and the removal of U.S. troops from Iraq make it unlikely they will return to sectarian violence.

Partisans of Islam-Ansar al-Islam Ansar al-Islam is a militant Sunni Islamist group founded on 1 September 2001 and led by Abu Hashem Muhammad Abdul-Rahman Ibrahim. Its primary area of operations is the Kurdish region of northern Iraq. Its original intent was to establish an Islamic government consistent with its hard-line Salafist ideology; however, following the 2003 invasion of Iraq, Ansar al- Islam’s positions were overrun and leaders scattered. The group returned later in the year as Ansar al-Sunna with the goal of expelling foreign forces and countering the influence of Shia and Kurdish ideology. In 2007, it returned to its original name, Ansar al-Islam. Ansar al-Islam is not capable of overthrowing the government; however, it has a sophisticated organization and represents a significant threat to the stability of Iraq’s Kurdish region.

Brigades of the Party of God (KH)-Kataib Hizbullah KH has been activate since 2007 as a Shia militant Islamist group alleged to be closely linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps. KH is a coalition of Shia militias, to include splinters from JAM. The short-term objective was the removal of coalition forces from Iraq with a larger goal of establishing an Iranian-style Shia theocracy in Iraq. Iran has been linked to supplying KH with sophisticated weapons such as explosively-formed projectiles (EFP). With support from Iran, KH represents a significant threat to Iraq’s stability.

Guerrilla Forces There are currently no known major guerrilla forces operating in Iraq.

12 UNCLASSIFIED

OE Threat Assessment: Iraq

Criminal Organizations Criminal organizations thrive in Iraq under the current instability and represent several different parts of Iraqi society. Many of Iraq’s tribes have long engaged in smuggling activities; some, for example, smuggling oil from the southern city of Basra and others along the Syrian border smuggling livestock and other commodities. Foreign fighters and jihadis groups, especially AQI, engage in kidnappings, car theft, fraud and extortion. Government corruption is a critical problem in Iraq where officials can sell public services, public contracts, and influence to others.

Private Security Organizations Private Security Organizations are still an integral part of Iraq’s reconstruction plans; however, events such as the 2007 Blackwater killing of 17 Iraqis in Nisour Square has made Iraqis suspicious of security contractors. The U.S. government employs a large number of security personnel to guard its 11,000 embassy employees and contractors hired to train the Iraqi military to operate tanks, helicopters, and weapons systems the U.S. has sold to Iraq. Other countries with employees supporting their missions in Iraq will also have security contractors hired to provide security for people and property. Iraq, in an effort to exert its sovereignty, has detained some contractors in order to sort out visa and other issues.

Non-Military Armed Combatants There are foreign advisors to the Iraqi military and government throughout the country. Some of these advisors may be armed. Members of criminal, terrorist, and insurgent groups are armed and target foreigners and high value Iraqi targets.

Force Protection Issues Iraq is a dangerous environment, suffering from government instability and criminal and insurgent activities. The most critical force protection issue remains IEDs, kidnappings, and attacks on high profile targets such as government and military buildings and leaders. Sunni Islamists, such as AQI, and Iranian support of Shia militants represent the greatest organizational threats. Economic Iraq has enjoyed very few years of peace since 1980 that have been unencumbered by either war or sanctions. Iraq’s economy is dominated by the oil sector, which has traditionally provided about 95% of foreign exchange earnings. Iraq is also emerging from decades of living under a paternalistic and centralized command economy and remains strongly reliant on the state. The transition to economic liberalization is a slow process. Subsidized food, electricity, and fuel are staples of Iraqi economic life; however, these benefits are threatened as the Iraqi 13 UNCLASSIFIED

OE Threat Assessment: Iraq

government seeks to increase fiscal discipline and reduce government subsidies as a mechanism for gaining International Monetary Fund (IMF) support and reducing foreign debt. In response, Iraqi civilians have launched protests against the reduction of subsidies and the increasing cost of living. The government is unlikely to risk further serious social upheaval in pursuit of radical reforms. In February 2011, the Iraqi parliament approved an annual budget of $82.6 billion. The revenue was calculated on an average price of $76.50 per barrel. The surge in oil prices during and after 2011 has brought additional revenues for the Iraqi government. As a consequence, the budget in 2012 was increased to $100 billion and to $115 billion in 2013. Social Compared with its neighbors, Iraq is a relatively secular country. Women can be seen in traditional Islamic clothes or Western attire. Women have access to professional university training for such positions as doctors, engineers, pharmacists, etc. Iraq is 75%-80% Arab, 15%- 20% Kurdish, and 5% Turkoman, Assyrian, and other. Muslims constitute 97% of the population with 60%-65% being Shia and 30%-35% being Sunni. Christians and others represent 3% of the population. Total literacy rate is 78.2% with a gender breaking down as 86% males and 70.6% females. Despite significant oil revenues, the bureaucratic inefficiencies, centralized nature of the government, and corruption cause inefficient and inequitable distribution of public services. Health services, public works, and other services are often rationed due to flaws in the system. Information Iraq has access to a wide variety of media resources. The number of private radio and TV stations has increased rapidly since 2003. Government-owned TV and radio stations are operated by the publicly-funded Iraqi Public Broadcasting Service while private broadcast media are mostly linked to political, ethnic, or religious groups. Satellite TV is available to an estimated 70% of residents with access to many foreign-based broadcasters. Due to destruction of landline switches and lines during the 2003 invasion of Iraq, mobile cellular phones are in widespread use.

Intelligence Services in the OE Iraq maintains an intelligence service, but open source information on it is limited. The Iraqi Constitution under Section 1, Article 9 establishes the Iraqi National Intelligence Service (INIS). The constitutionally-defined responsibilities of this agency are to collect information, assess threats to national security, and advise the Iraqi government. It is under the operational control of the Council of Ministers, subject to legislative oversight, and operates within the constraints of a legal framework. INIS does not have authority to arrest or detain. Other entities, such as the MOI and MOD have their own intelligence-gathering offices. Iran and other regional countries are likely to have intelligence-gathering resources within Iraq. 14 UNCLASSIFIED

OE Threat Assessment: Iraq

Infrastructure Iraqi infrastructure has suffered from decades of neglect with the exception of the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq. The no-fly zone established after the first Gulf War created a unique space for economic development for the northern region of Iraq. Even after a decade of reconstruction efforts in the rest of Iraq, electricity is still not consistent in most areas and other public infrastructure is suffering from the effects of inattention. With proper funding and focused project management, Iraq’s infrastructure can be vastly improved. The centralized tendency of the Iraqi government and corruption, however, has impeded significant improvement in infrastructure. Physical Environment Iraq has a diverse geography and climate. Its terrain is mostly broad plains, reedy marshes along the Iranian border in the south with large flooded areas and mountains along the borders with Iran and Turkey. Iraq is mostly desert with mild to cool winters and dry, hot, cloudless summers. The northern mountainous regions along Iranian and Turkish borders experience cold winters with occasionally heavy snows that melt in early spring, sometimes causing extensive flooding in central and southern Iraq. Government water control projects have drained most of the inhabited marsh areas east of An Nasiriyah by drying up or diverting the feeder streams and rivers. A once-sizable population of Marsh Arabs, who inhabited these areas for thousands of years, has been displaced. The destruction of the natural habitat poses serious threats to the area's wildlife populations. Other environmental challenges include inadequate supplies of potable water, air and water pollution, soil degradation (salination) and erosion, and desertification. Time Iraqis have a more relaxed attitude toward schedules and meetings. Office hours are generally Saturday-Thursday 0800-1400. Friday is the weekly day of rest when offices tend to be closed. Due to the unreliable nature of electricity and air conditioning, summer months may see shorter work days. During the month of Ramadan, hours are reduced. Iraqis celebrate all Muslim holidays as well as a number of holidays honoring national events.

15 UNCLASSIFIED

References “Al-Qaeda in Iraq,” Military Periscope, June 2010. Aneja, Atul, “Power-Sharing Deal,” The Hindu, 8 November 2010. Ansar al-Islam,” Military Periscope, June 2010. “Iraq: Armed Forces Structure,” Military Periscope, 01 August 2012. “Islamic Army in Iraq (IAI),” Janes, 13 November 2012. “Iraq-Air Force,” Janes, 12 December 2012. “Iraq Country Specific Information,” U.S. State Department. “Iraq: Executive Summary,” Janes, 14 November 2012. “The Iraqi National Guard (ING),” GlobalSecurity, “Iraqi Security Forces order of Battle (OOB) , The Long War Journal. “Iraq: Summary,” Military Periscope, 01 August 2012 “Iraq Travel Guide,” World Travel Guide. Mardini, Ramzy, “Iraq’s Post-Withdrawal Crisis,” Institute for the Study of War, 30 March 2012. “Obama Hails Iraq ‘Milestone’ after Power-Sharing Deal,” BBC News, 12 November 2010. Schlesinger, Robert, “Iraq, the Surge, and the Sunni Awakening: Not So Fast, Jack,” U.S. News, 25 September 2008. Shadid, Anthony, “Iraqi Insurgent Group Names New Leaders, The New York Times, 16 May 2010. Williams, Phil, “Criminals, Militias, and Insurgents: Organized Crime in Iraq,” Strategic Studies Institute, 26 August 2009. Williams, Phil, “Organized Crime in Iraq: Strategic Surprise and Lessons for Future Contingencies,” NDU Press, January 2010. Weitz, Richard, “Iraq 2012: Looking Forward,” Second Line of Defense, 23 December 2011. “World Factbook: Iraq,” Central Intelligence Agency. “World Navies: Iraq,” Janes, 09 October 2012.

OE Threat Assessment: Iraq

Related Products See also the Red Diamond Newsletter, which contains current articles on a variety of topics useful to both soldiers and civilians ranging from enemy TTP to the latest threat actor developments.

For detailed information on weapons and equipment, see the Worldwide Equipment Guide.

All TRISA-CTID products are on AKO:

POCs

OEA Team 913-684-7920 (COMM) 552-7920 (DSN) 913-684-7929 (COMM) 552-7929 (DSN)

TRADOC G-2 Intelligence Support Activity (TRISA) Complex Operational Environment and Threat Integration Directorate (CTID) 803 Harrison Drive, BLDG 467 Fort Leavenworth, KS 66027

17 UNCLASSIFIED