Who Will Be Idol? The Connection Between Social Networks and Winning on Reality Shows by Odelia Heizler
[email protected] and Ayal Kimhi
[email protected] Department of Agricultural Economics and Management The Hebrew University P.O. Box 12, Rehovot 76100, Israel Abstract This paper examines, both theoretically and empirically, the effect of social networks and belonging to minority groups (or race) on the probability of winning in reality television shows. We develop a theoretical model that studies viewer behavior by presenting a framework of competition between two contestants from two different groups. The results are examined empirically using unique contestant data from the highly popular reality show “A Star Is Born”, the Israeli counterpart of “American Idol”. Our main finding is that social networks and belonging to minority groups play key roles in the contestant’s victory, but their effects are nonlinear: the social network effect is U -shaped, whereas that of belonging to a minority group follows an inverted U shape. Beyond the world of reality TV, this paper sheds light on the general behavior of social networks as well. Keywords: American Idol, social networks, minority groups, contest, voting. JEL code: J15, D71, P16. 1 1. Introduction “American Idol”—based on the British TV show “Pop Idol”, is the most popular and successful reality show on America's FOX TV network. “American Idol” is a singing competition, aimed at determining the best undiscovered young singers in the country. The judging system is democratic, with everyone being able to vote for his or her favorite contestant.