SWP Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Eugene Whitlock (Ed.) “Iran and Its Neighbors: Diverging Views on a Strategic Region” July 2003 Berlin © Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, 2003 All rights reserved SWP Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Ludwigkirchplatz 3−4 10719 Berlin Telephone +49 30 880 07-0 Fax +49 30 880 07-100 www.swp-berlin.org
[email protected] Table of Contents 5 Foreword – Johannes Reissner 7 Iran and the Middle East 9 The Infernal Triangle: Iran, Israel, and the United States – Samuel W. Lewis 15 Iran’s Relationship to Its Neighbors in Central Asia and the Caucasus 17 Iran’s Role in the South Caucasus and Caspian Region: Diverging Views of the U.S. and Europe – Brenda Shaffer 23 Iran in the Caucasus, Caspian and Central Asia: Lessons for Western Strategy – Edmund Herzig 29 U.S. and Iranian Policy in Afghanistan – Barnett R. Rubin 35 Iran and the Problem of Proliferation 37 Dealing with Iran’s Nuclear Program – Michael Eisenstadt 42 Iran, the Bomb, and the Future of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty – Oliver Thränert 53 The Potential for Iran to Provoke Further Nuclear Proliferation in the Middle East – Patrick Clawson 57 The Role of Iran and the Region for Global Energy Supply 59 Iran’s Oil and Gas Development and the Effect of U.S. Economic Sanctions – James A. Placke 65 Why Iran Is Key for Europe’s Security of Energy Supply – Friedemann Müller 70 Post-War Iraq and Iran’s Petroleum Sector – Joe Barnes and