Political Monitor

IPSOS MORI SCOTTISH POLITICAL MONITOR

How do you intend to vote in the general election?

Headline voting intention All giving a voting intention

SNP 44% SNP 43%

Conservative 26% Conservative 25%

Labour 16% Labour 17%

Lib Dems 11% Lib Dems 10%

Green Party 2% Green 3%

Brexit Party <1% Brexit 1%

Other 1% Other 1%

SNP lead = +18 ConservativeSNP lead lead = +18 = +14

Base: 1,032 Scottish adults 18+, 19-25 November 2019; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote, always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections and registered to vote (868). Margin of Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor error is displayed at +/- 4%. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures.

3 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | November 2019 | Public VOTING DECISIONS

© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker | November 2019 | Public Which party to vote for? % Definitely decided Have you definitely decided to vote for the ………. party or is there a chance you may change your mind before you vote? % Definitely % May change decided mind Among all 77% 23%

Among SNP supporters 84% 15%

Among Conservative 84% 16% supporters

Among Labour supporters 73% 27%

Among Lib Dem supporters 66% 34%

Base: Scottish adults 18+ who said they would vote for a party (716); SNP supporters (299); Conservative supporters (183); Labour supporters (83); Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor Lib Dem supporters (63); 19th-25th November 2019

© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | November 2019 | Public Tactical voting decisions: By party Which of the following statements comes closest to your reasons for intending to vote for [party]? ‘It is the party that most represents your views’ or ‘The party you support has little chance of winning so you vote for [party] to try to keep another party out’

% party that most represents % vote to keep own views another party out

Among all 72% 13%

Among SNP supporters 83% 6%

Among Conservative 71% 12% supporters

Among Labour supporters 66% 19%

Among Lib Dem supporters 64% 22%

Base: Scottish adults 18+ with a voting intention (902); SNP supporters (339); Conservative supporters (219); Labour supporters (120); Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor Lib Dem supporters (94); 19th-25th November 2019

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way…. is running the country/doing his/her job… as Prime Minister/First Minister?

Boris Johnson Nicola Sturgeon The Scottish Government

Dissatisfied

48% 48%

74% Don’t know 4% 5%

4% 48% 46%

Satisfied 22% NET= -52 NET= 0 NET=- 2

Base: Scottish adults 16+ (1,046),19-25 November 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor

8 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | November 2019 | Public Satisfaction with party leaders

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way…. is doing his/her job… as First Minister of Scotland/ interim leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party/ leader of the Scottish Labour Party/ the Scottish Liberal Democrats/ the UK Labour Party/ the UK Liberal Democrat Party? Nicola Sturgeon Jackson Carlaw Richard Leonard Willie Rennie Jeremy Corbyn Jo Swinson

Dissatisfied

43% 38% 48% 50% 48% 69% Don’t know 4% 31% 39% 25% 33% 48% 9%

Satisfied 31% 27% 18% 17% 22% NET= 0 NET= -25 NET= -33 NET= -7 NET= -47 NET=-21

Base: Scottish adults 16+ (1.046),19-25 November 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor

9 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | November 2019 | Public KEY ISSUES

© Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential Which issues will help decide your vote? Europe/EU/Brexit 56% Healthcare/NHS/hospitals 44% Looking ahead to the General Election, which, if any, issues do Scottish independence/devolution 34% you think will be very important to you in helping you decide Education/schools 24% which party to vote for? Protecting the environment/climate change 8%

Immigration 7%

Managing the economy/economic situation 7%

Taxation 6%

Housing 6%

Poverty/Inequality 6%

Base: Scottish adults 18+ with a voting intention (902); 19-25 November 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor

11 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | November 2019 | Public Which issues will help decide your vote? Looking ahead to the next General Election, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for?

Among all Among SNP supporters Brexit 56% Brexit 55% NHS 44% Independence 46% Independence 34% NHS 45% Education 24% Education 22% Environment Environment* 8% (5=) 6% Among Conservative Party supporters Among Labour Party supporters

Brexit 72% NHS 67% NHS 33% Brexit 39% Independence 31% Education 32% Education 20% Benefits 20% Taxation 10% Independence 17%

Base: Scottish adults 18+ with a voting intention (902); SNP supporters (339); Conservative supporters (219); Labour supporters (120), 19-25 November 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor

*Both environment and immigration are mentioned by 6% of SNP supporters

12 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | November 2019 | Public Influence of Brexit vs Scottish independence on voting intention Regardless of whether you support or oppose Brexit or Scottish independence, which of these has more influence on what party you think you will vote for in the general election?

12% Neither

Scottish 37% independence

24% Brexit

Both

24%

Base: Scottish adults 18+ with a voting intention (902); 19-25 November 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor

© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker | November 2019 | Public Indyref 2 next year? Do you support or oppose a second referendum on Scottish independence being held within the next year?

SUPPORT: 42% 33%

Strongly support 43% Tend to support Neither support nor oppose Tend to oppose Strongly oppose

9% OPPOSE: 6% 50% 7%

Base: Scottish adults 16+ (1.046),19-25 November 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor

If a referendum were held tomorrow about Scotland's constitutional future, how would you vote in response to the following question: Should Scotland be an independent country?

All likely to vote and expressing a voting All likely to vote intention 4% Yes Yes No No Undecided

48% 50% 50% 48%

Base: Scottish adults 16+ likely to vote in an independence referendum (915); Scottish adults 16+ likely to vote and expressing a voting intention (897); 19th – 25th November 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor

Ipsos MORI Scotland interviewed a representative sample of 1,046 adults aged 16+ across Scotland. Interviews were conducted by telephone: 19 – 25 November 2019. Data are weighted by age, sex, region, social grade, working status, tenure, education and country of birth to match the profile of the population.

Where percentages do not sum to 100 this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of “don’t know” categories, or multiple answers. An asterisk (*) denotes any value of less than half a per cent.

Questions are asked of the total sample of n=1,046 unless otherwise stated. Ipsos MORI

Scottish Political Monitor 2019

For more information

Emily Gray Managing Director, Ipsos MORI Scotland [email protected]