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Hazard Vulnerability Risk Assessment of District Gilgit, Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan

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Hazard Vulnerability Risk Assessment of District Gilgit, Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan Modern Environmental Science and Engineering (ISSN 2333-2581) November 2015, Volume 1, No. 5, pp. 255-268 Doi:10.15341/mese(2333-2581)/05.01.2015/007 Academic Star Publishing Company, 2015 www.academicstar.us Hazard Vulnerability Risk Assessment of District Gilgit, Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan Farasat Ali1, Babar Khan1, Garee Khan1, Yawar Abbas2, Ejaz Hussain1, Ambar Masud3, Karim Akber1 and Rizwan 4 Karim 1. World Wide Fund for Nature Pakistan, Gilgit, Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan 2. Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Bahria University, Islamabad, Pakistan 3. United Nation Development Programme, Pakistan 4. Department of Forestry & Range Management, PMAS-Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan Abstract: Gilgit-Baltistan of Pakistan in general and district Gilgit in specific vulnerable for climate induce hydro-metrological hazards and its impacts. The community based hazard vulnerability risk assessment study recorded key climate change induced hydro-metrological hazards, vulnerabilities and capacities in district Gilgit. The study documented major hazards included floods (flash floods), prolong droughts, heavy rainfalls/ snowfalls, clouds bursts, avalanches, landslides, river bank erosion and epidemics. Prioritization or ranking wise floods are more frequent in the study area. The total settlement area of the district is 136.436 Sq.Km out of which 15.67354 Sq.Km is considered to high vulnerable for floods and other hazards. They are vulnerable in terms of critical facilities, livelihoods options, ecological resources, motivationally and organizationally extreme events. Capacity of the local community and district Government is weak like lack of knowledge, resources and skills and this study provide local viable options to reduced risks from natural events. Key words: hazard vulnerability risk assessment, hydro-metrological hazards, critical facilities, vulnerability, high frequent, motivational vulnerability approach is that it allows abroad collection of potential 1. Introduction risk factors to be explored [4]. Vulnerability and hazard Hazard vulnerability risk assessment (HVRA) risk assessment variedly undertaken worldwide, studies examine the hazards that may impact a however, the common factors for vulnerability, raking, community and the risk that each hazard event poses to index, etc are relatively inverse to what parameters are the community as a whole and to vulnerable elements used in human development index thus , better human of the community [1]. HVRA is a critical part of every development index is indicative of higher coping emergency programme (Provincial emergency capacity and low vulnerability [5]. Hazard, programme, 2004) [2]. The hazard vulnerability risk vulnerability and risk are correlated to understand past assessment is crucial for emergency preparedness, losses and susceptibility to future losses [6-8]. The immediate response, mitigation planning and long term term hazard refers to a dangerous phenomenon, recovery from disasters [3]. The benefit of the substance, human activity or condition that may cause vulnerability integrated hazard risk assessment loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of life, injury or other health impacts, Corresponding author: Farasat Ali, MS Environmental property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, Sciences, World Wide Fund for Nature Pakistan; research areas/interests: climate change. E-mail: social and economic disruption, or environmental [email protected]. 256 Hazard Vulnerability Risk Assessment of District Gilgit, Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan damage (United Nations, international strategy for Gilgit-Baltistan increased vulnerability of the area in disaster reduction ) [9]. Vulnerability refers as the the country [18-20]. degree of fragility of person, a group, a community or 2. Methodology an area towards defined hazard. Vulnerability is set of conditions and processes resulting from physical, 2.1 Study Area social, economic and environmental factors that District Gilgit is strategically the most important increase the susceptibility of a community to the district and the capital of the Gilgit-Baltistan. The area impact of hazard (The ESPON Hazard project (2003, p. lies on N 35°55' 0” and E 74°18' 0” and bounded by 19) [10]. Vulnerability is an essential part of hazards Hunza-Nagar to the north; Skardu, Astore and Diamer and risk research and refers to the susceptibility of to the south; and Ghizer District to the west. The total people, communities or regions to natural or covered area of district is 38,000 square kilometers technological hazards [11]. While risk define as (14,700 sq mi) [21]. The region is significantly expectation value of losses (Death, injuries, property, mountainous and lying on the foothills of the etc that would be caused by a hazard, Disaster risk can Karakoram Mountains with an average altitude of be seen as a function of the hazard, exposure and 1,500 meters (4,900 ft). It is drained by the Indus River, vulnerability as follow (Asian disaster reduction center, which rises in the neighboring regions of Ladakh and 2005). Pakistan is one of the most natural disaster Baltistan. Average annual rain fall recorded 120 to 240 prone countries in the world [12]. Hydro-metrological millimeters (4.7 to 9.4 Inc). The piercing sunrays may hazards particularly heavy rain falls induce flash floods raise the temperature up to 40°C (104°F), yet it is are permanent feature of the Pakistan [13-15]. All always cool in the shade. As a result of this extremity in provinces of Pakistan including Gilgit-Baltistan are the weather, landslides and avalanches are frequent in vulnerable to geo-hydro metrological disasters [16, 17]. the area. The unique geography and environmental conditions of Fig.1 Union councils Map of District, Gilgit Hazard Vulnerability Risk Assessment of District Gilgit, Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan 257 social, attitudinal and economic. We used hazard maps, 2.2 Assessment Methods transect walk, seasonal calendar, livelihood analysis, The hazard vulnerability risk assessment (HVRA) is Venn diagram, semi structured interviews, problem a step by step process that enables an HRVA tree and ranking as tools to assess the vulnerabilities committee chair, and a small working group, to with in the district. Community based Capacity complete a hazard, risk and vulnerability analysis Assessment is what people’s coping strategies are; (Provincial emergency programme, 2004) [2]. This what resources are still available; who has access and community based HVRA was conducted in three steps, control over these resources? Capacities are further i.e., identification of hydro-metrological hazards, classified into physical, social, attitudinal and assessing the vulnerabilities and documented the economic capacities. Hazard map, historical profile, capacities, community basedhazard assessment is the seasonal calendar, gendered resource mapping, focus identification, list down and description of nature of group discussion, livelihood/coping analysis, hazards in terms of its recurrence, reasonability, institutional and social network analysis were used as location, possibility of early warning and general tools for capacity assessment, In addition of Microsoft knowledge of the people about the hazard. It is further Excel for statistical analysis and arc GIS 9.2 for divided into two steps; the hazard identification and hazards mapping and other. hazard analysis [22]. Agree that Hazard mapping of 3. Results and Discussions risk area from natural hazards and disasters are valuable information and communication tools. We 3.1 Hazard Identification used various tools such as hazard maps (developed Based on the hazard maps (Fig. 2), personal through arc GIS 9.3), historical profile and hazard observations, community response and historic profile; matrix to identify and assess the hazards. Coburn et al. floods, landslides, river bank erosion and avalanches (1994) [23] added as Vulnerability is the measure of are the major hazards in the district Gilgit, associated how the element at risk in a geographic region would with water and weather changes pattern. Besides these; be damaged if they experience same level of hazard. droughts, cold spells and epidemics are some other Community based Vulnerability Assessment is the hazards, observed and identified by the community. A identification of what elements are at risk and why brief description of each is as under. (refer to unsafe conditions, dynamic pressures and root causes).Vulnerabilities are future divided as physical, Fig.1 Hazard Map of Study Area 258 Hazard Vulnerability Risk Assessment of District Gilgit, Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan Jagot but most vulnerable are, Sakarkoie, Konadas, 3.2 Floods Naltar, Jutial, and Jaglot Gorow. The flood Nullahs are Floods are permanent feature of Pakistan [13-15]. very near to settlements and average speed on set is just Pakistan is highly vulnerable for floods and 27 minutes, gives the community very little time to Hydro-metrological events [24]. The hazard evacuate them-selves. As compare to above mentioned identification and assessment process shows that flood union councils, Haramosh, Sai Jaglot, charkorcot and is the major hydro-metrological hazard in the study Damot have floods but the average speed on set is one area and is of various kinds, the cloud burst flood, flash and half hou,thus causing less harm to the communities. flood, glacial lake outburst floods and the river flood. The frequency of floods is usually 2 to 3 times
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