Turbulence Ahead

A new discussion paper by the Institute shows that we are going to have to drastically re-think the role of aviation in society. Authors Andrew Macintosh and Christian Downie explain why. Although aviation’s current 2006 and 2025. In Australia, domestic contribution to global warming is and international air passenger dwarfed by the impact of electricity numbers are expected to double in the generation, vehicle emissions and next 15 years. State and federal agriculture, it threatens to become a governments have vigorously No. 51 June 2007 major contributor in the future. supported the expansion of airports Turbulence ahead and related infrastructure to If left unchecked, growth in aviation accommodate the growth in air traffic. Andrew Macintosh and Christian Downie emissions could derail global efforts Universities and fossil fuel to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. capture Since the 1950s, the aviation industry Australians cannot Christian Downie has experienced astronomical growth. expect to fly more Silencing dissent: The Federal Between 1960 and the mid-1990s, air than they currently Government strikes passenger traffic grew by almost nine do today. per cent per year, 2.4 times the average James Arvanitakis growth rate of GDP. Grassroots campaign against sexualisation of children Since that time, the growth rate has Continued growth in the airline been dampened by the East Asian industry conflicts with the need to Julie Gale financial crisis, the September 11 sharply reduce greenhouse gas See Paris and Die? attacks and SARS. However, the emissions. Steve Biddulph industry has rebounded strongly, with The evidence suggests that, to avoid Academic economists call for passenger traffic growing by more than dangerous climate change, global Kyoto ratification five per cent a year since 2004. greenhouse gas emissions will have Clive Hamilton to be cut by between 25 and 70 per Insuring against catastrophic cent on 2005 levels by 2050 and by a change higher proportion in developed countries like Australia. Peter Dixon and Philip Adams gets shifty on Australian growth nukes To investigate whether the aviation Andrew Macintosh industry could continue under Which greenhouse strategy do business-as-usual conditions in a carbon-constrained world, we you prefer? projected aviation emissions from 2005 Andrew Macintosh Unless policies are introduced to curb to 2050 and compared the results to 60 Aviation report sparks strong demand, aviation is expected to per cent and 80 per cent emission reactions continue to grow strongly. reduction targets. Airbus predicts global passenger In projecting emissions, we had to Institute Notes traffic, boosted by the success of account for the uncertainties discount airlines, will grow by an associated with the impacts of the average of 4.8 per cent a year between different gases emitted by aircraft. THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE

The three main aviation emissions The use of uplift factors is If the reduction target is set at 80 per are carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen controversial because of the cent below 2000 levels by 2050, aviation oxides and water vapour. CO2 is a uncertainties associated with non- could account for more than Australia’s direct greenhouse gas that mixes well CO2 aviation emissions. entire emission allowance at 2050. in the atmosphere and its impacts on No techno-fix the climate are relatively well- understood. Aviation could Unlike many other emission-intensive account for more industries where technologies to cut However, non-CO2 emissions are not emissions are available or anticipated, so well-understood. Most non-CO2 than Australia’s no technological options to aviation emissions have short entire emission substantially reduce aviation emissions atmospheric lifetimes and their allowance at 2050. are on the horizon. impacts vary depending on when and where they are released. There is also And even if unforeseen technological uncertainty about the nature of the However, there is a consensus that solutions emerge, it will take decades atmospheric effects of non-CO2 the impacts of aviation are for them to be implemented. As a result, aviation emissions. substantially greater than suggested reducing aviation’s impact on the by measurements based solely on climate requires a constraint to be put Due to these uncertainties, it is very emissions of the direct greenhouse on demand. In short, we are going to difficult to measure their impacts and gases included in the national totals have to fly less. to compare them to CO2 and other under the UNFCCC/Kyoto regime. direct greenhouse gases. From the outset, the introduction of an Our projections used three main emissions trading scheme in Australia Uplift factors scenarios: two with uplift factors (US1 should include CO2 emissions from As a result, non-CO2 aviation and US2) and one without (NU1). The aviation, as well as the imposition of a emissions are generally excluded results are shown in the figure. mandatory change on non-CO2 from national totals in reports aviation emissions. It is apparent that, if the Australian prepared under the United Nations aviation sector is allowed to continue These market mechanisms should also Framework Convention on Climate to operate under business-as-usual be complemented with more direct Change. Non-CO2 aviation emissions conditions and the Federal intervention including performance are also excluded from the targets Government adopts a target of standards for new aircraft. under the Kyoto Protocol. reducing emissions to 60 per cent The investment saved from restrictions To account for the impacts of non- below 2000 levels by the middle of on the expansion of the aviation CO2 emissions, ‘uplift factors’ are this century, aviation could account industry will need to be redirected into sometimes used. CO2 emissions from for between 32 and 51 per cent of the alternative modes of transport, aviation are multiplied by the relevant total greenhouse gas allowance by including high-speed rail, and uplift factor to provide an estimate of 2050. telecommunications infrastructure. total aviation emissions. Irrespective of which policy Greenhouse gas emissions under various scenarios in Mt instruments are implemented to curtail aviation emissions, 600 Australians cannot expect to fly more than they currently do today. 500 Unless there is a major technological breakthrough 400 presently not foreseeable, the amount of air travel will need 300 to be stabilised and ultimately reduced.

200 We recognise that these proposals are likely to elicit howls of protest from the 100 aviation industry, and dismissive comments from 0 government, but here as in 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Europe the facts point to one conclusion only - we must cut back on the amount of flying if we are to tackle climate 60% reduction target 80% reduction target NU1 US1 US2 change. n

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Universities and fossil fuel capture Is there a problem with the University of Queensland having the Xstrata Chair of Metallurgical Engineering or Curtin University having the Woodside Hydrocarbon Research Facility? These questions are explored in a new Institute discussion paper. Co-author Christian Downie explains. Over the last decade the fossil fuel and research at Australian industries have become steadily more universities. involved in Australian universities. For teaching the concern is that Fossil fuel industry associations and industry’s preference for flexible and fossil fuel companies have spent targeted degrees and courses will lead millions of dollars funding research to curriculums increasingly tailored to projects and sponsoring university the short-term needs of industry, chairs, academic posts and even which may narrow the education entire schools. received by students. Are Australian universities For example, the sponsorship of some In , relationships captured? university chairs and academic posts between universities and the fossil has been used to oversee the But is this a problem? Are Australian fuel industries are dominated by oil development of degree structures and universities being ‘captured’? Are and gas companies. course content. fossil fuel companies gaining an The Chancellors of both the inappropriate level of influence over University of Western Australia and the teaching and research priorities Applied research in Curtin University are current directors of universities? Is academic freedom of major oil and gas companies, the private interest in jeopardy? Woodside and Coogee Resources. could crowd out basic The increasing close relationships research in the public In fact, Woodside is a major sponsor between Australian universities and interest. of the School of Oil and Gas the fossil fuel industries are evident Engineering at the University of from a few examples. Western Australia. Further, evidence from the University of Western Australia indicates that It established the School in 2000 with fossil fuel sponsors ‘approved the The concern is that a $1 million grant and it has provided rationale for restructure’ of the academics may almost $2 million to create two chairs. undergraduate program at the School Woodside personnel sit on the refrain from making of Oil and Gas Engineering. critical remarks about University advisory boards, the practices of committees and many have In 2005, the School estimated that companies. participated in the School’s teaching about 70 industry representatives had and research programs. been involved in the development, coordination and teaching of oil and Woodside is also prominent at Curtin gas units at an estimated cost of The School of Engineering at the University. Curtin is home to the $600,000 to industry per year. University of Queensland hosts the Woodside Hydrocarbon Research Xstrata Chair of Metallurgical Facility and the Chair of Hydrocarbon One of the roles of university lecturers Engineering, the BHP Billiton Research both funded by Woodside. and researchers in mining and Mitsubishi Alliance Chair of Mining It is also the location for the Western engineering schools is to use their Engineering, the BHP Billiton Australian Energy Research Alliance, expertise to assess and comment on Mitsubishi Alliance Chair of Minerals a joint venture funded in part by the practices of industry. Processing and the Chair of Mining Woodside and Chevron Texaco. The concern is that academics may Safety founded by Rio Tinto and other Woodside’s funding of the refrain from making critical remarks to fossil fuel companies. Hydrocarbon Research Facility was their students, governments or the Many of these chairs are used by the criticised in 2005 after it was revealed public about the practices of fossil fuel companies to ‘oversee and in the press that the University made companies or industries with which guide’ the degree structures and a $20,000 donation to the Kurdistan they or their university have a course materials. Regional Government in Iraq on behalf financial association. of Woodside. Moreover, it is largely the same Indeed in 2005 the administration at companies that fund some of the Academic freedom Curtin University ‘expressed their research projects undertaken in the unhappiness’ when a professor at the The extent of these relationships School and its associated research raises particular concerns for teaching Continued on page 4 centres.

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university spoke publicly about For example, the Sustainable Minerals commercial interests penetrate Alcoa’s funding of the Alcoa Research Institute at the University of decision-making in universities. Centre For Stronger Communities at Queensland states that its business Consequently, it is important for the University, at the same time as the ‘is research for, and in the closest universities to have in place company was being criticised in the possible association with, the minerals structures that keep the activities of media over pollution from one of its industry’. universities and their staff plants damaging the health of a local As far back as 1996, a researcher at transparent and accountable. community. another centre at the University of These could include a registry where In the case of research, the primary Queensland claimed that ‘part of the universities disclose relevant concern is that short-term applied attraction for the companies is that interests and contacts with industry, research in the private interest could they have a very big say on how we and clear ethical guidelines to insulate crowd out basic research in the public conduct our research’. universities and their staff from interest. Several academics have pointed out commercial pressures and conflicts. Basic research is important because it that the key challenge is finding Without such structures and with the provides the foundation for scientific research problems the fossil fuel increasingly close relationships advancement and training and acts as industries view as worthwhile and between Australian universities and the body of scientific knowledge that therefore are likely to fund. commercial organisations, it is likely underpins more applied research. More transparency academic freedom will be jeopardised, However, a number of the schools and if it has not been already. The evidence uncovered by the centres with ties to the fossil fuel Institute indicates that there are As this happens universities could be industry are heavily geared towards grounds for concern that universities brought into disrepute and even short-term research for the sponsoring could be captured and that academic captured by the fossil fuel and other industry or company. freedom could be compromised as industries. n

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Silencing dissent: The Federal Government strikes In their recent book Silencing Dissent, Sarah Maddison and Clive Hamilton warned that many NGOs remain concerned that there could be a crackdown on their charitable status. As James Arvanitakis reports, Aid/Watch appears to be the first casualty. Aid/Watch is an independent maintenance, support, research, has application for the charitable watchdog for Australia’s aid program. improvement or enhancement’. sector as a whole. Established in 1995, the organisation It acknowledged non-party political With this ruling, the distinction was founded to shine a spotlight on activity as acceptable for charities, between purpose and activities is the way increasing amounts of aid provided it ‘furthers or are in aid of, dissolved – Aid/Watch’s uncharit- were being delivered for profit rather the charity’s dominant charitable able political purpose is inferred by than poverty alleviation. purpose’. its activities. Consequently, Aid/Watch has often In 2005 an ATO ruling banned charities been critical of government policy from having a purpose of ‘promoting a The new ATO ruling related to trade, aid and debt. particular point of view’. establishes a Aid/Watch produces and At the same time, it stated that political worrying precedent. disseminates information to raise activities in pursuit of a charitable public awareness about development purpose were acceptable, provided issues, engaging in public education In this context, any political activity, ‘political activities are no more than and community outreach programs. It even signing a petition against the ways of carrying out the charitable also monitors and comments on military dictatorship in Burma, can put purposes’. Australian Government aid, trade and an organisation in breach of its debt policies, seeking to ensure they In October 2006 an ATO decision charitable status. are consistent with United Nations’ removed charitable status from Aid/ Aid/Watch is a very small charitable sustainability principles. Watch. In its Decision the Tax Office organisation, with an annual income recognised that Aid/Watch’s All charities threatened below $100,000, and the removal of objectives are entirely charitable. charitable status threatens its very Earlier this year, the Australian Tax However, it cited three activities of the existence. Office revoked Aid/Watch’s charitable organisation that it believed were not status in a decision that seriously consistent with charitable status: A new appeal was submitted in early threatens the public role of all May 2007. The basis for this appeal 1. participation in joint campaigns Australian charities. is that the ATO has breached its own to promote human rights and 2005 ruling by confusing purpose In an ATO ruling, Aid/Watch has lost democracy in Burma; with activities, and that the purpose its ability to act as a charity for ‘trying 2. participation in efforts to of Aid/Watch is indeed charitable. to procure changes in Australia’s aid convey concerns about the Free-Trade and development programs’ and for The new ATO ruling establishes a Agreement between Australia and the being a ‘political’ organisation. worrying precedent that charities USA; cannot engage in ‘any activity 3. involvement in a media event designed to change Australian Aid/Watch is a very highlighting the environmental impacts Government laws, policies or small charitable of World Bank programs. decisions. Neither can charities organisation...and engage in propagating or promoting The ATO alleged these three activities the removal of a particular point of view’. charitable status sat outside the ATO definition of acceptable political activities for a It is hard to avoid the conclusion that threatens its very charity. Though Aid/Watch appealed the crack-down on charities is existence. in April 2007, the ATO upheld its designed to silence organisations original decision. whose advocacy work the Federal Since 2000, there has been a flurry of Government does not like. It therefore The ATO’s new ruling in response to Federal Government reviews of the poses a grave threat to civil society the appeal goes even further by form that charities take. and the health of our democracy. defining the purpose of the n The 2001 Inquiry into the Definition organisation through activities such as Dr James Arvanitakis teaches at the of Charities and Related Organisations these. University of Western Sydney and is recommended that ‘charitable For the ATO, such activities now define a Member of Aid/Watch’s Committee purpose’ be broadly defined as for an organisation, thus Aid/Watch can of Management. public benefit, including ‘protection, not be considered a charity. This ruling See: www.aidwatch.org.au.

5 THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE Grassroots campaign against the sexualisation of children Julie Gale, a Melbourne mother and performer, has attracted huge support for her campaign against the sexualisation of children. Here she explains the genesis of a new organisation called Kids Free to Be Kids (Kf2bK). Over the years, I’ve become more Barbara Biggins and her team provide and more frustrated at how much a wealth of wisdom and expertise and sexualised imagery my children are are also able to receive sponsorship being bombarded with, through and philanthropic money, which is so media, billboards, television, music vital to running a successful video clips, kids magazines, clothing, campaign. toys and so on. It’s been a steep learning curve. I’m Graphic billboards at the end of my still learning about our regulatory residential street have been a great bodies and, as a parent, I believe self- source of annoyance. One stated My list of examples is long. I’m no regulation is currently failing our boldly ‘SEX FOR LIFE’. prude. I’m a fun adult who enjoys life. children. Billboard advertising is not I write comedy for goodness sakes. vetted before it goes out to the public Another featured a man standing And I have no problem talking about against a bed (back towards camera) domain. Where is the consultation sexuality with my kids, when I feel they with child development experts? apparently with his fly undone. A are ready for it. woman sitting in the bed stares back Young kids magazines have no at him with supposed shock and With a background in writing and regulation whatsoever. Our tween delight, at what we can only guess performing, I decided to write a one market is worth 4 billion dollars per is a ‘STRONGA LONGA DONGA.’ woman show about the sexualisation year to the Australian economy – with of children. I spoke with many parents The thing that bothers me most so much money at stake, who’s while researching material, and looking after the welfare of our kids? about this ad is not the discovered that I was not alone in my PREMATURE EJACULATION or concerns. Evidence of harm ERECTION PROBLEM wording, but the fact that the ‘woman’ looks no When The Australia Institute’s Recently, I witnessed first hand, older than 14 years. Corporate Paedophilia discussion highly sexualised and completely paper was published, I immediately inappropriate images posted by contacted Dr Emma Rush. I think her computer savvy 11 yr old girls on their Children are research has been instrumental in websites. This is not uncommon. reportedly encouraging a mostly silent public to experimenting Children are reportedly experimenting start speaking out. sexually at a much younger age – and sexually at a much according to many social workers, oral younger age. One line in the paper particularly grabbed my attention: ‘... there has, as sex in the first year of high school is yet, been no sustained public debate also not uncommon. Sexually It’s tricky answering questions about about the sexualisation of children in transmitted infections, depression, male sexual dysfunction with kids Australia.’ There seemed to be people anxiety, and eating disorders are all who haven’t even processed talking and writing about the issue, but increasing in our kids’ lives. information about a normal there was no apparent co-ordinated Psychologists, psychiatrists and functioning sex life yet. campaign. social workers working at the coalface When my kids were very young, I A new campaign with young children are concerned. They see, both from a research base, heard them listening to music and It was an easy decision to scrap the giggling wildly to the lyrics ‘Oooh I and from their clinical experience, one-woman show and turn my strong evidence of harm. Concerns am so sexy, soft and smooth’, only attention to raising public awareness. to discover it was a song on my six- from many segments of the community year old daughter’s ‘Barbie Pool I formed Kf2bK, with the dedicated help should not be misconstrued as ‘moral Party’ CD. I thought, ‘Something’s from two other mothers at my children’s panic’. wrong here’. school. We joined forces with Young When The Sunday Age and Today Media Australia, who have been Tonight first mentioned the campaign, Someone in a board room committed to the healthy development somewhere, has decided that it’s OK we were amazed at the extraordinary of children in the media for over 50 reaction. We received many hundreds for this song to go on a CD for very years. young girls’. of supportive emails from a cross-

6 THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE section of the community, including The advertising industry purports to Kids free 2b Kids and Young Media contact from America and France. reflect community values; by building Australia are committed to children our numbers we intend to demonstrate developing to their full potential - Kf2bK calls for people to register their exactly what those values really are. without exposure to sexualized names on our website. This is a imagery before they are develop- powerful way for individuals to join It’s time we adults started taking mentally ready to process it. n the debate and to help us build our responsibility for what our kids are community body of evidence. being exposed to. You can read more about Julie’s organisation at www.kf2bk.com See Paris and die? Few people are willing to defend the rampant sexualisation of children in marketing and popular culture. Duncan Fine, co-author of Why TV is Good For Kids, did so recently in The Australian where he lauded Paris Hilton as a role model for young girls. Here, Steve Biddulph responds.

Duncan Fine’s admiration of Paris wavered, drifted, and seeped away in satisfy. You get used and thrown Hilton makes all the sense in the a miasma of academic self indulgence away. world. She stands for the same values and careerism, while girls and young he does, a total addiction to being women are still being trashed by the The real concern, and the most noticed. A lack of clear thinking. An lack of real mentors and helpers important focus we must draw here is inability to construct a coherent life through the dangerous passage to that adolescent girls are having less beyond simply getting in the papers. adulthood. and less time with older women who could help and teach and simply The real person that is Paris Hilton, Paris represents the clear and present support them - mothers, sisters, aunts, the little girl she once was and the old danger that all affluent young women teachers - and more and more time with woman she one day will be, would in a face - what happens to a human being screens and magazines. better world be left alone. who has no centre. Paris Hilton did not make her own image, as Duncan We should look away as we should Fine thinks. She simply fell into the We need to take when a drunken woman exposes nearest, deepest pothole. She’s the better care of our herself. Caring friends should take her Paris we had to have. home. girls. The icon Paris was crafted over time But the Paris Hilton we all know is not by a thousand journalists, columnists, a person. She’s an icon, and we make They are easy prey for marketers, and photo editors, who saw someone our icons from deep unconscious marketers have slunk in like hyenas really screwing up in a very public places, to reflect our times, to help us to drag them down. way, despite a huge monetary start in struggle with large forces. life, and couldn’t resist satirising Sexuality is an empowering and them. beautiful force in adolescence, when Sexuality as a the adolescent chooses and controls As a result, she’s seen by the adult its eventual unfolding on their own commodity is a world with scorn, derision, and terms. terrible thing to boredom, in about equal amounts. build an identity on. She’s fascinating in the way a slowly When it’s separated out as a way to unfolding bus crash is fascinating. get love, for those who are not loved enough, then lives, tens of thousands So Nelson Mandela stands for The recent and important concern of lives, are diminished, harmed, and courage and endurance. Tony Blair for about sexualising children, corporate sometimes thrown away. style before substance. George Bush paedophilia as it is quite accurately for venal stupidity, and the terrible called, arises from our mismanagement We need to see clearly what Paris destructive power of greed. Back of sex and the disappearance of love Hilton represents. We also need to home, Julia Gillard might stand for in our society. remember every day the image of two intelligent womanhood. Kevin Rudd soft-faced young girls’ corpses Sexuality as a commodity is a terrible for a fragile, but yearned for, future of swinging from the limb of a mountain thing to build an identity on - it has all better values. John Howard for looking ash tree overlooking Melbourne’s city but destroyed Elle McPherson, and after number one. lights. We need to take better care of it’s endangering our beloved Kylie. our girls. n The great soap opera of our lives is It’s about the outside, whereas played out by these archetypes who Steve Biddulph is a psychologist personhood is about the inside. It’s represent our collective lives. We need and the author of a number of best- the advertising lie laid bare. It doesn’t a Paris Hilton because feminism has selling books on parenting.

7 THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE Academic economists call for Kyoto ratification Last month, 75 professors of economics called on the Federal Government to stop under- mining international efforts to tackle climate change and to ratify the Kyoto Protocol without delay.

The professors are among 271 university economists who signed a statement drawing attention to the economic damage to Australia of failing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The full statement is reproduced below, and the list of signatories can be seen on the Australia Institute’s website (www.tai.org.au).

A Statement by University Economists on Climate Change

1. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has determined that warming of the world’s climate is ‘unequivocal’ and that it is almost certainly due to human activity. It expects that further warming will occur, leading to sea-level rise and changes in weather patterns most of which will be adverse. This finding is supported by the leading scientific bodies of the world, including the CSIRO and the Australian Academy of Science.

2. The IPCC and the CSIRO anticipate that Australia will be seriously affected by climate change including more heat waves, fires of greater intensity, reduced soil moisture, declining water security, greater risks to life and property from sea-level rise and storms, risks to major infrastructure from extreme events and substantial impacts on agriculture and forestry.

3. Global climate change carries with it serious environmental, economic and social risks and preventive steps are urgently needed. Policy measures are available that would greatly reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases at modest economic cost. Credible estimates suggest that a 50% emissions reduction is achievable for less than one year’s growth.

4. Economic instruments - such as carbon taxes or emissions trading - should be an important part of a comprehensive climate change policy. Revenue raised from carbon taxes or the sale of permits can be used to reduce taxes elsewhere in the economy.

5. A major change in our emissions-related activities can be achieved over an extended period of transition. Australia has shown over the last two decades that it can manage significant change without major negative consequences for incomes or employment and, in fact, with change being a stimulus to improving innovation in the longer term.

6. Since developed countries are responsible for around 75% of increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and are in a stronger economic position, they should take the lead in cutting emissions. It is fair that developing countries should begin reducing their emissions only when developed countries, including Australia, have led the way.

7. The Kyoto Protocol represents the first step towards a major international effort to deal with climate change in the long term. The refusal by Australia and the United States to ratify the Kyoto Protocol is undermining global efforts to tackle climate change.

8. In addition to demonstrating international leadership befitting one of the richest countries in the world, it is in Australia’s economic interests to join the primary international effort to effort to cut emissions and we call on the Australian Government to ratify the Kyoto Protocol without delay. This should be complemented by domestic initiatives dedicated to emissions reduction.

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Insuring against catastrophic change On May 11, while the economists’ statement was being circulated to academics, The Australian carried an opinion piece attacking it by two anti-Kyoto economists, Alex Robson of ANU and Sinclair Davidson of RMIT. Peter Dixon and Philip Adams - the former and current directors of the Centre of Policy Studies at Monash University - have written a reply. The Australian refused to publish it, so we reproduce it below. We have signed the economists’ lower cost. Taking account of non- statement for three connected linearities (the first 1% cut is much reasons: easier than the last 1% cut), a 1. compelling advice from the reasonable estimate for the cost of the scientific community suggests that a 50% cut mentioned in the petition is sharp cut in world greenhouse gas 12 month’s growth. (GHG) emissions would substantially Why do modelling results suggest reduce the risk of catastrophic climate that GHG emissions could be sharply change over the next century; reduced at seemingly moderate cost? 2. the Kyoto forum offers the Are these results plausible? best available possibility for Australia The main GHG-emitting activities are to play a constructive role in setting exercises for Australian and overseas fossil-fuel-based provision of up world-wide arrangements for organizations on the costs of GHG electricity and motor fuels. In cutting GHG emissions; and reductions. Our modelling, and that Australia, these account for about 3. as part of a world-wide effort, of other quantitative economists 5.4% of GDP. around the world, supports the claim Australia could achieve deep cuts in Advice from scientists and engineers in the petition that: its own GHG emissions at only a indicates that the adoption of current moderate cost in terms of reduced “Credible estimates suggest that a alternatives to fossil-fuel-based economic welfare. 50% emissions reduction is technologies would no more than It is on point (3) that economists have achievable for less than one year’s double the costs of electricity and particular expertise, justifying the economic growth”. motor fuels. presentation of an “economists” Robson and Davidson have difficulty As a back-of-the envelope calculation, petition. in figuring out what this means. Just this suggests that Australia could to be clear, we will explain it in terms make a 50% switch to alternative of the report by the Allen Consulting technologies at a cost of 2.7 per cent If the world embraced Group to the Business Roundtable on of GDP, a little over an average year’s the need for deep Climate Change (March, 2006). growth. cuts in GHG Modelling we contributed to that But this is a pessimistic view of the emmissions, we report shows Australia’s real GDP costs of climate insurance. If the world would expect rapid growing between now and 2050 at an embraced the need for deep cuts in technological annual rate of 2.2% under the GHG emissions, we would expect rapid progress...which assumption of no new GHG policies. technical progress in GHG-benign would reduce the In this scenario, Australia’s GHG technologies which would reduce the costs of adoption. emissions by 2050 are 80% above their costs of their adoption. n level in 2000.

Cutting GHG emissions is like buying In an alternative scenario, Australia an insurance policy: we incur a cost (a undertakes policies to reduce its GHG loss in GDP) to reduce a risk emissions by 2050 to 60% below their (catastrophic climate change). level in 2000. Even with this very deep cut in emissions, Australia’s GDP In any insurance decision, the cost grows between now and 2050 at an matters. If a worthwhile reduction in annual rate of 2.1 per cent. risk costs 50% of income, then living with the risk may be preferable. But if The implication is that a massive 60% it costs 1% of income, then taking the cut in GHG emissions (relative to the insurance policy may be the best 2000 level) costs about 20 months option. So what will it cost? growth – the level of GDP that we would have reached on January 1, For the last 20 years, we have been 2050 is not reached until September Nicholson of “The Australian” newspaper. undertaking economic modelling 1, 2051. A lesser cut would incur a www.nicholsoncartoons.com.au

9 THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE The Australian gets shifty on nukes Fiddling the numbers is not something normally associated with newspapers but, as Andrew Macintosh explains, it seems that is what The Australian newspaper has been up to. As reported in the previous commissioned to conduct Newsletter in March, The Australian a survey on attitudes to nuclear power newspaper carried several stories using the same question as had been about a Newspoll survey it had asked in the original surveys. commissioned, which it claimed showed there had been a dramatic The results show there has not been reversal of attitudes towards nuclear a ‘dramatic shift’ in attitudes as power in Australia. claimed by The Australian. According to The Australian, more The number opposed to nuclear people now support nuclear power power remains substantially larger than oppose it, a turnaround from than the number who support it - 46 previous Newspoll surveys per cent versus 36 per cent. conducted in May and December 2006. Nicholson of “The Australian” newspaper. www.nicholsoncartoons.com.au The level of support The lead story, entitled ‘Nation warms The question asked by Newspoll for for nuclear power has to nuclear future’ was written by The Australian in March 2007 was as remained fairly stable Dennis Shanahan and Sid Marris. It follows: since May 2006. was reported widely and has influenced political attitudes to ‘Thinking now about nuclear power. reducing greenhouse gas emissions to In fact, the level of support for nuclear help address climate change. Are you power has remained fairly stable since personally in favour or against the May 2006. The results show that development of a nuclear power there has not been a The only change has been a small industry in Australia, as one of a range decrease in opposition (from 50 per ‘dramatic shift’ in of energy solutions to help reduce cent to 46 per cent) as some attitudes as claimed by greenhouse gas emissions?’ Australians toward being The Australian. The framing of the two questions is undecided rather than being in favour not the same. of nuclear power. (In these polls, the margin of error is three per cent.) As a result of the articles in The The second question frames the Australian and the coverage they nuclear question in terms of the need Consistent with previous surveys, we attracted, many opinion makers, to cut greenhouse gas emissions and found opposition to nuclear power is politicians and journalists now puts it forward as but one of a range highest amongst women (55 per cent), believe Australians are warming to of solutions. the young (49 per cent) and middle- nuclear power. aged (49 per cent), parents (50 per Framing bias is a standard concept in However, the story in The Australian cent), and people from middle-income surveying, and it is unlikely Newspoll households (49 per cent). seriously misrepresented the would endorse comparison of two Newspoll results. The ‘dramatic questions framed in differing ways. Despite the slight shift in opinions reversal’ claimed by The Australian and higher levels of support for is explained not by a real change in The Australian has been campaigning nuclear power seen in some groups, attitudes but by the fact that the strongly in favour of nuclear power in the proportion of Australians who are newspaper compared the results of Australia since the Prime Minister strongly opposed to nuclear power, two different survey questions. called for a public debate last year. 31 per cent, is still almost double that The Newspoll surveys conducted in On the basis of the Newspoll results it which is strongly in favour, 16 per May and December 2006 asked: is impossible to make any valid claim cent. about changing attitudes to nuclear The Howard Government has ‘[c]urrently, while there is a power. nuclear reactor at Lucas Heights in signalled its intention to run a Sydney used for medical and A valid comparison campaign to promote nuclear energy. scientific purposes, there are no To test the validity of The Australian’s However, the evidence suggests the nuclear power stations in Australia. claims about the reversal of public Government has a considerable Are you personally in favour or opinion, and to correct the public amount of work to do if its aim is to against nuclear power stations being record, the Australia Institute win public support for its nuclear built in Australia?’ strategy. n

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Which greenhouse strategy do you prefer? In recent months much commentary has surrounded the Government’s preferred greenhouse strategy. In a new survey, the Institute explored what Australians really prefer. Andrew Macintosh reports. The Federal Government’s green- Only 19 per cent of Australians prefer For example, an AC Nielson poll house policy is mainly based on the the Government’s approach that conducted on behalf of the Sydney promotion of nuclear energy and focuses on nuclear power and clean Morning Herald in November 2006 clean coal technology. coal technologies. found that 62 per cent of Australians Although the policy includes some Even among Coalition voters, the are unhappy with the Federal measures to promote alternatives like number of people who prefer a Government’s response to climate energy efficiency and renewable strategy mainly based on energy change. energy, these are viewed as secondary efficiency and renewable energy (60 Part of the reason for the discontent with most of the public debate per cent) greatly outweighs the may relate to the nuclear power/clean directed towards clean coal and number preferring the nuclear coal strategy that the Government has nuclear power. power/clean coal approach (35 per adopted. cent). The widespread support for There is widespread The desire for an alternative approach renewable energy and a greenhouse support for renewable to climate change is also reflected in policy that places greater emphasis on energy and a the data on people’s preferred source energy efficiency also bolsters the greenhouse policy of electricity. case for increasing the Mandatory that places greater As the pie chart shows, seventy Renewable Energy Target (MRET). emphahsis on energy seven per cent of Australians would At present, MRET will only result in efficiency. prefer to get their electricity from a an additional 0.5 per cent of electricity renewable power source. being supplied by renewable power To gauge the level of public support Solar and wind attract the most sources on 1997 levels by 2010 – an for the Government’s greenhouse support (50 and 13 per cent res- underwhelming target by any strategy, the Australia Institute pectively), but a substantial number measure. commissioned Pollinate to conduct an of people also prefer other renewable To promote the uptake of renewable online survey of 1,034 adult energy sources like hydro, geothermal energy and bring forward reductions Australians. and biomass (14 per cent collectively). in the cost of renewable energy, there Respondents were asked which of the In comparison, only a small number have been calls to increase and extend following two strategies they would of people would prefer to get their or the MRET, calls that have fallen on prefer: coal (one per cent). deaf ears. · a strategy based mainly on the These results provide an insight into The results of the Institute’s survey development of nuclear power and the dissatisfaction recorded in other indicate that such a policy is likely to clean coal technology which would surveys about the Federal be supported by a large majority of reduce greenhouse gas emissions Government’s greenhouse policy. the population. n from coal-fired power plants; or Preferred source of electricity · a strategy based mainly on saving energy through greater use of 8% energy efficient appliances, fuel efficient cars and more energy 7% efficient buildings and the Renewables development of renewable energy options like solar and wind power. 8% They were also asked to select their Nuclear preferred source of electricity from a list of renewable and non-renewable options. Fossil fuel The vast majority of Australians (74 per cent) would prefer a greenhouse strategy based mainly on energy Don’t know efficiency and renewable energy. 77%

11 THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE Institute notes New publications A. Macintosh, Attitudes to Nuclear Power. Are they shifting? Research Paper 43, May 2007 A. Macintosh and C. Downie, A Flight Risk? Aviation and climate change in Australia Discussion Paper 94, May 2007 C. Hamilton, Scorcher: The dirty politics of climate change Black Inc. April 2007 Forthcoming publications C. Hamilton and C. Downie, University Capture: Australian universities and the fossil fuel industries E. Rush and C. Hamilton, Kids and Consumerism C. Downie, Carbon Offsets A. Macintosh and C. Hamilton, Greenhouse Strategies: What do Australians prefer?

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Aviation report sparks strong Scorcher: The dirty politics of reactions climate change The Australia Institute’s aviation aviation industry will become an report (see page 1) received wide- international pariah if it does not This latest book by our spread media coverage when it was accept its inclusion in an emissions Executive Director, Dr Clive released in late May. trading scheme. Hamilton, has already appeared on the Independent Both the Federal Government and Sir Rod Eddington’s observations Bookshop’s best seller list and sectors of the aviation industry took stand in stark contrast to the is in its first reprint.. swipes at the conclusions of the dismissive comments by the report which recommends aviation Government and sectors of the In Scorcher, Clive Hamilton carbon dioxide emissions be included industry and strongly support the reveals a shadow world of in a national emissions trading conclusions of the report, which will lobbyists and sceptics, spin scheme. no doubt be unremarkable in Australia and hidden agendas. within two years, as they already are The Deputy Prime Minister, Mark in Europe. He investigates a deceitful Vaile, attacked the report as ‘whacky’, government and a compliant saying an increase in the cost of air The recommendations of The media. And he lays out the travel would ‘wreck the economy’. Australia Institute and Sir Rod facts about Kyoto, carbon Eddington to include aviation emissions and what Virgin Blue also attempted to ridicule emissions in an emissions trading governments and individuals the report, with the Chief Executive scheme have been backed by the new might do, and have done. saying, “I just don’t fathom what they British Government Energy White are on about.” Paper, which states: “The Government Copies of the book are still believes that the best way for aviation available at the Institute so However, a week after the report was to contribute to the goal of emissions please contact us if you would released former head, reduction is through a well-designed like to purchase one. Sir Rod Eddington, warned that the emissions trading scheme.” n

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