Turbulence Ahead A new discussion paper by the Institute shows that we are going to have to drastically re-think the role of aviation in society. Authors Andrew Macintosh and Christian Downie explain why. Although aviation’s current 2006 and 2025. In Australia, domestic contribution to global warming is and international air passenger dwarfed by the impact of electricity numbers are expected to double in the generation, vehicle emissions and next 15 years. State and federal agriculture, it threatens to become a governments have vigorously No. 51 June 2007 major contributor in the future. supported the expansion of airports Turbulence ahead and related infrastructure to If left unchecked, growth in aviation accommodate the growth in air traffic. Andrew Macintosh and Christian Downie emissions could derail global efforts Universities and fossil fuel to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. capture Since the 1950s, the aviation industry Australians cannot Christian Downie has experienced astronomical growth. expect to fly more Silencing dissent: The Federal Between 1960 and the mid-1990s, air than they currently Government strikes passenger traffic grew by almost nine do today. per cent per year, 2.4 times the average James Arvanitakis growth rate of GDP. Grassroots campaign against sexualisation of children Since that time, the growth rate has Continued growth in the airline been dampened by the East Asian industry conflicts with the need to Julie Gale financial crisis, the September 11 sharply reduce greenhouse gas See Paris and Die? attacks and SARS. However, the emissions. Steve Biddulph industry has rebounded strongly, with The evidence suggests that, to avoid Academic economists call for passenger traffic growing by more than dangerous climate change, global Kyoto ratification five per cent a year since 2004. greenhouse gas emissions will have Clive Hamilton to be cut by between 25 and 70 per Insuring against catastrophic cent on 2005 levels by 2050 and by a change higher proportion in developed countries like Australia. Peter Dixon and Philip Adams The Australian gets shifty on Australian growth nukes To investigate whether the aviation Andrew Macintosh industry could continue under Which greenhouse strategy do business-as-usual conditions in a carbon-constrained world, we you prefer? projected aviation emissions from 2005 Andrew Macintosh Unless policies are introduced to curb to 2050 and compared the results to 60 Aviation report sparks strong demand, aviation is expected to per cent and 80 per cent emission reactions continue to grow strongly. reduction targets. Airbus predicts global passenger In projecting emissions, we had to Institute Notes traffic, boosted by the success of account for the uncertainties discount airlines, will grow by an associated with the impacts of the average of 4.8 per cent a year between different gases emitted by aircraft. THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE The three main aviation emissions The use of uplift factors is If the reduction target is set at 80 per are carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen controversial because of the cent below 2000 levels by 2050, aviation oxides and water vapour. CO2 is a uncertainties associated with non- could account for more than Australia’s direct greenhouse gas that mixes well CO2 aviation emissions. entire emission allowance at 2050. in the atmosphere and its impacts on No techno-fix the climate are relatively well- understood. Aviation could Unlike many other emission-intensive account for more industries where technologies to cut However, non-CO2 emissions are not emissions are available or anticipated, so well-understood. Most non-CO2 than Australia’s no technological options to aviation emissions have short entire emission substantially reduce aviation emissions atmospheric lifetimes and their allowance at 2050. are on the horizon. impacts vary depending on when and where they are released. There is also And even if unforeseen technological uncertainty about the nature of the However, there is a consensus that solutions emerge, it will take decades atmospheric effects of non-CO2 the impacts of aviation are for them to be implemented. As a result, aviation emissions. substantially greater than suggested reducing aviation’s impact on the by measurements based solely on climate requires a constraint to be put Due to these uncertainties, it is very emissions of the direct greenhouse on demand. In short, we are going to difficult to measure their impacts and gases included in the national totals have to fly less. to compare them to CO2 and other under the UNFCCC/Kyoto regime. direct greenhouse gases. From the outset, the introduction of an Our projections used three main emissions trading scheme in Australia Uplift factors scenarios: two with uplift factors (US1 should include CO2 emissions from As a result, non-CO2 aviation and US2) and one without (NU1). The aviation, as well as the imposition of a emissions are generally excluded results are shown in the figure. mandatory change on non-CO2 from national totals in reports aviation emissions. It is apparent that, if the Australian prepared under the United Nations aviation sector is allowed to continue These market mechanisms should also Framework Convention on Climate to operate under business-as-usual be complemented with more direct Change. Non-CO2 aviation emissions conditions and the Federal intervention including performance are also excluded from the targets Government adopts a target of standards for new aircraft. under the Kyoto Protocol. reducing emissions to 60 per cent The investment saved from restrictions To account for the impacts of non- below 2000 levels by the middle of on the expansion of the aviation CO2 emissions, ‘uplift factors’ are this century, aviation could account industry will need to be redirected into sometimes used. CO2 emissions from for between 32 and 51 per cent of the alternative modes of transport, aviation are multiplied by the relevant total greenhouse gas allowance by including high-speed rail, and uplift factor to provide an estimate of 2050. telecommunications infrastructure. total aviation emissions. Irrespective of which policy Greenhouse gas emissions under various scenarios in Mt instruments are implemented to curtail aviation emissions, 600 Australians cannot expect to fly more than they currently do today. 500 Unless there is a major technological breakthrough 400 presently not foreseeable, the amount of air travel will need 300 to be stabilised and ultimately reduced. 200 We recognise that these proposals are likely to elicit howls of protest from the 100 aviation industry, and dismissive comments from 0 government, but here as in 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Europe the facts point to one conclusion only - we must cut back on the amount of flying if we are to tackle climate 60% reduction target 80% reduction target NU1 US1 US2 change. n 2 THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE Universities and fossil fuel capture Is there a problem with the University of Queensland having the Xstrata Chair of Metallurgical Engineering or Curtin University having the Woodside Hydrocarbon Research Facility? These questions are explored in a new Institute discussion paper. Co-author Christian Downie explains. Over the last decade the fossil fuel and research at Australian industries have become steadily more universities. involved in Australian universities. For teaching the concern is that Fossil fuel industry associations and industry’s preference for flexible and fossil fuel companies have spent targeted degrees and courses will lead millions of dollars funding research to curriculums increasingly tailored to projects and sponsoring university the short-term needs of industry, chairs, academic posts and even which may narrow the education entire schools. received by students. Are Australian universities For example, the sponsorship of some In Western Australia, relationships captured? university chairs and academic posts between universities and the fossil has been used to oversee the But is this a problem? Are Australian fuel industries are dominated by oil development of degree structures and universities being ‘captured’? Are and gas companies. course content. fossil fuel companies gaining an The Chancellors of both the inappropriate level of influence over University of Western Australia and the teaching and research priorities Applied research in Curtin University are current directors of universities? Is academic freedom of major oil and gas companies, the private interest in jeopardy? Woodside and Coogee Resources. could crowd out basic The increasing close relationships research in the public In fact, Woodside is a major sponsor between Australian universities and interest. of the School of Oil and Gas the fossil fuel industries are evident Engineering at the University of from a few examples. Western Australia. Further, evidence from the University of Western Australia indicates that It established the School in 2000 with fossil fuel sponsors ‘approved the The concern is that a $1 million grant and it has provided rationale for restructure’ of the academics may almost $2 million to create two chairs. undergraduate program at the School Woodside personnel sit on the refrain from making of Oil and Gas Engineering. critical remarks about University advisory boards, the practices of committees and many have In 2005, the School estimated that companies. participated in the School’s teaching about 70 industry representatives had and research programs. been involved in the development,