THE GREAT 2008 CHINESE ICE STORM Its Socioeconomic–Ecological Impact and Sustainability Lessons Learned

Home , 2008 South China floods, Guiyang County, South Central China, Zixing

b y Be n z h i Zh o u , Li a n h o n g Gu, Yi h u i Di n g , La n Sh a o , Zh o n g m i n Wu, Xi a o s h e n g Ya n g , Ch a n g z h u Li, Zh e n g c a i Li, Xi a o m i n g Wa n g , Yo n g h u i Ca o , Bi n g s h a n Ze n g , Mu k u i Yu, Mi n g y u Wa n g , Sh e n g k u n Wa n g , Ho n g g a n g Su n , Ai g u o Du a n , Ya n f e i An, Xu Wa n g , a n d Weijian Ko n g

An unprecedented storm that inflicted direct economic losses exceeding U.S.$20 billion demonstrated that an extreme event lasting days can undo socioeconomic and ecological structures decades in the making.

xtreme weather and climate events shape the evolution of human and natural systems (Sarewitz and Pielke 2001). EThroughout history, their unexpected occurrence has repeatedly caught societies off guard and led to disasters and contributed to the downfall of prosperous dynasties and civiliza- tions (Diamond 2005; Yancheva et al. 2007). Although extreme events are an act of physical processes of the climate system, their impact is determined in the context of human and natural systems (Sarewitz and Pielke 2001; Diamond 2005). Economic structures, societal behaviors, critical technologies, and managed and unmanaged life support systems interact to either prevent or promote the transition of natural events into human disasters. Understanding this transition is essential for identifying and reducing the vulnerability of human systems to extreme events, and for bridging the gap between science and decision making. Sustainability science seeks to develop this knowledge, and meteorologists can and must play a critical role in this mission. Case studies of extreme weather and climate events are pivotal to understanding their societal impact in the context of sustainability science. To avoid being constrained by the idiosyncrasy of an individual event, a case study must 

Ice-coated forest with decapitated trees in southern China.

Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/28/21 04:03 PM UTC treme events have seldom been accomplished. Freezing rains, also known as ice storms, are common in East Asia (Ding et al. 2008) and North America (Changnon 2003; Irland 2000). They form when a warm, moist atmospheric layer overrides a shallow cold surface layer. In the United States, 87 catastrophic ice storms {defined as with proper- ty damage of more than $1 million [U.S. dollars (USD); all future references Fi g . 1. The encounter of continental polar (cP; blue arrows) with tropical to dollars are to USD]} oc- maritime (mT; red arrows) air masses to the east of Tibetan Plateau. The pink oval marks the ice storm region. The thicker arrows indicate the dominant curred from 1949 to 2000 directions in airmass movement. (Changnon 2003). The 1998 North American ice storm integrate across atmospheric sciences, the delivery of induced a total loss of $4.4 billion (Gyakum and weather information, sociology, economics, ecology, Roebber 2001). technologies, and the decision-making process to The 2008 Chinese ice storm (Stone 2008) struck look for common threads. Only through such inte- the most populated and economically developed gration can a comprehensive picture of the evolution region of China (the south-central region) and was from a natural phenomenon to a human disaster more damaging than the 1998 North American ice be generated and sustainability lessons of broad storm. Its individual episodes occurred for nearly implication be learned. However, comprehensive a month (10 January–6 February). According to assessments of the causes and consequences of ex- statistics released by the Ministry of Civil Affairs of China, the direct economic loss alone was more than $22.3 billion and indirect losses could be even greater AFFILIATIONS: Zh o u , Ya n g , Z. Li, X. Wa n g , Ca o , Yu, Su n , An, (Ministry of Civil Affairs 2008; Zhao et al. 2008; Peng a n d Ko n g —Research Institute of Subtropical Forestry, Chinese and Peng 2008). It is hard to imagine how such losses Academy of Forestry, Fuyang, China; Gu—Environmental Sci- could have been prevented, but the same storm would ences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, not have had the same impact 30 years ago. During Tennessee; Di n g —National Climate Center, China Meteoro- the past 30 years, far-reaching economic reforms in logical Administration, Beijing, China; Sh a o —China National Forestry Industry Association, Beijing, China; Wu, Ze n g , S. Wa n g , China have dramatically changed the structures of a n d Xu Wa n g —Research Institute of Tropical Forestry, Chinese socioeconomic and managed ecological systems in Academy of Forestry, Guangzhou, China; C. Li—Hunan Academy the affected region. Evaluating the contribution of of Forestry, Changsha, China; M. Wa n g —Institute of Forest socioeconomic policies and ecosystem management Ecology, Environment and Protection, Chinese Academy of practices to the observed impact of the ice storm can Forestry, Beijing, China; Du a n —Research Institute of Forestry, provide valuable lessons for planning for ways to Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, China alleviate the risk of future extreme events. CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Lianhong Gu, Senior Staff Scientist, Environmental Sciences Division, Building 1509, Oak Following the 2008 Chinese ice storm, a mul- Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831–6335 tidisciplinary research team with members from E-mail: [email protected] both inside and outside the storm region compre- hensively assessed the event’s cause and impact. The abstract for this article can be found in this issue, following the table of contents. First-hand experience of the storm coupled with DOI:10.1175/2010BAMS2857.1 documents from governmental agencies and disci- plinary reports from other scientists provided us an In final form 27 August 2010 ©2011 American Meteorological Society opportunity to develop a relatively complete picture of the evolution of this unprecedented event from a

48 | january 2011 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/28/21 04:03 PM UTC meteorological disturbance to a socioeconomic and Mountains region (~60°E; Fig. 1) split the westerlies ecological disaster. into northern and southern branches. The northern Our goal was to draw from the disaster lessons and branch attained Arctic properties from the frigid general principles of sustainable socioeconomic and Arctic surface and then swung back to the south and ecological development that would be useful in plan- eventually ended up in China. The southern branch ning for future extreme weather and climate events. circumvented the Pamir Mountains (~39°N, 72°E) We analyzed the atmospheric general circulation pat- and the Himalayas and traveled to the northern tern that spawned the ice storm, the impact on critical Indian Ocean. It picked up heat and moisture from infrastructures, the damage to forest and agricultural the Bay of Bengal and then turned northeastward ecosystems, the societal response to the disaster, and toward China. the postdisaster policy influence. We related the struc- Associated with the Ural blocking high was a long tural vulnerabilities of the socioeconomic and ecologi- pressure ridge stretching all the way to the Moroccan cal systems exposed by the event to past economic and coast through the western Mediterranean Sea. To ecosystem management policies and practices. the southeast of this ridge lay a trough extending from the Aral Sea (45°N, 60°E) through the eastern THE STORM. The 2008 ice storm was a conse- Mediterranean Sea to northern Africa. Both the quence of convergence of warm, moist mT and cold 500-hPa ridge and trough were shifted southeastward cP air masses (Fig. 1). Here we provide a general and were stronger than normal. Meanwhile, to the east description of key meteorological drivers; technical of the Eurasian continent, the East Asian (500 hPa) aspects are available in references cited. trough (L. Wang et al. 2009) extended from the Sea of Okhotsk through the Sea of Japan to the East China The convergence of two air masses. Around the start of Sea. Compared with its normal wintertime strength, 2008, a persistent summer-monsoon-like flow pattern the East Asian trough deepened in its northern half formed unseasonably in Southeast Asia. It drove mT air masses from the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea to southern and central China, increasing surface temperatures (Fig. 2) and providing the region with copious amounts of moisture (Fig. 10 in Shi et al. 2010). About 10 January 2008, cP air masses also streamed into the same region via central Asia and Mongolia, resulting in a sudden surface temperature drop (Fig. 2). The mT air overrode the cP air to develop an inverted, stable atmospheric boundary layer with a slanted stationary frontal surface that stretched across 20° of latitude [see Figs. 3 and 4 in Tao et al. (2008), 852–853], a favorable configuration for freezing rains over a large region (oval in Fig.1). The convergence of mT and cP air masses was caused by an unusual atmospheric general circulation pattern in the Northern Hemisphere (see Fig. 4 in Wen et al. 2009; Fig. 7 in Bao et al. 2010; Fig. 7 in Ding et al. 2008, p. 816; also see Shi et al. 2010; Ding et al. 2009; Gao et al. 2008; Tao et al. 2008; D. Wang et al. 2008; L. Wang et al. 2008; Y. Wang et al. 2008; Z. Wang et al. 2008; Yang et al. 2008). Over the Eurasian continent, the upper- tropospheric flow (200 hPa) was characterized by a southeastward-shifted, stronger-than-normal Middle East jet stream over northern Saudi Arabia Fi g . 2. Daily mean surface temperatures and pre- and by a northwestward-retracted but also stronger- cipitation accumulation at the weather station of (a) than-normal East Asian jet stream to the south of Changsha and (b) Guiyang. The large drop in the tem- Japan. In the middle troposphere (500 hPa), a strong peratures indicates that the advancing mT is abruptly blocking high over the meridionally oriented Ural displaced from the surface by the arriving cP.

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY january 2011 | 49 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/28/21 04:03 PM UTC But in its path lay the lofty Pamir Mountains, which split the flow and forced a branch of air to turn east into the Tarim basin (cen- tered at ~39°N, 83°E) in Xinjiang, China, from the direction of Lake Balkhash (~46°N, 75°E; Kazakhstan) to Lake Issyk-Kul (~42°N, 77°E; Kyrgyzstan). Once the cold air mass reached the Tarim basin, there were no geographical bar- riers to stop its advance into eastern China. The cold front swept across the Tarim basin, dumping a large amount of snow in the Taklimakan Desert

Fi g . 3. Satellite image showing snow in Taklimakan Desert, a consequence (Fig. 3). Flowing down the of cold airmass invasion from central Asia. This cold air mass is to meet ancient Silk Road along the with warm, moist air mass from the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea generally flat, sloping land, to produce freezing rains in southern and central China (see Fig. 1). The the cold air mass rushed image was acquired on 19 Feb 2008, with the Moderate Resolution Imaging through the Hexi Corridor, Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the National Aeronautics and Space merged with the weaker Administration (NASA)’s Terra satellite. but cold northerly surface flow from Mongolia, and but weakened in its southern half. Farther to the east fanned out east of the Tibetan Plateau into central of the trough, but still in the northwestern Pacific, was and southern China (Fig. 1). an anomalous 500-hPa high. To the south of the East Once the cP air mass entered central and southern Asian trough, the subtropical western Pacific high China, its continuous advance was constrained in the (500 hPa) was unusually strong, with its ridge shifted east by the East China Mountains along the coast, northwestward toward the Chinese coast (Fig. 9 in Shi in the south by the Nanling/Wumeng Mountains et al. 2010). The weakened southern half of the East (~25°N), and in the west by the Hengduan Mountains Asian trough, the anomalous northwestern Pacific (~100°E) (Fig. 1). Unable to climb over these mountain high, and the northwestward-shifted, stronger-than- ranges, the cP air was trapped (cold air damming), normal subtropical western Pacific high worked to- and a relatively shallow freezing layer formed at the gether to slow down the eastward and southeastward surface [see Fig. 7 in Shi et al. (2010) and Figs. 3 and movement of weather systems out of China. 4 in Tao et al. (2008), 852–853]. At the surface and to the east of the Ural upper- While the cP air was dammed at the surface, mT level blocking high, the Asian continental high air masses were still actively moving into the same (also known as Siberian high) was stronger than region from the south as a result of abnormal atmo- normal and shifted westward from its average cen- spheric circulation over the northern Indian Ocean ter near 55°N, 100°E, just northwest of Lake Baikal and the western equatorial Pacific. In January and (Panagiotopoulos et al. 2005), to near 55°N, 70°E in early February of 2008, the southern branch of the northern Kazakhstan (Wen et al. 2009). The westward westerlies, split by the Ural blocking high, continu- shift of the anticyclone allowed cold surface air to ally transported shortwave disturbances to the Bay stream into China, mainly from the west rather than of Bengal. Meanwhile, anomalous warming took via the more common northerly route. On the east place over the Tibetan Plateau (Bao et al. 2010). These flank of the surface anticyclone, the air, which had processes caused the development and deepening of gained its Arctic properties during its journey in the the Bangladesh southern branch trough. The strength polar region, moved southward and southeastward. of this southern branch trough may also have been

50 | january 2011 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/28/21 04:03 PM UTC increased via lee cyclogenesis, resulting from cold air inces of Hunan, Guizhou, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Hubei, pouring down the southern slope of the Himalayas. Anhui, Yunnan, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Henan This air had its origin in the anticyclonic flow around that record-breaking freezing rains occurred (these the east side of the Asian continental high, which was provinces are located roughly within the pink oval in split by the Pamir Mountains. As a result of the forma- Fig. 1). Ice accumulation averaging more than 50 mm tion of an active Bangladesh southern branch trough in radial ice thickness (RIT) was observed across and the stronger-than-normal northwestward-shifted the region (Table 1). On surfaces of roads in Hunan subtropical western Pacific high, the wind flow pat- Province, ice thickness of more than 100 mm was tern in Southeast Asia showed striking similarities to observed. The number of ice days varied across the that of the Asian summer monsoon. affected region, but it was typically between 10 and As the mT air overrode the cP air, freezing rains 20 days. In parts of Hunan and Guizhou, ice lasted fell [Fig. 2; see also Figs. 1 and 2 in Shi et al. (2010)]. up to 27 days. For comparison, the great 1998 North The warm layer melted snowflakes and ice particles American ice storm lasted for 5 days with a 45-mm falling from aloft. The cold layer at the bottom was ice load recorded in the storm’s center (Gyakum and too shallow to freeze raindrops before they hit the Roebber 2001). ground. Upon striking the ground, supercooled The longevity of the 2008 ice storm was a conse- raindrops spread out and froze, coating the surface quence of a stable atmospheric general circulation with thick glistening ice. Although heavy snow and pattern in the Northern Hemisphere. During the sleet also fell during the event, it was the ice that did period of the ice storm, the Ural blocking high was the most damage (Ding et al. 2008). unusually strong and persistent. As soon as the Ural blocking high dissipated, the ice storm ended (Ding The unprecedented ice extent and accumulation. Ice et al. 2008). A strong and persistent Ural blocking storms are not uncommon in South-central China high coupled with an abnormal development of because the region’s topography is conducive to cold pressure systems to the east of China, including the air damming (Fig. 1). Indeed, observations indicated East Asian trough, the northwestern Pacific high, cold air damming during individual episodes of the and the subtropical western Pacific high, led to the 2008 ice storm [see Fig. 7 in Shi et al. (2010); Figs. 3 longevity of the storm within China. As pointed out and 4 in Tao et al. (2008), 852–853]. However, the 2008 event was unprecedented in duration, spatial extent, and ice load. Starting on 10 January, four separate waves of freezing rain (10–16 January, 18–22 January, 25– 29 January, and 31 January–6 Febru- ary) struck the same region [Fig. 2, also see Fig. 2a for regional average in Shi et al. (2010)]. The intervals between successive waves were too short for the ice to melt or be broken and cleared with shovels or even military personnel carriers before the next waves started (Fig. 4). Thus, as waves of freezing rain came, ice kept accumulating on the surfaces of trees, crops, power lines, roofs, highways, train tracks, and bridges. By the time the last wave Fi g . 4. (a) Ice-coated road (2 Feb 2008 in northern Guangdong Province), ended, 20 provinces and autono- (b) fallen electrical lines (3 Feb 2008, southern Hunan Province), and (c),(d) ice-stranded travelers in Guangzhou Railway Station in the mous regions had been severely af- southern coastal city of Guangzhou (31 Jan 2008). These pictures were fected. Based on weather station data taken during the fourth (last) wave of freezing rain. Photos courtesy compiled by China Meteorological of (a) Xinhua News Agency, (b) Hunan Forestry Administration, and Administration (Z. Wang et al. 2008; (c),(d) Nanfang Metropolitan Daily (the photographer for photos (c) Yang et al. 2008), it was in the prov- and (d) are Yiqi Chen and Qianhua Fang, respectively).

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY january 2011 | 51 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/28/21 04:03 PM UTC earlier, the unseasonable development and deepening event evolved. We only used data from the last report of the Bangladesh southern branch trough was also or last news release from an agency. We conducted an important factor, as it worked in conjunction with our own site surveys in 2008 and 2009 in the long-term the subtropical western Pacific high to drive mT air ecological research stations at the Nanling Natural masses northward to meet with the cP air masses. Reserve (Guangdong Province) and the Dagangshan It is currently not clear whether the apparently Mountains (Jiangxi Province). These surveys used synchronized abnormal activities in the high and randomly selected plots to determine the percentage low latitudes and the anomalous warming over the and types of tree damage in different forest stands. Tibetan Plateau were related. Also not clear is why We also visited villages and forest plantations in the these abnormal activities were so stable for so long. counties of Yongxing, Zixing, and Guiyang of Hunan Suggestions as to the roles of La Niña, the north polar Province, in the county of Taihe (the Qianyanzhou vortex, and intraseasonal oscillation have been made Ecological Research Station) of Jiangxi Province, but definitive answers have not been found (Hong and and in the county of Jiangshan of Zhejiang Province. Li 2009; Gao 2009). These visits collected information on how the level of It is worth noting that the same abnormal atmo- damage was related to the use of tree species in planta- spheric general circulation pattern spawned a chain tions and to past forest management practices and on of extreme events from western to eastern Asia (Ding how the destruction of forest plantations might affect et al. 2008). For the first time in 100 years, snow fell the livelihood of villagers in the future. in Baghdad, Iraq. Heavy snow also fell in Tehran, Iran. In Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, low temperature Human impacts. The 2008 ice storm affected an ac- records were broken. In Afghanistan, continual heavy cumulated 100 million people for days to weeks to snow caused avalanches. But it was in central and nearly a month, depending on locations (Zhao et al. southern China where the extremity of the weather 2008; Peng and Peng 2008; Ma 2009). The first criti- reached a new level and took the more damaging form cal infrastructure to fail across the affected region of an ice storm owing to the convergence of cP and was the electrical grid (Fig. 4). In the province of mT air masses and the copious amounts of moisture Guizhou, about 80% of the power supply facilities in the mT air masses. were damaged. In the province of Hunan, the power grid in and around the city of Chenzhou (25°46ʹN, THE IMPACT. The Chinese government uses a 113°01ʹE) was almost completely destroyed and had comprehensive, hierarchical approach to collecting to be rebuilt, leaving the city’s population of more data related to disasters. Data are first collected at than four million in the dark for several weeks. the lowest administrative unit (i.e. township/village) Table 2 summarizes the national statistics of power and reported to the next level of administration (i.e., grid damage. county). The provincial and/or directly controlled The power grid failure triggered a cascade of municipal government then compiles the data and breakdowns of other lifeline systems. Tap water reports to the central government. Governmental stopped flowing. Cooking and heating became agencies reported impact statistics both during and impossible for millions of families. Hospitals and after the storm and thus the data changed as the factories closed. Mines were submerged because of

Ta b l e 1. Examples of observed ice thickness during the 2008 Chinese ice storm (10 Jan–6 Feb 2008). Location Radial ice thickness (mm) Date observed Mount Jigongshan, Henan Province 160 12 Jan 2008 (31°50Ń, 114°05É) Mount Huangshan, Anhui Province 61 27 Jan 2008 (32°42Ń, 114°03É) Mount Lushan, Jiangxi Province 84 27 Jan 2008 (29°34Ń, 115°58É) Tongren, Guizhou Province 83 29 Jan 2008 (27°44Ń, 109°11É) Most parts of Hunan Province >70 mm Throughout the storm period

52 | january 2011 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/28/21 04:03 PM UTC Ta b l e 2. Major direct impacts of the 2008 Chinese ice storm. Description Categories (destroyed or otherwise stated) Source Human life 129 dead, 1.7 million displaced Zhao et al. (2008) 36,740 high-voltage transmission lines; 8,381 China Electricity Council Infrastructure Power grids towers; 2,018 transformer stations (2008) Communication 35,000 telephone poles; 20,000 mobile phone News Office of the State systems base stations Council (2008) 40% of the winter crops in China, 75 million Food production Agriculture Ministry of Agriculture (2008) livestock (mostly poultry) Jin et al. (2008); Li and Wang Apiculture 30% of bee colonies in Zhejiang Province (2008) 3.4 million pairs of broodstock, 0.42 million Aquaculture Ministry of Agriculture (2008) tons of fingerlings, 0.45 million tons of adult fish 20 million hectares with >10% standing volume Forest Resources Management Forests loss, 10% of national forest cover, 3% of Department (2008) national forest standing volume No systematic survey but dead wild animals Song (2008); Wildlife widely seen in natural reserves S. Wang et al. (2008) Buildings 0.5 million collapsed, 1.7 million partial damage Zhao et al. (2008)

inoperable pumps. The railway system, the principal price of a pack of instant noodles rose from less than a mode of passenger movement in China, was disrupted dollar to nearly 10 dollars. In locations such as railway not by the ice cover on tracks per se but by powerless stations and inside train carriages, no food could be electric trains. Meanwhile, highways were blocked by bought. Because the storm struck the transportation ice, and airports were closed because of treacherous hubs of China, the entire country was affected. The runways and atmospheric conditions. consumer price index nationwide increased by 34% The simultaneous failure of all three transport from December of 2007 to February of 2008 (National modes could not have come at a worse time. It oc- Bureau of Statistics 2008a,b). curred right before the Chinese New Year, the most Communication systems were also knocked out important holiday for family reunions. Even with collectively (Table 2). Communication system failure good weather, travel during this time of year in China may be a factor in the initial sluggish governmental re- is hectic and demands optimum operation of all sponse, leading to ineffective traffic controls on high- transportation systems. Transportation disruption ways and crowd management in railway stations. quickly turned into logistical nightmare for the entire The storm claimed 129 lives (Zhao et al. 2008). The country. A large number of people were stranded in number of casualties was relatively small when exam- railway stations, airports, and highways. An estimate ined in the context of 1.5 million people displaced, of 5.8 million travelers were stuck in railway stations half a million buildings collapsed, and other massive alone (News Office of the State Council 2008). At physical damages (Table 2). The fact that the disaster one time, the front square of the Guangzhou Railway occurred just days before the most cherished fam- Station was jam-packed with 800,000 people (Fig. 4). ily reunion holiday may have stimulated among the In one highway section in Hunan, more than 20,000 Chinese people a sense of kinship and thus encour- vehicles with more than 60,000 passengers were im- aged them to work together to overcome the crisis mobilized by ice and snow in every direction. (Xin 2008; Fig. 4). More important to the limited loss With all transportation systems frozen, supply of human life was the fact that ambient temperatures chains of energy, food, and other vital goods were were ironically not particularly low for that time of broken. Coal reserves reached emergency levels. year. In the affected region, winter temperatures Power plants had to be shut down. Food shortages below –5°C are common. The coldest winter (1954/55) occurred in a region that has plenty under normal of the recent history had minimum temperatures of conditions. In some cities, food prices soared by –18° to –21°C in the Huai River basin, –10° to –15°C 1,000%. For example, in the city of Chenzhou, the in the Yangtze River basin, and –5° to –8°C in south

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY january 2011 | 53 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/28/21 04:03 PM UTC species previously known in the reserve could not be found any more (S. Wang et al. 2008). The damage to the country’s bur- geoning forests was of particular con- cern because of the scale and potential long-term consequences (Table 2). Central and southern China has been undergoing intensive reforestation since the 1980s. With plenty of rain and relatively fertile soils, forest plantation productivity in this region was among the highest in China. At the time of the storm, these plantations were mostly at young to middle ages and thus in their most produc- tive stages of stand development. Unfortunately, the storm destroyed Fi g . 5. Forest stands damaged by the ice storm. (a) Eucalyptus 30 years of hard work to reforest the spp plantation in Huangmian Forest Center, Guangxi Zhuang region. Ice accumulation on trees led Autonomous Region, 30 Jan 2008. (b) Slash pine (Pinus elliottii Engelm.) plantation in Ji’an, Jiangxi, 13 Mar 2008. (c) Moso bamboo to widespread crown decapitation, (Phyllostachys heterocycla var. pubescens) plantation in Dagangshan, stem breakage, branch snapping, Jiangxi, 25 Apr 2008. (d) Ice-covered trees in Tianjingshan Forest bending, and uprooting (Fig. 5). Center, Guangdong, 3 Feb 2008. Courtesy of (a) Yunfeng Chen and Single-species plantations suf- (b) Huagui Peng. fered the most severe damage (crown decapitation and stem breakage). China. In contrast, minimum temperatures in the Plantations of pines (e.g. Pinus massoniana Lambert) same region were mostly above –5°C during the 2008 that had been excessively tapped for oleoresins, and ice storm (Ding et al. 2009), and in the hardest-hit exotic tree species suffered whole-stand destruction in region mean daily temperatures fluctuated around much of the region. Oleoresin tapping through bark 0°C (Fig. 2a). Fortunately, the relatively warm condi- chipping, which was common in the region, created a tions during the 2008 ice storm may have spared the weak spot on the stem. In the oleoresin-tapping pine lives of many displaced people. plantations we surveyed, nearly all stem breakages occurred at the tapping spot. Plantations of exotic Impacts on managed and natural ecosystems. The ice species, such as Pinus elliottii Engelm and Pinus taeda load proved to be too much for crops, domestic and L. (both native to the southeastern United States) and wild animals, and trees. Agriculture, apiculture, Eucalyptus spp. (native to Australia), were very popu- aquaculture, and forestry all suffered heavy losses lar in the region because of their fast growth. These (Table 2). The loss of wildlife in the region’s more species had no resistance to ice accumulation. Even than 800 natural reserves has not been systemati- in places where they survived physical destruction, cally surveyed but scattered reports depicted a grim physiological damage (e.g. cambium browning) was picture. In the Mangshan Natural Reserve (24°58ʹN, observed during our field investigation. 112°49ʹE) located in the province of Hunan, starva- The damage to forests led to secondary hazards. tion and freezing killed about 200 large protected Soil erosion and landslides increased. The sudden in- wild animals, including monkeys and sambars, and crease in wounded trees resulted in insect infestation 10,000 birds, including yellow-bellied tragopans, and tree disease, and the large accumulation of dead silver pheasants, tits, and bamboo partridges (Song litter on forest floors provided fuel for fires (Fig. 6). 2008). The number of migratory birds overwintering Forest fires increased substantially in subsequent in Lake Poyang (29°10ʹN, 116°13ʹE) in the province months. In the province of Hunan, for example, the of Jiangxi was 20% below normal. In the Nanling number of forest fires in March 2008 was 11 times National Natural Reserve (24°55ʹN, 113°01ʹE) in the higher than the March average of the previous 10 province of Guangdong, the population density of years, and the burned area was 5 times higher than butterflies decreased by 90%, and 60% of all butterfly the average (M. Wang et al. 2008).

54 | january 2011 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/28/21 04:03 PM UTC With such severe large-scale damage, forests in national economic policy rethinking and redirection. central and southern China will likely act as carbon There is no indication this has happened. sources for years to come. Before the storm, forests The policy influence of these two events likely in this region accounted for 65% of the total ter- differed for multiple reasons. Public opinion blamed restrial carbon sink of the country and much of this deforestation in the upper reaches of the Yangtze sink was due to plantations (Piao et al. 2009). Given River for the 1998 flood, whereas the 2008 ice storm the overwhelming importance of this region in the was believed to be an act of nature; although, in both overall Chinese terrestrial carbon sink, it is doubtful cases a combination of natural forces and human that the Chinese ecosystems will continue to serve factors was responsible for the losses. The Chinese as a net carbon sink for the country until the forests meteorological community has made great progress in this region are reestablished. Further research on in improving forecast accuracy, but only recently has this issue is needed. attention been paid to meeting users’ evolving needs The sudden loss of forest plantations created un- for extreme weather forecasts. The public understood certainties for the livelihood of tens of thousands of floods relatively well but had poor knowledge about households who depended on the plantations for cash. ice storms and their potential impacts. Finally, the These families drew their incomes from both timber 2008 ice storm was closely followed by distracting and nontimber products (e.g., oleoresin tapping). social and natural incidents. In March, ethnic un- Because most plantations were destroyed all together, rest and deadly riots erupted in the Tibet Autono- these families will have to look for new sources of mous Region. In May, the great Sichuan earthquake income for decades to come even if they can manage occurred. In August, the extravagant 2008 Summer to replant the plantations now. Olympics took place. By the time the flame of the Olympic torch was extinguished, a rare confluence POSTDISASTER POLICY INFLUENCE: THE of sorrow and ecstasy had erased any trace of re- IMPORTANCE OF CIRCUMSTANCES. A membrance of that ice storm from the minds of most weather disaster can benefit long-term societal devel- people. Now with fresh memory gone, the window of opment if the society is willing to grab the “window of opportunity for change offered by this disaster is in opportunity for change” immediately after the event danger of being lost. to deal with the vulnerabilities exposed (Sarewitz and Pielke 2001; Birkmann et al. 2010). However, SUSTAINABILITY LESSONS. The 2008 ice whether the society can materialize the benefit may storm disaster and the societal response revealed have nothing to do with the disaster itself. A com- several lessons of broad implication. Without con- parison of the policy influence of the 2008 ice storm with that of the 1998 Yangtze River flood (Zong and Chen 2000) reveals this point. The two events were similar in their severity and direct economic loss: both were 100-yr extreme events with a direct loss of more than $20 billion. The indirect loss of the 2008 ice storm was likely higher because it destroyed large areas of forests. But in terms of policy influence, the two events could not differ more. The 1998 flood shocked the Chinese government into developing and implementing a comprehensive national forest policy (Zhang et al. 2000; Liu and Diamond 2005; Liu et al. 2008). That policy, which is still in effect today, has transformed China into a country with the highest growth rate of forest cover in the world (FAO 2009). In contrast, only a few technical adjustments to in- Fi g . 6. Secondary hazards after ice storm damage. frastructure have been made after the 2008 ice storm; (left) A burned Masson pine (Pinus massoniana L.) stand that had been damaged earlier by the ice storm in for example, the standards of ice loading capacities of Guiyang County, Hunan Province; 28 Apr 2008. (right) the electrical power grids have been increased and the A diseased Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata L.) in transportation sector has been ordered to improve its an ice-damaged plantation in Qianyanzhou Ecological disaster preparedness. While these adjustments are Research Station, Jiangxi Province; 23 Apr 2008. necessary, the 2008 disaster calls for much broader (Photos by Lianhong Gu.)

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY january 2011 | 55 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/28/21 04:03 PM UTC tingency plans, advanced technologies under normal and to initiate the right response, the decision maker weather and climate conditions can create worse must be able to develop an accurate mental image of problems during extreme events. China has been these complicated interrelations of failures and ripple modernizing its railway systems with high-speed effects within a limited period of time and under electric trains; by 2008, all trains had become elec- stress. This is too much to expect, even for a compe- trically operated, and no diesel locomotives or even tent and experienced decision maker who is given an their drivers could be found in central and southern absolutely accurate weather forecast and who under- China. Unfortunately, when the storm hit, the first stands the forecast and its implication. The competent critical infrastructure to fail was the electric power decision maker might not be able to make the right grids, making the advanced electric trains useless. decision even after the extreme event has commenced With no hope to restore the power grids soon, the because the communication system is often among authorities scrambled to find diesel engines and driv- the first to fail, and the decision maker could not get ers from technological backwaters (remote parts) of real-time assessment of the ground truth. China and dispatch them to technologically advanced Therefore, and unfortunately, accurate weather but storm-fragile central and southern China. Weeks forecasts (good science) and competent decision mak- passed before they finally arrived to the paralyzed ers are not a guarantee of successful disaster plans region, and by that time railway stations throughout or responses. An integrated extreme weather impact the region were already in chaos (Fig. 4). Thus, new forecast system is needed to bridge the gap between technologies for critical infrastructures, particularly science and decision making (Morss et al. 2008). The those dependent on integrated energy supplies, should system should generate a range of plausible future be evaluated under both normal and extreme weather conditions with the uncertainty of each condition and climate conditions. Contingency plans need to clearly quantified; predict corresponding social, eco- be developed based on a complete understanding nomical, and ecological vulnerabilities; provide pos- of their efficiency, safety margins, and potential sible impact scenarios; and suggest logical responses vulnerabilities. and decision options for policy makers, business The weakest link in weather disaster response lies sectors, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and between science and decision making. Governments other users to consider. The multiple functions must of the world, regardless of their political systems, are be performed seamlessly and the forecast products often accused of incompetency in their responses to must be understandable and actionable to laypersons. great weather disasters. The Chinese government did Toward this goal, a transition from a forecast-only not escape this fate in its dealing with the 2008 ice practice to a user-central operation by the meteoro- storm; its efforts in managing mass movement and logical community is needed. Methods for building disaster relief were criticized in particular. The per- such a system represent a crucial research need for ceived ineffective governmental responses were not sustainability science and a challenge for disaster due to inadequate science (inaccurate weather fore- management (Morss et al. 2005). cast). Although the prediction of the coming of four waves of freezing rain was beyond the capability of Biodiversity is a form of long-term insurance of sustain- current numerical weather forecast models (because able forestry against extreme events. In central and the overall duration exceeded their upper limit of southern China, plantations are dominated by just a reliable lead time), Chinese meteorologists were able few tree species, mainly the native species Pinus mas- to forecast each wave fairly accurately (Ding et al. soniana Lambert, Cunninghamia lanceolata Lambert 2008). Thus, on first thought, the criticism lashed (Hooker), Phyllostachys heterocycla var. pubescens, out against the Chinese government seems to have and the exotic species Pinus elliottii, Pinus taeda, some basis. However, such hindsight criticism is not and Eucalyptus spp. All these species were selected constructive because it ignores a deeper reason for for fast growth under normal weather and climate response failures. conditions. Unfortunately, these species, particularly The magnitude of an unprecedented extreme event the introduced ones, were not good at surviving ice such as the 2008 ice storm can be so large and the se- storms (Fig. 5). verity and scope of its impact can be so complex that Species susceptibility to ice storms is affected by it is impossible to foresee immediately what needs to crown forms, branching patterns, physical properties be done. Multiple interrelated critical infrastructures of wood, and tree physiology. Different species can often fail in sequence, creating ripple effects across have drastically different responses to similar ice every corner of the society. To make the right decision accumulation (Bragg et al. 2003). China has some of

56 | january 2011 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/28/21 04:03 PM UTC the greatest tree species diversity in the world, and extreme events. The Chinese economy is regionally central and southern China is the main biodiversity imbalanced. Large cities and coastal areas dominate hot spot (Liu et al. 2003). The region has plenty of over countryside and inland regions. The regional candidate species for plantations with a high degree economic imbalance has created an extraordinary of resistance to ice storms (Fig. 5, panel d). Hindsight number of migratory workers. In 2005 alone, an es- suggests that past reforestation efforts have not made timated 126 million people left their homeland and use of this advantage. Instead, too much emphasis has looked for jobs somewhere else (Gong et al. 2008). been placed on short-term growth; the long-term risk Consequently, tidal waves of human transportation of extreme events has been ignored. Past management occur within about 15 days around the annual fam- decisions allowed a single extreme event with a dura- ily reunion time: Chinese New Year. On an average tion of days to destroy the results of decades of invest- day during this period, 5 million passengers travel by ment. Sustainable forestry requires balancing fast train alone. All transport systems attempt to operate growth under normal conditions with survivability near-full capacities or breaking points to bring travel- under extreme conditions, which can be obtained by ers home on time. As a result, China is exceptionally diversifying tree species in plantations at local and vulnerable to winter storms during this heavy travel regional scales. period. Sustainable extraction of nontimber goods is es- The regional economic imbalance also means that sential to planning for the risk of extreme events in critical infrastructures are highly concentrated. The forest resources use. In China and other developing majority of strategic highways, railways, and electric countries, nontimber products from forests provide grids are located in a long, narrow, north–south band continuous sources of income for villagers and between Beijing and Guangzhou. Any disruption are essential for combating deforestation and for at one point of this long band influences the entire promoting reforestation (FAO 2009). However, the country. Additionally, the imbalance increases the 2008 ice storm demonstrated that excessive extraction distance between the production and consumption of nontimber products jeopardizes tree survivability sites of life-supporting materials. As the population during extreme events. In our survey of pine planta- of China’s cities grows, food and energy must be tions in central and southern China, we found wide- brought in from places increasingly far away, creating spread use of excessive bark cuts for oleoresin tapping, more opportunities for extreme events to block the often with more than half of the stem circumference distribution channels and decouple consumption removed. These excessive cuts may not lead to tree from production. death under normal conditions but exacerbate the Formalized institutional mechanisms are needed to destruction of pine plantations by the storm. Planning ensure that unexpected opportunities to learn lessons for sustainable extraction of nontimber products from weather disasters are not lost in distracting should be an integral part of the governing strategy circumstances. Our analysis of postdisaster policy for the long-term use of forest resources to accom- responses indicates that governments and citizens modate the risk of extreme events. may react to weather and climate disasters of similar Extreme events can cause food shortages directly magnitude in starkly contrasting ways, and whether by destroying crops and indirectly by disrupting food valuable lessons can be learned and implemented distribution channels. In modern societies, sites of depends on circumstances. This is unfortunate since food production and consumption are separated. nature does not give humans many opportunities Abundance of food at the production site cannot to learn from deadly weather disasters (Dale et al. guarantee food security at the consumption site 1998). Formalized institutional mechanisms are unless channels between the two are kept open. The needed to prevent distractions and to ensure that 2008 ice storm showed that there are both direct when a weather disaster occurs, nations may learn and indirect paths for extreme events to cause food from it thoroughly. Development of such mechanisms shortage. At least during and immediately after an requires concerted efforts of natural and social scien- extreme event, the indirect path (disrupting food dis- tists, NGOs, and governmental agencies. tribution channels) can be more important than the direct path (destroying crops or reducing crop yields). CONCLUDING REMARKS. The 2008 Chinese Attention to both paths is needed to fully prepare for ice storm demonstrated that an extreme event of days the impact of extreme events on food security. in duration can undo socioeconomic and ecological Concentrated economic development and re- structures decades in the making. Sustainable national gional imbalance increases societal vulnerability to development requires balancing economic growth

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