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Enhancing Security Through a Cooperative Border Monitoring Experiment: a Proposal for India and Pakistan

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Enhancing Security Through a Cooperative Border Monitoring Experiment: a Proposal for India and Pakistan SAND 98-0505/21 Unlimited Release July 2001 Enhancing Security Through a Cooperative Border Monitoring Experiment: A Proposal for India and Pakistan Major General Mahmud Ali Durrani (Retd) Rawalpindi, Pakistan Cooperative Monitoring Center Occasional Paper/21 Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000. Enhancing Security Through a Cooperative Border Monitoring Experiment: A Proposal for India and Pakistan The Cooperative Monitoring Center (CMC) at Sandia National Laboratories assists political and technical experts from around the world to acquire the technology-based tools they need to assess, design, analyze, and implement nonproliferation, arms control, and other cooperative security measures. As part of its mission, the CMC sponsors research on cooperative security and the role of technology. Reports of that work are provided through the Occasional Papers series. Research is conducted by Sandia staff, international technical experts, and visiting scholars. (The CMC’s Visiting Scholars Program is administered by the Institute for Public Policy at the University of New Mexico.) For additional information on the CMC’s programs, visit the CMC home page on the World Wide Web at <http://www.cmc.sandia.gov> or write to: Cooperative Monitoring Center Sandia National Laboratories Mail Stop 1371 Albuquerque, NM 87185-1371 For specific information on this report contact: Kent Biringer at the above address. This report was prepared by Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM 87185 and Livermore, CA 94550 4 Enhancing Security Through a Cooperative Border Monitoring Experiment: A Proposal for India and Pakistan Enhancing Security through a Cooperative Border Monitoring Experiment: A Proposal for India and Pakistan Abstract South Asia is a recognized nuclear flash point, where India and Pakistan have a history of antagonism and habitual mistrust. For understandable reasons, the mistrust is the deepest amongst the armed forces of the two neighbors. This paper proposes a detailed cooperative border monitoring experiment, the implementation of which could help to reduce the high level of mistrust between the armed forces of India and Pakistan. If implemented, the proposal could also demonstrate systems and procedures to defuse border tensions and contain minor incidents on the border, which in the past have spun out of control. The essence of the proposal is a cooperative border monitoring experiment at three pre- selected sites. Two sites are on the Indo-Pak international border, requiring cooperative monitoring by the border security forces of both countries, while the third site is on the Line of Control (LOC) in Kashmir, requiring cooperative monitoring between the Indian and Pakistani armies. The proposed cooperative border monitoring experiment uses appropriate technologies and global experience, with the ultimate goal of moving from a relationship of confrontation to a relationship of cooperation. The proposal draws strength from successful contemporary models of cooperative monitoring around the world but has been tailored to the existing environment along the Indo-Pak border and the LOC through detailed discussions with the stakeholders in India and Pakistan. 5 Enhancing Security Through a Cooperative Border Monitoring Experiment: A Proposal for India and Pakistan Acknowledgements The idea for this study developed during my visit to Albuquerque, New Mexico, to participate in a Balusa Group Meeting sponsored by the Cooperative Monitoring Center (CMC), in March 1999, at the heels of the signing of the Lahore Declaration by the Indian Prime Minister and the then-Pakistani Prime Minister. Much has happened in South Asia since then: the Kargil conflict, the burial of the spirit of Lahore, the military takeover in Pakistan,and heightened tensions in Kashmir. As this study is on the verge of publication, events have taken a full turn; there is again a ray of hope on the horizon, with the forthcoming talks between the Indian Prime Minister and the Pakistani Chief Executive. My first acknowledgement is to the Cooperative Monitoring Center, which, as an institution, encouraged and supported me while giving me total flexibility in the design and conduct of the experiment. My special thanks go to Mr. Kent Biringer, who was the manifestation of the CMC support; his guidance and enthusiastic help were pivotal for moving the study on a fast track. Without the support of Tom Budge at the University of New Mexico, I could not have obtained all the maps that I needed. Steve Garcia helped me remake the maps to fit the design of the study. I thank Tim Crawford and Alan Runyan-Beebe at the CMC for their support in trying to educate me on the various technologies. I also thank Sally Laundre-Woerner for her help with the diagrams and slides. Mike Vannoni deserves special thanks for the very intense review and polishing of my draft in its final stages. Diane Ross also needs thanks for proofreading my draft and Americanizing the language. Logistically I would have been in the wilderness of New Mexico without the valuable support of Patricia Dickens, Nora Tankersley, and Stephanie Sustaita. I also thank those at CMC who have not been mentioned but helped me in many ways. Moving home, my gratitude goes to the Pakistan Army for its support and confidence in what I do to improve the Indo-Pak relationship. My special thanks go to General Ehsan-ul-Haq and his staff at General Headquarters (GHQ.) Ehsan has now left for happier hunting grounds. My gratitude also extends to the local commanders at the sites I visited. Without the support of GHQ I could not have done justice to this study. Moving across the border, I would like to thank Salman Haidar for his support in making it possible for me to meet with a variety of serving and retired officials in India. I thank the numerous officials and retired people I met with and discussed the project with in India. Last, but not least, I would like to thank Ambassador Shirin Tahir-Kheli at Johns Hopkins University for her encouragement, guidance, and support. 6 Enhancing Security Through a Cooperative Border Monitoring Experiment: A Proposal for India and Pakistan Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................................................... 11 1. BACKGROUND ...........................................................................................................................................13 2. CONTEMPORARY MODELS OF COOPERATIVE MONITORING ..................................................16 2.1. INTERMEDIATE-RANGE NUCLEAR FORCES (INF) TREATY....................................................................16 2.2. HUNGARY-ROMANIA “OPEN SKIES” REGIME (1991) ............................................................................17 2.3. U.S.-MEXICO BORDER MONITORING SYSTEM ......................................................................................18 2.4. THE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY AND ISRAEL—AN ENVIRONMENTAL COOPERATIVE MONITORING PROJECT................................................................................................................................................19 2.5. COOPERATIVE MONITORING IN THE SINAI: ISRAEL AND EGYPT............................................................20 2.5.1. Context.....................................................................................................................................20 2.5.2. Agreement to be Monitored .....................................................................................................20 2.5.3. Role of Monitoring in the Agreement.......................................................................................20 2.5.4. Conclusion ...............................................................................................................................23 3. CONCEPT AND OBJECTIVES OF THE INDIA-PAKISTAN COOPERATIVE MONITORING INITIATIVE..................................................................................................................................................23 3.1. CONCEPT...............................................................................................................................................23 3.2. PROPOSED PROJECT OBJECTIVES ..........................................................................................................24 3.3. CRITERIA FOR THE SELECTION FOR BORDER MONITORING EXPERIMENT SITES.....................................24 4. INDIA-PAKISTAN BORDER TERRAIN EVALUATION AND SITE SELECTION...........................26 4.1. CATEGORIES OF BORDER ......................................................................................................................26 4.2. GEOGRAPHIC CLASSIFICATION OF THE BORDER ....................................................................................26 4.3. SITES SELECTED FOR BORDER MONITORING EXPERIMENT ...................................................................29 4.4. VISIT TO EXPERIMENT SITES AND INTERVIEWS .....................................................................................34 4.5. MANAGEMENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER..................................................................................35 4.6. MANAGEMENT OF THE LOC..................................................................................................................39 4.7. MANAGEMENT
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