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Construction CONSTRUCTION All eyes on Penang undersea tunnel project 9 September 2013 OVERWEIGHT Mak Hoy Ken (Maintained) [email protected] +603 2036 2294 Rationale for report : Sector update Investment Highlights • Project set to take off this year. The Edge Malaysia’s cover story featured an article on Penang’s upcoming undersea tunnel project. The Pakatan Rakyat government in Penang had issued a letter-of-intent (LoI) to Consortium Zenith BUCG Sdn Bhd back in February 2013 after the latter submitted the lowest bid of RM6.3bil under a public tender exercise. While no details were unveiled, The Edge Malaysia report revealed that some of the other bidders include IJM, WCT, Gamuda and MRCB. The report added that Zenith BUCG hopes to sign a formal agreement this year – targeted within a month or so. This follows the finalisation of major points under the agreement with the Penang government following four months of negotiations. • Key project components. The main segments includes: - Expansion of an existing paired road from Tg.Bungah to Teluk Bahang (12km), which includes either a bridge or tunnel crossing Mt.Erskine (12km); - Road and tunnel link between Lebuhraya Tun Dr. Lim Chong Eu and Ayer Hitam (5km); - Road and tunnel link between Lebuhraya Tun Dr. Lim Chong Eu to Persiaran Gurney Highway (4.2km); and - Penang-Butterwoth link (7.2km). This includes a 6.5km-long undersea tunnel connecting George Town and Butterworth. • Ten-year project. We understand that the project would be broken down into four phases. The first three phases would involve the construction of the bypasses along Penang Island as highlighted above, while the final leg involves the construction of the main Penang-Butterworth link. The project forms part of the Penang government’s plans to mitigate traffic congestion and improve social economic linkages, especially within the mainland. The existing road network does not have a middle-ring road within the island that can channel traffic out, while roads within Georgetown and the city centre are too small to cope with heavy traffic load. • Budgeted at RM6.3bil. The total cost of this project is estimated at RM6.3bil. The 6.5km-long undersea tunnel is seen as the third link that bridges Penang Island with the mainland. Comparatively, the ongoing Penang Second Bridge project – scheduled to be completed this month - has a 16.9km over-sea span that costs c.RM4.5bil. • Funding. As consideration for building the tunnel and by-pass roads, Zenith BUCG would be: (1) Awarded a 30-year toll concession: The toll collection applies only to the undersea tunnel portion, with toll rates being tied to the second link. (2) Given 110 acres of reclaimed land: This large tract of land will come from the Eastern & Oriental Bhd’s (E&O) Sri Tanjung Pinang 2 (STP2) development. Out of this, 50 acres are located along the shoreline towards Gurney Drive while 60 acres would be on a man-made island. We understand that the first three phases would likely be funded using the land as collateral for the consortium to secure bank financing. As for the undersea tunnel that would likely account for a bulk of its cost, this portion could either be funded via future toll revenue or construction/development profits earned from the first three phases. The undersea works could start by 2020 To monetise its land entitlement, Zenith BUCG has reportedly signed MoUs with well-known international developers keen on gaining a foothold in Penang. However, no further details were revealed. PP 12246/05/2013 (032379) • CONSTRUCTION 9 September 2013 • Who’s behind the consortium? The Zenith respective development landbanks within Penang BUCG SPV is made up of Malaysian and Chinese island. contractors. They are: Zenith Construction Sdn Bhd-China Railway Construction Co (CRCC) JV, • Maintain OVERWEIGHT. The positive progress Beijing Urban Construction Group (BUCG), Sri made on the Penang undersea tunnel project could Tinggi Sdn Bhd and Juteras Sdn Bhd. While the be a marker for more large-scale project financing exact structure has yet to be finalised, we in Malaysia that can be unleashed with minimal or understand that local parties would take up 90% of no government support while aiding the Federal the SPV. The Chinese parties would not participate government to balance its books. in the toll collection. Intuitively, we believe three key drivers are vital to Both state-owned CRCC and BUCG are support these initiatives:- (i) non-cash construction heavyweights from China that would considerations as payment-in-kind (e.g. land, lend considerable financial muscle and concessions); (ii) innovative public-private sector construction capabilities within the consortium. On partnership models (e.g. Gateway@KLIA2; co- the other hand, Zenith is a G7-class contractor developed by WCT and Malaysia Airports registered with the Construction Industry Holdings); and (iii) foreign-backed funding at Development Board (CIDB). Some of its project attractive rates tied with shared work opportunities portfolios include a luxury condominium on Jln between local and contractors from the funding Stonor KL, 1,000-unit low cost flats in Sabah under country (e.g. Pahang portion of the Pahang- the Ministry of Housing & Local government and Selangor inter-state raw water transfer program – the rebuilding of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s loan from the Japan Bank of International Corp, management centre. Completing the team are Sri estimated at c.1%). Tinggi and Juteras, both Class A contractors that have also obtained G7 CIDB certification. More importantly, we expect newsflow momentum on the construction sector to pick up from 4Q13 • Litmus test . How the Penang undersea tunnel onwards after a lull in 3Q13 - with the project is funded serves as a litmus test for future pronouncements of several catalyctic projects with infrastructure projects in Malaysia. This comes low import content and high multiplier effects. To amid fresh concerns that the Federal government be sure, the Fiscal Policy Committee (FPC) chaired may re-prioritise several major infrastructure by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak last week projects to strengthen its fiscal position. Moreover, had announced that all three lines of the Klang unlike other federal-funded initiatives that require Valley MRT would proceed as planned along with the government’s financial assistance or five other high impact projects (Menara Warisan guarantees, this project requires none of these. Merdeka, Naza’s Matrade Exhibition Centre, the Rubber Research Institute development in All said, we believe execution is key as this project Sg.Buloh, Pudu Jail redevelopment and Tun Razak would likely be cash flow negative for five years Exchange). before the consortium can recoup some of its investments via the monetisation of the reclaimed Other potential job opportunities in months ahead land and future toll revenue. could come from Langat 2, the West Coast Expressway (WCE), basic infrastructure works for • Who benefits? While details remain sketchy at this PETRONAS’ RAPID, as well as the rapid juncture, we foresee some potential contract development agendas of SCORE and Iskandar outsourcing opportunities for local contractors – Malaysia. given the sheer size and time-sensitive nature of this massive project. As such, we see cost- competitive contractors such as WCT to be in a position to secure sub-contracting roles. Likewise, the ten-year horizon for this job would prod demand for building material products. Ann Joo Resources is well-positioned to benefit from this, given the strategic location of its steel plants that are located in Prai, Penang. Other key beneficiaries include IJM’s ICP (supply of large- diameter pipes), Lion Industries (steel), Lafarge Malaysia (cement) and KimLun Corp (tunnel lining products). On the property front, we count IJM Land (The Lights), Mah Sing (Soutbay) and E&O (STP 1 & 2) as among the potential beneficiaries – as together with the second bridge – the undersea tunnel project would improve connectivity to their AmResearch Sdn Bhd 2 CONSTRUCTION 9 September 2013 CHART 1: PENANG TRAFFIC ALLEVIATION PROJECT Source: TheEdgeWeekly, AmResearch CHART 2: LAND ENTITLEMENT FOR ZENITH BUCG Source: TheEdgeWeekly, AmResearch AmResearch Sdn Bhd 3 CONSTRUCTION 9 September 2013 Published by The information and opinions in this report were prepared by AmResearch Sdn Bhd. The investments discussed or recommended in AmResearch Sdn Bhd (335015-P) this report may not be suitable for all investors. This report has been prepared for information purposes only and is not an offer to (A member of the AmInvestment Bank Group) sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. The directors and employees of AmResearch Sdn Bhd may from time to time have a 15th Floor Bangunan AmBank Group position in or with the securities mentioned herein. Members of the AmInvestment Group and their affiliates may provide services to 55 Jalan Raja Chulan any company and affiliates of such companies whose securities are mentioned herein. The information herein was obtained or 50200 Kuala Lumpur derived from sources that we believe are reliable, but while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that stated facts are Tel: (03)2070-2444 (research) accurate and opinions fair and reasonable, we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as Fax: (03)2078-3162 such. No liability can be accepted for any loss that may arise from the use of this report. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Printed by For AmResearch Sdn Bhd AmResearch Sdn Bhd (335015-P) (A member of the AmInvestment Bank Group) 15th Floor Bangunan AmBank Group 55 JalanAmResearch Raja Chulan Sdn Bhd 4 50200 Kuala Lumpur Tel: (03)2070-2444 (research) Fax: (03)2078-3162 Benny Chew Managing Director .
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