ANALYSIS About the editor: Imprint Professor, Doctor of Philosophy, Georgi Karasimeonov is a Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung | Office Bulgaria Sofia lecturer at the University “St. Kliment Ohridski”, Director of the 97, Knjaz Boris I St. | 1000 Sofia | Bulgaria Institute for Political and Legal Studies. From 1991 to 1998 he was Chairman of the Bulgarian Political Science Association. Responsible: Helene Kortländer | Director, FES Bulgaria Tel.: +359 2 980 8747 | Fax: +359 2 980 2438 http://www.fes-bulgaria.org Orders e-mail: [email protected] Commercial use of all media published by the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) is not permitted without the written consent of the FES. Polit-Barometer GEORGI KARASIMEONOV (EDITOR) Year 18, Issue 1 – January-March 2018 n The political situation in the first months of 2018 was determined to a great extent by the political tension created around the ratification of the Istanbul Convention and the deal with CEZ. These two events moved the focus of public attention away from the start of the rotational Presidency of Bulgaria of the Council of the EU. Despite the po- litical controversies, the Presidency has been running successfully so far. The govern- ment has focused its efforts on two main priorities - integration of the Western Bal- kans into the EU and bringing the relations between the EU and Turkey back to normal. n BSP tried to use the scandals and to harden the tone against the government. The cases with the Istanbul Convention and CEZ were used by the socialists to attack the government. This showed that BSP has the resources and the capability to set the political agenda in its capacity of opposition. At the same time, however, the party risks taking a populist turn if it uses any topic popular for the people in order to create clash- es with the government and misses the main problems of this country. n GERB was engaged on two fronts: on one hand it had to mitigate the conflicts with its coalition partners, and on the other – to respond to the attacks from the opposition, mainly BSP. The tension between the President of the country and the government becomes more and more apparent. Most likely, it will become even stronger and this will have a negative impact on inter-institutional relations. At this stage, the govern- ment coalition remains stable and no split is expected to happen imminently. The views expressed in this publication are not necessarily those of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung or of the organization for which the author works. GEORGI KARASIMEONOV (EDITOR) | POLIT-BAROMETER Sofia Content 1. Political Situation . 2 1 .1 Internal Policy . 2 1 .2 Foreign and European Policy . 5 1 .3 Refugee Crisis . 7 2. State and Development of the major political parties . 7 2 .1 Social-Democratic and other center-left parties . 7 2 .1 BSP .1 . 7 Current state . 7 Recommendations . 8 2 .1 ABV .2 – Movement 21 . 8 Current state . 8 Recommendations . 9 2 .1 Party .3 Bulgarian Social Democrats . 9 Current state . 9 Recommendations . 10 2 .2 Center-Right Parties . 10 2 .2 GERB .1 . 10 2 .2 Reformist .2 Block . 11 2 .2 DSB .3 . 11 2 .2 Yes, .4 Bulgaria! . 12 2 .3 Centrist Parties . 12 2 .3 MRF .1 . 12 2 .3 DOST .2 . 13 2 .3 “Volya” .3 (“Will” in Bulgarian) . 13 2 .4 Nationalist Parties . 13 2 .4 United .1 Patriots . 13 2 .5 Positions of Political Parties on Foreign and European Policies . 14 3. Public Opinion . 15 4. Main Conclusions and Forecasts . 15 1 GEORGI KARASIMEONOV (EDITOR) | POLIT-BAROMETER Sofia 1 . Political Situation United Patriots expressed their concern that that Convention would open the door for making gay 1 .1 Internal Policy marriages legal in this country and that would be absolutely unacceptable for them . The point was At the beginning of January, Bulgaria took over reached where even GERB ministers voted against the Presidency of the Council of the EU – an event the proposal for ratification during the government charged with a lot of expectations, which never- meeting . Regardless of that, the Cabinet submitted theless was left in the background of public atten- the draft law for ratification in the Parliament, and tion, due to the series of scandals that shook the Prime Minister Borisov said the Convention must governing majority . be ratified. BSP also stood against the ratification. The party said that they would not support it in the At the end of January the first vote of no confi- vote in the Plenary Hall . A strong public reaction dence in the government was held upon the ini- followed, the point was reached where protests tiative of BSP, who stated the following motive: were organized . Dozens of prominent intellectuals lack of results in combatting corruption . Obvious- and public figures stood against the Convention. ly, the vote was unsuccessful; it was supported President Rumen Radev said that one should not only with the votes of BSP and MRF . The debate rush to ratify the Convention because there were on the vote was not a convincing one – it turned quite a number of unclarities in it that need to be- into mutual accusations between the majority come clear after a serious public debate . BSP even and the opposition . BSP reminded people of cas- proposed having a referendum on the topic – an es already known to the public, like the scandal idea that was later rejected by the National Assem- in Haskovo concerning Delyan Dobrev; the one in bly . The government decided to organize a public Dobrich where a GERB MP – Zhivko Martinov - re- debate on the topic, which demonstrated that the signed, and the corruption along the state border votes against the Convention significantly outnum- in connection with the construction of the fence . ber those in its favor . The vote of no confidence did not have the effect the Left had expected, even in terms of public re- Despite the statements of the supporters of the sponse and attention . Convention that it is only against violence against women, the introduction of the concept of “gen- In an internal political plan, the past quarter was der” and the requirement that schoolchildren start dominated by two scandals – the attempt to ratify learning about the existing stereotypes regarding the so-called Istanbul Convention and the transac- the social roles of the sexes resulted in insur- tion with the largest power distribution company mountable public contradictions where even peo- in Bulgaria owned by the Czech company CEZ . ple of opposing political positions actually shared the same opinion . The representatives of all faiths As early as at the first meeting of the government in in this country opposed to the Convention – start- 2018, the Ministry of Justice submitted a draft for ing from the Orthodox church, the Mufti’s office, ratification of the Istanbul Convention that resulted and the representatives of the Catholic church . In in a sharp reaction by political parties and the pub- the end, two months later, the strong public sen- lic . The convention was signed in the time of the timents made the government withdraw their de- previous government of Borisov by Ekaterina Zaha- cision to ratify the Convention by sending it to the rieva, the then Minister of Justice . The motion was Constitutional Court for interpretation . made without any pubic discussions and came as a surprise even for the coalition partners of GERB At the beginning of March a new scandal burst out in the government – the United Patriots . They cat- that has taken on more and more international di- egorically stated that they would not back the rat- mensions, because it regards the sale of the assets ification of the Convention at the National Assem- of the Czech state company CEZ in Bulgaria to a bly because they believed it introduced the notion previously unknown company – Inercom, owned of “gender” which they regard as a “third sex” . The by Ginka Varbakova . After the announcement of 2 GEORGI KARASIMEONOV (EDITOR) | POLIT-BAROMETER Sofia the deal, the government’s initial reaction was one vices and the Director of the state-owned Bulgar- of complete surprise . The Chairman of the Energy ian Development Bank which was mentioned in Committee of the Parliament and GERB MP Del- media reports as one of the banks (along with two yan Dobrev, said that this was ‘fake news’ . A day other Bulgarian banks) intending to finance the later Minister of Energy Temenuzhka Petkova sub- deal . The boss of the Development Bank Mavrodi- mitted her resignation after the media published ev informed that they had received a letter from In- the news that she had known Ginka Varbakova ercom with a question as to whether they would be for years . The resignation was strange and unex- interested in financing that deal. As in other similar pected, provided that the government had claimed cases their response was that they provide loans from the very beginning that they had nothing to for such deals in principle, but no specific commit- do with that deal, that they had not known about ment was made . The other two Bulgarian banks it and that it was a deal between two companies denied that they would finance that deal. The secu- that had been concluded in the Czech Republic ac- rity services stated that they have no competence cording to the legislation there . Petkova motivat- for scrutinizing such deals and could check the or- ed her resignation with her intention to save her igin of funds only after the deal is concluded and image after the scandal and to not harm the gov- a money transaction has been made . What the ernment in any way .