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Home , Temenuzhka Petkova, United Patriots, Valeri Simeonov

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About the editor: Imprint

Professor, Doctor of Philosophy, Georgi Karasimeonov is a Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung | Office Bulgaria Sofia lecturer at the University “St. Kliment Ohridski”, Director of the 97, Knjaz Boris I St. | 1000 Sofia | Bulgaria Institute for Political and Legal Studies. From 1991 to 1998 he was Chairman of the Bulgarian Political Science Association. Responsible: Helene Kortländer | Director, FES Bulgaria Tel.: +359 2 980 8747 | Fax: +359 2 980 2438 http://www.fes-bulgaria.org

Orders e-mail: [email protected]

Commercial use of all media published by the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) is not permitted without the written consent of the FES. Polit-Barometer

GEORGI KARASIMEONOV (EDITOR) Year 18, Issue 1 – January-March 2018

n The political situation in the first months of 2018 was determined to a great extent by the political tension created around the ratification of the Istanbul Convention and the deal with CEZ. These two events moved the focus of public attention away from the start of the rotational Presidency of Bulgaria of the Council of the EU. Despite the political controversies, the Presidency has been running successfully so far. The government has focused its efforts on two main priorities - integration of the Western Bal- kans into the EU and bringing the relations between the EU and Turkey back to normal.

n BSP tried to use the scandals and to harden the tone against the government. The cases with the Istanbul Convention and CEZ were used by the socialists to attack the government. This showed that BSP has the resources and the capability to set the political agenda in its capacity of opposition. At the same time, however, the party risks taking a populist turn if it uses any topic popular for the people in order to create clashes with the government and misses the main problems of this country.

n GERB was engaged on two fronts: on one hand it had to mitigate the conflicts with its coalition partners, and on the other – to respond to the attacks from the opposition, mainly BSP. The tension between the President of the country and the government becomes more and more apparent. Most likely, it will become even stronger and this will have a negative impact on inter-institutional relations. At this stage, the government coalition remains stable and no split is expected to happen imminently.

The views expressed in this publication are not necessarily those of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung or of the organization for which the author works. GEORGI KARASIMEONOV (EDITOR) | POLIT-BAROMETER

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Content 1. Political Situation...... 2 1 .1 Internal Policy...... 2 1 .2 Foreign and European Policy...... 5 1 .3 Refugee Crisis...... 7

2. State and Development of the major political parties...... 7 2 .1 Social-Democratic and other center-left parties ...... 7 2 .1 BSP 1...... 7 Current state...... 7 Recommendations ...... 8 2 .1 ABV 2. – Movement 21...... 8 Current state...... 8 Recommendations ...... 9 2 .1 Party 3. Bulgarian Social Democrats ...... 9 Current state...... 9 Recommendations ...... 10 2 .2 Center-Right Parties ...... 10 2 .2 GERB 1...... 10 2 .2 Reformist 2. Block...... 11 2 .2 DSB 3...... 11 2 .2 Yes, 4. Bulgaria!...... 12 2 .3 Centrist Parties...... 12 2 .3 MRF 1...... 12 2 .3 DOST 2...... 13 2 .3 “Volya” 3. (“Will” in Bulgarian)...... 13 2 .4 Nationalist Parties...... 13 2 .4 United 1. Patriots...... 13 2 .5 Positions of Political Parties on Foreign and European Policies...... 14

3. Public Opinion...... 15

4. Main Conclusions and Forecasts...... 15

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1 . Political Situation United Patriots expressed their concern that that Convention would open the door for making gay 1 .1 Internal Policy marriages legal in this country and that would be absolutely unacceptable for them . The point was At the beginning of January, Bulgaria took over reached where even GERB ministers voted against the Presidency of the Council of the EU – an event the proposal for ratification during the government charged with a lot of expectations, which never- meeting . Regardless of that, the Cabinet submitted theless was left in the background of public atten- the draft law for ratification in the Parliament, and tion, due to the series of scandals that shook the Prime Minister Borisov said the Convention must governing majority . be ratified. BSP also stood against the ratification. The party said that they would not support it in the At the end of January the first vote of no confi- vote in the Plenary Hall . A strong public reaction dence in the government was held upon the ini- followed, the point was reached where protests tiative of BSP, who stated the following motive: were organized . Dozens of prominent intellectuals lack of results in combatting corruption . Obvious- and public figures stood against the Convention. ly, the vote was unsuccessful; it was supported President Rumen Radev said that one should not only with the votes of BSP and MRF . The debate rush to ratify the Convention because there were on the vote was not a convincing one – it turned quite a number of unclarities in it that need to be- into mutual accusations between the majority come clear after a serious public debate . BSP even and the opposition . BSP reminded people of cas- proposed having a referendum on the topic – an es already known to the public, like the scandal idea that was later rejected by the National Assem- in Haskovo concerning Delyan Dobrev; the one in bly . The government decided to organize a public Dobrich where a GERB MP – Zhivko Martinov - re- debate on the topic, which demonstrated that the signed, and the corruption along the state border votes against the Convention significantly outnum- in connection with the construction of the fence . ber those in its favor . The vote of no confidence did not have the effect the Left had expected, even in terms of public re- Despite the statements of the supporters of the sponse and attention . Convention that it is only against violence against women, the introduction of the concept of “gen- In an internal political plan, the past quarter was der” and the requirement that schoolchildren start dominated by two scandals – the attempt to ratify learning about the existing stereotypes regarding the so-called Istanbul Convention and the transac- the social roles of the sexes resulted in insur- tion with the largest power distribution company mountable public contradictions where even peo- in Bulgaria owned by the Czech company CEZ . ple of opposing political positions actually shared the same opinion . The representatives of all faiths As early as at the first meeting of the government in in this country opposed to the Convention – start- 2018, the Ministry of Justice submitted a draft for ing from the Orthodox church, the Mufti’s office, ratification of the Istanbul Convention that resulted and the representatives of the Catholic church . In in a sharp reaction by political parties and the pub- the end, two months later, the strong public sen- lic . The convention was signed in the time of the timents made the government withdraw their de- previous government of Borisov by Ekaterina Zaha- cision to ratify the Convention by sending it to the rieva, the then Minister of Justice . The motion was Constitutional Court for interpretation . made without any pubic discussions and came as a surprise even for the coalition partners of GERB At the beginning of March a new scandal burst out in the government – the United Patriots . They cat- that has taken on more and more international di- egorically stated that they would not back the rat- mensions, because it regards the sale of the assets ification of the Convention at the National Assem- of the Czech state company CEZ in Bulgaria to a bly because they believed it introduced the notion previously unknown company – Inercom, owned of “gender” which they regard as a “third sex” . The by Ginka Varbakova . After the announcement of

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the deal, the government’s initial reaction was one vices and the Director of the state-owned Bulgar- of complete surprise . The Chairman of the Energy ian Development Bank which was mentioned in Committee of the Parliament and GERB MP Del- media reports as one of the banks (along with two yan Dobrev, said that this was ‘fake news’ . A day other Bulgarian banks) intending to finance the later Minister of Energy Temenuzhka Petkova sub- deal . The boss of the Development Bank Mavrodi- mitted her resignation after the media published ev informed that they had received a letter from In- the news that she had known Ginka Varbakova ercom with a question as to whether they would be for years . The resignation was strange and unex- interested in financing that deal. As in other similar pected, provided that the government had claimed cases their response was that they provide loans from the very beginning that they had nothing to for such deals in principle, but no specific commit- do with that deal, that they had not known about ment was made . The other two Bulgarian banks it and that it was a deal between two companies denied that they would finance that deal. The secu- that had been concluded in the Czech Republic ac- rity services stated that they have no competence cording to the legislation there . Petkova motivat- for scrutinizing such deals and could check the or- ed her resignation with her intention to save her igin of funds only after the deal is concluded and image after the scandal and to not harm the gov- a money transaction has been made . What the ernment in any way . The opposition represented boss of the Bulgarian Agency for National Security by BSP deemed Petkova’s resignation an attempt said made an impression – that the selling price on the part of Boyko Borisov and the government for CEZ was increased . Given the evaluation of 220 to mitigate the growing scandal from the word go . million Euro, the initial information was that Ginka It did not work – moreover, the resignation pinned Varbakova was buying at 320 million Euro . At the the attention of the public to the deal and to Ginka end of March CEZ CEO Daniel Benes said in an in- Varbakova, who had not been in the public eye until terview for a Czech media outlet that the price was then . Publications appeared about the businesses actually “a lot more than 320 million Euro”, which of Ginka Varbakova claiming that her husband had fuelled even more the suspicion that something had businesses in the past in partnership with peo- untoward was happening . Varbakova told the par- ple close to ‘groups of violent force’ . liamentary Committee that it was not Bulgarian but foreign banks who would provide the financing The first interview Ginka Varbakova gave to one of and that negotiations were underway for that . Iner- the nationwide TV channels made the suspicions com would offer the shares of the company they even greater that there was something irregular buy as collateral for the loans . about the deal and about the possibility that there might have been other people who were actual- Varbakova went to Prague to present the request ly behind it . Varbakova stated that she deals with of the Bulgarian government to become part of photovoltaic businesses and would rely on bank the deal . CEZ responded that they would think financing in order to close the deal. She denied the about this proposal, but stated that they had some claims that offshore companies had provided the reservations because there is an arbitration proce- financing. It became clear that she would provide dure currently open between CEZ and the state of slightly more than 10% of the value of deal from Bulgaria for a sum that might reach 500 million her own funds which in itself is quite strange . Euro . The arbitration procedure was initiated by the Czech company . In an attempt to mitigate the scandal, Prime Min- ister Borisov met with Ginka Varbakova at the The government continued sending out different Council of Ministers . After the meeting it became and contradictory messages . Only a couple of clear that the Prime Minister insisted that the gov- days after stating their willingness to take part in ernment participate in the deal with a minimum the deal, which in all likelihood seems impossible, of 34% control share . Varbakova was heard at the Minister of Finance Goranov stated that it would Energy Committee of the National Assembly . Also not be a good idea for the government to partic- present were representatives of the security ser- ipate . In his words, the deal with CEZ would not

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result in energy price increase as the Regulator orities of the Presidency, everyone is focused on has all the tools and mechanisms available to this scandal . scrutinize that process . The government decided not to accept Minister of Energy Temenuzhka The tension between the President and the gov- Petkova’s resignation with the support of all coa- erning majority also continued to be present in lition partners . the first months of 2018. In his report on his first year in office President Rumen Radev criticized The scandal was also fueled in Czech media out- the functioning of parliamentarism in this country . lets. The Czech office of Transparency Internation- According to his words, “Parliament has become al stated that the deal should be stopped and that a Notary Public’s office for legalizing the decisions CEZ should open a new procedure due to suspi- of the government” and this results in “the parlia- cions of unclear funding and of an opportunity for mentary republic’s dystrophy” . Radev addressed money laundering from offshore bank accounts . some criticism to the government regarding the lack of results in fighting corruption. He deemed In an interview for Czech media the CEZ CEO the new anti-corruption act ineffective, which was stated that they pulled out of Bulgaria because the reason for his veto . According to Radev, cor- Prime Minister Boyko Borisov disliked them and ruption remains a huge problem and the govern- they had problems with the state . This claim shed ment have fulfilled their commitment to the Eu- doubts yet again about the business climate in ropean commission only formally, but in practice this country and the reasons why many foreign the result is completely different . In his words, the investors have sold their businesses over recent fight against corruption is still done only by the years . Recently, the mobile operator Telecom has public and the media because there is no will on done the same . Such was also the case with the the part of the government do so . Radev criticized owners of Nova TV . The statement of the CEZ the state of democracy in Bulgaria, saying that CEO made the opposition attack the government freedom of expression is questioned . The Presi- yet again, claiming that the government chase dent declared that his efforts next year will be fo- out investors and arbitration cases are opened cused on safeguarding the democratic rights of against the state . Bulgarians, on guaranteeing national sovereignty and on enforcing the rule of law. Upon a BSP initiative a temporary parliamentary inquiry committee was formed to clarify the cir- After President Radev’s statement, a reaction fol- cumstances around the sale of the assets of CEZ lowed by the Speaker of the National Assembly in Bulgaria . GERB MPs supported the proposal Tsveta Karayancheva . She stated that the Pres- but insisted that the period was covered when ident should be a unifier of the nation and not a the power distribution companies were privatized promoter of degrading qualifications. According to during the term of office of Simeon Saxe Coburg Karayancheva the President introduces ‘catastroph- of Gotha’s government . The committee is headed ic language’ as a style which does not correspond to by Zhelyu Boychev from BSP . Boychev said that reality, moreover, the current EU Council Presidency the committee will hear Ginka Varbakova once shows the respect of the partners to Bulgaria . again and that it will invite Prime Minister Boyko Borisov to a hearing too . The relations between the President and the Prime Minister remained tense during this last Internal-political scandals moved the focus away quarter too . Some harsh rhetoric was exchanged from the EU Council Presidency . After the erup- between the two . It all started after an interview tion of the scandal with the CEZ deal, BSP leader of PM Borisov where he mentioned that Ivo Hris- Kornelia Ninova even stated that “the Presiden- tov, Chief of the Cabinet of the President, was Di- cy is over and done with” . According to her, after rector of the BBT TV station owned by MRF MP this deal, the Prime Minister has embarrassed Delyan Peevski . The statement that Peevski was the country and, instead of talking about the pri- owner of the TV station was not true and was

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refuted immediately by Ivo Hristov, and also by had rejected the Presidential veto . The doubts re- Delyan Peevski, who wrote a letter to the media . garding its efficiency still remain, as well as the Rumen Radev said that the mention of the name doubts regarding the independence of the new of Delyan Peevski and members of his adminis- body established by that law from the government tration is a harsh manipulation and, in turn, asked in power . As expected, Plamen Georgiev, the then the Prime Minister three questions: Has he been Chairman of the Commission for Forfeiture of Ille- meeting and is he still meeting Peevski? Has he gal Assets, was elected Head of the new anti-cor- ever had and does he still have joint business in- ruption unit . The opposition did not vote in favor terests with Peevski? Has he ever awarded and is of that election, pointing out that Georgiev was the he still awarding public procurement contracts in prosecutor who had requested the wire-tapping the interest of Delyan Peevski? on the Customs boss Vanio Tanov, when there was a leak in the media about his telephone con- For years, the opinion has existed among some versation with PM Borisov ordering him to termi- members of the public that there are connec- nate a customs’ investigation of a brewery which tions between Prime Minister Borisov and Delyan had its license for operation withdrawn . Peevski . The topic has been subject of comments and analysis on many occasions . At this moment, however, questions are asked at the highest lev- 1 .2 Foreign and European Policy el of state about those relations, which indicates that the President will not remain a passive Bulgaria became a rotational President of the EU on-looker and is ready to take a stand on topics Council in the beginning of January . Despite the that the government feels extremely uncomfort- delay in the preparations last year, the Presiden- able about . Prime Minister Borisov gave immedi- cy started normally. At the official opening in So- ately an extraordinary media briefing and denied fia, the President of the European Council Donald any relations whatsoever with the media oligarch . Tusk gave a high evaluation of Bulgaria, defining Borisov stated that his conscience is clean and the country as an important part of the Union with urged Radev, if he had any information whatsoev- its centuries-old history and culture . Tusk deliv- er of the alleged wrongdoings of him and Peevski, ered his speech in Bulgarian language as a sign of to submit it to the Prosecutor’s office without any respect to this country - a gesture that was widely delay . According to Borisov the President is jeal- discussed in public and highly appreciated by Bul- ous of his foreign political success and the atten- garian citizens . tion he is receiving from European leaders during the EU Council Presidency . In the context of the Presidency, an important highlight was the visit of the German Chancellor These events demonstrate that the relations be- Angela Merkel . She backed Bulgaria’s priorities tween the President and the Prime Minister will during the Presidency and announced to the me- remain tense . On one hand, President Radev is the dia that Bulgaria would host a Summit between politician with the highest rating in this country, EU and Turkey in a press-conference . The main twice as high as that of Prime Minister Borisov . topic would be bringing the relations to normal On the other hand, GERB are not used to having a and extending the agreement on the refugees – serious corrective of this caliber, and the attacks a priority that Prime Minister Borisov promised to against Radev, which started last year are hardly work on during the Presidency . likely to stop . The President, on his part, pledged to be a corrective of the status quo as early as his The summit was scheduled for 26 March and it pre-election campaign and it looks like this style of was not clear until the last moment whether it behavior will continue in the future too . would take place, due to the tension between Tur- key, Greece and Cyprus . The Summit as such was At the end of February the new Anti-corruption a success for the Bulgarian Presidency and Prime Act became effective after the National Assembly Minister Borisov . As one of the goals during the

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Presidency he set the normalization of the EU-Tur- Another major topic on which the government is key relations and took on the role of a go-between working during the Presidency is implementing in this quite awkward task . Prime Minister Borisov the EU integration of the Western Balkans . In this stated his expectations that the Summit would respect, an enhanced pro-activeness can be ob- be difficult and tense, but, in his words, dialogue served on the part of the Bulgarian government . was the only way to resolve problems and reach Bulgaria set an example of how the relations in the some normalization of relations . Yet again, Bor- region can be normalized after signing the good isov stated that Turkey is playing a very important neighborly relations treaty with Macedonia . It was role in deterring the refugee influx into Europe and also ratified by the Macedonian parliament at the despite the difficult situation in that country, these beginning of January . An important event in the efforts of Turkey should be appreciated . After the spirit of the new relations between Sofia and Sko- meeting the participants stressed that it was in pje was the participation of Prime Minister Borisov the spirit of constructiveness and was a step to- in the memorial service for the victims of the Ho- ward improving EU-Turkey relations . locaust in Macedonia to mark the 75th anniversa- ry of the deportation of Macedonian Jews to the At the European Council session in Brussels at the death camps. For the first time Bulgarian Prime end of March, one of the topics for discussion was Minister attended this service . Borisov said that the poisoning or Sergei Skripal and his daughter history should not be forgotten and expressed his in Britain . The European leaders expresses unani- sympathy for all Holocaust victims . mous solidarity with the UK and backed the position that Russia probably was behind the attempt At the beginning of March Sofia hosted a working on their lives . Prime Minister Borisov said that lunch attended by the heads of state of the West- he requested more evidence on Russia’s involve- ern Balkan countries and Jean-Claude Juncker . ment beyond Theresa May’s phrase “high level of This was the final stop of the tour of the region probability” . Borisov mentioned the war on Iraq, that the President of the European Commission where the main motive was Saddam Hussein’s made . The main topics of discussion were related regime being in possession of chemical weapons to the development of the region, investment in in- and “everyone had believed Britain then, but Tony frastructure projects, and dispute resolution in the Blair apologized later” . In his words, the decision relations between the Balkan states . This lunch of the European leaders to call in the EU Ambas- was also preparation for the Summit between the sador to the Russian Federation for consultation EU and the leaders from the Western Balkans to demonstrates that, in spite of Brexit, the UK and be held in Sofia on 17 May this year. the EU share the same positions, they are insepa- rably connected, and support each other . Borisov The visit of Russia’s Patriarch Kiril to Bulgaria for expressed his concern that the EU-Russia rela- the celebrations of the National Day 3 March, the tions will continue to deteriorate and this calls for day of Bulgaria’s Liberation, caused a great deal of more reason and responsibility in our actions . As public discourse . Patriarch Kiril said that he was a token of solidarity with Britain, Bulgaria called leaving this country saddened by the fact that the in its ambassador to Moscow, Kotsev, for con- President of Bulgaria had paid homage to all the sultations in Sofia. After a meeting of the Secu- soldiers of various nationalities who had fought un- rity Council with the Council of Ministers, where der the flags of the Russian emperor in his official Ambassador Kotsev was heard, the government speeches . After his departure, the website of the decided not to recall Bulgarian diplomats from office of the Patriarch of Russia published a video Moscow, like other countries both within and out- from the meeting of the Russian Patriarch with the side the EU did . Prime Minister Borisov stressed President of Bulgaria Rumen Radev, where Kiril as- that there was not enough evidence on the Skri- sertively explained that it was the Russian emper- pal case for the time being, therefore the reaction or and the state of Russia that announced the war of Bulgaria would be calling in the ambassador on Turkey, and not the nations that were then part for consultations . of the Russian Empire, and that that is a historical

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fact . This caused some harsh reaction in the pub- with the latest sociological studies showing that lic space and indicated yet again how polarized the the gap in electoral support of the two leading public of Bulgaria is vis-à-vis Russia, particularly at parties is decreasing . Two main themes were the political and party level. The Office of the President reason for critical reactions from the BSP - the Is- made a statement that the President’s response tanbul Convention and the CEZ deal . was as follows: “Like the church fights for the soul of every person, so are we grateful and honor the BSP has expressed a strong stance against the Is- memory of every soldier who fought in the Russian tanbul Convention and, in particular, with regard to army under the flags of Emperor Alexander II and the unclear opinion of many texts, introducing the lost his life for the freedom of Bulgaria, regardless term “gender” . The party leadership said another of his nationality ”. President Radev said that the approach in this case is needed – in order to make Russian Patriarch came to this country as a spir- changes at the legislative level, which are related itual leader but decided to leave as a politician; to violence against women . however, this could in no way influence the relations between our two nations, who cherish deep According to the Socialists there are passages in historical and cultural connections . the convention that divide Bulgarian society and are open to different interpretations . BSP introduced legislative amendments to the Penal Code 1 .3 Refugee Crisis to incriminate domestic violence . The party stated that they have always defended women’s rights At the beginning of the year, no migration pres- and denounced all forms of violence . According sure was observed from Turkey towards this to the BSP, the changes introduced will fill the void country . This is due to the commitments that in the legislation and this will lead to greater ef- the Turkish side has been fulfilling so far. This fectiveness in the fight against domestic violence is why it is of particular importance to the Bul- and violence against women . garian government to assist in normalizing the EU-Turkey dialogue and to extend the term of the The resistance to the adoption of the Istanbul Con- agreement on the refugees . vention, however, led to tensions between BSP and PES, which is chaired by former party leader Sergey At the session of the EU Council on Justice and Stanishev . Stanishev expressed his bewilderment Home Affairs in Sofia at the end of January, it about the position of BSP . In his words, the policy became clear that it will be hard to reach con- of protecting women has always been a priority for sensus on receiving refugees based on quotas, the Socialists . Stanishev expressed concern that which the countries from the Visegrad Group BSP is demonstrating solidarity with positions that strongly oppose . The negotiations on this matter are backed by nationalist formations . will continue in June . A severe letter to BSP leader Kornelia Ninova was 2 . State and Development of the Main sent by the PES women’s chairwoman, Zita Gurmai, Political Parties urging BSP to back the ratification of the convention . The letter says that BSP risks becoming the 2 .1 Social-Democratic and Other Center-Left Parties only party in the PES that is against the convention .

2 .1 .1 BSP Another topic to which BSP reacted extremely gravely was the deal between CEZ and Inercom, Current State which has already been mentioned . BSP saw a threat to the national security of the country in BSP took advantage of the scandals related to the that an unknown company was buying a strate- ruling party and strengthened its opposition rhet- gic company that affects the rights of 3 million oric . This brings some success to the Socialists, consumers . BSP insisted that the deal between

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Inercom and CEZ be terminated and under the on popular topics, such as the Istanbul Conven- new procedure, the state would join on a market tion, and the necessity of offering alternative man- principle together with other candidates to buy the agement decisions and policies . By only relying on whole company . BSP strongly opposed GERB’s the first variant, BSP risks taking a populist course idea of buying a minority stake in the company . that could bring short-term dividends, but in the According to BSP, this would only legitimize the long run could damage the party’s values . deal, and the state would become a partner of a company with an obscure owner, behind which there probably was offshore capital . 2 .1 .2 ABV and Movement 21

BSP initiated a national petition for the termination Current State of the deal, which, the party suggested, although it could not have any direct legal consequences, Like the other opposition parties, ABV and Move- would be a moral act to show that citizens do not ment 21 also severely condemned the CEZ deal . approve of such non-transparent transactions . ABV issued a political statement on a scandal that broke out with the sale of the energy com- At the end of March, BSP leader Kornelia Ninova, pany owned by CEZ . In it there is a call for all re- with a delegation of her party leadership, led by sponsible state institutions and regulatory bodies her, met in Skopje with Macedonian Prime Minister to intervene adequately and effectively, “including Zoran Zaev . The leaders of the two socialist parties using diplomatic channels and top-level talks with - BSP and SDSM (The Social Democratic Union of the Czech state, and for the annulment of the CEZ Macedonia) - signed a partnership agreement . deal” . After that, the State should set about revers- Ninova and Zaev discussed bilateral relations being the acquisition of this sector, either alone or tween the two countries, as well as Macedonia’s in partnership with strategic investors, while en- prospects for Euro-Atlantic integration . They also suring the maximum possible control and protec- discussed the meeting in Sofia on May 16th with tion of the public interest . According to the ABV, the prime ministers, commissioners and party the main blame for “the chaos being created lies leaders in Europe, which BSP and PES will host . entirely with the government and personally with BSP will host a meeting of the mayors of the two Prime Minister Borisov, who is directly responsible parties, who will discuss the regional partnership for everything that concerns the national security between the local authorities in both countries . of the country ”. The party urges that, regardless of how the CEZ scandal ends, Borisov should take The leaders of the party announced that they will political responsibility and resign . hold a large national conference in May to present their country’s vision for development . This The leader of Movement 21, Tatyana Doncheva, became apparent after a meeting of the National also commented on the deal with CEZ . In her Council of the Party in late March . The event will words, it is “a great outrage committed by people be attended by the municipal and district presi- who have taken control of the state to a much dents of the party, mayors, municipal councilors, greater extent than ordinary people want to imag- MPs and members of the National Council of BSP . ine ” . In Doncheva’s words, this transaction was “concluded with the agreement of Boyko Borisov” . Recommendations Rumen Petkov, a member of the ABV Executive At the level of opposition, BSP shows that it is ca- Bureau, said that besides the scandal over the CEZ pable of imposing an agenda, pressing the govern- deal, the development of the arbitration process ment on controversial issues, and opposing un- that CEZ is leading against the state is particular- popular decisions of the government . On the other ly important . Rumen Petkov also commented on hand, however, the party must strike a balance be- the decision of the Chief Prosecutor and the Pres- tween being extreme opposition, taking a stance ident to send to the Constitutional Court the bill

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on private security guards, which stipulates that for dialogue with the other left-wing parties should they guard the smaller settlements and villages in continue, despite tensions over the years . the country. Petkov reiterated that ABV had first raised the issue of what he said was an “absurd decision” of the ruling . According to him, this de- 2 .1 .3 Party “Bulgarian Social Democrats” cision is the abdication of the state from its main function of guaranteeing security and order in the Current state country and protecting the property of its citizens . In his words, the reasons for this decision are the At the beginning of 2018 there was certain activi- unfulfilled pre-election promise of GERB that there ty on the side of the Bulgarian Social Democrats . should be one policeman in each village . The party declared that they opposed the trans- fer of labor from abroad . According to the general Unlike BSP, ABV took a different stance on the secretary of the party, Georgi Anastasov, such a Istanbul Convention . Party leader Konstantin move would lead to an increase in unemployment Prodanov said that this issue has been the subject among Bulgarians, which would force many of of speculation, as various opposition parties have them to leave the country . Anastasov mentioned benefited from people’s fears. According to him, that the big problem in Bulgaria is low income and the patriots are using the situation to increase poverty, so efforts should be directed towards their diminished rating . The same was true of BSP, raising salaries and pensions . According to An- taking advantage of a subject that is subject to astasov, Bulgaria’s presidency of the Council of manipulative interpretations . Prodanov is categor- the EU should also be used to attract investment ical that the Istanbul Convention addresses the is- in the field of production, because it is one of the sue of violence against women and all forms of ways to increase incomes and the retention of Bul- discrimination on the basis of gender . According garians in the country . Anastasov said the issue to him, Bulgaria’s big problem is not the “third sex”, of income would be discussed in all party struc- but the socio-economic inequality in the country . tures in the country, after which a common position would be formulated, which would be sent to At the beginning of March, an ABV Expert Discus- employers’ and trade union organizations in the sion Forum again announced that they were in fa- country . The party intends to organize a round ta- vor of the dropping of the Belene Nuclear Power ble on the topic, to which stakeholders and organi- Plant moratorium to allow investors to complete zations should be invited . Anastasov said the par- the project . ABV leader Konstantin Prodanov said ty is preparing to participate independently in the to the participants in the forum that the project is upcoming elections for the European Parliament economically beneficial, because there is no nucle- and local government in the coming year . ar power station in the world that works at a loss . According to him, there is currently evidence of in- The Bulgarian Social Democrats party declared its vestment interest in the project; the only obstacle support for the ratification of the Istanbul Conven- is the parliamentary decision of 2013, which needs tion . Georgi Anastasov said that social democracy to be reviewed . According to Prodanov, the project has taken gender equality as a fundamental value should go ahead with strategic state participation for a long time . For him, the position of the BSP on because nowhere is there an entirely private NPP . the Istanbul Convention remains incomprehensi- ble, and this places the party along with nationalist Recommendations formations, which is unacceptable for a left party member of the PES and the Socialist International . For smaller parties such as ABV and Movement 21, the development of local party structures is According to Anastasov, with this leadership of exceptionally important . The upcoming local elec- BSP, the Socialist Party is covered by demagogy tions next year are a good opportunity for both and populism and is moving away from leftist parties to step up their grass roots work . Demand values . Anastasov commented that, despite the

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differences with the Socialists on certain issues ident Rumen Radev, which has confirmed the when they were part of the Coalition for Bulgaria, exacerbation of relations between the President there has always been a dialogue with previous and the government . Tsvetanov has stated that BSP leaders . In his words, with the new leadership Rumen Radev behaves not like a head of state of BSP in the face of Kornelia Ninova such a dia- and a unifier of the nation, but like a person behind logue is very difficult, indeed almost impossible. a political project . In connection with the attacks of Russian Patriarch Kiril, Tsvetanov expressed Recommendations doubts that President Radev had defended the national interest and called for the shorthand scripts The Bulgarian Social Democrats party should of conversations to be declassified. According to show a presence in the political life of the country . Tsvetanov, the presidential administration’s as- During this quarter there has been some recovery, sertions that a shorthand record is not kept are but not enough . The site of the party continues to frivolous . Tsvetanov pointed out that Radev was fail to function, which does not make a good im- defending positions on the sanctions against Rus- pression for a party with traditions in the country sia and that, along with the BSP, they are acting to and a member of the Socialist International . divert the country from its European path .

GERB has taken a defensive strategy on the deal 2 .2 Center-right parties between CEZ and Inercom, seeing that it negatively affects the credibility of the cabin and the 2 .2 .1 GERB party as a whole . The transparency of the deal is not commented on by GERB, but instead the idea In the first quarter of the year, GERB was busy is out forward that there will be no increase in the fighting the emerging tensions in the Coalition price of electricity, as this is in the powers of the with the United Patriots, and also government-re- state energy regulator - KEVR . In this way, GERB lated scandals . Several times after talks with the aims to reassure the public on a sensitive issue patriot leaders, chairman of the GERB parliamen- - the price of electricity, which is understandable . tary group Tsvetan Tsvetanov managed to ease tensions through dialogue and a pragmatic ap- At the end of March, Tsvetan Tsvetanov discussed proach . At this stage, GERB is managing to main- the current political situation in the country with tain stability in the coalition. Tsvetanov defined the representatives of GERB-Sofia as part of the the differences with the United Patriots as com- preparations for the local elections next year . He pletely natural and unrelated to the management emphasized the efforts of GERB aimed at imple- program . According to Tsvetanov, it is far easier menting successful local government policies . to work with the United Patriots than with the Re- At the meeting questions were raised related to form Party in the previous government because the problems and development of the district . In they adhere to the commitments made in the co- the framework of the working meeting, Tsveta- alition agreement . In his words, GERB has learned nov mentioned that GERB does not tolerate the lessons from the weaknesses in the coalition with division of municipalities into “ours and yours”, or the reformers, and now things are working much the political attempts to divide the people in the more smoothly, despite the momentary differenc- small settlements . In his words, GERB has always es . Because of this, he does not expect a split in tried to help people in the regions of the country the coalition, speculation about which is being and an example of this is the work of central au- spread in the public domain . thorities and the government . Tsvetanov said the party is always in contact with citizens in all re- In GERB, they were not indifferent to the evident gions of the country, not just during elections . As tensions between the President and the Prime examples he cited the regular receptions for cit- Minister, which have already been mentioned . izens who become MPs, mayors and municipal Tsvetan Tsvetanov has repeatedly attacked Pres- councilors from GERB .

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2 .2 .2 The Reformist Block tary elections are the only way to go on the path of reforms . In his words, all the reforms that had During this quarter, the Reformist Block has prac- begun on the insistence and with the efforts of the tically fallen apart . The two main parties in it, the Reformist Block in the previous government have UDF and the Bulgarian Democratic Union (BDG) been halted . According to Zelenogorski, there is no are likely to take different paths very soon . The effective democracy in the country, and the govern- upcoming European Parliamentary elections and ment is becoming increasingly national-populist . local elections next year are one reason for right- wing parties to seek new coalition formulas in an UDF leader Bozhidar Lukarski admitted that the attempt to regain their lost positions in the polit- processes of breaking up in the Reformist Block ical life of the country amidst the collapse in the are obvious and unstoppable . According to him, early parliamentary elections in 2017 . the UDF has not yet decided what alliance it will look for in the future and which parties it will part- At the beginning of March, the “Movement of Bul- ner . Lukarski said that the UDF has different opin- garia of the Citizens” (DBG) froze its membership ions on this matter . Some politicians in the party in the Reformist Block, and it will not participate believe that a partnership should be sought with in its governing bodies . The reasons for this deci- the BDG, “Yes, Bulgaria” and liberal formations, sion, in the words of the leadership, are the lack of while others share the view that the UDF should an opposition stance in the policies of the Block . build an alliance of conservative and patriotic for- The BDG has set several conditions, which, if they mations . The latter has further reinforced specu- are not fulfilled within a month, will lead to them lation about a possible coalition between UDF and leaving the Reformist Block for good . One of these NFSB of Valeri Simeonov . is the development of a reformist platform with an emphasis on bold and decisive actions to improve At the end of March, in the UDF there was dissat- the state of the sector of “security”, and measures isfaction with the leader of the party Lukarski, as to raise income, improve education and fight cor- a group around former party chairman Emil Ka- ruption effectively . The BDG insists on the imme- baivanov, now deputy chairman, were to demand diate resignation of Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, his resignation at a meeting of the UDF Nation- whose rule they define as “corrupt”. The party al Executive Council in mid-April . According to has declared itself in favor of early elections, the Kabaivanov, people in localities are not satisfied creation of an “anti-GERB coalition” and for “an- with the party’s isolation from the other right-wing ti-GERB communities” in localities to be the “ba- formations or with the lack of clarity about the fu- sis for an alternative to GERB’s behind-the-scenes ture of the UDF . Emil Kabaivanov said that he and governance” . The BDG believes that there is a need his colleague Rumen Hristov are in a negotiating for a strong democratic community in the country group that has to find a way round the party struc- that is ready to oppose the “creeping dictatorship tures and study the attitudes of the UDF members of GERB, transferred to the municipalities through about who their partners on the right should be . the model of feudal governance” . In the statement of the National Council of the party it is expressed that there have been attempts by some of the 2 .2 .3 DSB members of the Reform Party to legitimize and defend erroneous decisions of the government, At the end of March, the DSB held a meeting of the including by means of meetings between mem- Executive Council of the party in Plovdiv, where bers of the Reformist Block and representatives the political situation in the country and the coa- of the government, which contradict all principles lition policy of the party were discussed . The po- and decisions of the coalition . litical situation in the country has been assessed as unpredictable and dangerous because of many Naiden Zelenogorski of the BDG said that the res- of the government’s actions in recent months that ignation of the government and early parliamen- undermine democracy and citizens’ rights and

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freedoms . Constant scandals and tensions in 2 .3 Centrist parties various sectors, according to the DSB, lead to in- stability and risks for the country . The position of 2 .3 .1 MRF DSB is that with this behavior, the government is leading the country into a political crisis and early At the end of February, the MRF held sessions in the parliamentary elections . so-called Boyana Sarai, where the Honorable Pres- ident Ahmed Dogan lives . The political situation in The DSB accepted as a fundamental priority the the country in recent months, the tensions between building of a strong political union in the right-cen- the institutions and the ongoing presidency of Bul- ter space, with the main goal “of overthrowing garia of the Council of the EU were discussed . After Borisov’s authoritarian regime, restoring the par- the meeting, MRF leader Mustafa Karadayi said that liamentary republic, counteracting corruption and MRF understood the need for stability during the improving the well-being of Bulgarian citizens ”. The presidency, and in that sense they as a party were DSB Executive Council gave a mandate to the par- making their contribution to this stability . On the ty’s chairman Atanas Atanasov to establish a last- other hand, however, he said, in recent months, the ing political union between the DSB and “Yes, Bul- government has constantly been generating scan- garia”, which should be open to enlargement and dals and conflicts, including between institutions. to other democratic and oppositional formations . And this in itself does not work for stability . The reasons for this, according to Karadayi are the way in which this coalition was created - with the partici- 2 .2 .4 “Yes, Bulgaria” pation of nationalists and populists, which from the very beginning was a sign that there were scandals Hristo Ivanov, the leader of “Yes, Bulgaria”, stated and tensions . This is why it is important to regroup that the new right-wing grouping formed by the the coalition and for nationalists to leave it . five formations - Yes, Bulgaria, DSB, the Greens, DEOS (The Movement for European Unification In the beginning of March the MRF held a seminar and Solidarity) and BZNS (The Bulgarian Agrarian on the topic of “Open Government - a New Oppor- National Union) of the former Defense Minister tunity for Liberal Democracies . Attracting citizens Nikolay Nenchev should be formed as a clear al- into the decision-making process” . The purpose of ternative to the ruling party . According to Ivanov, it the seminar was to launch a broad public discus- should be opposed to cases and not just to words sion on the opportunities and challenges faced by in the eyes of voters, and this should be clear to all democracies today . The long-standing ALDE (Alli- the parties in the future coalition . Moreover, in the ance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe) chair- words of Hristo Ivanov, it is very important that the man, Graham Watson, was invited to take part in new entity should be clearly distinguished from the forum . MRF leader Mustafa Karadayi said that the Reformist Block . He added that it is working this seminar should also be viewed as part of the not only at the level of party leaders but also at the preparations of the MRF for running the country . expert level, giving as an example the launch of He also pointed out that the party is united and the “Bulgarian Manifesto” initiative for the estab- ready to take part in elections . lishment of a political program . An agreement is to be signed between the five parties to regulate In his opening speech at the forum, Mustafa Karadayi relations in the future coalition, and the possibility developed the thesis of the crisis of liberal democracy of talks with other political parties is not excluded . and political processes in the country and in Europe . In his words, democracy is in retreat and is experienc- ing clashes with populism and nationalism . Populists and nationalists find their way into the ruling parties of some countries, and Bulgaria is no exception . At the seminar, Graham Watson described the role of the MRF as a “stabilizing factor in political life in Bulgaria” .

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In mid-February, at a conference in Bursa, the most establishment of a “Pro-Russian government in influential organization of Bulgarian emigrants in the country”, composed of BSP and nationalists: Turkey, “Balgyoch”, called for the unification of the a government that would also benefit from the three parties MRF, DOST (Democrats for Responsi- support of the MRF, again dropping hints about bility, Freedom and Tolerance) and NPSD (National his long-standing thesis of the “pro-Russian line” Party for Freedom and Dignity) . In front of the par- in the MRF leadership . This is also the dividing line ticipants, honorary chairman of the Confederation between MRF and DOST, according to Mestan, of Balkan Rumelian Turks, Turhan Gencoglu, said which makes their unification impossible. he had held talks with the leaders of the Movement for Rights and Freedoms and DOST and that “sig- nificant steps were taken towards reconciliation”. In 2 .3 .3 “Volya” his words, it is about reaching a consensus among sympathizers on the most critical issue - the need Again during this quarter, “Volya” offers increasing for unification and the elimination of political con- support for GERB and the majority in important frontation . MRF and DOST did not comment on the votes in parliament . “Volya” did not support the topic . The position of the MRF has always been vote of no confidence in the government which that those who have left the party as sympathiz- was put to the vote in the National Assembly in ers and members can always come back to it . This late January, with MPs abstaining . According to position, however, excludes party reunification, and Veselin Mareshki, there is still no alternative to the it is not about the return of the prominent political government, and the vote of no confidence is a BSP figures, such as Lyutvi Mestan and Kasim Dal. gambit that will not contribute to the fight against corruption . In his words, removing the government would hurl the country into a political crisis . 2 .3 .2 DOST With the tensions between the three parties in The Party DOST and its leader, Lyutvi Mestan, the United Patriots, “Volya” may be a key factor in have been away from public attention in recent the balance of power in parliament . It was not by months . There was a dearth of media appear- chance that GERB MP Delyan Dobrev said that if ances that were particularly intense during the “Ataka” withdrew their support for the government, election campaign last year . All that was to be MPs from “Volya” would replace them . observed were episodic appearances and political statements by Lyutvi Mestan on events of Mareshki denied having negotiated with GERB the current agenda in the country . For example, to enter the government . According to Mareshki, on 21 February, the International Day of Moth- more and more parties regard “Volya” as a natu- er Tongue, declared by UNESCO in 1999, DOST ral partner, saying “it is consistent in its actions”, again declared themselves in favor of a change and this leads to greater trust from citizens . He in the legal framework for the study and use of pointed out that in this parliament the party will mother tongue in the country . The party insisted not enter the government, and that this could only that mother tongue be taught as compulsory at happen after the next elections . school, and they called for the abolition of the prohibition in the Electoral Code of conducting agitation in a language other than Bulgarian . 2 .4 Nationalist parties

Lyutvi Mestan took a position on the attacks of 2 .4 .1 United Patriots Russian Patriarch Kiril in Bulgaria . He described Kiril’s behavior as “arrogant and imperial” and as During this quarter, tensions between separate part of the Russian hybrid war in Bulgaria . Mes- parties in the United Patriots increased . There is a tan pointed out that the goal of Russia is to trig- growing divide between NFSB of Valeri Simeonov ger a governmental crisis, early elections and the and the leaders of the other two parties, Volen Sid-

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erov and Krassimir Karakachanov . The Istanbul For his part Valeri Simeonov said that he would Convention was the occasion for an exchange of not apologize for his words and that it is unac- rhetoric between Deputy Prime Ministers Karak- ceptable for a spiritual person to maintain an achanov and Simeonov regarding the idea of the admonishing tone in the Bulgarian presidency, VMRO leader organizing a referendum in which because Bulgarians pay tribute to all the warriors citizens should express their opinions on the topic killed for the freedom of Bulgaria regardless of of legalizing gay marriages in the country and on their faith or nationality . other issues related to the topic of “gender” . Valeri Simeonov described this idea as an attempt at PR Despite the harsh exchange of words, the tensions of VMRO and nothing more . In his words, there is that have arisen have been suppressed in the no sense in the proposal to hold a referendum on name of unity and participation in government . Sid- the subject, given that the categorical response of erov said that the refusal to apologize “remains a Bulgarian citizens will be clear . sin” to Valeri Simeonov, but one should not expect the breakup of the United Patriots to follow . In his Karakachanov said there was tension in the coa- words, there are many greater and more important lition, but it was caused by the lack of prior agree- goals that the patriots have set for government . ment of positions on certain issues . In his words, And they require stability and overcoming contro- the reasons are rooted in Valeri Simeonov’s ap- versies that arise . For his part Krassimir Karak- proach - instead of discussing with his partners achanov said that there would not be resignations . what he does not like or is concerned about, he In his words, “time heals everything” . Valeri Simeon- goes directly to the media and makes accusa- ov has shown that he is an emotional person with tions, and this only causes unnecessary tension spontaneous reactions, which does not in itself between parties in the coalition . necessarily mean that this is a bad thing .

The reproaches of the Russian Patriarch Kiril in his meeting with President Radev led to Valeri 2 .5 Positions of the foreign and European Simeonov’s acute reaction in one of the national political parties television channels . Simeonov called the Patri- arch “a second-rate cop of the KGB”, and a man BSP leader Kornelia Ninova commented on the “who has accumulated $14 billion in the sale of statement of Turkey’s leader Erdogan that the excise-free cigarettes, which is why he is better Bulgarian city of Kardzhali is within the spiritual known in Russia as ‘the cigarette metropolitan’ ”. borders of Turkey . In her words, the statement of At its meeting the Parliamentary Group of the Erdogan is another provocation to Bulgaria which United Patriots distanced itself from the words is absolutely unacceptable . Ninova insisted that of Valeri Simeonov and urged him to apologize . the Bulgarian Prime Minister make a firm stand The decision was taken with the votes of VMRO on this issue during the meeting in Varna, which and “Ataka” MPs, and the representatives of will be attended by President Erdogan . Ninova has NFSB left the meeting . Valeri Simeonov’s words asked Prime Minister Borisov to put to Erdogan provoked a harsh reaction by “Ataka” leader Vo- the question of the losses of the Thracian Bulgar- len Siderov, who for years has been known for ians expelled after the Balkan Wars and the First his pro-Russian positions . Siderov said it was World War . The government has repeatedly stat- unacceptable to insult a spiritual person and he ed that this will be a meeting between the EU and as an Orthodox Christian would insist on a pub- Turkey, not a bilateral meeting where questions re- lic apology from Valeri Simeonov . According to lated to Bulgarian-Turkish relations can be raised . him, Simeonov’s behavior was “equivalent to an Islamist and Jihadist act”, and that these were Kristian Vigenin of the Bulgarian Socialist Par- insults that “the greatest enemy of Christianity ty (BSP), who is chairman of the parliamentary did not allow himself to utter” . committee on European affairs, stated that there was every potential for this meeting in Varna to be

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successful . In his words, it is necessary to reduce would vote for the ruling party . BSP ranked sec- tensions and emotions and to reach pragmatic ond, 2 .5% behind GERB . Socialists would be sup- solutions . Vigenin also commented on the ongo- ported by 18 .2% of voters . MRF came in with 6 .4% ing tension in the country over the visit of Russian and the United Patriots with 5 .2% . The parties with Patriarch Kiril . In his words, the Russian side can- no chance of entering parliament if parliamentary not find the correct tone for Bulgaria. According to elections were held at the time of the survey were Vigenin, there must be careful analysis of whether “Volya” with 1 .5%, the Reformist block with 1 .2% . there is a targeted campaign against Bulgaria by Then 1 .5% of respondents would vote for “Yes, Russia, or it is a matter of separate events that Bulgaria”, and only 1% would vote for DSB (Demo- leave such an impression . In his words, some of crats for a Strong Bulgaria) . Russia’s moves do not appear to be well planned, as much as spontaneous reactions . 4 . Basic conclusions and forecasts Regarding the Skripal case in London, Vigenin said there was no hard evidence to date that Russia 1. The political situation in the first months of 2018 was behind the poisoning of the former spy and his was largely determined by the political tensions daughter, but rather it was a political campaign . surrounding the ratification of the Istanbul Con- vention and the CEZ deal . These two events shift- Chairman of the GERB parliamentary group ed the focus of public attention from the rotating Tsvetan Tsvetanov pointed out that Bulgaria has a presidency of Bulgaria of the EU Council . Those in clear stance on the poisoning of Skripal in the UK the ruling party GERB have made serious efforts and is in solidarity with the EU’s common position . to alleviate public tensions and to minimize the Regarding whether Bulgaria will expel Russian dip- possible loss of support, which they have not man- lomats, Tsvetanov said that this could only happen aged to fully succeed in doing . It was the withdraw- when the national security of the country is jeop- al of the Istanbul Convention from the agenda of ardized . According to him there is no such data at the National Assembly which alleviated passions . present, so there is no need to take such action . However, the issue with CEZ remains on the agenda . The government has failed to clarify the case, “Yes, Bulgaria” issued a political declaration con- and even with its incoherent and chaotic action, it demning Prime Minister Borisov’s position on has further reinforced the impression that there is the Skripal case . This states that the prime min- something wrong that is hidden from society . ister’s behavior shows “a clear sign of the rejec- tion of solidarity on the part of Bulgaria” . Such an Despite the scandals, the Presidency of the Coun- action undermines the trust of EU partners in the cil of the EU is, at this stage, going successfully . country . Regarding the visit of President Erdogan The government has focused its efforts on two to Varna, the local organization of “Yes, Bulgaria” main priorities: the integration of the Western Bal- organized a protest against the regime in Turkey kans and the normalization of EU-Turkey relations . and the violation of human rights in the country . 2 . The BSP tried to take advantage of the scandals and intensified its tone with regard to the 3 . Public opinion government . The case studies with the Istanbul Convention and CEZ were used by the Socialists Research by the Trend Research Center at the end for attacks on the government . This has shown of February shows that only 16% of Bulgarians that BSP has the resources and the opportunity to support the Istanbul Convention, 46% do not sup- impose the political agenda as an opposition . At port it, and 38% cannot judge it . the same time, however, the party risks heading in a populist direction if it uses every popular social Regarding electoral attitudes, GERB retains its issue to clash with the ruling party and misses the first position, since 20.7% of the respondents major problems of the country .

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3 . The smaller parties on the left at this stage can- 6 . The MRF is regrouping internally . After DOST split not find the right moves to increase their populari- from them, there is now a process of electoral con- ty . Recent sociological studies show this clearly . A solidation of the party . MRF still faces unresolved profound rethinking of their long-term participation challenges related to its image, particularly with strategies in politics is necessary, not only at ideo- regard to the impact of “oligarch” Delyan Peevski . logical but most of all at an organizational level . This makes the party at least on a formal level un- Steps are needed to undertake new and interesting attractive as a coalition partner, both to the left and initiatives which would attract sympathizers . to the right, although on important topics both GERB and BSP rely on the MRF to support their parliamen- 4 . GERB was engaged on two fronts - on the one tary initiatives . This quarter also saw a joint action hand suppressing conflicts with its coalition part- between GERB and MRF regarding the adopted Cor- ners and, on the other hand, responding to the at- porate Commercial Bank assets law and the con- tacks of the opposition, and mostly BSP . The ten- cluded cessions, on which the President vetoed the sion between the President and the government voices of both parties and the “United Patriots” . is growing ever more apparent, and this is likely to grow even further in the future, thus negatively 7 . “Volya” is increasingly losing electoral support . affecting the relations between the institutions . At The behavior of the parliamentary group is incon- this stage, the government coalition remains sta- sistent and conjunctural . On one hand, “Volya” de- ble, and is not expected to fall apart imminently . clares itself to be in opposition, on the other hand, in key votes, it helps the majority . This will prob- 5 . The smaller right-wing parties at this stage have ably continue to be the style of behavior of the low electoral support . The reasons for this are formation of Vessein Mareshki, which, however, political fragmentation, and complicated interper- undermines its authors among the citizens . sonal interactions of the past, which hinder normal dialogue . The Reformist Block is on the verge of 8 . The “united patriots” were at the center of po- falling apart for good and the two main parties in litical attention in the past quarter, mostly with it - the UDF and the DBG – embarking on different internal conflicts between individual leaders. De- paths . In the other right-liberal block around DSB spite the contradictions that we have witnessed, and “Yes, Bulgaria” there are processes of consol- the three parties remain united in the name of idation, and in the coming months they will take power, so at least at this stage the ruling coali- steps to unite with three other formations . tion retains its stability .

16 ANALYSIS

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GEORGI KARASIMEONOV (EDITOR) Year 18, Issue 1 – January-March 2018

The views expressed in this publication are not necessarily those of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung or of the organization for which the author works.