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Download File will be freely granted to educational or non-profit organizations. Othe rs will be requested to pay a small fee. Please contact: Division of Communication, UNICEF, Attn: Permissions, 3 United Nations Plaza, New York, NY 10017, USA, Tel: 1-212-326-7434; email: <[email protected]>. All images used in this report are intended for informational purposes only and must be used only in reference to this report and its content. All photos are used for illustrative purposes only. UNICEF photographs are copyrighted and may not be used for an individual’s or organization’s own promotional activities or in any commercial context. The content cannot be digitally altered to change meaning or context. All reproductions of non-brand content MUST be credited, as follows: Photographs: “© UNICEF /photographer’s last name”. Assets not credited are not authorized. Thank you for supporting UNICEF. February 2020 © 2020 UNICEF. All rights reserved. Produced by UNICEF Regional Office for South Asia (ROSA) Prepared by: The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU): Stefano Scuratti Regional Director, APAC, Public Policy; Michael Frank Senior Analyst, APAC, Public Policy; Sumana Rajarethnam Director, Partnerships, Asia; and Sabika Zehra, analyst Overall guidance: Jean Gough, Regional Director for South Asia & Inoussa Kabore Regional Chief of Programme & Planning Technical inputs: Abdul Alim, Regional Advisor Social Policy; Inoussa Kabore, Regional Chief of Programme & Planning; Reis Lopez Rello, Regional Advisor Climate Change; Harriet Torlesse, Regional Advisor Nutrition; Daniel Reijer, Statistic and Monitoring Specialist, ROSA Design and layout: Marta Rodríguez, Consultant Cover Photo: ©UNICEF Pakistan/Pirozzi/2016 Permission is required to reproduce any part of this publication: Permission will be freely granted to educational or non-profit organizations. Othe rs will be requested to pay a small fee. Please contact: Division of Communication, UNICEF, Attn: Permissions, 3 United Nations Plaza, New York, NY 10017, USA, Tel: 1-212-326-7434; email: <[email protected]>. All images used in this report are intended for informational purposes only and must be used only in reference to this report and its content. All photos are used for illustrative purposes only. UNICEF photographs are copyrighted and may not be used for an individual’s or organization’s own promotional activities or in any commercial context. The content cannot be digitally altered to change meaning or context. All reproductions of non-brand content MUST be credited, as follows: Photographs: “© UNICEF /photographer’s last name”. Assets not credited are not authorized. Thank you for supporting UNICEF. February 2020 © 2020 UNICEF. All rights reserved. MEGATRENDS IN SOUTH ASIA A report by The Economist Intelligence Unit for UNICEF ROSA 28 February 2020 Contents Foreword 7 Chapter 1: Impact of climate change 8 1.1 Overview 9 1.2 Rising instability in a disaster-prone South Asia region 9 1.3 Impact of climate change on South Asia and its children 16 1.4 Climate change in South Asian countries 19 1.5 Implications for UNICEF 33 Chapter 2: Food security 36 2.1 OvervieFood Segurityw 37 2.2 South Asia: a hungry and food-insecure region 38 2.3 Implications of food insecurity in South Asia 47 2.4 Country profiles 51 2.5 Implications for UNICEF 66 Chapter 3: Increase in air pollution 68 3.1 Overview 69 3.2 Toxic air smothering South Asia 70 3.3 Implications of air pollution in South Asia 73 3.4 Country Profiles 77 3.5 Implications for UNICEF 93 Chapter 4: Energy availability and consumption 94 4.1 Overview 95 4.2 Energy challenges 96 4.3 Energy impacts for children 100 4.4 Child-centric analysis of energy 102 4.5 Implications for UNICEF 121 Chapter 5: Accelerating urbanization 123 5.1 Overview 124 5.2 Disorderly and hidden urbanization 125 5.3 Implications of urbanization 129 5.4 Country profiles 133 5.5 Implications for UNICEF 149 Chapter 6: Mobility, migration and labour 150 6.1 Overview 151 6.2 Mobility, migration and labour in South Asia: 153 scope and implications 6.3 Country profiles 161 6.4 Implications for UNICEF 177 Chapter 7: Property ownership and legal frameworks 178 7.1 Overview 179 7.2 Current situation of property ownership and legal 179 frameworks in South Asia 7.3 Implications of property ownership and legal 186 frameworks for children 7.4 Property ownership and land tenure legal frameworks 189 in South Asian countries 7.5 Implications for UNICEF 204 Chapter 8: Demographic dividend and long-term youth unemployment 206 8.1 Overview 207 8.2 Demographic dividend and unemployment 208 in South Asia: scope and implications 8.3 Implications of the demographic dividend (or tax) 213 and long-term youth unemployment on children and youth in South Asia 8.4 Country Profiles 216 8.5 Implications for UNICEF 233 Chapter 9: Rising wealth inequality and growing discontent 234 9.1 Overview 235 9.2 Rising wealth inequality and growing discontent 237 in South Asia 9.3 Implications of rising wealth inequality on children 244 in South Asia 9.4 Rising inequality in South Asian countries 248 9.5 Implications for UNICEF 266 Chapter 10: Digital inclusion 272 10.1 Overview 273 10.2 Digital inclusion in South Asia: Definition, scope and 274 implications 10.3 Country Profiles 285 10.4 Implications for UNICEF 306 Chapter 11: Growth of private sector 308 11.1 Overview 309 11.2 Private sector growth in South Asia: Definition, 310 scope and implications 11.3 Country Profiles 320 11.4 Implications for UNICEF 338 Chapter 12: Increasing access to online education 340 12.1 Overview 341 12.2 The state of online education 342 12.3 Implications of online education 348 12.4 Country Profiles 354 12.5 Implications for UNICEF 371 Foreword As an evidence-based organisation, UNICEF programmes must be developed on the basis of sound analysis of the political, socio-economic and demographic environment. Studying, understanding and forecasting the key trends affecting progress on the rights and wellbeing of children in the South Asia region is an utmost priority for UNICEF’s Regional Office in South Asia (ROSA). This is increasingly important in the context of the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Generating evidence and child-centred analysis, as well as making it available to our country office, to governments and other stakeholders, enables us to more effectively and efficiently fulfil our mandate in the region. Thus, ROSA, in close consultation with the management team across our eight county offices in the region, has identified 12 trends that are shaping children’s and young people lives and well-being in South Asia, and to be analysed and foresighted. These are: (i) impact of climate change; (ii) food security; (iii) increasing air pollution; (iv) energy availability and consumption; (v) accelerating urbanization; (vi) mobility, migration and labour; (vii) property ownership and legal frameworks impacting livelihood; (viii) demographic dividend and long-term employment; (ix) rising wealth inequality; (x) digital inclusion; (xi) growth of private sector; and (xii) increasing access to online education. If not carefully analysed and addressed, these trends are likely to have a significant and long-lasting negative impact on the lives and well-being of children in the region, and its eight countries. These reports anticipate and explain the 12 trends identified and strengthen UNICEF’s understanding of the changing political, socio-economic and demographic environment in the South Asia region and in its eight countries. They further provide critical insights into the future trajectories of these trends (2020-2030, subject to the data available). Country and regional-level assessments have been generated addressing the following questions: What are the social, economic and environmental impacts of the trend? How many people, or what proportion of the population sample, will be impacted? How many children will be impacted? What is the expected gender-disaggregated impact? What is the expected rural/urban split? What risks and opportunities do these trends pose to children and the youth population in the region? How will these trends challenge and change the way UNICEF operates in the region? What are the implications for UNICEF’s partnerships and funding? The analysis presented in these reports is based on UNICEF’s headline results for children in South Asia and also leverages the Economist Intelligence Unit regular analysis and reporting at country and regional level. The findings will inform UNICEF’s advocacy and policy dialogue and support our evidence-based and risk-informed programming at country and regional-level. My hope is that this analysis will also be used by our partners in each of the countries in the region to generate long-lasting positive impacts for children and young people as well as to accelerate action to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Jean Gough Regional Director UNICEF Regional Office South Asia 01 Impact of climate change UNICEF ROSA/Nybo/2014 © 01: Impact of climante change 9 1.1 Overview at risk of abuse. 4 Climate change not only Glossary exposes children in South Asia to direct risks This chapter examines the current (e.g., flooding and storm surges) but also Climate change: A change manifestations and future projections of exacerbates all other risk factors, such as of climate that is attributed climate change in South Asia, with particular health and mortality, food and water security, directly or indirectly to reference to how it is affecting children and displacement, crime and conflict, and human activity that alters their outlook. Climate change, comprising access to education and energy. According the composition of the global rising and shifting temperatures and to a recent study by the World Bank, the atmosphere, in addition to changing precipitation patterns, and all their combination of socioeconomic vulnerabilities natural climate variability impacts, from rising sea levels and melting and geographic challenges makes South Asia observed over comparable glaciers to storms, floods and droughts, has one of the world’s most exposed regions to time periods (UNFCCC).6 severe implications across the region for negative impacts of climate change.
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