Integrated Life-Cycle Cost & Risk Optimization
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The American University in Cairo School of Science and Engineering INTEGRATED LIFE-CYCLE COST & RISK OPTIMIZATION FRAMEWORK FOR COASTAL PROTECTION STRUCTURES A Thesis Submitted To Department of Construction and Architectural Engineering In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Construction Management By Ayman Hassan Abdel-Wahab El Hakea Under the Supervision of Dr. Ossama Hosny Dr. Hesham Osman Dr. Moheb Iskander Professor, the Construction and Associate Professor, Department of Associate Professor and Head of the Architectural Engineering Structural Engineering, Hydrodynamics Department, Department, Cairo University, Egypt Coastal Research Institute, The American University in Alexandria, Egypt Cairo, Egypt February 2015 DEDICATIONS This work is dedicated to the people of Alexandria, my hometown, and the place that will always reserve the most special place in my heart. This work is intended to be nothing but a step towards attaining a better future for this unique city and its people. This work is equally the least dedication I can offer to my beloved daughter and son, Alya and Moez, Allah’s most gracious gift to me, who have been always in the center of my mind and thoughts while doing this work. I dedicate this work to my mother Dr. Emtiaz Hassoona, who provided an invaluable support to me during my course of masters studies whether emotionally or physically, and to my Father Admiral Engineer Hassan El Hakeh, the former Chief Engineer of the Egyptian Naval Forces, for his immense support to me whether by technical guidance or by providing contacts, which made data acquisition doors wide open. I offer this research to my sister researcher and Engineer Amira El Hakeh, for her crucial persuasion of me to embrace the academic career; and equally to my grandfather Mr. Counselor Khalid Hassoona, my grandmother Mrs. Fatima El Hakeh, my aunt Mrs. Layla Hassoona and her husband Mr. Engineer Mahmoud Hegazy, for the generous support they all gave me during my sojourn in Cairo over the course of my study. I also dedicate this work to the soul of my great grandfather Aly Bek El Hakeh, the former Chief of Education of Al-Dakahliya Province, and the prominent education pioneer; and also to the soul of Prof. Dr. Mahmoud Fayez Zaki, Professor of Coastal Engineering and Harbor Design at Alexandria University; the dear family friend who introduced me to the world of coastal engineering and management. I ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS My sincere acknowledgement to Prof. Dr. Ossama Hosny, of the Construction and Architectural Engineering Department at the AUC, not only for his generous physical and psychological support throughout my thesis work, but also for his invaluable encouragement to myself to get involved in Academic research, writing, and publishing. I equally thank Prof. Dr. Hesham Osman of the Civil Engineering Department, Cairo University; for his patience, diligence, and attention to detail which he expressed in reviewing my thesis work, and in providing extremely thorough guidance as to infrastructure asset management methods and tools. My deep appreciation to Prof. Dr. Moheb Mina Iskander, Head of the Hydrodynamics Department at CoRI, Alexandria, not only for his generous provision of historical design, environmental, and cost data regarding the study area, but also for his continuous follow-up and support during the write-up and the review of the thesis. Special thanks to my fellow colleague Engineer Soliman Amr Abu-Samra of the Construction and Architectural Engineering Department at the AUC, for the joint work we published together in the field of deterioration and optimization with regard to coastal infrastructure. Such works laid the base towards establishing and enhancing the modeling tools utilized in this research. Special acknowledgement to Prof. Dr. Alfy Morcos Fanous, former Chairman of CoRI; Prof. Dr. Mohamed El-Raey, Higher Research Institute (HRI), Alexandria; Mr. Engineer Walid Khalil, Syndicate of Egyptians Engineers and former Technical Manager at Dr. Mahmoud Fayez Zaki (FZ) Consulting Co., Alexandria; Mr. Engineer Mohamed El Dakkak, the Head of the Engineering Division at the Port of Alexandria Authority, PhD Candidate at the Arab Academy for Science and Technology, Alexandria, Egypt; Mr. Engineer Medhat Khalifa and Mr. Engineer Yasser Samak of the Arab Contractors Co., Alexandria Branch; Mr. Engineer Abdessalam El-Fiky, Chairman of the Abdessalam El-Fiky Construction Co. (AF Co.); Mr. Engineer Mohamed Said Farahat, Head of Execution Department, Suez Canal Co. for Port Works and Mega Projects, Alexandria Area; and Mr. Engineer Ahmed Neamatallah of the Engineering Department of Talaat Mostafa Holding Group. All of you have significantly contributed towards this research by either provision of design data for structures within the scope of the study, or by providing expert opinion whenever the research required, and by also verifying and validating the findings of this research. II Data acquisition was not an easy task. The first part was to collect the data pertaining to the design attributes, construction and repair history, bathymetry, and wave data for all structures within the study area. Data regarding the cost of construction and repair were also collected by the author. The author first approached the CoRI Hydrodynamics Department. The guidance received from CoRI was invaluable in terms of the environmental data. In the zone extending between Al- Saraya Beach and Al-Mandara, an old bathymetric map produced by CoRI was utilized although dating back to year 2002 (i.e. before the launch of the Cornice widening works), given that the study area did not witness any works that affected its seabed bathymetry. Furthermore, CoRI provided the author with copies of two editions of the Shore Protection Master Plan of the Northern Nile Delta Coast, developed by Tetra Tech Inc. in 1985 and 1986. Tetra Tech (1985:1986) included all design attributes of the Eastern Harbor breakwaters, as well as their condition, cost of repair, maintenance, and replacement. It also included a study on the old Eastern Harbor seawall attributes, condition, repair, maintenance and replacement policies as well as their associated costs. CoRI also provided essential guidance as to the wave data of the study area, and suggested the cited literature in this research. Among the approached marine works contractors in Alexandria was Abdessalam El-Fiky (AF Co.). AF Co. provided the author with a photographic progress report they produced, documenting their Qaytbey Fort marine protection works in 1994. The report includes valuable information of the problems that culminated into the need for marine protection works for the historic fort, the obstacles faced, and the works that were accomplished for the new revetment and seawall. The report also report displays design plans, cross-sections of the Qaytbey Fort marine protection works, bills of quantities, and bathymetry of the area immediately facing the fort. Other design information for the Police Club breakwaters and Al-Kihrban Bay were obtained from data provided by their designer, Professor Dr. Mahmoud Fayez Zaki Consulting Office (FZ Co.). As for San Stefano area, specifications, design and as-built drawings for the breakwaters, piers, and groins; were acquired from Egyco, the project's main contractor. Egyco's documents also include a bathymetric survey post the constrcuction of the San Stefano breakwaters and piers. Arab Contractors Co. were kind enough to provide a copy of a report produced by his company in 2007. The report includes extensive data on a variety of III projects executed by Arab Contractors in Alexandria between 2000 and 2007. Such works include the Pharos Promenade widening project, the Cornice Widening works in Al-Chatby, Cleopatra, Camp Cesare, Al-Ibrahimiya, Sporting, Sidi Gaber, Stanley, and Sidi Bishr. The report, written in Arabic, inlcudes also detailed information on breakwaters, revetments, and groins constructed by Arab Contractors Co. in the Mustapha Kamel Armed Forces Club, Teachers Club, Professional Clubs area, Glim Bay, Bir Masoud, Miami, and Al-Mandara. The report contains typical cross-sections and includes data regarding durations of execution, equipment used, and total costs of the works. Other historical data on Alexandria including Admiralty Maps and marine works in Alexandria prior to the Cornice Widening works were acquired from the design office TELCONSULT Co. In light of the data availability, the final study area was decided to comprise the region between the Pharos peninsula and the western boundary of Al-Montaza headland. This is the area where all sorts of data were acquired by the author between December 2012 and July 2013. IV The American University in Cairo Construction and Architectural Engineering Department INTEGRATED LIFE-CYCLE COST & RISK OPTIMIZATION FRAMEWORK FOR COASTAL PROTECTION STRUCTURES By: Ayman Hassan Abdel-Wahab El Hakea Thesis Advisors: Dr. Ossama Hosny Dr. Hesham Osman Dr. Moheb Iskander ABSTRACT While extensive research has been carried out on the management of various types of infrastructure assets, limited research has been carried out for coastal structures. The rapid growth of the world population living in low-lying areas within close range to the shoreline over the past century compounded by the impact of global climate change on shoreline hydrodynamics; have increased the importance of coastal infrastructure management. Climate change has recently increased storm intensities in addition