Yukon Herald – October 11, 2032

Appendix 1. Scenario narratives.

Scenario Story Line – S1 – “Doom and Gloom” High Cumulative Impacts, Unpredictable Change, Exploitative

Yukoners Work/Play Hard as Landscape Changes Around Them

“What happened to hunting to with and people moving here from fill your freezer?” is a commonly uttered southern provinces may not have grown question lately. In Supergrocery’s up with hunting as a way to put food on weekly sale pamphlet, chicken breast the table.” was listed at $3.38/lb., the same price as Though even for First Nations in Toronto. it’s not all roses. Felix Jackson says, Because of cheap groceries, the “There aren’t enough caribou and moose surge of wage jobs, and changes to anymore to hunt those animals alone and species composition and abundance out we don’t have subsistence rights to bison on the land, people hunt less frequently and elk. If you want tags you have to pay. and mostly recreationally. To pay you need a job. If you have a job For those who continue to hunt, you can only hunt on time off so you hunting has become a different ball need a truck and a snowmobile to hunt game. During the past seven years, due faster. Since you have the truck and to the “conservation concerns” snowmobile you need the job. It is a provisions of the Umbrella Final cycle. Once you start you are stuck. Agreement, First Nation members have Those subsistence ways are old ways.” had hunting priority for caribou, sheep, Because of reduced hunting and moose. This has meant that non- pressure wildlife management and First Nation hunters have had to try their economic development on the landscape luck exclusively with elk, bison, or deer. are the main things contesting growing “Growing up we ate moose meat,” numbers of elk, wood bison and deer. says 32 year-old and avid hunter Simon “These species are taking over Caliber while looking up from a freezer the ranges of caribou, moose and sheep. full of venison. “There hasn’t even been Simply put, they are better able to adapt a lottery for a caribou tag in several to the current circumstances.” By current years. It’s still meat but it’s just not the circumstances, Kluane Region Wildlife same.” Biologist Leanne Rogers refers mostly to According to Whitehorse District the human exploitative pressures that Conservation Officer Jim Walker, even have changed wildlife habitat, but the though elk and wood bison populations landscape has changed in ways beyond have grown, the decline in hunting is not human control as well. surprising. “Hunting takes time. A lot more time than walking down a grocery “The part that blows my mind is the aisle.” He continues to say, “I think a lot variability. The weather can’t make of it has to do with what people grew up up its mind.”

adjusting to the variability. “Just last As far as averages go, there is a February both the Aishihik Caribou trend towards warmer, wetter weather Herd and the Aishihik Wood Bison Herd and increasing average temperature is had animals fall through thin ice. There the alleged culprit for much of the weren’t enough cold days in a row for changes. “Subtle changes to temperature ice to thicken enough to support their can cause a host of environmental weight.” responses. Everything is so closely Rogers claims that the estimated linked,” says Karen Chang of 25 caribou that fell into the Nisling Environment Yukon. River was a significant blow to the The story of climate in the SW population, but the over 100 bison that Yukon can hardly be told by averages. In fell into Kloo Lake was barely a dent in 2014 the Intergovernmental Panel on the population. Climate Change flagged the western Arctic rim of North America as the “As the southwest Yukon warms the “miner's canary.” The southwest Yukon spruce bark beetle becomes more and in particular has shown the rest of the more of a problem.” world that climate change means extreme, unpredictable events. Forester Jane Timber says that “The part that blows my mind is the severe weather and high levels of the variability,” says Carmacks resident industrial activity in the southwest Keith Steady. “One year there is record Yukon has made white spruce stands setting snowfall and the next year there more susceptible to pests such as the is a record low. There is rain one spruce bark beetle. summer, then drought. The weather According to Environment can’t make up its mind.” Yukon’s Karen Chang the warmer The great swings in temperature climate has helped some new pest from year to year have huge affects on insects move further north into the snowpack, permafrost, and ice. Flooding Yukon, such as the mountain pine beetle. has become the major concern across the More importantly, though, the time southwest Yukon. required for beetles to reach adulthood is Homeowner Dan Lenza says, shorter and more beetles are surviving “Water levels on my land change year- the winter. to-year it seems,” an observation that is A weakened host and not an exaggeration. New ponds and strengthened pest has been the recipe for wetlands appear suddenly as permafrost increased beetle outbreaks and large thaws, snowpack melts earlier and the swaths of beetle-killed forest throughout pace of glacial melt quickens. the SW Yukon. “Our river basins in the Yukon Kluane Region Wildlife are experiencing higher volumes of Biologist Leanne Rogers says, “As the water than ever before and it’s changing southwest Yukon warms the spruce bark everything,” says Kathy Streams from beetle becomes more and more of a the Department of Water Resources. problem. Beetle-killed spruce forest is Kluane Region Wildlife mostly dead habitat for several years Biologist Leanne Rogers says that until the wind breaks off enough of the wildlife is also having a hard time light blocking branchlets of the spruce

trees. Outbreaks have had tremendous Climate Change Action Plan (2009) fell impact on white spruce stands which short to spur the government into real provide good habitat for caribou and action. moose.” A main focus of the When a forest stand becomes the government’s agenda has been economic site of a beetle outbreak it is privately growth, largely through an increase of logged and sold as woodstove fuel. But natural resource extraction and this is not always the case. Several times exportation, as well as providing the in the past few years lightning has struck energy to power the growing economy. before contracts can be negotiated. “We know the climate is “We have always had forest fires, changing and that these changes but not with this frequency and with this manifest dramatically on the landscape. intensity,” says wildland firefighter Jeff But we will not allow it to affect the way Spark. With the thousands of hectares of companies in the Yukon do business,” beetle-killed forest, there is plenty of says Party spokesperson Brad Staunch. fuel once the lightning strikes. And And it hasn’t. The economy strike it does. Despite the SW Yukon continues to boom without concern for a being in St. Elias’s rain shadow, summer future that grows less certain and thunderstorms are 20% more likely than predictable. They invest and expect they were at the turn of the century, reward. meaning more opportunity for lightning. President and CEO of Rocky The Yukon Forest Management Mining, Ltd., Arthur Gold says, “It Branch reports that fires used to happen doesn’t matter if trees turn to shrubs or about once every hundred years in a shrubs turn to trees. Gold will still be given area. That cycle however is now a gold.” historical note. Some of the biggest changes in “From what we have seen in the the southwest Yukon in the past 20 years past 20 years, fires seem to be occurring have come from the industrial sector, at shorter, more irregular intervals. For particularly mining. More and more the landscape, this means that spruce mining claims are changing from trees may not have sufficient time exploration to production, and local between fires to repopulate areas. mineral claims have been increasingly Deciduous vegetation like willow and leased to out-of-territory or out-of- aspen are beginning to dominate the SW country companies. Yukon,” says Forester Jane Timber, Ten years ago today Rocky citing the Takhini burn as the most Mining, Ltd., an Alberta based company, mature example of the new trend. constructed the Killermun mine and began mining quartz claims west of “It doesn’t matter if trees turn to Killermun Lake within the Ruby Range. shrubs or shrubs turn to trees. Gold Residents of Haines Junction have will still be gold.” watched their small town and life, as they knew it, transform over the years. The Yukon’s response to a Helicopter blades chop the air as changing climate can be characterized as miners are trafficked to and from Haines slow at best. Commitments set forth by Junction 5-6 times daily. Quiet summer the Climate Change Strategy (2006) and sunsets are a thing of the past.

During time off, miners staying “People have said for years that in Haines Junction are often spotted moose, caribou, and especially sheep are racing speedboats on Pine Lake, beer sensitive species. Research was just coolers full and music blaring. For the never clear about how sensitive. Well, past nine summers, elders have not cast now we know,” says Alice Munroe, fishnets in the lake. Kluane Region Wildlife Technician. The fatal bear attack last year on Mining developments, though a miner at the Killermun Mine campsite invasive, seem to not have affected elk drove Rocky Mining, Ltd. to institute a and bison in the same way. Miners “clean camp” policy to reduce the report seeing large herds walking new likelihood of bear attacks. Reports by mining roads to travel between habitat trappers of beer cans left along ATV patches. trails tell the story of the policy’s Kluane Lake Outfitters have had effectiveness. The company’s workers to relocate hunting camps on account of who, like the company, come from the noise and deteriorated wildlife Alberta seem to lack the same spirit and habitat, which has made it harder to find respect for the natural world that defines wildlife. The same outfitters report a a true Yukoner. drop in client satisfaction for guided As forewarned by the Yukon trips in the area. Conservation Society within the YESAB Chris Masterson of Kluane Lake files, the Killermun Mine has adversely Outfitters explains that, “several of his affected wildlife populations. Stripping clients mentioned crisscrossing ATV to uncover quartz veins destroyed trails making the landscape look less natural licks used by sheep and reduced wild.” The wild, remote feeling of the the fragile plants and grasses. Over landscape is a feature that has been a 100km of ATV trails were built, selling point of outfitting in the Yukon resulting in fragmented habitat and for generations but, as Masterson says, is increased access into the previously disappearing. remote alpine region. Similarly, trappers with long “With all of the commotion from traditional family ties to the area have the mine, Dall sheep spent huge amounts reported significant drops in success of energy being constantly alert. Many along traplines. Champagne and of them got weak and became easy Aishihik First Nation member Mary targets for wolves,” says Conservation Agnes also adds, “I would love to run Officer Jim Walker. my family’s trapline and forget about Consequently, Dall sheep no working a job in the city, but how can I longer use the area for spring lambing, a with the price of furs being so low?” fact that Yukon Conservation Society believes to be affecting as many as 300 “Coal just makes sense given the pace ewes. of new energy demands.” Additionally, the Aishihik caribou herd, which had been recovering With the rapidly growing in the area as a result of significant demands on the energy supply, Yukon management efforts, has not been seen Energy made the quick decision to there for several years. embrace coal as a means to rapidly

increase the amount of energy available Much of the population growth to both industry and new residents. can be attributed to a series of industrial “Coal just makes sense given the booms, the most recent of which has led pace of new energy demands, ”explained to yet another influx of out-of-territory Harvey Dam, Communications workers, many of whom are miners from Supervisor for Yukon Energy back in Alberta the Yukon Bureau of Statistics 2017. When asked why Division shows. Mountain, Dam replied, “The proximity More and more people born in of the Division Mountain coal deposit to the Yukon before the booms are the existing electricity grid and its claiming to be “true” Yukoners and feel economic feasibility made it an efficient like a minority. Native Yukoner Clay choice for Yukon Energy.” Johnson says, “Seems like ain’t too Between 2017 and 2027 Hard many people left who were born here. Minerals, Ltd. extracted 2.6 million The new people sure think different too. metric tones per year (Mtpy) of coal Like everything can and should be from an open-pit mine on its Division blown up.” Mountain properties. Two million Mtpy All the new folks to the territory was washed and shipped to Pacific Rim need housing and developers have markets, supplying China with 1.24 scrambled to meet the challenge. million Mtpy of thermal-grade coal. Property rates have soared in response. Yukon Energy continues to buy coal The pressure for housing within from Hard Minerals, Ltd. to supply the commute distance of Whitehorse has local power station (expanded from 50- transformed the drive along the Alaska megawatts to 100-megawatts in 2024) Highway between Whitehorse and that is adjacent to the Division Mountain Haines Junction. property. Most notably over the stretch, the Though sustainability initiatives Department of Highways and Public took the back seat clean, reliable and Works widened the highway to four affordable coal has helped to triple the lanes in 2018 to eliminate the dangers of territory’s 2012 energy production from commuters passing trucks. A wider road, approximately 400-gigawatts of hydro- though, means even higher maintenance generated power to today’s almost 1250- costs due to permafrost thawing. Annual gigawatts of mixed hydro and coal- repairs are costing upwards of generated power. $30,000/km of road. There are also far more turnoffs The land-based economy of old dried than there used to be. Recently logged up as prices and demand for land- and in many cases agricultural land based goods plummeted. bordering the Alaska Highway have been converted into high-density No one is arguing whether or not subdivisions. The Bratnober and Vanier the territory needs more power. The last Subdivisions are examples of new 20 years has seen population growth of housing within the past 5 years. All 500 an average of 7% per year, resulting in a lots of the Vanier Subdivision sold the population of 132,000 for the territory. first day on the market. The 7% growth rate over the 20-year Space was made for the Vanier span is the highest in Canada. Subdivision when Tom Schneider sold

his farm. “That’s the way of it,” adding, “Everything is right here in Schneider says. “You can only stare Whitehorse!” down that kind of an offer for so long.” In an effort to fill labor shortages Jill Farmer, a friend of in service positions Yukon Immigration Schneider’s, was surprised he was able has increased the number of applications to hold out selling as long as he did. through the Yukon Nominee Program. “Smart though. 60km from Whitehorse According to the Yukon Bureau of and in this market, he made a killing.” It Statistics, during the 2026-2031 census seems only the wealthiest Yukoners period the Yukon welcomed 1,149 new have been able to keep the homestead immigrants, mostly from Asian countries. dream alive and ignore the sometimes The land-based economy of old multimillion dollar offers from real dried up as prices and demand for land- estate developers. based goods plummeted. Cabins rot as Many smaller towns and trappers continue to stay out of the bush. communities with long histories are also “I think the only ones of us still out here feeding into Whitehorse’s growth. are the ones who are too old to know “There used to be 800 people living here. another way to live,” says 65-yr-old 800!” exclaimed long-time Haines Garret “Snare” Hill. Junction resident Betty Fisk. The Haines Traps unset, berries unpicked and Junction population, which for now sits medicines uncollected. Old activities at 3,200, is just close enough for people like these that once gave the Yukon a to make the daily commute to “last frontier” feel have disappeared, Whitehorse. Not to mention its closeness leaving those with the land at heart to Kluane region mining interests. asking, “Do we have another Yukon to The population explosion has move to?” also coincided with increases in service and sales-related jobs to support a larger This mock-article is part of a study to population. The Whitehorse Mall opened develop wildlife management based on in 2017 with the slogan of “Tired of future scenarios in the southwest Yukon. shopping online?” Cynthia Shopper says, All names of people and companies “It’s great! I don’t need to fly to within are intended to be fictional. Vancouver to shop at the big stores,”

Scenario Story Line – S2 – “Slow Boil” High Cumulative Impacts, Gradual Change, Exploitative

Yukon Herald – October 11, 2032

Hindsight is 20/20 as Management Fails to React

According to hunter Simon Though she tried to remain polite, Caliber it is a frustrating time to be a Chang made it clear that if Environment hunter. “I haven’t been able to hunt a Yukon’s budget was even half as large caribou or a sheep for several years and as Energy, Mines, and Resources this now there is a lottery on elk. What’s problem would not exist. next?!” Hunting has become a different “We didn’t realize [wood bison, elk ball game. During the past seven years, and deer] populations were so low due to the “conservation concerns” until the most recent surveys.” provisions of the Umbrella Final Agreement, First Nation members have Explaining how the southwest had hunting priority for caribou, sheep Yukon got in this situation can be boiled and moose in the southwest Yukon. This down to a couple of factors. has meant that non-First Nation hunters Wood bison, elk and deer have had to try their luck exclusively populations seem to be low as a result of with wood bison, elk or deer tags. intense hunting, predation, and That is, until last year. management without adequate “We got ourselves into a terrible monitoring. position by not reacting fast enough,” Champagne and Aishihik First says Karen Chang of Environment Nations Renewable Resource Manager Yukon. Felix Jackson explains that, “wood bison, “Since the populations of wood elk and deer populations were kept low bison, elk and deer have remained small and contained in order to help the native there was no choice but to restrict ungulate species, like caribou.” hunting to a permit by lottery system,” Kluane Region Wildlife says Buck Shot of the Hunting & Biologist Leanne Rogers adds that, “We Trapping Branch. have spent our limited resources This year, in addition to a limited monitoring caribou, moose, sheep and hunting season, Environment Yukon in predators while surveys of bison, elk and conjunction with Champagne and deer populations over the past 10 years Aishihik First Nations will be initiating a have been spotty. We didn’t realize that chemical sterilization program for they were so low until the most recent wolves. surveys.” “It may be too late to really help Area wildlife managers suspect the caribou, moose and sheep in the area that since hunting allocations were but we hope that reducing the growth directed solely at wood bison, elk and rate of wolves will spur the growth rate deer, their numbers failed to pass of bison, elk and deer,” says Chang.

thresholds where they could continue to the willow that moose prefer has been grow despite supporting a large harvest. flooded.” Wolf predation on bison and elk Forester Jane Timber tells of how was low to nonexistent for roughly forest succession after fires and pest twenty years after introduction, but once outbreaks has changed in the southwest wolves caught on to the new prey source Yukon. “Spruce species are not returning predation increased rapidly. like they used to. Just look at the Takhini The increasing predation from burn area. It is mainly aspen with a lot of wolves, combined with intense hunting open space and bison, elk and deer are pressure and confining management much better suited for that type of policies has left the wood bison, elk, and landscape.” deer in their current states. Understanding how the landscape is changing allows managers “Subtle changes to one thing can to tailor management to the prevailing cause a host of environmental conditions. The problem is that without responses.” the science from proper monitoring, management recommendations seem Caribou, moose, and sheep unfounded. populations on the other hand seem to be low more so due to environmental and Increased access into the previously developmental changes on the landscape. remote alpine region. Environment Yukon’s Chang says, “We can see the general year-to- But the larger impact over the year environmental changes. Over the past 20 years on caribou, moose and past 20 years the tundra has slowly sheep populations in the southwest receded while the treeline has advanced Yukon has been from development, up mountainsides, particularly on particularly from the mining industry. southern slopes. Earlier snow melting, More and more mining claims more rapid glacial melt, and permafrost are changing from exploration to thaw have all contributed to river levels production, and many local mineral rising. ” claims have been leased to out-of- These changes, along with territory or out-of-country companies. temperature increasing slightly, more Ten years ago today Rocky snow during winters and less rain during Mining, Ltd., an Alberta based company, summers, represent the southwest Yukon constructed the Killermun mine and trends. began mining quartz claims west of “The thing is that subtle changes Killermun Lake within the Ruby Range. to one thing, like temperature, can cause As forewarned by the Yukon a host of environmental responses. Conservation Society within the YESAB Everything is so closely linked,” files, the Killermun Mine has adversely explains Chang. “For example, the affected wildlife populations. recent dryness of our summers has Consequently, Dall sheep no longer use decreased the quality of mosses and the area for spring lambing, a fact that lichens, forage that caribou prefer. Yukon Conservation Society believes to Higher water levels mean that a lot of be affecting as many as 300 ewes. Additionally, the Aishihik caribou herd,

which had been recovering in the area as managed by Parks Canada, has a result of significant past management historically kept its borders closed to efforts, has not been seen there for animals with lethal force. several years. “We worry about the bison in Examples of mining impacts are particular. We still don’t know enough stripping to uncover quartz veins, which about competition between bison and the destroyed natural licks used by sheep native species to let them into the park,” and reduced fragile plant and grass cover. explains Gary Park of Parks Canada. Over 100km of ATV trails and roads With the management focus were built, resulting in fragmented having been on containing the newer habitat and increased access into the species to specific areas and population previously remote alpine region. sizes, little new research has been done “With all of the commotion from about impacts—a fact that continues to the mine, Dall sheep spent huge amounts put many First Nations on the fence of energy being constantly alert. Many about letting the ranges expand into their of them got weak and became easy territories. targets for wolves,” says Conservation Officer Jim Walker. People with different values are Kluane Region Wildlife moving north to fill the vacant jobs. Technician Alice Munroe reveals that, “People have said for years that moose, The most serious impact on caribou, and especially sheep are southwest Yukon society has been a sensitive species. Research was just result of the expansion of mining never clear about how sensitive. Well, projects and the influx of miners. now we know.” Even though the province created job training programs to encourage Mining developments seem to not mining companies to hire local have affected elk and bison in the Yukoners, there are more available jobs same way. at new mine sites than can be filled by Yukoners alone. This has meant that Mining developments, though people with different values are moving invasive, seem to not have affected elk north to fill the vacant jobs. and bison in the same way. Miners Looking at the impacts of the report seeing herds travel between Killermun Mine on Haines Junction habitat patches on new mining roads. specifically, residents have watched their “Simply put, wood bison, elk, small town and life, as they knew it, and deer are better able to adapt to the transform over the years. The town has current circumstances,” says Rogers. “At more than doubled in population from least in the southwest Yukon we need to the 800 it was 20 years ago. shift our management focus to these Helicopter blades chop the air as species and talk about range expansion,” miners are trafficked to and from Haines says Rogers. Junction 5-6 times daily. Quiet summer Though, the idea of these species sunsets are a thing of the past. expanding their ranges has been a touchy During time off, miners staying subject for many parties. For example, in Haines Junction are often spotted Kluane National Park and Reserve, racing speedboats on Pine Lake, coolers

full and music blaring. For the past nine 60km from Whitehorse and in this summers, elders have not cast fishnets in market, I made a killing.” the lake. It seems only the wealthiest Reports by trappers of beer cans Yukoners have been able to keep the left along ATV trails tell the story of the homestead dream alive and ignore the company’s workers who, like the sometimes multimillion dollar offers company, come from Alberta. from real estate developers. “Many of those mining types from down south lack the same spirit Those subsistence ways are old ways. and respect for the natural world that defines a true Yukoner,” says native The current circumstances of Yukoner Clay Johnson. reduced hunting and human population expansion has reinforced both the need Only the wealthiest Yukoners have for huge grocery stores like Superstore been able to keep the homestead and the wage jobs that allow people to dream alive. afford to buy from them. CAFN’s Felix Jackson puts the All the new folks to the territory situation into context. “There aren’t need housing and developers have enough caribou and moose anymore to scrambled to meet the challenge. The hunt those animals alone and you can’t pressure for housing within commute rely on getting a hunting tag from the distance of Whitehorse has transformed bison or elk lottery. To eat you need to the drive along the Alaska Highway buy groceries. To pay for groceries you between Whitehorse and Haines need a job. Those subsistence ways are Junction. Property rates have soared in old ways.” response. Echoing Jackson’s sentiments, Most notably over the stretch, the Hunting & Trapping’s Buck Shot says, Department of Highways and Public “You know, I think it is really only a Works widened the highway to four core group of avid hunters who are upset lanes in 2018 to eliminate the dangers of by the hunting situation. Hunting takes commuters passing trucks. Though, in time. A lot more time than walking permafrost thawing zones annual repairs down a grocery aisle.” He adds that, “I are costing upwards of $30,000/km of think a lot of it also has to do with how road. people grew up and people moving here There are also far more turnoffs from southern provinces may not have than there used to be. Recently logged grown up with hunting as a way to put and in many cases agricultural land food on the table.” bordering the Alaska Highway have been converted into high-density “The idea of a ‘land-based’ economy subdivisions. has reverted to mean mineral Space was made for the Vanier extraction, not goods like furs.” Subdivision when Tom Schneider sold his farm. “That’s the way of it,” Kluane Lake Outfitters have had Schneider says. “You can only stare to relocate hunting camps on account of down that kind of an offer for so long. the noise and deteriorated wildlife habitat, which has made it harder to find

wildlife. The same outfitters report a Agnes also adds, “I would love to run drop in client satisfaction for guided my family’s trapline and forget about trips in the area. working a job in the city, but how can I “Outfitting has become a hard with the price of furs being so low?” business,” says Chris Masterson of Trapper Garret “Snare” Hill adds, Kluane Lake Outfitters. “We can no “I think the government has forgotten longer guide for caribou or sheep, which the history of this territory and the were huge economic drives.” activities that truly built it. Non-First He adds that, “several of his Nation people came here for the gold but clients mentioned crisscrossing ATV they fell in love with the land. They trails making the landscape look less hunted and trapped. But the idea of a wild.” The wild, remote feeling of the ‘land-based’ economy has reverted to landscape is a feature that has been a mean mineral extraction, not goods like selling point of outfitting in the Yukon furs. It’s a shame.” for generations but, as Masterson says, is disappearing. This mock-article is part of a study to Similarly, trappers with long develop wildlife management based on traditional family ties to the area have future scenarios in the southwest Yukon. reported significant drops in success All names of people and companies along traplines. Champagne and within are intended to be fictional. Aishihik First Nations member Mary

Scenario Story Line – S3 – “A Confused State” Low Cumulative Impacts, Unpredictable Change, Stewardship

Yukon Herald – October 11, 2032

Management Blunders as Managers Learn to Roll with the Punches

Promises made by the Climate “These programs have been Change Strategy (2006) and Climate expensive, but important expenses,” says Change Action Plan (2009) have come Premier Alfred Greene. to the forefront of government priority. “When the climate change Since 2015 all new government adaptation tax appeared in 2020 I buildings have been built to LEED Gold realized YTG had decided to take their standards. By 2020 greenhouse gas climate change agenda seriously. I emissions within government buildings gladly pay the tax knowing it’s were 50% less than they were in 2010. supporting green building and other Today, all buildings are built on the sustainable initiatives,” says homeowner premise of carbon neutrality. Dan Lenza. “In fact, that leadership is Every Yukon Government what helped me decide to upgrade to a department follows the Green more efficient wood pulp stove.” Procurement Policy. When possible they The Climate Change Secretariat purchase environmentally responsible revamped Yukon Government’s climate goods and drive hybrid-electric vehicles. change education, offering evening Premier Alfred Greene’s workshops on dozens of climate change administration even went as far as related topics. Lenza says it was one of rewriting codes to prohibit companies those workshops that taught him about without sustainability mandates from wood stove efficiency and other ways to operating in the Yukon. be sustainable at home. “I am proud to live in a place with a government that embraced the “There is a wealth of mineral challenges of becoming truly sustainable, resources in the Yukon, but Yukoners especially given the challenges of the are against using the landscape in that climate here,” says Yukoner Clay way.” Johnson. To prepare for climate stresses, There have been more changes several government departments than just new wood stoves and over the completed risk assessments in 2014 to past 20 years the mining industry has understand vulnerabilities of seen the greatest of these changes. Older, infrastructure due to permafrost, water large-scale projects have mostly closed resources, forests, wildlife, and of down while new, large-scale projects communities. Yukon Government also have been for the most part halted at the implemented extensive monitoring feasibility stages. programs in each area that continue For example, the Killermun today. properties within the Ruby Range, which underwent advanced feasibility studies

in 2012, were held back from production Dale Pepper of the Yukon by YESAB due to potential disturbances Agriculture Association says, “There is a of Dall sheep spring lambing. line between the kind of farming that is Everywhere in the Yukon, in harmony with the land and the kind projects are occurring at smaller scales that isn’t. The scale of southwest Yukon than what plans may have indicated 20 agriculture and the sustainable practices years ago. Massive mining operations, keep that balance. Space is left for the like Casino, never made it past advanced wildlife and pesticides are kept out of feasibility planning stages. the watersheds.” Mining Lands Officer James Pickett says, “That operation was going After living here, it is not the gold that to be huge, with a road going right calls you it’s the land’s beauty and through Carmacks. We were talking 650 stillness. employees and a 100MW power generating station for the mine alone. The words of Robert Service’s We were not crazy about what that could “The Spell of the Yukon” remind people do to the area. Can you imagine bringing why a small economy is important. After in that many people from the outside?” living here, it is not the gold that calls “There is a wealth of mineral you it’s the land’s beauty and stillness. resources in the Yukon, but Yukoners Chris Masterson of Kluane Lake are against using the landscape in that Outfitters explains that he gets tired of way,” says Director of Mineral economic arguments for huge resource Resources Tony Brock. “That is why extraction projects. “Leaving the land right now we are only pursuing smaller, the way it is is an economic investment less environmentally disruptive in itself. The wild, remote feeling of the operations.” landscape is a feature that has been a selling point of outfitting in the Yukon “There is a line between the kind of for generations.” farming that is in harmony with the Other Yukoners agree with land and the kind that isn’t.” Masterson. Mary Agnes says, “Keeping mining companies and other industries Agriculture is another sector that small is important for trapping. I am focuses on small-scaled operations. excited every day that I wake up Jill Farmer says, “With this knowing I have my family’s trapline to climate most of what you see are stay connected to the land. It’s special greenhouse-based, family-owned out there. Always has been, always organic farms that aren’t very land- should be.” intensive.” Farmer continues to say that, Changing environmental conditions “there is a huge demand for people to try have provided avenues for new species to eat locally and so hunting is extremely of bark beetles to expand north. important, but when it comes to supplementing that meat with fruits and But that special place has vegetables small farming that maintains changed and continues to do so. Rivers the health of the soil is important.” flow higher due to melting glaciers while droughts have lasted entire summers.

Trees move further upslope as the tundra were upset at the decision to burn wood recedes. In many places, aspen has taken pellets as an energy source. But from a over after spruce failed to grow back sustainability standpoint we felt that after fires and beetle kills. wood pellet emissions are less of an In the past 20 years southwest environmental impact than diverting and Yukon forests have been hit more times ultimately flooding the Gladstone Lakes by bark beetle infestations than ever system for additional hydro capacity at before in written or oral record. Though our Aishihik facility.” not a new threat, spruce bark beetle Yukon Energy Communications outbreaks have increased. But what are Supervisor Harvey Dam says, “We most worrisome are cases like the 2017 wanted to look more into geothermal mountain pine beetle outbreak that energy, but with the unpredictable decimated lodgepole pine in the area. changes to permafrost and how that is The outbreak meant that affecting our aquifers; it just isn’t stable southwest Yukon forests were no longer right now.” under assault from the same old pests. One of the tempting aspects of Changing environmental conditions have the wood pellet energy project was the provided avenues for new species of ability of Yukon Energy to sustain it. bark beetles to expand north. “Not including beetle-killed wood, In 2018 the Yukon Forest harvesting and replanting an eight square Management Branch responded with an kilometer area of forest is all the energy intensive proactive management regime. we need to run a one-megawatt They brought in Fire Cuts, a company generator indefinitely, or enough to from British Columbia that specializes in power about 1000 homes,” Burns says. sustainable selective harvesting But not all plans work as techniques, to harvest small patches of intended. Thinning out forests made dead and stressed, dying trees. Yukon them more susceptible to wind, which in Energy then buys the harvested trees to itself increases a forest’s susceptibility to supply a wood pellet burner. fire. Not to mention, “thinner forests From a forest management alter habitat dynamics for wildlife and perspective, “the selective harvesting may have contributed to the decreasing regime was intended to serve many caribou and moose populations, while at purposes. Removing dead and dying the same time aiding wood bison, elk trees would control stress on trees due to and deer by opening up forests and dry summers, remove forest fire fuel creating small meadows,” says Kluane loads, and help reduce the number of Region Wildlife Biologist Leanne susceptible hosts for beetles,” says Jane Rogers. Timber of the Yukon Forest Management Branch. She added, Unintended consequences and high “Ideally we wanted to prevent large- expense, low result management scale beetle outbreaks and forest fires by seemed to be a common thread. promoting healthy trees.” Regarding the wood pellet burner, In the ten years between 2012 Dan Burns of Yukon Energy says, “We and 2022, unintended management realize that there are emissions from consequences and high expense, low burning the wood pellets and that people

result management seemed to be a animals,” says wildlife veterinarian common thread. Angela Bovine, “and could pose a threat Worried about low numbers of to the herd’s viability if it goes caribou and moose, wildlife managers untreated.” felt pressured to reach back to the 1992- The appearance of the disease 1997 Aishihik wolf control plan. This raised several questions that have yet to time, managers exclusively used be fully answered. Where did it come sterilization techniques to control wolf from and are other diseases present in numbers with the hopes that reducing the bison or elk herds that we might have wolf numbers again would help caribou missed because wildlife managers did and moose calves survive to adulthood. not monitored closely enough? In the narrow scope of the plan, In the future anthrax outbreaks, managers forgot about potential affects which killed 400 wood bison in the to the “newer” ungulates. Rogers admits Mackenzie Bison Sanctuary in the that, “We forgot about bison, elk and Northwest Territories in 2012, could deer. The first time we controlled wolves become a problem considering how the with management they weren’t really an sw Yukon area recently has seen issue. With reduced predator pressures flooding and subsequent droughts, elk, deer and even wood bison conditions that promote increased populations exploded. We didn’t realize concentrations of anthrax spores. how much wolves were controlling these Timber says it is a difficult time other species.” to be a resource manager. “We try to be Ultimately, The Department of proactive with resource management Wildlife & Biodiversity spent huge whenever possible, but with how fast portions of its operating budget on and unpredictable things are these days caribou, moose and sheep management we are often forced to react. You can’t trying to keep their populations viable. plan for animals falling through thin ice, But, “at a certain point,” Rogers says, freak blizzards, or prolonged summer “nothing you do will elevate caribou droughts.” populations if their habitat requirements Because of these past are disappearing.” management blusters, resource managers Prioritizing some species over have had to take a hard look at others has real impacts on species of less management tactics in the face of abrupt priority. For example, in the summer of and unpredictable changes. Environment 2028, CAFN hunter Felix Jackson Yukon’s Karen Chang says, “We accept reported finding several aborted wood that what is happening is beyond our bison fetuses to his Renewable Resource ability to control with management. We Officer. The fetuses were tested and can’t repeat past mistakes.” confirmed to be infected with brucellosis Rogers adds that, “From a by The Animal Health Unit at wildlife perspective this means pulling Environment Yukon. some of the resources for species that “I figured there must’ve been were intensively managed in the past, something wrong with ‘em if a bear such as caribou, and directing them didn’t eat ‘em,” observed Jackson. towards improved monitoring programs “Brucellosis is a concern because geared towards landscape resilience and of its transferability to humans and species that are doing well with the

environmental changes, such as bison “Those of us with our eyes on the and elk.” land could see the changes to the According to Rogers, this is wildlife,” says Champagne and Aishihik especially necessary considering that First Nations trapper Mary Agnes. “We “research reports coming in are often just don’t have the same cultural ties to outdated by the time they are read, so it those elk and bison that seem to be is hard to plan management on science everywhere.” that may have in fact already changed. Agnes says that it took her a long “Then, it is difficult to even time to begin appreciating wood bison reactively manage when you have to especially. “A few years back they budget money in March for the entire ruined a cabin on my trapline and their upcoming year. Money runs out.” When yellow fat still grosses me out. If the this happens Rogers says that her office disease issue isn’t contained, that could adopts a “roll with the punches” attitude. be a real problem. But better a bison to However, in recent years it has become hunt than nothing.” the attitude. Statements like this represent the Initially decisions to shift swing in opinion that gripped many management priorities were not popular Yukoners through the past 20 years. with the public. But both Environment Hunter, Simon Caliber, reflects that it Yukon and First Nations governments in was pandemonium when conservation the southwest Yukon agree that concerns provisions of the UFA were management has to be directed where it implemented for caribou, moose, and can be effective. sheep in 2025. “Management has changed to “People acted like there was focus more on resilience of the some huge crisis. But like everything it landscape,” says Chang. “To achieve faded. I think people slowly realized that this we are promoting cooperation there are other animals that can fill a between departments.” freezer,” Caliber says and adds, “To be Rogers says, “Limiting non- honest, elk is the best eating out there.” climate stressors is the best thing we can Garret “Snare” Hill explains that do for the Yukon’s wildlife. We have he is just happy that he can continue worked with Energy, Mines, and living off of the land. “It is harder than Resources to reforest unused logging before,” He says. “You don’t know roads and looked at ways to reduce whether your piece of the forest will be pollution and erosion from mining there come the morrow, but that’s part of operations.” the thrill, isn’t it?”

“People slowly realized that there are This mock-article is part of a study to other animals that can fill a freezer.” develop wildlife management based on future scenarios in the southwest Yukon. Reevaluating values has gone All names of people and companies beyond resource management to within are intended to be fictional. Yukoners in general. As populations of caribou, moose, and sheep dwindled, people began to appreciate wood bison, elk, and deer.

Scenario Story Line – 4 – “Win-win” Low Cumulative Impacts, Gradual Change, Stewardship

Yukon Herald – October 11, 2032

Management Looks to Future as it Adapts to Slow Change

Premier Alfred Greene explains study for the southwest Yukon by that his government’s goal is to “create Genergy, Inc. The study showed high and maintain a place to live that avoids potential for ground water heating the unstable boom and bust cycles of so pumps in Haines Junction, Carmacks, many economies. One way we sought to Burwash, and parts of Whitehorse. accomplish this was to focus our Since 2019, local municipalities economy and energy systems on have been installing geothermal heat sustainable solutions. This government pumps in buildings, reducing emissions understand that we humans are just one from heating and cooling by up to 94%. part of the system, and its functioning “Geothermal heat pumps are very depends on us not abusing our place in energy efficient. They produce three to it.” four times as much heat energy as they The Premier was not just use and can heat or cool buildings politicking with that statement. Since depending on the outside weather,” says 2015 all new government buildings have Yukon Energy Communications been built to LEED Gold standards. By Supervisor Harvey Dam. 2020 greenhouse gas emissions within Yukon Energy hopes to make government buildings were 50% less geothermal heating available to single- than they were in 2010. Today, all family homes soon. Until then, they buildings are built on the premise of encourage efficient wood pulp burning carbon neutrality. Additionally, every stoves. “A lot of wood after beetle kills Yukon Government department follows or fires is salvageable and is a valuable the Green Procurement Policy. heat source,” says Dam. Even though hydropower is clean Yukon Energy committed to green, many people are uncomfortable with the renewable energy solutions. impacts when a dam is erected at a new location. Around 2016, Yukon Energy Yukon Energy looked hard into committed to green, renewable energy the Gladstone Diversion Concept, a plan solutions and decided to be a model for that would reverse the flow of Gladstone the rest of Canada as a way to move Creek and send the water through a forward in answering energy demands. canal into the Isaac Lakes. The plan Recognizing that the Yukon lies on would have likely caused water levels to significant fault lines, geothermal energy rise and for some of the Gladstone lakes production was a no brainer. to merge. In 2017 Yukon Energy Harvey Dam says, “The project commissioned a geothermal feasibility would increase the capacity of our Aishihik Hydro Facility by 18 gigawatt

hours of power per year, but people up mountainsides, particularly on aren’t interested in seeing those kinds of southern slopes. Earlier snow melting, changes on the landscape.” more rapid glacial melt, and permafrost Geothermal is clean and avoids thaw have all contributed to river levels environmental impacts like flooding rising.” valleys. Yukon Energy’s one concern is According to Chang these the long-term viability of geothermal. It changes, along with temperature is possible that in the future permafrost increasing slightly, more snow during thaw could disrupt the geothermal winters and less rain during summers, reservoirs. For now, though, it is still a represent the southwest Yukon trends. good solution. “Understanding how the landscape is changing allows us to tailor management “Understanding how the landscape is to those conditions.” changing allows us to tailor Kluane Regional Wildlife management to those conditions.” Biologist Leanne Rogers explains that, “caribou and moose have been slowly Future changes, like those to declining over the past 20 years but with permafrost, are of high concern to the knowledge gained from the Yukoners. Karen Chang of Environment monitoring programs huntable numbers Yukon says, “We’re pretty lucky. Things have been successfully maintained.” are changing fast enough that we can tell Through monitoring it was change is happening and how, but not so learned that predation pressure on fast that we can’t adapt management.” caribou and moose from wolves was In 2014 Yukon Government, extremely high. In response First Nations governments, and various Environment Yukon began a chemical university research teams collaborated to sterilization program for wolves and an complete risk assessments to understand incentive program for trappers, granting vulnerabilities of infrastructure due to small subsidies for wolf or coyote furs. permafrost, of water resources, of forests, of wildlife, and of communities. Wood bison, elk, and deer have not The partnerships also worked to struggled under changing conditions. implement an overarching “Eyes on the Land” monitoring program. The Unlike caribou and moose, wood program continues today and has bison, elk, and deer have not struggled focused on areas from the risk under changing conditions. Wood bison assessments. and elk, which were reintroduced, have “This program has been thrived and their populations have been expensive, but an important expense,” heavily restricted to their original areas says Premier Alfred Greene. “University of reintroduction. contributions to research in the Champagne and Aishihik First southwest Yukon has ben invaluable.” Nations Renewable Resource Manager Chang says, “The monitoring Felix Jackson says, “Allowing wood programs have enabled us to see year-to- bison or elk to expand beyond their year changes on the landscape. Over the current ranges would require other First past 20 years the tundra has slowly Nation governments to manage them. receded while the treeline has advanced Our resources should be directed at the

native species that are important to us built tolerance for wood bison, elk and culturally.” deer within wildlife management circles. Finances are only one reason for For other Yukoners, even with the constraining elk and bison expansion. present lack of cultural significance and “There is less and less quality the worry of competition with other habitat for caribou and moose. Forage animals, the newer ungulates seem to be quality, especially of mosses and lichens, on the landscape to stay. has decreased with the dry summer “They are valuable species for conditions. We want to keep wood bison their ability to remove hunting pressure and elk off of what good habitat remains from caribou and sheep,” says Chris to reduce possible competition,” says Masterson of Kluane Lake Outfitters. Jackson. “Sheep and caribou are popular Big Parks Canada maintains the same Game animals and bringing people to stance with regards to wood bison and hunt them is an important part of the elk and continues to keep its borders economy, whereas someone looking for closed to the animals with lethal force. meat for their freezer is often happy with Despite the present focus of an elk.” management on preserving native Time is another factor for species, managers are not blind to the Yukoners with wage jobs that validate truth of current trends. bison, elk and deer. Kluane Regional Wildlife “Most times when I hunt I only Biologist Leanne Rogers says, “More have a day or two to bag an animal. It and more habitat patches are being can be hard to find a caribou, moose, or created that favor wood bison, elk, and sheep in that time. But elk, I can find a deer. Trees are dying one way or another, whole herd of elk walking on the side of from fire, insects, or drought and this is the road,” says hunter Simon Caliber. opening up the forests.” But for people living on the land, Other worries are about major bison can be disruptive. Mary Agnes events and the response of the southwest says, “Bison have wrecked entire Yukon landscape. traplines of my family’s before, have “We have had the occasional fire rubbed against my cabin, and don’t even and beetle outbreak over the past 20 talk to me about muskrat push-ups. years. Nothing unusual about that,” says There is one area close to a trapline of Jane Timber says. “What is different is my family’s that bison use to wallow forests aren’t coming back like they used every summer. There used to be willow to after major disturbances. Aspen there with moose but now it is just open mostly succeeds like after the Takhini mud and grass.” burn, but in some cases it has turned to When asked if she eats bison steppe.” Agnes said, “The yellow fat still freaks me out, but I have bison in my freezer. I “The yellow fat still freaks me out, but like to make smokies out of ‘em.” I have bison in my freezer.” One thing that outfitters, hunters, and trappers alike have in common is the Forward thinking about the appreciation for their opportunities to possibility of habitat converting to favor engage with the land. some species over others has definitely

Agnes says, “I love to live in my to be huge, with a road going right cabin through the winter, eating what I through Carmacks. We were talking 650 have hunted and gathered and checking employees and a 100MW power my traplines.” generating station for the mine alone. She adds that there are few We were not crazy about what that could places left in the world where you can do to the area. Can you imagine bringing live entirely from the land in this way, in that many people from the outside?” but get into town if you need something “There is a wealth of mineral and buy it from a locally owned store resources in the Yukon, but Yukoners rather than a chain. are against using the landscape in that way,” says Director of Mineral In the mining industry, large projects Resources Tony Brock. “That is why have mostly shut down in favor of right now we are only pursuing smaller, smaller operations. less environmentally disruptive operations.” The repulsion of many national chain companies within the last 10 years After living here, it is not the gold that well defines the attitude of southwest calls you it’s the land’s beauty and Yukoners. stillness. “People boycotted stores without proven environmental records,” says Agriculture is another sector that Whitehorse resident Cynthia Shopper. focuses on small-scaled operations. “And some of the bigger stores, like Jill Farmer says, “With this Supergrocery, were just so big and climate most of what you see are impersonal. Who wants to shop at a greenhouse-based, family-owned place where you can’t see the people that organic farms that aren’t very land- it benefits?” intensive.” Smaller development seems to be Farmer continues to say that, a trend in other areas of the economy as “there is a huge demand for people to try well. In the mining industry, large to eat locally and so hunting is extremely projects have mostly shut down in favor important, but when it comes to of smaller operations. supplementing that meat with fruits and For example, the Killermun vegetables small farming that maintains properties within the Ruby Range, which the health of the soil is important.” underwent advanced feasibility studies Dale Pepper of the Yukon in 2012, were held back from production Agriculture Association says, “There is a by YESAB due to potential disturbances line between the kind of farming that is of Dall sheep spring lambing. in harmony with the land and the kind Everywhere in the Yukon, that isn’t. The scale of southwest Yukon projects are occurring at smaller scales agriculture and the sustainable practices than what plans may have indicated 20 keep that balance. Space is left for the years ago. Massive mining operations, wildlife and pesticides are kept out of like Casino, never made it past advanced the watersheds.” feasibility planning stages. The words of Robert Service’s Mining Lands Officer James “The Spell of the Yukon” remind people Pickett says, “That operation was going why a small economy is important. After

living here, it is not the gold that calls you it’s the land’s beauty and stillness.

This mock-article is part of a study to develop wildlife management based on future scenarios in the southwest Yukon. All names of people and companies within are intended to be fictional.