Minnesota Weathertalk January-December 2019

Minnesota WeatherTalk January-December 2019 Cold Start to New Year Gives Way to January Thaw Minnesota WeatherTalk, January 04, 2019 By Mark Seeley, retired University of Minnesota Extension Climatologist

An arctic air mass gripped the state on New Year’s Day this year bringing subzero temperatures to all areas of the state. Only a few areas of southeastern Minnesota remained above zero degrees F. Morning lows of -30 degrees F or colder were reported in portions of St Louis, Itasca, Koochiching, Cook, and Lake of the Woods Counties of northern Minnesota. Daytime high temperatures remained in the single digits above zero at a number of climate stations. This was the second consecutive New Year’s Day (2018-2019) that subzero temperatures have dominated the state.

However, a warming trend began early on January 3rd of this week with southwest winds and sunny skies. Temperatures warmed by dramatically. After -31°F at International Falls on New Year’s morning, the temperature rose to 39°F by afternoon on January 3rd, a 70-degree temperature rise. Following near record high daytime temperatures on Friday, January 4th temperatures will moderate but deliver daily highs above the freezing mark to many areas around the state for 5-7 consecutive days. This will diminish the snow and ice left over from a wetter than normal December.

Record High Temperatures on January 3rd Many northern climate stations reported new record high temperatures on Thursday, January 3rd. Some of these included: 37 degrees F at Crane Lake, 39 degrees F at Cook, 40 degrees F at Baudette, 39 degrees F at Bigfork, and 44 degrees F at Orr.

For many other areas in Minnesota it was the warmest January 3rd since 1984.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Tropical Cyclone Penny and Tropical Cyclone Mona were spinning in the South Pacific Ocean this week well east of Australia. They were largely expected to remain of modest strength and meander out to sea, though Mona is expected to bring heavy rains (6-12 inches) to parts of Fiji this weekend. Meanwhile Tropical Storm Pabuk was bringing heavy surf, high winds, and rain to some tropical islands off the coast of Thailand, where tourists were retreating from being exposed to the storm.

A recent paper by scientists at MIT documents that the oscillation between wet and dry climate regimes in North Africa is primarily driven by a 20,000 cycling in the Earth’s axis with respect to the orbit around the sun. This in-turn affects the amount of solar radiation in that region of the world as well as the types of precipitation patterns that occur.

A recent paper highlighted this week in the AGU-EOS documents the relationship between variations in the African Monsoon Climate and glaciation in Europe. This has been going on for hundreds of thousands of years.

MPR listener question I have heard you say that a January thaw is quite common for many areas of the state. How frequent is it?

Answer Most residents of the Twin Cities area consider the January thaw to be a given or constant. They know it will come, just not precisely when. In 2019 it is coming early in the month with above freezing temperatures expected from the 3rd through the 10th.

Indeed for many central and southern Minnesota locations a January thaw is quite common or frequent. The definition of a January thaw is variable. Some consider it to be any single day with a temperature above 32 degrees F. But consequences associated with a January thaw, like loss of snow cover, melting and drying of street surfaces and sidewalks, softening of lake ice, etc. are generally not realized unless daytime high temperatures rise above the freezing mark for two or more days. Using this as a sorting criteria we can look at the historical frequency of such temperatures for various locations. These frequencies of January thaws (listed below) are highest in most of southern Minnesota, and even parts of central Minnesota, but more like a 50/50 probability in the far northern sections of the state.

Historical frequency of January thaws at various locations since 1948 (defined as two or more days with daytime high temperatures greater than 32 F) Twin Cities 91 percent Rochester 95 percent Pipestone 92 percent Fairmont 92 percent St Cloud 87 percent Morris 80 percent Crookston 62 percent Duluth 62 percent International Falls 53 percent

It is interesting to note that the three consecutive years of 1977, 1978, and 1979 brought no January thaw to most of Minnesota. All three were dominated by abundant January snow cover and are ranked among the top 15 coldest Januarys in state history. The last year without a January thaw in most places was 1994. Some areas of the state saw no January thaw in 2009 and 2014.

Twin Cities Almanac for January 4th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 24 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 8 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for January 4th MSP records for this date include highest daily maximum temperature of 41 degrees F in 2007; lowest daily maximum temperature of -14-degree F in 1884; lowest daily minimum temperature of -32 degrees F in 1884; highest daily minimum temperature of 33 degrees F in 2007; record precipitation of 0.57 inches in 1997. Record snowfall is 3.2 inches also in 1910.

Average dew point for January 4th is 5°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 37°F in 1946; and the minimum dew point on this date is -39°F in 1924

All-time state records for January 4th The state record high temperature for this date is 52 degrees F at Milan (Chippewa County) in 2012. The state record low temperature for this date is -48 degrees F at Leech Lake (Cass County) in 1896. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.13 inches at Red Wing (Goodhue County) in 1886. Record snowfall for this date is 24.0 inches at Wheaton (Traverse County) also in 1997.

Past Weather Features An arctic air mass brought severe cold to the state over January 3-4, 1896. Virtually all climate stations reported subzero minimum temperature readings with many areas of - 40 degrees F in the north. The high temperature at Roseau on January 4, 1896 was a frigid -22°F.

A major winter storm paralyzed many parts of Minnesota over January 3-5, 1997, the first weekend of the New Year. The storm brought rain, freezing rain, and ice pellets starting on Friday, January 3rd, but then turned into all snowfall for the weekend. Many climate stations reported record-setting amounts of snowfall, especially in western counties, where up to 28 inches was reported from Browns Valley. Many roads were closed due to blizzard conditions. The DNR-State Climatology Office documented this storm well.

January 4-11, 2012 brought a remarkable mid-winter warm up to Minnesota. Over 30 Minnesota climate statins reached the 40s F or higher with some reports of 50 degrees F in western counties. Many overnight low temperatures were greater than the normal daily high temperatures.

Trivia: Today’s date January 4th is one of only 5 days on the annual calendar (others are December 27, January 2, January 3, and January 16) when the daytime high has never reached 55 degrees F anywhere in the state in over 150 years of climate history.

Outlook A warm spell into the weekend with a lot of daytime temperatures in the 30s and 40s F. Increasing cloudiness later on Sunday with a chance for mixed precipitation (rain and snow) in southern areas of the state and mostly snow in the north, continuing into Monday. Mostly dry next week with temperatures several degrees warmer than normal.

New State Annual Precipitation Record Confirmed Minnesota WeatherTalk, January 11, 2019 By Mark Seeley

Back in the very wet year of 2016, Waseca recorded 56.24 inches of precipitation, setting a new statewide annual precipitation record. Only two years later in 2018 five southeastern Minnesota climate stations reported 50 inches of annual precipitation and two of them broke the state record: Caledonia (Houston County) reported 57.97 inches; and Harmony (Fillmore County) reported 60.21 inches. At Caledonia, the record total precipitation was greatly enhanced by an intense thunderstorm that delivered 8.10 inches there on August 28th. However, at Harmony the new precipitation record was set because of more frequent heavy rains and not so much individual record-setting rainfalls. For example, at Harmony they normally record about 7 one day rainfalls of 1 inch or greater per year, but this year they had 18 such days. Also, they average about 2 days per year with 2 inches of rainfall, and in 2018 they reported 7 such days.

The new state record of 60.21 inches of precipitation is a greater quantity than the average annual precipitation in states like Alabama and Florida.

High Winds This Week Sunday through Wednesday (January 6-9) brought a great deal of wind to the state. Many climate stations reported 40-60 mph wind gusts on those days. Rochester reported 4 consecutive days with wind gusts of 40 mph or greater. In some northern Minnesota areas these strong winds combined with the cold temperatures pushed Wind Chill values below -25 degrees F. Large 18-wheeler truck rigs had a difficult time negotiated the crosswinds on I90 across southern Minnesota as well.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Though the National Weather Service Forecast Offices across the country continue to issue forecasts, watches, and warnings, many data service and research branches of NOAA continue to be shut down due to the partial government closure.

There is an amusing article in this week’s AGU-EOS newsletter that humorously describes ways for scientists to talk about their work using common jargon of the day. It may be worth thinking about in some situations as complex, discipline-based scientific words can often confuse the public.

The BBC reported this week that several people died as heavy snow continued to cause disruption across parts of Europe. In Austria, avalanches claimed the lives of several people, while temperatures dropped to record lows in northern Greece. Beaches near Athens, Greece were covered in snow.

MPR listener question When we do set a record temperature, how often do we break the old record by 1 or 2 degrees, and how often by more, like the 47-degree F reading last week that broke previous record by 6 degrees?

Answer Indeed, it was not especially unusual to see a new maximum temperature record set on January 4th last week in the Twin Cities with a reading of 47 degrees F but breaking the old record by 6 degrees F (max temp of 41 degrees F in 2007) was relatively rare. In the Twin Cities climate record, which dates back to 1873, about 53 percent of all daily maximum temperature records on the calendar broke the previous record by just 1 or 2 degrees F. So, this margin for record breaking values of maximum daily temperature is pretty common throughout history. Only about 14 percent of the time is the old maximum temperature record broken by 6 degrees F or more, as it was on January 4th this year. The all-time maximum temperature record aberration in the Twin Cities dates to May 31, 1934 when the afternoon high reached 106 degrees F, breaking the old record of 92 degrees F in 1925 by a whapping 14 degrees!

By the way, almost all of the wintertime daily maximum temperature records in Minnesota are set in winters with an absence of snow cover.

Twin Cities Almanac for January 11th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 23 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 7 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for January 11th MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 44 degrees F in 1986; lowest daily maximum temperature of -19 degree F in 1912; lowest daily minimum temperature of -31 degrees F in 1977; highest daily minimum temperature of 34 degrees F in 2013; record precipitation of 0.47 inches in 1930. Record snowfall is 6.0 inches also in 1905.

Average dew point for January 11th is 5°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 36°F in 1980; and the minimum dew point on this date is -38°F in 1977.

All-time state records for January 11th The state record high temperature for this date is 59 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 2012. The state record low temperature for this date is -53 degrees F at St Vincent (Kittson County) in 1888. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.70 inches at Beaver Bay (Lake County) in 1866. Record snowfall for this date is 24.0 inches at Riverton (Crow Wing County) also in 1975.

Past Weather Features On a statewide basis January 11, 1912 was the coldest in state history with virtually all areas of the state recording subzero temperatures. Over 20 climate stations reported a morning low negative 40 degrees F or colder, with -52°F at Bagley (Clearwater County). The temperature at Crookston, MN never rose higher than -25°F all day.

The “Storm of Century” occurred over January 10-12, 1975 and paralyzed the state with heavy snow and high winds. Many counties were under a blizzard warning and scores of roads and highways were closed. There was a good deal of wind damage in rural areas as gusts topped 50 to 80 mph in places. Many areas received over 20 inches of snow. Near Willmar, 168 passengers were trapped on a train for many hours.

The warmest January 12 in state history was in 2012 when over 70 communities saw the thermometer climb into the 50s F, under bright sunny skies and little or no snow cover. The overnight low temperature never dropped below the freezing mark at Kimball and St James.

Outlook Increasing cloudiness over the weekend, but temperatures will be warming up to above normal values, well into the 30s F in many areas. No major storms for the next week or so. The warmth will peak on Monday with some 40s F temperature possible, then temperatures will diminish a bit next week closer to normal values for this time of year. No major winter storms are seen through the period.

Warm January Will Finish with Cold and Snow Minnesota WeatherTalk, January 18, 2019 By Mark Seeley

So far, the month of January has followed the warmer than normal trajectory laid down by December. Most areas of the state are averaging 6 to 9 degrees F warmer than normal through the first 17 days of the month. For the Twin Cities climate record (1872- present) the first half of this January tied for the 5th warmest in history, trailing only those of 2006, 1987, 1880, and 2012. Earlier this month besides the back-to-back record high temperatures of 47°F in the Twin Cities on the 4th and 5th, a record high minimum temperature record was tied on the 7th with an overnight reading of 34°F.

But the other shoe will drop beginning this weekend, as temperatures generally average colder than normal for the rest of the month. The coldest temperatures of the month so far occurred back on New Year’s Day with some readings of -30 degrees F or colder up north. Some temperatures over the next few days may be that cold up north. But many places in southern Minnesota, including Rochester and the Twin Cities have yet to see a subzero temperature reading. This will certainly change during the second half of the month, though no major record-setting cold outbreak is foreseen. In addition, there will be more chances for snowfall, especially in areas of the state that have seen little this month.

New Web Site For those who want to learn more about weather, climate science, climate change and its consequences, as well as Minnesota weather and climate history, there is a new web site designed by my daughter Emma Seeley that is available. You can book a presentation, a book discussion, or other event if you wish. "Once an educator, always an educator" is my motto. It can be accessed at… drmarkwseeley.com

I hope you will take a look and consider using it.

Weekly Weather Potpourri New research discussed in this week’s AGU-EOS newsletter highlights the linkage between the extent of Arctic Sea Ice and the passage of Arctic cyclones. It appears that with the continued loss of Arctic Sea Ice, we may see more powerful cyclones develop in this region.

Several scientists, including myself, provided the Minnesota House Energy and Climate Finance and Policy Division members with a briefing about climate change and its consequences for Minnesota during hearings this week at the State Capitol on Tuesday

and Thursday.

According to the BBC on Wednesday of this week a severe sandstorm (called a Haboob) turned the sky orange around Cairo, Egypt and caused people to cover their mouth and nose with handkerchiefs or masks as the dust was extremely thick. Those with respiratory ailments were advised to stay indoors. Winds off the desert sands gusted to over 50 mph.

The Bureau of Meteorology in Australia reported that January 12-15 brought some of the all-time hottest days to many parts of the country. Parts of central and northwestern Australian saw daytime high temperatures ranging from 112°F to 120°F.

MPR listener question I was surprised to hear that the Twin Cities has not recorded a subzero temperature yet this winter. How unusual is this and what is the record for fewest subzero readings during a winter?

Answer Indeed, the latest first subzero temperature reading in the Twin Cities is January 18th. This occurred in 1889, 2002, and 2012. The weather pattern for this weekend suggests that we will break this record in 2019 when we will see our first subzero temperature reading on either the 19th or 20th.

Overall for the winter season, the fewest number of days with subzero temperature readings occurred in the following winters: 2001-2002 just two days 2011-2012 just three days 1877-1888 just four days

Twin Cities Almanac for January 18th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 23 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 7 degrees F (plus or minus 15 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for January 18th MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 48 degrees F in 1891; lowest daily maximum temperature of -16 degree F in 1994; lowest daily minimum temperature of -36 degrees F in 1887; highest daily minimum temperature of 33 degrees F in 1944; record precipitation of 0.31 inches in 1895. Record snowfall is 4.5 inches in 2014.

Average dew point for January 18th is 7°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 39°F

in 1973; and the minimum dew point on this date is -40°F in 1967.

All-time state records for January 18th The state record high temperature for this date is 57 degrees F at Caledonia (Houston County) in 1996. The state record low temperature for this date is -51 degrees F at Babbitt (St Louis County) in 2005. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.28 inches at Jordan (Scott County) in 1996. Record snowfall for this date is 18.0 inches at Sibley Township (Sibley County) in 1866.

Past Weather Features Probably the coldest January 18th in state history was in 1967 when over 20 communities saw a morning low of -40 degrees F or colder. Snow cover was abundant across the state as an arctic high-pressure system slowly move over the landscape. The daytime temperature never rose above -16°F at Morris.

Thirty-seven years ago this week, January 18-24, 1982 the snowiest week in Twin Cities climate history occurred. The week was preceded by a blizzard on the 15th and 16th which ushered in very cold arctic air. Then on January 20th (Wednesday) the cities were paralyzed by 17.4 inches of snowfall. In fact, a band of 14 inches or more fell from Glencoe NE toward Chippewa Falls, WI. Two days later, on the 22nd (Friday) before the previous snow had been entirely dealt with, another 18.5 inches of snowfall hit the Twin Cities. By the weekend roughly 40 inches of snow had fallen during the week, producing drifts over 10 feet high. The month produced a grand total of 46.4 inches of snow, the highest of any January on record in the Twin Cities. Numerous buildings were damaged by the excessive snow load and eight people died of heart attacks while shoveling snow. The depth of snow on the ground in the Twin Cities reached an all-time record of 38 inches.

January 18, 1996 brought a brief respite from a cold, snowy winter for residents of southeastern Minnesota, where south winds and sunny skies marched the thermometer all the way up into the 40s and 50s F by afternoon. In Houston and Winona Counties where temperatures were in the 50s F, some motorists noticed that highway repair crews were outside working in shirt sleeves.

Outlook Partly cloudy and colder than normal over the weekend, with many subzero lows. There will be increasing clouds later on Sunday with moderating temperatures and a chance for snow, carrying over into Tuesday. Colder temperatures return by mid-week with a chance for more snow by next Friday.

Reversal of January Temperature Trend Minnesota WeatherTalk, January 25, 2019 By Mark Seeley

Following an unusually warm first half of January, the weather pattern in Minnesota has been dominated by northwesterly flow of air, and temperatures have generally averaged colder than normal on most days. For many areas of the state 8 of the past 9 days have been colder than normal, and many subzero minimum temperatures have been reported. In fact, over the past week the coldest temperatures of the 2018-2019 winter have been measured, with over 30 climate stations reporting a minimum temperature of -30°F or colder. Ten stations have reported minimums of -40°F or colder, and for three days in a row (January 19-21) Minnesota reported the coldest temperature in the nation (including Alaska). In addition, many windchill readings in the minus 30s and minus 40s F were reported over the past week.

The temperature pattern of cooler than normal values will stay with us through the end of the month and into the first week of February. Record-setting cold values may not be in store, but temperatures may average 10 to 25 degrees F colder than normal. In the end this will completely offset the very warm first half of the month and may produce monthly average temperatures for January of 2019 that are slightly cooler than normal, extraordinary since the first half of the month was among the warmest in history.

January 18th Snowfall in Southern Minnesota Snowfall was widespread across southern Minnesota either side of the I-90 corridor last Friday and Friday night. Many areas received over 6 inches of snowfall, and areas of northern and eastern Iowa reported 7 to 13 inches, closing some roads for a time. Some new daily record quantities were reported from some Minnesota communities. The following were new daily record amounts: 8.1 inches at Rochester 6.0 inches at Owatonna 10.5 inches at Grand Meadow 10.8 inches at Windom 12.0 inches at Winnebago In addition, there were widespread -30s F temperatures reported on Saturday morning (January 19th) in northern Minnesota. Kabetogama reported -42 degrees F on Saturday morning. Wind Chill readings remained in the teens and twenties below zero for several hours during the morning of the 19th as well.

More about this storm can be found at the Minnesota State Climatology Office web site.

Weekly Weather Potpourri For those who cannot get enough of the cold, the Ice Hotel (Hotel de Glace) is open in Quebec City, Canada. You can visit, eat, drink, and even stay there if you wish. The structure is entirely made of ice. It has become a Canadian tradition for some.

A recent study has validated some skill in forecasting climate trends over the next few years. The study shows that skills are improving for near-term climate predictions when climate models are started from real-time observations of both the ocean and the atmosphere. These coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models also incorporate the effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and natural effects, such as solar variability on climate. You can read more about this study at the United Kingdom Meteorological Office web site.

An interesting paper appeared in the AGU-EOS this week highlighting a detailed study of the urban heat island of Tokyo, and how it might affect spectators during the running of the next Olympic Marathon race scheduled for August of 2020. There are indeed some very uncomfortable micro-climates within the city that heat up significantly.

MPR listener question What is historically the coldest Wind Chill reading reported in the Twin Cities and how often does is a Wind Chill value of -50°F reported?

Answer The coldest Wind Chill for the period from 1905-2018 was -63°F for January 22, 1936. That was the winter when some Twin Cities street cars were reported to be frozen on the tracks. There have been 15 winters when the Wind Chill readings (by the NOAA- NWS algorithm used since 2001) have been -50°F or colder, the last one occurring in 1996.

Twin Cities Almanac for January 25th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 24 degrees F (plus or minus 15 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 7 degrees F (plus or minus 15 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for January 25th MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 58 degrees F in 1944; lowest daily maximum temperature of -16 degree F in 1904; lowest daily minimum temperature of -31 degrees F in 1904; highest daily minimum temperature of 42 degrees F in 1944; record precipitation of 0.50 inches in 1950. Record snowfall is 7.5 inches also in 1950.

Average dew point for January 25th is 5°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 48°F

in 1944; and the minimum dew point on this date is -35°F in 1972.

All-time state records for January 25th The state record high temperature for this date is 67 degrees F at Springfield (Brown County) in 1981. The state record low temperature for this date is -55 degrees F at Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) in 1904. The state record precipitation for this date is 1.78 inches at Grand Meadow (Mower County) in 1967. Record snowfall for this date is 16.5 inches at Isabella (Lake County) in 1982.

Past Weather Features January 25, 1981 felt like spring in Minnesota. With little or no snow on the ground and a bright sun, and southerly winds afternoon temperatures climbed into the 60s F across western counties where many citizens took their lunch outdoors to enjoy the spring-like weather.

The winter of 1995-1996 was a snowy one. On January 25, 1996, an arctic high- pressure system brought bone-chilling temperatures to the state with widespread readings of -30 degrees F or colder, and -50 degrees F at Tower. The daytime high temperature at Warroad and Hallock only made it to -12 degrees F.

A large, complex, and slow-moving winter storm brought heavy snowfall to the state over January 25-27, 2004. Many climate stations reported 10 to 20 inches of snowfall. Duluth reported a total of 27.1 inches while Two Harbors reported 30.5 inches. It was very slow and difficult driving along Hwy 61 by the Lake Superior shoreline.

Outlook Cold weekend coming up, with increasing clouds and some moderation in temperature on Sunday. Chance for widespread snow later on Sunday and into Monday, with accumulations of snow across most of the southwestern half of Minnesota. This will be followed by even colder temperatures next week, most of which will be dry. Subzero overnight temperature readings will be very common, and some areas may see a few days when the high temperature does not rise above zero.

Dangerous Weather Should be Treated Seriously (January 29-31) Minnesota WeatherTalk, January 29, 2019 By Mark Seeley

The next 48 hours (Tuesday midday to Thursday midday) will bring temperatures and Wind Chill conditions that are serious threats, the most severe conditions on a statewide basis since those of late January and early February in 1996 across Minnesota. Even in a broader historical context these severe conditions are quite rare having occurred about once every 10 to 12 years over the past 120 years of record keeping. Perhaps the one place on Earth where cold weather is taken most seriously as a health risk is Antarctica. At the Amundsen-Scott South Pole station this week Wind Chill values will be in the minus 20s and minus 30s F. We will have colder conditions here in Minnesota. Below is a chart of projected Wind Chill conditions from the National Weather Service.

According to NOAA-National Weather Service guidelines from the medical profession exposed human flesh can freeze in 10 minutes with Wind Chills of 35 below zero (F) or colder and in 5 minutes with wind chills of 50 below zero (F) or colder. But bear in mind that localized conditions can vary tremendously, easily plus or minus 10 degrees F from what is reported by the National Weather Service. Under these circumstances even brief exposures due to running errands, doing chores outside, walking the dog, taking out the trash, etc. can be risky if something goes wrong and your exposure time is unexpectedly lengthened. So, caution should be a hard and fast rule. Don’t hesitate to check on friends, neighbors, and relatives as well.

January Climate Summary: Records Galore Minnesota WeatherTalk, February 01, 2019 By Mark Seeley

What a wild ride in temperature patterns during January. The month will go into the Minnesota record books with most climate stations reporting a mean monthly temperature that is 1 to 4 degrees F colder than normal. What a deceptive statistic that is. It was intimidating to see the unanticipated extremes swings in temperature occur. For the first half of the month (January 1-15) mean temperatures around the state were some of the warmest in history, averaging 11 to 13 degrees F warmer than normal. Embedded in the warm pattern there were over 70 daily records broken or tied in the Minnesota climate observing network with respect to daytime maximum or warm nighttime minimum temperatures.

Then the other shoe dropped and during the second half of the month, when temperatures averaged 12 to 16 degrees F colder than normal. Over 70 daily record minimum temperature values were broken or tied within the climate observing network, and over 70 daily record cold maximum temperature values were tied or broken as well. Further, during the second half of January Minnesota reported the nation’s coldest temperature 11 times (including Alaska). Readings of -56 degrees F at Cotton (St Louis County) on January 27th and January 31st set new all-time statewide low temperature marks for those dates. Over 40 climate stations reported at least one minimum temperature of -40 degrees F or colder, and during the coldest day of the month, January 30th, over 20 communities reported Wind Chill readings of -60 degrees F or colder. The coldest Wind Chill reading came from Hibbing with -65 degrees F.

Extreme temperatures for the month ranged from 49 degrees F at Winona Dam on the 5th to -56 degrees F at Cotton on the 27th and 31st. It is not often that Minnesota reported a 105 degrees F temperature range during one month! Among the scores of record cold temperatures reported some stand out because they occurred for stations with exceptionally long histories. Among these I found six new record cold maximum temperatures reported on the 30th:

-14 degrees F at Duluth -16 degrees F at Brainerd -17 degrees F at Hibbing and St Cloud -19 degrees F at International Falls and Rochester

More detail on the Arctic Cold Outbreak this week can be found at the Minnesota State Climatology Office web site.

One other notable record was that MSP tied the lowest ever dew point reading with -35 degrees F on January 30th. That indeed is very dry air.

January was drier than normal in most places around the state. Caledonia was the wettest spot with 2.76 inches of precipitation (some rain and melted snow), while just northwest of Grand Marais was the snowiest spot in the state with nearly 24 inches.

It was a windy month with 8-10 days producing some winds over 30 mph, and many areas reported wind gusts over 40 mph. On January 8th, some observers reported wind gusts over 50 mph.

The exceptional cold of the second half of the month drove frost depths in the ground deeper, now between 2 and 3 feet in places.

Weekly Weather Potpourri The BBC Weather Centre reported this week that a serious snowstorm was making travel difficult across southwestern England (Devon and Cornwall) as well as Wales on Thursday of this week. Heavy snow was causing very long traffic delays and many schools were closing down for Friday in anticipation of continued cold and snow.

The protracted January Heat Wave continued in Australia this week with temperatures topping 100 degrees F in many places. In Sydney which saw daytime highs up to 104 degrees F, widespread power outages occurred on Thursday of this week. Power usage has been very high for air conditioning.

This week’s AGU-EOS newsletter contains an interesting article about the link between air pollution and the rate of stroke mortality. Regions of the USA with a high level of fine- grained air pollutants have shorter life expectancies and an increased rate of death from a stroke, according to new research.

MPR listener question Why are the variations in low temperature for the year greater than the variations in high temperature for the year when we look at the historical record?

Answer The simple answer is that the year’s lowest temperature occurs in the winter, the season of long nights and short days. In winter, the low temperature is heavily dictated by the presence or absence of snow, as well as how widespread the snow cover is around the state and region. The presence of snow amplifies the cold readings, producing winters with very low temperatures. Winters with little or no snow cover produce much more modest low temperatures, often only in the single digits below zero.

Conversely, the year’s maximum temperature, usually in summer, is when we have long days and short nights. During the days, the atmosphere tends to be well mixed (more wind) and heats up over broad areas, less influenced by the nature of the landscape.

MPR listener question Are these periods of extremely cold weather due to polar vortex going to increase in frequency due to climate change? Might they also increase in duration?

Answer We don’t know for sure. The upper air pattern, including the position and orientation of the polar jet stream is influenced by a variety of atmospheric and Earth surface features, including the oceans and land surfaces, which are warming. Research already suggests that as climate continues to change, especially in the mid to high latitudes there will be an effect on the polar jet stream that may influence its’ position and orientation. But all of those details we don’t know yet.

In Minnesota history there have been very long and amplified episodes of Arctic Air due to the position of the polar vortex including 1835, 1843, 1857, 1875, 1888, 1899, 1904, 1912, 1916, 1917, 1924, 1933, 1936, 1966, 1972, 1982, 1983, 1985, 1996, and this year.

Twin Cities Almanac for February 1st The average MSP high temperature for this date is 25 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 9 degrees F (plus or minus 15 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for February 1st MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 54 degrees F in 1931; lowest daily maximum temperature of -12 degree F in 1996; lowest daily minimum temperature of -28 degrees F in 1951; highest daily minimum temperature of 33 degrees F in 1892; record precipitation of 0.89 inches in 1922. Record snowfall is 6.7 inches also in 2004.

Average dew point for February 1st is 3°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 35°F in 1931; and the minimum dew point on this date is -35°F in 1951.

All-time state records for February 1st The state record high temperature for this date is 60 degrees F at St Peter (Nicollet County) in 1931. The state record low temperature for this date is -58 degrees F at Tower (St Louis County) in 1996. The state record precipitation for this date is 1.85 inches at Fairmont (Martin County) in 1915. Record snowfall for this date is 18.5 inches

also at Fairmont (Martin County) in 1915.

Past Weather Features A large and complex winter storm brought rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow to many parts of the state over February 1-3, 1922. In western counties 10-14 inches of snow fell, while in the southeastern counties freezing rain prevailed.

The warmest February 1st in state history was in 1931 when over 30 climate stations reported an afternoon high temperature that ranged from 50 to 60 degrees F. Bright sun, southerly winds, and little snow cover contributed to the warm temperatures.

There have been two severe Arctic Outbreaks on February 1st in Minnesota history. One occurred in 1899, lasting from January 29 to February 13th, and bringing consecutive days of subzero overnight temperatures. It was -38 degrees F at Detroit Lakes on February 1st. The second Arctic Outbreak was over January 29 to February 5th of 1996, again with consecutive subzero nights. On February 1st over 10 Minnesota climate stations reported a minimum of -50 degrees F or colder.

Outlook A sharp warming trend will continue throughout the weekend, but with increasing cloudiness and a chance for drizzle, freezing drizzle, or light rain by late Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will be above normal throughout the weekend. Rain and snow are in the mix for Monday, then snow for Tuesday and Wednesday in places. Cooler by the end of next week, as temperatures fall below normal, but not to record cold values.

Cold and Snowy February in 2019 Minnesota WeatherTalk, February 08, 2019 By Mark Seeley

The cold temperature trend from the second half of January has re-established itself around the state in February, but this time coupled with widespread significant snowfalls (the first of which came over February 4-5). For many climate stations in the state this month is already the snowiest of the winter season so far, with reports of 10 to 20 inches in many places. Cloquet and Moose Lake reported over 10 inches alone on February 7th, while MSP reported a new record amount for the date of 5.7 inches. Many parts of the state were under a Blizzard Warning for February 7th.

All of the models point to a continuation of the cold and snow for much of the month. Historically, February is the snowiest month of the snow season only about a tenth of all years, so this is kind of rare. The last time February was the snowiest month was the winter of 2015-2016. We all know that March and April can bring over 20 inches of snow, so it is perhaps too early to think that February of 2019 will be the snowiest month.

Records Galore from January 29-31 Arctic Outbreak Last week on MPR’s morning edition I underestimated how many daily temperature records were tied or broken during the Arctic Outbreak of January 29-31. Checking the official observational networks in Minnesota it looks like over those 3 days 107 daily lowest minimum temperature records were set and 133 lowest (coldest) daily maximum temperature records were set. Some of the records set were from climate stations with long records of observation. Among these were:

A new coldest ever maximum temperature on January 29th at Big Falls with -23°F A new coldest ever maximum temperature on January 30th at Crookston with -22°F A new coldest ever maximum temperature on January 31st at Morris with -21°F A new all-time state minimum temperature record for January 31st of -56°F at Walker and Cotton

Not surprising that so many records were set over those three days as the average daily temperatures around the state were 30 to 35 degrees colder than normal.

Weekly Weather Potpourri This week NOAA News features an article about states that are actively engaging in both climate adaptation and climate mitigation strategies to improve resilience and preserve environmental quality.

There were two powerful tropical cyclones in the Southern Indian Ocean this week.

Cyclone Funani developed east of La Reunion Island and proceeded SE into the Indian Ocean with winds of 115-120 mph and wave heights of 50 feet. It is not expected to be a threat to land. Cyclone Celena was spinning off the northeast coast of Madagascar with winds of 110-115 mph and wave heights of 35 feet. It may pose a threat to Mauritius Island by Saturday.

MPR listener question What is the difference between polar vortex cold and regular cold below zero temps in Minnesota? It seems normal for Minnesota to have really cold weather in winter. Are polar vortex cold snaps associated with climate change?

Answer No simple answer here. The polar vortex can be a dynamic forcing mechanism for sending very cold air that originates in the Arctic latitudes down to Minnesota. This was the case in 2014 and again this winter. The polar vortex (a high latitude low pressure system) can influence trajectory of the Polar Jet Stream and allow Arctic Air to spill down to lower latitudes. But it is not always the dominant forcing mechanism. Sometimes a very strong low-pressure system can cross the USA through the central plains or even the southern plains states and draw an arctic high-pressure system down behind it to fill the void. Such was the case in February 1899, 1936, and 1996.

Twin Cities Almanac for February 8th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 27 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 10 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for February 8th MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 50 degrees F in 2002; lowest daily maximum temperature of -19 degree F in 1899; lowest daily minimum temperature of -29 degrees F in 1899; highest daily minimum temperature of 36 degrees F in 1966; record precipitation of 1.08 inches in 1966. Record snowfall is 5.0 inches also in 1905.

Average dew point for February 8th is 8°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 39°F in 1966; and the minimum dew point on this date is -32°F in 1971.

All-time state records for February 8th The state record high temperature for this date is 66 degrees F at Madison (Lac Qui County) in 1991. The state record low temperature for this date is -55 degrees F at Warroad Dam (Roseau County) in 1933. The state record precipitation for this date is 1.35 inches at St James (Watonwan County) in 1947. Record snowfall for this date is 15.0 inches at Grand Marais (Cook County) in 1937.

Past Weather Features The coldest February 8th in state history was in 1933 when an arctic high-pressure system brought subzero record cold to most parts of the state. Over 20 climate stations reported a minimum temperature of -40°F or colder, with seven communities reporting - 50°F or colder. The high temperature at Thief River Falls only made it to -25 degrees F.

Both February 8th of 1987 and 1991 brought a taste of spring to Minnesota. Under sunny skies and soft southerly winds temperatures climbed into the 60s F across southern and western counties.

Outlook Cold weekend with slight chances for snow flurries both Saturday and Sunday. A bit warmer on Monday (closer to normal), but chances for snow Monday night and Tuesday. Another chance for snow by Thursday of next week as well. Temperatures will remain 5 to 15 degrees F below normal throughout the period.

Snowy February Continues Minnesota WeatherTalk, February 15, 2019 By Mark Seeley

Many climate observers have reported measurable snowfalls on over half of the days so far this month. Over 45 climate stations have reported 20 or more inches of snow so far, on a pace to be the snowiest February in state history. Just north of Two Harbors they have received over 30 inches for the month. In addition, over 120 daily snowfall records have been set this month in the Minnesota climate network, including 8.0 inches at Hokah and La Crescent on the 12th.

Some climate stations have already reported their snowiest month of February in history. Some of these stations include: Eau Claire, WI 28.7 inches Hastings 26.7 inches Lake city 25.0 inches Theilman 23.7 inches Leech Lake 24.5 inches Minnesota City 22.5 inches Wabasha 22.1 inches

NOAA-National Weather Service reports that the Twin Cities with 22.2 inches of snowfall in February ranks 4th most historically. MSP reported new daily record snowfalls on February 7th (5.9”), February 10th (5.9”), and February 12th (5.5”). The most snowfall ever measured in February in Minnesota was 51 inches at Pigeon River Bridge (Cook County) in 1939. It is unlikely any climate station will approach that record.

Total snowfall for the 2018-2019 season has surpassed 70 inches at a number of northeastern Minnesota locations, while along the Lake Superior at Grand Marais, Two Harbors, and Wolf Ridge Environmental Learning Center they have reported over 80 inches of snowfall. Likely some of those areas will exceed 100 inches before the snow season ends.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Anthony Arguez of NOAA wrote an interesting piece this week that puts the January Arctic Cold Temperature Outbreak in the context of our long-term warming trend. It is an interesting read and comparison to the temperature fluctuations of other places as well.

Tropical Cyclone Oma was churning in the South Pacific Ocean well off the coast of northeastern Australia this week. It was of modest strength, but generating 25 foot seas and winds over 75 mph.

A recent research paper from the University of Colorado puts a positive spin on the loss 23

of the Greenland Ice Sheet by proposing that the nation export the sand and gravel deposits so prolifically left behind by the melting glaciers. As climate change melts Greenland's glaciers and deposits more river sediment on its shores, an international group of researchers has identified one unforeseen economic opportunity for the Arctic nation: exporting excess sand and gravel abroad, where raw materials for infrastructure are in high demand.

AGU-EOS reported this week that a recently completed global ice thickness survey shows that some of the ice content of Asian Glaciers has been overestimated. This has implications for estimates of water supply available to some Asian nations.

MPR listener question I am so tired of the snow this month. Here in Woodbury, it has snowed practically every other day. What is the record number of days with snowfall for February in the Twin Cities?

Answer February of 1962 is the record holder for the Twin Cities with 23 days of at least a trace of snowfall, producing a record monthly total of 26.5 inches.

Twin Cities Almanac for February 15th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 29 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 13 degrees F (plus or minus 15 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for February 15th MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 63 degrees F in 1921; lowest daily maximum temperature of -11 degree F in 1936; lowest daily minimum temperature of -25 degrees F in 1875; highest daily minimum temperature of 37 degrees F in 1984; record precipitation of 0.87 inches in 1967. Record snowfall is 8.5 inches also in 1967.

Average dew point for February 15th is 11°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 44°F in 1921; and the minimum dew point on this date is -25°F in 1946.

All-time state records for February 15th The state record high temperature for this date is 67 degrees F at Winona (Winona County) in 1921. The state record low temperature for this date is -53 degrees F at Ada (Norman County) in 1936. The state record precipitation for this date is 1.84 inches at Winsted (McLeod County) in 1967. Record snowfall for this date is 12.5 inches at Fergus Falls (Otter Tail County) in 1945.

Past Weather Features February 15, 1921 was by far the warmest in state history, with over 20 climate stations reaching a daily high temperature of 60 degrees F or greater. For many cities, the nighttime temperature remained above freezing.

The coldest February 15th in history came during the bitterly harsh winter of 1936. On this date over 20 Minnesota climate stations reported a minimum temperature of -40 degrees F or colder. The daytime high at Fosston (Polk County) only reached -28 degrees F.

A large winter storm brought heavy snowfall to the northern half of the state on February 15, 1945. Most cities reported from 6 to 12 inches of heavy, wet snow. Some roads and highways were closed in the Red River Valley.

Outlook There will be cooler than normal temperatures throughout the weekend, but with an increasing chance for snow later on Saturday and into Sunday. Temperatures starting out next week will be colder yet with some subzero and single digit overnight lows. There will be another chance for snow by late Wednesday, with slightly warmer temperatures, but still below normal for this time of year.

Snowiest February Continues Minnesota WeatherTalk, February 22, 2019 By Mark Seeley

“The best cross country skiing conditions ever for the month of February” is a common expression this month, at least across many parts of the state including the Twin Cities.

In addition to the 120 daily snowfall records set or tied this month in the Minnesota climate station network, Wednesday of this week (February 20th) brought yet another record-setting snowfall to at least 25 climate stations in Minnesota, including 11.3 inches at New Ulm.

So far over a dozen climate stations in Minnesota have reported total February snowfall of 30 inches or more, with a station near Mankato reporting 40.2 inches so far this month. Only 7 Minnesota climate stations have ever reported over 40 inches of February snowfall. With nearly a week to go in the month, some climate stations may approach the all-time February snowfall record of 51 inches set at Pigeon River Bridge (Cook County) in 1939.

Many climate stations have already reported the snowiest February in their history, including the Twin Cities with 31.7 inches so far. Nearly two-thirds of the total snowfall in the Twin Cities this season (49.5 inches) since the 5th of February. Among the other monthly snowfall records for February so far are: 27.6 inches at Rochester 23.5 inches at St Cloud 37.3 inches at Two Harbors 28.2 inches at Kabetogama 32.2 inches at Faribault 31.7 inches at Hastings 24.5 inches at Leech Lake 34.3 inches at New Ulm 26.0 inches at Lake City

Two north shore locations, Two Harbors and Wolf Ridge Environmental Learning Center are reporting seasonal snowfall totals of greater than 90 inches now. So it is certain some areas of the state will end the snow season with over 100 inches.

More information about this snowy February and the overall snow season as well can be found at the Minnesota State Climatology Office.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Speaking of snow, Flagstaff, AZ reported a record 35.9 inches on February 21 this week. This gives them a monthly total of almost 68 inches so far. More information can be found from NOAA-National Weather Service Office there.

A NOAA Climate Assessment shows the declining water levels in the Ogallala Aquifer of the Central Plains States. This trend is expected to continue and will impact the agricultural production of these states.

In the Western North Pacific Ocean this week Typhoon Wutip formed southeast of Guam and increased in strength. By Friday it was showing winds up to 130 mph and sea wave heights over 40 feet. It is expected to grow stronger as it heads northwest and perhaps brushes Guam over the weekend with a dose of heavy rain.

MPR listener question Did we recently set a new all-time state February snowfall record? If so, when was the last time an all-time state record was set?

Answer Although the observer at Mankato has reported over 40 inches of snowfall so far this month, it is still shy of the state record for February of 51 inches set at Pigeon River Dam (Cook County) in 1939. The last statewide monthly record for snowfall to be broken was in 2013 when Island Lake (St Louis County) reported a new April record of 55.6 inches.

Twin Cities Almanac for February 22nd The average MSP high temperature for this date is 31 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 16 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for February 22nd MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 59 degrees F in 2017; lowest daily maximum temperature of -2 degree F in 1889; lowest daily minimum temperature of -22 degrees F in 1873; highest daily minimum temperature of 38 degrees F in 1930; record precipitation of 1.13 inches in 1922. Record snowfall is 8.8 inches also in 1913.

Average dew point for February 22nd is 14°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 44°F in 2017; and the minimum dew point on this date is -21°F in 1965.

All-time state records for February 22nd The state record high temperature for this date is 66 degrees F at Whitewater Township (Winona County) in 1943. The state record low temperature for this date is -46 degrees F at Bemidji (Beltrami County) in 1939. The state record precipitation for this date is 3.00 inches at Willmar (Kandiyohi County) in 1922. Record snowfall for this date is 15.0 inches at Gaylord (Sibley County) in 2011.

Past Weather Features A very cold day occurred on February 22, 1889. With abundant snow on the ground an arctic high-pressure system ushered in record-setting cold air. The high temperature at Moorhead only reached -20°F while the high reached just -15°F at Morris. Duluth reported a daytime high temperature of -12°F after a morning low of -27°F.

A large winter storm brought a mixture of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow to Minnesota over February 22-23, 1922. While southeastern Minnesota citizens suffered through an ice storm, central and northwestern citizens endured 10-20 inches of heavy, wet snow. Both Milaca and Detroit Lakes reported over 20 inches of snow.

The week of February 16-22, 1981 was so warm in southwestern Minnesota that some farmers were seen tilling fields and planting small grains. Daytime temperatures were consistently in the 60s F.

Outlook Generally cloudy going into the weekend, with a mixture of precipitation on Saturday that may include rain, freezing rain, and snow. Some areas may see several inches of snow Saturday night. Blustery with strong wind gusts on Sunday, then an increasing chance for snow later on Monday and Tuesday with temperatures remaining well below normal values. A drier pattern for later next week.

Good Riddance to February Minnesota WeatherTalk, March 01, 2019 By Mark Seeley Suffice to say February was a memorable month. It was the snowiest February in history for many cities in our region, as well as very cold. On a statewide basis, February of 2019 will be the 2nd wettest in history (trailing only 1922 which had a lot of rain), and tied for 11th coldest in history with 1910.

Some of the communities with long-term climate records that reported their snowiest ever month of February included: Austin 32.5” Worthington 35.9” Minnesota City 45.7” Grand Meadow 35.2” Faribault 38.4” Waseca 30.3” Winnebago 32.4” Rushford 38.0” Theilman 45.5” Zumbrota 39.0” Wabasha 41.6” Marshall 37.9” Redwood Falls 35.8” Tract 35.0” MSP 39.0” (also 4th snowiest month in history) Owatonna 52.5” (a new statewide record for the month of February) Rochester 40.0” St Cloud 27.6” Duluth 36.4” Two Harbors 7NW 40.6” Kabetogama 34.2” New Ulm 37.3” Eau Claire, WI 53.7”

During the month 152 daily snowfall records were tied or broken within the Minnesota climate observation network.

These enormous snowfall totals have pushed many seasonal snowfall totals beyond 70 inches and many cities are now reporting above normal snowfall totals since last October. Four stations along the north shore of Lake Superior have seasonal snowfall totals greater than 90 inches. At Rochester, the seasonal total snowfall is 73.8” ranking as the 5th highest seasonal snowfall all-time there, while at Tracy (Lyon County) the season total is 73.5” also ranking as the 5th highest seasonal total all-time. And we still 29

have the months of March and April to go.

In addition many climate stations reported near record or record amounts of precipitation (liquid equivalent) for the month, ranging from 3 to 4 inches. During February 84 daily precipitation records were set or broken within the Minnesota climate observation network.

From a temperature standpoint, the average February temperature values with Minnesota’s climate network ranged from 8 to 12 degrees F colder than normal. Extremes for the month were 53°F at Wells (Faribault County) on the 3rd to -56°F at Cotton (St Louis County) on the 1st. Minnesota reported the nation’s coldest temperature 6 times during the month. Further, 19 daily low minimum temperature records were tied or broken within the climate observation network, while 61low daily maximum temperature records were tied or set.

The strongest winds of the month occurred with the passage of a deep low-pressure system across the state over February 22-24. Blizzard conditions prevailed during the storm across a wide swath of the state with many reports of winds over 40 mph, causing zero visibility. Over 20 climate stations reported peak winds of over 50 mph. The Minnesota State Climatology Office has more to say about this.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Thanks to the excessive precipitation across Minnesota during February NOAA has released an initial spring snowmelt flood outlook showing moderate risk throughout most areas of the state. Many portions of the snowpack on the landscape contain 3-4 inches of water, while soil frost depth ranges from 2-4 feet. The precipitation that materializes across the region during the month of March may either mitigate the flood threat or amplify it.

The Bureau of Meteorology in Australia released an analysis this week showing that country had its hottest summer of record this year. The excessive heat contributed to bushfires, blackouts, and a rise in hospital admissions. Wildlife also suffered, with reports of mass deaths of wild horses, native bats, and fish. "The real standout was just how widespread and prolonged each heatwave was - almost everywhere was affected," climatologist Blair Trewin told the BBC.

NOAA’s Tom Di Liberto writes an interesting synopsis of western USA weather during the month of February. In the span of a week in mid-February 2019, record-breaking snow buried Seattle, a strong storm known as a “Kona Low” pummeled the Hawaiian Islands, and a fire hose of moisture known as an “atmospheric river” soaked California.

Greg Spoden, former Minnesota State Climatologist pointed out this recent discussion from the NOAA-National Weather Service: “Arctic air still looks to invade the region over

the weekend. Temperatures are forecast to be 25-35 degrees below normal on Sunday and Monday. This means we could break some temperature records, especially in the category of record cold highs. Also, we will likely see a Wind Chill Advisory on Monday (and possibly Sunday too). March Wind Chill Advisories are rather rare and have only been issued three times since 2006 (March 11, 2009, March 1, 2014, and March 3, 2015) …and for those who've had their fill of snow, good news. The forecast looks dry from Sunday through Wednesday.”

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center was monitoring Cyclone Pola in the South Pacific Ocean this week as if formed south of Tonga. As of Friday, it was producing 85-90 mph winds and 25-foot seas.

MPR listener question Now that we have set the record in the Twin Cities for most snowfall in February (39”), wondering what the record highest snowfall values are for other months.

Answer Indeed, here are the record values for the other months along with the year recorded: September 1.7” 1942 October 8.2” 1991 November 46.9” 1991 December 33.6” 2010 January 46.4” 1982 March 40.0” 1951 April 26.1” 2018 May 3.0” 1892, 1935, 1946

Twin Cities Almanac for March 1st The average MSP high temperature for this date is 34 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 18 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for March 1st MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 59 degrees F in 1990; lowest daily maximum temperature of 0 degree F in 1962; lowest daily minimum temperature of -32 degrees F in 1962; highest daily minimum temperature of 38 degrees F in 2004; record precipitation of 1.62 inches in 1965. Record snowfall is 9.0 inches also in 2007.

Average dew point for March 1st is 14°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 43°F in 2004; and the minimum dew point on this date is -34°F in 1962.

All-time state records for March 1st The state record high temperature for this date is 76 degrees F at Ashby (Grant County) in 1907. The state record low temperature for this date is -47 degrees F at Bigfork (Itasca County) in 1962. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.50 inches at Jordan (Scott County) in 2007. Record snowfall for this date is 18.8 inches at Collegeville (Stearns County) in 1965.

Past Weather Features By far the coldest March 1st in state history was in 1962. With widespread deep snow cover already in place Arctic High Pressure ushered in record setting low temperatures ranging from minus 20 to minus 30 degrees F in southern counties to as cold as -47 degrees F up north. The daytime high never rose above -14 degrees F at Hallock (Kittson County).

A large winter storm brought heavy snows to the state over March 1-3, 1965. Many areas of the state received 10-20 inches of snowfall, and over two feet of snow was measured at Collegeville and Bird Island. It was the beginning of a very snowy month of March.

March came “in like a lamb” in 1992, with widespread afternoon readings in the 50s and 60s F under bright, sunny skies. At Milan (Chippewa County) the temperature reached 70 degrees and people took lunch outside.

Outlook It will be very cold for the first weekend of March (not much of a surprise) with a chance for a few flurries early on Saturday. Daytime temperatures on Sunday and Monday may approach all-time record cold values. Generally, a cold and dry weather pattern will prevail for the balance of next week, with temperatures 15 to 25 degrees F colder than normal.

Minnesota WeatherTalk to return on March 22 Minnesota WeatherTalk, March 08, 2019 By Mark Seeley

Thanks for being a Minnesota WeatherTalk reader!

Flood Threats Minnesota WeatherTalk, March 22, 2019 By Mark Seeley Many factors have contributed to the current flood threat on Minnesota rivers this month. Perhaps the three most important at this point in time are:

-a wetter than normal final four months of 2018 (Sep-Dec was 40-50 percent above normal precipitation) -frost depths in the ground in many areas, ranging from 25 to 45 inches, preventing infiltration of melted snow -Above normal snowfall for the 2018-2019 season (over 125 climate stations report a seasonal total of 65 inches or greater so far) with widespread water content of 4-6 inches.

As a result of these climate factors the NOAA-North-Central River Forecast Center flood outlook for certain points along many southern Minnesota Rivers including the Redwood, Cottonwood, Minnesota, Des Moines, Crow Wing, Cannon, and Mississippi Rivers (at St Paul and Hastings) calls for moderate to major flooding.

These conditions are similar to those faced in the flood years of 1952, 1965, 1997, 2001, and 2011 on many of these watersheds. Yet, two factors that play an important role in determining the peak flood level are only going to play out over the next 2-3 weeks. These are the pace and persistence of a spring thaw with temperatures that remain above freezing; and the amount of precipitation that falls during the snowmelt time period. In this context, an expected intermittent thaw with temperatures rising above freezing during the day but dropping below freezing at night will help mitigate the flood threat. Countering that however, there is a chance for above normal precipitation to prevail over the southern half of Minnesota during the next two weeks, so this may increase the volume of flow on some rivers. For those who live in more vulnerable areas with respect to flooding it is wise to check the web site of the NOAA-North-Central River Forecast Center for updates.

Roller Coaster Temperatures Minnesota reported the nation’s coldest temperature on March 1st (-23°F at Cotton, MN), and set or tied over 180 cold daily temperature records (either daily maximum or minimum) during the first week of the month. But temperatures have moderated since March 8th, with a large number of freeze-thaw cycles. Many climate stations have seen afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 50s F this week.

Weekly Weather Potpourri NOAA provided a more comprehensive national flood outlook on their web site earlier this week, with notes about flood risks on both the Missouri River and the Red River of the north between Minnesota and North Dakota. Wide geographic regions of the country are facing moderate to major flood probabilities at this time.

According to the BBC Weather, Cyclone Idai which struck portions of Mozambique and Zimbabwe late last week has inundated over 1800 square miles of landscape, caused over 300 deaths, and left thousands homeless. Many relief organizations are working there to help victims of the storm.

Elsewhere in the Southern Hemisphere this week Tropical Cyclones Veronica and Trevor were producing strong winds, churning up high sea waves, and bringing rainfall to portions of northern Australia. Sea wave heights have ranged from 30 to 40 feet this week.

MPR listener question I am a truck driver in southern Minnesota and listen every day to Morning Edition. I have noticed around Rochester and Marshall this winter that the snow depths have been especially deep. Have these two Minnesota cities had record amounts of snowfall this winter?

Answer No, they haven’t, but they certainly have recorded a snowy winter. At Rochester, the snow season total for 2018-2019 so far is 78.6 inches, in second place historically to 85.1 inches which came in 1996-1997. At Marshall they have recorded 77.3 inches so far this season, that is 6th place all-time and below the 84.7 inches they reported in 1936-1937.

Twin Cities Almanac for March 22nd The average MSP high temperature for this date is 44 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 27 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for March 22nd MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 71 degrees F in 1945; lowest daily maximum temperature of 10 degree F in 1888; lowest daily minimum temperature of -14 degrees F in 1888; highest daily minimum temperature of 56 degrees F in 2012; record precipitation of 1.40 inches in 1952. Record snowfall is 13.7 inches also in 1952.

Average dew point for March 22nd is 23°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 60°F

in 2012; and the minimum dew point on this date is -10°F in 1974.

All-time state records for March 22nd The state record high temperature for this date is 81 degrees F at Pipestone (Pipestone County) in 1939. The state record low temperature for this date is -30 degrees F at Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) in 1888. The state record precipitation for this date is 3.00 inches at Elk River (Sherburne County) in 1865. Record snowfall for this date is 14.6 inches at Fairmont (Martin County) in 1952.

Past Weather Features By far the coldest March 22nd in state history was in 1888 when morning lows ranged from the minus teens to minus twenties across the state. The daytime high temperature at Rochester that day was only 6 degrees F. Abundant snow was still on the ground.

The warmest March 22nd in state history was in 1939. Over 20 climate stations saw an afternoon high of 70 degrees F or higher. There was little or no snow on the ground in western Minnesota. March 22-23, 1952 brought a blizzard with heavy snowfall to many areas of Minnesota. Snowfall amounts of 10 to 18 inches were common. Many people were stranded along closed roads and travel was at a standstill for a day or two afterwards. The abundant snow of March that year melted rapidly in April causing spring flooding in many areas.

Outlook Generally sunny and warm on Saturday, with temperatures several degrees F above normal. Increasing cloudiness on Sunday with a chance for light rain in the southern regions of the state, perhaps a light mixture of snow and rain in the north. Temperatures will fall back a bit for Monday and Tuesday then rebound with a warming trend for next Wednesday through Friday. There will be a chance for rain towards the end of the week as well.

Preliminary Climate Summary for March 2019 Minnesota WeatherTalk, March 29, 2019 By Mark Seeley

Following the trend of February, March was colder and wetter than normal across most of the state. Most climate stations will report a mean March temperature that ranges from 3 to 6 degrees F cooler than normal. No daily record high maximum or minimum temperatures were reported within the Minnesota climate station network. However, during the cold first week of the month there were 74 low minimum daily temperature records tied or broken, and 108 daily low maximum temperature records tied or broken. Extreme temperatures for the month were minus35°F at Cotton (St Louis County) on the 8th to 67°F at Windom (Cottonwood County) and Winnebago (Faribault County) on the 27th.

Most observers in the state reported above normal precipitation for the month, with the wettest areas in west-central and southwestern counties where totals of 2.5 to 3.0 inches were common. Within the climate station network 103 daily precipitation records were tied or set. Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) reported the most with 3.26 inches. Many stations reported over 1.5 inches of precipitation on the 14th. For monthly snowfall, over 100 climate stations reported a monthly total of 10 inches or more, with 15 to 18 inches in western portions of the state. Within the climate station network, 37 daily snowfall records were tied or broken during the month. Amazingly, 170 climate stations reported new daily snow depth records, including 40 inches at Milan (Chippewa County) on March 10th.

There was plenty of wind during the month as well, with 10 or more days seeing gusts of 30 mph or higher.

Thankfully the second half of March was drier than normal, with many freeze-thaw cycles which helped to meter out the snowmelt runoff, and mitigate a serious flood threat on many watersheds.

The Annual Larson-Allmaras Endowment Lecture on April 5th For those interested in environmental and agricultural topics, a highlight of the month of April is the Annual Larson-Allmaras Endowment Lecture at the University of Minnesota- St Paul Campus. This program concentrates on the topics of soil and water, with emphasis on research and management practices. This year it is scheduled for 2pm on April 5th. It is also special because it is marking the retirement of Professor Satish Gupta, who has concluded a 46-year career. The title of his presentation is "Reflections on 46 years of research: From packing sand grains to the Minnesota River. You can find

out more at the Department of Soil, Water, and Climate website.

Weekly Weather Potpourri For those not acquainted with the Cloud Appreciation Society, they are out with their new newsletter and cloud of month photo. They also have some articles about clouds depicted in works of art, as well as descriptions of some cloud watching tours they are conducting.

Tom Di Liberto of NOAA is out with an interesting article about how well the NOAA- Climate Prediction Center performed with their 2018-2019 winter Outlook for the nation. With respect to Minnesota, they got it wrong with both temperature and precipitation for the December through February period. The CPC outlook for winter favored warmer than normal conditions and normal to drier than normal with respect to precipitation. The actual measured conditions were colder than normal or near normal for the average of December-February, and very much wetter than normal with respect to precipitation.

Another analysis released this week by NOAA presents the expansion of the pollen season due to climate change. In our Minnesota backyards the ragweed pollen season measured over the past several decades has lengthened by 16 to 20 days.

In this week’s AGU-EOS newsletter there is a highlighted report about how difficult it is to accurately track and count tornadoes across the Canadian landscape. Scientists there are trying to come up with methods to more accurately count tornadoes, including an examination of signatures in the Canadian Lightning Detection Network.

In the Southern Indian Ocean this week Cyclone Joaninha was churning with winds of 115 mph and sea wave heights of 35-40 feet. It was weakening and remaining out to sea and not a threat to any islands there.

MPR listener question I am a 60-year gardener in the Twin Cities (West St Paul), and I have always abided by the statistic that our average last temperature reading of 32 degrees F or colder in the spring is about May 9th. But my neighbors tell me that it has changed, and it is earlier now. Can you provide an opinion on this?

Answer Indeed, your neighbors are correct. Over the past 20 years, the last reading of 32 degrees F in the Twin Cities has been around April 20th. The latest it has occurred in the past 20 years is May 9th in 2010, but it has also occurred as early as April 8th in 2006.

Twin Cities Almanac for March 29th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 48 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 29 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for March 29th MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 83 degrees F in 1986; lowest daily maximum temperature of 13 degree F in 1969; lowest daily minimum temperature of -5 degrees F in 1969; highest daily minimum temperature of 57 degrees F in 1910; record precipitation of 0.79 inches in 1998. Record snowfall is 11.0 inches also in 1924. Believe it or not there was still 27 inches on the ground on this date in 1965.

Believe it or not on this date in 1843 the high temperature at Fort Snelling was 11°F and the low was -7°F for a mean daily temperature of 2°F, 37 degrees F colder than the modern normal.

Average dew point for March 29th is 25°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 56°F in 1910; and the minimum dew point on this date is -13°F in 1969.

All-time state records for March 29th The state record high temperature for this date is 83 degrees F at MSP and at Gaylord (Sibley County) in 1986. The state record low temperature for this date is -23 degrees F at Itasca State Park (Clearwater County) in 1921. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.88 inches at Lake City (Wabasha County) in 1998. Record snowfall for this date is 17.5 inches at Maple Plain (Hennepin County) in 1924.

Past Weather Features The morning of March 29, 1922 brought bitter cold temperatures to Minnesota, with subzero readings across the far north. Even the daytime highs could not make it out of the 20s F that day in many places.

March 28-29, 1924 brought a blizzard with heavy snow to many parts of the state. Many observers reported 10-20 inches from this storm, with a record-setting 22 inches at Canby (Yellow Medicine County). By far the warmest March 29th in state history was in 1986. Most areas of the state saw afternoon high temperatures reach the 70s F, while 17 climate stations reported highs of 80 degrees F or greater.

The greatest March tornado outbreak in Minnesota history took place on March 29, 1998, resulting in two fatalities. As many as 14 tornadoes touched down across southern Minnesota, including 13 spawned by a supercell thunderstorm that tracked from the SW corner of the state to just a few miles from the Wisconsin border. One of the more powerful tornadoes, an EF-4, was on the ground for 67 miles and had a 39

maximum width of 1.25 miles. Comfrey and St Peter were hit very hard, and it took years to recover from the damages. The MN State Climatology Office provides a more detailed accounting of these storms.

Outlook A mostly sunny weekend is coming up, with temperatures a few degrees F cooler than normal. It will continue to be mostly dry with a slight chance of a shower late Sunday in some places. A warmup to above normal temperatures will begin on Monday but increasing cloudiness by Wednesday will bring a chance for rain or wet snow showers to many areas.

A Miraculous Melt Minnesota WeatherTalk, April 05, 2019 By Mark Seeley

Since March 31, most rivers in southern Minnesota have been falling, with peak flow volumes reached during the last week of the month. For many areas this meant not major flooding, only moderate flooding. In the Wahpeton-Breckenridge area the Red River flow has begun a slow decline, but further north through Fargo-Moorhead the Red River is expected to continue to rise and peak near 35 feet by the end of the weekend. This would barely make the top ten flood crests list at Fargo, but it still represents major flood stage for the Red River there.

As the classic Minnesota expression goes “could have been worse.” In fact much worse, but since mid-March we have experienced a miraculous melt period, primarily because of two favorable characteristics of the weather: (1) less than a tenth of an inch of precipitation over the past 20 days; and (2) as many as 18-19 freeze-thaw cycles, allowing melting during the day and refreezing at night, thereby metering out the snowmelt runoff in smaller quantities.

Numerous observers in western and northern Minnesota have reported virtually zero precipitation over the past 20 days, a remarkably well-timed dry period. Furthermore, even though we are at a time of year when daytime high temperatures commonly reach into the 50s F, many observers have reported only one or two such days. Despite a warm-up to above normal temperatures for the coming weekend and Monday of next week, the balance of next week shows a cool down, with a continued trend towards below normal rainfall. With such a weather pattern anticipated I would expect some farm fields will be suitable for field work shortly after Easter weekend.

A Salute to Dr. Satish Gupta My colleague and friend Dr. Satish Gupta retired recently after 46 years on the University of Minnesota-St Paul Campus, first as a USDA-ARS researcher and then as a faculty member in the Department of Soil, Water, and Climate. Dr. Gupta was a diligent and thorough researcher, teacher, and advocate for better soil and water management. Dr. Gupta was a mentor and advisor to many outstanding graduate students, and a widely respected researcher. He will be solely missed, and we wish him all the best in his retirement.

Weekly Weather Potpourri To the dismay of many scientists, the Trump administration intends to make significant cuts to the budget for NOAA. The budget proposed by the Trump administration would cut NOAA’s budget by 18%. It would target climate and ocean research programs and also slash education initiatives, grants, and other agency programs. You can read more

detail from the AGU-EOS. According to the Minnesota State Climatology Office HydroClim Newsletter this week ice is coming off medium sized lakes in southern Minnesota near the historical median dates of occurrence, and earlier than last year. In addition the early spring fire danger around the state is low.

NOAA this week features an article about how officials in North Carolina are building more resilience into the infrastructure of the famed Outer Banks area, a geography that is already being impacted by climate change.

MPR listener question When do you think that the frost will come out of the soil this month?

Answer Indeed, even though there has already been some thawing at the soil surface, most soils are still frozen from 4 to 20 inches deep. But with the above normal temperature throughout the weekend, I think many areas of southern Minnesota may lose their soil frost by next week. In northern areas of the state, it may linger deeper into the month of April. Pete Boulay from the MN-State Climatology Office reports this week that ice is starting to come out on many southern Minnesota lakes, very near to the median historical dates.

Twin Cities Almanac for April 5th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 52 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 32 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for April 5th MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 80 degrees F in 1991; lowest daily maximum temperature of 29 degrees F in 1982; lowest daily minimum temperature of 12 degrees F in 1979; highest daily minimum temperature of 60 degrees F in 1921; record precipitation of 0.91 inches in 1999. Record snowfall is 1.5 inches also in 1964.

Average dew point for April 5th is 27°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 60°F in 1929; and the minimum dew point on this date is -2°F in 1979

All-time state records for April 5th The state record high temperature for this date is 88 degrees F at Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) in 1991. The state record low temperature for this date is -18 degrees F at Warroad (Roseau County) in 1936 The state record precipitation for this date is 2.95 inches at Pigeon River Bridge (Cook County) in 1933. Record snowfall for this date is

28.0 inches also at Pigeon River Bridge (Cook County) in 1933.

Past Weather Features An early April Heat Wave occurred in 1929 making the weather headlines in most area newspapers. Daytime temperatures over April 3-5 soared into the 80s F. Over 40 climate stations reported highs between 80- and 89-degrees F, and some farmers began to till their fields.

April 5, 1936 brought winter weather conditions to Minnesota with many subzero morning low temperatures. Portions of seven northern Minnesota counties reported subzero temperatures with the presence of snow cover. The high temperature at Angus (Polk County) only reached 20 degrees F.

April 4-6, 1997 brought a blizzard and heavy snow to many parts of northwestern Minnesota. From 6 to 14 inches of snow fell over the Red River Valley. The snow was also of a high-water content and exacerbated the flood fight to hold back the Red River and other rivers that feed it. During the blizzard visibility was near zero at times.

Outlook Warmer than normal temperatures over the weekend, but with increased cloudiness and a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Drier by later on Monday, then cooler than normal temperatures for Tuesday through Thursday next week, with a chance for rain or snow showers on Wednesday. Some areas could see some heavy wet snow.

A Significant Mid-April Winter Storm Minnesota WeatherTalk, April 12, 2019 By Mark Seeley A large and deep low-pressure system crossed the plains from Colorado to Wisconsin during the middle of the week bringing a mixture of precipitation along a 900-mile frontal boundary, and producing widespread winds of 40 to 50 mph. The winds ushered in a great deal of dust and soils from the southern states, notably TX and NM, such that many in the region observed a brownish or yellow tinge to the snow that fell. And plenty of snow fell over April 10-12 this week. Many areas of the state picked up from 6 to 20 inches. Some of the snowfall totals from this storm were quite impressive, including

20.0 inches at Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) 18.0 inches at Ortonville (Big Stone County) 17.0 inches at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) 14.0 inches at Milan (Chippewa County)

Even larger numbers were observed in eastern South Dakota with Watertown reporting 23.2 inches and Clear Lake reporting 26.3 inches.

This snow had a high water content as well, bending and breaking many tree branches with its weight, as well as power and telephone lines. Many in southern and western counties were without power, and a number of roads and highways were closed due to blizzard conditions.

Some of those climate stations reporting new daily snowfall records for April 10th included: Milan with 6.0 inches, Hokah with 6.1 inches, Rochester with 4.1 inches, and Eau Claire, Wi with 3.9 inches. In addition, Hokah and Luverne reported new record daily precipitation amounts for April 10th with 1.26 inches, and 0.76 inches, respectively.

For April 11, a number of other new daily record amounts were reported, including: 11.0 inches at Montevideo and Dawson; 10 inches at Canby, Marshall, and Brownton; 9.5 inches at Chanhassen; 9.2 inches at New Ulm; 8 inches at Rosemount; 7.6 inches at Wabasha; 7.5 inches at Faribault; and 6.8 inches at Redwood Falls. In addition, with such high-water content many new daily precipitation records were reported, including: 1.57 inches at Bird Island; 1.64 inches at Marshall; 1.45 inches at Winona; and 1.36 inches at La Crescent. In fact, many areas reported from 1 to 2 inches of liquid water content in the snow.

With the abundant snow from this storm three western Minnesota communities have now set new seasonal snowfall records during the 2018-2019 snow season. They are:

Granite Falls with 92.5 inches Canby with 90.4 inches Marshall with 88.8 inches

Weekly Weather potpourri NASA release some images of the dust storm generated by the passage of the low- pressure system (described above) earlier this week through the central USA. Winds of 60 to 70 mph across New Mexico and Texas on April 10th generated a great deal of dust and reduced visibility to near zero on many roads and highways. You can view the satellite images at the University of Wisconsin SSEC web site.

Climate models present a range of possible scenarios—some show more extremes than others, which can make it difficult for cities, states, and countries to plan ahead. Now, however, in a new study, Padron et al, suggest a way to reduce uncertainty using precipitation patterns from the past. You can read more about this study in this week’s AGU-EOS newsletter.

Saturday, April 13th is Citizen Science Day and NOAA highlights some exemplary citizen science projects this week on their web site. The projects involve oceans, atmosphere, and old weather records. There are also links to other resources for citizen science projects.

More than a foot of rain fell on portions of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil this week, bringing flash flooding to many areas. Some roads were washed out and many homes were flooded. More from the BBC Weather Centre.

MPR listener question With this week’s storm of mixed precipitation in the Twin Cities I was wondering how often does a one or multi-day storm deliver an inch or more of water during the month of April? It seems to me to be quite rare in occurrence, and I have been keeping rain gage records since 1959.

Answer Indeed, this is unusual. The storm of April 10-12 this week delivered several inches of snow, combined with sleet, and even rain. At MSP airport the total snowfall was 9.7 inches with a liquid water content of 1.02 inches. Below is a list of the historical April storms in the Twin Cities climate record (135 years) that have brought mixed precipitation (snow, rain, and sleet) that produced over an inch of liquid water:

April 13-14, 1983 brought 13.6 inches of snow and 1.93 inches of water April 19-21, 1893 brought 10 inches of snow and 1.67 inches of water April 29-30, 1984 brought 9.7 inches of snow and 1.63 inches of water April 14-17, 1961 brought 7.2 inches of snow and 1.52 inches of water April 13-15, 2018 brought 15.7 inches of snow and 1.32 inches of water April 13-14, 1949 brought 9.3 inches of snow and 1.25 inches of water April 6-7, 1923 brought 9.4 inches of snow and 1.05 inches of water April 10-12, 2019 brought 9.7 inches of snow and 1.02 inches of water

Twin Cities Almanac for April 12th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 56 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 36 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for April 12th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 83 degrees F in 1931; lowest daily maximum temperature of 28 degrees F in 1950; lowest daily minimum temperature is 12 degrees F in 1962; highest daily minimum temperature of 60 degrees F in 1941; record precipitation of 0.67 inches in 1983; and there was a record 6.0 inches of snowfall in 1962.

Average dew point for April 12th is 31 degrees F, with a maximum of 61 degrees F in 1941 and a minimum of -1 degrees F in 1950.

All-time state records for April 12th The state record high temperature for this date is 90 degrees F Beardsley (Big Stone County) in 1931. The state record low temperature for this date is -7 degrees F at Warroad (Roseau County) in 1924. State record precipitation for this date is 3.74 inches at Grand Meadow (Fillmore County) in 2001; and record snowfall is 11.8 inches at Madison (Lac Qui County) in 1995.

Past Weather Features By far the warmest April 12th in state history was in 1931 when over 30 climate stations reported high temperatures of 80 degrees F or greater. The overnight temperature never fell below 58 degrees F at Montevideo and Redwood Falls.

April 12, 1950 was a cold and blustery day across the state. After morning lows that were subzero in the north and single digits in many other areas the daytime highs remained in the 20s F with Wind Chill values in the single digits. At Red Lake Falls the daytime high was only 19 degrees F.

Outlook

A dry weekend coming up with temperature well below seasonal normals. Temperatures will begin to warm up closer to normal by Monday through Wednesday of next week, but still a few degrees shy of seasonal averages. There will be a chance for rain on by Wednesday and Thursday.

Wet April Continues Minnesota WeatherTalk, April 19, 2019 By Mark Seeley

According to the Minnesota State Climatology Office the first widespread heavy rain event of 2019 produced minor flooding, rapid stream rises, and even a road-closing mudslide in southern Minnesota on Wednesday April 17, 2019. The heaviest rainfalls occurred in a swath from New Ulm to Hastings, but many other climate stations reported significant rainfalls from 1 to 2 inches. A mudslide along Highway 169 north of St Peter caused the highway to be closed for a while.

Many climate stations reported new daily record rainfall values that day including: 1.24” at Lake City, 1.28” at Jordan, 1.30” at Zumbrota, 1.49” at Red Wing, 1.60” at Minnesota City, 1.73” at Owatonna, 1.95” at Rosemount, 2.39” at Faribault, 3.08” at Hastings, 4.18” at St Peter, and 4.45” at Northfield. There were also widespread reports of thunder and lightning.

With this additional moisture at least 35 climate stations now report over 3 inches of precipitation for the month so far. With 4.63 inches so far this month, St Peter has already logged the 8th wettest month of April in their climate history (back to 1893), while Hastings, with 4.53 inches is also having their 8th wettest April in history going back to 1933.

With eleven days left in the month we will undoubtedly see these rainfall totals for April climb. However, it is quite unlikely anyone will come close to the all-time April rainfall total of 11.93 inches at Lynd (Lyon County) in 1896.

Weekly Weather Potpourri A new study from NASA published in Environmental Research Letters documents a validation of global satellite data sets with surface observations of temperature on Earth over the period 2003 to 2017. Both data sets show a remarkable warming trend.

On Thursday evening, April 25th, MPR Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner and I will be doing a program at the Bell Museum from 7 to 9pm titled “Weather vs Climate: Beyond Weatherdome.” We will discuss some of the most significant weather and climate impacts in Minnesota and take questions from the audience. This fits well with the ongoing exhibit through April 28th titled “Weather to Climate: Our Changing World.”

NOAA featured this week a description of the Urban Assessment Program (UAA) which is an online tool for municipalities to assess climate risks and options for coping with them based on local data bases.

MPR listener question We have lived on the same corner in northwest Northfield for over 30 years. Yesterday’s (April 17) rain caused street flooding for several blocks. This is the third time in about 5 years we have seen this kind of flooding. Is there any chance that this kind of heavy rain (and the flooding) is related to climate change?

Answer I wish I could answer your question by dissecting all the climate data from Northfield, but the observational record there is too sparse. Further down the road at Faribault there is a consistent record back to 1890 and it shows that over 110 years up to 2002 there were just 24 daily rainfalls of 3 inches or greater recorded. Since 2002 there have been 7 more. This conforms to a significant trend across much of the state that shows a higher frequency of heavy rainfalls. It also conforms to what the climate models tell us is in our future. So, there is more than a chance climate change is involved in what you received this week, there is a significant likelihood.

Twin Cities Almanac for April 19th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 60 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 39 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for April 19th MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 87 degrees F in 1985; lowest daily maximum temperature of 35 degree F in 1928; lowest daily minimum temperature of 19 degrees F in 1928; highest daily minimum temperature of 67 degrees F in 1985; record precipitation of 1.28 inches in 1871. Record snowfall is 1.2 inches in 1982.

Average dew point for April 19th is 35°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 62°F in 1957; and the minimum dew point on this date is 6°F in 1988.

All-time state records for April 19th The state record high temperature for this date is 95 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1985. The state record low temperature for this date is -3 degrees F at Tower (St Louis County) in 1897. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.87 inches at New Richland (Waseca County) in 1916. Record snowfall for this date is 25.0 inches at Isabella (Lake County) in 2013.

Past Weather Features One of the most massive April snowstorms in state history occurred over April 19-21, 1893. The large low-pressure system blanketed the state with rain, snow, and sleet. The Twin Cities reported 10 inches of snow, Rochester 14 inches, and St Cloud 36 inches. In fact, St. Cloud set an April record that year with 49 inches of snowfall.

Perhaps the coldest April 19th on a statewide basis was in 1928. Morning lows fell into the teens F as far south as Worthington, while single digits prevailed in the north. The daytime high at Warroad was only 27 degrees F.

By far the warmest April 19th in state history occurred in 1985 when over 20 southern Minnesota climate stations reported a daytime high temperature of 90 degrees F or greater. Even the overnight temperature remained in the 70s F at Gaylord.

Outlook The weather will be sunny and warm on Saturday with many areas seeing temperatures in the 60s and 70s F. There will be increasing cloudiness on Sunday with a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially after 4pm. Continue chance for showers early Monday, then dry for a few days. Temperatures will cool down a bit but still be near seasonal normals next week, warming towards the end of the week.

April weather update Minnesota WeatherTalk, April 26, 2019 By Mark Seeley

Rains continued to fall over the past week, especially in southwestern counties. Many areas have accumulated over 6 inches of precipitation so far this month. Lake Wilson (Murray County) has seen nearly 7 inches. In fact, the southwestern counties with an average total over 4.30 inches are already in the top ten wettest Aprils in that part of the state. Yet more precipitation is expected on Saturday, and again on Sunday night and Monday before we close out the month on Tuesday.

Things I thought I would never see At some recent public meetings about climate change in Minnesota I was asked by members of the audience to describe some characteristic changes in weather and climate that I never thought I would see. After contemplating for a while, I came up with a brief list:

- A 100°F reading at Ada, MN on April 21, 1980, along with zero precipitation that month - 80°F dew points in MN, starting in 1983 - 10” of rain in six hours at MSP, July 23, 1987 - 44 days of 90 F temperatures in the summer of 1988 in - 110” of snowfall at Moorhead, MN 1996-1997 - 15.10” of rain at Hokah, MN August 19, 2007 - 23.86 ” of rain at Hokah, MN August, 2007 - 134°F Heat Index at Moorhead, MN July 19, 2011 - 121 mph straight line wind at Donaldson, MN, September 1, 2011 - 50.8” of snow in April at Duluth, MN (2013) - 17.2” of snow at Dodge Center, May 1-2, 2013 - 60.21” inches of precipitation at Harmony in 2018

I am sure there were more surprises than listed here, but not room enough for all of them. Perhaps you too recall some total surprises in your own Minnesota experience.

Weekly Weather Potpourri For those interested in wind climatology around the USA NOAA has a Map Viewer which will depict average wind speed by month and plot it on a map. You can even access historical data to view.

Cyclone Kenneth made landfall on Mozambique this week. It is one of the strongest storms on record to hit that country and the continuing rainfall could bring catastrophic flooding over the coming days. Elsewhere in the Southern Indian Ocean Cyclone Lorna

was churning away east of Diego Garcia but expected to remain out to sea.

Ireland, Southwestern England, and Wales were bracing for Storm Hannah to arrive this Friday and Saturday. The storm is a deep Atlantic low-pressure system with winds over 60 mph, large seas, and heavy rains.

MPR listener question With all of the heavy rains we have been having in Minnesota this month, I wondered what is the record amount for one day in April?

Answer On today’s date (April 26) in 1954 it rained 6.90 inches at Morris, which is the most recorded for a single day in April. Naturally, there was flooding that day as well. The all- time wettest months of April in Minnesota were in 1896 and 2001 when over 5 inches occurred in most places.

Twin Cities Almanac for April 26th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 63 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 42 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for April 26th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 85 degrees F in 1970; lowest daily maximum temperature of 32 degrees F in 1950; lowest daily minimum temperature is 26 degrees F in 1950; highest daily minimum temperature of 60 degrees F in 1990; record precipitation of 1.46 inches in 2011; and there was a record 3.0 inches of snowfall in 1893.

Average dew point for April 26th is 36 degrees F, with a maximum of 61 degrees F in 1990 and a minimum of 6 degrees F in 1933.

All-time state records for April 26th The state record high temperature for this date is 94 degrees F Marshall (Lyon County) in 1962. The state record low temperature for this date is 8 degrees F at Embarrass (St Louis County) in 2002. State record precipitation for this date is 6.90 inches at Morris (Stevens County) in 1954; and record snowfall is 16.0 inches at Pelican Rapids (Otter Tail County) in 2008.

Past Weather Features April 26, 1893 brought a late season snowstorm that dropped 5 to 15 inches of snow across central portions of the state. Farmers had not yet started to plant because the month was so wet.

By far the warmest April 26th in state history was in 1962 when most communities saw afternoon temperatures climb into the 80s F, and at least a dozen climate stations reach 90 degrees F or higher.

Outlook Cool on Saturday with a chance for mixed precipitation across the southern half of the state. In the southeastern counties some significant snow is expect on Saturday morning. Drier on Sunday but increasing cloudiness for Sunday night and Monday with a chance for more rain. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal, only gradually warming towards the end of the week.

April Climate Summary Minnesota WeatherTalk, May 03, 2019 By Mark Seeley

For the second consecutive year the month of April was cool, ranging from 1 to 4 degrees F cooler than normal for most climate stations in Minnesota. Extremes for the month ranged from -6°F at Marshall on the 14th to 86°F at Windom, Waseca, and Winnebago on the 22nd. Though it was a cool month, Minnesota reported the nation’s lowest temperature on only two days during the month.

April was wetter than normal around the state, especially so in southwestern and southeastern counties. The state average total precipitation was nearly 3 inches making it the 16th wettest April in history. In south-central counties it was the 9th wettest April in history with an average precipitation of 4.75 inches, while in southwestern counties it was the 4th wettest April with average precipitation of 5.40 inches. Lake Wilson (Murray County) reported its wettest April in history at 7.55 inches, while Lamberton (Redwood County) reported its 3rd wettest April with a total of 5.91 inches. As a result of all the precipitation farm field work made little progress during the month.

Most observers reported at least a few inches of snowfall during the month. The largest amounts occurred along the north shore of Lake Superior and in west-central Minnesota. Madison and Dawson in Lac Qui Parle County and Milan (Chippewa County) all reported over 20 inches of snow for the month, while Grand Marais reported 26.4 inches, their snowiest April.

April is most commonly the windiest month of the year in Minnesota. It was indeed so this year, with 5 or more days producing wind gusts over 40 mph around the state. Some reported wind gusts over 60 mph during the winter storm of April 11-12.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Tropical Cyclone Fani was moving through the Bay of Bengal and up the east coast of India this week packing winds over 130 mph and producing seas waves of 45 to 50 feet. Over a million people were being evacuated from low lying coastal regions. It has the potential to be the worst cyclone to strike India in 20 years. It will undoubtedly bring heavy rains (6-12 inches), high winds, and huge coastal surge over Friday and Saturday.

This week NOAA features an article about Understanding Antarctic Sea Ice Extent. The fluctuations in Arctic Sea Ice are less complicated than those of the Antarctic (a much bigger ice sheet). The reasons behind the complicated picture of sea ice in the Southern Hemisphere are explained.

The BBC reported this week that a study by the UK Committee on Climate Change 54

(CCC) has found that with the proper incentives and deployment of technology the United Kingdom could achieve a “net zero emissions” goal for carbon dioxide by the year 2050.

Onboard machine learning and compact thermal imaging could turn satellites into real- time fire management tools to help officials on the ground. Inspired by the Camp Fire that was so destructive in California last November and a similar fire that flared up at Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada in May 2016, researchers wondered if satellite-based remote sensing could help. Sure, enough it can. You can read more in EOS from the AGU this week.

MPR listener question I heard it was snowing Thursday morning at International Falls, MN. How common on May snowfalls in that northern city?

Answer The climate history shows that it snows during the month of May about 75 percent of all years at International Falls, MN. In fact, in 1954 and 2008 it snowed on 9 separate days during the month of May. In 1954 they reported 13 inches of snow at International Falls. So, this is not uncommon at all.

Twin Cities Almanac for May 3rd The average MSP high temperature for this date is 66 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 45 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for May 3rd MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 93 degrees F in 1949: lowest daily maximum temperature of 35 degrees F in 1954; lowest daily minimum temperature is 18 degrees F in 1967; highest daily minimum temperature of 65 degrees F in 1959; record precipitation of 1.72 inches in 1912; and there was a record 0.5 inches of snowfall in 2013.

Average dew point for May 3rd is 39 degrees F, with a maximum of 66 degrees F in 1949 and a minimum of 12 degrees F in 2005.

All-time state records for May 3rd The state record high temperature for this date is 97 degrees F Bird Island (Renville County) and Willmar (Kandiyohi County) in 1949. The state record low temperature for this date is 6 degrees F at Crookston (Polk County) in 1967. State record precipitation for this date is 4.00 inches at Albert Lea (Freeborn County) in 1902; and record snowfall is 12.0 inches at Leonard (Clearwater County) in 1954.

Past Weather Features The first three days of May 1902 brought thunderstorms and heavy rains to southern Minnesota. Many climate stations reported from 2.50 to 5 inches of rain. Blooming Prairie in Dodge County reported 5.35 inches, while Albert Lea reported 6.10 inches of rain.

The hottest May 3rd in history was in 1949 when over 60 Minnesota communities reported afternoon highs in the 90s F. Redwood Falls reported a low temperature of only 69°F.

The coldest May 3rd was in 1967. A fresh coating of May snow over the first few days of the month ushered in some cold polar air mass which dropped low temperatures into the teens and single digits. Waseca saw a low of just 19 degrees F, while in Polk County of northwestern Minnesota the temperature over 2 inches of fresh-fallen snow was just 6°F.

Outlook It will be sunny, breezy, and warm on Saturday then increasing cloudiness throughout the rest of the weekend and into Monday and Tuesday with cooler than normal temperatures and chances for scattered showers. It will be drier on Wednesday but another chance for showers for Thursday with persistently cooler than normal temperatures.

Heavy rains and snow this week Minnesota WeatherTalk, May 10, 2019 By Mark Seeley

Wednesday, May 8, brought from 1 to 2 inches of rain to many parts of the state in a storm that last for many hours. Late in the day the precipitation turned to snow in many northern communities dropping from 2 to 10 inches in portions of northeastern Minnesota. This was a distinctly untimely storm as many spring road projects had begun with excavations and Minnesota farmers were busy trying to plant crops.

Several climate stations reported new daily record amounts of rainfall, including: 2.10” at Stillwater 1.92” at Spring Valley 1.87” at Rosemount 1.84” at Faribault 1.65” at Zumbrota and Red Wing 1.60” at Marshall

The evening snowstorm turned out to be record-setting for many communities as well. Those reporting new record daily snowfall amounts included: 8.3” at Duluth 6.6” at Wright (Carlton County) 6.0” at Cloquet (Carlton County), Isabella (Lake County), and Isle (Aitkin County) 5.0” at Wolf Ridge (Lake County) 2.0” at Babbitt and Cotton (St Louis County)

The snow was relatively short-lived as temperatures climbed into the mid-40s to low 50s F on May 9th.

Big Temperature Swings in May Explained For many locations in Minnesota, May is the month with the largest average daily temperature range, typically 20 to 30 degrees F (difference between the daily maximum and minimum). What causes this? Several factors come to mind.

Crops are rarely fully leafed out, so much of the landscape is still composed of bare soil, which more readily stores heat during the day and surrenders it at night. Perennial vegetation is not yet fully utilizing soil moisture since it is still relatively early in the growing season. Therefore, the release of water vapor into the atmosphere by actively growing vegetation is somewhat limited. Sun elevation angle is increasing, as is day length, providing the sun with more time to heat the Earth's surface. The change in

air masses that accompanies a frontal passage can still be rather dramatic in May,

modifying the air temperature significantly in just a few hours.

Though these are all good reasons to expect a relatively large range in daily temperatures, I think one of the primary factors is water vapor. The difference between average air temperature and average dew point (the temperature at which the air is saturated) is large during May and the relatively drier air can heat and cool more readily as a result. Dew points have been as low as 0°F in May. Western locations in the state show many days with daily temperature ranges in May of 40 to 50 degrees F. An example is Milan, in Chippewa County. On May 16, 1934, a chilly morning low of 34 degrees F was recorded, followed hours later by an afternoon high of 100 degrees F.....a rise of 66 degrees F. The dew point was only in the mid-30s F that day. More recently at Granite Falls on May 19, 2009 the temperature climbed from 47°F to 99°F under bright sunny skies and dew points in the 30s F.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Tropical Cyclone Lili formed northwest of Darwin, Australia this week, but it is expected to remain relatively week and remain out to sea meandering towards East Timor through the weekend.

Earlier in the week Maldura in Victoria, Australia was swept over by a blinding dust storm with winds over 50 mph. Dust covered everything and traffic was stopped in many areas.

A new study from researchers in the United Kingdom finds that abrupt climate change some 8,000 years ago led to a dramatic decline in early South American populations. You can read more about this study from Nature International Reports.

This week the AGU-EOS newsletter reports that the U.S. House of Representatives approved legislation that directs President Donald Trump to honor the nation’s commitments under the 2015 Paris climate agreement, despite Trump’s earlier pledge to withdraw the United States from the accord. This legislation was passed on May 2nd. The Climate Action Now, formally known as House Resolution 9, requires the administration to develop and update the nation’s plan to meet its “nationally determined contribution” (NDC) under the Paris Agreement.

MPR listener question Last week you said that May snowfalls in northern Minnesota were fairly common. Which northern Minnesota locations have had June snowfalls?

Answer The following climate stations have reported June snowfalls: International Falls, Mizpah, Virginia, Grand Rapids, Grand Portage, Tower, Babbitt, and Hibbing. All of these were in the first 5 days of the month.

Twin Cities Almanac for May 10th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 68 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 47 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for May 10th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 90 degrees F in 1987: lowest daily maximum temperature of 43 degrees F in 1902; lowest daily minimum temperature is 28 degrees F in 1907; highest daily minimum temperature of 68 degrees F in 1922; record precipitation of 1.40 inches in 1986; and there was a trace of snowfall on this date in 1966.

Average dew point for May 10th is 40 degrees F, with a maximum of 70 degrees F in 2011 and a minimum of 14 degrees F in 1981.

All-time state records for May 10th The state record high temperature for this date is 97 degrees F Beardsley (Big Stone County) in 1928. The state record low temperature for this date is 11 degrees F at Pine River (Cass County) in 1905. State record precipitation for this date is 4.27 inches at Wheaton (Traverse County) in 1920; and record snowfall is 6.0 inches at Pigeon River Bridge (Cook County) in 1927.

Past Weather Features On May 10, 1902, a fast-moving late season snowstorm swept across northern Minnesota depositing 4 to 5 inches of snowfall in many areas. The swath of snow extended from Fergus Falls to Warroad, and across the northeast to Grand Portage.

May 10, 1987 was arguably the warmest in state history with over 50 climate stations reporting afternoon high temperatures in the 90s F.

Strong thunderstorms brought heavy rains and even some hail to portions of southern and central Minnesota over May 9-10, 2004. Strong winds were measured as well with gusts over 50 mph. Many citizens captured photos of the tall anvil-shaped clouds in the early evening as they passed to the east.

Outlook 59

Cloudiness will increase later on Saturday and continue into early Sunday with a chance for rain. Monday will be dry with climbing temperatures reaching normal values for this time of year. Later on, Tuesday there will be another chance for showers and thunderstorms, then drier for and warmer (above normal temperatures for Wednesday- Friday.

Cool and Wet Pattern to Prevail Minnesota WeatherTalk, May 17, 2019 By Mark Seeley

So far this year 62-65% of all the calendar days have brought temperatures that are below normal. The late spring has taxed everyone’s patience, but especially gardeners and farmers.

The temperature in the Twin Cities finally reached 82 degrees F on May 16 this week, the first such reading since last September 17th, a period of 240 days. If you think that seems like a long time, the climate history in the Twin Cities shows that from September 17, 1911 to June 22, 1912 there were no days with temperatures of 82 degrees F or higher, a period of 280 days, 77 percent of a year.

Nocturnal thunderstorms on Wednesday night this week brought a half inch to an inch of rain to portions of southeastern Minnesota. Many were awakened by the thunder and lightning, a precursor to what is expected this coming weekend.

The new seasonal outlook for the USA released on Thursday (May 16) suggests that for our region of the country we will see a cooler and wetter than normal climate pattern prevail across most of the state. This is further reinforced by history which shows that a strong prevalence of cooler than normal temperatures throughout the spring is most often a precursor to a cooler than normal growing season (something we refer to as a serial correlation). It is not a guarantee by any means, but the probability is certainly stacked in favor of cooler and wetter. Remember too, that a majority of the recent growing seasons in Minnesota have been warmer and wetter.

Weekly Weather Potpourri NOAA announced this week that the most recent 12-months (May 2018 to April 2019) have been the wettest in the history of our country (at least in the instrumental record which dates to the late 19th Century). Of course, there was great variability across the country with areas that recorded normal precipitation, and even below normal precipitation in parts of the Northwest. There were also many geographic areas that saw the largest ever amount of precipitation over the 12-month period including, all of northern Iowa and most of southwestern Minnesota. This wet anomaly kept most Minnesota watersheds running at high volume throughout most of the period.

According to BBC News North Korea is suffering from one of the worst droughts in years, with severely diminished crop production expected. North Korea's state media outlet KCNA said 54.4mm (2 in) of rain fell throughout the country in the first five months of the year. It said this was the lowest level recorded since 1982.

University Corporation for Atmospheric Research helped produce a baseball video 61

cartoon analogy to explain how greenhouse gases enhance the atmospheric ability to produce extremes of weather. It is a good video to use in educating children in the primary grades of school.

MPR listener question We were excited to see our first 80-degree F day in Roseville this week and wondered if May always brings at least one such day, or has there ever been a May with zero 80 F days?

Answer Actually, it is somewhat rare not to see an 80 F temperature in May here in the Twin Cities. The last time this happened was 2005, and the time before that was 1983. But in the far past it happened with greater frequency. Other years include 1873, 1878, 1882, 1883, 1888, 1892, 1893, 1905, 1910, 1924, and 1935.

Twin Cities Almanac for May 17th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 70 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 49 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for May 17th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 93 degrees F in 1987: lowest daily maximum temperature of 46 degrees F in 1890; lowest daily minimum temperature is 31 degrees F in 1915; highest daily minimum temperature of 69 degrees F in 1911; record precipitation of 1.81 inches in 2017; and there was a trace snowfall in 1890.

Average dew point for May 17th is 45 degrees F, with a maximum of 69 degrees F in 1996 and a minimum of 17 degrees F in 2009.

All-time state records for May 17th The state record high temperature for this date is 100 degrees F New Ulm (Brown County) in 1934. The state record low temperature for this date is 14 degrees F at St Vincent (Kittson County) in 1888. State record precipitation for this date is 4.43 inches at Blue Earth (Faribault County) in 2000; and record snowfall is 12.0 inches at St Cloud (Stearns County) in 1890.

Word of the Week: Astraphobia This term derives from the Greek words astrape meaning lightning and phobia meaning fear. It is the morbid fear of lightning and thunder. Certainly, lightning should be feared, unfortunately some people who suffer from this disease are completely incapacitated by storms which bring lightning and thunder. Incidentally, climatology shows that the highest frequency of thunderstorms occurs in June across Minnesota.

Past Weather Features Far and away the warmest May 17th in state history occurred in 1934. Over 30 climate stations reported daytime highs of 90 degrees F or greater. It was just one hot day in a long hot month, the 2nd warmest month of May in state history.

An unusual storm brought 1 to 4 inches of snowfall across portions of northern Minnesota on May 17, 1968. Some fishermen on Lake of the Woods and Rainy Lake were seen in their boats reeling in fish while it was snowing. Only in Minnesota!

Outlook Cool and wet is the theme throughout the weekend. It should be drier on Monday, but then a chance for rain returns for Tuesday through Thursday of next week. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will bring significant amounts of rainfall to many areas over the next week. Drier weather should return by Friday with temperatures slowly climbing back closer to normal.

Wet Pattern Continues Minnesota WeatherTalk, May 24, 2019 By Mark Seeley

Normal May rainfall values around the state range from a little under 3 inches to a little over 4 inches. Yet, after the first three weeks of the month over 110 climate stations report a total of over 4 inches for this month. Climate stations at Kimball and Melrose (both in Stearns County) report over 6 inches for the month so far. Earlier this week on Sunday, May 19th the observer at Grand Meadow (Mower County) in southeastern Minnesota reported rainfall of 3.25 inches, a new statewide daily record amount for that date (breaking the record of 2.90 inches at Littlefork back in 2007).

Year-to-date precipitation totals are getting to be quite impressive in many areas of the state. Let’s take a few examples to illustrate. Marshall (Lyon County), Lake Wilson (Murray County), Faribault (Rice County), and Caledonia (Houston County) all report over 16 inches of precipitation so far this year (January 1 – May 22). Here are their normals for the January-May period historically, along with the total annual average for precipitation:

Marshall normal precipitation Jan-May = 9.48”; average annual precipitation 28.28” Lake Wilson normal precipitation Jan-May=9.78”; average annual precipitation 28.82” Faribault normal precipitation Jan-May=10.38”; average annual precipitation 32.63” Caledonia normal precipitation Jan-May=11.92”; average annual precipitation 36.93”

With the year 2019 off to such a wet start it may be wise to remember that last year was the first time in history Minnesota climate stations measured a total annual precipitation value of 60 inches or greater. This occurred at Harmony (Fillmore County), MN which reported 60.21” Looks like another wet year may be in store.

Report on Lake Ice-Out Pete Boulay of the Minnesota State Climatology Office filed a report this week on 2019 lake ice-out dates around the state. In general ice-out dates were later than average, generally from 3-7 days later. The range in ice-out dates this year was March 28th for Lake Pepin and May 18th for Greenwood Lake in Cook County.

Weekly Weather Potpourri It was a busy week for NOAA’s Severe Storms Prediction Center. Over the period from May 17-23 over 170 tornadoes were reported mostly in OK, AR, MO, and KS. Seven deaths were attributed to these storms. There were also reports of flashfloods from heavy thunderstorms, mostly in Oklahoma. You can find these reports at the SPC web site.

A new study of UK lake sediment records stretching back over several centuries has found that the floods that hit Northern England in 2009 and 2015 ('Storm Desmond'),were the largest in 600 years, pointing to the impact of climate changes on the frequency and magnitude of these extreme events. You can read more at the Science Daily web site.

Arctic sea ice extent during April 2019 was the lowest in the 41-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), and was at record-low levels every day of the month. The previous low April extent occurred in 2016. However, springtime sea ice conditions are usually not a strong predictor of the summer ice cover because atmospheric circulation patterns in summer can flip; relatively cool and cloudy weather this summer would prevent a record-low summer for sea ice extent. NSIDC also reported that Antarctic sea ice extent during April 2019 was the second lowest in the 41-year satellite record, behind the record-low year of 2017.

MPR listener question I heard that Duluth set a new monthly snowfall record this month. What was it, and by how much did it break the old record?

Answer Duluth has reported 13.3 inches of snowfall so far this May, a new record. The old record was 8.1 inches in May of 1954.

MPR listener question We are traveling north for the Memorial Weekend and I see that the forecast calls for morning lows in the 30s F across the north on Memorial Day. Has it ever snowed on Memorial Day in Minnesota?

Answer Indeed, it has. There have been at least two documented occurrences of Memorial Day snows. One was on May 30, 1897 at Bemidji (Beltrami County) and one was on May 25, 1992 at New Ulm (Brown County). The one in New Ulm was a real surprise, as late May snowfalls were more common in the distant past and not in the modern era.

Twin Cities Almanac for May 24th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 72 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 51 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for May 24th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 95

degrees F in 2010: lowest daily maximum temperature of 49 degrees F in 1893; lowest daily minimum temperature is 32 degrees F in 1925; highest daily minimum temperature of 72 degrees F in 2010; record precipitation of 1.27 inches in 1937; and there was a record snowfall of 0.1 inches in 1925.

Average dew point for May 24th is 48 degrees F, with a maximum of 71 degrees F in 1989 and a minimum of 20 degrees F in 1934.

All-time state records for May 24th The state record high temperature for this date is 98 degrees F at Beardsley (Big Stone County) in 1928. The state record low temperature for this date is 18 degrees F at Mora (Kanabec County) in 1988. State record precipitation for this date is 4.91 inches at St Francis (Anoka County) in 2012; and record snowfall is 1.0 inches at Pigeon River Bridge (Cook County) in 1930.

Past Weather Features A very hot day on May 24, 1926 with over 20 climate stations reporting daytime highs in the 90s F. Morris, MN residents had a “maximum wardrobe day”, starting out at 29°F in the morning and climbing to 90°F by 4pm in the afternoon on May 25th.

On May 24, 1988 brought a frost to many parts of northern Minnesota where morning temperatures ranged from 24°F to 32°F. After starting out at just 18°F, the Mora climate station warmed up to 71°F by the late afternoon.

Waves of thunderstorms brought heavy rains to many eastern sections of the state over May 23-24, 2012. Up and down the eastern half of the state observers reported rainfall totals of 2-4 inches. Andover (Anoka County) and Montrose (Wright County) reported over 5 inches. There were also reports of thunderstorm winds as high as 75 mph.

Outlook Mostly sunny on Saturday and Sunday with temperatures near seasonal normals, widespread 70s F. Increasing cloudiness later in the day on Sunday and a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Memorial Day (Monday). Cooler than normal temperatures prevail the rest of next week with chances for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.

Preliminary Climate Summary for May 2019 Minnesota WeatherTalk, May 31, 2019 By Mark Seeley

Cool and wet characterizes the month of May. On a statewide basis May of 2019 will rank among the 20 wettest in state history and among the 20 coolest in state history. This pattern has had significant impact on Minnesota agriculture, with only 66 percent of the state’s corn acreage planted by May 26th and only 35 percent of the soybean acreage planted. This marks the latest planting season in Minnesota on a statewide basis since 1979.

For most of the state two-thirds of the days were cooler than normal. Most climate stations reported an average monthly temperature that ranges from 3 to 5 degrees F cooler than normal. Extremes for the month range from 91°F at Moorhead on the 30th to just 18°F at Brimson and Cotton (St Louis County) on the 7th.

Precipitation was mixed with rain and snow during the month. Many areas of northern Minnesota reported from 1 to 6 inches of snow, while Duluth had the snowiest May ever with 13.3 inches. Rain dominated the southern half of the state, as most areas received from 4 to 6 inches. At least a dozen climate stations reported 7 inches or greater, while Rochester recorded 9.42 inches, their 2nd wettest May in history, only surpassed by 12.26 inches in 2013. Grand Meadow (Mower County) reported the wettest May 19th in state history with 3.25 inches in the rain gage.

All of the rain kept flow volume in most of Minnesota’s watersheds at very high levels during the month. May 24th and May 27th brought the first tornadoes of the year to the state. On May 24th two short-lived tornadoes occurred, one in Norman County and the other in Mahnomen County (produced some tree damage). On May 27th five tornadoes were reported, one in Freeborn County and four in Fillmore County, but all were short- lived. May also brought several days that produced wind gusts over 40 mph. You can read more about these storms from the State Climatology Office web site.

Recent Interview with Mary Hanson I am informed that a recent interview I did with broadcast journalist Mary Hanson will begin to air on the Metro Cable Network (MCN, Channel 6) on Monday, June 3 at 9pm. The interview is titled “Mark Seeley on Minnesota’s Changing Climate.” At various times over the next weeks and months it will air also on PACT in Duluth/Superior, as well as TPT 2.2. It is also available for viewing on YouTube.

Weekly Weather Potpourri The NOAA Storm Prediction Center received reports of over 250 tornadoes across the nation during the week of May 23-29. This pushed the monthly national total number of tornadoes for the month of May 2019 to close to 450, a very large number indeed.

A record or near-record amount of May rainfall across Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Kansas has caused widespread and near-record flooding on many rivers there. So far, eight locations have set new record river levels during this prolonged siege of heavy rain. You can read more from the Weather Underground web site.

New research reveals that recent changes in the movement of North Atlantic right whales is associated with decreased food availability and rising temperatures in Gulf of Maine's deep waters. Right whales have been showing up in unexpected places, putting the endangered species at increased risk. The study provides insights to this key issue complicating conservation efforts. This study comes from the Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences and is described on the Science Daily web site.

MPR listener question What are the fewest number of days in May with a high temperature of 70 degrees F or greater at Waseca? (from Jeff Vetsch at the University of Minnesota Southern Research and Outreach Station)

Answer Not exactly good corn growing weather this May! Before this year, the fewest number of 70°F days in May at Waseca was 7 days in both 1968 and 1983. The average number at Waseca over the 105-year climate record is 15 days. This year, including today (May 31st) it looks like it will only be 5 days, a new low.

Twin Cities Almanac for May 31st The average MSP high temperature for this date is 74 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 54 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for May 31st MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 106 degrees F in 1934: lowest daily maximum temperature of 55 degrees F in 1962; lowest daily minimum temperature is 33 degrees F in 1889; highest daily minimum temperature of 75 degrees F in 1934; record precipitation of 2.39 inches in 1965; and no snow has fallen on this date.

Average dew point for May 31st is 50 degrees F, with a maximum of 73 degrees F in 1961 and a minimum of 27 degrees F in 2009.

All-time state records for May 31st The state record high temperature for this date is 112 degrees F at Maple Plain (Hennepin County) in 1934. The state record low temperature for this date is 19 degrees F at Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) in 1889. State record precipitation for this date is 4.92 inches at Maple Plain (Hennepin County) in 1888; and record snowfall is 4.6 inches at Virginia (St Louis County) in 1946.

Past Weather Features May 31, 1897 brought a hard freeze to many areas of the state. Over 30 climate stations reported morning low temperatures in the 20s F, 22°F at Milan and Campbell. It was in the 20s F as far south as Grand Meadow and Fairmont. A good deal of crop damage was reported. The high temperature at Park Rapids never rose above 44°F.

By far the warmest May 31st in state history was in 1934. Over 50 climate stations reported an afternoon temperature of 100°F or higher. Even the nighttime temperature never fell below 82°F at Redwood Falls.

On May 31, 1946 a rare Memorial Day snowstorm dumped 1 to 4 inches on northeastern Minnesota communities. The morning temperatures were in the 20s and 30s F, but by the next day they climbed into the 60s and 70s F.

Outlook Mostly sunny skies over the weekend, but with temperatures a few degrees cooler than normal to start out the month of June. It should be dry until later in the day on Tuesday when there will be increasing cloudiness and a chance for showers and thunderstorms. A warming trend early next week will bring temperatures back closer to normal, and above normal by later in the week.

Severe Thunderstorms Lead Off June Minnesota WeatherTalk, June 07, 2019 By Mark Seeley

June 4th brought some severe thunderstorms to Minnesota with some of them producing hail, strong winds and heavy rainfalls of 1.5 to 3 inches. There were over 25 reports of large hail (1” to 2” diameters0, and in Dodge and Hubbard Counties hail stones as large as tennis balls were observed. There were over 30 reports of strong winds associated with these thunderstorms, some with gusts from 60 to 80 mph. In Henderson (Le Sueur County) a wind gust of 85 mph was reported. There was a very brief tornado touch down in Olmsted County southwest of Rochester, with some significant damage to a home reported there.

These storms brought widespread rainfall amounts from 0.25 inches up to 1 inch. However, some climate stations reported new daily record amounts, including: Grand Meadow 2.40” Lakeville 2.11” Cloquet 2.04” Spring Valley 1.50” Two Harbors 1.10”

With some dry days this week, the acreage of soybeans planted across the state is now well over 50 percent, still very much behind normal. But more dry days are ahead.

Weekly Weather Potpourri NOAA features an interesting article this week about the Heat Wave that engulfed the southeastern states over the recent Memorial Weekend. Daytime temperature broke the century mark across portions of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.

In this week’s AGU-EOS newsletter there is an interesting discussion about new technologies that are being considered to accurately measure precipitation in urban areas and oceans of the world. Where traditional rain gauge deployment is problematic, scientists are considering other ways to measure precipitation.

The national climate report from NOAA-NCEI said the country's average May precipitation total was 4.41 inches, 1.50 inches above the 20th-century average (1901- 2000) and only 0.03 inches shy of the nation's all-time wettest month of May 2015 (4.44 inches) in records dating to January 1895. Record or near-record precipitation was observed in May from the West Coast to the central Plains, Great Lakes, and parts of the northern mid-Atlantic region. Kansas, Nebraska, and Missouri all experienced their wettest May on record, NOAA said. Seven additional states – Arizona, Illinois, Iowa, Nevada, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Utah – ranked among their five wettest Mays.

MPR listener question Is it true that since the drought of 2012 we have had a run of wetter than normal years in Minnesota?

Answer Indeed, this is true. We have had six consecutive years with above normal precipitation across the state, with 2016 being one of the wettest years in Minnesota history We have also recorded above normal rainfall in five of the past six growing seasons (May- September). So, the pattern of this year is following the trend.

Twin Cities Almanac for June 7th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 76 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 56 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for June 7th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 103 degrees F in 2011: lowest daily maximum temperature of 55 degrees F in 1901; lowest daily minimum temperature is 35 degrees F in 1998; highest daily minimum temperature of 78 degrees F in 2011; record precipitation of 2.91 inches in 1984; and no snow has fallen on this date.

Average dew point for June 7th is 54 degrees F, with a maximum of 72 degrees F in 1914 and a minimum of 30 degrees F in 1938.

All-time state records for June 7th The state record high temperature for this date is 103 degrees F at MSP (Hennepin County) and at Little Falls (Morrison County) in 2011. The state record low temperature for this date is 22 degrees F at Tower (St Louis County) in 1897. State record precipitation for this date is 4.33 inches at Springfield (Brown County) in 1962; and there has been no snowfall on this date.

Past Weather Features June 7, 1897 brought a frost morning to many parts of Minnesota. Morning lows were in the 20s F across portions of western and northern Minnesota. Resulting crop damage caused farmers to have to replant potatoes and corn.

A series of severe thunderstorms over June 5-8, 1941 brought flash flooding to many parts of the Red River Valley. Many climate stations reported 3-6 inches of rainfall. Portions of Pennington County received over 6 inches and many rural roads were closed due to flooding. A number of farm fields had to be replanted.

June 7, 1987 and 1988 brought back-to-back Heat Waves with temperatures in the 90s at most locations around the state. Both years were very dry as well, so crops were put under drought stress early in both of those growing seasons.

Outlook Warm and sunny to start the weekend, then increasing cloudiness for Saturday night and Sunday with a chance for thunderstorms. Cooler temperatures Sunday and continuing much of next week with nighttime lows in the 40s and 50s F (good sleeping weather). Another chance for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Two June Frosts in the North Minnesota WeatherTalk, June 14, 2019 By Mark Seeley

After seeing widespread frosts across northern Minnesota on the second of June (many morning low temperatures in the 20s F), June 13th brought widespread temperature readings in the 30s F around the state and delivered a second round of frosts to northern counties this week. Cotton, Celina, Crane Lake, Cook, Embarrass, Eveleth, Bigfork, Floodwood, Wright, Hibbing, Aitkin, and Cloquet climate stations all reported frost on Thursday morning.

This is a bit unusual in that places like Hibbing, Cotton, and Bigfork usually see one frost in the month of June, but not very often two or more frosts. Back in 1964 some northern climate stations reported 4 frosts during the month of June, while in June of 2004 Embarrass reported 11 frosts, probably a statewide record number.

Weekly Weather Potpourri This week NOAA announced that its flagship weather forecast model, the Global Forecast System (GFS) was given a significant upgrade to include a new dynamical core. This will provide improved forecasts of severe weather, winter storms, and tropical cyclone intensity and track. You can read more about this at the NOAA web site.

Additionally this week NOAA scientists issued a forecast for the Gulf of Mexico “dead zone” to expand and be larger than normal this summer. This hypoxic zone, mostly off the coast of Louisiana is the result of excess nutrient pollution from human activities, such as urbanization and agriculture, occurring throughout the Mississippi River watershed. It waxes and wanes in size each year, but is expected to be larger than normal in 2019 as a result of the excess of spring precipitation and high volume flows through the Mississippi River Basin.

This week the Minnesota DNR reported that streamflow conditions in May were similar to those of April with high volume flow in most watersheds of the southern two-thirds of the state. In addition, eighty-four percent of gaged lakes showed May lake elevations above their average lake level of the entire historic record. Over 70% of these "above average" lakes reported lake elevations more than ½ foot higher than their average elevation. Thirty lakes reached their highest reported May lake level with locations in Becker, Beltrami, Cass, Chisago, Crow Wing, Isanti, Martin, Morrison, Otter Tail, Pine, Pope, Swift, and Washington Counties.

MPR listener question With the reports of frosts this month in many areas of Minnesota, we were wondering what are the coldest temperatures ever measured in the state during June?

Answer Believe it or not, there have been two years when low temperatures in the teens F have been reported during the month of June. On June 1, 1964 observers at Wannaska, Cook, Bigfork, and Baudette reported morning lows ranging from 15°F to 19°F. Then on June 5, 1985 Remer (Cass County) reported a morning low of just 18°F. Suffice to say that gardeners were extremely disappointed with these temperatures.

Twin Cities Almanac for June 14th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 79 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 59 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for June 14th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 98 degrees F in 1987: lowest daily maximum temperature of 60 degrees F in 1917; lowest daily minimum temperature is 44 degrees F in 1927; highest daily minimum temperature of 73 degrees F in 1893; record precipitation of 2.48 inches in 1924; and no snow has fallen on this date.

Average dew point for June 14th is 56 degrees F, with a maximum of 74 degrees F in 1981 and a minimum of 33 degrees F in 1961.

All-time state records for June 14th The state record high temperature for this date is 105 degrees F at Montevideo (Chippewa County) in 1979. The state record low temperature for this date is 27 degrees F at Alborn (St Louis County) in 1927. State record precipitation for this date is 5.70 inches at Fosston (Polk County) in 1921; and no snowfall has occurred on this date.

Past Weather Features Many northern Minnesota climate stations reported frost on June 14, 1927 when it remained cold all day. The high temperature at Littlefork (Koochiching County) only made it to 53°F.

The hottest June 14th in state history was in 1979. Over 20 communities reported a daytime high of 100°F or greater.

June 12-16, 1983 saw a series of thunderstorms produce hail and heavy rains across much of Minnesota. Many areas reported 3 to 5 inches of rainfall with flash flooding in some areas. Portions of Stearns and Kandiyohi Counties reported over 4 inches of rainfall on the 14th, ruining a crop of freshly cut hay.

Outlook A cooler than normal weather pattern will remain in play throughout the weekend with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Drier weather by Monday, but then a chance for showers and thunderstorms again Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal much of next week.

Rains and Hail on June 20th Minnesota WeatherTalk, June 21, 2019 By Mark Seeley

Thunderstorms rolled across the state on Thursday, June 20th dropping mostly lighter amounts of rainfall, ranging from a quarter to a half inch. However, some areas received well over an inch including Redwood Falls, Sleepy Eye, Howard Lake, and Buffalo. Around Owatonna they reported over 2 inches. Reports of widely scattered large hail came from Yellow Medicine, Watonwan, and Martin Counties, and a relatively short- lived tornado touched down in Redwood County near Clements. The rain showers were welcome in some of the drier northwestern areas.

Historical Summer Solstice Traumatic Events I thought I would spend this week remembering two famous weather-related historical events that occurred on the Summer Solstice (longest day of the year).

The most recent one was June 21st of 1992 when southern Minnesota recorded its only summer solstice frost in history. Following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991, much of the northern hemisphere reported one of the coldest summers of the century in 1992. For Minnesota summer of 1992 (June-August) was the 2nd coldest in history (1915 was just 0.3°F colder), and July of 1992 was the coldest in history by far, fully 7.0°F colder than average. The night of June 20-21, 1992 brought high pressure, clear skies, and calm winds with very dry dew points ranging from just 25 to 30 degrees F. The Twin Cities hit a record low dew point that night of only 26°F. Much of northern Minnesota saw temperatures fall into the mid to upper 20s F that night, not especially unusual for them. But in southern counties like Fillmore, Goodhue, Wabasha, and Olmsted where the corn crop was only in the 4-8 leaf stage of development, temperatures fell into the low 30sF causing widespread damage. Portions of Wisconsin suffered similar damage as well. Many farmers were aghast that frost damage would occur to their crop on the longest day of the year (roughly 16 hours of day length). Some of the corn was so damaged it was chopped for silage, while other fields were left to recover and regrow. In some fields the tops of plants were clipped off. Where the corn crop recovered there was an estimated 15 to 35 percent yield loss. This remains the one and only time that damaging frost has occurred in major crop regions of Minnesota on the longest day of the year.

The second traumatic weather-related event on the summer solstice in Minnesota is the F-5 tornado (winds over 260 mph) which struck Fergus Falls between 4:30 and 5:00 pm on June 22, 1919. The previous day had brought severe thunderstorms to Otter Tail County as well dumping over 2 inches of rain and causing flash flooding. On the afternoon of June 22nd (the solstice date in 1919) temperatures climbed into the mid to upper 80s F, but the dew points were in the 70s F, producing Heat Index values in the

mid-90s F. So, the day was quite sticky and tropical. The storm rolled into town from the northwest with a funnel that was 400 yards wide. It stayed on the ground for nearly 20 miles, but went right through the heart of Fergus Falls, destroying 400 buildings, including the hospital and 228 homes. The death toll was 57, with 200 other people injured. This is one of only 8 documented F-5 tornadoes that have passed across Minnesota in the course of our weather history. In addition to the tornado damage, the storm dumped 3.50 inches of rain and large hail. Later that night, after midnight, the same thunderstorm complex passed over the Twin Cities bringing high winds and heavy rains (2.33 inches of rain). The storm flooded cellars, knocked out power, and downed a number of trees, but no tornado.

There is more information about the Fergus Falls tornado of 1919 on the Minnesota DNR State Climatology Office Web Site.

These are undoubtedly two of the worst episodes of damaging weather on the summer solstice and left their mark and traumatic memories with many Minnesota citizens.

Weekly Weather potpourri This week the BBC Weather Center features a nice video and explanation of the summer solstice. It might be useful to share with your children who may wonder why it is associated with the longest day of the year.

According to Bob Henson of the Weather Underground much of Western Europe is bracing for an early summer Heat Wave next week. Some areas are expected to see record-breaking high temperatures that may last for several days. Some afternoon high temperatures may reach the mid-90s F. You can read more about this at the Weather Underground website.

A recent article in the journal Science Advances documents how the Himalayan glaciers of South Asia have seen a doubling in their annual ice loss over the past two decades. These observations are based on aerial photos and satellite images and conforms with the regional warming temperatures that have been reported.

MPR listener question Given the late crop planting this year, I'm wondering whether there will be less "corn sweat" (and soybean sweat) and therefore lower humidity but also higher temperature, at least until the crops develop a full canopy.

Answer Yes, this will probably occur with respect to humidity (dew point), but I am not sure that it will mean higher temperatures. The closest analogy to this unusually late crop planting season is way back in 1979. Back in 1979 crop development was so far behind normal that maximum leaf area, or crop canopy cover was not reached until late July. At

maximum canopy cover is when the crop releases the most water vapor through transpiration. In 1979 this was evident when we saw the dew points spike in mid to late August with readings in the 70s F, and producing Heat Index values ranging from 100- 105°F. This year crop development is also lagging behind normal by a number of weeks and therefore the maximum leaf area or canopy cover for the state’s corn and soybean crops (about 14 million acres) will occur later this summer. So perhaps we won’t see 70 F dew points until August, may be at State Fair time. Minnesota farmers are certainly hoping for warmer temperatures so that crop growth and development can catch up.

Twin Cities Almanac for June 21st The average MSP high temperature for this date is 81 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 61 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for June 21st MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 95 degrees F in 1910: lowest daily maximum temperature of 59 degrees F in 1906; lowest daily minimum temperature is 39 degrees F in 1992; highest daily minimum temperature of 74 degrees F in 1943; record precipitation of 2.95 inches in 2002; and no snow has fallen on this date.

Average dew point for June 21st is 56 degrees F, with a maximum of 75 degrees F in 1986 and a minimum of 26 degrees F in 1992.

All-time state records for June 21st The state record high temperature for this date is 107 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1988. The state record low temperature for this date is 20 degrees F at Keliher (Beltrami County) in 2001. State record precipitation for this date is 5.42 inches at Itasca State Park (Clearwater County) in 1957; and no snowfall has occurred on this date.

Past Weather Features Clouds and fog persisted on June 21, 1902 keeping temperatures 20 or more degrees colder than normal across the state. Many climate stations reported daytime highs only in the 50s F. The high temperature at Park Rapids was only 56°F.

The massive, intense, and destructive thunderstorms of June 20-21, 1919 brought widespread 2.5 to 5.0 inches of rain to many parts of Minnesota. There were also many reports of large hail and crop damage.

By far the warmest June 21st in state history was in 1988. Over 70 climate stations reported daytime highs of 90°F or greater, while over 20 communities saw temperatures reach or surpass the century mark. At Worthington, the low temperature only dropped to 76°F.

Outlook Cooler than normal temperatures will prevail over the weekend along with a chance for showers and thunderstorms each day. Cloudy, with a chance for rain and temperatures in the 40s and 50s F for the runners at Grandma’s Marathon on Saturday morning. Continued chance for showers on Monday, and then a warming trend begins for next week pushing temperatures above normal with a chance for showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday. Some areas may see daytime highs from 85-90 degrees F.

Preliminary June Climate Summary Minnesota WeatherTalk, June 28, 2019 By Mark Seeley

Despite a relatively even mixture of days with above normal and below normal temperatures, most climate stations report a mean monthly temperature for June that was close to normal or from 1 to 3 degrees F above normal. Extremes for the month ranged from just 25°F at Tower on June 2nd to near 100°F on June 29. Minnesota reported the lowest temperature in the nation only twice during the month.

Rainfall for June was mostly below normal around the state, especially in north-central and northeastern counties (some communities there received less than 2 inches for the month). Southeastern Minnesota had the most rainfall with portions of Fillmore and Mower Counties getting over 7.5 inches of rain. Lanesboro climate station reported a new daily record rainfall of 2.91 inches on the 16th, and on the same date Preston reported a new daily record rainfall of 2.67 inches. On June 5th Grand Meadow reported a new daily record rainfall for the date with 2.40 inches.

Early morning hours of Friday, June 28th brought more heavy thunderstorms to southeastern Minnesota. Portions of Dodge, Goodhue, Steele, Olmsted, Fillmore, and Wabasha Counties reported 3-6 inches of rain and flooded fields and roads, some of which were closed. These rains pushed the June monthly total at Rochester Airport to 9.35 inches, their 3rd wettest June in history (behind the Junes of 1914 and 2000).

By the end of June, crop conditions had improved around the state, and major garden crops like lettuce, onions, strawberries, and rhubarb were coming along well. In southwestern Minnesota corn and soybean farmers in Brown, Redwood, Watonwan, and Martin Counties were assessing the hail damage from last week’s storms. If these damage crops are left to recover during their vegetative phase of growth, care should be taken to maintain good weed control, among other factors, according to Extension Agronomists.

Weekly Weather Potpourri NOAA features this week an example of how the city of Boston has taken a proactive approach to climate adaptation since Hurricane Sandy in 2012. The city has taken a number of strategic steps to reduce the impacts of climate and weather extremes.

The BBC Weather Centre reported on the unusual Heat Wave across Western Europe this week. Especially hard hit were portions of Spain and France where temperatures topped 104°F. Temperatures in some areas of Spain were expected to reach 112°F on Friday (June 28) setting new records for the month of June, and in France a new all-

time record high for that country was set in Gallargues-le-Montueux on Friday, June 28th with a high of 114°F.

There is an interesting article in this week’s AGU-EOS which discusses the linkage between the history and evolution of ocean tides and the Earth’s climate cycles. Weak tides were associated with the “snowball Earth” era in geologic time scales for example.

MPR listener question The forecast is for the Twin Cities to see Heat Index values of 100°F to 103°F on Saturday (June 29). How often do we get Heat Index Values that high in June?

Answer It is perhaps more frequent than you think. In the 145-year climate record for the Twin Cities the following years have produced at least one day in June with a Heat Index of 100°F or greater: 1909, 1911, 1925, 1931, 1933, 1934, 1943, 1953, 1955, 1956, 1983, 1985, 1988, 1996, 2002, 2007, 2011, and 2018.

So that is roughly 12 percent of all Junes produce such a day. The historical high range in Heat Index Values during June is from 100°F to 110°F, but we will see closer to the lower value this weekend.

Twin Cities Almanac for June 28th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 82 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 63 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for June 28th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 102 degrees F in 1931: lowest daily maximum temperature of 64 degrees F in 1923; lowest daily minimum temperature is 47 degrees F in 1924; highest daily minimum temperature of 82 degrees F in 1931; record precipitation of 2.33 inches in 1920; and no snow has fallen on this date.

Average dew point for June 28th is 59 degrees F, with a maximum of 77 degrees F in 1996 and a minimum of 33 degrees F in 1925.

All-time state records for June 28th The state record high temperature for this date is 108 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1931. The state record low temperature for this date is 24 degrees F at Sawbill Camp (Cook County) in 1936. State record precipitation for this date is 3.60 inches at Moorhead (Clay County) in 1897; and no snowfall has occurred on this date.

Past Weather Features After enduring a spring with severe snow melt flooding on the Red River of the North, residents of northwestern Minnesota were hit with strong thunderstorms and flash flooding over June 28-29, 1897. Rainfall amounts ranged from 2 to 4 inches across portions of Becker, Clay, and Normand Counties.

By far the warmest June 28th in state history was in 1931 when over 35 climate stations reported an afternoon high of 100°F or greater. The overnight temperature at Canby only “dropped” to 87°F, one of the warmest nights in state history.

June 28, 1983 brought frost to many communities in St Louis County, including Tower, Cotton, and Cook, where it was just 27 degrees F. Temperatures warmed up 50 degrees F to an afternoon high of 77°F at Cook.

Outlook Warm and muggy over the weekend with increasing cloudiness later on Sunday and a chance for thunderstorms. Some areas of the state, including the Twin Cities may be under Excessive Heat Advisories during this period, with Heat Index values ranging from 95°F to 105°F. Cooler with temperatures closer to normal for Monday-Thursday next week, but almost daily chances for scattered thunderstorms during this period.

July Starts Wet for Many Parts of Minnesota Minnesota WeatherTalk, July 05, 2019 By Mark Seeley

Thunderstorms dominated the last few days of June and the first few days of July. Heavy rains crossed a number of Minnesota counties over the first week of July, bringing over 2.5 inches to at least 60 climate stations. Redwood Falls has already reported over 5 inches for the month, while Milan, Artichoke Lake, and Northfield have reported over 4.5 inches. A number of climate stations reported new daily rainfall records for July 1st including: Redwood Falls with 5.15”, Milan with 4.50”, Bird Island with 4.14”, Canby with 3.10”, Artichoke Lake with 2.73”, Dawson with 2.70”, and Minneota with 2.67”. Then on July 2nd Windom reported a new daily record rainfall of 2.78” and Spring Valley a new daily record of 1.45”. And finally, on July 4th, Browns Valley (Traverse County) reported a new daily record rainfall with 2.10 inches.

For the year to date, both Rochester and Owatonna have reported over 30 inches of precipitation, a record-setting pace.

Corrections to June Climate Summary:

Speaking of wet, for last month Rochester reported its 4th wettest June in history with 9.08”, Preston its 6th wettest with 9.27”, and Grand Meadow its 10th wettest June with 7.78”. Within the state climate observing network, 38 new daily rainfall records were set during the month of June, including a new all-time state record amount for June 28th of 5.99” at the climate station near Rochester Airport (breaking the old record of 3.60” at Moorhead back on June 28, 1897). And BTW the highest temperature for June anywhere in the state was 98°F at Hallock (Kittson County) on the 8th.

Weekly Weather Potpourri: There is an interesting article in the current issue of the Minnesota Conservation Volunteer Magazine about the changing climate in and around Lake Superior by Amanda Kueper. Recent trends in water temperature as well as atmospheric temperature are symptoms of climate change and will have profound consequences.

NOAA released earlier this week a graphical analysis of state by state (even county by county) temperature and precipitation patterns for the past 125 years. Each graphic illustrates the departures from normal for individual years.

New research finds that irrigated farms within Wisconsin's vegetable-growing Central

Sands region significantly cool the local climate compared to nearby rain-fed farms or forests. Irrigated farms generally experienced a three- to seven-degree smaller range in daily temperatures compared to other land uses.

The Weather Channel reported this week that July 4th brought all-time record warmth to parts of Alaska. The following were all-time high temperatures for these Alaska communities:

Kenai 89°F; King Salmon 89°F; Palmer 88°F; Homer 78°F, and Anchorage 90°F The reading at Anchorage was the first time 90 degrees F has been measured.

MPR listener question:

Along with many neighbors we were trying to celebrate July 4th between rainfalls yesterday out in Lyon County around Marshall. Made us wonder what was the wettest ever July 4th holiday?

Answer:

The wettest July 4th in state history was in 1995 when Milan (Chippewa County) reported 9.78” of rain from strong thunderstorms, causing widespread flash flooding. Twelve counties reported over 3.5 inches of rain that day. In July of 1995 Milan ended up receiving 13.35 inches of rainfall.

Twin Cities Almanac for July 5th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 83 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 64 degrees F (plus or minus 6 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for July 5th:

MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 100 degrees F in 1982: lowest daily maximum temperature of 66 degrees F in 1905; lowest daily minimum temperature is 45 degrees F in 1972; highest daily minimum temperature of 79 degrees F in 2012; record precipitation of 1.62 inches in 1994; and no snow has fallen on this date.

Average dew point for July 5th is 59 degrees F, with a maximum of 77 degrees F in 1949 and a minimum of 40 degrees F in 1972.

All-time state records for July 5th The state record high temperature for this date is 108 degrees F at Pipestone (Pipestone County) in 1936. The state record low temperature for this date is 27 degrees F at Embarrass (St Louis County) in 2001. State record precipitation for this date is 6.25 inches at Albert Lea (Freeborn County) in 1943; and there has been no snowfall on this date.

Past Weather Features A line of strong thunderstorms brought heavy rains to southeaster Minnesota over July 5-6, 1978. All or portions of 8 counties received 2 to 5 inches of rainfall causing widespread flash floods. Rochester received 6.74 inches, flooding most of the downtown streets. It was the first of two flash floods in Rochester that year, with another 6-inch rain coming over September 12-13.

July 5, 1988 brought a very hot day to Minnesota. Most places saw afternoon highs reach the 90s F, and 20 climate stations reported a reading of 100°F or greater.

Conversely, July 5, 2001 brought widespread frost to northern Minnesota, as climate stations in St Louis County, Beltrami County and Morrison County reported morning low temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s F.

Outlook Cooler than normal temperatures will dominate the weekend which will mostly be dry. Temperatures will warm back up to near normal Monday and continue in that pattern for much of next week, but with chances for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning late Monday and running through Wednesday. Warmer yet by next weekend.

A Wet Week in Many Places Minnesota WeatherTalk, July 12, 2019 By Mark Seeley

Monday, July 8th brought record-setting rainfall to the Washington, D.C. area where Ronald Reagan Airport set a new daily record of 3.44 inches. Wallops Island, VA reported 3.26 inches, and Hagerstown, MD reported 2.71 inches. Flash flooding and street closures were common that day throughout the D.C. Metro Area.

Over July 8-9, 2019 many parts of northwestern Minnesota reported record or near record thunderstorm rainfall. Fargo, ND set a record with 2.20 inches, while across the border in Minnesota Georgetown (Clay County) reported a record 4.47 inches, Hallock (Kittson County) a record 3.58 inches, and Thief River Falls (Pennington County) a record 2.31 inches. Elsewhere places like Moorhead, Fergus Falls, New York Mills, Detroit Lakes, and Ottertail all reported over 2 inches.

Then on July 10th (Wednesday) bands of clouds associated with the formation of Tropical Storm Barry in the Gulf of Mexico brought 3-4 inch rains to portions of Louisiana, flooding may streets there and closing some highways.

July Rainfalls Above Normal Already The following locations in Minnesota now report above normal rainfall amounts for the entire month of July, even though only 12 days have passed.

Georgetown 7.96”, Redwood Falls 6.58”, Milan (Chippewa County) 5.71”, Artichoke Lake (Big Stone County) 5.66”, Canby (Yellow Medicine County) 5.32”, Windom (Cottonwood County) 4.98”, Hallock (Kittson County) 4.83", and Dawson (Lac Qui Parle County) 4.50”.

Weekly Weather Potpourri The NOAA-National Hurricane Center was closely monitoring Tropical Storm Barry in the Gulf of Mexico this week, as it was expected to develop into a category 1 hurricane just before landfall on Saturday. It will bring strong winds and heavy rainfall to Louisiana. Some areas of that state may see 10-15 inches of rainfall through the coming weekend.

NOAA scientists announced this week that for the period from July, 2018 to June, 2019 across the contiguous USA it was the wettest 12 month period in history. This surpassed the previous records which had been from June 2018 to May 2019, which had surpassed the previous record of from May 2018 to April of 2019. The same 12- month periods historically ranked quite high in Minnesota as well: July 2018 to June 2019 4th wettest in history

June 2018 to May 2019 tied for wettest in history (with 2010-2011) May 2018 to April 2019 3rd wettest in history All 12 month periods delivered an average 12-month precipitation well over 32 inches.

So, the widespread wet weather pattern across the country which has caused a great deal of flooding on many rivers appears to have some persistence. In 2019 many climate stations may record their wettest year.

A recent article in Nature Communications finds that according to climate model projections, even if the Paris Agreement on limiting global temperature change to 1.5°K holds, the melting of Artic Sea Ice will continue at a rapid pace and it may be ice-free during the month of September most years (end of the Northern Hemisphere summer).

With support from the National Integrated Heat Health Information System (NIHHIS) and CPO’s Communication, Education, and Engagement Division, community organizers in 8 U.S. cities are preparing to run citizen-science field campaigns to map Urban Heat Islands (UHI) this summer. Cities were selected for support based in part on their readiness to mobilize community members to run the mapping campaign and on their ability and willingness to use the heat maps produced by the campaign to build resilience to extreme heat.

NOAA recently reported that Alaska recorded its 2nd warmest June in history, following its warmest spring (March-May) in history. So far in July of 2019 Anchorage is reporting an average monthly temperature that is 11°F above normal. So, the trend continues.

MPR listener question Please settle a bet for us. What is the highest dew point temperature measured in the Twin Cities as well as the highest measured in the state? We think it has to be in July.

Answer Yes, the record dew point for the Twin Cities is 82°F measured on July 19, 2011 and on the same date a statewide record dew point of 88°F was measured at Moorehead, MN. Both occurred between 4pm and 5pm in the afternoon. In the Twin Cities climate record a dew point of 80°F or greater has only been measured on 11 dates, all but one (June 22, 1983) in the month of July.

Twin Cities Almanac for July 12th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 84 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 64 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for July 12th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 106 degrees F in 1936: lowest daily maximum temperature of 67 degrees F in 1926; lowest daily minimum temperature is 48 degrees F in 1941; highest daily minimum temperature of 83 degrees F in 1936; record precipitation of 2.93 inches in 1912; and no snow has fallen on this date.

Average dew point for July 12th is 61 degrees F, with a maximum of 80 degrees F in 1995 and a minimum of 39 degrees F in 1926.

All-time state records for July 12th The state record high temperature for this date is 111 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1936. The state record low temperature for this date is 27 degrees F at Tower (St Louis County) in 1975. State record precipitation for this date is 5.45 inches at Buffalo (Wright County) in 1961; and no snowfall has occurred on this date.

Past Weather Features The worst Heat Wave historically occurred in July of 1936, and on the 12th nearly every spot in Minnesota reported an afternoon temperature of 100°F or greater. The coldest spot in the state was 98°F at Two Harbors. It was 106°F as far north as Littlefork (Koochiching County), and the overnight low never dropped below 81°F in Itasca State Park.

One of the worst Heat Waves in the modern record occurred over July 12-14, 1995. Dew point spiked into the mid-70s to low 80s F across Minnesota, producing Heat Index Values from 105°F to 117°F over the three days. In central Minnesota there were reports of hundreds of thousands of turkeys killed by the heat. In the city of Chicago, hundreds of citizens died during this Heat Wave.

July 12-13, 1995 also brought strong thunderstorms and a derecho (straight line windstorm) to many parts of northern Minnesota. Many areas reported wind gusts of 70 mph to 100 mph. Especially hard hit was Itasca State Park where many ancient trees were uprooted or broken off by the high winds. The park had to be closed for a time. Many climate stations reported 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain.

Outlook Southerly winds and bright skies will amplify daily temperatures, keeping them above normal over the weekend and much of next week. High temperatures will be in the 90s F many places over the Sunday through Wednesday period, with overnight lows in the 60s and 70s F. Some Heat Advisories may be released by the National Weather Service during this period. There will be chances for thunderstorms later on Monday, and some widely scattered thunderstorms through next week.

High Water Vapor Content and Heavy Rains Minnesota WeatherTalk, July 19, 2019 By Mark Seeley

So far this month within the state climate observing network 30 new daily rainfall records have been set with many 4–5-inch amounts. Dew points have been above 70 degrees F on many days (approximately 100 hours at MSP), so Heat Index Values around the state have varied this week from 95°F to 107°F.

All of this water vapor has been abundant fuel for thunderstorms all month long. Over 130 climate stations report 4 or more inches of rain for the month, while at least 80 climate stations report over 5 inches. A few places have seen over 8 inches. Yet some parts of the far northern counties remain dry, with less than 1 inch of rain so far this month.

Portions of Olmsted, Dodge, Houston, and Steele Counties in southeastern Minnesota have already reported over 30 inches for the year so far and are on pace to set new annual precipitation records. For example, Rochester has reported 32.72 inches of precipitation this year, through July 17th, and that is the most through July 17th in their climate record which goes back to 1886.

Weekly Weather Potpourri NOAA features a fascinating article this week about 19th Century scientist Eunice Newton Foote. She was an amateur scientist from the mid-1800s and performed experiments which validated the discovery of Earth's greenhouse effect. Her experiments comparing the temperature within cylinders filled with different gases revealed the ability of water vapor and carbonic acid gas (carbon dioxide) to raise temperature. These studies inspired her to hypothesize that Earth would have been much warmer in the past if its carbon dioxide levels were higher.

The Washington Post featured stories by the “Capitol Weather Gang” about the extensive Heat Wave gripping much of the USA this week. Many states were expecting to see the National Weather Service issued Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings, as Heat Index values soar to 100°F or greater in many areas. They also note that in many places summer minimum temperatures are on the rise.

Several news outlets including the BBC this week have featured stories about the Heat Wave encompassing the eastern half of the USA, including Minnesota, Iowa, and Nebraska. The combination of high temperatures and high dew points is pushing Heat Index values to range from 95°F to 110°F or even higher over the period from July 18- 21. Many new high temperature records are expected to be set across several states. We will feel relief from the heat starting on Saturday night.

A total of 55 animal species in the UK have been displaced from their natural ranges or enabled to arrive for the first time on UK shores because of climate change over the last 10 years (2008-2018) -- as revealed in a new study. You can read more at the Journal of Applied Ecology.

MPR listener question If I remember correctly, July 19th is the anniversary of the hottest day in Minnesota history. Can you remind me of the Heat Index values measured that day?

Answer Yes, though the state all-time temperature records show 114.5°F at Beardsley (Big Stone County) on July 29, 1917 and 114°F at Moorhead on July 6, 1936 there was little humidity associated with those records. The hottest days in history from a Heat Index perspective were July 19-20, 2011. Here are some of the Heat Index Records set back then: 112°F at Fergus Falls; 114°F at Winona and New Ulm; 116°F at Hallock; 117°F at St Cloud; 118°F at Red Wing and Rochester; 119°F at MSP; 121°F at Austin; 123°F at Pelican Rapids; and 134°F at Moorhead. These readings were the result of temperatures in the mid to upper 90s F with dew points in the 80s F.

Twin Cities Almanac for July 19th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 84 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 64 degrees F (plus or minus 6 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for July 19th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 100 degrees F in 1977: lowest daily maximum temperature of 63 degrees F in 1902; lowest daily minimum temperature is 46 degrees F in 1873; highest daily minimum temperature of 79 degrees F in 1977; record precipitation of 1.75 inches in 1957; and no snow has fallen on this date.

Average dew point for July 19th is 61 degrees F, with a maximum of 82 degrees F in 2011 and a minimum of 41 degrees F in 1958

All-time state records for July 19th The state record high temperature for this date is 108 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1932. The state record low temperature for this date is 29 degrees F at Tower (St Louis County) in 2000. State record precipitation for this date is 8.97 inches at Fosston (Polk County) in 1909; and no snowfall has occurred on this date.

Past Weather Features Strong thunderstorms brought heavy rains and hail to portions of northwestern Minnesota over July 19-20, 1909. Rainfall amounts ranged from 3 to 11 inches, producing widespread flooding. Many farmers reported whole fields of wheat washed out.

July 19-24, 1934 produced six consecutive days of 100 degrees F or greater for many parts of Minnesota. The Heat Wave was devastating to crops that were already drought stressed. During this Heat Wave most of the state saw little rainfall, generally less than half an inch.

Frost up north in St Louis County on July 19, 2000. Many campers woke up to temperatures in the 30s F.

Outlook It will finally cool off to below normal temperatures over the weekend. There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, but mostly sunny skies Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will warm up closer to normal by Tuesday – Thursday next week, and it looks like the week will mostly be dry.

Heat Abates, But Southern Minnesota Continues Wet July Minnesota WeatherTalk, July 26, 2019 By Mark Seeley

After a week of temperatures that averaged 5-10 degrees warmer than normal with dew points in the 70s F (even some 80°F dew points), temperatures fell back to a few degrees cooler than normal much of this week, with much low dew points and humidity. It was a sharp contrast to the near record-setting Heat Index Values that occurred last Friday (July 19th) when many portions of the state experienced Heat Index Values of 110°F or greater.

Also for at least a few days, there was some relief from the heavy rainfalls of this month. Believe it or not, some portions of Dodge, Goodhue, and Blue Earth Counties have reported over 11 inches of rain this month. At least 24 other southern Minnesota climate stations have reported over 8 inches of rainfall so far this month, and so far this month 35 climate stations in the state network have reported setting or tying at least one daily rainfall record.

You can read more about this change in the weather from the Minnesota State Climatology Office.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Western Europe’s 2nd major Heat Wave of the summer settled in this week, setting widespread temperature records. The three-day Heat Wave produced some remarkable readings: 109°F in Paris, France; 106°F at Bordeaux, France; 107°F at Deelen, in the Netherlands; 107°F at Lingen, Germany; and 104°F at Kleine Brogel, Belgium. Madrid, Spain reported 7 consecutive days of daytime temperature close to 100°F. The temperature hit 100°F in Cambridge, England for only the second time in history, and Edinburgh, Scotland recorded its hottest day ever with a reading of 89 degrees F. Trains in the United Kingdom were asked to slow down to avoid derailments due to buckled tracks. A climatology institute in Potsdam, Germany, said Europe's five hottest summers since 1500 were all recorded in the 21st Century.

The Weather Underground web site provides a good overview of the heat, dryness, and wildfires that are occurring across many western states this week. Some residents near Idaho Falls, Idaho were evacuated because of a spreading fire near there. Thankfully, a better weather pattern is expected to emerge next week and assist firefighters in controlling these wildfires.

A new study from the University of Bern shows that large climate fluctuations of the past were not really global but varied from region to region. "It's true that during the Little Ice

Age it was generally colder across the whole world," explains Raphael Neukom, "but not everywhere at the same time. What we didn't know until now is that not only average global temperatures in the 20th century are higher than ever before in at least 2,000 years, but also that a warming period is now affecting the whole planet at the same time for the first time. You can read more in the journal Nature.

In this week’s AGU-EOS bulletin there is an article about how NOAA scientists have been working to improve the resolution of their climate trend analysis over both land areas and the oceans. The latest version of NOAA’s Global Surface Temperature Dataset improves coverage over land and sea and improves the treatment of historical changes in observational practices.

MPR listener question At my garden weather station in Bloomington this week, the relative humidity fell to just 35 percent. We opened the windows of the house to let the cool, dry air in and it felt great. Made us wonder what has been the lowest relative humidity historically during the month of July?

Answer Naturally, the lowest July relative humidity readings in the Twin Cities climate record are associated with drought years. In both 1934 and 1936 the relative humidity in July fell to just 19 percent. More recently in the drought years of 1988 and 2012, the July relative humidity fell to 21-22 percent. I might add that relative humidity values as low as the single digits have been observed in other months of the year, most notably October.

Twin Cities Almanac for July 26th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 83 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 64 degrees F (plus or minus 6 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for July 26th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 100 degrees F in 1955; lowest daily maximum temperature of 68 degrees F in 1972; lowest daily minimum temperature is 45 degrees F in 1962; highest daily minimum temperature of 76 degrees F in 1931; record precipitation of 2.44 inches in 1990; and no snow has fallen on this date.

Average dew point for July 26th is 60 degrees F, with a maximum of 77 degrees F in 2003 and a minimum of 37 degrees F in 1974.

All-time state records for July 26th The state record high temperature for this date is 107 degrees F at Beardsley (Big Stone County) in 1931. The state record low temperature for this date is 27 degrees F at Kelliher (Beltrami County) in 2001. State record precipitation for this date is 5.24 inches at Rochester (Olmsted County) in 1949; and no snowfall has occurred on this date.

Past Weather Features The hottest July 26th in state history was in 1931, when over 35 climate stations reported daytime highs of 100°F or greater. The nighttime low at Wheaton (Traverse County) never dipped below 81 degrees F.

A series of strong thunderstorms dropped 2.5 to 5.5 inches of rain across portions of southern Minnesota over July 26-27, 1968. Some large hail was also reported. Many roads and highways closed due to flash flooding.

It was a frosty morning for campers in northern Minnesota on July 26, 1980. Many areas of Beltrami, Roseau, St Louis, Koochiching, and Lake of the Woods Counties reported minimum temperatures from the upper 20s F to the low 30s F. The daytime temperature only climbed to 69°F at Cass Lake.

Outlook A generally sunny Saturday will give way to increasing cloudiness on Sunday and a chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially in southern counties. A cooler and drier weather pattern will prevail for next Monday through Thursday, with temperatures a few degrees below normal. Temperatures will start climbing to a few degrees above normal by next weekend, with an increased chance for showers.

WeatherTalk will be back August 9 Minnesota WeatherTalk, August 02, 2019 By Mark Seeley

WeatherTalk will not be published Friday, August 2. The next WeatherTalk will be available on Friday, August 9.

Warmer Than Normal Start to August Minnesota WeatherTalk, August 09, 2019 By Mark Seeley

The first 7 days of August have brought warmer than normal temperatures to most parts of the state, with mean daily temperatures averaging 3-5 degrees F above normal. For many, August 8th brought the first cooler than normal day of the month, with low relative humidity and dew points. August 9th continued that pattern as well. So far, the highest temperature in the state this month has been 94°F at St James (Watonwan County) on the 4th, and many places up north have seen lows in the 40s F.

Widely scattered thunderstorms have produced a large range in rainfall so far this month, with some areas receiving 1-2 inches, and many reporting less than half an inch. Earlier this week on August 6th many observers in southeastern Minnesota reported over 1 inch of rainfall, while Spring Valley, Hokah, Grand Meadow, and Waseca reported over 2 inches. Rochester and Owatonna both report over 36 inches of precipitation so far in 2019, already ranking among their 20 wettest years in history, and still over 5.5 months to complete the year.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Large hail and strong winds crossed Minnesota on August 5th (Monday). Some areas reported winds over 60 mph, and there were many reports of large hail, including baseball-size stones, and near Delano, grapefruit sized (4 inches). You can read more about this from the Minnesota State Climatology Office website.

The Minnesota Extreme Heat Toolkit developed by the Minnesota Department of Health is featured in an article from NOAA this week. It showcases how communities can better plan for coping with health risks that are associated with high Heat Index values.

In this week’s AGU-EOS bulletin there is an interesting article that highlights the recent massive loss of ice from Greenland. The Greenland ice sheet broke records on 1 August 2019 by losing more water volume in 1 day than on than any other day since records began in 1950, shedding 12.5 billion tons of water into the sea. Temperatures so far in August are running up to 10°F above normal, following above normal temperatures in April, May, June, and July as well.

In the Western Pacific Ocean Typhoon Lekima developed and was moving southeast of Taiwan with winds over 110 mph and sea wave heights of 30 feet. It was expected to weaken as it nears the coast of China this weekend. Elsewhere in the Western Pacific Ocean Typhoon Krosa was southeast of Japan with wind speeds up to 105mph and sea wave heights of 32 feet. It was expected to weaken significantly before approaching the coast of Japan early next week.

MPR listener question I am curious how this summer compares to past summers with respect to overall (or perhaps average) moisture levels in the atmosphere. It seems that 6 out 7 days each week has been very muggy, even when temperatures are near normal.

Answer The common measures for atmospheric moisture levels are relative humidity and dew point. Examining those measurements for this summer shows that they were below average in general for the month of June, and so far for the month of August. Conversely, they were well above average during the month of July. Humidity levels were above 70 percent in the Twin Cities Metro Area during July more than any year since 2004, and uncomfortable dew points of 65°F or greater were 30 percent above average during July as well. This at least partially explains why we recorded 8 nights when the low temperature never fell below 70°F.

Twin Cities Almanac for August 9th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 82 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 63 degrees F (plus or minus 6 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for August 9th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 95 degrees F in 2010; lowest daily maximum temperature of 60 degrees F in 1994; lowest daily minimum temperature is 46 degrees F in 1972; highest daily minimum temperature of 76 degrees F in 2010; record precipitation of 3.34 inches in 1914; and no snow has fallen on this date.

Average dew point for August 9th is 59 degrees F, with a maximum of 79 degrees F in 1992 and a minimum of 37 degrees F in 1927.

All-time state records for August 9th The state record high temperature for this date is 104 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1947. The state record low temperature for this date is 28 degrees F at Tower (St Louis County) in 1994. State record precipitation for this date is 5.25 inches at Two Harbors (Lake County) in 1939: and no snowfall has occurred on this date.

Past Weather Features August 9, 1947 brought extreme temperature variation to Minnesota. Most of the state saw temperatures climb into the 90s F, with 7 communities in southwestern counties recorded afternoon highs of 100°F or greater. Northeastern Minnesota along Lake Superior was enjoying a breeze off the lake, with afternoon highs ranging from 61 to 67

degrees F.

Strong thunderstorms over August 9-10, 1948 brought heavy rains and flash flooding to many parts of southern and central Minnesota. Many communities reported 4 to 7 inches of rainfall, while Mankato, Winthrop, and Faribault reported over 7 inches.

Campers in northern Minnesota on August 9, 1994 awoke to chilly morning temperatures ranging from 28°F to 35°F in St Louis, Lake, and Koochiching Counties. Afternoon high temperatures did climb into the 60s F.

Outlook Increasing cloudiness on Saturday with a chance for showers and thunderstorms and cooler than normal temperatures. Then drier on Sunday. Another chance for showers and thunderstorms later on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will generally be a few degrees cooler than normal, then warming up towards the end of next week to near normal with increased chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Follow up on the disparity of climate signals Minnesota WeatherTalk, August 16, 2019 By Mark Seeley Earlier this week there was a long article in the Washington Post by Chris Mooney and others about the extreme measures of climate change that are already occurring across the USA. Northern Minnesota is one area where the change in temperature has been most extreme and highlighted in this article.

I wanted to point out however that there is some disparity in the net change of temperature across the state that has occurred over the past 100 years or so. Listed below (from NOAA-climate data) is the net change in mean annual temperature and mean winter temperature (Dec-Feb) over the past 100 years in Minnesota’s northern most counties compared to one of the southernmost counties (Fillmore). Numbers are rounded to nearest whole digit:

County Net Change in Mean Net Change in Winter Annual Temp Temp

Cook 3.0F +5.0F Lake +4.0F +6.0F St. Louis +7.0F Koochiching +5.0F +8.0F Lake of the +5.0F +9.0F Woods Roseau +6.0F +10.0F Kittson +6.0F +10.0F Fillmore 3.0F +5.0F

The winter season has obviously warmed much more than the annual temperature, and certainly the northern counties have warmed more dramatically than the southern counties. Much of this has to do with the presence or absence of winter snow cover, which has become more intermittent in recent decades than it was ages ago. Also note that Cook and Lake Counties which are heavily influenced by Lake Superior show somewhat less total change in temperature.

Below is a similar data presentation for major cities in Minnesota: City Net Change in Mean Net Change in Winter Annual Temp Temp International +7.0F +11.0F Falls Duluth +5.0F +8.0F Rochester +3.0F +5.0F Twin +5.0F +6.0F Cities 100

Some disparity in the precipitation signal change (most of which is upward-increased annual precipitation) across Minnesota also exists over the past hundred years, but it presents a more complicated geographical pattern.

A State Fair Weather Perspective This year our State Fair runs from August 22 to September 2. Over this interval, the date showing the fewest measurable rainfalls historically (since 1891) is September 1st, on which it has rained only 26 percent of the time. August 30th shows the most rainfalls over the same period of time at 36 percent frequency.

How often is a sweater or light jacket appropriate during the Fair, other than occasionally in the early morning when the gates open? Not very often. When I looked at the frequency of afternoon temperatures that didn't reach 65 degrees F, I found that this only occurs less than 7 percent of the time (again since 1891).

All-time extremes during the State Fair (according to National Weather Service MSP records since 1891) include: a high of 104 degrees F on the afternoon of September 10, 1931; a morning low of 33 degrees F on September 13, 1890; a Heat Index of 107°F followed by a sticky night with a 75 degree dew point and overnight low of 80 degrees F on August 22, 1968; a chilly afternoon with overcast skies, strong northwesterly wind and a high of only 58 degrees F on August 31,1958. Wettest run of the State Fair saw 9.48 inches of rain in 1977, while the driest run saw just 0.08” in 1968

One of the most unsettling evenings during the State Fair was probably, August 30, 1977, when one of the heaviest thunderstorms to ever hit the Twin Cities occurred, dropping 7.28 inches at the airport between 8:30 pm and midnight. This obviously caused severe flooding, but primarily in the south Metro area. The State Fair Grounds actually recorded a mere 4.5 inches of rain. Still, I wonder how many fairgoers brought their poncho and umbrella and I wonder who was playing in the Grandstand that night.

If you will be at the State Fair this year on August 23 come on over to the MPR booth (corner of Judson and Nelson) for a broadcast of TPT-Almanac program starting at 11am. I will be on, along with storyteller Kevin Kling, some expert musicians, and a panel of political scientists. Or if you are at the State Fair on August 30, come over to Dan Patch Park at 10am for broadcast of the annul MPR Minnesota Weather Quiz. I will be there with host Tom Crann.

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Weekly Weather Potpourri NOAA scientists reported this week that July of 2019 was the warmest month on record for the globe dating back to 1880. It has also been the 2nd warmest January-July period. Many European countries suffered through another Heat Wave in July, while Alaska reported its warmest July in history, setting many new daily temperature records (119 daily maximum temperature records set or tied).

Also NOAA announced the publication and release of the State of the Climate Report for 2018. The year 2018 was the 4th warmest year in the global record and saw enormous rates of Arctic ice loss, as well as loss of glacial ice. Oceanic heat trends were especially noted.

The Weather Underground web site reported earlier this week that a recent hailstorm in eastern Colorado produced a new record size hail stone for Colorado. It measured nearly 5 inches in diameter.

The AGU-EOS newsletter features an interesting article this week about the distinction between weather and climate as perceived through a cultural and historical lens. It makes for an interesting discussion.

MPR listener question Want you to know that you have a lot of Morning Edition listeners in western Minnesota. Please settle an argument for us. At a recent farmer meeting I got into a debate with another farmer who lives near Crookston in the Red River Valley. He claimed that they typically have more days with 90 degrees F temperatures than we do here in Marshall. I said I thought he was wrong. Who is correct?

Answer You are correct in your historical interpretation of the climate. The climate history of Marshall shows an average of 18 days each year that reach 90 degrees F or greater, while Crookston’s climate history shows only 10 such days. In 2019 Marshall has reported 14 such days so far, while Crookston has reported only 4 days.

Twin Cities Almanac for August 16th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 81 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 62 degrees F (plus or minus 6 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for August 16th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 99 degrees F in 1988: lowest daily maximum temperature of 64 degrees F in 1943; lowest daily minimum temperature is 47 degrees F in 1962; highest daily minimum temperature of 77 degrees F in 1988; record precipitation of 1.97 inches in 2002; and there was a

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trace of snowfall on this date in 1966.

Average dew point for August 16th is 59 degrees F, with a maximum of 76 degrees F in 1908 and a minimum of 40 degrees F in 1924.

All-time state records for August 16th The state record high temperature for this date is 107 degrees F Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) in 1988. The state record low temperature for this date is 27 degrees F at Tower (St Louis County) in 1976. State record precipitation for this date is 4.21 inches at Willmar (Traverse County) in 1920; and record snowfall is 6.0 inches at Pigeon River Bridge (Cook County) in 1927.

Past Weather Features Strong thunderstorms brought heavy rains to portions of northeastern Minnesota over August 16-17, 1972. Many climate stations reported 2-4 inches of rain and there were a number of state and county roads closed for a time.

In the drought year of 1976, August 16 brought frost to portions of St Louis and Carlton Counties in northeastern Minnesota, as morning temperatures fell into the upper 20s and low 30s F.

August 16, 1988 was the warmest in state history with over 40 climate stations reporting an afternoon high temperature of 100 degrees F or greater. It was a warm night too, as the overnight low temperature at Marshall and Winona never fell below 83 degrees F.

Outlook Slightly cooler than normal temperatures heading into the weekend with increasing cloudiness by Saturday night and a chance for showers and thunderstorms continuing into early Sunday. Brighter by Sunday afternoon. Slight chance for showers on Monday night, then mostly dry with a bit cooler than normal temperature prevailing for most of next week.

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Significant Weather and Climate Events of 2019 So Far Minnesota WeatherTalk, August 23, 2019 By Mark Seeley

February 2019 was the coldest month of the year and coldest month in Minnesota since February of 2015.

It was also the snowiest February in state history with over 150 climate stations reporting over 30 inches of snowfall, and over 30 climate stations reporting over 40 inches of snowfall.

At least 10 Minnesota climate stations reported over 100 inches of snowfall for the 2018-2019 snow season. MSP reported over 77 inches for only the 11th time in history.

Duluth reported a record amount of snowfall for May 8th with 8.3 inches and a new record total for the month of May with 13.3 inches.

Four-inch diameter hail stones were reported from Clear Lake July 26th and from Delano on August 5th……grapefruit size hail is very unusual in state history.

Sartell in Stearns County reports the largest one-day rainfall so far this year with 6.42 inches falling on July 5th.

Southern Minnesota counties are reporting one of their wettest years of record with total precipitation so far that exceeds normal by 8 to 10 inches.

The 2019 agricultural planting season was the latest since 1979, but crops have been slowly catching up, though still lagging behind in development. This has brought some concern for early frost and/or high moisture content at harvest time.

The coldest Wind Chill value this year was -65°F at Hibbing on January 30th, while the highest Heat Index Value was 116°F at Winthrop (Sibley County) on July 19th, for a range 181°F across the state so far this year.

Weekly Weather Potpourri There is an interesting article by David Brown of the BBC News Service this week. He highlights ways in which the United Kingdom farmers are adapting to and mitigating climate change in their agricultural practices.

Tropical Storm Bailu in the Western Pacific Ocean is headed towards Taiwan and expected to come ashore this weekend. It may bring 90 mph wind gusts, 20-foot sea waves, and heavy rainfall to that island nation before crossing into the South China Sea. Tropical Storm Ivo was churning away in the Eastern Pacific Ocean off the coast of 104

Mexico but was no threat to land.

Researchers have published in Nature Communications a reassessment of hurricane flood risks for the coastal regions of the USA. There studies show that on the Eastern Coasts 100-year floods could become annual occurrences in New England; and happen everyone to 30 years along the southeast Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico shorelines.

MPR listener question We have heard you talk repeatedly this year about how wet it has been. We read an article that for the year-to-date the Twin Cities has reported the 2nd largest amount of precipitation in its climate history. Which other areas of the state are going to threaten the record for their all-time wettest year?

Answer There are several climate stations in southern Minnesota that may threaten their annual precipitation records. Some of these include: Rochester (Olmsted County) with over 36 inches so far, their record is 43.94 inches. Redwood Falls (Redwood County) with over 32 inches so far, their record is 37.56 inches St Peter (Nicollet County) with over 31 inches so far, their record is 41.16 inches

It is not unreasonable to expect another 8-10 inches of precipitation for the balance of the year, so it is highly likely that some records will fall.

Twin Cities Almanac for August 23rd The average MSP high temperature for this date is 80 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 61 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for August 23rd MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 100 degrees F in 1977: lowest daily maximum temperature of 63 degrees F in 1902; lowest daily minimum temperature is 46 degrees F in 1873; highest daily minimum temperature of 79 degrees F in 1977; record precipitation of 1.75 inches in 1957; and no snow has fallen on this date.

Average dew point for August 23rd is 58 degrees F, with a maximum of 77 degrees F in 1975 and a minimum of 32 degrees F in 1927.

All-time state records for August 23rd The state record high temperature for this date is 104 degrees F at Beardsley (Big Stone County) in 1922. The state record low temperature for this date is 25 degrees F at Tower (St Louis County) in 1977. State record precipitation for this date is 5.82 105

inches at Remer (Cass County) in 1978; and no snowfall has occurred on this date.

Word of the Week: Wind Shade This is a term used to describe the effect of a blunt obstacle used as a shelterbelt or barrier to the wind. The maximum reduction in wind speed usually occurs below the top of the barrier and some distance away on the downwind side. Many shelterbelts such as trees and shrubs have the ability to reduce wind speeds in the wind shaded area by 60 percent or more.

Past Weather Features Strong thunderstorms parked over Sibley and Brown Counties in southern Minnesota brought 4-6 inches of rainfall on August 23, 1870.

A Heat Wave prevailed across most of the state on August 23, 1922 with over 40 climate stations reporting afternoon high temperatures in the 90s F. In the far west Traverse, Ottertail, and Big Stone Counties reported temperatures over 100 degrees F.

August 23, 1940 brought a hard freeze to many northern Minnesota counties, including Carlton, Itasca, Beltrami, Roseau, Cass, and Clearwater. Morning low temperatures fell into the upper 20s F.

Outlook Partly cloudy skies and cooler than normal temperatures will prevail throughout the weekend. There will be increasing cloudiness on Sunday night with a chance for rain showers. This carries over into Monday as well. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal much of next week with a chance for showers by Wednesday.

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Cooler Pattern Dominates August Minnesota WeatherTalk, August 30, 2019 By Mark Seeley

More than half of the days in August have produced cooler than normal temperatures. As such, most climate stations report a monthly mean temperature that is 1 to 2 degrees F cooler than normal, with the largest departures in western counties. Extremes ranged from 94°F at St James (Watonwan County) on the 4th to 35°F at Hibbing (St Louis County) on the 30th. Despite the cooler than normal temperature readings for the state Minnesota did not report the nation’s lowest temperature even once during the month, somewhat unusual for our history.

Rainfall was mixed around the state during August. Over 50 climate stations reported total rainfall of 6 inches or greater, while at least a dozen stations reported less than 2 inches for the month, including portions of southeastern Minnesota which up until August were reporting one of the wettest years in history. In the Twin Cities Metro Area, portions of Edina and Richfield reported over 8 inches for the month. According to NOAA 17 new daily rainfall records were set within the Minnesota climate network during the month, including 3.10 inches at the University of Minnesota St Paul Campus, most of which came in under 1.5 hours early on August 18th.

On August 5th thunderstorms across central Minnesota produced some wind gusts over 60 mph and hail stones from tennis ball to grapefruit size (Delano). Also, according to the DNR-State Climatology Office thunderstorms moved across central Minnesota on the evening of August 26th and two of those storms produced brief tornadoes in Mille Lacs county, one near Onamia (EF-0 intensity), and one near Milaca (EF-1 intensity. These were the first tornadoes to occur in Mille Lacs county since July 30, 2011.

One final note is that for the month of August it has been exceptionally windy. In many areas several days have produced wind gusts over 30 mph, and some climate stations have reported 5 or more days with gusts over 40 mph.

MPR Minnesota Weather Quiz at the State Fair If you are going to the State Fair on Friday, August 30th, please drop by Dan Patch Park between 10am and 11am. Tom Crann and I will be broadcasting the MPR Minnesota Weather Quiz, a tradition for 23 years now. We will have prizes for those who participate. It will be broadcast on MPR news, and also available for listeners to test their knowledge about weather and climate on the MPR web site.

Weekly Weather Potpourri According to a NOAA news release earlier this month an instrument equipped sail drone finished a 13,670 mile trip around the continent of Antarctica measuring atmospheric

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carbon dioxide content among other things. Until recently, scientists assumed that the Southern Ocean was a reliably uniform carbon sink, but preliminary results indicate that parts of the Southern Ocean emit carbon dioxide in winter.

The NOAA-National Hurricane Center was tracking, forecasting, and putting out advisories and warnings this week about Hurricane Dorian. It passed Puerto Rico with a glancing blow but is expected to come onshore this weekend along the east coast of Florida. Most of the models place the maximum intensity to range between category 3 (111-129 mph) and category 4 (130-156 mph) before coming onshore. Then there will be more rapid degradation of intensity, but the slow-moving storm may bring a great deal of rain (6-12 inches). Dorian is the 4th named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

The Weather Underground reported that an estimated 3 to 5 inches of rain fell in many areas toward the south side of the New Orleans metro on Monday August 26th and closed some highways and roadways. In addition, on the same day, strong thunderstorms brought up to 6 inches of rain to the St Louis Area of Missouri, closing Interstate 44 for a time.

This week's AGU-EOS reported that climate change is leading to more and more exposure of fossils and artifacts in the Arctic landscapes, notably Greenland. This will provide archaeologists with more knowledge about earlier settlements there, but also see a degradation in preservation of those elements left on the landscape.

MPR listener question I read recently that the NOAA Climate Prediction Center was leaning more on trend analysis recently because El Nino is expected to be near neutral the rest of the year. What do the climate trends say about the month of September 2019?

Answer Over the past twenty years the September climate trends in Minnesota show 16 out of 20 warmer than normal months, and 11 out of 20 show wetter than normal months. So, there is a much stronger signal for warmth this year, than for wetter than normal conditions.

Twin Cities Almanac for August 30th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 78 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 59 degrees F (plus or minus 6 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for August 30th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 96 degrees F in 1941; lowest daily maximum temperature of 60 degrees F in 1965; lowest 108

daily minimum temperature is 45 degrees F in 1974; highest daily minimum temperature of 77 degrees F in 2010; record precipitation of 7.28 inches in 1977; and no snow has fallen on this date.

Average dew point for August 30th is 58 degrees F, with a maximum of 75 degrees F in 1951 and a minimum of 34 degrees F in 1931.

All-time state records for August 30th The state record high temperature for this date is 103 degrees F at Minneota (Lyon County) in 1976. The state record low temperature for this date is 26 degrees F at Sawbill Camp (Cook County) in 1935. State record precipitation for this date is 7.28 inches at MSP Airport in 1977: and no snowfall has occurred on this date.

Past Weather Features August 30, 1898 brought a Heat Wave to western and southern Minnesota with over 25 communities reporting afternoon high temperatures in the 90s F. There were strong winds and high fire danger that day as well, while up in Tower, MN the day started out at just 39°F. It was one of those odd weather days in Minnesota.

On August 30, 1976 campers in St Louis County awoke to frost with morning temperatures ranging from 28 to 32 degrees F. The daytime high reached only 61°F at Grand Marais that day.

Strong thunderstorms brought intense rainfall to the state over August 30-31, 1977. Many climate stations reported 3 to 7 inches of rainfall, including 7.36 inches in the Twin Cities. The 7.28 inches of rain on August 30th is the 2nd largest daily amount in Twin Cities climate history (behind 9.15 inches on July 23, 1987), and washed out a show by Mac Davis at the State Fair grandstand.

Outlook Mostly dry, with cooler than normal temperatures through the weekend. Warming up to above normal temperatures on Monday with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Then, drier and cooler for the balance of next week, with some slight chance for showers later on Wednesday and early Thursday.

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Strong Thunderstorms on September 2nd Minnesota WeatherTalk, September 06, 2019 By Mark Seeley

On Labor Day a strong line of thunderstorms moved southeast across west-central Minnesota and into west-central Wisconsin during the evening. There were two tornado reports, one near Howard Lake in Wright County and another near Mound in Hennepin County. Both were rated EF-1 (max winds near 90 mph), with the Wright County storm on the ground for 1.1 miles and the Hennepin County storm on the ground for 3.5 miles. There was some structural damage to farm buildings and some tree damage as well. Seventeen other Minnesota Counties reported some strong thunderstorm winds with gusts over 50 mph and some tree damage as well. Some climate stations reported 1-2 inches of rainfall. Sandstone in Pine County reported over 2 inches. In addition, Pope, Stearns, Kandiyohi, Le Sueur, and Rice Counties reported large hail. More detail is available from the National Weather Service.

Favorable Weather Leads to State Fair Attendance Record The 12-day run of the Minnesota State Fair produced a new attendance record this year with 2,126,551 people attending. There were new daily attendance records established on six days, with the lowest attendance falling on Monday, August 26 at 96,716, the day with the most rain (just under an inch).

Overall the weather was comfortable with an average daily high temperature of 75°F and an average daily low temperature of 59°F. The highest temperature during the Fair was 77°F on Friday August 23, and this marked the coolest maximum temperature during the State Fair since 1935. Only one day was consistently disrupted by rain (Monday August 26), while most days saw partly cloudy skies and comfortable dew points in the 40s and 50s F. Some days were breezy but that did not discourage the crowds.

Wet Year Continues in Places Although the amount of rainfall has slowed down a bit recently, we still see that portions of Dodge, Olmsted, Steele, and Hennepin Counties have reported over 38 inches of precipitation for the year thus far. The extreme range in departure from normal is represented by Rochester (Olmsted County) which is over 14 inches above normal for the year so far and Orr (St Louis County) which is nearly 6 inches short of normal for the year so far.

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Weekly Weather Potpourri The Science Education Resource Center (SERC) offers a timely online lesson plan this week to look at the effect of warming ocean temperatures on hurricanes. For school science teachers it is worth taking a look.

After devastating the Bahamas earlier in the week and bringing rains to portions of Florida, Hurricane Dorian continued to pummel SC and NC with heavy rains and strong winds on Thursday and Friday. Many areas had reported receiving 5-8 inches of rainfall. Wilmington, NC reported over 9 inches of rain. Fortunately, the storm was weakening and turning more to the northeast and out to sea.

Elsewhere in the Western Pacific Ocean Tropical Storm Faxai was expected to strengthen into a typhoon as it heads for the east coast of Japan this weekend. It will likely bring winds over 80 mph, heavy rains on sea waves over 30 feet to areas around Kyoto.

Along the western edge of India, areas around Mumbai reported 16-20 inches of rainfall over 3 days this week. This caused widespread flooding and evacuation of some areas of the cities. Rainfall was expected to continue into the weekend there.

MPR listener question If I'm in my backyard and there's a thunderstorm approaching, can I get hailed on before rained on? Answer Yes, this can happen. Though most hail falls from thunderstorm cells as they pass over the landscape below, some hail can be blown out of the cell by strong horizontal winds aloft and arrive as a swath of hail on the landscape where rain has not yet fallen. These are often smaller hail stones, while the largest ones are found more often under the core of the thunderstorm or supercell complex.

Twin Cities Almanac for September 6th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 76 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 57 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for September 6th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 98 degrees F in 1922: lowest daily maximum temperature of 55 degrees F in 1911; lowest daily minimum temperature is 35 degrees F in 1885; highest daily minimum temperature of 75 degrees F in 1913; record precipitation of 1.61 inches in 1881; and no snow has fallen on this date.

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Average dew point for September 6ths 55 degrees F, with a maximum of 75 degrees F in 1970 and a minimum of 33 degrees F in 1956.

All-time state records for September 6th The state record high temperature for this date is 105 degrees F at New Ulm (Brown County) in 1922. The state record low temperature for this date is 23 degrees F at Park Rapids (Hubbard County) in 1885 and at Two Harbors (Lake County) in 2011. State record precipitation for this date is 8.44 inches at Cloquet (Carlton County) in 1990; and no snowfall has occurred on this date.

Past Weather Features September 6, 1922 was the warmest in state history with over 40 climate stations reporting afternoon highs of 90 degrees F or higher. Ten western communities hit 100 degrees F or greater. The nighttime minimum temperature at Winona fell no lower than 80 degrees F, a good night to sleep outside.

Strong thunderstorms brought heavy rains to northeastern Minnesota on September 6, 1990. Many climate stations reported 2 to 6 inches of rainfall, while Cloquet reported an all-time one-day rainfall record of 8.44 inches.

Many northern Minnesota communities reported frost on September 6, 2011. Many daytime high temperatures only made it into the mid50s to low 60s F.

Outlook Cloudy skies with cooler than normal temperatures for the upcoming Saturday through Monday period. There will be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Then warming up to near normal temperatures by next Tuesday through Thursday, but still chances for showers.

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Wet Start to September Minnesota WeatherTalk, September 13, 2019 By Mark Seeley

This has been a very wet week in many places as much of Minnesota has shown rainfall totals over 2 inches since Monday (September 9th). For the first half of the month most Minnesota climate stations have seen double the normal amount of rainfall, and several have already reported 3 to 6 inches of rain. Pipestone has already received 8.50 inches for the month. There have also been many reports of new daily rainfall records set within the state climate station network. Too many to report here, but some of the more significant ones are: September 10th, 2.23” at Wheaton September 11th, 2.30” at Zumbrota and 2.63” at Red Wing September 12th, 4.40” at Pipestone; 4.28” at Lake Wilson; 3.15” at Luverne; 3.11” at Lamberton; 2.45” at Marshall; 2.19” at Canby; and 2.14” at Windom September 13th, 3.72” at Minnesota City; 3.66” at Grand Meadow; 3.00” at Spring Valley; 2.67” at Caledonia; and 2.52” at Preston

We continue to witness many areas of the state recording one of the wettest years in history. Many communities are 12-16 inches above normal so far this year. Fortunately, it looks like the last third of the month may be drier than normal.

Weekly Weather Potpourri An episode of severe weather struck Sioux Falls, SD on Tuesday night this week, with tornadoes, hail, heavy rains, and strong straight-line winds. A preliminary survey rom the National Weather Service (reported by the Weather Underground) confirmed that three EF2 tornadoes had touched down, with estimated winds ranging from 125 mph to 130 mph. The NWS said eight people were injured. Strong winds were also reported in Winona, MN late that night.

Climate Central offers an interesting video about the relationships between climate, drought, and wildfires in the western states. It provides some scientific evidence about the disturbing trends we are seeing in the climate there.

It's only the beginning of the fire season in Australia, but more than 140 bushfires are already raging across Queensland and New South Wales. Bureau of Meteorology officials say they expect the fires this season to be hotter and more intense – and part of this is due to recent climate trends. More from the BBC.

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This week’s AGU-EOS bulletin features a compelling commentary by former administrators in NOAA about the distorted statements that President Trump made regarding the Hurricane Dorian forecast guidance and the resulting correction by the Birmingham, AL office of the NWS.

MPR listener question Do you think fall color will progress near a normal pace this autumn, or be earlier than normal?

Answer From a climate perspective, some early fall color change in the north was noted already as a result of some overnight low temperatures in the 30s F during the latter stages of August. The DNR reports some areas showing 10-25 percent color change already in portions of Cook, Lake, St Louis, Koochiching, and Lake of the Woods Counties. But the recent moderating temperatures, and next week’s warmer than normal temperatures will slow things down. I think for the balance of the state much of the fall color will emerge around normal dates in late September and early October.

Twin Cities Almanac for September 13th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 73 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 54 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for September 13th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 95 degrees F in 1939; lowest daily maximum temperature of 51 degrees F in 1873; lowest daily minimum temperature is 33 degrees F in 1890; highest daily minimum temperature of 72 degrees F in 1939; record precipitation of 1.29 inches in 1921; and no snow has fallen on this date.

Average dew point for September 13th is 49 degrees F, with a maximum of 71 degrees F in 1939 and a minimum of 22 degrees F in 1923.

All-time state records for September 13th The state record high temperature for this date is 100 degrees F at Redwood Falls (Redwood County) in 1939. The state record low temperature for this date is 17 degrees F at Roseau (Roseau County) in 1975. State record precipitation for this date is 4.92 inches at Elk River (Sherburne County) in 2005: and no snowfall has occurred on this date.

Past Weather Features

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On September 13, 1923, a hard freeze occurred over many western and northern counties with temperatures in the 20s F for several hours. This brought an end to the agricultural season over about half of the state. The Morris Agricultural Experiment Station reported 26°F while at Roseau, after a morning low of 24°F the temperature only climbed to 48°F by afternoon.

September 13, 1939 was the hottest in state history, with over 40 climate stations reporting afternoon highs in the 90s F. At Marshall, the overnight low only dipped to 75°F.

September 12-13, 1978 brought strong thunderstorms to southern portions of Minnesota where 3 to 6 inches of rain fell, causing widespread flash flooding, especially around Rochester. Portions of Wabasha, Olmsted, Dakota, Goodhue, Winona, and Mower Counties were under flash flood warnings for many hours.

Outlook Partly cloudy skies and warming up over the weekend, with temperatures rising to a few degrees above normal. Chance for widely scattered showers on Saturday, then mostly sunny on Sunday. Warmer yet for Monday through Wednesday of next week, then a chance for showers and thunderstorms by Thursday with cooler temperatures.

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September Climate Update Minnesota WeatherTalk, September 20, 2019 By Mark Seeley

Since last Saturday we have seen some of the warmest weather since early August prevail across much of the state. Over 100 climate stations have reported daytime highs above 80°F this week and in western Minnesota places like Windom, Marshall, Browns Valley, Milan, and Redwood Falls saw temperatures of 90° or higher. Of further note is that warm nights have prevailed as well, with seven climate stations reporting new record high minimum temperatures including 71°F at Canby, 69°F at Lamberton, and 66°F at Ada in the early morning of the 17th.

Minnesota farmers were happy to see the return of warmer than normal weather this week as it was needed to speed up corn development towards maturity. Most of the state corn crop is in the dough or dent state (condition of the kernels) and needs some more time to mature and dry down before harvest. The warm temperatures also help soybeans turn color and drop leaves this week as they progress to maturity.

It was good to see that rainfall abated for a few days as many areas of the state have already seen twice normal rainfall totals for the month. Normal rainfall for September typically ranges from 2.25 inches to 3.50 inches around the state, and so far over 40 Minnesota climate stations have reported 6 inches or more of rainfall this month. With 9.40 inches Pipestone has already reported its 3rd wettest September in history, and with 8.19 inches Preston September rainfall ranks 5th wettest historically. For the year- to-date Rochester has received 44.05” of precipitation which is already a new annual record. Unfortunately, the weather outlook to the end of the month favors above normal precipitation to continue.

Weekly Weather Potpourri At 2:50am CDT on Monday, September 23 the sun will be directly over the Earth’s equator marking the autumnal equinox.

The Twin Cities, along with Northfield: Baudette, Bemidji, Center City, Duluth, Grand Marais, Grand Rapids, Moose Lake, Morris, Rochester, St. Joseph, St. Paul, Virginia, Willmar and Winona are hosting activities today in coordination with the Global Climate Strike to raise awareness and demand more aggressive action to respond to climate change and help mitigate it. MPR features an excellent story about this. Kudos to all the organizers of these events and the call for action.

According to the MN-DNR some areas of north-central and northeastern Minnesota are showing over 50 percent color change, while yet a larger share of the state’s northern wooded landscapes are showing 25-50 percent color change. Maples on the uplands of the north shore counties (Lake Superior) are showing orange and reds for this weekend. 116

Remnants of Tropical Storm Imelda dumped a load of rainfall over eastern Texas and Louisiana this week. There were many reports of flash floods, as well as closed roads and highways. Some climate stations in Jefferson County (where Beaumont and Port Arthur are located) reported 25 to 35 inches of rainfall from the storm. Many people were evacuated due to flooding across Jefferson County. To the east across the border into Louisiana, Lake Charles reported over 21 inches of rain, the most since Hurricane Harvey two years ago.

It was a busy week for tropical storm activity as on Wednesday, September 18th the NOAA – National Hurricane Center was tracking named storms Humberto, Jerry, and Imelda in the Atlantic Basin, as well as Kiko, Mario and Lorena in the Eastern Pacific Basin. Staff from the National Hurricane Center tweeted this combined number of active storms in both basins was believed to tie a modern record from September of 1992. You can read more from the Weather Underground.

In this week’s AGU-EOS bulletin, there is an interesting article how scientists from Denmark, Finland, and Norway joined forces to develop a suite of open access tools for climate assessment. Long-term planning and decision-making for societal infrastructure needs to take a changing climate into account. Transportation, energy supply, and water and drainage systems are better managed with this information. Typically, the relevant climate projections include substantial inherent uncertainty, and appropriately accounting for this uncertainty is critical to good decision-making. These scientists are developing tools for assessing this uncertainty.

MPR listener question This inquiry comes from our group at the Phat Pheasant Pub in Windom, MN where it has been raining over 8 inches this month. What is the state record for the most ever rainfall in September?

Answer The statewide record for rainfall in September comes from the University of Minnesota Southern Research and Outreach Center at Waseca, MN where they recorded 14.80 inches of rain in September of 1990. Suffice to say their drain tile were running most of the month and it was a difficult harvest.

Twin Cities Almanac for September 20th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 70 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 50 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for September 20th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 91

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degrees F in 1931: lowest daily maximum temperature of 47 degrees F in 1875; lowest daily minimum temperature is 28 degrees F in 1962; highest daily minimum temperature of 75 degrees F in 1895; record precipitation of 1.82 inches in 1902; and there was a trace of snow in 1927.

Average dew point for September 20ths 48 degrees F, with a maximum of 75 degrees F in 1970 and a minimum of 33 degrees F in 1956.

All-time state records for September 20th The state record high temperature for this date is 99 degrees F at Fairmont (Martin County) in 1891. The state record low temperature for this date is 14 degrees F at Karlstad (Kittson County) in 1973. State record precipitation for this date is 4.97 inches at Harmony (Fillmore County) in 1983; and record snowfall of 0.4 inches at International Falls (Koochiching County) in 1945.

Past Weather Features September 20, 1973 was the coldest in state history with over 100 climate stations reporting frost. In northwestern Minnesota morning low temperatures ranged from 14 to 20°F.

September 19-20, 1983 brought heavy thunderstorms to many areas of the state, especially southeastern counties. Portions of Houston, Mower, and Fillmore Counties reported over 4 inches of rain with widespread flooding and closure of roads. Harmony reported 5 inches of rain.

September 19-20 brought an autumn Heat Wave with temperatures soaring to 90°F or higher in over 80 Minnesota communities. Tower, MN reported frost that morning with a reading of 32°F, then the afternoon temperature climbed all the way up to 86°F.

Outlook Saturday will be breezy with a chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially eastern and southern sections of the state. Sunday and Monday look dry, but then another chance for showers by Tuesday through Thursday. The temperature pattern will be falling during the period and they will be closer to normal by the middle of next week.

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Preliminary Climate Summary for September Minnesota WeatherTalk, September 27, 2019 By Mark Seeley

As we near the end of the month it appears that most climate stations will report a mean monthly temperature that ranges from 3 to 5 degrees F above normal, only the 2nd significantly warmer than normal month of 2019. Extremes were 91°F at Marshall on the 18th, and 31°F at Celina (St Louis County) on the 14th.

With respect to rainfall, September of 2019 will be among the six wettest in history on a statewide basis. Many areas received between 5 and 10 inches for the month. There were several new daily rainfall records set during the month, including 4.28" at Lake Wilson and 4.30" at Pipestone on the 12th. At least 70 new daily rainfall records were set within the state climate network during the month. A handful of climate stations reported over 10 inches of rainfall for the month.

Severe Weather on September 24th Many parts of Minnesota reported thunderstorms with heavy rain, strong winds, and hail on Tuesday, September 24th. Several reports of 1-inch diameter hail or larger came from around the state, with most of the strong wind reports (up to 80 mph) coming from southeastern counties: Winona, Olmsted, Mower, Dodge, and Wabasha Counties. Parts of Dodge, Olmsted, Winona, and Steele Counties reported between 1 and 2 inches of rain. Across in western Wisconsin a damaging tornado was reported near Elk Mound.

September of 1807 Alexander Henry was an explorer and trapper for the old Northwest Company of Canada back at the turn of the 19th Century. He explored and lived in the Red River Valley of Minnesota and North Dakota from 1800 to 1808. He camped and built temporary forts in many places along the river, including near Pembina and Drayton, ND as well as Warren, Oslo, and Red Lake Falls, MN. Thanks to his daily weather journal, one of the oldest in our region, we have a written record of the weather in northwestern Minnesota for the period from September 1807 to June 1808. September 1807 according to Henry was highly variable. Very sunny and warm early in the month with several days in the 80s F. Then it turned cool and showery by mid-month with a number of frosts and a hard freeze on the 16th (28 F). Fall coloration and leaf drop came about mid-month, and he observed the migration of geese and swans heading south. September 18th brought every kind of weather according to Henry's journal...strong winds, heavy rain, hail, and even two inches of snow! This was followed by another hard freeze on the 20th (27 F). The month concluded with yet another freeze on the 28th, followed by light showers and foggy weather through the end of the month.

Henry's journal is a treasure to a historian or climatologist as it is one of the few written

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records of the daily weather from such an early time period, before settlement of the Red River Valley. He documents a number of spring snow melt floods in the region and remarks about how the floods used to drown hundreds of buffalo which would graze the numerous islands. The 1800-1808 period is still encompassed by the northern hemisphere's Little Ice Age that extended to roughly 1850. In this context it is not unexpected to find that Alexander Henry recorded snows in September and winter snow cover persisting well into the month of May in northern Minnesota.

Weekly Weather Potpourri A late September blizzard is increasingly possible this weekend in parts of the northern Rockies, and some lower elevations of Montana, Wyoming and the western Dakotas could see their first snow of the season just days after the official arrival of fall. You can read more from the Weather Underground.

This week’s AGU-EOS bulletin features an interesting article about climate change refugees and illustrates with an example of residents from the Florida Keys leaving their homes and property to move elsewhere.

MPR listener question As we enter the month of October, those of us that like cross country skiing were wondering what the state record is for snowfall during the month of October? We figured that you might know.

Answer “When I answered this question earlier on the air for MPR I mistakenly made reference to September snowfall rather than October snowfall. I apologize for that. The answer below is absolutely correct.”

There are four places that have had 19 inches of snowfall in the month of October. Those places and the year of record are listed below: Farmington (Dakota County) 1926 Virginia (St Louis County) 1951 Baudette (Lake of the Woods County) 1916 Mizpah (Koochiching County) 1932

Twin Cities Almanac for September 27th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 67 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 47 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for September 27th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 88 degrees F in 1987: lowest daily maximum temperature of 40 degrees F in 1942; lowest 120

daily minimum temperature is 29 degrees F in 1991; highest daily minimum temperature of 65 degrees F in 2013; record precipitation of 0.54 inches in 1947; and there has been no snowfall on this date.

Average dew point for September 27ths 45 degrees F, with a maximum of 67 degrees F in 1905 and a minimum of 24 degrees F in 1951.

All-time state records for September 27th The state record high temperature for this date is 97 degrees F at Beardsley (Big Stone County) in 1894. The state record low temperature for this date is 13 degrees F at Beardsley (Big Stone County) in 1893. State record precipitation for this date is 3.50 inches at Wolf Ridge Environmental Learning Center (Lake County) in 1996; and record snowfall of 6.0 inches at Benson (Swift County) in 1942.

Past Weather Features September 27, 1894 was the warmest in state history with over 30 climate stations reporting a daytime high of 85°F or greater. It was an interesting day for residents of Mazeppa in Wabasha County, where the morning low temperature was 32°F with frost on most plants, then the afternoon high soared to 86°F.

This is one of the few instances in Minnesota weather history where the same community holds both the statewide maximum temperature record and the statewide minimum temperature record-this occurred at Beardsley, MN (Big Stone County) in back-to-back years. In 1893, September 27th brought a morning low of just 13 degrees F, while the next year, the same date brought an afternoon high of 97 degrees F. Only in Minnesota!

Over September 26-27, 1942 an extremely early snowstorm swept across Minnesota dumping from 3 to 8 inches in many areas. Becker, Willmar, and Long Prairie all received over 6 inches. Temperatures rebounded into the 60s and 70s F over the next two days wiping out the snow quickly and allowing farmers to return to the fields for harvest.

Outlook Somewhat cooler than normal temperatures over the weekend with a chance for widely scattered showers. Continued chance for showers next Monday through Wednesday as well, as cloud cover will keep daily highs below normal entering the month of October.

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Wet Start to October No Surprise Minnesota WeatherTalk, October 04, 2019 By Mark Seeley

Normal October precipitation around Minnesota ranges from 2 to 2.5 inches most places. Already over the first few days of the month many of our climate observers in the state report 1.5 to 3.0 inches of rainfall, topped by Grand Meadow (Mower County) with 3.91 inches. Portions of Itasca and St Louis County (Orr) have reported 1 to 1.5 inches of snow already this month, while other places in northeastern Minnesota have reported a trace. Temperatures over the first few days are running about 3 to 7 degrees F cooler than normal.

For the year to date, over 30 climate stations have reported more than 40 inches of precipitation. The community of Rochester (Olmsted County) has recorded their wettest year in history (over 19 inches wetter than normal so far), while many other climate stations are on a pace to do so. Some of the cause for all the surplus precipitation this year stems from a larger number of intense thunderstorms that delivered 2 or more inches in one day. However, some of the cause of surplus precipitation is also due to overall increased frequency of precipitation. For example, Rochester has reported measurable precipitation on 150 days so far this year, that is about 50 percent more than average (fully half of the days in the year have brought precipitation). Similarly, Lamberton (Redwood County) which is 10 inches above normal for the year so far has recorded precipitation on 135 days, which is 44 percent more frequent than their historical average.

The NOAA outlook for October favored a continuation of above normal precipitation across Minnesota during October, so we may not see much relief from this wetness trend.

New Dew Point Record for September 30 On September 30th, this week it felt more like the tropics around Minnesota with dew points in the 60s and low 70s F and temperatures in the 80s F. MSP set a new dew point record Monday afternoon with a reading of 72°F, and a new Heat Index record with a reading of 92°F. The 72°F dew point at MSP was also the highest measured for so late on the calendar. The Minnesota State Climate Office provided a report on this weather.

Weekly Weather Potpourri NOAA scientists featured a new video this week describing how the increased melting in the Arctic and associated release of fresh water is affecting the ocean circulation there. Changes in ocean circulation historically have affected the climate patterns over both North America and Western Europe.

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There is also an interesting article by NOAA’s Tom Di Liberto about the relationship between Arctic Sea Ice and high latitude atmospheric circulation patterns that affect the winter season. This is a complex relationship that many scientists are trying to figure out.

“A 664-year record of grape harvest dates from Burgundy, France, reveals significantly warmer temperatures since 1988.” This is a line from this week’s AGU-EOS newsletter article about climate change showing an impact in the wine industry of France. By mining archival records of grape harvest dates going back to 1354, scientists have reconstructed a 664-year record of temperature traced by fruit ripening. The records, from the Burgundy region of France, represent the longest series of grape harvest dates assembled up until now and reveal strong evidence of climate change in the past few decades.

MPR listener question Is Minnesota's large rainfall this week an effect of the weather system that caused large snowfall in Montana? If so, what happened in Montana?

Answer Somewhat. The same weather pattern that favored heavy snowfall across Montana last weekend, also favored the trajectory of rainstorms across Minnesota this week. Whereas we saw some portions of the state receive 1 to 3 inches of rain this week, many of the higher elevations of Montana saw 15 to 30 inches of snowfall last weekend, with over 40 inches in Toole and Glacier Counties. Dozens of new daily snowfall records were set across Montana, including 36 inches at Galata (elevation 3100 ft) on September 29th.

Twin Cities Almanac for October 4th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 64 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 44 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for October 4th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 89 degrees F in 1922: lowest daily maximum temperature of 41 degrees F in 1885; lowest daily minimum temperature is 24 degrees F in 1935; highest daily minimum temperature of 68 degrees F in 1922; record precipitation of 4.61 inches in 2005; and there was a trace of snowfall on this date in 1935.

Average dew point for October 4th 42 degrees F, with a maximum of 69 degrees F in 2005 and a minimum of 13 degrees F in 1952.

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All-time state records for October 4th The state record high temperature for this date is 94 degrees F at Albert Lea (Freeborn County) in 1997. The state record low temperature for this date is 10 degrees F at Ada (Norman County) in 1935. State record precipitation for this date is 4.61 inches at MSP Airport in 2005; and record snowfall of 3.2 inches at Ada (Norman County) in 2012.

Past Weather Features The coldest October 4th in state history was in 1935 when over 30 climate stations reported a morning low of less than 20°F. As far south as Zumbrota a minimum of 20 degrees F was reported. The daytime high reached only 35°F at Babbitt.

October 4, 1997 was the warmest in state history with over 20 climate stations reporting an afternoon high of 90°F or greater.

October 4-5, 2005 brought heavy rains and rare flash flooding to east central Minnesota. Many parts of Chisago and Washington Counties saw 4 to 7 inches of rainfall, with a rain gage report from Rush City Airport of 9.59 inches. There were widespread road closures and flooded basements.

Outlook Cool and cloudy over the weekend with chances for rain. Drying out later in the day on Sunday, then a warming trend will start later on Monday and carry over into Wednesday. Another chance for rain or even snow showers by late Wednesday and Thursday of next week, with much cooler temperatures to follow.

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First Autumn Rain/Snow Mix with a Winter Storm Minnesota WeatherTalk, October 11, 2019 By Mark Seeley

October 10-11 brought the first seasonal mixture of rain and snow to many parts of Minnesota. Most of the snow was reported in northwestern counties, which were under a Winter Storm Watch Thursday night. Some areas of the Red River Valley were expected to get 4 to 8 inches of snowfall by Saturday, along with winds over 40 mph. Rain fell across much of the rest of the state (in some areas more than one inch) pushing monthly totals past 4 inches at over two dozen climate stations in Minnesota.

Early Look at Change in Climate "Normals" By the end of 2020 we will complete climate record keeping for the second complete decade of the new millennium. By international agreement all of the government weather services will calculate new climate “normals” for locations that have measured daily climate histories. We know already for Minnesota that the climate trends of the past decade have been upward (positive) with respect to both temperature and precipitation. But what magnitude of change might we expect in the new “normals” for the 1991-2020 period, as they replace the 1981-2010 period?

We have some evidence from preliminary data for selected cities in Minnesota. For Minneapolis and St. Paul (MSP), the annual average precipitation will go up again by about 2 percent over the previous period (1981-2010), which will continue the upward trend seen since 1941. Likewise, for Duluth the annual average precipitation will go up by about 2 percent over the previous period. The largest single month increase at MSP has occurred in May with about 15 percent more rainfall, while the largest single month increase at Duluth has been 9 percent more rainfall in June.

For changes in temperature “normals” we find that MSP will see about a 0.7°F increase in the annual mean temperature, while Duluth will see a change in the annual mean value of temperature that is about 0.4°F. Again, these are positive trends that started nearly a century ago. At MSP, the biggest change in monthly mean temperature has occurred in September, with an increase over 1.0°F, while at Duluth the biggest increase in monthly mean temperature has occurred in December with an increase of over 1.5°F.

I am sure we will hear more about the continuation of these trends throughout the next year.

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Weekly Weather Potpourri NOAA features this week an article about the reconstruction of historical weather maps using historical observations of the weather. It provides for another way to look at the geographic distribution of weather elements during some of the most significant historical events.

There is also an interesting article by NOAA’s Tom Di Liberto concerning the rapid development of drought across some of the southeastern states during the month of September. This occurred at such a rapid pace, it is termed a “flash drought.”

In the Western Pacific Ocean Typhoon Hagibis was expected to hit portions of Japan on Friday and Saturday this week with strong winds, heavy rainfall, and large waves. Areas around Tokyo were bracing for the storm. At one time it produced winds over 150 mph and sea wave heights of 55 feet, but it was expected to weaken as it approached the coast.

There was an interesting article in the Washington Post this week about the dramatic climate changes being observed in Siberia and the impacts on natural resources and communities there.

MPR listener question A couple of weeks ago you mentioned that the statewide monthly record for snowfall in October was 19 inches, and that occurred in multiple years. But what is the statewide daily snowfall record for the month of October, and do you think we might break it this month?

Answer The all-time daily record snowfall for October is 16 inches which occurred on October 18, 1916 at Baudette, MN (Lake of the Woods County). As for breaking it this month, it would take a strong winter storm that is slow moving, and I don’t see that happening.

Twin Cities Almanac for October 11th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 61 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 41 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for October 11th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 85 degrees F in 2015: lowest daily maximum temperature of 39 degrees F in 1959; lowest daily minimum temperature is 22 degrees F in 1876; highest daily minimum temperature of 63 degrees F in 1997; record precipitation of 1.36 inches in 1881; and record snowfall of 0.5 inches in 1977.

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Average dew point for October 11th is 41 degrees F, with a maximum of 67 degrees F in 1962 and a minimum of 11 degrees F in 2012

All-time state records for October 11th The state record high temperature for this date is 95 degrees F at Moorhead (Clay County) in 2015. The state record low temperature for this date is 10 degrees F at Ada (Norman County) in 1935. State record precipitation for this date is 3.28 inches at Litchfield (Meeker County) in 1983; and record snowfall is 10.0 inches at Mount Iron (St Louis County) in 1909.

Past Weather Features Early winter gripped the state on October 11, 1876 when northern and central Minnesota counties reported temperatures in the teens, while even southern Minnesota counties saw morning temperatures fall into the low 20s F.

An early winter storm hit northern Minnesota with a mixture of rain and snow over October 10-12, 1909. Many areas received over an inch of rain, while Baudette and Two Harbors received over 2 inches. Other areas of northeastern Minnesota reported 2- 4 inches of snow, and Mount Iron reported 10 inches.

October 11, 2015 brought summer-like conditions to most places with temperatures in the 80s F. Over 20 northern and western communities reported afternoon highs in the 90s F. The cool spot in the state was Grand Marais, with a high of only 58 degrees F.

Outlook Sharply colder this weekend with a rain/snow mix on Saturday. It will be dry on Sunday and Monday, but temperatures will remain cooler than normal. Chance for precipitation returns on Tuesday. A warming trend should start towards the end of next week bringing temperatures back closer to normal.

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Wet October Amplifies Minnesota WeatherTalk, October 18, 2019 By Mark Seeley

Hard to believe but Austin, Wells, Grand Meadow, and Two Harbors climate stations have reported over 5 inches of precipitation so far this month, just past halfway. Another 50 climate stations have reported over 4 inches for the month so far. October is the 7th month of 2019 that is wetter than normal on a statewide basis. Portions of Dodge, Steele, and Olmsted Counties have already reported over 50 inches of precipitation for the year so far. On a statewide basis January 1 to October 16 period is the wettest since statehood in 1858. This wet pattern shows no sign of abating.

During the big storm of last weekend, which hit the Dakotas worse than Minnesota, portions of northern Minnesota reported some significant snowfall amounts. Many areas received between 3 and 9 inches, while Battle Lake (Otter Tail County) reported 13 inches of snow on October 13th setting a new all-time state record for that date (surpassing the 7 inches that Baudette received on October 13, 2006).

Weekly Weather Potpourri NOAA-Climate Prediction Center release a new winter season (Dec-Feb) outlook this week. Their assessment is heavily weighted to recent trends, as well as the Madden Julian Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation. The trend analysis supports the notion that winter will be wetter than normal across the northern tier of central states including Minnesota. So snow lovers may be happy, though we could also see some winter rain showers with oscillating above and below normal temperatures during the winter.

Other NOAA News this week highlights a report about evidence of dramatic climate change in Alaska over the past 5 years and some of its disturbing consequences. One piece of evidence is a dramatic shrinking of the snow season in Alaska, but there are many others.

NOAA-NCEI also reported this week that the global land and ocean surface temperature departure from average for September 2019 tied with 2015 as the highest for the month of September in the 140-year NOAA global temperature dataset record, which dates back to 1880. The year-to-date temperature for 2019 was the second warmest January–September on record.

MPR listener question Yet another thunderstorm woke me up on Wednesday night this week in the Twin Cities. This has happened a lot this year. How many days have brought thunderstorms this year?

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Answer Using the observers from MSP Airport for 2019 there have been 42 days with thunderstorms in the Twin Cities. Obviously not all of them were nocturnal. There distribution by month was:

April brought 3 days May brought 5 days June brought 5 days July brought 9 days August brought 10 days September brought 9 days October has brought 1 day so far

This is not an unusual number of thunderstorm days. There are many years that have brought over 50 days.

Twin Cities Almanac for October 18th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 57 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 39 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for October 18th MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 87 degrees F in 1950; lowest daily maximum temperature of 30 degree F in 1930; lowest daily minimum temperature of 18 degrees F in 1972; highest daily minimum temperature of 61 degrees F in 1950; record precipitation of 1.05 inches in 1979. Record snowfall is 1.3 inches also in 1976.

Average dew point for October 18th is 39°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 65°F in 1971; and the minimum dew point on this date is 9°F in 1972.

All-time state records for October 18th The state record high temperature for this date is 87 degrees F at MSP Airport and Chaska (Carver County) in 1950. The state record low temperature for this date is 5 degrees F at Crookston (Polk County) in 1992. The state record precipitation for this date is 3.25 inches at Deep Portage (Cass County) in 1994. Record snowfall for this date is 16.0 inches at Baudette (Lake of the Woods County) in 1916.

Past Weather Features October 18-19, 1916 brought heavy snow and a blizzard to many portions of northern Minnesota. Many areas received 6-12 inches of heavy wet snow, while Baudette reported a total of 16 inches, the highest single day total ever observed in the month of

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October. October 18, 1972 was likely the coldest in state history with most of the state reporting morning low temperatures in the teens. At least 10 climate stations reported minimum temperatures in the single digits, and the daytime high only reached 27 degrees F at Babbitt.

Outlook Mostly dry and sunny over the weekend with above normal temperatures. Increasing cloudiness later on Sunday with a chance for rain. Rain continues through Monday and Tuesday, but with cooler temperatures settling in. Remaining cooler than normal much of next week with another chance for rain by late Wednesday and into Thursday.

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High Winds and Heavy Rains on October 21st Minnesota WeatherTalk, October 25, 2019 By Mark Seeley

A strong, slow-moving low-pressure system brought high winds and heavy rains to many parts of Minnesota on October 21st. Many areas of the state reported over an inch of rainfall that day, and over 20 climate stations reported more than 2 inches. In fact, many Minnesota climate stations reported new record daily precipitation amounts. Among those setting records were:

Sandstone with 2.75” Isle with 2.41” Mora and Cloquet with 2.26” Leech Lake with 2.23” Floodwood with 2.08” Wolf Ridge Environmental Learning Center with 2.03” Walker with 2.02” Marshall 1.84”

Scores of other climate stations set records as well.

In addition to the rain, there were persistently strong winds. Many areas reported wind gusts between 40 and 60 mph, especially in northeastern Minnesota, where the high winds produced large waves on Lake Superior and a good deal of shoreline erosion. Access to Park Point in Duluth was limited to only emergency vehicles for a time on Monday. You can read more about the storm from the NOAA-National Weather Service.

Following this storm system, cool weather settled across the state bringing more frosts. Many places reported morning lows in the 20s F. In fact, MSP recorded its first frost of the season on Thursday, October 23rd with a reading of 32°F, followed by a reading of 28°F on the 25th.

Record-setting pace for a wet year continues With the rains of this week, the statewide average precipitation for this October is now very near 4.40 inches, ranking as the 6th wettest month of October in Minnesota history (and with six more days to go). Over 25 climate stations have reported over 6 inches of precipitation for the month, with parts of Pine, Mower, and Lake Counties reporting over 7 inches, over 3 times normal.

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As for year-to-date precipitation in 2019 many areas of the state are still on a record setting pace, with a large fraction of the Minnesota landscape already recording over 40 inches for the year. Climate stations reported 12-20 inches of above normal precipitation in 2019 are not uncommon. Rochester stands at 51.08 inches to-date, the wettest ever previous year was 43.94 inches in 1990.

Weekly Weather Potpourri I had the privilege of attending the lecture “Cloud Spotting for Beginners” at the Science Museum of Minnesota on Tuesday night this week (Oct 22nd). The presentation was by Gavin Pretor-Pinney, the founder of the Cloud Appreciation Society. It was a wonderful lecture about the history behind cloud classification, clouds in artwork, and clouds as indicators of the state of the atmosphere. The Manifesto of the Cloud Appreciation Society is well worth repeating:

WE BELIEVE that clouds are unjustly maligned, and that life would be immeasurably poorer without them.

We think that they are Nature’s poetry, and the most egalitarian of her displays, since everyone can have a fantastic view of them.

We pledge to fight ‘blue-sky thinking’ wherever we find it. Life would be dull if we had to look up at cloudless monotony day after day.

We seek to remind people that clouds are expressions of the atmosphere’s moods and can be read like those of a person’s countenance.

We believe that clouds are for dreamers and their contemplation benefits the soul. Indeed, all who consider the shapes they see in them will save money on psychoanalysis bills.

And so we say to all who all listen:

Look up, marvel at the ephemeral beauty, and always remember to live life with your head in the clouds!

Dry conditions and strong winds were contributing to an outbreak of dangerous wildfires in California this week. There were multiple evacuations, and SFO airport was expected to be closed at times due to heavy smoke. Strong winds, over 30 mph, were expected to persist across much of northern California throughout the weekend. The NY Times reports.

Nolan Doesken, former Colorado State Climatologist gave the 27th Annual Kuehnast

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Lecture at the University of Minnesota-St Paul Campus this week. A very interesting story about the birth and evolution of the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow network (CoCoRaHS). You can find out more and see the lecture at the Department of Soil, Water, and Climate web site.

MPR listener question Now that the snow season has begun can you answer a question for us at the Kieran’s Irish Pub in Minneapolis? Which snow seasons in the Twin Cities have produced the most and the least days of snowfall?

Answer We have Twin Cities daily snow records back to 1884-1885. It looks like the snow season of 1950-1951 brought 117 days with snowfall, while that of 1910-1911 only brought 53 days. So those are the extremes. Looks like last snow season, 2018-2019 brought 82 days with snow.

Twin Cities Almanac for October 25th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 54 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 37 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for October 25th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 82 degrees F in 1989: lowest daily maximum temperature of 30 degrees F in 1887; lowest daily minimum temperature is 12 degrees F in 1887; highest daily minimum temperature of 62 degrees F in 2000; record precipitation of 0.75 inches in 2012; and record snowfall of 0.2 inches in 1942.

Average dew point for October 25th 35 degrees F, with a maximum of 63 degrees F in 2000 and a minimum of 8 degrees F in 1962.

All-time state records for October 25th The state record high temperature for this date is 87 degrees F at New Ulm (Brown County) in 1927. The state record low temperature for this date is -10 degrees F at St Vincent (Kittson County) in 1887. State record precipitation for this date is 3.22 inches at Lake City (Wabasha County) in 1963; and record snowfall of 15.0 inches at Sandy Lake (Aitkin County) in 1942.

Past Weather Features Mid-winter cold prevailed across the state on October 25, 1887. Morning lows were mostly in single digits above or below zero, and much of the state landscape had snow on the ground. The afternoon high temperature only climbed to 21 degrees F at

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Rochester.

October 25, 1927 was the warmest in state history as most Minnesota communities saw afternoon temperatures climb into the 70s and 80s F. New Ulm started out with a morning low of 42 degrees F, but saw the temperature climb all the way to 87°F.

An early winter storm brought heavy snowfall to many parts of central and northern Minnesota over October 24-26, 1942. Broad areas of the state received between 5 and 10 inches, while some north-central and northeastern communities reported 11-15 inches of snow.

Outlook Sunny with near normal temperatures to start the weekend. Then falling temperatures later on Sunday. Much cooler than normal next week with repeated frosts most nights. Chance for showers (rain or snow) by Wednesday and Thursday.

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Cold Trend Continues Minnesota WeatherTalk, November 08, 2019 By Mark Seeley

The trend for colder than normal temperatures in Minnesota that was so significant in the month of October has continued this month, with most areas averaging from 9 to 12 degrees F cooler than normal for the first week of November. Many northern Minnesota communities have already seen overnight lows in the single digits this month. Brimson (St Louis County) reported a morning low of -1°F on the 6th, while Babbitt (St Louis County) reported 0°F that same morning. Also there have been subzero Wind Chill values reported from many parts of the state.

Many areas of the state have reported repeated light snow falls this month, while on November 6th (Wed) many southern counties reported 4-6 inches of snowfall. For the near term forecast period significant amounts of more snowfall are not likely, but continuation of the colder than normal temperatures is expected to last through the 3rd week of the month.

Weekly Weather Potpourri The firearm deer hunting season opener is this Saturday (November 9) and it looks to be cloudy with a chance for precipitation in most parts of the state. Temperatures will be 5-8 degrees cooler than normal. You can read more about the climate history of the deer hunting season at the climate history at the Minnesota State Climate Office web site.

On November 8, 1870, the first storm warning was issued by the U.S. Army Signal Corps, the precursor to the National Weather Service. President U.S. Grant and the Congress had given them authority to issue forecasts for threatening weather conditions and they did so that day for a Great Lakes Storm, a typical “Gales of November” storm referenced in Gordon Lightfoot’s famous song “The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald.”

Cyclone Matmo was moving across the Bay of Bengal this week, while gradually strengthening on its way north. Matmo packed winds of 65 knots / 75 mph / 120 km/h with a central pressure of around 985 mbar. Matmo has a long life as it formed in the South China Sea, crossed the Indochinese peninsula and re-intensified in the Bay of Bengal. It will continue north/northeast towards the possible landfall in the SW Bangladesh this weekend.

MPR listener question BRRRR! We see that the forecast calls for just single digit low temperatures by early next week around Minnesota. This seems unusual. How often does this happen in the first half of November?

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Answer For the Twin Cities climate history back to 1871 single digit low temperatures during the first half of November are indeed a bit unusual, happening about once every 5 years or so. In 1966, 1986, and 1991 there were even some sub-zero low temperature readings in the Twin Cities during the first half of November.

Up north, it is far more common to have single digit low temperatures the first two weeks of November. In fact, at Roseau, MN this happens an average of two times every year, and in 1935 during the first half of November they recorded 13 nights with low temperatures in the single digits or colder.

Twin Cities Almanac for November 8th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 46 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 30 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation). MSP Local Records for November 8th:

MSP records for this date include highest daily maximum temperature of 77 degrees F in 1999; lowest daily maximum temperature of 25 degree F in 1991; lowest daily minimum temperature of 1 degrees F in 1991; highest daily minimum temperature of 53 degrees F in 2006; record precipitation of 1.51 inches in 1932. Record snowfall is 8.5 inches also in 1943. Average dew point for November 8th is 28°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 54°F in 1977; and the minimum dew point on this date is -3°F in 1991. All-time state records for November 8th: The state record high temperature for this date is 83 degrees F at New Ulm (Brown County) in 2006. The state record low temperature for this date is -14 degrees F at Mankato (Blue Earth County) in 1991. The state record precipitation for this date is 3.45 inches at Winona (Winona County) in 1945. Record snowfall for this date is 16.0 inches at Vesta (Redwood County) in 1943.

Past Weather Features An ice storm and heavy snowfall occurred across Minnesota over November 6-8, 1943. The storm produced heavier snowfalls in some areas than the more famous Armistice Day and Halloween Blizzards and caused significant shoreline damage to the Lake Superior area. This storm, coming from the south, started out as rain, changing to freezing rain and sleet, then finally heavy snow. Occurring over a weekend (Saturday through Monday), the storm stranded many Minnesota duck hunters in the countryside, though it did not result in many fatalities because the temperature drop was modest (about 8-10 degrees F) compared to those of the Armistice Day and Halloween Blizzards (over 40 degrees F drop). A total of five storm-related fatalities were reported across the state. This storm produced a great deal of ice, up to 3 inches thick on some power lines in central Minnesota. Over 1700 power and telephone poles fell down as a result. The ice also caused numerous accidents and put a stop to train, plane, and

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streetcar traffic. When the temperature dropped sufficiently to produce snow on the 8th, great amounts piled up across southern and central counties. some of the larger amounts, and still records for the date, include 22 inches at Faribault, 20 inches at Bird Island, 20 inches at Redwood Falls, 22 inches at Marshall, and 18 inches at Springfield. Strong winds of 30 to 40 mph produced enormous drifts in some areas. In Cottonwood County, 15 ft drifts closed state highways 71 and 30, and near Windom an Omaha bound train was completed buried in a snow drift. Duluth and other cities along the north shore of Lake Superior reported enormous waves and erosion damage. Winds from the northeast gusted to near 45 mph. Sixty-five ore carriers took refuge in Duluth-Superior harbor. Fortunately, following the storm, relatively dry, mild weather took hold and soon dissipated the snow cover.

The coldest November 8th came in 1991 with over 40 climate stations reporting sub-zero morning low temperatures. Both Faribault and Waseca reported a high temperature of only 15°F that day, with ample snow on the ground.

The warmest November 8th was in 1999 when over 60 climate stations reported an afternoon high temperature of 70°F or greater. Portions of western Minnesota saw the temperature climb into the 80s F.

Outlook Increasing cloudiness on Saturday with somewhat moderating temperatures, though still cooler than normal. A chance for rain or snow. Then predominately dry Sunday through Wednesday with cooler than normal temperatures. Chance for snow again by late Wednesday and Thursday.

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Near historic cold during the first two weeks of November Minnesota WeatherTalk, November 15, 2019 By Mark Seeley

The first two weeks of November have been near historically cold levels for many states in the Midwest, as well as the eastern half of the country. Thousands of climate stations have reported setting new record cold maximum and minimum daily temperatures. In the Minnesota climate network approximately 150 daily cold maximum temperature records have been tied or broken, while 135 cold daily minimum temperature records have been tied or broken, most of these since the 7th of November.

As many as 84 Minnesota climate stations have reported subzero temperature readings this week, with -21°F at Isabella (Lake County) on the 12th. Even southern Minnesota communities have seen the thermometer drop below zero with -1°F reported from Waseca and Grand Meadow, and -2°F reported from Caledonia (Houston County). The maximum temperature of 9°F at Hibbing on the 11th set a record cold high temperature value for the date.

On a statewide basis the average temperature for November over the first two weeks was 22°F, ranking as the 2nd coldest first half of the month. Here is a list of the statewide coldest first two weeks of November (since 1895), showing the top five:

1991 20.2°F 2019 22.0°F 1995 22.8°F 1966 23.5°F 1911 23.8°F

BTW last November (2018) ranked as the 7th coldest first two weeks coming in with a statewide average of 25.8°F. So, we have had two years in a row with cold starts to November.

For the Twin Cities and its strong urban heat island it has been a cold first two weeks of the month as well, tying the record cold high temperature for the 11th with a reading of just 18°F. Here is a list of the coldest first two weeks of November in the Twin Cities climate record (coldest five):

1991 22.3°F 2019 26.9°F 1966 27.1°F 1873 27.2°F

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1911 27.3°F As a result of the unusual cold, agricultural soils are beginning to freeze up for the winter season with frost depths in some areas already down to 6-12 inches. Lake ice cover has begun to form as well. But is still quite unsafe for human traffic. You can keep track of lake ice-in dates at the DNR Climate Office web site.

One further note: the compilation of seven colder than normal months across Minnesota during 2019 (Jan-May, as well as Oct, Nov) has produced a mean statewide temperature for the year that ranks among the 15 coldest in history, a real aberration in the context of our multi-decade long warming trend in the state.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Heavy, wet snow disrupted travel across mid and southern Wales this week. Flooding also occurred in some areas and a few trains between Gloucester and Cardiff were delayed or cancelled. More from the BBC.

The Weather Underground reported this week on the climate odds for having a White Thanksgiving across the nation. The best odds of a white Thanksgiving in the Lower 48 states are 60 to 80% in far northern New England, the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, far northwestern Wisconsin, northern Minnesota, and northeastern North Dakota.

Widespread, harmful algal blooms are becoming more common in freshwater bodies around the globe. This comes from a study published in the journal Nature using remote sensing techniques for detection of the algae. One of the conclusions: “Summertime algal blooms are indeed worsening in large freshwater lakes around the world—and climate change may be undercutting efforts to combat the problem.” You can read more from the AGU-EOS this week.

MPR listener question I am writing to you from Canby, MN (Yellow Medicine County). Earlier this month I put up a shed next to my barn, but I have not been able to put a coat of paint on it. I need 50 degrees F for that to happen. Do you think we will have a day with the temperature that high yet this month?

Answer I would not be optimistic about that if I were you. If you do come close to 50°F it may be this Saturday (November 16) between noon and 3pm, so you might be ready with your paint brush then. This Saturday certainly looks like the best day to wrap up outdoor chores.

Twin Cities Almanac for November 15th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 41 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 27 degrees F (plus or minus 11 139

degrees F standard deviation). MSP Local Records for November 15th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 69 degrees F in 1953: lowest daily maximum temperature of 13 degrees F in 1932; lowest daily minimum temperature is 1 degrees F in 1940; highest daily minimum temperature of 55 degrees F in 1930; record precipitation of 1.58 inches in 1996; and record snowfall of 5.1 inches in 1956.

Average dew point for November 15th is 29 degrees F, with a maximum of 54 degrees F in 2001 and a minimum of 0 degrees F in 1940.

All-time state records for November 15th The state record high temperature for this date is 76 degrees F at Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) in 1953. The state record low temperature for this date is -36 degrees F at Angus (Polk County) in 1911. State record precipitation for this date is 2.68 inches at Stillwater (Washington County) in 1944; and record snowfall is 11.1 inches at Duluth (St Louis County) in 1956.

Past Weather Features By far the coldest November 15 in state history came in 1911. Subzero low temperatures prevailed across central and northern counties, while southern Minnesota saw temperatures in the single digits. Portions of Clearwater, Kittson and Polk Counties reported lows of -30°F or colder, with the daytime high at Hallock only reaching -2°F.

The warmest November 15th was in 1953 when afternoon highs reached the 60s F across most parts of the state. Portions of 12 southern and western counties saw afternoon temperatures in the 70s F.

Over November 15-16, 1956 an early season winter storm brought heavy snows to many parts of the state. Many areas reported 4-8 inches of snow and portions of Stearns, St Louis, and Carlton Counties reported over 10 inches with some road closures.

Outlook Near normal temperatures over the weekend with a chance for light rain or snow later Saturday and into Sunday. Continued chance for rain or snow on Monday with moderating temperatures during next week a degree or two either side of normal. Another chance for precipitation by late Wednesday, again with moderating temperatures.

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Temperature Moderation Brings More Precipitation Minnesota WeatherTalk, November 22, 2019 By Mark Seeley

After enduring the coldest first two weeks of November since 1991, temperatures over the past week have moderated from a few degrees warmer than normal to several degrees warmer than normal. With this change in pattern, more clouds and moisture have been prevalent too. Some areas of the state have seen precipitation (rain or snow) on four of the past five days. In fact, portions of Fillmore, Wabasha, Olmstead, Mower, Freeborn, and Faribault Counties have reported between 1.5 and 2 inches of precipitation for the month so far. And up north many parts of Cass, Lake, St Louis, and Cook Counties reported 5 to 9 inches of snowfall on Wednesday and Thursday of this week. Both Cass Lake and Isabella reported record snowfall on Thursday morning (Nov 21) with over 9 inches, while Gunflint Lake reported a new record snowfall amount of 8 inches, and Babbitt a new record amount of 7.5 inches.

It appears that this moderating temperature pattern and increased precipitation pattern across Minnesota may prevail for the rest of the month according to the outlook models. Northern Minnesota especially is expected to have above normal snowfall for the rest of November and into the first week of December.

New Seasonal Climate Outlook The NOAA-Climate Prediction Center released a new seasonal outlook on Thursday of this week. For the December-February period (core of the winter season) they call for equal probability of above or below normal temperatures prevailing across Minnesota. But, for most of the northern USA, including Minnesota, they see a continuation of the wetter than normal weather pattern, an indication of above normal snowfall. Snow lovers should be pleased with this outlook.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Tropical Storm Sebastien continues to gain strength in the central Atlantic Ocean where it could become a rare late-season hurricane. Sebastien is more than 400 miles north- northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. The tropical storm is moving northeast into the open Atlantic waters and remains no threat to land.

Climate change will increase the size of stalled high-pressure systems that can cause heat waves, droughts, and other extreme weather, according to a new study from Rice University. Atmospheric blocking high events are a feature of mid-latitude climates and appear to be increasing in length (number of days) as the climate changes. You can read more at the Science Daily web site.

A new report highlighted in this week’s AGU-EOS details the consequences of climate

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change for worker productivity and public health on a country by country basis. In the USA worker productivity has declined in some areas due to limits on higher temperature exposure (mostly in agriculture and some industries), while elderly citizens have suffered more from Heat Waves in recent summers.

MPR listener question My husband and I live in Walker and we are avid cross-country skiers and always look forward to the snow season. Most weekends you can find us exploring trails in central and northern Minnesota. We were wondering what are some of the maximum snow depths that have been recorded during the month of November, which is usually the first month that we can ski?

Answer On a statewide basis some portions of Norman, Beltrami, Lake of the Woods, Koochiching, St Louis, Cook, and Lake Counties have seen over 30 inches of snow depth during November (these years include 1933, 1965, 1977, and 1991. The greatest November snow depth in your home community of Walker was in 1965 when it was 20 inches deep during the last week of the month. In the average year Walker sees a snow depth of about 6-7 inches by the end of November.

Twin Cities Almanac for November 22nd The average MSP high temperature for this date is 37 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 23 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for November 22nd MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 60 degrees F in 2012; lowest daily maximum temperature of 12 degree F in 1921; lowest daily minimum temperature of -6 degrees F in 1880; highest daily minimum temperature of 45 degrees F in 2009; record precipitation of 0.74 inches in 2016. Record snowfall is 5.5 inches in 1898.

Average dew point for November 22nd is 29°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 53°F in 1963; and the minimum dew point on this date is -7°F in 1970.

All-time state records for November 22nd The state record high temperature for this date is 72 degrees F at Preston (Fillmore County) in 1990 and at St James (Watonwan County) in 2012. The state record low temperature for this date is -26 degrees F at Ada (Norman County) in 1896. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.18 inches at Willow River (Pine County) in 1898. Record snowfall for this date is 13.0 inches at Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) also in 1898.

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Past Weather Features November 22, 1896 was the coldest in state history. Following a recent snowstorm, a polar high- pressure system descended over the state from Canada and brought mid- winter cold. Most places saw subzero morning low temperatures. Many parts of northern Minnesota saw the thermometer register temperatures in the minus 20s F.

An early winter snowstorm brought 7-13 inches of snowfall to many parts of Minnesota over November 21-22, 1898. Sleighs were used for Thanksgiving transportation.

The warmest November 22 occurred in 2012 when over 80 climate stations reported afternoon high temperatures of 60°F or greater. Springfield, Albert Lea, St James, and Winnebago reached 70° or higher.

Outlook Pretty good weekend for November coming up with plenty of sunshine and generally above normal temperatures. Continued sunny and mild on Monday, but then increasing cloudiness with a chance for rain or snow by Tuesday. Near normal temperatures but chances for light rain or snow on Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day as well.

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Preliminary Climate Summary for November 2019 Minnesota WeatherTalk, November 29, 2019 By Mark Seeley

November continued the trend of October with mean monthly temperatures that ranged from 2 to 4 degrees F cooler than normal. The first two weeks were near record cold, while during the last two weeks of the month temperatures moderated with greater cloud cover. Extremes for the month were 55°F at Windom (Cottonwood County) on the 21st and -21°F at Isabella (Lake County) on the 12th.

Precipitation for the month was mixed, with some areas wetter than normal, many areas drier than normal, and some climate stations were close to normal for monthly amounts. Over 2.25 inches fell in portions of Olmsted, Winona, Houston, Faribault, and Mower Counties. Austin topped the list with 2.63 inches. Many parts of western Minnesota were drier than normal with Wheaton (Traverse County) reporting less than a tenth of an inch for the month. Yet more precipitation, perhaps 0.5 to 1.0 inches is expected before the end of the month.

Major snowstorms occurred over the 21st, as well as the 26th and 27th. Portions of Cook, Lake, and St Louis Counties reported over 15 inches, topped by nearly 27 inches at Isabella (Lake County) up on the highlands of the north shore of Lake Superior. Long- term climate stations that reported record snowfalls on the 21st included: Cass Lake with 4.5”, Tower with 7.0”, Waskish with 5.0”, Gunflint Lake with 8.0”, and 4.6” at Embarrass. Some other stations reported over 9 inches on the 21st. For the 27th some of the following long-term climate stations reported record amounts: Kimball 8.5”, Cambridge, Faribault, and Wells 8.0”, Jordan 7.8”, MSP 7.2”, Owatonna and Moose Lake 7.0”, Windom 6.8”, and Winnebago 6.5”.

More detail can be found at the Minnesota State Climatology Office web site.

Wet Year Update As we continue to see excess precipitation fall in many areas of Minnesota, more long- term climate stations have already reported their wettest year of record. Some of these include: • Rochester (Olmsted County) 53.51” • Owatonna (Steele County) 51.46” • Faribault (Rice County) 48.40” • Zumbrota (Goodhue County) 46.30” • Winona Dam (Winona County) 44.31” • Marshall (Lyon County) 43.38” • MSP Airport (Hennepin County) 40.89” • Pipestone (Pipestone County) 39.70”

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• Minneota (Lyon County) 39.62” • Artichoke Lake (Big Stone County) 35.60” • Browns Valley (Traverse County) 35.37”

I am sure yet more annual precipitation records will fall in Minnesota as we go through the month of December 2019.

MPR listener question What are the all-time temperature extremes for the month of November in Minnesota?

Answer All-time extremes for November include: • 84°F at Winona (Wnona County) on November 1, 1950 • -45°F at Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) on November 30, 1896

Twin Cities Almanac for November 29th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 33 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 19 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for November 29th MSP records for this date include highest daily maximum temperature of 62 degrees F in 1998; lowest daily maximum temperature of -4-degree F in 1875; lowest daily minimum temperature of -25 degrees F in 1875; highest daily minimum temperature of 50 degrees F in 1998; record precipitation of 1.38 inches in 1991. Record snowfall is 12.6 inches also in 1991.

Average dew point for November 29th is 18°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 57°F in 1998; and the minimum dew point on this date is -24°F in 1958.

All-time state records for November 29th The state record high temperature for this date is 68 degrees F at Albert Lea (Freeborn County) in 1998. The state record low temperature for this date is -39 degrees F at Tower (St Louis County) in 1896. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.85 inches at Farmington (Dakota County) in 1934. Record snowfall for this date is 16.0 inches at Cambridge (Isanti County) in 1991.

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Past Weather Features The two coldest November 29ths in state history were in 1875 and 1896. In 1875 no temperatures above zero degrees F were reported, even daily highs. Morning lows were in the minus 20s and minus 30s F. This same pattern repeated on November 29, 1896 with many climate stations reporting morning lows in the minus 20s F and minus 30s F. The daytime high only reached -15°F at Crookston and Roseau. A slow-moving winter storm delivered 8 to 16 inches of snowfall to many parts of the state over November 29-30, 1991. It proved to be the snowiest November in state history, with many areas receiving over 30 inches for the month. By far the warmest November 29th occurred in 1998, with nearly half of the state reporting daytime highs in the 60s F under sunny skies. Many golf courses were open for golfers to test the fairways and greens.

Outlook Near normal temperatures over the weekend, but with mixed precipitation (rain and snow) in the south and mostly snow in the north. Some areas will get significant amounts. After Sunday it will be mostly cooler than normal temperatures and dry for the first several days of December.

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Roller Coaster Temperature Pattern Continues Minnesota WeatherTalk, December 13, 2019 By Mark Seeley

Over a dozen climate stations reported a low temperature of -20 degrees F or colder on December 11th, with -30 degrees F reported at Isabella (Lake County). Furthermore, on the 10th, a number of places never saw the thermometer rise above zero, including Otter Tail which observed a high temperature that day of -4 degrees F. All but a handful of climate stations have recorded subzero low temperatures this week, in sharp contrast to the relatively mild temperatures that prevailed earlier in the month. A return to a milder temperature pattern is seen for much of the rest of December, so much so that the month may end up being warmer than normal overall, rather than the 9th cooler than normal month for the year 2019.

Some areas up north have accumulated over 20 inches of snowfall this month, but the outlooks for the remainder of the month suggest less than normal snowfall. This outlook suggests that little more precipitation will be added by the end of the month to the very high annual precipitation being reported around the state for the year 2019. Over 50 climate stations have reported at least 45 inches of precipitation for the year, and at least 10 climate stations have reported over 50 inches. It is a foregone conclusion that 2019 will probably be the wettest year in history on a statewide basis, surpassing 1977 and 2016.

Weekly Weather Potpourri This week AGU-EOS reports on a recent study coordinated through the Max Planck Institute that reveals soil erosion acceleration began as a result of human activity over 4000 years ago. Many samples of lake sediments show this to be the case, primarily as a result of deforestation to make room for agriculture. Such acceleration continues today as agriculture develops in forested landscapes.

Jonathan Erdman with the Weather Underground provides a wonderful perspective on the pitfalls of snow forecasting this week in an article on their web site. Snow is the most difficult meteorological element to forecast precisely, and Mr. Erdman delineates all the reasons that this is true, even with the modern technology we deploy.

MPR listener question What is the difference between freezing rain and freezing drizzle?

Answer Good question. The distinction between freezing rain and freezing drizzle is technically the droplet size. Drizzle consists of droplets which are 0.2 to 0.5 millimeters (.01 to .02 inches) in diameter. Rain droplets are larger diameters. Another important characteristic

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difference is that being of such a small size drizzle tends to be more uniformly dispersed and often appears to float around among air currents before it finally lands on the surface. It is most often very light and of little significance, generally recorded as only a trace in a rain gage for example. On the other hand, the larger rain droplets tend to fall in shafts of varying density. In the freezing form, both kinds of precipitation fall as liquid, but freeze on contact with subfreezing surfaces. December can be a month with a higher incidence of freezing drizzle and freezing rain.

Twin Cities Almanac for December 13th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 27 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 13 degrees F (plus or minus 15 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for December 13th MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 53 degrees F in 1891; lowest daily maximum temperature of -5 degree F in 1917; lowest daily minimum temperature of -21 degrees F in 1917; highest daily minimum temperature of 38 degrees F in 2015; record precipitation of 0.48 inches in 1975. Record snowfall is 6.3 inches in 1983.

Average dew point for December 13th is 10°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 44°F in 2014; and the minimum dew point on this date is -26°F in 1961

All-time state records for December 13th The state record high temperature for this date is 62 degrees F at Rochester (Olmsted County) in 1908 and at Lynd (Lyon County) in 1921. The state record low temperature for this date is -42 degrees F at Ada (Norman County) in 1901. The state record precipitation for this date is 1.92 inches at Hinckley (Pine County) in 1968. Record snowfall for this date is 12.8 inches at Hibbing (St Louis County) also in 1995.

Past Weather Features Perhaps the coldest December 13th in state history was in 1901. Most areas of the state saw morning low temperatures of -20 degrees F or colder. Many areas in northern Minnesota were -30 degrees F or colder, while the high temperature at Ada only reached -25 degrees F.

A slow moving winter storm brought heavy snowfall to the state over December 13-15, 1983. Many areas of the state reported 8 to 15 inches of snowfall, with over 17 inches reported at Two Harbors.

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Outlook Cloudy to start the weekend, then becoming sunnier, but temperatures will continue cooler than normal for this time of year well into next week. It looks like it will be relatively dry as well until near the end of next week.

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Statewide Recap for the Climate of 2019 Minnesota WeatherTalk, December 20, 2019 By Mark Seeley

As we wrap up 2019, it is still likely that 2019 will go into the record books as the wettest year in Minnesota history on a statewide basis, with average precipitation totals across the state of over 35 inches for the year. Seven of the 12 months delivered above normal precipitation to the state in 2019. February of 2019 was the 2nd wettest in state history while September was the 3rd wettest in state history. In addition, October ranked as the 9th wettest in state history. Portions of Rice, Steele, Olmsted, Dodge, and Houston Counties reported over 50 inches of precipitation for the year. On balance most places reported from 5 to 15 inches above normal precipitation for the year. At least 730 daily precipitation records were set or tied within the Minnesota climate network this year. Also, February of 2019 was the snowiest in state history with most places reporting between 30 and 40 inches, and Rosemount reporting over 56 inches! Another marker of how wet the year was can be found in the high-volume flow measured this year in almost all of Minnesota’s watersheds, and the rising lake levels around the state.

Temperature-wise eight of the 12 months in 2019 delivered average temperatures that were cooler than normal, with the first 5 months of the year all below normal. Although not many high temperature records were set this year in Minnesota, there were plenty of daily episodes with Heat Index values above 100 degrees F, thanks to some very high dew points.

Updated Seasonal Climate Outlook On Thursday, December 19th the NOAA Climate Prediction Center released a new seasonal climate outlook for January through March. Despite some tendencies toward both warmer than normal and wetter than normal weather conditions across Minnesota over the balance of December, the January through March period is seen as one that will tend towards cooler and wetter across our region. We will see if this materializes. The wetness trend in our region is a stronger signal than the cooler than normal temperature trend, at least statistically.

Weekly Weather Potpourri The UK Met Office this week provided a news release that their climate models suggest that 2020 will continue to show a sharply upward temperature trend globally. Their statement includes: 2020 will likely be 1.11C warmer than the average between 1850- 1900, The year ahead is set to extend the series of the warmest years on record to six in a row. Scientists say the strongest factor causing the rise is greenhouse gas emissions. The world first broke through one degree above pre-industrial temperatures back in 2015. Each year since then has seen temperatures close to or above this mark. The warmest year on record is 2016 when a strong El Niño made a significant

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difference. From Science Daily this week: University of Massachusetts reported results from a continental scale study of changes in bird migration patterns: “In what the authors believe is one of the first studies to examine climate change impact on the timing of bird migration on a continental scale, researchers report that spring migrants were likely to pass certain stops earlier now than they would have 20 years ago. Also, temperature and migration timing were closely aligned, with the greatest changes in migration timing occurring in the regions warming most rapidly. Timing shifts were less apparent in fall, they add.”

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology reported record-setting high temperatures across most of the country. Many places on Wednesday (December 18) reported daytime highs of 107 degrees F or greater. Nullarbor in South Australia set the record for the hottest December day on record, recording 49.9C (121.8). The Guardian reported on this story in detail.

MPR listener question We have a lot of standing corn around the region. The last several times it has gotten noticeably below zero, we have noticed on the pickup thermometer that the temperature would drop 4-5 degrees from where it was at (after a short lag) when he had corn on both sides of the road and rise back to where it was after we drove out of the corn. No matter the elevation or direction. Sure enough, last night on my way home we have 2 fields west of the farm and I experienced the same thing again, started out at -12 and went to -16 while I was between the corn and back up to -12 further down the road. Any ideas why?

Answer Yes, this is a symptom of the microclimate effect brought about by variable mixing of the air near the ground. Where the corn rows disrupt the horizontal flow of the air (wind), the air can settle into cold layers much more readily and the temperature will drop. When you are driving in more open space without the corn impinging on the air flow, the air will mix enough to keep the temperature a few degrees F higher. Rudolf Geiger, a German climatologist wrote about this effect back in the 1930s.

Twin Cities Almanac for December 20th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 26 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 11 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for December 20th MSP records for this date include highest daily maximum temperature of 51 degrees F in 1967; lowest daily maximum temperature of -11 degree F in 1916; lowest daily minimum temperature of -24 degrees F in 1916; highest daily minimum temperature of 151

39 degrees F in 1923; record precipitation of 0.74 inches in 1902. Record snowfall is 4.6 inches also in 2010.

Average dew point for December 20th is 9°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 44°F in 1967; and the minimum dew point on this date is -30°F in 1963.

All-time state records for December 20th The state record high temperature for this date is 69 degrees F at Faribault (Rice County) in 1923. The state record low temperature for this date is -49 degrees F at Tower (St Louis County) in 1983. The state record precipitation for this date is 1.50 inches at Worthington (Nobles County) in 1902. Record snowfall for this date is 13.0 inches at Le Sueur (Le Sueur County) in 1887.

Past Weather Features A winter storm brought 5 to 12 inches of snowfall to many parts of Minnesota on December 20, 1887. It was one of several heavy snowfalls of the challenging winter of 1887-1888.

December 20, 1923 brought very warm temperatures to Minnesota with many areas reporting highs in the 40s and 50s F. Maple Plain and Faribault reached the 60s F. Overnight lows did not drop below the freezing mark.

December 20, 1983 was one of the coldest December days in history. Many areas reported low temperatures of -40 degrees F or colder. Waseca and Preston in southern Minnesota dropped to -30 degrees F, while the high temperature at Willmar only reached -15 degrees F.

Outlook Mostly sunny weekend coming up with high temperatures well above normal on both Saturday and Sunday. The warming trend will prevail throughout most of Christmas week. It will likely be a dry week for most areas as well.

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More Summary Remarks for the Climate of 2019 Minnesota WeatherTalk, December 27, 2019 By Mark Seeley

A cooler and wetter than normal year: Overall wettest in state history and the first time that the statewide mean annual precipitation has exceeded 35 inches.

-Wettest place in the state: Owatonna 0.8E (Steele County) with 56.50 inches of precipitation (this could change with the expected weekend storm)

-Driest place in the state: Hallock (Kittson County) with 22.69”, still nearly 1.5 inches greater than normal.

-Wettest month of the year: September with an average of over 6 inches of rainfall statewide.

-Snowiest February in state history: Average snowfall across the state was 28”.

-Largest 1-day rainfall event of 2019 was 7.42 inches at Edgerton (Pipestone County) on September 9th.

-Longest period without measurable precipitation: 22 days (March 16 to April 6) at Hallock (Kittson County).

-Hottest day of the year: July 19 when over 100 climate stations reported high temperatures from 90°F and 98 F. With dew points between 75-80 degrees F Heat Index Values ranged from 100-112 degrees F that day.

-Coldest day of the year: January 31 and February 1 when many areas reported low temperatures ranging from -30 to -50 degrees F, with Wind Chill Values of -55 to -65 degrees F.

Weekly Weather Potpourri The BBC reports that Typhoon Phanfone caused serious damage in the Philippines this week and left up to 28 people dead. The storm packed winds of 110-120 mph, high seas and intense rainfall that produced widespread flooding. It remains a tropical storm in the South China Sea, but it is expected to dissipate over the next few days.

The NOAA-Storm Prediction Center reports that in 2019 the month of May produced the most tornadoes across the country with 556 confirmed touchdowns. The fewest were in the months of January and November with less than 20 reported. Final statistics are uncertain yet for the year, but there were over 40 deaths due to tornado activity in 2019, a higher number than in recent years. Twenty-three of those deaths occurred during the 153

tornado outbreak of March 3rd across the state of Alabama.

In the AGU-EOS bulletin this week an article by David Shultz describes the recent findings about rapid changes in the Arctic climate. “The high northern latitudes of the Arctic—seen as the canary in the coal mine for modern climate change—are warming at an outsized rate compared with elsewhere on the planet. Already, experts predict that the Arctic Ocean might be ice free during summer months in as little as 40–50 years. The trend has researchers concerned that resulting feedbacks, especially reductions in Earth’s albedo as ice increasingly melts, may lead to even more rapid changes in the global climate.

MPR listener question You and Cathy have talked a lot about how wet it has been in 2019. Which Minnesota communities have recorded their wettest year?

Answer Too many to list here. But of those with a 50 year or longer climate record, the climate stations reporting a new record total precipitation in 2019 are:

MSP 41.73” Rochester 54.31” Morris 34.28” Faribault 49.33” Owatonna 52.11” Georgetown 34.60” Pipestone 40.54” Marshall 44.24” Zumbrota 47.67” Canby 38.51” Minneota 46.16” Artichoke Lake 36.37”

These totals of course may change upward over the last weekend of the year.

Twin Cities Almanac for December 27th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 27 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 9 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation).

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MSP Local Records for December 27th MSP records for this date include highest daily maximum temperature of 46 degrees F in 1959; lowest daily maximum temperature of -9 degree F in 1924; lowest daily minimum temperature of -24 degrees F in 1886; highest daily minimum temperature of 38 degrees F in 2003; record precipitation of 0.70 inches in 1959. Record snowfall is 6.0 inches also in 1971.

Average dew point for December 27th is 11°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 46°F in 1959; and the minimum dew point on this date is -34°F in 1924.

All-time state records for December 27th The state record high temperature for this date is 54 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1994. The state record low temperature for this date is -43 degrees F at Orr (St Louis County) in 1933. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.56 inches at Ft Ridgley (Nicollet County) in 1856. Record snowfall for this date is 22.0 inches at Island Lake (St Louis County) in 2009.

Past Weather Features Over December 27-28, 1904 a slow-moving winter storm dumped 5-15 inches of snow across southern and central Minnesota counties. It was the largest snowfall of the month.

December 27, 1928 brought a very warm day to Minnesota with most southern and western communities reported daytime high temperatures in the 40s F. In far western Minnesota portions of Big Stone, Traverse, Stevens, Chippewa, and Lac Qui Parle Counties saw the thermometer hit 50 degrees F. December 27, 1933 was the coldest in state history with nearly every part of Minnesota seeing morning lows in the -20 and - 30s F. Some far northern communities saw temperatures drop into the minus 40s F. The high afternoon temperature never rose above -16° degrees F at Hallock.

Outlook Warmer than normal temperatures over the weekend but a sloppy, and messy mix of precipitation. Broadly there will be a periodic chance for snow, rain, sleet, and freezing rain throughout the weekend. Precipitation will continue into midday Monday. Drier by the middle of next week as temperatures fluctuate near normal to above normal through the end of the week.

Both New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day with be dry, with some periods of sunshine.

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