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Gaining Momentum in Peruvian Agriculture: Opportunities to Increase Productivity and Enhance Competitiveness

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Gaining Momentum in Peruvian Agriculture: Opportunities to Increase Productivity and Enhance Competitiveness Public Disclosure Authorized Gaining Momentum in Peruvian Agriculture: Opportunities to Increase Productivity and Enhance Competitiveness Report produced under the Peru Agriculture Opportunities ASA Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized June 23, 2017 Agriculture Global Practice Environment Global Practice World Bank Group Public Disclosure Authorized Contents Acknowledgments ...................................................................................................... v Executive Summary.................................................................................................... vi Abbreviations and Acronyms ................................................................................... xiv 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................... 15 1.1. Context ....................................................................................................... 15 1.2. Objectives ................................................................................................... 15 2. Peru’s agriculture in transition ........................................................................... 17 2.1. Macro overview .......................................................................................... 17 2.2. Structural transformation ............................................................................ 19 2.3. Changes in land use ..................................................................................... 24 2.4. Domestic food consumption and food-system modernization ...................... 26 2.5. Food system modernization ........................................................................ 31 3. Agricultural performance trends ........................................................................ 33 3.1. Agricultural production ............................................................................... 33 3.2. Agricultural trade ........................................................................................ 34 3.3. Characteristics of Peruvian agriculture ......................................................... 36 3.4. Climate change and agriculture ................................................................... 43 4. Rethinking the contribution of agriculture .......................................................... 46 4.1. Introduction ................................................................................................ 46 4.2. Methodology .............................................................................................. 47 4.3. Analysis and results ..................................................................................... 48 4.4. Discussion ................................................................................................... 51 5. Productivity of Peru’s agriculture ....................................................................... 53 5.1. Introduction ................................................................................................ 53 5.2. Methodology .............................................................................................. 54 5.3. Analysis and results ..................................................................................... 56 ii 5.4. Discussion ................................................................................................... 73 6. Competitiveness of Peru’s agriculture ................................................................ 76 6.1. Competitiveness of Peru: Evidence from global benchmarks ........................ 76 6.2. Efficiency of Peru’s agricultural logistics systems ......................................... 79 6.3. Development of competitive agricultural value chains ................................. 83 7. Evolution of agriculture policies in Peru .............................................................. 94 7.1. Past: Supporting agro-export growth ........................................................... 94 7.2. Present: Addressing regional disparities ...................................................... 98 7.3. Future: Keys to success .............................................................................. 102 8. Summary and conclusions ................................................................................ 105 8.1. Agriculture in Peru: High-level overview .................................................... 105 8.2. Performance of agriculture: The view from ground level ............................ 105 8.3. Key opportunities and entry points............................................................ 108 8.4. Vision for the future .................................................................................. 114 8.5. Operationalizing the vision through regional strategies ............................. 115 9. References ....................................................................................................... 118 Figures Figure 1. Evolution of GDP per capita, Peru vs comparators ........................................................ 17 Figure 2. Rural vs urban population, Peru, 1940-2015.................................................................. 18 Figure 3. Rural and urban incomes, Peru, 2004-2015 ................................................................... 18 Figure 4. Poverty headcount, Peru, 2001-2015............................................................................. 18 Figure 5. Rural and urban poverty, 2004-2015 ............................................................................. 19 Figure 6. Moderate and extreme poverty ..................................................................................... 19 Figure 7. Sectoral decomposition of GDP, Peru, 1990-2015 ......................................................... 20 Figure 8. Agricultural transformation: Peru and its regional, structural and aspirational peers .. 21 Figure 9. Agriculture share of employment, Peru, 1998-2015 ...................................................... 21 Figure 10. Growth of agricultural value added, Peru, 2000-2015 ................................................. 22 Figure 11. Agricultural export trends, Peru ................................................................................... 22 Figure 12. Distribution of agricultural GDP by natural region and department, Peru, 2015 ........ 26 Figure 13. Utilization of agricultural production, by natural region, 2015 ................................... 26 Figure 14. Growth in calorie availability, by product category, 2003-2013 .................................. 27 iii Figure 15. Changes in dietary patterns, Peru, 2005 to 2015 ......................................................... 28 Figure 16. Sources of food, trends and patterns, Peru, 2005 to 2015 .......................................... 30 Figure 17. Supermarket penetration, Peru vs regional comparators, 2013.................................. 32 Figure 18. Average annual growth in agricultural value-added, Peru, 1997-2015 ....................... 33 Figure 19. Evolution of agricultural trade, Peru, 2000 to 2016 ..................................................... 34 Figure 20. Traditional vs. non-traditional agricultural exports, Peru, 2014 .................................. 35 Figure 21. Agricultural trade by partners, Peru, 2016 ................................................................... 36 Figure 22. Crop yields, Peru vs. comparators, 2014 ...................................................................... 38 Figure 23. Growth in in irrigated area, Peru, 1961-2012 .............................................................. 42 Figure 24. Characteristics of irrigation in Peru, 2012 .................................................................... 42 Figure 25. Use of fertilizer and certified seed, Peru, 2012 ............................................................ 43 Figure 26. TFP growth index by natural regions, Peru, 2007-2015 ............................................... 57 Figure 27. Output, Input and TFP Growth Index by Natural Regions (2007-2015) ....................... 58 Figure 28. TFP index, by geographical domain .............................................................................. 59 Figure 29. Input shares of selected crops, by region .................................................................... 61 Figure 30. TFP by farm size, Peru (index, <1 ha = 100) .................................................................. 63 Figure 31. (a) Farm size and output-input ratio, (b) farm size and output per hectare ................ 65 Figure 32. Farm size and input per hectare ................................................................................... 65 Figure 33. Kernel density distributions of technical efficiencies by regions ................................. 69 Figure 34. Kernel density distributions of technical efficiencies by type of farmer ...................... 70 Figure 35. Ease of Doing Business 2016-17, selected results ........................................................ 78 Figure 36. Production and logistics costs, selected products, Peru .............................................. 80 Figure 37. Frequency and nature of transport delays, selected commodities, Peru .................... 82 Figure 38. Requirements associated with increasingly sophisticated agri-food markets ............. 85 Figure 39. Sectoral employment and level of informality, Peru, 2004-2014 ...............................
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