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AUGUST 2018 VOLUME 1, ISSUE 4 Print: ISSN 2576-1021 Online: ISSN 2576-1153 MASTHEAD TABLE OF CONTENTS Staff: The Foundation Publisher: Managing Editor: Assistant Editor: 4 Introducing TNSR’s Fourth Issue: Allies & Enemies Ryan Evans Megan G. Oprea, PhD Autumn Brewington Francis J. Gavin Editor-in-Chief: Associate Editors: Copy Editors: William Inboden, PhD Van Jackson, PhD Katelyn Gough Stephen Tankel, PhD The Scholar 10 Restraining an Ally: Israel, the United States, and Iran’s Nuclear Program, 2011–2012 Daniel Sobelman Editorial Board: Chair, Editorial Board: Editor-in-Chief: Francis J. Gavin, PhD William Inboden, PhD The Strategist Robert J. Art, PhD Beatrice Heuser, PhD Patrick Porter, PhD 42 Bill and Boris: A Window Into a Most Important Post-Cold War Relationship Richard Betts, PhD Michael C. Horowitz, PhD Thomas Rid, PhD James Goldgeier John Bew, PhD Richard H. Immerman, PhD Joshua Rovner, PhD Nigel Biggar, PhD Robert Jervis, PhD Brent E. Sasley, PhD 56 America’s Relation to World Order: Two Indictments, Two Thought Experiments, Philip Bobbitt, JD, PhD Colin Kahl, PhD Elizabeth N. Saunders, PhD and a Misquotation Hal Brands, PhD Jonathan Kirshner, PhD Kori Schake, PhD Philip Bobbitt Joshua W. Busby, PhD James Kraska, SJD Michael N. Schmitt, DLitt 80 From Engagement to Rivalry: Tools to Compete with China Robert Chesney, JD Stephen D. Krasner, PhD Jacob N. Shapiro, PhD Peter Mattis Eliot Cohen, PhD Sarah Kreps, PhD Sandesh Sivakumaran, PhD Audrey Kurth Cronin, PhD Melvyn P. Leffler, PhD Sarah Snyder, PhD Theo Farrell, PhD Fredrik Logevall, PhD Bartholomew Sparrow, PhD Peter D. Feaver, PhD Margaret MacMillan, CC, PhD Monica Duffy Toft, PhD Inman Award Essay Rosemary Foot, PhD, FBA Thomas G. Mahnken, PhD Marc Trachtenberg, PhD Taylor Fravel, PhD Rose McDermott, PhD René Värk, JD 98 Beacon and Warning: Sherman Kent, Scientific Hubris, and the CIA’s Office of Sir Lawrence Freedman, PhD Paul D. Miller, PhD Steven Weber, PhD National Estimates James Goldgeier, PhD Vipin Narang, PhD Amy Zegart, PhD J. Peter Scoblic Michael J. Green, PhD Janne E. Nolan, PhD Kelly M. Greenhill, PhD John Owen, PhD Response Essay Policy and Strategy Advisory Board: 120 Rubles, Dollars, and Power: U.S. Intelligence on the Soviet Economy and Chair: Long-Term Competition Adm. William McRaven, Ret. Austin Long Hon. Elliott Abrams, JD Hon. Kathleen Hicks, PhD Dan Runde Stephen E. Biegun Hon. James Jeffrey David Shedd Hon. Brad Carson Paul Lettow, JD, PhD Hon. Kristen Silverberg, JD The Roundtable Feature Hon. Derek Chollet Hon. Michael Lumpkin Michael Singh, MBA 136 Now What? Lessons for Europe from the NATO Summit Amb. Ryan Crocker Hon. William J. Lynn, JD Adm. James G. Stavridis, Ret., PhD Hon. Eric Edelman, PhD Kelly Magsamen Hon. Christine E. Wormuth Ulrike Franke Hon. John Hamre, PhD Gen. David Petraeus, Ret. Designed by We are Flint, printed by Linemark Introducing TNSR’s Fourth Issue: Allies & Enemies This past summer, after 31 years as a member of its editorial Introducing TNSR’s leadership team, Sean Lynn Jones announced his retirement from running International Security. Sean is a giant among journal Fourth Issue: editors and will be missed. Allies & Enemies s an undergraduate at the University of political consequences during the most dangerous Chicago in the 1980s, my first exposure period of the Cold War.4 All four authors, it should to great thinking about world politics be pointed out, penned these path-breaking pieces and foreign policy came through — articles that reached beyond their disciplinary readingA articles from International Security. It was bounds and spoke to questions of great policy a golden age for security and strategic studies, and relevance — while relatively young and before they it played out in the pages of the journal with the had attained their current “moose-head” status. funky font, snappy titles, long, discursive footnotes, Why do I bring this up in the introduction to unconventional article length, and alternating this edition of the Texas National Security Review? cover colors. The questions asked and answered First, our goal is to publish articles possessing were big, scholars actively engaged the concerns similar range, style, importance, and impact. Sean, of policymakers, and no one questioned journal like his predecessors Steve Miller and Steve Van issues that focused on crucial historical events and Evera, is a legend, having created a home for the that included articles by a former national security best work of emerging scholars in international advisor, a historian, leading natural scientists, and relations. Policy-relevant diplomatic history, top international relations scholars. security studies, and strategic studies have found International Security published so many articles themselves under siege in recent years, but under that changed the way we looked at the world. A few Sean’s leadership, International Security has stayed of my favorites from my younger days: At a time true to the mission of publishing clear and rigorous when the overwhelming consensus was that NATO scholarship that helps us better understand the was seriously outgunned, John J. Mearsheimer consequential — and often contentious — issues demonstrated in the 1982 essay, “Why the Soviets surrounding war and peace. Sean deserves deepest Can’t Win Quickly in Central Europe,” that NATO thanks and best wishes from all of us. could hold the line if a full-on Warsaw Pact attack The International Security that I grew up with came.1 In the spring of 1983, using never-before- has been a model for us as we think about what seen documents, David Rosenberg, in “The Origins the Texas National Security Review can and of Overkill: Nuclear Weapons and American should be. This is, admittedly, a high bar. But Strategy, 1945-1960,” painstakingly reconstructed we are aiming very high. And we have not only the policies and processes that led to the massive learned from their successes. I suspect our pages nuclear forces of the United States.2 In “The will not see a repeat of the heavy dose of arcane Long Peace: Elements of Stability in the Postwar theory — the so-called “battle of the -isms” — that International System,” John Lewis Gaddis wrestled took up much space in International Security and with the puzzle of why the fearsome ideological and other international relations journals in the 1990s. geopolitical competition between the superpowers And like all journals, we also hope to become a stayed peaceful.3 Marc Trachtenberg’s winter 1989 platform for more diverse voices. Like most, we piece, “A Wasting Asset: American Strategy and the are nowhere near where we want or should be. The Shifting Nuclear Balance, 1949-1954,” revealed that Texas National Security Review is dependent upon the rapidly shifting military balance had profound the submissions we receive and the blind peer 1 John J. Mearsheimer, “Why the Soviets Can’t Win Quickly in Central Europe,” International Security 7, no. 1 (Summer 1982): 3–39, https://muse. jhu.edu/article/446738/pdf. 2 David Rosenberg, “The Origins of Overkill: Nuclear Weapons and American Strategy, 1945-1960,” International Security 7, no. 4 (Spring 1983): 3–71, https://muse.jhu.edu/article/446756/summary. 3 John Lewis Gaddis, “The Long Peace: Elements of Stability in the Postwar International System,” International Security 10, no. 4 (Spring 1986): 99–142, https://www.jstor.org/stable/2538951. Francis J. Gavin 4 Marc Trachtenberg, “A Wasting Asset: American Strategy and the Shifting Nuclear Balance, 1949-1954,” International Security 13, no. 3 (Winter 1988-1989): 5–49, https://www.jstor.org/stable/2538735. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2538735. 4 5 Introducing TNSR’s Fourth Issue: Allies & Enemies Introducing TNSR’s Fourth Issue: Allies & Enemies review process we embrace, but we are cooking up a variety of initiatives to identify, support, and publish new voices. The excellent contributions in this issue have brought me back to those old issues of International Security. They include, amongst other excellent contributions, Philip Bobbitt combining constitutional law and history to bring unique reflections to the question of world order. Ulrike Franke diagnoses the recent troubles afflicting the transatlantic alliance. Daniel Sobelman engages the debate within international relations over alliances and entrapment by showing how the United States and Israel engaged in a sophisticated effort to shape each other’s behavior. And J. Peter Scoblic offers a fascinating window into how a young historian transformed research and forecasting within the American intelligence community, foreshadowing many of the methodological and substantive debates we are having today. As we give thanks and bid Sean well, we hope that he and all those who understand and appreciate the crucial importance of rigorous and accessible scholarship — scholarship that transcends disciplines, speaks to the world of practice, and wrestles with big questions on national and international security — will enjoy this issue of the Texas National Security Review and those yet to come! Francis J. Gavin is the Chairman of the Editorial Board of the Texas National Security Review. He is the Giovanni Agnelli Distinguished Professor and the inaugural director of the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at SAIS-Johns Hopkins University. His writings include Gold, Dollars, and Power: The Politics of International Monetary Relations, 1958-1971 (University of North Carolina Press, 2004) and Nuclear Statecraft: History and Strategy in America’s Atomic Age (Cornell University Press, 2012). 6 7 8 The Scholar 9 The Scholar This section is dedicated to publishing the work of scholars. Our aim is for articles published in this journal to end up on university syllabi and policy desks from Washington to Tokyo, and to be cited as the foundational research and analysis on world affairs. The Scholar Restraining an Ally: Israel, the United States, and Iran’s Nuclear Program, 2011–2012 In asymmetric alliances, a superior state provides security to Restraining an Ally: a weaker ally, who in exchange surrenders its autonomy to its stronger protector.