Russian-Chinese Military Partnership?
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FMSO.LEAVENWORTH.ARMY.MIL/OEWATCH Foreign Military Studies Office Volume 5 Issue #10 OEWATCH October 2015 FOREIGN NEWS & PERSPECTIVES OF THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT SPECIAL ESSAY: XPCC: The Militarization of Agriculture and Construction TURKEY 25 Caltrops Used as Tactical Tools by Criminal 39 Making Sense of the Collective Security Treaty 3 Russia’s Moves in Syria Complicate Turkey’s Position Organizations in the Federal District Organization’s Exercises 4 PKK Employs New Tactics against Turkish Military 26 Mexican Drug Cartels and the FARC: United Through 40 The Engineering Capabilities of Kazakhstan’s 5 Turkey’s Defense Industry Goes into Attack Mode Weapon- and Drug-Trafficking Defense Industry MIDDLE EAST INDO-PACIFIC ASIA ARMENIA, RUSSIA, UKRAINE 6 Jordanian Jabhat al-Nusra Leader Assassinated 27 Perceptions of Thailand’s Power Development Plan 41 Russian Soft Power, Strategic Messaging, and the 8 Iran Exporting Night Vision Goggles to Asia, Africa 2015-2036 European Migrant Crisis 9 Iran: Revolutionary Guard Brags of New Range to 28 Indonesian Sovereignty vs. Singaporean Jobs: 43 MoD Adds First Disaster Relief Regiment to the Ranks UAVs Dispute Over Regional Airspace in Southeast Asia 44 NGO Warfare 10 Iran: Rouhani Doubles Down on Military-Dominated 29 Rebels in Indonesia’s Restive Papua Province 45 A Russian (Pragmatic) View of Army Ethics Economy Continue their Low-Level Insurgency 46 Modularity Facilitates Russian Armored Vehicle 11 Egyptian Military on the Offensive 30 Erawan Shrine Bombing Investigation: Local Muslims Innovations 13 The GCC’s Uphill Battle in Yemen in Bangkok are Already Feeling a Negative Impact 48 MVD-VV Spetsnaz: The Elite of Russia’s Ministry of 31 Widening Network Behind Bangkok Bombing Interior Troops AFRICA 49 Russia’s Military Build-up in Syria: Another 15 Somalia: Fighting on Empty...Attacked AMISOM CHINA, KOREA, JAPAN Afghanistan? Soldiers Had Not Been Paid for Months 32 300,000 PLA Troops to be Cut Amid China’s Growing 50 Russia’s Continued Economic Decline 16 Nigeria Using Drones to Combat Oil Theft Military Might 51 Armenia Debates Constitutional Amendments 17 Nigeria to Receive Jungle Warfare Training from 33 Sino-India Confrontation: A Stand-off or Simply a 52 Ukraine’s New Defense Doctrine Brazil War of Words? 53 Blow to Russian Military Morale 18 The AU and the African Standby Force: 33 China’s New Attack Helicopter to be Developed over 54 Russian-Chinese Military Partnership? Accomplishing the Mission, Just Differently Than the Next Five Years 55 Russian-Serbian Anti-Color Training Imagined 34 Disparate Views in Chinese Press About US-Chinese 56 Summer Arctic Water Crossing Demonstration 20 East Asian Rivalries But in East Africa Cyber Issues 57 Major Arctic Exercise 21 President Buhari in France: To Recognize or Not Boko 35 Chinese Thoughts on Near Space 59 Is the Northern Sea Route an Expensive Pipe Dream? Haram-ISIL Linkages 36 Chinese Economic Reform: Giving with the Left, 60 Increasing Arctic Surveillance Taking with the Right 61 Polar Bears without Borders LATIN AMERICA 62 Does Russia’s Correlation of Forces Assessment of the 22 Colombia Might Change Its Constitution to Help the EUROPE Arctic Indicate They Will Dominate There? Bolivarians 37 Serbia and Kosovo Reach Municipality Agreement 63 Former Putin Aide Describes the Russian President’s 22 President of Guatemala Resigns, Faces Arrest But Differ on Details Goals and Methods 23 Bolivarian Strategic Reality? 37 Challenges in Handling the Exodus of Refugees 24 The Operational Scheme of Las Maras and Other SPECIAL ESSAY Criminal Groups in Honduras CENTRAL ASIA 64 XPCC: The Militarization of Agriculture 25 Narco-Juniors Change the Rules of Drug Trafficking 38 Maintaining Chinese Security Cooperation in Central in Mexico Asia and Construction The Foreign Military Studies Office (FMSO) at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, OEWATCH is part of the US Army Training and Foreign News & Perspectives Doctrine Command G-2’s Operational of the Operational Environment Environment Enterprise and for over 25 Volume 5 | Issue 10 October | 2015 years has conducted open source research on foreign perspectives of defense and Regional Analysts and Expert Contributors security issues, emphasizing those topics that are understudied or unconsidered. Turkey Karen Kaya Operational Environment Watch provides Middle East Tara Beeny translated selections and analysis from Michael Rubin a diverse range of foreign articles and Lucas Winter other media that our analysts and expert Africa Robert Feldman contributors believe will give military Jason Warner and security professionals an added Jacob Zenn dimension to their critical thinking about Latin America Geoff Demarest the Operational Environment. Brenda Fiegel Indo-Pacific Asia Cindy Hurst Anthony Ortiz Materials, outside of the original foreign press article, Jacob Zenn under copyright have not been used. All articles published in the Operational Environment Watch are not provided China, Korea, Japan Cindy Hurst in full, and were originally published in foreign (non-US) Tim Thomas media. Blaze Zandoli FMSO has provided some editing, format, and graphics Europe Alyssa Jackson to these articles to conform to organizational standards. McKinzey Manes Academic conventions, source referencing, and citation style are those of the author. Central Asia Michael Rose The views expressed are those of the author and Matthew Stein do not represent the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the Armenia, Russia, Ukraine Chuck Bartles US Government. Release of this information does not Anna Borshchevskaya imply any commitment or intent on the part of the US Ray Finch Government to provide any additional information on any Les Grau topic presented herein. Tim Thomas The Operational Environment Watch is archived and available at: http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil. Editor-in-Chief Tom Wilhelm Editors Ray Finch Contact FMSO at: Harry Orenstein [email protected] Design Editor Keith French TURKEY Top Russia’s Moves in Syria Complicate Turkey’s Position 21 September 2015 OE Watch Commentary: On 16-17 September “… Moscow’s activities… represent another spanner in Turkish Foreign Minister Feridun Sinirolioglu visited Sochi to meet with his Russian counterpart, Sergey the works thwarting Turkey’s desire to see the earliest Lavrov, to discuss a range of issues, including Syria’s possible demise of Bashar al-Assad and his regime.” future. While Russia expands its military presence in Syria to boost Assad’s position, Turkey would like to see Syrian President Assad depart as soon as possible. In addition, Turkey would like to see a safe zone established north of Aleppo in northern Syria, but Russia’s expanding military presence in this area would make this impossible. The accompanying articles from the Turkish and international press discuss Turkey’s increasing divergence with Russia on the Syrian issue. The first excerpted article claims that Russian unmanned aerial vehicles have started conducting reconnaissance flights over Syria. The piece cites Syrian Foreign Minister Valid Muallim as saying that Russia’s support in the fight against groups like ISIS and the al-Nusrah Front would be a potentially Turkish Foreign Minister (left) Feridun Sinirlioglu and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. game-changing development on the ground in Source: http://tr.sputniknews.com/politika/20150917/1017798767.html Syria. As the second excerpt points out, Russia’s Source: “Rusya Suriye’de keşif uçuşlarına başladı” (Russia has started recent involvement in Syria includes renovating and reconnaissance flights in Syria),Radikal.com.tr , 21 September 2015, http://www. expanding the airport at Latakia, the dispatch of radikal.com.tr/dunya/rusya_suriyede_kesif_ucuslarina_basladi-1438301 hundreds of military advisers to train regime forces and the supply of advanced weaponry to the Syrian “U.S. officials said that unmanned aerial vehicles belonging to the Russian air Army. The piece claims that these have compounded force have started conducting reconnaissance flights over Syria. Syrian Foreign Turkey’s frustration with this ongoing crisis and Minister Valid Muallim said that Russia’s support in the fight against groups like represent an obstacle to Turkey’s desire to see the ISIS and the al-Nusrah Front was a new development, and that if Moscow were to earliest possible demise of Assad and his regime. participate in operations, ‘all plans for Syria would be disrupted.’ ” The third accompanying excerpted article quotes Source: Semih Idiz, “Russia deepens Turkey’s Syrian impasse,” Al Monitor.com, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s claim 15 September 2015, http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/09/turkey- that, “The idea that all the problems will be resolved russia-deepening-syrian-impasse-military-support.html if Assad goes, is a utopia for us.” He also says that he and his Turkish counterpart were unable to come “Russia’s latest military moves in Syria — which include renovating and to an agreement on Assad’s future because Russian expanding the airport at Latakia, the dispatch of hundreds of military advisers officials believe that the Syrian people should be the to train regime forces and the supply of advanced weaponry to the Syrian army ones to decide that. — have compounded Turkey’s frustration with this ongoing crisis. Moscow’s activities… represent another spanner in the works thwarting Turkey’s desire to Despite disagreements on other issues, and despite