#1 (95) January 2016 Will Ukraine have Foreign policy objectives Progress in investigation elections in 2016 and challenges of Maidan crimes WWW.UKRAINIANWEEK.COM Featuring selected content from The Economist FOR FREE DISTRIBUTION CONTENTS | 3 BRIEFING 26 Iryna Herashchenko: 5 Reversing the Deep-Freeze: "The militants and Russia The dangers of further have not fulfilled any requirements impoverishment of the Minsk Agreements" President’s Envoy on peace process FOCUS and exchange of prisoners 7 Once and For All: 28 18 Months is Not a Sentence After the hybrid war, But a Start: time to deal with Why investigations of Maidan the hybrid independence crimes are taking so long 8 A Game of Snap with Joker: 31 Making Headway: Will Ukraine cast ballots this year? Reform of the law enforcement sector 10 Mission Possible: 32 New Military Command Wanted: Foreign policy objectives How Ukrainian military and challenges for 2016 schools should change 13 Francisco de Borja Lasheras to train efficient professionals on how Europe's perceptions SOCIETY of Ukraine reflect its own crises 36 Mowing Down the Mind: 14 Leaving the Worst Behind: How television paralyzes people Prospects and risks of Ukraine’s economy 39 Yuriy Makarov in the new year on why language matters 17 Oleksiy Khmara on Ukraine’s 40 Donbas Military Fiction: accomplishments in How books turned war into reality the fight with corruption HISTORY POLITICS 42 Gulnara Bekirova: 18 Pavlo Klimkin: “Those who stay in Crimea "We expect solidarity and and those who left are in commitment to Ukrainian an equally difficult position” affairs from the EU" Crimean Tatar historian and political Ukraine’s Foreign Minister scientist on the history and identity on visa-free travel, Normandy of Crimea’s indigenous people Four talks and the future 45 Leonidas Donskis on memory of relations with Russia and freedom through jazz music 22 Yuriy Sergeyev: in the Soviet Union "The main thing is to ensure 46 Illusion of a Federation: the Ukrainian issue is heard Historian Stanislav Kulchytsky regularly at the UN Security Council" on the Bolsheviks’ tools Ex-Permanent Envoy to in dealing with national the UN on Ukraine’s priorities identity in soviet republics as non-permanent member CULTURE & ARTS of the Security Council 50 Christmas in jazz, 24 Referendum Madness: French films and folk art: Plebiscite-pushers have got Europe’s The Ukrainian Week offers voters hooked on the cheap rush of a selection of art and music direct democracy venues to attend in January E-mail [email protected] www.ukrainianweek.com Tel. (044) 351-13-87 The Ukrainian Week #1 (95) January 2016 Editors address 37 Mashynobudivna str., Kyiv, 03067, Ukraine Founder ECEM Media GmbH. Publisher ECEM Media GmbH Print run 15 000. Free distribution Address Austria, Am Gestade,1, 1010 Vienna Our partner State registration certificate КВ № 19823-9623ПР 19.03.2013 Chief Editor Dmytro Krapyvenko Editors Anna Korbut, Lidia Wolanskyj #1 (95) January 2016 | THE UKRAINIAN WEEK THE UKRAINIAN WEEK | #1 (95) January 2016 BRIEFING Reversing the Deep-Freeze Oles Oleksiyenko ccording to one survey run by the Democratic Initiatives Fund (DIF) and the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) in December 2015, 60% of Ukrainians now think that things are not Agoing as they should, compared to 52% who thought so in Decem- ber 2013. The main reasons given by those who hold this opinion is the decline in the standard of living (69%) and the high level of corruption (57%). For them, a positive signal, in addition to the end of military action in Donbas would be a rise in the standard of living (51%) and seeing the most corrupt officials sued for their crimes (50%). The decline in the standard of living for most Ukrainians has really been unprecedentedly significant for such a short period of time. Derzhstat, the statistics bureau, reported in December 2015 that consumer prices had gone up 43% compared to December 2014 and by 79% compared to PHOTO BY UNIAN BY PHOTO #1 (95) January 2016 | THE UKRAINIAN WEEK 6 | BRIEFING December 2013. And this is just the tip of the iceberg changing for the better in the near term, the likelihood given the specific methodology and the consumer basket is that dangerous socio-political processes will begin and that the statistics agency uses. Meanwhile, the indexation the threat to the very existence of Ukraine as an indepen- of wages and pensions for most Ukrainians was dramati- dent state will rise sharply. Still, such conditions obvious- cally less over this same period. For instance, government ly cannot be provided through populist “easy steps” that workers and workers at budget-funded institutions saw will quickly deteriorate the situation even further. their wages go up only 25%. This means the government will have to look for ways By November 2015, the newest data available, even to prevent a social explosion and the triumph of popu- the official estimates of the Ministry of Social Policy were lists and the comeback of once-discredited politicians that the minimum subsistence wage for the employed at a time when budget resources are really limited and was UAH 2,875, for children age 6-18 it was UAH 2,930, the IMF and western partners justifiably insist that they and for pensioners it was UAH 2,052. Yet the 2016 Bud- prevent the deficit and the already excessively high public get used a minimum wage of UAH 1,378 (rising to UAH debt from growing. 1,450 May 1), while the minimum pension is UAH 1,074 Somehow, the numberless calculations of today’s top (rising to UAH 1,130 May 1), meaning that in both cases, officials—who were in opposition not long ago—about they don’t even cover a half of what the Ministry consid- the tens and hundreds of billions of losses to the state ers the actual living wage. through the corrupt schemes in place during the Yanu- What’s worse, even the average government wage is kovych regime have not translated into effective action now at the threshold of the subsistence minimum even to improve the situation over the last two years. The oli- for those who are employed: in November 2015, wages garchs and Big Business continue to sell Ukrainian-made averaged UAH 3,426 in education and UAH 3,168 in goods to their offshore companies at below cost to evade healthcare. And this does not take into account any chil- taxes. Top officials continue to cost the country billions in dren that the individual is supporting. Given that infla- losses to both the state budget and to business by abusing tion is expected to be 25-30% in 2016, according to the the state procurement system, taking bribes for permits minimal scenario proposed by analysts, the 10% wage and licenses, covering up for contraband and smuggling, increase as of December 1, 2015 will do little to improve and manipulating the VAT refund system. the situation. With expectations of growing unemploy- To even partly close the loopholes through which the ment this coming year, it matters that the minimum un- budget and economy are losing hundreds of billions of employment benefit for those sufficiently vested in insur- hryvnia per year is something officials and the political ance will be only UAH 1,102.40 (rising to UAH 1,160 May elite have no desire to do, although it’s the absolutely only 1), which is barely one third of the subsistence minimum. way to stabilize the situation in the country. Another way Those who are not vested will get barely half of that, or to renew social justice could be higher taxes and fees on UAH 544. In December 2014, 43% of Ukrainians were luxury goods and services, such as expensive cars, high- ready to suffer a certain level of material decline in order end gadgets, expensive homes, jewelry and precious met- for reforms to take hold, whereas in December 2015, 33% als, premium-class hotel and restaurant services and so were prepared to do so, only 8% of those were prepared to suffer “as long as necessary,” while 25% said “not more than a year.” Right now, 59% are no longer prepared to THE GOVERNMENT NEEDS TO PREVENT put up with material decline at all, and 39% of them say A SOCIAL EXPLOSION AND THE TRIUMPH that they are already completely impoverished. The mar- gin of savings and patience among most Ukrainians has OF POPULISTS AND COMEBACK BOYS AT A TIME been exhausted for 2016. WHEN BUDGET RESOURCES ARE REALLY LIMITED Should military action in Donbas finally stop, strong demand for social paternalism on the part of the state will become the priority for most of Ukrainian society. A KIIS on, as well as property taxes that are more differentiated and DIF poll in October revealed that Ukrainians expect and tied to market value rather than based on the size of the state to firstly provide social security (39%), justice the space. It’s equally important to set up a more effec- and a fair court system (37%), protection from foreign tive mechanism for leveling out tax contributions among aggression (32%), free healthcare (30%), and guaranteed different categories of the employed, because it’s highly jobs (29%). discriminatory and unfair when barely half of those who Moreover, only 18-20% of those polled want the state are nominally employed are paying the proper taxes and to provide “rods, not fish:” physical safety, law and order, social contributions and supporting all the social and and equal rights with minimal intervention in the econ- state infrastructure. omy. Yet only 18% are prepared to pay taxes on all their Obviously, the process of shifting at least some part income, 8% are prepared to actively oversee the govern- of the expense of education and healthcare from the ment, and only 5% are prepared to participate freely in state budget to alternative mechanisms for legally getting promoting various ideas or programs.