International Institute for Tel: +43 2236 807 342 Applied Systems Analysis Fax: +43 2236 71313 Schlossplatz 1 E-mail:
[email protected] A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria Web: www.iiasa.ac.at Interim Report IR-13-055 Adaptive phenotypic diversification along a temperature-depth gradient Jan Ohlberger Åke Brännström (
[email protected]) Ulf Dieckmann (
[email protected]) Approved by Pavel Kabat Director General and Chief Executive Officer June 2015 Interim Reports on work of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis receive only limited review. Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the Institute, its National Member Organizations, or other organizations supporting the work. *Manuscript 1 Manuscript type: Article 2 3 Adaptive phenotypic diversification along a temperature-depth gradient 4 Jan Ohlberger1,2,3,*, Åke Brännström3,4,#, Ulf Dieckmann3,+ 5 6 1 Department of Biology and Ecology of Fishes, Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, 7 D-12587 Berlin, Germany 8 2 Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biology, University of Oslo, N-0316 Oslo, 9 Norway 10 3 Evolution and Ecology Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, 11 Austria 12 4 Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics, Umeå University, SE-90187 Umeå, Sweden 13 *
[email protected] (corresponding author) 14 #
[email protected] 15 +
[email protected] 16 17 Keywords: adaptive dynamics, ecological gradient, evolutionary diversification, sympatric 18 speciation, temperature adaptation 19 Online appendix A: Model variables, functions, and parameters 20 Online appendix B: Model functions and their estimation from empirical data 21 Online appendix C: Sensitivity analysis 22 ABSTRACT 23 Theoretical models suggest that sympatric speciation along environmental gradients might be 24 common in nature.