The Advanced National Seismic System: A Sure Bet for a Shaky Nation

By David Hebert Twenty-six U.S. f you were to learn that in 1886, urban areas, identi- ✩ Proposed ANSS urban networks. fied in the map at The earthquake a major U.S. city was ravaged by hazards map of the a magnitude-7.3 earthquake in right, are at risk of conterminous United significant seismic States shows the ar- which 60 people were killed and eas of highest seismic millions of dollars of damage activity: hazard in red and low- est seismic hazard in Idone, where would you guess it had hap- grey. The stars indicate pened — Los Angeles? San Francisco? Albuquerque, N.M. urban areas where dense urban monitor- Anchorage? Anchorage, Alaska ing networks are Highest hazard proposed. The regional Try Charleston, S.C. Boise, Idaho networks (not shown) In fact, damaging earthquakes have Boston, Mass. will be concentrated rocked several U.S. cities far from Alaska in the areas of highest Charleston, S.C. risk, and the national or California — Boston, Memphis and networks (not shown) Chattanooga- will have sites evenly Salt Lake City, to name a few. Chances Alaska, Hawaii and Puerto Rico Knoxville, Tenn. also have proposed sites. distributed throughout are, they will again, and those at risk need Lowest hazard the country. Eugene- All other sites to be determined to be ready. on a region-by-region basis. Springfield, Ore. That’s where the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) comes in. Evansville, Ind. Provo-Orem, Utah San Francisco-Oakland, Calif. The ANSS is a proposed nationwide Fresno, Calif. earthquake-monitoring system designed Las Vegas, Nev. Reno, Nev. San Juan, P.R. to provide accurate and timely data and Los Angeles, Calif. Sacramento, Calif. Santa Barbara, Calif. information products for seismic events, Memphis, Tenn. St. Louis, Mo. Seattle, Wash. including their effects on buildings New York, N.Y. Salinas, Calif. Stockton-Lodi, Calif. and structures. Portland, Ore. Salt Lake City, Utah “The ultimate goal of the ANSS is to San Diego, Calif. save lives, ensure public safety and re- duce economic losses,” said Bill Leith, a USGS scientist and coordinator of the mean that research and monitoring are Coast in South Carolina, New York and John Ebel, a professor of geophysics at ANSS. “Rapid, accurate information necessary everywhere. Massachusetts. Boston College and northeast coordina- about earthquake location and shak- “When people think of faults and The ANSS, when fully implemented, tor for ANSS implementation, estimates ing, now available in parts of California, earthquakes, they tend to think of the San will integrate all regional and national that damaging earthquakes (magnitude 5 Washington and Utah, is generated by Andreas Fault, but earthquakes in the networks with 7,000 new seismic instru- or greater) happen in New England every data from a dense network of seismic- eastern United States might be different,” ments, including 6,000 strong-motion 50 to 60 years. In 1940, there was a mag- monitoring instruments installed in high- said Eugene Schweig, a USGS geologist sensors in 26 at-risk urban areas. (See nitude-5.5 quake in New England, and risk urban areas. The information has in Memphis, Tenn. “Assuming buildings revolutionized the response time of emer- map for a list of these areas.) the clock is ticking. gency managers to an earthquake in these will shake the same in the East as they do Boston is one of those urban areas “I talk to people all the time who ask, areas, but its success depends on further in California is probably not valid.” — indeed, it has experienced damaging ‘Earthquakes don’t really happen here, deployment of instruments in other vul- ANSS network instruments are already earthquakes before. In 1755, an earth- do they?’ ” Ebel said. “And I answer, ‘Yes, nerable cities across the United States.” at work in many areas and are planned quake centered near Cape Ann, Mass., they do.’ ” Although the frequency of earthquakes for other earthquake-prone regions na- caused building damage and chimney Although the frequency of earth- on the West Coast is higher than other tionwide, including Northern and South- collapses in Boston. The buildup of the quakes is much greater in the West, the areas of the contiguous United States, ern California, the Pacific Northwest, city since then would likely make matters damaging effects of a quake in the East the geologic characteristics nationwide Alaska, Salt Lake City, the New Madrid much worse if such an earthquake were travel farther. Seismic Zone, and along the Atlantic to happen there today. “The 1994 magnitude-6.7 Northridge,

USGS Earthquake Scientists — A Nationwide Notion of Pride By David Hebert Susan Hough to keep these instruments running for leaps in understanding have invariably the next few months, recording many come after large earthquakes not only USGS scientists from across the Title: Geophysicist/Seismologist thousands of aftershocks. strike but are recorded by increas- ingly sophisticated instrumentation. country have been part of many in- Location: Pasadena, Calif. On the morning of June 28, 1992, the magnitude-7.3 Landers earthquake struck Earthquakes do not, however, record credible and memorable earthquake Length of service with the USGS: 14 just to the north of where the Joshua themselves. Long- and short-term moni- years experiences. With that in mind, sev- Tree event had occurred. The portable toring requires ingenuity and commit- eral of them were asked, “What has In April of 1992, less than two months seismometers — instruments developed ment. The USGS has taken a leadership role with such efforts in the United States been your proudest, most exciting after joining the USGS office in Pasadena, by the USGS in Menlo Park — operated Calif., I led the deployment of portable faithfully, recording invaluable close-in for nearly half a century. Looking back at or most noteworthy moment in seismometers after the magnitude-6.1 seismograms of the largest earthquake in my own career, I am proud of any number USGS earthquake science?” “Joshua Tree” earthquake struck the California in 40 years. of accomplishments, but none more than Southern California desert near Palm the chance to contribute in a modest way Now, as in 1906, seismology remains a The answers are as different as the Springs. My colleagues and I were able to this tradition of excellence. scientists themselves. data-driven science: Our most important

22 PEOPLE, LAND & WATER ★ April 2006 Calif., earthquake was not felt in San the need for a consolidated, coopera- earthquake research and monitoring and felt the earthquake. [See page 33.] Francisco, less than 400 miles away,” tive approach to information gathering it has expertise in house.” • ShakeMap – A rapidly generated Ebel said. “If that same earthquake hap- and mitigation. The USGS is the only agency in the computer map that shows the location, pened in Boston, it would be felt in “The ANSS is working toward develop- United States responsible for the routine severity and extent of strong ground shak- Minneapolis-St. Paul, more than 1,000 ment and implementation of integrated monitoring and notification of earth- ing within minutes after an earthquake. miles away. There is potential for several software and human resources to more ef- quakes. The USGS fulfills this role by Fast information on strong shaking in ur- metropolitan areas to be damaged by a fectively use these with existing hardware operating the U.S. National Seismo- ban areas helps get emergency response single, large earthquake in the East.” resources to provide timely and valuable graph Network, the National Earthquake to the right places. In 1811 and 1812, a series of earth- information to the public,” Withers said. Information Center, the National Strong • Hazard Maps – Hazard maps identify quakes, ranging in estimated magnitude Timely and valuable information is Motion Program and by supporting 14 re- the areas of the country that are mostly from 7.5 to 8.0, started near New Madrid, a key ingredient to effective mitigation. gional networks in areas of moderate to likely to experience strong shaking in the Mo., and shook cities from St. Louis to A possibility USGS scientists have been high seismic activity. All of these efforts future. ZIP code or latitude-longitude are being integrated into the ANSS. Cincinnati. Although the probability for keenly aware of throughout the develop- lookup is available. [See pages 26, 30, 31.] “The ANSS contributes to the infra- another 1811/1812-type sequence in the ment of ANSS is that an early warning • Earthquake Notification – Automat- structure that enables monitoring to be ed notifications of earthquakes are avail- next 50 years is 7 to 10 percent, the prob- of even a few seconds would give school- much more cooperative and integrated, able through e-mail, pager or cell phone. ability for a magnitude-6 or greater during children enough time to get under their allowing information to the public that This provides rapid information and up- that same period is 25 to 40 percent. desks and would allow managers time to combines data from all regional partners,” dates to first responders and resources for “Based on paleoseismic work, we know stop trains and subways, shut off pipelines Withers said. media and local government. that 1811- and 1812-like events have hap- and suspend medical procedures. The goal of USGS earthquake moni- • Earthquake Catalog and Data – pened two or three times in the past,” These sorts of warnings can only be Users can search an online catalog and said Mitch Withers, seismic networks download information and technical director at the Center for Earthquake data.

Research and Information at the Univer- • Real-time Waveforms – Real-time sity of Memphis. “So we know it’s not a The ultimate goal of the waveform displays from 60 stations, show- fluke and that they tend to come in se- “ ing the movement of seismic waves, are quences, where there are several events ANSS is to save lives, ensure available online 24 hours a day. clustered together in time. From a haz- • Regional Earthquake Info – Infor- ard and recovery point of view, it’s much “ mation about earthquake hazards, histori- more difficult if we have several in a row public safety and reduce cal seismicity, faults and more is available like that.” for different regions of the country and Earthquake hazard concerns stretch to economic losses. by state. the Mountain States as well, where sev- • Movies of Structures Shaking eral earthquakes since 1935 have caused – These are Quicktime movies created more than 30 deaths in Idaho, Montana — Bill Leith from the recordings of fully instrumented and Wyoming. The threat of such a structures during earthquakes. quake happening in a mountain urban “USGS and ANSS support allows for area means preparation and monitoring accomplished through national coopera- toring is to mitigate risk — using better much better monitoring than we would instruments to understand the damage are vital in at-risk locations such as Salt tion, so a nationwide network of science otherwise have,” Withers said. “By making caused by shaking and to help engineers Lake City. and civic partners is working to make the use of ANSS tools, we are able to provide create stronger and sounder structures “We haven’t had our 1906 earthquake ANSS a reality. rapid notification, recent earthquakes, that ensure vital infrastructures, utility, in Utah yet, but our partnership with “The USGS and its regional part- ShakeMap, real-time data exchange, water and communication networks can technical expertise exchange, etc.” the USGS under the ANSS has made us ners combine resources to augment keep operating safely and efficiently. feel much better prepared to deal with it ANSS-funded stations to operate regional Rapid and reliable information on the The ANSS comprises several products location, magnitude and effects of an when it happens,” said Gary Christenson, seismic networks,” Withers said. that work to engage and inform the pub- a geologist and manager of the Geologic These partners include state geological earthquake is needed to guide emergency lic, emergency managers and decision response, save lives, reduce economic Hazards Program at the Utah Geological surveys, university researchers, emergen- makers: losses and speed recovery. ANSS can of- Survey. “The USGS has been a partner cy managers, engineering organizations • Recent Earthquakes — Automatic fer these benefits if resources and efforts in earthquake monitoring in Utah from and more. The USGS works to unify maps and event information are avail- are continuously devoted to it. the beginning, and implementation of perspectives and efforts to create a sin- able within minutes online at the USGS “These things play out over decades to the ANSS has been a major achievement gle, national force with which to address Earthquake Hazards Program Web site, hundreds to thousands of years, so imple- in improving preparedness, response and earthquake concerns and provide timely which displays earthquake locations mentations and improvements have to scientific/engineering data gathering.” information. nationwide. be done year in and year out,” Ebel said. The variety of earthquake hazard con- “To have the USGS as overseer and co- • Did You Feel It? – This is a citizen “ANSS is a down-payment investment on cerns that are both unique to and shared ordinator of the ANSS makes sense,” Ebel science Web page where shaking inten- future earthquake monitoring.” by urban areas nationwide illustrates said. “The USGS is nationally involved in sity maps are created by the people who USGS Earthquake Scientists — A Nationwide Notion of Pride Roberto J. Anima — these communities need to be made aware Ken Rukstales of the potential hazards that surround us and Title: Geologist them. As part of these assumed duties, I have Title: IT Specialist also helped in translating two fact sheets Location: Menlo Park, Calif. concerning earthquakes and tsunamis. Location: Golden, Colo. Length of service with the USGS: 33 years In 2001, I was asked to be part of the Tsunami Length of service with the USGS: 21 years For the past six or seven years, I have had the Response Team that was invited to Peru in Along with Art Frankel and E.V. Leyendecker, we opportunity to report, both locally and interna- response to a series of tsunamis that occurred have produced seismic building-design maps that tionally, to the Spanish-speaking public on both along the coast of Camana, Peru, as a result of are the basis for the seismic design provisions of the television and radio, about earthquakes, tsuna- a magnitude-8.4 earthquake off the coast of International Building Code and the International Res- mis and other natural disasters. I feel that this southern Peru. The study focused on tsunami idential Code. These maps are the most significant is important because much of the information deposits on the beaches between Ocoña and product to ensure that buildings, bridges and other reported in English was not being reported to Mejia, Peru. I am currently working on mapping structures are designed to withstand expected levels the Spanish-speaking community. Because we the rift valley of the San Andreas Fault, Tomales of ground shaking caused by earthquakes. Properly live in an earthquake-prone area — the entire Bay. I am also mapping the continental shelf designed, earthquake-resistant structures greatly re- West Coast of North, Central and South America along the central California coast. duce the loss of life and property from earthquakes.

April 2006 ★ PEOPLE, LAND & WATER 23 Taking it all in Slide — How the Trans-Alaska Pipeline Survived a Big One Compiled by Heather Friesen Pipeline and storage tank construction at Valdez began in 1975. Large segments of the he Nov. 3, 2002, magni- Trans-Alaska Pipeline were elevated above tude-7.9 central Alaska earth- ground to keep the permafrost from melting, quake was one of the larg- and about half of the 800-mile pipeline was est recorded earthquakes buried. A special fault design was adopted for in our nation’s history. The crossing the Denali Fault Zone. Here the pipe- Tepicenter of the temblor was located near line is supported by rails on which it can slide Denali National Park, approximately 75 miles freely in the event of fault offset. In mid-1977, south of Fairbanks and 176 miles north of the first tanker shipped Alaska north slope oil Anchorage. It caused countless landslides and from Valdez. road closures, but minimal structural damage, More than 14 billion barrels (nearly 550 bil- and amazingly, few injuries and no deaths. lion gallons) have moved through the pipeline In contrast, the 1906 magnitude-7.9 earth- since startup in 1977. After the 2002 quake, quake and subsequent fires took 3,000 lives the pipeline continued to carry 1 million bar- and caused $524 million in property losses. rels of oil each day, though it was temporarily The remote location of the magnitude-7.9 shut down for inspection. With the pipeline Denali Fault earthquake played a role in ensur- intact, an important source of revenue for the ing that the earthquake was not more devastat- Designed to withstand a magnitude-8 earthquake with up to 20 feet of movement, the Trans- state of Alaska was preserved. Moreover, as Alaska Pipeline is supported by rails on which it can slide freely during an earthquake. ing. However, advanced seismic monitoring, Alaskans know all too well, the consequences long-term research and a commitment to haz- to the environment, should the pipeline have ard preparedness and mitigation also played a key role. The Walter Hickel, then U.S. Secretary of the Interior failed, would have been catastrophic. science done before the Denali Fault earthquake aided in (1969-70), was alerted about the proposed pipeline and “Good science made the difference between an emer- the successful performance of the Alaska pipeline, and the immediately appointed Bill Pecora, then USGS director gency and a tragedy,” said P. Patrick Leahy, USGS. “It’s science done after the Denali Fault earthquake revealed (1965-71), to chair a technical advisory board. Pecora ap- an example of how partnerships between the USGS, more about large quakes that will help save lives and prop- pointed the Menlo Park working group, made up mostly the Federal Emergency Management Agency, univer- erty during future temblors, especially in populated areas. of USGS scientists, to advise the board. sities, state and local officials, and business leaders and USGS seismologists and geologists serving on a federal USGS created several scientific documents to be used the community enable us to apply our scientific knowl- task force were instrumental to ensuring that the Trans- in planning the pipeline location and construction. Doc- edge. We know we can’t stop the Earth from chang- Alaska Pipeline was designed and built to withstand the uments included an estimate of potential earthquake ing, but we can work together making public safety our effects of a magnitude-8.0 earthquake with up to 20 feet shaking levels and a report on thermal effects of a heated primary goal.” of movement at the pipeline. The USGS design guidance pipeline in permafrost that described how the pipe would The 2002 Denali earthquake is the largest seismic event proved to be on target. In 2002, the Denali Fault rup- float, twist and break. ever recorded on the Denali Fault system — one of the tured beneath the pipeline, resulting in an 18-foot hori- In 1971, Pecora brought the Menlo Park group to longest continental faults in the world. The earthquake zontal offset. The resilience of the pipeline is a testament Washington and thanked them for telling the oil compa- was similar to the magnitude-7.9 1906 earthquake, which to the importance of science in hazard mitigation and nies “what they can’t do,” but now he wanted them to tell ruptured the San Andreas Fault in Northern California. decision making. the companies “what they can do.” Pecora locked the door Both fault systems exhibit strike-slip movement, where More than 30 years ago, Trans-Alaska Pipeline System of the conference room and told the group that he would blocks of continental crust slip horizontally past each (TAPS), formed by seven oil companies, confirmed the not let them out until they had finished the analysis of other. existence of a great deal of oil on the North Slope. In the question “To bury or not to bury?” So the group put “Studying the 2002 Denali Fault earthquake is an op- February 1969, TAPS announced plans to build a 4-foot di- together the necessary stipulations on the pipeline con- portunity to understand the consequences of a very large ameter, 800-mile pipeline to carry crude oil from Prudhoe struction. Among other things, the stipulations required earthquake to better prepare for the time when one will Bay to Valdez. Issues pertaining to the safety of the design that the pipeline system be designed to prevent oil leak- occur in a much more densely populated area,” said emerged. Would the heat in the oil melt the pervasive, age from the effects of a magnitude-8.0 earthquake on the USGS scientist Peter Haeussler. thick, permafrost layer and cause damaging spills? Would Denali Fault. The Denali Fault earthquake was very directional. the pipeline be able to withstand a large earthquake in the In April 1974, construction of a 400-mile, all-weather It ruptured rapidly over a long distance, focusing the nation’s most seismically active state? road from the Yukon River to Prudhoe Bay was started. earthquake energy in the direction of the earthquake

USGS Earthquake Scientists — A Nationwide Notion of Pride David Oppenheimer laboriously by hand opened up a new vista into Calaveras Fault was much lower than had been culminated in an effort that began more than the earthquake process. commonly thought. It was both exciting and 30 years earlier to instrument a section of the Title: Seismologist; Project Chief of the When Paul, Bob Simpson and I began to look at gratifying to be making a new and fundamental San Andreas Fault that repeatedly ruptures in Northern California Seismic Network the suite of focal mechanisms of aftershocks observation that altered our understanding of similarly sized earthquakes every few decades. from the magnitude-6.2 Morgan Hill, Calif., fault mechanics and the process of how earth- In an instant, the earthquake tested all phases quakes are generated. of the NCSN and University of California-Berke- Location: Menlo Park, Calif. earthquake in 1984, we were initially con- founded. We discovered that the mechanisms The second is operational: As the project chief of ley monitoring system. Length of service with the USGS: 28 years for earthquakes adjacent to the Calaveras Fault the USGS Northern California Seismic Network Not only did we successfully capture a rare The first memorable moment is scientific: In were reflecting a state of stress in which the (NCSN), it has been my privilege to manage data set for study by the seismological research the mid-1980s, my colleague Paul Reasen- orientation of the maximum compressive stress a complex project staffed by very creative community, but the results were automatically berg and I developed software to compute was nearly perpendicular to the fault instead of and hard-working individuals who deploy and available on the Web. Within minutes after the focal mechanism of an earthquake from being oriented approximately 30 degrees to the maintain seismic instrumentation and telecom- the earthquake, we were reliably and rapidly first-motion polarities from seismograms. A fault as predicted by classical mechanics. munications, and who develop sophisticated, delivering earthquake information on the Web focal mechanism indicates to seismologists This finding, together with borehole stress real-time data processing systems. at a rate of 10,000 hits/sec. It was both exciting the orientation and sense of relative motion of measurements, heat-flow measurements and Perhaps the proudest moment was the occur- and gratifying to see that all of our instrumenta- the fault on which the earthquake occurred. geological observations, provided compelling rence of the September 28, 2004, magnitude-6 tion, telemetry and processing systems worked The ability to compute what was formerly done evidence that the frictional strength of the Parkfield earthquake. The Parkfield earthquake as designed. 24 PEOPLE, LAND & WATER ★ April 2006 rupture. As a result, said Haeussler, dis- levels of water in Pennsylvania wells by up had triggered earthquakes. quakes.” The last time the San Andreas tant earthquake effects were most pro- to two feet, damaged houseboats in Seattle “Research like this conducted by the Fault ruptured in Southern California, in nounced in one direction — southeast from seismic sea waves, and triggered small USGS and collaborating institutions a magnitude-7.9 earthquake in 1857, the of the fault trace toward western Canada earthquakes at many volcanic or geother- helps to anticipate the effects of future earthquake began in central California and the lower 48 states. Consequently, the mal areas in the direction of rupture. The large earthquakes, such as the kind that and ruptured southeastward toward the Denali Fault earthquake was felt as far most pronounced triggering was observed will occur on the San Andreas Fault in now highly urbanized Los Angeles region. away as Louisiana. In the New Orleans at Yellowstone, Wyo., with 130 small earth- the Los Angeles area,” explained Lucy area — more than 3,000 miles away — quakes recorded in the four hours follow- Jones, USGS scientist-in-charge for South- residents saw water in Lake Pontchartrain ing the 1,940-mile-away Alaskan rupture. ern California. “The effect of directivity slosh about as a result of the earthquake’s By contrast, in the other direction, only may be important in hazard planning for Thanks to George Gryc, Robert Page and power. The earthquake also disturbed one of the many active Alaskan volcanoes future large Southern California earth- Peter Haeussler. Measuring Magnitude — What Do the Numbers Mean?

Compiled by Diane Noserale The Most Common Magnitude Scales in the United States ften two or more different magnitudes When earthquakes occur, energy is radiated from are reported for the same earthquake. the origin in the form of different types of waves. Sometimes, years after an earthquake Moment magnitude (M ) is usually the most accurate occurs, the magnitude is adjusted. W measure of an earthquake’s strength, particularly for Although this can cause some confu- larger earthquakes. Moment magnitude accounts for sion in news reports, for the public and among scien- O the full spectrum of energy radiated by the rupture tists, there are good reasons for these adjustments. and is generally computed for earthquakes of at least Preliminary Magnitude magnitude 5.5 when the additional data needed for this computation are available and the effort is war- Following an earthquake, the first magnitudes that Different Methods of Calculating Magnitude ranted. Using some sophisticated regional networks seismologists report are usually based on a subset of in which noise is limited, seismologists can compute seismic-monitoring stations, especially in the case of The concept of using magnitude to describe earth- moment magnitudes for earthquakes down to less than a larger earthquake. This is done so that some infor- quake size was first applied by Charles Richter in 1935. magnitude 3.5. mation can be obtained immediately without waiting The magnitude scale is logarithmic so that a recording Surface-wave magnitude (MS) is computed only for for all the data to be processed. As a result, the first of 7.1, for example, indicates a disturbance with ground shallow earthquakes, those with a depth of less than magnitude reported is usually based on a small num- motion 10 times larger than a recording of 6.1. How- 30 miles. Body-wave magnitude (mb) is computed for ber of recordings. As additional data are processed and ever, the difference in energy released is even bigger. both shallow and deeper earthquakes, but with restric- become available, the magnitude and location are re- In fact, an earthquake of magnitude 7.1 releases about tions on the period of the wave. And local “Richter” fined and updated. Sometimes the assigned magnitude 33 times the energy of a magnitude 6.1 or about 1,000 magnitudes (ML) are computed for earthquakes re- is “upgraded” or slightly increased, and sometimes it is times the energy of a magnitude-5.1. Another way of corded on a short-period seismometer local to (within “downgraded” or slightly decreased. It can take months thinking of this is that it takes about 1,000 magnitude- 370 miles of) the focus of the earthquake. before a magnitude is no longer “preliminary.” 5.4 earthquakes to equal the energy released by just Seismologists may measure an earthquake’s mag- Sometimes the earthquake magnitude is reported one magnitude-7.4 event. A earthquake of magnitude nitude with one scale. Then, once more data are 2 is normally the smallest felt by people. Earthquakes by different networks of seismometers based on only available, reassign the magnitude using another scale with a magnitude of 7.0 or greater are commonly con- their recordings. In that case, the different assigned deemed more accurate based on the additional data. sidered major; great earthquakes have a magnitude of magnitudes are a result of the slight differences in the For example, for the 1999 earthquake near Ismit, 8.0 or greater. instruments and their locations with respect to the Turkey, the 7.8 magnitude first cited was a (M ) sur- Through the years, scientists have used a number of S earthquake epicenter. Depending on the specifics of face-wave magnitude. The later figure of 7.4 is a (M ) different magnitude scales, which are a mathematical W the event, scientists might determine that the network formula, not a physical scale. Although news reports moment magnitude. Magnitudes assigned to a specific closest to the event reports it most accurately. This is often call all magnitudes “Richter,” scientists today event for years can sometimes change. especially true where the instrumentation is denser. rarely use Richter’s original method. Unless further Other times, national networks, in which the instru- detail is warranted, USGS simply uses the terms mag- ments are often more state-of-the-art, produce the nitude or preliminary magnitude, noted with the sym- Compiled with assistance from Steve Vandas. most reliable results. bol “M,” in its news releases.

USGS Earthquake Scientists — A Nationwide Notion of Pride Brian Sherrod good idea where I thought a strand of we uncovered a thrust fault that placed Joan Gomberg the fault zone traversed the area I was weathered bedrock and old glacial Title: Research Geologist working in, so I obtained permission to deposits over a recent forest soil. The Title: Research Seismologist do some detailed work on an undevel- fault and buried soil were within a few Location: Seattle Location: Memphis, Tenn. oped parcel of land near the shoreline of meters of where I originally thought the Length of service with the USGS: Lake Sammamish. fault was. Length of service with the 11 years USGS: 18 years After many hand-excavated test pits and Want to know what was most satisfy- One of my most memorable times as a soil auger holes, I thought I had found ing about this discovery? I had many The most exciting thing for USGS scientist is when I found evidence a trace of the fault that put weathered modern tools at my disposal, including me was discovering the of surface rupture along the Seattle Miocene bedrock against young glacial LiDAR (laser) maps, geospatial informa- strong correlation between Fault near Bellevue, Wash. I was looking deposits. The time had finally come to tion systems and a host of detailed distant aftershocks and for evidence of the Seattle Fault east of really test my ideas with a large excava- geophysical studies, but it was getting focusing of seismic waves Seattle — using old aerial photographs tion across what I thought was a fault. down on my hands and knees in the dirt (implying triggering by the taken from biplanes in the 1930s, more I remember being nervous when the (oops, soil...) and doing the field geology waves) — a Eureka moment! recent laser mapping data, geologic backhoe arrived and we finally began that really made this study succeed. Visiting Bhuj, India, was also maps and lots of field work. I had a excavating. Within a short time, though, memorable.

April 2006 ★ PEOPLE, LAND & WATER 25 By Tania Larson Looking to the Past to “Construct” Models of the Future n October 17, 1989, occupants of the Coming up with these estimations can Transamerica Pyramid be very complicated. Basically, research- Building Safer: ers do everything they can to learn about in San Francisco were unnerved as the building past events: where earthquakes have oc- Ostarted to shake. Sixty miles away, in the How Decades of Earth Science is Helping curred, how frequently and at what size; forest of Nisene Marks State Park in the how the vibrations have traveled through Santa Cruz Mountains, the Loma Prieta to Reduce the Biggest Earthquake the ground; how those vibrations were af- earthquake had struck with a magnitude fected by soil and bedrock; and how all of of 6.9. The seismic waves were chan- Vulnerability — Man-Made Structures this affected both the land and the struc- nelled — focused by the geological fea- tures we have built. Researchers then tures of the area — toward San Francisco. combine this information to build mod- USGS instruments installed in the build- els of future earthquakes. ing showed that it shook for more than As earth scientists look at historical a minute and that the top floor swayed earthquakes, they are particularly inter- more than a foot from side to side. ested in the levels of shaking the earth- The earthquake caused more than quakes have caused. “Earth scientists can $6 billion in damages and took 63 lives. determine past shaking levels by studying Yet no lives were lost in the Transamerica the effects of past earthquakes on peo- Pyramid. Despite the intensity of the shak- ple, structures and the landscape,” says Unreinforced ma- Perkins. “For more recent earthquakes, ing, the 49-story building came through sonry buildings are undamaged. Having been aware of the especially vulnerable instrumentation on the ground and in area’s potential for even larger earthquakes, during strong earth- buildings gives a more direct measure of engineers had designed the Transamerica quake shaking. Shak- the shaking experienced.” ing-hazard maps are Pyramid to withstand greater stresses than Scientists have been putting instru- used to determine ments in buildings since the 1940s. From those from the Loma Prieta earthquake. areas where these The biggest danger during an earth- types of buildings this data, scientists and engineers can quake is often the failure of man-made need to be reinforced directly estimate how earthquake shak- structures. Not only are lives lost to fall- to make them safe ing will affect similar buildings in the during earthquakes. future. When the information is less di- ing buildings, collapsed bridges and Photo: J. Dewey rect, researchers use computer models crumbling facades, but disruption of of buildings to indirectly generate the infrastructure and utilities can cause ad- estimated effects. ditional hazards and actually keep emer- gency crews from life-saving resources. sign and construction of structures to veloped a number of products to show not Digging Deeper Earth scientists have been working for resist it.” only how probable it is that a structure more than 100 years to improve our un- And as USGS scientist David Perkins will face small, moderate and large earth- What they don’t learn with instru- derstanding of earthquake hazards. One points out, “Earthquake building codes quakes, but also how much shaking build- mentation above the ground, research- of their most important goals is to provide are the primary means to prevent or limit ings are likely to experience and how they ers can sometimes learn from clues be- designers, lawmakers and residents with damage to structures.” tend to respond to these varying levels neath the ground surface. The layers of the information they need to build struc- Building codes help protect us by of shaking. the earth typically lie flat, but when an tures that are better able to withstand the requiring that new construction meet cer- earthquake rumbles through these lay- forces of the earthquakes they are likely tain safety requirements. In many earth- Hazard Maps to Reveal ers, they are disrupted, leaving breaks and to face. quake-prone areas, these codes specify the Nationwide Seismic Threats folds and other clues scientists can use to learn more about an area’s susceptibility levels of earthquake forces that structures Since 1948, scientists have been mak- Building Codes Help Protect to earthquakes. must be designed to withstand. ing national earthquake-shaking maps Earthquake-Prone Communities “Historical seismicity alone does not “To ensure that the code is adequate that show the variations in the seismic tell us all we need to know about future “The most common cause of dam- without being excessively expensive to threat from one area to the next. These earthquake locations and magnitudes,” age to a structure (a building or bridge) implement, engineers have to know the maps demonstrate the potential shaking says Perkins. “Accordingly, earth scientists during an earthquake is strong ground likelihood that certain levels of ground hazard from future earthquakes across the look for faults and signs of earthquake shaking,” says E.V. Leyendecker, USGS shaking will be experienced during the country, and they are frequently updated liquefaction or earthquake-induced scientist emeritus. “The first line of lifetime of the structure,” says Perkins. as scientists learn more about earthquakes landslides in the geological past in order defense against such shaking is the de- But how do they know what conditions and the hazards they pose. a building is likely to face? USGS has de- to estimate the sizes and dates of these USGS Earthquake Scientists — A Nationwide Notion of Pride Heidi Stenner doing so, we saw multi-story apart- Thomas Noce methodologies to identify and quantify the ment buildings reduced to a single liquefaction hazards that will serve us not only Title: Geologist story of rubble, people living in tents Title: Geologist here in the Bay Area, but across the country in outside their homes in the rain and all seismically-at-risk regions. Location: Menlo Park, Calif. Location: Menlo Park, Calif. bridges and overpasses rendered Although much work remains to be done in Length of service with the USGS: Length of service with the USGS: 20 years useless. And we heard a lot of sad the Bay Area to complete the hazard mapping, 7 years stories. I’m most proud to have been working to what we have begun and hope to finish will In 1999, a large, magnitude-7.4 Seeing firsthand the effects of an help quantify the hazards in the greater San serve as an example of how hazard mapping earthquake rocked northwestern earthquake really motivated me Francisco Bay Area, particularly in the areas should be done in the future in historically Turkey. The fault that ruptured to do what I can to keep that from of man-made land that didn’t exist in the active liquefaction zones across the United is similar in a lot of ways to the happening again. Understanding the 1906 earthquake. These areas are potentially States, such as the New Madrid seismic San Andreas Fault in California, science behind earthquakes is one the most vulnerable in a repeat scenario region, Charleston, S.C., the Pacific Northwest so it was important to learn all aspect needed to better prepare and of the 1906 event, and the Loma Prieta and Alaska. we could about the quake and its earthquake of 1989 provided but a glimpse reduce the risk to people from such It has been equally exciting to work with the effects. As part of a small team, of their shortcomings. We have learned a events. It is my time in Turkey that best of the best in their fields, with people who I helped map where and how great deal about liquefaction and hazard reminds me most why we need to care about their work and their contributions the fault ruptured the ground. In analysis since then, and we have developed keep advancing earthquake science. to make the world a safer place. 26 PEOPLE, LAND & WATER ★ April 2006 events. This allows them to extend the and design standards,” says Leyendecker. ‘history’ of large events back as much as The revisions incorporated new descrip- 10,000 years or more. From this longer tions of the hazard, such as the specific history, earth scientists can also deter- soil and rock conditions and how build- mine the rate at which earthquakes of all ings experience vibrations in response to sizes occur.” the vibrations of the ground. However, as Leyendecker points out, “This new way of describing the hazard this does not tell the entire story. Design- enables structural engineers to better pre- ing a building requires knowledge not dict structural response to ground shaking only of the earthquakes it will likely face, for design purposes. Knowledge of the site but also how those earthquakes will af- condition of the maps also enables engi- fect the building — the loads it will have neers to adjust the design to incorporate to bear and how and to what capacity it the actual site condition. In the end, these will respond to those forces. “Research improvements result in better protection conducted since the 1906 San Francisco of lives and property,” says Leyendecker. earthquake, particularly over the last 20 to By taking all of this information into Houses without adequate connections to foundations can easily shift during even moderate earthquake shaking, causing extensive damage. Pipes and wires may be broken by a slight 30 years under the National Earthquake account, scientists have created a pow- cripple-wall shift, resulting in fires, water damage or other problems. Much damage of this type Hazards Reduction Program, has contrib- erful data set. “With all these forms of can be avoided by using inexpensive bracing techniques, such as those recommended in the uted to these three areas of loads, response earth science information,” says Perkins, seismic design provisions of building codes. and capacity,” says Leyendecker. “researchers can compute the likelihood Looking Long Term of future earthquake ground shaking even in these areas known for their earth- Science Advancements Help at all locations in the U.S. It is maps of quake preparedness, the losses suffered by The hazard maps that influence today’s Refine and Improve Building Codes these probabilistic ground motions that the densely populated urban areas were building codes incorporate more than a catastrophic. Thanks to increased earth science are used to determine building code century of seismic monitoring and decades focus, building codes have seen regular requirements.” High-Resolution Maps to Help of research. In their quest to find ways to major changes since the 1960s, and ac- More than 20,000 cities, counties and High-Risk Urban Areas protect people from the effects of earth- cording to Perkins, these advancements local government agencies use building quakes, USGS researchers have come have paid off. codes based on these maps, but shaking- To address this vulnerability, engineers, up with many creative ways to expand “Structures built using recent building hazard maps have many other applica- officials and emergency-response teams their understanding of the hazards. They codes have withstood remarkably large tions. They are also used by insurance needed better, more detailed informa- have traveled the globe, comparing notes levels of ground motion in the earth- companies to set rates for properties in tion. In 1998, the USGS began high- and historical records with researchers quakes that have been experienced since different areas, civil engineers to estimate resolution earthquake hazard mapping around the world. They have dug through the 1990s,” says Perkins. the stability of hillsides, the Environmen- in three high-risk urban areas: the eastern mud and sand and clay. They have bored For example, in 1971, the magnitude- tal Protection Agency to set construction San Francisco Bay region, Seattle and through layers of rock. They have even 6.6 San Fernando earthquake left the Los standards for waste-disposal facilities, and Memphis. Since then, projects in St. learned about earthquakes by examining Angeles dam badly damaged. This dam, the Federal Emergency Management Louis, Mo., and Evansville, Ind., have long-drowned forests and other side effects so weakened that a strong aftershock could Agency to allocate funds for earthquake also been started. earthquakes have had on the landscape. have caused a collapse, was all that stood education and preparedness. These projects will provide city officials By taking all of these efforts and turning between 80,000 people and 15 million To make sure users understand and get with hazard maps that are more detailed them into products communities can use tons of water. Residents in an 11-square- the best value out of the maps, the USGS and take local and regional geology into to protect themselves, USGS researchers mile area were forced to evacuate their offers workshops to familiarize users with account. As the Loma Prieta earthquake have helped save many lives and millions homes while the water behind the dam the shaking-hazard maps and earthquake demonstrated, geology can play a big role of dollars. But they know their work is not was lowered. With years of ground mo- issues. in how a city is impacted by an earth- done. In the next 100 years, they will con- tion studies and advancements in earth- While both the Loma Prieta and quake. The assessments are also address- tinue to look for new ways to refine and en- quake studies to turn to, engineers built Northridge earthquakes demonstrated ing potential ground failure hazards, such hance the maps and models that influence a new, safer dam. This new structure was that we can build safer structures that do as liquefaction and earthquake-triggered building codes, making all of our structures tested in 1994 when the magnitude-6.7 withstand earthquakes, there were still landslides. — from our homes, to our hospitals, to the Northridge earthquake hit the area. The considerable losses that revealed just how This research is being used to create infrastructures that support our resources new dam held, with very little damage. vulnerable major metropolitan areas can urban hazard maps, scenario earthquake — better able to withstand the earthquakes “In 1996, a major revision of the ground- be when hit by an earthquake. Awareness maps and long-term forecasts of earth- they will inevitably face. shaking-hazard maps, developed in col- of this vulnerability was reinforced by quake probabilities. These products will laboration with the earth-science com- the 1995 Kobe, Japan, earthquake. With provide better details for updating build- munity and design engineers, resulted magnitudes of 6.7 and 6.9, respectively, ing codes, reducing risks and planning for Thanks to E.V. Leyendecker, Nicolas in major improvement of building codes both the Northridge and the Kobe events recovery in high-risk metropolitan areas. Luco, David Perkins and Robert Wesson are considered moderate earthquakes, yet for their help and expertise. USGS Earthquake Scientists — A Nationwide Notion of Pride

Hal Macbeth in the future. This effort has brought public this as a continually evolving effort to better in a large earthquake, potentially giving a awareness and access to disaster crisis in- improve the access of real-time earthquake few seconds warning ... more potential lives Title: Supervisor of seismic analysis for the formation to a level where, in the end result, information for federal, state and local saved. Northern California Seismic Network we hope some lives might be saved. disaster-response teams. I serve as one of I don’t think I could be any more proud than five USGS duty seismologists who are on call Location: Menlo Park, Calif. Through the efforts of public outreach, I have being a team member of an organization personally fielded calls and e-mails daily 24/7 for emergency response to earthquakes whose ultimate purpose is to protect lives Length of service with the USGS: 26 years on questions about earthquakes, volcanoes, occurring in Northern California. ShakeMaps and property not only here in the United Public Education: The Earthquake Hazards landslides and other hazard/earth science (one of our map products showing calculated States, but also helping to identify and pos- Team has put a superior effort into providing information. Many of these calls are from ground-shaking intensities) are produced sibly mitigate hazards in a global crisis, such Web-based information to the public not only our nation’s youth, who are eager to educate minutes after a moderate-to-large earth- as tsunamis and other earthquakes occurring about where recent or historical earthquakes themselves and potentially will be our quake strikes, alerting rescue/repair crews to around the world. have occurred, but also about how the public nation’s next generation of scientists. That’s focus on the most damaged areas first. can use that information to protect them- much to be proud of. Efforts are also being made to establish an selves and others from earthquake hazards Emergency Hazards Response: I have seen early warning system for ground shaking

April 2006 ★ PEOPLE, LAND & WATER 27 Working for a Safer Southern California A Profile of Lucy Jones

By Stephanie Hanna and Diane Noserale

An Interview ucy Jones, chief scientist of the Earthquake Hazards Program in Southern California, is with Lucy Jones truly a household name and the face of the USGS in Southern California. Over the past 23 years, she has worked tirelessly to calm By Diane Noserale Lshattered nerves following earthquakes and to convince Southern Californians that they can take steps to make What is your nightmare earthquake their lives safer during an earthquake. scenario? Born in Santa Monica in 1955, Jones is a fourth-gen- eration Southern Californian who has earned an under- Any magnitude-7 in the Los Angeles basin, graduate degree in Chinese language and literature from and we have many faults — Santa Monica, Brown University and a Ph.D. in geophysics from the Hollywood, Puente Hills, Palos Verdes, Sierra Massachusetts Institute of Technology. This somewhat Madre — that are capable of producing an earth- unusual combination tells the tale of her diverse interests quake of that size. During a Santa Ana wind and helped her (as a graduate student in 1979) to become condition when fires cannot be controlled is the the first American scientist to work in China following the scenario for a true nightmare. “Multi-hazard” is normalization of relations. Over the past 23 years, Lucy Jones has worked to calm shat- not just popular jargon. In 1983, Jones joined the USGS as a seismologist. Her tered nerves following earthquakes and to convince Southern first interview as an employee of the USGS was on PBS’s Californians that they can take steps to make their lives safer during an earthquake. nationally televised “MacNeil/Lehrer Report” in 1985. What was your most interesting During a spate of earthquakes that followed, she quickly overpasses during powerful aftershocks. She is still asked, experience while working in the field? became the go-to scientist for earthquake interviews, ap- “How’s your baby?” and responds that he is a defensive pearing on almost all the major network television news I generally don’t do fieldwork. I use the perma- tackle on his high school’s JV football team. shows and making hundreds of appearances on local Los nent seismic network. But to bribe me to go to In her spare time — between earthquakes, media ap- Angeles affiliates. An articulate spokeswoman, Jones has a graduate school at MIT, Professor Peter Molnar pearances, running the USGS office in Pasadena and knack for seeing through the question asked and respond- (my eventual thesis advisor) offered to take me family responsibilities with her two sons and husband, ing to the concern or fear that prompted it. on fieldwork in Afghanistan for the two months Egill Hauksson, a seismologist at Caltech — Jones has Jones has appeared multiple times on many national before school started. I spent the time running authored more than 80 scientific papers. Her research programs, including “Dateline,” “Nightline” and “The portable seismographs in the Hindu Kush Moun- focuses primarily on earthquake-hazard assessment and Today Show.” She has worked with the staff of Univer- tains. In one of the villages, someone tried to forecasting earthquake aftershocks. Her theoretical geo- sal Studios and even been to Disneyland to instruct the buy me from Peter for two camels, double the physics work forms the basis for a Web service that pro- “Three Little Pigs” in earthquake safety and non-structur- going rate. vides 24-hour forecasts for strong shaking from aftershocks al mitigation (They already had learned the construction in California. [See page 30.] lesson!) on Disney’s “Toon-Town Kids.” She has also written several guest editorials printed in You talk to all kinds of groups. Do you For broadcasts across the nation, she must often appear major daily newspapers and published several guidebooks see a difference between young and awake, alert and articulate at 3 a.m., many times after for the general public and for classrooms. One of her old people’s perceptions about live late-night newscasts. What little sleep afforded dur- more significant and lasting contributions was in writing earthquakes? ing these times is often interrupted by the shaking of local and developing the publication “Putting Down Roots in earthquakes or her beeper. Earthquake Country.” [See page 34]. No. There is a fundamental divide between Jones’ most enduring media persona is that of the calm Her contributions to public safety also include briefing people who are afraid of earthquakes and those working mom. During a post-earthquake news conference local and state officials on complex earthquake topics, who aren’t, but I have not found a defining char- in 1992, she comforted her fussing 1-year-old. She was helping to develop safety plans for several cities, including acteristic of what makes people afraid. shown carrying a baby and advising people not to aban- Los Angeles, and helping to train first responders in cities don their homes and potentially be caught near freeway and counties throughout Southern California.

USGS Earthquake Scientists — A Nationwide Notion of Pride Peter Haeussler first time rupturing has been seen through realized, “Oh — landslides!” of Japanese seismologists who had a notion glacier ice right after an earthquake. About 10 days after the earthquake, we were of there being thrusting at the beginning of Title: Research Geologist I also remember following the Denali Fault also continuing to try to map the fault trace, the earthquake sequences. So when we saw this, we said, “Well, there it is!” Location: Anchorage, Alaska rupture when it suddenly ended, and we and we wanted to go east but couldn’t be- couldn’t find any more surface rupture. Our cause of weather. We decided to head west, That first day we were on the Susitna Glacier Length of service with the USGS: 14 years helicopter then flew over a mountain, and and we started to find all the valleys full of Thrust Fault, we heard a sound like a deep No doubt, my most exciting experience was there we saw more surface rupture, this clouds, so we couldn’t get to the trace. Howitzer in the distance; then the bushes on as the principal geologic investigator for time on the little-known Totschunda Fault, We were getting near the helicopter’s fuel the tundra would start shaking. It was very the immediate post-earthquake geologic which we followed out to the west where it limit as we were flying over a glacier, and we wild hearing and feeling an earthquake after- response to the Nov. 3, 2002, magnitude-7.9 terminated. saw surface rupture through the glacial ice shock while standing on the fault plane. Denali Fault quake in Alaska. Also, in the two days of initial investigations, — we realized we had found a previously In the end, it was the discovery and mapping Right after the earthquake, we chartered a we discovered there were these humongous unknown major thrust fault, which is now out of the entire surface rupture and finding helicopter — we were looking for surface landslides that had covered glaciers. The known as the Susitna Glacier Thrust Fault. these other faults that was just ruptures of the Denali Fault. It was really clouds were down low on the deck, and That was incredibly exciting to see on the really exciting. exciting to be able to follow surface ruptures as we flew over in the helicopter, we were ground, and satisfying because we had heard on land and through glacier ice. It was the asking, “What’s all this rock here?” We then

28 PEOPLE, LAND & WATER ★ April 2006 Jones is, or has been, a member of a ences and age groups. She has worked to number of local, national and interna- The magnitude-5.0 Pasadena earthquake in empower those who are frightened by re- tional decision-making commissions and peated earthquakes with the message “you professional associations. In 2002, then- 1988 was the most memorable [for me]. It was can keep yourself safe.”

Governor Gray Davis appointed her to the “almost directly beneath my house during the night All these efforts have earned her many California Seismic Safety Commission, professional awards, not only in her spe- and she was reappointed by Governor and literally threw us out of bed. Also, it was the “ cialty of seismology, but also from educa- Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2005. The fi rst time my oldest child, Sven, then 2 years old, tors, civic groups, safety offi cials and from work of the Commission has led to the media. In 2000, she was awarded the two bills now before the California saw me on TV (in that case, a live interview) and Alquist Medal for “signifi cant contribution Legislature. Jones has advised the Califor- told my husband, ‘Mommy’s in the TV!’ to earthquake safety in California.” This nia Offi ce of Emergency Services on the year, she became the second non-journal- state’s earthquake-prediction and response — Lucy Jones ist to win a Golden Mike Award from the plans and has briefed the U.S. Congress Radio and TV News Association of South- and other high-level offi cials. has given more than 200 talks to civic to retirement home residents, Jones has ern California for a radio-news special that Generous with her time, Jones esti- groups, teachers associations and the pub- provided science education with a focus drew lessons from Katrina for a future big mates that since joining the USGS she lic. From 2- and 3-year-olds at preschool on hands-on inquiry to a variety of audi- earthquake in Los Angeles. Top 10 Things Northern Californians Should Do to Prepare for the Next Big Earthquake

Excerpted from material by the 100th Anniversary disabled and other vulnerable residents. property that a major Northern California earthquake Earthquake Conference Steering Committee 4. Get involved in preparing the region to respond could cause. While many areas are better prepared to and recover from major earthquakes. This includes than ever before, the region is not yet suffi ciently ready he people, businesses and government region-wide, multi-organizational plans, training, exer- for the next major earthquake, and the social and eco- agencies in Northern California will risk cises and coordination assessments, as well as continu- nomic consequences could prove to be long-lasting and suffering loss of life and structural and ing improvements in our collective understanding of ruinous to communities. A renewed emphasis on pre- fi nancial damage when major earth- seismic risks. paredness and safety is needed to fully prepare Northern quakes strike. Scientists, engineers and California for a major natural disaster. ✔ Ensure Resiliency in Recovery Temergency-management experts gathering for the th ✔ Invest in Reducing Losses 100 Anniversary Earthquake Conference call on the 8. Collaboratively plan for the regional relocation region’s citizens, businesses and governments to take and housing, both short- and long-term, of residents 5. Target those buildings that pose the greatest risk of the following actions to increase safety, reduce losses displaced by potential fi res, uninhabitable buildings or collapse for seismic mitigation through retrofi t, reduced and ensure a speedier recovery when the next major widespread economic and infrastructure disruption fol- occupancy or reconstruction. earthquake strikes. lowing a major earthquake. 6. Retrofi t or replace all facilities essential for emergen- ✔ Develop a Culture of Preparedness 9. Assess and plan for fi nancing your likely repair and cy response to ensure that they function following earth- at Home, Work and School recovery costs following a major earthquake. quakes. These facilities include fi re and police stations, 10. Ensure adequate post-event funding to provide emergency communications centers, medical facilities, 1. Know the seismic risks of the buildings you in- economic relief to individuals and communities after a schools, shelters and other community-serving facilities. habit, the transportation systems you use and the utili- major earthquake, when resources are scarce yet crucial 7. Set priorities, and retrofi t or replace vulnerable ties that serve them, and the actions you can take to for recovery and reconstruction. emergency- and community-serving infrastructure — protect yourself. In conclusion, the earthquake professionals of the 100th including cellular communications, airports, ports, roads 2. Be prepared to be self-suffi cient for up to three Anniversary Earthquake Conference believe that, based and bridges, transportation, water, dams and levees, sew- days (72 hours) following a disaster. on our current understanding of the hazards, local plan- age, and energy supplies — to ensure that functions can 3. Take steps to ensure adequate response care for ning, stronger building codes and ongoing mitigation be resumed rapidly after earthquakes. all special-needs populations — seniors, the poor, the have substantially reduced the potential loss of life and

USGS Earthquake Scientists — A Nationwide Notion of Pride

John Solum The SAFOD hole successfully crossed the State University), Sheryl Tembe (SUNY Stony Stanford University, and I were the conveners active San Andreas Fault at a depth of Brook), Fred Chester (Texas A&M), Joe Svitek of those sessions). It was very heartening Title: Mendenhall Fellow, Earthquake several kilometers this past summer. I spent (USGS Menlo Park), Steve Hickman (USGS for me to see all of the effort that people Hazards Team the summer of 2005 driving between Menlo Menlo Park) and Dave Lockner (USGS Menlo had put into analyzing results from SAFOD Park and the SAFOD site near Parkfi eld, Park). We devoted a lot of long hours to ex- pay off with a lot of really nice presenta- Location: Menlo Park, Calif. Calif., spending a few days here and there at tracting the cores from the pieces of drilling tions at that meeting. I’m a newcomer to the Length of service with the USGS: 1 year the drill site to lend a hand, and then driving equipment they were collected with and then SAFOD project, and I feel very privileged to My proudest moment has defi nitely been back to Menlo Park to analyze samples preserving them, making thin sections from have been able to work with so many highly working with the team of scientists from a using a powder X-ray diffractometer (a lot them and making a fi rst pass at describing dedicated scientists. large number of academic institutions, as of people were also kind enough to ferry their mineralogy. well as the USGS, on the San Andreas Fault samples up to me from the drill site). There were three sessions on SAFOD at the Observatory at Depth (SAFOD), which is part In Menlo Park, I also helped to prepare the annual meeting of the American Geophysical of the EarthScope project funded by the sidewall and spot cores that came up from Union in San Francisco in December 2005 National Science Foundation. the hole, with the help of Sarah Draper (Utah (Naomi Boness, a post-doctoral student at

April 2006 ★ PEOPLE, LAND & WATER 29 By Tania Larson By pulling all of this information to- gether, the model developers have cre- uring the Loma Prieta Taking Seismic Science ated a powerful new tool for earthquake earthquake in 1989, 42 science. “We expect this new 3D model people were killed when to revolutionize our ability to forecast the Cypress Structure, into the Third Dimension the location of ‘hotspots’ — where shak- the freeway approach to ing occurs most intensely — throughout Dthe Bay Bridge from Oakland, Calif., col- the Bay Area,” said Tom Brocher, USGS lapsed. But it wasn’t just the strength of 3D Models Help Predict Shaking seismologist and co-developer of the the earthquake that contributed to its fall. Vulnerability in Your Neighborhood model. “For the first time, we have a tool There were factors beneath the Earth’s that allows us to forecast the strong shak- surface that made this location particu- ing likely to be produced by large Bay larly vulnerable to earthquake shaking. Area earthquakes on a neighborhood-by- Remember the parable of the wise man neighborhood basis.” who built his house upon the rock and In addition to helping researchers the foolish man who built his house upon forecast strong ground motions that may the sand? Well, the principle is still true damage buildings, essential infrastruc- today, and a new tool from the USGS is ture and levees, the 3D model will help taking it to a whole new level. The USGS locate earthquakes more accurately; pre- has created a 3D geologic map and dict where destructive liquefaction of the seismic-velocity model of the upper 30 ground may occur; and model permanent miles of the Earth’s crust in the greater ground deformation that may be produced San Francisco Bay Area and much of by earthquakes, including ground subsid- Northern California. ence that could cause flooding. The 3D “The new 3D model is a result of the geologic map was also built with the flex- long and productive collaboration be- ibility to serve other needs in the future. tween the California Geological Survey Oblique view, looking from the southwest toward San Francisco Bay: The corner of the 3D Researchers are already using it to study and USGS,” said California state geolo- Geologic Model has been cut away to show faults (red lines), basins (yellow) and other geologic what happens when the crustal plates that gist John Parrish. “Its usefulness will be to rock units (various colors). By incorporating geologic features, scientists have created a powerful meet in California move slowly past each test and predict the intensity and effects new tool to help protect people and their investments by showing where earthquake shaking is other, and future refinements will help likely to be more intense. of shaking in future earthquakes and to scientists study groundwater movement build safer structures. This will be cost and toxic contaminant dispersion. saving and life saving for residents of the Bay Area, now and in the future.” strongly than surrounding regions on This information will help not only Most loss of life and property damage stronger ground. And second, there were scientists, but residents, lawmakers during earthquakes stems from the ef- variations in the thickness of the Earth’s and building designers. Chris Poland, fects of strong ground shaking, and scien- crust between the hypocenter and Oak- president of Degenkolb Engineers, said, For the first tists have shown that how long and how land that actually focused energy toward “The 3D velocity model will provide a time, we have a tool strongly a building will shake is directly Oakland and downtown San Francisco. much more detailed definition of the influenced by the properties of the Earth The 3D model is an important scien- intensity of shaking.”

that allows us to beneath it. The Loma Prieta earthquake tific advancement that combines 100 With more detailed information, build- “forecast the strong provided the first set of recordings of the years of surface geologic mapping with ers will have a better idea of how to tailor levels of shaking on a wide variety of geo- decades of research into the seismic prop- construction to fit the location, protecting

shaking likely to logic materials, including soft, unconsoli- erties of rocks. It also incorporates infor- people and their investments. be produced by dated sand and clay. mation from boreholes and variations in “There are hundreds of billions of dol- These records clearly documented that the Earth’s gravity and magnetic fields. In lars of new construction each year in high large Bay Area “ ground shaking is much more violent on creating the model, scientists broke the seismic regions,” said Poland. “The more earthquakes on a the soft sediments around the Bay mar- upper 15 to 30 miles of the Earth’s crust we can design for the proper amount of gins than on bedrock. They also showed into irregular shaped blocks bounded strength and durability, the more we can neighborhood- that differences in the Earth’s crust can by faults, making it a “fault and block” achieve cost efficiencies, perhaps in the by-neighborhood affect how seismic waves move through model. Since seismic waves can bounce billions, while giving people greater safety the ground. For example, at least two off faults, bend and be focused as they during a large, damaging earthquake.” basis. properties of the Earth’s crust worked to- cross faults, and be trapped and amplified USGS developers of the model in- gether to cause the collapse of the Cypress in buried basins, the inclusion of subsur- clude Thomas Brocher, Robert Jachens, Structure. First, the structure was built face faults and basins provides important Russell Graymer, Carl Wentworth, Brad- — Tom Brocher on loose soils that shook much more information. ley Aagaard and Robert Simpson. USGS Earthquake Scientists — A Nationwide Notion of Pride Jack Townshend the observatory grounds. We were 300 miles Anchorage to assist with medical care. We air. I was told that if I could find a pilot, they from the earthquake’s epicenter, but I re- couldn’t land until daylight because the would lend me an airplane. Fortunately, I Title: Special Projects Coordinator, USGS member feeling the shaking and hearing the airport tower was down and much of the had a pilot with me! We flew around for a Geomagnetism Group observatory’s earthquake warning alarms. runway was damaged. When we finally few hours taking photos and assessing the I rushed to the instrument room and saw landed, I flagged down a car and driver and damage until the FAA restricted the airspace Location: Fairbanks, Alaska red ink splashed all over the place. Visual asked for a ride into town. The driver was we were flying and instructed us to land. Length of service with the USGS: 33 years seismographs used at the time had inkwells, a chief flight engineer with a major airline The results of this and subsequent assess- I remember the magnitude-9.2 Good Friday and the instruments had been shaken off whose commercial jet had been grounded ment trips were published by the Alaska earthquake in Alaska on March 27, 1964. their piers. The magnetic instruments were because of damaged runways. He volun- Division of the American Association for the I was chief of the U.S. Coast and Geodetic also askew. I called in the staff, and a few teered to drive me around Anchorage and Advancement of Science, 1964 Proceedings Survey’s Geomagnetic and Seismological hours later, we had most of the instruments outlying areas to assess the damage and of the Alaskan Science Conference held at Observatory at the University of Alaska, back up and working. take photos. The University of Alaska in Fairbanks, titled, Fairbanks (The Observatory was transferred Later that night, I made a decision to do After assessing the damage from the Preliminary Intensity Evaluations of the to the USGS in 1973.) a preliminary intensity assessment in the ground, we stopped at a useable airstrip, Prince William Sound Earthquake of March The house my family and I lived in was on Anchorage area. I managed to get on a flight and I asked for a piloted plane to survey the 28, 1964, U.T. chartered to fly doctors from Fairbanks to landscape even further out and from the

April 2006 ★ PEOPLE, LAND & WATER 31