EnergyEnergy BeyondBeyond OilOil

Britain, Peak Energy, and our Low Energy Future

Location Date The Free Range Energy Beyond Oil Project http://www.fraw.org.uk/workshops/energy_beyond_oil/ AnAn illustrationillustration ofof thethe problem...problem...

Source: NASA AnAn illustrationillustration ofof thethe problem...problem...

Source: NASA Fundamental Forces All forms of energy are based upon one of four “fundamental forces”, and all these types of energy will ultimate be converted into heat.

Strong Weak HEAT Electro- Gravity nuclear nuclear magnetic

The rules: ► Energy and matter are constant (Law of Conservation) ► The activity within any system is proportional to the energy flowing through it (First Law of Thermodynamics) ► Energy only flows “downhill” – once utilised it takes more energy to restore its “quality” to its original state (Second Law of Th.)

Global Energy Inputs Solar input, Climate cycles 5,400,000EJ (wind/currents) per year 2,500,000EJ (46%)

Moon's gravity (creates tides) 94EJ per year

Reflected to space, Hydrological cycle 1,600,000EJ (30%) (evaporating water) 1,300,000EJ (24%) Source: Open University Globally Traded Energy, 1965–2007

Source: BP Annual Review Energy Inequalities, 2003

Sources: BP Annual Review/IEA The Scale of Global Energy Use, 2007

Sources: BP Annual Review/Open University UK Primary Energy Supply, 1970–2007

Source: Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2008 Primary and Secondary Supply, 2007

“losses” 2,978PJ (30%)

Source: Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2008 UK Energy Flowchart 2007

Source data: Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2008 Carbon and the Historical Climate

CO2 mean level 2007, ~ 384ppm

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C 125 -10 -400,000 -350,000 -300,000 -250,000 -200,000 -150,000 -100,000 -50,000 0 Years before present Source: RCEP/Hadley Centre/ORNL

Global Fossil Fuel Emissions, 1751-2005

1751-2005 321,080MteC

Global Fossil Fuel Emissions, 1751-2005

1751-1975 1976-2005 138,453MteC 182,627MteC 1751-2005 43%, 224 years 57%, 30 years 321,080MteC

Global Fossil Fuel Emissions, 1751-2005

1751-1975 1976-2005 138,453MteC 182,627MteC 1751-2005 43%, 224 years 57%, 30 years 321,080MteC

'97/8, '91/2, 1% RECESSIONS 2% '80/3, 4%

'44/5, 16% 1929-1932, 26% reduction!

UK Carbon Emissions, 1990-2006

8% 14%

16%

22%

40%

Source: DEFRA, 2008 The Real Problem...

“In 2004, carbon dioxide emissions were 4 per cent below their 1990 level and latest projections show that carbon emissions will be 14 per cent below 1990 levels by 2010. Carbon emissions per unit of UK output fell 31 per cent between 1990 and 2004, but this improvement was largely offset by a 39 per cent increase in the size of the economy. Energy – Its Impact on the Environment and Society 2005 (Department of Trade and Industry 2005)

The Real Problem...

“In 2004, carbon dioxide emissions were 4 per cent below their 1990 level and latest projections show that carbon emissions will be 14 per cent below 1990 levels by 2010. Carbon emissions per unit of UK output fell 31 per cent between 1990 and 2004, but this improvement was largely offset by a 39 per cent increase in the size of the economy. Energy – Its Impact on the Environment and Society 2005 (Department of Trade and Industry 2005)

In summary, the problem is the growth in consumption, not carbon

What's Renewable?

Wind

Wave

Hydro

Solar PV Thermal solar

Renewable Energy, 2007

Source: Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2008 Renewable Energy, 1990–2007

Source: Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2008 Is Renewable Energy Working? No. Over the last 16 years the average annual increase in the use of fossil fuels (coal, oil & gas) in the UK has been 27PJ/year. Over the same period the average annual increase in all “renewable” energy (government definition) sources has been 10PJ/year (a ratio of 1 unit of renewable energy to 2.7 units of fossil fuels). The increase in “true” renewable sources (not including landfill and waste incineration) was 5.6PJ/year (a ratio of 1 unit of renewable energy to 4.9 units of fossil fuels). We need a better renewable energy policy!

Source: Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2008 Conventional Oil Production

Source: Campbell & Laherrere 1998 Hubbert's Peak

Source: Open University Discovery and Production

Source: ASPO/Colin Campbell 2004 Rising Oil Prices

Source: US Energy Information Agency When is the peak of conventional oil?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_megaprojects

Source: Wikipedia: '' 'Peaking' Not a Theory in the UK

UKCS Oil 1999, UK Peak Oil production supply

Source: Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2008 'Peaking' Not a Theory in the UK

UKCS Natural Gas 2003, UK Peak Gas

supply

production

Source: Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2008 'Peaking' Not a Theory in the UK

Source: BERR 2008 Change in Imports

Source: UK Joint Energy Security of Supply Committee European Gas Network

Source: Innogate What About Coal? UK 'economic' coal reserves ≡ 1,500 million tonnes Mining UK coal consumption ≡ 63 million tonnes/year Lifetime of reserves at current Standard 'Clean' consumption 24 years coal coal plant plant Coal required to provide 30% of the primary energy supply (ignoring inefficiency Power Power of conversion) ≡ 105 million 30% 45% tonnes/year Waste Waste 70% 55% Lifetime of UK reserves at @ 30% of primary supply 14.3 years

Sources: OU/BP Statistical Review of Energy What About Uranium? Global 'proven' uranium (20,000 tonnes resource ≡ 4 million tonnes Mining of rock @ Global uranium consumption 10,000ppm U) ≡ 64,000 tonnes/year tailings Lifetime of uranium resource milling/ (100 tonnes/ smelting tonne U @ 63 years 10,000ppm U) Increasing global nuclear energy supply from uranium from 6% to depleted 30% (5 times greater) the lifetime enrichment/ uranium fuel fabrication (approx. 4 tonnes/ of the uranium resource is tonne of fuel) 13 years

MOX fuel fast reactor? high-level waste: thermal fuel uranium 95% reactor reprocessing plutonium 1% fission prod. 4%

Source: IEA/OECD-NEA/WNA Flux: The Limitation on Energy

'head' height x efficiency x surface area x flow rate efficiency x insolation

solar thermal/ hydro/ solar PV tidal impounds flux = sunlight flux = water flow

swept area x efficiency x crop yield flow rate x x density efficiency x area/year wind/ biomass tidal stream flux = crop yield/area flux = wind/water flow Flux: The Limitation on Energy

Biomass Net energy produced from one hectare (2.5 acres) of Solar radiation, intensively produced short 36,000GJ/ha/year 100% rotation coppice, less power generation losses ≡ 5MWh/year

UK power generation in 2003 Absorbed by plant, ≡ 400,000,000MWh 1,836GJ/ha/year 5% UK land area ≡ 24,290,000 hectares Biomass produced, 230GJ/ha/year 0.6% Number of UK's required to combustion- provide just the UK's electrical based power power (one-fifth of total energy generation consumption) from biomass 3.3 Power output, 0.2% Source: 70GJ/ha/year OU Biofuels Amount of land, producing intensively grown oilseeds for Solar radiation, rapeseed methyl ester, 36,000GJ/ha/year 100% required to fuel one average (9,000 miles per year) car for one year ≡ 0.85 hectares. Absorbed by crop, 5% 1,836GJ/ha/year Number of cars on the UK's roads ≡ 30,000,000

Biodiesel produced, UK land area ≡ 24,290,000 41GJ/ha/year 0.1% hectares

Number of UK's required to provide biodiesel for the car fleet 1.0 10,500 miles Source: travelled/year DEFRA The Likely Future

We don't need to produce more energy, we need to use less!

● will become very expensive within 10 years and will be in short supply within 20.

● Gas will become expensive. Just as more people are switching to gas, this too will begin to run short around 2030.

● Coal creates problems because of climate change, and nuclear has problems because the uranium won't last long.

● Renewables can't fill the gap – wind needs back-up/storage, biomass needs massive land area that it would affect agriculture, and other options have a low power density. In short, renewables might supply 30% to 40% of the UK's current energy use. That means cutting use by 60% to 70% over 40 to 50 years.

The Simple Solution... Why not just HAVE LESS?

Domestic Energy Use So, if standby devices use 10% of your lighting/ appliance consumption, 1% 2% 6% that's 10% of 12% = 1.2%! 20% (not a lot compared to Coal Manufacture the space heating load) d fuels Petroleum products 6% 1% Natural gas 12% Renewable Electricity Heat sold

Space heating Water 70% heating Lighting/appl iances Cooking 24% Source: 58% DTI Some Quick Ideas...

● Get out of debt! ● Energy reduction becomes more difficult to achieve the more you cut, so it's actually easier to look at on-site energy production (micro-generation) to offset consumption. ● Solar systems can reduce hot water demand by 50%, but for larger savings you'll need to do some major engineering on the house and install a solar roof and heat store – note that a thermal system is more productive (and cheaper) than PV ● You need to tackle your use of commodities – the easiest way of doing this is gardening to produce food, and developing local networks to supply other goods from within the area. ● You need to set yourself up to travel less within 10 to 15 years.

Finally, read the book!

Published by Matador Books, distributed by Troubador. ISBN 1-905237-006, £15.99 Only £8 if you buy now! Order on-line at http://www.troubador.co.uk/

See the Energy Beyond Oil Project web site for more information on recent developments and to download our free information – http://www.fraw.org.uk/ projects/energy_beyond_oil/