New York Metropolitan Transportation Council Final Draft Regional
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New York Metropolitan Transportation Council Regional Transportation Plan Adopted on September 9, 2021 Disclaimer Title VI Statement The preparation of this report has been financed NTMTC is committed to compliance with Title through the U.S. Department of Transportation’s VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the Civil Rights Federal Transit Administration and Federal Restoration Act of 1987, and all related rules Highway Administration. This document is and statutes. NYMTC assures that no person or disseminated under the sponsorship of the group(s) of persons shall, on the grounds of race, New York Metropolitan Transportation Council color, age, disability, national origin, gender, or (NYMTC) in the interest of information exchange. income status, be excluded from participation The contents of this report reflect the views of in, be denied the benefits of, or be otherwise the authors who are responsible for the facts subjected to discrimination under any and all and accuracy of the data presented herein. programs, services, or activities administered by The contents do not necessarily reflect the NYMTC, whether those programs and activities official views or policies of the Federal Transit are federally funded or not. It is also the policy Administration, Federal Highway Administration of NYMTC to ensure that all of its programs, or the State of New York. This report does not policies, and other activities do not have constitute a standard, specification or regulation. disproportionate adverse effects on minority and low income populations. Additionally, NYMTC will provide meaningful access to services for persons with limited English proficiency. MOVING FORWARD iii TABLE OF CONTENTS v MOVING FORWARD 1.0 NYMTC’s Shared Vision for Regional Mobility ..................2 1.1 Our Region and Its Needs ...............................................................................2 1.2 Our Vision and Goals .......................................................................................3 1.3 Our Guiding Principles ....................................................................................3 1.4 Our Objectives in Pursuing These Goals .......................................................4 2.0 How Transportation Planning Happens ...........................6 2.1 Organizational Context ....................................................................................6 2.2 Regional Planning Context: The Multi-State Metropolitan Region ...........16 3.0 A Context for Our Planning— System Performance and Future Needs .........................40 3.1 Overview .........................................................................................................40 3.2 Measuring System Performance ..................................................................41 3.3 An Overview of the Forecasts .......................................................................60 3.4 Historical and Current Trends .....................................................................64 3.5 Forecasts Through 2050 ................................................................................70 3.6 Where Growth Will Occur .............................................................................78 3.7 Travel Demand Trends and Forecasts ........................................................80 3.8 Future Changes Likely to Affect Transportation ........................................89 vi TABLE OF CONTENTS, cont’d 4.0 What We Plan to Do—Plans, Programs, Projects ...........114 4.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................114 4.2 Vision Goal - Safety and Security ................................................................115 4.3 Vision Goal - Reliable and Easy Travel ......................................................131 4.4 Vision Goal - Planning for Changing Demand .........................................145 4.5 Vision Goal - Reducing Environmental Impact .........................................154 4.6 Vision Goal - Resiliency ................................................................................167 5.0 Our Plan to Pay for the Plan ...........................................186 5.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................186 5.2 System-Level Estimates Of Costs and Revenue Sources ........................189 5.3 Projects and Strategies Proposed for Funding .........................................198 5.4 Estimates of Available Funds ......................................................................201 5.5 Additional Financing Strategies ..................................................................205 TABLE OF FIGURES vii MOVING FORWARD Figure 2-1 NYMTC Organization ...........................................................................................................7 Figure 2-2 NYMTC Planning Area and TCCs ........................................................................................8 Figure 2-3 Metropolitan Transportation Planning Process ...............................................................9 Figure 2-4 The Northeast Megaregion ...............................................................................................17 Figure 2-5 New York–Newark NY–NJ–CT–PA Combined Statistical Area .......................................18 Figure 2-6 Multi-State Metropolitan Travelshed ...............................................................................22 Figure 3-1 Transit Asset Management Plans ....................................................................................50 Figure 3-2 31-County Forecasting Region and NYMTC Planning Area ...........................................61 Figure 3-3 Percent Growth of Total Population, 1990–2018 ..........................................................64 Figure 3-4 Change in Population by Age Cohort in the NYMTC Planning Area, 2010–2018 .......65 viii Figure 3-5 Total Number of Jobs by Major Industry in the NYMTC Planning Area.......................66 Figure 3-6 Total Number of Households in Each Income Bracket for the NYMTC Planning Area .......68 Figure 3-7 Population Growth by Subregion ....................................................................................70 Figure 3-8 Population Forecast for the NYMTC Planning Area .......................................................71 Figure 3-9 Employment Change by Subregion .................................................................................72 Figure 3-10 Employment Forecast for the NYMTC Planning Area ....................................................73 Figure 3-11 Average Household Size by Subregion ...........................................................................75 Figure 3-12 Labor Force Change by Subregion...................................................................................76 Figure 3-13 Labor Force Growth vs. Employment Growth in the Forecasting Region ...................79 Figure 3-14 Aggregate Number of Vehicles to Households in the NYMTC Planning Area by Subregion ...............................................................................81 Figure 3-15 Transportation Mode Choice for Daily Commuting Trips by Subregion ....................83 Figure 3-16 Travel Forecasts for the NYMTC Planning Area .............................................................84 Figure 3-17 Region-Level Domestic Freight Flows by Direction ........................................................87 Figure 3-18 Levels of Automation.........................................................................................................92 Figure 3-19 Long-term Forecast for E-commerce Retail Sales ..........................................................98 Figure 4-1 ix Safety Metrics for the NYMTC Planning Area ...............................................................116 MOVING FORWARD Figure 4-2 Motor Vehicle Fatalities (per 100 Million VMT) .............................................................116 Figure 4-3 Serious Injuries (per 100 Million VMT) ...........................................................................117 Figure 4-4 Fatalities per 100 Million Vehicle Miles Traveled by Vehicle Type ............................119 Figure 4-5 VMT Trend in the NYMTC Planning Area (2010–2019) ................................................135 Figure 4-6 Tiers of Transit Providers ...............................................................................................139 Figure 4-7 TSM&O Strategies and Actions.......................................................................................149 Figure 4-8 Greenhouse Gas Trends in New York State .................................................................156 Figure 4-9 Daily VMT Trends in New York State .............................................................................157 Figure 4-10 Electric Vehicle Registrations in New York State ..........................................................157 Figure 4-11 Total Transit Ridership in the Top Ten Urbanized Areas ............................................159 Figure 5-1 O&M Costs by Mode Federally Supported Transportation System ...........................195 Figure 5-2 O&M Cost by Agency Federally Supported Transportation System ..........................195 Figure 5-3 O&M Revenue Sources Federally Supported Transportation System ......................197 Figure 5-4 System Preservation Costs by Mode Federally Supported Transportation System 199 x Figure 5-5 Average