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La Inversión Extranjera Directa En América Latina Y El Caribe Directa Extranjera La Inversión Documento Informativo Documento informativo 2017 en América Latina y el Caribe el y América Latina en 2017 La Inversión Extranjera Directa en América Latina y el Caribe La Inversión Extranjera Directa Extranjera La Inversión Documento informativo 2017 La Inversión Extranjera Directa en América Latina y el Caribe 2 Resumen ejecutivo Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) Alicia Bárcena Secretaria Ejecutiva Antonio Prado Secretario Ejecutivo Adjunto Mario Cimoli Director de la División de Desarrollo Productivo y Empresarial Ricardo Pérez Director de la División de Publicaciones y Servicios Web El presente informe La Inversión Extranjera Directa en América Latina y el Caribe es la edición correspondiente a 2017 de la serie anual que publica la Unidad de Inversiones y Estrategias Empresariales de la División de Desarrollo Productivo y Empresarial de la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL). Su elaboración estuvo a cargo de Álvaro Calderón, Wilson Peres, Cecilia Plottier y Mathilde Closset, bajo la coordinación de Giovanni Stumpo. Las bases de datos fueron elaboradas por Leandro Cabello. Se recibieron aportes y comentarios de Mario Cimoli, Martín Abeles, Juan Carlos Ramírez, Olga Lucía Acosta, Tania García-Millán, Georgina Núñez, Claudia de Camino, Nicolo Gligo y Olaf de Groot. Se agradece la contribución de las autoridades de Gobierno y los ejecutivos de empresas consultados para la elaboración del documento. Las observaciones y sugerencias sobre el contenido de este documento pueden dirigirse a Giovanni Stumpo ([email protected]) y Álvaro Calderón ([email protected]). Los límites y los nombres que figuran en los mapas de este documento no implican su apoyo o aceptación oficial por las Naciones Unidas. Notas explicativas - Los tres puntos (...) indican que los datos faltan, no constan por separado o no están disponibles. - La raya (-) indica que la cantidad es nula o despreciable. - La coma (,) se usa para separar los decimales. - La palabra “dólares” se refiere a dólares de los Estados Unidos, salvo cuando se indique lo contrario. - La barra (/) puesta entre cifras que expresen años (por ejemplo, 2013/2014) indica que la información corresponde a un período de 12 meses que no necesariamente coincide con el año calendario. - Debido a que a veces se redondean las cifras, los datos parciales y los porcentajes presentados en los cuadros no siempre suman el total correspondiente. S.17-00431 La Inversión Extranjera Directa en América Latina y el Caribe • 2016 Índice 3 ÍNDICE Resumen ejecutivo .................................................................................................................................................... 9 Capítulo I La inversión extranjera directa en América Latina y el Caribe ........................................................................23 A. 2016: un punto de inflexión en la globalización ............................................................................................. 25 B. Los flujos globales de IED retornan a los países avanzados .......................................................................... 27 1. Los Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea, líderes en la recepción de inversiones ................................... 29 2. La creciente importancia del papel de China consolida la tríada de la globalización ............................ 31 C. La difícil coyuntura de la región ..................................................................................................................... 35 1. En 2016, la IED disminuyó un 7,9% en América Latina y el Caribe ........................................................ 35 2. El sector estrella: las energías no convencionales ................................................................................. 39 3. Escasa diversificación de países inversionistas ......................................................................................42 4. La IED sigue siendo el componente más estable de las entradas de capital ......................................... 46 5. La disminución de la rentabilidad de la IED deteriora las expectativas de inversión ............................ 48 D. Un año débil para las empresas translatinas ................................................................................................. 50 E. Es indispensable repensar las estrategias para atraer IED ........................................................................... 55 F. Análisis por país: en pocos se dinamiza la IED .............................................................................................. 58 1. Las inversiones no bajan en el Brasil pese a la recesión ........................................................................59 2. El resto de América del Sur no se recupera ........................................................................................... 63 3. México: ¿el final del dinamismo? ........................................................................................................... 68 4. Centroamérica: el buen desempeño de Panamá ..................................................................................... 70 5. En el Caribe se mantiene el liderazgo de la República Dominicana ....................................................... 75 Bibliografía ............................................................................................................................................................ 82 Anexo I.A1 ............................................................................................................................................................. 84 Capítulo II El cambio disruptivo en un sector líder: relocalización, modelos de negocios y revolución tecnológica en la industria automotriz mundial .......................................................................... 93 A. Una industria en permanente cambio............................................................................................................. 95 B. La nueva geografía: el auge de Asia Oriental ................................................................................................ 96 1. La redefinición del oligopolio mundial: una nueva tríada de regiones ................................................... 96 2. La estabilidad del grupo de empresas dominantes ...............................................................................100 3. El comercio internacional continúa siendo intraempresarial e intrarregional ...................................... 106 C. Nuevos entrantes desafían a las empresas tradicionales .......................................................................... 109 1. La competencia en la cúspide de los fabricantes ................................................................................. 109 2. El aumento del poder de los proveedores ............................................................................................. 114 D. Modelos productivos basados en tecnologías avanzadas ......................................................................116 1. Las nuevas plataformas productivas ..................................................................................................... 116 2. Las inversiones en innovación ............................................................................................................... 118 E. Cambios disruptivos en el horizonte de corto plazo ..................................................................................... 123 1. La digitalización de la industria ............................................................................................................. 125 2. Movilidad, conectividad y nuevos patrones de consumo ......................................................................136 3. Un contexto regulatorio para la sostenibilidad ............................................................................................ 139 F. Una industria entre la disrupción tecnológica y la redefinición del liderazgo mundial ...................................144 Bibliografía .......................................................................................................................................................... 146 Anexo II.A1 .......................................................................................................................................................... 153 4 Índice Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) Capítulo III La industria automotriz de México: un caso de éxito bajo tensión ...............................................................161 Introducción: la construcción de un caso de éxito .............................................................................................. 163 A. Crece la importancia de la industria automotriz mexicana .......................................................................... 163 B. El nuevo modelo de negocio: vehículos de alta gama para el mercado mundial ........................................ 174 C. Fortalecimiento de la red de proveedores .................................................................................................... 181 D. México alcanza niveles récord de producción, exportación y ventas en el mercado interno, pero presenta limitaciones en la creación de capacidades ............................................................182 E. Entre la revolución tecnológica y las nuevas políticas de los Estados Unidos ..............................................190 1. Revolución tecnológica y competitividad:
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