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IMAX China Holding (1970 HK) IMAX Chi Na Hol Ding China Consumer Discretionary 16 June 2016 IMAX China Holding (1970 HK) IMAX Chi na Hol ding Target price: HKD50.00 Share price (15 Jun): HKD39.55 | Up/downside: +26.4% Initiation: a box-office hit John Choi (852) 2773 8730 Key beneficiary of China becoming the largest cinema market by 2017 [email protected] Earnings quality expected to improve significantly over 2016-18 Carlton Lai (852) 2532 4349 Initiating with a Buy (1) call and target price of HKD50.00 [email protected] Investment case: We believe IMAX China is one of the most effective Share price performance ways for investors to gain exposure to both growing Mainland discretionary (HKD) (%) incomes and fast-growing box-office revenue. Although the total number of 60 180 movie screens in China quadrupled from 2011-15 (40% CAGR), the 53 158 penetration rate in China, measured in terms of both demand (film 45 135 38 113 attendance per urban capita) and supply (screens per urban capita), has 30 90 remained low compared to other major economies (ie, the US and Korea). Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 We expect overall movie attendance in China to remain on an uptrend for IMAX (LHS) Relative to HSI (RHS) the foreseeable future, with the Mainland movie industry set to overtake the US’s as the world’s largest by 2017. Given that IMAX is by far the most 12-month range 34.25-59.70 recognised brand among the premium offerings in China, IMAX China Market cap (USDbn) 1.81 should remain a key beneficiary of the industry’s growth, whose top line we 3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 7.24 forecast to rise at a CAGR of 22% for 2016-18. Shares outstanding (m) 355 Major shareholder IMAX Corp (68.5%) Although our top- and bottom-line growth forecasts for the company show a Financial summary (USD) decelerating trend from 2015-18, we expect the quality of the company’s Year to 31 Dec 16E 17E 18E earnings to gradually improve, as it derives a growing proportion of revenue Revenue (m) 148 174 201 from a share of box-office takings. Specifically, we forecast recurring Operating profit (m) 72 86 102 Net profit (m) 60 76 92 revenue to account for 71% of total revenue by end-2017, up from 56% in Core EPS (fully-diluted) 0.170 0.213 0.259 2015. We also like IMAX China’s relatively high revenue visibility, given it EPS change (%) 21.3 25.5 21.4 has a theatre backlog equivalent to 90% of its existing network, and Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) (1.3) (4.1) (5.6) PER (x) 30.0 23.9 19.7 because of its gradually expanding net margin, driven by the company’s Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 high operating leverage business model. DPS 0.000 0.000 0.000 PBR (x) 8.3 6.2 4.7 Catalysts: Announcements of IMAX China winning contracts to build new EV/EBITDA (x) 19.9 16.1 13.1 ROE (%) 32.1 29.6 27.1 major theatres, and strong monthly box-office numbers in China would be Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts share-price catalysts. Meanwhile, favourable regulatory changes and improvements in China’s economy could also provide a boost. Valuation: We initiate coverage of IMAX China with a Buy (1) call and 12- month TP of HKD50.00, based on a target PER of 34x on the average of our 2016-17E EPS, derived by applying a 20% premium to the average trading multiple of its global exhibitors and studio peers. We believe IMAX China deserves to trade at a substantial premium to these peers on: 1) its superior asset-light business model, 2) the company’s exclusive positioning in the world’s fastest growing cinema market, and 3) its substantially higher net margins and ROE. As a cross-check, our DCF-derived valuation is HKD48.8, 2% below our target price. Risks: The primary risk to our call is the increasing number of premium cinema technologies in China eroding IMAX China’s brand power and subsequently weakening its future negotiations for box office revenue- sharing rates. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 33 IMAX China Holding (1970 HK): 16 June 2016 Table of contents A huge appetite for movies ...................................................................................... 6 China’s entertainment segment: still nascent .....................................................................6 FAQ: How many theatres can IMAX ultimately open in China? ..........................................9 What’s different about IMAX? ............................................................................................9 FAQ: Will cinemas still be relevant in 5 years, given the major advances in home-theatre technology? ..................................................................................................................... 10 “High-Definition” revenue visibility .......................................................................13 Shifting business models ................................................................................................. 13 Key assumptions for IMAX China box-office revenue ...................................................... 14 FAQ: How does China’s film quota affect IMAX China? ................................................... 17 Enhanced earnings quality .....................................................................................22 A prime reason for multiple expansion ............................................................................. 22 Valuation and Risks ................................................................................................24 Stock looks oversold ........................................................................................................ 24 Risks ................................................................................................................................ 27 Appendix: management/shareholder structure ....................................................28 2 IMAX China Holding (1970 HK): 16 June 2016 How do we justify our view? Growth outlook Valuation Earnings revisions Growth outlook IMAX China: adjusted operating profit and net profit With a theatre backlog (ie, theatres for which contracts 110 60% have been signed but are not yet built) equivalent to 90% 100 90 of its existing theatre network, IMAX China’s revenue 80 visibility is fairly high, in our view. We forecast a project 70 40% 60 theatre-network CAGR of 27% over 2015-18, and a total 50 revenue CAGR of 22%, given its growing number of 40 20% revenue-sharing agreements vs. sales-type agreements 30 20 (selling equipment upfront). 10 0 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E As a result, we expect the company’s earnings quality to Adjusted operating profit (USDm) Adjusted net profit (USDm) improve throughout 2016-18 and its adjusted net margin to Adj. operating margin (%) Adj. net margin (%) expand from 37% for 2015 to 46% by end-2018, driven Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts largely by improved operating leverage. Valuation IMAX China: 1-year forward PER bands The stock is trading currently at a significant premium to its 60.0 +1 sd +0.5 sd global exhibitor and studio peers, which we think is justified 55.0 mean by its: 1) superior asset-light business model, 2) exclusive 50.0 positioning in the world’s fastest-growing cinema market, 45.0 -0.5 sd and 3) substantially higher net margin and ROE. 40.0 -1 sd We value IMAX China at a target PER of 34x on the 35.0 average of our 2016-17E EPS, derived by applying a 20% 30.0 Oct-15 Oct-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Apr-16 Apr-16 Jan-16 Jun-16 premium to the average trading multiple of the company’s Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Nov-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Dec-15 May-16 May-16 global exhibitors and movie studio peers. A PER of 34x is 26.5x 30.0x 33.5x in line with the stock’s average trading PER since its IPO in 37.1x 40.6x Price October 2015. Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts IMAX China: Bloomberg-consensus EPS forecast revisions Earnings revisions The Bloomberg-consensus EPS revisions have been 0.24 largely on an uptrend for both 2016 and 2017, likely due to 0.23 0.22 the company’s incremental theatre signings. 0.21 0.20 Our EPS forecasts for 2016-18 are 1-6% below consensus, 0.19 largely a result of our lower revenue forecasts, as we 0.18 0.17 assume the proportion of sales-type contracts will decline 0.16 (implying less upfront revenue). We expect the company to 0.15 win more revenue-sharing agreements, which would provide it with increased recurring revenue. 30-Oct-15 30-Apr-16 31-Jan-16 29-Feb-16 31-Mar-16 30-Nov-15 31-Dec-15 31-May-16 2016E 2017E Source: Bloomberg 3 IMAX China Holding (1970 HK): 16 June 2016 Financial summary Key assumptions Year to 31 Dec 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E China Box office (CNYm) 14,137 17,747 22,561 30,052 41,530 54,819 70,717 88,396 Greater China IMAX box office (USDm) n.a. 101 147 203 312 437 569 711 Sales-type theatres (per unit) 58 74 88 107 130 167 199 224 Full revenue sharing theatres (per unit) 30 51 75 102 131 176 226 281 Hybrid revenue sharing theatres (per n.a. 3 10 25 46 64 89 119 unit) Gross IMAX China PSA (USDm) n.a. 1.21 1.23 1.22 1.34 1.35 1.36 1.37 Profit and loss (USDm) Year to 31 Dec 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E Theatre Business 0 37 42 60 82 107 120 133 Film Business 0 9 13 19 28 41 54 67 Other Revenue 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Revenue 0 47 56 78 111 148 174 201 Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 COGS 0 (22) (24) (32) (38) (49) (56) (62) SG&A 0 (8) (9) (11) (24) (19) (21) (24) Other op.expenses 0 (1) (2) (4) (6) (8) (11) (13) Operating profit 0 15 21 31 42 72 86 102 Net-interest inc./(exp.) 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 Assoc/forex/extraord./others 0 0 0 (2) (214) 3 7 11 Pre-tax profit 0 15 21 29 (171) 75 95 115 Tax 0 (3) (3) (6) (11) (15) (19) (23) Min.
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