ISSN 2397-9127
PRINCIPIUM The Newsletter of the Initiative for Interstellar Studies Issue 13 | May 2016
■■ Guest Introduction by Kieran Twaites ■■ News from the Initiative ■■ The 1,000 Year Starship
■■ Sending ourselves to the stars? - 2 R O ■■ Photo Feature: BIS Daedalus starship model F E V ■■ Project Icarus: Introduction I T
A
I
T
I
N I
S T U D I E S
www.i4is.org Scientia ad sidera Knowledge to the stars
Principium | Issue 13 | May 2016 1 Here is a vision of this vessel from Alex's website www.thelightdream.net, quoted with the permission Editorial of its writer Richard Hayes - A vast spaceship stands out against the infinity of Our Guest Introduction is by Kieran Twaites, a the interstellar void. It has the distinctive design of student in year 9 at Reigate Grammar School, UK. an Enzmann starship, the huge front globe holding His thesis is "Warp drive is possible". Kieran has the deuterium propellant that powers its nuclear been interested in Interstellar Studies since 2012 fusion drive, with living quarters extending behind. when he was 10 years old. And he's been studying Many lighted windows show that it is crewed, and well beyond the school curriculum, as you will see. several generations may live and die on board before it reaches its destination. Its name stands Interstellar News this time reports on the latest out proudly – Demesne – and it might indeed be Tennessee Valley Interstellar Workshop (TVIW), the sole domain of these travellers for many years, the last few weeks of the Cosmonauts at the London possibly even centuries. Science Museum and perhaps the biggest news of the year 2016, Project Starshot. We also report new The engines of this spectacular craft achieve work of interstellar interest by both our own team speeds to a significant percentage of the speed of and others and welcome new volunteers helping i4is light, but they are now silent. We think that it might do a better job of advancing the Interstellar cause. have already achieved its cruising velocity, except for the existence of a smaller spacecraft which Our big feature this month is a meditation, both is approaching under power – such a hazardous positive and negative, on the prospects for human transfer is unlikely during the voyage. No, this interstellar flight, titled the1,000 Year Starship. starship is stationary, probably before the start of Stephen Ashworth is a well known commentator on its journey. matters interstellar. He has written numerous papers for the Journal of the British Interplanetary Society. We question the purpose of the coming rendezvous His blog at www.astronist.co.uk is usually thought- between these vessels. A portal is opening in provoking, often controversial and always readable. the side of the starship, so the smaller craft is welcome. Perhaps the final members of the crew In this issue, I conclude my own musings on are arriving before their epic voyage begins, reaching the stars as Digital Persons, Sending anticipating the challenge of what awaits them – ourselves to the stars? Looking at the philosophy of and their descendants. Other Minds and wrapping up with some of the most thought-provoking ideas in this area from SF writers. And with lasers so much in our thoughts we have a beautiful laser spectrum diagram for our rear cover, Our i4is team member, Terry Regan, has now completed his 1:450 scale model of the BIS John I Davies, Editor, Principium Daedalus starship design. This time we have a [email protected] photographic taster, ahead of the formal unveiling of the model at the BIS Charterhouse conference later this year. Keep in touch! Join in the conversation by following the As regular readers will know, Daedalus was the first i4is on our Facebook page www.facebook. com/InterstellarInstitute major design study for an interstellar spacecraft. Its You can also become part of our profes- successor, Project Icarus, is a cooperative project sional network on LinkedIn www.linkedin. of the BIS and our friends in Icarus Interstellar. In com/groups/4640147 this issue we feature an introduction to this work by And take a look at the i4is blog, The Star- Peter Milne, BIS, and Rob Swinney, i4is. ship Log www.i4is.org/the-starship-log Follow us on Twitter at @I4Interstellar The front cover illustration this month is by our And seek out our followers too! old friend, artist and musician Alex Storer. It is Contact us on email via [email protected]. a modern visualisation of an Enzmann starship, Demesne. The views of our writers are their own. We aim for sound science, but not editorial orthodoxy. Principium | Issue 13 | May 2016 2 Warp drive is possible If you’d like to know how then please read on… INTRODUCTION There have been many apparently unbreakable escalator. It works because the star ship itself barriers that we have crossed. They said Man is not moving, it is merely the space time it is could not fly but the Wright brothers built the first sitting on is moving. All the Physics works, aircraft. They said the sound barrier could not be and the Maths is sound, however there is one broken, we built supersonic and even passenger problem I've always had with this theory; the jets that do it. We set ourselves the target of energy required is enormous, not just in normal landing a man on the Moon and returning safely. energy, but also in negative energy, a substance Travelling faster than that has opposite light is just the next properties to normal of these "impossible" matter (note: this is barriers to be breached. not to be confused with antimatter; How will this be done? which simply has a Please read on to find negative charge to out. their corresponding particles in the Everyone’s seen Star standard model of Trek, when Captain Kirk particle physics, as says to Sulu ‘warp factor far as we know so
9’, and the Enterprise 1) How an Alcubierre drive would work far), such as being goes zipping across the Galaxy, repelled by a gravitational field but how much fact is there in this fiction? rather than attracted to a gravitational field, The most popular and widely accepted warp and travelling away from an object when it drive mechanism is something known as an is attracted to it. This produces a negative Alcubierre drive, named after the scientist who energy density around the spacecraft, which first theorised it, Miguel Alcubierre. Simply put, prevents the whole thing from collapsing into Kieran Twaites space time in front of the star ship is compressed, a black hole. We have created extremely small and space time behind it is expanded a bit like an quantities of what we think to be negative
My name is Kieran Twaites. I am 14, mad keen on Cosmology, Quantum and Temporal Mechanics, and hope in the future to change the way we look at space, time, and the inner workings of the Cosmos.
I have been a member of i4is for 4 years and first became involved when I met Kelvin F Long, Executive Director of i4is, at the Starfest astronomy convention in 2012. Although I was only 10 years old at the time, I had many burning questions about liquefaction of space time and interstellar travel. Kelvin was very gra- cious and patient, answering all my questions, however daft they must have seemed to him. He then set me some questions about travel times to Pluto using different forms of propulsion.
Kelvin kindly gave me a copy of his book entitled "Deep Space Propulsion" and we kept in touch by email. He continued to answer my questions as kindly as ever and we discussed my new thoughts on faster than light propulsion, most of which included science which was very much unproved at the time, such as the Higgs field or negative matter.
I was invited to join i4is by Kelvin and jumped at the chance to get more involved. This led to me being asked to take the Interstellar Minimum paper last year. It was very difficult with many new concepts for me to grasp. Kelvin’s book was an invaluable guide and I was lucky enough to pass the exam and was award- ed my certificate by Rob Swinney at Starfest 2015.
I try to keep up with all the latest developments and discoveries in Science. I regularly attend lectures at both the Royal Institution and Royal Society and have been lucky enough to chat with many eminent lead- ing scientists. They, like Kelvin, have taken all my questions seriously and given fantastic answers. These people, of which there are far too many to list, have inspired me to seek a career in Quantum Mechanics, Cosmology, and interstellar travel. I am very focused and driven in my desire to succeed in everything I attempt. Who knows what I can achieve with the help of others for the benefit of mankind?
Principium | Issue 13 | May 2016 3 matter in the lab using something than the speed of light, the probably not, as - called the Casimir effect, where denominator must be the square a) we’ve never found any proof 2 plates are drawn together by a root of a negative number, so for their existence, and most larger pressure outside (created it is imaginary. To balance the scientists don’t think they exist at by quantum fluctuations, where equation and make the energy all, and matter – antimatter pairs are real, the numerator must also b) a substance that has imaginary created and destroyed) on the be imaginary. Travelling faster mass is very unstable, and is plates than between them, than the speed of light has very commonly called an ‘instability’ forming a negative pressure strange effects, such as gaining rather than a particle. So it seems between the plates, and there is energy as time passes (from the then that we might have to forget other evidence to suggest the point of view of the observer). negative mass altogether. existence of negative energy This is because as you approach In 2012, the Higgs Boson was up in the cosmos. Dark energy the speed of light, your personal discovered at the LHC (Large is a mysterious repulsive force time slows down. To help Hadron Collider) in Geneva that is sending all the galaxies explain this I’m afraid I’m going Switzerland. As Peter Higgs in the universe away from each to have to use another equation proved, this new particle gives other. If this ‘dark energy’ does dx+dy+dz+dt=c. This means other particles mass by having turn out to be negative energy, it that if I am not moving in any them pass through a field known would outweigh normal matter of the 3 spatial dimensions (i.e. as the ‘Higgs Field’. 14 : 1. To propel an adequately standing still), I am travelling This got me thinking ‘if a photon, sized star ship for human travel, through time at 186,282 miles which has no mass, can travel at we are supposed to find the per second (c). However if I then the speed of light, then why not equivalent negative energy as the start running at 1 mile per second just take away the Higgs Field mass of Jupiter, which doesn’t (and yes, I know that’s probably from around the space craft?’ I sound too bad, however you can’t not physically or biologically later discovered that this would exactly just ‘scoop’ it up, and it is possible, but please suspend your fail for two important reasons. extremely difficult to manufacture disbelief for this bit), to balance in any sort of quantity. out the equation, I would then 1) Thinking that I was onto So it seems then that if we want travel through time at 186,281 something, a couple of years to achieve Gene Roddenberry's miles per second, - ago I attended the Cheltenham dream of having warp drive by Science festival, where Peter 2063, we might have to take a Higgs himself was present. look at some other options. - and so on. So logically, if your Knowing that putting matter and Tachyons are theoretical particles speed in the 3 spatial dimensions antimatter together resulted in a outside of the standard model exceeds the speed of light, your total conversion from mass into that travel faster than the speed speed through time must be energy, I thought that if you could of light. These act in a rather odd negative to balance the equation. somehow surround the ship in sort of way, as they accelerate, But doesn't this gaining energy an anti-Higgs field, the result they approach the speed of light, and things that tachyons do sound slowing down, and also gain like what negative energy as our personal time moves matter would do? forward. This is made possible by How is imaginary their imaginary mass. But how mass different from can a mass be only imaginary? negative mass? To travel faster than the speed of Well, it’s not all that light, a tachyon’s squared mass m2 different, imaginary < 0. This indeed appears to be the mass is just negative case, as the tachyon’s energy has mass squared. to be real, and- So what if you could use these particles to exceed the speed . of light yourself? 2) Analogy for the Higgs Mechanism Credit: www.dreams- When a particle travels faster Unfortunately for us, time.com
Principium | Issue 13 | May 2016 4 would be an eradication of the Mechanics, and move on to the example if I threw a tennis ball Higgs Field surrounding the ship, (slightly) more normal realms of at 10mph out of a car straight allowing it to travel at speeds General Relativity. travelling at 70mph, the tennis greater than c. However on In 1905, Albert Einstein gave ball would be travelling at asking Prof. Higgs, he explained us Special Relativity, and, 10 80mph. However, in the headlight to me that the Higgs Boson is its years later, General Relativity. analogy, c+(v
4) 3d representation of a Wormhole. Credit: Jean-Pierre Luminet & shutterstock.com
Principium | Issue 13 | May 2016 5 3) Comparison of Kepler 22b and Earth, credit: NASA/Ames/JPL-Caltech space, a white hole is expanding it. An Einstein-Rosen bridge is 1) In theory, you could travel at gravity, it has an infinitely long basically just a tunnel joining infinite velocity, as if you are well, so it’s plausible that black these points together. ripping through space time you holes must ‘rip’ space time. This aren’t actually travelling through is where our knowledge of black So what we’re really making space time and therefore not holes ends; beyond here is theory is a black hole. So beyond the travelling through time, so you are and speculation. As you are, in event horizon it has infinite travelling a finite distance in no effect, travelling inside a black gravity. At this point nothing, time. hole here, we have literally no not even light, can escape. For idea what would happen to the anything unfortunate enough to 2) Even though this would spacecraft other than it would have mass, a process known as require masses of energy, it probably be quite unpleasant. spaghettification occurs, where would require no negative each individual atom of the object matter, as this is basically what In 1935, Einstein teamed up with is prised apart from one another, black holes do and they only use Nathan Rosen to come up with a slowly falling into the black 8.897676269494494636 x10^36 theory to apply general relativity abyss. So then, not a good way MJ (OK, so it’s a fair amount, but to electrons. The resulting paper for a maiden flight to end. that’s beside the point) "accidentally" showed how to link either 2 black holes or 1 It was looking bleak, but in the However, as usual, there is a black hole and 1 white hole (even November 2014 issue of the BIS fundamental problem with this: though they had no interest in monthly newsletter “Spaceflight”, gravity is simply a ‘well’ in the black holes, but, still). A white there was an article entitled “The fabric of space time. However, hole is simply the opposite of a Tachyon World”. This got me with a black hole, because over black hole. In geometric terms, rather excited, and began to read. the event horizon it has infinite if a black hole is compressing But there was one paragraph that Principium | Issue 13 | May 2016 6 stood out above all the rest: up at a star just wonder “will we particles-like-quarks-electrons- get there?” more-image36797425. Last “Then at this point, an object accessed 7th Feb 2016. no longer has a limit, it has Image and Quotation References: 3. Dr Tony Philips (2016). no more need to accelerate or 1. Anderson Institute (2013). Is Kepler-22b. Available: decelerate. It is now, without faster-than-light travel possible? en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepler-22b inertia but 370,000 times the Available: www.kurzweilai.net/is- Last accessed 7th Feb 2016. speed of light, in a non-inertial faster-than-light-travel-possible. 4. Credit: Jean-Pierre Luminet & state relative to our side of Last accessed 7th Feb 2016 shutterstock.com. the ‘universe’, without mass 2. Designua (2016). The Higgs 5. Robert B Cronkhite. The or even momentum, on the Mechanism. Available: www. Tachyon World. BIS Spaceflight other side of the grand Event dreamstime.com/royalty-free- Vol 56 No 11 November 2014. Horizon, in reverse time. It is stock-photo-higgs-mechanism- a Tachyon Particle and is thus higgs-field-any-interaction-to- tunnelling. At this velocity, now gave-mass-to-any-subatomic- unmeasurable and unobservable to us, it has travelled 100 light years in under 2.5 hours and is 100 years in the past.”(5)
Summarised, the article is investigating the idea that our observable universe might just be one layer of a much larger picture, and that there may be other Universes out there where particles are superluminal, and time travels backwards.
However, as always, there is a problem: even if you could find a way to traverse into this alternate reality, you would be going backwards in time, and then if you tried to then get back to this side of the pond, you’d encounter Kieran Twaites receiving his certificate of completion of the Interstellar all kinds of causality problems. Minimum paper from Rob Swinney, Deputy Director of i4is, credit:i4is So not the best solution, and I certainly don’t think we’ll be able to achieve this by Gene Roddenberry’s deadline of 5th About the Author Kieran Twaites is a student in year 9 at Reigate Grammar April, 2063 School, Surrey, UK. He is currently studying Physics, Chem- istry, Biology, Maths, Statistics, English Language, English But at least it does show us Literature, Computing, Product Design, Geography and Latin that there are limitless options at IGCSE level and aims to study Maths, Physics, Chemistry to bending the rules of the and Computing at A-level, before moving on to university to universe, some of which only complete a first degree in Physics. He envisages a career have technological issues, others in Theoretical Physics, Cosmology or Interstellar science / of which have more fundamental technology. He successfully completed the i4is Interstellar flaws. I hope this has inspired Minimum paper in 2015. He is the youngest person, by some you to look at the Universe in a margin, to achieve this so far. new light, so next time you look
Principium | Issue 13 | May 2016 7 JohnInterstellar Davies with the latest interstellar-related News news.
Project Starshot As you may have noticed, the Breakthrough Initiative recently announced Project Starshot (breakthroughinitiatives.org/ News/4). This is a $100 million research and engineering programme that aims to develop a proof of concept for light beam- powered nanocraft and laying the foundations for an eventual launch to Alpha Centauri within a generation. Under the leadership of - • Yuri Milner • Stephen Hawking • Pete Worden TVIW 2016 - left to right - Kelvin F Long (i4is), Robert Kennedy (TVIW - we expect great things in the Chair), Angelo Genovese (i4is), Stefan Zeidler (i4is), and Rob Swinney (i4is) fairly near future! i4is was at the Chattanooga ChooChoo hotel involved in Project Starshot speakers included Lt. Gen. Steven research enterprise with serious before the announcement and Kwast (USAF), Jim Benford, backing. three i4is people are on the Robert Kennedy, Eric Hughes, More at Management and Advisory Bruce Wiegmann (NASA), Jason www.centauri-dreams.org/?p=35402 Committee of the Project - Cassibry, Gerald Cleaver, Al There will, of course, be more • Freeman Dyson, FRS, a Jackson, Rex Ridenoure, Philip about Project Starshot in future member of our own Advisory Lubin, John Lewis, Ken Roy, issues of Principium. Committee James Schwartz and Cameron • Kelvin F Long, our Executive Smith - plus our own Greg TVIW Director, Matloff and Angelo Genovese Perhaps the most established of • Greg Matloff, chair of our - and I haven't mentioned the those "specialist conferences" Advisory Committee parallel tracks! More in the TVIW Paul Gilster mentions is the newsletter, Have Starship, Will Tennessee Valley Interstellar Our old friend Paul Gilster has Travel (www.tviw.us/sites/tviw. Workshop (TVIW). The 2016 summed up the importance of us/files/TVIW_Newsletter_N09_ event took place in Chattanooga, this - Compressed.pdf). Tennessee (28 Feb - 2 Mar) Breakthrough Starshot is an with the theme From Iron Horse instrumented flyby of Alpha Rob and Kelvin also visited to Worldship: Becoming an Centauri with an exceedingly JPL, NASA Ames, the Planetary Interstellar Civilization and a short time-frame. Society, visited Griffith wide ranging agenda, www.tviw. Milner is putting $100 million Observatory and the City us/tviw-2016-agenda. Many of into the mission concept, an University New York as part of the most prominent researchers in amount that dwarfs what their US tour. our subject were present, as usual, any individual, corporation and we will be looking at some or government has ever put It's been a long time... of the papers in future issues of into interstellar research. A The Cosmonauts exhibition at Principium. discipline that has largely the London Science Museum been the domain of specialist ended in March. The reminders Rob Swinney and Kelvin F Long conferences — and in the of what was achieved in human of i4is were there and Kelvin gave scheme of things, not many spaceflight in the 1960s by Soviet the after-dinner speech. Other of those — now moves into a cosmonauts and engineers, closely
Principium | Issue 13 | May 2016 8 were delivered by Professor Tsiolkovsky 1911 quotation Chris Welch of the International from Cosmonauts Space University, Professor Ian exhibition Crawford of Birkbeck College, The exhibits were striking but University of London and, from perhaps the spirit was best i4is, Robert Swinney, chair of conveyed by a quote covering our Eduction Committee, who a wall at the exit organised the event and delivered Source: Science Museum, several of the modules, Angelo Picture: John I Davies Genovese, Andreas Hein, John I Davies, Kelvin F Long, Marc followed by US counterparts, at length, then this looks like an Casson, Sam Harrison and were contrasted with our more attractive combination. Stephen Ashworth. Several of recent steady but slower progress our i4is contributors are from by Stephen Ashworth. Stephen We also noticed a fascinating leading European companies and contributes elsewhere to this piece by Swedish and American institutions. We aimed to broaden issue but a recent post by him, 55 Astronomers Terrestrial Planets and deepen students' knowledge years of men and women in space Across Space And Time (arxiv. of starship design and technology. reminds us that the first human in org/pdf/1602.00690v1.pdf). It's We also covered philosophical, Earth orbit now dates back before a very detailed analysis of where social and economic issues in many living memories. His we might expect terrestrial planets interstellar studies. We'll be survey produces some sobering looking at star classes, galaxy reporting back in more detail from conclusions. Most strikingly - types and the distorting effects Strasbourg in the next issue. since the retirement of the Shuttle of seeing the universe through the numbers flying to space what we might call "historical Welcome to i4is annually have been extremely low, binoculars" given the finite speed The i4is team has recently been less than a quarter of their 1985 of light. joined by new volunteers who peak just before the Challenger are helping with our support disaster. More at www.astronist. i4is at the International Space technology and our outreach. So co.uk/astro_ev/2016/ae124.shtml University please say hello to - The Initiative for Interstellar • Michael Grant, IT consultant Some notable recent papers Studies delivered a 2-week and Project Manager Andreas Hein, Deputy Director, elective to the students on • Bill Skopelitis, Media i4is, working with Nikolaos the Masters of Space Studies Consultant Perakis of Technical University course at the International Space • Yannis Argyropoulos, Software of Munich (TUM) have published University, Strasbourg, 2-13 Engineer Combining Magnetic and May 2016. The course modules All are based in London, UK Electric Sails for Interstellar Deceleration, Andreas Hein on Interstellar Deceleration (hal. archives-ouvertes.fr/hal- 01278907/document). Following on work by TUM as part of i4is Project Dragonfly they show that a magnetic sail is most effective at high velocities and an electric sail at lower velocities. If we wish The 21 students on the 2 week Interstellar elective at the International Space to decelerate an interstellar probe, University, Strasbourg with Professor Chris Welch (black shirt), ISU, and Kelvin F Long (white shirt), i4is. and thus study our target system
Principium | Issue 13 | May 2016 9 The Initiative for Interstellar Studies presents
‘BEYOND THE BOUNDARY’ is a ground-breaking new book looking at the possibilities of interstellar fl ight, including BEYOND the technology that will THE BOUNDARY drive our starships, the “A valuable reference for those interested in planets and stars that will interstellar travel” – Les Johnson be our destinations, the sociological basis and Exploring the impact of becoming a science and culture of interstellar spaceflight space-faring civilisation and how our interstellar Edited by Kelvin F Long future is depicted in art and culture.
R O F
E
V
I
T
A
I
T
I
N I
S S T U D I E
R O F E V I
T
• 448 pages, hardback edition A
I
T
I • Featuring 21 chapters written N by i4is’ interstellar experts I S • Topics as diverse as propulsion T U D I E S technology, exoplanets, art and SETI www.i4is.org
Principium | Issue 13 | May 2016 10 Project daedalus
The completed model Credit, model and image: Terry Regan A scale model for BIS John Davies presents pictures of the completed work. Terry Regan, of the Initiative for Interstellar Studies and the British Interplanetary Society, has been working on this model of the craft, envisaged by a BIS team led by Alan Bond and Tony Martin, for a number of years. You may recall it on the BIS stand at the 2014 SF Worldcon. It's entirely scratch built and it's approximately 1:450 scale being 0.42m high versus the vessel itself, which would measure 190m from shield to the rim of the reaction chamber. Terry will follow up this photo-feature which with a fuller account of the final stages of the work- complementing the piece you will find in Principium 8, on his early work and plans. This really is a labour of love! We look forward to a formal unveiling at the BIS Charterhouse conference later this year, 21-23 July 2016. Principium | Issue 13 | May 2016 11 Completed first stage support structure
Construction of the first stage support structure
Principium | Issue 13 | May 2016 12 Second stage along side first stage to give size comparison
Full stack Daedalus with a good old English pint glass for scale
Principium | Issue 13 | May 2016 13 Project Peter Milne & Robert Swinney outline this joint project of the British Interplanetary Society Icarus and Icarus Interstellar.
The ghost team Icarus ICF ship design Picture credit: Adrian Mann Designed by: Project Icarus volunteers at the Technical University of Munich.
As regular readers of Principium will know, the British Interplanetary Society (BIS) undertook a study into the design of an interstellar spacecraft in the 1970s, Project Daedalus. The Daedalus mission was a flyby of Barnard’s Star, some 5.9 light years away from Earth. No deceleration was planned. The aim of the study was to show that, with then current technologies or reasonable extrapolation of near-future technologies, interstellar travel was feasible, and this was indeed accomplished. Daedalus is still thought of as the most comprehensive engineering design for an interstellar probe, although some weaknesses in the design were revealed later.
Project Icarus, now a collaboration between BIS and Icarus Interstellar in which a number of i4is members are also involved, was established to update the Daedalus concept after several decades of technological advance. The Daedalus propulsion system was based on Inertial Confinement Fusion, in which relativistic electron beams ignite cryogenic Deuterium and Helium-3 pellets, and the resultant plasma exhaust propels the vehicle, in two stages, to around 12% of the speed of light. Icarus does not advocate fusion as the only solution, or necessarily the most likely to achieve interstellar travel, but aimed to create a design that is feasible and credible using current or near-future technologies, and also to act as a comparison with the original Daedalus design. As a result, all Icarus designs are based on some form of fusion as the basis for propulsion.
Briefly, chemical, ion and plasma cannot conceivably meet the needs for interstellar travel, and antimatter drives are out of “near future” reach. Any sort of warp drive, or other faster than light technique, is
Principium | Issue 13 | May 2016 14 seemingly beyond reality if not and Plasma Jet Magneto Inertial be published soon. Indeed, theoretical physics. Nuclear Fusion (PJMIF). an abridged version of the Z fission might be a precursor, Pinch design, known as Firefly or sails/beamed sails credible These design solutions are and primarily the work of alternatives for small payloads. huge by normal standards, as Icarus Interstellar designers The advantage for fusion is that was Daedalus, because of the Robert Freedland and Michel the high energy available permits fuel required and no apparent Lamontagne, has already been a high exhaust velocity, which way to shrink the heavy fusion published in a recent issue of closely determines the achievable propulsion system and because JBIS (volume 68, number 3/4) in cruise velocity, and the physics is of the cooling systems required September 2015. fairly well known. to remove waste heat. All of the designs are hundreds of In general, the fusion technologies A new target star system was metres long with a mass of many investigated by the project selected for Project Icarus; Alpha thousands of tonnes, of which a Icarus team suggest that it Centauri. This star system is significant proportion is the fusion will be possible to make a 100 slightly closer to Earth, and is also fuel. The typical cruise speed year journey to Alpha Centauri more interesting scientifically as is around 5% of the speed of sometime in the near future, a binary system which may even light, which was well within that although still some decades away. include an exoplanet. A third star, thought theoretically possible for Proxima Centauri, may also be fusion and partly because of the About the Authors: bound to this star system, but at a need to complete the journey in Peter Milne is a Chartered large distance. Instead of a flyby a “reasonable” time – set at 100 Engineer and Chartered Physicist, mission, the Icarus spacecraft years to reach Alpha Centauri. and has worked in the satellite requirement is to decelerate and Because of the inherently large industry for over 40 years. launch probes to explore the star propulsion system, Icarus can Robert Swinney is a Chartered system. carry a significant payload of 150 Engineer and retired Squadron tonnes, which includes the sub- Leader from the Royal Air Force, The original aim of Project Icarus probes, other scientific equipment where he was an Aerosystems was to complete the study by to explore and study the three Engineering Officer. Rob was one 2015, but several issues prevented stars of this system and any of the founders of the Initiative this. Some results have already potential planets and moons, and for Interstellar Studies, where been published in the Journal the materials to construct a large he is now Deputy Director, of the British Interplanetary communications antenna to enable Finance Director and Chair of the Society (JBIS), and further papers high data rate communications Educational Academy Committee. are anticipated through 2016, with Earth. He is also a Director and Project following a critical review of Leader at Icarus Interstellar. designs and papers undertaken at The project team continues to Both are Fellows of the British the end of February. refine the designs, and papers Interplanetary Society. describing four of them should For the first few years, team members carried out significant research into various aspects of science and technology required for an interstellar probe. In 2013, we completed different Project Icarus concept designs, based on different fusion propulsion systems; Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF), both laser ignited shock ignition and fast ignition variants; Z Pinch; ultra dense deuterium laser driven fusion; from "A Plumber’s Guide to Starships" (www.icarusinterstellar.org) showing the main elements of the cooling system. Credit: Michel Lamontagne, Icarus Interstellar
Principium | Issue 13 | May 2016 15 Sending ourselves to the stars? Sending our physical bodies to other worlds looks very difficult. Could a solution be to send our digital selves? John Davies considers more issues which arise from this proposi- tion. Resumption of their behaviour. But some In the February 2016 issue of philosophers disagree and it may Principium I introduced the fail the refutability test2 and thus concept of Artificial General be dismissed as "not science" by Intelligence, as distinct from many. the specialised AIs which can drive cars or translate languages. Concentrating on the specific Inspired by my i4is colleague case of a transcendent or digital Andreas Hein (Transcendence person - How can we know that Going Interstellar, www. such a transcendent "person" is centauri-dreams.org/?p=30837), I a real person? If s/he is a real explained both bottom-up routes person (within whatever definition to AGI, building artificial nervous we choose to use) then are they systems, and top-down routes, the same person as the original simulating human behaviours. biological person from whom I finished with the highly they may have been derived? speculative idea of developing Even if we have managed to copy an intelligence as “part of the the original non-destructively, family”, perhaps by instrumenting how can even the original human a familiar childhood toy, a know that the copy is identical Teddy Bear. And another look at to him/her? Clearly any digital Superintelligence Turing's Mind paper (cited last person starts immediately to have Paths, Dangers, Strategies time) reveals that he envisaged different experiences (that's the Nick Bostrom educating a "child computer", point if we are going to send her/ Paperback: April 2016 ISBN: 9780198739838 although he assumed it would not him to the stars). Will it ever have arms and legs..... be certain that we have made a able to visit the Alpha Centauri "good enough" copy? If we raise system with a round trip time In this second and concluding and educate a digital person, of around 8 years - and will be set of musings I discuss how we rather than copying or emulating effectively immortal so will be should treat Digital Persons, if and an existing biological person, able to tell us all about it several when they exist. I describe how then how do determine their times over - even in our own short Artificial General Intelligence "personhood"? And with all that lifetimes. (AGI) has had some “false uncertainty, how will we feel dawns”. And I wrap up with a that the human race has mention of just a few of the more actually visited another thoughtful examinations of the stellar system? possibilities of AGI in science fiction. But perhaps it's not unlike the knowledge The status of Digital Persons that most Europeans had One of the oldest problems of the USA or Australia in philosophy is the Other before the era of mass air Minds problem1. What entitles travel. My cousin sailed us to our belief that other to Australia in 1960 human beings have inner with her new Australian lives? A commonsensical (and husband and I didn't see philosophically respectable) view her again for 30 years. Migrants to Australia in 1954 Credit: Australian National Archive is that this is the best explanation A digital person will be Principium | Issue 13 | May 2016 16 Looking at a wider picture, 50s and 60s evaporated when so far. How may we evaluate what is it to be human? Recent the Lighthill report5 formed the proposed AI technologies and even some contemporary basis for the decision by the in the future? Falsifiability cultures are known to define British government to end support is an important, though not some other members of the for AI research in all but three uncontested7, test for scientific species Homo Sapiens as less universities. respectability. Sandberg and then human. Philosophers and Bostrom's Whole Brain Emulation moralists have tried to determine In the USA the report of the (WBE) roadmap says - the human status of embryos, "Automatic Language Processing "Brain emulation is currently persons in various forms of coma Advisory Committee" in 19666, only a theoretical technology. and even some "higher" This makes it vulnerable to non-human species such as speculation, “handwaving” apes and whales. The status and untestable claims. As of digital persons seems proposed by Nick Szabo, suitable for the same sort of “falsifiable design” is analysis, probably equally a way of curbing the inconclusive. And some problems with theoretical speculators on our interstellar technology". future imply that the stars Szabo8 says "We lack a good are the province of some discipline of theoretical sort of machine intelligence technology." and suggests rather than a biologically "falsifiable design" as a based one. Another of my means of evaluation. i4is colleagues, Dr Rachel Armstrong3, studies how a How much needs to be convergence of biology and emulated to achieve computing can work on earth effective WBE? Sandberg & and in our interstellar future. Bostrom (2008, cited above) It may be "both" rather than consider "scale separation". "either". For example, you don't need to emulate the analogue A wise old bird, Oswald electronics underlying a Hanfling4, used to ask "How computer system to emulate do you know that Ossie the computing behaviour of Hanfling is not a parrot?". the system. There is scale Not a parrot? The answer, of course, was Oswald Hanfling, Philosopher, at the British Society separation between the based on his behaviour. If of Aesthetiticians, 2005 Credit: Dr. Ian Ground, Uni- analogue and digital levels I met a parrot (or an AI) as versity of Hertfordshire, Department of Philosophy of the system. If WBE can smart as Ossie then I hope apply scale separation at I would be as polite to it as some intermediate level Alan Turing recommended. gained notoriety for being very then the computational demands sceptical of research done in may be less onerous, though The "False Dawn" of AGI and machine translation so far, clearly substantial. evaluating future possibilities and emphasising the need for AI in the AGI sense has a basic research in computational One of the most pessimistic reputation of being always linguistics; this eventually assessments of the problem comes 10-20 years away (There are caused the US Government to from mathematical physicist and depressing parallels for interstellar reduce its funding of the subject philosopher Roger Penrose. In researchers in the predicted and dramatically. The Emperor's New Mind (1989)9 achieved development of fusion and later works, he suggests power). In general, AI developments in the that consciousness may have last 50-60 years have promised quantum mechanical foundations. Early on, the optimism of the much and delivered only glimpses If this suggestion from a very
Principium | Issue 13 | May 2016 17 distinguished scientist is correct universe, found it not worth Clarke was hedging his bet then any digital representation pursuing, created a race of robots here. HAL was educated of a human brain is very much to fulfil that purpose and promptly heuristically (as in the example more difficult and may even be died out. Let us hope this is of neural networks in the section computationally infeasible. not prophetic of any of our own above - Top Down - simulation artificial descendants! of human behaviour) and But recall Clarke's First Law programmed algorithmically, like "When a distinguished but elderly Another cautionary example a conventional computer. scientist states that something is is, of course, HAL in 2001: A possible, he is almost certainly Space Odyssey but I assume Turning to actual transmission right. When he states that there is no need to explain what of intelligence over interstellar something is impossible, he is goes wrong in that case! Clarke distances, Greg Egan is one of the very probably wrong"10. Just a explains that HAL stands for deeper theoreticians of science "rule of thumb", of course, but Heuristic Algorithmic. So HAL fiction. Incandescence, for one to bear in mind. uses both heuristic (i.e. strategies example, builds its plot on this derived from experience with assumption and the consequences Science Fiction examples similar problems) and algorithmic or interaction between very Most of the fictional references (conventional computing) advanced sentient beings that to interstellar travel via some methods. Clarke explains - differ widely in their technology digital representation of a sentient "HAL stands for Heuristic levels and their response to the being, human or otherwise, Algorithmic, H-A-L. And that possibilities arising from being, involve some biological or very means that it can work on a in effect, digital persons. His advanced mechanical body. This program's already set up, or Permutation City eerily imagines is dramatically valuable since it it can look around for better how it might feel to be a Digital results in a "person" with whom solutions and you get the best of Person. the reader can empathise. It is both worlds. So, that's how the clearly not necessary to achieve name HAL originated."11 Most recently Charles Stross' interstellar transmission and novel, Neptune's Brood, has instantiation. If we could characters transmitted and load a human equivalent installed in "soul chips" which consciousness into a "ship are then plugged in to waiting brain" then we probably bodies like SIM cards in mobile would. Iain M Banks' "ship phones. Some bodies even have minds" in his Culture novels multiple SIM slots, just like are, in effect, the ruling some mobile phones! Stross is intelligences of his Culture. a former computer programmer But he does not use this fact to who has been articulately provide for interstellar travel, sceptical about interstellar travel good old-fashioned space so perhaps he is simply satirising warps suffice for Mr Banks! the idea of Digital Persons. His other writings (which I Another interstellar artificial recommend) suggest he is a intelligence is Salo, the serious joker. "robot" from Tralfamadore in The Sirens of Titan by And back to the inspiration for Kurt Vonnegut. Vonnegut's this piece, "Transcendence going usual black humour has this Interstellar", much cited above, AI as the descendent of a also considers the use of FTL long line of races of artificial Charles Stross at UK Eastercon 2012 communication through very beings. Each of these races, The slogan relates to a spat with small wormholes as means of back to and including their Chris Priest about the Arthur C Clarke transmitting digital persons. biological ancestors, had SF awards that year These appear as a means of sought their purpose in the viewing distant and past scenes
Principium | Issue 13 | May 2016 18 one may not be a first-generation requirement but would contribute to that feeling of humanity having actually reached the stars. I hope that I or others will be able to visit these topics in future issues of Principium.
There is a lot of controversy about when and if Digital Persons might be feasible. Some believe it is forever impossible in some fundamental sense. Roger Penrose seems to be close to this view. At the other extreme are Ray Kurzweil, who believes that The Singularity is Near12 and a whole movement, Singularitarianism13.
My own, entirely amateur, view is that Digital Persons in some form will exist in the future but I'm not sure how soon. Nor am I sure if they will ever "replace" biological humans, though I think they will surpass us in ways that we ourselves will acknowledge. Again, much scope for further discussion in Principium, in Axiom (The Journal of the Initiative for Interstellar Studies), and in Film poster for Transcendence, Credit: Warner Brothers and interstellar studies generally. We Wikipedia have a vital interest in this area of in The Light of Other Days, by piece (www.centauri-dreams. work - we will inevitably engage Arthur C Clarke and Stephen org/?p=30837) which I hope I with it. Some of our largest and Baxter. Curiously enough, have been able to decorate with a newest companies are devoting Clarke and Baxter don't include few interesting baubles. The topic investment not just in self-driving interstellar use of this technology. of Interstellar by Transmission of cars but in AGI14 . They are mainly concerned with Intelligence presents tremendous terrestrial applications, with scope for research, design and Thanks to Stephen Ashworth, echoes of Bob Shaw's short story speculation - both realistic and Andreas Hein, Kelvin Long and Light of Other Days (1966), fictional. Professor Austin Tate for their Burden of Proof (1967) and his thoughts on this subject. None novel Other Days, Other Eyes Some topics deserving of of my views above should be (1972). immediate expansion based upon attributed to them and I am in Andreas' firm foundation include either "violent agreement" or Conclusion Mind Uploading and the required disagreement with more than one This has been a tour of just a few Transmission Technologies at of them. topics arising from Andreas Hein's various levels of scale separation "Transcendence going Interstellar" and thus volume of data required. The first part of this set of and it now may be the time to Mind downloading to either a musings had an “Overture” – a go back to Andreas' excellent digital humanoid or a biological Principium | Issue 13 | May 2016 19 brief fiction illustrating how an the electron, Supplement to University" (singularityu.org) electronically-cloned Digital Experiment in Physics supported, for example, by Person might relate to a clone Appendix 6: Sometimes Google, Nokia and Cisco. twin returning from a mission Refutation Doesn't Work plato. 14. Applying “deep neural to the Epsilon Eridani system. stanford.edu/entries/physics- networks” to computer gaming May better writers challenge us experiment/app6 and objections - Volodymyr Mnih, Koray with visions like this and help to falsification as a means to Kavukcuoglu & David Silver us to prepare for the challenging scientific progress, en.wikipedia. and 18 others [all at Google experiences which will inevitably org/wiki/Falsifiability#Sokal_ DeepMind, 5 New Street Square, arise if we succeed in Sending and_Bricmont London EC4A 3TW, UK], Ourselves to the Stars. 8. Szabo, Nick, "Falsifiable "Human-level control through design: a methodology deep reinforcement learning", References for evaluating theoretical Letter in "Nature" 518, 529–533, 1. Other Minds plato.stanford. technologies" February 06, 26 February 2015 edu/entries/other-minds 2007, unenumerated.blogspot. 2. Other Minds, 3.1 The co.uk/2007/02/falsifiable-design- About the author Analogical Inference plato. methodology-for.html John I Davies is a retired stanford.edu/entries/other- 9. The Emperor's New Mind: software engineer and mobile minds/#3.1 Concerning Computers, Minds telecommunications consultant. 3. Rachel Armstrong, Professor and The Laws of Physics, Oxford More about his brief spell in space of Experimental Architecture at University Press, 1989 technology in the first part of this the Department of Architecture, 10. In "Profiles of the Future: article. He retired in 2008 and Planning and Landscape, An Inquiry into the Limits of the has been active with the Initiative Newcastle University Possible" latest edition published for Interstellar Studies since soon 4. Oswald Hanfling, lecturer in by Phoenix, 2000 after its foundation in 2012. He philosophy, Open University, 11. No live record of this but is a career-long member of the UK. Obituary: www.theguardian. consult the "Wayback Machine" British Interplanetary Society and com/news/2005/nov/29/ and find - Dr. Arthur C. Clarke has dabbled in philosophy via the guardianobituaries.obituaries Interview, Interviewer, Dr. UK Open University and latterly, 5. "Artificial Intelligence: David G. Stork, web.archive. the University of the Third Age. A General Survey" by James org/web/20011216193706/ Lighthill, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ http://2001halslegacy.com/ Lighthill_report interviews/clarke.html 6. ALPAC (Automatic Language 12. The Singularity Is Near: Processing Advisory Committee) When Humans Transcend en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ALPAC . Biology, Ray Kurzweil, Viking, 7. For example, a rejected 2005 refutation of Dirac's theory of 13. Including a "Singularity
Project Starshot – chips to the stars Project ‘Starshot’ (breakthroughinitiatives.org/News/4) is a $100 million research and engineer- ing programme that aims to develop a proof of concept for light beam-powered nanocraft and laying the foundations for an eventual launch to Alpha Centauri within a generation. The Initia- tive for Interstellar Studies has been working in technical support of the Breakthrough Initiative before its launch and will continue this support of ‘Starshot’ into the future. See Interstellar News in this issue for more about this. If we can get people into chips, as discussed in this article, and we can get chips to the stars, as the Breakthrough Initiative plans, then at least one route to the stars will be available to our species. One of the AGI-optimists at KurzweilAI, Giulio Prisco, www.kurzweilai.net/giulio-prisco, has already envisaged this “Uploaded e-crews for interstellar missions” www.kurzweilai.net/uploaded-e-crews-for-interstellar-missions
Principium | Issue 13 | May 2016 20 The Thousand-Year Starship Stephen Ashworth A prolific writer on matters interstellar considers a recent controversy and adopts an optimistic view - though with some scepticism on timescales.
Interstellar controversy Kim Stanley Robinson, author The preparation itself, wrote Rob- Our own Solar System first of the recent SF novel Aurora, inson, is “a multi-century project”. While attempting to predict the blogged in January 2016: Not everybody agrees. The 100 future growth of technology is a Year Starship organisation, led by hazardous game, some constraints “Going to the stars is often former NASA astronaut Mae Jem- on what the future might hold can regarded as humanity’s destiny, ison, is focused on the timeframe be sensibly discussed. even a measure of its success of a single century. It states on The general theme of manned as a species. But in the century its website: “We exist to make the interstellar travel is dominated by since this vision was proposed, capability of human travel beyond three major questions, the first of things we have learned about the our solar system a reality within which is whether and how quick- universe and ourselves combine the next 100 years” 2. Meanwhile ly our currently global industrial to suggest that moving out into the Starship Century book and civilisation will spread out into the galaxy may not be human- website reads like a Who’s Who the Solar System. ity’s destiny after all. […] All of the interstellar community 3. the problems [of an interstellar Whatever humans may do in our voyage] together create not an So the “100 year starship” meme local extraterrestrial environment outright impossibility, but a pro- has entered the culture, and even – living permanently away from ject of extreme difficulty, with influences work at the Interna- Earth, mining and using local very poor chances of success.” 1 tional Space University (ISU). resources, constructing infrastruc- A recent worldship study was ture and vehicles on other worlds Robinson specified three precon- undertaken by a team of 22 post- and in open space – interstellar ditions for interstellar travel to graduate students at the Interna- travel will demand an extreme become a reality: tional Space University (ISU) and version of it. Because the distanc- supported by the Initiative for In- es between neighbouring stars are • Sustainability for industrial civi- terstellar Studies (Principium 12, around five orders of magnitude lisation on Earth; p.6). Their study, now published greater than those between neigh- • At least some space colonisation as the Astra Planeta Final Report, bouring planets, the endurance of within our own Solar System (“a is based on the initial assumption any interstellar vehicle, its relia- great deal of practice in an ark or- that manned interstellar travel bility and self-sufficiency and the biting our sun”, Robinson wrote); will prove to be easy enough that energy and power of its propul- • Interstellar probes aimed spe- it is safe to specify a launch date sion system will need to be orders cifically at identifying Earth-ana- just 100 years in the future 4. The of magnitude greater than would logue planets for human occupa- 100-year timeframe is justified be acceptable for, say, a flight tion. within the terms of reference of from Earth to Mars. this study because it allows a Of these three, the first two are focus on the use of near-future One can confidently state, there- obvious and uncontroversial. The technology (p.3). fore, that interstellar travel will third is made unnecessary by not become possible until inter- virtue of the second, for if human So what are our prospects of planetary travel and colonisation life is comfortable and sustaina- developing an interstellar civi- have been thoroughly mastered. ble in at least one space colony lisation? Is it realistic to expect This has a historical precedent: orbiting the Sun, and of course in the first literal astronauts, the first the space age could not begin until the worldship itself, then the same star-sailors, to depart by the early global exploration and settlement lifestyle will be equally acceptable 22nd century, and does it matter had been brought to a high level at the destination. what we think of it now? of sophistication. Principium | Issue 13 | May 2016 21 Central Asia; kind of city, fully self-contained How quickly might the process (3) Urbanisation developing out in so far as all routine life-sup- of Solar System settlement take of village life, but with the major- port, manufacturing and recycling place? When talking about perma- ity of the population employed in functions go. nent human life away from Earth, the agricultural hinterland; what is envisaged is a new kind of (4) Industrialisation from the While being developed for Mars, life-support system quite different 18th century onwards, causing a where it will be essential for from the one we use at present. flow of population from the coun- anything more than a temporary A hierarchical progression of tryside to the cities; the agricul- scientific base, the self-contained such life-support systems can be tural hinterland still exists as the city would also see application sketched: cities’ life-support system, but is back on Earth. It could enable the itself industrialised. colonisation of regions which at (1) The hunter-gatherer-scaven- present are only sparsely populat- ger-beachcomber lifestyle of all This is where we are at present. ed. More importantly, it would our tribal ancestors up to around Living on Mars, however, or in allow existing developed areas 10,000 years ago; a space colony, the agricultur- to become progressively more (2a) Agriculture and a settled al space has to be constructed sustainable over long timescales, village life, beginning inde- together with the residential and a process which has already begun pendently in Mesopotamia and in industrial space, along with all with high-intensity greenhouse several other regions around the air, water, organic and inorganic agriculture. Extraterrestrial col- world at the end of the last ice recycling facilities which on Earth onisation is therefore intimately age; are taken for granted as part of the linked with the sustainable consol- (2b) Alternatively the nomadic pre-existing global environment. idation of industrial civilisation on pastoralist life typical for a time in This requires the creation of a new our home planet. An optimistic
Biosphere 2, Credit: www.flickr.com/photos/drstarbuck, Creative Commons
Principium | Issue 13 | May 2016 22 future scenario involves the two infrastructure and population necessary for interstellar travel: proceeding in parallel. grow, not as a function of their it is already well understood that totals on Earth itself, but from a with nuclear fusion as an ener- But the timescale will inevitably relatively small founder popu- gy source, a spacecraft could be be a long one, and for two rea- lation which is slowly added to accelerated to a few per cent of sons. over time. While growth on Earth the speed of light, and decelerated must inevitably slow down as it at its destination. Basic physics Firstly, creating such novel approaches the carrying capacity is not in question; rather we are self-contained cities away from of the planet, there will, according looking at questions of engineer- Earth will involve the solution of to a paper now due for publication ing development and econom- many interlocking problems in in 2016, inevitably be a hiatus of ics. More powerful engines will organic and inorganic recycling, several centuries before extrater- reduce the necessary journey food production, microbiology, restrial infrastructure and popu- time, longer endurance for the low-gravity physiology, embryol- lations become large enough to vehicles and their occupants will ogy, social organisation, mining resume the upward growth trend7. raise the permissible journey time, and manufacturing in an unfamil- and when these two development iar environment, skill shortages, Thus I must agree emphatically curves cross for some interstellar spare part shortages, and so on5, §1. with Robinson that the preparation destination then the starship be- A life-support system on a plane- for interstellar travel will certain- comes technically feasible4, §5. tary scale with huge buffers of air ly require many centuries, while and water must now be miniatur- equally strongly disagreeing with Why not assume that by then ised to function within the walls him as to its ultimate prospects of some kind of warp drive will be of a single artificial structure. success. possible, or that power will be . drawn at will from the quantum The closest attempt so far was The limits to technology vacuum? Firstly, because any pre- the Biosphere 2 project, in which A second major question affect- cise engineering study with such eight volunteers lived for two ing our views on interstellar travel nebulous concepts is impossible, years in a sealed building con- is where the limits to technolog- and any vehicle based on them taining the wherewithal to grow ical capabilities might be found. is little better than pure science all their own food and replenish Will it, for example, be possible to fiction. But secondly, because the all their air and water 6. They did build ships which can travel faster trend at present is not favourable not, however, have any ability to than light at an affordable pow- to such devices. The great strides manufacture replacement cloth- er cost, or are slower-than-light in technology of the past 200 ing or other hardware items. And propulsion systems in conjunction years – steam power, electricity, even their supplies of oxygen and with already known physics for the internal combustion engine, food turned out to be only margin- their energy source the best that the jet engine, the rocket, nuclear ally sufficient, with an occasional can be achieved? power, the information revolution boost necessary from outside. – have all respected certain ab- Clearly, there are diverging views solute theoretical limits: the laws The cost of that project and the on this, and a fundamental rev- of energy conservation and ther- problems encountered show how olution in basic physics could modynamics, the uncrossability much more there is to be done change the way we see interstellar of the speed of light, the quantum before settlers will be ready to travel. But that revolution has not uncertainty principle. live permanently away from Earth happened yet, and until it does, even at a neighbouring location in I think the only intellectually Science has moved into the study, the Solar System, let alone in in- defensible position is to assume not so much of the fundamental terstellar space or in orbit around pro tem that it will not, but at the processes underlying nature, but another star. same time to stay aware of new rather of the behaviour of highly developments in physics and keep complex systems in cosmology, Secondly, given the high cost of an open mind. biology, microbiology, clima- access to space, extraterrestrial tology and planetology. The colonisation will clearly suffer As it happens, magical technol- fundamental physical theories from a bottleneck effect in which ogies (in Clarke’s sense) are not of gravity and quantum electro-
Principium | Issue 13 | May 2016 23 dynamics have resisted unifi- ciency and reliability. Multiple My own conclusion is that the cation. Technological progress human generations have repro- earliest date when we could has hit a curve of diminishing duced in space, and the biological realistically expect a manned progress, with the slow progress and social problems encountered starship to be launched will be at towards controlled nuclear fusion in this most delicate and complex some time in the second half of and large-scale space travel two of processes have been discov- the current millennium, at least obvious indicators of the trend. ered, addressed and solved. 500 years in the future, and more Intelligent machines are not yet plausibly 750 to a thousand years with us, consciousness has not yet There remain issues connected or more5, 7. This is especially so been uploaded, and the medical with the energy and power re- when one considers the bottleneck problems of senile dementia and quired to send a vehicle large effect which will constrain future the wasting illnesses of old age enough to carry a human popula- growth for some centuries after it have not yet been solved. Mean- tion to the stars. These are fun- has topped out on Earth. while the continuing development damental physical considerations, of civilisation on Earth throws independent of the actual technol- The sort of ship I have in mind up new problems of complexity ogies used. A small robotic probe here is a cruiser worldship, thus in society and politics as coun- can escape them by using the one whose accommodation re- tries with incompatible cultures power of sunlight as its propulsion sembles that of a cruise liner or a are thrust together by the pace of system, but this is only possible housing estate on Earth. It would globalisation. because a robot can tolerate the have a zero-propellant mass of high accelerations that would be around a million tonnes, sufficient So all the signs at present are that experienced when unfurling a for perhaps one to two thousand just getting to a fusion-powered light sail close to the Sun. Peo- occupants, and its cruising speed worldship is going to take a major ple require gentler treatment, and of 8000 km/s would carry it to effort over a number of centuries. solar sailing is unable to accel- Alpha Centauri after 170 years of This could change at any time, erate a manned ship to an inter- flight, or to Tau Ceti in 450 years. and we should keep an open mind stellar speed greater than about It is quickly seen that the energy to revolutionary possibilities, but 940 km/s, in Greg Matloff’s latest cost of such a ship would be 200 while fundamental revolutions in design, which takes 1400 years ZJ (one zettajoule = 1021 joules), physics and in managing complex to reach even the closest nearby equivalent to an amount of energy systems are not yet certain we star8. that would maintain our current should be equally on our guard global industrial civilisation for against seductive but ultimately For a vehicle driven by any kind about 400 years. empty hype. of engine or artificial beam, questions arise concerning the Towards an Astra Planeta 2 Energy and power cost of the energy used, and the How might a future generation Assume, however, that the cost of building infrastructure of students at the ISU develop the Solar System has been settled, which can deploy that energy at Astra Planeta worldship in such a that nuclear fusion is a mature sufficient power to accelerate the way as to address these quantita- technology for rocket propulsion vehicle within a reasonable period tive issues? and electrical power supply, that of time. In brief, an assumption mining and manufacturing from that society would devote greater The study shows an artist’s im- primordial materials in a dusty energy and power resources to an pression of the concept design microgravity vacuum is well es- interstellar worldship than it uses (Fig.12 on p.21), consisting of ten tablished, and that rotating space for its own domestic purposes stacked tori for habitation with colonies are spreading outwards is not credible. Given the enor- an engine and propellant tank in to progressively more remote mous values of energy and power the middle. But the all-important locations – the main asteroid belt, required, a civilisation of a certain figures for ship mass, propellant the Jupiter trojans, among the minimum size is required, far mass and exhaust velocity have satellites of the giant planets, the larger than could be maintained not yet been provided. Without at centaurs, the Kuiper belt – coming on Earth alone, thus bringing into least rough estimates of these key progressively closer to worldship play estimates of how fast future variables, an engineer cannot gain performance in their self-suffi- growth might be. any overall feel for what is being
Principium | Issue 13 | May 2016 24 All things considered, for mul- in industrial energy capacity over ti-generational occupation I the next 100 years to reach the would prefer a mass of at least point where a project which con- 500 tonnes per occupant, though sumes 875 ZJ of high-tech fusion a wide range of values have been fuel on a single flight is likely to suggested by other authors9. The be affordable? Is it plausible to extremely slender tori shown in project that economic and techno- the illustration of the completed logical growth will allow a sin- worldship suggest a structure gle engine (or cluster of engines which is inefficient in its use mounted on a single vehicle) to of mass, particularly if passive operate at a power level two to radiation shielding is used, driv- three orders of magnitude greater ing up the mass per person to a than that of the entirety of civili- higher value, and this factor could sation only a century earlier? also be re-examined. But, staying with the per capita figure of 500 At the same time it is also neces- tonnes, the stated minimum pop- sary to ask whether 100 years is discussed, and the validity of the ulation size requires a zero-pro- sufficient to qualify a vehicle for starting assumptions cannot be pellant mass of at least 50 million at least 900 years of multi-gener- assessed. tonnes. ational habitation, plus whatever period of time must be spent at It is stated that some sort of nu- An exhaust velocity of 10,000 the destination before newly built clear fusion (or possibly fission) km/s (the same as the value infrastructure can be completed. rocket propulsion should be used produced by the Daedalus Re- Don’t forget that the occupants (p.24), and a cruising speed in the port10) is mentioned as possible would be using a mode of life region of 0.005 light speed (c) is for nuclear fusion (p.22). Using which has so far only been par- implied (p.53). This speed would this value, a mass ratio of 1.35 tially tested once, by Biosphere 2, fix the journey time to Alpha is required. The propellant load with mixed results. A fourth crit- Centauri at around 900 years, and is then 17.5 million tonnes and ical question would concern the that to Tau Ceti at well over two the energy cost comes out to 875 tools and techniques needed for thousand years, assuming that ZJ, or 1750 times current global mining and manufacturing with acceleration and deceleration were industrial energy production of extraterrestrial resources. Can completed within a small frac- around half a zettajoule. This these be matured to a sufficient tion of the total trip time. A table figure should be increased by level of reliability that the occu- showing journey times to a range whatever inefficiencies occur dur- pants of the Astra Planeta ship of nearby stars would be interest- ing the conversion of the released will be able not only to survive, ing. energy into rocket thrust. but to grow once they reach their destination? A population of at least 100,000 If the main engine fires at low is specified, and their per person thrust for a total period of accel- One may hope that the Astra floor space allowance is discussed eration plus deceleration of, say Planeta report will not be for- in detail (p.11-15). A minimum 100 years, then that engine needs gotten, but used as a basis for mass of 230 × 106 kg is mentioned to have a power of around 300 subsequent studies which address (p.17), but no source for that fig- terawatt (TW); if the total engine questions such as these, and so ure is provided. A future gener- burntime is reduced to around progress the design further to- ation might decide that a mass of a single decade then the power wards greater engineering realism. 2.3 tonnes per occupant would be needs to be up in the petawatts. too small. For comparison, the The current aggregate power of Robinson: agreement and International Space Station – lack- global industrial civilisation on disagreement ing radiation shielding, artificial Earth is around 16 TW. Meanwhile, should one agree gravity or onboard food or spare with Kim Stanley Robinson, or parts production – has a mass of The questions may then be asked: disagree? As I suggested above: over 60 tonnes per person. is it reasonable to expect growth both.
Principium | Issue 13 | May 2016 25 Interstellar travel and colonisation see how far we have come in that from Planet-Based to Space- of other stars is perfectly consist- brief moment of cosmic time. Based Civilisation”, JBIS, 65, p. ent with already known physics, That perspective should reassure 140-154 (2012), available online provided that multi-generation us that, despite the ups and downs (http://www.jbis.org.uk/ ships, travelling at say 1 to 3 per of day-to-day or even dec- paper.php?p=2012.65.140). See cent of the speed of light, are ade-to-decade world events, and Table 1. used, and therefore provided in despite the fashionable pessimism 10. A. Bond, A.R. Martin et al., turn that the mode of living on about the sustainability of our Project Daedalus: The Final such objects has been well worked terrestrial civilisation, long-term Report on the BIS Starship Study, out beforehand by at least several progress is possible and techni- Journal of the British centuries of experience at progres- cally feasible, and should still be Interplanetary Society supple- sively remoter locations in the So- worked towards. ment, 1978. A reprint is available lar System. There will inevitably from the BIS website (http://www. be mistakes and occasional disas- References bis-space.com/eshop/ ters along the way, and time must NB all internet references were products-page/merchandise/ be allowed for these to happen checked at 18 May 2016. books/) under the title: Project and the lessons to be learned. 1. Scientific American blog Daedalus: Demonstrating the En- But there will be time. The en- (http://www.scientificamerican. gineering Feasibility of ergies and power levels required com/ Interstellar Travel. of any manned starship guarantee article/what-will-it-take-for-hu- that interstellar flight will not take mans-to-colonize-the-milky- place until a civilisation several way1/). About the author orders of magnitude larger and 2. 100 Year Starship Stephen Ashworth has been a more powerful than present-day (http://100yss.org/mission/pur- BIS member since the 1980s, and mono-planetary society has aris- pose). associated with i4is since its foun- en. Similarly, spaceflight itself 3. Starship Century (http://www. dation. He has written numerous required a similar degree of pro- starshipcentury.com). articles for Spaceflight magazine gress from the relatively weak and 4. Astra Planeta Final Report, (most recently one on Mars set- primitive civilisations which sent International Space University, tlement in the April 2016 issue), early terrestrial explorers such as 2015, available from the ISU web- and several of his technical papers Zheng He, Columbus and Drake site (https:// have appeared in the Journal of on their way. This starfaring civ- isulibrary.isunet.edu/opac/doc_ the BIS. He is the author of a full- ilisation cannot appear overnight, num.php?explnum_id=731). length science fiction novel, The or in a single century. 5. S. Ashworth, “The Emergence Moonstormers, available online of the Worldship (II): A (www.smashwords.com/books/ That is why I think it is more Development Scenario”, JBIS, 65, view/260248); a novelette, “Half- reasonable to think in terms of a p.155-175 (2012), available way There!”, in the collection Vi- thousand-year starship develop- online (http://www.jbis.org.uk/ sionary, published by the BIS and ment period. paper.php?p=2012.65.155). available on their website; and a Why does this matter? It matters 6. J. Poynter, The Human Experi- short story, “The Marchioness”, because we need a realistic idea of ment: Two Years and Twenty inspired by the recent movie The where our civilisation is headed, Minutes Inside Biosphere 2, 2006; Martian. He blogs at Astronau- of what the future possibilities Basic Books 2009. tical Evolution (www.astronist. are. It matters because we need 7. S. Ashworth, “The Bottleneck co.uk/astro_ev/ae_index.shtml). assurance that the human heritage Effect on Near-Future Growth”, He works in academic publishing can be effectively immortal, if that JBIS, 69, forthcoming 2016. at Oxford University and plays is what we collectively want, and 8. G.L. Matloff, “Graphene Solar jazz saxophone. finally because it places our pres- Photon Sails and Interstellar ent-day concerns on a far vaster Arks”, JBIS, 67, p.237-248, 2014, stage. available online (http://www.jbis. org.uk/paper.php?p=2014.67.237). Looking ahead a thousand years, 9. S. Ashworth, “The Emergence we can look equally far back and of the Worldship (I): The Shift-
Principium | Issue 13 | May 2016 26 The world’s first interstellar academic education Buy journal! issue 2 from lulu.com today!
• Lacking Tools, Information, and Hope: The Results of the First Attempts in Colonization by the Spanish in a New and Strange World: Robert C Lightfoot • The Non-Locality of Parenago’s Discontinuity and Universal Self-Organization: Gregory L Matloff • Prototyping Starships: The Nature of the Interstellar Question: Rachel A Armstrong
NEXT ISSUE
In the next issue our Guest Introduction will be a reflective piece by Paul Gilster of the invaluable Centauri Dreams blog and the Tau Zero Foundation. We will report more from the ISU Masters 2-week elective module for the students of the Masters of Space Studies course at the International Space University, Strasbourg, mentioned in our News this time. We'll also hope to bring you the final chapter of Terry Regan's account of how he built Daedalus and of its unveiling at the BIS 2016 Charterhouse Conference. And more on Starship Engineering from Kelvin Long, with perhaps some of the original drawings from Carl Sagan's Cosmos programmes.
Principium | Issue 13 | May 2016 27 Mission statement The mission of the Initiative for Interstellar Studies is to foster and promote education, knowledge and technical capabilities which lead to designs, technologies or enterprise that will enable the construction and launch of interstellar spacecraft.
Vision statement We aspire towards an optimistic future for humans on Earth and in space. Our bold vision is to be an organisation that is central to catalysing the conditions in society over the next century to enable robotic and human exploration of the frontier beyond our Solar System and to other stars, as part of a long-term enduring strategy and towards a sustainable space- based economy.
Values Statement To demonstrate inspiring leadership and ethical governance, to initiate visionary and bold programmes co-operating with partners inclusively, to be objective in our assessments yet keeping an open mind to alternative solutions, acting with honesty, integrity and scientific rigour.
We'd love to hear from you, our readers, about your thoughts on Principium, the Initiative or interstellar flight in general. Come along to Facebook, Twitter (@I4Interstellar) or LinkedIn to join in the conversation.
Editor: John I Davies Deputy Editor : Kelvin F Long Layout: John I Davies
The Initiative For Interstellar Studies is a pending institute, incorporated in the UK in 2014 as a not- for-profit company limited by guarantee.
Front cover: Enzmann starship "Demesne" envisaged by Alex Storer www.thelightdream.net/art/space/demesne.html Back cover: Wavelengths of commercially available lasers source:commons.wikimedia.org/ wiki/File:Commercial_laser_lines.svg
Principium | Issue 13 | May 2016 i4is.org 28