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Swiss Economy Cantonal Competitiveness Indicator 2019: Update Following the Swiss Tax Reform (STAF)

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Swiss Economy Cantonal Competitiveness Indicator 2019: Update Following the Swiss Tax Reform (STAF) Swiss economy Cantonal Competitiveness Indicator 2019: Update following the Swiss tax reform (STAF) Chief Investment Office GWM | 23 May 2019 3:12 pm BST | Translation: 23 May 2019 Katharina Hofer, Economist, [email protected]; Matthias Holzhey, Economist, [email protected]; Maciej Skoczek, CFA, CAIA, Economist, [email protected] Cantonal Competitiveness Indicator 2019 Following the adoption of the tax reform (STAF) on 19 • 1 ZG 0 = rank change versus previous year 100.0 May 2019, the canton of Zug remains the most competitive 2 BS +1 90.6 canton, as in 2018. Basel-Stadt has overtaken the canton of 3 ZH - 1 90.1 Zurich. 4 VD +3 75.2 5 AG - 1 74.3 • The cantons of Appenzell Innerrhoden and Glarus boast the 6 NW +2 72.4 most attractive cost environments. The canton of Bern has 7 SZ - 2 71.3 lost some of its tax appeal. 8 LU - 2 71.2 9 BL 0 71.1 • The tax reform burdens cantons' finances to different 10 GE +1 69.8 extents. In the near term, the cantons of Geneva and Basel- 11 TG - 1 66.7 Stadt are likely to lose revenue from profit tax. 12 SH 0 66.1 13 FR +1 62.9 14 SG - 1 62.8 Following the approval of tax reforms (STAF) in a recent referendum, 15 OW +3 58.6 cantons now need to make changes to their profits taxes. Although 16 AR +1 57.3 some cantons announced considerable cuts to profit taxes prior to 17 SO - 1 55.8 18 GL +4 55.5 the voting, others were more reluctant. Accordingly, the relative 19 NE +1 55.5 competitiveness of the cantons will change. For this reason, we have 20 TI - 1 54.8 recalculated the UBS Cantonal Competitiveness Indicator (CCI). 21 BE - 6 54.3 22 AI - 1 53.8 Cantonal profit tax cuts change relative competitiveness 23 UR 0 47.9 The canton of Zug again takes first place in the CCI 2019. It leaves 24 GR 0 42.3 the cantons of Basel-Stadt and Zurich well behind in second and 25 VS 0 40.0 third place. Another significant gap separates the three highest- 26 JU 0 36.9 ranking cantons from the other cantons. Nevertheless, we have 50 60 75 90 100 found the canton of Waadt to be highly competitive as well. A group Top (> 90) Moderate (50-60) of 10 cantons has robust growth prospects. These are the cantons of High (75-90) Low (< 50) Nidwalden, Schwyz and Lucerne in central Switzerland, the cantons Solid (60-75) The results are conditional upon the implementation of the plans as of Thurgau and St. Gallen in eastern Switzerland, the cantons of outlined at the cantonal level. Some cantonal implementation plans Geneva and Fribourg in western Switzerland and the cantons of could be or will be subject to cantonal referendums. Source: UBS Aargau, Basel-Landschaft and Schaffhausen. The growth prospects of the small mountainous cantons of Obwalden, Glarus, Appenzell Interpretation and methodology Innerrhoden and Appenzell Ausserrhoden are moderate. The same The CCI provides insight into a canton’s long- applies to the cantons of Solothurn, Neuchâtel, Bern and Ticino. term relative competitiveness. In the long run, The competitiveness of the cantons of Uri, Graubünden, Valais and cantons with a high relative competitiveness Jura is low. are likely to grow more than the Swiss economy Tax reform reshuffles the deck as a whole. By contrast, cantons with a Due to the significant reduction of the cantonal profit tax rate in low relative competitiveness are expected to the canton of Basel-Stadt, this canton has swapped places with undergo below-average growth. To determine the canton of Zurich since CCI 2018. The canton of Glarus, which the CCI, an average is calculated from eight offers a more attractive cost environment than last year, has made thematic pillars for each canton and scaled so the greatest leap forward, improving its ranking by four places. that the highest cantonal score is 100. The cantons of Waadt and Obwalden have each improved by three places. This report has been prepared by UBS Switzerland AG. Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. Swiss economy The canton of Nidwalden has gone up two places. Appenzell Profit tax cut can reduce income Ausserrhoden and the cantons of Geneva, Fribourg and Neuchâtel Change in the tax revenues of legal entities have each improved one place. In some cantons, however, the long- (canton and its communities) in the total revenue, term competitiveness has fallen. Bern canton now has the highest static calculation for 2016, in percent profit tax rate in Switzerland, resulting in a six-place drop in the CCI -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 ranking, after voters in the canton rejected a proposal for imple- NE menting the reform. The canton of Solothurn has dropped one ZG place after the rejection of a cantonal referendum. The cantons SZ LU of Schwyz and Lucerne, which have only reduced the profit tax AR marginally or not at all, have each lost two places. The cantons NW of Aargau, Thurgau, St. Gallen, Ticino and Appenzell Innerrhoden BE have each dropped one place. AG OW Cantonal state finances affected to different extents AI With the abolition of individual tax privileges, all companies are now SO subject to a uniform cantonal rate. Almost all cantons have reduced GR their profit tax rates. Despite this reduction, most status companies UR SH that used to benefit from tax privileges will have to pay more taxes. GL By contrast, companies that used to pay the normal tax rates will VS benefit from the tax reductions. SG TG Initially, the implementation of the tax proposal is likely to dent the ZH finances of a number of cantons. The greater the fall in the profit FR tax rate and the larger the proportion of companies that previously JU paid the normal tax rate (and which will henceforth pay less tax) in TI a canton, the greater the expected encumbrance. In terms of total BL revenue, the canton of Geneva, which has cut its tax rates signifi- VD BS cantly and which has relatively few status companies, is expected to GE suffer the greatest loss of tax revenue. However, part of the loss will Sources: EFV, Hinny, UBS be buffered by the distribution of the a billion francs from federal tax revenue. The situation is different in cantons in which the former status com- Overview of the proposals panies and relatively low pre-reform profit tax rates play a key role. The individual cantons are responsible for In the cantons of Neuchâtel and Zug, for example, where status the implementation of the tax proposal. The companies accounted for more than half of the profit taxes, the most important amendments to the statutory tax reform is likely to result in an effective increase of the tax rate framework conditions are as follows: paid in the canton and thus in higher profit tax revenue. However, • All companies in a canton are to be taxed a factor that affects all cantons is that the introduction of cantonal at the same profit tax rate, and tax privi- patent boxes and deductions for research and development will leges are to be abolished. additionally weigh on revenue, depending on the significance of • The new patent box regime provides that patents in the respective canton. profits from patents are subject to a Long-term effects not yet ascertainable reduced tax rate. Additionally, deductions The changed relative tax attractiveness between the cantons will for research and development can be intro- lead to company relocations. Companies that previously benefited duced. from tax privileges will be tempted to relocate if the cost envi- • Dividends are subject to a higher tax rate. ronment deteriorates too drastically. Additionally, even companies • The share of cantons in the federal tax that used to pay the normal tax rates may reconsider their location. revenue is increased from 17 to 21.2 Switzerland is able to retain its international competitiveness due to percent, which means an amount of about the reduction of many cantonal tax rates. Unless the tax laws in the CHF 1 billion. OECD or the EU change significantly, it will most likely be possible to compensate part of the tax losses by means of company relocations from abroad. 2 Swiss economy The eight pillars of competitiveness The Cantonal Competitiveness Indicator (CCI) comprises 57 individual indicators that provide insight into the cantons’ competitiveness. These individual indicators are grouped into eight competitive pillars: economic structure, innovation, human capital, labor market, ease of access, catchment area, cost environment and state finances. For each compet- itive pillar, cantons are assigned a relative score between 0 and 100. This eight-dimensional view enables a detailed analysis of the relative strengths and weaknesses of a canton’s economy and serves as the basis for strategic decisions concerning a particular region. Economic structure The future growth dynamics of a canton Cantons on a scale of 0 to 100 depend on its economic structure. The most 100 important indicator is our competitiveness and 89 86 85 84 80 market positioning of the various industries. 74 74 73 71 69 68 65 64 60 54 International trade is also included in the can- 48 46 34 33 tonal comparison with growth potential taken 28 25 25 20 19 into consideration based on export intensity 0 (exports as a percentage of economic output) SH BL BS ZH ZG GE SO VD AG TI BE LU NE SG FR TG NW SZ AR JU VS UR GL AI OW GR and the growth prospects of the main trading partners.
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