Lakes Sensitivity to Climatic Stress – a Sociological Assessment
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MISCELLANEA GEOGRAPHICA – RegIONal StuDIeS ON DeVelOpmeNt Vol. 20 • No. 4 • 2016 • pp. 38-47 • ISSN: 2084-6118 • DOI: 10.1515/mgrsd-2016-0025 Lakes sensitivity to climatic stress – a sociological assessment Abstract One of the conditions for effective water resources management in Marta Lackowska1, Barbara Nowicka2,3, protected areas is local decision makers’ knowledge about potential Marta Bałandin2, Mirosław Grochowski4 threats caused by climate changes. Our study, conducted in the uNeSCO Biosphere Reserve of tuchola Forest in poland, analyses the perception 1Department of Local Development and Policy, of threats by local stakeholders. their assessments of the sensitivity of Faculty of Geography and Regional Studies, four lakes to the extreme weather events are compared with hydrological University of Warsaw studies. the survey shows that the lakes’ varying responses to extreme e-mail: [email protected] weather conditions is rarely noticed by ordinary observers. their perception 2Centre for General Hydrological Services, is usually far from the hydrological facts, which indicates a lack of relevant Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – information or a failure in making it widely accessible and understandable. National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB) moreover, it is rather the human impact, not climate change, which is seen e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] as the biggest threat to the lakes. Insufficient environmental knowledge e-mail: [email protected] may hinder the effective protection and management of natural resources, due to bad decisions and lack of the local communities’ support for 3Department of Hydrology, Faculty of Geography and adaptation and mitigation policies. Regional Studies, University of Warsaw e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] Keywords 4 Climate changes • human impact • lake hydrological sensitivity • threats Department of Urban Geography and Spatial Organization, Faculty of Geography and Regional Studies, perception • natural resources management University of Warsaw e-mail: [email protected] Received: 4 February 2016 © university of Warsaw – Faculty of geography and Regional Studies accepted: 2 November 2016 Introduction World reports (IPCC 2007, 2012) analysing future climate past (Lackowska and Swianiewicz 2016; Gendźwiłł 2016). as a result, changes as an effect of global warming, present them as a the perception of unfavourable events becomes an important ”crucial environmental, social and economic problem” (Wpływ factor for appropriate local policies. If the local community is not zmian klimatu… 2012). the expected climate changes will result in convinced of the threat, it may be difficult for local authorities to the intensification of extreme (hazardous) weather events that go justify adaptation and mitigation policies. beyond daily experience (Nowicka 2009); such as heat waves and apart from the perception of past threats, there are also other long periods of atmospheric drought followed by torrential rain factors influencing the effective management of environmental causing floods in other periods. this is expected to negatively issues. One of them is connected with learning (Orderud and influence the quality and quantity of water resources, and not Windsvold 2012). Knowledge about environmental conditions only in areas where there is a water deficit. this is proven by and the possible means for carrying out the mitigation of and the results of studies done on european lakes and carried out adaptation to climate changes is crucial to undertaking action. within research projects like ClIme 2007–2010 (George 2010) and Consequently, providing the various groups of local stakeholders eulaKeS 2010–2013 (Kutics 2012; Nowicka et al. 2012; Soja et al. 2012; with information about the current status of resources and Sighel 2012). threats becomes crucial to motivating them to work towards the effects of climate changes (i.e. the increase of the the protection and sustainable use of natural resources (Grimble number of extreme weather and hydrological events) have an and Wellard 1997; Varvasovszky and Brugha 2000; Reed et al. 2009; influence at the local level, making local governance crucial in Romanelli et al. 2011). Information dissemination should be broad both the mitigation of these changes and in adapting to their local as there is no single group of decision-makers responsible for consequences (Shaw and Theobald 2011; Hoppe et al. 2014). a vast body environmental management (Eckerberg and Joas 2004; Lempert et al. of literature acknowledges and analyses the way in which local 2004): local governance processes (John 2001; Mazur 2015) include communities undertake policies in the face of climate change and a wide range of actors from the public and private sector, as well its impact on localities (Bulkeley and Kern 2006; Granberg and Elander as the civil society sector. the effective flow of information may 2007; Storbjörk 2007; Jackson and Lynch 2011; Shaw and Theobald 2011; influence policy making by changing the approach of stakeholders Hoppe et al. 2014, Szmigiel-Rawska 2016). It has been proved that the to environmental issues in general (Axelrod and Lehman 1993): it willingness to undertake climate policies at the municipal level can contribute to, for example, the choice of specific measures depends on having experienced extreme weather events in the and instruments of policy implementation, and the approval of 38 MISCELLANEA GEOGRAPHICA – RegIONal StuDIeS ON DeVelOpmeNt Vol. 20 • No. 4 • 2016 • pp. 38-47 • ISSN: 2084-6118 • DOI: 10.1515/mgrsd-2016-0025 related restrictions. It also facilitates the democratic legitimization 2. Do the respondents see the relationship between changes of local climate policies. Such policies should be acknowledged in water resources of the lakes and weather conditions? by inhabitants in order to minimize antagonisms, frustrations, 3. Do the respondents differ significantly in relation to the delays and expenditures in the efforts of hazard management above mentioned issues? (Slovic et al. 1982). In this way the development of socially 4. What are the main sources of the respondents’ knowledge? acceptable risk management plans and policies can be achieved (Tierney et al. 2001). the authors have formulated two main propositions. Communication about environmental threats can be used as a the first hypothesis (H1) is that the current low hydrological tool to provide information, to explain and warn, and to encourage sensitivity of a lake causes a poor perception of the risk. this collective partnership approaches to decision-making through in turn can demotivate the community in implementing the greater public participation in the threat management process protective measures and adaptation policies. moreover, the (Calow 1998; Gondo 2011). effective communication is affected by authors assume that despite a general poland-wide information several variables that influence the subjective picture of potential campaign and numerous public documents, climate impact is still environmental threats (perception of threats), such as sources of not being considered by local actors as a factor that influences information (other people, mass media) or knowledge acquired at local conditions (or, more precisely, had not been considered as different stages of education and professional life. the exchange such at the time we conducted our study). therefore we expect, of knowledge is combined with personal experience and previous that (H2) climate changes and their impacts on lakes (in the form observations. of meteorological events) are overlooked by local stakeholders. moreover, many of the meteorological consequences of this assumption is also based on the fact that in the area chosen climate change, such as the long-term effects of meteorological for the study throughout last two decades there has been no impact on the water resources of lakes, are very moderate extreme weather events that could easily be linked to climate and thus difficult to perceive by local users of environmental change in the public perception. meteorological conditions resources. this is very different from the case of severe hazards, subject lakes to a more moderate influence, which is more difficult like hurricanes, floods, and water pollution; which are spectacular to notice and subscribe to the influence of climate change than, and easily visible (Langford et al. 2000; Wong and Zhao 2001; Lindell and for instance, the case of rivers prone to flooding.t his hypothesis Prater 2002; Peacock et al. 2005). has a sub-proposition (H2a), in which the authors assume that the analysis of, and response to, local environment data more educated groups notice the impact of climate on local lakes is not an easy task – climate change is a “wicked problem” more frequently than less educated respondents (in general their (Hanssen et al. 2013) that is associated with great uncertainty. In opinions should be more coherent with hydrological knowledge). this context, the flow of information between scientists and those to verify these hypothesis, the authors have carried out responsible for local governance appears to be particularly research on the local communities and governments’ perception important (Sulzmann et al. 1995; Schröter 2005; EEA 2008; Biesbrӧek et of the state of, and threats to, four ribbon lakes located in the al. 2009; Feldman and Ingram 2009; Johnson and Weaver 2009; Rannow et tuchola Forest Biosphere Reserve in poland. the results of