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December 2010 Transparency for the Global Art Market Since 2004 www.skatepress.com ! ! 575 Broadway, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10012 USA /phone: +1.212.514.6010 /fax: +1.212.514.6037 Skate’s Art Investment Review Monthly Art Investment Ideas from Skate’s Art Market Research December 2010 In This Issue: 1. IntroducOon 2 2. November Sales Prove Strong Art Market Recovery 2 3. Skate’s Top 5000/Top 1000 StasOcal Overview 3 4. November 2010 AucOon Results 4 5. Major Changes in the Ranking of Skate’s Top ArOsts 5 6. Top 20 New Entrants* to Skate’s Top 5000 6 7. December 2010 Sales: Paris in Decline, A Few OpportuniOes 6 8. Skate’s Top 5000 by Period (ERR performance), as of 1-Dec-2010 7 9. Blue Chip ArOsts With the Highest Growth Rate in Skate’s Top 5000 7 10.Top 5 Art Investment Ideas for December 2010 8 Jean-Michel Basquiat 8 Kees van Dongen 12 Fernand Léger 14 11.Other Artworks to Watch in December 2010 16 ChrisOe’s AucOons 16 Sotheby’s AucOons 17 12.Skate’s Art Stocks 18 Copyright © 2010 Skate’s, LLC—All rights reserved Introduc@on please order Skate’s Artwork Background Report by calling +1.212.514.6010) Welcome to the December issue of Skate’s Art • Favorable price and liquidity trends in the market Investment Review. As always, our coverage is focused today, including a steady demand for the arOst’s on the universe of global arOsts (currently 631 arOsts) works over the last 24 months who are represented in Skate’s Top 5000 database of • A track record of posiOve investment returns the world’s most valuable art according to aucOon based on repeat sales of the arOst’s higher value prices. To learn more about Skate’s Top 5000 and the works artworks and arOsts represented, please visit • The aucOon house’s esOmate for the artwork does www.skatepress.com. not significantly exceed the peer group valuaon range based on aucOon price records for In this issue of Skate’s Art Investment Review we focus comparable works on the most important November results, as well as on the major upcoming aucOons held by ChrisOe’s and When looking for art investment recommendaons, Sotheby’s: we also exclude all artworks priced over $20 million, as stasOcally they have virtually no chance of yielding • “Art Impressionniste et Moderne," ChrisOe's, posiOve investment returns for buyers who go above December 2 this price threshold. Skate’s also excludes all artworks • “Art Contemporain, ”ChrisOe's, December 8-9 priced below $100,000, as investable art requires • “Impressionist & Modern Art,” Sotheby’s, significant due diligence and ownership expenses, and December 8 it is not economically feasible to conduct relavely • “Contemporary Art,” Sotheby’s, December 7 expensive research and administraon for lower- valued works. Our recommendaons are focused on Our top five investment picks for upcoming aucOons works of art that have a strong chance of yielding are listed below. They have been chosen on the basis annual returns (aer aucon commissions are of the following criteria: accounted for, but before ownership costs and taxes) in excess of the threshold weighted average effecOve • ArOsts are classified by Skate’s as “Blue chip,” rate of return (ERR), which is calculated from a which means that they have both outstanding sampling of Skate’s Top 5000 repeat sales (for details liquidity (i.e., more than 20 works included in of this sampling, please visit www.skatepress.com). Skate’s Top 5000) and significant market capitalizaon (i.e., a combined market value of As of December 1, 2010, the Skate’s Top 5000 more than $100 million for works included in weighted average ERR benchmark stands at 4.24% per Skate’s Top 5000) annum (in USD terms). • The artwork has an investment rang equal to or greater than BB- (for detailed investment reports * * * on any of the artworks covered in this newsleper, November Sales Prove Strong Art of arOsts represented in Skate’s Top 5000) shrank from 636 to 631, which confirms the trend of high-end art Market Recovery investors pung their money into well established names (arOsts) who have a significant track record of By any measure the top end of the global art market public sales. It is no wonder, then, that this fall Skate’s is blossoming. The apparent inflow of new capital registered a record 40 repeat sales in the Top 5000 remains focused on more established names and is market segment. Only four of these repeat sales especially concentrated in the Impressionist and brought negave returns. Art buyers are therefore Modern segment. clearly prepared to overpay for works that come to the market as repeat sales -- the weighted average This fall the index of market breadth (i.e., the number effecOve rate of return (ERR) for the repeat sales in 2 Copyright © 2010 Skate’s Art Market Research—All rights reserved Skate’s Top 5000 this fall was 5.62% on an annualized Strong performance for Warhol’s art and staggering basis, significantly higher than the average ERR prices paid for Lichtenstein and Rothko pieces at the of 4.24% for all such transacOons within Skate’s Top November aucOons may suggest that capital inflows to 5000. the global art market are finally liqing ships in the post-war department. This is true, however, only for The aucOon season this fall confirmed the fact that the select works of high emoOonal value, as well as for art market is clearly emerging as a strong alternave names with a broad and liquid market (Warhol and investment market with Skate’s Top 5000 alone Richter would be major examples). The higher end absorbing about $700 million in net capital inflows for market for post-war art remains fragile and thins the 3-month period against the backdrop of currency considerably as we move closer toward contemporary fluctuaons, European Union woes and overall global works. The two negaOve returns recorded on economic uncertainty. Lichtenstein and de Kooning sales in November, as well as the numerous unsold works during While there were many eye-catching sales in contemporary art aucOons, are visible red flags that November (see below for a list of the top 20 new art buyers should be very selecOve when invesOng in entrants to Skate’s Top 5000 in November), our arOst late 20th century works and should specifically set of the month is Andy Warhol. As investment products, modest reserve prices to avoid overpaying during Warhol’s works stand out for their liquidity, market aucon room frenzy and, consequently, facing breadth and actual returns. Currently the third most negave returns upon eventual resale of their assets. valuable arOst on Skate’s list, Warhol’s market At the same Ome, there is a strong payoff for clear risk capitalizaon (within the Top 5000 sampling alone) takers who are focused on postmodern art, as seen in stands at over $1.2 billion. Sixteen Warhol works were the table further in this report. Works created sold at aucOon in November alone and effecOve rates between 1971 and the present are yielding by far the of return were consistently in posive territory, highest returns to investors with an average 24.7% including on two works (Guns and Brillo box (3 cents annualized return for the period. off)) with annualized ERRs exceeding 30%. * * * Skate’s Top 5000/Top 1000 Stascal Overview Skate’s Top 5000 As of 1-Dec-2010 As of 1-Sep-2010 Market capitalizaon (USD) 27,312,944,013 26,594,158,280 Average price per work (USD) 5,462,589 5,318,832 Threshold price 1,817,500 1,762,500 Index of market breadth (ar.sts) 631 636 Index of market depth 0.123 0.101 Index of repeat sales 0.127 0.119 Weighted average effec.ve rate 4.24 4.16 of return (ERR),% Source: Skate’s Art Market Research 3 Copyright © 2010 Skate’s Art Market Research—All rights reserved Skate’s Top 1000 Source: Skate’s Art Market Research November 2010 Auc@on Results Ar@sts With the Largest Sales Volume in November Rank in Total Value of Works Sold Average Price of Skate’s Average Price of Number of Works Skate’s Ar@st in November in Skate’s Top 5000 (Works Sold in Works in Skate’s Sold in November Top 5000 Top 5000, USD November) Top 5000 9 Amedeo Modigliani 88,085,000 44,042,500 10,455,500 2 6 Henri Masse 80,858,000 20,214,500 7,924,030 4 12 Mark Rothko 32,085,000 16,042,500 10,163,800 2 17 Gerhard Richter 41,826,000 10,456,500 4,421,920 4 3 Andy Warhol 177,384,000 9,634,063 5,681,300 16 19 Roy Lichtenstein 85,358,500 9,484,278 5,030,020 9 7 Jeff Koons 22,759,500 7,586,500 4,553,020 3 14 Fernand Léger 25,194,000 6,298,500 5,948,430 4 22 Jean-Michel Basquiat 23,682,000 5,920,500 4,467,510 4 15 Claude Monet 41,207,000 5,886,714 7,726,680 6 Source: Skate’s Art Market Research Best ERR Records Based on Top 5 November Repeat Sales Low High Repeat Sale Ini@al Purchase Repeat Sale Repeat Sale Purchase Rank Ar@st Title Esmate, Esmate, Purchase Price, Price, USD ERR Date USD USD USD Portrait of Giovanni Boldini 1,000,000 1,500,000 6,578,500 27.00% 1,352,500 26-Oct-2004 958 Giovineaa Errazuriz 416 Gerhard Richter Abstraktes Bild 5,500,000 7,500,000 11,282,500 45.58% 1,248,000 11-May-2005 2146 Christopher Wool Un.tled (W 24) 2,000,000 3,000,000 3,666,500 26.85% 1,080,000 9-May-2006 1669 Andy Warhol Guns 1,800,000 2,200,000 4,450,500 30.77% 118,000 19-Nov-1997 Brillo box (3 cents Andy Warhol 600,000 800,000 3,050,500 31.35% 43,700 15-Nov-1995 2735 off) Source: Skate’s Art Market Research 4 Copyright © 2010 Skate’s Art Market Research—All rights reserved Worst ERR Records Based on November Sales High Repeat Sale Repeat Sale Low Esmate, Purchase Repeat Sale, Rank Ar@st Title Esmate, Inial Purchase Purchase USD Price, USD ERR USD Price, USD Date Danseuse dans le 166 Henri Masse 12,000,000 18,000,000
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