Climate Change Scenario Planning: A Tool for Managing Resources in an Era of Uncertainty
Leigh Welling Climate Change Coordinator National Park Service Natural Resource Stewardship & Science
Mount Rainier NP, 2006
Bandelier National Monument, OctoberMay 2004 2002 Alternative Approaches for Adaptation Planning
Figure from Peterson et al. Conservation Biology Volume 17, No. 2, April 2003 What are Scenarios?
Scenarios Are: • A tool for long-term strategic planning • Compelling narratives of alternative environments in which decisions may be played out • Coherent, internally consistent, and plausible
Scenarios Are Not: • Predictions or Forecasts • A method for arriving at the “most likely” future Scenario Planning Goal: Challenge assumptions and foster strategic thinking about possible responses to different futures
“A scenario is a coherent, internally consistent and plausible description of a possible future state of the world. It is not a forecast; rather, each scenario is one alternative image of how the future can unfold.” - IPCC, 2006 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report May 2007 Scenario Planning: An Integration of Science and Management
Identify the Analyze List External Build & Test Policy Context or Internal Drivers Scenarios Screening Focal Question Dynamics
Decision makers, Decision Scientists, topical scientists, topical experts makers experts
Types of Scenarios Æ different purposes
Strategic Æ testing concepts and models Exploratory Æ moving into the future, e.g., by extending past trends, considering contingencies Anticipatory Æ aiming toward preferred futures – and avoiding ‘nightmares’ Slide adapted from Holly Hartmann, University of Arizona Steps to Scenario Planning
Identify the Context
• What is the focal issue? Æintersection of knowable/unknowable and controllable/ uncontrollable – What will the park landscape look like in 50 years? – What actions can managers take to protect resources?
List External Drivers
• What are key uncertainties? Æ focus on those with large impact on focal issue: 2-3 critical themes Æ consider views of principal actors – How will timing and amount of precipitation change? – What will funding and public support look like? Steps to Scenario Planning
Analyze Internal Dynamics
• What are the impacts to changes in external drivers? Æfocus on indicator variables and how they interact with one another – What park resources are most sensitive to change? – Are there cascading effects or thresholds responses to beware of?
Build and Test Scenarios
• What are primary storylines that capture the range of plausible futures? Æ link external forces/internal dynamics/indicators Æ link past/present/future Æ focus on expanding thinking about current system Lets look at an example process 4 Quad Scenario Processes Respond Rapidly Framework
“Lots” of Luck Scenario “Get with it” Scenario 1.Scenario Details 1. Scenario Details 2. 3. 2. . 3. . . n . n Processes Governance and Policy Actions Aggressive Policy Action Policy Action Weak to Little Weak to
“Well just Delay” Scenario Easy Street Scenario 1. Scenario Details 1. Scenario Details 2. 2. 3. 3. . . . . n n
Socio-Environmental Slide from Bob Corell, H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics, and the Processes Respond very Slowly Environment Steps to Scenario Planning
Scenario Testing
Æ Test for internal consistency Æ Assess plausibility: including human response Æ Identify strengths, weaknesses
Policy Screening / Planning
Æ Test, analyze scenarios with respect to existing and potential policies Æ Do some policies work under all scenarios? Æ Do some policies lead to ‘traps’ or ‘dead ends’? Traps in Scenario Planning
• Anchoring to details of a specific scenario
Æ important to focus on patterns (trends, thresholds, cascading events) rather than forecast values • Keep in mind models can be too cautious as well as too extreme (e.g. sea level rise estimates)
• Scenarios as ‘intensification of the present’ An Adaptation Plan
Craft and Implement Cascade Long-Range Plan Controlling Projections Tease out Key Projections with Multi- Stresses 4 Quad Scenarios Track
Develop Scenarios Key Tracking Indicators and Evaluate Progress Downscale Progress Downscale Key Parameters at needed scales Set Time Scale
Set the Time Scales
Frame the
Frame the Context and Scale (park, ecosystem, etc) Problem Slide from Bob Corell, H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics, and the Environment 31 Climate Change Scenario Planning Workshop: Joshua Tree National Park Nov 13-14, 2007 Building and Testing
High precipitation events
When it Rains Summer Soaker it Pours Winter Spring / summer
Dune
Low precipitation Joshua Tree National Park Workshop: Æ 3 Scenarios “Summer Soaker” Current Mojave Desert: > 900 meters in elevation “Summer Soaker” Plausible future Mojave Desert: > 1100 meters in elevation “Summer Soaker” Expansion of Sonoran ecosystem “Summer Soaker” Potential loss of “transitional” environments “When it rains, it pours” Fires, 1967-2006: Approx. 40,000 acres burned “When it rains, it pours” Plausible future fires: Approx. 600,000 acres burned “When it rains, it pours” Extensive conversion to non-native grasses “Dune” Persistent and extensive drought; loss of woody species “Dune” Increased erosion; loss of vegetative cover; dune formation Common Themes & Potential Management Actions • Loss of Mojave Desert species and expansion of Sonoran: – For high priority species such as the Joshua Tree, park managers may consider relocation to higher elevations to assist in their survival – Other actions might include research on hybrids; strengthening seed banks and nurseries to support future restoration
• Increased size and severity of wildland fire: – Exploring different options for fire breaks on the landscape
• Invasion of non-native plants: – Prioritize increased funding to support staff efforts preventing spread of non-native species, esp grasses One Dimensional vs Scenario Planning
One-Dimensional Outcomes Planning A B C D
Scenario Possible Futures Planning Elements A Elements Common to A-B Elements Common to A-C B Common to A-D C D
Slide adapted from Tucson water plan, 2007 The real value of scenario planning may be in the process
• Kleiner (1999) describes scenario-building exercises as “conversations designed to help a group of people trick themselves to see past their own blind spots”.
• For conservation, major benefits are (1) increased understanding of key uncertainties (2) incorporation of alternative perspectives into planning, and (3) improved capacity for adaptive management.