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ADAPTATION of FORESTS and PEOPLE to CLIMATE Change – a Global Assessment Report

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International Union of Forest Research Organizations Union Internationale des Instituts de Recherches Forestières Internationaler Verband Forstlicher Forschungsanstalten Unión Internacional de Organizaciones de Investigación Forestal IUFRO World Series Vol. 22 ADAPTATION OF FORESTS AND PEOPLE TO CLIMATE CHANGE – A Global Assessment Report Prepared by the Global Forest Expert Panel on Adaptation of Forests to Climate Change Editors: Risto Seppälä, Panel Chair Alexander Buck, GFEP Coordinator Pia Katila, Content Editor This publication has received funding from the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, the United Kingdom´s Department for International Development, the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, and the United States Forest Service. The views expressed within this publication do not necessarily reflect official policy of the governments represented by these institutions. Publisher: International Union of Forest Research Organizations (IUFRO) Recommended catalogue entry: Risto Seppälä, Alexander Buck and Pia Katila. (eds.). 2009. Adaptation of Forests and People to Climate Change. A Global Assessment Report. IUFRO World Series Volume 22. Helsinki. 224 p. ISBN 978-3-901347-80-1 ISSN 1016-3263 Published by: International Union of Forest Research Organizations (IUFRO) Available from: IUFRO Headquarters Secretariat c/o Mariabrunn (BFW) Hauptstrasse 7 1140 Vienna Austria Tel: + 43-1-8770151 Fax: + 43-1-8770151-50 E-mail: [email protected] Web site: www.iufro.org/ Cover photographs: Matti Nummelin, John Parrotta and Erkki Oksanen Printed in Finland by Esa-Print Oy, Tampere, 2009 Preface his book is the first product of the Collabora- written so that they can be read independently from Ttive Partnership on Forests’ Global Forest Expert each other. As a result, a certain level of repetition Panels (GFEP) initiative. GFEP is a new mechanism may occur. Conclusions from individual chapters are for providing objective and independent scientific presented at the end of chapters. assessments of key forest-related issues to support Based on the main findings of the assessment, international processes and decision-making at the a policy brief titled “Making forests fit for climate global level. It is led and coordinated by the Inter- change – A global view of climate-change impacts national Union of Forest Research Organizations on forests and people and options for adaptation” (IUFRO). has been prepared especially for policy and deci- Policy makers recommended making adaptation sion makers. of forests to climate change the subject of the first Given the wide scope of the topic adaptation and scientific assessment. Accordingly, an Expert Panel the very limited time available for the assessment, on Adaptation of Forests to Climate Change was our book cannot cover every issue related to the ad- formed by the GFEP Steering Committee in late aptation of forests and people to climate change. The 2007 to carry out this assessment. This Expert Panel assessment also reveals that there are still major gaps consists of 35 scientists and experts from different in knowledge about the impacts of climate change on forest-related disciplines and different parts of the forests and people and about how adaptation actions world. About the same number of scientists contrib- can best be tailored to local conditions. Nevertheless, uted to the assessment as reviewers. The results of it is my sincere hope that this book will contribute to their voluntary collaboration between February 2008 the discussion on and development of effective ad- and February 2009 are presented in the eight chapters aptation strategies while at the same time providing of this book. The chapters have been prepared by a robust basis for further research on the adaptation Coordinating Lead Authors with teams of Lead Au- of forests and people to climate change. thors and Contributing Authors. They are based on This book is dedicated to one of our Lead Au- a common conceptual framework and follow a logi- thors, our friend and colleague David Karnosky who cal sequence. Nevertheless, the chapters have been deceased in October 2008. Risto Seppälä Chair of the Expert Panel on Adaptation of Forests to Climate Change Acknowledgements Outi Bergäll, Trevor H. Booth, Susan Braatz, Talaat Dafalla, Craig Loehle, Nico Marcar, Johnson Nkem, Kevin Percy, Carmenza Robledo, Bob Scholes, Chris This publication is the product of the work of the Swanston and Dmitry Zamolodchikov (contributing many scientists and experts who acted as authors in authors). Without their voluntary commitment and different capacities. We would like to express our sin- outstanding efforts this publication could not have cere gratitude to all of them: Andreas Fischlin, Peter been prepared. Glück, John Innes, Bastiaan Louman, Alan Lucier, We wish to acknowledge and sincerely also Balgis Osman-Elasha and John Parrotta (coordinat- thank all reviewers of the full report and the various ing lead authors); Neil Adger, Matthew Ayres, Maria chapters whose comments have greatly improved Brockhaus, Carol J. Pierce Colfer, Linda A. Joyce, the quality of this publication: Outi Berghäll, José David Karnosky, Seppo Kellomäki, Aynslie Ogden, Joaquim Campos, Timothy Carter, F. Stuart (Terry) 3 Chin Ong, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Jeremy Rayner, Chapin III, Thomas Downing, Bryan Finnegan, Geoff Roberts, Heru Santoso, Brent Sohngen, Ian Claudio Forner, Abdall Gaafar, Manuel Guariguata, Thompson and Anita Wreford (lead authors); and Michael Gytarksy, Hubert Hasenauer, Mark John- ADAPTATION OF FORESTS AND PEOPLE TO CLIMATE CHANGE PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ston, David Kaimowitz, Rod Keenan, Reto Knutti, the United Nations (FAO), the World Agroforestry Horst Korn, Max Krott, Gunnar Köhlin, Bo Larsen, Centre (ICRAF), the Secretariat of the Convention Rodel D. Lasco, Bruno Locatelli, Tomas Lundmark, on Biological Diversity (CBD), and the Secretariat Duncan Mcqueen, Gerardo Mery, Gert Jan Nabuurs, of the United Nations Forum on Forests (UNFF). Madelene Ostwald, Jean-Luc Peyron, Greg Reams, Our special thanks go to the IUFRO Secretariat Steven W. Running, Allen Solomon, Charlotte St- and the Finnish Forest Research Institute (Metla) for reck, Ilpo Tikkanen, Göran Wallin and Catherine providing outstanding and indispensable support to (Kadi) Warner the work of the Panel, including human resources and We gratefully also acknowledge the generous other forms of in-kind contributions. We are particu- financial support provided by the Ministry for For- larly grateful also to the Tropical Agricultural Re- eign Affairs of Finland, the Swedish International search and Higher Education Center (CATIE), FAO Development Cooperation Agency, the United and the UNFF Secretariat which hosted meetings of Kingdom's Department for International Develop- the Expert Panel to prepare this publication. ment, the German Federal Ministry for Economic We also thank the Secretariat of the Intergov- Cooperation and Development, the Swiss Agency ernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for its for Development and Cooperation, and the United valuable advice for our assessment. States Forest Service. Our particular gratitude goes to Seppo Oja for de- Furthermore, we would like to thank the GFEP signing and preparing the layout of this publication. Steering Committee for providing overall guidance Furthermore, we thank Anthony Lambert, Alastair and generous in-kind support: the International Sarre and Gerda Wolfrum for language editing. Fi- Union of Forest Research Organizations (IUFRO), nally, we would like to express our gratitude to all the Center for International Forestry Research (CI- other people and organizations who have contributed FOR), the Food and Agriculture Organization of to this publication in one way or the other. The editors: Risto Seppälä, Alexander Buck and Pia Katila March 2009 4 ADAPTATION OF FORESTS AND PEOPLE TO CLIMATE CHANGE Contents Executive summary and key messages . 9 INTRODUCTION 1 Forest ecosystem services: a cornerstone for human well-being . 15 Coordinating lead author: Bastiaan Louman Lead authors: Andreas Fischlin, Peter Glück, John Innes, Alan Lucier, John Parrotta, Heru Santoso, Ian Thompson and Anita Wreford ANALYSIS OF PAST AND FUTURE IMPACTS AND VULNERABILITIES 2 Forest responses and vulnerabilities to recent climate change . 29 Coordinating lead author: Alan Lucier Lead authors: Matthew Ayres, David Karnosky and Ian Thompson Contributing authors: Craig Loehle, Kevin Percy and Brent Sohngen 3 Future environmental impacts and vulnerabilities . 53 Coordinating lead author: Andreas Fischlin Lead authors: Matthew Ayres, David Karnosky, Seppo Kellomäki, Bastiaan Louman, Chin Ong, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Heru Santoso and Ian Thompson Contributing authors: Trevor H. Booth, Nico Marcar, Bob Scholes, Chris Swanston and Dmitry Zamolodchikov 4 Future socio-economic impacts and vulnerabilities . 101 Coordinating lead authors: Balgis Osman-Elasha and John Parrotta Lead authors: Neil Adger, Maria Brockhaus, Carol J. Pierce Colfer and Brent Sohngen Contributing authors: Talaat Dafalla, Linda A. Joyce, Johnson Nkem and Carmenza Robledo ADAPTATION OPTIONS 5 Current adaptation measures and policies . 123 Lead author: Geoff Roberts Contributing authors: John Parrotta and Anita Wreford 6 Management for adaptation . 135 Coordinating lead author: John Innes Lead authors: Linda A. Joyce, Seppo Kellomäki, Bastiaan Louman, Aynslie
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