Climate: Opportunities for Improving Engagement Between NOAA and the US National Security Community Rachael Jonassen and Jeremey Alcorn Climate: Opportunities for Improving Engagement Between NOAA and the US National Security Community Rachael Jonassen and Jeremey Alcorn Copyright 2012 by LMI All rights reserved. Published by LMI, which is a 501(c)(3) not-for-profit corporation. This publication advances LMI’s not-for-profit purpose and mission. The views, opinions, and findings contained in this book are those of LMI and should not be construed as an official agency position, policy, or decision, unless so designated by other of- ficial doumentation. No part of this book may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. 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Table of Contents Table of Contents Acknowledgments iv Executive Summary 1 Introduction 3 Overview of Meeting Results 5 Theme 1—Prepare and Respond to Climate Variability and Adapt to Climate Change 11 Theme 2—Develop Climate Change Predictions Endorsed by the Federal Government 17 Theme 3—Support National Security with NOAA Climate Products 23 Theme 4—Move from Data Access to Data Application 29 Theme 5—Sustain Cooperation 33 Theme 6—Consider Emerging Product Areas 37 Long-range forecasts of permafrost active layer thickness 37 Long-range tidal extreme forecasts 41 Glossary 47 Appendix A—Reviewers 49 Appendix B—Biographies 51 © LMI 2012 iii Opportunities to Expand NOAA Support for US National Security Acknowledgments The authors gratefully acknowledge the invitation from the NOAA Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services to participate in CPASW 2012 and to prepare this report. In particular, we thank Dr. Marina Timofeyeva for organizing the meeting and for continual engagement over the past 18 months as the themes emerged and ideas were developed. We thank Dr. Fiona Horsfall, Division Chief of the Climate Services Division, for her strong leadership of the meeting, and we thank Dr. David Caldwell, Director of the Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services for comments that improved this report. Ms. Jenna Meyers at NOAA coordinated many aspects of the meeting and report formulation. Various members of the CPASW organizing committee shaped the program and influenced the final product. John White of the US Army Special Operations Command provided continuous and important guidance throughout the effort. His insights into the requirements of the military influenced the whole report. Comments and insights from Dr. Tom Murphree of the US Navy Post- graduate School in Monterey and Dr. Caitlin Simpson of NOAA’s Climate Program Office influenced the organization and improved the success of CPASW 2012. Dr. David Letson served as host. Conversations with many experts on national defense and climate during and after the workshop clarified issues and focused our attention on the six themes presented here. Dr. Mark Miller of the US Public Health Service (on assignment to the EPA), Mr. Jonathan Herz, and Capt. Ed Pfister of the Department of Health and Human Services provided useful guidance on the role of the public health community. Mr. Paul McCrone of the US Navy Postgraduate School discussed security issues for large data sets. Dr. Adam Parris and Dr. Preston Leftwich pointed us to useful resource material. Ms. Kathy Myers designed this document, and Mr. Dennis Dombkowski edited it. The LMI Research Institute (LRI) supported development of the text under an internal Independent Research and Development grant. We thank Mr. Taylor Wilkerson, Director of LRI, for this help. We also thank the University of Miami for financial support for editing, layout, and printing. iv © LMI 2012 Executive Summary Executive Summary use of NOAA products outside the United States. Six themes emerge from a workshop that dis- New software, new media, and new hardware cussed potential new climate products and ser- offer opportunities for NOAA to develop better vices from the National Oceanic and Atmospher- ways to access data that would nurture greater ic Administration (NOAA) that could serve needs use. Users also need tools (“apps”) for deep- in the national security community. These er and more efficient analysis of existing data. themes are the following: Theme 4 shows how NOAA could partner with the national security community to address 1. Prepare and respond to climate variability both of these opportunities. and adapt to climate change. 2. Develop climate change predictions en- Effective use of the climate products and ser- dorsed by the federal government. vices NOAA now provides can be enhanced through a program that facilitates more produc- 3. Support national security with NOAA cli- tive interaction with the national security com- mate products. munity. Such interaction can identify, develop, 4. Move from data access to data application. and apply useful products and ser- 5. Sustain cooperation. vices. Theme 5 lays the groundwork Effective use of the cli- for effective partnership dealing with mate products and ser- 6. Consider emerging product areas. the long-term challenges that climate vices NOAA now pro- The first theme addresses published statements change poses to US national security. that imply adaptation to climate variability will vides can be enhanced Theme 6 describes several opportu- help to adapt to climate change. This is not al- through a program nities for early focus. Two are ripe for ways true. A counterexample is coastal adapta- that facilitates more early action. First, NOAA could use tion now in an area that a rising sea level will the existing official long-term fore- productive interaction inundate soon. Greater clarity can help ensure cast to develop predictions of active with the national secu- appropriate allocation of adaptation resources. layer thickness in permafrost with- This issue is important to the national defense rity community. in Alaska. This information can help community both because of its large investment protect energy supplies and improve planning in infrastructure and possible compromise of for military mobility in Arctic regions. Second, continuity of operations. NOAA could work in cooperation with the Naval The second theme responds to the lack of any Oceanographic Office to calculate estimates of official federal statement of what projected cli- tidal range with higher sea level. Such informa- mate changes agencies are obliged to consider tion informs the vulnerability of coastal military in adaptation plans. Such plans are required by installations. laws and regulations that do not stipulate which These six opportunities could allow NOAA to potential changes to consider. This disconnect better serve the needs of the country and could compromise national security planning. NOAA’s mission to “understand and predict NOAA produces an official forecast of climate changes in climate.” Together, they could help for the United States that extends to 1 year in the national security community respond to the future. Forecasts are available from NOAA challenges from climate variability and climate international desks for areas outside the United change. States. Theme 3 proposes a dialogue on greater © LMI 2012 1 Opportunities to Expand NOAA Support for US National Security 2 © LMI 2012 Introduction Introduction provide context and a sense of how fully ideas could be vetted and critiqued within the meeting The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminis- and by participants as this document evolved. tration (NOAA) sponsors an annual Climate Pre- All participants were given the opportunity to diction Applications Science Workshop (CPASW) comment on an early draft of the six key themes that brings together climate information us- included here and multiple NOAA scientists re- ers, tool developers, researchers, and provid- viewed an early draft of the full report itself. ers. These meetings identify state-of the-art use These recommendations do not represent the of climate information and gaps in services. The official position of any federal agency and in no overall goals of CPASW are to build a communi- way commit any federal agency to act upon the ty of climate practitioners, discover user needs, ideas presented. assess impacts of climate forecasts on environ- mental-societal interactions, identify the science Intended Audience potential for meeting these needs, and provide As intended in this report, the national security feedback to producers on the usability of existing community includes the 17 intelligence agen- climate products. cies that either operate independently or within The 10th annual CPASW convened in Miami, FL, other federal organizations; those that direct in- on March 13–15, 2012, and featured broad dis- stallation and operational planning within the cussions revolving around the integrated theme military services of the Department of Defense of “Climate Services for National Security Chal- (DoD: Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps); lenges.” The workshop highlighted national and international diplomacy agencies, including the global uses of data and outlooks from seasonal Department of State, the Agency for Interna- to decadal scales in applications