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Climate Change and Human Health: Risks and Responses
Climate change and human health RISKS AND RESPONSES Editors A.J. McMichael The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia D.H. Campbell-Lendrum London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom C.F. Corvalán World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland K.L. Ebi World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe, European Centre for Environment and Health, Rome, Italy A.K. Githeko Kenya Medical Research Institute, Kisumu, Kenya J.D. Scheraga US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA A. Woodward University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION GENEVA 2003 WHO Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data Climate change and human health : risks and responses / editors : A. J. McMichael . [et al.] 1.Climate 2.Greenhouse effect 3.Natural disasters 4.Disease transmission 5.Ultraviolet rays—adverse effects 6.Risk assessment I.McMichael, Anthony J. ISBN 92 4 156248 X (NLM classification: WA 30) ©World Health Organization 2003 All rights reserved. Publications of the World Health Organization can be obtained from Marketing and Dis- semination, World Health Organization, 20 Avenue Appia, 1211 Geneva 27, Switzerland (tel: +41 22 791 2476; fax: +41 22 791 4857; email: [email protected]). Requests for permission to reproduce or translate WHO publications—whether for sale or for noncommercial distribution—should be addressed to Publications, at the above address (fax: +41 22 791 4806; email: [email protected]). The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Health Organization concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. -
Developing and Applying Scenarios
3 Developing and Applying Scenarios TIMOTHY R. CARTER (FINLAND) AND EMILIO L. LA ROVERE (BRAZIL) Lead Authors: R.N. Jones (Australia), R. Leemans (The Netherlands), L.O. Mearns (USA), N. Nakicenovic (Austria), A.B. Pittock (Australia), S.M. Semenov (Russian Federation), J. Skea (UK) Contributing Authors: S. Gromov (Russian Federation), A.J. Jordan (UK), S.R. Khan (Pakistan), A. Koukhta (Russian Federation), I. Lorenzoni (UK), M. Posch (The Netherlands), A.V. Tsyban (Russian Federation), A. Velichko (Russian Federation), N. Zeng (USA) Review Editors: Shreekant Gupta (India) and M. Hulme (UK) CONTENTS Executive Summary 14 7 3. 6 . Sea-Level Rise Scenarios 17 0 3. 6 . 1 . Pu r p o s e 17 0 3. 1 . Definitions and Role of Scenarios 14 9 3. 6 . 2 . Baseline Conditions 17 0 3. 1 . 1 . In t r o d u c t i o n 14 9 3. 6 . 3 . Global Average Sea-Level Rise 17 0 3. 1 . 2 . Function of Scenarios in 3. 6 . 4 . Regional Sea-Level Rise 17 0 Impact and Adaptation As s e s s m e n t 14 9 3. 6 . 5 . Scenarios that Incorporate Var i a b i l i t y 17 1 3. 1 . 3 . Approaches to Scenario Development 3. 6 . 6 . Application of Scenarios 17 1 and Ap p l i c a t i o n 15 0 3. 1 . 4 . What Changes are being Considered? 15 0 3. 7 . Re p r esenting Interactions in Scenarios and Ensuring Consistency 17 1 3. 2 . Socioeconomic Scenarios 15 1 3. -
A Review of Climate Change Scenarios and Preliminary Rainfall Trend Analysis in the Oum Er Rbia Basin, Morocco
WORKING PAPER 110 A Review of Climate Drought Series: Paper 8 Change Scenarios and Preliminary Rainfall Trend Analysis in the Oum Er Rbia Basin, Morocco Anne Chaponniere and Vladimir Smakhtin Postal Address P O Box 2075 Colombo Sri Lanka Location 127, Sunil Mawatha Pelawatta Battaramulla Sri Lanka Telephone +94-11 2787404 Fax +94-11 2786854 E-mail [email protected] Website http://www.iwmi.org SM International International Water Management IWMI isaFuture Harvest Center Water Management Institute supportedby the CGIAR ISBN: 92-9090-635-9 Institute ISBN: 978-92-9090-635-9 Working Paper 110 Drought Series: Paper 8 A Review of Climate Change Scenarios and Preliminary Rainfall Trend Analysis in the Oum Er Rbia Basin, Morocco Anne Chaponniere and Vladimir Smakhtin International Water Management Institute IWMI receives its principal funding from 58 governments, private foundations and international and regional organizations known as the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). Support is also given by the Governments of Ghana, Pakistan, South Africa, Sri Lanka and Thailand. The authors: Anne Chaponniere is a Post Doctoral Fellow in Hydrology and Water Resources at IWMI Sub-regional office for West Africa (Accra, Ghana). Vladimir Smakhtin is a Principal Hydrologist at IWMI Headquarters in Colombo, Sri Lanka. Acknowledgments: The study was supported from IWMI core funds. The paper was reviewed by Dr Hugh Turral (IWMI, Colombo). Chaponniere, A.; Smakhtin, V. 2006. A review of climate change scenarios and preliminary rainfall trend analysis in the Oum er Rbia Basin, Morocco. Working Paper 110 (Drought Series: Paper 8) Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute (IWMI). -
(Highresmip V1.0) for CMIP6
High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6 1 2 3 5 Reindert J. Haarsma , Malcolm Roberts , Pier Luigi Vidale , Catherine A. Senior2, Alessio Bellucci4, Qing Bao5, Ping Chang6, Susanna Corti7, Neven S. Fučkar8, Virginie Guemas8, Jost von Hardenberg7, Wilco Hazeleger1,9,10, Chihiro Kodama11, Torben Koenigk12, Lai-Yung Ruby Leung13, Jian Lu13, Jing-Jia Luo14, Jiafu Mao15, Matthew S. Mizielinski2, Ryo Mizuta16, Paulo Nobre17, Masaki 18 4 19 20 10 Satoh , Enrico Scoccimarro , Tido Semmler , Justin Small , Jin-Song von Storch21 1Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, The Netherlands 2Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK 15 3University of Reading, Reading, UK 4 Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy 5LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing , China P.R. 6Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, USA 7National Research Council – Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Italy 20 8Barcelona Super Computer Center, Earth Sciences Department, Barcelona, Spain 9Netherlands eScience Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands 10Wageningen University, The Netherlands 11Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan 12Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden 25 13Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, USA 14Bureau of Meteorology, Australia 15Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA 16Meteorological Research Institute, -
Orographic Effect on the Summer
Orographic Effects on South China Sea Summer Climate Haiming Xu∗ Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China Shang-Ping Xie and Yuqing Wang International Pacific Research Center and Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii, Hawaii, USA Wei Zhuang, and Dongxiao Wang LED,South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Science, Guangzhou, China Submitted to Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics April, 2007 ∗ Corresponding author address: Dr. Haiming Xu, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, 114 New Street, Pancheng, Pukou District, Nanjing 210044, China. E-mail: [email protected] Abstract New satellite observations reveal several distinct features of the South China Sea (SCS) summer climate: an intense low-level southwesterly wind jet off the coast of South Vietnam, a precipitation band on the western flank of the north-south running Annam mountain range, and a rainfall shadow to the east in the western SCS off the east coast of Vietnam. A high-resolution full-physics regional atmospheric model is used to investigate the mechanism for the formation of SCS summer climate. A comparison of the control model simulation with a sensitivity experiment with the mountain range artificially removed demonstrates that the aforementioned features form due to orographic effects of the Annam mountains. Under the prevailing southwesterly monsoon, the mountain range forces the ascending motion on the windward and subsidence on the lee side, giving rise to bands of active and suppressed convection, respectively. On the south edge of the mountain range, the southwesterlies are accelerated to form an offshore low-level wind jet. -
Climate Change Scenario Report
2020 CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO REPORT WWW.SUSTAINABILITY.FORD.COM FORD’S CLIMATE CHANGE PRODUCTS, OPERATIONS: CLIMATE SCENARIO SERVICES AND FORD FACILITIES PUBLIC 2 Climate Change Scenario Report 2020 STRATEGY PLANNING TRUST EXPERIENCES AND SUPPLIERS POLICY CONCLUSION ABOUT THIS REPORT In conjunction with our annual sustainability report, this Climate Change CONTENTS Scenario Report is intended to provide stakeholders with our perspective 3 Ford’s Climate Strategy on the risks and opportunities around climate change and our transition to a low-carbon economy. It addresses details of Ford’s vision of the low-carbon 5 Climate Change Scenario Planning future, as well as strategies that will be important in managing climate risk. 11 Business Strategy for a Changing World This is Ford’s second climate change scenario report. In this report we use 12 Trust the scenarios previously developed, while further discussing how we use scenario analysis and its relation to our carbon reduction goals. Based on 13 Products, Services and Experiences stakeholder feedback, we have included physical risk analysis, additional 16 Operations: Ford Facilities detail on our electrification plan, and policy engagement. and Suppliers 19 Public Policy This report is intended to supplement our first report, as well as our Sustainability Report, and does not attempt to cover the same ground. 20 Conclusion A summary of the scenarios is in this report for the reader’s convenience. An explanation of how they were developed, and additional strategies Ford is using to address climate change can be found in our first report. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS Through our climate change scenario planning we are contributing to SDG 6 Clean water and sanitation, SDG 7 Affordable and clean energy, SDG 9 Industry, innovation and infrastructure and SDG 13 Climate action. -
Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming (Cambridge: MIT Press, 2010)
Complete bibliography of all items cited in A Vast Machine: Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming (Cambridge: MIT Press, 2010) Paul N. Edwards Caveat: this bibliography contains occasional typographical errors and incomplete citations. Abbate, Janet. Inventing the Internet. Inside Technology. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1999. Abbe, Cleveland. “The Weather Map on the Polar Projection.” Monthly Weather Review 42, no. 1 (1914): 36-38. Abelson, P. H. “Scientific Communication.” Science 209, no. 4452 (1980): 60-62. Aber, John D. “Terrestrial Ecosystems.” In Climate System Modeling, edited by Kevin E. Trenberth, 173- 200. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992. Ad Hoc Study Group on Carbon Dioxide and Climate. “Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment.” (1979): Air Force Data Control Unit. Machine Methods of Weather Statistics. New Orleans: Air Weather Service, 1948. Air Force Data Control Unit. Machine Methods of Weather Statistics. New Orleans: Air Weather Service, 1949. Alaka, MA, and RC Elvander. “Optimum Interpolation From Observations of Mixed Quality.” Monthly Weather Review 100, no. 8 (1972): 612-24. Edwards, A Vast Machine Bibliography 1 Alder, Ken. The Measure of All Things: The Seven-Year Odyssey and Hidden Error That Transformed the World. New York: Free Press, 2002. Allen, MR, and DJ Frame. “Call Off the Quest.” Science 318, no. 5850 (2007): 582. Alvarez, LW, W Alvarez, F Asaro, and HV Michel. “Extraterrestrial Cause for the Cretaceous-Tertiary Extinction.” Science 208, no. 4448 (1980): 1095-108. American Meteorological Society. 2000. Glossary of Meteorology. http://amsglossary.allenpress.com/glossary/ Anderson, E. C., and W. F. Libby. “World-Wide Distribution of Natural Radiocarbon.” Physical Review 81, no. -
Aerosol-Orography-Precipitation – a Critical Assessment T Goutam Choudhurya, Bhishma Tyagia,*, Jyotsna Singhb, Chandan Sarangic, S.N
Atmospheric Environment 214 (2019) 116831 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Atmospheric Environment journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/atmosenv Review article Aerosol-orography-precipitation – A critical assessment T Goutam Choudhurya, Bhishma Tyagia,*, Jyotsna Singhb, Chandan Sarangic, S.N. Tripathid a Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, National Institute of Technology Rourkela, Rourkela, 769008, Odisha, India b Shanti Raj Bhawan, Paramhans Nagar, Kandwa, Varanasi, 221106, India c Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, United States d Department of Civil Engineering & Department of Earth Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, Kanpur, 208016, India GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Keywords: The increasing anthropogenic pollution and its interaction with precipitation received much attention from the Aerosols research community and have been explored extensively for understanding the aerosol-cloud interactions. The Aerosol-orography-precipitation interactions impacts of orography and aerosols on the precipitation processes have unveiled the Aerosol-Orography- Cloud microphysics Precipitation (AOP) interaction as an essential research area. The understanding of AOP interaction is critical for Spillover effect improving the extreme rainfall events prediction over mountainous regions. The phase of clouds (warm or Orographic enhancement factor mixed) along with orography has emerged as a significant factor for influencing the AOP relations. The present work reviews the modelling and observational based studies dealing with the relationship between orography and aerosols on the precipitation. The study reveals the principal role of aerosols in shifting the precipitation pattern for orographic regions. The environmental factors, especially ambient temperature, humidity and flow patterns are also identified to affect the orographic precipitation. The review also discovers that AOP studies exist only to limited areas of the world due to limited observations, and mostly with idealised cases in the modelling framework. -
Climate Scenario Development
13 Climate Scenario Development Co-ordinating Lead Authors L.O. Mearns, M. Hulme Lead Authors T.R. Carter, R. Leemans, M. Lal, P. Whetton Contributing Authors L. Hay, R.N. Jones, R. Katz, T. Kittel, J. Smith, R. Wilby Review Editors L.J. Mata, J. Zillman Contents Executive Summary 741 13.4.1.3 Applications of the methods to impacts 752 13.1 Introduction 743 13.4.2 Temporal Variability 752 13.1.1 Definition and Nature of Scenarios 743 13.4.2.1 Incorporation of changes in 13.1.2 Climate Scenario Needs of the Impacts variability: daily to interannual Community 744 time-scales 752 13.4.2.2 Other techniques for incorporating 13.2 Types of Scenarios of Future Climate 745 extremes into climate scenarios 754 13.2.1 Incremental Scenarios for Sensitivity Studies 746 13.5 Representing Uncertainty in Climate Scenarios 755 13.2.2 Analogue Scenarios 748 13.5.1 Key Uncertainties in Climate Scenarios 755 13.2.2.1 Spatial analogues 748 13.5.1.1 Specifying alternative emissions 13.2.2.2 Temporal analogues 748 futures 755 13.2.3 Scenarios Based on Outputs from Climate 13.5.1.2 Uncertainties in converting Models 748 emissions to concentrations 755 13.2.3.1 Scenarios from General 13.5.1.3 Uncertainties in converting Circulation Models 748 concentrations to radiative forcing 755 13.2.3.2 Scenarios from simple climate 13.5.1.4 Uncertainties in modelling the models 749 climate response to a given forcing 755 13.2.4 Other Types of Scenarios 749 13.5.1.5 Uncertainties in converting model response into inputs for impact 13.3 Defining the Baseline 749 studies 756 -
What Even Is 'Climate'?
Geosci. Commun. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2018-11 Manuscript under review for journal Geosci. Commun. Discussion started: 13 July 2018 c Author(s) 2018. CC BY 4.0 License. What even is ‘Climate’? Oliver Bothe1 1Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute of Coastal Research, Max-Planck-Strasse 1, 21502, Geesthacht, Germany Correspondence: Oliver Bothe ([email protected], [email protected]) Abstract. Although the concept of climate is easy to understand, there is not any uncontroversial definition of it. Most def- initions fall back to the simple formulation that ‘climate is the statistics of weather’. Recent attempts at a definition called versions of this saying vague. Climate is policy-relevant, and discussions on climate and climate change benefit from clarity on the topic. Beyond the policy relevance a definition should also be valid for scientific purposes and for individual views. It 5 has to account for a general concept and individual instances of climate. Here, I try to highlight why the flexibility and the immediacy of the colloquial definition fit the topic. This defence shifts the lack of a clear definition towards the term ‘weather’ and the time-scales separating weather and climate. 1 Introduction “Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get” (e.g., Geographical Association and London Geographical Institute, 10 1902; Lorenz, unpublished). Or: “Climate is the statistics of weather” (e.g., McBean et al., 1992; Easterling et al., 1999; Farmer, 2014; Molua and Lambi, 2007; von Storch, 2004; Roe and O’Neal, 2009; Roe, 2009). Public discourse and scientific literature frequently use versions of these colloquial sayings. -
Improving the Contribution of Climate Model Information to Decision Making: the Value and Demands of Robust Decision Frameworks
Advanced Review Improving the contribution of climate model information to decision making: the value and demands of robust decision frameworks Christopher P. Weaver,1∗ Robert J. Lempert,2 Casey Brown,3 John A. Hall,4 David Revell5 and Daniel Sarewitz6 In this paper, we review the need for, use of, and demands on climate modeling to support so-called ‘robust’ decision frameworks, in the context of improving the contribution of climate information to effective decision making. Such frameworks seek to identify policy vulnerabilities under deep uncertainty about the future and propose strategies for minimizing regret in the event of broken assumptions. We argue that currently there is a severe underutilization of climate models as tools for supporting decision making, and that this is slowing progress in developing informed adaptation and mitigation responses to climate change. This underutilization stems from two root causes, about which there is a growing body of literature: one, a widespread, but limiting, conception that the usefulness of climate models in planning begins and ends with regional-scale predictions of multidecadal climate change; two, the general failure so far to incorporate learning from the decision and social sciences into climate-related decision support in key sectors. We further argue that addressing these root causes will require expanding the conception of climate models; not simply as prediction machines within ‘predict-then-act’ decision frameworks, but as scenario generators, sources of insight into complex system behavior, and aids to critical thinking within robust decision frameworks. Such a shift, however, would have implications for how users perceive and use information from climate models and, ultimately, the types of information they will demand from these models—and thus for the types of simulations and numerical experiments that will have the most value for informing decision making. -
Southern African Orography Impacts on Low Clouds and the Atlantic ITCZ
PUBLICATIONS Geophysical Research Letters RESEARCH LETTER Southern African orography impacts on low clouds 10.1002/2017GL073098 and the Atlantic ITCZ in a coupled model Key Points: S. F. Potter1 , E. J. Dawson2, and D. M. W. Frierson2 • Namibian stratocumulus deck thins fi signi cantly due to the removal of 1Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA, southern African orography 2 • Atlantic ITCZ shifts south due to the Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA increase in temperature resulting from the reduction of Namibian low clouds • Use of a coupled model allows ocean Abstract We examine the influence of southern African orography on the Namibian stratocumulus deck, circulation to cool the South Atlantic, the South Atlantic ocean-to-atmosphere energy transport, and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which lessens and changes the structure of the ITCZ shift using an atmosphere-only model and a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. For both models, a control simulation with realistic orography is compared to a simulation where the orography in southern Africa was removed. As in the previous studies, the removal of orography results in thinning of the Namibian stratocumulus deck. In the coupled model, the increased sea surface temperature in the southern Atlantic Correspondence to: S. F. Potter, due to the reduction of low clouds forces the Atlantic ITCZ to shift southward toward the warmer [email protected] hemisphere. However, changes in the ocean circulation cool the South Atlantic atmosphere, lessening the ITCZ shift and changing the structure of precipitation. These results show the importance of orography on Citation: shaping Atlantic rainfall and highlight the role of dynamical ocean processes in atmospheric dynamics.