www.weatherwithouttechnology.co.uk

APRIL 2020

PREAMBLE

Tree of the month to the 14th is the alder, thereafter the willow. Sadly we have a culture, again top downwards, despite pleas and promises to plant more trees, of chopping trees down. There is also the problem of manmade flooding due to poor land management, building on unsuitable ground, concreting/blocking/tar macadam usage etc. A humble suggestion maybe to reduce such flooding, support and reinforce the river/water channels adjacent to your property; our Victorian ancestors built canals and to sustain the banks planted alder, willow, hazel and other such excellent trees along the water edges, these support and reinforce the river banks, whilst also giving shade to plant life in the river, a true winning situation. Such trees too are quite aesthetic and improve the landscape and can be easily grown from cuttings and not expensive to purchase either. There is an excellent PDF on the internet issued by the Scottish Environmental Agency on just this subject; www.SEPA.org.uk and then search for river bank protection.

Welcome to the April 2020 website entry. Since the publication of the Spring 2020 and March 2020 website entries, both of which contained the ‘farewell letter,’ I been amazed and at the same time, humbled, at the overwhelming response from what I term as ‘silent/unknown’ readers of the website, no disrespect intended either, it is my best choice of words. I have a database here of every mail that arrives concerning the website to whom I send a reply, I am therefore able to see quite easily the above ‘silent/unknown’ readers – who are also now on the database. I have replied individually to you all.

The aim of the website was/is to educate, entertain, enlighten interest and engage the reader – of any age too – in how nature affects, and with the moon, controls the UK weather; to this end I have endeavoured to use plants, birds, animals, trees and anecdotes to enrich everyone.

In the course of this endeavour, I also wrote two books, both well received, did several TV appearances and also radio talk-in shows too; more recently too community radio have found me; from all the above the word has spread far and wide. I have tried to educate interest and entertain; I have no side, what you see is what you get, warts and all, but importantly the content and data is as near perfect as I am able to get it; I am however human and none of us is perfect.

The above product, collectively, has, I now know, from many replies/mails from you kind readers who have written, informs me that the aims I set out have been achieved; without exception every mail (and thank you too for taking the time to sit down and write too) tells me the message has been received, understood, acted upon and, sadly, sorely missed.

The long-run period (9 months) – a pregnant pause, maybe, that is sufficient time to gauge the response [for in all honesty I did not expect the truly massive feed-back] and maybe see if any suggestions came forth; and from there consult my partners and see what might be possible, short of the website. I have now a myriad of suggestions from these letters – all constructive, none derogatory or rude – enough to sit down and re-assess. The general message is loud and clear it runs like this ‘Thank you for your data, your interest, your knowledge, you understanding of nature, the accuracy of your predictions, we will miss you so much. The reasons for the ‘farewell’ are understood and, sadly, reluctantly accepted; but maybe, just maybe you might reconsider?’

So, I hear the message loud and clear, I am actively engaged on trying to meet some of the demands/suggestions; and, as such will keep you all informed of any progress. I now therefore ask for a little patience and understanding, whilst possibilities are explored. I am still here until November, therefore a while to go yet.

Despite all exceptions above, the mail flow here increases weekly as more find the website on the Internet, such interest is welcome, but is also a two-edged sword. I have to find the happy medium to satisfy your all and give myself breathing space. Thank you all for kindnesses, your kind words and I too will miss the repartee in the mails. Watch this space.

So what happened to the coldest winter I predicted? The air was just not cold enough for lots of snow. Careful checking of the winter website entry will reveal everything there was very accurate – except no snow. I can only write what the methodology highlights; nature deigns when to act….I am not God and cannot control nature. However, even real meteorologists on TV at times have the same problems too – so it goes with the territory, it is not an exact science. The main thing is that the major named storms were all were all predicted months ahead exactly as they happened, and working 180 days ahead, that points to pretty accurate methodology. I can manage the difficult, the impossible takes somewhat longer!

During my extensive research before sitting down to try work out a methodology, I found, at best, since 850 AD to about 1970, just seven or so references to a NW wind on 29th September. However I learnt over time, that it is the minutiae, such as this, that give the real priceless clues; as such our forefathers were superb at noting such events, therefore I too noted what they wrote. There is no data that worth discarding if our forefathers took the trouble to write it down.

This NW wind warned of danger, distress, death and destruction if it occurred on 29th September; it did not give an exact day nor in what form such an event would take. The latest such event was the winter of 1947, and, working ahead as I do, I saw that, if cold enough, a lot of snow would fall and it could well be the coldest winter for many years; please note the major caveat ‘if cold enough.’

However, it did not manifest itself as snow, but in autumn as severe flooding across much of the UK, and all four of the above conditions were fulfilled. The flooding continued too for a long time, many, sadly will still be distressed as a result in year’s time too, water takes a long time to dry out, I speak from personal experience.

However, the weekend of 9th February brought the unholy triumvirate together in the form of a Full Moon, perigee, highest spring tides, rain and storms together (all predicted and highlighted months ahead on the website too); but this time joined by Storm Ciara, one of the strongest storms for a long time with exceptionally high winds from the WNW direction and the results are there for all to witness.

As a result of the earlier flooding, this time and the consequences that came from it, I can agree 100% with what our esteemed and clever forefathers wrote concerning the NW wind on 29th September; it is indeed a rare event, but it does bring danger, distress, death and destruction in its wake. For those of you making notes, yes there are many too, please make special note of this event; it may be in a changing world, more such instances may occur.me.

However an excellent reliable saw came home to roost and gave a very cold spell – as predicted – at the end of February into March “The hottest days in the preceding June give the coldest days in the following February.” Exactly so; such sayings maybe old, but they work; and once again the cold came for the eastern from the east too – again as predicted.

I now know too that in the aftermath of the 1947 and 1962/63 winters there was severe flooding in many of the same regions flooded recently – thank you to those that have written to tell .

BIG WARNING: Maundy Thursday 8th April – advance warning of maybe some serious flooding and allied problems in this period 8th – 14th April – which covers Easter too: Full moon; perigee, highest spring tides, rain and North Sea Surge all within the 36 hour danger period. I just write what the tried tested proven and reliable methodology here highlights – nature delivers, I try to suggest problems ahead. With this NW airstream still very active nothing can be left to chance, you had heed or ignore the warning.

Forward now to April [the spring expert analysis is in the spring website entry – I will not repeat it here], from expert analysis culled from a variety of tried trusted expert opinions.

The first week of April normally brings quiet uneventful weather to most districts in Britain, though it remains rather cold in northern districts, with frost at night, and this can be quiet severe in enclosed valleys and over the Scottish Lowlands generally. Mid-April tends to be unsettled, particularly the period 10 -15th April, which produces moderately stormy weather during 38 out of 50 years, with a peak day of 14th April. Prevailing winds at this time generally blow from between west and North West, and this bring heavy showers, and these affect western districts and high ground facing west coasts in particular. Some of the showers fall as hail. This unsettled weather normally acts as a decided check in the seasonal rise of temperature, for day and night temperatures are cold. Between 10 – 13th April very cold nights are frequent in London and the Home counties [Ed Note; Blackthorn winter].

The second half of April normally opens the beginning of the season in britain. The third week of April is generally quite bright and sunny, but also gives showers bat times, and some of these are indeed of a thundery character. There is a risk that the moderately warm day temperatures may suddenly be countered by a day or two of colder weather, with snowstorms in some northern and eastern districts around 17-19th April.

In roughly every other year there is a period of decidedly cool, unsettled weather between 23-26th April, with considerable risk of snowfall in southern England. The final days of the month normally see better weather, with quickly rising day temperatures and less risk of night frost in all areas.

For older readers; around 23rd April – St George’s Day- we also had Empire Day – big colourful processions of scouts, guides, local organisations and uniforms from across the world too, to celebrate the Empire – and it invariable was a cold day too with snow high on the list too; therefore snow indeed is not unknown as late as 23rd April. Sadly, no more such ‘Empire Days,’ they have gone the same way as electric trams and trolleybuses – noiseless, efficient and cast aside –progress.

Jeremy Clarkson is not one of my favoured persons, however he does at times speak excellent truths; he recently put St Greta of Ikea back onto her box, one the few to speak up too. However he also commented on the Australian fires, and, very correctly stated that the indigenous occupants of that country knew how to control such problems by clever land management and in so doing reduced the possibilities of such horrendous bush fires. Sadly ‘enlightened greens,’ do not heed such old customs, the result being that because necessary and prudent land management was not done, the bush fires took hold. I mention this adherence to old customs since I too have problems at times with such ‘green people/armchair weather experts,’ I use an old tried, tested and proven agenda from 1000 years ago. It worked then and still works today. It if ain’t broke then don’t fix it. The storms and rain since September, our forefathers wrote of in 850 ad and on seven subsequent times since, their observations were and are 100% correct.

On 17th February the announced the investment of a new state-of-the-art to super-computer to improve severe weather and climate forecasting. Government have confirmed the £1.2 billion funding for this equipment. Amongst the claims made for the current £97 million computer (dated from 28th October 2014) was that it successfully predicted Storms Ciara and Denis and the flooding. Just a couple of comments from here on this development, yes it might seem churlish, but what the hell, in July 2109 on a hot sunny day I sat down in the garden and spent 4 hours composing checking and writing the February 2020 website entry. Total cost was 50pence – a can of cider; and that afternoon I predicted exactly the above incidents too, yes I also warned of flooding and associated problems too.

Question: If in 2014 £97 million was spent with that state of the art computer (all singing and dancing), however can £1.2 billion be justified on a new such item of equipment? Maybe, if the Met Office was an agency that had to earn its keep, then the forecasting would improve and also the cost to the public purse (for we fund them out of taxes) would be reduced? I think aloud, but from the mails I get here, dis- satisfaction on the Met Office performances for UK weather border on the lamentable to the dubious.

Wood burning and house coal burning stoves – as announced on 21st February 2020, will be banned from burning house coal and wet wood (logs freshly chopped and not kiln dried) as from 2021, when permitted fuel will be only from kiln dried wood and manufactured solid fuels. So, instead of smelling wood logs we may be breathing in maybe harmful chemicals from ‘manufactured solid fuels.’ Progress then!

In the March preamble I mentioned the poor farming community – forgive me please, I come back to them again, to try to defend them. This time the Extinction Mob (deliberately chosen word too) now tell the farmer to cease cattle production to reduce greenhouse gases. Do these people not understand that most farms in the UK are family concerns with generations of family history, that farming is their life and living? It is a sign of the coward to pick on the defenceless, the sign of a bully. Such mobs are beginning to over- rule the rule of law, the UK is a democracy, and as such certain norms are respected; this is not a good sign and the law enforcement is not what it was or should be either; as a result we all suffer, some more than others. Time has come for some normality to be restored and such a mob culture that ridicules, damages, wilfully damages too, the defenceless, must be called to book, lest anarchy takes over. Further to this, newspaper reports, from a Whitehall quote, say that fishing and farming in the UK is not necessary (newspaper reports 1st March), we can import all our needs.

I am no shrinking violet, therefore when I hear a Government Minister telling me that the recent acute flooding in several parts of the UK is a result of ‘global warming/climate change,’ I speak out. Please Mr Minister (Secretary Eustace) show me your evidence for such an unfounded and wild claim? There is none; there are opinions and suggestions, but NO proof. Such statements might be construed at best as Fake news (or plain ignorance of the facts) or at worst disingenuous. For a Government Minister to speak in such terms shows lack of knowledge of his brief or just plain ignorance. The recent floods are explained, with proof, logically across this website. They are not the result of ‘climate change/global warming.’ Maybe The Minister should concentrate his efforts to cleaning the gullies, drains and ditches; to enforcing the proliferation of needless building on flood plains and other unsuitable locations, to re-planting so many vital trees his department are felling, the list goes on - and show that he actually is on top of his brief; a poor workmen always blames his tools.

@David King Edenbridge March 2020 APRIL 2020

NEW MOON = 23rd @ 0226hrs = Cold & rain showers 1st QUARTER MOON = 1st @ 1121hrs = Cold & high winds AND 30th @ 2138hrs = rainy FULL MOON 8th @ 0335hrs = Rain & stormy + SUPERMOON LAST QUARTER MOON 14th @ 2356hrs = Fair

LYRIDS METEOR SHOWER 22nd -23rd

DoP = Good Friday 10th

Highest spring tides 7th to the 12th

Apogee 20th @ 2001hrs : Perigee 7th @ 1908hrs

MOON THIS MONTH IS KNOWN AS PINK MOON (from the name of the herb moss pink or wild ground phlox) OR SPROUTING GRASS MOON/ EGG MOON/FISH MOON.

BUCHAN COLD PERIOD 11th – 14th.

MET OFFICE STORMY PERIOD 23rd to the 26th.

1st All Fools Day Should it rain on All Fools Day, it brings good crops of corn and hay.

5th Palm Sunday If weather not clear this day it means a bad year. If thunder today a merry year. Dandelion day East Anglia.

6th Latter Lady Day - the cold comes on the water. Hop Monday Hop pole erection day.

7th Perigee @ 1908hrs

9th Maundy Thursday – Fine on Holy Thursday , wet on Whit Monday (1st June)

10th Good Friday DoP up to 25th May (St Urban). Rain on Good Friday and Easter Day, a good year for grass and a bad one for hay (wet June). - This signifies a wet year and such weather on Good Friday will last for 40 days. also known as Primrose Day – in memory of the British prime minister Benjamin Disreali who died on this day in 1881.

11th - 14th Blackthorn Winter

12th Easter Day If sunshine today, so at Whitsun (24th May). Rainy Easter = cheesy year (wet). Greenfly at Easter - June will blister.

14th Cuckoo Day The cuckoo song is first heard about this time. 15th St Basilissa Swallows arrive.

16th St Padarn Celtic Goddess - traditionally the day to start weeding growing crops.

19th = Low Sunday = This Sunday settles the weather for the whole summer

20th Apogee @ 2001hrs

23rd St George Comes the cuckoo and the nightingale. When St George growls (thunder) in the sky, wind and storms are drawing nigh. Harebell flowering day. Mallard Day From a festival at All Souls College, Oxford.

23rd to 26th A cold stormy period bringing heavy showers.

25th St Mark As long before this day frogs are heard a-croaking, so long will they keep quiet afterwards. The cuckoo heralds the arrival of migratory birds from the south, indicating the return of summer.

26th Pastor Sunday = It if rains this day it will rain every Sunday until Pentecost (31st May)

The full moon this month is known as the Pink Moon, also known as egg moon, grass moon, rain moon, growing moon.

The tree of the month up to the 14th is the Alder, thereafter the Willow.

General Notes and Comments

The month of season changes, young leaves and blossoms unfold. April and May are the keys to the whole year. The first really cheerful month of the year. Rarely a very wet month, can be completely dry. Annual humidity is at its lowest and can produce dust storms.

Hottest ever April in 2007/2011

As a general rule, April weather is a mixture of all sorts. April weather, rain and sunshine together. We must suffer a cold wet April if we want a good summer. Cold weather in April is supposed to be good for bumper harvest. A cold April - barn will fill.

A dry March and a rainy April makes a beautiful May.

Most old sayings say it is best to have a wet April. When April blows his horn, ‘tis good for hay and corn. [the reference to ‘horn’ means thunder, it also means a good summer]

April cold and wet fills the barns best yet.

April wet, good wheat. After a cold April the barns fill best.

April cold and wet fills barns and barrels.

April rain makes large sheaves.

April showers bring May flowers.

East wind in spring a brilliant summer will bring.

When doves start to coo the last frosts have gone. After a wet April a dry June. After a moist April a clear June.

Spring has come when a virgin can cover six daisies with her foot.

When winter meets summer it fortells a hot dry summer [sometimes a prolonged winter seems to turn into summer overnight].

The weather in the second half of April fortells the summer. [wise words commanding respect] Cloudy April - dewy May. in April - floods in May. Showery April -Flowery May. Dry Spring - wet Autumn. Thunder in spring and cold it will bring.

Blackthorn Winter - 11th -14th April. Just as the Blackthorn is coming into blossom expect some fine weather. However if the flower arrives before the leaf then expect a cold snap. AND If he blooms before the leaves appear, be sure there will be a bitter spell - perhaps even with snow. [this is a most accurate saying] 23rd St Georges Day - If it rains today St George eats all the cherries.

Much February snow - April summer doth show. [check records]

Early Cuckoo - dry summer (arrival in or before early April). The later he arrives the worse the summer.

When March has April weather, April will have March weather. E/NE winds reach their greatest frequency during April and May. After a warm April and a warm October, a warm year to come. A dry Lent spells a fertile year.

April, more than March, can have both summer and winter embrace it. April can also be more snowy than December. Classic April snowstorms of 1966 &1981. Whilst in 1949 the mercury topped 80F(27C).

April has the face of a monk and the claws of a cat.

Thunderstorms in April is the end of hoar-frost.

If the first three days be foggy, there will be a flood in June. (rain in June will make the lanes boggy)

April may be famous for its showers, but it is rarely a very wet month. Quite the contrary - April is one of the driest months of the year in all parts of the UK.

Greenfly at Easter, June will blister.

Rainy Easter - a cheesy year (much rain = plenty of grass)

Northerly winds over northern reach their highest frequency around 15th June. But are rare after 20th June. Meanwhile SW winds blow comparatively infrequently from late March until 10th June, but are very much more common during the rest of June. From the same research, taking England & Wales as a whole, the driest months of the year are:- March, April & May, and occasionally February and June. These months are also the months when long drags of unsettled westerly winds are unlikely to occur. Monthly rainfall is between 2.3/2.6 ins (58/66mms) for each month from February to June. From July onwards 3.2/3.8ins (81/96mms).

23rd/26th - A cold stormy period brings heavy showers. There is also a similar period mid-month.

Tidal energies are ruled by moon particularly this month, possibly the reason for the severely changeable weather at this time.

Late Easter = long cold spring. The weather at Easter fortells the harvest.

THE FULL MOON THIS MONTH IS KNOWN AS THE PINK MOON, also known as egg moon, grass moon, rain moon, growing moon.

The tree of the month up to the 14th is the Alder. Thereafter is the Willow.

MONTHLY AVERAGES FOR EDENBRIDGE (USING 1981-2010 FIGURES) Mean Max: 15.5C Mean Min: 3.3C Mean Avg: 9.4C Rainfall: 60.5mm Sunshine: 191.9hrs (day = 6.4hrs)

Whilst I appreciate the above are local figures, it will be an indication of what the averages are, and, of course there will be local variations. Such variations can be found by trawling the various weather websites, or by using the superb data found in the Climatologists Observers Link website.

The following figures are for the average temperature at 12 noon and again at 4pm, taken at the beginning and again at the end of the month. 1st 12.2C 13.3C 30th 14.4C 15.5C

DATE Chandler & Gregory Brooks Lamb Buchan Met Office Season Barry & Perry

April 01 28/3 to 1st Cold stormy 30/3 - 17/6 April 02 period spring April 03 April 04 April 05 April 06 April 07 April 08 April 09 April 10 10th - 15th Stormy April 11 11th - 14th April 12 12th - 19th cold stormy cold April 13 period period April 14 peak day April 15 April 16 April 17 peak day April 18 peak day April 19 peak day April 20 April 21 April 22 April 23 April 24 April 25 April 26 April 27 April 28 April 29 29th to 16th May Northerly 30/3 - 17/6 April 30 weather with some spring anti-cyclonic periods Apl -20 Date Day Moon Weather DoP Saint/Holy Other Apogee Equinox Met Buchan Super- Highest Day Day Perigee Eclipse Office moon tides 01/04/2020 W 1 st Q Cold & All Fools Day 02/04/2020 T high winds 03/04/2020 F 04/04/2020 S 05/04/2020 S Palm Sunday Dandelion day 06/04/2020 M Latter Lady Day 07/04/2020 T Perigee highest 08/04/2020 W FULL Rain/ 1908hrs YES 7th 09/04/2020 T stormy Maundy Thursday to 10/04/2020 F YES Good Friday 12th 11/04/2020 S Blackthorn cold 11th 12/04/2020 S Easter winter to 13/04/2020 M 11th to 14th 14/04/2020 T Last Q Fair Cuckoo Day 14th 15/04/2020 W St Basilissa 16/04/2020 T St Padarn 17/04/2020 F 18/04/2020 S 19/04/2020 S Low |Sunday 20/04/2020 M Apogee 21/04/2020 T 2001hrs 22/04/2020 W meteor shower 23/04/2020 T NEW Cold & St George 23rd 24/04/2020 F rain to 25/04/2020 S showers St Mark 26th 26/04/2020 S Pastor Sunday Stormy 27/04/2020 M 28/04/2020 T 29/04/2020 W 30/04/2020 T 1st Q Rainy