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April 2020 Forecast

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April 2020 Forecast www.weatherwithouttechnology.co.uk APRIL 2020 PREAMBLE Tree of the month to the 14th is the alder, thereafter the willow. Sadly we have a culture, again top downwards, despite pleas and promises to plant more trees, of chopping trees down. There is also the problem of manmade flooding due to poor land management, building on unsuitable ground, concreting/blocking/tar macadam usage etc. A humble suggestion maybe to reduce such flooding, support and reinforce the river/water channels adjacent to your property; our Victorian ancestors built canals and to sustain the banks planted alder, willow, hazel and other such excellent trees along the water edges, these support and reinforce the river banks, whilst also giving shade to plant life in the river, a true winning situation. Such trees too are quite aesthetic and improve the landscape and can be easily grown from cuttings and not expensive to purchase either. There is an excellent PDF on the internet issued by the Scottish Environmental Agency on just this subject; www.SEPA.org.uk and then search for river bank protection. Welcome to the April 2020 website entry. Since the publication of the Spring 2020 and March 2020 website entries, both of which contained the ‘farewell letter,’ I been amazed and at the same time, humbled, at the overwhelming response from what I term as ‘silent/unknown’ readers of the website, no disrespect intended either, it is my best choice of words. I have a database here of every mail that arrives concerning the website to whom I send a reply, I am therefore able to see quite easily the above ‘silent/unknown’ readers – who are also now on the database. I have replied individually to you all. The aim of the website was/is to educate, entertain, enlighten interest and engage the reader – of any age too – in how nature affects, and with the moon, controls the UK weather; to this end I have endeavoured to use plants, birds, animals, trees and anecdotes to enrich everyone. In the course of this endeavour, I also wrote two books, both well received, did several TV appearances and also radio talk-in shows too; more recently too community radio have found me; from all the above the word has spread far and wide. I have tried to educate interest and entertain; I have no side, what you see is what you get, warts and all, but importantly the content and data is as near perfect as I am able to get it; I am however human and none of us is perfect. The above product, collectively, has, I now know, from many replies/mails from you kind readers who have written, informs me that the aims I set out have been achieved; without exception every mail (and thank you too for taking the time to sit down and write too) tells me the message has been received, understood, acted upon and, sadly, sorely missed. The long-run period (9 months) – a pregnant pause, maybe, that is sufficient time to gauge the response [for in all honesty I did not expect the truly massive feed-back] and maybe see if any suggestions came forth; and from there consult my partners and see what might be possible, short of the website. I have now a myriad of suggestions from these letters – all constructive, none derogatory or rude – enough to sit down and re-assess. The general message is loud and clear it runs like this ‘Thank you for your data, your interest, your knowledge, you understanding of nature, the accuracy of your predictions, we will miss you so much. The reasons for the ‘farewell’ are understood and, sadly, reluctantly accepted; but maybe, just maybe you might reconsider?’ So, I hear the message loud and clear, I am actively engaged on trying to meet some of the demands/suggestions; and, as such will keep you all informed of any progress. I now therefore ask for a little patience and understanding, whilst possibilities are explored. I am still here until November, therefore a while to go yet. Despite all exceptions above, the mail flow here increases weekly as more find the website on the Internet, such interest is welcome, but is also a two-edged sword. I have to find the happy medium to satisfy your all and give myself breathing space. Thank you all for kindnesses, your kind words and I too will miss the repartee in the mails. Watch this space. So what happened to the coldest winter I predicted? The air was just not cold enough for lots of snow. Careful checking of the winter website entry will reveal everything there was very accurate – except no snow. I can only write what the methodology highlights; nature deigns when to act….I am not God and cannot control nature. However, even real meteorologists on TV at times have the same problems too – so it goes with the territory, it is not an exact science. The main thing is that the major named storms were all were all predicted months ahead exactly as they happened, and working 180 days ahead, that points to pretty accurate methodology. I can manage the difficult, the impossible takes somewhat longer! During my extensive research before sitting down to try work out a methodology, I found, at best, since 850 AD to about 1970, just seven or so references to a NW wind on 29th September. However I learnt over time, that it is the minutiae, such as this, that give the real priceless clues; as such our forefathers were superb at noting such events, therefore I too noted what they wrote. There is no data that worth discarding if our forefathers took the trouble to write it down. This NW wind warned of danger, distress, death and destruction if it occurred on 29th September; it did not give an exact day nor in what form such an event would take. The latest such event was the winter of 1947, and, working ahead as I do, I saw that, if cold enough, a lot of snow would fall and it could well be the coldest winter for many years; please note the major caveat ‘if cold enough.’ However, it did not manifest itself as snow, but in autumn as severe flooding across much of the UK, and all four of the above conditions were fulfilled. The flooding continued too for a long time, many, sadly will still be distressed as a result in year’s time too, water takes a long time to dry out, I speak from personal experience. However, the weekend of 9th February brought the unholy triumvirate together in the form of a Full Moon, perigee, highest spring tides, rain and storms together (all predicted and highlighted months ahead on the website too); but this time joined by Storm Ciara, one of the strongest storms for a long time with exceptionally high winds from the WNW direction and the results are there for all to witness. As a result of the earlier flooding, this time and the consequences that came from it, I can agree 100% with what our esteemed and clever forefathers wrote concerning the NW wind on 29th September; it is indeed a rare event, but it does bring danger, distress, death and destruction in its wake. For those of you making notes, yes there are many too, please make special note of this event; it may be in a changing world, more such instances may occur.me. However an excellent reliable saw came home to roost and gave a very cold spell – as predicted – at the end of February into March “The hottest days in the preceding June give the coldest days in the following February.” Exactly so; such sayings maybe old, but they work; and once again the cold came for the eastern from the east too – again as predicted. I now know too that in the aftermath of the 1947 and 1962/63 winters there was severe flooding in many of the same regions flooded recently – thank you to those that have written to tell . BIG WARNING: Maundy Thursday 8th April – advance warning of maybe some serious flooding and allied problems in this period 8th – 14th April – which covers Easter too: Full moon; perigee, highest spring tides, rain and North Sea Surge all within the 36 hour danger period. I just write what the tried tested proven and reliable methodology here highlights – nature delivers, I try to suggest problems ahead. With this NW airstream still very active nothing can be left to chance, you had heed or ignore the warning. Forward now to April [the spring expert analysis is in the spring website entry – I will not repeat it here], from expert analysis culled from a variety of tried trusted expert opinions. The first week of April normally brings quiet uneventful weather to most districts in Britain, though it remains rather cold in northern districts, with frost at night, and this can be quiet severe in enclosed valleys and over the Scottish Lowlands generally. Mid-April tends to be unsettled, particularly the period 10 -15th April, which produces moderately stormy weather during 38 out of 50 years, with a peak day of 14th April. Prevailing winds at this time generally blow from between west and North West, and this bring heavy showers, and these affect western districts and high ground facing west coasts in particular. Some of the showers fall as hail. This unsettled weather normally acts as a decided check in the seasonal rise of temperature, for day and night temperatures are cold. Between 10 – 13th April very cold nights are frequent in London and the Home counties [Ed Note; Blackthorn winter].
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