Raf Mildenhall Visioning Study Final Draft
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RAF MILDENHALL VISIONING STUDY FINAL DRAFT PREPARED FOR FOREST HEATH DISTRICT COUNCIL WEST SUFFOLK COUNCIL AUGUST 2016 COMMERCIALLY SENSITIVE AND CONFIDENTIAL RAF MILDENHALL VISIONING STUDY TABLE OF CONTENTS Contents 1. Executive Summary 1 1.1 The Vision 1 1.2 The Need 1 1.3 The Lessons 4 1.4 The Opportunity 5 1.5 The Asks of Government 8 2. Introduction 11 2.1 RAF Mildenhall: The Story So Far 11 2.2 Scope of Report 12 3. Securing a Positive Legacy 14 3.1 The scale of the ambition 14 3.2 Local priorities and FHDC objectives for RAF Mildenhall 14 3.3 Key stakeholders 14 4. Site Baseline 16 4.1 Scale, Location and Catchment 16 4.2 Infrastructure 17 4.3 Aviation Infrastructure 19 5. Policy Status 20 5.1 National 20 5.2 Local 20 5.3 Site Specific 24 6. Precedent Case Studies 27 7. Sector Analysis – Market Assessment of Land Use and Aviation Options 38 7.1 Land Use Options – Market Assessment 38 7.2 Aviation Options 55 7.3 Strategic fit 76 8. Viability Assessment 90 8.1 Indicative development schedules 90 8.2 Viability testing 97 8.3 Viability Results 102 8.4 Development Period 103 8.5 Commercial trajectories 104 9. Interventions & Delivery 105 9.1 The need for Intervention 105 9.2 Delivery Options 105 9.3 Funding Sources 109 A PROPOSAL FOR RAF MILDENHALL VISIONING STUDY 9.4 Public Sector Response 114 10. Conclusions 116 10.1 Vision 116 10.2 Key Messages to take to the Government 117 Appendix 1 120 Issues impacting future use of RAF Mildenhall 120 Data Sources 121 Limitations 123 Appendix 2 124 SWOT Analysis 124 Appendix 3 - Occupier Sites & Competing Land Supply 125 A PROPOSAL FOR RAF Mildenhall 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.1 The Vision The following Vision has been agreed with the project stakeholders: “Forest Heath District Council (FHDC) and its partners have started intensive engagement across Government, including the Defence Infrastructure Organisation (DIO)/Homes & Communities Agency (HCA), to build consensus around a sustainable social, environmental and economic plan. Mildenhall is to be transformed into a successful mixed use, sustainable community. Royal Air Force (RAF) Mildenhall and appropriate expansion land outside the wire will grow comfortably alongside the existing communities which will benefit from improved and integrated services and public realm whilst retaining their own identities. Mildenhall will have a thriving business community that leverages the locational, physical and sectoral strengths of the site and the region. There will be room for existing local businesses to grow and we will pursue opportunities to attract inward investment in aviation and to secure occupiers attracted by the region’s existing clusters (such as agri-tech). Companies will be attracted by the region’s strengths in tourism and hospitality, its proximity - and separation - from Cambridge and the area’s exceptional quality of life. The enlarged community will have access to a range of affordable, quality housing in a range of tenures that compliments the existing stock. The number and type of new houses will be appropriate in order to meet local needs and we will work with stakeholders to explore the opportunity for new and emerging delivery models including custom build, a range of retirement living including care homes and Starter Homes. With access to jobs, as well as new social and leisure facilities including formal and informal open space, Mildenhall will be a distinctive and aspirational place to live, work, bring up a family and retire. Ours is an optimistic and ambitious vision. There will be challenges to overcome: the condition of the site; the capacity of existing services and infrastructure to accommodate new development; the economic impacts as the United States Air Force (USAF) Visiting Forces shift to RAF Lakenheath; and the investment that is needed to attract, and risk-share with, new catalytic occupiers will need to be addressed. We propose to set up a governance structure that sets the standard for future communities facing similar opportunities. We will use this structure to work collaboratively with stakeholders from across government and the private sector to find the best solutions to the challenges of delivering this vision.“ 1.2 The Need RAF Mildenhall: The Story So Far RAF Mildenhall is currently an operational airbase located on the edge of Mildenhall in West Suffolk. Previously used as an RAF station, the site now hosts the USAF. In January 2015 the US Department of Defense (USDoD) confirmed that American Forces will withdraw from RAF Mildenhall from 2022. At the same time, the USDoD announced that RAF Lakenheath is to expand with new F-35A jets and additional personnel and that it would be investing a minimum of $120 million (£80 million) in infrastructure construction at RAF Lakenheath to support the F-35A. FHDC has been notified by the DIO that a Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR16) decision on the future Cushman & Wakefield | Forest Heath District Council | 1 A PROPOSAL FOR RAF Mildenhall of RAF Mildenhall will be made by 2018. This decision will clarify, through the military Footprint Strategy, whether there is an ongoing use of RAF Mildenhall by the British Armed Forces for all or part of the site. In advance of SDSR16, the DIO has confirmed that it expects that there will be no future operational use by the RAF and that any ongoing need would be for the British Army. The DIO anticipates that under either a ‘whole closure’ or ‘partial closure’ scenario, any surplus estate would transfer to the HCA. FHDC has started an intensive engagement across government, including the DIO/HCA, to build consensus around a sustainable social, environmental and economic plan. Cushman & Wakefield has been appointed to undertake a site baseline and feasibility study in order to test a range of options for different land uses, provide external ‘challenge’ and commercial market- facing insight to ensure that the aspirations are deliverable and support the creation of our vision for the regeneration of RAF Mildenhall. The Scale of the Ambition The scale of RAF Mildenhall is significant, extending to some 440 hectares, both in absolute terms and also in the context of other site closures nationally. Achieving the full potential of RAF Mildenhall is a long term project, the impact of which will be a positive legacy for many future generations. The scale of the opportunity in comparison to the existing geography and economy of the area makes this a complex project that will require significant financial and other resources in order to unlock the site’s full potential. Local priorities and FHDC objectives for RAF Mildenhall FHDC has undertaken significant public engagement which has revealed: Opportunity to create a new identity for RAF Economic strength of Cambridge is an opportunity Mildenhall; avoid the site being mothballed and a threat; new uses must address impacts on infrastructure and public services Need for certainty, consistent announcements and proper engagement, not press speculation Any new housing must be affordable with a range of tenures; avoid being a commuter town and retain Complete the visioning and planning work in separation of Beck Row, Mildenhall and West Row advance; learn from previous case studies Use the redevelopment to address the lack of health All options to be assessed for viability; strong and retail facilities in Mildenhall support for continued aviation use if this is viable Building on the public engagement, FHDC has developed a series of principles that should guide future development of RAF Mildenhall: Support the strategic frameworks for FHDC, Take into consideration expansion to RAF Suffolk County Council, the Local Enterprise Lakenheath Partnerships and One Public Estate (OPE) Bring a significant return of investment from the Resolve any gaps or issues with local A11 upgrade infrastructure Sustainable use of the site which brings long term Create new jobs to mitigate the impact of jobs lost benefits to West Suffolk as a result of the closure Cushman & Wakefield | Forest Heath District Council | 2 A PROPOSAL FOR RAF Mildenhall These principles are reflected in the legacy objectives which have guided the assessment of options: Delivery of FHDC’s ‘principles’ Create new employment opportunities Minimise adverse impacts of closure Integrate development into existing communities Key Stakeholders FHDC are working with the DIO and the HCA as well as wider government stakeholders though OPE principles. Through these stakeholders FHDC aims to create a positive legacy for RAF Mildenhall by creating an opportunity that makes both a positive contribution to local and regional communities. Policy Planning policy in relation to the site is relatively open and will need to be developed as any masterplan comes forward over time. Infrastructure provision and the need to keep the existing settlements surrounding RAF Mildenhall as distinct entities are likely to be key determinants of policy. The need for intervention There are several factors that create a significant need for public sector intervention: Need for clarity over future use Scale of the site The likely need for support to optimise the continued use of the site for aviation Need to pursue alternative uses that have strategic fit with the legacy objectives Viability and land value capture New uses will constrain the existing infrastructure Investing for the long term The build up at RAF Lakenheath Safeguarding local businesses Cushman & Wakefield | Forest Heath District Council | 3 A PROPOSAL FOR RAF Mildenhall 1.3 The Lessons Precedent Case Studies The following themes have been identified from the nine case studies assessed to draw on best practice and lessons learned on the planning, governance and delivery of sites of a similar scale and complexity: Infrastructure and Accessibility There is a strong correlation between connectivity (accessibility by road/rail/air and data connectivity) and property market activity, occupier demand and values.