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Global Aerospace & Defence 4 May 2017 Global Equity Research Aerospace & Defense Global Aerospace & Defence The Ideas Engine series showcases Credit Suisse’s unique insights and investment ideas. THEME Research Analysts Olivier Brochet Winter is coming; structural change likely for 44 20 7888 8508 [email protected] the aerospace supply chain Robert Spingarn 212 538 1895 ■ Reducing the margin gap: In this Ideas Engine Series report, we analyse [email protected] how airframers like Airbus and Boeing can leverage technology disruptions Julian Mitchell to reduce the margin gap with their suppliers, drawing on the expertise of 212 325 6668 [email protected] Credit Suisse's global research teams across the whole aerospace supply Andre Kukhnin, CFA chain. The profit impact will be gradual but we believe it will be instrumental 44 20 7888 0350 in reducing the valuation gap, with suppliers ex aerostructures trading on [email protected] 2019E EV/EBIT of c.12.0x, while airframers trade on c.8.0x on average. This Charles Brennan CFA would expand and perpetuate the significant gap reduction that we expect 44 20 7883 4705 [email protected] over 2017-20E (see Figure 1), as airframers' earnings grow with volumes. Curt Woodworth, CFA Figure 1: Airframers' / suppliers' operating margin gap 212 325 5117 [email protected] 20.0% 20.0% 15.0% Neil Glynn, CFA 15.0% 44 20 7883 6929 10.0% [email protected] 10.0% Specialist Sales: Andrew Bell 5.0% 5.0% 44 20 7888 0479 0.0% [email protected] -5.0% 0.0% 2016 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E HOLT Specialist Contact: Kevin Paul, CFA 1999 44 20 7888 9686 [email protected] Gap suppliers / airframers - rhs Airframers (Airbus+Boeing) Engine makers (5) Suppliers (26) Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates ■ Fundamental triggers and technology enablers: In this report, we conduct a detailed analysis into how airframers are reacting to the decreasing importance of design innovation (e.g. due to reduced supplier- furnished differentiation vs Chinese competitors) and are shifting to process innovation to increase aircraft affordability, leveraging automation, 3D- printing and digitalisation. These technology disruptions may eventually reset the relationship between airframers and their suppliers and allow airframers to recapture some profits; e.g., through deep changes in contracting practices and IP usage. ■ Stock impact: Airbus (Outperform) and Boeing (Neutral, TP: US$200) should see upside to their long-term profit margins. We increase our TP on Airbus to EUR100 (from EUR76), as we expect the discount to the sector to close partially. HEICO (Outperform, TP raised to US$85 from US$76) should benefit from new avenues of growth. Thales (Outperform, TP: EUR102) and Dassault Systemes (Outperform, TP: EUR85) would benefit from digitalisation, GE (Outperform, TP: US$34) and Arconic (Restricted) appear well positioned on 3D printing, while in automation, Siemens (Neutral, TP: EUR135) seems to have the strongest position. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 4 May 2017 Table of contents Executive summary 3 Margin imbalances between airframers and suppliers at a watershed 8 Technology disruptions may help airframers reshape the balance with the supply chain 24 Consequence 1 – Disruptions to the supply chain 34 Consequence 2 – New opportunities in the supply chain 48 Consequence 3 – Long-term boost to margins and cash for the airframers 62 Airbus Group (AIR.PA) 69 Boeing (BA) 77 Heico Corp (HEI) 81 Dassault Systemes (DAST.PA) 83 Thales (TCFP.PA) 85 Arconic, Inc. (ARNC) 87 Global Aerospace & Defence 2 4 May 2017 Executive summary We believe the aerospace industry is entering the early stages of a substantial metamorphosis that will structurally alter the relationship between airframers and their suppliers, both from a profit and content perspective. In particular, we expect airframers to actively leverage technology disruptions as they try to reduce the margin gap with their suppliers. This Ideas Engine Series report looks into how this may happen and draws on the expertise of Credit Suisse's global research teams, including Aerospace & Defence, Diversified Industrials, Capital Goods, Airlines, Technology, Metals & Mining, and Oil & Gas. Figure 2: Margin gap between airframers vs suppliers Operating margins in % of revenues, including exceptionals (A+B: Airbus + Boeing) 20.0% 18.0% 16.0% 15.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 10.0% 8.0% 5.0% 6.0% 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% -5.0% 0.0% 2011 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Gap suppliers / airframers - rhs Airframers (Airbus+Boeing) Engine makers (5) Suppliers (26) Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Stocks that we think look set to benefit from these trends include Airbus (where we increase our TP to EUR100 per share from EUR76), Boeing, HEICO, Dassault Systemes, Thales, GE, Siemens and Arconic. Strategic shift in the relationship between airframers and their supply chain We expect a structural shift in the relationship between suppliers and airframers, aimed at reducing a persistent margin gap that has widened over the years in favour of the supply chain. Suppliers have benefitted from the historical business model decision made at the industry level to cut OE prices to stimulate aircraft sales and recoup them on the aftermarket. An unexpected boost has come from the consolidation of the industry (the top 10 suppliers account for over 60% of the supply chain revenues vs 10-20% in the 1980s) and the higher-than-expected success of some key programmes (over 13,000 A320s have been delivered and ordered vs an initial projection of 700), potentially leading to some excesses. We see several factors that may explain why this shift is happening now: ■ The support given by Western suppliers of engines and systems to Chinese airframers could be seen as 'subsidised' by the benefits derived from the aftermarket on Western jets to absorb the investments made in Chinese products. At the same time, the availability of the same technology to all airframers worldwide puts the competitive positions of Airbus and Boeing at risk and reduces their differentiation versus competitors. Global Aerospace & Defence 3 4 May 2017 Figure 3: New engine programmes – no longer a technology differentiator for the Western airframers Engine Original platform Airframer Derivative engine Additional platform Airframer CFMI LEAP-1A A320neo Airbus LEAP-1C C919 COMAC Pratt&Whitney PW1100G A320neo Airbus PW1400G MS21 Irkut Pratt&Whitney PW1500G CSeries Bombardier PW1900G E195-E2 Embraer Pratt&Whitney PW1200G MRJ Mitsubishi PW1700G E175-E2 Embraer Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates ■ The drop in fuel prices comes with a structural increase in the underlying oil supply, which could prolong that move. This, combined with a flattening of the aerospace technology curve (in terms of the marginal gains it can generate), reduces the relative value of fuel consumption technologies for airframers, which need to turn to other means to reduce the cost of their aircraft. Figure 4: Aircraft programme launches and oil price – the end of an oil-fuel technology wave? Year of programme launch, Brent in US$ / BBL 160 A320neo 737MAX A330neo 140 777X 120 A350 100 757 787 A340 / 80 737Classic A330 777 v2 A310 737NG 747-400 A380 60 767 777 A340 v2 A320 MD-80 40 737 A300 20 747 MD-11 0 1976 1998 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1972 1973 1974 1975 1977 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 2016 Source: Credit Suisse research ■ The availability of disruptive technologies can reshape airframers' relationships with the supply chain, with a strategic shift to affordability (from operating cost efficiency to process efficiency) as a way to reduce aircraft costs for the airlines (our airlines team believes that the pressure is set to continue increasing as global partnerships expand). It could lead to a partial disintermediation of the supply chain and airframers may look for new ways to differentiate their programmes in an environment where the supply chain technologies are less relevant and more commoditised. We also see these technologies as giving airframers a new edge in capturing some of the aftermarket profits of the sector by: 1) taking a portion for themselves; and 2) reducing the burden on the airlines, which are increasingly wielding some power to resist. Global Aerospace & Defence 4 4 May 2017 Figure 5: New platforms launched: major modifications / new systems mostly coming from supply chain Launch Platform Airframer Airframe Wing Cabin Avionics & systems Engine 2005 A350 Airbus 2007 CSeries Bombardier 2008 C919 COMAC 2008 MS-21 Irkut 2008 MRJ Mitsubishi 2010 A320neo Airbus 2011 737MAX Boeing 2013 777X Boeing 2013 E-Jet E2 Embraer 2014 A330neo Airbus Source: Credit Suisse research It may eventually lead to a fundamental reset in the relationship between airframers and their suppliers, particularly at the Tier 1 level, where the work is more integration than manufacturing. Technology disruptions as enablers of this strategic shift towards affordability We see the combination of the disruptions coming from automation, additive manufacturing and digitalisation as the enablers of this strategic shift, as they have the potential to displace the existing frontiers between airframers and suppliers and alter how they split the sector's overall profit pie.
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